Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 15 Player Prop Bets! | Top Picks, Predictions & Odds

Episode Date: December 13, 2024

Get ready for Week 15 with our top prop bet picks! Join us as we break down the best NFL prop bets for opening week, analyzing player performances, key matchups, and hidden opportunities to maximize your winnings. Whether you're betting on touchdowns, yardage, or game-changing plays, we've got the insights you need to make the smartest bets. Subscribe now and start the season with a winning edge! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan  Follow John on Twitter 👉🏼    / sloprules   Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU  

Hello and welcome to Move the Line Prop Drop Show presented by DraftKings Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan joined by my friends Connor Allen and John Hyslop. We're back to talk about the best way, the most profitable way to bet on NFL football. Some player props. We are live here 3 p.m. Eastern every Friday on the 444Bets YouTube channel. We're giving out our favorite props of week 15 and taking your questions so if you want to jump in the chat right now live on youtube do that let us know your favorite look for the week is you want our thoughts in a play anything like that join us uh every week on youtube is your best chance to get the same number same price on these props um look about a few thousand people will watch or listen to the

show we greatly appreciate that support less than half of you are subscribing to the channel or the podcast so change that hit the thumbs up it's a way to apologize for taking so long to do so we got two episodes of move the line each week in addition to prop drop our weekly preview show every wednesday 3 30 eastern on the 404 bets youtube channel sides totalsides, totals, futures, awards, all that good stuff. You can search for Move the Line wherever you listen to podcasts. You can also search HiSlop on YouTube. You want to get Slop's channel, find all the great

things he has going on. Connor, what's going on, buddy? Yeah, not a whole lot. Got in some good Twitter beef today. Otherwise, excited for a new week. Excited for another week. Unfortunately, we was on some overs on Thursday, or an over. And I think the only three overs hit, and you had one of them.

So pretty excited that one of us won because I was distraught. I don't think I've seen a game that bad in a while. At least I was at a bar, and it was a disaster. Yeah, I mean, shout out to George Kittle. Back-to-back weeks where I need him to catch his longest reception, and he does it on the first drive. Just an absolute alpha move. You know, he catches that.

The rain starts to fall. Feeling pretty good, Slop. Kind of in the heater. How are we doing, buddy? I don't know. I'm with Connor. That set football back at least a couple years. That was horrible to watch.

Put it this way, I was going to go out with my buddies. I said, you know what? I'm going to watch the first play of this game. I'm going to let that determine whether I go or not. I had Debo Samuel to catch a pass on the first drive. It was the bet of the century. It was like plus 170-something with a boost. I was ready to party.

I was dressed. I had showered. I was ready. And sure enough, the first play, Brock Purdy throws it. I mean, it wasn't the best throw. It was pretty much on Purdy. But, dude, an NFL receiver should have had that. And he drops it.

And I was like, you know what? I'm not going out. So I did not go out. And I'm glad I didn't because I couldn't imagine watching that in public. Yeah, you need to be in the privacy of your own home for that. I was actually out. I missed the good play, the Kittle play that I needed to sweat, didn't get home in time to sweat it,

and then really turned it on shortly before halftime and didn't feel like I missed anything. I feel like typically, all right, I'll have to go back. I'll rewatch that a little bit tomorrow while i do some other work and um yeah i ended up watching the end of it but uh the important piece here connor is that i don't know if you heard but um vegas knew uh vegas knew patrick in the chat shutting it out uh jason too fanduel had the script um i don't know how they knew Connor, but they knew apparently. If people have not seen this,

you can fill them in. Yeah. So there's a funny incident this morning. Well, so I guess yesterday for the Thursday night game, Fandle made a mistake. So they listed either player to score anytime touchdown score and listed like Cooper cup or Puka at plus three 50 Debo,

Samuel or Cooper cup plus three 80. So they had all these, and they listened to them as anytime touchdown scores, it was meant to be first touchdown scores. Uh, and so they quickly realized that not that quickly, a bunch of people got down on it and then they changed it to first touchdown score. So they changed it, but they didn't void any of the bets. They like let them all sit. They didn't void any of the bets. Obviously fast forward through Thursday, no one scored any touchdowns. So people like got in and they're like oh this is so sharp which it was i mean those are legit great bets like great great the books for whatever you can get like i am team pro burn your

accounts do whatever it takes i mean get it in good while you can like i'm 100 there with them but where i'm not 100 there is now you have these like cavemen like complaining about like, oh, well they should have voided everything or everything needs to be voided because no one scored a touchdown. Like books can do whatever they want. They are going to offer like one way markets on basically everything. There's no, there doesn't, I don't, I see people saying there needs to be a no touchdown market.

I actually totally disagree to be honest. I think that they, the books will list whatever they want as like one way no matter what uh and so the fact that people are complaining that it needs to be voided now because no one won to me it's just like wild that no one has self-responsibility for that so i quote tweeted it i was like obviously blasting these people and then what made it even better is you have people coming in here saying you're missing the point uh this this is my favorite tweet everyone had this game being a shootout either puka or And then what made it even better is you have people coming in here saying, you're missing the point. This is my favorite tweet. Everyone had this game being a shootout, either Puka or Nakua.

This is great. To score a shit show, minus 190. Instead, it was plus 300, implying that Vegas knew beforehand it was going to be a shit show and showed their hand early by mistake. So I read this a couple times, and I'm like, hold on. I don't even know what the dumbest part is there's so much going on here i found the dumbest part i found the dumbest part because in the replies was someone that said are we sure this game wasn't played yesterday and then aired on tape delay yeah yeah so and on the bottom thousands of people that were there leaked it correct they're fake

they were fake human beings they were like projected in the stands of madden you know like it was like that it was andrew whitworth's birthday they celebrated it a day early on the set after the facts his whole family was involved in the like the whole idea though because of fanduel so fanduel could profit the idea that you could ever keep something like that secret to like like every all these because a lot of people would have to be in on that right so like all these people are in on that and just they're all like i want to be friends with them because if i ever do something wrong like they like those best people to have they'll never tell literally i mean yeah like you couldn't convince me of any of this so like i you know i took this

as like so fanduel you're saying fanduel baited users into betting touchdown props by posting first down instead of any time and then the nfl rigged this game just so that fanduel would profit five figures like i mean because the thing is like most people were like couldn't really get down a ton on this they're getting down like I saw some people got down like 30 bucks, 50 bucks and all these, like, so I mean, again, they profited like very little. Uh, and I just think it's hilarious. I mean, it's some of these, some of the replies to you're getting wild. Um, I just, I can't believe it. I like to, to me in these days, days, like when I see people respond to this, I'm like, this is just amazing. This is great content. Um, just be smarter. Like, I don't know what else to say.

But here's the flip side is you start worrying about these people because how could you still be alive with instincts that bad? Is that the NFL calling right now? They're calling me. It's the handle actually being like, buddy, stop. But yeah, how on like could you still be alive at like 25 or so you made 25 years being that dumb without accidentally like killing yourself like walking into traffic or sticking a fork electric socket like getting struck by light something you would think would happen but they it's amazing i yeah i i wanted to reply something like that but like it's not

really my brand felt like a dickhead thing to say but i wanted to be like for the love of god do not operate a motor vehicle do not reproduce no you know they do just stay inside and three kids yeah you know bang out price pick slips um, you know, just do something different. Please, please, please, please. Yeah, they knew. They knew. And I get it, Con. I'm with you, too.

Because, like, we saw it. There was a no touchdown bet available. It might not have been in the same market, in the same drop-down menu. But, like, no touchdown was an offer available by FanDuel. Does it have to be in the same like slip to be i don't know it's it's available like people that want bets voided because someone got hurt right away like under is an option right you like you chose to take the over that's part of the inherent risk of taking the over you know it's just it's so maddening that there's just this it's you know

again as one of the two boomers in the group um it's just this like or our names are all jacked up by the way um I used to be Connor I was gonna say the most like controversial stuff yeah but yeah I just think it's so crazy there's just this entitlement for everyone to get their way. It's bad, bro, and I'm sad. I hate it. I don't know if it's an age thing. I don't think so. I think it's an intelligence thing. I just think people just don't get it.

They don't get it. But it is what it is. I think we should just make a bunch of bets today. Somebody said in the comments, it's awesome, Chris Carlton, tell those people to play Dfs play the long game and take their money that's that's smart like yeah that's that's how you do it right there because i i'll i'll never understand i hate it when they say vegas that's another thing that's so far it's not even you heard your grandfather say that

one day and like you just keep saying it now because like it's not ve – you heard your grandfather say that one day and you just keep saying it now because it's not Vegas anymore, guys. It's out of Vegas now. Odds don't even come from Vegas, one. Two, these companies don't operate jointly. You think FanDuel earnings – FanDuel is happy if DraftKings loses money. Yes, you want them to. It's so baffling how –, oh, it's crazy, bro. But I mean, what are you going to do?

Do I believe that in one day and age, maybe in like the 1950s, that like small-time college basketball games might have been rigged for money? Sure, of course. I'm sure it has happened. But like in today's day and age, like it is just so, so, so unlikely. And then beyond that, that like sports books would be involved in that just to turn like a small profit. Like they're collecting plenty on your same game parlays. Go look at the FanDuel earnings report. I mean, they are printing off

those anyways. So, um, I mean, yeah. Yeah. I mean, Connor knows I referenced this all time. Shout out to George Carlin, all time, uh you know wordsmith comedian think about how stupid the average person is and just remember half of them are stupider than that um this was a great indication of that we were just like that's scary these people are you know again i'm sitting on our perches of us being smarter than everyone else in these moments i feel pretty damn good that we're okay like i'll admit i'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer. So, like, that's why I get so nervous when I see other people that are, like, way worse. Like, oh, dude, like, how are you still alive?

Like, holy shit. Like, let me shake your hand because that's impressive. Because I feel like I should have been dead by now just by doing dumb shit. I couldn't imagine being even stupider. It's unbelievable. Oh, so good. Yeah, we definitely aren't the smartest people in the room. There's plenty of smarter people on Twitter.

We're just here to tell those people that they're being really extra dumb today. That's crazy. They're going to get this taken away from us for being too dumb. I'm serious, dude. It's possible. I watch the anti-gambling videos and i'm like no no one's that dumb and then i read the comments i'm like oh shit dude what if they are like they just take it away because like because people are too stupid to bet like that's not like we got to help these people

out yeah let's do that today and we can still win well you know of course at the end we'll build a you know eight like a million dollar parlay but that's okay in the middle we're gonna give you a bunch of really good stuff i think it's okay so i will be i want to be clear like i think it's okay to have fun and i think it is okay to put a couple of bucks on something when it's like point one of your unit size whatever you're making and understanding that i think that 99 of x people should actually just treat this as entertainment like it should not be a money-making opportunity it's not for me like hey i'm paying ten dollars And understanding that I think that 99% of people should actually just treat this as entertainment. Like it should not be a money-making opportunity.

It should just be like, hey, I'm paying $10 to watch the same game, parlay and watch this game instead of paying $15 to go to a movie or like $15 to go to a bowling alley. Like that, in my opinion, is a – well, no. Okay. I don't know. I'm just kidding. But like that, in my opinion, should just be an entertainment expense. You shouldn't be dropping thousands if you don't know what you're doing. So, no, I always thought that that gambling is legitimately the apex predator of entertainment. There is nothing more I'd rather do. Like if you said, Hey, what do you want to do tonight? I would be like, Hey, let's throw some cash on this game

and watch it play out. Like that's literally like how I how I want to – that's what I want to do forever. I'm dead serious. I could do that literally every night of the week. I could because it's fun. We do. And I do. Yeah. But, I mean, at the same time, it's not really a money-making venture.

Even though money is made, that's not what it's for, man. I agree. Head over to Connor's Twitter account. You can find the thread that's in reference here. Enjoy yourself in the comment section. It's a wild place. It does not make you feel good about the average depth of thought for the humankind here.

But interesting nonetheless. That's just the worst among us are the people that lose and demand a refund yeah people are yeah he gets it and magic also makes another great point here so there's just lots of different ways to entertain yourself it's a valid point so you know might be better for your health too i mean i haven't seen the studies yet but um yeah i'm pulling for sgps we'll get there soon we need a little bit more of a runway to get uh some larger sample sizes and that stuff so yeah all right folks if you want more of our action best way for you to do that right now is through our friends over at rebat rebat is a sweepstakes app with a sports book. I don't really know how else to describe the current landscape that we're in, but it has a prop

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four weeks in the regular season, all the way through the playoffs and Super Bowl. So plenty of time to take advantage. Again, download ReBet, promo code High Slop, a month of 4-4, a month of High Slops Dub Club. All right. ReBet's actually good, just so you know. It is very, very good. There's a lot of bullshit books out there that show up out of nowhere, right?

Rebet, I like it. I'm a rebet guy now. I'm thinking about getting one of their shirts. Oh, yeah? I love that. I might not get a shirt. I'll play on the app. But I might get the shirt.

The colors are kind of sweet. They're growing on me. Okay. get a shirt i'll play on the app but i might get the shirt too the colors are kind of sweet they're growing on me okay you know like black and and fire orange or something yeah it's not i mean it's kind of like i don't know i don't know how to feel about it because i'm not really an orange guy you know what i mean like you can pull it off though i think i could maybe in the right lighting hey and you get the 10 bucks you obviously can use that to play. They'll first deposit match, I think, up to $100, $150, one of those. You can reach out to us directly. But again, all you need to do to access the deal is $10. Again, and that's $10 you can play on the site.

Great, great deal. So week 15, bud. Connor, get us started. Live lines, no stale bread. All things available for the folks to bet on right now, your first play of the week. Yeah, so I'm not going to lie. Probably going to piss slop off after that nice little fun segment there.

We're going to two straight unders here. So we'll start with the first one. We're going to go with Russell Wilson under 199.5, 197 on FanDuel, 196 Caesars, 201 MGM. I mean, they're going to be there without George Pickens, almost certainly again. Tough match against the Eagles. Last week against the Browns, who were like 18th in success rate and drop back and everything.

I mean, he looked terrible. He had completed 15 of 26 passes, 57% completion rate for 158 yards. Now draws the Eagles, who have actually held six of their nine quarterbacks since the bye under 191 passing yards, which is pretty wild. The only ones to go over that, Joe Burrow lamar jackson matthew stafford i don't think that a russell wilson without like uh george pickens is able to to really go over here um like it would take just a substantial amount of volume but i really think that both sides here like are just going to run the ball a ton so like there's gonna be really low volume in general the eagles offense

honestly hasn't really been like good enough to i think think, blow them out to put the Steelers in like a, Oh, Russ needs to throw the ball like 40 times. You know what I mean? Um, so I think we're probably gonna see relatively low volume, maybe 150 yard game, 160 yard game. Again, if he gets the volume, maybe even a hundred yard game, if like he doesn't have volume and it's close to the end. So, um, I think this, this 200 number almost implies that the Eagles are going to like drop 30 on him. And like Russ has to throw the entire game. Don't hate it.

This is almost the second time, you know, in like five, four or five hours that you've sold me on an under slop. Would you take the over though? Oh no, this is I'm, I'm fine with this.

This is like an over on how bad Russ is. You know what I mean? It is. Yeah. I'm good with that. Like is, I'm fine with this. This is like an over on how bad Russ is. You know what I mean? It is, yeah. So, like, I'm good with that. Like, I'm not, I don't know if you know that, I'm not the biggest Russ guy. Like, I mean, I don't, like, actively not root for people, but, like, he's one I'm just like, oh, God, that guy.

You know what I mean? Like, it's just like, when you have to bet on him, it just sucks, like, when it's the right move. Yeah. It's not fun to have Russ. Even when you win, you almost kind of want to give the money back. Yeah, he is fairly insufferable. He honestly played way better than I thought he was going to so far.

After last week, I'm partially thinking that that had more to do with George Pickens than it has to do with Russell Wilson. I mean, the moon balls were just not on the – they were way out of bounds. They were just not in the same stratosphere. It looks like Mike Williams was lost. So I don't know. I think that the receiver, I think, honestly kind of made Ross,

at least for the first four or five games, in easier matchups. Now it's just like way different. Yeah, the ability to track and bring in the moon ball in a's just like way different so yeah yeah the ability to track and bring in the moon ball in a contested catch way like those things are that's a skill you know it is you can't just replicate with calvin austin or you know mike williams and put him in there and think oh okay he's just going to get those targets now like we're discrediting picking skill to be able to track that ball while covered down the field so yeah i think it's a i think it's a good look.

Very interested to see how that game plays out just from a volume standpoint, both the way those teams have kind of dominated time and possession. Like I'm trying to figure out in my mind how to play some tackles that I like in that game because I think some of the season-long numbers don't track the way I want them to. But, yeah, I think I like that look quite a bit. Slop, floor is yours, buddy. First play.

Let's go J-Mo, 100-plus. That draft change right now for, I believe, plus 600. Guys, he's getting 100-plus. I mean, I don't know how many times he's done that this season. Not that many, but they don't really need him to a lot of times. But this time, I think they're going to need him to. Son God, he's going to get his. But I think this is going to be a wild, wild game.

Or has the potential to be a wild, wild game. I don't know what else to say about it. I mean, they just gave up. The Bills did a lot to Puka and Cooper Cup. So two guys could get 100 plus in these dudes it's not that's not a thing plus the bills they could score fast on you i mean i don't know like i don't know what to expect total wise i mean it's at it's too high do you want me to take the over really just because it's just what it's like 55 isn't it something like that yeah it's a healthy total the only way to get a piece of that really is to take some receivers.

But, man, I think it's J-Mo time. Like, he's been targeted seven times, at least seven times, in each of the last three games. I mean, they go to him. He's the guy. So we'll see what happens. He's seeing way more short stuff. Yeah, I don't like that, but he can break it.

Right. Well, I mean, just the more he gets the ball in his hands i think is great i'll literally underdog tweet out george pickens ruled out for week 15 uh right now so shout out to us for the timing there um because i'm sure that russ's thing will probably go down for sure now noon i know you had some some defensive notes on this play as well yeah i mean in that game last game uh late in that game rasul douglas got dinged up he's already been ruled out and rasul douglas is good uh but good enough where i think he matters and in his spot is a jamarcus ingram an undrafted free agent out of um out of buffalo who we looked up as raz uh my guy is not not an elite athlete um not not super fast and he's gonna have a real hard time

tracking with jamo here so um longest alts all these things i think start to make a ton of sense for our boy here in a just a matchup that i think got just significantly softer here in the last couple hours so also i i should know because i don't want to talk about this in my next pick, is five-plus receptions for J-Mo, not crazy. A few weeks ago, I would have thought that was kind of crazy just because he's definitely a yards guy. But his number for five-plus is like 152 at Vandal right now, which is plus 152, which I think is way too high.

Like that is very, very generous, you know, price-wise for a guy who, like I said, I mean, like Connor's point, like he has been targeted short. They're not just throwing like the moon balls to him. Like he gets kind of everything. You just want to hope he doesn't get kicked out of the game or something like that. He threw the ball right in that guy's face that one day. I don't think they really saw it.

They saw it, but I don't know if they totally caught that. I mean, he hit that kid right in the face. That was awesome. But I mean, I don't think it was his fault, but just saying.

It's Tyreek Stevenson too. Seems like a guy that kind of deserves to get hit in the face every once in a while with the ball. Oh, yeah. He should have been standing there. Yeah, he shouldn't have been standing there. What was he doing? On his own sideline.

Yeah. I like it. I thought we were going to be featured in the Millie Parlay. We'll make a case for that for sure. I'm probably going to feature his longest in my longest parlay. Yeah. He's just, it's nice.

Longest. What's that slot? Monotones here. What's up, buddy? Monotones the man. Yeah. I like that guy.

Sharp guy. Yeah. We had what? Already two dual joint plays this week? Me, Noonan, and Monotone. I don't think that's ever happened all season, so you know it's going to be an awesome week. You and Stu were cooking last week, 3-0 on dual Noonan-Monotone plays. I mean, that's electric, so.

Hard to beat that. Yeah. Iron sharpening iron this year. We're definitely just getting better by spending more time talking to the people that aren't in the comment section of the touchdown bet just with my friends here which makes i don't know seems to make a ton of sense seems to be working uh all right first one for me um again just trying to branch out a little bit off brand plays here and there occasionally but no actually this is this is my niche now i love this i love

this area um and i love this one so surprise slop who do you think gives up the highest rate of explosive pass plays in the league so far this season. What team? Houston. It's the Chicago Bears. I was hoping. It's very surprising. Yeah, Houston would work too, right? You can get some of those Dolphins guys to get off the schneid a little bit.

Jordan Addison, longest reception, over 22 and a half yards. This is Caesars, DraftKings, MGM. It's 23 and a half on Fandle. He's probably going to try to get the other ones if he can. He's just continuing to take on a larger role in the offense. Really slow start to the year. 20% target share in six of his first. Uh-oh.

Did we lose, Nina? During that time as well, at least 126. What that we got we lost you but i think you're backing up over here you're doing the back to the future thing where you're like fading away and then you come back we can hear you now you're good let's go oh pretty good all season here i don't know what we're doing great anyway he's gonna do well longest reception uh uh air yards target share uh bears have been giving them up 26 and a half percent explosive play rate pass rate over the last five weeks uh they are 31st in past edvoa against wide receiver twos uh absolutely electric spot for addison to continue his longest reception streak here over 22 and a half there. Connor, what do you think?

I like it. I mean, what did he put up a buck 50 against the bears last time? I mean, he was just destroying them downfield. Um, I, I worry about this bears team a little bit. So, um, I mean, I, I honestly kind of have stayed away just because of that game. And I'm like, you know, after I felt so good about the Bears in negative game script the entire time, put them 32 pass attempts, they ran 48 plays because they couldn't get like a single first down. I mean, yeah, I have no complaints against the longest reception here.

Because again, if he's going to get it, he's just been, they've been targeting him so deep so much now, especially with like Hawkinson back and Justin eaton um like he's just always open there's a guy that we were looking at in the like uncorrelated market but i don't even think we can do it anymore because he's getting so many targets too so slop any thoughts it's a monday game and i apologize i know you don't typically guys monday games this week i actually thought about you today because i looked into the monday game i'm a big um I'm a big Vikings guy. I like to go against them with receivers. And so I looked into that.

And, yeah, no, that game looks to be like that might be the fun game because there's two games, right? So I'm probably watching that one. Raiders Falcons. Full attention on that one. Yeah, Raiders Falcons not quite as hot. Yeah, we'll flip back and forth. If I find something, we'll flip.

But I'm thinking it's definitely going to be Bears-Valcans. Yeah. Richard likes the longest market. Yeah, I mean, I don't know. I'm loving it right now. Got a card full of them. So ready to continue to cook. All right, Connor, back to you.

I think we got another under coming in here. Yeah, you're just in the groove. Yeah, we're going to go back to you i think we got another under coming in here yeah you're just in the groove um yeah we're gonna go back to the bills uh lions game here i'm going with james cook under 51 and a half rushing yards best odds at fan duel 50 and a half dk um we obviously played an over against them last week with josh jacobs um they're getting their basically their whole defensive lineback dan campbell said today uh pascal dj reader elaine mcneil likely all to play um they've played in all but two games together in those 11 games just four running backs over 50 rushing yards they make number one rushing success rate allowed in those games um and the coaching staff this week mentioned or the bills coaching staff

mentioned using ray davis earlier in the game coach being coach speak index had a great note here ray davis should be getting the coach said, Ray Davis should be getting touches and he should be getting carries. I think his first carry was at play 31 and that can't happen. He's too good of a running back to not get some touches. So in my mind, they're probably going to script up one or two game plays for him, at least in the first 15, which is like normally when 15 to 20 for coaches like game scripts there. So I mean, any touches for a Davis and I think we're in a good spot here. Um, and even not like their underdogs against the lion scene.

It's very potent. We've seen other big games this year. Like Josh Allen basically just like takes over. Like if they fall behind at all, it just becomes Josh Allen scrambles. Josh Allen runs, Josh Allen rolling out and chucking the ball downfield. Like he doesn't really play around with just the running,

the running game anymore. So, um, I thought 51 yards is, you know, a little bit rich here for a guy like James Cook, who honestly, I mean, he's been kind of off and on this year too. Any tough matchup he's faced basically when they've been like even or like dogs, he hasn't really played all that well. So I like the under here.

I know we played an over, but I think those matchups are just like completely different as well. We played Josh Allen rushing over a little bit before. Totally different thoughts there uh slop would you play the over um i muted him when i heard under so i didn't hear what he said yeah now that's um that fits right in line with how i had this game going like i i don't it's not the bills running back so i'll tell you like also to tommy g the great tommy g is on josh allen's rushing over we're talking about that this morning and i love that i like it just it it makes sense because the they're not going to run the ball i'm pretty

sure they're not going to run the ball period so the fact that he's going to be split in time with davis that's that's a problem and, they could easily fall behind in this game. I'm not saying they're going to. The range of outcomes in this thing is absurd. I mean, but I think it all kind of goes into the pass game for both teams, really. Well, not necessarily the Lions as much as the Bills. I'm sorry. I just have a hard time believing that Bill's defense at this point, without result douglas and like i mean their defense has gotten got run on a lot of the

year like the lions i think probably are pretty efficient offensively especially not outside um you know that's obviously important too so like i think they're going to score and if they're scoring plenty like the bills are probably just gonna have to be in catch-up mode for a lot of the game here um and if they're not then i would be Bills are probably just going to have to be in catch-up mode for a lot of the game here. And if they're not, then I would be – again, I would just be surprised if the Lions at some point are not leading this game. Yeah. I think the Bills could actually score points all over the Lions at some point too. Not on the ground though. Do you – so like we just don't – it's one of those where if you even – even if you have Allen's passing overs,

you might get hurt kind of bad when he takes off running for 20 yards a clip because that that could start happening too i mean it's this game could get wild oh yeah yes connor said too or with tommy g we played over on alan's rushing yards i think again completely off brand you guys might find this surprising. I think longest rush for Josh Allen, also very viable. It's like 12 and a half. Yeah, that's gold. Yeah, just, again, man, the whole element, right? They play a ton of man. They have to blitz to generate pressure.

You flush that big Superman out of the pocket. It's not like 12 and a half for him. It's just a couple steps out on the sideline, and he's fine, right? It's not even like a four. We're not talking about a 40-yard rush. He's very, very, very good you do you do those for quarterbacks is the question i actually love them for quarterbacks okay okay because then i don't i don't get punished for like the short ones or the what could have been a sack that gets ruled as a

rushing attempt and it's like negative three yards like so those take it out of it so i really like i really like doing them for quarterbacks, actually. Good. Yeah. Like it quite a bit. All right, yeah, I like that angle, Connor. I thought we might see that one on the show because I know you've been talking about it today.

So, Slop, what do you got, buddy? I'm going to go Tyreek Hill, 100 plus receiving yards, plus 250. Dude, we used to have to, like, sell a kit or something to get. Like, that's great. 250 plus 250 for 100 yards. Dude, this used to be, like, minus 250. Like, you would never get this, ever. And then all of a sudden, here we are.

But here's the thing. It makes sense why we're here. He hadn't played with two of that much this season I mean they've had games but not games against the right kind of opponents you know what I mean like he he was with Skyler Thompson for half the season so none of that counts for Tyreek Hill he had 100 yards last week caught 10 balls this week Dave that Houston team is a very good matchup for wide receivers, especially since they're going to score in Miami. I promise that. So how do you get back?

You know what I mean? What you're going to have to do is throw the ball. Dude, Tyreek does not look slow. He does not look like he's washed. He doesn't look anything. He looks good. So to only have to get 100 when, man, he's a 50-plus anytime he touches the ball. So I'll take that.

I think that we're going to get back to the, you know what I'm saying, like minus money for 95 and a half yards for Tyreek Hill. I really think we're getting back to that soon, but not this week. It does feel different. I know we've had some internal discussions around some some of these things too like even like the waddle props it's like man it's like three and a half receptions this is i mean these guys were like routinely six and a half seven and a half maybe laying juice on seven and a half receptions for tyreek so i don't know really

what's changed too much i mean houston's actually been awesome against tight ends as well. So maybe that also helps us here where they actually maybe funnel outside of, of John Smith, uh, start to get the wide receivers back in the mix. Connor, what are your thoughts here? Yeah, I played some Tyreek alts just like for fun last week. Um, I think I included in like my, uh, I usually drop like some random old parlay in the discord, um, dropped it in there. I like, I totally agree. And what's crazy too is we actually haven't even gotten like a a vintage like tyreek bomb you know what i mean like he's had he's been doing it on like 15 to 20 yarders like and then maybe a couple like 5 10 yarders uh like the big plays big plays and air quotes here are like again like 15 25 yarder uh

he hasn't had like a 50 or 60-yarder in a minute. And so I think he's – I don't know if do is the right word, but it's coming. Something's got to be breaking here soon. I mean, I just don't know if Tua can throw that far, but at some point he's just going to get open and rip one. Man, you're dunking on Tua? I hate Tua, huh?

I love Tua. Connor loves Tua. That's what's so weird. I mean, I do love Tua, but, I mean, he throws the ball, like, so soft. Like, he might have the worst arm in the league. Catchable ball. He's just throwing a catchable ball. Yep. He's doing it on purpose.

He could throw it harder if he wanted to, probably. Just laying it in there. Six teams in the NFL have given up more receiving yards to the Texans on the season. Like that's kind of a weird stat because I didn't really expect to see them up there. You know what's crazy too is they've actually allowed one of the lowest completion rates in the league, if not the lowest.

That's even better. But they've fixed most yards, which is wild. Even better. Kind of beat up on the secondary tackle you think you know what i mean like what is that you know i'm saying you ever think of those numbers and think like what does that actually mean like yeah i don't know to be honest i i don't know they have some young guys in the secondary um you know bullock and and lassiter are pretty young jalen petrie's now out for a while too

So they're kind of beat up I don't hate it at all You're getting historically Softest numbers on Tyreek that we've ever really had So yeah I like the look I thought we might get that You kind of teased it earlier when I was asking you for the Bears look

Trying to set it up Alright good stuff Alright Don't fix it let's go back to the well trying to set it up. All right, good stuff. All right, don't fix it. Let's go back to the well. This is one I hit on last week. Some of the guys, George Kittle, he cashes this like a gentleman in the first quarter, but what happens

is you get some of these guys that want to cash these longest receptions maybe in the third quarter or the fourth quarter. What it does is someone who's sweating these bets, I get time to enjoy them. If everyone it does is, you know, someone who's sweating these bets, I get time to enjoy them, right? If everyone cashes at the same time, then, yeah, I don't get to feel the rush of the win. And Calvin Ridley last week, really nice guy,

waited until the last drive to cash his over longest reception, like a 30-plus yarder. We're going back to the well. Over 24.5, longest reception for calvin ridley against the bangles who were absolutely decimated in the secondary dax hill been gone for several weeks they tried to bench cam taylor brit uh because he was playing so poorly then they lost dj turner for the year so they had to bring cam taylor brit back into the lineup over the last five weeks since he allowing the second highest rate of explosive pass plays in the league uh tick under 21 percent

calvin will be kind of the only show in town for the titans passing game we're getting some positive coach speech index stuff on will levis who again like whatever you think of will levis he's gonna have to be dropping back and keeping up here against this bangles offense that can cook right we know bangles basically if you can show a pulse on the other side you're gonna have some high outcomes some ceiling outcomes for the opposite team just because they they force you to kind of play catch up so really over 24 and a half longest keep it going here go back to the well connor what are your thoughts no i i like that um i the coach speak index point was my only addition there so i think it makes makes a ton of sense like they're they're basically just a full evaluation mode of will levis. Seeing what he's got.

Pollard is beat up. Didn't practice twice this week, three times this week, but listed as questionable, and then the team just said he's expected to play. I'm not going to derail this conversation too far, but there's three guys that I've speculatively played unders on that we can talk about after this, but yeah, the Ridley play I think is pretty solid.

Yeah. It just takes one you know that's what the whole game just get the one you're done you know i didn't have to suffer that whole thursday night football game because i got the one right away so it's what your other bets later that's brutal just start betting nba on those standalone days i know i'm hoping on the nfl calendar i was trying to work on some nba stuff it just is too busy to get there maybe i'll circle back when we slow down on the football side but then you know golf picks up for me so it's it's it's hard we'll figure it out i have to just tell you just get in the dub club and you know first quarter baby you know where slops yeah you're crushing those right those are fun man it's just so fun yeah Yeah, that's a fun way to get down. I like these derivatives.

I think that you can find opportunities there that maybe not be – they're not priced as well. They're not used to having to properly account for it like they are with everything else. Not to go too far off, there's guys that literally play 15 minutes in a game. They play eight minutes in the first quarter. It's just like dude you so if he scores you win like this is so dumb like they're gonna fix it but it's fun to do now

all right gentlemen let's uh we got 20 minutes to go uh get a little wonky here start building some uh some parlays connor i don't know if you've already started or uh we're going fanduel we're going caesars What are we doing here? I was just going to do Caesars just because it was easiest. But, well, the issue is I had two unders. You had two longest. So all we got in our parlay right now is slop. Real quick, though, Tony Pollard is still lined at 64.5 rushing yards.

I think that's too high, even a good matchup. If, I mean, you didn't practice all week. I think we probably see more Tajay Spears, Jordan Aikens. I think there's still some lines up. David and Joku might play. He's saying he is going to play. Yeah. So, I mean, there should be no lines for him. Even then, his line was like 26 and a half.

And then Brees hall is randomly expected to play now i smashed some braylon allen unders there might still be some stale lines on those there's like 51 um i think isaiah davis unders are probably fine as well um i mean they probably he probably doesn't like full workhorse but all those are like viable unders i think and if they play then i think you're just in a great spot so this is the time of year where guys like taking advantage of injury uncertainty is great. Just bang a bunch of unders. You're probably gonna be right more often than not.

Always the chance for you to be way wrong. But I mean, you know, it, it usually is positive over time. Yeah. Long game. You said that in Joker was saying he's going to play. Yeah. I saw that on Twitter right before he came on, so I was going to give out or think about that other guy.

I think I kind of look a lot like him with the helmet on. I'm like, buddy, what are you doing with the hair? Every time you catch the ball, I'm like, no, it's not Njoku. It's the other Njoku. Akins, right? Yeah. So I got Jamison 100 plus and then Tyreek 100 plus on there right now.

Do we want... I mean, Tyreek's only plus 235. Jamison 100 plus is plus 575, so we might not even need to go that high if we don't want to, but... Or we just bump up Tyreek. I don't know what you guys are feeling. I mean, both both those are hidden all right well then we'll leave it you know that's fine um noonan any anywhere you want to go i i talked about some alts that i liked uh yesterday on

the dub club tv thing with dalton but uh i've unlimited amounts of all that I could talk about at this point. So, yeah. What do we, I mean, we all kind of think the lions have success running the football. Is there anything there that we think is ceiling outcomes for, for those guys?

I mean, it's probably what 12, 13 yard gap between Gibbs and Montgomery. It's obviously going to give us a better price on Montgomery. Gibbs? Yeah, I'm always Gibbs over Montgomery almost every time. That could help the JMO number a little bit. True.

Yeah, I mean, we're seeing 57.5 at Caesars for Montgomery. 67.5 for Gibbs. Like I think both probably see 12 to 17 carries. I don't know which is going to be 17 and whichever one does, that's the right answer. Um, all right. We'll table it in case we need something else. I just, that's what it's on my list. And I'm just, this is basically the conversations I had internally with myself.

I'm looking at game logs and trying to get a sense of why. It's just hard. How about James Winston? Yeah. I mean, that's another Tommy G special. He was on the Thunderdome this morning. He loves it. He's got the browns winning that game wow i mean here see tommy says that since the bills probably will lose the lions they can they can let the chiefs lose this week oh the script writers is that what it is yeah yeah

gotcha okay and hey not to hijack, but just what we were talking about. I was looking on Twitter. I wasn't on Twitter to hang out. I was on Twitter to see if I could find out where Njoku said this. Like, was that on Underdog? Instead, the first tweet that pops up, NFL is rigged. Players aren't performing because the sportsbooks don't want to lose money. So they partner with the leagues to let players know what to do

and what not to do. It's so obvious. Week after week, game after game, there's always something. Never had a clean week. This is scary, bro. It is scary to think of how stupid you have to be to think this do you know what i'm saying like it's scary it's unbelievable and this guy follows me too so sorry about that the real i don't even know what your name is dude that's the risler i'm sorry the risler follows you

what's up crazy was you say it was the risler tweeting about me? The real SK. My bad. The real SK. I love you, bro. But, bro, talk to somebody, man. Talk to somebody. DM me, dude. Come on, man. But, yeah.

But, yeah. So, back to whatever we were talking about. Please let me pass the game. Damn, Jason. My brain hurt reading that. Like I said, I was was literally like where's the joke i'm like wait what did that say you know what i mean 100 150 miles an hour sustained winds in cleveland they shouldn't be playing that football game yeah i don't know they're gonna

play this game if that's true um i feel like that's a record that'd be that'd be basically the weather guys have taken major l's recently i'm not gonna lie not you know to be fair i have not taken any weather stands recently that have been that bad uh obviously thursday was pretty shitty considering it was pouring rain the entire first half uh i'm seeing 16 mile per hour winds likely rain showers in my mind that doesn't really matter that much for james winston that being said we can probably get a better price on james closer to game time if the you know the concerns keep going so that's good for the purpose of this parlay i'm still fine throwing it in because i think there's gonna be a

ton of volume chiefs are past funnel like in joku could play would be a bonus i'm not sure that matters i mean the chiefs allowed a ton of yards to like bryce young and a bunch of other people recently so um i don't think that i mean, Herbert would have thrown for whatever, 300 if he had McConkie. So I'm not too worried. I just think we're going to get a ton of volume. So we can do attempts. Well, actually, it only lets you alt attempts. Now, it only lets you alt completions or yards.

I mean, 300 is plus 370. 275 is plus 205 plus 205 i mean that's like 275 is not even that much like that's a normal james game yep i think he gets i think he has to get that i don't think they can run i don't either i i debated taking some nick chubb unders honestly been real close but uh i've been not very good with that backfield i think i'm like oh for oh and four maybe maybe one for four i hit one drone ford one oh yeah ford burned yeah last week yeah yeah i get it yeah well they just made like i don't like what happened it was so weird in joku i would love to have some in joku action. I mean, 30 targets in the last two weeks, 30 targets and like balance.

Not like there was one 27, you know, target game. Like we're talking about like, you know, 13 and 17 or something crazy, just, you know, insane,

insane target share, especially with Tillman on the lineup. And then, you know, chiefs against tight ends have been hemorrhaging all season. Just they invite you to throw there. They rally and tackle you. So, yeah, I'm good with some of the James.

I mean, 275 for what? Plus two what? Plus 205 for 275. I got another one here, too, just I didn't see. Michael Woods. You got any Michael Woods interest or Elijah Moore? I mean, Michael Woods is listed at 21 and a half. This guy's running around on like 80% of like 84% route rate last week.

I don't know about Michael Woods. I didn't know who he was prior to two weeks ago. There's no Tillman, right? There's no, yeah. Tillman's out. Like for some reason, this guy always just seems to pop up 43 yards into Broncos. I mean, he only had 12 yards against the Steelers, but that was kind of like a down Jameis game. You know, that was like a little bit of a bad spot i think this one's a

little bit better i don't know do we do we know anything about this guy sixth round pick in 2022 went to arkansas like i don't know dude whoopin suey bud i don't know anything about him but it's a pretty low threshold for him. I mean, it's 20 yards, but I don't know if he'd run all Mikey trees. He ran a four, five, five. That's pretty shitty. That's I mean, that's pretty slow, but was he good in college? Not really.

All right, maybe I'm out. We'll just stick with James. He's a late bloomer. Oh, he's fine. Late bloomer. Late bloomer. Yeah. What about – you're speaking of just like horrible bets.

Daniel Bellinger ties in for the Giants. Newton loves that guy. You bet him last week. Yeah, I mean, it's... I've done dumber things with money. I don't think there's anything out last I knew. I think just touchdown bets. That was one of the

plays Monotone and I were on last week and very comfortable going back to the well because... It's Tommy time, dude. Tommy time against the Ravens. Yep. Touchdown, Tommy. Tommy time against the Ravens. Yep. Touchdown, Tommy.

What do we think about this look from Monotone here? Parker Washington, 50-plus. Sauce on Brian Thomas Jr., no Ingram. I think sauce is kind of cooked, but I think having some more attention on Brian Thomas is maybe interesting. I'd do it. He went 100-plus last week, last week right i mean it was in mac jones loved him too threw to him like 10 times like a couple weeks ago so

i can see doing that i don't think it's that crazy no we're seeing i'm seeing on caesar's they're building there plus 290 for 50 plus i mean 50 receiving yards that's not that many that's not bad i don't i don't mind it but i mean we can always remove it if we don't need it i would just i almost i don't mind it i'd almost just prefer just give me 100 with the dude who's getting just all the work brian thomas the sauce stuff i dug into it Or both It's just not happening dude One of my sauce notes I love this by the way we don't call him sauce anymore Ahmed is his name or Ahmad is his name

He needs to get his sauce back That's so good It's true It's His rookie year was his best year by far His rookie year He allowed a negative 6.8% catch rate above expectation. It's negative 6.8.

This year, it's plus 8.9. Massive swing. So above expectation, he's allowing, you know, 9% more receptions. EPA allowed as a rookie, negative 28.8. This year, plus 25.8. so we're talking about these massive swings of like you're the best corner in the league versus you're below average at a bunch of stuff so um and now you get you know thomas without kirk he's in the slot more you've seen thomas playing the slot like over 30 the last couple games so he's gonna miss sauce either way so

even if this is like small sample variance on sauce like yeah i mean i don't know btj stuff is i'm very much into i don't i don't mind this because the bar is lower for parker washington but yeah 72 percent air yard share for thomas last week like i think 10 targets in the second half i think actually both could get there i'm not yeah no i disagree this is like i mean a pretty narrow target tree at this point like it's i mean i guess brenton strange is the only other guy there um like we've seen the jets like the last couple weeks like aaron rogers just throws the ball like every play which just pumps play volume for both sides because he just throws these like short plays and so i don't know yeah and then here you go i don't think the jets got a quarterback

pressure last week. I mean, yeah, that obviously that matters a lot for Mac Jones who, you know, just shrivels up into a little, little cupcake, you know,

when he's under pressure. So I think both are fine. If we want to go Brian Thomas, I'm not, I'm not opposed to that either, to be honest, but yeah, slop,

you can be the tiebreaker if you want, you want park or BTJ? Both. Should we just be taking Mac Jones? All smack Jones, 300 plus. I mean, 10 to one for 300 plus.

I mean, two 75 is five to one plus two 50 is plus two 75. I mean, two 50 would be-1. Plus 250 is plus 275. I mean, 250 would be fun. 250 is good. I think he can get that. I would say, though, Brian Thomas. All right. Let's do – I'll go Brian Thomas, and that's fine.

That way, you know what I'm saying, we get around going two nuts. Yeah. 100 plus Brian Thomas. Plus 340. That guy played the worst game of football two weeks ago. We bet on him and then just ripped off like a 56 yarder on a drag route. Um, and then still ended up hitting alts because I need to put a calendar,

like a reminder in your calendar to like draft as much Brian Thomas jr. And fantasy football next year. I don't know how high he's going to go. It should be like a second round pick. If he's not a second round pick, like you just need to draft the Skybury. Guy's a baller. Just is abysmal quarterback play. Anyways.

Size, speed, adjusted score stuff is bonkers. Like, yeah. Be long on BTG. Yeah. What do we feel about the squeaky wheel narrative didn't go so well last night? How do we feel about the squeaky wheel narrative in Philadelphia? I can't do it but okay well yeah there's just not enough volume

like that's what i like yeah i think you can go over just like it would take like minimum an 80 yard 60 yard bomb for aj brown to get you know what i mean like like i think you can go over but like i can get like one 20, which is where we'd have to go. Or one 30. I don't know. I talked about this with Dalton yesterday for like a while. Cause I love AJ Brown.

I think he gets fed, but he's just gotta be awesome. Cause they're going to throw 25 times. So yeah, it's fair. And I, I hate it because I keep betting these overs on these stupid Eagles players. And I'm just like a donkey,

just donking away money on these receiving lines. Um, okay. But I think one that you would like Derrick Henry alts up to like one 50. The sounds crazy. Sounds like completely ridiculous. They've allowed, or Derrick Henry is 140 plus rushing yards in five,

I think five games already playing against the giants, 16 point favorites. Their defense is playing better. As you mentioned, or 16 point favorites. Their defense is playing better. As you mentioned, or the, the Ravens even is playing better. The giants run defense is allowed a lot of 170 to Saquon allowed like massive games to any good running back.

I mean, Derek Henry might get 25 carries because they have no one else. Like they don't really feed justice Hill in these scenarios and they have Keaton Mitchell. So like, how does Derekrick henry not have like 25 carries against the worst or one of the worst run defenses in the league all right so the only question i have is what's going to happen if they start rolling them

like in the fourth quarter it's like does he have to do this in three quarters or you know i'm trying to say or will they let them finish out the game even though they're just that's i think that's the question but like they i don't think they've really done that right did you look into that like they haven't really like passed the baton they haven't they've also never really they haven't had many spots where they get out and like run away from you the only one game that happened was the denver game otherwise when they've had these scenarios, they kind of let the other team come back in. So we just don't have any real sample of what they'll do in this situation.

So that's the tricky part too. So they're also coming off of a bye. So this is actually a pretty good spot where you're like, oh, we just had the week off. Are we desperate to protect him the week after he just had the whole week off? So I don't know

dehember i don't hate it i don't hate it three quarters either can we get a three-quarter line yeah i mean half yeah yeah it's like that's obviously the question is like if he gets benched early you're kind of like i mean that's tough but 140 is plus 330 130 is plus 230 like i let's get i like the 130 130 you can get that in three quarters of football he's also going to play more than three quarters of football i'm sorry this never works out the way you think it's going to work out game script wise like it just it rarely rarely rarely does can you really think of a scenario where that dude sat the entire fourth quarter in week 15 the only thing i think about is running

back just because that's such a position that you know the guy's gonna get hit but yeah yeah you're right i mean the other any time somebody's favored by 17 though they never they never cover it feels like they never do the other angle is either so like what the hell do we do about it you know what i mean like how do you bet that smartest way? Lamar's mom yelled at him on that Philly game before the buy. And he promised that he was going to come out ready to go. This is the same scenario. Lamar rushing.

Maybe it's Lamar longest. There's something there where like, he's, he doesn't want mom to yell at him again, coming out of, coming off the field next week. So I don't know how to play it, but those are obviously good Ravens things happening. Make that sense.

We have some good looks here in the chat. Mitchell, anytime touchdown, 12 to 1 at Fandle. If you do think that for some reason that happens, well, you saw in that Denver game, they won 41 to 10. Derrick Henry, 23 carries. Justice Hill only had five. We were, let's see here. I mean, obviously Josh Johnson came in.

Derrick Henry still getting carries. Eight minutes left in the fourth quarter, up 41-10. Okay. Early in the week. Yeah, that's the only question I have. That's it. Yep. What do they do with them with that?

Are they super conservative? You know, like, what do they do? That's all. Yeah. Right. Yeah. And also think if we get to a spot where it's 41 to 10 again, Derek Henry probably did some damage to get us there.

Right. So he probably already had 20 plus carries anyways, too. Yeah. You know, yep. Um, are we need some,

we need like probably two or three juicy ones left. Um, what about, what do you guys think about dj moore receptions i like receptions six for plus 112 at vandal but seven you know now it's a party hang on i'll get your exact lines i'm only getting seven plus 155 at Caesars. Caesars is toast. Eight is plus 90. Yeah, that's a little too high for me. Seven is kind of where I draw the line. Yeah, seven's a lot.

I get to get wild, but, like, come on. Seven at Vandal is plus 198. So we couldn't bet it at Caesars anyways. Just add up to 55. Yeah, I mean, I feel like it's a good look actually, but I'm not sure it's really enough. No. Patrick's mentioning this one too.

I touched on this earlier because I was looking at – we were looking at Kamara. We played Kamara under 17 and a half rushing attempts. Patrick's talking about Kamara, alt receptions. No one's a small sample. Dude's had 29 dropbacks. No one's checked down at a higher rate than Jake Henner so far this season. 21% of his dropbacks he's checked down.

So, again, it's just getting thin there. There's not a lot left. So I think Kamara reception stuff. I think Jawan Johnson, who hit for us last week also still very much in play in a worse game script than last week and the number is the same just go receptions yeah the longest hit like that stupid little play where he runs out like four yards and then just turns around and that's like that's a pass play and like that's not you know what i mean like it's literally second and six.

You could have got that on the run, but that's all they can do. Yeah. What do we think Kamara – I mean, Kamara's six-plus reception I don't think is bad at all, to be honest. No, that's actually well in the range. Plus 255. That's pretty good. Yeah, that's really good actually.

Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's good. Who said that? Patrick? Yeah. I like that's good. Who said that? Patrick? Yeah, I like that. Patrick.

Tossing, John Morant, 10 double-double. That's hilarious. Our NBA chat has been ripping those double-doubles. That's a great market. So funny. I love it. Tyrese Maxey tonight.

Double-double action. tonight. Double action. Okay. You know what? Nasty. You know what sucks is that we don't have Kevin Jennings to bet on this week, but we do next week, so that's good. I bought an SMU shirt, by the way. I bought an SMU shirt.

Oh, nice. Yeah. I mean, it was just time. I mean, he's going to play all another year at SMU. I mean, I might buy a jersey after next year when he wins the... I'm betting I'm going to win a Heisman next year. I don't even care. Love the guy. If you hit your passing prop

nine of ten weeks or whatever it's been at this point, I'm just an absolute god. Literally. Yeah, I love Kevin. Big Kevin guy. Ever since I heard about him. Literally. So good. I think we're at like $10 to win $35,000 right now.

We're on Caesars? Yeah. You want to just stop it there? I got a spicy one for you. Okay. Caesars is unique for this. Okay. Trey Hendrickson, two plus sacks.

Can you add that? Yeah. Well, let's see if we can add it. I think it's like plus 270 or something like that. Hendrickson is a one-man band for the Bengals pass rush, playing against Will Levis. I think JC Latham is out, who's really kind of struggled anyway. Now you're going to just,

it's just a awful offensive line. Now we're going to draw back. We'll let us even more to force the ball deep downfield to Calvin Ridley. Can you fit an income? All right. Does it plus two 85? I mean, that's,

that's pretty hot. I'm down. I don't really know much, but the analysis sounded great. I mean, 10 to 133 grand. Now that just added whatever, a hundred grand to our portfolio.

Yeah. Okay. You do. I got another one of those. You want to add Jonathan Grenard against the bears? Pick them up. Ooh. Yeah.

Cause I mean, slop's a big Vikings guy too. So huge. Pretty sure. I'm pretty sure Grenard had two sacks against the bears last time. The Mets. I don't know. so like in this market this is gonna be a really stupid question they need two full sacks correct correct okay so that's pretty tough but um it happens or they what they couldn't get

two halves i don't think that's how caesars no if they get two halves and it counts as one full one yeah okay we're good okay so two halves and then one full by themselves you know that can work this is the thing with uh with hubbard i mean with uh hubbard and and a sigh for the bangles aren't getting halves hendrickson's a one man he doesn't get halves because no one else is in the backfield to bring the quarterback down he doesn't have halves because no one else is in the backfield to bring the quarterback down. He doesn't have to share with anyone else. You know, Grenard maybe is Van Ginkle, but yeah, Hendrickson by himself, he's fine. Let's put him out there, see if he gets it close to our middle.

I like it. Now, yeah, we're at 652 if you include Grenard too. So 10 to win 652. I think that's probably a solid point there, unless you have any last ones. That is very good. I guess, well, the only one that we didn't talk about was Josh Allen rushing. That's probably one of my favorite plays of the week.

Oh, yeah. He's getting like at least 50. Right. We'd like to just be like a cherry on top. We don't even have to go too crazy on that. You know what I mean? Just like go and just get that in. You can pull Grenard out of there too if it makes sense balance it out a little bit if we do josh allen 60 and we pull grunard it'll

work if we do josh allen 50 and keep grunard it'll be like 1.8 10 to win 1.8 so let me see here josh allen 60 uh yeah we would still need a little bit much to get to a million here. I mean, I don't know. Josh Allen's going to run for like 90 yards, so I'm not really too worried about this one. Yeah, it's a free leg. Yeah, guaranteed legs. I mean, we'll just keep it at this. 10 to win $571,000.

It feels – Christmas is coming up. You know what I mean? We could use the extra cash. As always, I will tweet this out and attach to the show. I will also drop it in the Discord and we can all get rich together.

Patrick said, I want a cut of this milli. Just bet it yourself, Patrick, please. You know what? That's the best way. We'll give you your own million. Yeah, exactly. Do not, I This is do not,

I swear do not come to me and ask me for a cut of the million if somehow this wins. And again, I will probably be betting a bunch of this stuff randomly by myself and I'll drop that in the discord. I usually put together like four or five all legs that I like the best. Newton does the same with his longest. This is obviously collaborative. And again, that responsibly you know, again, we're putting 10 bucks, you know, don't put 10 bucks. If 10 bucks is your unit, just to be clear, probably put 50 cents or a dollar.

So it's true. It's a good point. Responsible gambling ad at the end of a show or a million dollar parlay. But it feels like it needs to be said in today's day and age after our 10 minute rant at the beginning of the show. Just come on, guys. Don't get gambling taken away from us. We need this.

Slob literally said it's all he wants for the rest of his life. Literally. Don't mess us up. Forever. Patrick, you've been with us all year and we appreciate that. And I know years past you, you're,

you now have FOMO i have to bet this you've been sitting out all year patrick yeah i feel good juju now patrick's in it for the first time he's coming in the right time he contributed to the parlay this is really i think it's gonna win because of patrick we should call it the patrick parlay feel really good about that this is the patrick parlay all right slop has dubbed it the Patrick parlay. I love it. We'll remember you forever, Patrick. Hard to forget that avatar.

Mm-hmm. Oh, yeah. I forgot. I always like just kind of blank it out. I mean, I don't know what's going on there, but, you know, I respect it. Yep. Seems gay, but hey. You know what I mean? That's what gay men do.

Yes, that's correct. I think it's a good note to end on. Oh, that's good. All right. Absolutely love it. Take advantage of the Rebet deal. Promo code HIGHSLOP. $10 on Rebet.

Monthly 444. Monthly Slops Dub Club. Find Slop on YouTube and Twitter. Twitter at Slop Rules. YouTube, search HiSlop. You get all of his stuff as well. Come back on Wednesday for our game previews, future discussions, and again, always on Friday, 3 p.m. Eastern for Prop Drop.

For Connor and Slop, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody.