Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 16 2023 Player PROP BETS | Top Picks, Predictions & Odds | Terry McLaurin & More!

Episode Date: December 23, 2023

Dive into the thrilling world of NFL Week 16 and explore the 2023 season's standout player prop bets. Your ultimate guide for expert insights on top selections, NFL forecasts, and betting odds, spotlighting the likes of Terry McLaurin and other NFL players. We provide unique perspectives on the most enticing NFL player prop bets for Week 16, perfect for both experienced wagerers and those new to the scene.Our goal is to elevate your betting journey with tactical wisdom and professional advice, helping you to achieve greater triumphs in your NFL Week 16 betting endeavors.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow John on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/sloprulesVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU  

Hello and welcome to Move the Line, the Prop Drop Show, presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan, back to talk about the best way, the most profitable way to bet on NFL football, and that is player props. Live here at 2 p.m. Eastern every Friday, except next Friday. We'll have more on that later. On the 444Bets YouTube channel, giving out our favorite player props and taking your questions. So if you're hanging out with us now on YouTube, we appreciate that. Jump in the chat, let us know what your favorite prop is for the week, or maybe something else on the board that you want us to talk about. You know, holiday season, maybe it's a holiday take. We'll get to as many of those as we can at the end of the show. We appreciate it. You can find the

podcast in your podcast feed later on Friday evenings as well. If you're hanging out, support with a subscribe, thumbs up, all those things that go a long way in helping support the free content. We appreciate it very much. Joining me here, as always, Connor Allen. Before his hiatus, his annual trip down to Mexico. Connor, what's going on, buddy? Not much. I'm going to be the most sober show in the next week and a half or so,

so I'm pretty excited for that. But, hey, we'll let the takes fly out there in Mexico. Hopefully the wifi is a little bit better than it has been, but I'm confident we'll figure out a way to get it done. So yeah, it's the holidays are coming up and I think we've got a few spicy plays to, you know, take us home during the holiday season. Nice. Uh, is the big dog going down to Mexico with you or? Oh man, brutal. You're already bringing that up. No, my mom does live in Mexico. And for those who are unaware, Ryan was trying to set up the big dog, quote, Evan Silva with my mom at my wedding. So that was a very interesting tactic that I didn't realize was going on at the time, but there were some rumblings going on in the background, apparently.

Your mom is, I don't know where you got it. Cause both of your parents are incredibly charming and lovely, lovely people. And yeah, I mean, that was happening on its own. I wanted to facilitate it. I, you know, in all fairness to Evan at the time, cause he was late in classic Evan fashion. He did not know it was your mother. missed some of the earlier proceedings which would made it very clear that was your mother he was just flirting with someone at the wedding he did not know it was your mom um and then that definitely changed the dynamic but yeah we'll never never let that one go uh slop what's going on buddy ah living the dream guys living the dreams i live for uh for Fridays and it's Friday today. So I'm living. Living it. Looking forward to extended kids home and vacation and school vacations and the

dynamic that changes in our homes too. And Connor's just smart. He's just young, doesn't have any kids, just runs away to Mexico for a couple of weeks. I try to live vicariously through Connor every year at this time and just soak it in through social media posts and things like that. I'm envious of that life. I don't even know what that would be like. I don't either. Just go to Mexico.

Just for a couple weeks. Not even for like a week. Yeah. Good for you, Connor. You can find Slop on Twitter uh at slop rules find this stuff on odds jam uh as well you can uh find out a little bit more at the end i want to remind people to two episodes of move the line each week this is prop drop game previews you want to get a little bit more sides and totals that's connor myself sharp clark that is 3 p.m eastern on wednesdays

same youtube channel here for four bats same podcast feed as well. Again, don't forget to subscribe. You can also scoop up a betting subscription at 444. If you want all the official plays, you want all the tools, articles, all the things that we do over there, still betting NBA. That's going to take you, the betting sub is going to take you through the end of February. So massively discounted right now in relation to how our typical annual price is. Head over to 444.com slash plans. More

information here in the show notes. If you want to jump in there and come hang out with us a great way to sweat anything you're doing in the football speculation space, you're paying, playing on any of the, like the pick them sites. Um, you want all the, like I said, the official plays from Clark, Connor, myself, that's all in there again, four four dot com slash plants all right gentlemen week 16 we got three lovely days of football we got a couple saturday games we got a full christmas eve slate uh and then we got three games on uh on monday which is interesting too let's start with this like before we even get in any place like um what does that look like for you slop like how much football are you watching in the next couple of days?

Because obviously, you know, you have a few kids, you know, family obligations and all that stuff. Like how much football is on in the background? Is that something you got to like, like you got to, okay. So we do Christmas day with my in-laws, and I have a nephew. He's early 20s, so I just get him to turn on the TV. We're at their house, so you know what I mean, like when in Rome. So we're good there for the whole day.

I usually stay there until the games are over. So that's pretty much how I play it. At my house, I mean like it all depends on kids sports schedule so being that's the holidays there are not you know what i mean so you're i'm good to go there i'm green lighted pretty bit so i'm trying to say okay it's nice connor where are you at i don't know what your travel schedule is specifically but uh you probably don't have to fight maggie too much for football watching time right no i mean i'm i'm a dink you know we got we got no kids you know we got nothing really to worry about we go to her family's house and they i mean they know

the routine at this point they know that i love football so i literally just grab a drink go sit on the couch turn on the tv like it's my house and then just watch football and same with christmas so i don't know like they'll come and watch football with me but most of the time they know just to like you know whatever i want want to be Connor when I grow up. Right. You guys have great families and stuff. I have, you know,

we're just, we're just a little couple. So, you know, maybe one day I'm sure I'll be in your guys' shoes and maybe a little bit. You'll get there. Hang on to what you got right now. Yeah.

I was going to say, I want to just do what you're doing. Like, sounds like you got it made. He's going to Mexico. He's turning on other people's TVs in their houses, watching football. That's awesome. That's how you roll.

That's how you do it. I mean, my family is awesome. I love it. I married into an awesome family. So, yeah, family is great. That helps massively, especially this time of year because it is an easy thing. It will be like my wife's 94 94 year old grandmother who like watches everything it's the summer and like the only thing i've ever ever seen in the on tv in that house is sports like she'll watch dodgers diamondbacks um football

yeah football is always on uh you know i don't know i she probably has got a bookie that no one knows about um you know so i wouldn't be surprised yeah she's definitely old italian bookie like a brownie box you know everything's thousand percent yeah so you know could be could be worse for sure so uh and you know my wife is awesome with letting me watch it. And she understands, hey, this is what we do for work. So, you know, we kind of have to watch these games. Yeah. Candor's how much football will I be watching in the next few days? Yes. That's a fantastic answer.

Dad's here going to be hurting this weekend. No chance we can lock in three straight days of football. I hate the schedule this weekend from Ryan. Yeah, it's tricky for sure. Probably have some window time. Yeah, that's tricky for sure. Probably have some window time. Yeah, that's a little tricky. You got to get the YouTube TV. You got to get it on your phone.

Prop it up right in the middle of the dash. You don't have to take your eyes off the road, but you can put the red zone up at least. You can't navigate. You can listen to it, Ryan. I can't say I haven't done that. I have 100% done that. Yeah.

A thousand percent. Yeah. I do it all the time. No, you can just listen to it. If anything, you know what I'm saying? Like, I mean, like, all I got to do is be able to hear what's going on. I can picture it in my head. For my mental health, it's probably better to not watch in sweat like tackle props.

When you're like, my guy's in there. Give me the assist and it doesn't happen. Like, i'm probably better off just consuming from my phone in my car so maybe that's something i uh i add to the routine uh moving forward so each their own so uh awesome all right let's jump into it connor floor is yours week 16 first play here for us uh where are you starting with us with uh yeah i wanted to bring slop a little christmas present here So we got two overs and two ladders. So we're going to go with the first one here right off the bat.

We're going to go with Amari Cooper over 56.5 receiving yards. This is pretty widely available. Cooper has 109 and 77 receiving yards in two full games with Flacco. He had three for 34 before getting injured against the Rams on just 30% of the snaps. He's been targeted on over 25% of his route so far. And I think Flacco is pretty volatile, but they're passing a ton. Second and pass rate over expectations. Third and overall pass rate to Spart.

Despite largely playing like competitive games, it's not like they're passing the play from behind. Like they're just going out and throwing more. Now you get a matchup here against the Texans who have really not played all that well. Since a week seven by 67% completion rate allowed over eight yards per attempt. And over nine yards per attempt outside wideouts where Cooper runs 85% plus of his routes. So I think 56 yards is really,

really low. So I'm playing 80 plus 90 plus a hundred plus. You can get that up to like a plus 500 or plus four 75. I think on draft Kings is a hundred plus receiving yards. So I think that this is pretty solid here because this is just a spot for him to go nuclear again, especially if Flacco is like retaining any of the same kind of volume. And I, and I think they is pretty solid here because this is just a spot for him to go nuclear again, especially if Flacco is like retaining any of the same kind of volume. And I think they will here.

Yeah. Like you said, I mean, it has been definitely a shift in terms of passing over expectations, sometimes two with offensive line injuries. Like you, like, yeah, you can't protect as well, but also teams, what they often do is like, well, let's just get the quarterback back in shotgun and get the ball out of his hands quickly versus like, let's just try to like plow through and create holes with some of these backup guys so i think we've seen a shift there and i think you brought it up on another show too connor it's interesting this has been a flacco thing because this is what the jets did too

right they just kind of shifted into like this pass heavy offense when they got flacco which is really very interesting a slopping interest in uh this uh cleveland passing offense very much so very much so i'm actually kind of like all over the cleveland stuff i'll just go with my net my play it actually is a cleveland play it's a guy you just named him joe flacco two plus touchdowns i two plus passing touchdown sorry i got it at plus 142 yesterday at FanDuel. It's at plus 124 right now. It looks like that's the best place to play it. I'd still play that there.

I mean, obviously, plus 142 is better. No one's going to argue that. But plus 124, that's still good enough for me. So here's the thing. He's done this in all three games that he's played so far. They don't have anything that resembles a run game once it gets down there. So there's that. Houston's only given up 14 passing touchdowns this season to quarterbacks.

So that does kind of suck. That's fewest in the NFL. But, and it's a big but, we're talking about quarterbacks like Will Levis, Russell Wilson, Bryce Young, Kenny Pickett. I mean, dude, I wouldn't take those guys to throw two touchdowns in a game against like Tewksbury High. You know what I mean? So there is that. Baker Mayfield threw two against these guys.

Zach Wilson just did a couple weeks ago. And Joku is going to be a problem down there, I think. I think Flacco seems to really like that dude. So we could probably get one there. Two touchdowns is just not a very high bar, especially for the way the Browns have been playing. I mean, you can hear my dog. My dog loves that move.

So, I mean, this feels like – it almost felt like – when I saw a plus 140 somebody yesterday, I was like, wow, something's up. Like I wasn't sure what I was looking at, but man. Yeah, that's a good line. Where's this total at? Is this still in play? Let me just see where that is. No, just the games total.

Just the 40. Yeah, I think it's moved up a little bit because I think we're in the uh upper 30s a little bit so yeah i don't i don't hate it i know connor's in on some unders in that backfield too so i think that kind of supports it a little bit to them just going past heavy and you know even when they score i think flacco is involved uh a little same game parlay there connor any thoughts on uh flacco with two scores yeah i like it flacco. Flacco, two scores. Samara Koop over. I played Jerome Ford under.

I mean, he has literally eight carries. Kareem Hunt had seven carries last week. Houston allowing the lowest yards per carry to opposing running backs in the league. So they're going to have an easier time passing it. Flacco wants to pass it anyways. It's all adding up to a spot where they're going to run the ball in first down for like two yards and then throw the ball second and third down until they get the first down again. And then that's what's going to happen every time.

We saw it against the Bears. Literally the exact same thing happened. It was like they couldn't run on first down because the Bears, you know, run defense is awesome. But the Bears pass evens actually played pretty well. This Texans pass defense is not good. So I'm excited to see what Flacco can do here. Yeah, but in the red zone too, like those are my favorite ones. When you get down there and you know the first play first play is just gonna get stuffed and you know it it's like all

right so now you got two shots at the end zone you know what i mean so i'm not sure how many times you're gonna get down there but dude we only need two yeah 100 our guy c mac in the discord was bringing up flacco attempts earlier and i didn't want to say anything because i knew we were going to talk about in the show so yeah you know shout know, shout out there. Uh, I think that's a pretty good look too. I think it's like 34 or something like that. Um, it's pretty low. I think he's going to pass a bunch, but I think you can probably play all the overs and all these and they're all going to hit. So yeah, let's see. Uh, completions for Flacco 21 and a half plus 100, uh, attempts 34 and a half, uh at giraffe kings minus 125 so yeah shot that around

a little bit but yeah i don't hate any of those and anything to kind of support those uh just pass heavy continuing here so uh one that i like quite a bit here to get started is uh chuba hubbard over 16 and a half rushing attempts this is on draft kings at minus 120 moved a little bit on caesars but pretty readily available there are some books that are 17 and a half though so if you can get the draft kings at 16 and a half we obviously rather take it i actually still really like it and think it's playable like minus 115 at 17 and a half before the coaching change that happened carolina was fifth in raw pass rate 17th and pass rate over expected since the coaching move 29th in pass rate dead

last in pass rate over expectation hubbard has at least 22 carries uh in each of those games three straight taking our like a larger share from lyle sanders who's just kind of still involved but not you know not necessarily like early downs not necessarily anything like that like he's more involved in the passing game and hubbard's been good so like doesn't seem like there's any threat for sanders really kind of taking back over that role and this is a great spot for them to kind of continue like that if they just shifted all of a sudden and started chucking again would be very weird like teams love to run on the packers they have faced the third most rushing attempts in league this season negative 3.1 pass rate over expectation against them,

sixth lowest in football. Yeah, I just like this to continue here. You want to take some, like you don't want to do rushing attempts. Take like 69 and a half rushing yards. You could take alt rushing yards. I think there are plenty of ways to play this, Connor. What are your thoughts on Chuba? No, I absolutely love it.

You're looking at the number and you're like, holy shit, 16 and a half seems astronomically high for a player like Chuba Hubbard. But then when you think about it and look what's been happening, like you said, the Panthers want to run the ball. They've been super run heavy. They fall behind. And I'm like, I mean, I lost best on this. This is where I first started noticing was because I lost to Chuba Hubbard under

because they were down 20 points and they're just running the piss out of the ball. If they had no interest in throwing still, and I'm like, what is going on? Like they just don't want to win. They don't, they don't care about that. So their drives are going to be long. They're going to be like seven, eight minute drives of just 10, like, you know, seven, eight carries for Chuba. And then it's going to be a field goal attempt.

So I also play Jordan Love under on the other side for kind of the same reasons as Panthers defense has actually been really well out of their buy allowing 5.9 field goal attempt. So I also play Jordan Love under on the other side for kind of the same reasons as Panthers defense has actually played really well out of their buy, allowing 5.9 yards per attempt. Only one quarterback's over 200 passing yards. I think those actually correlate fairly well in a lot of ways. So take some Jordan Love under, take some Chuba Hubbard rushing overs if you want a little same game parlay there. I mean, this game is going to be outrageously boring in my mind, but hey, maybe it's one of those you bet on, don't watch,

and then just collect your winnings after. Yeah. Yeah, what do you think, Slop? I have it crossed off on my sheet. There you go. I was like, I'm good. That's a good sign. I'm all set with the Panthers.

Yeah. That's a thumbs up for the Jordan Love under. If the game's crossed off of Slop's list, that's a – up for the Jordan love under if the game's crossed off of, of slops list. That's a, yeah. All right. Let's get a little spicy here,

Connor. You know, there's a, I feel like there's a game that's going to draw a lot of our attention in terms of the meal of spice this week, but I mentioned to see where we go here. Yeah. I think there are a couple of games that you can target,

but I went with like a, another real round Robin thing here and I think there are a couple of games that you can target, but I went with like another real round robin thing here. And I'll give you a couple of the legs, but I don't want to give you my last one because it's also my last play. So I'll give that to you after. So Mari Cooper plus 475 on DraftKings. Tyreek Hill's all lines of DraftKings

are like disrespectful right now. So I think that like you're looking at one 13 plus is like plus 200 over plus 200 for 113 pass or receiving yards, which I get he's banged up. I get he's injured against the Dallas defense, but they play a ton of man. He's averaging like five yards per out run against man. He's just absolutely shredding them. So if he's like, I don't know, 70, 80% healthy, if this is even really a game, like he's going to catch one or two long balls and he's going to absolutely shred. So I think that's an interesting one to put in there.

Gabe Davis alts. I mean, he's done absolutely nothing, but it's 60 plus is like plus three 90. I don't think that that the bills going run heavy was like a new game plan. Like they're going to be run heavy forever. I think it was game plan specific against the Cowboys. We're one of the worst at defending the run.

So I think we see the bills pass at least a reasonable amount in this one. Chargers pass defense is terrible. So, you know, again, it's not something I'm looking to play over 30 and a half receiving yards. Cause I think he gets there, but I don't want to bet minus one 15 on it because he could very well dud, but he also has, I think it's five or six games over 60 yards and then like four or five games at zero yards. So it's the ultimate boom bust alt player. So I like throwing him in there. And then Jordan Love alt under passing yards around like 200, I think it's fair. But you can't bet that yet. So I don't have it officially in there. And then I got my next one for the next play, but I'll wait on that until we're done with this section.

I love it. And you said the first leg, you just said plus 475 for Amari Cooper. What is that, like over 100 yards? Yeah, 100. It's the first half line. First half line. Absolutely love to see it. Love to see it. All right, and then we get around Robin Nats,

which I love how just absolutely bonkers that strategy is. So, yeah, you hit a couple of legs, you're still gonna get paid a little bit there and uh you know not just leave yourself there where you have that one leg to fall short and yeah love it love the look i'll uh i'll tell you the odds after we i tell you the next one um because i i did round robin it on draft kings which by the way draft kings added a new feature recently which i mean this is the best feature they've had in a while you can type in the amount like fanduel does you can type in the amount and it'll tell you what your max

wager is on it so yeah right exactly doing that that's my favorite thing about them yeah no that's awesome you know i love that yeah fanduel does that draft kings just started doing this like i don't know a week or so ago maybe two weeks ago and it is a lifesaver. Yeah, right. Exactly. No, they did. Okay. I thought you were shouting out Fando. Okay. Yeah. No.

DraftKings does it too? Yeah. Look at that. I mean, it's been great. I just noticed it a couple days ago. Yeah. That should be illegal for books not to do that. Seriously.

I'm not even kidding. Dude, if there's a limit on what I could – you have to tell me what it is. I put what I want to do in the box and then you come back and say, I don't have – I shouldn't have to submit. Because that means they could literally just be taking your action or not taking your action. I'm sorry, just getting it though, getting your information, but then not taking your action.

You know what I mean? And then deciding then, I don't want it arbitrary. Like let me type it in the box and that's it. I didn't hit anything. You don't know what I like, but yeah. It's, it's also massive for like round Robins and same game parlay. So what used to happen was they would, I would try to put like 20 bucks on around Robin or something like that.

And they would just outright reject it and say, max limit wage or reach. But now I typed in like 10 bucks to see what they would give me. And they gave me, it was literally my limit was like 1045. So I put 10 bucks and it's like 10 bucks and it put it all in and it put it all in for me and like immediately. And I was like, Oh, this is amazing. Like finally I could put in parlays without, you know, getting like max limit wager reach. And if you do it all at the same time, it won't give you that message anymore. So huge shout out DraftKings for doing something right for once. Um, yeah, excited about that to at least be able to bet five or $10 on

something that I want to bet without getting like completely chopped the worst is that they had shifted to that you get that notification and not even a dollar amount they would just tell you that you're like yeah no dollar amount it was so dumb it was like this is fun you're just not taking the bet like that's and find out because it's like dude like that's like the biggest scam in the world like like so you're getting someone's information but like you're not letting them bet like that's bullshit yeah just predatory behavior for sure so kudos to draft kings for being less predatory i'm still a small level of predatory behavior but last predatory and we'll give you uh we'll give you you know it's the holiday season yeah we'll take we'll take some improvements wherever we can get them so yeah uh i should

have parlayed everything i gave out on the show last week i mean i swept the board last week here including the spicy section so um you know shame on me for not doing that slap i apologize it could have been you know but uh 10 to 10k uh just, you know, trusting myself and bring it all together. 10 to 10 K in one day. Live and learn. Why wait to climb the ladder? We can just do it all at once. Right.

You know? Yeah. Yep. Yep. Just get to the top. All right. Slop. Where are we going?

Where are we spicing it up this week? All right. So I've done this before on this show and it did not work, but I'm not a quitter. Never have been my whole life. I'm going to go again. I'm going to go Jamison Williams, 80-plus receiving yards, plus 880. All right, at FanDuel.

Look, here's the thing. They got the Vikings. They win, and they clinched the division. They haven't done that since I was like a freshman in high school. It's been a while. So this is a big game for them. I would say it's the biggest game for like all these guys. So they're coming in.

Not that they wouldn't be trying before, but, again, it just sounds nice if I say that first. They got the Vikings. The Browning guy from the Bengals just threw for like 320-something against them last week. So they're not good. That whole 3-0 game against the Raiders, I don't know what happened. I don't know if they all went and partied the night before.

So who knows what happened there. But that was a fluke. I think they can be had in the air. And Williams was on the field for 68% of the snaps last week. Got targeted seven times. That never happens. He's like a two-target guy. So let's just say they are throwing the ball,

and it does end up in Williams' hand. 80 yards on seven targets. I'm not saying he can target seven times, but what if he does? You know what I mean? Like 80 yards is not a lot for a guy that is that fast. That could happen. I'm actually going to play it, and I did it just now at FanDuel, and they did the thing.

If you put $100, they let me do, I can't see it, $51. $51.07. But still, I think that's it, man. I think that's the move. I think this is finally the week. He's going to pay me back all the money he owes me. And if you don't want to get that wild, why not? Ooh, plus 1,200 for 80 on DK.

Even better, Mary. I like it. I didn't look at DK first. But they never have better odds. But you could do two and a half receptions for like plus 120. I did that at DraftKings this morning. So if you wanted to like, you know, kind of make it a little bit safer, you can always do that.

I like it. Good find, my Mary. Shout out, Mary. Yeah, thank you, Mary. 4-4 supporter. Appreciate it very much. Good finds. Let's see what they like.

Yeah, I like it. He's involved more for sure. Connor, what do you got on this? Yeah, he's involved more too. There are some pretty interesting splits that Rich Rebar talked about in his column this week with like cover two versus cover three. So the Vikings play like the first and second most of each coverage basically. And like in those coverages, like Goff has been like absolutely horrible against cover two.

And then he's also played amazing against cover two. And then he's playing, he's also played amazing. It's cover three. So it's like they play cover two, like 55% of the time, something like that. And then they play cover three, like 30%, 40% of the time. And, but he's like amazing. It's one and horrible against the other. So it's like, you're going to, in my mind,

you're going to see like probably two or three straight incompletions and then just like a laser over the middle or like, you know, a bomb. And hopefully Jameson connects on that. So I don't think it's going to be super consistent, but I think that the upside is there for this lions, uh, offense also indoors is key. Jameson playing more. I mean, I'm also like a sucker for Jameson. So 27 and a half is just too low. I mean, I just think he's a baller. He gets too much hate. He's, you know, maybe not the best, uh, you know, player in terms of like someone who

like got on the field and was like working the hardest or any of that but he hasn't had to you know he's just been faster than everyone else his whole life so um i think that you know this spot hopefully starts getting going here everything has changed since he like had that downfield block you remember that like a couple weeks ago maybe five six weeks ago awesome play yeah literally he blocked for a touchdown like 40 yards downfield he's the anti george pickens he is for sure he's got grit anti-George Pickens. He is. For sure. He's got grit. George Pickens has no grit. Yeah.

I mean, he ran like 80 yards. It was Montgomery against the Chargers. Like sprung him. He wouldn't have scored that touchdown without it. And we need him for 80 plus. Just saying. Perfect. Coincidence?

I think not. Purple life. Sometimes it just falls in your lap. It's just right there. So yeah, you love to see the spike in route participation too, to support it. And targets came along with it and yeah. Earning targets at a higher clip one game,

but like we'll take it and just hold on it. Hey, becomes two though. We call it a trend if it happens twice slop. So, you know, why get on the back end of trends? Just jump on the front,

be a, be a leader, you know, lovely. All right. end of trends? Just jump on the front, be a leader, you know? Lovely. All right. I'm surprised that none of us, well, not none of us, because I'm going to break the trends. We got a 51-point total here with the Cowboys and Dolphins. I thought we were going to have some Cowboys and Dolphins stuff.

I know Connor talked about Tyreek there too. But I want to get access to this miami run game and like it's not even like a reaction to what buffalo did and how they ran all over dallas like connor brought it up on our wednesday game preview like you've been able to run on dallas all season long so yeah jonathan hankins was out i don't think he's practiced today to wait and see what happens there big 360 pounds like not a great player but like a guy just takes up space you got to account for and very very easy to run on this guy cowboy's defense without him but like it or you know without him in with him it's been happening too like they still were

bottom five run unit you can get some explosives on them and this is a team built for some explosives so i want to find different ways to do that. And Devin A-chain is, we just haven't seen the like upside for a little bit. It's only a matter of time. So a couple of different ways to do it. First of all, A-chain has been like getting some really interesting work in the passing game. You can get over 52 and a half receiving yards. And again, like we know how flimsy running back receiving yards can be. So I'm not going to master this binary prop at like 23 and a half, though. It's interesting considering the work he's getting,

but 52 and a half, like this is a dude that can just, he literally could do that on one ball with his game breaking ability. 52 and a half is five to one on draft Kings. If you want to get him for a hundred total yards and two scores. Cause again, like this guy has like massive upside and you've seen a lot of running back when was most have 20 touchdowns uh we've seen some running back

touchdowns here uh big plays on top of it too so 100 plus two scores for a chain 13 to 1 on draft kings you want to do it with most just he's going to continue to get a couple of touchdowns 80 rushing in two scores for most is nine to one um so i just want access to like i didn't want to say different ceiling outcomes because i'm not touching anything specifically on the dallas side there's nothing that really intrigues me and like focusing there because i think we could see jaylen ramsey he shadowed last week on garrett wilson i think we could see ramsey shadow a little bit here on uh on cd and slow him down at least a little bit especially when he's in the slot so i'm not super excited about any dallas stuff but yeah i want access to

tyreek ceiling uh a chain ceiling most are ceiling i think these are some interesting ways to do it uh connor what do you think no i love it what's the status of miami's like offensive line like are they getting healthier i didn't i didn't check their injury report today i saw i forget who it was one guy's in and one's a game time decision. So the guys that have been missing of late. So some good news. So we'll have to wait and see there. Okay, nice.

All right, well, yeah, that would, I think that would be a big difference maker for them because then they would probably just be able to run the ball. I mean, not as well as the Bills, but a lot of the game. And I think most of it would have a big day. So that would be worth throwing into the alts instead of Tyreek or with Tyreek, maybe both, honestly,

because you'll probably get that rando bomb from Tyreek. And then, you know, most are just grinding out 70, 80, 90 rushing yards. His props only like 57 and a half. I feel like that's low.

I don't know. I kind of thought like low. Do you think that too? I don't know. I saw it. I couldn't get there. I mean, I don't know. I always think a chance couldn't get there i mean i don't know i

always think h and's prop is a little bit too high but he's so explosive the thing is like mostard has been the guy when h and like h and just because i got like cleanup work like he's like he doesn't really get even that much work until the second half and then he got injured so i don't know i probably like mostard over by the most here yeah so most are uh 80 rushing two scores uh 901 on uh on dk so yeah i mean the a-chain stuff is i mean it's hard not to be like romantic about what happened early this season when that guy touched the ball it was just like insane explosiveness for you know a little three game stretch there we just haven't seen it much of late but again like it does feel like there's been some spots where you know when little three game stretch there we just haven't seen it much of late but again like

it does feel like there's been some spots where even when he came back in that Raiders game and they said he could have played and they just they were super cautious with him didn't play in the next week he'll give him a little bit 17 carries against Washington the next time out there and then you know against Tennessee and that game got a little bit closer he had nine targets caught five balls surprising that he hasn't like just hasn't broke any like he's topped out at 30 receiving yards so i'm asking him to do 52 and a half it's definitely something that he hasn't done yet this is a guy that like we just have one catch um it just has to be the right one and then tina plays a lot of man coverage like he's gonna get a you know damon clark and man coverage or something in the flat make one

guy miss and just take off like that's that's a that's another part of the handicap that i think is interesting with the way the dallas plays d so yeah one axis to that game going a little bit berserk and uh yeah those are interesting ways to do it so all right regular props connor back to you uh what's your uh your last look here and this is also going to be the last leg of the uh the round robins you said as well right yep yeah we're keeping it fun here keeping it a little bit hot. Um, so I'm going to play DJ more over 65 and a half receiving yards. This is not a very standard prop that I would play, but there's a lot of things working in his favor here. So in full games with Justin Fields, DJ more as 52, 68, 114, 96, 25, one Oh four 41, one 131 and 230 receiving yards in full games with justin fields he's literally as

you know this number in six of nine games he has over 100 yards in four or five games like it he is just absolutely crushed with justin fields and now he gets a match up here and this is super match specific because as someone who's watched i mean every bear snap for years at this point and seeing every play of justin fields career when he's not under pressure, he's awesome. Like he is very good for the most part. And Arizona doesn't blitz. They don't get pressure. They're like bottom two in both metrics. And so you have that in factor here. I think Justin Fields is going to play really well. And then DJ Moore's splits are pretty similar to Justin Fields. So when Justin Fields is under pressure averages 4.6 yards per attempt, when he's not under pressure, 8.4 yards per attempt. DJ Moore, when Justin Fields is under pressure,

just 1.2 yards per outrun, nine yards per target, only 90% target share. When Fields is not under pressure, Moore is a 28% target share, 3.9 yards per outrun, 12.7 yards per target. Essentially, you're giving him some time. He's just going to sling it to DJ Moore on these crossers, on deeper routes. If he doesn't have time, I mean, it makes sense. He's just not gonna be able to find him as far downfield. So I like this spot here against an Arizona Cardinals defense that not only doesn't get pressure, but they're allowing a 72% catch rate to opposing wideouts and 9.2 yards per target, which is, I mean, just abysmal. So I think there's a lot of factors coming together here and DJ Moore is just, he's a dog. So I get it's a high number, but I also think there's, there's two all to DK 84 and a half is plus two Oh five. And then one Oh eight and a half

is plus 500 on drafting. So, I mean, again, that's, these are numbers that he's hit multiple times already. And I think this is probably the best matchup out of all of them outside of Washington probably. But you know, so he had 230 in that, in that matchup. So go figure plus 500 here. So if you're looking at this round robin that I put in, it was Gabriel Davis, 60 plus, Mari Cooper, 100 plus, Tyreek Hill, 138 plus, and DJ Moore, 107 plus. It's, I think, 100 to one on a regular parlay,

maybe 1,000 to one. It was 10 to win, 10,000. So maybe it was 1,000 to one. It's pretty good. Yeah, right. So I round robin them you know you win a couple of different ones on threes fours you know whatever you want so just some interesting legs there i'll probably throw an official one and tweet it out or something like that

um but yeah what do you what do you think any thoughts are you proud of me for uh playing some overs here i am you were firing unders uh all morning and uh saving them the you know didn't want to mess up slops you know christmas just a gentleman uh just class all these class move big time yeah you know i played around with a couple different uh justin fields things too and i think that you can in terms of like you know the uncorrelated parlays too like under attempts over yards um i thought was interesting because i think they could run a lot here and have success doing so. But I still like the big playability because I knew you were on the DJ Moore part too. So I knew that that was part of it.

And yeah, he's been awesome. So yeah, I think there's a lot of ways to do it. Bears, I think, I don't want to say the Bears cruise, but like comparatively, the Bears play really good football. It feels like a really good spot for them here. So yeah, I like it. Slop, what do you think here? DJ Moore? I'm a big DJ Moore guy.

With Fields, though. Only with Fields, though. He, like, yeah, with T-Bag, not so much. But Fields, I'm trying to think. What's his reception number? Do you got that right in front of you? Juiced four and a half or plus money five and a half. Yeah, it's no fun.

I hate when they do that six plus but i mean i kind of want more than you know plus 110 or something like that i probably want that a little higher but yeah no he's a reception guy but and he's a yards guy so you could you got options with dj more because he's not just going to catch behind the line scrimmage get slammed i mean he does get those for your receptions but they also find him downfield he runs the intermediate route i mean he's just he's literally who justin fields is looking for whenever he looks up you know you know it's literally like where's two so yeah he's a fun guy to have yeah and that that cardinal secondary is is beat up and bad um They're bad when they're healthy.

Yeah, he's going to cook there too. And the weather's going to be decent. Like, you know, it's in Chicago. You think Chicago game right around Christmas, it'll be like 50 degrees and, you know, nice. So no concerns about, you know, weather there. So, yeah, I like it. I like it quite a bit.

I think some of the tying some of the field stuff too, if you wanted to go same game parlay, I think is of interest to me too. So Slop, what do you got for us all right so this one kind of got nuked a little bit since i i bet it but i'd still do it at this number gerald everett three and a half receptions minus 102 now it was about an hour ago it was like plus 116 and 118 something like that but um yeah i don't know what the Chargers are really going to look like without Staley, but they still have Kellen Moore. And Kellen Moore likes tight ends.

I think he likes Gerald Everett. He's been on the field like 60 plus, 63% of the time over the last like four games. In that span, the Chargers have targeted their tight ends more than everybody except for four teams so he's getting targets we're talking 25 targets in those four games for everett eight in each of the last two games easton stick probably gonna need somebody pretty close so i don't know if i'd go yards on this guy because again he could have one of those catches where he like loses yards just because they do run the tight end screen with him.

Or he runs, like, two yards and turns around, and that's, like, the play. So I feel like receptions is probably the way to go. No Keenan Allen, so that's another thing. The Chargers probably playing from behind. So if you don't get it from the Chargers being good in the first half, then you can get it from the Chargers being bad in the second half. So you have two ways out here. It's only four catches. He's done this, I think,

four straight games. I mean, let's go. Yeah, I mean, dead cap outs. We talked about a little bit what's going on with the Chargers. It's hard to get an idea of what to expect there. But yeah, bring us back to week one where Slop was on tight ends. I think Gerald Everett in particular. Yeah, big tight end guy

we know that's middle school i caught any uh any gerald everett thoughts oh man yeah i mean five receptions these last two games four receptions the two games prior um you know he's playing a lot uh i don't i don't really know maybe i'd go re-watch that easton stick game because like when that game was close, he was horrible. They just couldn't do anything outside of throw the ball to Gerald Everett. That was it. That's the thing.

It's all one. I think receptions here is definitely the right look because I have just serious, serious concerns about their efficiency and like Easton stick here because they just looked dead in the water. They can't run the ball. So just put so much pressure on him with like a bad receiving core.

Like, I don't know. There's a lot of issues here. So it's lead to Gerald Everett. Yeah. I consider it an Easton stick under honestly, but after like he put together like 150 yards in the second half last week, kind of scared me off.

I wonder if the bills are are up by 40 here, and he just dinks and dunks away. You know what I take, though, is he wasn't that bad early in the game. He wasn't good, but the turnovers. I mean, you fumble a fucking kick, a kickoff, and a punt, and it's like, dude, are you serious right now? It's 21 to nothing.

And before the guy even touches the ball again after going 14. You know what I mean? So it's like, I mean, how much of that was him, if that makes sense? I mean, again, I'm not saying he was good. I wasn't ever considering an over. But I'm just saying, like, when it comes to that, it's like now it's 21 to nothing in the first quarter. The guy really didn't do much wrong. He didn't do a lot right, but it was that punt returner and the kick returner.

I mean, like you pretty much – now he's getting rushed every single time. Like, I don't know. We'll see. Definitely we'll see. Like, who knows? But I don't know. Four catches, that's all I'm focused on, that number. That's such a low bar, and they can't throw it at anybody else.

Maybe the Palmer kid. Like, can you trust him? number that's such a low bar and they don't they can't throw it anybody else i i maybe the palmer kid like can you trust him no not really you know i mean eight targets back-to-back games for forever uh which is real nice i mean last game only ran 24 routes and saw uh eight targets so it's a good day's work he's stiff on the the shit out of that guy, too. Did you see that one? It was nice. You got that going, too. You know who I will not be betting on in that game

is Alex Erickson. That took his over. It took me playing eight-mile to get him out of his shell. Whatever works, though, Connor. It worked. It was magic when it did happen. It was nuts. shell you know until he got his 14 yard whatever works o'connor it worked hey it worked you know it was it was magic when it did happen you know it was it was nuts i feel better sometimes you

have to wait for him like that and they pay off like you know you you earned it you know if you get that first quarter you know like you know slob bets a lot of first half lines yeah you don't you know they're just the money's in the bank it's great. But you don't feel like you earned it as much. When you sweat the full game, you watch that for three hours to get to the very end. That's a full day's work. Your per hour on the bet is a lot less, unfortunately. You might even lose weight watching ones like that. Plus, the amount of unders that I've lost in that bullshit this year is like this – like, you know, I had to win a couple overs on it.

You know, like Zay Flowers catching that, like, 25-yard dot from Lamar in, like, the last play. Like, all these different things each week that happens to be on unders. It happened to be on an over. It was magical. Beautiful. Good to be there. All right, last basic prop for me here uh

isaiah likely uh over 36 and a half receiving yards it's another spot where like i wanted receptions but like you know we're like we're juiced up to kind of unplayable range and i would want more uh than the price that i would get so um you know to go like four and a half plus money would still probably be like plus 120 or something like, you know, to go like four and a half plus money would still probably be like plus one 20 or something like that. So I'm going to take over 36 and a half. This is a readily available Caesars, DraftKings,

MGM. If you have rivers, uh, bet rivers, there's a 34 and a half available at minus one 17. Um, but yeah, I mean,

not everyone has access to that. So, uh, we played Trey McBride here last week, over five and a half receptions against the Niners, um, made the case last week that i thought we were getting a discount because of the perception of the defense and that definitely came to pass i mean mcbride's also an absolute stud um wanted to go back to the well here on mcbride but we couldn't get the a good price there but yeah i just think we're getting a discount because of the perception of the Niners. And look, part of the case last week with the McBride handicap was they just haven't

really faced any actual upper tier tight ends. And the ones that they have, uh, training bright last week in TJ Hawkinson, they've asked like they, those guys have eight against the Niner. So, uh,

I love the Niners to absolutely like, I don't want to say boat race, but I think the Niners are a problem offensively. They're going to score some points. So if Baltimore is close and competitive, this is really good for Isaiah Likely anyway. If not, they're playing from behind, which I expect. This is also really good for Isaiah Likely,

which is kind of what I think is going to happen here. So he's topped it in every game. Andrews has gone down 83 and 70 yards the past two games. We need him to get half of that here uh 29 target share last week he's running around on 87 of the dropbacks since andrews is out like kelsey's like 91 you know a lot of other elite tight ends are like 75 so like we have like wide receiver one type of route participation basically like tyreek runs around like 85 of the dropbacks uh when he's playing

so this is a pretty good usage here for for likely so um yeah i just think they're going to be in the game past heavy game script and likely is going to be heavily involved connor any thoughts no i like it i think it's uh i feel like it should probably be like low 40s i think that 36 and a half makes a lot of sense here i think the, like all of these guys have been downgraded because of the defense here and because of like, I mean, we're getting, you know, Zay Flowers, low 40s, Odell, like high 30s, kind of that same range, and then Bateman, like high 20s. So it's always interesting, I think, among the wideouts,

choosing your poison here, but I think likely has a more stable role. So I think it's a little bit more interesting. Yeah, 50 plus is plus 155 on Caesars. You could probably shot that around and find some other prices similar. Slop, any thoughts on this game, which I think is probably the best of the weekend there, Christmas night, little eggnog, little Niners, Ravens. Any thoughts on Likely here? You're a big tight end guy.

Yeah, huge tight end guy, again, since middle school. Likely is nice. I mean, we were watching him last week. I think I had him. He was in one of my parlays. I watered down a bunch of reception props. I think it was three plus. That was the biggest gift ever.

I mean, you knew that was cash in very early. They're real creative with how they try and get him the ball, too. They do that misdirection shit where they go one way and then Lamar rolls out the other way and looks for him. So, obviously, they like him. They want to get him the ball. I don't know how much they're going to be able to move the ball with their receivers.

So, I mean, Odell Beckham Jr., yeah, Zay Flowers, okay. But, I mean, you're going to need something. You're going to need likely. And 36 and a half, that's a first-quarter line. You don't see those a lot. That's what I mean, you're going to need something. You're going to need likely. And 36.5, that's a first quarter line. You don't see those a lot. That's what I thought too. I know I hit a different tab because I thought I was on the wrong stuff. Is that a first quarter line?

Yeah. I'm going to watch the whole game, so I don't mind sweating a full game line. So I think that matters. Also, I want to add in there, you said drinking some eggnog. This reminds me. If you've ever gotten drunk off the eggnog 10 out of 10 would not recommend your stomach is just an absolute shambles i mean it is a complete disaster it's for uh the young young people you know early 20s so you can say they did it and then they realize why you never do that again oh god just complete disaster um yeah it just reminded me of some bad times so i'm not

an eggnog guy anymore it was good it was good going down that's all i'll say yeah i love eggnog um you know i'm not a big uh i like i'm not a big like get wasted on eggnog guy i'm just not a big like get wasted guy to begin with for the most part but definitely it seems like a really bad you know mixture of like the alcohol just kind of just too thick you know what i mean it's just too thick like that's the beginning of it immediately it's just too thick and then yeah not kind of right it's just coming up jesus christ that's a rough night yeah i don't know why i thought it was a good idea but you know i just kept uh kept rolling with it for a while try it i mean you know you have to try

you have to see what it's like and that is not good yeah steve mentioned have an irish coffee like a real alcoholic yeah that's probably uh probably the way to go christmas morning yeah yeah i i do uh you know this time of year it's you know a nice little treat you know you want to have like a little dessert a little something sweet. Eggnog is pretty sweet. It's really good if you happen to like chai, like black tea. Black tea and eggnog, cold, it's delicious. Highly recommend that. Again, you want to put a little bit of alcohol in that. No alcohol.

You can. You lost me. I don't know what you – You lost me. I know I lost you. Yeah. It doesn't sound very you lost i don't know what you lost i know i lost you uh yeah yeah it doesn't sound very good i don't know you know what i mean it's pretty good scotch this time of year no tea no um eggnog just literal scotch just yeah yeah drunk on that sounds miserable yeah i i would imagine like the 10,

15 minutes before it starts to work its way out. It's probably a pretty disastrous feeling in your stomach. Anticipation of death is worse than death itself. That's how it goes with that. You know what I mean? Like, cause you know what's about to happen. It's just like,

man, there's nothing you can do and you just sit there and know it. Yeah. We we got a question here what kind of what kind of uh scotch do you like um I get an obon downstairs it's uh I think it's a single malt it's uh I'm not even that much of a scotch guy it's just it was downstairs I saw him drinking a lot lately I mean what's wrong with that whatever but uh yeah no it's not bad we got the giant ice cubes you know those the uh the rubber containers you make the giant ice cubes so that's good too it doesn't get watered down yeah yeah so what you do is you

have one one glass or whatever a couple fingers and then you can just move on to like the Miller lights you know of course gets you going like yeah i said yeah it ignites everything you know you got to get like you know one glass of liquor and then you can just like coast on some beer maybe two glasses you know and then coast on some beer yeah you seem like a two glass guy yeah yeah you don't have enough of course of course and then timmy uh bourbon is correct choice i'm also a bourbon guy but um yeah scotch is solid too only in the bottle jeff yeah kirkland they just came out with the news uh you know new golf clubs at kirkland too like you can get everything you need over there you know kirkland signature golf clubs buy some scotch buy her jeans yeah yeah whatever you

need you know head over there get uh 25 pounds of mayonnaise whatever you need uh they'll take care of it for you over there i like stores like that though yeah it's like um you know meat and stuff from uh parks and rec where you know uh yeah ron ron get, you know, Ron gets, you know, yeah. You know, April got some like dead birds, stuffed birds. Ron got some hamburger. You can buy like, you know, whatever you need. Yard equipment. It's whatever you need.

They got it all. All right. What else we got here? Some defensive stuff. So some stuff I liked has come out since we started. So I'm going to refrain on, on some of the tackle plays that I really liked this week. Cause those are you bastards. We'll move those before I can get to them.

Really. But there's some stuff on the board that is popping. That is of interest to me. We'll get going there. A couple of sacks. Boy, a Maffay, a defensive end for the Seahawks uh playing the titans here this week

we're either going to get like a banged up gimpy will levis or ryan tannahill um mafe is uh over quarter sack on draft kings at plus 120 uh when tannahill went down if it's going to be tannahill the second highest pressure to sack rate in the league uh that's been a trend over a couple years here and he's been taking almost all the sacks were off the edge of the second highest pressure to sack rate in the league. That's been a trend over a couple of years here. And he's been taking almost all of his sacks were off the edge of the second highest rate in the league at the time he went down in week six. And Moffay been quiet lately in terms of sacks. Seven on the season, though, getting like four or five pressures a game over the past two months.

Been real close. I think we can get over the hump here with even a half a sack plus money. And then Bryce Huff. Bryce Huff is for for the Jets we are playing the commanders here like kudos to to how Sam Howell's not taking sacks like he was early in the season still a great spot and Huff has been awesome he's got three sacks in the past four weeks he's third in pff's pressure per snap metric um he's second um in like just overall snaps third in like you in designated passing downs,

and doesn't play as much, but played a season-high snaps last week. I just think he's going to be in a great spot here. Same, plus 100 for a quarter sack. If you're looking to get down on those, those are both on DraftKings. Those would be my favorite sack looks for the week. So, Connor, we can jump into the questions here. Awesome. Yeah, I'm excited for your defensive props when those get released here. All right. So we got Bobby big wheels off the top. How do we feel about Canadian kid Chuba Hubbard

breaking loose for 80 plus yards at plus money? Noonan, I think you're in on that, right? Yes, sir. Yeah. Plus money. What is it? 69 and a half, I think is his actual rushing prop. So yeah, you can, you can chase this. I think he's been like at least 94 in the last three games. So, yeah, he's been doing it. Yeah, love it. Shark Burners here said he hit a negative correlation on Alvin Kamara. I'm guessing receptions and like over receptions and under yards. I was thinking about this.

I thought about it. What a good play, Shark Burners. I am so jealous because i looked at it and i didn't put it in so um i know a lot of people were on his yards but that turned out to be caked it was just about the receptions i guess hit the jayden reed one last week the jayden reed one was uh fantastic because he caught a ball um and then went out like limped off the fields and uh was very excited saw that he was at 52 we needed under 54 and a half and that's the perfect injury because he's not actually like really hurt hurt really hurt

it's like you don't want to take the rest of the game off get yourself right come back next week i like it you're losing there's only 10 minutes left on this game yeah relax so yeah that was uh that was fantastic uh 701 on uh Reed, which was a nice play. Yeah, that's a good hit. Jeff Stenberg commenting on the kids situation. Having kids is for dummies. Imagine having to spend money on clothes and food for some little idiot and not using it to gamble.

Devastating. I think that's a pretty fair take. It's a valid point. I mean, it does have a little bit. It seems like something you'd tweet, to be honest. Yeah. Now, Jeff's my alter ego, but, like, he really exists. Yeah.

Amazing. Oh, man. Noonan, I'm curious about this one. I've been looking at it. Justin Watson, 17 yards over minus 121 ladders. Kadarius Toney banged up for the millionth time, maybe not playing. Justin Watson was pretty stable.

Sky Moore's IR, right? I don't know. Yeah, Sky Moore's on the IR. He's so irrelevant that it doesn't even matter. I know. You actually want Sky Moore out there running routes, so that way that one guy's eliminated. You don't have to worry about him catching grass. He just runs cardio. It's just unbelievable how bad he is. It's way, that one guy's eliminated. You don't have to worry about catching grass.

He just runs cardio. It's just like unbelievable how bad he is. It's just truly like... It's crazy. Yeah. So yeah, obviously Rasheed Rice is like settled in. Yeah. Yeah, exactly.

Rasheed Rice settling is the number one guy. Travis Kelsey, you know, as the, you know, obviously constant force. But they're going to take two or three shots, Justin Watson. I think I'd almost prefer to take like 25 plus 30 plus 40 plus then 17 Noonan thoughts there. Same thing. Yeah.

I mean, look at the average of the target in the season. It's just to take over 20 last couple of games, 25, 18, 37. Like he's, you know, the way that they go at him and that's like, you know, two, one, one, I had three targets last game. So that's probably part of the, part of the love. So yeah, it's just, it's the way to play him. You play his longest reception, play the highest level of ladder that you can grab would probably be the way

to play Justin Watson anytime you're ever, ever considering it. So. Yep. Yeah. Love it. Chris Boswell over one and a few goals. Jeff has been cashing his kicker props and then adding me every time I laugh at them on Twitter, which has been good. It's been a good tradition.

So, yeah, I mean, plus money, they're probably going to kick at least two, three field goals. It feels like a first-half line, Jeff. Yeah, and Sharkburner's tailing. Nice. All right. Love that. Bobby Bigwheel is coming back at you, Noonan, here. Corlin Sutton has cashed the longest reception line in seven straight. This is Noonan written all over Corlin Sutton has cashed the longest reception line in seven straight.

This is Noonan written all over it. Any thoughts this week on it? We did it last week. Successfully got there, I think, fairly early in the game too, which was nice. Yeah, he's – look, you can't run against New England, surprisingly still. Like, they are giving up the lowest explosive. I actually looked at, like – I haven't done this yet – an under on the longest

rush uh giovante williams seems interesting giovante williams is like like one explosive rush all season new england has the lowest explosive rush rate allowed kind of feels like a nice marriage uh maybe i'm leading connor to water on something there but uh that feels like a counter play more than than something i would do but yeah sutton again we know russ it's moon balls and check downs and. And Sutton is the leader there. Connor's on an under on Jerry Judy, which I think is a tough spot there too. New England plays a decent amount of man. I have no reason to think that this is, and he hasn't even really been, last week I think he got 23 yards. I was like the closest he's been to even flirting with

the line. He's been like 30 pretty consistently in this little run here. So yeah, I like it quite a bit. Yeah. Corlin Sutton has grit. Jerry Judy does not have any grit. Negative, you know, kind of the same thing there. So we're going to, you know, I'm fading Judy, but I think Sutton is probably solid. We popped that back up. Is Bobby Big Wheels at a jump park here?

What are we doing? Yeah, I don't know. I can't really see. Bobby Big Wheels either has kids or he's the reason that you have to like verify that your kids are leaving with you as an adult because he's he's either hanging out there by himself uh which is problematic um or he also has kids so you can chime in on uh lots of being a dad at this time of year but uh yeah that's so good uh jeff stemberg straight up just ripped my stat from twitter and copied and pasted

in the chat miami is eight no and tyree gets 100 plus receiving yards they're one and four when he doesn't rams will be important thank you for stealing my stat jeff um that i posted on twitter like an hour ago so you know i i uh jeff yeah you know shout out to you steve that's better than some of the touts in the space that are out there stealing pics and uh reposting the pics that come out like 20 minutes later i love that that's my favorite you're watching this like dude this is so obvious that you're doing this but like you're doing it like that's all right yeah they didn't do anything it caught at all like i mean i don't know like everyone knows what's going on in the space and if your tweet does well which is the point then like people are just going to see it and be like well this is posted elsewhere 20 minutes ago so so it doesn't it's just so weird

the space is just hitting a total wall right now it's like all these like people are just like i i had a great time with that tweet the other day the guy calls it a lock and everyone's mad i'm for it it's like i mean i don't know if if you think it's a lock then just say it you know what i mean but i mean like all those people i know you're talking about yeah the caruso joel and b yeah and it's like bro like that's i mean that's what you think then to say what it is but they were killing them for it but it's like all right but i mean like oh they say like uh the stat itself was a lie that's what we was using but it's like dude if you're reading the stats that he was using like they're they were weren't great stats like make what we was using. But it's like, dude, if you're reading the stats that he was using,

like there, there were, weren't great stats, like make a play on. So anyway, so it's like, what does it matter? And it's not,

I mean, just like George Cassandra said, it's not a lie if you believe it. So there's that. So big part of it. Yeah. We had some people in the discord asking me about that. And,

you know, I gave, gave my honest opinion. Caruso is a really nice guy. I met him in real life. He And, you know, I gave, gave my honest opinion. Caruso is a really nice guy. I met him in real life. He just, you know, some interesting verbiage and things I don't believe in and uses counts,

alt plays on records. Like, you know, sleeper does like alternate, like lowered lines. And, but he counts those as like regular and doesn't. No,

that's, you can't do that. So yeah. Prices to Alex, if you're watching use prices, bro, like put the price of the play there. You can just to use prices too. Alex, if you're watching, use prices, bro. Like put the price of the play there. You can't just put over 57 and a half yards.

Are we airing grievances? This is an airing of grievances. I love this. That's it though. Other than that, like I don't even mind that, dude, if you want to say, hey, this is a lock. I mean, obviously if you've ever read anything I've written, then you know I probably agree with this. But like if you say, hey, I'm like going to bet my mortgage like responsibly on this, then, you know I probably agree with this. But if you say, hey, I'm going to bet my mortgage responsibly on this,

then okay. You know what I mean? I'm not saying you do it. I'm just saying that's what I'm doing. I think there's no chance this loses. That's why I bet money on it. Six units. Yeah, he took six units on that.

I was like, dude, the only thing – I wish he would have done it for 10. If it's the best play of all time, then why not just put 10 units on it and be like why six you know what a random number yeah i don't know no you know he probably went in once and then went back at it and then like he kept going but like that's how you get to six whenever you just keep going back at it you're like you know what i'll put another one on there and then finally he stopped there i'm not gonna lie i bet the opposite at plus money just because that tweet pissed me off so much because I was like... You were an under guy too. Yeah.

Well, fuck this. I mean, it's 250,000 followers. So he tweeted it out and a bunch of people bet it so it obviously gets steamed the other way or steamed that way. So I was able to under it plus 125. I'm just on a regular number. So I was like, well, all right. I i mean it's

maybe the greatest play of all time for a six you know lock but i think the reasoning is pretty dumb so i'm going to take the under yeah so that was that was my part like the reasoning like just like bro like don't worry about the reasoning that's over there like that was that was problematic but like the language i was like all right i mean kid believe in a pick what do you want to do what do you want to say it's not a lock like he thinks it is anyways anyways every pick says lock all of the picks say lock i love that and like they still say lock they still say lock he is yeah he gets to the point right away like just like yo walk you're like all right well awesome like i want to read about a lock i think what do you mean is this

does that mean does that mean bets like this is what i'm betting on like a lot of in because to us i think a lot of it means like this is guaranteed to win so like the clarity versus like i'm betting on this versus i guarantee this is winning yeah it's something i think he's got to kind of work through maybe teach their own like it's your your twitter account it's working for you i mean marketing yes him and bucket with we talked about him last week, are just absolutely murdering the game from a marketing standpoint. It is an un-industrial. Let them cook.

These guys are cooking. Let them go. See what happens. It's fun. It's your account. While we're on it, if you just all air a grievance, maybe a little bit more in my fields. Have you guys ever bet any prop live? It's maybe a little bit more, you know, in my fields, you know, if you guys ever, you bet any prop live,

it's very hard, right? Like the markets are fluctuating so much. It's impossible. Tackles, like you'll see just massive swings off the board, on the board. It's like all the time. And you know, there are other people. I'm not the only one out here betting defensive props. Other people in the space, you know, it it's it's part of what they do um i think it's kind of like really shady to count live bets that no one could possibly tail in your win-loss record and uh you played yeah you played six plays this week three of them were live you went three on your live bets that literally no one else can tail so yeah the the only time i've seen that work

so like steve and run pure and like this one guy nuked the house or whatever they do like a live show like the entire game for like four hours and like they're talking the entire time and they're like i'm betting this now and like anyone is live watching that's like in my opinion the only way that you can get that to work unless it's like halftime or like even at halftime it's like they probably got like two minutes to do it you know what i mean yeah you don't like that's the only way that you can get that to work unless it's like half time or like even at half time it's like they probably got like two minutes to do it you know what i mean yeah you don't like that's the only way it works you can't count though i mean i don't know if you want to like show your picket slip like show like you know how property how profitable you are something like that but like yeah when it comes to like what you went out the subs yeah really because there's no way you would bet that

it's happening more and more and it's uh you know i mean it probably bothers me more when i have like you know a losing week or 500 for the week and it's like oh yeah we went five and one and it's like you played two things you know pre-game and you played four things live and no one else could ever possibly get those and that kind of sucks sucks, but whatever, like it's again, your accounts, your business, um, house space though, man. It's,

it's so much like, like real life WWE. You know what I mean? Like it's, it just is like, it's just all personalized and they're all just fucking wild. It's just that you just do whatever you want to do. And you just see what,

what like quote unquote works and what doesn't. It's just, it's fun to me. I like watch. I'll be honest with you. I like doesn't. It's fun to me. I like watching. I'll be honest with you. I like to stir the pot a little bit because I like watching the guys. They get so mad. And when you think about it, just zoom out for a second.

You realize none of this shit really matters. So don't get that mad. I mean, you can get ticked off. There can be things that bother you. But some guys, they just start going in. And you're like, bro, I just want to watch it. It's just fun to watch. Yeah. There's like three clear divides. It's like there like the plus ev grinders who like pro bettors there's like the newish or like the old prop community who is like you know like you

like maybe like got like prop bomb you know like uh prop bet guy things like that we've been grinding for a while and then there's like the new group who's like caruso salvitri and like you know uh joel holka that just tweet nuke and then terrible reasoning. Literally just the dumbest things you've ever read. They get insane engagement. It's wild stuff. I might start doing the lock for the first

word. I got to get a better word. I don't want to copy. I don't really like the goat one. I don't know. Let's start with this play cannot lose. Like that's, I mean, that says it's somewhere in the tweet anyways.

Don't put it up top. You know what I mean? Like there's some way of saying it. All right. What else we got, Connor? Anything else that wrap us up? Yeah.

Let me see. I don't think that, I think that was about it. We had a nice little, yeah. All right. I'll run through these quick. Alex,

mom's spaghetti, Erickson. That's great. these quick. Alex, mom's spaghetti, Erickson. That's great. Uh, PD rock shot. P rock. Always active in the discord. Finally catching live show.

Merry Christmas. Merry Christmas to you. Um, sneaky. My uncle Scotch at Christmas is a great tradition. Love that Jeff ETN over 86 and a half combo yards. Slop. Any thoughts there?

No, I don't like the combo stuff it's i mean i don't know sure that could hit i'm not saying that but i just do not just go to that market ever so i'm probably the wrong guy to ask yeah i think we need to see t law stuff here first yeah i look at it first i don't even run i looked Cook. He was one of my favorites. Then I was like, yeah, I'm good. It's just because you... I don't know. Yeah, 100%. What's up, Jax? What's up, bro? That's Connor.

You know Connor. That's Slop. Yep, Slop. Love it. What's up, buddy? Oh, man. What a great episode. The kids. Hello, Coco. Hello, Coco. it oh man what a great episode the kids the sandlot too look at that there you go amazing

all right i think that's about it yeah yeah. All right, good fest of this episode. We appreciate it. We talked about it a little bit, regardless of what you are believing in this time of year, how you're looking to celebrate, eggnog, scotch, whatever it is. You get a nice little long weekend. I hope it comes with winners, a little to no stress, good food, good beverages, as much quality time with the people you want, quality time with as possible. Like I said, hopefully winning bets as well. So for Connor and Slop, I'm Ryan. This is Jax. We'll see you next time. Thanks, everybody. you