Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 17 2023 Player PROP BETS | Top Picks, Predictions & Odds | Chris Olave & More!

Episode Date: December 29, 2023

Dive into the thrilling world of NFL Week 17 player prop bets and explore the 2023 season's standout player prop bets. Your ultimate guide for expert insights on top selections, NFL forecasts, and bet...ting odds, spotlighting the likes of Chris Olave and other NFL players. We provide unique perspectives on the most enticing NFL player prop bets for Week 17, perfect for both experienced wagerers and those new to the scene.Our goal is to elevate your betting journey with tactical wisdom and professional advice, helping you to achieve greater triumphs in your NFL Week 17 betting endeavors.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow John on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/sloprulesVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Hello and welcome to Move the Line Prop Drop Show presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. I am Ryan Noonan back to talk about the best way, the most profitable way to bet on NFL football, and that is through player props. We are live here a little bit earlier than normal on the 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel. We are here to talk Week 17 props and take your questions. So if you're hanging out with us now live on the stream, we greatly appreciate that.
Starting point is 00:00:42 We appreciate folks who have been riding live with us all season. It's been a great time. As you know, our favorite part is the end of the show. We can get to as many questions as you can. Jump in the chat. Let us know what your favorite prop look is for the week. Pretty full board. Injury reports coming out Friday afternoons. Very busy. So maybe some stuff that's not out yet that you're looking at. Let us know. We want our opinion on that. We'll happy to get to that as well again joining us live on youtube if you're new it's the best chance for you to get the same number and price on these props they move very quickly we have a very thirsty audience that we appreciate but uh you know podcast is available as well later on friday evening wherever you listen to podcasts as well
Starting point is 00:01:19 subscribe to both so you don't miss a show i will be continuing to roll here all the way through the playoffs the super bowl um checking us out uh we appreciate it for the first time joining us here So you don't miss a show. I will be continuing to roll here all the way through the playoffs, the Super Bowl. Checking us out. We appreciate it for the first time. Joining us here as always from location unknown, background ever-changing, country probably ever-changing as well. Connor Allen, what's going on, buddy? Yeah, I found random office space here. And it says think outside the box. So that's what we're going to do today. We're going to get some off the wall, outside the box plays,
Starting point is 00:01:47 just channel that energy right now. I'm in Playa del Farm in Mexico, just feeling the vibes and excited to bring you some winners, you know. So some betting methods a little unconventional this weekend, but, you know, hey, we're getting the money down, cashing checks and bringing winners. You've got to love, you know, Connor, always on, almost always on vacation um you know just challenging he's you know he's definitely top five in the company in vacations uh you know but
Starting point is 00:02:11 i respect it still here working though right so like oh we have people that take vacations that don't do a thing and connor's still grinding here for the people so um so what's going on buddy i'd argue that you guys have people that don't take vacations but also don't do a thing, but I digress. That's a thing too, bud. Where are you, Connor? I'm in Playa del Carmen, Mexico. I'll be in Cancun tomorrow for the next week or so, though.
Starting point is 00:02:41 Sweet. I live vicariously through, Connor. I'm about to go to a fourth grade girls basketball game right after this so there's that not to brag i mean also almost the same thing myself but uh hey man i can't wait dude i got three that i have like three that i absolutely love that i seriously probably can't lose i don't know if you guys remember last week but i did not lose i don't think uh except for the ones that i did i think it's what but i think we're sweeping again though because there's
Starting point is 00:03:08 three that are just obvious yeah no there's a couple i've seen some stuff on you know the twitter feed going today some stuff i agree with um so i think we're going to be in a pretty good spot i got a bunch today connor and i have one that's that was shared uh one that i really like that was on the board and came off the board. I really don't know why. So talk about that. I'm going to just probably rapid fire at some point, who typically will rapid fire some defensive stuff as well. Don't forget to check out Slop on Twitter at Slop Rules and all the stuff on Odds Jam as well. That's him.
Starting point is 00:03:38 You're going to want that stuff. So good stuff as always there. This is the second episode of Move the Line each week. We do game preview shows early in the week. This week it was Thursday. Also, again, it doesn't matter if you just subscribe to the 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel or the podcast feed. You will get that.
Starting point is 00:03:55 That's me, Connor, Sharp Clark, talking more sides and totals, more game breakdowns and previews and stuff like that. Did that yesterday. Check it out. You can also scoop up the betting subscription if you want to get all the official plays. Connor and I put these plays out here on the show. These are things that we're actually playing,
Starting point is 00:04:12 but little do you know, we actually give them to our subscribers a couple of minutes earlier. So we want to reward our people that take care of us because sometimes these lines move quickly. We want to make sure we do that for them as well. If you want in on that, you can head over to 404.com slash plans. Again plans again gets you access to everything that we do at 404
Starting point is 00:04:29 still betting nba again that's going to take you through the end of february you can bet with us for the rest of the year feels like we're wrapping up because we're week 17 still again like all the playoff weeks super bowl stuff all that you can check it out over on the website more information here on uh in the show notes if you scroll down here a little bit. So, all right, Connor. No stale bread, live lines. You can get us started here with week 17. What are we looking to do?
Starting point is 00:04:54 Yeah, we're getting it started off top here. We're going to go with Chris Olave over 66.5 receiving yard. Was this one a flop? Yeah. I'm just kidding. I love this, though. It was almost it was my backup one so now now i'm screwed if you guys take one love it love it yeah he's coming
Starting point is 00:05:13 off of a monster game 123 yards but i'm ready to go back to the bottle here because we're looking at a lobby without michael thomas 94 114 119 28 where he was injured mid-game, and then 123 receiving yards. Now it draws the Bucs, who've been ripped by multiple different wideouts over the last few weeks, including Drake London for 172, Brandon Ayoub for 156, and Michael Pittman for 107. I mean, there are tons of good receivers who have just absolutely blown up against them. Their injury report still has problems. Looks like Carlton Davis, another linebacker, also might not play. And we're looking at also, on top of all this, Crystal Lave against
Starting point is 00:05:48 the Blitz, 30% target share. Tambay loves the Blitz. And Derek Barr, last time they played, I think people were a little bit scared because he didn't throw the ball downfield much. He checked the ball down a bunch, but he was injured. And so I don't think that really matters. I don't really put too much stock into that. He's been ripping the ball downfield. Lave could have 150
Starting point is 00:06:03 at half, like Amari Cooper. First half line, we joked about it on the show, it was a first half line. I like the over at 66 and a half, and I played 90, 100, 110, 120 plus. Yep, absolutely love it. Of all the reasons you said, I love the blitz angle, too.
Starting point is 00:06:20 I think that that's really nice. Again, we joked about it on the game preview show. That was a week four matchup the first time they played, and there was no practice at all for Carr in that game. Everyone was surprised he even played. And then he just checked out all game. We had like 61% of his completions in that game were at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Starting point is 00:06:42 Just insane. Gamora probably had 1,000 passes. 13 for 33 yards. It's so hard to do. So, yeah, I just think it's a very different scenario. So if you're just, you know, again, using a singular data point in their previous matchup to make your handicap here, I think that's a massive mistake.
Starting point is 00:06:57 So there's a ton of ways you can play it. I love the ladder situation because, I mean, that's 66 and a half, 65 and a half was out there not too long ago too yeah just just push push the ceiling here we've seen it quite a bit here for for a lobby so yeah absolutely love it uh slop any thoughts here do we we steal one of yours uh no this is uh this place perfect uh tampa is where you go if you want to target receivers like i'm a big pass game guy always have been and that that like they are the exact type team you're looking for for a receiver. And then given the fact that Carr just loves Alave, you can just tell.
Starting point is 00:07:32 The game last – I think it was Thursday night, the last time they played. I mean, Alave I think had like four receptions on the first drive. I mean, it was just like – just throw to Alave. Like that's the play. Now you got Tampa, not great pass defense. Also, too, you got the angle of maybe the line suppressed a little bit just because of what happened last time. But you're right.
Starting point is 00:07:52 Carr, like, his shoulder was, like, barely on his body for that game. You know what I mean? Like, he couldn't even throw two yards down the field. So you can't even look at that. That game doesn't even count. Like, I took it out of my personal records. It's gone. I erased it. So, yeah, a lot of a lot of a and then if you want more just go more a lot
Starting point is 00:08:10 of a yeah love it uh how about you slop first one for you for uh 17 all right so if you've been following on twitter you know i'm on step five of the ladder i kind of changed the ladder a little bit uh instead of start with 10, I start with 100. I don't know if you guys are familiar with math, but that cuts out multiple steps. So it's a seven-step ladder. Almost to 10K. I'm at the $1,300 one.
Starting point is 00:08:34 It's got to be Jake Ferguson. The thing is, everybody's asking, I got it at 45 and a half the other day. Would you still play it at the current line? I would say yes. We'll do it 50 plus at FanDuel, minus 108. He's gotten eight targets in each of the last four games. He's a part of the Cowboys offense. He is what, he's a part of it. It's not just CeeDee Lamb. It's not just Dak and the other
Starting point is 00:08:57 receivers. He's a big part. The last two home games where Dak actually plays well, he caught, like I've been thinking with-plus in both of them. I mean, he's all over the place. The guy is nasty. Last two games, he was just below this number. He was in the mid-40s, I think, is where he finished. That was Dak's fault. That wasn't his fault.
Starting point is 00:09:15 Like, he had multiple targets that, like, should have been catchable balls, weren't even close to him. But, again, Dak plays better at home. We got the Lions. We're probably going to score all over the Cowboys. I'd say they're going to hang probably 25-plus points. Cowboys are going to have to do something to stay with them. I think they can because the Lions can't cover anybody. The Vikings' tight end room just won 100-plus on them last week.
Starting point is 00:09:36 This is just easy money, easy money, 50-pluses. I mean, I'd be shocked if they don't go ahead and credit your account with a win after you put this in. I'm serious. Just go ahead and credit. Just give you the money. It's over. That allows you to bet on more things, right? It's smart of them because you know the rounds. Just save the time. Get back in there.
Starting point is 00:09:58 Receptions are four and a half. That's pretty juicy too. Any interest in receptions or anything like that half that's pretty juicy too um yeah any uh any interest in like what receptions or anything like that or just like the receiving yards the yards i don't like the five reception like he's gotta get five and it's like minus one thousand i mean it's like just way too high you know what i mean so you basically would have to go six plus at that point i'm not ready to do that but i like he's to take one for 30 plus yards. Watch. It's going to be one of those stupid dump ball plays.
Starting point is 00:10:28 The play goes one way. It comes out the other way. They dump it off to him. We've seen it a million times, and he just flies down the field for 30 yards. There's going to be stuff like that. It's on Saturday night, too. I did us a favor. We have a game of viewing now, Saturday night.
Starting point is 00:10:44 Feels good. Gentlemen. It's great because I bet Jared Goff under, and so you're betting it over. I think that's a nice little sandwich there. So, you're not just, like, hating yourself the entire game, watching every Jared Goff check down when he lands on, like, 230 yards. We sweat out the entire game to land under. You're going to be able to run it.
Starting point is 00:11:02 Your Ferguson thing is going to hit in the first half. Exactly. Well, the Lions are going to be able to run it, so you're Ferguson, then it's going to hit in the first half. Exactly. Well, the Lions are going to be able to run it. So it's going to ruin golf. Like I already been through this in my brain, like the mental simulation I did, not great for golf.
Starting point is 00:11:12 Golf. I've been debating how you, how to play the running back situation, because I think Gibbs is probably going to play a lot. Cause like if they fall behind, like Gibbs will be the guy, but if they stay with them, I mean,
Starting point is 00:11:23 David Montgomery is going to see like 20 carries. But his price is like 13 and a half rushes, looking at like 50 yards. So it's like – but I'm just worried. If they fall like two scores behind, it might just be a lot of Jameer Gibbs. I don't know what to do with that. You know what I mean? I'm staying away. That's the best thing to do.
Starting point is 00:11:40 Maybe it's just like hit like Montgomery 100 plus or something like that. Or maybe Gibbs and Montgomery 70-plus. Because one of them is going to hit. I just don't know which one. Well, then do one of them rush it like the 100-plus and then Montgomery and then Gibbs receiving over, you know what I'm saying, a ladder. So that way, you know what I'm saying, if either game script hits, one of those is going to hit.
Starting point is 00:12:02 Maybe even both. Dallas looked pretty bad trying to tackle people. Not great. It's hard to do, tackle people. It's in their defense. It's not easy. These are big dudes. I wouldn't be able to tackle them. I wouldn't even try.
Starting point is 00:12:22 I'd go right at the legs. I don't want to be i don't want to judge uh because it's uh it's a tricky it's a tricky thing so connor can probably tackle these guys i mean he can beat davante parker yeah i mean davante parker i don't know if i can guard mbs but i think that even if i two step behind him he still would drop the ball so yeah i don't think he would catch the ball either because he sucks i mean he is he's as bad as davante maybe worse honestly he's one of the worst receivers in the league i just wanted to let connor get a nice davante parker dig in there now he's got mbs with him let's tie him all together just drag him down yeah i mean if mbs's prop wasn't like 15 yards every week,
Starting point is 00:13:05 I would just bet the under. But it's like he's out there like past the game, almost the whole game, with Patrick Mahomes and still can't clear 15 yards. What a bummer. I bet, yeah, Conor could probably tackle MBS. Yeah, I mean, Conor thinks he's really fast still. We had this argument at the bar one night.
Starting point is 00:13:25 So, like, Conor has no shot of keeping up with MVS to even try to take him down. The problem is MVS also doesn't catch the ball, so he never needs to be tackled. That's part of the problem. Yeah, that's true. There's that too. Yeah, if you could walk away from that game and be like, dude, I would have tackled him, but he never got the ball.
Starting point is 00:13:41 Like he cheated. 100%. Yeah, exactly. It's not my fault he doesn't catch it yeah like what do you like he's got to catch it before you can tackle him otherwise that'd be a penalty connor's no cheat yeah straight arrow all right let me give you my first one here uh this is a little bit different you know i've played in this this sandbox a little bit, but I haven't gone specifically here ever before. We are going to go with Brock Purdy, getting back on the Brock Purdy train. Longest pass completion, over 40 and a half yards.
Starting point is 00:14:16 This is minus 110 on DraftKings. This is readily available. You can get minus 110 on MGM as well. 121 on Caesars. Pretty straightforward, to be honest. This is a matchup between the Niners, who lead the league in explosive pass rate. They are facing the Washington Commanders, the defense that allows the highest rate of explosive plays in the league.
Starting point is 00:14:39 Now, we just had the injury report come out for the Commanders. They are without both starting cornerbacks, Benjamin St. Juice and Kendall Fuller, and their other starting safety, Percy Butler. So we are running out, again, these guys that have been part of it and allowing the massive explosive plays. These are their best players. Those guys are now out. So we're in a spot here where the 49ers are really hard to pinpoint.
Starting point is 00:15:04 If you want to play longest reception, it's like whack-a-mole. Like it could be any guy in any given week because they got so many ways to do it. So like they need this game. They want to bounce back after an ugly loss. You know, Shanahan used to coach here. You know, they fired his dad. He wants to come up to Washington, play the commanders, and absolutely boat race them here. So like even last week, tough game.
Starting point is 00:15:25 Purdy didn't look good, struggled. He hit Kittle for a 58-yard catch and run. This is kind of what they do. And, you know, you get what? He's seven of eight. He's done this in 10 of 15 this year. And like, again, we know yak machine that this team is. Obviously, they lead the league in yak per reception.
Starting point is 00:15:42 Commanders are the only team that are allowing over seven adjusted net yards per pass attempt like it's just a perfect marriage for this play 40 and a half seems huge but again he's done it in seven and eight he did it last week when he struggled so absolutely love the spot and uh yeah purdy again you don't have to worry about is it kittle is it iuk is it uh debo you know is it like jennings i can give mcafree it could be any of them uh we're gonna get 40 and a half somewhere, 41 yards for Purdy on one of his completions here. Connor, what do you think here? We haven't dipped our toes in long as completion yet.
Starting point is 00:16:13 Yeah, it's been a while, but I think that's probably the move here because I just don't know how competitive Washington's going to be, especially to go back to Sam Powell here, looking like right before we hopped on the show, he was injured. It was some weird reports. Like he like hopped on a call and was like,
Starting point is 00:16:25 I don't know if I'm going to be able to play or something like that with Rivera. Very weird reasoning there about what's going on. But yeah, I think the longest completions or longest receptions, things like that in this game is probably the move. Someone's going to be just not really sure who to be on this. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:16:41 And we're going to have to pick it, Slop. We just picked the quarterback. No, that's actually the smart move move it's funny because earlier this season i was thinking how much worse could like washington be defending the pass they are like historically bad and it's kind of cool that we get to figure that out you know what i mean this week with having not their starters and so yeah i don't see i don't see how this doesn't hit the only way this doesn't hit is if i party gets pulled but i think party's gonna look like mvp party this week so he got you know what i mean like so he's got the whole bad experience last week working with them kind of
Starting point is 00:17:16 going into this week against just again a team that can't defend anybody they couldn't defend connor here we go look at this i mean get me, get me out there. I could be burning what's the little 5'7 guy, short king out there that they drafted. Emmanuel Forbes, though, to us? I mean, yeah. Yeah, Forbes. Yeah, Forbes weighs – he's like 6'1", 115, soaking wet. So he's going to be supposedly having to cover Ayuk and Debo.
Starting point is 00:17:45 And he's been so good that they've benched him for part of the season. So he's up. Jartavius Martin, another rookie that they drafted, who's a little bit of a dog, to be honest. Like he came out. Illinois, the U of I only produces absolute dogs at cornerback. I think Jartavius Martin has a little bit of that, but he has been cooked in coverage.
Starting point is 00:18:04 So like a guy that can tackle at cornerback isn't always great in terms of coverage. That means he gives up a lot of receptions. So they'll be chasing some of these guys down. Maybe they tackle them. Maybe they don't, but Purdy will get one. That's at least 41 yards this week for sure.
Starting point is 00:18:17 So love this one. Wish they had alts, you know, wish we could take over, you know, over 55 and a half or some plus money, but we're not there yet. All right, spicy time.
Starting point is 00:18:27 Connor, back to you. Same game parlays, round robins. What are we doing? We had some alts that hit last week, so let's keep the train rolling. Yes, I'm going to do something a little fun here. Thinking outside the box, I'm going to release a play because it's part of my alts because I got one more after, so I'm going to release a play at the same time as we talk about the alts.
Starting point is 00:18:49 I'm going with Nico Collins over 59 and a half receiving yards uh as my main play uh but i like all the alts like 100 plus and everything here i mean they're fine cj's job's back clearing concussion protocol titan's allowance 120 yards per game outside wide where nico lines up almost exclusively texans without tank dell nico's like a 28 target here nearly three yards per outrun. So we're getting a massive discount. Great situation. Texans need to win. This is one of those things that they're going to be gunning the entire game
Starting point is 00:19:12 in a great matchup. And his line's just too low. If Stroud had been playing for two weeks, we would see this line at 73. I don't know if you guys remember, but Niko Collins' line against the Jets opened at 73 without tanked out. Now we're getting him at 59 against the Titans. I mean, make it make sense. You know, that's just – the logic is not there. So I like the – I think we're looking at the alts here.
Starting point is 00:19:39 If we go back to my alts last week, Amari smacked. Gabe Davis alts smacked. Hyreek fell like 10 yards short. DJ Moore got injured in the first play of the game so i don't even count that one but if you round robin did like i did um you won some money you were profitable because you're betting on alts um so this week i like nico alts like 100 plus alve 100 plus and then two other ones if pacheco doesn't play my home's like 325 my home's 350 really interesting in my mind um that's a good one uh and then one more that i'm kind of eyeing would be maybe something like bijan robinson receiving yards i don't think they're going to be able to run the ball that well but like 40 plus receiving yards something
Starting point is 00:20:22 like that could be kind of fun um as another little alt leg there but stay tuned join the discord i'll be dropping my alts alts of the week in there officially but those are the ones that i like you know kind of popular on friday some interesting ones in there for sure some stuff uh again we are you know again you typically we're a lot closer in distance to each other you We're both here in the Chicagoland area. Now you're in Mexico, but I feel like our connection's even stronger this week with some of these plays. So there's some stuff in there that I liked here.
Starting point is 00:20:54 Slop, where do you go, bud? Where are we going? Where are we going for Spicy this week? Going back to my guy. I'm going to keep betting this until it hits. But anything Jamison Williams. It's Saturday night again. We need more than just one guy on Saturday night, but Jamison Williams, I'm telling you, I'm not stopping with this. He's going to break a slant route and take it 80 yards,
Starting point is 00:21:19 something stupid. That's going to happen with the way that they're using him. It just hasn't happened yet. He was on the field, I think, 45-plus snaps last two weeks. He's running routes. He's getting targeted. I think six last week, maybe seven, seven the week before, something like that. So he's getting looks. All that's fine.
Starting point is 00:21:36 He's finishing over 40 yards. I think, again, 80-plus is in play. That's like plus 630 at FanDuel right now. I think you could probably get a better number somewhere else. I'm not looking at Fanatics at the moment. Or I think last week was it Caesars? Somebody brought in Caesars with I think it was like plus 1,200 where we were getting 800 at FanDuel.
Starting point is 00:21:59 So I would shop around here definitely is all I'm trying to say. But he's going to have one. I'm telling you that's going to happen. The kid is way too fast for that he's being used in multiple different ways now they're gonna have to throw the ball here and there i mean if they get behind we're gold like so they can't sit on it with montgomery like we're talking about earlier but man 80 plus feels good if you want i did the 40 plus it was plus 188 it's plus 130 now i would take that i would take that right now and then cover yourself for your uh longer leg of the ladder so yeah there it is 1200 1200
Starting point is 00:22:31 tim broderick what's up dude that's my guy tim he's an awesome guy but anyways yeah plus 1200 fanatic so take fanatics plus 1200 and then get your 40 plus somewhere else now you now it's a party you know because you're going to catch one and then now you're-plus somewhere else, now it's a party. Because you're going to catch one, and then now you're going to watch for the whole game for the rest of it. Always going to have at least two guys on Saturday nights. I think it's just always a good line to have, a good way to approach life. Connor, any thoughts on Jammo? I mean, we talked about it a few times here recently,
Starting point is 00:23:00 just upticking route participation. Targets are up. ADOT fluctuates. You've seen some like really low a dot games but like for jamo like to slop's point he's a catch and run guy too right he doesn't matter if it's a you know a deep throw down the field part of what we're looking here against the cowboys team plays a lot of man plays a lot of single high that actually bodes well for some big play stuff too yeah the man bit is really i think important and could lead to a really explosive play for jmo
Starting point is 00:23:26 because the rest of the guys i mean almond rock can get open in short intermediate spaces against man pretty easily but you know jmo is the guy who can take a slant to the house you know so i think that's what it'll probably take for you to daily plus here um but yeah i think that's that's probably a pretty solid angle here we're waiting for the breakout game i'm hoping that it's good enough for you to hit and good enough for my golf under to hit, but you know, we'll see that. Early in the game, they build a lead. So stay with me here. They build it now we're just in, you know,
Starting point is 00:23:55 we're sitting on the ball from the lion side, the cowboy sides, looking for Jake, trying to find Jake. Everyone wins. Love it. Love it. That actually bodes well too for Connor. If you want to start to work in some of that like lions running back stuff you know montgomery like you're building a you're very much telling yourself a story and building out the way that game goes where it becomes run heavy in the second half they had a couple of big plays in the passing game all coming together you know you just got to see it you got to see it just got a little artist painting a picture yeah that's that's really good so you know connor i talked briefly before the show and we ended up both having the alave play which we put out as a as a joint play
Starting point is 00:24:34 part of it was that i had a play on uh jsn that i really like jackson smith and jigba i don't know why it came down it's not on the board everywhere but, but I like Jackson Smith and Jim, but I pivoted because in my spicy section, I wanted to talk about a lava because I love the spot for a lava. We talked about the ladders and then we can also bring in Mike Evans because we have no Marshawn Lattimore here. And, you know, we know that that matchup has been kind of,
Starting point is 00:25:00 you know, contested over the years, been pretty heated. They've really shut down. A lot of more has been balling, but he hasn't been around for a little while. So 100 on DraftKings, if you can get down. I am not able to on DraftKings.
Starting point is 00:25:12 They will allow me to bet 81 cents on this. 81 cents. 13 to 1 for 100 plus for both guys. Chris Olave, Mike Evans, 13 to 1 for 100 yards. Not even like crazy astronomical numbers for these guys. Fanatics, you just go up to 110 on Fanatics. 110 for Olave, 110 for Mike Evans, 28-1 on Fanatics. That is a fantastic play if you get down there. you can't get as much like i think caesars
Starting point is 00:25:47 i think only has like 95 plus uh esp in the same and you're like you know six to seven to you know eight and change i think so draft kings if you can 13 is nice if you want to risk it a little bit for another 10 yards uh fanatics and you can get down you know anything there 20 bucks whatever 28 to 1 on those two to i go for 110 plus i think is fantastic fantastic look so you want to add rashid jahid in there for a little bit like 50 plus i think she heeds very interesting this week i think it's like his lines all over the place uh in terms of like it's like 30 and a half juiced up to some 35 36 longest reception for shaheed is very interesting to me at 18 and a half like you can build the same game parlay put like a low threshold car number in there
Starting point is 00:26:29 and build some stuff there like we're in Florida that's gonna be like 65 really nice weather there's no concerns even though those guys are outside like you know I think we get some back and forth stuff like Connor mentioned Carlton Davis is out Lattimore's out like I think we get a little bit of back and forth in that game, in the passing game especially. So I'd like to just keep it simple with Olave and Evans, but you can add some layers there too and get a nice little same game parlay there. So slop any thoughts on a 20-1 from our friends at Fanatics?
Starting point is 00:26:57 I love that. I mean, that's just beautiful. That's a fun game to watch. And I think you're right. I think it can get into back and forth because I think if Tampa wins, they get the division, right? Win either one of the last two games, right? So, I mean, obviously they want to take care of it here.
Starting point is 00:27:14 But the Saints, I mean, not that they don't normally want to win. I'm not really a big into, like, motivation guy. But at the same time, that does count for something. Like, I don't know how much. But you're going to get their best effort. That's all I'm saying. So, it should be, yeah, a lot of Van Evans feels pretty right. Yeah, especially with the secondary injury.
Starting point is 00:27:35 So, all right, good. We are back to normal stuff. Connor, do you want to bring us your third play? We want Ryan, folks, too, if you're hanging out with us. Again, jump in the chat. Fire some stuff at us. We'll get to as many as we can here looks like we're training to have some time here to to get some some questions so anything you're looking at for week 17 let us know all right connor yeah so before i drop my last play here i want to let
Starting point is 00:27:58 the viewers and everyone know and give a quick shout out to producer sal as our last show together um you'll be moving on i just want to give a massive shout out any graphics anything basically the whole reason that this show took went to the next level is because of sal so you know i can't thank him enough here and i i was didn't want to do it again at the show because i wasn't sure i didn't want people to drop off because it means a lot he's done a lot for us and you know wishing him nothing but the best. Damn, again, Connor. Just absolutely swiping my host legs out from under me.
Starting point is 00:28:30 I had it for the end of the show. It's okay. I like it. He deserves his flowers now so we can do it. Before Sal jumped in the producer chair, this was two bozos doing a poorly produced podcast only. We had no YouTube presence. all the fun stuff like Connor mentions, you know, by in show
Starting point is 00:28:50 post show highlights. You know, someone's called me the kid from Sandlot the other day and Sal instantly turned around, you know, graphics and, you know, put up my, my picture as if I was the kid from, from Sandlot. So like any of the stuff that we've done for social channels, Sal's like pre-show attention to detail in organization is going to be massively missed at 444.
Starting point is 00:29:12 He's also edited nearly everything I've written at 444 in the past four years, Connor as well. So like no one behind the scenes has helped us more in the last four years since Connor and I have been here than sal so big tip of the cap to you my friend uh we appreciate you very much we will miss having you around uh that is for certain so uh best of luck and again like shout out to sal find him on
Starting point is 00:29:34 twitter uh he is uh just a great dude and we will miss him very much so uh cap tip cap tip to sal caps it to Sal. Good stuff. Nice work, Sal. 100%. On that note, nothing better than to get back to a juicy under. We're going to go with my guy Gabe Davis under 36.5 receiving yards. His spike games have actually been really predictable we
Starting point is 00:30:05 talked about his alts last week uh he has three games and zero receiving yards and two games of 100 receiving yards since joe brady took over um like we look at him basically against teams that have bad secondaries he's crushed teams with good secondaries you know not really playing all that well he's facing the patriots seven times in his career play a lot of man play kind of aggressive defense just 23 yards per game highest total 41 yards in those seven games so um you know not expecting a big day from here probably also likely very run heavy again even though the matchup doesn't fall for it the game script almost certainly does so not expecting a lot of volume not expecting you know them to push the ball down the field here so i could also feel getting digs more involved after he's been like basically non-existent and Kincaid more involved, you know,
Starting point is 00:30:46 non-existent for a while. So I think 36 and that's a bit too high here. So give me the under. Man, you have been giving the unders away from the show, but you came back with it today. So Slop, I don't know if you heard anything you said. I didn't hear anything. What did he say?
Starting point is 00:31:02 I stopped listening. It was my call. I didn't hear anything. What did he say? I stopped listening. I love the fact that he has the balls to go right back to Davis, but with the under, but I think he's right. It's either it's boom or bust, like literally, Gabe Davis. Yeah. Yeah. There was that. I think that's a good handicap there. there uh slop what do you got for us
Starting point is 00:31:28 all right we're gonna go the giants rams um trying to find a reason to watch this game so i was thinking darren waller 41 and or over 41 and a half receiving yards it's plus 105 at espn bet it's still there. Across the market, you could get lower, like over 38 and a half, and it's like minus 120-ish. So I was like, all right, give me a few more yards. Give me the plus money. So that's why I did it there. So just look around, see what's good for you. But Terod Taylor's starting, and he loves Darren Waller, guys, like he does. You can just see the look in his eyes, like Darren Waller, whenever Terod Taylor's out there.
Starting point is 00:32:07 They love each other. It's like last week, Terod Taylor comes in, immediately Darren Waller catches two balls. It was the last drive. It was late, but I'm just saying Tommy Cutlets couldn't get the ball anywhere near the guy. So, I mean, he targeted him early in the game. Waller did drop one.
Starting point is 00:32:22 Not his fault, though. Ball was probably slick. Maybe it was thrown a little hard. Maybe it had some, like, veal cutlery grease on it or something. I don't know. But whenever Terod Taylor throws that ball, he catches it. Two games started by Terod Taylor this season. He went over the summer in both of them, like five for 40-something on one
Starting point is 00:32:37 and then, like, seven for, like, 90-something on another. Look, Terod Taylor's no quitter. I mean, he's been in the league forever. So, he's coming out. I think the Rams score all over the Giants, so we should get game script kind of pushing us if we can't get it early. So let's go. I like this quite a bit.
Starting point is 00:32:54 There's also a three-and-a-half receptions at minus 115 out there as well. So that is on my list of things that I was going to rattle off today. But, yeah, we are. Gosh, I feel good about week 17, guys. I feel like there's just good juju going on here. Maybe the time slot, I don't know what's going on. It just feels like a new year.
Starting point is 00:33:14 Synergy on the streets. A lot of stuff going on here. All right. I don't have a third official because I talked about one at JSN, then it was going to be a lave, and Connor did it, and we kind of did it. So I'm going to give a few.
Starting point is 00:33:29 Two of them have already been mentioned. One was Waller over three and a half receptions. I think that's a great look. Shockingly, one I even touched and told you guys briefly before the show, I had one that I like quite a bit. It's kind of gross, and I thought you guys would hate it, especially Connor, and Connor mentioned it. Bijan Robinsoninson from a receiving
Starting point is 00:33:46 standpoint is very interesting here um i think that the i think that the falcons are going to really struggle to run the football the the bears rundy has been fantastic no team has given up more receiving yards by like a massive margin than the bears um second in targets second and receptions allowed uh but receiving yards by far the most i think 22 and a half is the line for bijan and we typically stay away from like running back receiving because it's really tough and um i don't know it's tricky so three and a half receptions plus money is out there too guy had 10 targets last week looking at some of the heinicke starts heinicke has favored checkdowns to bijan and it sets up as a good spot for him as well. You know, 31 routes run 10 targets last week. So however you want to play it, whether it's 22 and a half yards or the three and a half receptions of plus money,
Starting point is 00:34:32 I think those are both quite interesting. I'll mention JSN. JSN was at 40 and a half receiving yards. DK popped up on the injury report. Like he probably plays a guy never misses anything, but like pop up midweek in the injury report with a back injury is not great. So like either way, Jason's been playing more. Great matchup against the Steelers who struggle against slot receivers. They're absolutely decimated defensively. Linebacker, safety, they're putting corners at safety.
Starting point is 00:35:00 It is bad there. So Jason has been really good. Receptions is juice, but i like his receiving yards i like his over uh longest reception as well i think he's cleared the longest reception number when it was out there uh like seven of eight so those are really nice i mentioned shaheed rashid shaheed earlier i think he's a great play i can find ways like i played cooper cup over five and a half receptions on fandle but it was kind of like a one-off. It's juiced up everywhere, but like, I don't know, Cooper Cup stuff, like he had 12 targets last week,
Starting point is 00:35:28 only caught five balls. I agree with Slop. I think he finds a way to, you know, kind of toast his Giants D. Puka as well, five and a half balls, I think is a great number and great luck. Those are all in play. And then the one, I don't know how to play it yet.
Starting point is 00:35:42 We got to go back to the well. I am dying to get my money back from jaron hall jaron hall rushing number we played here i played here when he got that one start over 16 and a half rushing yards 11 on his first drive was gonna cruise and gets concussed on that first drive so it opened up at 26 and a half. That's a little rich. I still think he goes over it. I really, really genuinely do. But like, what do we do? We probably just play all instead of the 26 and a half.
Starting point is 00:36:12 We may be laterate. I don't know. I have interest in Jaron Hall. I don't know how to play it yet. And I haven't been able to find like the best number because some books have limited stuff that's out there. But Jaron Hall owes us money. We're going to get it somehow this week.
Starting point is 00:36:23 I don't know what to do. Connor, any thoughts on those? I'm echoing your bijan love uh any thoughts on jaron hall or anything else that i touched on yeah i almost i almost don't know about bijan because i really like it but like i if they if they specifically game plan to get him the ball at all in the receiving end he's gonna smash the props like 21 and a half yards if they don't then it's probably just like slightly better than 50 50 because that needs to naturally occur but then i just don't trust arthur smith someone was like 30 plus probably plus money or you know maybe 25 plus you need to plus money you can get that out both those are things great looks um because i do think it's
Starting point is 00:36:58 better than 50 50 odds i just don't know i just don't know about arthur smith i hate betting on that guy lost too much money to him um the uh the last one there jared hall i think is interesting is there a longest rush i mean is that maybe the move there is i think it's 12 and a half um jesus if he's getting that i mean it's gonna get the 20 top yeah i thought you'd maybe get like eight or nine you know like something like that um one that I have is crazy. He's a pop-up plus 100, 12 and a half. Sorry.
Starting point is 00:37:28 I draft Kings. Okay. Yeah. Maybe you see how that settles and get 11 and a half and that maybe might be worth it. Jarrett Stidham's rushing prop open. Did you see this number? 34 and a half rushing here. Someone played it and I was like like is that a typo like like you know like
Starting point is 00:37:48 i mean he's not like i mean he run he like can move but like he's not like yeah i was like like what so uh yeah some people got some great numbers on that i think it's still around in depending on your shop uh if you get that honestly even the high 20s i think it's still around depending on your shop. If you can get that, honestly, even in the high 20s, I think it's probably still a good look. I don't know. I thought that was a wild one. Yeah, that's really – what am I missing here? Is this a vanilla?
Starting point is 00:38:20 Yeah, we just don't have a big sample. So he actually – he had uh and 50 uh in his two starts last year when he came in uh for for car and the raiders so uh we're definitely basing it off of that um previous games yeah seven seven attempts in both games. I mean, I don't know. I really think that that was probably a function of whatever was going on in Las Vegas. But maybe, I don't know, maybe he's a scrambler. You're muted, Brian.
Starting point is 00:38:59 Uh-oh. I think Nunez's mic might be kaput again. Look at that. Your mic's gone. We can't hear you. You got to sign it. Sign it. Look at that.
Starting point is 00:39:13 I'm out here in the Mexican streets, and I got better connection. But the lighting is trash. Someone pointed it out. There goes that synergy. Yeah, right. We had it out. There goes that synergy. Yeah, right. We had it going. Hats off to us. I thought of Ryan when I saw that Jaron Hall was starting.
Starting point is 00:39:32 I was like, all right, it's a rush yard right away. They're probably going to give us kind of what we want since, you know, he left so early last time. But it was kind of obvious that they did want to run it with him. So that's huge. And then the Bijon thing, if did want to run it with them so that's that's huge and then the bijon thing if you want to get your running back the ball and have him be effective against the bears you have to throw it to him like i don't think you can run on them like they they legitimately have a good run defense like they're a problem so but then like you said connor
Starting point is 00:40:00 if you know we're we're betting on Arthur Smith to figure that out. And it's like, I don't know, man. I mean, to be honest with you, man, like I don't even know if I would hire him to like mow my yard. Like seriously, like I don't know that he would be able to like figure out like the best way to do it. So, yeah, that's a tough one. I can confidently say that trust fund baby Arthur Smith
Starting point is 00:40:21 has never mowed the lawn in his entire life. Yeah, that's true. There's no shot. Yeah, so then I would notith has never mowed the lawn in his entire life yeah that's true there's no shot yeah so then i would not hire him to mow the yard if he came by on his bike and said hey slob can i mow this for you for 60 bucks like the kids do i'd be like no man no no no you give me 60 bucks i'll let you mow my yard. Oh, my God. Just let him shovel your driveway. No. No, he'd fuck that up, man.
Starting point is 00:40:51 I'm serious. He would. It would not be good on him. He would have a snow plow or a snow blower and use a kid's shovel, like the shovel to drive. Yeah. That's what he would do. Yeah, I'm going to shovel.
Starting point is 00:41:02 He's like, buddy, you don't know how to use the snow blower, do you? That's what it is. He didn't choose to do the shovel. You're like, buddy, you don't know how to use the snowblower, do you? That's what it is. You didn't choose to do the shovel. No one chooses that. All right, let me give us some defensive stuff here real quick, and then we'll get to the chat. Again, fire off anything you have in the chat here. Let's see what we're looking at.
Starting point is 00:41:20 Saks is not great this week. So, like, great spot for the Ramsams typically because it's the giants but the giants has been like it's been like daniel jones and and uh tommy cutlets is that like tie rod still so i don't know how much that translates niners niners may be back on the board now if it's going to be sam howell um the niners are priced out a little bit so i have to look more into that as that adjusts texans i want you know a good spot for the texans uh against whoever's going to be quarterback here for uh you know for the titans i want you know a good spot for the texans uh against whoever's going to be quarterback here for uh you know for the titans but again we have a lot of injuries so like is jonathan grunard playing is will anderson playing still waiting on those injury reports good
Starting point is 00:41:54 spot for the jacks so my favorite sack play is probably uh josh allen uh here against uh against the panthers allen i think is over 0.75 s, so you just need to get a full sack on DraftKings of these minus 120. It's probably my favorite sack play on the board. As far as tackles go, we mentioned a few things here, so a few spots that I'm looking at. We have some lines posted for Rams-Giants, but we are still waiting on the injury report at the cornerback position. So I think we have some corners that I want to play.
Starting point is 00:42:25 Once we get the status of deontay banks we'll probably get both banks and adori jackson posted and i want to see what their solo tackle numbers are um what the price and the tackles number are there so cornerbacks specifically against the rams so quarterbacks in general the league average is about 13 tackles per game the rams 17 and a half by far the most in the league. It's actually the only team in the league where cornerbacks are the leading tacklers against them on average per game. So in cornerbacks typically don't get a lot of assists because of where they get the tackles. So I would look for solos. We don't have to pay basically for a system we're not even going to get. So we can see what the solo numbers are for Jackson and Banks.
Starting point is 00:43:06 Also think it's a great spot for the Raiders. On the road in Indy, Indy runs a lot of plays. I think fourth most tackle opportunities per game. Good scorekeeper situation. Probably positive game script here with Indy running a lot with a lead. You know, the Raiders are interesting and alive for the playoffs, but the offense is pretty inept. It hasn't been very good.
Starting point is 00:43:26 It's shocking that they won that game last week. Did not complete a pass for three quarters. So on the Raiders' side, Robert Spillane, Divine Diablo, Max Crosby, their tackle numbers are going to be something I'm looking for when they come out. So those are my defensive looks so far. We'll have some more waiting for quite a bit on the tackle side. They're pretty slow to release so far this week.
Starting point is 00:43:44 So we'll jump into that. So, Connor, do you want to lead us through uh some of these questions here in the chat let's do it uh quick one here from jeff i could send over a couple girls from banana to mo slops long but i don't cost 60 bucks so slop if you want the pony up you know could be worth it we can negotiate yeah i'm not sure the wife and kids would be too pleased about that. But hey, I think we could. Yeah, probably get to do it on like a day where they're not here. Probably me too. But still, whatever.
Starting point is 00:44:14 Give the neighbors a show, I guess. So good. Timothy Holder, let's do it, Jeff. Slop, we're going to do 10K this weekend. Are you going to – so what's the schedule looking like? Are we going – are you doing the latter with the football games or will you i don't all right so here's how i think it's gonna work uh obviously we win saturday night so now we're two bets away so now i find a book that'll take 2500 bucks but not easy i didn't know that's my question how are
Starting point is 00:44:42 you gonna bet five i don't that's the thing i don't know so caesars is where i had to go for the ferguson move and they took it vandal would only take like 500 and then um draft kings is gone they took 700 the other day i have no idea how that happened that was they're they're now off the board as well. Bet MGM is not an option and neither is ESPN bet. So hopefully Caesars or else like one of my kids is going to get into gambling or something. I don't know. We'll figure that out, but it'll probably be Sunday.
Starting point is 00:45:16 Cause there's enough NFL. I want to stick with the NFL. I've been doing well with the receiving props. The whole thing has been NFL. So I feel like just keep it. Dude, all you do is hit seven in a row. It sounds like it's not that hard. If you're being selective, I mean, I like to fire away,
Starting point is 00:45:33 so I see how it can be hard that it would be seven in a row. You know what I mean? But when you are pretty selective and the ones that you're like, dude, there's no way that loses. It's not that hard, I don't think. I think we can do it. So just stick with just stick with um a bet on sunday and then there's probably no chance that i'll be able to get five grand down
Starting point is 00:45:51 anyways for the monday night uh college football games but i would probably do it then love it yeah i think the way you got to do it is so close to lock like an hour for a lot or maybe maybe like you know 12 hours fanduel changes of their props to minus 110, and it starts taking good action, like 2,500, 1,000-plus props. Really? It's only right before the game. So that is good. Caesars usually takes 1,000-plus.
Starting point is 00:46:18 So you're probably just going to have to mix and match. That's what I would do at least. Yeah, because that's what I was getting scared to do. I was like, all right, I kind of could do is 43 and a half. I was like, I'll take that. I tried to bet my house responsibly and they would only take 500 bucks.
Starting point is 00:46:36 Yeah, obviously, clearly. Then I was like, oh shit, well, I'm just going to wait because I already had a great idea for the TikTok video, which came out awesome, by the way. That's off to me. But, um, but anyway, so like I was ready to do that and I was getting mad. So I was like, damn, I'm ready to do this now, but I can't. And then seizures and everybody came out with 40, I guess, five and a half, which was, you know, obviously it's two yards higher, but I was like, you know what, I'll, I'll take that. Like,
Starting point is 00:47:00 I think he's going 50 plus. So then I I tried Caesars, and they just took it. So I never thought about it again until just the other day. Later on, I was like, you know what? How the hell am I getting $2,500 down? It's not even a lot of money when you think about it. There's guys that are betting real money here, and I don't know how they do it. But $2,500 doesn't feel like that much.
Starting point is 00:47:23 You can find one book, right? It's just all about accounts. That's the name of the game for these guys like you have to have like so many different accounts or like good ones like fan duel and things like that that's how they do it that's it's like they just use like 50 different accounts basically yeah it feels like a lot of work man feels like i need like multiple computer screens i'm not i'm not a two two three computer screen guy you know anymore just like give me a phone and an account just let me go you know just let me cook i mean these guys have teams like they have teams yeah yeah just about i've read into like how like that guy spanky does it they're basically rumors like i didn't really read him
Starting point is 00:48:03 into how he actually does it. It's basically just rumors. But it's fascinating. You're like, holy shit, this is a whole thing. Yeah. And here I am just firing away, hammered from about the jump of the shower. Between rolls of the bowling alley, you know? Yeah, exactly.
Starting point is 00:48:22 You know what? I think that guy was 50 plus. Let's go. All right, so you know? Yeah, exactly. You know what? I think that guy was 50-plus. Let's go. All right, so I'll try that, though. So right before the game, maybe that'll happen. But then, like, the TikTok video takes a hit. Yes, yes. Yeah, but it's the balance of content.
Starting point is 00:48:37 Yeah. Video is so good, it won't even matter. Newton, I'm curious to hear your thoughts here. Jameer Gibbs, longest rush. DK took it down on a trophy back. Thoughts? Do you like it? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:48:52 I think it's been one of those ones that's like, you know, we did it with, you know, Kenneth Walker for a while. It's just auto. Nick Chubb is just an auto play. They just don't adjust it enough. Rest in peace. Yeah. This guy's just going over, you know, 20, 25 on one pop a game, and they just don't adjust it enough and rest in peace yeah these guys is going over you know 20 25 on one pop a game and they just never put it over 16 and a half 17 and a
Starting point is 00:49:11 half so yeah gibbs makes a ton of sense 100 um all right i'm thinking about picking washington and arizona in a parlay against i'd assume against the spread um not for me with Sam Howell, but I don't know. Any interest, guys? Washington, like the commanders? Also the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals, yeah. Yeah, I'm way out on that. I didn't even know why you would do that.
Starting point is 00:49:44 Just find a charity joe you know what i mean just like throw that cash there all right flop all the way out on uh joe i'm not i'll be honest with you i like the wild stuff but i mean i'll tell you right now the 49ers are to curb stomp them. Yeah. That's not going to be fun to have a Washington Moneyline ticket. That's just like, I don't know. I'd rather like, I don't know. I'd rather go to church than like do that.
Starting point is 00:50:16 You know what I mean? Then watch that, that ticket. All right. Not on back tonight. I love it. Shout out to church. Well, again, he's been in the Bible. He's been in the Bible.
Starting point is 00:50:28 Sunday morning church is tough, guys. I'm just saying. It's right after Saturday night. You know what I'm saying. Yeah. That's why you just do your Bible reading at home. You know what I mean? Yep.
Starting point is 00:50:37 Yep. I read the whole thing. Nothing about mims in the whole thing. No mims. Yeah, but now we have Jared Stidham. I mean, the Bible clearly was not strong enough to keep ross around you know so now it's all that whole narrative now i think it kind of took a hit with that benching huh i mean like oh god's got you huh it's like yikes bible's down bad yeah
Starting point is 00:50:57 riddle yeah uh man let's see here justin watson over 20 i'm looking at it i i mean it's juice to right now across the board um i don't see a reason not to play it again i mean that was like literally the worst playing i think of the the chief's office period watching still at like 35 plus you know i think it's pretty solid any any justin w I feel like I'm becoming a Justin Watson guy. You are. Yeah. I hated him too because I said his name earlier in the season and you were just like, fuck that guy. And then now, like, I'm with you, man.
Starting point is 00:51:35 I don't know what to do with him, but he somehow catches a bomb like every game it feels like. Yeah, ladders are longest would be the way to go for me if you're going to it and i don't hate it fewer guys there there's no one else Mahomes obviously likes him right i mean like so there's that found him on two broken plays last week so it's like broken plays and like you know he was like his go-to guy uh you the route was done. So I don't know. Kind of interesting.
Starting point is 00:52:05 Also, I don't know if you guys saw this, but at some point in that game, Rice, the Rice kid, just didn't put his hands up for a ball or something. The camera pans to Mahomes, and he's just telling him, like, just put your hands up. I was like, God damn. Like, that's bad. Because, like, he was right. When you watch the replay again, you're like, oh, yeah.
Starting point is 00:52:24 Like, the throw wasn't really there. like just just try yeah just like pick your hands up and like try to catch it even though it's not like right in your numbers i was just like dude did he just do that but so maybe a little frustration i don't know like he doesn't do that to justin um noonan so puka nakua did not practice today both are expected to play but if you're considering making a move on cooper cup you know this would seems like a pretty solid time so yeah like i said i played the over five and a half at minus 122 on fanduel but it was like i didn't push it out to subscribers it was minus 148 or something on draft kings and that's like minus 150 and stuff elsewhere so i played it because i thought it was a good number and it was going 148 or something on draft kings and that's like minus 150 and stuff elsewhere
Starting point is 00:53:05 so i played it because i thought it was a good number and it was going to go away but you could take alts on cooper cup again 12 targets last week like this is one of those games where his box score just didn't look as good as puka's but he was still heavily heavily involved so yeah everyone took the cup alls too and no one took the puka alls last week. So it's tough. Let's see here. Olave points bet at 81. I hate taking high points bet overs, but you know what? Let Jimmy cook.
Starting point is 00:53:32 Why not? You know, points betting might be a good option for Jared Hall. Definitely a good option for Jared Hall. He could run for 80. Yeah. You want to explain points bet for people, um, like points betting for people if they're new to the show. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:53:50 Real, real quick. So if he ends up with a hundred yards, you win 19 times, whatever your wager is. So if you put down 10 bucks, you'd win 190 bucks. So 19 times your wager.
Starting point is 00:54:00 But if you end up with 60 yards, you lose 21 times your wager. So you would lose 210 bucks. So, I mean, I've said it. It's literally options for sports betting. I mean, I have won a shitload of money. I have lost my fucking ass on this shit. I mean, I'm talking like thousands in one single swoop because I got absolutely railed.
Starting point is 00:54:23 So it wasn't great, i just bet responsibly and don't be a degenerate like me sometimes so i think it'd be okay yeah i've always thought like low you know receiving over like a justin watson um quarterback rushing like things we're talking about that are like where we would take ladders but you'd want it to be low like you want it to be in like the 20s where you just your risk is mitigated a little bit because the number is not so not so high you start chasing these like alpha receiver overs and points betting is just a death sentence um yeah yeah yeah i'm probably good for your account account management but not not good for your bankroll there's no way i could do that i know i be homeless in a weekend.
Starting point is 00:55:06 You got to put it out too. They hold a chunk of it. You have to have it in your account. No IOUs? No, it's not a credit book. It's just as good as cash. Yeah, you don't want to keep that one. $250K for a Lamborghini. Might want to hang on to that one. That's so good. Let's hear it. The question of the day, what kind of defense will Sloppy call in from fourth grade? Box in one zone, man. Like, what kind of defense do they run?
Starting point is 00:55:35 All right. So, at the fourth grade level, you have to play man-to-man just because there's literally only a certain area where these kids can score the ball from. So if you wanted to, you could just line all the kids up. But you know what I mean? Like the three-point line does not matter in fourth grade basketball. So you got to play man-to-man, which is a good rule. The other coaches, they go to zone.
Starting point is 00:55:57 Like they say they're lagging off. You know what I mean? Like, oh, she's covered. It's like, dude, no, she's not. You know what I mean? Like you're putting kids in the middle. We have a plan for that. It's fine. We don't, dude, no, she's not. You know what I mean? Like, you're putting kids in the middle. We have a plan for that. It's fine.
Starting point is 00:56:06 We don't do that, though, because we're not cheats here in Tewksbury. We play by the rules. And, yeah, we play man-to-man. We see what we can do. We won it so far in the tournament, and today's the last game. This team has fifth graders on it, so, yeah, not great. Again, something we would never do here in Tewksbury, just saying. We'd never do something like that.
Starting point is 00:56:29 But, yeah, I don't know what's going to happen. I'm just going to go in. We're going to play hard, crash the boards, get some rebounds, play some defense. Let's go. But man-to-man, Jeff. Man-to-man. Interesting.
Starting point is 00:56:42 I would say fuck them kids and play zone the entire game but I you know the rest don't call it some rest call it some rest don't so it's it's it's a tough look you know what I mean I love how the reps call it yeah that's an interesting rule yeah well think about like this though guys all right so the first thing I thought was like why the hell would we ever do this like that's dumb you know because you like when picks happen, kids don't switch kids wide open, you know, but but if like you're not done, take Coach K to figure out that they can only score literally from like two, three feet away from the basket. So like, why would you just put three kids in the middle? Right. Right. Just put them right in front of the basket and then two kids in front of them. And then every time someone comes near the basket, the two kids go up with their – you know what I'm saying? With their hands up and the other three –
Starting point is 00:57:26 like it would be the dumbest looking game you've ever seen in your life. So like if you were actually smart, that's what you'd do. So yeah. So I bet you some guy did that and that's how we got here. You know what I mean? Yeah, a 2-3 zone in the paint. Literally just like put them all in the paint. I die laughing whenever I see the teams out past the three-point line
Starting point is 00:57:45 trying to defend. You're like, what are you doing? Like, you know she's going that way. You know where she's going. And it's always like a kid that's slower than like the kid with the ball who's like generally pretty quick. So they run right by that kid. It's like, dude, now it's a fast break.
Starting point is 00:57:59 You know what I mean? Like, what are you doing? Just put them all inside the three-point line and let's see what's what. Coaching everyone to go under the screen. These kids are all going under. No one's chasing over the screen. We're helping. We got called, actually, for double teaming.
Starting point is 00:58:12 Not a double team the other night. It was great help defense. Great help defense. Got the steal. They stopped it. And it was like, guys, you'll catch up one day. That was great help defense. Coached a lot of fourth-grade basketball in my time we always ran zone but we never had a rule where we couldn't so okay yeah see what i'm saying zone is the obvious choice for a defense for sure
Starting point is 00:58:34 like why would you ever play man but i do get it i was like you know what i kind of i kind of get this because we're going to go to zone the second we get the sixth grade definitely there's no chance for a man with the crew we got but we're going to go to zone the second we get the sixth grade. Definitely. There's no chance we're playing man with the crew we got. But we're going to learn how the next couple of years, see what's happening. Just run a 1-3-1 trap back into a 2-3. Love the 1-3-1 trap. Wow.
Starting point is 00:58:54 We should start our own basketball coaching podcast. We should. We should. Let's talk X's and O's, baby, for kids. I could do it all day. All day. Big moving pig guy. I'd say just act like you fell.
Starting point is 00:59:11 Just fall down. Just go there. Just walk up and just fall down. That way they have to run around you. That's so good. All right. I think the people have two more quick questions. Actually, Jeff Semberg, another one.
Starting point is 00:59:24 Kicker prop of the week. Justin Tucker over seven at at picking points i don't know if jeff has lost i think he wins every single kicking prop so yeah i need to be i i bet the one last time um greg greg zerling i don't know what he whatever he said last he tweeted at me last night and uh i bet it and you know shot him one so that was awesome. Jeff, good expression, kicker props, love that. And then last question here, I've been backing McCaffrey anytime touchdown
Starting point is 00:59:50 in the first half. Is Slitzer touching the first half for the second or Max is slanted? If you are the anytime touchdown guy, I think this makes sense,
Starting point is 00:59:57 especially in a game where they're 14 point favorites. I've seen people talking about this because I think the anytime touchdown numbers are just getting to the point where they're unbettettable you know it's like minus 350
Starting point is 01:00:07 or whatever so yeah like what world is this but we're all monkeys and just bet it anyways it's like all we got to do is give a little pushback just say nope not betting it you got to get a better price but we'll never do that because we're just a bunch of guys that will bet whatever anything yeah yeah it's a tightness you see it in home runs in baseball all the time now that because we're just a bunch of guys that will bet whatever. Anything. You see it in home runs in baseball all the time now. It's getting to the point where it's like a guy's plus 185. Really? He's going to get up
Starting point is 01:00:36 600 times this year and hit 40 of them. We're betting plus 185. What are we doing? Crazy. The math isn't math in there. I'm not even a math guy. Love it. Well, I think that's about it for the questions. A little bit light today with our early start time here,
Starting point is 01:00:55 but we had an hour anyway, so love it. Good to have. I think we killed it. I think we killed it. Slav can get to his incredible man-to-man coaching. Really look forward to it. There's a game streamed on YouTube. Can we watch it?
Starting point is 01:01:08 I wish it was. It's not going to be. Like I said, I think it's going to be a tough game today because this team does have fifth graders on it. I know for a fact. I already checked. So it's not going to be easy. Probably not one that the crowd is going to love.
Starting point is 01:01:22 But we're going to play anyways. You're going to do what I always did in high school you know a little antagonistic by nature i always like to just kind of find the guy that you want to get out of the game um i'm a big pincher you know just give him a little pinch no you put your hand put your hand on this hip yeah just put your hand on the hip they get real annoyed eventually they're going to swing or swat at your hands you just do it at the right time when you're right by the ref just like put your hand out like you're just kind of trying to try to check him make sure you know where he's at just give him a little pinch one of those ones a little annoying you get a free fall out of it so you know i'm a big get
Starting point is 01:01:57 them fouled out of the game huge like the first i see a kid that's pretty good just like all right kid like i know you're nice but like you're we're gonna get you found out like we can't have you out here because you're too good so you just you run you spread everyone out five out and just have them go directly at them they're gonna value because they're a little kid they don't know they're not great yet you know what i mean so that generally works but in the tournaments it does not because it's it's all about keeping it on schedule so there's no fouls you know what i mean like yeah just keep it going so you gotta have some blood guy told me yesterday that four or five girls get hit on every play in the face and that uh they don't complain about it and i'm just like i wasn't even talking to you one and two that's not true that's not true like there's
Starting point is 01:02:43 not there's one kid's getting hit in the face they start crying so you know who got hit in the face but yeah it is what it is fun stuff fun stuff volunteer in your local community guys if you're watching this go down to the rec center tell them you want to coach some ball telling you new year's resolution you should do that it is fantastic love it absolutely love it so all right again good stuff as always we appreciate it to come back uh hit that subscribe that like button again podcast YouTube channel wherever you're watching uh we appreciate it again I want to shout out Sal uh Sal we will miss you buddy so for Connor and Slop and producer Sal I'm Ryan we'll see you all next time thanks everybody

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