Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 17 Player Prop Bets! | Top Picks, Predictions & Odds

Episode Date: December 27, 2024

Get ready for Week 17 with our top prop bet picks! Join us as we break down the best NFL prop bets for opening week, analyzing player performances, key matchups, and hidden opportunities to maximize y...our winnings. Whether you're betting on touchdowns, yardage, or game-changing plays, we've got the insights you need to make the smartest bets. Subscribe now and start the season with a winning edge! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan  Follow John on Twitter 👉🏼    / sloprules   Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 yeah hello and welcome to move the line prop drop show presented by draft king sportsbook i'm ryan noonan joined today by my friend john hysop. We are back to talk about the best way, the most profitable way to bet on NFL football, and that is through player props. We are missing Connor Allen today. Connor living his best life. He joked last week about canceling his vacation, getting in the weeds, being that dude. But no, he's in Mexico. Drinking cervezas, mezcal, mezcal who know tacos all the things but slop and i
Starting point is 00:00:50 hashtag no days off bud what's going on yeah no days off i'm not in mexico i am at my house where it's very cold unlike mexico i'm sure it's not 40 degrees outside right now in Mexico. But whatever happens, congrats to him. I'm glad Connor's in Mexico. But like I said, you and I, the adults in the room, got to stay home and make some bets for the people. I feel like we're kings for that. I mean, it's pretty irresponsible to take a vacation in the middle of football season.
Starting point is 00:01:23 It's selfish. But, you know, that's Connor as core. People probably know that by watching him over the last handful of years. Big, big me guy. I mean, you know, good for him. Under guy. Under guy energy right there.
Starting point is 00:01:36 So this is definitely overseason right here. We're not going to mess around with any gross unders. Nope. That is not what we're here for. Slop and I are here to get down on plays that people want. People want winners. I understand that. Conor's had a nice year with his unders.
Starting point is 00:01:54 It's just such a miserable watch too, Slop. It's probably your part of it for you too. Sometimes I want to win and I want to enjoy what I I'm watching and there's nothing worse unless you're like, you're going to be away from the TV all day. The hunters, especially these slimy grimy ones that Connor will play like under in the teens or something like that, like completely insufferable bets.
Starting point is 00:02:16 I can't, I can't do it. No, I hate it. I think it's disgusting. I think it's stupid. I don't know. I mean,
Starting point is 00:02:22 I've reached a point where i think that we can do things for entertainment reasons but also money reasons right like like you could do both like you don't like just because you like money doesn't mean you have to bet unders like you could just bet all overs and i mean that's the only way to watch a game in my opinion i'm not watching unders i hate that i know i know that unders are they're generally you know can be sharp and it's good to win but it's not like you're just betting the entirety of the board you can still guys are going to go over we're just picking our spots you know i'm saying find them yeah he's gonna go find them so you're picking our spots we're gonna pick those spots today uh yeah i can't wait. How was holiday season in Slop House?
Starting point is 00:03:05 Was all good? Very busy. All the gifts came, which is good. Santa brought everything. So that was huge. I'm not done putting stuff together yet, but I'm almost there. I got a jump box for myself yesterday. I didn't even know I needed one until I got one yesterday.
Starting point is 00:03:22 So if anyone needs a jump that I'm around, I can just give them the jump. You know what I mean? So it's huge. It's huge. I feel like my whole life's changed. Okay. Nice. I got a son who's basketball, track, cross country.
Starting point is 00:03:37 So a jump box in my mind, I instantly went to that actual box that you used to jump on. Different jump box. But yeah, that one's just as cool but this one like i thought you're working on your vert yeah your car battery's dying it's dead you're in your car you don't know what to do you're not asking people for a jump anymore you know what i mean you're just putting the box on it done you're out of there self-sufficient yep i like it yes i'm back i thought you were working on your vert which would have been awesome no i i've given up man like i really i really wanted to dunk and i never could i could always
Starting point is 00:04:12 grab rim maybe i can't now i mean i can i can touch the rim now but i've always been able to grab rim i got a uh tennis ball over it one time when i was in 12th grade so that was big that was a big moment and then um i after, I just kind of gave up. Man, I got really skinny legs. I mean, they're not going to make me fly. So who knows? I mean, maybe one day. I'm going to be 50 in like three years from now.
Starting point is 00:04:35 That's why I'm seeing things now. And, man, I don't know if the dunk's ever going to happen, but who knows? Maybe I'll get a jump box. Probably on the other side of Duncan. Yeah. I'm on the other side of dunks too. Unfortunately. Did you ever be, or have you ever been able to dunk? So play a lot of basketball, big, big basketball guy. I'm actually originally moved out here to Chicago area for,
Starting point is 00:05:03 for the sport love it for for school um and out myself like you know six two not not super tall slightly short arms and not like massive hand okay plumbing is hard so there was a time where uh i could dunk off of the toss. So like self-oops, you know, it's such the timing of having to throw yourself a perfect oop off the bounce. So it could never dunk in a game or anything even kind of close. But you get that oop right to the front of the rim.
Starting point is 00:05:39 And just get it over it. Yeah, if you were hanging on the rim, if you could have got a good soft toss right there, you're just right there to like bring it in and grab the rim yeah yeah so it really looks like just what um sometimes the rims in my daughter's basketball league are down to nine feet for the younger kids so what we can do is i can throw it off the backboard and one-handed in but i never actually like i dunked it i mean it's not beat but i could see maybe maybe that be in the way if i ever do it on a 10 foot rim maybe that's it yeah i mean yeah i'm still
Starting point is 00:06:12 doing on your 50s or you know upper 40s slop i mean it's good stuff dude i got a couple years left before i'm like officially gonna give up on it i think i'm gonna grab a jump box one man why not see next next christmas i'm getting you a jump box. Yeah, we'll get there. Couldn't agree with you more, Jason. At this point in our lives, probably better off with the header box. That's 1,000% true.
Starting point is 00:06:35 Hard to argue with that. Are you a big New Year's resolution guy, Slop? Yeah. Okay. What do we got? Anything on the table for 2025? I'm going to try to win every bet I make in 2025. I like this.
Starting point is 00:06:48 Okay. Yep. And also – Why don't we just win more bets? Win more bets I think is a good start, but I like – Yeah, that's a good strategy. Yeah. I'm just going to try to just gamble more but also win every bet I make. So that's generally – it's the same New Year's resolution every year for me.
Starting point is 00:07:03 Okay. Yep. And nothing's really changed. Just gamble more. Gamble more. Get back up on the rim. Yep. Yep.
Starting point is 00:07:11 Maybe grab the rim. Maybe grab two-hand grab the rim this year and then that way. Because I kind of have long arms. Okay. You know what I mean? I don't know. So I got a chance, I think. I got a chance.
Starting point is 00:07:25 All right, buddy. Let's get into it. Remind folks we're going to continue on. Fantasy seasons are ending. It doesn't matter. In our world, we keep going. 3 p.m. Eastern, every Friday, 4 for 4 bets on the YouTube channel. Move the line wherever you listen to podcasts.
Starting point is 00:07:38 If you're hanging out with us now, week 17, jump in the chat. We need your help this week. We don't have Connor. So if you have any thoughts, any additions you want us to consider for our Millie Parlay, on our thoughts on any of your favorite looks here for week 17, jump in the chat, let us know. Joining live is the best bet for you to get these numbers, these prices. Obviously these lines can move pretty quickly with the audience here.
Starting point is 00:08:00 We appreciate that. Again, a reminder, a few thousand people watching or listening to the show, less than half of you subscribe to the channel of the podcast. we appreciate that uh again reminder a few thousand people watching or listening to the show less than half of you subscribe to the channel of the podcast to change that we would appreciate that very much uh goes a long way in helping us uh support and do all the free cool stuff that we can do um too long to move line episodes each week we did not do because you know holidays was tough this week but we'll continue on with our size totals futures stuff that we'll have here on Wednesdays. And again, this one prop drop will stay in the Friday spot. Obviously I'll see them. It's your last chance to take advantage of the rebet deal. We'll be talking about it for
Starting point is 00:08:34 a last handful of weeks. That deal goes away on new year's day. So it's the last shot. If you need another out, you need another sports book. Rebet is a sweepstakes app. It has a prop builder feature in it. I don't know what the rules are with these sweepstakes apps, but even if you're in Florida, you're in Texas, you're in California, you're in one of these states for some reason that hasn't turned the lights on for sports betting and you're stuck with pick'em games, that is not true. These sweepstakes apps like ProfitX we've talked about,
Starting point is 00:09:04 if you're betting sides and totals we've talked about if you're betting sides of totals rebet if you're trying to get on props they're available in 46 states including those states so check it out download rebet use promo code high slop you're going to get a free month of our betting sub and again we're still betting all the way through the super bowl uh and you're going to get a free month of Slop's Dub Club as well. So take advantage of that for just $10 using promo code ISLOP. Any questions, reach out to us directly. All right, Slop, you get to kick us off first this week.
Starting point is 00:09:33 Connor's not here. Week 17, Slop, first play. What do you got? All right, sounds kind of crazy, but Antonio Gibson, 40-plus rushing yards, plus 215 at Valley Bet. It was better earlier today, but plus 215 is still good. I mean, plus 215 is kind of crazy. It's plus 200 at ESPN Bet.
Starting point is 00:09:53 But I don't know. I think Ramon J fumbling. Heard him last week. I think Gibson's going to get the rock a little bit more. He ran the ball 10 times, so a lot of the haters are going to be like, hey, he got 10 carries last week and didn't even get 30 yards. I think he got 28.
Starting point is 00:10:09 That was just the Buffalo Bills. All right, if you haven't been watching football this season, the Buffalo Bills, their run defense is number one in the NFL right now in opponents' yards per attempt. So that could be why. Fast forward to this week, we're getting the Chargers.
Starting point is 00:10:24 They're going to be flying across the country they're probably going to be tired they're also going to be bringing the fifth worst run defense in the nfl in terms of opponent yards per carry so there is that but dude if we got 10 carries out of this dude 10 carries he's going to go over 40 yards i'm telling you right now it's going to happen he he's the only go over 40 yards. I'm telling you right now, it's going to happen. He's the only guy that breaks stuff for them. If you go back and look, I think I saw a tweet today, kind of a crazy tweet, but he has the most explosive plays on that team
Starting point is 00:10:55 or the same amount as Hunter Henry and Ramondre. Ramondre and Hunter Henry have like 200-plus attempts, like whether it be rushing or receiving. This guy's only touched about 77 times he's the most explosive player all he needs to do is get him 10 carries and we're home i think he gets it this week and if that happens it's plus 215 ryan plus 215 is kind of good it's a good price um you know connor's in mexico they do have the internet we do have text messaging you'd be shocked to learn that that Connor was trying to find unders with the
Starting point is 00:11:28 same angle. So you're trying to think of, you know, unders on Ramond Dre or, you know, just, just absolutely gross. You know, we've got to fix that guy's brain, but yeah, I like the thought. I mean, there could be some sort of dog house situation. Like you said, with the Romandre fumble. It kind of opens some stuff up for Gibson.
Starting point is 00:11:47 The team needs explosive. I mean, when you use a defensive back, and he's one of your best offensive explosive weapons, it's a tough, tough scene for my boy Dre May. Yeah. No, that's bad. I mean, we'll see what happens. I do think the doghouse theory has kind of jumped the shark a little bit
Starting point is 00:12:09 in the fantasy community. It's like, guys, I don't know. This means we're starting this guy. You know what I'm saying? Even though most leagues are over, but you know what I'm saying. I don't think it really means that much to the fantasy guys. But when you're looking at 27 and a half yards is a standard line on bally bet it's kind of like all right like he's gone over this number in three of his last four games i mean it's not
Starting point is 00:12:30 or i'm sorry he's on 30 plus in three of his last four games so the idea that he can't get 40 yards in a situation where he might see a few more carries again like romandre hasn't lost a fumble in like nine weeks so don't forget about that either like i mean i guess we're talking about fumbling problems or whatever. Last time he lost one was like a while ago. So it doesn't automatically mean this guy is going to see the bench. But I'm just saying, why not give Antonio a few more carries? It doesn't make any sense not to.
Starting point is 00:12:56 Like I said, 10 is the number. If he gets to 10, we're home, definitely. Did you look at rushing and receiving at all? Not really. I do like it. I'm kind of scared of that market. It's tough. I know.
Starting point is 00:13:10 Because you could have one leg, one side of it let you down completely. Yes. And the rushing side is always the one. You know what I mean? Where you're just like, man, he gets nothing. I mean, obviously, you could take one. But rushing and receiving is good if you're talking about receivers, not with running backs because what happens when he catches three balls and it only gets him five yards or three balls for 15 but one of them he lost five yards on like that for sure
Starting point is 00:13:34 those are just tough markets like i said it's fun it is what it is but um his standard line right now looks like it's 42 and a half minus 117 i just think it's like pra's in nba if you get home it's gonna be because he got home on points in the nba well this rushing yards will be points in this situation if you get home on that it's gonna be i think because he ran or he caught a screen pass and took it for a long way but man that's that's very tough to predict receiving running back receiving stuff is so volatile anyway like yeah i know you hate them don't you i it's not i actually really like them i like them but the problem is i'm in the same spot like so many times it makes a lot of sense and i think my lifetime record is i'm definitely just a
Starting point is 00:14:18 lifetime loser on those bets and it's like yeah well why do i want to keep running head first into that market where yeah i always feel like it's a good edge, why do I want to keep running headfirst into that market? Yeah. I always feel like it's a good edge. It's a good angle. It's a good trend. Game script dependent. You know what I'm saying? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:14:32 I got one. And whoever in the chat is saying that, dude, I don't think that Antonio Gibson has taken over this role. That's not what I'm saying. But throw me a couple extra carries. Maybe that's a thing. Ramondre fumbles? Forget about it. I'm just saying, like, you have upside with this. And like I said, this number is so low to begin with that, man,
Starting point is 00:14:55 a couple extra carries is going to go a long way against this defense. It's the perfect opportunity because, again, you're talking about last week where he played the Bills. Like, that's tough to run against them you know it just is so like i said 40 plus plus 215 it's a price thing yeah hey you can get there on an explosive too right you're cooking so yeah yeah absolutely love it all right um i got a few ways to go with this i I'm going to start with my guy, Bucky Irving. We're going to go over longest rush, 15.5 on FanDuel. It's probably cooking a little bit.
Starting point is 00:15:33 16.5 is more widely available. If you have BetRivers, you can get down on Rivers. They're plus 100 on this. Minus 110 on DraftKings, MGM, ESPN, all the other places that you can do this. If you are looking at, first of all, the depth chart for the Panthers is absolutely brutal. Josie Jules out of the lineup this week. They are literally without their top four. I mean, first of all, no one even carries four linebackers.
Starting point is 00:15:59 But just in terms of where they would have started the season, they are on linebacker five and six. They literally are adding a guy is going to play a hundred percent of the snaps undrafted rookie from Michigan state this year. So played for the first time last week. They, and now he's like the dude, he has to be the guy. And already it's been just the worst matchup in general, or the best matchup,
Starting point is 00:16:23 I guess, if you're looking for anything rushing related. So if you look at running backs with at least 100 carries on the season, Bucky's got the third highest explosive rate in the league. Last week, just dominated carries. Rashad White, three carries. Bucky Irvin, 16. So, you know, anything passing related went to White.
Starting point is 00:16:40 Irvin was the dude. You know, anything early down, anything rushing-wise. So, yeah, I mean, you look at any of the advanced stats Irving top three in the league in this tackle force yards after contact per attempt again Panthers bottom three in these metrics allowed lowest stuff rates which is tackling someone basically at the line of scrimmage or behind and third highest rate allowed of yards before contact per rush so like again this is just one of those scenarios where i want to go after this guy somehow his rushing prop is in like the mid 80s that's rich just give me one banger 15 and a half
Starting point is 00:17:16 16 and a half fine with either of those plays here uh what are your thoughts on bucky i was talking to matt modi this morning in the Thunderdome and he likes Bucky's rushing yards over which I do as well um 100 plus that's really definitely a nice move I think he just torched these guys already this season if I'm not mistaken so there is that but I mean they just gave up seven yards of carry last week. That is – that's insanely bad. Like you don't really get worse than that. But, I mean, yeah, you can get – looks like at Valley,
Starting point is 00:17:57 they've got 210, plus 210 for 100-plus rushing yards. I don't see how he doesn't go over that. Like, man, that sounds crazy. I don't see it. Like I think he has to go over that. And we have like a doghouse situation there too with White losing that fumble. So, I mean, you don't know. But, dude, 20 carries, he's getting 100 yards. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:18:18 Well over 100. For sure. Plus 200 for that is kind of crazy. That's my look. I know that your mark gets the longest. I like that. I like this. That's my look. I know that your mark gets the longest. I like that. That's how you roll, yeah. But I would be definitely looking more towards the over 100.
Starting point is 00:18:32 That would be my style of playing that. Okay. We'll make notes of that. We'll have to get it. Usually, we have Connor building this on the side for us, so we'll have to do that on our own today, but that will definitely be a look for us, I think, for our parlay at the end for sure but yeah i'm with you um you're just no way he's not getting there if he's like in
Starting point is 00:18:49 the 16 to 18 carry range at this point with how efficient he's been and how terrible they are and again they're in half point favorites it's a game that matters to the bucks right so we don't have to worry about any of that nonsense uh there's probably in relation to some of the rest of the slate i don't think there's weather concerns. It's a running back anyway. So, yeah, I'm bucking fine at 16.5, which I know is the more readily available number now that we've already clicked at 15.5.
Starting point is 00:19:13 So, all right, buddy. What else you got? Good look at same game. I don't want to do it, but we did it once already, and it worked out. I think it was against this same team, but why not Bryce Young, 225-plus passing yards? Ballybett still has that up for even money, which I think is wild
Starting point is 00:19:36 just because of the whole game script itself. That's one. You know the Bucs are going to move the ball at will. That's just going to happen and then on top of it um the bucks defense like they have given up the fourth most passing yards to uh opponents this season they're where they're one of four teams have given up 4 000 passing yards this year uh bryce young has approached 300 against them already this season i don't see how 225 that's that's not a big number especially against this team especially since you know the bucks are gonna score on the panthers all he has to do is keep them semi-close within two to
Starting point is 00:20:18 three scores and we should see a full game out of this guy. Why not? Like, why not? Yeah. I mean, why not us? I really, I looked at his reception number too. I mean, his completion number, which I thought was actually interesting too. Yeah. I think this is probably the better way to go about it too. Cause again, this, this also helps just guys break big carry,
Starting point is 00:20:41 like big plays too. Right. Like if you had a nice driver, a nice situation or a nice situation where a guy takes like a reception you know 70 yards to the house well you just kind of stole three four or five completions from you right but you're still in a good spot for your yardage so yeah i i like it i like the spot for him he's playing decent football they're beat up in the secondary uh just put another guy on IR, Christian Eisen,
Starting point is 00:21:05 who's been playing really well for them. So, yeah, I mean, they're – it's a good spot to attack. And with that last game, that was that like, hey, maybe he's not so bad anymore game, right, when they took him to overtime a month ago. And, you know, I think he was like 26 for 34 and threw for a shit ton of yards. I think you had – I think you played him that week too.
Starting point is 00:21:21 Yeah, that was – it's scary playing him. It's scary because, like, you watch and, like, sometimes you're sometimes you're just like wow i mean this guy's just not that good but yeah like that's against decent teams i think he did okay against kansas city but i mean it's tough to it's tough with a guy like bryce young but i think we've seen enough of them and we've seen enough of tampa bay to know that if he's getting 225 it's's going to be a week like this. If you want to go 250, that's plus 188 at Valley Bet, which is still not crazy. It's not a big number. It is a game script that we can confidently predict.
Starting point is 00:21:54 I'm pretty sure Tampa Bay is going to do whatever they want to on offense. All we have to do is have a decent day throwing out of Bryce Young, and he's going to get you 225. He's going to be on the track. It's like a train. There's a track to that. Just get there. That's all you got to do.
Starting point is 00:22:09 Just get there, Bryce. Just get there. I like it. Another leg that I think very much can be in play for our parlay here a little bit today. All right, I'm going to go back to the well with uh a winner last week so uh jeff asked a question in the chat uh are we only betting on games that matter or can we find value in games that have no meaning like the raiders and saints i think it's a good question i think that's probably
Starting point is 00:22:37 more prevalent slop next week i don't know what your thoughts are this week like these teams like especially they have nothing to play for pulling the rug on dudes in week 17 feels a little bit early. You can sell me on the spot maybe in the second half of a blowout for like a playoff team this week. But even that, I'm probably more hesitant than anything. What are your thoughts on some of this, you know, selling early stuff? It depends on the team situation. Like this is the week where you're going to really want to read
Starting point is 00:23:04 into the beat writers what they're saying about certain guys. Like some of them are plugged in. situation like you know like this is the week where you're gonna really want to read um into the beat writers what they're saying against about certain guys like some of them are plugged in some of them aren't you know so there's that you gotta watch out for white noise but there's just some like because football is really a game about what the coaches think about the players more so than any other sport because i mean like you like baseball they have to come up and hit right like that's just you know what i mean like maybe they do pull them out after righties or lefties but you know that going in but football you dictate where the ball goes you know what i mean so if you want to see more of a guy and you're a team that's pretty bad guess what these are the two
Starting point is 00:23:38 weeks where you might get that spike game out of some rando and then on the other side of it it might be the week where you get nothing out of your stud that they're just checked out so again it's every every team is different i mean i know that's a pretty pretty bad answer but that's true back to the matter like every team's different and like i said if you you if you're plugged in if you're tuned into what you know teams like this guy don't like this guy now's the time to really jump on that um that hunch yeah also the sunday morning injury reports getting an understanding of like does the team have an extra running back on the roster that week or stuff like that like some of those things can be little hidden signs for you and uh you know again it's
Starting point is 00:24:21 it's hard to parse through that and the beats Beats maybe have an idea of that, maybe don't too. So that's tricky. But to Jeff's point, specifically in the Raiders-Saints game, there's a ton of value. Again, both teams playing out the slate. No reason for them to bench anyone or anything here. I'm going to play one of last week's winners. We're going to go back to the well on Brock Bowers,
Starting point is 00:24:47 over 66.5 receiving yards. I don't know why it's still right play one of last week's winners. We're going to go back to the well on Brock Bowers over 66 and a half receiving yards. I don't know why it's still right where it was last week. Last week, 64 and a half this week, 66. If you have again, Caesars or rivers, uh, you can get a little bit better at 65 and a half there. We now have three games with Aiden O'Connell playing start to finish in those three games. Brock Bowers is putting up video game numbers. 30 receptions, 37 targets, 310 yards. So he's basically averaging 13 targets, 10 catches,
Starting point is 00:25:15 and 103 yards per game with Aiden O'Connell in the center. So we get 66.5 against the Saints who just, I mean, offensively they can't sustain any drives. So we don't have to half against the saints who just, I mean, offensively they can't sustain any drives. So we don't have to worry about like this ball control offense. And we're like begging Brock Bowers to get back on the field. There's just no way that the saints can't move the football and stay on the field. So I don't think we have any snap issues there. He's obviously looking at this guy's way,
Starting point is 00:25:39 considering all the targets at 37% target share last week, which is absolutely bonkers. Saints have struggled against tight ends too. 28th in DVOA against the tight ends, and they have given up some monster performances. And when you look at who they've played, they've played like garbage tight ends. They've played like nobody really at tight end.
Starting point is 00:25:56 They've given up good games like Kyle Pitts. Last week, Monday Night Football, like Kraft had like three catches for 60-something yards on him. Gave up like nine catches to anyone with a pulse, like Njoku, Travis Kelsey. They've given up some big games. I think early in the season, Goddard went for like 170 on them. So they've had a hard time with tight ends all year. This dude's just going to get fed.
Starting point is 00:26:18 So 66 and a half, love going to the well on Brock Bowers. We could play some ladders and some alts here too. Yeah, I can go with you on that. I'll probably actually throw that in. I've been doing a lot of two-leggers lately. Yeah, it's your thing. That might be the funnest way to bet, I'll be honest with you, because it's just fun.
Starting point is 00:26:36 So that would be one that I would definitely, you could just do the standard line. You don't even have to ladder it up. That's my favorite part about those. Standard two-leg or two-par laces, don't do this on the pickup sites. The pickup sites, you're paying the juice.
Starting point is 00:26:51 No, no, no. It has to be a sportsbook. Sportsbook. You don't want it to be minus 137. You want it to be under that. That's the way. They're killing you on the juice so but i mean if you have two minus 105s sportsbook sportsbook sportsbook sportsbook if it's over
Starting point is 00:27:11 like 137 or a number like that at you know for underdog at least that if it's over that you're both legs do that at underdog yes yeah those are those are good they're you know obviously nice options to have but if you are in a state where you have the option to to use a sports book and you want to do a parlay like slop saying that even a you know two three legger resist the urge uh to to do that on a pick'em site um because just you're you're sorry just paying out your nose um and it's just absolutely not worth it no two, it's not two legs. You got to go at least three, especially on a road.
Starting point is 00:27:48 Yes. Yeah. And really like, I know it's stupid to think about like six leggers, but when you do the math, the only thing that kind of makes it even reasonable is when you start doing six leggers. That's the only time you start to get actual decent value. 12 or so. So if everything you have like is minus 125 minus 130 minus 140 at sportsbooks if you have if you have six legs that are like that you just compounded your edge
Starting point is 00:28:11 um you're definitely going to win less times that's how they make their money because they trick you into thinking that you're winning more since you're winning more times with the two but you're winning more money six players so if you So if you're a real man or a real woman and you can stomach, you know, not winning that much, you know, times-wise, but when you do hit, you're hitting ginormous jackpots, well, guess what? That's the way. But, again, you want to make sure you're doing the math right. You cannot have a bunch of minus 105s.
Starting point is 00:28:43 If that's available at every sports book, minus 105, minus 110, that's not it. You want, again, you want minus 130, minus 140 at every book, and then that's where you're going to really take over. I would say even find the sharper books like Caesars or Pinnacle. Pinnacle has so much of player props. That's the rumor. I think my counter rumor is they are sharp at player props pinnacle is just they're just better at main lines but so pinnacle caesars they got 140 minus 140
Starting point is 00:29:13 there's your pick them right there find a six get six like find six of those and go to town buddy yeah yeah i mean you're rarely gonna find the best number for something on caesars but like they know what they're doing um they're good if you get the best number for something on caesars but like they know what they're doing um they're good if you get the best number you're paying a little bit of the juice but again they let you bet so again i know that's not a factor for everyone but uh the at least ability to get down uh you for to not have to like use multiple books for one bet something like that's really it's it's nice i'm willing to pay sometimes a little bit extra for the one click. I'm going to have to bet three or four things at the same time. I want one more play that I want to give the folks before we move on and start building some stuff.
Starting point is 00:29:52 This is a Saturday night sack prop. Island game all by itself. You can bet this on DraftKings or FanDuel. FanDuel, to get a sack is technically a half a sack counts as a sack. So you don't need a full sack. Only DraftKings and FanDuel have this market. Unfortunately, most of the other books have over under a half sack or something. Caesar just has one plus.
Starting point is 00:30:16 It's nice to be able to sometimes get that shared sack and you're still heading over here on DraftKings. So Joey Bosa on the Chargers over a quarter of a sack uh against unfortunately my boy drake may i feel bad doing this to drink man it's not about drake though unfortunately yeah it is about but the line oh man so the montree jacobs is right tackle for new england this is bad um this is the absolute best possible spot for Bosa to get. There are 145 offensive linemen in the league who have played at least 50% of their team's snaps this season. Jacobs has a 38.9 PFF pass blocking grade at his dead last out of 145 guys. 145 out of 145. He has allowed a league high 47 pressures.
Starting point is 00:31:07 Bosa does not switch sides. He will play every snap up against Jacobs in probably a neutral to positive game script in terms of pass rate. He's coming off of a season high 78% of his snaps. Bosa's just always hurt. He's played like seven, eight weeks in a row and he's coming off of coming off of 78% snaps here, which is nice for an edge rusher. Anything north of 70 is really strong for those guys. So the game that the Chargers need, absolutely love this spot for Bosa.
Starting point is 00:31:36 So over a quarter of a sack, up to like minus 120, 125. I think FanDuel's out to like minus 135, a little rich. But again, half a sack, you're still getting home here. So I absolutely love this one. Jam it in. Island game. Love seeing those snack plays. And you get to watch it on Saturday.
Starting point is 00:31:52 I had another one, but it was a little further in the week. And I wanted to get you a sack on Saturday because we got three island games on Saturday. It's just exciting. That's fun. That's fun. That's fun. Even though the game's probably not the best ones.
Starting point is 00:32:04 But, dude, it's in a full full. But you know what I'm saying? Like the game's probably not the best ones but dude it's nfl football you know i'm saying like any game's good like it's it is what it is you know what i mean like it even the one last night i still watched like it sucked but like i don't know it's nfl football it's like pizza you know what i mean even what's bad it's still pretty good yeah and it's like the longest i mean some of these are really fun to sweat because you know you're in the game're like, this game is dead. But then you see bosses out there on the field. Like, you're just like, all right, here we go.
Starting point is 00:32:29 I don't care if they're down 20. He's pinning his ears back. He's going after Drake May. You still got something to sweat, even though the game is like definitely dead. So it's a fun one. Brian, would you play one plus at even? I mean, I just, I really like getting the quarter sacks personally because again like i said just subjectivity of the scorekeeper of giving it a half sack to someone
Starting point is 00:32:52 else you know there's nothing more tilting where like your guy's definitely the dude that got the sack but for someone else like join the party and they share it and all of a sudden you're one plus is is needing a whole not sack. It's a little bit tougher. So without doing the math to calculate it, I would just say no. I really like it in the quarter. So stick with that. All right, buddy. Let's see.
Starting point is 00:33:15 What do we want to build? We want to build DraftKings. I mean, do we want to build Caesars or FanDuel? Let's do FanDuel. Okay. I know Connor likes Caesars, and Caesars is good. But Caesars is hard. I was looking at my picket stats. I'm down
Starting point is 00:33:28 to them. I'm telling you right now, if you're watching Caesar, next year is my year on you. I didn't know. I had no idea. Now that I know, I'm coming for you. All those softies are just Caesars. I had no idea.
Starting point is 00:33:45 I had no idea. But now that I know, you got to take some of your money back. You know what I mean? Yeah. Let's see some of the stuff we already got down on that we want to do here. What's our Gibson price? How high do we want to take Gibson? I'd say 40.
Starting point is 00:34:01 I mean, if you want to do 50, I could be talking to 50. But, man. Let's win win let's get that 40 yeah i just feel like he's got 40 in him i feel like at 42 you know what i mean like he carries one nine times 42 yards no one even knows like what happened and i misspoke earlier i know this week does matter for fantasy yes this is the championship yeah yes this week and what i my point was you're not picking them up for that like if you're in your championship game you probably got your running back questions answered i mean you're or you're hanging on by a thread you know you just gotta pull one more out of your ass but i mean i don't know like but in the betting world that whole
Starting point is 00:34:41 mayo speak kind of means or could mean something yeah oh so they fandled doesn't have the raiders they don't have brock bowers they know bastards okay i don't think we can do it at bally either yeah i don't even have bally yeah because that's like uh it's a nonsense book no offense valley i do yeah guys not for sure stop limiting me to like 12 too please if you're watching 12 is for me give me 50 bucks like i used to ask for 100 now master fit just give me 50 bucks like any book just give me let me do 50 that's fair 50 because then you can do a couple different books yeah i'm not in it for the money dude like. Like I, I do want to win money obviously.
Starting point is 00:35:26 Cause that's how you do it. But you know what I'm saying? Like I'm not, I don't have to make $300,000 betting this year. I don't have to do that. It's not me. Like that's a younger guys, older guys.
Starting point is 00:35:35 We just want to watch the games and have like 50 bucks on it. You know, like it, it, it, it, you watch it different. It hurts my viewing experience.
Starting point is 00:35:42 Yeah. You know, because like the minute, like something starts happening negative, I'm like, yeah, it's only 12 bucks's only 12 bucks but like if it's 50 or 100 i'm kind of like i'm still kind of in i'm like all right cool all we need is a pick six onside kick you know i'm still going through all those scenarios in my head but yeah yeah give me 50 bucks i like it um let me see here really really wanted to get yeah so they're lagging a little bit in some of these spots these these fans get in the game earlier it's so weird fandal doesn't do tackle props either
Starting point is 00:36:17 but they're the only book right now that i can bet live tackle props so they do nothing pre-snap pre-flop here uh but then once the game starts they got everybody posted just absolutely wild i don't when do they get posted they as soon as the first play of the game oh just okay yeah i mean it's that's another thing though about being experienced like you know that you know what i mean like right away there's lots yeah handling stuff and, that's just the way certain books act. And then you got to know your attack surface, know your enemy. Yep.
Starting point is 00:36:50 And I don't understand why these guys would, I don't know. Candle especially. Yeah. I don't know. I'm going to, I'm going to play one more play here for the people. And then I want to add it to,
Starting point is 00:37:02 to our legs of a parlay. So I want to, I want to get this in here. We'll add it to uh to our legs of uh parlays i want to i want to get this in here we'll give it to again all these go out to our four for four subscribers first so uh best chance to get the number first again they've already successfully moved a couple of lines today before i even was able to talk about it because um you know they take care of us we can take care of them first so uh i going to put this one out give this to our people first there's some good some good narrative
Starting point is 00:37:30 pieces with this one I think the people are going to like I think my boy Monotone is on this one too another guy on vacation this week these guys just taking I was thinking Monotone might join us today yeah these guys just on vacation dude's a stud I was thinking Monotone might join us today. Yeah. These guys just, you know, they want vacation.
Starting point is 00:37:46 I don't know. Dude, stud. Absolute stud. All right. I'm going to play this for the people. We're going to go readily available. Find some other – shop it around a little bit. I guess there's some other spots.
Starting point is 00:38:02 Calvin Ridley, over 62 and a half receiving yards this week um my boy monotone is in on that with me i believe we talked about early in the week i know he's traveling so he hasn't had time to write it up but i saw him talk about in the chat so i wanted to uh throw it out there for for him to do so because i already have it for the people but we've got a couple of narrative street things here slop kind of i love them together at the same time right they think it matters a things here, Slop. Kind of come together at the same time, right? They think it matters a little bit. It kind of does.
Starting point is 00:38:28 Two of them together. I don't think you could dismiss narratives altogether. Like, I get, like, not betting on a narrative, but, like, narrative does matter. It does matter. If it gets overblown, I think that's where the anti-narrative street people, like, that's where they come from. It just gets way overblown a lot of times it's a good topic because people were talking to people asking in the chat for like incentive information you know like so here's the deal that none of that is new anymore there is no bookmaker that is going to set lines that aren't taking that into consideration a little bit right
Starting point is 00:38:59 so you start jamming in all this dude needs dude needs X to get 1,000 yards next week. And it's like, well, yeah, but is that part of his team's game plan? Do they care that much if that guy gets 1,000 yards? Are they just going to build the offense around it? What do they really care? Especially if it's a team that's trying to compete for something. This is kind of just a combination of a bunch of things. Just by itself, the matchup is great.
Starting point is 00:39:23 Narrative things,ing two boxes here. Ridley got him on the mic this week. He's talking about, he wants to stack up back to back thousand yard seasons. He needs 143 yards over the next two weeks to get it done. He's got two weeks to do it. So he doesn't need 143 today, but he's playing his old team.
Starting point is 00:39:38 He's going back to Jacksonville where he played. He said, it means a lot to him to go back there. And they were chirping at him last week or like four weeks ago when they played, he wants to get back at played. He said it means a lot to him to go back there. And they were chirping at him last week, or like four weeks ago when they played. He wants to get back at them. He got peppered with 12 targets in that first meeting. Those were 12 Will Levis targets.
Starting point is 00:39:53 So that's basically adjusted down for like seven targets for a normal quarterback. So 12 is good. But if I could take seven, maybe eight Mason Rudolph targets, I feel pretty good about this. This team plays man and really has been a target hog against man all season jacksonville runs man almost as much as anyone against zone really he's got an 18 target share against man 29.6 is one of the league leaders
Starting point is 00:40:17 so in this spot 62 and a half i like the over on the longest reception too but again because i think he's going to get high volume of targets here, get himself halfway to where he needs to get to next week, 70, 80 yards here. I want to play like 80 plus here on this. So I wanted to fire out the 62 and a half before he moved it. But I love this one. Any thoughts on Ridley in these narratives? The rain.
Starting point is 00:40:39 They were spraying the guys down today. And that kills me. I hate that. But the wind's not bad here, though. Florida rain. We don't know that that rain's going to last. Like, it's scattered showers. Those showers can pop up anywhere.
Starting point is 00:40:54 They don't have to pop up over that stadium. So that's the thing. To your point about the 1,000 yards, that – people do think about that it it comes up though you know what I mean so he has to be in that position but like later in the game stuff like like there are opportunities where that happens I mean Brady used to do it a lot like a lot with guys bonuses he knew you know what I mean so and whenever it got to that point he'd get it for him so I don't know I think that's a thing i think that's a real thing and to be honest like you're also betting on talent here too so yeah you know what
Starting point is 00:41:31 i mean yeah i'm betting on like that i think really the first part of the handicap was that i saw the massive i know his splits with with man versus zone are pretty massive the opposite of chig who we went to successfully last week toiga kanku went bonkers for us last week um really good against zone struggled a little bit against man so that might not matter if he's going to continue to get peppered with targets but ridley has been the dude against man coverage now he's going up against his boys who were running their mouth last time again a game where they have nothing to play for really uh just like let's just help our boys shut these other guys up a little bit right division right play for really uh just like let's just help our boys shut these other guys up a little bit right division play for pride play for pride and help our help you you know your
Starting point is 00:42:10 wide receiver one so yeah so according to kevin roth he's kind of my guy he's saying 48 chance of rain one o'clock uh. That pretty much lasts for the whole game. 75 degrees, though, which is pretty good. No wind. No wind. No wind. 11 miles an hour, but that's not – like, those stadiums can handle that. No.
Starting point is 00:42:39 Yeah, I don't have a problem. Like I said, I get always – I hate when they're spraying them down with water in practice. You're like, guys, come on. Is it really going gonna be that way i hate that because then it gets a slick football slick this like that i know the numbers don't really bear it out but i still believe in rain i hate it as a past guy no i get it i'm more of a give me rain i don't mind it it's a sustained winds right we get to like 20 plus sustained winds. They're a little bit more problematic, but you just give me a little bit of rain,
Starting point is 00:43:08 I'm not too worried about it. Especially Florida rain. That's way different. That could be a quarter and then it's gone. That could never happen. It could be raining literally across the street from the stadium and never hit the stadium. I lived down there for 30 years. Trust me. Florida rain is different
Starting point is 00:43:24 than any other rain. It's not the same. It's humid. It cools you off a little bit. You feel nice. It actually might be welcome, like a mist. Jeff's in the chat. He wants Mike Evans so bad.
Starting point is 00:43:34 I know. I can tell. Settle your ass down. I mean, come on, Jeff. He's got two weeks, Jeff. Especially with the opponent this week, Bucky might steal all the yards. Yeah. Like that could happen.
Starting point is 00:43:48 That could really, that that's going to suck too. Dude, everybody's watched a game where they had a receiver and then you just watch the running back, just run up and down the field. And these guys, you're like,
Starting point is 00:43:59 I'm dead because why, why, why are we throwing this guy? I really like to just hand it to this dude. He gets me 10. Yeah. Or you got up 14 zip early and all of a sudden you're like, oh, man, he's got to get home in the first half, or otherwise we're going to be – you're starting to root for the other team
Starting point is 00:44:13 to start doing something so that you aren't dead. One team has given up 2,000 yards this year. It's the Panthers. They've given up 2,100 rushing yards to running backs this season 415 attempts but again those attempts are taken away from passing it's it so i yeah it's it's i i hate seeing having a receiver and then taking i'm sorry having a team like that and then taking a receiver over here like this this could end very poorly yeah that could be bad especially if we're watching
Starting point is 00:44:45 it like if you're not watching it whatever you just turn yeah who cares watching that game like oh no no as our guy cd did it last week i had cd over 71 and a half like breaks his shoulder but gets it uh gets it done right away so we're like oh sweet you don't have to worry about cd thank god i needed one more yard out of him on that touchdown like he got i would have given it to him personally but uh the one they called a touchdown yeah they said it was not a touchdown and i knew right away cooper rush that touchdown prop was dead because that's just how it works i know that was in the second quarter that was the second touchdown i'm like cool i cool. I just cashed. We're done.
Starting point is 00:45:27 And then it's like, oh, wait, they're reviewing. And you know right then and there, you're just like, damn, man, they got me. They got me right now. And sure enough, the Elliott next play, he's in, touchdown. I'm like, dude, we're not getting this. Watch. We're not going to get a shot. And I'm not even like that.
Starting point is 00:45:40 Yeah. I'm usually a – You're an optimistic guy, yeah. I'm with you. I'm always like, those are tough. optimistic guy. Yeah. Like that's those, those are tough. Like that's the gambling. God's laughing at you. You got to immediately start looking for something in the next game. When that happens to you immediately.
Starting point is 00:45:53 So I, what do we got next? I'll be back. Yeah. I think I'm quitting. I'm not quitting. That's I had to do that this year more for my mental health. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:46:00 I love our subscribers before, before, uh, they're fantastic. Love sweating games with them i can't do in the first half because it starts like getting real mad and frustrated about you know a dude who hasn't been on the field for 15 minutes in real time and like where he's trending and it's like just can we just we slow down yeah yeah on that emotional journey with you yeah
Starting point is 00:46:19 exactly or the over one and a half reception guy it's like well yeah and caught me like dude he needs two for the game. You know what I mean? Like, let's let these guys get behind. Let's let that happen first. Then we'll start worrying about. It's built into the handicap. It's like, well, let's let this play out.
Starting point is 00:46:34 This is supposed to be fun. Yeah, I was going to give you a drug reference, but I'll spare you. No, okay. I mean, we have the kids in the background. You're not in your daughter's room anymore. Yeah. I don't think they're here. It's like uh they ever taken uh ecstasy or acid oh one of those it ain't hitting yet oh this ain't doing it like buddy you need to relax you know what i mean because you're gonna eat more and you're gonna want to go to the hospital i once once spent the christmas evening underneath my friend's christmas tree
Starting point is 00:47:01 uh staring at myself in the reflection of a red ornament for solid four or five hours. Stay away from the mirror, definitely. With the reflection of a red ornament, you really can't see yourself except you're just kind of distorted. Acid's wild. It'll get you. Same with
Starting point is 00:47:20 shrooms. Shrooms are legal in a lot of states. Just give it some time give it some time yeah sports band though give it no time we got time relax yeah yeah uh my son still doesn't watch the show so we're still okay yeah we're good ooh some something i've been waiting for just popped so i'm gonna see what that is so um all right so we got two legs so far i'm in here i got calvin ridley 80 plus uh we got antonio gibson I'm in here. I got Calvin Ridley, 80-plus. We got Antonio Gibson, 40-plus.
Starting point is 00:47:48 What do we want to do? How high up do we want to take Bryce? I mean, we can go 250 on that guy. I like 250. We could get Bucky in there, too. Let's get Bucky here. Yeah, let's do it. Let's go passing props.
Starting point is 00:48:06 I'm on FanDuel, So we'll go all passing yards. I like 250. Plus 174. I'm good with that. Let's go. Sorry, Jeff. We're not going to get Mike Evans in this because we're giving Bucky the leg for sure. Dude, it's Bucky. It was all about Bucky.
Starting point is 00:48:21 100 plus. Plus 196. That's fine. It would be beautiful if Evans was very quiet this week and going into next week needing something. Yeah. Also, what they need, too, is very important because you don't want the books to be able to price it.
Starting point is 00:48:43 Correct. You know what I'm saying? So if he needs $1.30, that's good. Do you know what I mean? Because his number is not going to be $100. You know what I'm saying? So like $1.20, $1.10. If he needs $75, trust me, it's going to be –
Starting point is 00:48:58 the number is going to come out $74.50 minus $120. You know what I mean? It's like, dude, this sucks. This does me no good knowing it. It'll be $85. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:49:09 It's tough. Yeah. So that's great. Again, context matters for sure. So you're going to take all these things into consideration. What else do we want to do? So we got Ridley, Gibson, Bryce, and Bucky. They don't have, so we got your two plays in here.
Starting point is 00:49:23 We don't have, unfortunately got your two plays in here um we don't have unfortunately anything on brock still uh which is a bummer which is really frustrating so um lost that is there anything else in the alts anything else that you're eyeballing i mean i know you probably don't want to hear this but michael pitman Yeah. I mean, so I played really off-market Josh Downs earlier in the day. But again, if we might have some – yes, they know. They have rushing. They don't have any receiving props up for the Colts. Because again, if we have a situation where we have Flacco,
Starting point is 00:49:58 yeah, we're cooking. Yeah, Pittman's up everywhere except Vandal. Same with all of those guys. Bastards. All right. Hang on on should we pivot to caesars let's see let's pivot to caesars so i mean brock bowers feels like a free like too so pat like 80 plus brock i mean yeah no that's a valid point it feels like we need to get that one in there so let's get caesars up and see we can get again we might be paying a little bit worse prices for some of it that's all right so let me get the other ones back in here we'll get gibson back in 40 plus on gibson i like that one
Starting point is 00:50:36 that's hot all right so yeah we're in the same range 175 uh we're gonna add our dual leg let's see all right we see brock bowers you guys gotta have brock bowers receiving yeah you got bowers 80 plus plus 130 90 plus two to one do 90 plus yeah you got 99 last week yeah he's in it doesn't have to worry about weather at all here it's 90 plus two to one do 90 plus. Yeah. You got 99 last week. Yeah. He's in. It doesn't,
Starting point is 00:51:09 we have to worry about weather at all here. It's lovely. Yep. Course field of the NFL back in the day, as they would say. All right. We'll go back to Bucky. We'll go back to young. We'll get these alts in here.
Starting point is 00:51:23 So yeah, moving to Caesar. Sorry folks, a little slower, but you know, this is these alts in here. So, yeah, moving to Caesars. Sorry, folks. A little slower, but, you know, this is why Connor, again, at ConnorAllenNFL on Twitter, if you have issues with pace of the show here today, this is something we outsource to him because, you know, we don't really need any thoughts on his bets. We just need him to.
Starting point is 00:51:40 Yeah, he's our put it in. We need a put it in guy. Yeah, he's definitely our resident put it in guy for sure classic connor all right all right now we're in now we got to get ridley back in and then we can start to look at pitman start to get some of the other stuff so we have we're four legs 53 to 1 don't hate that let's see what else we got here rid Ridley. Ridley, I'm going to go with, I think, 80 plus. What's our price? Yeah, plus 150.
Starting point is 00:52:10 That's good. Don't get crazy. We're going to hit this one this week. Yeah, we need one to hit. We need a winner. Yeah. We had a couple legs last week. We were alive.
Starting point is 00:52:19 We were right there. The boys know, dude. They're scared. You like Pittman over Down downs um i kind of like the receptions but that would be predicated on the giants actually doing something which is scary yeah we're getting a better way better number on 60 plus for pitman 60 plus dude it's not it's just it feels like a lot or we just leave that all together and just go to the Vikings. I think they're going to throw on green Bay,
Starting point is 00:52:49 but I also think green Bay is going to throw on them. That's where something just popped that I was looking for. It just came up, which kind of means Aaron Jones might be in play. Maybe we go receptions. I mean, we got options in that game games played inside. A little fast track. Yeah. Let I mean, we got options in that game. Game's played inside. See a little fast track.
Starting point is 00:53:07 Yeah, let's see what we got here. Yeah, three and a half receptions for Jones is plus 155 at Caesars. It's a very good price for that. Actually, it's 162 at FanDuel. All right, Aaron Jones, all receptions three plus, would you say? Three and a half i think you can catch four balls i think that um okay four plus 155 i think they're gonna have to throw okay the vikings and if you want to keep him involved i mean if that game is played with
Starting point is 00:53:37 them trailing you know that's or even a dog fight, I would say that's play. A target five times last week. I mean, that's tough though. He hasn't done this in quite a while. Let's see. Let's pivot to yards. You know what those slop James Cook never had a hundred rushing yards till you told us he was going. I remember that. I remember that. I think this is, yeah. I mean, like I said, four catches is kind of a lot. I mean, that's, that's a lot for runner. That's as high as I want to go. But let's just say this.
Starting point is 00:54:09 Last time they played, caught four balls. Just saying. I'm good. I'm clicked it in. Four plus Aaron Jones, plus 155. Six legs out to 34, or plus 350 to one. So we're rats. Let's see let's see what else is there other some other notes what else do i want to get down on um 29 and a half receiving you are just plus 180 for jones that's a little high for me yeah i think he catches four balls Four balls, okay, yeah
Starting point is 00:54:45 I like it He had a target five times last week Yeah He had a target five times So anybody that wants to talk about Hawkinson Kind of being like back-back Jordan Addison, you know, commanding some respect Justin Jefferson
Starting point is 00:55:00 All those guys are in play Still was targeted five times Yeah So there you have it Yeah, I like that I like it quite a bit Ah, jeez, what else do we like here? Jefferson, all those guys are in play. Still was targeted five times. Yeah. So there is that. I like it quite a bit. Jeez, what else do we like here?
Starting point is 00:55:12 Man, what are the prices on some of this stuff? And I love Puka this week. His lumber is 87.5. So to get Puka to make it worthwhile, we can't even really get there i mean 100 100 plus is plus 130 i mean yeah those are tough i don't want to call a hundred yard game and barely get anything for it yeah 130 you know what i mean it's like come on man that's been a great call i mean i know it's puka but at the same time like it's still 100 yards here's what i you know sitting on whether or not i want to play it officially so i'm going to give it i'm going to give it to you get your
Starting point is 00:55:44 thoughts on it because we kind of danced around this thought earlier. Last week, there was – Brees Hall went back to his normal, full, dominant three-down roll. He played 24 to 25 long down and distance in two-minute drills, snaps. Basically, the other bozos that have been mixing in, not even there. The bills have been the worst team in the league at stopping pass, catching running backs.
Starting point is 00:56:13 They have faced the second most targets. Second, they've allowed the second most receptions, but they've allowed by far the most receiving yards out of the backfield. Again, two score dogs here, five, six targets for hall.
Starting point is 00:56:25 His number is 21 and a half. It's light. I played receptions over last time they played. Again, last week, I think he cruised over like 40-something receiving yards. Again, like – I didn't know that was even available. I would bet my house on that responsibly. 21 and a half.
Starting point is 00:56:43 Last week I had three and a half or four plus receptions at Fanatic. They gave like plus 135. I didn't even see him cash it. Like I joined kind of late and it was already over. Yeah. So over three and a half, it just basic, you know, so you'd have to get five plus receptions to get plus money. That's not fantastic,
Starting point is 00:57:01 but just straight up yards is just very attainable. 30-plus receiving yards plus 117. 40-plus plus 230. It's, you know, tough. You need, you know, home run type shots. You need, you know, a 20-yard explosive in there to mix in, but I don't hate it, to be honest. So Brees Hall, I think, is a really interesting look. I just don't i don't hate it to be honest so bruce hall i think
Starting point is 00:57:25 is a really interesting look um i just don't know that playing the alts here is priced well so i don't know what the best way to do it is we just do his normal line here on seizures is 23 and a half i think vandal drafting is 23 and a half but there's some 21 and a half's out there as well so yeah it's light man flight yeah 21 and a half it's like minus 125 at certain spots crazy yeah um well where do we go to 30 plus looks like plus 117 yeah 148 at ballybet those are the those are the only that's a nice problem i have where you're like damn man like yeah it was once 148 over there. One 17. That's tough.
Starting point is 00:58:06 Well, let's add it. We like it. So we're just going to add it. We got seven legs. What's 10. Yes. Let's see. 10 bucks gets us a cool 7,
Starting point is 00:58:17 800 bucks. That ain't bad. $700 is pretty good. We can use $7, 800. So again, we started at a million. We've backed down responsibly. Let's get one home, you is pretty good. We can use $7,800. Again, we started at a million. We've backed down responsibly.
Starting point is 00:58:26 Let's get one home. Yep, and then we'll have $7,800 more to get a million parlays. I love Connor. We've been doing this together for years. He can get in still. Oh, yeah. How amazing would it be if we happened to hit when he's not here? That would be hilarious.
Starting point is 00:58:44 It would make for some good content. Yes, that would be very fun to hit. All right. All right, to summarize for the people, Bryce Young, 250-plus. Bucky Irving, 100-plus. Antonio Gibson, 40-plus rushing yards. Brock Bowers, 90-plus receiving yards. Oh, that did it again.
Starting point is 00:59:04 Calvin Ridley, 80-plus receiving yards. Oh, that did it again. Calvin Ridley, 80-plus receiving yards. Aaron Jones, 4-plus receptions. Brees Hall, 30-plus receiving yards. $10 to win 77 and change, almost $7,800. I don't see how that doesn't hit. I feel like it already won. Just saying, if you go up to $15, it's $11 and change. Obviously, $20, just a nice little $15,000 win for you and your family.
Starting point is 00:59:38 Maybe just you. $20, I'm going to have to turn that into $15K. I mean, man. Don't hate it. So locking that in. That's our bet for the week. It's good. It's good.
Starting point is 00:59:51 I like it. Sorry, Jeff. No Mike Evans. You couldn't get there, buddy. Next week. Next week, Jeff. Next week, Jeff. Strong maybe.
Starting point is 00:59:59 Strong maybe we get there next week. Yeah. Jeff agrees. No surprise. Connor's holding us back. This is the week. So good week to get on. Good, good week to get on. Narrative is strong. get there next week yeah jeff agrees no surprise connor's holding us back this is the week so good week to get on good good week to get on uh narrative is strong this week so all right brother
Starting point is 01:00:11 uh i want to remind folks high slop on youtube just go into youtube use the search section look up high slop you'll find his youtube channel all the stuff that he's doing uh again take advantage of the rebet deal expires on new year's. So new year's Eve, last chance to get it. Download re-bet deposit, 10 bucks promo code high slop. You get a month of his dub club a month with us at four, four.
Starting point is 01:00:33 And again, it's going away. So take advantage of that. Check it out. Slop anything else for the people. That's it, man. That's it.
Starting point is 01:00:40 I'm going to go live on my channel right now. Hit some tools at odd sham. sham ship we can find some plus tv plates if anyone wants to hang out love it fun fun that that tool is up over 5k this month that's crazy just with just stuff from the stream too like it's not like it's one of those where you say oh yeah we took that too like no no everything was on the stream like that's what it was so love it pretty cool man yeah let's go over there find slop on youtube in the youtube streets uh just search his name there uh i'm gonna jump in the four four bets discord i get another bat for sure coming here uh that just opened during the show and this
Starting point is 01:01:15 is you know friday night's tackle nights so we're gonna fire up those as well so take advantage of of that deal and jump in there so for slop i'm ryan we'll see you all next time thanks everybody

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