Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 18 2023 Player PROP BETS | Top Picks, Predictions & Odds

Episode Date: January 5, 2024

Dive into the thrilling world of NFL Week 18 player prop bets and explore the 2023 season's standout player prop bets. Your ultimate guide for expert insights on top selections, NFL forecasts, and betting odds, spotlighting the likes of Josh Allen and other NFL players. We provide unique perspectives on the most enticing NFL player prop bets for Week 18, perfect for both experienced wagerers and those new to the scene.Our goal is to elevate your betting journey with tactical wisdom and professional advice, helping you to achieve greater triumphs in your NFL Week 18 betting endeavors.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  / movethelinenfl  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  / rynoonan  Follow John on Twitter 👉🏼  / sloprules  Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

Hello and welcome to Move the Line, a prop drop show presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan, back with my friends to talk about the best way, the most profitable way to bet on NFL football, and that is through player props. Continuing here every week, we'll be here through the Super Bowl, live 2 p.m. Eastern, every Friday on the 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel, giving out our favorite player props and taking your questions, our favorite part of the show.

If you're hanging out with us now on YouTube, jump in the chat, let us know what your favorite prop is for week 18 it is a wild week it is a fairly limited board still uh so we're maybe a little bit limited too and what we can talk about today so maybe some speculative plays maybe some things were uh waiting to come out obviously you know we know that the silliness that happens in week 18 although like i feel like we have a pretty good idea of who's doing what but there'll be some interesting opportunities here. If you were looking for the podcast, it'll be in your podcast feed on Friday evening as well.

Subscribe to both the YouTube channel and the podcast. You do not miss a show. Supporting it's free content, so thumbs up. All those things go a long way. Comments helping support the show. Joining me here, as always, from Mexico. I already saw a margarita being sipped i'm a little jealous uh connor what's going on not much yeah it's uh my one of my last days here so i figured i'd kick

the show off strong get a good mark flowing and uh you know roll it into dinner so you know i think should be a fun show the board is really weird i feel like i have one you know one official play but i think might have a couple others One of them is kind of still waiting on the practice for it. We'll see. I think a couple other good topics to talk about since Twitter is like a war zone right now among the capper streets, but some good topics to chat about.

I think there's some fun, interesting topics on both sides. Also joining us here in this spot every week from Odds Jam at Slop Rules on Twitter. John, hi, Slop. Slop, how are we doing today, bud? Just living the dream, man.

I'm not in Mexico, but I might start drinking soon. Whatever. It's Friday. Who's judging? Yeah, it's PM. Happy hour somewhere. Yeah. I did a spot on You Better You Bet with our friends over there, Nick and Ken the other day.

And they were, I could not believe that Connor had the audacity to take a two week vacation. Connor, did you do your spot? You had a, did you do your a week? I canceled two weeks. Yeah. Two weeks in a row. I was like, Hey guys, you know, I'm already kind of in hot water here because I'm working while on vacation, you know, basically the entire time. And so I was like, taking more radio spots is not something that is going to happen here. So give me a two week break and I'll be back in playoffs.

Stunned that you had the, I went to bat for you a little bit. I gave you crap. I just, you know, joked with you. I want to be calling around when I grew up. I'm like, Hey, look, we had a show on Wednesday. We got a show on Friday. He'll be there. He's putting in the work a little bit. So I didn't realize i was throwing you under the bus that you know you bailed on them uh but you're still doing your four for four work but hey company man knows where his bread's buttered you know i appreciate it but we we love nick and ken and uh you better you bet team and uh great stuff that they do over there so uh yeah one of the folks two or two episodes of move the line each week. Just talked about Connor did his first episode already.

Game previews on Wednesdays. We'll continue those as well through the Super Bowl. Connor, myself, Sharp Clark, 3 p.m. Same YouTube channel, same podcast feed. If you want the official place, I think this is a really important week. I think we're going to have some stuff that populates maybe live, maybe more live betting opportunities based on what's going on. You want to be in our Discord.

To get in the Discord, you need to have a betting subscription. Betting subscription, typically a lot more money than it is right now because we only have a few weeks left. But again, it's going to get you everything that we do on the site. We're still betting MMA and NBA and MMA as well. So $19.99 to take you through the end of February. Really, really cheap just to get a sense of what we do, how the Discord operates, all those things.

If you're considering us for next year, check that out in the show notes. You can go over to 404.com slash plans and check it out. So Connor, do you want to touch on some of the, like you talked about the Twitter capper stuff? I mean, it is like, it's a light board. We might not have all the stuff too. So like your questions are going to be important today

to people. So jump in chat, let us know. There's been a lot of like fake tickets, fake lines, no price. We've had like, what else do we have? Obviously we had the, you put your nose out there a little bit in terms of like the incentive tweets and stuff going on this week. It's been kind of a wild week. I forgot about that.

Yeah, it's been a long week. And I was one of my New Year's things where I was like, you know what? I need to start just being a little bit more out there with some of these people because there's a lot of crap going on on Twitter and maybe it's not good for the

kumbaya, circle, hand-holding, circle singing that the fantasy community likes to do but the gambling streets i mean it's the wild wild west out there and there's a lot of bullshit being spread out there so like you know we first off let's recap the week we had sal beatry posting incentive bets without a price without any props without anything available i mean it's literally useless information uh i mean his only goal is for engagement farming which hey to each his own uh certainly not my goal i enjoy money more than likes and impressions but

he also has a page whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa i think so hold on i think your point pushing back on the sal stuff from an engagement farming standpoint holds more water because you yourself sir are very much sometimes elbow deep in the engagement farming. So you're not like poo-pooing the engagement farming. It's something you actively participate in. But you're also trying to protect your people and casuals out there too. Because those are the people that are going to get railroaded by, consider this line. Consider this, like without any prices or without any actual lines, right?

So again, I don't want you know i don't want to step on your toes i think it makes your point stronger because you yourself are the king of engagement farming yeah i mean i'm firmly in the fields farming you know plenty getting my hands dirty like but there's always a point to it there's things that people can bet or ways that people can use this information you're tweeting it out on a monday at like you know 10 a.m like no one's gonna be able to use that ship by the time it Kicks off it, but whatever. Okay, so that that was one thing I got some backlash there I just surprised how many people you know, love Salve tree. I guess I just didn't know I guess he's 160,000 followers

But you know, whatever. I just didn't think the information was all that useful regardless And then we had a guy Bo knows tweeting out a ticket that you know he so he does this like photoshop thing where he like puts in his like logo or signature or something so that no one copies his slip um and then one of the bets he claims is a bonus bet that was like i think it was 2 000 to win 10 000 but didn't include the stake and then the other one did include the stake in the payout and so everyone everyone was like, this is fake. The math's not mathing. I think that it could be real.

And I know that's a little bit of a hot take here. I think slop agrees with me. I think that the slip was real because. 100% real. Okay. So there you go. I mean, I think he would have maybe backed off or said something else by now if it wasn't real. He's doubling down, tripling down, whatever.

But based on everything I know, that is like a legit thing bonus bets don't include the stake back um so the math well it doesn't make sense at the top you know i think it actually does make sense but then he doubled down and said fanduel doesn't limit people which is simply not true fanduel does limit people all the time and he said that if you buy if you're limited you're violating terms and conditions also simply not true i just posted a picture on twitter if you want to go check it out of two bets that i just found like in two minutes on my phone trying to bet 100 bucks on i couldn't bet 100 bucks on either so anyways slop i'm curious your take though on the on the fakes you know the fake slip just get 2024 started here because i thought it was fake to start but then i dug in a little bit more. I don't think it's fake. At least that's what I'm at.

Let me go with the Sal Vitri first. I'm all for engagement farming. I love seeing those because I see all these dudes get so fired up. Cause when they're reading, cause I'm reading, I'm like, all right, so Pippen only needs 46 catches to break the single season record. You know what I mean? But no, but you know what I'm saying? So I love reading those just because I know how it's going to get everybody riled up. Like let's throw the pot. You know what I mean? It's early in the week.

Who's got shit going on anyways? You know what I mean? Let's just, I love it. He went out way before. Like maybe we're talking days before we're going to see any lines and any of this stuff's useful. He's out there. So hats off to you, Sal.

You got Connor fired up. You got pretty much everybody fired up there was another guy uh on twitter pazola he was like going in on the guy too i was like jeez oh yeah so the soloist thread was fantastic i thought it was really because it is irresponsible yeah but i honestly man i just love the fact that you got two dudes in the space going at you probably more i i tried to look at all of them up, but man, you were getting nailed from every angle. So hats off to him for that. That was awesome.

And then the bow thing, I'm a big, like, I want a villain in the space. Like, I just think it's more fun when there's just a guy that, you know, is unhinged and could go at anybody at any point.

That's fun to me. So nice work on that bow. You are definitely the villain. So stay – like villain bow is the best bow there is, by the way, just so that you know. Like that's the best one, best version of him. That ticket, no way that's fake. Dude, those Discord guys do that all the time.

They have like a graphics guy come in and fix up the – like the faking of the number is not part of that. You know what I mean? That was like, those things are meant to like make the graphic look good. Does that make sense? They took the bonus bet out, whatever. The guy's got a million of those tickets, dude. Like if you go through his timeline, he's got a million of them. They're in his, like, I don't know. Like that's just not his game.

Like that's not, he's, he's trying a different angle at stuff. Like the fake and the ticket just doesn't make sense. Like, I don't think that's fake at all. Yeah. We also have an update here from, so I tweeted this out about the limits. Andrew Long, this guy who follows me, I think this is hilarious. He's a FanDuel sportsbook supervisor in Maryland. Like he like literally is a sportsbook supervisor.

He's, he responded. He said, I can attest that he is wrong. So there you have it. Bo, I mean, we know you're not listening, but whatever. If somehow this gets back to you, you're wrong. Bo's always listening. Bo knows, dude. I don't know. I've known Bo for a while now.

Look, man, he is an elite troller. Elite. I mean, it doesn't get a lot better. And I say, keep it up, bro. Just keep going.

Just do something. Do whatever you do. I'm watching. I'm laughing. I think it's very, very funny when the entire community is in an uproar over some nonsense that Bo did. I see.

It's funny. Yeah. I didn't take me long to go and look and see the tweet that he responded with with like the bonus bat removed from it as you said like an edited thing they do for graphics so i don't this is not uncommon for connor and i were like he'll share this person that like and i'll look and i'll click on like this person has a massive following how have i never stumbled upon it i stay very sometimes isolated like i'm just like doing my work sometimes my circles aren't great i'm not in like the twitter uh gambling sphere as much even though like this is what we do like i'm betting on stuff

i'm researching but i'm not in the uh the streets in the engagement farming as much as you you guys but i think nick's comment here in the chat too is is pretty spot on like the gatekeeping on like it is just wild like the people who just like choose to be in charge of like what's okay and what's not okay and like this is an okay bed or it's insane to me like i that's part of why i love slop has it been so refreshing for us to have on the show this year where it's just like look here's i'm a i'm a $100 unit better. I don't care about this. I don't care about that.

There's no phony. There's no nothing. It's just like, bet. Bet whatever you want to do. You want to lay some juice? Lay some juice. It's to have some fun. It's to win some money.

Let's not pretend that we're anything that we're not. And you're not a professional. It just is wild. If you're like a professional, professional, this is what I do. Jesus, are you not giving away that much of an edge? You're probably not just like mindlessly scrolling through Twitter as well. You probably don't have time for that. Cause you probably have to be grinding and doing a ton of stuff.

It's just, yeah, it's just wild what people pick and choose what they want to like cape up for. And yeah, it's, it's, it's insane. I love it though. I cannot get enough every time I say like I saw the Sal post and I saw it immediately that that I think in the morning like I saw it very early for the first time it was like this is perfect like this is so good because man this is gonna piss off literally everybody I I can tell you. And, dude, it was already happening.

Once you click on the quotes, you're like, yep, there it is. Everybody's quoting them. It was great. And then Bo yesterday, that was out of nowhere. That was out of, like I said, not even his doing. Normally, it's he's the one causing the problem. He's actively going after somebody like Caruso or literally every other Discord person there is.

Usually, he's doing it yesterday wasn't even him it was just somebody spotted that ticket and just like the entire like world felt like you know just was on him it was i don't know fun to watch he'll fight out of it though okay he's good uh paulson's in the chat so we got to give him some uh some plays i assume he either has to get back to a vacation or back to watching a jordan love highlight video probably one of the same thing i think those are probably the two things uh that probably go together he's probably watches jordan love highlights on uh one of his 12 annual vacations which should start soon uh your 18 weeks

of work are basically over buddy so let's get you some props you can pay for these and uh we'll go from there connor floor is yours week 18 let's uh get paulson some money yeah paulson speaks we got to deliver um all right so my first one here uh you know this is gonna be a really disappointing week for slop because i don't have a lot but we're gonna go with an under so jonathan taylor i'm going under 72 and ab rushing yards um i mean taylor's seen all the work rate lately but we have zach moss full in practice, going to play this week. And he's facing off against the Texans here, who I think are going to have a lot of success passing the ball, who are going to push the game, I think. And the Houston Texans run defense, second run DBOA, allowing just over like 3.07 yards per

carry to opposing running backs this season. They've been insane on the run against the run this year. So tough matchup, potentially more competition. I don't think Zach Moss is going to see a ton of work, but even a couple of carries I think could make a big difference here. And then on top of that, potentially game script could get in the way as well. I think that this Texans defense is more of a pass funnel, so I think that's the direction that we see the Colts go here. So give me the under at 72.5.

I'd play it to high 60s. I think it's reasonable, but I don't think it'll get there because everyone's been, you know, slurping the Jonathan Taylor Kool-Aid lately. Slop, I don't know if you heard that. Did you hear any of that stuff? I mean, I heard under, and then I kind of zoned out a little bit. No, I actually kind of – I hope that he's right because I kind of like Houston. I kind of like Stroud to just light them up,

and I would hope that that would mean that the Colts aren't sitting on the ball and trying to run it on the Texans. So that kind of lines up with what I want to happen, so I'm in. Yeah, I know, Connor, you played the Nico Collins line earlier in the week. I know that's kind of sailed out a little bit. We can play 71 and a half, and I think we're 73 and a half in most spots now. Yeah, you want to know what makes this better is that my guy Sal is on the under. So it's going to be like a little head-to-head here.

Someone tweeted at me, and it was like a little head-to-head here with Connor and Sal. So, I mean, I think it just confirms Nico's going for about 50 here. And, you know, we're going to cash some checks. That was one I did not agree with from Sal. There was a couple on that list. I was like, yeah, I can get there. But that was not the Nico one. Is he incentivized to stay under?

So, I can't go against him anyways. Sorry, Ryan. All he's saying is you just got to consider taking the under. Don't bet it. Just consider it. Just a no bet. Fandle had a... Fandle was lagging on the Pittman

reception line. Six and a half or everyone else had moved to minus 150 or even seven and a half and plus money. I bought Connors. I think I actually just took like a 60 plus for Nico parlayed it with the Pittman six and a half reception line, just to give me a little bit of a little bit of a sweat there on,

on Saturday night. Hopefully we get some tackles to be some good tackles in that game. We can get some stuff there too, but yeah, kind of an interesting look. One of the games we know for sure that matters. Paulson, what are you around Paulson? I'm reading Paulson's comments here he likes the Nico over he likes Dalton Schultz Schultz to uh slop floor is yours first play for week 18

all right so people are saying that the Lions might rest people I don't think so I hope they don't but uh just because I'm going Justin Jefferson over 97 and a half receiving yards plus 125 at ESPN bet it's an obvious must win for the Vikings since I mean they have to win this game or else they're going on vacation so there's that but then at the same time like the the teams that they need help from are playing in the four o'clock slot so there's that too so they have to play this whole thing out I don't think that the Lions are resting people. Again, it's tough. It's murky water.

You don't really know. But I don't think they are. We'll see. But here's the thing. Justin Jefferson has demolished them. And with the Vikings in the situation they're in, they got a one-read quarterback playing Mullins. He's the only guy that can throw a ball after seeing Jaron Hall last week. So it's four speed, your best guy. Well, last time

Jefferson played him, he went for a buck 41 or a buck 43, something like that. Time before that, he was 223 yards. They can't cover him. He's been over this number, I think four out of nine games. One game, though, he left early. The other game that he didn't cover was when he came back and did not look like himself. And then another time that he didn't go over this was last game when he played half the game with Jaron Hall throwing the ball at him. So there's really only been twice that he didn't make it to this, and he got like 84-plus yards in both of those games.

If you want to go 125- or 120 plus, you can, because every single time he's been over 100, he's been 140 plus. There's that. But I think it's Justin Jefferson Sunday. Connor, where are you at there? Yeah, it's interesting. I know high overs are not really my jam, but I do think that it makes a lot of sense.

I mean, I already took Nico over, so it's already kind of in the highest bucket that I would consider. Yeah, I mean, I think Justin Jefferson could eat here. I don't know. Have you seen any Mullins props? Any thoughts about Mullins? Yeah, I got his 275. That was my next move. 275 plus. Yeah, next move. 275 plus.

No worries. I'm stealing that, Connor. No, but plus 110. That's at DraftKings. Look, if the Lions don't rest anybody, they're going to score all over Minnesota. They're a machine right now. So if that happens, then Minnesota's going to be throwing on them just out of, you know, game script. Here's the thing, though.

Even if the Lions don't, I don't think Minnesota can run on them. Like, I think they ran the ball for like 16 yards on 10 carries last time. I don't think that their Lions just learned how to block in the last couple weeks. So there's that. And Mullins threw for 4-11 against them. I mean, he did throw four picks. Two of them might not have been his fault. Two of them are definitely him.

But still, he went 411. I mean, he's a slinger. That's what he does. I mean, I think he started in two games. He's gone 300 in both of them. I just want 275. I'm not even greedy. Like, if you want to go 300 plus, 325 plus 400 for that.

That's not ridiculous, especially in an environment that they're in where they have to win. They cannot run the ball. They know they can't run. They're not stupid. You can throw all over Detroit. Everybody does it every week. Somebody just said in the comments, they're a pass funnel.

That's correct because they're good against the run. I don't know. What am I missing? 275 at plus 110, Draft's that's not crazy no i don't hate it at all i really do i think that there's enough there there i think that there's we've seen actually some decent performances from owens has been okay uh you know we know destroy this is not any shock we're going to have dan campbell going all out to win a football game regardless of you know what the outcome is or what the benefits are from them like they are going to be competing uh minnesota has again just a very very very small outside shot here of uh you know of competing here

as well in terms of you know playoff which is again not happening but i think that they go out too so great spot yeah no it's not happening but it's you know great great spot so it's more of a they have to do it, right? You know what I mean? For sure. But you can't just show up. The games are other games at four. You can't just show up and be like, yeah, we're not making it.

Dude, you have to make it. Yeah, a thousand percent. Yeah. It's also worth noting, too, Detroit, one of their run stoppers, what is it, Ellen McNeil or whatever is for sure playing as well. He's kind of been in and out over the last month or so, but I think he's a difference maker too. So I just furthers. There's Vikings running game outside of their game against,

I believe it was Cincinnati where Ty Chandler was just going nuts. It's been like absolute garbage. Doesn't matter where they put back there. I mean, they just haven't been able to run the ball and Mullen's been able to throw really well. So, I mean, barring Minnesota going up and just like, you know, getting way up, which I, you know, getting way up, uh, which I, you know, I really seems far fetched. I think that we're going to see probably a lot of past times here.

So maybe some Mullins alts for me too. I don't know. Maybe I'll throw it in my round Robin of the week. Uh, you know, something like that could be fun. Uh, I have some other supers from round Robin stuff, but it's like, uh, you know, we have like very few props. So, you know, it's, it's kind of, it's kind of tough to really dig into what they'll actually be. Jeff's firing some kicker stuff in the chat, which we love to see. We'll share some of those here.

Nothing like Week 18 kicker props. Get the juices flowing. I don't even know who Greg Joseph kicks for. I think he's the Vikings guy, isn't he? He might be. Or is that Linval Joseph who's not a kicker? Linval Joseph. I think he's the Vikings guy, isn't he? He might be. Or is that Linval Joseph who's not a kicker? Linval Joseph is not a kicker.

They got a Joseph playing for them. They do. They do. He spends one week in the Bible. Look at that. Of course he does. Busy making kicker projections. Paulson spends one week in the Bible, and he's all about, you know, he knows all the Josephs.

He's got all of his. He can tell you where they're all from. A lot of Josephs out there. All right. First one for me. I'll save that. I'm going to go Justin Fields over on rushing yards. You can get over 51 and a half on FanDuel.

If you have Fanatics, mind a little juice, shorter number, 50 and a half minus 120. This is 53 and a half. The rest of the domestics, DK, Caesars, MGM. If you have Prop Builder, 52 and a half. So you're in the middle there. So FanDuel pretty, you know, people can get it. If you're not limited, you can get down on FanDuel with the 51 a half we're gonna play that one so look at your fields yeah if you haven't violated

terms of service you know at connor or anything like that you're probably fine to get down so um look last game for fields there's no way he doesn't hear all the discussions about what's going on in the offseason bears it 101 again what are they going to do this is his last shot to make an impression going into the offseason because he has a shot to keep his biggest rival out of the playoffs uh he's going hard here and he's been running consistently there's 24 designed rush rate last week it's pretty much where they've been like between like 15 25 every week 10 scramble rate as well which is like translating another like three and a half four scrambles per week uh he's topped this mark in for the past six he topped this against the packers in week one poor performance overall from fields but like he ran 59 yards in that one

you look on the season green bay has given up uh 392 rushing yards to the quarterback position is the third most in the league. The injury report for Green Bay, a linebacker in safety, is not great. I just think this offense can run the football. They've been able to run the football all year, and as the offensive line has kind of come together, Fields is a big piece of that. You can go longest rush, I think, is interesting as well.

It's out there, 16.5. I just like the volume play here for Fields. I think he runs. I think he runs successfully, and 51 and a half is uh i think a pretty attainable bar so i'll slop any thoughts on uh on fields running this week i can't have green bay lose that's all i i just can't i i have these things can happen concurrently i know yeah yeah i'm with you i'm with you i i just i as soon as you started talking, I was like, shit, man. I did a few futures. I've lost every single one of them, not even close.

There's two that actually have a chance, and it's the Packers to make the playoffs, and it's the Steelers to make the playoffs. Steelers got to win and then get help from hopefully Miami. So now I'm rooting for Miami on Sunday night. But then the Packers is my one that I got a chance to to throw up an engagement farming tweet about what a what a beast I am with the um with the futures because I I hit one out of god knows how many because you know how it is in the summer you get bored at the end now you're all these and it's like what am I doing I have no idea what I'm doing

and they're just sitting your account and you stare at them for every single week about what a moron you are. And I need to see one go through the hoop so bad. So with that being said, I hope you win that one. I mean, I cannot root for them at all that day. Like, I don't know. But I think you're right on that one. I'm just saying I can't bring myself to even consider thinking about that.

That would suck so bad if he runs for like 200 yards and they just kick the shit out of the Packers. And, yeah, it could be bad. Yeah, I want to cheer for your ticket so you can get that engagement farming. But Steelers in the playoffs, they just – It was nuts. Again, I don't know, man. It was probably hammered, sitting on the back porch watching baseball,

thinking, man, I want to bet something on football, but we got weeks to go. So I'm just going to bet something, and that's what I was doing. I just was firing away like, yeah, that team's going to make the playoffs. Yeah, Kenny Pickett, he's the man. He's going to take a step forward this year. Jordan Love, probably going to win MVP. He's making the playoffs. You know what I mean? That's what you do in August,

and this is where you end up. Week 17, praying for some random stuff to happen so your bullshit ticket can make it. I have a Packers to make the playoffs tickets. So you're with me. Your guys, Nick. Nick and Ken. I think it was Nick.

He was on them. He was one of the guys that talked me into it. Bastard. Yeah, just blame Nick. Nick and Ken. I think it was Nick. He was on them. He was one of the guys that talked me into it. Bastard. Yeah, just blame Nick. Shout out FSM. No, we did a future show, me and him. And he's the only one that got anything remotely close to right. Everything I've put wrong, wrong, wrong across the board.

Connor has a nice, uh, engagement, uh, greet coming. If he can hit his, uh, what, 25 K, uh,

yeah, $20 to a 25 K. I bet on every single division winner slop. And I'm, I have five, right. And it's still allowed. It's still like, oh,

um, yeah, it is a chance. So I need the Jags to win. I need the, uh, let's see here. Hold on. I i need the jags to win i need the uh let's see hold on i don't remember miami to win unfortunately dallas atlanta and then carolina to win so i need atlanta to win the division so it's five teams 20 bucks to win 25k i mean yeah see mine those the ones that I did, those were dead in like week four. I was like, all right, that was fun. Yeah.

No, also, I think it's interesting here too. Nick added, this game could determine whether the Bears bring it back or don't deal him to draft someone. I have heard that plenty of times in the media, and I think that that's definitely possible. I just could not imagine making a decision off of one game let alone a stretch against a lot of bad teams on a player you've seen for three years consistently not elevate your team uh you know like they just he can't

win games consistently he's gotten better as the pastor o'connor yeah it's all about this game. This game's Sunday. This is the game. This is the one. Don't worry about three years of data and plays and film you can go look at. It's this game. You do it now, you're awesome. I like that. I like that better.

And I believe – I like Newton's prop because I do believe that when shit gets real for Justin Fields, he does not throw the ball. He just runs the ball and scrambles. And he's like, cause he's not risking throwing the ball, you know, out to some of these guys here, you know, like the,

one of the same Brown brothers or whatever, you know, it's like literally just nothing. So yeah. Also, you know, I think we're talking about futures here. Steve brought up a good point.

My Alan Robinson, Altovers, we finished 900, 950 yards short on a thousand plus yard drop. There was, I mean, he only needed 950 in the last week to hit his incentives yeah that's considerably over almost there yeah considerably over yeah yeah look you probably feel something like we're in chicago here connor like we're not bears fans we're in a unique spot where we're like we're not we don you know, cheer for the laundry per se.

I've not run into any actual Bears fan that wants them to start over and move on. And there's some Bears fans. And again, like they're not in charge of the decision, but like, it's just really interesting to me that I think anyone with, and I don't want to like discredit it, but I just feels like, Hey, you just, when you get a shot at the top of the board to reset the clock on the quarterback position, you probably should. When we kind of have enough about fields around like the issues continue to be the issues there are some wild plays on tape he'll probably

make some this week he made some last week and he's continuing to make them the last month against some pretty bad competition but in terms of if the goal is to win you you kind of i feel like you have to restart you have to take advantage you have to go into this and like assess who at the top of the board the quarterback position is your guy move on from fields restart the clock again like i haven't run into any bears fans i think that that's what they should do which is really wild to me but um yeah he's gonna run this game regardless so smartest thing you can do if you're the Bears is just put a bunch of Justin Field runs on tape this week and just find one sucker that'll trade you,

like a boatload for him, and then go grab another quarterback. You know what I'm saying? Like, that's the move. Again, you reset the clock, maybe get a nice haul for him, a haul that you probably shouldn't get, but, you know, whatever are you again you just need to find one guy one gm out there that one i can fix some guy and just sit and then gas them up like yeah man he's right there you can fix them maybe in your system he's you know what i mean like just yeah for sure atlanta the raiders on the phone for sure literally there's like 10 teams who i think would love

to have justin fields um and it would be maybe not 10 but at least there's at least a solid five who would be significant upgrade for and would probably pay reasonable amounts for and the whole like putting it on tape now is awesome for the bears and like they're going to keep pumping out super hard decision justin fields is our guy because it just upgrades his value like yeah they could totally not be thinking that at all and then now they can tell them for a literally mid-season like i if they traded him at the trade deadline like i was suggesting you know stupidly at this point they probably would have gotten like a third round pick or fourth on his pick because he played like ass the first half of the year and now he's just like rolled off

an awesome second half and you know now he's his value is good again it's not even an indictment on fields it's just as someone can can take advantage but even the bears usually probably should start over but yeah we'll wait and see uh benny gets it he's only here for jeff's kicker picks same i mean yeah it's only we had this show at this point just like you know we can sign on. We know Jeff will come in and then we get some free money for the week. Plus money kicker props. So, Coder, I know you don't have a lot of other stuff. This is our spicy section. You kind of flirted with a little bit of perhaps some round robins

or something like that. Is there something that you're looking at? Or is this a to consider section when other props emerge? Probably just because there's like three games out right now four games out but um what do you guys think about kenneth walker is he like you think he's gonna play you think he's gonna be good because his number is aggressively low if he's gonna see like 14 or more carries uh i like all of it 12 12 and a half carries is aggressively low. In my opinion, 55 yards is aggressively low. 14 and a half longest rush.

Like I considered, I considered all of it. He's so he was limited. So I was just waiting on this. I didn't want to release it, but he was DNP Wednesday and then limited yesterday. And then we're going to get another practice for here and probably the next hour or so. If he's full or limited again and trying to his right direction, I think his alternate played 110 yards last time. Literally, I think 15 of 16 games are running back.

His rush from more than 55 yards against Arizona, at least one running back. I mean, they're favored. It's a must win game. I think he plays. I think he goes. I just have a tough time betting it over on a guy where like we get a report and it's like oh kenneth walker's you know only gonna play but you know not really see much work but i don't know i feel like he's just gonna have to he's gonna get up for this game like

he did he's played the last couple weeks so i think it's a lot all right so this is a uh a sal pick like i thought about gino because uh he gets that bonus for making the playoffs. But the one reason why I can't get there is because you can run on Arizona. And to be honest with you, if you're the Seahawks and this is a must-win game and, you know, you got to make the playoffs, like there's no way I'd put it in Gino's hands. I would definitely pound the ball at the Cardinals and play defense and what I mean all I gotta do is play with a lead and you're probably gonna get anything you bet on Kenneth Walker so

yeah I mean I think Walker is the play here instead of the um I think I've seen uh the Gino thing for the playoffs and I've also seen DK. DK, I mean, he can get there, but you might not need him in the second half, and that's going to suck if you took him, you know. And then just watching them just pound Arizona, just nice run after nice run, that would suck. So that's where I am on Walker. I thought that was pretty good Pete Carroll.

Yeah, I've been looking. If you find anything, let me know because I'm pretty interested in that, plus maybe some alts. If you find anything, let me know. Another one is Andre Josivash. Dude, this guy is a baller. T. Higgins, DNP, doubtful, going to play the whole game. I mean, I think this guy's kind of good.

He popped off against the Steelers. I mean, he popped off. He was like four for 36. But, I mean, he played a bunch. It was like a, you know, his prop was eight and a half yards. Yeah, I was about to say, his prop was like seven and a half. So, like, yeah, I saw seven and a half that day. So, he did pop off.

I mean, he – Yeah, he was probably going to pop in the 20s, you know, something like that is what I would guess. If we're probably gonna pop in the 20s you know something like that is what i would guess um if we're in that range i mean god for the teens i'm probably gonna start being a little responsible here but you know i think that an alt over on him would be interesting um but i see here i've just a couple others jamal williams gonna play a lot um derrick carr's passing overs are interesting i don't know maybe take some some unders on dk mccaff our boy sal took an over on him so you know gotta gotta take an under um

no it's it's funny i think you're the man bro getting a lot of shit i've interacted with him yeah ever since i interacted with him now my my feet is just all him so i gotta like you know gotta get rid of that this is not producer sal former producer sal who we miss this is sal vitri's his difference is different vibes yeah and slot and i'm sure he's a good guy i'm sure all these people are actually good people and he's good dude i like him yeah he could be fine it's not it's not relevant so here's a real quick pete carroll two things pete carroll upset about the running game um saying p uh kenneth walker ran really well he his quote was more just more we need more uh and then he said uh the next day that walker is better today with

his shoulder than he was a week ago saying it's a good sign so this 12 and a half carries also really like really low um they only ran it 10 times so maybe that's probably his like more comments and there's been he's kind of taking back over from like charbonnet who was taking over a larger chunk there for a little bit they were sharing it's been more kenneth walker of late so yeah i think that's uh that's pretty interesting so all right uh slop what do you got for us again like you know limited we can do spicy non-spicy i know you got three so you know you can take one i got another uh we can kick around some defensive stuff all right so this one's kind of spicy i mean like really spicy like habanero uh whatever spice you're in that. Tyrod Taylor or Tyrod Taylor, whatever.

We all know who we're talking about here. Let's go 300-plus passing yards. And I think it is plus 700 – or I'm sorry, 275-plus, plus 700. I didn't see a 300-plus. I would think about one. I mean, look, guys, for one, the Eagles, they don't stop the pass. All right, they don't. Like everyone knows that.

Guys go 275 on them all the time. Terod Taylor just had 319 last week. They got behind. They let him throw. He can kind of cook a little bit. He had another game this season, went 279. It was the Commanders. I get it. But at at the same time the Eagles don't cover anybody either so there's that and again 319 last week just all it took was a game script to get there the Eagles are trying

to win so they're gonna come out but I bet the Giants are not laying down like they're playing that that coach probably has them like that to rod taylor is again one of those guys he's going to show up he doesn't get a lot of time in so you know he's going to do his thing if he's in again i just saying i will say that this is kind of crazy you could turn on the tv sunday and be like what the hell did i do but at the same time at plus 700 for 275, that is not that out. That should not be plus 700. That just shouldn't. So I'd say let's go that way.

I actually just for transparency's sake, I did 225. I think it was like plus 155 at DraftKings earlier. So I have not put this in myself. So I don't want to tell you to do something i haven't done without at least telling you that i haven't done this but that's my that's my one that i'm i'm actually going to do that at some point but it's good i think yeah i like i like that too you don't even have to get to 300 getting uh close to two to one let me see if i get to 300 but keep going sorry we know how bad they are.

I mean, this, that defense feels like a team that gave up, like just so bizarre how, how poor they've been. I can't, or any thoughts on, you know,

attacking the Eagles past defense here. I was debating on, I was looking at like Waller, Wanda Robinson, a couple of those guys, cause their numbers are just so low. I mean, we're talking about like 35 yards for Waller.

His receptions are interesting to me because he's seen like five, six targets last few weeks. I was going to dig more into like his usage versus Bellinger, like you're still seeing some time. But I think that was interesting. Wandale's, I mean, reception prop could be interesting. That's a slop guy for sure. So I don't know. I'm considering it tyrod to throw over 275 seems super aggressive but this eagle secondary has been bad god damn

margarita chat earlier whenever connor walked away right his delivery yeah no it was plus 750 right now at DraftKings. I don't see a 300 on him. I'm telling you, I think he can get there. I think the Eagles score on them. I'm dead serious. I think the weather's not that bad Sunday, not in Philly. It's not great, but it's not bad.

So it's not going to be like the snow game or anything like that. And I know you don't really subscribe to the weather, but I don't know. I like a, you know, give me a decent day. Don't have me in a pouring down rain. I got Tara Taylor at 275. Like, that sucks. But, I mean, dude, it's not that ridiculous. Again, it's plus 750.

Like, plus 750. Like, the guy just went 319 last week. I mean, I don't know. I can see it happening. I like it. I like it. I really do. And Tyron's a guy too. And you're thinking of like it's all narrative stuff,

and there's a lot of that here week 18. We have what we have. Tyron's a guy that's playing for another deal next year. He has limited tape out there in terms of where he is as a player right now. He's not getting a starting gig anywhere, but he wants to be a number two somewhere so like put on some nice you know put up some numbers uh put on some stuff on the tape nothing to lose nothing to lose you know they want to get some of the young guys in there too you don't think that those guys i mean why not you

know what like you're you're going on vacation you know it why not why not beat the eagles on the way out you know like that's just that's the way i see it like you got to think that that's the mindset in that locker room yeah no i like it uh mark's good connor we get mark delivery uh no it was uh the cleaning people so i was oh yeah i didn't know what to say so you didn't put the tune on disturb uh no i didn't yeah and it says so there's like you put the english one on right they can't yeah there's a there's a bedroom and it's right by the pool and so like literally you just hear kids screaming the entire time like when you're when you're on you on there so i'm like all right well i don't think anyone wants to you know know, listen to that the entire show.

So I'm in like the kitchen right now. We want to feel like we're in Mexico too. Yeah, I could have done it on the balcony. That'd be nice. Are the margs fresh squeezed? No, this is just resort margs. I just, you know, I think they make like a batch of, you know, mix. But they douse in tequila. It was like my grandpa's birthday the other day,

and he was just absolutely hammered off of three or four margs and was stumbling at dinner. So they make them fit. That's all that matters. That's how I roll too, man. Yeah. Get live. All right.

Next one for me, some spicy stuff. I have some other stuff that I like, but we'll kind of run through that. You mentioned a couple. I like uh yosivash one uh we might get i don't know if we're gonna get pierre strong rushing stuff but i think pierre strong is like actually not bad at football so we get like a decent amount of pierre strong i think that could be interesting maybe that's the same game parlay with yosivash whatever you want to do um jeff driscoll likes to run the football um and has like some posted some pretty big rushing outputs when he started so back in 2019 he made like three starts for uh detroit i think he had 50 rushing yards in all three of those games um and got some spot duty for the texans last year or even two years ago didn't have like great yardage outputs but ran

a bunch even unlimited snaps so jeff driscoll is like a one read and go kind of guy this is a good athlete like you i think the red sox drafted him i so i think he played third base or something like that like gotta be good if the red sox drafted him right yeah sox drafted him you went to florida yeah florida quarterback gator giant football huge huge dumper like what a massive squat when Yeah, Florida quarterback, Gator. Giant ass. Huge, huge dumper. What a massive. When he gets in there, that's it.

You can hold Connor's marks on the shelf there on the top of Driscoll's ass. It is just insane how that guy's. I don't know how you run that much with a caboo. So good. Yeah, Driscoll after dark. Yeah, it's, I don't know. He's going to run the football. Hopefully we get some Driscoll after dark uh yeah it's i don't know he's gonna run the football hopefully we get some driscoll lines um another one that's really really gross uh i think that it's almost like gonna be tasem hillish with what's going on in denver where we were like how come this guy's

getting so much work does like does he have pictures of Sean Payton or something like that? I think this Jaleel McLaughlin kid is Sean Payton's new toy, and he's, like, getting more and more work. So if we get, like, a combined rushing receiving on Week 18 for this kid, even if it's, like, 30, 40 yards, could be pretty interesting. But that last actual play here for you, Trey McBride, official play, over five and a half receptions uh this was plus money a couple hours ago it's moved a little bit minus 105 basically everywhere caesar's at minus 108 i'm not quite sure why we're still here for mcbride like he

should i think be at six and a half or we should be like juiced on the five and a half he's topped it in uh five of the past six games uh or five straight six of seven with kyler under center uh again last week against philly like we saw like the eagle they well we know what the eagles can do carter's going all out they're trying to win football games all season long we've been waiting for them like hey they should just tank and improve their draft position like they don't care that's not what they're doing at all they're competing uh you 97 percent route participation last week for mcbride he's going to be playing football uh in a game like they can stop their

division rival again from making the playoffs like full workload with no receivers really like greg dorch uh michael wilson like it's big bride here and uh this you know like safety linebackers beat up a little bit here for seattle so five and a half receptions, a minus 105 for McBride. I absolutely love going to play that. You can parlay that with any of the things that Slop said you need to consider in terms of Geno. You want to put a little Kenneth Walker in there. Kenneth Walker, 75 plus at McBride, over five and a half, plus 470.

Don't hate that at all. Connor, any thoughts on McBride? No, it's a good look. What did he have last week? Six. Six, right? Okay. And then the week before was the one you bet where you had like six in the first half, right?

Yeah. Yeah, he crushed. Yeah. Yeah, 5.5 seems pretty light. Did you get minus 105? Is that what you really said? Is that – or like minus 115? It seems light. I you get minus 105? Is that what you really said? Is that – or like minus 115? It seems light.

I like it. Yep. Slop, any thoughts on McBride? I've always been a big McBride guy. I like all McBrides. Danny McBride, the actor. Kenny Powers, he was awesome. Trey McBride, I love him.

Like, I think they get behind. I think you're right. I think they're still competing. I think they throw – like, I don't know. I think they're still competing. I think they throw it. I don't know. I think it's just business as usual for them. I mean, it's the last game. For these guys, it's his last game of the season.

You know what I mean? End on a high note. End of the road. Connors Hotel in Mexico right after. Bet I like so much I made it twice. all right what else we uh yeah it's good stuff hey what else did them anybody any takers what do we what do we see in pop here i i haven't seen a number but i don't i can't imagine that this thing is very high i i just can't. I mean, he was cooking last week. I had him 225 plus. He ended with 224. Very fun. Very fun. Especially on New Year's Eve. That's really fun while you're eating

hibachi and you're just watching this bullshit happen. But that was the Chargers' fault. That was not his fault. The Chargers were so bad that the Broncos did not really have to go full Jared Stidham on them i think the raiders i think they fight for that coach so i think they play i mean i don't think that they're great either and stidham did play there last year went 360 against the 49ers in a raiders uniform just saying that happened so dude 250 plus is probably going to be pretty spicy. You know, like 300, I would say, plus 300. But I don't know.

I don't know if he's good. That's the thing, just watching him play. I mean, he's obviously not great. But, like, I think this could happen. Yeah, nothing out there currently. Yeah, I don't see anything. Revenge factor? I can get there.

Jeff, shut up. He threw for 224 in a game where he didn't even have to throw the ball. He was cooking. That's cooking. When you're Jared Stidham, that's cooking. You just define what cooking is when you're Jared Stidham. Cooking is very relative. Just because he didn't kick a field goal

doesn't mean you got a shit on his big day. Yeah, I feel like he was cooking but he probably cooked some frozen chicken nuggets, but he cooked them in the air fryer so they at least tasted good. He didn't just leave them frozen. He didn't microwave

them. That would have been the shortcut here, but he just gave them a little crispness. He only cookedian you know that he's working with whatever bill parcells said that oh man you cannot you cannot do that uh all right what do we got jump in the chat corner your turn you can uh slide through here let us know we uh we have where people looking at if you're hanging out with us live jump in we'll get any get any questions, any of your sit-em-like thoughts, things that aren't currently on the board you want to get us to talk through. We can do that here too. Yeah, so our projection guru, Paulson, is pushing back on our Andre.

Yoshi Voss, I love hearing that Trenton Irwin was the guy who excelled without T. Higgins. Week 5 went 8-60. Week 10 went 2- 254 and then week 11 3 for 36 uh week 12 1 for 25 touchdown that doesn't even count as a good game um and so i think that the issue is that yoshi botch this whole thing was like before i think it was like two weeks ago when you saw his big spike it was like 76 route run or something like that they said pre-game like we're gonna get him like way more involved and he came in and crushed and then uh you know played awesome and then last week everyone was healthy so he barely played like 20 of the routes but now teagans is probably out

so i think they were probably gonna see both play well i think it's just whichever one you get a lower line on um so yeah i kind of throw out the early season stats here of like what happened here because i think i mean yoshibas can play like everywhere, um, but played on the outside, uh, perfectly well as well. So I don't know if it was specifically a Higgins thing being out or if it was just like, you know, it was growing as a player. It was the chase day. I think what in chase out that game.

Yeah. Yeah. Chase guy. That's I have him in my, in my brain as I, I hear his name. I think chase, is he out? And then now I'm in, if you know what I'm saying? If chase is in, then I'm out. Like in my brain as I I hear his name I think Chase is he out and then now I'm in if you know I'm saying if Chase is in then I'm out like do I'm saying so for whatever that's worth yeah it could be worse that's what Paulson is saying too he's saying that Irwin is Higgins replacement yo Chivas was Chase's replacement um I don't know I I think

it could be either I think it could be he passed him on the depth chart potentially, or we'll see. I don't know. I would rather bet on Josue Vasquez. I think he's actually, like, good. Yeah, he's good. You know, like, whereas Irwin is just, I mean, a jag. Yeah.

That's the thing. Not the wrong way to drag, though. Yeah, I mean, do you kind of know, right, like, what you have there? Don't you want to see a little bit more of the kid that you don't really know of, like give him an opportunity at this point versus like someone that you know is just a guy even at his ceiling? Like you made it to the NFL. We're not disparaging.

Yeah. You're drinking my margarita. Yeah. Talking ball. Yeah. It just is. You want to see if there's some upside to the kid, you give him a shot.

So I don't know that like he's been dubbed a one for one replacement. So yeah, I, I, I will happily go down that path. We took him live, took some like just all live stuff. Once the game hit a couple of weeks ago, I was at the Steelers game. Yeah. It was a great, great, great day. Yeah. And then you caught a ball and like the first driver, two balls or something like that. And then they reposted his live line. It went from like eight and a half to 16 and a half or something like that.

So it's like smash, whatever you can get in as quickly before that, you know, closed up and they reviewed it. So yeah, happy to go back to that. That might be the way to approach it. See what's going on. See if he's playing a lot. Hit the live line. Cause one of them is going to have four 34, 50 yards. I just don't know which one I would lean towards.

But I think he's good, but I'm also biased because again, I think he's good. So, um, all right, we got, we got shark burners in the chat. Shout out shark burners. Always a supporter here. We got some negative correlation plays. Uh, we have Daniel Stacy suggesting George Pickens. We have him drinking for 65 yards, line is 47 and a half.

He's been absolutely dominating. I don't mind that ever as a correlation play. The thing is, is that – or negative correlation play. The thing is, he's seeing a ton of targets. Like with Mason Rudolph, he is firmly out-targeting Deontay Johnson in intermediate areas, deep down – 100-plus yards per game. Yeah.

Only for the weather. I was looking at that this morning. It was 49 and a half. It's gone down to 47 and a half. The forecast has shifted. I think. And that game's in Baltimore to where like, I know you guys don't care about weather,

but I think that's why this line's gone down. I can't think of any other reason. I didn't think it was supposed to snow or have any type of weather effect at all just two days ago. And then this morning I went to look, I was going to make probably the greatest TikTok video ever with Pickens. I was going to highlight how he got snubbed in the pro ball and that's why he's going to have this day. And then I saw the weather and I just was like, yeah, I'm good. But now to see that the line went down to 47, I would have looked like a fool because i had 49 and a half and just two short hours later he could have gained two yards but still yeah i don't know the weather that's like that that

that kills me with that one yeah it's tough it's looking i i checked our i think uh kevin roth from roto grinders does a great job with the weather. Yeah. Cause he's like an actual weatherman, you know, not like me who is masquerading as such in my Roto-World days, writing a weather column. But you know, You cash the check on that, you know, per article rate. I was making money and I was just basically like looking up weather reports, just making sure. And then if anything was serious, I would ask him,

and then Chris Allen does a great job, too. He did legitimate weather studies and how it impacts football, so that's good. But, yeah, looking like it could be wet, windy, combo of both, and that's kind of a bad combo, so we'll see. I don't know. I was kind of thinking that Baltimore just might run the piss out of the ball regardless. They want to win, but Tyler Huntley is not exactly a precise thrower.

And then we know that the Steelers want to run too. I mean, I think they ran it, what, 40 times last week with Najee and Jalen Warren. So, yeah, I think that makes a good flop. That's another one that I like. I'd love to get your guys' thoughts on. Jalen Warren, who's basically been – he's taken all the passing stuff away from Najee.

Najee is like just an early down thumper. All the long down and distance stuff, like targets, all of it. It's just been Jalen Warren. Three and a half receptions is like minus 120. Yards is like 23 and a half. Yeah, kind of like New York. He's a yards guy for me. He looks like a bowling ball when he gets the ball.

I know. You know what I mean? Just like shedding everybody. Yeah, it's interesting to me. I'm so burned historically of just like running back, receiving stuff is sometimes so thin. The game script, that's all about game script. I mean, you, you know,

you're toast whenever your team's just leading and you're like, fuck, like we're not going to get this. All right. I got, I got a good one that I've been thinking about here. So DK for negative correlation plays, DK Metcalf's under on his reception, which is going to be like four and a half or five and a half, but over on his yards because he's playing against Arizona. He against two high safety looks, he has like a 15% target share, lower than JSN, lower than Tyler Lockett. I believe it was the Fantasy Points crew or maybe D-Bro,

someone tweeted it out, but it was good info. And then against a single high or cover three, he has like a 25% target share. So again, seeing fewer targets, but the DK Metcalf boom is always there against the bad Arizona secondary. So I don't necessarily want to bet the under on his yard because he's a guy who can literally do nothing all game in that house one but uh again i think that can play to our advantage here negative correlation like you know four for 80 is very much in play and that'll get you probably you know 15 20 to one i bet i want to do the same thing the one i had noted for that section today was mike evans uh he i think he went like 162 in that first game against carolina jc horn is questionable with a toe injury um i

mean his quarterback's questionable too but four for 80 because his uh reception line is four and a half uh 80 is an alt recep receiving yards line four for 80 on draft Kings for Evans pays 12 to one. So I think that's pretty viable too. Love it. Yeah. I've been, I've been backing unders against the Panthers and passing game for a long time. And I don't think I can do it this week. Unfortunately, it's just not, I, you know, Mayfield and the, the bucks just have way too much to play for. Just like, you know, run the clock out, I think.

So we'll see. Yeah. Again, it's going to be a great live betting week based off of, you know, just information that we're finding out in the game or what's going on or like if you just, you know, your subscribers stay in the Discord. Get your takes in, you know what I mean, and get your like flow chart of if and when, you know, takes in, you know what I mean? And get your like flow chart of if, and what,

if and when, you know, all that. And then just sit in front of the TV and just wait for stuff to happen that you want. You know what I mean? Like, that's the only way to do it.

Like you can't, I don't think you're going to put this on paper or something because there's no way you're, you're going to be able to keep all this straight. Not me. It's too much. You got to put it on paper. Like a GRP wins. I got george you know just write it up

write all your bets down right everything write them down on a piece of paper with a pen oh man so good um also we got some christian watson lines popping here mid-show oh look at that you got your notebook um we got some christian watson lines popping mid-show 36 and a half receiving yards and he and he takes off the bat there i mean if he's full go it's probably too it's almost certainly too low his lines are like the high 40s low 50s but um i mean the bears even has been playing awesome i don't know any any thoughts are off the top well he's boomer he's a longest reception guy for me and that's kind of it it The hammy is just put together with Just

I don't know, it just does not strike I don't feel good about him getting through a game We could get a discount on longest reception We did this his first game back The first time he plays because he gets like Two to three looks that are like 20 yards downfield Basically every game And his longest reception line when the first game he came back

Was like 17.5 or 18.5 or something like that. So maybe we get a discount there in his first game back. Could be something to look forward to. Let me see here. All right, chat. I think we're almost done through our comments here. Any Gibbs' longest rush book?

I think they will put it out. Probably just going to be closer. I mean, we're going to have just a ton of bets on Saturday, unfortunately. It's just kind of what it is. They're not releasing much. Andrew Griffin from the UK. Evening, guys. Thanks for all the props throughout the season. I made some money this season for a change.

Good luck to Conor with this division winner bet. Andrew, appreciate that. I will send you a Venmo if it wins. Just thank you for supporting the show. I mean, again, it's not going to win, so Andrew, don't expect anything. But if it does win, we're going to Vegas, baby. It's going to be a good weekend. Connor and Andrew taking Vegas.

Go Panthers. Dude, for real, that's the big thing. I think everything else is doable. The Panthers just need to win already against's the buses yeah that's tough uh um simply yeah uh last one here i think leanne shout out leanne for supporting the show all year um no specific question there she did ask about an incentives parlay but there's not not enough lines up to talk about that, I don't think, and or they're already accounted for. I think the only ones – the issue, too, I have with this, with the incentives,

is that a lot of them in our games are in games that are – like, already need to be won. So, like, players are not focusing on, like, getting the incentives. Like, coaches are not getting – focusing on incentives. They're focusing on, like, winning the game. So, like, they're not like, oh, Dalton schultz needs six receptions to hit his incentive they're like we're gonna win the game like i don't care if dalton schultz gets 500k like we're gonna go out there and win so um yeah like i just think that that kind of shit's you know dead it basically has to be in like with teams that have nothing to play for um players that are not like record

breaking or already know they have to like lower key players players. And then since everyone's already tweeted it out, it'll be scooped up within probably a minute or two. It would have to be like your team is not going to the playoffs, so you're out of it. You have a guy that's going to break some record, like a receiving yards record or rushing yards record. The only thing that you could possibly play for is this, and maybe you might get your edge there.

And it would have to be a good number too. Like he only needs $1.70 or nothing crazy, but you know what I'm saying? And then the line would have to come out at like nine. You know what I mean? Like that's the only way I could ever see those things really working out. Every other way it's just kind of like, yeah, it's just noise. Yeah, I mean what's crazy is that they used to be awesome for like years i mean four or five years we talked about brady

with gronk like gronk was like doing nothing for the end of his career but needed like five more catches or something like that to get like a half a mil bonus literally brady goes out there just throws five receptions like straight to gronk like five plays in a row and hits his bonus and sportsbooks were not like they didn't account for that like there are literally multiple years examples of this happening where it wasn't accounted for so that's so specific of a situation though i mean those guys are friends uh wasn't that in tampa or like where was it yeah so there's that i mean the guy came to tampa to play so i mean you're saying you again you had something that was told there and And then also, too, it wasn't like the line was, you know, too inflated. We're talking about receptions.

You know what I mean? Like it might have been an extra one on his – that year it was probably three and a half most games. Four and a half is not – like how can they really tax you on that? I guess that's why I was saying they can't. Like, I don't know. Again, a very specific situation is all you're looking for. And just to spray the board is kind of crazy.

A couple of tackle things real quick. Again, these are considered because we don't have lines for them yet, but I want to talk about them. Give you the line I think we're going to get. Antoine Winfield in this game that we're talking about with Tampa and Carolina, safety for the Bucs. We know we're getting full out from the Bucs. Safeties versus Carolina have been a target all season.

Like they are, they've produced at a really high rate. They're giving up 15.8 tackles per game against Carolina. The season is like 18% above the average. And we're in Carolina is the best spot in the league for assists. 54.5% of the tackle opportunities in Carolina have been granted an assist that is like by far, it's like 5% higher than anyone else, almost like 12% higher than league average. Tackles in Carolina we want to look for. Xavier McKinney, he's played literally every snap all season long

for the Giants at safety. No reason to think he will not continue. Safety against eagles has been something we've targeted all season we did the same thing with mckinney a couple weeks ago in the spot i think you got like 12 multiple like you can take ladders here on mckinney uh he probably has a nice game if he's like six and a half uh you know lay some juice or even seven and a half plus money. McKinney, I will like here. And then Robert Spillane, linebacker for the Raiders. The Broncos didn't give up a lot of tackle opportunities, even on the season, but 31% of the tackles against Denver come from linebackers this season. That's the most in the league. They're like one of the league leaders in tackles against from the linebacker position, even though they're like near the bottom in actual tackles against.

Even last week with the quarterback change, we had eric kendricks and nick neiman for the chargers had 10 plus tackles against stidham in denver there so spillane probably eight and a half i'll be looking to take the over otherwise they're going to be some spots where they put full game lines on some guys uh when we think we're knocking there's a chance they don't play could be a heavy under week on tackles based off of what happens here in the next like you know 48 hours with uh with tackle props so maybe a heavier than normal under week so those will be the tackles that i'm looking for uh to consider without knowing the line yet this is a connor week remember last year with the vikings i think it was oh man i would love that i was thinking about that yeah yeah

but the issue is that like yeah we haven't really gotten anything. That was such a specific scenario, but we'll see. I mean, you never know. Sometimes they give you some gifts, you know, sometimes there's some last minute news where it's like, Hey, rolling the player guys a half, you know, and then you have all every lineup at prize fix a vivid, by the way, shout out to vivid, you know, they continue to have lines up way past when they should. So, you know,

if you're looking to make some... The easiest way to make money is by doing this. Literally, just follow the information, post, pick off stale lines. It's not going to keep your accounts alive for a long time, but price picks in Vivid will usually be pretty good to you for a while. Shout out Vivid. All right. That wraps

us up. Like I said, you want to stay into some of the live stuff. You want to get in our Discord. The betting subscription is $19.99. Super cheap. Again, gets you access to all that we do. Still betting MMA and NBA. And again, if you're considering us for next year,

perhaps you just tune in to the show every week or even a couple of weeks. You want to see what our offering looks like in season. You get a sense of it here. The playoffs. Come hang out with us for a really, really low 1999 to check us out. So four,

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will hold down the fort here stateside. Are you back in the States next week, or are you still in Mexico? No. Legally, I can't be in Mexico any longer. I'll come back on Sunday. Unfortunately, we're still in mexico no i mean i can't legally i can't be in mexico any longer you know i'll come back on sunday so unfortunately we'll be back in the cold and uh yeah we'll be back at it back in my normal dungeon it's not too bad here it's not too bad here so i appreciate you guys hanging out with us hit the thumbs up and subscribe before you take off for connor and slop i'm ryan we'll see y'all next week. Thanks, everybody.