Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 18 Player Prop Bets! | Top Picks, Predictions & Odds

Episode Date: January 3, 2025

Get ready for Week 18 with our top prop bet picks! Join us as we break down the best NFL prop bets for opening week, analyzing player performances, key matchups, and hidden opportunities to maximize your winnings. Whether you're betting on touchdowns, yardage, or game-changing plays, we've got the insights you need to make the smartest bets. Subscribe now and start the season with a winning edge! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan  Follow John on Twitter 👉🏼    / sloprules  Follow Monotone on Twitter 👉🏼    / monotonefootbal Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

Hello and welcome to Move the Line Prop Drop Show presented by DraftKings Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Newton joined by my friends that are always here, Connor Allen and John Hyslop. We are back with an extra guest, our guy Monotone Football, Monotone Stu, who has been absolutely destroying things for us all season long over 4 for 4. We are back to talk about the best way the most profitable way to bet on nfl football and as you play your props i'm gonna kick it used to first you get the floor what's going on buddy how we doing thanks for joining us yeah thank you guys for the invite obviously been a lot of a lot of talking in the discord this year you know i'm

sure i'll recognize a lot of familiar faces in the chat, but finally got to get my face on here, make sure all you guys actually know who I am. And yeah, been a great season so far. Hopefully we can sneak on here another time in the playoffs as well. Also joining us again after a week hiatus, brought along Montezuma's revenge with him as well, though you wouldn't know he's absolute pro, Connornor allen what's going on live from mexico yeah i i thought we needed a little more diversity for the show so i wanted to you know bring in another country uh if you if you don't record live in another country i feel like you're just like you know it's it's a downgrade to the show you have to right so here in mexico bets from the beach uh you know it's it's we're live got

some bangers going to talk incentives what matters what doesn't matter drafting is now charging too for subscriptions to boost your parlays so i'm going to talk about it all some pretty wild shit's going on already i love it yes there's a new thing so do they still sponsor the show he still sponsors the show but you know sponsor the show, but we build our Millie Parleys on Fandle and Caesars all year. So yeah, there's a new – I think it's New York only. I'm sure they're just testing it or manipulating the tax laws in New York or whatever is going on there but uh you can basically for a $25 max bet uh get boosted odds for your parlays

so yeah you can pay for the odds I'm out yeah yeah yeah seems seems like a tough scene but uh shout out to the sponsor of the show giraffe kings yeah uh good luck uh hope it is a very lucrative uh endeavor for you guys there so yeah lots of good stuff i like they already brought up the incentives we'll definitely get there uh we're gonna continue here live 3 p.m eastern every friday through the super bowl here on the four for four bets youtube channel uh we are here giving out our favorite props for the week and taking your questions if we have time. So jump in the chat.

Let us know what your favorite look for week 18 is. Obviously, it's a week that brings on its own set of challenges in terms of playing time, incentives, all those different things. We're going to try to navigate that here as well. That's the best chance for you to get the price and number that we're getting. Obviously, these move pretty quickly. You can also find Move the Line wherever you listen to podcasts as

well. We also know that a few thousand of you are generous enough to support the show and watch and listen. Less than half of you subscribe to the channel of the podcast. Change that. Hit the thumbs up as a way to apologize and hit the subscribe button as well. Massively, massively appreciate

that. I'm going to give Stu the floor first. We always give it to Connor, but Stu is our guest, even though he's part of the family. Again, absolutely killing it this year. You can find Stu on Twitter at Monotone Football. You can find his stuff on YouTube as well.

He's got his stuff. Again, absolutely crushing. Excited to have him here. Yeah, Stu, the floor is yours. Week 18 18 first play sounds good i'll fire it off in the discord right now i like bijan robinson longest rush over 17 and a half you can already see i'm trying to peel the noon in right here win him over right here with the longest prop because we've been on the same page with a lot of these this season and honestly with the market pricing bijan robinson at almost 100 rushing yards at his base number right now,

I'm very surprised that we're getting such a reasonable price on a longest rush, right? Because his carries right now is 19 and a half plus 100, which means they're essentially implying a five yards per carry, which, I mean, it makes sense. The Panthers rushing defense is very, very bad. But for me, for him to sustain a very good game right here, I would have to think there's going to be an 18-yard rush along the way. I think the thing that's bringing it down is a couple misses

in a couple recent games, which is fair. Obviously, they got off to a fantastic start against Washington last week. They were extremely successful running the ball in the first half. Unfortunately, for whatever reason, whether it's coaching or whatever you want to blame for that one, they only ran the ball like four times in the second half last week. They truly went away from the run. And sure, Drake London was open for a decent amount of that game. But I think it's hard for them to not go back into the film room and think, what would have happened differently if we just stuck with what kind of got us there a little bit because Bijan they weren't really stopping

them whatsoever and I think we come in to a game where I think 20 carries is a pretty good possibility but most importantly one this is a game they need to win right I mean the chances of making the playoffs are not looking great after last week but they are playing at the same time as the Buccaneers which means they won't have like all the information beforehand. They're going to have to go full starters, full everyone's a hundred percent. And if you win this game, then hopefully everything else takes care of business and you can get yourself into the playoffs. So I'm not really worried about a split workload.

And I mean, more importantly than me, the market is needed, right? When a guy said at 99 and a half rush yards, there's clearly not going to be any concern right there, but the Panthers allowed the highest opposing rush rate of any team in the league. They allowed the most rush yards per game. They've been top five in explosive runs allowed all season long. This is a team that not only gets beat by volume, but they get beat by big plays. So if we're going to get Bijan Robinson 20 carries against this defense in a game where he's likely motivated to not only make the playoffs, but also, hey, show those all pro bowl voters, all those guys.

You probably shouldn't be an alternate, right? You probably shouldn't be behind Joe Mixon. Probably a little bit better. Same with his teammate, Jesse Bates. I think both those guys should go out and show out a little bit tonight. So a little bit of extra narrative. I know that's what everyone's looking for this week. I'm sure he's 100 yards away from something.

So that would be nice as well. But I do like longest rush at over 17 and a half draft Kings minus one 20 is going to be the best price as well as like ESPN and three, six, five. Some of those guys have a minus one 10. Warms the cuckolds of my heart to get the longest right up the top there too. And I think actually it's, it's great for a couple of reasons. I think it's even more fail-proof if there happens to be a scenario where they kind of back off a little bit or the volume isn't there, you're fine. You're not trying to push into the 100. You just need them to pop the big one against the team who is running out.

I mean, to start the season, a JV defense, and right now with all the injuries, again, linebackers five and six is where they're at this year with all the injuries they Again, linebackers five and six is where they're at this year with all the injuries they've had. So it's rough there. So, Slap, where are you at on that? Bijan, any love? I like the longest rush.

I don't mind it. I know you like it, so I like it. I do. It's good. Connor from Mexico. I can't translate into Spanish for you, but Bijan Robinson. Si. Do you like him?

Bien. Bien. Si. Yeah. I actually tried to make a Bet365 account in Mexico just to bet this. Apparently, you have to be a citizen. Not a Mexican citizen. Didn't work. I like that look.

I like your logic. Running backs have been just smashing the Panthers for the last month, basically. It wouldn't be surprising to see Bijan rip this on like the first play, to be honest. I think 18 and a half is a little late. I like it. Yeah.

One and done. That's interesting. You have to be an assistant there. Believe me, I tried to get around it. I thought maybe I just wasn't understanding it. I Googled translated the whole page, you know, make sure like I actually, you know, kept looking at the dropdown. I'm like, United States of America is not an option here. Like what's going on here? Like, you know, it was i actually you know kept looking at the drop down like united states of america is not an option here like what's going on here like you know it was

pretty wild yeah yeah keep popping this stuff in the chat we try to get to some of uh your thoughts and some incentive things anything that you're uh thinking about we can you know maybe suss out for you that we think is fishy or obviously it's baked in uh but connor back to you uh first play here for week one yeah we're gonna do with a joint play here for week one Yeah, we're going to do a joint play here For both Noonan and I We're going to go with Jacoby Myers It's like over 62 at MGM 63 at DraftKings, 65 at Caesars

67 at Builder I think all of those are actually still playable So both Aidan O'Connell And Antonio Pierce have mentioned How they want to get Jacoby Myers to 1,000 yards This season He needs 96 yards to get 1oby Myers to a thousand yards this season. He needs 96 yards to get a thousand, which slop.

I don't know. Double check my math. I'm pretty sure 96 is more than 62. Correct. Okay. I just looked. Yeah. That,

that adds up. Good. I mean, yeah. When in doubt, just Google translate. No. So I think that that's good.

And then, I mean, even regardless, like this is kind of a line where I think if the incentives or the milestone didn't matter, like he'd probably be in the high 50s, maybe low 60s anyways. I mean, it's generally been as median as like 61 yards in the season. So I don't think we're getting as much of like the incentive milestone stuff baked in. Whereas the coaching staff who Antonio Pierce is like one of the biggest player coaches in the league, you know, and Aiden O'Connell is like very much again,

like very aware of saying like, I want to get into a thousand yards. So I think this is good. I played over 62 and then I also played, you know, the a hundred plus at plus three, 10 at draft King. I think it's pretty interesting as well. So I don't know. I think both looks are kind of fun. Not too much advanced metric sides.

Like they're probably, he's probably gonna see 10 plus targets in this game. Uh, and again, they want to get them, get them to the yard. So. I mean the coach part, right. I mean, of any of the coaches may be still active. He's like definitely in the Mount Rushmore of like, I'm going to jam it to my guys to get them to their milestones, right? Like he's a former player.

There's definitely no analytics. You don't even have to have it for the matchup in terms of your pick guys that you think are going to go ahead and force that in. I saw Slop shaking your head that you like the 100-plus. Maybe that's more in your alley to get the plus money. Yeah, I don't know. I just don't understand how you could be like, hey, he needs 90-plus yards to get 1,000, and they're trying to get him 1,000

and then be like, let's go over 60, guys. You know what I mean? Come on, Connor. I know you're in Mexico. be like let's go over 60 guys you know what i mean come on connor i know you're in mexico go bro you know what i mean like let's go he's getting a hundred bucks like you know yeah you know what i know it knows it monotone knows it now the entire world knows it let's's get a win, too. It's already in. It's in my mental parlay. It's already in there. Yeah, that's where we really missed you last week, Connor, was the housekeeping for the parlay.

Yeah, that wasn't easy. You know, that's not our strength. You know, we're here just to fire off the bats. Yeah, we talk. Someone else puts it in. Yeah, that's normally how it goes. So were you guys struggling? I listened to the first ten minutes of the show, listening, you guys berate me for taking a vacation midseason.

And then I stopped listening. And it was pretty funny. I was laughing. And then I was like, all right, this is good enough. I was like, I don't need to know the bets. I got them in the Discord or whatever. It's fine. But you guys couldn't build the parlay?

Was that like? Which wasn't easy. I mean, we did build the parlay. Yeah, we did a ton. We're much older did it. Yeah, we did it. We're much older than you. Yeah. Technology is tough, I know. It's a two-factor authentication stuff.

It's like fingerprints. I can't even get in one. And you're going to text me a code. I got to find a text message. Yeah. What? Just trying to get in my gambling account. Yeah. Put's texting what? Just trying to get in my gambling account. Yeah.

I put the password in. We also wanted some stuff that was on one and not on the other. And that complicated things. Right. So, you know, we got there. We landed the plane in terms of getting the bet off. I think we went like three of seven slots. Yeah, we pretty much won, dude.

I think it was the closest we've ever gotten. We were dancing. We were like four things away from being filthy rich. We wouldn't have had the show today. It would have been you and Monty. We would have been in Mexico knocking on your door, dude. What's up, buddy? All right, Slop.

First banger for 18 here for you. What do you got, buddy? Yeah, so I don't know what you guys are doing, but I'm not waiting until Sunday. I'm going Saturday, Saturday night too. Pat Friermuth, tight end. Let's go five-plus receptions at Seedgers. It's plus 220.

All right, that's ridiculous. If you want to go six-plus, that's like 470. I'm pretty sure. Yes, 470, seven-plus, 950 on. Yes, 470. 7 plus, 950. It's all deadly, all right? I did 3.5 at BetMGM this morning because it was plus 105, and everyone else had like minus 115, so I went ahead and took it. But they only took 92 cents from me,

so now I'm going to have to get loose and go to Caesars. That's not a dig at BetMGM. I get it. I get it. I get it. But my grandfather and his friends did not storm the beaches of Normandy and kill a bunch of French people, so we have to go through this shit. You know what I'm saying? We should be able to bet whatever we want to bet.

That's not what this is about. This is about Pat Friermuth and the fact that he's going to catch a bunch of balls. The Bengals can't cover tight ends, all right? The thing is, they're going to play from ahead, so the Steelers are going to have to throw the ball. On the season, no team in the NFL has given up more receptions to the tight end position than the Bengals. Nobody. Like, zero teams.

All right? Pat Friermuth just happens to play tight end. They already played once this season. Guy caught six balls. He could have caught way more than that if they'd stopped throwing to him. This is going to be a bloodbath. Take it all the way up. All the way up. Go to Caesars, though, because everybody else a bloodbath. Take it all the way up, all the way up.

Go to Caesars, though, because everybody else is a little light, like kind of, like really light. It's crazy that Caesars has the best price, to be honest with you. Shout out to D-Day and all that have served for our ability to get down on plus money, Pat Fryer. That's – love it. Yeah. I mean, I don't know. Thanks, guys.

I will say, though, from a prop perspective, I do like the spot a lot because when you look at that first matchup and how it turned out, the tight ends in that game combined for 99 receiving yards. The running backs combined for an additional 145 receiving yards. Everything was over the middle against them. Like literally, they were just daring Russ to check the ball down. And if you've watched Russ any time over the last three, four years, you know the guy loves to check the ball down.

Like a little four-yard pass to his tight end right in front of him is probably his favorite play in the playbook. So the fact that you're getting over plus 200 on five receptions is pretty crazy as someone that doesn't particularly like to bet the Steelers but I think that's a good spot for our booth yeah I like it so what do you so you got the three and a half a plus money three and a half what's even money I think now it's just you got to go four plus minimum or I'm sorry five plus that's plus 220 at Caesars as we speak you want to do six plus like a man, I'm not going to blame you.

You know what I mean? It's Saturday night. Why not? You've done dumber things, I'm sure, with money. Definitely with money, especially on a Saturday night. Yeah. Okay. I'll get down on that.

I like it. I just can't believe DJ got a shout-out here in the year 2025. It's my birthday,, shout out to me Not great Oh beautiful, what D-Day or Saturday? D-Day I was like wow, nice work bro Yeah, I'm pretty excited about it every year

Alright I'm going to stay on a Saturday night I got two, I got a Saturday night because, again, I got two. I got a Saturday night and I got a Sunday night. I don't know. Slop probably hasn't even looked at Sunday night yet. So we're going to stay in the same mix. I love anything Joe Burrow does.

I just can't. I sew myself, bathe myself in Joe Burrow. I'm going over longest rush, six and a half yards. Whoa. We're not doing any passing yards. We're going, just keeping it running here. There were multiple times in the game against the Broncos the other night during the telecast.

They talked about the conversation that they had with Burrow in the production meeting. And he said he's never felt this good late in the season. And he feels really good about how well he feels with his legs. He's had a lot of lower leg injuries the last handful of years, and he's wanting to take advantage of it. And he did against Denver, did against Cleveland the week before, a couple teams that get a good amount of pressure. He's got six rushing attempts for 44 yards in the past two weeks, longest of 16 and 19 in those games. And now we've got a Steelers team, top five man rate,

which is kind of like that box to be checked when we're looking for quarterback rushing props. They get a ton of pressure, so they're going to be able to collapse the pocket here. We know we're not going to have designed runs for Burrow here, so we're going to have him having to scramble. And I think he's obviously shown a willingness to do so here. So I think he can play over 8.5 rushing yards as well. Again, Fandle's the best number there. But 6.5, again, we just take the one and done.

We don't have to mess around with any, like, potential scoring situations here where the scorekeeper says that's a rushing attempt, not a sack, and then you lose, you know, negative three rushing yards. Just give me one rush for at least seven yards for Joe Burrow in this game. Again, a game he needs. He's going to get pressured. You just need one and something. Slop,

Saturday night. Burrow, what do you think? Yeah, I'm doing it. That's all I need. On the tone, we've been aligned. This was a little off the board. Any thoughts on the breakdown, the handicap there on Burrow and Lugg's rush? No, I'm a big fan of all things pro right now, and a must-win game with how good he's looked this year.

I do like the handicap, the ongoing longest rush, as opposed to total rush yards. I'm not sure how many that does save you, but that does tend to be my thought process when you're going on a guy that is fully dependent on scrambles, not designed runs, right? There's going to be no built-in volume, so you don't really need – you're looking for one big run anyway if you're going to cash any of his props. And obviously, most likely going to happen on, like you said, a pressure

where he's out the pocket and forced to use his legs. And I did not hear the tidbit about feeling the best he has, but no surprise. I mean, he's been running through injuries over these last couple years, so definitely good to hear that he's fully healthy. I think that's a very sneaky look, Not one I expected to hear on the show, but definitely one I'll be tailing. Yeah, I think it's going to be a fun one. Connor, any thoughts, any takeaways? No, not too much to add. I think it's a good look. Not definitely, it was not one that I was like, you know, looking at, not on my radar. So it's kind of fun.

It's a new one to consider here. I like it. Yeah. I heard him on the telecast, instantly made the note, looked back a little bit and, you know, he he's i think he's a good athlete and you know willing runner we've seen a pop-up the last couple weeks i think that we're also in the range too like we've talked about all the time we'll talk about it more is like as these become must-win games like these guys will just do anything and that to win and that involves quarterbacks running more so you know bro is not a guy that normally has propensity to scramble, like, significantly more, but, like, he does. Like, he can move. You know, he's, like, in the range where he's not completely immobile

or anything. So I think that he qualifies as a guy who's much more likely to just randomly take a random scramble instead of, like, you know, forcing one in or something like that. Yeah. Like I said, six for 44 the last couple games. He's shown at least currently a willingness and is pretty healthy. All right, Stu, back to you, number two.

Sounds good. I'm also going to go to the biggest game of the week right here. I'm going to do Jared Goff over 279.5 passing yards at minus 114 on FanDui. He ended right exactly at 280 in their earlier matchup at the beginning of the season on a very efficient 22 for 25 game. A couple things here. One, I don't know about you guys. I'm interested to hear after this. I do kind of lean towards the Vikings as the side in this game. I know a lot of people don't really feel comfortable going to Sam Darnall to climb a

mountain like this, but I think a lot of the handicap does have to do with the defense on the other side of the ball and all the hits that the Lions have taken in the second half of the season. Obviously, David Montgomery went out. That's a big one on offense. But losing McNeil, Davis, these injuries that have affected them all season long, Enzelone, a linebacker, that's really what I think is going to hurt them the most right here because I don't trust this team to go toe-to-toe with anybody and be able to stop you.

It feels like the Lions of last year a little bit more where it's last team to touch the ball wins. And I think seeing a 49ers team do what they did to that defense last week with honestly nothing to play for. I mean, they were testing out a rookie. You want to see how Ricky P looked out there. Cashed a lot of long shot tickets for people, shout out to him. But in reality, that was an exhibition game for them. And the Lions were playing like something was on the line for whatever reason. And sure, you can say maybe they didn't take it

seriously as they will today, but there's been no indication that the Lions can really stop a high powered offense all year long. I think this is setting up for a fantastic game script. And when you look at it, Vikings have allowed the second fewest rush yards all year long. They're a great defense. For me, I love Jameer Gibbs. I'm a big fan of Jameer Gibbs. He's a fantastic player. But when you get a guy that's in a split backfield with a guy like David Montgomery,

you benefit a lot from that, right? A guy that is one of the hardest people to bring down in the league, right? Known for being the tougher style of runner, softens the defense up for you a little bit on early downs so that you can break off all those 30-yard runs that everyone knows you for. I think it's going to be a little bit easier, especially with the defensive mastermind like Brian Flores, to key in a little bit more, right? To slow Jameer Gibbs down a little bit more, to give him a bit of a tougher time. I think you tend to naturally lose a little bit of efficiency

when your volume goes up that much. And I think we might see a little bit more Jameer Gibbs in the passing game, used as an extension of the running game, rather than just the traditional carries up the middle we're used to with a guy like David Montgomery, right? I wouldn't want to replicate his usage profile with a guy like Jameer Gibbs. They're different kind of players and you want to use them to their strength.

So I think the advantage of the run game not being the usual dependable 25 carries for 150 between these two guys and having Flores be able to key in on Gibbs, I think that's just going to encourage even more passing in this one. And it's one of those games where I love Amon Ross St. Brown. Okay, I go over Jameson Willen. Okay, you can make a really good argument for him as well with his kind of creative usage in the second half. Laporta finally looking a little bit more like the guy you expected. Even fucking Tim Patrick's been involved, right? For whatever reason. I think even Kalief Raymond might be sneaking back an underrated special team or slot guy as well. I just think there's plenty of weapons Goff can go to right here.

He's been cruising over this number recently. The recent form is not anything to worry about. I think this is going to be a high-scoring game. I don't trust Detroit's defense to stop anyone, and I think that's going to play into a game script where both quarterbacks have to pass a lot. So when I'm looking across the board and I see a lot of overs I like on offense, I'm just going to bring it back to the quarterback. I think Jared Goff has a really good game here. Recent game log is kind of bonkers on Goff. Sloth, the answer that you're looking for, Goff, 300 plus, plus 145 on DraftKings is the best number because they know you're not laying minus 115 to get to 280, right? Yeah, no, I totally stopped listening when he said over.

I was like, all right, yeah, I'm in. So, yeah, we're good there. Golf 325 is probably where I'd end up on something like that just because I think this game is going to be absolutely insane. I mean, not to force out on my next pick, but, yeah, you know what I mean? You kind of got to get loose. And, yeah, that's one way to do it. Okay, I do it. Okay.

I like it. Our guy, Prop Bomb, was looking at completions 23 and a half. It got moved up. It was juicy. It's 24 and a half. When I was looking at that to do the receptions or the completion number, I'm like, man, yards might just be the way. So I like the look here from Stu Conner.

Any additional thoughts on Goff? In the dome. No cold weather Goff. Juice. Juice now. Yeah, I know. No cold weather Goff, which he kind of played pretty well anyways. But we said it wasn't that cold.

To be clear, we were like, it's not like – it was not real cold. It was just kind of cold. His completions or attempts, whatever whatever it was did not hit that day by one so we were right indoor cat he isn't okay yeah 100 no i like this i like the over though i think i think it makes sense um yeah it's it's something i've been trying to figure out how to get exposure to as well it just seems like a lot of the receivers were priced up a little bit um and golf is priced up a little bit but it just is priced up a little bit, but it just might be too low. You know, I think that's – it's probably still not high, if that makes sense.

We've got a total in the mid-50s, upper 50s. The highest total – I mean, what? When was the last time we saw a total like 58, 57? It's been a minute for sure, especially in the last year or two. Yeah. Yeah, today's economy – Yeah, the gift stuff I like too. Yeah.

I know. It's been tough. I will say as a defensive guy, what do you think about pace coming back and how he impacts the middle of that Minnesota defense and how that hurts Gibbs? Because I was thinking Gibbs receiving as well, but at 30 at such a premium number when they actually have their linebacker quarterback, that's kind of what scared me off a little bit.

So they don't really use – they've been a single linebacker team for's kind of what scared me off a little bit so they don't really use uh they've been a single linebacker team for a lot of the year so even anytime cashman was healthy which he is and and pace is healthy you're seeing pace play 30 35 of the snaps uh which sucks and pace is awesome against the run kind of a liability against the pass so what they really do in those scenarios is they use metellus as basically a the second linebacker in snaps where they need to because they'll use bynum and harris or harrison smith in the back half is your traditional safeties and metellus just floats whether that's linebacker in the slot all those different things so yeah i don't think

pace is going to make that much of a difference. If anything, he actually maybe helps because he just wants to get after the ball. Like he wants to rush the passer. He wants to eat the run. So Gibbs is a great spot. I mean, I'm so – touched on it last week. The running back receiving things are so – like if Brees Hall couldn't hit last week in that setup, if Spears couldn't hit last week in that setup,

it just felt so – they're just so hard. So Gibbs, maybe a dude that can break it, but I don't know. They're tough, man. I think I'm at the point where we just should never bet a running back receiving prop over ever.

Like, I don't know why every time that I bet it and all the logic makes sense. It just always loses. I don't know how, like you could tell me it's the perfect match of all this stuff. It's just like, I don't know. I'm so bad at it.

I look back at all my data on it and I'm just like, I'm a lifetime loser on running back receiving overs. So I just quit. I quit them. I touched on it on the show last week and Slop, we talked about it a little bit too. The Brees haul, I had already bet it and then Monotone played it and I love that play. It makes

so much sense. And he's like, air balls. Like nothing. Game script wasn't just as monotone hit handicap too, right? That game got out of whack. Buffalo's a team that just gives it up a ton. We've seen just consistent usage for Breesall and then nothing. So, yeah, just it's wonky. But, again, Gibbs is a dude where, like, just take an alt number, right? Don't mess with the receptions, right?

Because the reception line is like four and a half. Just take an alt, 40 don't mess with the receptions right because the reception line is like four and a half just take an alt 40 plus 50 plus hopes you know hope your house is one and you're you're cooking with gas so you can sell me on that uh all right uh connor where you at back to you number two yeah a one that i know slop is gonna hate probably especially here actually um so i'm gonna go jordan love under 223 and a half passing yards. I know, yeah. It's kind of different. But I think there's a real chance Packers rest their starters here

at some point in the game. As early as after a few drives. They did it previously in second half in a similar situation where they were kind of locked in the playoffs. But maybe they were going to change seeds. And that's the situation here. I mean, were to win they were they're the i think six seed if they lose they're probably the seventh seed if washington wins too so again they could still be the sixth seed even if washington somehow loses um so there's definitely potential there uh

and so yeah like i think that's an option right like they could rest their starters which 223 and a half is very possible but not super likely i'd say and the other out for us here is like since the buy they've been so run heavy jordan loved 206 or fewer passing yards in four or seven games like the bears even has been bad but their run evens have been worse uh just like just so bad uh and so i think that the packers are going to roll out with a lot of brooks a lot of emmanuel wilson maybe some josh jacobs who already said that he he already said I don't expect to get a full workload, which in my mind kind of indicates, too, that like the starters in general are probably not going to get a full workload overall. So I would kind of be surprised to see a pretty pass-heavy approach here. Now, obviously, again, we could get burned by efficiency, but I was just kind of surprised to see a line over 200 or a line at all for a team that, I mean, Sunday morning we could get a report saying like, oh, they're only going to play a half.

And I wouldn't be surprised at all. Monson, anything to add to that? Any thoughts? Yeah, I mean, I like, once again, with either little to prove or nothing to prove, I think you kind of have to do a little bit of guesswork on who you think gains the benefit the most. And when I look at the spectrum of young players on the Packers, the guys that I'd want to see more touches from that will actually be getting a couple playoff touches are guys like Emmanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks, who are both running backs, right? And they've already been involved this year. Both scored you a touchdown.

And if you're in the four for four discord, they might've even hit a last touchdown for you last time they came out. So I don't see why we wouldn't be, it's just because it's not Josh Jacobs. I don't see why they wouldn't be equally committed to the ground game with these backups. You know, maybe a Bo Melton could be a a guy I guess they'd want to see more, but they got a good run of him last year as well. It's not like they've got a lot of young talent they need to explore outside of the running back room if they are kind of comfortably winning this game. So that's kind of my take. That's one of the things I'd be looking for is both of those guys touchdown, whether a Brooks or a Wilson or a last touchdown once again um i really wouldn't

have any interest in the passing game for the packers so i do like the under there yeah i like the call out so you need multiple outs for sure slop i know your thoughts here but i'm guessing you wouldn't take the over on jordan no um love didn't even get that he even get 200 last week against the vikings and a pretty decent like matchup for that so I don't know uh Connor actually won me a prize pick slip maybe two years ago it could have been three years a while ago but it was the Vikings remember when yep right they priced them like they were playing the whole game and he had already tweeted out that there's no chance they were playing the whole game this feels a lot like that.

Yeah, if there was an opportunity to play receiver-unders and passing-unders correlated, I would definitely be jamming that. I don't think I've seen any receiving-unders for the Packers guys. It's only been the passing-under. And there was a Jacobs prop. Again, unfortunately, I was not in America to try and jam some of that at some stale lines. But there was a Jacobs probably like 65, I think, at one point. I mean, again, I think he probably sees maybe seven, eight carries in this spot. So he's probably going under.

And the receivers, like, they have some younger guys that they could fill in. But, yeah, maybe I'd consider that, too. So, yeah, if any of those numbers pop up, which I think they will. I mean, like, at this point, like, we're probably going to get him. If we're getting a love at, like, I don't, 80 percent, 70 percent of whatever we think he is. Then we'll probably get some receiving numbers, too. So definitely something to look out for. Yep. All right, Slob, back to you. Your second prop. I'm going to go Sam Darnold, but I'll do 325. It looks like at Caesars right now it's plus 260.

It's plus 265 at DraftKings, but they charge people to boost. I'm not into that, so we'll go Caesars, and I'll take a five-cent hit there. Here's the thing, though. I don't know if you watched the Lions play last week. Brock Purdy went 377 on them, okay? That was bad. That was very telling, like something's wrong. I like what Stu said. The Lions gonna score all over Minnesota so we should get a nice back and forth here if

that happens we just saw Darnold go 377 last week that's the same number that Purdy went so it's kind of weird but yeah he went 377 just last week so he can do it I mean I was looking at his touchdowns too like three plus is not crazy it's almost plus uh two on jumps two to one but he's done that in three uh three of the last four weeks i mean through five in one week so this guy's kind of on fire right now and the idea that we're gonna get him 325 at plus 260 against the team who've given who's given up a million passing yards this season, like a million, maybe more. It just feels too easy. Yeah, I kind of love it.

I mean, fireworks in that game are hard to not think it's coming from both sides, how these teams – again, I know the Vikings have a little bit more teeth defensively, but still the way this Detroit offense is cooking here. Connor, any thoughts on D darnell also breaking the 300 barrier no i think that the more that we talk about this game the more i think we should just like build an entire parlay out of just this game you know like as many different alts in this game as possible and variations and how we like to play it because i mean darnell is going to cook i think that there's actually some probably some some strategic ways to play this with like,

without like maybe no Gibbs rushing, but like, you know, receiving passing stuff for the lions, passing stuff for the, for the Vikings. I don't know. I'm interested though. I like it. The more you guys talk about it, the more, the more interested I am. Yeah. Yes. He's T-Mac in the chat had golf Darn darnold 300 each at 375 i think that's a good way to approach it just at a baseline level and i mean like you were saying about the running backs these are two running backs that arguably i like in the receiving game more than i like on the

ground right gibbs and jones are two of the best pass catching backs in the league so i was looking at darnold as well for whatever reason the mental block at like 280 is a little tougher when you're looking at sam darnold i know i was just making fun of people saying shit like that earlier but it's still there you know it's still hard to get by sometimes 325 still 325 350 let's go see if my mental block i never met a player over 79 you know no skill players over 79 80s is just way too high you know 70s normal 279 same thing it applies at every at every decimal you know or every every one so 350 plus uh plus 550 on draft kings um that's in play i think it looks really better than everything else price wise i think it's going to be stupid like one of of those, like it's just going to be stupid.

Because both teams can move the ball through the air, and neither team can really stop another elite passing off it. So, like, it just – it could just keep going. I'm going to stay there because my next prop is Justin Jefferson over six and a half receptions. It's minus 118 on FanDuel, pretty much minus 120, 125 everywhere you go. All the reasons that Slob just said. There's just no scenario where this game matters so much that the Vikings are going to go into it

and not absolutely feed Justin Jefferson. And Lions have faced the highest rate of targets to wide receiver ones in the league this season, 9.3 per game. We got three straight games of Jefferson having at least 11 targets. He's topped this number in five straight games. Passed three meetings against the Lions. He has 30 receptions. So, again, we just need to have him do his average here.

We get 10 and we're cooking. So, again, we just need to have him do his average here. We get 10 and we're cooking. So, again, you can take alts. I know Slop will sell us on some alts, you know, eight plus, all that stuff. I'm going to cash the easy one. You know, probably a second or third quarter line on Jefferson getting seven balls here. Absolutely love it. Leads the team in target.

Right against Mann, which we know Detroit leads the league in. All those different things. So, Justin Jefferson over six and a half receptions again, feels chalky feels too easy, but it should be at least seven and a half and making me pay a little bit of a little bit of a price for it there. Stu, any thoughts on J Jeff? Yeah, well, I'm, I'm glad I was going to bet that you were going to have Jordan Addison longest reception. So I'm glad I didn't say anything beforehand, um, because I was looking close to that earlier in the week but then honestly i kind of came around to jefferson as well in a game of this magnitude the one thing is just felt like this year's been the first year

in a while where it felt like the game plan isn't just a hundred percent give justin jefferson like a thousand percent target share like it's one where the quarterback's like looking at the field not at one guy which has been a little bit interesting I think if you're a Jefferson fantasy owner or better a little bit frustrating but I think these are the moments this time of year is when you start to really lock in on the best player on the field right and I think Justin Jefferson has a pretty good argument that he does serve that purpose and in a game that we're all talking about how much offense we see with one of the highest totals we've seen in a minute like i don't see how justin jefferson kind of fails in this one i think you know he is one of the highest built-in floors of any player in the

league and this should really be an environment for a ceiling matchup so nothing bad to say about justin jefferson should be another fantastic game for him. Yeah, 14, 13, 11 targets the last three weeks. Connor, six and a half receptions feels like the 79 and a half corollary to receiving yards. Are we on the threshold? Six and a half, I'm interested in seven and a half way too high. So, you know, that's the line. That's fair.

That's fair. Slav, how many would you need to add here and like we're gonna ladder this out so we just need to go i thought that was a first half line when you said it and then now i looked and it's not but i think he i think he can go double digit catches i'm dead serious like i don't think that's that crazy i mean it's like everything you said this isn't a game where it's like hey let's get everybody involved it's it's like everything you said. This isn't a game where it's like, hey, let's get everybody involved. It's force feed our studs. You know what I mean?

And he is a stud. I just watched his NFL football life, Origins one. It was awesome. So you should check that out on NFL. So it might be a sign. I mean, he was filthy all the way through high school. We go all the way back then. In fact, he was disgusting in Pop Warner.

Those were great highlights. Check it all the way back then. In fact, he was disgusting in Pop Warner. Those are great highlights. Check it out. Educate yourselves. Really slop out here grinding the film watching Pop Warner Ball for us. History Channel and NFL Network old NFL films. That's all slop watching. Got to lock in. Two screens.

D-Day. Got to know what happened. Love it. Absolutely love it. Yeah, I think it's a great spot. You just can't get back on the plane and be like, yeah, we only gave Justin Jefferson eight targets. Like, you just can't. 100%.

You know, so. His 420 for 10 receptions. Ah, it's that flip. My bad. Near that 375. That's good. He could catch 10 balls. Are you out on flip now

after their restricting withdrawal? I never was a flip guy. Never was. Something seemed off. I mean, the app, it looks like it was designed for either a 14-year-old or your grandmother who can't see, who has everything on mega size on her phone. The whole system, you have to deposit real money for Fliff coins.

When I started gambling, when I was about 13 years old on something called CSGO skins, if anyone's familiar, a video game called CS go, you can buy skins and the debt on the e-sports online. It's a huge scandal about 2018, 2017 shut all these websites down. They're like, Oh, they're just letting kids gamble. And they're just disguising. This is the exact thing,

by the way. So now they're, you know, cutting the deposits, all that stuff, only five grand a month out. Good luck. Get your flip coins out as soon as possible. Fellas. I don't that's gonna last for yeah 5k per month so if you got i mean that

that could take you a long time if you've been i'm kidding you can rip their lines because they're way off of everybody so like if you're a plus ev guy you probably built up quite the bankroll so the fact that you can only get 5k a month dude you're not it's yeah that's bad so good luck with that but yeah i don't know i don't i don't really have a problem with letting kids gamble that's not really where i came from i don't i just don't like the idea of um having to buy flip coins to bet like come on guys like i get that you're finding a loophole the sweet steaks hats off for that i'm just out yeah we got uh yolt chef he's saying csgo is my gateway drug it sounds like you're in the same boat still yeah man you know

you know it's obviously a good thing to be bending on esports at 13 it worked out pretty well for me i'm not sure anyone else the only thing is i wish i still had that esports knowledge now i could be making a shit ton of money on it back then i had no clue. There's no prize picks with CSGO props or anything like that. So, you know, missed opportunity. But shout out to all the esports guys grinding out there. Yeah, I mean, it is up to the parents. I think, you know, teaching kids how to gamble at a young age, you know, provides math skills. Having people think through the lens of probabilities and ranges of outcome,

I think would help serve them very well in life. A hundred percent. Every aspect is fine. Yeah. So again, parents don't want to do the hard work. So we have to put these laws and restrictions in place. We wait till you're older till you're out on your own and you're outside of your parents' scope and then figure it out.

No, I want you bending while you're under my roof that we could figure it out exactly families that gamble together stay together that's a fact well yeah it's so all these like streamers that like kids watch are like gambling a ton now so like working a lot of gambling so like like all my my little cousins are like 15 14 years old and they're like talking to me about like steak and Plinko ball. And like, you know, all this like, like real gambling shit. Like, this is like, you know, they're basically just playing blackjack and this is great.

So if you love this quote, one of them told me, he's like, cause they know that I do like gambling stuff. Like, you know, he was giving me advice. He's like, here's an advice, only deposit never withdraw. What do you mean? And he's like, he's like, you know, I just deposit. I never withdraw. And I'm like, what do you mean? And he's like, you know, I just deposit. I never withdraw. And I'm like, what kind of advice is that? No breaks. This is my 15-year-old cousin.

I'm like, oh, boy. I'm like, we're in trouble. Don't get in the car with that kid. Yeah. Yeah. I think I mentioned this. I know I mentioned it to Connor a couple weeks ago. You know, we're big Celtics fans in this house.

My son is a, you know, a couple weeks ago. We're big Celtics fans in this house. My son is a hoop head. Celt's game's on, and he tells me, oh, I have Derek White under X point rebounds and assists and something else. And I'm like, excuse me? He's 16. I'm like, what are you talking about? You have Derek White under points, rebounds, and assists.

Oh, and then he had Halliburton under 11.5 assists or something like that So I was like What? And he's like, no, I just, I looked at it I saw it was on prize picks, I don't actually have it But like, theoretically in my mind, like that's what I would have played tonight I was a little terrified

But a little excited, first of all, Connor's super proud. He's banging two unders. Unders only. Incredible. He's got it. His account is not noon and sun. Yeah, so,

you know, those are tough sweats, buddy, but then, you know, we've had a lot of subsequent conversations since, and I feel like, hey,

we're, you know, see what he's already asked me. He's like, hey, if the Super Bowl again last year, you wanted to build a parlay i let him sweat on parlay told him he can keep the winnings we're probably going to go back to the well he's like i can bet the super bowl again like yeah we'll talk about it um he was really on brandon iuke last year where no one else wanted

brandon iuk that didn't work out really well for him so we'll see what he does this year but um you know again that's good because in the house we can actually have those conversations then when he starts to be a bozo maybe goes away to school or whatever happens, he already knows he's already got a little bit of education. You just get into school, you go away, and your boys are just banging pick-em slips, and you have no idea your dad hasn't talked to you about it. Well, kind of show a lot of luck, right? Teach your kids how to gamble.

Well, that's how they're going to learn is they're headed right for the other way of learning how to gamble. And that's literally losing all the time always and having to pay bookies and picking up extra shifts, bartending, just so you could pay the bookie that's literally at the bar right there in front of you. Like, hey, buddy, a couple more hours. I'll get you all squared up. Yeah, so, so i mean there's a couple ways to learn yeah i did that that's how i learned a couple ways to learn and i prefer the other one like the parents are talking to him about it an option so i don't know get it on the uh get on the ballot uh you know run under that premise and we'll find a way to vote for you. That's exactly how you end up pregnant.

That's what Richard just said. Oh, I got pregnant. Way to read the room, Richard. Definitely something to read. All right. What do we want to build? We want to build FanDuel, Siege of Conner. Well, Conner, you can't build anything. Useless son of a gun.

I'll build it. It looks like it lets me Well, Conner, you can't build anything. Useless son of a bitch. I'll build it. It looks like it lets me log in, but I just can't place it. So I'll just build it. That way I can make sure we're headed in the right direction and just collect all of your guys' thoughts and build a new parlay. I'll put together some of what we already played collectively, but I think we should just start with this behemoth of a game, you know, right up top with the Vikings. I'm okay with just with just building a mega vikings lions thing too if you want just keep it all in there i don't know whatever i feel like we have other good options too so uh hold on my

seat is not working so um um do you want to you do you guys want to touch on any other like incentives you like or no do you want to keep those close to the chest yeah i mean stew do you want to you do you guys want to touch on any other like incentives you like or no do you want to keep those close to the chest yeah i mean stew do you have any incentive thoughts overall or is there anything specifically you want to touch on because i know it's a you know obviously a popular topic this week um you know any way i mean my general thought someone asked about courtland sudden earlier um and and he's a good example of someone I'm not super interested in, because above all else, the Broncos

are fighting for a playoff spot. They have to win the game, they have to come out with their A game plan, because if not, you're going to be sitting at home next week, and I think that's the ultimate incentive. Same with the Mike Evans thing, right? The playbook is not going to be Mike Evans, get him the ball as much as possible this week. It's going to be let's win this fucking

game so we can go to the playoffs, right? And I think it's kind of as simple as that. When you see these threads being reposted by DraftKings Sportsbook official Twitter account, like you don't have any golden information, right? I mean, this has all been seen millions of times over the course of the week. So my thing would just be if something looks too good to be true, it probably is. I would be very careful betting these incentive stuff that you're seeing across the Internet from people that are trying to wrap it up and make it seem like this is a gift that nobody else is caught on to. The whole world's paying attention right now. So I think you've got to be pretty careful if you're betting this kind of stuff. I think easily, but, but not because of the incentive thing. You know what I mean?

But like you look at Evan's line, it's like came out at a hundred. They know what time it is. You know what I mean? Like you got Baker Mayfield talking about it. And the thing is, if you watch those two play, that's the way Tampa can win a game. You know what I mean? It's find him.

You got an opponent on the other side of that who's just – they don't care. Like half of them are going to Cabo literally from the Tampa airport. So they're ready to go. No one's playing for the Saints. Look on offense. None of them are. Like Carr's out. Kamara's not going to play.

None of these guys are playing. So, I mean, dude, I would take Evans though. I bet you that happens but again it's not really the incentive you're good you're just paying a higher price because of the incentive now because his line is gonna be a buck what yeah buck four on the sketch crazy uh what's his line go ahead okay so let's run through it what's his line without the incentive i'd say in the 70s 78 75 yeah right at your threshold probably right at 79 and a half i don't think it's not 98 and a half like that this keeps going up i'm gonna take an under i mean i'm i'm 100 taking under i mean this is he can get this regularly i fully believe

it but i i just don't think the incentive matters in this instance that much. Like, I don't know. Like the only thing that matters is, is like late in the game. If he's at 60 or 70 yards, they're up 20 points. They're going to throw it to him three times to get 85 yards. That leaves you like, again, we're getting to the point where 105, it's 105 at builder. It's a 20 yard gap. You can get 90, you can get a hundred. Like, and, and as soon as that happens, he's getting yanked.

Like the whole starters are getting benched because they don't need it anymore. Again, if the game's over. The only risk is that he gets it naturally because the Saints keep up somehow or, like, you know, he's just, like, absolutely shitting on them, which is a very much possibility. I just don't think you get the added edge, which is, like, other incentives where, like, oh, they're just going to throw him 20 times until he gets to, like, Jacoby. Like, 100 yards is a lot of yards and more than 60. So, like, they're going to just going to throw him 20 times until he gets to, like, Jacoby, like, 100 yards is a lot of yards and more than 60. So, like, they're going to keep throwing to him the entire time. So, I don't know. You're getting less value because of the incentive.

Like, that's the thing. Right, way less value. You're literally getting less value. Like, I think he's getting there, but I think the incentive hurts you, like, bad, actually. Yeah. And then with Sutton, I mean, Denver's trying to win I mean there's there's a way to do it they've been using mims quite a bit like a lot on those long balls so Kansas City

I mean do they profile as a tight end team yeah but at the same time they're resting their key guys so how you know what I mean like what are they now you know do you just force beat Sutton which I don't know I don't I mean we're not sure are they now? You know, do you just force-beat Sutton, which I don't know. I mean, we're not sure about that. But even with him, 80-plus is like – I think it's plus 125 at DraftKings. So, whoever has plus 105, that's a bad number. But plus 125 for 80-plus doesn't make it a great play. That's a normal – I mean, you're actually paying a premium on that too.

Courtland Sutton, most weeks, 80-plus plus 125. Yikes. Like that's not great. Stu already jammed in the Mims play too, 32.5 for subscribers. So he's in on the Mims side of it too. Yeah, Mims is where it's at. Yeah, don't need that. Yeah.

Chris Carlton, go for it. No, I was just going to agree with what he's saying and i was gonna say probably what you're about to say which is chris carlton like pointed out in the chat the thing that nobody ever talks about but half the time they just agree shake hands whatever before the game like we're gonna pay you out like one that's being talked about that we actually don't have any public info is cooper rush right he's if he plays every snap i think he can get himself an extra 250K. But hey, this team just traded a fourth round pick for Trey Lance. So there's a very good chance that there are a lot of bettors in market thinking they're betting Cooper Rush this week that might

be getting a last minute Trey Lance, right? Or halfway through Trey Lance, something like that. So it's one of those things that when you over rely on these pieces of information where you don't even have the full story, right, where you're just kind of guessing. That's that's a that's a place we really don't want to be as sports bettors in general. And, yeah, I really think a lot of these like Slob just said, it's working against you now. Like the fact that this is so known, the fact that these threads have millions of views, they're actively working against you. And I think that's why we're all more likely to be on Mike Evans under 107 receiving yards than over anything else. But if you're playing overs like a spot like prize picks that'll let you play the alt line on 80, what I was doing is you can still build three

picks that will pay out two times or 1.25 X. If you go to a three with the Evans 80 leg, it's not the best in the world, but I did put a decent chunk there on some Evans 80 receiving. Cause like you said, if he does get there, they're going to pull them as soon as that ends. Cause the thing you have going for you is the Saints suck. They're so bad right now. They gave up on the season truly in like week 11 and it's just been downhill from there. So I have absolutely no faith in the Saints to put up a fight in this one.

And if you don't think they put up a fight, then that does give you the perfect game script to just feed Mike Evans some easy catches, get him the record, get him the money, and then get the fuck out of there. I think that's where I was going with it. Because, again, nothing to do with the incentive. Nothing. Nothing at all.

Like you're saying, oh, yeah, the incentive. The real incentive dude the the real incentive is the fact that needs 85 for a thousand that's the real incentive like that's the real one just because like that's something you can't really you can't get that back you know what i mean like to start a career he's done it every single year baker mayfield's already talked about getting into i mean it's just the whole thing's married and then plus you have the perfect situation with the saints sucking so now you've got three different ways to getting home i don't know i think he probably gets it early so we i don't even think we have to worry

about a second half situation where they pull the guy you know what i mean i think that he's gonna have it by halftime watch i think it's the cook the saints without latimore for the first time yeah because it also helps them to feed it's not like he's some rando dude. He's the third guy on the depth chart and they're just feeding him the ball. It's not like it's on a Rudy situation. It's Mike Evans. You know what I mean? Good things happen when he gets the ball, so force feed him.

I like it. All right, Connor, where are we at? FanDuel, DraftKings? I mean, FanDuel, Caesars probably? Caesars, yeah. So right now I got us at, let's see here. I got 10 receptions for Justin Jefferson at plus 375. Crazy.

325 plus for both Goff and Darnold. And then 100 plus for Jacoby and 60 plus for Mims, which I believe is one of Stu's earlier plays in the week. And that puts us at 3009-1, so pretty good start with five legs. Any other alts that we like? I'm kind of open. There's a couple of other. Any Ertz 2 touchdown thoughts?

That's an incentive one that I don't really think makes a ton of sense sense but it's kind of fun because it's 15 to 1 but pretty ridiculous what about his receptions because he needs nine so what if he went up to like seven dude you gotta like you gotta like offshore request a bet on twitter you gotta be that guy that spams those offshores a thousand times to get earth's nine points but I don't see that anywhere else but the one I do like more than that I'd rather go Pollard two plus touchdowns a plus 475 because at least he's going to probably have a bell cow workload right I mean Ertz I mean I would be surprised if Ertz sees more than three targets maybe they actually do try to get him that that would be insane but it would be kind of hilarious um but yeah i don't know i think pollard he's shown all year long that pollard's been a great bet in general for

the titans even in shitty game scripts no matter what just because they run the hell out of the ball when spears is out and now that he's going to be missing this one freaking julius chestnut behind you i mean that's not someone we really got to worry about so i don't mind two touchdowns and r rushing yards should probably be good as well texans are like good but they're not really playing for much right now but probably half start this game this seems to be the indication so i'd rather you know give a give pauler a shot there yeah yeah i don't want that but also put that in a parlay that's a little bit risky as well that's probably more one you just throw in separately a little bit.

That's what we do here. Yeah, we want all the risk. Tight inside the tree. Ed Red had that pick in the Thunderdome today. Oh, really? The only thing is Pollard has not scored two touchdowns in a game. I think we looked it up. He did it the first game of last season.

That was the last time he did it. But I don't know. He's a dude. That means he's a game. I think we looked it up. He did it the first game of last season. That was the last time he did it. I don't know. He's a dude. First game of last season, last game of this season. Now he's done it three years straight. You know what I mean? Does he have a birthday coming up any chance?

Maybe it's his real birthday or something. Someone didn't remember that. That's why we need an intern around here. Yeah, we need an intern for sure. The other stupid one that I kind of buy into is the Devontae Adams catching Aaron Rodgers' next touchdown garbage because, like, that seems like something that they both care about.

Yeah. I thought it was in play last week, then they didn't score a touchdown with Rodgers in the game. So it's like 7 to one first touchdown score he's like plus 260 to be the first jets touchdown of the day i think on draft kings i'm not sure if that's available elsewhere but that's one of the other one i guess that would be a quote unquote narrative play that i actually kind of do buy into because i think they care about that one. Like, hey, it might be his last time playing. Who knows what's going on?

He wants the 500th, and he wants Adams to catch it. Sure as shit not going to Garrett Wilson. So, you know, probably going to Adams. You got to worry about good old Alan Lazard, his secret best buddy though, right? I mean, he's always going to catch the 500th. Yeah. You know, but he doesn't have, you know, Adams caught 200, he caught 400. They want him he's always... Yeah. But he doesn't have... Adams caught 200, he caught 400, they let him catch 500.

Yeah. You know how funny it'll be, though? He gets to the line, he wants Devonta Adams to catch it, and they'll have a play designed for Devonta Adams, and another guy's wide open. You think he's just going to not hit it, and then just chuck it into double coverage? That needs to happen.

You know how good that'll be? Triple coverage, he'll be just like we see that? Triple coverage. He'll be covering somewhere on the other side of the field. He'll do it. Just to prove a point. All right, well, I can't add first team touchdown. I could add first touchdown, but I don't really like betting first touchdown.

So anytime it's plus 125, I feel like that's a pretty reasonable – I mean, if they score a touchdown, I'm pretty confident about that. I that i'm just gonna score a touchdown on this one so i do agree that he'll force it in um i think it's kind of dumb but it's uh i mean no i would not put anything past aaron rogers like we got pat fryer moved in there he's catching five oh yeah i forgot about your your move all right what do we want chance he doesn't eight or nine catches or what we'll go five we want to make sure we hit let's do a nice safe parlay. Yeah, good safe parlay. Yeah. Good safe parlay with a touchdown score, bets.

Yeah. Yeah, the safe ones. A couple quarterbacks in the same game to go for 350 plus. You know, safe. Got to stay safe, Ryan. Safety first, guys. All right, cool. We're at 10 to win 91K.

We're in a pretty good spot. Is fun yeah this is good i mean if we want one more i think that'd probably put it over the edge but i mean we're all these are pretty reasonable honestly what would happen if we brought bought our uh draft kings boost well we can get that out oh yeah anybody paid 25 bucks this month we'll put it on your account $20 a month if they boost my limits. That's a good comment right there. I think that there's no chance that they unlimit anyone with those. It's a $25 max on them, but I can't bet $25 on most parlays on DraftKings. Can you guys?

I mean, it's like $6 or something normally. No, literally. parlays on draft kings can you guys i mean it's like six bucks there's only normally no literally do you think what happens if you if you got a fresh account here and you subscribe for the 25 a month and you just started jamming correlated parlays how fast do you think they'd get you off there with the boost i think it would be like two picks they'd be like you need to never that's that's the only good usage i can think of it is boosting counteracting the correlation parlays i think would be a really sharp way to use this but they're just there's no way i see them letting that go you'd have to already have access to a really good account already um and i don't even think they're letting everyone use this i think it's like a limited

rollout like you have to i don't know so we'll see i pray i would love to try to fight those correlation boosts back and make that a little plus cv yeah it'd be great i would actually legit if they let me bet 25 on anything unlimited boosted i would 100 pay 20 and i would like i'll make a little content bit out of it and i'll i promise you we'll win money i mean it's like i know a full draft teams account is very is like gold you know yeah they don't have no shot there's no there's no way that they would let let me do that so um i'm just gonna say something super inappropriate day of hour before kick it's like sometimes like six dollars on the parlay it's like it's the day of you should let me you like i'm giving this is a stupid bet i shouldn't even be parlaying this. You should be accepting this wager.

I do a bunch of two-leg NBA parlays, and it's right before. Dude, it's like literally $12, $17, $8. There's no rhyme or reason either. They're all just like random bets that I just cooked up like literally on the couch while I was looking at injury reports. You know what I mean? Like everyone's doing these and I still can't do eight bucks. They're not even easy.

Not even. I tried to bet for someone else. Someone called me and was like, Hey, I'm with like, you know, a person that wants to bet five grand on a game, like Georgia Bama.

We're a 30 minutes for kickoff. They just want to bet the over 57. I'm like, okay, well that's no problem. You know, whatever, as long as they're good for it. They let me get down $400. And I'm betting five minutes before a college football,

like one of the biggest college football games of the year. Like I clearly don't know anything. And I got on 400 bucks. I was like, I mean, this is just shocking. Like I can't believe they wanted to take my, it was, it lost. I mean, it was like free money for them. It was just like a stupid bet. They wouldn't to take my it was it lost i mean it was like free money for them it was like a stupid bet they wouldn't take it yeah it's blows my mind yeah all right what else do we want to add to the uh we got moose in here so one more i think is probably good yeah i don't know what you're asking

they're so happy they sponsored this yeah there's some words out there though shout out draft kings they give us some cool markets and stuff like that always always happy is there in this parlay is there room for joe burrow can you do same like i either if you want to do rushing or i even like 300 passing yards honestly for burrow but if you or you could do rushing plus passing, possibly even, boost on a couple extra yards over there. But, I mean, right, get a little bit of extra bonus there. But I don't see a team playing this much single high safety coverage against Joe Burrow.

It's just a recipe for success. I mean, he's always torched single high. He did in their last matchup. You have two good matchups and only one good corner for the Steelers, right? Joey Porter Jr., Kangard, both of these guys. I just think it's going to be another great passing game. And honestly, whether Chase Brown sits or doesn't, if Chase Brown plays, that's honestly an automatic four or five catches out of the backfield there.

If he doesn't, they're not going to be able to run the ball at all. They might legitimately run the ball like nine times this game with the running back room. So definitely like Burrow, I think he has a lot of upside in this game and it kind of matches with the Friar Ruth as well. I think that's another game that should have some good scoring. I'm slipping on anything, Burrow.

Burrow rushing, passing, 325 plus is plus 160. I vote let's just do it. That sounds great. Brings us up to 10 to win 200K. That's a pretty healthy parlay, I would say. I'm going to need one of you guys to put it in because I'm still in, well, not actually, I'll be, well, no, I'm going to be, I have a layover in Houston tomorrow morning, so also at JL State. So I'm going to need one of you guys to put it in for me,

so that way I can't, don't miss out. All right, we'll just literally move from 10 to win 198 so one of you sickos uh also bet this well we were talking about it so nice job guys but either way it'll be a good one i'll screenshot it and uh post it here i love it yeah i like it jonathan chats as uh stu looks like he's always ready to go to a Megadeth concert. You know, I try to stay ready. If you watch my show, if you're a Pass the Prop viewer, you would know it's more Grateful Dead, you know, more chill. You know, we're a little more calm over in these neck of the woods.

But, hey, I got nothing against, you know, Megadeth, anything like that. But, yeah, you know. You guyseth, anything like that. But, yeah, you know. You guys missed it before the show. Slop was trying to sell us on how he was trying to pull off Stu's hair before the show. But he made me like the playoff beard, you know. Give me a little time. Give me a little time. Slop, you got any facial hair cooking?

Anything? Any facial? Not really. I mean, I can get this going pretty quick but it's uh it's pretty gray so i try to get rid of it quick because man like it's it's gray it's over guys it's over john gray beard high slop you know it's like uh it'd be good it's it's crazy how great it is to be honest crazy no i don't even want to know what the hair would look like. It would only be on the side, like the top, not so much the side.

I bet that's equally as great as it'd be. The hair days are over for me. It happens. It happens. We all get there and I've been there for quite some time. Patrick has another good look before we wrap to Vikings' highest scoring team on Sunday, 10-1 in a few books.

If you're leaning Vikings in that game, it's a good spot. 10-1 probably Patrick has another good look before we wrap to Vikings highest scoring team on Sunday, 10 to one and a few books, right? So if you're leaning Vikings in that game, it's a good spot. 10 to one probably is a bad number. So let's see where that is. Probably even in the seven, eight to one range is probably still a good price. If that's your preferred outcome for the game, I think that's probably correct. Andrew, am I a golfer? Yes, absolutely. Am I a golfer? Turned Connor into a golfer here over the last handful of years um we have a golf site

vetsportsgolf.com check that out if you like to you know bet golf um yeah kick ass site so yeah check it out uh yes i'm very mad that it is currently 20 degrees outside and i i have to wait months to uh dust off the clubs so not to get out to the uh simulator with connor and see how his games improved over the last couple months he's been banging balls into his screen non-stop i got lessons for christmas i'm gonna be i'm gonna be good for uh good for the spring you better watch out you know not coming for you but i'm coming for i don't know someone else everybody else do we like the ball simulator though because a couple summers ago i had an internship at a sports management company and my boss had one and we used to go in there all the time and just hit

balls into it and it was fun it was so much fun for like three weeks. And this is on the clock, by the way. This is like, you know, like not paying for it, nothing like that. Even after three weeks, I was kind of like, well, it's a little bit repetitive now. You know, maybe I got my value out of it in the three weeks of free play. You know what I'm saying? After three weeks, you bet, what, five grand on one of those things? What do you do with it?

They're not cheap. Yeah. I'm an outdoor guy, but I i love the game so like i'll hit balls i literally have a uh a mattress in my garage and a mat that like gives you some feedback off of like how you like how you struck the ball and i will hit balls into a mattress in my garage you know with no feedback. So I'm probably the wrong person to ask. But I understand the thought of like, okay, at a certain point, yeah. But, you know, Conners in the league is probably getting, you know, plowed, you know, throwing back, you know, beers and having a good old time.

Because of my handicap, we came in like fifth, something like that, fourth. Nice, carrying the team. Yeah, shot on my handicap. Yeah. Carrying the team. Yeah. Shout out to my handicap. Yeah, no, it wasn't good. Also, okay, real quick, Patrick said shout out to DK Sportsbook and their kiosk, the Casino Queen in East St. Louis. You can get kicked out of there. Just a heads up, Patrick.

We, you know, not so friend of the show, but angry Patrick Dane from our Discord has gotten, is fully booted from there. So, you know, which, I mean, he is fully booted from there. He should get booted. He was just fucking killing them. Makes sense, but just adds up. If you do, then you got to get other people to go for you. Good difference.

You're making the drive to East St. Louis. If you're in the neighborhood, you're willing to risk it to get down. If you're down there. So good for you. Good for you. So, all right, good stuff as always. Again, shout out to Monotone, Stu, to join us this time.

Appreciate it very much. Again, check out all of his work on Twitter, at Monotone Football. Go over to the YouTube streets and search High Slop. You'll find all of Slopops work over there as well. Add slop rules on Twitter. Again, we appreciate you guys rolling with us. Again, your fantasy season ended. Betting never dies.

And you can go over to 444.com slash plans right now. It is less than 20 bucks for you to roll with us through the playoffs to bet. You get into Discord, get all the official plays that we're pumping out there. Even the things we put out today go out to our Discord a little bit beforehand. So I want to make sure we take care of the people that are taking care of us. So we appreciate that. As always, hit a subscribe, hit the thumbs up before you take off. For Connor, Stu, HiSlop, I'm Ryan.

We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody.