Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 2 2023 Player PROP BETS

Episode Date: September 15, 2023

Unlock the best NFL Week 2 2023 Player Prop Bets with our expert analysis! Dive deep into top picks, predictions, and odds for the upcoming games with a spotlight on Justin Herbert and other standout players to watch such as Anthony Richardson.Whether you're a seasoned prop bettor or new to prop betting, our insights will guide you to make informed decisions. Stay ahead of the game with our expert breakdowns and maximize your winning potential.0:00 Intro5:30 Nick Chubb Week 2 Prop Bet8:02 James Cook Week 2 Prop Bet12:02 Anthony Richardson Week 2 Prop Bet17:00 Justin Herbert Week 2 Prop Bet20:46 Saquon Barkley Week 2 Prop Bet26:59 Bijan Robinson Week 2 Prop Bet30:49 Gabe Davis Week 2 Prop Bet35:53 Jahan Dotson Week 2 Prop Bet38:34 Patrick Mahomes Week 2 Prop Bet44:57 Tackle + Assists Props1:03:08 OutroSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow John on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/sloprulesVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

Hello and hello and welcome the move line prop drop show presented by fan duel sports book ryan noonan back to talk about the best way the most profitable way to bet on nfl football and that is through player props live here 2 p.m eastern every friday on our four for four bets youtube channel giving you our favorite player props and taking your questions. So if you're hanging out with us, we appreciate it. If not, you're going to find us on YouTube every week,

jump in the chat. Let us know what your favorite prop is this week. If you want our thoughts on a play, feel free to ask, you want to mock the fantastic work that we do here. Do that too. We'll get to as many as we can. That portion of the show.

Again, joining us live on YouTube is your best chance to get the same number of price on these props um you prefer the podcast version should be able to find that in your feed every friday evening uh so subscribe in both places that way you do not miss an episode support the free content by subscribing goes a long way in helping us put out great tools and content here at 444. Joining me here, as always, Connor Allen, who just nearly avoided the clown suit for the show here this week. Connor, what's going on? Oh, man. For those of you guys who did not tune in for week one,

I bet that if Anthony Richardson threw for more than 250 passing yards, I would have to show up in today's show in a full clown suit. And I'm not going to lie to you guys. I was sweating. I was very confident they were going to go run heavy And I'm not going to lie to you guys. I was sweating. I, you know, I was very confident that they were going to go run heavy, that they were not going to push the pace and they did the exact opposite. Shane Syken came out and pushed the pace. They were snapping the ball with 15, 20 seconds left on the clock. Everything was schemed up perfectly. I honestly kind of equated to what we saw last year from Brian Dable and from Daniel Jones,

everything was just clicking perfectly. And so I'm just taking the L there, moving on very quickly. And not – yeah, there you go. There's the clown. That's as much as I get for this week. For those of you listening, I got a nice clown outfit here with Sal Blaschman. But I deserve it, honestly. But honestly, mid-show, or mid-Sunday, I'm sitting there in Buffalo Wild Wings in Vegas, just hungover as shit, absolutely pissed off right now because Anthony Richardson is killing me and killing all my bets.

And I'm shopping for clown suits, literally on Amazon, scrolling through my phone, just figuring out damage control. What else am I going to do? So my Sunday was interesting. Did you buy anything? Yeah, yeah, $19, $20. You're going to get a nice wig, some glasses, a whole suit. And I was going to have my wife my son, yeah, yeah. 19, 20 bucks on, you're going to get like a nice wig, some glasses, a little suit. And then I was going to have my wife do some makeup for me. It was, uh, it was going to be good. So I might have to run it back with some more bets. Cause eventually

I think one of us has got to be in a clown suit on this show. Well, I don't know about clown suit, but maybe some other attire, depending on how the week goes, but goes but uh we'll see how that kind of parses itself out again joining us in the spot every week uh gentlemen from odds jam uh if you are not familiar you can find them on twitter at slop rules it is john hi slop slop what's going on how we doing today buddy i'm just living the dream man i'm just waiting until sunday i cannot wait yeah second week is always interesting for me, the handicap. We talked about it a little bit on Wednesday's show. Two episodes of Move the Line each week. This is Prop Drop

on Fridays. Game previews, Connor, myself, Sharp Clark, 3 p.m. Eastern on Wednesdays. I just talked about I think sometimes it's really hard. We wait all season for football. Just dig into coaching changes, team scheme changes, player changes, everything.

And we come with these really fully formed takes by the time that we get to like week one. And then we get one week of 60 minutes of football. And then like, what do we do with that? Is that, you know, you want to not overreact, but you don't want to underreact to like things change and getting ahead of that sometimes can be advantageous as well. So week two is always, I think, tricky to handicap and I'm excited to see what we can

parse through for the people this week. If you want to get the official plays from us over at 444, you need a betting subscription. It gets you access to literally everything on the site. So it's not just betting. If you play fantasy, best ball, you're getting into like the pick'em sites. You need rankings, projections, any of that. That is where you want to be. Betting sub gets you access also to the Discord. The subscriber Discord is where all of the official picks are pushed through originally.

Great active chat. Absolutely love our Discord community. They are fantastic. Again, even if Connor and I aren't in there, which we usually are, you know, my wife falls asleep on my phone and discord chat with people, you know, live sweating bets on Sunday, Thursday night football as well. A great place of like-minded degenerates, which I use, you know, in an endearing way. If you're playing DFS, DJ or TJ and Daigler in there too, four for four.com slash plans. Week one is going to get you a 25% discount on your subscription. So check that out. If you need any help there, hit us up on Twitter. Happy to help you. So again, live lines for week two that you can bet on right now, not here. No stale bread.

We talked about last week. We want to make sure that we can get as many people in with us as possible. Connor floor is yours week two, let's get it started. Yeah, so I got a lot of my unders out of the way early in the Discord. So we're going to bank some overs this week. I'm feeling it. Yeah, let's go. I know. I came on the show last week and talked about an under,

and I think Slop was, like, disgusted. Like, you know, like, yeah, yeah, he was mad. So I was like, all right, you know what? I'm going to bring the heat this week. We're going to start it off with Nick Chubb, over 75 and a half rushing yards. Saw almost all the work last week before the game was out of hand, before it was 24 to 3. Jerome Ford wound up with 15 carries, but saw eight of those in the fourth quarter. And Chubb just coming off ripping a Bengals run defense that actually has been pretty good over the last few years with DJ Reeder.

And, you know, rushed for over 100 yards. Now he lines up, matches up against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh Steelers will be without Kim Hayward, who was one of the best run defenders in run stop win rate. And then on top of this, this, this number is just too low. Nick jobs hit the over in this on 14 of 18 games, including 77 and 113 rushing yards against Pittsburgh last year.

So more work, great matchup. It's all adding up here. I know this is not normally my shtick is to play high over overs, but I just can't fathom why this number is below 80, honestly. Cam Hayward's a big thing here, Slop. What do you think about Nick Chubb? You were shaking your head right away.

No, I got nervous because I heard him say, I was like, oh, God, he's dropping in the 75-plus yard market, and I'm kind of living there right now with a couple guys. So I was like, thank God he didn't just say my guy. I do like Chubb, though. He looked good. I didn't expect him to kill the Bengals last week. So any of those numbers, like the Ford guy, that was a beating.

You know what I mean? That game was over by the time he got in. So we don't know what a four-quarter game from Chubb looks like yet. But if the first three quarters last week were any indication, I think it looked pretty good. Yeah, I like it too. You know, I typically – the other one I'm waiting for on Chubb is our standard, as we talked about last week, the over 15-and-a-half longest rush.

If we can get that, that would be fantastic. That's not popped a little bit yet. They've popped some like longest rush in that game but not chubb they're wisely uh waiting for that one so that's how you know it's gonna work ryan proof always you know it's gonna work yeah i mean i feel like we're getting this first play i mean like we're gonna get a little kick return out to the 20 and then just like an 80 yard ripper to the end zone for nick chubb that means you're gonna find something else for that game though.

Connor is what are we going to watch after that? Yeah, that's actually, you know what's up? I do have an under in that game as well. So even better, your least favorite, but it's just like,

you know, rooting on the over of how often can he pick it sucks. So I think that, no, that's good. That's good. It's just, you have to like reprogram yourself.

That's all. Yep. I'm going to make it eventually. This's all. Yep. Get him there eventually. This is more overs than I was expecting for Connor in the first two weeks of the season. So we're okay. Slop, how about you? Floor is yours for your first week two play. All right.

So you might as well hit hard. Why not James Cook, 100-plus rushing yards, plus 950 at DraftKings? Here's the thing. He's never done this before, so there is that. But he did have a 99-yard game last season. He barely played last year. And if you watched last game, he looked pretty good. I mean, given the fact that they were playing the Jets,

that's a really good defense. Like, really, they looked very good to me. The Bills never really got their footing, it looked like. Josh Allen kept turning the ball over left and right, left and right. They lost, so the Bills are probably coming out pretty strong, I would say. Like, this is a must-win, that type. You know, I hate to say that, but you know what I mean. Like, week two is when those 0-1-1 teams, especially the good ones,

they're going to show up. So here we go. We got that. Now, on the flip side the Raiders run defense did not look great last week against Javante Williams and Piran I think for the Broncos neither one of those guys are very explosive though so like they James Cook should be able to take advantage in ways that those two were not able to take advantage last week we're talking plus 950 if you want you could do 75 plus at plus 300 at draft kings but i mean 50 and a half i think at fan duels like minus 115 so there's all

kinds of ways to play this i'm dead serious man like why not just go 100 plus plus 950 like seriously what's stopping you that's hot great day to get rich it's not that crazy o'connor that's all i'm saying i don't think that's plus 950 crazy that's all i'm saying that's the way i kind of view things is that is this plus 950 crazy i don't think so did you look at combined yards at all because that's interesting to me too a little bit with his work in the passing game you break a big one so all right so hang on. They had something, but they didn't have a lot up earlier, and it was kind of weird.

DraftKings price is weird. Yeah, 100 plus is plus 320. 125 plus is plus 850. I don't know. All right. So, also, too, let's go game script. I think the Bills just come out and start killing them. I think that that could be a bloodbath. I'm not saying it's going to be, but there are possibilities,

realities that maybe the Bills just come out and just steamroll them. So if that happens, maybe we're running more. You know what I mean? So why not just get this kid 100 yards for the first time? Come on. He had 99 last year. He was right there. He needs a 100-yard game.

If he's your guy, then he's a 100-yard guy. You know what I mean? He's going to need a 100-yard game. Get his confidence up. Plus, he was on the field last week 67% of the snaps. That's kind of a lot. Usage is great. Usage is great.

Matchup is solid. I mean, yeah, I can't complain. It's just a matter of the Bills offense looking functional. I think there's value across the board in a lot of their props so my second play is actually from them that we'll get to later but um yeah i think buying low after i mean they face the jets the jets are awesome defensively like their defense is sick so yes and he had like 40 something yards i mean it did come on 12 carries so i mean there's like it wasn't a very efficient 40 something yards but yeah the matchup specific it it's a big, big deal.

And I was concerned, and I think maybe, too, like part of why I kind of like where you're going here is we saw less Damian Harris than I thought we were going to see. Like Damian Harris was like battling with Latavius Murray for RB2 stuff. Yeah. Or down on the goal line. Like not even like inside the 10, though. It was like inside the five type stuff.

Like a legit like Ironhead Hayward back in the day for the Saints. Remember him? When you bring him in. Or Richard Perry, if you want to date yourself. But yeah, that was what his role looked like to me. I've also heard, Slop, that you don't get yards for scoring a one-yard touchdown. No, no. I've just heard that in a local room.

That's kind of not true. You do get one yard for that, which does not help. But, I mean, plus 950, like really? We're hanging that number on Cook? He's better than that. Well, my first looks like I got to beat Dalton because I just pushed it out to our Discord because I'm about to talk about it.

And Dalton wants in. We talked about it last week, Slop. You couldn't go anywhere without finding a little bit of anthony richardson love we are jumping back i'm not quite sure why it's a little bit off market at mgm uh anthony richardson over 38 and a half rushing yards uh our friends at fanduel here have other really good number at 40 and a half basically 42 and a half and most other books i mean look great week design runway 27 second highest in the position last week also scrambled on nine percent of the dropbacks i think is pretty good that resulted in uh 10 total carries for our boy here and i think we're going to continue to see like a lot of unique little wrinkles from Shane Steichen in getting this kid out in space.

Lamar last week, right at this mark, with a 7% design rate. So again, Richardson, way more intentional rushes against the same matchup. I think he can comfortably get there. Texans missed 14 tackles last week. That is by far the most in the league. They got to clean it up. Now they got to take this dude down. They got their hands full here.

I just, I love the potential volume here. I love the pace that we saw from the Colts. They led the league in situational neutral pace last week. I think alter in play here. I'd love to get your thoughts there, Slop. 75 plus is plus 550 on points bet. That's plus four and a quarter on DraftKings. I think I haven't seen any a hundred plus, butplus, but I think we're going to see some big games

from this kid this year. That's not that crazy. The only thing we don't know, though, is Jacksonville's run defense, are they really that good? Because I think that they had the lowest rushing yards given up last week. I didn't see the attempt. I don't have an efficiency number, but I think they were at the bottom and i was like wait are they gonna stop at the run or did they know it was coming and the colts backs up and their offensive line are they still a problem but yeah i think

it's me what's up i think it's b so they're running back like the same coordinator and literally like the same 11 starters defensively and they weren't a good rushing defense last year yeah so why are they good now? Yeah, I think it was just Deion Jackson sucks. Evan Hull couldn't really do anything before he got hurt. How afraid are you of Zach Moss? I'm not. I'm not either. I don't think anyone is.

No offense, Zach Moss, if you're watching. Yeah, I think he'll be better probably than what Jackson did last week. But, yeah, I mean, I just want to continue to be bullish on this kid in terms of his ability to run. And I know, you know, that was kind of the opposite of what Connor was on last week. Yeah. You weren't against it, Connor. What are your thoughts? No, I mean, I was all in on him running. I just thought that he was a garbage passer. I mean,

I still think he's a pretty bad passer. Like at times, I mean, you saw when things weren't schemed up for him. I mean, there were some couple of terrible plays in there, but everything was schemed up for him. There's guys running wide open. You know, it's a, there was like three guys in the backfield. They're running a misdirection. And then, Oh, there's a guy wide open for 10 yards. Like, it's like, it was just like magic. It was poetry right there. Like, it was like,

I think I knew from like three snaps in, I'm like, Oh, I'm toast. Like I'm totally toast on this bet. And so – Is that when you start living with clown suits? Yeah. Just like right away. So, yeah, I like this rushing look, especially in the high 30s. It kind of was like at 44, 45 when it opened, I thought. I thought it was going to creep up to like 50.

I mean, we're getting like high 30s, low 40s. Like, I think that's a really good look on the over. Yeah. I don't know. This is part of my entire pro-Richardson stance this season was mostly shane steichen based i just i really kind of liked what he did last year with the eagles and with jalen hurts and i just continue to believe that he is going to put him in advantageous positions like you know they just did some cool stuff with like using motion in a really good way you know little things to try to keep

the defense on their heels. And I mean, a big fan on, on the kids talent overall. So. I want to say too, I mean, the Eagles offense does not look as good without Shane Steichen. I mean, the things just like are not as easy. You know, like obviously the big plays of Devonta Smith a couple of times, but like from a consistency basis, like it feels like everything is a lot harder for Jalen hurts this year.

So I don't know, maybe that's just a natural regression, but in my mind when we're seeing Shane Steichen go and ball out, and then we're seeing the Eagle struggle almost, I mean, again, I don't want to bring this back to Brian Dable again, but like I think that's a perfect example of where the bills took a little bit of a step back as soon as Brian Dable left. So yeah, I think, I think Shane Steichen right now in my mind deserves like 95% of you know, the blame slash reward here.

Yeah, I like it. All right, I am layering some other elements, some other same-game parlays that I'm thinking about here with some thoughts I like. We'll come back to it, something else in that game I like too. But, Connor, you got a hot take for us? You got a long shot? You got something off the board a little bit

you want to kind of lean into a little bit this week for us? Yeah, so we're starting off a new segment here. Each of us is going to give off just a hot take of the week or a same-game parlay, just something a little bit fun to get the people going here. So my hot take of the week is that Justin Herbert is going to throw for over 400 passing yards in this game against the Titans here. And I already lean this way regardless because the Chargers came into last week's game. They ran the ball a ton.

They had one of the best running games in NFL history, according to Ben Solak. They really just took what Miami gave them, which is a lot of running the ball. Now Austin Eckler looks like he's trending towards being out. You have a Titans run defense that is elite. Their front seven is awesome. They're in a really, really, really good spot here

to potentially entirely shift the game plan from what we saw in week one. And that's why I think we're getting a low number here. It's only two six, 76 and a half. You can play like 325 plus yards or like, you know, plus three 50 plus 400. Um, I think they're gonna come out and pass the ball a lot. We saw Kellen Moore in Dallas against Tampa Bay a couple of years ago when their Tampa Bay run defense was basically just like this Titans run defense, fully elite. And they came out through the ball 58 times with Dak Prescott. Now you're going to see Justin Herbert, I think, throw the ball 45, 50 times here in this spot.

And just absolutely eviscerate a Titans defense that now has been announced out. Amani Hooker and Christian Fulton, they're starting safety in one of their starting corners, both out. So this defense was already a mess, allowed 300 passing yards to Derek Carr in week one, nine yards per attempt. I mean, they got some pressure on car, but when they didn't, I mean, Chris Olave was just running wild out there. Rashid Shahid was doing whatever he wanted. Even Michael Thomas looked like a superstar again. So I'm on all the alt overs here. I'm

going to be banging as many overs as I can. Mike Williams, maybe, maybe makes a card later in the week. His number is a little bit low, but some alternate over parlays there, I will be getting in on hard. I got in with you on the eight to one at Herbert. We were talking about Herbert a little yesterday, eight to one to lead the league in passing yards for the week. But I also got down a little bit of sprinkle 35 to one on Mike Williams to lead in receiving. Cause like the only healthy corner still on tennessee that i think is kind of worth his weight is sean murphy bunting in the slot that's he's gonna see probably a lot of keenan allen keenan can still win especially if we're gonna throw the volume

that we think i'm also i'm interested in over on attempts when that comes out but i think big mike if you can get on the field for 90 of the snaps and not leave for like a hammy or a knee or something mid game, like he always finds a way to do big Mike 35 to one to lead the Sunday and receiving on DraftKings is a pretty interesting look. Yeah, no, I like that. I've actually played both of those as well separately. And then Brian brought up the thing only worries that the Titans are able to run the ball effectively and control a little more clock. The thing is, I think that the Titans are able to run the ball very effectively and like in more clock. The thing is, I think that the Titans are going to be able to run the ball very effectively. And in a bad way for controlling the clock, Derek Henry's going to be ripping off 8 to 10 yards a rip

because his Chargers run defense historically has been very bad. And so, yeah, I think the Titans are going to have plenty of success on the ground here, almost to the point that it makes it like a shootout. I was looking at Keenan Allen for that exact reason, Connor. Well, actually, because of the three-legger you hit on me last year with the eagles against the same team which is why i took the saints last week their little stack that kind of paid off and it's the same reason i was looking at the chargers this week tennessee's gonna stop stop the run completely but they're actually gonna be able to run the ball on San Diego or L.A. So we're all set.

I mean, they should get their points. They won't be like last week at the Saints where it's like a 15 to 16 game. You know what I mean? It should be in the 20s, I would think. That's enough. Right. Yeah. The only way that we get screwed, there's two ways,

is if Kellen Moore just decides, no, we're just going to keep running the ball. If that happens, just throw your bets in the trash right away. Game's over. You're not hitting any of this stuff. But I i really really don't think that's going to happen but i again that's the risk uh with this like that's that's the only risk in my mind i like it uh all right slop hot takes singing parlays off the board where we at what do you got this week bud all, so I kind of went a little too hot earlier. Maybe I should have flip-flopped these. But St. Paul Barkley, 100-plus yards, is plus 285 at DraftKings. I think that is, like, that's crazy low or crazy high price for such a low. I mean, he had 12 attempts for 51 yards against Dallas' defense.

And, again, that's another defense that looks pretty ridiculous. I know it was pouring down rain. I know it was different kind of conditions, but they looked very good. And to get 51 yards off them in a 40-0 game, the offensive line didn't look that bad in the run game. Like, it looked horrible in the pass game. But in the run game, they seemed to be getting a push. Again, he got 51 yards.

They got rolled 40-0. I don't think that's going to happen any this week. I think they're going to destroy Arizona. I thought four was a little low when I saw the number earlier. I was like, wow, I thought it was going to come out a little higher just because the Giants cannot be happy with that. Dayball is a good coach. That's not that bad of a team.

They're not a 40-0 team. So, again, the whole week two, we got to get going stuff. They got the perfect team for that because the Cardinals just – I think they're doormats, and they played well last week. I think they might have a little letdown themselves. But Washington, their offensive line stunk. That's why they couldn't run. And I don't think that's the case here.

I think you're backing talent to get 100 yards plus 285 like where do i sign connor what are your thoughts there no i i like it i i i've been trying to figure out ways that i want to attack this cardinals team because i think last week and their success defensively for a part of the game had more to do with the washington commanders offensive line just being garbage than uh actually them being good so like i think in this spot here we're probably going to see Jonathan Gannon did basically exactly what he did last year so didn't blitz a lot just kind of sat his guys back but they still got pressure a little bit because again the Commanders offensive line sucks so like it's I think in this spot here with the Giants like they're going to score some points I took

the Giants team total over so I'm with you slop I think that the Saquon look is pretty solid too, but the giants have like seven receivers that they're like rotating in there. So I don't know how to play any of those guys. Maybe they just run the ball. Maybe they pass the ball. Like I haven't really gotten that far into like what I think that they're going to do in this spot.

So I don't know. Newton, any, any thoughts there? Yeah. I mean, I'm kind of with you. Like I don't want to overreact to team.

I feel pretty good on preseason handicap. I mean, they literally are telling us that they're not really trying. So the defense is not great talent wise. So yeah, I mean, finding ways to counteract, I think, public perception when you kind of airball in a big way on a public setting, like what happened in week one, like people start to adjust and all of a sudden of a sudden hey wait it's the fourth quarter and the cardinals aren't losing they're like maybe going to win this game and then you get kind of skunked in a public setting like that like they're just you're pulling in the opposite direction so finding ways to just kind of counteract that i think is what this is so i i can get there for sure also that the second half of that game was pouring down rain too so it was it was like a weird outcome that's all it was some of it's like i don't know how much we really learned but uh somebody's saying in the chat danny dimes overs if you want to get wild 75 plus yards is plus 800 50 plus is plus 210 50 plus is not that crazy because they apparently want to run him like that's what i took from last week.

Obviously, he was running for his life a few times, so there was that. But, I mean, I don't know. He's fast. They're going to be running the ball, I think. I don't think you let them throw to these, like, I don't know, like Connor said, 15-plus receivers, like especially if they're, you know, in control of the game. Dayball, he's smart. Just keep the lead.

And I bet they can run down their throat. I'm pretty sure they'll be able to run the ball down their throat. So why not take him too? They'll run him. We know that. It's not going to be one of those where you take the 50-plus and you're like, wow, he ran the ball twice. He's going to have some attempts.

He just won't get there. For sure. Yeah. Maybe we'll circle back to the danny dimes one a little bit later maybe you have like a prize picks underdog card for people that's uh something that maybe slop would be proud of um you know again we haven't heard a tight end we've had kind of two plays from slop we haven't had a tight end i. I didn't. They kind of hurt my feelings. Juwan Johnson really hurt my feelings because he is 40 plus, plus 172. Guy's got 36 yards in the second quarter.

He was about to go over, but Carr, I don't know what he was looking at, but he threw a pig. He hit the guy right in the numbers. I was like, damn, that was to Juwan Johnson. Juwan Johnson never caught another ball. I was like, you've got to be kidding me. And then that was just the beginning of the end. Also, too, it's pouring down rain, and I got David Njoku and Khalid.

It was just a rough, rough day. Yeah, tight end struggled. I do think there's a little Darren Waller spot here, though, for New York Giants bounce back. I just get scared, though, because they said something about his hamstring, and he's like, yeah, it's fine or whatever. It's like, well, why are we talking about it then? Right.

I think it's because he didn't play. Yeah, he didn't play the whole second half last week. He just, like, sat out. He played, like, 40% of the snaps because I think they were getting skunked and probably his hammy's not 100%. I did find there's a bet on draftings that I played with Dalton for those who are not limited. Darren Waller to have more than 12 receiving yards and Zachary in this game.

For me, that is cash. I like that a lot. I mean, Zachary saw 10 targets turned into 21 yards. I mean, he is just literally a catch and fall down kind of guy. And usually he's got two dogs,

right? Yeah. Dops. Yeah. Garbage. That's rough. So 10 targets, 21 yards is so hard to do.

That's so hard to do. Dallas Goddard gave him a run for his money last night. I know that. I had his yards over. Same. Same. Can you catch like 37 balls and only get 20 yards? That was fun.

Didn't think that was possible, but there we were. So many ways to go with this next one i don't really know uh exactly how i want to do it the best well i'm going to go off the board i was going to give some same game parlays i'll still circle back on those a little bit there's some systemic risk to this because the atlanta falcons aren't huge fans of the forward pass um they really like the you know wing formation and to absolutely run it down your throats. But it's hard not to be enamored with what we saw in limited work for Bijan Robinson in his first game. The upside there is massive.

On DraftKings, you can get alts on his receiving yards. 50-plus receiving yards for Bijan Robinson six to one on DraftKings now 35 percent target share last week he was running a route on 77 percent of the dropbacks now these these are really small samples because we only had 18 attempts from Desmond Ritter so I understand that the risk is just tied to they just continue to not run the football. But Bijan's the type of dude where he just doesn't need to do it in a ton of volume. That dead leg, stinky leg plant and score was such a lovely play. He's going to be exciting to watch. So 6-1, 50 yards, not a high threshold.

I know that just naturally receiving yards and targets and stuff like that can be a little bit tricky to running backs. 150-1. Thanks, Dalton, for most receiving yards of the week. I can't get there. That was Kyle Pitts. That was Kyle Pitts, actually. Sorry.

Yeah, not Bijan. I should have known better with Dalton with the Kyle Pitts tweets. Yeah. I mean, look, slot 50 yards? We're not asking him to set records. That feels doable. Does not have to set records. That feels doable. Does not have to set a record to get there. Also, too, the Packers gave up 11 receptions to Bears running backs last week.

So I don't know what that means because it was one game, and it's Jordan. There's a lot to unpack there. But that was Justin Fields. But, yeah, 11 receptions to running back. I mean, if you want to attack them like that, apparently you can, I mean, it didn't really work for the bears, but, uh, but they also don't have Bichon. So there's that too.

Yeah. A, uh, a 35% target share of the Falcons, uh, you know, passes is the numbers of the numbers, Connor. That's like eating like, that's, uh, that's like, you know, the pie numbers of the numbers connor that's like eating like that's that's like you know the pie is like a mcdonald's apple pie you know like it's not like a real pie yeah 35 of a mcdonald's apple pie it's still 35 though that's like that's like don't kyle pitts 82 and a half percent air yard share it's like you get three quarters of the mcdonald's apple pie you know i love it but it still tastes good but it's just not quite as filling as a normal share over there. I think that Bijan, we played Bijan most rushing yards, 30 to 1,

I think is interesting. He didn't get very many carries. Algier got a bunch, but I really don't think this Green Bay run defense is really that good. I would love to get an Algier number regardless. I still don't see one on the board, but I think his props are going to come in too low. So, I mean, maybe another over.

I have too many overs this week. I already have like three or four. You. I have too many overs this week. I already have like three or four. You can never have too many overs, Connor. I'm going to be living this Sunday. That's for sure. I will be live at the DraftKings Sportsbook at Wrigley, just like absolutely deleting some beers, and it's going to be awesome. Banging some overs.

Can't complain. Sounds like a great time. It's a good day right there. Yeah, like Dom gets it. Bijan, he just needs good day right there. Yeah, like good. Dom gets it. Bijan, he just needs to get loose once. We just need one, right? I mean, 50-yarder. A little bubble screen or something stupid on the side,

and the guy's gone. Then you just cash, and you're like swimming in money. Yeah. Watch. Dom gets it. Shout out to Dom. Thanks for it, Dom. All right, Connor.

Back to you. We want to remind folks that you're hanging out with us live. There's a bunch of you. We appreciate it. Shout out to Dom. Thanks for it, Dom. All right, Connor. Back to you. We want to remind folks that you're hanging out with us live. There's a bunch of you. We appreciate it. Let us know what you like this week. We want to get to your listener questions, thoughts on a play, a play you like, whatever it is. Fire off in the chat.

We will circle back to it. Make more time for that here this week. What do you get, Connor, for your next, I guess, normal play, we'll say. Yeah, next regular play here. Going with Gabe Davis over 41 and a half receiving yards. I know that's a little bit off the wall for me here. This is not a Connor Allen play. It is not a Connor Allen play, but I do like some alternate overs here.

So I think that Rich Rebar over at Sharp Football does some great work. And so, you know, like in his column this week, he had a really great stat that i thought kind of helped me uh you know articulate this so gabe davis last year against man coverage only had a 13 percent target share and 0.7 route yards per hour run which was you know pretty bad for all things considered against zone coverage 18 percent target share more than doubled his yards per hour on 1.8 yards per hour against zone coverage. Raiders played 85% zone coverage, which is sixth most in the league last week. And generally you're going to play a bunch more of that. Obviously, kind of like Slop said, I think the Bills are going to take the Raiders, you know, to town defensively here. I think we're

going to see a massive bounce back from this Bills offense. I mean, Gabe Davis, like 40 yards is like two catches for him, two, three catches. So there's also another look. I laid a little bit of a juice there, but it was FanDuel only. You can give it like minus 130 for over two and a half receptions. Again, just way too low. But I think that the over here is a good look and that I'm not saying necessarily that the line is wrong, but more often than not, he's going to see five, six targets.

He plays the entire game and he's going to be facing off against Ja'Korian Bennett or Marcus Peters, who right now graded out as 69th and 70th out of 83 qualifying corners of pff so uh you know again not a typical play for me but i think it's a fun fun over that i think is a really good chance to hit could be on one day you do it on one catch that's actually a good point i mean tougher against the zone but that is the kind of the makeup of uh of gabe davis even though you know the line you mentioned earlier around two and a half receptions like still too low kind of the way gabe plays i don't hate uh you know letting him get loose for for a big one and getting over on yards so yeah slop any thoughts

on uh i mean i know you kind of echoed the sentiment with your earlier take that you think buffalo very much could curb stomp the raiders here and he gave davis specific thoughts the only thing that scares me is that if he doesn't do that before like the third quarter or you know middle third quarter you're gonna be like oh shit you know like they're not gonna throw this ball you know you know you're drawing bad but that's if it goes the way we think it's gonna go like if the raiders start scoring on them, then we're all set. You know what I mean? That thing's –

Yeah. All we need is a little bit of pushback here. I think you can get it in the first half. He'll have one or two shots in the first half. It doesn't matter whether he connects. Yep. Exactly. Literally.

That's the only thing I hate about the Gabe Davis guys because it's going to have to come on one or two. You know what I mean? They're going to be these deep shots. But those are the most fun to take because they can come on one or two you know what i mean they're gonna be these deep shots but those are the most fun to take because they can come on one shot yeah and that's why i liked it at like 40 instead of like 50 55 which is where i was hanging out at times last year because i mean 220 yard catches feels reasonable you're talking about 50 like you basically need like a 40 50 yard catch like hit that really like you need a little bit more connection yeah so i was told on our wednesday

show that you know we need to be scared of jimmy garoppolo going into buffalo this week so i don't know maybe get some pushback uh i'm not sure if you didn't listen to our wednesday show uh you know i was we used to do this as an original bit for us back in the day i move the line at the end of the show i would share with connor uh and our guest at the time a fishy parlay of the the week or a fishy teaser of the week and make the guest kind of tell me where it's going to blow. We kind of moved away from the bit, but I did it unintentionally, not thinking that I was having a bit moment,

but I felt like there was a couple of really clear money line favorites this week, Buffalo being one of them. I also think that the niners kicked the absolute crap out of the rams and i cannot see zach wilson going into dallas and winning those three teams to win on the money line parlayed it's like plus 101 on draftkings um minus 110 with our friends at fanduel which is where i laid the bet because of course we appreciate fanduel so yeah i mean i don't. And then all of a sudden I got these guys dunking on me that you know, it's a, what did he call it?

Clark called it a survivor, survivor pool or lay or some garbage like, you know, from his ivory tower. But yeah, I mean, I don't know. I also said that if somehow Zach Wilson goes into Dallas and wins this week, that I would wear a cowboy hat and assless chaps on our next show. I was then informed that all chaps are assless.

I don't know why they call them assless chaps. Whatever. But yeah, yes, I do the show mostly sitting down, but I can stand up for the folks. I'm wearing assless chaps right now. See, no one even knows. Are we going to get flagged on YouTube? I think producer Sal might be pretty sad.

I feel like we made some good progress on this channel but we might get tagged as like a four for four only fans instead of our regular account i'm willing to do whatever the people need so yeah uh i don't think that parlay loses again that's a bonus play for you guys but uh we're basically pro bills is what we're saying based off of some of the three of us are our takes so far this week. So, Slott, back to you. What is the next play you've got on the board here for us? All right, so I don't want to do this by the time I do it, so I'm going to do it.

It's Jahan Dodson over – it's 50-plus receiving yards. It was plus 120 this morning when I got it, but it's plus 110 right now. So if you want to get a little bit more wild, I think you could go 75-plus. I think he gets it. He looked good last week in the first half with Sam Howell. Sam Howell had like a million yards in the first half. And then you see what he finished with. I think he threw for like five yards in a second.

It was something stupid. But it was pouring down rain again. Jahan Dodson was winning the whole game. I think he ended up with 40 yards on, I think, five catches, seven targets, something like that. So, I mean, he is getting used. Terry McLaurin is probably going to get followed around by Pat Sertan, I hope. At least if that happens, then that leaves that Mathis kid on Dodson.

He's going to baptize him. Definitely. There's no chance. So 50 yards, not a lot. I think the Broncos also can score on the commanders. So there's that as well. So now we can kind of keep going all day with the ball in the air. 50 plus, plus money.

I mean, I have to do that. You have to do it. He's my favorite too. he's one of my new favorite like the new guys is dodson like he's gonna be he's gonna turn into a gabe davis where you don't get the 30 you know yards in the high 30s anymore on him so that's gonna happen one day it's already starting to happen he's now creeping into the 40s so if you want to get some plus money you gotta go you know 50 but i think he's good for it feels i love dotson yeah i love dotson yeah i pushed push for him in our ffpc main event draft that we did together i lost that battle um i think we're gonna be okay but uh yeah we landed jordan edison jordan mf and edison bro he's crushing. I mean, he's balling out there on like 70% snaps.

I like Madison. We haven't started him once. We haven't started him once. You know what? Actually, you know what? We should have had Calvin Ridley on that squad too. I think Daigle's in the chat. I'm still mad about it.

It was the right decision at the time, but we drafted Josh Jacobs over him. Either way, I'm just sweating. I love Calvin Ridley. It's the third round. Josh Jacobs in the third round. Pretty good pick. i love calvin really it's the third round josh jacobs in the third round pretty good pretty good pick oh that's not bad yeah late third round 310 yeah yeah oh is it before though he was back from the hold up yeah okay yeah yeah it was a little risky a little risky no risk and no biscuit i like yeah you sometimes just gotta take a risk yeah or all the time whatever still sad should have gotten calvin ridley but it's all right

all right uh next play for me we are uh we're gonna stay in the same lane you know i learned from slop last week i liked it you just pick a lane i typically my lanes tackles we'll get there as well well we're staying with some quarterback oh we love the tackles quarterback rushing yards is uh also another lean that i love uh maybe we throw Danny Dimes in here. I got another one that we're not going to go in depth with, but going back to the well on Patrick Mahomes, this is on FanDuel, of course, shout out to FanDuel, over 19 and a half rushing yards for Patrick Mahomes. I don't know what we're doing.

It's 20 and a half on points bet, mostly 22 and a half everywhere else, which is, you know, I think still very much in play. I play that there. Last week, six attempts, 45 yards. He is a willing scrambler. The books are lagging behind on this. Some of his, I think what's probably dragging down some of the late season stuff last year in terms of his rushing outputs were tied to, you know,

he like tweaked his knee. I think it was week 10, week 11 in Cincinnati. And then of course we had the game last year in the playoffs against Jacksonville where he got rolled up on. So we have some, like, low overall rushing outputs from him. But, like, when he's healthy, he runs. He was – this game last year when they played against Jacksonville in the regular season, he ran it seven times for 39 yards. Jacksonville had 469 rushing yards against them last year. Third most in the league by

quarterbacks. They faced the fifth most attempts. Same DC, same personnel as we talked about comfortably last week with Anthony Richardson going over this line. This should not be below 20. Very comfortable in the low 20s as well. So give me Patty Mahomes on FanDuel over 19 and a half rushing yards. Connor, what are your thoughts? It was on my list, but when I originally checked it, it was like 24 or something like that, 23. And I was kind of like, eh, maybe not. I think that's still probably fine, but obviously the 18 and 19 was good. I did get in on a little bit of action with you on Thursday,

not officially, but just personally. And so I'll probably be following along again. Yeah, Sloppy, what do you think about rushing yards on our boy Patty Mahomes? officially, but just, you know, personally. And so I'll probably be following along again. Yeah. Sloppy. What do you think about rushing yards? He only goes over and rushing yards when I do not bet him. So here's what I'll do for you. I'm a great guy.

I will not bet. So I appreciate it. Man of the people right here. Yeah. I mean, people, people. You want to get a, you know, same lane type of, you know, prize picks play? Patrick Mahomes, Anthony Richardson.

We said Danny Dimes. I also really like 24 and a half yards over for Deshaun Watson against Pittsburgh. I really regretted not pulling the trigger on Watson rushing last week. Got there easily, cruised, and again, in this spot against Pittsburgh, I think he's going to have some tucking runs, 24 and a half, not a big number. I think he had like 30-something last week too. So, yeah, there's a four-legger for you on prize picks,

just quarterback rushing yard overs. You're welcome. You can tag me on Twitter, send me the screenshot after you win. All right, so what about tackles on there so all right i've been messing around this uh dfs correlator tool i'm gonna point right here dgf makes it it is legit all right i mean it's i love it right um i noticed punts end up in there and i I thought about you because I saw tackles. And it got me really looking at price picks because obviously you're like, wait a minute, so what markets do we offer here?

So we've got tackles. We've got punts. And we've got – there was another one that I was really in love with. Oh, receiving yards. But I feel like between us, we could probably put together at least a six-legger. No problem. receiving yards but i feel like between us we could probably put together at least a six-legger no problem easy and they let you correlate on that without really docking it too much i mean it's fixed odds obviously but i mean they still let you correlate it's you know the same thing every time you just can't do certain things like i think like past attempts with receptions and

stuff like that okay but i mean whatever yeah fire away what did you guys think what about like uh trevor lawrence play i know i saw a couple of sharp groups uh play trevor lawrence over three and a half rush attempts he had eight rush attempts last week or it was like it was like eight maybe it was eight designed rush attempts it was it was a lot like it was an insane amount uh hey okay i'm citing this wrong give me a second here i think dalton played it um let's see here not to blow up his spots but he got down on this like i don't know dalton knows everybody a week ago so he had six design rushing attempts six design rush times i mean his prize line is three and a half yeah that's that's definitely uh i don't know if you

guys is jones playing yeah he's playing chris jones playing yeah so i don't know if you guys – Is Jones playing? Yeah, he's playing. Chris Jones is playing. Yeah, so I don't know. So you try and go away from him. Maybe you run with your quarterback. Yeah, I see that happening. I don't know if you guys remember, but it was one of the college football playoff games.

Trevor Lawrence just put some guys in the spin zone out there. It was just like straight up circle slash B button for those Madden players out there, the defenders. So, I mean, he can scoot, you know, sneaky athletic. Yeah, sneaky athletic. My favorite description. The best term. Yeah.

Yeah, it's kind of right in line with what he did last year. So, like, 2.18 design rushing attempts per game and 1.4 scramble. So, like, basically 3.6 attempts per game. So, yeah, I i mean it could be that you're on the early side of a trend or it could be that you're overreacting to one game game and it's a coin flip but you're probably not a bad bet yeah i don't know honestly it's a great way to put it i mean i feel like not sure which one we're at right now i think casey scores on them.

That's the tough part. They get into a little baby shootout. It's going to rain, though, I heard. So that's the only thing I hated about that. I hate the rain. Just don't rain. Let's check the weather. Florida rains different, though.

It's Florida, so you don't know. Yeah, always rains there in Florida. I'm in on Trevor Lawrence over on attempts. I played that for our subscribers this morning at 35.5. I think it's up to 36.5 now, but I think 39 and 40 last year in those matchups against them, they typically bumped their pass rate up pretty significantly when they play the Chiefs about 10%, 12% higher than normal. So it seems throw play uh the chiefs about 10 12 higher than normal so

it seems throw heavy against the chiefs anyway so yeah i'm in on some pro lord stuff but uh all right get to some tackle stuff uh jump in the chat again let us know what you like i'm gonna give you fired off a bunch of tackles fired off some more this morning i have three looks that i really like that are not on the board but i I want people to circle these and get ready for them. First is Denzel Perryman on the Texans. We hit over six and a half on Denzel Perryman last week, cashed at halftime. I finished with 14.

I think we're going to see maybe seven and a half this week. Still love it. Maybe even interested in a plus money, eight and a half. I haven't projected at 9.6 facing this Colts team. We've already talked about up in pace. Our boy for a Louis con for Jacksonville got the double digits last week against Indy heavy run game, short intermediate passing game. That helps the linebacker position as well. And the scorekeeper tilts very strongly in the Texans direction here this

week. Texans average 8.1 more assists per game than the visiting team and 4.1 more than the league average. So they like to give extra tackles and assists to their guys. Perryman's going to benefit in his first home game in a Texans uniform. I'll write that name down. Next is our king, Alex Singleton. All right, people aren't familiar, don't know Alex Singleton.

You need to get familiar with Alex Singleton. He is the best aren't familiar. Don't know Alex Singleton. You need to get familiar with Alex Singleton. He is the best per snap tackler in the league. I do everything I can to fight the projections here to dial it back for this guy. So in my projections, I have 12 guys who play meaningful snaps each week who have a snap per tackle mark below seven. It's an elite mark. Just 12 guys. Last year, Singleton was 4.9. The year before, he was 5.3. So not a one-year blimp. He breaks the model.

Beast. I regressed him back this year. His baseline mark for my projections is 5.85. So almost a full point higher than what he did last year. He played 90% of the snaps last week, which is encouraging to see new coordinator there. I'm only projecting him for 85% of the snaps this week. I still have him at almost 10 tackles.

He's probably going to get posted at like six and a half or seven and a half. The matchup at home is the best that we get basically like second to home Atlanta at home. And then the matchups against Washington and running backs or linebackers there is elite. So Alex Singleton, if he's posted, it's going to be really hard to not fire on him over this week. Even with a high number, we can ladder him up. If you get bet three, six, five, you play on like, you know, prop builder, you might be able to get some adjusted lines on alex singleton here's our tackle king love him there uh nate hobbs is my last one hobbs is a corner for the las vegas raiders probably one of the best tackling corners in the league

if you put up big tackle numbers a corner it's usually not a great thing that means the teams are not afraid to throw at you but we've seen Hobbs put up some massive tackling numbers, including 12 last week. He had eight solos and four assists. He only played 10 games really last year. He had nine in week one, 11 in week two, nine in week five. He missed some time, came back the next two weeks, eight, nine. And then the matchup against the Bills, the Bills averaged 15.7 tackles per game against last season for corners,

second most in the league. Intuit league intuitively that should make sense to you they throw a lot they don't really run traditionally against like linebackers and stuff and the scorekeeper is working against them but i worry less about that when it comes to assist because of the just the dynamic and how corners get their tackles they kind of solo out on an island hobbs is really good at wrapping guys up he's not like in the pile where you need him to get a stack assist. So he'll probably get hung at five. We'll fire on eight Hobbs. So Nate Hobbs,

Alex Singleton, Denzel Perryman, pray that they get posted. We will fire in on those guys over this week. Who is that guy that we unloaded on? What's his name? Byron Jones, maybe.

Byron Young. Byron Young. Yeah. There you go. Different one uh byron young byron young yes yeah there you go different one byron young it's still out there byron young still out there it's it's like it's not plus money anymore so byron young is an edge rusher um for the rams rookie played one game three tackles i still find him in a prize pick entry i I was like, I think I know that guy. Prize picks, underdog. Byron Young is still out there. He's an edge rusher. There is a reason.

His lumber got hung at six and a half. I don't know why. There was five and a half plus money. It's still kicking around between five and a half and six and a half. Edge rushers, there's a reason that we don't bang Nick Bosa, Micah Parsons, Miles Garrett over three and a half. They're always at like three and a half for a reason. Edge rushers just don't get a ton of tackles.

They're not high volume tackle guys. They go to get the quarterback. They'll get three to four, and that's where their number is. Byron Young has one game. He's the third round pick out of Tennessee. We had a guy in our Discord went and looked at Tennessee game logs, and he never did this at Tennessee. And they play a ton of plays in Tennessee.

So for some reason, the books still think that that's a good number. This can lose. I'd be really, really surprised if somehow this kid managed to go out there and hang seven tackles, which we originally posted as a play. It was minus 117 under six and a half. So again, still out there as a prize fix play. Still out there, I think, at minus 160 on six and a half. You want to throw that in a parlay with something else that you really like

or whatever? I just feel really good about this kid going under six and a half tackles. So those are some of the ones that are still out there. We'll bang some more. Again, you want to get these numbers when they're pushed out, sub to the channels, sub to 444, and get in the Discord. So, yeah, we'll do our best to continue to learn and adjust. And, yeah, there will be some more.

Kyle Duggar, I see a question. We'll maybe get some Kyle Duggar, depending on what we have there. He owes us money, Slav. Kyle Duggar failed us last week, so we want to not cross him off. We're going back to the well. He hooked us last week at four. Only way to get your money back is to bet on him again. That's it.

Simple. It's easy. If you ban him, you'll never get your money back. That's a fact. What about Jalen Johnson of the Bears? I have him in one of these prize pick slips somewhere. Yeah, I'm still seeing Byron Young's sixth tackle, so we got to make a little

slip here. I just don't get it, dude. I mean, I really don't. 84% of the snaps, edge rusher. If he plays 100% of the snaps and maintains his strong snaps per tackle rate of last week, I have him at 4.4. That's with 100% of the snaps and maintains his strong uh snaps per tackle rate of last week i have him at 4.4

that's with 100 of the snaps so um i just i'd be really surprised if he has an outlier tackle performance just you know whatever i just again this is sometimes you just gotta lean into it trust the numbers and uh this one seems like one i'm comfortable telling people to to hammer because uh he needs to just go out and do something that the best players at his position don't do again micah parsons had one game of four tackles over four tackles last year one game of five i'm sorry um one at four and the rest were three and two and one so he's we're asking byron young in his second game in the league to do something that Micah Parsons did not do at all last year. I mean, you have to have an irresponsible amount of money

at this point, right? I mean, the way you're talking about it. So when we moved it off of 6.5 and it came, well, I took the 6.5 and then hammered some plus money at 5.5 for sure. So yeah, we need him to get under. Five tackles is fine. And I think five tackles would be a great performance for the kid.

So yeah, it doesn't make sense. Slop, what was the one you were talking about? Jalen Johnson? Okay, so I'm on the DGF optimizer right now. And it's saying they like Nick Chubb over 75 and a half rushing yards. Apparently at the books, they got at 79 and a half. Right underneath him is Jalen Johnson. Tackles plus assists over three.

Sports books apparently have him at three and a half. Sports books have him at three and a half. Yeah, I have Jalen Johnson. Yeah, I have him at three on the dot. I mean, because Kyler Gordon's out too, so they're probably just not. Who's even starting that in place of him? So we're going to see them throw the ball probably. He played 99% of the snaps last week.

So it's not like he's getting up. He's not getting a bump from Kyler Gordon being out. Who are they playing? Tampa. Oh. Yeah. 18.74 snaps per tackle and assist. I have a 58 play projection on the game.

It's literally on three on the number. So not necessarily a bettable edge per se. Either way. Yeah. But you're going to run hot and Jalen Johnson is going to come in for you. That's what I think. I bet he's going to have three on the first drive. That's the thing with tackles, especially with the overs.

These come in bunches. They come in bunches, and you feel like you're dead. The Leighton Van Der Esch thing is the one I talked about, I think, before. All of a sudden, you get four tackles in a row, and all of a sudden what you thought was dead is cashing a winner. Now, that feels like a very, very fun sweat sweat and obviously i'd like the lowest number possible that way i mean that for obvious reasons but you're not going to get that if you know you have middle linebackers stuff like that but once you get defensive pilled slop you can't watch the game in a different way it

changes i know i i can only imagine i i'm i going to be ruined at the end of the season. I'm not like defense. It's like what's happening right now. Yeah. You want the other team to kick? Yeah. You want to get your guy back on the field. Come on. I was sweating punts last night for the first time ever. I've never really done that before. That was weird, but I'm ready to do it again. And I will will i've got some questions questions in the chat here uh david wants to know about brock purdy over one and a half passing touchdowns um anytime you throw just throw us the price to um you know let us know what your

the price is because that's gonna matter a little bit i loved re-watching that san francisco pittsburgh game i thought Purdy was really good. I'm not surprised Kyle Shanahan could do that to a team. I bet over 26.5 on the Niners this week. One of my favorite totals of the week. Absolutely love

this Niners team and this matchup. You can tell me on that. Slop, any thoughts on Brock Purdy? I'm so scared of San Francisco because they're so just marching to the beat of their own drum. It's very tough, especially they can run the ball at will. So that's another problem with Purdy. Their defense is so good. So that's another issue with Purdy.

Like, if you don't get it on the first couple touchdowns, you know what I mean? You're probably not going to get it. Yeah, that's a tough one. One and a half, though. I mean, that's pretty much my range. I like that for touchdowns for quarterback. Obviously, you only need two. So, you know, it's not that crazy.

So, I don't know. I can't be sweet with it. What was the price? Think of the price. It's like even. It's like minus 113. All right. I mean, here's the thing.

If you throw like a plus 105 there, now I'm interested. You know what I mean? I totally wasn't interested at all. And now I hear like a plus 105. Now you got my ear. Okay. So since Brock already took over, I'm sure this is why this guy brought this up. So since Brock already took over, in the regular season, he is two or more touchdowns in,

I believe it's seven straight games since he started his career. And if you include the playoffs, yeah, if you include the playoffs, he has eight of his nine. The only time he did not throw any touchdowns was against Dallas. Obviously in that close win. And then he got hurt against Philly,

like a couple of plays in. So yeah, I mean, I don't know how stable that is or sticky, but yeah he's been good you know I mean they score a lot of points and I don't think there's any reason to think otherwise here so yeah I would definitely lean over on the minus with 13 even though touchdowns are not really my vibe either so especially at San Francisco I mean a lot of times I'll look into those whenever you've got a Titans or a team like that you know what I mean that just stops the run I'll look into those whenever you've got a Titans or a team like that.

You know what I mean? That just stops the run. So, you know, once they get down there, it's like it's kind of unlikely that, you know, we're going to see somebody run in for a touchdown. So teams are going to have to kind of shift. Like maybe you get two shots at the end zone instead of just one. Does that make sense? Yep. 100%.

Yeah. Look at Nick Chubb. I like this guy. I missed this one from Brian. Oh, wait, what's this one? Geno, 12 plus 5. I missed this one from Brian earlier. This can go into our quarterback rushing.

Yeah, 12 over for Geno. Geno did this last year a handful of times. And we bet him again i think we're getting newton stuck here uh-oh lions are good team in the attack quarterback rushing because they play a decent amount of uh-oh he's dead he's a goner Nunez got that cricket wireless internet again uh oh they start fading away

yeah it's over yeah it was going pretty well for most of the episode I think I think the internet's good oh I thought we had it back you were back yeah Nunez was almost back there I thought we had it back. You were back. Yeah, Noonan was almost back there.

I thought I was back. You're kind of back now. Let me see. All right, then Noonan just gave the lock of the year. You heard it, right? Yeah. Yeah, Darren Summer. Noonan just gave the lock of the year right there. That's great. What's up, Darren?

What up, Darren? How are we doing? Okay, what were you guys talking about? Yeah, first Geno. You were talking about Geno rushing yards, right? That was a good one. I was ready to move on to there's a guy talking about Nick Chubb all yards 140 plus at plus 850. I think that's a little high. I like to go with kind of manageable number,

but for a guy who doesn't normally get that number, if that makes any sense at all. Like, once you start talking about 140, it's like, Jesus. Like, that's a lot. I mean, I don't know what they're talking about. So, there is that. But, I don't know. You think he runs on the Steelers like that?

That seems like a beatdown. No Cam Hayward. I'm betting on him. I'm going to toss for them. I guess there's an avenue for it, but man, $1.40, that's a lot. Yeah, that's a pretty hefty ask there. But hey, I mean. Producer Sal will like this one. It's not some bullshit guy.

Yeah. Nenon, were you talking about Yushak? Now we got juice for two tds yep kyle used shack two tds oh i think he was talking about the 49ers when they get down there yeah yeah exactly i mean like it's it turns into like a run or pretty runs one in just like what just happened like yeah and then i think we got one more here justin fields over 169 f passing yards i just could not be more out on the bears passing game but um i know that they technically got there before so i don't know slop any any justin fields takes i i can't do it i don't know what to say about him and now like i'm i'm out completely on anything chicago bears like if there was

relegation they might get relegated yeah the city of chicago is ready to force them to move to arlington because of how bad they're playing um they can go live next to noonan because i mean it was shameful just a truly shameful week one it's very clear everything that they talk about the off season is not coming to happen i think that if they keep this up they're cleaning house here pretty quick uh as well maybe maybe pole survives but gets he's got to be dunzo here pretty soon if you guys didn't watch the qb school um twitter clips about it about justin fields i mean holy shit like they're these guys are running routes into each other like you have like guys just like like justin fields is supposed to hit a throw wide open doesn't hit it scrambles and then there's no one on that side of the field to throw to so he says throw the ball away i mean it is a complete train wreck uh right

now in chicago so yeah i again probably lean over he's the number so low and like he's i mean better than like zach wilson and much better situation but i can't play that at all. Yeah, I'm still kind of mad. A lot of my Bears hate just comes from the fact that DJ Moore didn't get like 45 yards and it ruined a price pick slip. So there is that. I mean, it's very biased, but yeah, what Connor said. Yeah, for sure. Lamar rushing, Dom, I think it's 46.5, 100-dogger vivid.

I don't know. He kind of didn't run as much so far. Like, there was a little bit of a transition in the offense. I wasn't really as impressed, honestly, with the new offense so far. Yeah, me neither. Wasn't something weird about that? Oh, it was Houston. So, what do you show with a playbook against them when you're winning?

They weren't always ahead on the scoreboard, but if you watch the game, it always looked like they were up 31 nothing yeah it just kind of felt like that too like also they were just like out of sync mark andrews wasn't there's a flowers making his first start and he balled out rashad bateman only played 57 of the snaps like all of these guys really just weren't in sync at all so i mean it'll get better but what are we going to see from the rushing perspective? So yeah, I think it's a major question there. Um, Ryan Terrell, Eckler not practicing again today, Herbert passing. Yeah. I mean, just, it's, it's going to be go time boys. Um, I'm going to, I mean, obviously don't get irresponsible, but I think, uh, playing some alternate overs there is a good look, good way to get exposure to potentially ceiling outcome there specifically.

Uh, Noonan, you look kind of back right now. Uh, you want to do a little outro here or any last look good way to get exposure to potentially ceiling outcome there specifically uh newton you look kind of back right now uh you want to do a little outro here any last uh words i thought it was back i'm going to send this computer to the moon i'm not sure what's happening there but you guys did a good job carrying that i heard everything i just for some reason i kept the screen is just spinning black and who knows, but good stuff as always. Again, appreciate everyone hanging out with us in the chats and firing some thoughts to us. Again, get into the Discord and continue to get access to us all the time. You can tag any of us. Our subscribers know any questions, we're always available.

444.com slash plans, promo code week one gets you 25% off. Again, gets you access to everything on the site. Again, don't forget to go over to odds jam, find out all the great stuff that they got going on. Sloppy want to tell anyone about anything going on at odds jam or anything that you've got going on, buddy. Two week free trial free, like completely free promo code, slop at odds jam, check out the tools. I'm telling you,

it saves me a lot of time. Oh, like all the time. Also at DGF, that fancy optimizer I was talking about. Slop is the promo code. I think it's 25% off for life. So there's that too. So telling you. It's a long time. Yeah.

I mean, that's a long time. Exactly. Well, hopefully. Oh, yeah. Ideally. Yeah. Theoretically, it's a long time. Yeah.

Hopefully for all of our listeners. So yeah, Connor, you want to tell anyone about their you know recommend any big booty mixes um for the people um yeah uh if you're interested in like an hour-long mix uh big booty mix by two friends um i like number 18 and 15 but uh if you need to get some stuff done it's a vibe real. For all the youngs out there that like a little bit of, you know, pop EDM remix for an hour, it's absolute bangers. All right. Big booty mix for the people on the way out the door. Love it.

Don't forget to subscribe, rate and review, thumbs up, comments, likes, all those things. YouTube podcast form. We appreciate it greatly. We'll be back on Wednesday for our game breakdowns for week three. We get back in the spot every Friday afternoon. So for Connor and slop, I'm Ryan. We'll see you next time.

Thanks everybody. Yeah!