Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 2 Player Prop Bets! | Top Picks, Predictions & Odds

Episode Date: September 13, 2024

Get ready for Week 2 with our top prop bet picks! 🏈 Join us as we break down the best NFL prop bets for opening week, analyzing player performances, key matchups, and hidden opportunities to maximize your winnings. Whether you're betting on touchdowns, yardage, or game-changing plays, we've got the insights you need to make the smartest bets. Subscribe now and start the season with a winning edge! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan  Follow John on Twitter 👉🏼    / sloprules   Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

hello and welcome to move the line prop drop show presented by DraftKings Sportsbook I'm Ryan Noonan back to talk about the best way in the most profitable way to bet on NFL football with my friends Connor Allen and John Hyslop we're here to talk about player props live here 3 p.m eastern every Friday favorite hour of the week we are live here on the 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel. We are here to give out our favorite player props and to take your questions. So if you are hanging out with us now on YouTube, again, 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel. You can find us on Twitter as well.

Jump in the chat. Let us know what your favorite prop is this week. If we have time at the end, we will get to as many questions as possible. Try to fly through this here, give you guys the goods of feeling good about week two. We were real close to some real good stuff last week. If we have time at the end, we will get to as many questions as possible. Try to fly through this here, give you guys the goods of feeling good about week two. We were real close to some real good stuff last week. Some good stuff did happen, but like,

you know, some of the uncorrelated stuff was just like real, real close. So yeah, Connor, what's going on, man? Nothing.

It was an awesome week. One at my best week, one ever went like 11 and three on official plays. That was with losing Gardner Minshew by half a pass attempt with losing Ezekiel by half a rushing yard. Obviously we got bailed out a little bit there with David Montgomery running all very pure and overtime there, but he should have had it already.

Like he should have had that before, but they didn't give him a carry in the entire fourth quarter or the, all except the third quarter. Like I think it was like four minutes in was the last carry in the game so definitely could have it could have been like literally a perfect week but i will definitely take whatever seven and a half eight units to start the season cannot be a uh threesome without a third that's our boy john high slop at slop rules on twitter what's going on bud what's up guys just, guys? Just living the dream, man.

I was telling Connor backstage that I actually profit on week one, which I never do. Never do. Literally, you can go back every single week one since I was like seven and just never, never profit on week one. But we made it. I think it's because of you guys. I'll be honest with you.

It's because of you guys. Hats off. you it's because of you guys hats off nice work love that love me out big time well also in jameson williams so besides him he's basically like if we had a fourth on the show yeah it would be jameson williams literally i mean we're trying to get him on but you know front of the show it's probably not gonna happen just considering his past seems like a give it a few years like after maybe after he retires yeah seemed like a bad decision decision like the the bill belichick tour you know joining all these shows it can be the jameson williams tour you know maybe not the same level of impact but same level of impact to us because he you know to us yes yeah he holds a place in our heart well maybe mine and yours probably not newton's newton's like, you know, born and bred New Englander

who loves the Patriots more than anything. Oh, come on. Noonan's not in the game anymore. I think he's on. Sunday night in our chat on Twitter right there, J-Mo got him. I was like, man, he's watching J-Mo. He loves him. Yeah.

We were so close, man, because, you know, under three and a half catches over the yards, he's watching Jamo. He loves him. Yeah, we were so close, man, because, you know, we had the under three and a half catches over the yards. He hit that, and then we just needed Cooper Cup to blow up. Puka was out of the game. Cup blew up, and then Jamo was just so damn good. He caught two extra balls. That's the problem. He's just too good.

That's the issue. He's no longer an uncorrelated guy. No. He was the perfect one too last year i think we got another perfect one you might come up with this this week okay all right i'm ready i'm ready for sure connor and i are both uh circling the wagon on that one but i think uh i think it will not be a hard sell for you slop for you to get on the wagon so oh i'm already in love it uh want to remind folks two episodes of move the line each week.

This is prop drop on Fridays on Wednesdays. You can check out our game preview. It's usually Connor, myself, and a guest. We had Ed Bang at the power rank on this week. That was a great episode previewing some of that stuff. We were all on Buffalo for last night on Thursday night. So good stuff in there. And then it's at the end of the show too. So you don't even have to worry about skipping Thursday night. You can listen to kind. And then it's at the end of the show too. So you don't even have to worry about skipping Thursday night. You can listen to kind of the meat and potatoes at the front.

If you want to talk about size and totals, check out Move the Line, wherever you listen to podcasts. If you want to get all the official plays, like we're going to put out some plays here before we even talk about them here on the show. They're going into our Discord at 4 for 4 for our betting subscribers. If you want to get the betting subscription to get in there, get all the plays before those lines move a little bit,

start to move pretty quick depending on what the market is. And again, the betting sub gets you access to everything that we do at 444. So every article, tool, all the rankings, projections, if you play DFS, redraft, best ball, no matter what it is, it's covered in there. Again, if you just want really good data tools and do your own research, we have all that for you as well on the site. Lots of cheap ways to get access to it too. You can head over to our Twitter account at 444football. I can find lots of different ways to

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No stale bread. Uh, we want to make sure people can get the best of the number, best of the line here. Again, jump in the chat. Let us know what you want to talk about at the end. I think we have some loose corollaries for our first plays across the board here. This can end up being some sort of same-game parlay, sprinkling in an offense in three different ways.

Connor, I'll give you the floor first. Get us started. Yeah, first official play here. I'm going with Jared Goff over 269 and a half passing yards. You can find 268 on builder fan to a couple other spots as well. But, you know, company man here, draft Kings, I think still has a solid price. 269. This is fine.

He's going to throw for 300 plus. I'm also taking the alt. He has shredded Todd Bowles defense. Each of the last two matchups here, 287 and 353. They play a ton of two high, ton of zone. Goff's completed 72% of his passes against zone. Bucks will be without Antoine Winfield. A few of their other corners were dinged up. It looks like they're going to play, but again, still not a defense that I'm necessarily afraid of. Now we also saw this Lions team last week. They unleashed the beast of Jameson Williams. They're running them on drags.

They're getting them into space. They are just like letting, you know, taking off the reins here. It's going to be electric. I'm excited. Like we saw a good game last week for them. And you see the dogs howling too, baby. I mean, we're cooking here. This is, we saw,

we didn't even see a good game last week from Amin Ra and Laporta. And, you know, Jameson popped off. I think all three of them could go off in this instance here where we should probably get some good pushback from this Bucs passing offense. Still look good. Give me one second, guys. Dogs love it, though, too. And that's confirmation bias.

I think that worked last week, too. Yeah, I could not agree more. Slop's going to be in the same spot. I'm going to jump him here because it's in the same vein. You highlighted why Goff is going to pop off. It's because we are going to hammer Jamison Williams' longest reception. This is right in my wheelhouse. Over 21.5 yards.

You could find this on D on draft kings at minus 115 a fan duel as minus 114 rivers caesars mgm widely available price here uh on 21 and a half for for jammo um i mean look connor kind of outlined it but like specifically if you want to dig into the weeds of this prop at 21 and a half he's topped this line in four of his last five including the divisional round last year in the playoffs against the bucks where he only had two catches for 24 yards um in that spot so he he topped it in that one and again most of those in four of the last five were like limited snap share limited target share but last week 94 of the routes run uh on groff's drop backs five catches on nine targets.

And then the matchup specific stuff to bucks allowed the fourth highest rate of explosive pass plays on the league last season. Not last week against the commanders. They really weren't a team to take advantage of it, but they actually did have some deep ball shots to top bowls, loves to blitz. And then obviously you blitz, you leave the secondary exposed. You don't get home and you're

right for the picking and now you have a secondary this year that doesn't have carlton davis he's actually in detroit he's his teammate now and now you have uh antoine winfields arguably the best safety in the entire league primarily plays deep to stop this kind of stuff he's out he hurt his foot last week uh so absolutely premier spot for Jamo to actually hammer here, can get golf over at the same time. So love Jamo over 21 and a half. All in. Keep it going, Slop.

Yeah. All right. Well, I mean, you know what I'm doing. The only question is, like, how high do you go? And right now going right now. 50 plus it's plus one 10. Oh, it's minus one Oh two.

And I was, it was just plus one. So, I mean, we're going to go a little higher. I did 50 plus, plus one, plus one 10 this morning,

but it was just there. So one of you guys just did that. So you guys must've been talking about James when I was gone, but yeah yeah well you go 70 plus plus 215 that's not crazy i'm telling like that was not a fluke i know that was his first 100 yard game ever but that wasn't that's not a fluke dude like that guy is legit and with sun god out there laporta there's you know you really got to kind of pick your poison when you play them. Now, on top of that, like Tampa might be like a baby pass funnel too.

So there is that. Maybe they also put up points on Detroit, so now we can get a little shootout going. Like this has everything you need for J-Mo, you know, to go as high as you want him to go. But, I mean, 70-plus, plus 215 feels relatively safe. I mean, if you want it to go but I mean 70 plus plus 215 feels relatively safe I mean if you wanted to 100 plus it's plus 520. that's not ridiculous no that's not like it's not yeah especially if you like the Bucks right to your point like we you know we get the Bucks to

push back a little bit and you know that's that's definitely right for the pick and it kind of feels like they've always been a little bit in this this area that todd bowles team's kind of been a pass funnel squad anyway like the run d is never like i mean they've had a couple years where they were elite i don't think it's an elite run d this year per se but um they definitely especially without without winfield in the back ends carl davis has gone to young secondary um so yeah i mean i think it's good enough run d wise you know what i mean like it's one of those where you're like all right yeah they're not bums you know i'm just gonna run all over them but the same time like they're not yeah they're not the best unit in the nfl so we give them baby pass funnel just a little boy pass funnel yeah but that's good enough for jamo good enough for jamo

jamo golf all tied together uh absolutely absolutely love it with some of the big play stuff. I think the big play stuff works better for Goff too here, just in case the game gets sideways a little bit and you have like a lower attempts thing and it becomes like a lot of Damon Montgomery. Like the big play stuff that JMO can do is going to help Goff get there as well. So love how it's all kind of tied together. All right, so that's three bets.

We're off 12 minutes in. We only got three bets. Yeah, the pleasant Well, I mean, 12 minutes in, we already got three bets. Yeah. The trees at the top and we bam. Boom. See, it's not a good thing though, because it's going to leave more time for us to make just wild parlay. So maybe it's good.

Maybe it's not a good thing. I don't know, but we'll see. We want some though. Last, last week we had Tim came in here, the Lazard and Mike Williams uncorrelated parlays. I need like, like I need air. We were bed nose in the Discord. We were taking Mike Williams under two and a half receptions

and then Lazard three, four, five receptions because obviously they were somewhat correlated but not prices correlated. And they all smashed. Shout out to Tyrod and Rogers for just force-feeding Lazard even though he stinks. All right, well, back to the top, Connor. We've all shared one. and Rodgers for just force-feeding Lazard, even though he stinks. So that was tough. All right, well, back to the top, Connor. We've all shared one.

People can make a same-game parlay with that if they like. You can't typically add longest reception to same-game parlays, but I think obviously you want to splash a little bit like Slott did with some alts on JMO. I think that makes a ton of sense. So, Connor, back to you. I feel like last year we were kind of doing like you know normal stuff bonkers normal stuff let's just get all the normal stuff out of the way yeah we'll come back at the end and we'll just start you know shooting from the hip so give me another normal one connor the issue is that a lot of my like bonkers ones like involve

the normal stuff now you know so like yeah i get it like that's what i worry about because then i'm like well you know i don't want the the chat going off and then blowing up the line here before we all get a little piece. Do whatever you want. All right. All right. So I'm going to, I'm going to rip another over and alt here. So I'm going with Debo Samuel over 52 and a half receiving yards,

over 70 receiving yards and DK over 90 and a half receiving yards. So this is, I mean, pretty deep in the weeds here, but you guys are gonna have to bear with me. Vikings under Brian Flores play a ton of two-eye safety. Looks like 83% play a ton of zone, 81% in week one. Also bring a lot of zone blitzes and they play great run defense. So I don't think that we're gonna see Jordan Mason

do what he did to the Jets or Christian McCaffrey if he plays. But per Rich Rebar, this is a great stat. Samuel been targeted on 28% of his route skin zone, only 17% against man. When he faces zone blitzes, he averages 2.3 yards per route run, which is like wildly high. And then against two high safety looks, which again, the Vikings play a ton of, he leads the 49ers in target share with 26%. We saw Ayuk last week still shaking off the rust a little bit from the hold in.

Didn't really look all that good. Um, and now we get a Vikings matchup here. That's like prime for Debo to smash. I also don't think they're going to use them as much as a runner. I like the more that I thought about it just because Jordan Mason looks so good. Like I think when like early, early in the game, they're using them a lot. And then like Jordan Mason just was smashing and they're kind of like, eh, we don't really need to use Debo that much.

I maybe two, three, four carries in this game, but not like 10 or whatever you saw last week. So I think we see a ton of Debo, kind of like a drag route, short to intermediate spaces. And I think the upside here is just like massive. So I bet the over, I bet alts. I'm very much in on Debo this week. Yeah, I like that too. I think that's a great note.

And that's one thing that Flores, everything, they blitz a ton, but it's always zone behind them. They actually played the highest rate of zone in the league last week um that's so you know some teams what's a lot and it's man um typically uh yeah that's but that's not what floor is that so that's a great great call out uh like like the weeds call out there uh what do you got there slop any any thoughts on uh on debo here i because i was talking to connor early in the week. I'm like, why don't we wait for total yards, see if we can get something once we know for sure what's going on with CMC.

But I think going after receiving stuff alone is still pretty spot on. No, you can do it. I did 15-plus rushing yards Monday night. Nice. And that was before CMC. I did not know. I just got lucky, I guess. Because I was like, yeah, they're probably going to throw him in, let him go.

I didn't know that they liked the Mason kid that much either. So that was a total luck call. And then he ended up rushing I don't know how many times, like six or seven times for 20-something yards. I was like, okay. But he's obviously involved. So if there's no CMC, which there's probably not, because they knew Friday that he wasn't going to play.

So when you think about it, how close could you possibly be if it was like three days before the game and they knew, like, yeah, you're not playing? So there's a – I don't know. You've got to get speculative, but that's what we are, right? We're speculators. So why wouldn't you bet on that? But, yeah, anything Tebow. Because anything close to the line of scrimmage, I mean, we are right we're speculators so why wouldn't you bet on that you know but yeah anything people

like because they're anything close to the line of scrimmage i mean its receptions are probably in play too not just the yards for sure especially if you think the game state is interesting right another place where if you think that minnesota's live a little bit here then there's a shot for this to you know they won actually this this game last year they won uh at home against the niners so it's not like you know inconceivable that the vikings can show a pulse here and and compete so yeah i mean shanahan shot that down so quick too like you know what are you god how does someone know that he's out next week when we just determined that he was out this week but it seems like a spot where maybe they they take it easy with them too but yeah i think again cmc stuff aside i think the the debo stuff is kind of a banger.

So good analysis, Connor. What do you got, Slop? I'm going to say Devontae Adams, 60-plus receiving yards. It's plus 106 now. It was plus 108 earlier. But it's Devontae Adams. Like, he looked good last week. He was right there.

I mean, it's 59 yards. I think the tight ends are probably in more trouble against Baltimore, like the Raiders, than the receivers. I think if you're going to move the ball, especially as an eight-and-a-half-point underdog, you're going to have to do it with Devontae Adams, and he's more than capable to do it. I'll steal your line.

You're betting on talent here because that's basically what you're doing. You're betting on talent, and Devontae Adams is still an elite receiver. They're a, what, eight, nine-point dog. I don't think they're going to win the game. I don't think they're going to be that competitive, but at the same time, just, dude, you're in a trailing game script literally the entire day, and it's Devontae Adams, and all you need is 60 yards.

Bad plus money. I'm in. I'll do that 10 out of 10 times. Yeah, I like it, Connor. I got maybe have another same game parlay to come behind it, but I'll get, let you talk about, uh, Devante first. What are your thoughts? Yeah, I think it's a, it's an interesting look because I mean, like you said, like he's talented. He's going to see a lot of targets.

I think the Raven secondary, I think it looks like Nate Wiggins is going to miss. Right. Um, so I think that there's some potential issues too. Like I think we were wanting to be a little bit lower on that defense that still, I think is probably pretty good, but it's not as good as they were, you know, in years past. So, uh, I don't know. I mean, I'm interested in how this Raiders past game shakes out. We saw Brock Bowers draw a ton of targets early our last week. I don't know if that's sticky week to week.

We saw Jacoby Myers basically get none. Um, I mean, Gardner Minshew still sinks, but it's good enough to get the ball to Devante Adams. So yeah, I think 60 plus at plus money Is not a bad look Especially after what Rice did to him last week Yeah for sure You know what I mean

I mean yeah I think game states matter a lot And that's why I'm going to stay In the same game And give you the other side of it And that's sorry slop this is not typically uh you know my lane this is a joint play with connor connor's in it with me we're going under we're gonna go under on lamar jackson pass attempts okay um oh here's the thing before you go too much yeah like over on derrick hen Henry rush attempts. Oh, there we go.

Yeah. Yeah. I think this is an under I can get behind. Okay. Yeah, just a different, you know, same thing, it's a different way. You know, looking at this a little bit, and Connor and I came to this separately and talked about it,

and we both liked it, so we're on it together. But, like, pretty clear trend line that makes just a ton of sense when you look at how Ravens games have gone and what happens with Lamar Jackson's passing attempts. It is not like super complicated. I went back and looked at basically all the game logs and thinking about what happened in those games. And when you have a situation where the Ravens were typically big favorites, like they are here, like eight point favorites or scenarios where in the second half of the game they totally had control, like you had win probabilities north of 70%

late in the game. He didn't even come close to 30 in a lot of them. Like week one last year, they both raced Houston, 22 attempts. Week four against DTR and the Cleveland Browns, they crushed them 19 attempts. Next couple games really close, barely over. The next five games, they pummeled everybody. They won by at least a touchdown. Most attempts that he had in that five-game span was 27.

We need him to stay under 30 here. And then next two spots, really close games. They needed a late fourth quarter Zay Jones touchdown to beat the Chargers. They went to OT against the Rams. He went over in both those games. They needed like a late fourth quarter Zay Jones touchdown to beat the Chargers. They went to OT against the Rams. He went over in both those games. Next two weeks, pummel the Jags, pummel the Dolphins, 24 and 21. There's one instance all season long last season when this didn't hold, and that was on Christmas night when they crushed the Niners. He barely went over, but it was a scenario where they kind of had control of the whole game and they threw a little

bit more than normal. So I absolutely love it here. And also too, when you think of actually how these teams match up, the Raiders are good up front. They have a good defensive line. They have a good pass rush. And I have massive concerns about the Ravens offensive line being able to hold up and protect Lamar all season long. So like it's actually a pretty good run blocking offensive line. So schematically the best way for them to kind of dictate this game is to run the football anyway. Right. So there's so many reasons why I think this makes a ton of sense. So FanDuel minus one 14, this is readily available, you know, everywhere at Builder, DraftKings, Caesars, MGM, no matter what,

Connor, anything you want to add to it? No, I think you nailed it. I think it was what I looked at was like not under in what nine of 14 wins, I think last year in total. And so again, like, and that doesn't even factor under in what nine of 14 wins, I think last year in total. And so again, like, and that doesn't even factor in like how big of the wins, like how,

you know, like any of that stuff, I mean, we're getting in a situation here where I would just be pretty surprised to see the Ravens fall into negative game script, which is what we need to see Lamar, like slinging a lot, even neutral game skip,

they're going to run the ball plenty. So it's like, it's one of those things where I don't envision that happening. I think on another side of the ball too, we saw the Raiders, like even despite literally the chargers last week were number one in like run, stop win rate or something like that. Or it was like, like early down run stopping. Um, I mean, even then, like the, the Raiders were able to like move the ball a little bit, but it was like run, run, pass, run, run, pass. And they were able to sustain drives. And like, it led to like the chargers having like 50 plays basically. Um, and so if you get the Raiders holding onto the ball a little bit but it was like run run pass run run pass and they were able to sustain drives and like it led to like the chargers having like 50 plays basically um and so if you get the the raiders holding onto the ball at all like you know like literally just at all um you're probably

getting like again minimal play volume on both sides here which is which is exactly what we want yeah love it so is that okay that's beautiful all right buddy i think they just need henry yeah i mean i don't i don't see why you wouldn't try that you know what i mean like it doesn't Is that okay? That's beautiful. All right, buddy. I think they just beat Henry. Yeah. I mean, I don't see why you wouldn't try that. You know what I mean? Like, it doesn't – I don't know. It feels right. Where are we at on Henry Carey's 17, 18?

Probably higher than that, actually. Let's see. Rush attempts. We got a good question here in the chat too um from great um he said how do you all handle under lamar passen with henry over rush attempts are they so tightly correlated that we should always add the add the henry leg or how do you think about that um personally i don't parlay stuff um until it's necessary or like i think we have a massive edge in this sense.

It depends on if you're paying a correlation tax too. I haven't done it. I do think that they are somewhat correlated for sure. So like if you're not paying correlation tax, which again, like you should just go to a parlay calculator, type in the two odds independently, and then you can see if whether or not the odds are the same as what you're getting or not. If they're worse than you're paying it, some kind of correlation tax.

So like, if you're not being a correlation tax, I would say I would definitely play it, but it's not like an always play it type of thing. Like I would definitely still play the straights and then parlay it maybe for like, I don't know, a quarter unit or less. If you,

if you feel really strong about it. Yeah. Fandle, you cannot parlay the rushing attempts and i don't know they won't do it so um i don't know about draft kings but typically jackings will definitely definitely make you pay the tax on it um so yeah i think it's a really good question there's obviously systemic risk though like the raiders just bought them out so so bad that there's just a shit ton of plays for the Ravens, right? And they run 70 plays, and you were directionally correct,

but you're going to be a loser because that just – and that can happen too. So, you know, I think that's actually basically, like, that could be a way to summarize all parlays, right? Like, it's just why you – especially uncorrelated things or things from other games, like, you hate to be right and and not get rewarded for it so i think it's a fair question but um yeah i think it's a it's a spot where it makes a ton of sense so um all right connor what do you got you got anything uh keep going whatever you're gonna do normal

alts ladders whatever you got see i have nothing i have nothing else i only had two i have like six other plays that i'm sitting on that like i don't know like i go back and forth i will say like i just need to give like a i mean we just need to address it here like if malik willis throws for 175 passing yards i'm going to be on the streets like this is like um i mean i let's just go through this real quick so we have malik willis who was just traded from the titans two weeks ago. I think it was like late August, August 27th or August 28th. Who's now starting in his first career game as a Packer in a game against the Colts.

I would be shocked. We've so far, I've seen Malik Willis throw for 99, 80 and 50 yards as a passer in his three starts in the NFL. He's completed like a little over 50% of his passes. He has been absolutely dreadful. He takes sacks one out of every five drop backs. So that means if he has 25 drop backs or he's going to be sacked five to six times, which Newton, I'm sure you're licking your chops on the defensive side.

I mean, it has to be coming here. I just, I would be flabbergasted if they're, if they're dropping this guy back 30 to 35 times here, even in negative game script. I just feel like they're going to figure something else out. And so I like 165 passing yards. We have 139 projected from our guy who does projections, who is a Packers fan, John Paulson, who like, I mean, he's not like, you know, biased always, but like for a Packers fan John Paulson who like I mean he's not like you know biased

always but like for the Packers he looks at things with a rose color rose colored glass I'd say all the time um and there's a tendency for those passing props or projections to be a little bit heavy yep our passing props always skew high like our passing projects always skew high um I just I do not understand where this number comes from like Like he has shown nothing, nothing in the NFL to prove he's a competent passer at all. Like 0%. He's like probably the 55th to 60th best quarterback in the league. Um, if that, so I just don't get it. Um, again, I bet the under at open, I bet the alt under 150.

I think that's still viable. Um, I just think that they're going to run the ball, telling Jacobs, probably get Jaden Reed involved a bunch, probably, you know, run Malik Willis a bunch. And he's winding up with like maybe 20,

25 passing attempts for a buck 25. Which would be a career high by a lot. A career high. Yeah. Is it playable current lines? Absolutely. Yeah. I just already have way too much at one in 74, one 75 and every pick a map. Um, I honestly, I said to Stu monotone today, I said,

book of Connor, you know, Connor sports book here would line this at like 150 passing yards, 26 pass attempts and whatever, 13 completions. And that's still might be too high to be honest. So I love it. That's a good question too. How are the Colts only minus two? We touched on this at length on our Wednesday show with, with Ed Fang. Look, they were like minus four and a half or it was like Packers minus four and a half and look at headlines.

Right. And they, they showed a pulse against an Eagles team that I think people really respect. So it's really hard for any sort of model, algorithm, whatever line setting situation you're looking at to move it that far, right? Through three, through zero, again, at some point back through three again, that's just unprecedented to have a line move seven points on a road team that's coming off of a week one loss right so it's just

that's like almost the algorithm can't handle that much of an adjustment because it's just kind of unprecedented so that's part of it right like in connor's point i think on the show was that if you're making like a matchup based um you know take and analyzing the game it's hard not to think that the Colts, anything less than three is the right side. And I kind of agree with that. So yeah, it's, you know, they not a great secondary. They lost their best corner too.

But again, Malik Willis is not the guy that's going to pick on the Colts and make them be punished for losing Juju Brents. It would have to be like, I'm getting like, my only nervous reaction here is like, I'm getting like Anthony Richardson, Shane Steichen flashbacks from two years ago. But that was a player who had the entire preseason and off season to play with him in a system that I think was, is very quarterback friendly. Like guys are just running open. They're giving him gimme's like Jordan love was a straight up disaster for the first half of last season until they figured out how to make him hum. Like we think in two weeks of practice that they're just going to figure out how to make Malik Willis and NFL quarterback. Like, I don't, I don't know. I just, I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. The discourse online is very strange. I was getting shit from a Packers beat reporter and I had to like, kind of be like

respectfully, I disagree with everything you're saying, but know he hit me with the uh you know the Talladega Knights Jeff it's like the just because you say respectfully doesn't mean you can say whatever you want uh I thought that's how it works literally how exactly how it works oh man um no offense no offense yeah respectfully that is a terrible answer. You know, like that's, that's just, he's just not good.

That's his biggest problem. Like, you know what I mean? Like he's just not good. And that's, it happens. You know what I'm going to do? I mean,

he's a world-class athlete, not a great quarterback, not, not even going. Correct. So, and that's what happens. Like,

so, but the problem for him is he plays quarterback. So yeah, it's kind of, it's one of those things, you know? Yeah. And then they asked what's the percent chance he gets benched.

Um, I don't know, 25%. I mean, you know what that depends on? Not even him. It depends on the other guy. You know what I mean?

Like Clifford. Yeah. Yeah. Um, yeah, I don't't know it's not great they like willfully put themselves in the situation too by going out and trading for him late in the season to say hey no this is a guy this is a guy we're gonna have behind uh jordan love which is a tough tough scene so yeah almost got slopped interested on and under there connor you did a good job selling that i know know I would go cold chovers rushing. Yeah.

What about Josh Jacobs rushing attempts? That's pretty low. Honestly, I was eyeing that. Yeah. You have to go attempts though. Can't go yards. I was thinking about that earlier today.

The kids, man, that could be a 15 for 35 days. You know what I mean? Like, looks like no DeForest Buck buckner though for the colts which definitely helps that definitely helps jacob's uh case but again it's another situation where there's overall offensive systemic risk of they run 35 plays and it's like it just is

there's ball control on the colt side and you want to have you know colts rushing instead of you know anything tied to the packers uh but like yeah the packers receivers are still probably too high too the only problem with that is you know catch and run defender falls uh you know don't mention someone trips on a sprinkler right like that's a those are those are your outs for like someone breaking a big play and then you're then you're holding your breath a little bit. So yeah, it's. I love that. Yeah. Yeah. We got to set the line for Willis rushing yards or his passing yards.

Well, right now it's only 30 rushing yards. And then what is like 170 passing yards. So they're lining at 140. I'll line it at a hundred to passing yards, more a hundred more passing yards than rushing yards, which that might be too much. I'll go, you know, sharp money came in. We're looking at 90 now. There you go. 89.5.

If anyone wants a side action for Connor, find him on Twitter. So, Asala, what else you got? Anything else? Is it starting to get weird? Kind of. Greg Dortch, four plus receptions, plus 146. I'm checking it right now to make sure it's still there. I'm just looking at my bets on FanDuel.

So just give me one second. And it looks like four plus receptions, 140. So we're in the neighborhood. Yeah, that's good. I think he catches four balls. That's my analysis. I think that he's more involved. That's what I think happens.

I mean, when you kind of look at things, I think the Cardinals do get behind. I think the Rams are good. I think this game could be a back-and-forth type thing. You saw the Rams be able to move the ball in Detroit, so there was that. Yeah, that's all I got. I mean, they're going to have to throw it, and Dortch is somebody that Murray obviously likes because if you watch Sunday – I mean, I know they're trailing,

so there is that, but there's the same exact games they could break out this week. So it's not like they're playing somebody different. It could be the same situation. So even if it's not, I still think he catches four. I like it. You could have stopped it. I think he catches four balls.

Yeah, no, I mean, that's what I think. That's all I know is I think he catches four balls. I mean, 70% route participation in week one, Connor. Like, that's pretty good. That's like a good threshold for pass-catching tight end. So he's, you know, didn't get a lot of targets, but he's in the mix. Yeah. Didn't they – so the Rams had two offensive linemen cleared to play, right,

this week. Havenstein is back, right? Like, I thought he was out for sure. I thought there was multiple guys out. Well, they put other guys on the IR, but Havenstein is is back all right like i thought he was out for sure i thought there was multiple guys out well they put other guys on the on the ir but i havenstein is back which is good because the the guy aj seer whatever whoever was in i hear like a it's like pff pass blocking grade was single digits i don't know how many times i've ever seen that single digits he allowed pressure on like almost half of his snaps. I mean, it was like, is this guy going to be pulling again?

The problem was because I was trying to find Cardinals sacks, but the Cardinals don't get any sacks. They have the worst team to take advantage of that. So I was trying to find that and didn't even, you know, wasn't even going to work. But, yeah, that guy was – They pulled his guy from Bishop Sycamore or whatever? Or where did they find this guy?

He was stuck. Like the Malik Willis of offensive tackles, basically. Oh, boy. Say no more. I mean, this is, you know. Not great. That's tough. Yeah, but also Stafford gets the ball out so quick.

Like he's like, I mean. For sure. His first read is like within a second of, you know, the line of scrimmage there. I also think that if they feel good about the offensive line, I think they're going to try and go run heavy right off the rip. I really do. I mean, they ran 34 and 28 times last year against the

Cardinals. Um, they felt that that was, I mean, they clearly felt last year that was their advantage. They might feel the same way this year. I don't know, obviously, but if they do, we'll see how it goes. I could lead to some interesting game, like them just doing nothing for like a quarter and a half until they're like, all right, fuck it. We got to throw every play. Um, in which case you can probably live bet some, some Rams receiving overs at that point, if they really do try and go run heavy and like, aren't good. Or if they're good, then I don't know.

Live bet Cardinals linebackers. Yeah, yeah, exactly. Live bets and tackles. Yeah. Because they, they're like, we've touched on it all the time. Like the Rams are very much a game script dependent team. They are a little hard pre-flop to bet because they will be kind of dictate based off of the matchup and what's going on in terms of being,

it'll be very run heavy if it's the right fit for them. Or we saw last week, it just was, you know, 21 targets to Cooper cup and stop it to you. So you can't, and the game ended, like they didn't actually,

the Lions never actually stopped and the game just kind of ended. So yeah, that's, that's a good live betting opportunity for the week, I think for sure. Whatever's going on in that game. I got one more, but I'm trying to figure, I'm ready to rip, but I'm trying to figure out how to actually bet it. So I'm going to hold off,

probably be sent to subscribers. There's a couple of different ways to play it. I'm not quite sure exactly. But one thing I really wanted today, I'll give this a little tease for people. It's not currently out because we're waiting on the status of russell wilson i want justin fields rushing overs justin feels rushing ladders um whatever we can do there denver played man at the fifth highest rate in the league last week. Geno had a 34-yard run, which Geno Smith had a 34-yard run. He's not not mobile, but he's not like I got 34-yard runs in my bag kind of mobile.

Fields 14 attempts last week, 10 design runs and four scrambles. Pittsburgh lowest pass rate over expectation in the league. This is who they want to be um against denver the game script's not going to get out of hand here i think there's just no way that fields isn't topping like double digit runs so like rushing attempts over is going to be fantastic alt overs on that you know longest whatever we want to do for for fields i think this is what he's going to do and i think it's a great look and a great place to go after it so you know correlated some uh alex singleton tackles and uh and fields rushing props i think make a ton of sense together so fields i want it

yeah i was thinking about some um have they posted george pick props yet? I think so. Because it was like weirdly not out for a while. And, you know, yeah, I don't see any. My angle is under, but like under on receptions, probably not receiving yards, which might, I don't know. We'll see what the number's at because he's an absolute dog. So he probably gets shadowed. Yeah, he'll draw certain fan though. And he's getting passes from Justin Fields who stinks.

So like, if he's got someone good on him, like I just don't think he's going to see the ball that much, you know, like maybe five, six targets and half of them will be in the dirt, you know, and then other two will have to make like sick catches for.

So. Yeah. All right. I like those takes. All right, boys. Let's start to build some, some ladders, some same game parlays

uncorrelated parlays whatever we want to do here um i'll get some defensive stuff here at the end sacks went four and one on the show last week so if you tailed the five sack bets uh that i gave out you had a good week they were all plus money as well. We'll try to do it again. I got a lot of sack looks this week. Uncorrelated slop, I'll give you the floor first. What do we got? Or whatever you want to do. Ladders, whatever you got. I mean, you almost got to throw J-Mo

in there just to have him. I mean, you have to, right? You got to do something. Yeah. So, I mean, we can start there, but that shouldn't count, though. You know what I mean? Yeah, no, that's built in. He's just already in. Yeah.

Like the underwear in a swimsuit, you know? Literally. Jump in the show. It's right. It holds you tight. I know we already said this guy's name, but why not, like, go off three-plus touchdowns plus two 30, just because,

I mean, I don't, are they going to be able to run it in on the Buccaneers? You know, I'm getting their defensive stats right now, but I, I don't think so. You know what I mean?

So they're still going to score though, the lines, and they still have multiple options when they get into the red zone that involve golf throwing and not Montgomery running. So for that say, I mean, plus two 30 for three, it's not like he's never done that before. Yeah, I'm into it. So what do we want to go for Jameson? 80 yards, seven, 90 more. What do, what are you thinking slop? I would say, I would say we'd have to go pretty big because we want this to be, you know. We want to make a million, right?

We want to get to a million? Yeah, we want to get to a million. I mean, I'll give you another one. You guys are going to hate. I know it for a fact. But, yeah, last year the Bucs gave a 23 passing touchdown. That's not terrible. So there is that.

But at the same time, it is golf, and I don't think they can run it in. I think they're going to have to throw it. So, yeah, we're sticking with it. So J-Mo 90-plus and then golf three-plus touchdowns. All right. That's a good place to start. I mean, it feels right, right? Last season, the Buccaneers, five rushing touchdowns to running backs.

That's it. Nobody gave a plus. No one gave a plus. But, again again i still think they get scored on they're not like we already said they're not elite so uh monotone calls it out in the chat here connor we can bring this back add another leg here um mcmillan talking about him as an uncorrelated parlay guy let's let's bring that into the fold here a little bit uh jalen mcmillan i think he had like a i was looking at him to 17 and a half 18 yard averaged at the target last week mostly ran out of the slot uh his line as is is too short probably 29 and a half and probably a pass heavy game script this kid can play like

this is you know like he's good legit all right legit good i'm watching out of the slot here yeah you know i think definitely considered the third guy in washington but i don't think that's even fair i think they're all that's not yeah that's not his fault yeah the other two were just were just yeah so so what can we get we threw a 40 plus on mcmillan a 50 plus on mcmillan with again the 18 yard average of the target in the first game again i know that was the commanders but that's how you're going to have to attack the lions as well that's how um you know they were attacked all last year it's a better secondary but that's how stafford attacked them last week too so what happens connor if we had mcmillan at like 50 plus well do you do you want the uncorrelated or do you

want just 50 plus? Which is, yeah. What's his reception line? Two and a half? Two, yeah. So it's two and a half. So I think 40 probably makes more sense if you want to do the uncorrelated.

If you want just the 50 plus, it's plus 240. I don't hate it. I don't know. I mean, that's the tough part here because we got, I mean, because if we got 40 plus and under

two and a half then we're we're looking at 196 to one already with the golf three plus and jameson 90 plus so we're we're getting pretty close to a million well not we're not close but like you know we're good start yeah yeah we're getting there so i like that. 40 plus. I agree. Sweet. Then we got to talk about our guy here, Noonan. I think the new uncorrelated king, at least for now, is going to be Xavier Worthy because they're lining his reception prop at three and a half. I don't think that this guy can earn targets to be honest.

Like, no, I mean, they kind of like his, his long touchdown was kind of, kind of bullshit. Like it was like some guy fell down or like, he was like,

I think just scheme basically wide open, super fast, obviously specifically in this game too. I think they run the ball a shitload and it's going to be run, run deep shot, which is like perfect for this. Cause he's going to see like three targets and they're all going to be run run deep shot which is like perfect for this because he's going to see like three targets and they're all going to be 50 yards downfield um and it's going to be electric so maybe he has a carry too that that's fine but did it last week had a 20 yard carry

whatever that's gonna count for them you know what i mean as like we got the ball in his hand you're saying so yeah like if it happens to be two extra rushes and not throws then there's no chance he's catching four balls yeah i mean just by himself straight up on fan duel under three and a half receptions 70 plus it's plus 14 40. did you want to go under three and a half 70 plus is that that's uh we're ripping here i like i mean last week you had three touches for 68 yards so we're almost there you know what i mean um so you know two catches for 47 yards one rush for 21 yards so you know obviously we need a little bit more juice than that but against the bangles i think we can get it love it um all right cool so we are up to um we need

like one more juicy leg here. I got a few. Can I give you another one in the same game? I'll give you another, I'll give you the Bengals side of this. All right. All right. So Jamar Chase is rookie year, ADOT 12.9 yards. I just, just cooking people downfield.

Dip next year, more normal, 9.8, still alpha. Last year, 9..8 still alpha uh last year 9.1 still really elite last week versus new england's 6.3 yards averaged up to target it's just it's not a guy that's just moving the chains right um i think they're gonna be able to they're gonna without t higgins they're gonna scheme definitely to take everything in front of him, take Chase out of play. I think he's gone under his line here the last couple times against them. Over 6.5 receptions, under 71.5 yards for Jamar Chase. By itself, it's like 7-1.

Just with Worthy alone, it's 115. So if you just wanted the four legs of Worthy and Chase, it's 115-1 on one on fandle uh but we throw it in with the uh detroit stop it might get pretty wonky here yeah we're at uh i don't even know what this number is at this point to be honest but um well every three is a comic connor that's true i mean we're like let's hear i think it's like 40 bucks to win a million so we still need a little bit more we got to get that down to like i think five bucks or less yeah burrow can throw two touchdowns i mean he could throw three all right three's 450 but i mean two is plus 118 which feels kind of like i don't know i mean lamar had one against him last week i mean that was kind of a fluky one yeah the likely one i mean

he beat somebody and ran it in but i mean i don't know jamar chase is pretty good and i think we've all heard of him heard of him heard of me two touchdowns especially in the situation there and the oh and one thing i definitely buy into you know what i mean in terms of like you're just going to get a team that's ready you know like a lot of times. Yeah. We also might've just sent J-Mo to the shadow realm. He's questionable. He's playing. That's just gamesmanship, guys. Yeah.

He's always playing. Are we all questionable? I don't know what's happening tomorrow. When you think about it, yeah. That's very deep, Conan. So I'm saying. We're all a little bit questionable. We're all day to day.

The two plus passing touchdowns for borough. Or do we want, um, I got more spice, Connor. Do you have more spice? You get more spice first. We don't got to go dive into the borough.

I mean, I would love a Debo alt. Um, if we can contribute that, like not even that crazy, maybe 70 plus, like we don't, we don't need that much more.

We need like a plus two, 300, something like that. Um, let's see here we get i mean if we go debo 100 plus then we're the odds are broken it won't even let me do that um 90 won't let me do 90 uh well let's see here even better it's making us money saving us like you don't have to do all that for a milli yeah just we'll just keep it down here just have to do 60 yards it's fine yeah oh it's this whole thing is like it's pretty difficult to get like directly at a milli here like that's what like the annoying part is you know it's oh well just put um one million in the to win box yeah why did you add a bunch of zeros. Okay. That brings up what the risk would be.

So we're at 698 to win a million now with Debo 100 yards, which obviously, guys, I will tweet this whole thing out after, you know, attach it to the show so that way everyone can tell. I think we're pretty good here. Do we want to add anything else? I mean, 698's solid, but. I got more legs. I got more stuff.

I'm ready to fire today. Yeah. I have a couple more things that I like more legs. I got more stuff. I'm ready to fire today. I have a couple more things that I like a lot. It's going to be 25 cents to get a million. Just a straight up ladder or just an alt line. Another one that Monotone touched on there in his message to us too. Shahid, absolute dog, 59-yard catch in the first play of the game for the Saints. He is 80-plus receiving yards on Caesars is like 6-1.

I don't know what the FanDuel number is because I think you're building on FanDuel. 80-plus, what did he have last week? He was almost there and barely played in the fourth quarter, 26% target per outrun, 20-yard average depth of target against, you know, they're like seven-point dogs against a beat-up. Again, I know they looked good last week, but this is not a full-strength secondary for Dallas.

He can take some shots there too. So 80-plus for Shahid, I think, is pretty nice. Again, you don't have to get too wonky or any uncorrelated stuff there, too, but just adding some alts on him is nice. But I got one more uncorrelated that I love, too. Oh, my. All right. We might break Vandal if I put that in there. It might be

like 10 cents to win, but let's hear it. Maybe we can slim down anything, too. Yeah, maybe we can bring Debo down to like 70. Yeah, that's true, too. We can bring him down a little bit. All right to like 70 or something. Yeah, that's true too. We can, yeah, we can bring him down a little bit.

All right. So what's your, what's your last one? Let's hear it. Averaged up to target for Houston receivers last week. And these guys all played basically 85 to 90% of the snaps on Straub's dropbacks. So they were all cooking.

Nico 16.3 tank Dell 16.6. Right. The guys were getting taken shots. Steph digs 1.7. Steph diggs what's he doing this is what six targets caught all of them 33 yards his longest reception went for 10 yards so steph diggs over four and a half receptions under 53 and a half receiving yards he literally did this by margin last week uh it's basically six to one so uh however you want to play that i'm play it by itself uh i might want to bring some bears back in their side i have to see what's going on no bears some of the bear stuff's not out

yet because we're waiting on the rome situation but like dj more had like a 4.4 a dot last week which is really weird that might change if rome is not playing. Maybe they need to push the ball down the field more with him, but, uh, yeah, I don't know. I like the, uh, the dig stuff here quite a bit under four and a half or over four and a half under 53 and a half. Yeah, this is, uh, this is pretty good here. Um, I like it actually. That's a great look. I know that, um, prop bomb played his under at 53 and I was looking at that. I think that's pretty solid. Like he's under just for straight yardage. Um, I think that Prop Bomb played his under at 53, and I was looking at that. I think that's pretty solid. Like his under just for straight yardage. I think that was a pretty interesting look there.

Like we're at 52 cents to win a million. I think that'll do. I think that's low enough. You know, we can afford to place 52-cent bet. Placing it only 12 legs, guys, not a big deal. So that means five bucks to win 10 million is what you said? Yeah. Only let you win a million, that means five bucks to win 10 million is what you said yeah um see how we can get this to a billion um that would be electric um it'd be so fun but yeah a million bucks i mean that'll do i placed it i'll tweet it out here just to recap golf three

passing touchdowns jameson 90 yards mcmillan, uncorrelated, under 2.5, 40 yards. Worthy, uncorrelated, under 3.5, 70 yards. Chase, uncorrelated, under 71, over 6.5. Shahid, 60-plus. Samuel, 80-plus. Diggs, uncorrelated, under 53.5, over 4.5. Technically, three or four of them are uncorrelated, so it's actually only like eight legs.

So that's, you know. That's like a dinger parlay it's eight legs dude literally i mean we've seen eight things to happen basically i mean look a lot of you are watching right now imagine not having this bet you want to turn tune in next friday when the three of us are all millionaires and like people in the chat are. 52 cents. 52 cents. Vandal's not sure how they're going to operate in Q4 because we just absolutely are shutting them down. Robel would be all up in our DMs asking for articles.

It's going to be great. Be there with us you know i'll probably play a couple of these like for fun together anyway especially the uncorrelated ones especially the the golf ones just anyways because i do legit think that individually all the uncorrelated ones are pretty good looks and all you need is one of them to hit to pay off the rest um we hit a bunch of them last year and i mean they're they're just, the system's broken. You know, like, let's get it. Yeah.

I mean, four leggers. Yeah. You're not even getting too crazy with some of these. They're four legs and you're getting up to 100 plus to one. I mean, that's pretty bonkers. You don't need a bunch of stuff to happen. You don't need a 12-leg Moneyline parlay that you're laying $600,000, $800,000 on the win to take home crazy amounts of money. So, yeah, let's do it.

Do you guys want to – looks like we – Slop, you have seven minutes here for an hour or you got to wrap up? I got seven. All right. Let's rip through some questions here. We normally do this a little more, but we got a little excited here with our million-dollar parlay. So, all right. Jonathan S., props 414, 23 units week. One. Wow. Shout out Jonathan. That's better than I did. That's, you know, good, good to you. Um, Tim hole. Uh, let's see here.

Boys must be working in the OT in the lab, churning out these props. Um, I mean, that's good. That's that's slop. Uh, slop was brushing his hair. There you go. That was the, all the delay here before the show. Um ready, baby. Noonan, any Wondell Robinson thoughts? 35 and a half? We only have like 11 targets last week. Yeah, great match. This will not surprise you, but my Wondell Robinson thoughts in the slot are Mikey Sanders shall tackles if they ever post that.

So, yeah, let's get it. Let's go. Oh, my gosh. Total's laughably low. CJ Stroud, 300 plus is's get it. Let's go. Oh, my gosh. Total is laughably low. CJ Stroud, 300-plus is free as it gets. Jeff, that seems like a slop take. Have you looked at any Stroud stuff, Slop? Not really.

I'm scared of passing props for the time being for quarterback because of what we talked about. I think pre-show. Something's happening, dude. Like, it might be the kickoff rule i'm guessing it is but like look at the passing yards last week two guys went 300 plus like that crazy town like that it's supposed to be a passing league you know what i mean like that's why i'm watching so yeah i would i would kind of hang out and just see what happens.

We'll just give it a couple weeks. You know what I mean? I mean, obviously we're going to keep betting, but I'll go with receivers rather than the quarterbacks themselves. Yeah, totally fair. Pacheco, 100-plus rushing. Yeah, I think definitely interested. TBD, trying to figure out the best way to play it.

I think Noonan and I are chatting on the side. Jonathan S., Malik Willis is not an NFL quarterback from Hunter. Huss, our sides and totals guy said that like on Tuesday or Monday which is fantastic so shout out to Hunter doing a great job there let's see here mixing over 17 and a half rushing attempts we talked about that a little bit you saw like all the work they said this week that they're going to keep feeding him new to any any mixing mix and take yeah I like it I do and play it 17 and a half is a lot but um you know i think they're in a good spot against the bears and uh especially if they don't

have rome and uh you know i think we're gonna see a better days for sure from uh from caleb williams but you know i think that they're this is a real team uh with the with the uh texans too so yeah i mean why would you not just continue to put in his belly yeah no for sure totally makes sense um willis will also get a fair amount of rush here talking about malik yeah it's also true that's another reason not to play the jacobs rushing over attempts i think my bags are packed in that game i just need to leave it alone and stop betting legal sunday otherwise i'm going to be pretty upset if someone breaks a long one um randomly uh let's see here mcmillan gabe davis two uncoordinated guys also cashed a heat last week shout out monotone uh crushing crushing that stuff

gabe davis is an interesting one too he saw like i don't know i guess brian thomas is more of like i think their number one target at this point and so gabe davis is probably a good uncorrelated look still i mean he was uncorrelated king of buffalo and so now uh if we're getting that same kind of usage, I'm in. Yeah. I think both those guys are, I think probably Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis and that being guys we touch on

at some point in this segment next year or later this year. Yeah. Um, Chris Papadopoulos. Oh, that's a fun name. Uh, any thoughts on Jalen Naylor,

Brandon Powell, both are aligned on legals at two and a half plus money to the under. Um, I like both overs. Honestly, I would need to dig into it more because Naylor didn't play much. He was injured. Brandon Powell played more last week. Naylor was playing over Powell, though.

It was like the clear number three. Addison's out. So how much does that change on a week? I'm going to have to dig in, see the practice board, see if there's any like coach speak on like how much Naylor's going to play because he's the move there. You can play overs on his receiving yards, I think. I just don't know what that is. I've waiting for that so definitely a good shout out definitely something to pay attention to yeah for sure that's a that's a good call up yeah last box score last week for both guys was it's not very exciting but

different dynamic love it um noonan any any sack stuff to take us home? Yeah, sacks. Laid one, it's dead. Can't do it. We want to get Alex Highsmith for the Steelers. He's going to come out. These are mostly DraftKings guys, to be fair. That's why I don't make them official plays because DraftKings is kind enough to line quarter sacks. So if a guy gets a half sack, we win. Most other places are booking full sacks or a half.

And then if he shares a sack, we push that. We don't want to push necessarily. But Highsmith's going to eat. We're going to have either no Garrett Bowles for Denver or beat up Garrett Bowles with a bad ankle. Highsmith is just a massive, massive – it's just a stud who underperformed last year, and I think we'll see that reflected in his line. Jalen Carter, Monday Night Football, up the middle against an absolutely

abysmal Falcons offensive line in Week 1. That was massively part of the problem that we saw going on there, part of why you saw, thankfully, a lot of Kirk in pistol and shotgun, stuff like that. I think Jalen Carter eats this week as well. We're going to go with Dorrance Armstrong for the Commanders. Again, we want to find a way to get home on Daniel Jones. Armstrong is the way.

Great week one. Nice fit here in the system coming over from Dallas. Knowing Dan Quinn's system well, I think he eats and gets on the board this week. Those are probably my three favorites. Maybe Jermaine Johnson as well would be my fourth. Jermaine Johnson from the jets. We know probably a lot of passing for Tennessee. Levis left to take sats.

Johnson's just a guy that I want to buy on year three, starting to make some, some steps forward. He's going to be out there all the time and he's going to get home. So Jermaine Johnson, Jalen Carter, Alex Highsmith, and Dorrance Armstrong all get on the board with sacks this week.

Love it. Let's ride. I know some people, I think Jen maybe par the board with Saks this week. Love it. Let's ride. I know some people, I think Jen maybe parlayed all them or someone else. A couple people parlayed them last week and made some 23, 24 to 1 hitters. It's nice. Good to see. Yeah. Also, I'm excited to tweet this out, this parlay out,

because usually I got Kanish, like Joey Kanish, in my mentions, like talking shit. But now I see he's like shilling some sports book in his own parlay. So, you know, eat it, Uncle K. You know, I don't want to hear it anymore. So no more trolling me now that he's, you know, shilling some books. Yeah. Disingenuous SOB.

Finally. We love it. All right. Parlays get such a bad name these days, dude. They just got to be big enough. And like I said, they got to be like insignificant enough risk-wise to not even matter. And to me, they're fun. You know what I mean?

They're scratch off at this point. It's on the shirt, Flop. It's on your shirt, buddy. Who cares? No big deal. Let it rip, man. Nice one. Love it.

All right. We're in the dot hour. Appreciate everyone hanging out with us again subscribe wherever you're watching four for four bets on the youtube channel move the line is the podcast in your podcast feed on friday evening subscribe to the show come back on fridays we'll do it again 3 p.m eastern next week and you can get the game by game previews 3 30 eastern on wednesdays as well if you want to bet side totals with us get a little bit more hand in the dirt football stuff as well so appreciate everyone hanging to bet side totals with us, get a little bit more hand in the dirt football stuff as well.

So appreciate everyone hanging out with us again, four, four.com slash plans. Get the betting sub for Connor and slop. I'm Ryan. We'll see y'all next week. Thanks everyone.