Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 2 PROPS | Top Prop Bets, Predictions & Picks

Episode Date: September 17, 2022

Experts Ryan Noonan, Connor Allen & Pat Mayo share their top Week 2 NFL player prop bets. Tail them as they hand out their top picks, highlight the best betting odds & share their predictions.Timestamps:0:00 Intro5:28 Connor Bet #1 7:33 Pat Bet #1  11:09 Ryan Bet #1 15:37 Connor Bet #2 17:00 Pat Bet #2 19:42 Ryan Bet #2 25:00 Connor Bet #3 28:12 Pat Bet #331:24 Ryan Bet #336:27 Connor Bet #438:35 Pat Bet #4 41:03 Ryan Bet #4 48:14 Thrive Props50:35 Q+A 54:55 PROP TOOL BET OF THE WEEK58:02 OUTRO Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansMove the Line: Prop Drop is sponsored by Thrive Fantasy. Use Promo Code PROPDROP when signing up & you will receive a 100% instant first deposit match up to $250 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3RQQHRuFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Betting on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4BetsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Pat on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ThePMEVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Prop Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TWC40v4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3pQ2tQ14for4 Player Prop Finder 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wxTcQc4for4 Player Prop Odds Comparison Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3AQ5TbK

Hello and welcome to Move the Line Prop Drop Show presented by Thrive Fantasy. I'm Ryan Noonan, and we'll be here every week in this space talking about the best way, the most profitable way, maybe not so much in week one, to bet on NFL football. And that's Player Props, live here 2 p.m. Eastern every Friday, giving our favorite player props and taking your questions. So if you are hanging out with us now on YouTube, subscribe so you don't miss a show and jump in the chat. Let us know your favorite prop of the week. Anything you're on the fence about, feel free to ask us about anything like that. We will try to get to it at the end of the show. Joining me as always on time this week and in his house, Connor Allen.

What's going on buddy? Yeah, it feels good to be back. You know, Vegas is only fun for a limited time there. And I was running on fumes about the time this show came around last week. excited to be back and i went three and one last week on the show you know i was i i got lucky there and i i'm feeling pretty good heading into week two better than you did on our thursday show which is good and better than i know i did last week so last week was rough for me uh you know we're no one wants to hear us about being on the wrong side of variance and running poorly we didn't have the best of luck last week anyway the travis at the end one was incredible like if people missed connor's tweet

like he had he was over he cleared by like six yards took a helmet on the ball got classified as a fumble or lost yardage the ball went flying out of bounds and lost never had another reception dropped the reception inside the five that could have gone over and that prop lost so tough scene for us but uh no one like i said wants to hear us bemoan about tough beats again joining us as always in the spot is the man behind the mayo media network and the pat mayo experience of course none other than the man himself pat mayo how we doing bud i'm already up money for the week can't lose on props because i played the reverse curse mike williams over everything and it cashed at 9-1. Can't beat that.

Feinberg didn't get his win, but maybe got his cover. He came on and joined us on the Thursday show last night, and we talked about taking the 4, 4.5 out there. So I know that's not going to help him with where he's at, but hopefully slept a little bit better with maybe some money in his pocket. Though I think he did tell us that he thought it was either money line or chiefs so maybe he didn't so i'm not sure i haven't checked in with him today but we'll see how that went but uh smart man taking the uh the mike williams over so that was not something they were going to see all season long with that fluky kind of week one stuff there so uh pat real quick remind the youtube viewers what they need to do to the like button they need to

smash that like button and gently caress the sub button to make sure that it sticks for you because that's what you need to do for 444football. Reminders we talked about there briefly. Two episodes of Move Align each week, both available here on YouTube. Available in podcast form wherever you consume podcasts. In addition to this, the Prop Drop show, we have a game preview show. Connor, John Daigle, and myself live 7 p.m. Eastern on Thursday nights podcast in addition to this the prop drop show we have a game preview show connor john dagle myself

live 7 p.m eastern on thursday nights leading into the thursday night football game so again subscribe so you don't miss that as well nine bets in there for week two for you to take action on um i think we have some pretty good leans this week feel good about week two so uh before we get started i want to tell listeners about our friends again over at Thrive Fantasy. And there's a great opportunity again in week two to make money. They chopped the contest size down basically in half, but they are still about 12% as we stand right now filling the week two contest. So good on them for adjusting, but everyone seems to be slow to act and get in over on Thrive. So you want to definitely check that out again if you're not familiar with thrive pretty straightforward it's a prop game

daily fantasy props you're basically choosing 10 of the 20 that they have available to build your lineup each prop has a fantasy value both of the over and under that's associated based on how likely it is to hit, hit the prop, rack up the points, and you can win. There is a $25 GPP up at the top. When you enter their promo code, prop drop, you're going to get a instant 100% first deposit match up to $250. It's great. So 250, you sign up instantly, you got $500 in your account, and you can bang that bad boy and help them fill it. Again, I didn't do very well last week, but just by entering a bunch of times, I won money. So I didn't have anything that was really in the mix, but it was a profitable week just because the overlay was massive. They filled about 60% of that contest.

So let's help them get a little bit closer. Also, if you entered last week and you beat Connor and I, which Connor basically brought up the rear, you probably beat him. So give us a screenshot, DM it at 444BETS on Twitter, at 444BETS. Give us a screenshot. Let us know you're in that contest and you'll get a entry over into the week two contest. We'll keep this going and hopefully we can fill it up and get a little bit closer. Again,

the overlay is going to be a thing again this week. So check it out. All right. We do live lines, everything available for you to bet on right now. No one here to give stale lines or goals to do the best that we can to get you the same line, same price as we are,

or as close to it. Again, hop in the chat, let us know anything that you want to get to at the end of the show. Connor, start us off week two. All right, let's get going here.

Going back to my favorite bet from last week, Mike Gusecki unders again. I'm surprised we're even seeing a line. Mike Gusecki under 20 and a half receiving yards available right now on points, but also available at draft Kings of FanDuel around 17, 16 and a half. He saw one target last week, which he caught for one yard played on 42% of the snaps. It's available right now on PointsBet, also available at DraftKings and FanDuel around 17, 16.5. He saw one target last week, which he caught for one yard.

He played on 42% of the snaps. And the Dolphins led the league in pass rate over expectation last week. So they were passing more than expectation, and he still only saw one target. He only ran 16 routes, was out-targeted by Durham Smith 2-1. So if you're looking at 20 yards, that means he needs probably three short catches catches, you know, maybe two intermediate, like 10 yard catches or one really long one. I don't really even see, think he sees more than one to two targets.

So if you're looking at this one, I like the under here a lot. You can also get plus money on under one and a half receptions. I think that's worth a sprinkle too. Maybe a half unit as well there, because again, there's a good chance that he sees two or fewer targets so all he has to do is only catch one of them and I like the under there as well yeah I almost lean under on the receptions versus the yardage just because you know he has shown and that's kind of why there's been any optimism on him since he's been the league is some I guess relative to his peers big playability but yeah I mean you're barely on the field like that um and barely getting targeted 6% target share. Not very great.

Pat, any thoughts on Gusecki, who has been a prominent member of the show every week so far? Yeah, I would actually take the under on the yardage versus the 1.5 receptions. You can grease your way into two catches pretty easily, even at a 6% market share of the targets. If teams are passing that much you

know although they might not have the personnel to do it that just trying to limit waddle limit hill and make to a pass anywhere else is going to be a pretty good strategy for the ravens whether they can execute that or not i don't know but you know getting to 20 yards for mike gasecki seems a lot more implausible than him getting the two catches this week. Yeah, that's fair. I can go either way. I'm in on the shorting the Dolphins passing game this week, even though there's just a crap ton of injuries in the secondary for the Ravens. So no problem with that. Pat, first one.

First one for me, I want to gauge your temperature on the San Francisco backfield for a second. No Elijah Mitchell. So it's like, oh, wow, Jeff Wilson is going to do all this damage. It's like, is he going to do all that damage? So I'm looking at unders for Jeff Wilson because one of the main reasons that we saw more Debo being used after Elijah Mitchell missed the game, it was like a monsoon, so I don't know how accurate any of that offense

is going to look for the 49ers. But now you have Torian David Price active for this game and some other absolute jabroni. What's his mason jordan mason is expected to be at i mean if may if jordan mason somehow led this team and carries in the running back backfield then i wouldn't be super stunned with how it's going with kyle shanahan so you have two options you have rushing yards or rushing attempts sorry 13 and a half over under for je Wilson. I like the under, but I might actually prefer the 64 and a half under on combined rushing and receiving yards for Jeff Wilson. I don't think he's going to do much in the passing game anyway.

Not that he's expected to do a ton, but it makes that a little bit higher just in case he starts doing well on the ground. And he does get to that over in rushing attempts. I just feel like unders is a very safe spot for Jeff Wilson this week. We've seen him handle the load periodically for the 49ers but most of the time when you see these spots with a still mixed super encouraging but damian williams was getting all the carries until he got hurt now yes he's not playing this week so you'd think oh yeah tons of cordero well they had nothing to adjust to last week they only had like two running backs active of course he had to get all of the carries that's not going to be the case this week and i feel like that's also not going to

be the case for the 49ers so under 64 and a half rushing plus receiving yards for jeff wilson for me connor what are your thoughts on that i keep going back and forth on this because his averages, you know, when he does get the role are pretty high. Um, but it's such a hot hand approach. Like he has two drives. Like he has one to two drives. If he impresses, he'll probably be the majority carrier the whole game. If he sucks, he'll be on the bench, you know, like he'll be, it'll be Jordan Mason will have his chance. And if he impresses, it'll be his time or Tyrion Davis price. If he's active, you know, like they're going to try all of them. They're going to all give him a chance. And whoever looks the best after those first, you know, two, three, four drives, uh, that's going to be their guy kind of going forward. So I think that the floor is super

low. So to, you know, to Pat's point there, I think that the under is probably the right look, but it's tough for me to take just because we have seen him have some success in the past. I agree that it's probably under or nothing based off of what how pat laid it out because i do think he's a zero in the passing game for the most part um so i think that that's probably pretty limited but we know we've seen it shannon hannigan's and stuff like just the range of outcomes here are pretty vast and there's been enough around both the different times whether it's Terry and Davis price or Jordan Mason around like positive camp pub so that's probably for a reason they continue to draft these guys knowing that they have Jeff Wilson on the roster because they kind of know that Jeff Wilson is really just a guy so do you just lean on Jeff Wilson if as if he is

your Alpha in these scenarios I think they probably don't. So since there is an unknown here, I do think it's probably under or nothing. Not a play for me, but I get why you would go there because 64 and a half is a pretty large threshold, knowing that he's not necessarily going to airball the passing game, but he's, man, maybe a threat for one, one and a half, you know, in receptions there. So I would lean there with Pat, but not a play for me. one and a half, you know, in receptions there. So I would lean there with Pat

Panetta play for me. I get it though. All right. First for me, Cooper Cup. I get it. I know that no one wants to chase these like insane, you know, plus 85 plus arbitrary points. But like I get, no one wants to chase overs that are that high. No problem. If you look, and we have a tool on the site that allows you to see how frequent a guy goes over a prop. This is moved. I took Cooper Cup over 93 and a half receiving yards. It is up to 94 and a half. At 94 and a half in the last year plus, including the playoffs, he has an 82% hit rate. At the number that I got it at, just a yard lower, he has a 82% hit rate. At the number that I got it at, just a yard lower, he has a 91% hit rate. If you eliminate the Arizona Cardinals for some reason

who had in the past slowed him down, he's done it in all but one game. So I know that it feels crazy. And I know you go into this game and you're like, well, they have to stop Cooper Cup, right? They have to find a way to do so. But I think that kind of takes away from what we've seen Sean McVay do from a coaching and scheming standpoint. And you look, according to PFF last week, nine of his 15 targets, he had 38% of them anyway, came against

the linebacker or safety in primary coverage. You would think how in the world can you end up with a linebacker or safety in coverage on Cooper cup, but it happens. It happens all the time. So you can't go into that game thing. And the bills weren't ready for Cooper cup to get a 38% target share. No, it's just schematically a lot of teams play zone mostly. And there's ways that they move around and put them in different spots.

So that, that happens. And, you know, I know that there's going to be a lot of steam and the squeaky wheel narrative around Alan Robinson, because he was shut down last week. They can all eat. I think Allen Robinson gets on the board this week a little bit better, but that comes probably from like

Ben Swarvack and Tyler Higbee than it does from Cooper Cup. So give me Cup against this terrible Atlanta team who I think is going to struggle to get pressure. I know it's a large number, but over on Cup, probably anywhere under a hundred yards, which I know is tough to stomach, but I'm there. Looking at it too, like you have Hayward and AJ Terrell on the outside, Terrell, one of the best corners in football, probably not going to be chasing Cooper Cup into the slot too often. No, and that's it, right? That's really the only redeeming quality that you can even have. And most people can only name AJ Terrell. And you're looking to list Falcon starting defenders.

It's a joke, Connor. Yeah. And I want to bet on an Allen Robinson bounce back, but I don't think this is the week. And with him probably potentially running the same routes that we saw last week, which is like clear out routes, opening the middle of the field up for a guy like Cooper Cup. It's tough to really fade that, but at the same time, Noonan, you love these high overs. Like this is like your jam. This is the, you know, the high, the wide receivers who are in a good spot, um, just smashing their overs like pretty much every week. I mean, you already hit, uh, Devante Adams as well. I'm not sure if I ruined another play here in the notes, but that moved already 10 yards, uh, from the you know keep doing your thing man i'm not i'm not gonna hate on it's not

for me but you know it's uh you know it works for you yeah yeah devante ams not on the card this week because he did move 10 yards versus when it was post for our subscribers but also like i think with the way that the game is played nowadays, there's nothing more predictable. I think we can, and we got then elite by receiver performance. And again, I know there are so many ways that a high number like this can go wrong, a little hammy pole. And all of a sudden he's out for the game and, you know,

maybe had a good first half and he fell short, but like it happens every week. You get there with Cooper cup and like, shit, it's halftime. He's got 80 yards. Like he's almost already there. It happens all the time.

So yeah, it is. I would love to get there mentally. I think we spend so much time, at least me, like, right. halftime he's got 80 yards like he's almost already there it happens all the time so yeah it is i would love to get there mentally i think we spend so much time at least me like right i'm thinking of dfs lineups i'm thinking about building these matchups and some of these things happen and i'm thinking about good performances right who's going to excel and it's very easy to get there and telling a story about like okay i expect davante ad Adams to crush the Cardinals secondary. I think there's no way that the Rams can get close to their 31-point team total, bounce back after a really bad week one if Cooper Cup is not heavily involved.

So, yeah, it's how I'm there. I know you go to shitty quarterbacks, and how are they going to fall flat on their face, and it works for you. I get caught in the middle, and that's my problem. So I need to stay in my lane and look for alphas only. And then we'll, you know, tag team and give everyone variety. It's a spice of life here on the show.

So you are actually in my lane here for this next one. I tailed it because this is an alpha who is priced like maybe a marginal wide receiver. Yeah. So my next one here is Cortland Sutton. I like the over at 54 and a half receiving yards. It's pretty widely available. You know, DK, MGM.

He saw seven targets last week, led the team in air yards with 121, which is 44% of the team's total air yards. He went over 53 and a half receiving yards last week in week one, despite the Broncos offense looking pretty, pretty awful for the most part of the game. He also ran around on a hundred percent of pass plays, looking at just a guy running, you know, a route on a hundred percent of Russell Wilson's, you know, pass plays looking at just a guy running you know a route on 100 of russell wilson's you know pass plays and you know getting those deep intermediate targets like it's there's so many ways that this can go right like it really would take a super inefficient game uh for it to go wrong but and he gets to match up against a team who doesn't necessarily have a good secondary

it doesn't have someone who i think can stop him so you know i like the over here 54 and a half receiving yards we have 72 yards projected for Sutton. And I think that that's a little bit bullish and they're more bullish than the rest of the industry. But I still think that, you know, 60s is very, very reasonable for kind of a bounce back game for this Broncos offense here. You got a lean there, Pat, or where are you at? Sorry.

I didn't even think their passing game looked all that bad last week. It's the fact they kept checking down, checking down, checking down for reasons, I suppose. But Sutton was open the entire game. Wilson just couldn't hit him in stride when he needed to, and he still got to his over. That was one of my favorite Monday night props to play was the Sutton overs on everything. I'm for that, but I was going to go to Big Albert O. You know who loves Big Albert O this week? Projection systems.

Over 30 and a half receiving yards is the strongest play my numbers have spit out. Now, maybe my numbers are completely wrong, and that's what's going on here. But just with the pass rate that we saw, now they were losing for a lot of that game. Maybe that switches up, but I think he can clear this in the first half. We kind of got a little bit of a gift, gift and the books didn't react that they started using other tight ends at the very beginning of the game but it was very clear that albert o was the tight end that you actually did want on that team so i'm looking at it right now my numbers have him spit out at 58.5 yards as his medium projection like i said i may have over projected him but 30 and a half is almost double, or it's almost half of what the projection comes out as.

So I can't not play that. Yeah, I mean, when you look at it, it's what, 77% of the routes run, and there are a lot of questions coming into the season about what that was going to look like. So no problem there. I mean, he was almost using the slot more so than even as like an inline tight end.

So yeah, no problem on the alberto it's aggressive your medium projection feels not like a medium projection but that doesn't mean that you can't still get there you have room baked in right so you have to trust some of that a little bit in the season so i'm there and like it's not it's nothing crazy like i with the way that that offense was so concentrated like you had andrew beck have those two catches like how many targets do you think that andrew beck gets this week one yeah how many routes does he even run yeah so like you said 77 percent of the routes run like you can like i have him projected as a 19 percent target share right now maybe that's a bit too aggressive but let's say we do just change it up just a little bit

we'll drop him down to a 15 percent projection in terms of the target chair and we'll run it again and see what ends up happening that's a significant decrease almost half of the target chair i bet you he still comes in over that number of 30 and a half which is kind of crazy to think about like for him like he's a big play tight end as well like that could just be one catch for him which is kind of the crazy way to think about it with his athleticism so we shrink it down to 11 percent where are you at now he's not very high on the list now albert and all of a sudden he is now coming in with the 11 percent target share he is now coming in at 25 receiving yards which would be the under but you know i still think that he

comes in way ahead of that yeah we have met 40 receiving yards uh projected for and i think we are probably actually even a little light and that's on i think it's about three and a half catches maybe four catches so there we are i like it all right next for me um nick chubb over 16 and a half rushing attempts uh mrs bet mgm at minus 110 there were a lot of instances last season where the browns were six point favorites or more right it's kind of a crappy year and obviously all the concerns and injuries that they had especially on the offensive side with Baker and stuff. But I found three. And in those spots, he had a game against the Bears. The Bears, they were nine-point favorites at home against Chicago.

Nick Chubb ran for 22 attempts. A couple weeks later, they were home, and it was against the Raiders, 23 attempts. Another spot against – I lost it. It wasn't the Texans. But he, 23 attempts. They're another spot against – I lost it. It wasn't the Texans, but he had 23 attempts. So every time that they've been six-point favorites or more in the last calendar year, Chubb has cleared 22 carries. Now we're in a spot against a Jets team that Connor and I – Connor's about to bang a Jets under here in the show.

We're on the Jets team total under we think that the Browns are going to really try to slow and control this game down I know Kareem Hunt was involved last week but still even in a spot last week they got up a little bit in that game and and Nick Chubb had 22 carries so 16 and a half at minus 110 feels like a really nice lean on Chubb when I think he's going to be a massive part of this game plan so i like that one quite a bit yeah i mean i would say my only concern would be that they end up using hunt a little bit more or you know maybe for some reason you know dearness johnson is active this week even though he's inactive last week but yeah it's when i keep picturing this game i just keep thinking about how we know what the browns are going to do they're

going to want to run the ball they're going to want to run the ball successfully without, you know, putting Brissette in the passing game at too much risk. And I think that they're going to be able to, because the Jets offense looked so, so bad last week, which I'll get to into a little bit here. But yeah, I think that the over is probably the right play, especially given how we expect the game state to go. Now, if that flips for some reason, it's a little bit of jeopardy,

but I think we're still probably at the right line, even if it's, you know, a neutral game script for them. I mean, if it flips, there's scenarios where some reason, it's a little bit of jeopardy, but I think we're still probably at the right line, even if it's a neutral game script for them. I mean, if it flips, there's scenarios where it flips and it's dead, right? But again, even with Kareem Hunt's usage last week, which was, I think, a little higher than everyone expected, again, they got up. The charge from the Panthers side was late in that fourth quarter. They had a double-digit lead early in that game and kind of controlled the ball. And again, I just can't see a scenario where the jets are in this game. And again,

I know we're talking about a Jacoby Brissett led team and Pat's giving me the side eye is if you want to tell me that like the jets are going to be real players in this one to squash this one, but I do not see a scenario where the jets are really super competitive at any point with Joe Flacco under center. This is a close game. This has close game written all over it. Like, I mean, I wouldn't even touch a prop. I just bet the Jets in the spread. That would be the move for me. It's one of my favorite bets of the week, but the Jets run D I mean, the Jets deed did a pretty good job on Lamar and the Ravens last week. The Browns are going to be better than that. No chance.

The Jets run defense better than anything they have as any unit as a part of the team. So yeah, I can see, I can most, I think that's the prop I like the most is Nick Chubb getting to his over rushing attempts. I definitely wouldn't take the yardage attempts because the Browns are not scared to be like,

Hey, here's 22 touches for 70 yards and they can win by three, something like that. But I don't expect this to be any sort of blowout in the Browns' favor. Yeah, I mean, I don't expect them to blow it out. I just have a hard time envisioning. I think the game under is great because, you know, we're on the Jets under. But, yeah, I just don't think that they're really a competitive football team.

Flacco is so – They're not, but either of the Browns, technically, unless they have to start trying to get a boat race where they can find... Like, the Carolina run defense, not great. So you can run on them. You can pass all over them with your running backs. Very good routes for Jacoby Brissett.

It's kind of the opposite with the Jets. Like, you want to go deep opposite Sauce Gardner. That's how you're going to kill them. That's how the Ravens killed them last week. Yeah. The Jets used to, years past, have had probably the best unit was the defensive line. And they were good against the runners. Solid comparatively to the rest of the team.

They were 24th in rush EPA per play last year. And then last week, we had some offensive line issues on Baltimore, which I know we were concerned about. I think this offensive line healthy in Cleveland is significantly better than what Baltimore rolled out last week. So yeah, even though they did struggle and again mike davis and kenyan drake a little bit different than a really solid healthy browns front and kareem hunt so i get the points then if you're so confident quit being a coward make a same game parlay browns to cover the spread nick chubb over yards nick chubb over

rushing attempts brother you know i'm the same game parlay is this is i can't talk about on the show because connor will yell at me all the time but no i live for that stuff you know no i'm a i'm a changed man dude i'm a changed man i'm team i'm very pro same game parlays now especially when they're correlated yeah i like they have to be correlated oh yeah no we'll hammer jets team under uh 17 we'll hammer flacco under, which I don't want to steal from Connor. And then we'll hammer Nick Chubb. We'll throw any time touchdown in there too, which is just real D-Gen shit that I typically don't dabble in.

But yeah, I'm fine. Oh, man. All right. Well, yeah, I mean, that's like a five-leg parlay. That'll pay a pretty good amount here. But yeah, that rolls into my next pick here. We can add this to the same game parlay. Joe Flacco, I took under 226 and a half passing yards.

And I think that's pretty widely available above 220. Still at this point, he had 59 passing attempts last week, the coaching staff said, you know, they looked at the stat sheet where they were disgusted, you know, by what they saw. And he had just massive, massive play volume, because as we mentioned, you know, the Ravens were not able to, you know, get going at all, like they were just not able to sustain drives, they just were able to capitalize on big plays, but we're not able to sustain drives at all. So now we're looking at Joe Flacco playing against Miles Garrett, the Browns secondary. I think that they're in a lot of trouble here with the Browns, you know, being able to probably sustain play volume and kind of be able to take their out of the ball,

hold control of the game and just see like way, way fewer pass attempts. Um, so I expect the jets to not only lean on the run early, but then, you know, probably the Browns deflate the ball. So he won't have money, um, you know, many passing attempts. Plus he'll probably be inefficient against what I think is a pretty solid Browns defense. At least the pass rush is good in the secondary, uh, should be a solid as well. Our projection has them at 213 passing yards. So I think that he could actually go under 200 passing yards here, to be honest, and it would not surprise me at all. We got big discrepancies there. I got him throwing the ball 36 times for 250 yards.

Ooh. Yeah, I think that's the biggest thing. If they go pass heavy, he can certainly get there again. You know, if he throws the ball like 35, 40 times. But I don't know what our – let's see what our attempts have our attempts are at right now um i i see i i just look at how i mean maybe they completely blow it up because one week week one of a year is not necessarily going to resemble week two and how a team plays i do think this team is incompetent enough as like they say we don't want to do this we don't want to do that and they just do exactly what they did last week i think it could be very much on the

table it was like lovey smith being you know damian pierce really should have got the ball more it's like well you why didn't you give him the ball more in charge like if that doesn't happen again in week two it's like oh yeah he's an idiot like he doesn't know what he wants to do so that's not going to be super shocking i just look at the pace stats from week one like i mean the jets in the second half once they were actually down they started running a play every 20 seconds that was the fastest of any team in the second half overall in a neutral situation which there weren't a ton of neutral situation they were the eighth fastest team to snap the ball so they're just running an incredible amount of plays right now yeah i think the thought i think too is a little different because we talked about how

in this instance i think this is actually why the chubb play correlates so well here is because i think that the browns are able to like connor said slow the game down deflate everything a little bit by controlling in a way that was very different where lamar was pretty pass happy surprisingly last week so i think it they probably either both hit or they don't to be be honest, because if Nick Chubb can't maintain first downs and move the chains here for them, then it turns the ball back to the Jets and they're able to kind of up the volume and maybe replicate some of the stuff from a volume and pace standpoint

like Pat's talking about last week. So, yeah, it's a good point. I mean, you probably want to both. So it probably is best to same game parlay them for you out there. So maybe stay away from the Chubb touchdown. not necessarily there but uh but yeah they correlate for sure uh pat number three for you next one for me and this is one is going to be very projection heavy once again uh you can find it right now drafting sportsbook 32 and a half over cooper rush passing attempts now this goes against everything in my fiber

of what I actually think is going to happen in this game. And I have to look at, you know, it's funny, when I punch in my projections and it spits me out the numbers like, well, that's not how I think this game is going to go, although that's exactly what I told the system, how I think the game is going to go. And you just get really surprised by a lot of these numbers.

Big home dog. I actually think this game is closer. I would take Dallas against the spread. And optimally how dallas is going to run this game is try to run as much as possible squeeze the air out of the ball keep the clock running run at a very snail's pace but even when i punch that in the projections love these passing attempts i have him only behind tom brady is attempting the most passes in the league this week. And it doesn't seem like anyone's going to come in and take his job anytime soon. So 32 and a half is the number I haven't projected.

38 passing attempts. That is a wide, wide margin for passing attempts. I mean, my Jacoby Brissett one should have hit last week. But all of a sudden, Carolina decides not to ice the clock. They can't. They're like second and one. All they need is one yard yard they're going to kick a field goal win the game all of a sudden percent doesn't have to go into a two-minute drill and absolutely screw me on that number that happens this week i'm just going to blindly take this over it just seems way too low

he's middle of the pack for us in terms of where he's at in the week but we're at 34 so we're leaning a little bit over there too um it's an interesting look any thoughts on that one connor one, Connor? No, I think the Pat's right on like projected game. Say, when I think about that game, like I, they're going to want to get the ball to Zeke. He didn't get the ball enough. We saw Mike McCarthy come out and say that Kellen Moore, the office of coordinator needs to be smarter. Uh, essentially, you know, what he's saying is get the ball to Zeke more, run the ball more. It seems like, but, uh, I mean, Zeke looked good. So I think that they could ride with him for a little bit, but it's just a matter of like when the game gets out of control like they're gonna have to throw at some point um and i do think that even then like 32 and a half

attempts is really light even in like kind of a neutral or somewhat positive game script for them if somehow things go right uh but if things go wrong i'm gonna fly over this number yeah we were kind of fist pumping right like 10 minutes into that game on sunday night connor like we had the zeke over they were like feeding him in the first drive he's actually looking pretty good and then things go sideways real quick and that's gonna that can happen from time to time but i mean i know it could be a different game plan this week but just in neutral just overall seconds per play dallas was the second fastest team in football, only behind Detroit in that circumstance. And they actually upped it.

I mean, they weren't Jacksonville and the Jets played from behind very quickly, as you should when you play from behind. But Dallas was way up there as well. There was no spot, whether they were up, whether it was first half, second half, down, neutral. They were just running plays very quickly for no reason. And that stayed uh consistent actually with the last few years of kellen moore they've ranked like second and top or top three in pace in neutral game script for the last three years consecutively which is pretty pretty awesome i'd love to get pat's thoughts on this one because it seems to be in line with some of the things

that he is leaning on so far since we've been doing this show is is I'm in on Marcus Mariota over 30 and a half attempts in this spot. We have him about 34. He went over last week pretty comfortably in a spot where they led a lot. This is available on BetMGM at minus 105. I think they're going to maybe have a little bit more trouble against the Rams this week. Rams probably bouncing back, again, home, 10-point dogs. So, again, you would think that we see a little bit more pass happy approach, even though, you know,

he topped it last week, even though we, we saw more Cordero pass and we saw more Mariotta on the ground. Like that was one I thought was going to be on the show for me this week was Mariotta rushing yards over. He had a massive number. It's like 35 and a half now. And what a great rushing week, 12 attempts, 72 yards last week, 22% design runs, which is like triple his career high for a season when he was in Tennessee. So again, I don't want to blow up one game, but again, lots of bootleg action, lots of different things that we saw from them last week

that maybe had him with a one read and run. So I don't hate that, but interested to see what Pat's like on the Mariota over 30 and a half attempts. I have him right there. I am at 30.9 passing attempts. And maybe it's just my biased opinion that I think that Atlanta could be a playoff team this year

is that I think this game is way closer than that spread indicates. I think that the Rams might be in real trouble this year if they cannot block. And maybe it's the Bills pass rush. Maybe it's just so amazing that they're going to be in the backfield every time but new orleans is supposed to have one

of the best offensive lines in football and you know who they couldn't block the atlanta falcons and they weren't blitzing they were just rushing for the entire time so if that line ends up as weak as it looked on the opening thursday now they've had 10 days to overcome it maybe atlanta played a little bit over their heads but because you have those two lockdown looked on the opening Thursday. Now they've had 10 days to overcome it. Maybe Atlanta played a little bit over their heads, but because you have those two lockdown corners on the outside, you do have to extend the play a little bit more and wait for, I mean, in this case, it's going to be Cooper cup available over the middle of the field. That's good. But I can just see some sacks in this spot,

the clock running a lot in this spot and the game not getting out of hand. And you kind of mentioned it that, you know, a lot of these weird bootlegs three guys in the backfield it does seem like they kind of want to run a weird college offense that we might not see mario to start lighting it up in the passing game unless they fall down by 14 10 really early and i don't think that happens i'll tell you what if that's so that's definitely something that's on my list to watch for to see if there's any week one noise or if that's like that kind of be something that's sticky because the the falcons didn't really add anyone as far as like their pass rush they needed to add someone last year because last year they had a 13.8 pressure rate it was by far the worst in the

league is the worst in the league since 2014 and then they come out last week and get a crap ton of pressure on Jameis. It was very weird. And then again, like no one can run on the Saints historically. They're like these barely anyone that's run over 100 yards the last handful of years. Ran back the worst offensive line in the league with the same five dudes and ran down their throat. So, like, again, I definitely want to see what's going on

with both the Falcons and the Saints. But, like, I'm nervous for the Rams if they can't protect again. And then maybe I need to maybe not be in the playoff bandwagon with you. But maybe there's something there with the Falcons that I'm not currently accounting for. I think that Arthur Smith has them working in unconventional ways, which is going to pay dividends early, especially on the offensive side of the ball,

because teams just aren't prepared for what they're trying to do. Like you said, you know, the Mariota rushing yards, that's not something that we ever saw before in the way that he was utilized, but he was running bootlegs. He was running option plays. Like sometimes just, you know, it's almost like in a game of blackjack where if you play by the percentage card and you make the right decision every time, you know what you're going to do lose because the house has the advantage so you need to do something at some point throw a little bit of sand into the microchip try to blow it up a little bit and it feels like that's what they're doing on offense at least so far this year and there could be something like there's there's two things working in unison here with the falcons especially pass rush you mentioned

that their pressure rate they had the lowest adjusted sack rate in the league by over 2%. It wasn't even close. So natural regression would state that they had to be better because they're an NFL team than they were last year. So you just have that boosting them up. And this offensive line, this defensive front, it was super young a year ago. Maybe these guys are just better in year two.

Yeah, it can happen. I want to be open to that too, right? It's like moving off of our priors, even though there wasn't necessarily a massive talent influx. Typically, that's going to be there. There's no schematic changes either. So yeah, definitely want to see what's going on

with the Rams and the Falcons in this instance and the Saints as well. If they were going to be a team that can't protect and you can run all over, that's not necessarily the team that I thought was going to the playoffs. And, you know, the Rams definitely are in danger to repeat in the West if they can't protect.

And it looked like through one week that they had no shot at protecting Matthew Stafford. So, all right, what's next here? It looks like it is going to be Pats. No, Connor, for your last one, buddy. Wrap us up. Yep. Last one here. So it looks like this is getting a little out of hand with the juice. I don't know if someone played this like while we're on show here before in addition, cause it was available as of like a couple of minutes before, but Lamar Jackson over 29,

half pass attempts. It still looks like it's minus one 30 at some places, but I like this over here. I think, you know, prior to the season, we expected the Ravens to go back to their run-heavy approach that we've seen before the 2021 season. But, you know, this week one, they ranked sixth in pass rate over expectation. And then going back to last year where they kind of had that pass-heavy approach,

he's gone over this number in 10 of 12 games that he's finished, including a 43 attempt outing against the same Miami unit with the same defensive coordinator. So, you know, I think that with Miami bringing,

bringing the blitz here and the Ravens banged up a little bit on the offensive line here, still with Juwan, Juwan James out Ronnie Stanley practice today. But I think that, you know, I doubt it'll be a hundred percent by game time. JK Dobbins again,

practiced in full Wednesday, Thursday, but coming back from multi-ligament injury held them out held out week one so i don't really expect their run game to be firing in all cylinders here um and kind of what we've seen for the past year and a half or so uh it seems like they're probably going to continue to be past heavy so i think at 29 and a half this is a pretty good look here on the over i like it it was one of the ones i was eyeing down as well awesome let's let's ride yeah it's i don't know about 30 what do you think what would you play it up to like 30 and a half was

probably my limit here but um because it's starting to get a little bit juiced in some spots yeah how juiced did you say that it was um i mean so i'm using our prop finder we played it i played it at minus 110 here like literally right before the show but now it's at minus 110 here, like literally right before the show, but now it's at minus 130. I'd probably still play it, but it'd really get 30.5, minus 110, or minus 120 depending on the shop. But I think 30.5 is still fine at minus 110. Yeah, 30.5 at minus 110. I actually like my numbers support that.

If it starts getting up to minus 120, minus 125, it's a complete off for me. Yeah, good luck. Yeah, I think that we had that and Connor hit it, and then I think multiple people subbing hit it as well, so it's probably starting to get some action there. Pat, number four for you, bud. It's going to be an anytime touchdown. I played it last.

I think this is, I can't even remember what I put in last week, but this is one that I hit heavily across all prop shops when it came down to it, and I'm going back to the well again. Antonio Gibson, anytime touchdown, minus 110. What can't Detroit do? Lots is the answer. Stop the run is primary on that list. And they run a ton of plays as well, which is kind of crazy to think about.

They run at such a fast pace that there's going to be more opportunity for Antonio Gibson. I would actually try to go. Let me see. Let me bring up the same game parlay here for Antonio Gibson. I would actually try to go. Let me see. Let me bring up the same game parlay here for Antonio Gibson. I mean, I don't know if I buy exactly what was going on with him in terms of the passing game.

If that's ever going to continue to come to fruition ever again, the most routes he's ever run in the game, not going to bank on that, that outlier situation. And I don't think that Wentz throws for four touchdowns again, but this is going to be, it means projected as a close game. It is. What is it? It's minus one and a half a half now why won't it let me click on the game this is stupid

there we go thank you DraftKings Sportsbook for letting me click on this game so you can go TD scores anytime touchdown oh they juice it up in the same game parlay how about that it's minus 120 in the same game parlay it's minus 110 overall either way antonio gibson anytime touchdown and then we can get to some of these rushing props for him as well where are we at here on the rushing props those are passing props let's really juice this one up here antonio gibson rushing yards let's grab over 64 and a half like that one we're already up to three to one and we're rushing out he's not we're not getting any rushing attempts on this one so we gotta wait for that one to come out later in the week but play like over 14 and a half rushing attempts you'll probably have like five five and a half to one on your money just

in on antonio gibson this week i love the commander's team total over as well so you add that in there comfortably it supports it too it's correlated right not perfectly but obviously point scored is going to help feed that naturally so no problem with that at all connor any thoughts on uh gibson here no i mean the matchup is so good and you know the lions continue to not restore the roar uh you know which makes me very happy after all of the you know off-season hype from you know multiple accounts here on in twitter so i'm pretty happy to kind of watch them fail. Not going to lie. Yeah, never understood that.

Smart people chasing the six and a half, even after it gets deemed through the five and a half. And yeah, crazy. So yeah, it's a mess there. Lots of points in this one. So no problem with the Gibson-based same game parlay. Like what we're doing here. I got a couple.

These aren't, one bet's not available that I want to talk about that I am going to chase if it's in a range we'll talk about that the other is michael pittman we had a question here in the chat too um you know pittman thoughts i like pittman quite a bit his prop opened up at 64 and a half yards against jacksonville way too low based off of how he was used last year and used in week one and all the steam we thought coming in the preseason. Some quad issues that are maybe limiting him. Frank Wright, just before he came on, said he's not worried about Pittman at all. Obviously, concern about re-aggravating an injury that popped up out of nowhere should give us a little bit of concern. 61.5 is a really low

threshold, but Pat, I would love to get your thoughts on Pittman and obviously all that's going on with him so far this week. See, I didn't see exactly like we're, we're kind of getting everything rolling out right now, whether or not players are going to go or not. Like KJ Hamler looks like it's more and more likely that he's not playing, which is even great for even better news for Albert O and his overs. We take one guy out of the passing game. Van Jefferson isn't lost, isn't playing. So, you know, Barbara Stanwix and his overs we take one guy out of the passing game van jefferson isn't lost isn't playing so you know barbara stanwix his overs he's gonna be fine as well um and then just seeing what's coming out about michael pitman it's just like well he's not practicing he might play like

it doesn't seem to be anything definitive about him i bet you he does oh no see now now i'm pulling up stuff i thought that was you talking it wasn't even wasn't even you so yeah here's the i thought you're gonna break news i thought we had no i thought that was you talking. It wasn't even, wasn't even you. So yeah, here's the, I thought you were going to break news. I thought we had, I thought that was you talking back to me. I was like, Oh, what are you saying? Well,

what's this breaking news? It sounds stupid. Now stupid auto auto pop-ups get out of my life. Auto ads. So here's the actual quote. He's optimistic that Pittman will be fine. That's not definitive in any kind of way that he's going to play. Now,

if he plays, I love the over I'm with you, but we could, when you're dealing with an injury situation, if we don't get more concrete evidence on Saturday that he's definitely going to play, like this could be a situation where they run him out here. He plays one snap, he's out of the game.

Correct. So that's the concern too. And then I think in that scenario, we should be, and you can tell me if you guys think I'm wrong, hammering Jags, getting four and a half in a spot where the secondary receivers there are a problem. Maybe that's a Jonathan Taylor proper. Like, I don't know. It just changes the dynamic.

When you looked at how the distribution of pass catchers were used last week, it's really Pittman and the receiver, the running backs, and that's it. So Connor, any thoughts on, I guess, Pittman, the Colts and the dynamics of this game? Something I've been eyeing actually all week would be like Matt Ryan on Ders because Pittman is basically just Pittman, and now Alec Pierce is out too. So who's going to get him to 236 passes? Ashton Doolin. Yeah, Ashton Doolin.

They've taken a lot of these off the board, so you can't even play many of the receiving props for any of the Colts receivers right now. It's funny that they've left Pittman on as the only guy that you can bet on at the 61 and a half but oh man yeah like with Pierce being out Doolin does become interesting Pittman becomes interesting I don't have a bunch I don't have much on Mo Alley Cox but I would take a look at the Naheem Hines over whatever that ends up being if even if Michael Pittman plays, just feels like that is someone who might slide in as not necessarily.

He's not a receiver. He's a running back, but just be on the field so much that he might end up with like four or five, six targets in this game, probably good for like over 20 yards receiving. And I just don't feel like his number is going to be around there. If my wife ever leaves me,

part of the reason is because I continue to bet too many running back receiving overs and I'm trying to stay away. I feel like bet too many running back receiving overs and I'm trying to stay away. I feel like it's a leak in my game. I'm with you. I think it's sound, sound advice. I think Javante Williams receiving overs this week are sound to place based off of the number, our projections. There are a few of them. I thought Jerry McKinnon was very sound last night as well. You in the world, you know how I want all my money besides Mike Williams. You know, the only other thing that I bet on the Thursday night football game besides Chargers,

plus four and a half, Jarek McKendon under 17 and a half receiving years. Do you know why? I was golfing all day. I get home and I just open up Twitter. Everyone's favorite prop, Jarek overs, Jarek overs. There's zero chance that's happening. I could have middled.

I had 14 and a half. It could have worked, but yeah, no negative. I opened up and, you know, missed a couple of plays trying to get the game on my television because for some reason the fire stick didn't want to work one reception for negative

five yards. And I'm like, son of a bitch, we're dead right out of the water. So yeah, literally got popped for a screen in the backfield, like the first drive or second drive. I was like, Oh, that's dead.

Like you just, that point it's over. Like you know that that prop is dead. No shot. So yeah, it's, uh, I get the Heinz thought and I just personally, it's somewhere, you know, I'll stay with my receivers at 95 yards, but I cannot touch these running backs in the high teens in the twenties anymore. I have Naheem hines projected for 26 receiving yards in this game three catches three catches on four and a half targets and if you start taking

away more of the receivers so these guys are gimped up a bit i feel like that number only goes up yeah it's a mess the other one i want to talk about is jamar chase longest reception jamar chase we don't have any props because I think they're still waiting on the Tee Higgins situation. Looks like he's going to play. The big plays that we get from Jamar Chase week in and week out. Joe Burrow was outstanding

against man coverage last season. The Cowboys play a significant amount of man coverage. Trayvon Diggs, for all of the noteworthy things that we saw from him last year, again, when you pick off 11 passes, break up 10 more, it tends to get a lot of attention. Though last year, his 11.2 yards per target was much higher than his 8.6 yards per target as a rookie.

He takes chances. He gives up big plays. And I think in this spot where even though I think the game's probably a little bit closer, kind of like Pat thinks, I think seven and a half is probably a little bit too much. I think that we're going to see some big plays, splash plays against man coverage and Jamar chase. It's probably going to open.

I would say probably 27 and a half, 28 yards for his longest reception based off of what we've seen in the last few for him. And no problem there. I think we see a splash play of 30-plus, which I think he's done in like 11 of 18 games or something like that. He's had like 11 of 18, like over 35 or 40 yards. He's had some big, big, big plays.

So Jamar Chase, when that comes out, if it's under 30, I'm going to chase his longest reception. Again, not out there currently, but we want to have you just kind of put that on your radar look get your guys thoughts i i love that because if digs ends up on him in this game that is the perfect perfect situation because digs is going to sell out for the interception on one of these like bubble screens chase is going to catch it and just run down the sidelines yeah yeah it's a great matchup for it again man man heavy in relation to the rest of the league and they kind of ran that back last week too so thoughts there connor no i like it i mean digs

gets so much hype around being a playmaker which he is but he's just like really not good in coverage at all his coverage grades are horrible and he gets burned all the time so you know i think this would be a great spot for for some jamar chase overs maybe just in general too if higgins plays you know they'll get some you know maybe in like the low 70s something like that uh i think that's possible so some overs there there a good look let's look at a couple thrive props real quick connor before we get to questions i'm not sure if you've opened or taken a look at this week's slate um they're doing it again they have a uh a layup which again like they're baiting you into the spot because it's not rewarding you any points but they have uh

david montgomery on sunday night uh one and a half total touchdowns for david montgomery i think i'm gonna lean under even though it's not getting you a lot of points don't feel really good about david montgomery finding the end zone twice is there anything that jumped out to you on this week's thrive contest i mean that's just hilarious because the bears team total right now is like 15 and a half so they're saying that they're scoring basically implied to score two touchdowns here uh like total and you're banking on montgomery scoring both them so i like the under there and that one a few other ones that are off market compared to domestic sports books that i don't necessarily like love in general but i think that

are good plays based on what we're seeing from a more efficient market uh aaron jones over 70 and a half rushing and receiving yards combined uh you know a little bit of squeaky wheel narrative there getting the ball i think that's in like the mid 80s mid to high 80s in most books uh joe mixon over uh 62 and a half rushing yards here um you know against dallas seven and a half point favorites i think that he should have his way um or at least get enough volume to have his way amari cooper uh i know, took an under touchdown prop, half touchdown. You can get pretty close to even money here on Amari Cooper under. And one more, Alvin Kamara. Now we just got a notification that they were not in the open portion of Saints practice.

So I don't know if he's going to play, to be honest. We took some Kamara unders as well. They signed Latavius Murray early in the week uh to the practice squad if he gets elevated i think there's a chance that kamara probably sits here but 68 total rushing yards i think is a good look towards the under if he does somehow play because that is way way too high some of my favorites there too so um again thrive fantasy thrive fantasy in the app store use promo code prop drop and you can get a 100 instant first deposit match up to 250 bucks join that contest it is not going to fill um so let's help get it

closer um we'll maybe continue to help the folks over there adjust but again like if you beat us in week one let us know again dm at four for four bets on twitter and we will help you get a free ticket here for for week two uh jump into some of the questions here um first of all we love you too but no love for pat yeah come on why are you people saying they don't like me says lovey connor lovey noonan smiley face no mel for pat i mean that's shocking i assume it's just someone who's very jealous of my good looks i think that's probably it it may also be a point so i don't know there's 50 50 chance friend of the show steve boynton hanging out with us do we think michael thomas usage was real in week one i know everyone was down on him coming into the season uh any thoughts

there pat on uh michael th Thomas and the Saints passing game? I would expect to see more from Michael Thomas. I mean, they were talking about a snap count for Michael Thomas in week one. He didn't have as much action, at least early on, than we expected. But when it kind of came to crunch time and they needed to score points, what was their play? Let's just throw it to Michael Thomas because he's awesome. And especially if Kamaro is going to be banged up i think we see more of him that tasem hill prop you talked about becomes a lot more intriguing if camaro is banged up too interesting to watch for uh adam wants to know haven't watched the whole show first of all adam fix that smash the like pal yeah come on you're here now comments likes

subscribe uh you get that notification every friday in this spot 2 p.m Yeah, come on. You're here now. Comments, likes, subscribe. You get that notification every Friday in this spot, 2 p.m. Eastern. Adam, come on. Want to know the thoughts on Sterling Shepard with Tony, questionable. Robinson out. Thoughts on 41.5 receiving yards. Those are not receiving yards. Receiving yards, I would take the under based off of the verbiage. But anyone have thoughts on Sterling Shepard here?

No. No Giants. Yeah, that's – Or nothing. Yeah. Agreed. Said it well. SC, maybe you already said it and I missed it.

Do you like Mariota over 31.5 pass attempts? It looks like the 30.5s are gone. Yeah, you know, probably seems a little high again you know based off of you know talking through with pat too pat's numbers are kind of on that spot we don't have it as a massive bettable edge anyway especially when we get up to the 31 spot so probably a stay away for me unfortunately if you did not catch the 30 and a halfs you can kind of wait and see i think you know again last week he went over it i think we're at like 33 in our projections. So, again, not a massive available edge. I think you guys probably feel the same based off of what we talked about earlier.

Pittman thoughts we got to. Looks like Boynton's with Pat here. Likes the Jets plus six and a half. Steve, you can slide into the DMs if you want to get some juice-free Jets action, peer-to-peer peer coming to you soon. Uh, but that's about it. Oh,

because like we got a fancy question. Cash. What show are you watching? Props. Would you trade Julio and Gadarius for D hop and Mooney? Listen, ask Dagle those questions. Team app four for four.

They can handle all that stuff for you I'm not getting into your trade questions Know where you're at, prop drop We're here for fantasy, not for fantasy We're here for props, man, come on That's about it I don't know if there's anything else good here for you So that's it, again

Prop drop every week Go look at the Thursday show Our game previews Nine bets in there for you connor dale and i looking at games sides and totals everything like that pat where can everyone find you and all your stuff this week pat mayo experience follow me at the pme on twitter and you know i got a ton of stuff going on most of it not good and not helpful but some of it is so you have to parse through it all to get to the good stuff.

Love it. It's all good. So check it out. Again, smash the like button on all the PME Pat Mayo experience, Mayo Media Network, all the good stuff there. Connor, any other work coming from you this week? Continue to update the prop article as new stuff drops. I'm thinking.

Yeah, I have a list of like five or six more props I want to bet, but the numbers just aren't out yet. So hop in the Discord, get the notifications on those. I'll be updating my article as well as maybe some betting threads. Now that I have a little more energy, not in Vegas, maybe do some betting threads, the content that everyone wants. That's exactly what people are looking forward to. So we'll stay tuned. We'll see.

I was going to let us go before Producer Sal's Pick of the Week. This is our prop tool. It's tied to our projections, which have been the best in the industry for over a decade. Available part of our betting sub at 444. Betting sub secures everything on the site, everything you're going to need to be profitable this season. Articles, tools, rankings, DFS, subscriber-only Discord,

like Connor is talking about, covering multiple sports, MMA, NBA, college football, soccer, a ton of new betting resources that we've added this year. So 444.com slash plans for the betting sub. And real quick, let's get a peek at Producer Sal's prop bet of the week. Curveball from Sal changing the music up a little bit son of a bitch sal we just talked about this javante williams over 22 and a half receiving yards i mean i can't i can't pat any thoughts on javante massive target share last week i have him so far under i have like 20 yards under this number you have him at two and a half receiving yards no no what's your projection i'm sorry i project yeah yeah we're 38 and a half yeah i have 16 and a half wow okay yeah see this is it right the variance in these are massive so

connor i think i know your thoughts from just a how to approach these bets standpoint, but any thoughts specifically on Javante? Yeah, I think it was a little bit, our projections, a little bit of an overreaction to last week. I don't know. I just don't really think that he's going to be as involved, but the coaching staff did say like, oh, we really like to get our running backs involved in the passing game. So I don't, I don't know. I'm kind of in a wait and see approach here, but you know, I don't like fading producer Sal because his picks have been on fire, you know i i don't like fading producer sal because his picks have

been on fire uh you know dating back to last season so uh you know fade at your own risk yeah it's funny because i mean this isn't a fade spot for me it's just more of a no play because clearly your guys's projections are really buying into what happened last week with the target chair mine are doing the opposite of that coming in at i think i haven't like three targets or something so the reality is probably somewhere in the middle and when you have a talent like that if all of a sudden he has five targets realistically with this number i mean that could just be one catch for giovante williams because he's so good makes one guy miss he's down the field so that's why i don't love running back i mean you talk about the running back overs in terms of receiving yards ryan that's why i don't love running back. I mean, you talk about the running back overs in terms of receiving yards, Ryan.

That's why I don't love the unders at the same time either. I'd rather play them as overs unless it's Jarek McKinnon and the world is on the over than just automatically bet the under. But for a situation like this, like just I could be so wrong with how I'm projecting it. And I realized that, that I wouldn't go all in on that. Yeah, sound process.

As you can see see player prop tool very helpful tied to our projections you can search by state sports sportsbook stat that you want to display you just type in the player like Sal did here typing in Javante Williams again this is a tool for us as part of our betting subscription uh four four dot com slash plans to access it we think it is uh one of the best out there on the site. So feel pretty good about that. Sal, thank you. I know last year was very profitable for Sal.

I would say, what did he have? Probably a 65, 75% hit rate. And I think 50% of them were basically Cordero Patterson overs. So this is kind of on the plans. Yeah, it was Cordero Patterson and Juice Check. Those were the two. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, Juice Check always popping in the full projections.

So take that with a grain of salt as you use that. So, all right, we'll wrap it up here with that. For Connor and Pat, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next week. Thanks for watching. you