Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 3 2023 Player PROP BETS

Episode Date: September 22, 2023

Unlock the best NFL Week 3 2023 Player Prop Bets with our expert analysis! Dive deep into top picks, predictions, and odds for the upcoming games.Whether you're a seasoned prop bettor or new to prop betting, our insights will guide you to make informed decisions. Stay ahead of the game with our expert breakdowns and maximize your winning potential.Timestamps:0:00 Intro4:05 Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Week 3 Prop Bet6:50 Elijah Moore Week 3 Prop Bet8:43 Amari Cooper Week 3 Prop Bet13:36 CJ Stroud Week 3 Prop Bet17:03 Tyreek Hill Week 3 Prop Bet25:59 Miles Sanders Week 3 Prop Bet30:01 Jaylen Warren Week 3 Prop Bet32:21 Pat Freiermuth Week 3 Prop Bet36:37 Tackle Props41:14 Bonus NFL Player Prop Bets50:29 Audience Questions1:05:44 OutroSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow John on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/sloprulesVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

More memories are made when you're there for live NFL action. And when you need tickets, Ticketmaster's got you covered. As the official marketplace of the NFL, Ticketmaster gives you more ways to find your perfect seat. Their interactive seat map gives you 360-degree previews of your section to make sure you have the best views of those pivotal plays. And, if your plans change, Ticketmaster gives you more flexibility to sell or transfer your tickets. Plus, mobile tickets make getting in on game day a breeze. You can even customize your Ticketmaster app to rep your team's colors.

Find tickets today at Ticketmaster.com slash NFL. hello and welcome move the line presented by fanduel sportsbook this is the prop drop show i'm ryan noonan back to talk about the best way and the most profitable way to bet on NFL football. And that is through player props. Live here at 2 p.m. Eastern every Friday here on our 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel, giving out our favorite player props and taking your questions. So if you're hanging out with us now on YouTube,

we appreciate it. Jump in the chat, let us know what your favorite prop is for week three. If you want our thoughts on the play, feel free to ask. We'll get to as many as possible here at the end of the show. Joining us live on YouTube is really the best way to ensure that you can get the same number and price on these props. They move fast. We want to make sure we can get as many people down as possible. So hang out with us on YouTube. If you prefer the podcast version, you should be

able to find that in your feed on Friday evening. Subscribe to both. That way you do not miss a show. Joining me here as always, Connor Allen. What's going on, buddy? Not too much. Another good week to get rich. You got the mentality there. Two and O after Thursday, won both of them on the hook after multiple bad beats the week before. So I feel like things are looking up right now a gentleman trying to make us rich last weekend and is going to probably do it again here this week we got a absolute banger on uh on cook at nine to one to go over 100 yards he hadn't done it before slop but that didn't mean he wasn't going to do it last week from odds jam you can find him on twitter at slop rules john hi slop how we doing today uh it's living the dream guys yeah that was just a matter of time for that kid.

Like he was ready. You can tell, you can just tell by looking at him, this guy's going a hundred plus. That was all time fun too. Do you see the way to hit where they, they had to come back out for, you know,

to route the clock. So if the Raiders didn't fumble, they probably don't have to run plays when they get the ball back. So they were just perfect. Everything about it. I had a great time watching it yeah nice nice big splash run at the end too it was fantastic yeah it was uh absolutely love to see that one so hopefully we can get some more in uh in people's pockets here this week a reminder two episodes of move the line each week this is prop drop game previews

connor myself sharp clark is wednesdays 3 p.m eastern again same podcast feed same youtube channel four for four bets you can find out if you want to get more into game breakdowns sides totals all of those things if you want the official place the things that connor and i push out exclusively uh to our subscribers you need a betting subscription to four for four gets you access to everything we do over there so anything that you're doing in terms of football, speculation, betting sub at 444 is what you need. DFS, rankings, projections, articles, tools, everything that we do.

Subscriber Discord is where you want to be for the picks though. That is, I think, really the crown jewel of the sub. Great like-minded community. I love our Discord. I have them completely defensive pilled. Like I had not,

I didn't know that that was my dream, but man, like sundays we are just sweating tackles all day long it is a great place to be um we do kind of acknowledge some of connor's basic bitch props as well so if you know you get into some of the more basic stuff we can appease your needs there as well but uh again if you play in any of the pickup sites prize space underdog vivid we have channels in specific plays there as well obviously daigle tj hernandez providing lots of great dfs content we're available tag us in discord and i mean connor and i are in there all the time i know our wives probably hate football season more than anything because we are constantly

married to the discord a promo code week two will get you 25 off of the sub go to four for four.com slash plans more details here in the show notes. If you have questions, you can hit us up there as well. Again, no stale bread, live lines that you can bet on right now. Our goal again is to make sure that you can get in with us here while we do this. Not super fun to have us come on here and talk about a bet that you can't get because we bet two days ago, two hours ago, 20 minutes ago. So we're giving you fresh stuff right now. Connor, floor is yours. Week three, first play. Yeah, let's get us going here with something hot. You know, another over, uh, Nick Westbrook, a key name over 24 and a half receiving yards.

This seems really random, right? You think you're looking at it. You're like, why are we betting on the third receiver over getting a tough matchup here? But here's the key. Deandre Hopkins practiced in full on Wednesday, was downgraded to limited on Thursday, was not seen on practice today on Friday. The recent report that we just got a notification from Fantasy Life app, shout out to Fantasy Life app, said that he has, quote, a chance to play. He's traveling with the team and has a chance to play. In my mind, that means there's one, he's for sure not 100% healthy like he was in last week, and it's probably actually worse. And two, he might not play. And on top of that, you have Traylon Burks, who had KT tape, which is like black tape,

basically helping to help your muscles on the back of his leg for multiple days during practice and only played 60% of the snaps last week as well. Nick Westbrook-Akene actually played the most snaps last week and ran more routes than Traylon Burks. So in this spot here, potentially without DeAndre Hopkins, or if he does play, he's probably going to be limited. And then you have him playing more than Traylon Burks in a spot where Traylon Burks actually really struggled against press man coverage. Jim Swartz runs like the most press man coverage in

the league right now with Cleveland Brown. So I think that I understand that the match was tough from like a holistic standpoint. Cleveland's D gets a ton of pressure there. They played really well, but they still allowed Kenny Pickett to throw for 220 passing yards. They still allowed yards to happen. It's just that they cause turnovers. They cause havoc. And I think that like those types of things are skewing some of the perception around like, okay, well, Nick Westbrook Akina is going to get like five, six targets.

He's probably going to get 25, 30 yards at least. Alt over to 40 receiving yards is like plus plus 210 i mean that's like 40 receiving yards is nothing i mean like if he's playing more hopkins is a play i mean this is a a great look holy crap is this off brand for you like this is a guy you would be banging an under on for sure uh but i feel like slop is like starting to seep into your mind here over i saved the fun ones for the show, you know. I like it. I love it.

I love it. I think he's doing great work, Connor is. No one's doing that. I like it. I just, you know, Connor is a, you know, always drives me nuts. He'll bang these like really bad players for like under on, you know, 20 yards. He's really a little threshold for these guys to get over. Yeah.

I like what you laid out here there's some there's some outs here in terms of just you know whether it's limited hopkins or some of the things that you laid out so yeah good stuff just throws me off guard i'm not used to i caught you off brand with the gabe davis over last week and he absolutely crushed so you know maybe i'm shifting my brand a little bit it's like i bang the unders in the discord everyone gets on it and i come on the show with slop and just fire these hot overs. Chameleon. I love that. Someone's got to go under. Someone has to go over.

Just got to pick the right ones. Just math. It's math. Slop. Floor is yours, buddy. First play for week three. Since Connor went with a super base one, I'm going to go with a super base one for the first one. How about Elijah Moore same game though Connor Elijah Moore over three and a half receptions you can get that at Caesars right

now it's plus 118 that feels like Caesar got together with God and was like hey you know what I mean like here's some money because like that's that's a ridiculously low line like I can see if they were doing three and a half, like minus 130, minus 140. But he's been targeted 16 times this season. He's only caught like six of them. So I don't think it's totally his fault too. I mean, it's Deshaun Watson's not throwing catchable balls, but whatever. Without Chubb, I bet you they put him back in the backfield a few times.

It's just one of those weird things where they run him out of the backfield, throw him a ball, he loses five yards. Guess what, though? That's a reception. So at some point he's going to get four. I mean, he's only had three in the first two games, each of the first two games. At some point he's getting four.

I think it's against Tennessee because they're not running on them. Like they had the first two weeks. It was fine with Cincinnati. They played first, and Chubb went for 100. Last week they had the Steelers. They're not stopping the run either. And the Ford kid went for over a hundred. That ain't happened this week.

So they're going to find a creative way to move the ball. And Elijah Moore, I mean, four times, like, come on guys. I thought it was the first half line. We are unintentionally building you again. Like, yeah, we, you know, we have a show sheet, right? Connor, we like yeah we you know we have a show sheet

right connor we still do show sheet is there a show sheet do we have a show sheet we do have a show sheet but i did not update it for this week so i just wanted to lay out a couple things we were doing and you know uh i guess we're just rolling in hot you know i love it what we're doing here is we're unintentionally building people a same game parlay we got two legs i got a third for you it's a little bit overlap here but i'm staying in the same team amari cooper over four and a half receptions plus 105 this is on draft kings plus money our friends here at fan duel have minus 102 it's basically right around one flat no matter where you go. Again, same premise. I don't mind the 57 and a half receiving yards. This is in line with Connor. I know Connor took a play earlier on like pro

Watson receiving yards that he pushed out yesterday. Questionable heading into Monday night. Looks really good, which cools a little bit of my concerns here. He caught seven to 10 targets last week for 90 yards. Titans, we talked about the massive pass funnel here. They've allowed at least eight catches and 111 yards to opposing wide receivers through the first two weeks. Chris Alave, Keenan Allen, almost identical outputs. And yeah, I like the Elijah Moore play. Amari's still clearly the number one here. If you look at like first read,

Watson, top 10 in first read rate through the first two weeks. 71% of his attempts go to his first read. And Amari Cooper has been that like 31% of the time. It's like 15th in the league. So he has 15 first read targets. So he's getting it done there. Again, soft landing spot, no Nick Chubb.

All the reasons that these guys have laid out getting plus money on Amari Cooper at 105 for four and a half receptions. Absolute banger here. Three pieces for same game parlay just for tuning into the show. We're 10 minutes in and we're just giving you absolute bangers. If we price that out, we should price that out for people. You guys want to know something crazy that, so normally for those of you new to the show, we do like a hot take segment, you know, like after this, you know, where we give it our hot takes. I mean, my hot take was Watson 300 plus passing yards. And we've now just hit all the receivers and watch 300 plus passing yards. It's plus five 75 plus five 80 and DK. I mean, we just saw Derek

Arthur over three Oh five against the fully healthy Titan secondary. And then they were banged up. Herbert came in through for three Oh five, even though they decided to run the ball, still a decent amount. Now we have the Browns where after Nick Chubb left, I went back and counted the entire game log because I don't know. Some of our tools are broken. I was, you know, game game log clicking.

It'll be fixed soon. It'll be fixed soon. Better be fixed soon. And so they had 41 dropbacks and just 16 runs after Nick Chubb left. We're talking about the second quarter on. So like very clearly they went out and they're like, all right, well, we ain't running anymore. Like, yeah, we'll give it to Jerome Ford to keep the defense honest. But like Nick Chubb is it. Nick Chubb is him. And if we don't have him, then we're just going to pass the ball. So I think we're

going to see a bunch of empty. We're going to see Jerome Ford split out. We're going to see Elijah Moore doing some crazy stuff, Amari Cooper, everything. So like I played, like, as you mentioned, over 222 and a half passing yards, just naturally, they're going to have to get there. They're going to have to pass and they're going to have success. So yeah, I think if you guys want to build out a same game parlay, honestly, you can take the overs for all of them. Brian twinning mentioned in the chat here, Ford over receptions, two and a half. I took a look at that. Honestly, I would consider it as well um because that's too low but kareem hunt i think i don't know how much he plays i think that was my concern is like he could just like come in and play a decent amount because he actually knows the offense

yeah yeah that would only be hard to hijack your play there by the way but i just had to wrap it all in one big i mean yeah rounds passing bundle you know yeah no i i do too i mean i think it makes a ton of sense i don't know what the numbers are this year, and it's a two-game sample, but I remember as of for last year, it's really the same. There's still a pass funnel in terms of what teams do against them. Teams threw like 68% clip against the Titans last year. It's the highest rate in the league. Two-fold, bad secondary, injuries, Christian Fulton's out,

and also a really stout run defense. We've kind of seen that play out early, kind of referenced in terms of what we've seen with, you know, a lot of ink, you know, now and early with, you know, big dogs eating there. So, yeah, I mean, look, there's a lot of weather here this weekend too. In a lot of places, it doesn't look as bad in Cleveland as it does up and down the East coast. You know, again, nothing looks like it's substantial from a wind standpoint. So I get why people might be reluctant to fire on some like overs this week

because it looks like there's going to be a lot of rain up and down the East Coast. But again, we just have enough data, pretty large sample size that's shown that rain alone isn't a massive factor in terms of totals and, you know, totals are going to correlate well with production and things like that. So I wouldn't overrate it yet. I understand why people would be gun shy. Maybe you want to wait until we get closer to kick on Sunday to fire on some of this stuff.

But Cleveland has bad weather all the time. They're obviously not on the East Coast. So they shouldn't have quite the weather that everyone else is going to have. So, yeah, I'm pro some of these takes here so far. Yeah, so that's a great – that's a four-legger. We built same-game parlays. We should probably price that up for people. But, yeah, that's a pretty good start.

So we rolled into your kind of hot take there too, kind of your spicy one. This is where we cashed last week's slot. This is where we got James Cook, 9-1, 100-plus yards, hadn't been done before, and meant he owed us in a way. What are we doing this week, buddy? All right, so I like C.J. Stroud's alternate passing yards at DK. Okay, it just went down to 450, but now it just went back up to plus 500. Or we could do C.J. Stroud 325 plus at plus 850 at FanDuel.

Look, the Texans, they can't run the ball right and that that's a that's a problem like they can they will not be able to run I don't think so and then on the flip side I don't think they're stopping the Jacksonville offense or they laid an egg last week definitely but I mean I bet you Jacksonville has no problem scoring on them here's the thing though I don't think Jacksonville's defense is all that good stopping the pat i mean you can throw the ball on them uh connor almost had to wear a clown suit because of them after week one remember anthony richardson which i mean he looked like a veteran nfl quarterback so i mean and if you say that holmes only got 305 on him last week well they played from ahead so it was a totally different game script so that doesn't even count

i think if houston trails in this game like i think they will i think stroud can throw the on him last week. Well, they played from ahead. So it was a totally different game script. So that doesn't even count. I think if Houston trails in this game, like I think they will. I think Stroud can throw the ball. He went for 384 last week. So it's not like he can't sling it. And, I mean, he sells out and throws it to Collins, Nico Collins pretty much all the time, which I like that. Like he has like a guy. But at plus, what did I say it was?

Like plus 850 for 325. I don't, that's not that crazy. 325 is not that crazy, especially for a guy that's in, like I said, a trailing game script and a defense that, you know, they're not the best at stopping the pass. And we could get some luck early on and get them going early just because they might not be able to run the ball. So that's firmly in play, in my opinion.

Yeah, I think – I don't have it up. I think Houston's like fifth in pass rate over expectation. So in like neutral situations, they're throwing the football. The offensive line issues are a problem, but they're trusting C.J. Stroud to go out there and sling it. So, yeah, Connor, I like that. 850, that's a nice number. Yeah, no, that's not bad.

If we get like a little mini divisional shootout here, things could get hot because I was looking at some Calvin Ridley, Altovers. I don't know if I love like his, you know, 70 yard over under, but I think that if this game pops, like 100 receiving yards,

125 receiving yards, very much in play, you know, for a guy like Ridley. So yeah, I think you can play both sides. Another nice little same-game parlay opportunity because it could be a ton of passing, not very much defense. The only thing I wouldn't take over is I'm going to be, like you mentioned, Damian Pierce rushing over.

His offensive line has been a disaster. I mean, they're starting all second stringers. What are you going to do about it, right? It's not necessarily their fault. It just kind of is what it is. So, yeah, I like a lot of the alt-overs in this one. Tank Dell, you know, if you really want to get there, I think it's not a bad look either.

It probably correlates a little bit too, as I talked about in the chat earlier. Travis Etienne stuff looks interesting. Travis Etienne, like longest rush, if you're not necessarily bullish on it. Denzel Perryman out for the Texans. Perryman had my highest tackle projection of the week. He's out. They are going to start Henry Tutu, the rookie from Alabama here. This is a pretty – and Jalen Petrie out again.

So, like, up the middle, Texans are a little depleted. So, you could see some pretty nice stuff here on the ground, I think, from Etienne who showed some upside in terms of, like, longest rush stuff, some splash plays. So, yeah, that's interesting. I got a couple pieces, and these are uncorrelated, but that's just part of the show. So who cares?

I'm going to throw them both out there and then parlay them together at the end. Connor and I already played an absolute banger on Tyreek Hill. We bet Tyreek Hill over six and a half receptions plus money, which I don't understand. I feel like Tyreek is always seven and a half. The fact that we got him in a game where Jalen Waddle, I don't know if we haven't got Jalen Waddle news as of yet, doesn't look good. He's behind schedule in terms of concussion protocol. I really don't care if Jalen Waddle plays. I like the Tyreek stuff just as much. I feel like we already won that bet. So I feel like I have more money to spend on Tyreek Hill bets.

Does that make sense? So let's go back. I mean, so this is Rich Rebar noted in his work over at Sharp Football. With Waddle off the field since last season, Hill has run 95 routes. On those routes, Tyreek has been targeted 43.2% of the time. That is insane. It's not actually even that far off of what his normal routes in target percentages. He's just a target hog. Patrick Sertain is one of the best corners in the league. No one's disputing that. He's not a pure

shadow corner. He did not shadow Devontae Adams in week one, did not do anything with Terry McLaurin last week. They move him around so much and do such a good job at scheming Tyreek open that I'm just not really concerned about that. So I'm going to skip the flat yardage prop, 87, 88 yards. On DraftKings, Tyreek to get 125 is plus 320. On FanDuel, you can get him to go over 150 at plus 580. I mean, he's already done this this year. He does this a ton.

This is Tyreek Hill. Plus 580 to get over 150. He went for like 215 in week one. I absolutely love him here. Denver's playing up in pace, which I think, you know, some smart people are on the over in that game. So, and I think that's just going to maybe lead to more snaps in the game overall. That helps here quite a bit. I also want to do the same thing with Justin Jefferson. His receiving

props, basically a hundred across the board. He has 150 in each of the two games to start the season. Now he gets the chargers. They've been torched in the first two games. They've allowed the highest rate of explosive plays, highest rate of explosive pass plays again let's ignore the 100 dk for 25 more yards takes you to plus 195 i mean that's a huge price jump for 25 yards we're basically the carters can't stop or i'm sorry the the bikies can't run my bad so it's like they're throwing like 80 percent clip they know you know it's like this is not gonna work so you're already you're getting started early with that game. You don't have to wait for anything to happen.

FanDuel is saying, hey, look, he's going to do what he's done the first two games. We're going to give you plus 360 on that for 150. So I like both of those. If you want to just kind of tone it down, maybe parlay the two alphas this week to go for $1.25. Uncorrelated, not the same game. Kind of fishy, but that's what this segment's about, right, Connors, is on the show sheet? Got to give one. week to go for a buck 25 you know uncorrelated not the same game kind of a fishy you know but that's what this segment's about right connor's is on the show sheet gotta get why i think it

did make the show sheet or that's what it would say on the show sheet plus 971 for these two guys to both get a buck and a quarter this week so we're not even 10 we're not even parlaying the 150 piece we're parlaying the 125 piece for these two guys to get it done um i just i love these prices independently uh you know it's a little sprinkle on piece for these two guys to get it done. I just, I love these prices independently. You know, it's a little sprinkle on that for these guys both to get off, I think is very interesting. Again, why would they not be a focal point of their offense? So absolutely love that.

Again, just, you know, betting on Alphas to be Alphas, Connor. Yeah, I mean, that's just the name of the game, right? You got to bet on the best players to be good. I think that that would be a lot of fun. I like that combo there. And I mean, that's, that's just the name of the game, right? You got to bet on the best players to be good. I think that that would be a lot of fun. I like that combo there. And I, I mean, the matchup's great. Like I, you know, I don't think there's anything reasonable that can dispute that other than the number is already outrageously high for Justin Jefferson.

But like, but like you said, take the alt over and said, like the difference of 25 yards, I think is, is marginal at best, you know especially when you're considering you get plus 200 instead of even money. Yeah. Well, it's wild to me that that's the, the jump that we have on the, on the JJ line, especially like he's done it both the first two games. I know that's not predictive. Uh, that's a descriptive of what's happened, but again, he's, he's such a focal point of

that offense, offensive line injuries. Again, Garrett Bradbury, probably not playing. They're still going to struggle to run the football. They're going to throw the ball a ton. So, yeah. Young and fearless, 22, said FanDuel. Won't let me put a penny on that combo, LMAO. Well, it turns out FanDuel is not young and fearless like you, brother.

So you're going to have to figure out another place to get that down on. But probably DraftKings will let you or some other site. Slop, we're old and fearless, buddy. What's up? We're old and fearless. Yeah, I'm very old and very fearless you know what hey but before we move on though you know what just to prove how fearless we are you know we could do too it's just throw nico collins in there 100 plus is plus 500 honestly he's getting that like if you've been watching their game, he's not a joke. He's a

decent receiver. And CJ Stroud just walks in to him. It's like a teddy bear. You know what I mean? He looks for him a second. Actually, he doesn't even look for him. He knows where he's at. He's already looking. But 20 targets in the first two weeks. Again, if you think they're going to get their asses kicked or at least play from a trailing – or from behind, then you're going to see some throws. And if he got 10 targets, I mean 100 yards, that's not a lot. So plus 500 does not feel like the number for him. And just like you said, if you want to just throw in 25 more yards, why not? Because he had a buck 46 last week.

But that's plus 880. Nico Collins 125 receiving yards is plus 880 at Vandal right now. This is the thing Connor has been on for a while especially when you're going to like these top guys right because the line is so high already right like you know to get to 90 yards as a median outcome that's that's a really high threshold and we know that these guys can do it. They're the best in the game, but at that point, like lean into a little bit of plus money for them to just kind of, you know, get enough. We're talking about 25 yards for Justin Jefferson to get,

we're getting almost two to one odds versus laying one 15 juice. It just makes all the sense in the world to go ahead and do this, especially when we're kind of going this high to begin with. So, know some people just out the gate or like hey i'm not going into that market i don't want to take big number overs and i get it i get it for sure that's what the segment is connor put on the show sheet so we have to do this exactly but this i just think like this is the way to do it so you know connor has led me to water over years with this you know vantage point with the alpha overs i think taking the plus money is the way to go. These are running backs.

You know what I'm saying? It's not like it's rushing yards we're doing. It's receiving yards. One of those can turn into a giant gain. If anyone can get 125 on one catch, it's Tyreek Hill. Yeah, it would be Tyreek Hill. He can get 250. I've seen him do it.

Just takes one. Yeah. Oh, man. Yeah, you guys are killing me. I've seen him do it. Just takes one. Yeah. Oh man. Yeah. You guys are, you guys are killing me. I absolutely love it. The, uh, I also want to add into that. I can't release obviously these in our discord, but just like one of the strategies that I use even on Thursday is that like, be ready for injury news and you can take advantage of that massively in the old market. So this is probably a good way to get your account limited, but I'm limited everywhere

already. So like, I kind of just put in whatever I can like Kittle alternates and Debo Samuel alternates. As soon as I went out, it was like Kittle was plus three 80 to have 75 plus receiving yards yesterday. And plus like one 20 to have 50 receiving yards. And I mean, he got there late in the game, but like the match was good. We know his splits without a Uker are really good. So like being able to hit those, but not only take advantage of like the injury news, but like like taking like getting rewarded even more if you're right which is i think is pretty important there so i thought it was a solid hit and again i can't release those because it lasts like a minute and a half but uh you know just something to take advantage of for our subs and for the listeners here yeah we do have like an extra nfl plays channel uh channel where we

will push out some of that stuff that we can't make official because it's not really fair for us to get graded on something that people can't get down on uh we you really it's kind of slimy game that we're in a little bit we try to not do that we really want to make sure that we're up and up and make sure that um you know if other people can't get down we don't get to count on his wins and losses so um a lot of you hanging out with us right oh no we can't the money still spends that's that's a different conversation that's fair yeah just the wins and loss ledger slop we want to make sure we're on the up and up a lot of you hanging out with us we appreciate that subscribe uh if you haven't already likes on the video all those things we appreciate a ton and

then jump in the chat again we'll have some time here at the end of the show because we're flying by we accidentally put together a same game parlay and we just kind of went one by one by one. So we'll have some time. Let us know what you like for week three. We'll get to as many as we can here at the tail end of the show. More memories are made when you're there for live NFL action. And when you need tickets, Ticketmaster's got you covered. As the official marketplace of the NFL, Ticketmaster gives you more ways to find your perfect seat. Their interactive seat map gives you 360 degree previews of your section to make sure you have the best

views of those pivotal plays. And if your plans change, Ticketmaster gives you more flexibility to sell or transfer your tickets. Plus, mobile tickets make getting in on game day a breeze. You can even customize your Ticketmaster app to rep your team's colors. Find tickets today at Ticketmaster.com slash NFL. Back to the normals, I would say. Connor, what's your next normal play for week three? Yeah, much more on-brand play for me. I'm going to go with Miles Sanders under 80 and a half rushing and receiving yards combo. He's seen a ton of work. I get it. And I don't necessarily expect that to change here, but he needs to be

reasonably efficient with it in a tough spot against Seattle, who's actually been really good at defending running backs this year so far. So we're looking at Seattle just 0.37 yards before contact their fourth and DVO a defending running backs in the passing game as well, allowing just 2.7 yards per carry so far. And they have a 77% success rate at stopping running backs on the season. So I think we're looking at 80 and a half rushing receiving yards just being like way, way too high. I mean, the only guy who's really had success with them out of the backfield so far this season would be Jameer Gibbs. And Jameer Gibbs is like a significantly better pass catcher than a guy like Miles Sanders, who's averaging, I think it's 2.7 yards per target, 4.3 yards per catch so far as a season. Like he's not a very good pass catcher. He can catch the

ball, but that's not a thing there. And I also think that there's a legitimate outcome here where the Panthers pass a little bit more because they have Andy Dalton in their center and not Bryce Young. They didn't want to feed Bryce Young to the Wolves, even though he ended up getting swallowed anyways by, you know, him. But now at this point, Andy Dalton, I think that they're going to probably try and pass a little bit more. So in this spot here against like a little bit of weaker Seattle secondary and a front that's played really well so far to start the season,

I think that Miles Sanders going under his total here is a pretty good look. Yeah, I like it. This is definitely feels more like a Conor Allen play for sure. Slop, any Miles Sanders takes? No. He said under. I just immediately stopped listening to that. I'm good.

I had to pour a big bucket of cold water right on Slop. Just get the unders going right back to it. I was like, man, I can't free myself to do it. I'd rather lose. I'd rather lose. It's one of those bets that you're winning until you're not. So that's the – Yeah.

That's what the under guys will tell you. And I did like it like a little bit. Just the sweat factor of them. They do get very fun. It's just I think Conor is a psychopath for going like on the low numbers. You know what I mean? Under, it's like, wow, man, like you're really like skirting the edge right there, which is awesome.

But again, you start watching, you start to realize like, oh shit, this guy like just breaks a tackle. Like I lost. It's like, man, Connor lives on the edge. One of my fringe plays yesterday was Paris Campbell, 28 and a half yards in the under. He had like six catches and he only got 24, 24 yards. I didn't end up playing it officially, but I was like, God, this has been the worst sweat ever.

But like the best under sweats, like Zach Wilson under sweats are awesome. I mean, like just watching him just like turn into a cupcake all game is like, honestly highlight moments for me. Like I just, it just makes it so great. But I mean the, the 70 yard house call from Gary Wilson was, uh, made things a little bit sweaty last week, but you know, in the future I would actually recommend that. Yeah. I can't stomach the bad quarterback under 170 passing stuff. Like it's, I get it. I get their bad quarterbacks, man. Like there's, yeah, it's just, uh, I've seen lots of those cash and I've seen lots of those, uh, end poorly very late

in the fourth quarter. It's so scary. And you're just yelling at your TV like, why are you even throwing anymore? You're getting your asses kicked. And yet here we are. You're going to get 100 yards in the fourth quarter and you've been horrible the whole game. It's just rough. It's tough.

It takes years off your life, guys. I'm telling you it does. That's why Connor looks like us. Yeah, that's the reason why I'm wearing hats over here and I'm not showing my lettuce or lack thereof. Taking way too many years off my life. Just shave it. I'll tell you, that's what I did and it was perfect. I felt great after that.

You look great, buddy. I think, actually, according to our 4-4 contracts, legally, we're not allowed to have three people who are bald with beards, including John Daigle and Paulson. I think there's a lot of scruff. contracts like legally we're not allowed to have three people who are bald with beards uh including john dagel and paulson uh i think there's a lot of scruff so uh we're not allowed to do that yet so i have to wait until you know someone's contracts got to expire before i can shave my head you know a lot of balls over here a lot of balls we were gonna hire derrick brown but uh we

couldn't hire d bro contractually because of that. Yeah, what are you going to do, man? Hands are tied. All right, Slop. Floor is yours for the third one. I will go – I think this is a Sunday night game, the Steelers-Raiders. But Jalen Warren is going to catch three balls. His number is 2.5 over his plus 105. I got it earlier for a little bit better. It was like plus 110, but plus 105 is fine.

I would do that 100 out of 100 times. And I don't know, if you watched last game, they want to throw the ball to him. Like that's a thing, you know, like he gets targeted a bunch. I think he got targeted like six times. I don't think game script's totally going to matter, but I think that the Raiders might play from in front of them or at least keep it going by scoring themselves. You're probably

always going to be in your pass mode. You're not going to see the Steelers sitting on the ball ever on this game, I don't think. Three catches, that's not a lot. I feel like that's probably one of the easier plays, besides the Elijah Moore play. It's probably one of the easiest plays on the board right now it's probably one of the easier more easiest plays on the board right now yeah I like that we have maybe I don't

want to say a changing of the guard but I think we did hear a little bit after the game I'm talking about uh you know Jalen Warren is improving this maybe earns more looks and more work Connor any thoughts on uh on Warren here anything going on in that Pittsburgh backfield moving forward yeah I think that's the move there from slop um I don't know how I want to play it. I think that probably makes the most sense. Those receptions receiving over something like that, because I mean, it's just very clear. Now you hear sucks. The Steelers, I do think want to probably get back to the ground game because Kenny Pickett just been a little bit careless at times with the ball. And I think that they probably want to rely on that a little bit more. So maybe a rushing receiving over for him too.

But I think it's just a little changing of the guard here. Like Mike Tomlin's already walking it back. You already said this week. He's like, yeah, you know, he's looked good. He's earned more, probably earned more opportunities going forward, even though all off season, he was like, nope, now he's our starter. Now he's the guy, blah, blah, blah. And it's just very clear that that shouldn't be the case.

I think not having Johnson helps too. Deontay Johnson, just because you can kind of slide this guy in the field here and there. I mean, I'm not sure how much that played into it, but again, he had targets six times last year. It was so obvious that they like him. They want him with the ball. So give me one more week of Najee running and Jalen catching.

Just one more. That's all I'm asking for I'm gonna stay in the same game we're gonna do more same game parlay action here yeah this is we're not even playing in this this is uh oh baby mentioned on the not on the show sheets this is a uh a banger that we've done this was almost like an automatic play for us uh four for four subs last year um but we're staying in that same spot the steelers we're gonna grab pat fryer muth over three and a half receptions this is plus 120 on bet 365 plus 118 on rivers uh 115 on mgm 110 on dk we got a little squeaky wheel narrative here been a really bad

start for fryer muth has not been heavily involved uh the Raiders are a place that you can get rights. And look, I mean, they played the 49ers and the Browns, probably two of the best defensive teams in the entire league. The underlying metrics here are really good for Frymuth. He's second among all tight ends in routes run. He's not losing playing time, so there's no concerns there. He's been bad. But look, the Raiders have allowed on average, eight catches and 56 yards per game, the tight ends through the first two weeks. Now we have no Dion Johnson, Deontay Johnson. So like, again, I just think we're going to have him be a bigger piece of the puzzle. You get a lot of Pittsburgh beats talking about Friday. Who's going to be involved. They're

asking him questions about his involvement. Are you mad about it? We would routinely smash this at four and a half last year. So we get three and a half here and we get plus money. It's not like just barely plus money. It probably will be by the time you listen to this in the podcast, because I think we have some people firing already, but three and a half plus one 20 on bet three, six, five plus money across the board. Absolutely love Fryer moves in this spot. Just think he's going to be involved in the Raiders or a place to get well. So Connor, any thoughts on our guy Muth? Yeah, this is the Muth bounce back spot too. If you look at his first two weeks, I mean, they're both against like super tough

tight end teams, like historically. So like Cleveland, I think is loud, like two or three catches only total tight ends in the first two weeks. And so it's not really that surprising, I guess, in hindsight, like I think that we could be looking back here in a couple of weeks and be like, Oh wow. Like that, you know, fire move seven for 80 game, you know, and a touchdown here shouldn't have been that surprising against his Raiders team, you know, especially without Deontay Johnson, like you mentioned, I don't think George Pickens is going to see in the same target chair that he always sees. Now that being said that the match was still pretty good. So I was eyeing this, I was hoping maybe I was getting a little too greedy that we were going to get a two and a half,

maybe the reason he buys me to add. Yeah. But I think a plus money was getting a little too greedy that we were going to get a 2.5. Maybe the reason he buys 3.2 at. I think a plus money 3.5 might be the move here. Thoughts on Frymuth's slop? Kind of laid out similar cases. I think Connor just said, what did you say? 7 for 80?

If that happened, we could just go 75 plus receiving yards plus 650. They turn into a party. I'm a big Yeah, what do we got? If that happened, we could just go 75-plus receiving yards plus 650. You know what I mean? They'd turn it into a party. But, no, I'm a big Pat Fieryman guy. And, as you know, I love the tight ends. Love them.

So, I don't have one yet this week. And that might end up being my guy. He was my guy last year. He was my guy that – Oh, yeah, he was a stud. He's a great receptions guy. I like him more for receptions than receiving yards. But, man, I kind of stud. He's a great receptions guy. I like him more for receptions than receiving yards.

But, man, I kind of want to take the yards now. Connor just said that. Yeah, I always like receptions. Yeah, with him it's receptions, I think. Because they do those weird really close-to-line scrimmage things with him. I mean, they want to get the ball in his hands immediately. So sometimes you get those. I always want to kick myself on the guy's five catches for 20 yards. I knew that was going to happen, but I took over 35 yards or something like that.

I think you're right in the right spot, three and a half. That's a gift number at a great price. I'd be concerned, too, as I was looking at the box score. You're not going to find anything in the box score that's going to make you feel good about this play if you're just looking at 20, 23 box scores. But I was looking at just the routes run. I'm like, oh, he's still in the field as much as he was last year and as much as anyone at the position.

So, like, it just is a matter of time, especially when you start to get asked all the time. It's happening every time you get to the locker after practice. They're coming over like, are you going to be more involved this week? I saw him. You know, I saw a little presser. I was digging into this a little bit, and he kind of seemed annoyed. And I just feel like, all right, they're going to get moves involved early.

We feel good about this one by the half. We'll be looking at some alt overs by the time halftime rolls around there. And it's a primetime game. So we like to have, you know, a primetime win in the pocket as we kind of, you know, sweat the other late stuff we get there. So, yeah, going to be a good one. All right. Again, we're're gonna get to your questions i'm gonna give you some uh thoughts on tackles slow release on tackles so far we've only got a couple of games out only got two official tackle plays posted for subscribers can't share those with you because first of all you

didn't subscribe necessarily uh if you did you already got it uh Also, the numbers are dead. So who cares? What do you want to know? But a couple that haven't come out yet. We're going to do a little bit of tackle lessons in terms of what we want to do. We have a couple of safeties here this week. We'll talk about safeties who play in the box. Probably makes a lot of sense to you. If you are up closer to the line of scrimmage pre-snap, down by where the linebackers are, it's an ideal setup. You're more likely to get closer to the ball. That's why linebackers typically average more tackles than anyone else. Some teams play almost exclusively too high.

They keep both their safeties back. Some do single high safety, and that guy maybe plays way off the line of scrimmage. He's only getting stuff if things go really poorly. We want ideally bad team box safeties that are going to have, you know, maybe some negative game script against them. So best place to start is with the Arizona Cardinals. Kayvon Wallace, first year in Arizona, came over from Philly with Jonathan Gannon.

He is now playing every down with Buda Baker out with a hammy injury. He's playing a role that really didn't exist previously. He is in the – if we get like box rate for a safety at like 30%, 35%, it's awesome. Last week, Wallace was in the box 65% of the snaps. Seven tackles on limited work in week one. Eight last week taking over a full-time job. He's probably going to be posted at like five and a half, maybe four and a half, to be honest. And absolutely great spot. The

Cowboys have been a great place to go against safeties as well. Last year, safeties against them averaged 15.3 tackles and assists per game. It's the highest rate in the league. Through two weeks, it's 18 and a5, which is four more than the league average. So Kayvon Wallace, Arizona Cardinals, probably 4.5 or 5.5. We're going to take the over. I have him projected for 8.2. So if you have the ability to maybe ladder, bet 365. If you have prop builder or something like that.

Desperately need our friends at FanDuel. It's getting the mix on the tackle side, but those are going to be available for you. Same lane. Julian Blackman for the Colts. Colts are about eight and a half point dogs on the road here in Baltimore. Same situation, new role for Blackman this year, 51.4% of his snaps in week one are in the box, 46 and change last week. High volume team, the Colts even without Anthony Richardson last week were playing with tempo. Blackman had six tackles in week one, ten in week two. Great spot. Tom Munkin is kind of turning it up, and that's another spot.

Like, look, where's Lamar play? Plays over the middle of the field. Slots. Andrews, you know, they'll run a bunch in this game. Absolutely love this spot for Blackman. Again, expect probably another five and a half. I have him uh closer to seven so really hoping that we get those numbers for those two guys box safeties again you want to

be in the discord 444.com slash plans get that sub get these things out last week was uh we had a little bugaboo official plays were eight and three on the tackle side um nine and three for me because uh you know we got we got a cash uh mgm cashed us out before we got a post-game correction um so hey money was in the account slop we didn't count as an official play but the money spends the same eight and three for the official plays last week in the tackle side so there's fair there's fair yeah money's green we also talked about that brian young or byron young or whatever last week. Just emptied the clip on him. And he ended up giving five tackles, but still, we need it under six and a half.

I mean, you know, in tackle streets, it's not even close. Yeah. Didn't even count. Yeah, right. We got there last week. Yeah. Two and one on the ones on the show last week too. So our guy Alex.

Somebody just thanked Connor for getting back to the unders. Let's go. IG, my family right there. Unders gang, baby. Tough. Tough scene. Any other – we got some time before we get to questions. Do you guys have anything else that you have on the dock?

Anything that you're, like, looking for based off of any news? We've had some injury news. It looks like Justice Hill's out. Do we have any interest in maybe gus edwards connor or anything like that in a positive game script we're gonna get more you know melvin gordon than we want anything else maybe kind of on your radar that hasn't come out yet um i have one another one queued up for monday that i don't want to release yet officially but i think that yes i'll sit on that one but i think that like maybe some Sam Laporta stuff

could be interesting. Luke Musgrave unders are going to be a smash. Those are going to be like 30 receiving yards. Exactly what you guys don't like, but New Orleans is just sick against tight ends and Musgrave like really still isn't even that involved. Might get a little Aaron Jones back. Might get a little Christian Watson back.

Probably not Christian Watson, but probably Aaron Jones. So, yeah, I don't know. There's a couple of things there. Nothing fun. I don't want to bore Slop with my unders. But, yeah, I got like five, six more written down that I'm just waiting for some props. Yeah, Slop would be honestly disgusted if he saw my full card.

I think it's like I try and make sure that i have like 70 to 80 percent unders each week yeah i mean think about like if you call me hey slop let's go watch the games like we showed up and we sit down at the bar like you got your sheet of what we got i'd just be like what like what are you doing like really you're gonna do this like we're just gonna sit here and like all right the psychopath it's wild i mean it i say this all the time in betton though like it you find what like works for you like how your brain works and like how you break down these games and you just go with that you know like whatever that is like that's pretty much what you should do and connor enjoys other people not doing well so that's fine yeah and it's just because like so dan

rivera tracks all of our stuff and it's every year, like the first couple of years I'm seeing, I'm looking at it and it's like, unders 60%, 63% overs like 50%, like, Oh, 52%. And I'm like, what, like, what am I doing? Like, you know, like, why don't I just win money instead of losing money? Like, so then I was like, all right, well, I'm just going to bet, you know, you're right. It can be that simple. Then I'm just like, all right, I'm going to bet some more unders, you know? It goes through with like tracking your bets. Do simple. Then I'm just like, all right, I'm going to bet some more on this. That's all it is. It goes with tracking your bets. Do you know what I mean?

That's the first step to becoming an adult. You actually kind of track and pay attention to price. Yeah, you start to notice, man, I'm pretty good at this. I really suck at that. Why would you do the thing you suck at? You know what I mean? It is about money, but a lot of times it's about when you're watching the game like you kind of want to have fun you want to enjoy yourself like like i never enjoy myself when i'm watching it like your guys just getting throttled you know what i mean it's like

why did i bet this so yeah find out what you're good at and just do it the key is to have a mix of alternate overs and then on a lot of unders that's that's where i like i've settled in a nice little happy medium yeah it's good my first tackle play of the week was an under i will not be watching that game because uh it's a linebacker under two yeah it's like a man yeah it's not guy makes a great play and you're like pissed at him you know what i mean like it's like this sucks like i don't want to do this but we got a lot of questions by the way we got a lot of pretty good pretty good questions this week yeah we're gonna're going to get to them. Slop, anything on the radar for you that hasn't come up yet?

So I'm kind of like – I don't know if I'm interested. I might be interested. It's like the Panthers receivers. Feels like a pretty good spot to maybe grab like a cheap, I don't know, Adam Thielen something. I don't even know. Mingo. I'm going to look into it.

There has to be something there. Thielen is plus money for over three and a half receptions. Yeah, it's like kind of interesting. Red rifle. Legally not able to pull the trigger on that, but I support you guys. I know. I'm not betting it necessarily. Yeah, it's scary.

You don't need to say it. But at the same time, you're like, he's going to have to throw to somebody. I don't know. We'll see. We'll see what I come up with. And then also to Minshew. But I think it's raining in Baltimore. So that ruins that.

They're playing the Ravens, aren't they? That's what I have on my list too. Zay overs, Andrews overs, also Nelson Aguilar overs instead of Rashad Bateman. Bateman is still a rotational player. Aguilar filled in once OBJ went out and played all the snaps. If you get an Aguilar number in the 20s, which I think we'll probably get, maybe low 30s,

it could hit some alts on him for sure because he's going to play more than Bateman probably. No, it's a great call. What do you think about the rain? Does rain hurt your opinion? I know Noonan doesn't care about rain. We had Chris Allen. He used to be a serious weatherman.

He was running in-depth studies on what actually matters and stuff. So I just hit him up and followed his advice. Basically, he said wind doesn't matter until 15 miles miles per hour even then it doesn't matter usually till 20 so i'm not gonna see that yeah 20 miles per hour and then rain doesn't matter unless it's like a torrential downpour generally like maybe it affects some players more than others but like really it just generally doesn't matter so i think that the dog agrees the dog agrees i i love to see it so zay flowers over his andrews overs i haven't i'm waiting a little bit just to make sure i mean a hurricane could be a big deal like that that's why i'm like waiting a little bit you know what i mean

like sure if it was just regular rain you know on there i'd be like oh whatever but the forecast looks like nothing right now yeah it looks like rain up and down the east coast but yeah it's the we're gonna get those wind reports as they kind of get dialed in will be something same like andrew's four and a half receptions it's like minus 105 like dude that's just another bet that we would make continuously at five and a half like you know so that one's that one caught my interest too and thought maybe it'd be on slops radar because uh that's the thing the one for me is is uh jameer gibbs receiving i don't think with so i think we're waiting for David Montgomery to officially be ruled out before they post any Gibbs stuff

that hadn't happened. I think he's out too. He hasn't practiced, but that's why he's not on the board anywhere. I talked about it a little bit on our Wednesday show, breaking down that game. I wanted to – No, no, no. I can sit on this.

We can talk about it offline. I think I got it. I'm like a dog whisperer. I think I got this. It's so nice dog whisperer. I think I got this. It's so nice here today that like we left the windows open, probably not the best idea now that I think about it. It was a great idea a while ago. That's a move the line first in five years getting shushed on there.

I absolutely love to see it. That's incredible. I opened a different tab to look at my notes. I was like, wait a second. Is he shushing me? I'm looking at my notes real quick. What just happened? So Gibbs, again, don't think he sees a massive, like,

traditional workload with Montgomery out. But I think we see a continued uptick in terms of his passing game work. And I talked about this on Wednesday. We've been targeting mobile quarterbacks against man defenses for years with success. And, again, it just makes sense intuitively like when a defense is in zone no one's taking their eyes off the quarterback in man it's quite different for the most part right right you see some guys will have to turn their back they're chasing their guy around well i wanted to dig in

and see if the math actually lines up with that and it does look back to last season in the first two weeks of this season looking at running back receptions, running backs against zone again, over that sample size average 7.08 yards per reception against zone. Same timeframe against man coverage, 8.9 yards per reception. That is a massive, almost two yard spike in per reception numbers for running backs. Ryan Nielsen, new defensive coordinator for the Falcons, comes over from New Orleans. They play a ton of man.

He has the Falcons playing at the fifth highest rate in the league. So we're just going to see a continued uptick. We saw like last week he was up to like 57% route participation after like 25 in week one. It looks like even though we're going to have Amon Rod probably playing here, I just, I don't think that they want to do a lot of like Craig Reynolds stuff here. So I think whether it's swing passes to Gibbs out, they put him in the slot a bunch last week.

I just think he's heavily involved. I don't know if that's going to be a yardage play, a longest reception receptions over, like, I don't know what it is because we don't have numbers, but I'm going to want to try to get a piece of something Gibbs receiving related, I think. So that's a, that's the one I'm looking at still. Love it. I'm going to want to try to get a piece of something Gibbs receiving related, I think.

So that's the one I'm looking at still. Love it. I'm getting roasted in the chat right now. Let's get some questions. Hurricane could be a big deal, quote, is the hard-hitting advice I came here for, Connor. Yeah, you know, it's local weatherman here. Just give me the hard-hitting news. Try arguing against that. Yeah, I mean, you're going to tell me a hurricane isn't a big deal, Ryan?

I mean, you know, come on. I can't believe we outsourced our weather stuff to Chris Allen. When really Connor used to – Connor, not a lot of people know this. Connor used to write a weather report on the site formerly known as rotoworld.com weekly. So Connor also, you know, pretty in the weeds in terms of weather preparation. So don't sell yourself short, buddy. I know not a lot of people were reading that back in the day, five, six years

ago, but I, you know, I used to read it. So yeah, you know, just, I would literally have a template for some of the games where nothing would matter because they had to include every game. So like 10 of the games each week are just like 70 and sunny. So I'm like literally copying and pasting, like weather looks great. Player X should be great. And then just like insert the names. And then the other games that mattered,

I could actually throw something in there. But, yeesh, that was rough times, grinding out the blurbs and whatever, player weather news for Roto World. You know, rest in peace. Living the dream, Connor. Had to get here somehow, right? All right, 10 minutes left for your questions.

Again, if you're hanging out and you have some, throw them in. We'll try to get to them here. We will start with Josh Allen. You guys got Josh Allen throwing one-and-a-half passing touchdowns this week. I don't think he throws one-and-a-half slops. It's hard to do. Yeah. What's the price?

Like, I'll bet anything for the right price. You know what I mean? But, like, if there's no price, then I don't even know what to, like, I don't know, like, he might. If you tell me that's plus 200, then, yeah, I think he's doing it. You know what I mean? But like, if there's no price, then I don't even know what to, like, I don't know, like, he might. If you tell me that's plus 200, then yeah, I think he's doing it. You know what I mean?

If that's minus 200, no, he's not doing it. Like, you know what I mean? Like, that's, so we need price.

Come on. She'll love, I don't think that's the real name. She love K. She love K. She love K. Yeah, I would guess,

I think it's minus 120. I'm seeing on MGMDK. Minus 148 on the over on FanDuel. So, I would guess. I think it's minus 120 I'm seeing on MGMDK. Minus 148 on the over on FanDuel. So I don't know. Meh. I bet the Bills team total over. I'm pro Bills in the spot. So I can get there.

Any points are good points. Any points are good points. Sam. What's up, Sam? Wagman in the house. He likes a Watson over 20.5 completions. Makes sense. Short to intermediate routes.

We kind of hung our hat on some pro Watson completions and stuff earlier, so no issues with that. Brian wants to know about Desmond Ritter. Over 13 rushing. He's got a price here. Minus 135 on DK. Shout out to Brian. Thank you for the price.

Ten attempts last week. A lot of dropbacks, a lot of plays there. Again, this is kind of fits the mode of Detroit playing a decent amount of man. Connor, any thoughts on Desmond Ritter over 13 rushing yards here? Yeah,

I was looking into this. I kind of like it actually. So as he had like 10 rush attempts last week, I think a lot of it has to do with whether he's dropping back and passing a little bit more. And so in this game against Detroit, I think he probably will have to do that. Like think a lot of it has to do with whether he's dropping back and passing a little bit more. And so in this game against Detroit, I think he probably will have to do that. It should push them to at least throw a little bit. If Atlanta's just going to be able to sit back and run,

I have no interest in backing it over on this. But I mean, I can get there. I think it's kind of interesting. Any thoughts from you on that? So the design run rate was 13%, which is nice. 4% in week one. 13% design. He didn't nice. 4% in week one, 13 design. He didn't scramble at all in week one, 13% scramble rate too last week. So that's why we saw the spike there.

So yeah, I mean, if there's some actual design, like, you know, 4% design run rate on 22 drop, that means it's one in week one. So like this, it sounds like there was some more design runs uh on the 38 dropbacks last week so yeah that's uh that's interesting even 13 yards you could do that on one play so and again this is the man theory too which i think is important to focus on so yeah i like it i lean over there um meg shout out meg uh hangs out with us typically on the stream we appreciate it he likes jordan addison over 22 and a half longest reception.

Totally get it. He's been doing that. You know, just the mindset of, Hey, look, he's not going to be seeing double coverage. A lot of attention played to Justin Jefferson, you know,

in a game where we expect to be up tempo 53 and change or whatever is the total there up in pace, a lot of plays a long reception. I like that quite a bit. Slop. What do you think? Nobody has given up more receiving yards to receivers i think than the chargers so far i mean it's only been two games

but like there's two teams that have played three games and still aren't what they've given up so yeah like that's i i was looking at that one this morning i was trying to think how i could get there with like making it a plus money move but there there's no such market. But yeah, no, I liked that one a lot. Yes. And we I'm assuming that probably even, even money is probably what we're at there too. It was like, it was early. It was literally like minus one 10. It was, it was almost a coin flip bet. So yeah. Jim Bob leaving the work to us in this one.

Love for most rushing and receiving overs. We don't have the number or a price. Um, just any Connor, any like just conceptual most dirt, uh, thoughts while we can try to pull the number here, but, uh, you know, in a matchup against Denver, um, any thoughts here on most of it? I got a, uh, the unabated odd screen loaded. So I just found it. It's a 79 and a half minus one 15.

I don't know. I just think I like Tyreek or, you know, if you want to bet some other overs, you don't like Tyreek play some river Craycraft. There's some Braxton barriers. I mean, I think it's worth noting Damari Mathis right now is allowed 15 of 17 reception so far, like 170 receiving yards, just getting absolutely wrecked. Like literally one of the worst corners in the NFL right now, according to pro football focus and what they've tracked him for. And then one of the other corners too, he's a lot of like 90 yards on like eight out of eight, you know, eight targets, all eight of them have caught. So like Patrick Sertan, awesome. But there's only so awesome you can be if you're one corner and like the rest of the field is basically open. Also Justin Simmons, I think Brian brought this up in the chat too, but Justin Simmons doesn't

think he's going to play either. They're safe. So what's going to happen here? I mean, you have a red hot Dolphins team coming in against a beat up and not very good. It seems like Denver secondary at this point. So we'll see. Caden Stearns is their backup safety.

He got hurt in week one. He's out for the season. So they are like, it's not even the backup coming in for Simmons. If he's out, this is a guy that was, you know, probably selling insurance a couple of months ago.

He was just getting called up and padded up. So tough, tough scene in the back half for, for Denver here. If Simmons is officially ruled out, which I don't think we, Brian would know he is plugged into our, our fantasy life push notifications there.

So David talking about fields and str Stroud overpassing last week, but playing Niner stuff, no pretty touchdowns. I'm not sure if that's a question. I'm not sure why we – Connor, did you pick this one? I must have accidentally hit it. But, yeah, I do want to note that Rams Rams play one of the highest rates of two high shells. I noticed that in your sheet that you, you produced.

And so I think they've been doing a good job of just keeping things in front of them, which is worth noting. Way to save that Connor. Good job. There you go. Watson over two 27. Did you play two 22 Connor? Is that what you played? Yeah. Two 22. I said said play up to 230 i think it's about right i mean i only like 300 so neither the number won't matter but you know

it's fine either way i think number won't even matter here uh let's see cap wise thoughts on matt jones under uh some alt totals on uh over on cook or hall any thoughts on on kind of, again, a gross game. We might have weather there, a slop on the East Coast. Again, I think the total is 36, 37. I'm not expecting a lot there. What are your thoughts on Mack or any of the Jets running, Max? Well, it would depend on what the number is and the price. So that would be big.

Also, tell me it's an under, so I'm immediately out on that. But you could think of this as an over on how bad Mac Jones will be against the Jets defense. So there is that. I would much rather look into Stevenson in the receiving game. I think there's something to be found

there just because I bet they want to get him the ball and they know that they're not going to be able to run the ball on the jets or they not you know as effectively as they want to so if I'm looking at anything that game would be Stevenson but Mac Jones under it probably wouldn't be that bad but again I'd like to know the number and the price before yeah we're looking at uh 213 and a half uh for passing yards that's what you wonder yeah I I think I was kind of hoping for some like two twenties there. I think it opened around there,

uh, which I was just waiting for more outs to develop to 13. I think Mac actually had a pretty good game at one. One of his games gets the jets last season. Um, I played this at a different angle. I played some Devante Parker unders draws the outside receiver played just 7% in slot.

Uh, and you know, I had like 19 total yards last season and two games against them on the outside. So I thought that his unders were pretty interesting there. Also, shout out Ben Carey and Capwise. Good dudes over there doing some good work. So I appreciate you guys tuning into the stream. Thanks, Ben.

Appreciate that. Connor, didn't you say you could cover Devontae Parker? I did. Last year on the show, I said I could cover Devontae Parker. You know what sucks is like I think that Corlin Sutton is like Devante Parker West. Like they, they both just stink. And so I almost went back and hit some more Corlin Sutton under,

I played that a different way. But yeah, I think Devante Parker is like trash. I think he's like literally garbage. He gets any good corner. Brian is going to Jacksonville this weekend for the game. Any bar suggestions? Slop, you're a Florida man originally, right?

Do you have any Jacksonville? South Florida, then Central Florida. Okay. And then that was also, I left in like 08. So yeah, it's been, my bar days in Jacksonville never really happened. That feels more like Georgia up there than Florida really. But I'll tell you this, I bet you there are some very good bars in Jacksonville to watch – to go to and watch games.

So I think you're going to be fine no matter where you choose. Yeah, my Florida experience has mostly been, you know, Siesta Key, Sarasota-ish, but never into the Jacksville area. Did, you know, a family have done like the drive down to Disney and did stop one time at a Popeye's right around the Florida Georgia line. And which I know is a band. I don't do country music, but it literally is a different language. Those people speak a – I could not order through Popeye's at the drive-thru because I didn't – It's spicy chicken sandwich, and you're all set. Can I get six spicy tenders? I'm sorry.

The panhandle is pretty much like Alabama. You know what I mean? And then you get to the middle and that's everywhere. I loved Orlando. I mean, no offense. I mean, no offense. And then you go down south and South Florida is just like, I don't even know what that is.

Where's Panama City Beach? I've been there before for spring break. That's the Redneck Riviera, I believe it's called. That's Alabama, basically basically that's very fun though like i've had fun in all those i'm not saying i'm not knocking anywhere i'm just saying it's just different wherever you go it's not like because like people think oh florida that's all beaches and whatever it's like yeah not not so much it's it's it's tough to explain yeah i mean this is a true story and going inside i still couldn't

get it done the guy the cashier was talking to these dudes in the corner right through i had no idea what they were talking about they're laughing i thought they were laughing at me they definitely were not it turns out but like it just again they might have been they might have been so what did you end up eating i did end up eating i pointed to the sign um that helped the time you're in a different country you're like i want that yeah i mean like again no offense if that's you're from that you know neck of the woods it just was a very wild experience you know i mean i'm not a east coast elitist you know i i grew up in the you know boston area i'm here in chicago now just you know

we have our accents but it's a little it's definitely i think you can understand it it was very hard to parse through the conversations that were going on in uh in the popeyes there at the uh florida and uh in georgia border there's a lot of fun at the popeyes down there i'll tell you that waffle house too grads living you know you hit both those in the same day yeah that's a great day love justin wants to know about robert woods over three and a half receptions i get scared yeah robert woods yeah i i do like him like as a man but what's the price too again even i think or whatever 15 minus 115 probably not i'd go fire moved over him in my uh you know what i mean like my back flip yeah brian wants to know about the saints backfield i would love to get some kendry miller

stuff me too that was one you asked me earlier that that guy that the that injury situation i kind of want to know about that one so yeah good call brian yeah tony jones is not the guy uh this is a nice little setup for kendry if he can can get a little bit of runway, we could see some splash plays. Because we really haven't seen him, I think he probably had a pretty low number in terms of what's coming out here. Last is from Sick Keys. I mean, yeah, doing your first prize picks, do I go big? I mean, absolutely you go big on prize picks.

You cannot tiptoe into that. There's no reason to scale back just because you're doing five legs, six legs. No, six legs. Yeah. You do not tiptoe into price picks. First of all, you're on price picks. Yeah, you dive right in. I would recommend, to be honest with you,

if we want to get serious real quick, is you definitely want to do five and six pick flexes, but you also want to scale back your units. Like if you're betting a hundred bucks a game or per unit, you might want to go like 1% or I mean, if you, I don't think you can even do dollar ones on price picks or whatever the lowest one is,

you would do that. But, uh, over time, five and six big flexes are, that's pretty much where it's at. Just get used to losing because you're going to lose a lot of those before you win. But over time, again, it's about ROI.

And that's how those sites get you. Yeah. The important thing to note is that basically no one wins on prize picks. So you need to make sure that you're being smart. Make sure that you have enough money to sustain like 10 to 15 plays before you might even win one on five legs. Like, to be honest, like it just happens. Even if you're winning 80%, like at the time, like, you know, that doesn't 80% doesn't get you there to a full slip. Like you're just not barely making your money back. So you got to run hot. Personally,

I think the best way I use these all the time is that you basically take advantage of their stale lines, uh, and like-market things, things that they offer. Yeah, that's just the way to get rid of it. Seriously. I'm dead serious when I say that. Friday night's the night to get them. All the injury news is out. People are reacting to it, and they just sit there.

Right. I bet you Tyreek's receptions are still going to be at 6.5. If Waddle gets announced out, it'll be like seven and a half at every sports book by the time it closes and still be six and a half on prize picks for another hour. So those are, that in my mind is the best way to actually make money in those. And then they'll move it slowly. They'll move to seven before they jump up to seven and a half.

So like, you know, again, those aren't fun. I typically want to get the half cause I want to win it. I hate the pushes, but hey, if you can push a leg and your sixer becomes a five because you pushed,

that helps you too. So, yeah, those sites are tricky. The math does tell you, believe it or not, to kind of go big in terms of the number of likes. I thought Conor was coming in here slopped with a two-leg under plus EV price. Dude, for one, don't say two-leg. No, no, no. It's like that's the biggest trick there is.

Oh, you win more. But yeah, you win more times. But you win less money. And it's like you're just falling right into the trap. It's plus 200. It's like not even good odds. Nope. Nope.

It's really hard. I mean, they'll pay you three times. It's like, no, they don't. They include your stake in the pay. So it's plus 200. Yeah. All right. So that's good stuff uh appreciate everyone hanging out with us we have uh you know we've turned in you could be a uh you know join here you go to youtube.com four four bets and join you get badges there's different things you can do get exclusive stuff by hanging out with us i don't know enough

about it but uh producer sal tells us you can get loyalty badges. There are custom emojis, priority replies and videos and comments and stuff like that. So channel membership features for the betting channel, 444.com. Here you go right here on the screen, 444 bets slash membership. Find out more information there. Come hang out with us again, supporting the free content. We really information there. Come hang out with us again, Supreme supporting the free content. We really appreciate that. So shout out to producer Sal for hanging that out for us and getting that all set up. So good stuff as always betting sub promo code week to get to 25% off.

Don't forget to go over to odds jam and at slop rules on Twitter. What else am I forgetting? Slop? DGF Fantasy. I've been using their optimizer quite a bit lately, and it's awesome. So if you go over there and check it out, they have a correlation tool that I really like. I think you guys will like it too because they're including punters

in these tickets, which is very fun. It's just a unique way of kind of looking at correlations, but they do correlate into these slips, and these sites are letting us correlate so why not right yep love it and again don't forget to check out odds jam lots of great content and stuff going on for uh slop over there as well and uh yeah we appreciate it again come back subscribe write review no matter where you are we'll be back on wednesday for Week 5's game previews. But I hope to see a lot of you in the Discord. Be grinding and sweating out those winners this weekend.

So for Connor, it's Slop. I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody. Yeah! you