Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 3 PROPS | Top Prop Bets, Predictions & Picks

Episode Date: September 24, 2022

Experts Ryan Noonan, Connor Allen & Pat Mayo share their top Week 3 NFL player prop bets. Tail them as they hand out their top picks, highlight the best betting odds & share their predictions.Timestamps: 0:00 Intro4:22 Connor Bet #1 8:13 Pat Bet #1  8:36 Ryan Bet #1 13:16 Connor Bet #2 16:56 Pat Bet #2 19:35 Ryan Bet #2 24:13 Connor Bet #3 26:27 Pat Bet #330:35 Ryan Bet #333:08 Connor Bet #438:07 Pat Bet #4 42:33 Ryan Bet #4 45:49 Thrive Props48:50 Q+A 1:01:44 PROP TOOL BET OF THE WEEK1:03:22 Outro Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansMove the Line: Prop Drop is sponsored by Thrive Fantasy. Use Promo Code PROPDROP when signing up & you will receive a 100% instant first deposit match up to $250 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3RQQHRuFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Betting on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4BetsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Pat on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ThePMEVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Prop Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TWC40v4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3pQ2tQ14for4 Player Prop Finder 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wxTcQc4for4 Player Prop Odds Comparison Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3AQ5TbK

Hello and welcome to Move the Line Prop Drop Show presented by Thrive Fantasy. I'm Ryan Noonan. Here as always in the space every Friday 2 p.m eastern to talk about the best and most profitable way to bet on NFL football and that is player props. If you're hanging out with us live on YouTube subscribe so you don't miss a show. Jump in the chat let us know what your favorite prop is for week three. Something you're on the fence about. Something you want to get our thoughts on. Happy to handle those at the end of the show joining me here as always connor allen connor week three how are we feeling um week two was probably one of the worst weeks of my life just like you know betting wise but i've never felt more confident you know

heading into week three you know blank slate ready to go in fresh you know i'm pumped to break down week three and you know nail some winners this week. Turn the page. Also joining us in this space every week, the man behind the Mayo Media Network, the Pat Mayo Experience. It is the man himself. It's Pat Mayo. How are we doing? I'm streaming President's Cup on the phone in front of me to make sure that I need Cam Davis to come back, Ryan.

We spoke about this throughout the course of the week. Jumped on your Twitter spaces. I'm set up well with the internationals. I like where it's heading. I got it on in the background over here. So we're trying to stay focused. It's muted, so no one can hear it. But yeah, I mean, President's Cup, you know,

Pat and I are staying in the golf streets all year round. So we got to try to sweat those things. Cam Young looking pretty good so far. So we'll see how this can pan out. Tom Kim ripped through two pairs of pants this morning, which so he's having an interesting day. So yeah, good stuff over there. Always check out Jeff and Pat's golf stuff.

If you somehow are in this world watching this show and you don't watch Pat for golf, I'm talking to like 0% of the listeners here. So always good stuff there. Want to remind folks that we have two episodes of Move the Line each week, both available here to stream on YouTube, available in podcast form as well. In addition to remind folks that we have two episodes of Move the Line each week, both available here to stream on YouTube, available in podcast form as well. In addition to the Prop Drop, we

have a game preview show with Connor, John Daigle, and myself that goes live 7 p.m. Eastern on Thursday nights leading into the Thursday night football game. So subscribing will help you catch that one. You can check out last night's show, Nine bets in there for week three. So before we get started, I want to tell our listeners a little bit about our friends at Thrive Fantasy. And again, they are about 8% filled for their current week three big GPP there. And if you're not familiar with Thrive, it is a daily fantasy sports platform for esports and player props. Essentially, they have a tournament where you can choose 10 of the 20 available player props to build a lineup. Each prop has a assigned fantasy value for both the over and under based on how likely it is to hit. If you hit the most props, accumulate the most points, you can win a share of the prize pool.

They have $25 GBP, which again, probably will not fill. They continue to cut it down in size, but we want to help them fill it as much as we can. So use our promo code PROPDROP. When you sign up today, you will receive a 100% instant first deposit match up to $250.

Download Thrive in the app store or go over to thrivefantasy.com Sign up and prop up today. All right, week three. Week two sucked. Turning the page there. Prop-wise, I think there was some other stuff that we had that went well,

but props were a struggle. Again, week one, just that singular point of data. After week two, we kind of opened up the possibility of some trends, and I think the goal here is to get ahead of those trends as quickly as possible. Difficult with small sample size, with matchups and different things like that, And I think the goal here is to get ahead of those trends as quickly as possible. Difficult with small sample size, with matchups, different things like that. But we're trying to draw on a combination of the first two weeks, what we've seen and heard coming into the season with these teams. I think bookmakers are also likely to hold on to priors as well.

So we're going to try to find ways that we can leverage that. All lines here are going to be live lines that you can bet on right now. No one's here to give stale lines. Our goal is to do our best to make sure you can get the same line and price that we do connor get us started week three your first play yeah so my first play of the week i like tyler conklin under 28 and a half receiving yards this is minus 115 a dk so i think the big news here is cj uzoma practicing in full full and trending towards playing as his former team in the Bengals. And he's been pretty dead set on not missing this

game for, you know, for what that's worth with players, with player ticks on their own injuries. But I mean, Uzoma figures to rotate in a little bit more with Tyler Conklin, reduces opportunity after Conklin played 92 and a hundred percent of the snaps last two weeks, ran 84.4% of the routes more than Gary Wilson and Corey Davis over the past two weeks. Now, Conklin's still, despite that, only one and two on this number, despite seeing seven to nine targets in two games, because his average of target only 1.1 yards right now. You know, I expected the Jets league leading pass volume right now to eventually regress and probably come down a little bit. And if Uzoma plays essentially any kind of

role here, I like the under on his yardage. I know that it's low as is, but with lower ADOT targets and less volume, I like the under here. Pat, what are your thoughts on the Conklin stuff? It's funny because I had Conklin over three and a half receptions before the Uzoma news was going to come out. I had to wait for that news to break, and it does look like he's going to play. So no longer a great spot for Tyler Conklin, although if he ends up being the tight end who runs the majority of the snaps for the Jets, I'm not going to be super stunned.

So now it just becomes more of like a DFS play than actually a bet-on prop play because it's not going to lean heavy one way or another for me. But, I mean, it would be a stay away for me. It's actually there's actually a bunch of jet stuff I do like. So I'll kind of hop on to that of what Connor said about maybe it's not so pass happy. I mean, this game is for everyone saying that the Bengals are going to blow out the jets spreads only five.

I think it's gonna be a relatively close game. And after what we saw last week, getting the rookies more involved, both Garrett Wilson and Brees Hall, this one's juiced up a little bit but breeze hall over six and a half rushing attempts minus 145 this is the biggest winner of any prop per my said by 10 000 simulations right now i haven't projected at 12 gary's in this game and they haven't 6.5 that's a that's a huge number um wow that's way off yeah be interesting to see i mean i think that we've seen a lot of work from Carter there too. We have actually Byron in the chat wanting us to hit Michael Carter overs for

the third straight week. I have that one down. I'll even lump that one on. You can go all over six and a half carries with Michael Carter over two and a half catches. Interesting Connor. I know you're on the other side of the, of the bright. I mean, we're pivoting here. We're talking jet stuff, but I know you're on the other side of some breeze hall stuff, I mean, we're pivoting here. We're talking jet stuff, but I know you're on the other side of some Brees Hall stuff, right? Well, I, I took the under on his receptions, but that was just because Ty Johnson played a role

and they made a clear effort to get them involved in the receiving game in two minute drills last week. I think that the rushing attempts is probably the right move here because I mean, we projected for around 10. I'm not necessarily saying that Brees Hall is going to play, you know, less, he just won't be, I just don't think he's gonna be involved in like clear passing two minute drills as much, um, with Ty Johnson playing that role. So I think that they eventually they're going to have to go towards Brees Hall more on the ground and early downs right now, it looks like kind of split with him and Carter, but I took the under one and a half receptions at plus money would consider playing

at even money, but you know, I don't think that I would touch it at anything more, any juice on the under there, but I like the over on the temps. That's popping in our player prop tool as well. I think we have projected for like 10 carries this week. So yeah, I guess the only scare is if the game does get out of hand. But to Pat's point, the most efficient market in all of sports betting is telling us that it is not going to be a blowout. So I think that we can lean on that. I looked at the receptions for Hull as well on going under

because I saw the same thing that you did. The Jets game just itself, I feel like if you can get it right based on what we've seen so far, it actually makes for like a nice same game parlay. Carter over two and a half catches, Holl under one and a half catches, Holl over six and a half. Like all of a sudden,

you got like a five to one on your hands. We got Holl at 11.9. So yeah, bonus props for you here. Pat, you can give your official first play, but you know, people come in live. They're getting bonus stuff. Pat's ready to go.

Yeah, we are. I mean, my, my play was tall over six and a half. Oh, that was your first one. Okay,

good. It's not even bonus. Screw you and your bonus stuff. You just get the four. We each give. So, um, jet stuff is off the top to get us started.

So no problem with that. Uh, first one for me will be Drake London, uh, over 54 and a half receiving yards. This is still out there on bet MGM minus 115. We talked about rookies in the Jets getting their rookies involved through two weeks. Drake London looks every bit the part of a top 10 pick and a guy who is going to be a priority for their offense. They still refuse to do anything with Kyle Pitts and having

him avoid difficult cover corners. They don't line him up as a tight end, and that's great that he can do that, but it'd be great to have him maybe in line and maybe get him lined up or scheme him up on a linebacker. In the meantime, this guy is eating. Drake London is stepping in. Our route participation grew last week from 82 to 89. He earned 32% of the team targets to date on the season, 38% of the air yards.

Seattle defense, I still think, is one of the worst three in the league. They are below average talent across the board. Personally, I love to look at, especially early in the season when it's kind of noisy statistically, can be really dependent on who you played. Defensive success rate, I think, is a really good lean. Seattle is dead last. They have zero three and outs defensively this season. Every single one of the drives against their defense

has either resulted in a touchdown or at least a singular first down. I think this is kind of a game where it's going to be slow-paced and not a lot of exciting offense. I think the total is down to like 41.5, 42. But I think Drake London is going to be a priority and still gets a lot of work. So 54 the total is down like 41 and a half 42 but i think drake london is going to be a priority and still gets a lot of work so 54 and a half still out there um is a great play for me minus 115 i i went back and watched this game because i was very confused about what was going on i haven't projected right around that number so i think it's a

it's a sharp number so it really depends on your personal opinion of how you think that seattle does things unders againsters against Seattle, I think are going to prove to be rather fruitful just because they don't run plays ever. They slow the game down to such an extent that they run so few plays and take so long to run plays that all of a sudden the other team can't run any plays at the same time. And what the Rams did last week, the reason that you saw so much Drake London, I was like, what is going on with Kyle Pitts? So what we've seen through two weeks so far is opposing defenses,

both the Saints and the Rams have made it priority number one on the defensive side of the ball to essentially high-low cover Kyle Pitts. You are not going to beat us with Kyle Pitts, thus leaving Drake London this one-on-one coverage. If that continues on this week, he ends up with 120 yards.

Eventually, if, I mean, the Atlanta offense has looked really good. They've been hard to slow down. It's the defense. It's absolute garbage. So if this week, if I don't know if Seattle necessarily has the personnel to do that would be my worry. And I know that eventually it's going to be a squeaky wheel type thing that, you know, it's going to be London, London, London.

Everyone's just out on pits. Oh, I hate pits. That pits is just going to absolutely explode. I could see this being that week. I thought about that one too. Cause I do think that that's a pretty good, you know, yin and yang. You know, you've talked about that a lot here early in the season is what just the bounce back of what everyone saw last week is what we think is going to happen again. And everyone's down on pits and we're up on London and this is a nice spot for that to bounce back. But yeah, we, I think defensively we're seeing a lot of the same stuff we saw from Seattle last year is they

don't have the talent to match up and they play really conservatively and allow you to dink and dunk and take anything underneath. We saw it in a big way in the Denver game in week one. They allowed like a 10% higher success rate allowed in the season last year defensively than anyone else in the league. Like the Jets, Ist like 44 and i think seattle was like 52 they will give it to you um if you were just want to be patient and think and dunk so i actually considered the pits number and i also like drake london over four and a half receptions but it came out with significant juice on and we saw there too with producer sal had the prop tool up um if you go on our site prop finder in the betting section,

you can basically type in any player. I think you can use it for any sport in type in and get the number up there, allow you to shop books in one spot without having to go book to book and tab to tab. So I like the London reception number, but I'm not willing to pay minus one 45 for a reception prop. So I get it.

I do think Kyle Pitts is a viable look to you, but I think London, which is this air yards and target shares is pretty massive. So with Pitts is getting steamed right now. I don't know if you guys saw, but multiple people have hit Pitts overs. It opened at 44 or 40,

like around there. It's up over 50 now on the receiving yards, which is, I mean, it's, it's getting to be a lot. He's going to break out one game. I just don't know when it's going to be.

And you mentioned that Seattle plays, you know, a lot of zone, you know, I I've heard that Drake London has been doing pretty well in zone, you know, comparatively. So I think that that's probably a good look, but the number is already 55. You know, I think that that's a little bit tough for me to bet,

but I would definitely lean over. All right, Connor, back to you. Bet number two. All right. Bet number two. I mean, this one broke my heart a little bit. Not going to lie. This is tough money. Yeah. This this this was seriously coming off my priors here i took chase admins under 35 and a half rushing yards uh bill's defense ranked second explosive run rate allowed

fifth and run defense epa through two weeks chase admins was out carried 11 to 5 last week by raheem mostert essentially all negatives and beyond that I expect the Bills to kind of push the pace here force the Dolphins continue to pass who already ranked third in pass rate over expectation so I mean it essentially took a long run late in the game last week for Edmunds to even get to 33 yards now he's a much tougher matchup so I think you're able to find that 35 I'd play this down to 30 I think you know because you're looking at a guy who's probably going to be on the wrong side of that you know split as of now and I think, you know, cause you're looking at a guy who's probably going to be on the wrong side of that, you know, split as of now. And I think that they probably get more involved in the passing game or continue to have him involved there. But it seems like most are right now is

outplayed him in the early downs. And he, he didn't even start last week. I mean, Edmonds, like, like most are started. So, um, it's sad. I was really excited about most cert, but, uh, or about, uh, Edmonds, but I think we are where we are given the matchup, the workload. Uh, I like the under here, Fred. It was a surprising late carry too. Like they were in no huddle and they were trying to go fast and they had had a lot of success and I think it caught them Baltimore off guard. And yeah, that was like more than half of his yardage in the game. Uh, man, when he thoughts here to this running back split. Yeah, it was very interesting to see just the amount that Miami kept running with Mostert on early downs coming into the second half when they were down 21 points and it was very

effective and it kind of set up what they did later on in the game because every time Mostert touched the ball he was running downhill and that's nothing new for Colonel Mostert but he's just always hurt so you always forget that they're like oh yeah this guy's really good he's basically just one cut hit the outside edge and boom just run as hard So you always forget that. You're like, oh, yeah, this guy's really good. He's basically just one cut, hit the outside edge, and boom. Just run as hard as you can downhill. And it was very effective. But I don't know if that was a Baltimore-centric game plan. Maybe they felt they had the advantage with him.

We know that Chase Edmonds is the better receiving back. That in a game where you know that you're big underdogs, and listen, last week, for whatever reason, they continued to run with Mostart and have him in the game game will that go back to what we saw more in week one i just feel like this miami offense is going to look a little bit different every single week so i like this one with even if edmunds ends up with like 70 of the snap share for the dolphins this week you can't run on the bills bills front four is awesome yeah yeah it is unpredictable it is interesting to see such a massive split because we looked at rush air in the first week most there was at 22 percent uh with admins at 52 percent and then we

have a massive split 61 to 28 like did most of you just have like such a kick-ass week in practice like it must be something in the scheme or in the matchup that they thought not scheme a matchup but yeah it's just really it's it's curious so yeah i mean i think connor is is on the right side of this because again betting on what we saw there i think makes a lot of sense i think it just play volume in general i think is going to be a problem here i guess rushing attempts because it's going to be a lot of play volume in this game but i think they're going to have to be forced to throw and uh yeah i'm proud of you for uh being an adult here and moving off of a very strongly anchored take that you had all off season we did a draft together and i think you took chase edmonds in the fourth at one point

so it was okay it was a 14-man league i took him at the four or five turn and i was i mean it was an all-you-can-drink thing you know i mean they mean, at that point, you know, we were already way too deep. So, you know, definitely a mistake. Mistakes were made and I'm one in one in that league for a reason. But also Chase Evans right now, I think he's dead last in the league in rushing yards over expectation just out of every single running back. So yeah, I think it's just time to time to let go. Seems not great.

All right, Pat, number two. All right. I have, and maybe i'll save this for two and three uh pick the number one or two two all right juwan johnson over 22 and a half receiving yards in this game he continues to be the primary pass catcher at tight end in the saints offense old trout face doesn't do anything but besides block and stand at the end zone but it's actually juwan johnson who's out running routes camara's back but he's clearly not 100 i don't know how effective this rush game is going

to be we've even seen carolina be pretty stout against the run to be perfectly honest you can pass all over them and i think that's what we're going to see from the saints this week everyone's talking about alave and how he had four million air yards and garbage time against the bucks like that's great uh this isn't the bucks defense for one thing you can actually move the ball on the Carolina defense that I mean what is this two catches that's fine I like he went four for 40 last week probably should have had a better game than that overall James missed him wide open twice in that game that you know this could be one catch for Johnson or he could just pile up three greasy ones and get over this number I haven't projected for over 30 points or 30 yards in this game,

getting 22 and a half. It's minus one 10. I like it a lot. When you actually get a tight end with a route participation, Mark over 70%, that's like elite tight end usage. And that's where we're at with Johnson two weeks in a row, 79%,

71%. I mean, Troutman is barely out there has not seen a target all season. So like, yeah, I'm with you. I think it out there has not seen a target all season. So like, yeah, I'm with you. I think it's a, it's a pretty good look. What do you think, Connor? I love it. That was actually on my list. I didn't see it until now. That's why I was looking for it in our prop finder. It looks like 22 and a half across the board. I think, you know, correlated with that, you're probably going to see a reception line around two and a

half. I think both overs are great looks considering his route participation, as you mentioned, and the stats there. Also, Luis, newly appointed VP of Strategy at 444, is now wanting to give away free Move the Line t-shirts. So anyone here in the chat, chime in. We will get you a free Move the Line t-shirt. Appreciate you guys hanging out here. For sure. We'll get Pat a hoodie. Yeah, Pat gets a hoodie. The hoodies are really nice the t-shirts nah t-shirts are really nice if you wash your own car um and you like

want to detail your rims or something like that um imagine washing your own car you need to win more prop bets pal seriously i'm talking to the subs pat you know yeah well they're subbing so that they can win the money and don't have to wash their own car this is a great point yeah it's a very comfortable t-shirt we'll leave it at that very comfortable t-shirt um but the uh the design sorry louise i'm not sure if it was louise's design but uh you know they're comfortable t-shirts so all right um number two for me is damian pierce over over 58 and a half rushing yards. This is on FanDuel.

I actually got this for our subs at 55 and a half. Connor and I jumped on this when it first jumped out. Really bizarre running back usage, I think, in week one, especially considering how they handled and talked about Damian Pierce late in the preseason. But they gave him the keys in week two. Rex Burkhead was used solely on passing downs. Pierce handled 100% of the running back carries. He's third in the

league in broken tackle rate, which we know is one of those sustainable stats for really indicative of skillset, I think, too, for running backs. And I think the quote that we saw, too, from Lovey this week really solidified his role. I don't know if you guys saw this on Twitter. He was talking about how as a football team, we need to finish better. I've said that an awful lot to the team, but I haven't said it to Damian. He finishes plays. He's what we want to be. So all those things are encouraging coming off of the back of 100% rushing carry. So the Bears have offered very little resistance against opposing ground games this season.

They are 27th in Football Outsiders DVOA. They are 27th in football outsiders DVOA. They are 26th in explosive run rate allowed. This is a pretty coin toss game here. Two and a half, three points to spread. We have him projected for about 18 carries. I think even in the 14 to 16 range on the low end is a, probably a pretty good look here.

We haven't projected for 76 yards. So Pat would love to get your thoughts here on a play that Connor and I are both on I love it I actually had this one down until I checked the spreadsheet saw you had it and I was like wow I don't want to double down on this one but we can talk about all these things even if he doesn't handle 100 of the rushing attempts that's okay especially in this game because it's two teams that want to run the ball a lot don't necessarily stop the run all that well. And weirdly enough, in game neutral situations, through two games at least,

not that Chicago has played a ton of neutral situations, but when they have, they run a lot of plays really quickly. And then you take a look at Houston, they're fourth in the league in terms of game neutral script and how fast they play. So you have two teams that are really fast. Yes, it bleeds the clock because they both do a lot of running. But normally in a game like that, we think about

Seattle. It's like, well, they're just going to basically take down the play amounts from everyone else because not only is Seattle a very slow team, they run a ton and don't run a ton of plays. That's not the case with the Texans or the Bears. They run a ton of plays. They just happen to run a lot. So I just think through attrition alone that you're most likely going to get there the only problem with this one and this is why it's sports betting it's not sports locks as we go into it is that you know if burkhead is just all of a sudden playing 60 of the snaps this week it's like oh yeah the texans are stupid this is what they do yeah that's actually why you know i hate to buy into like narrative or coach speak that's kind of why I was encouraged with that quote from Lovey

is that you feel like they gave him the keys last week. Like you said, 100% is probably not in the cards again, but even if he's dominating and we're in like the 75% of the running back carries here, that's why I think even with our projection upwards into like the 18 carries mark, I think he can still get to where we're looking for him to get to in the 14, 15 range.

So I feel pretty good about that one. It looks like it's moved a little bit. There's some 60 and a half, 59 and a half starting to get a little pricey, but I don't mind it under 60. So Cotton, are there any thoughts now that it's moved? I know we got it at 55 and a half. Hit the alts. I think the alts are the way to go yeah i really think that this could be a ladder game um you know like you know i think that you should be hitting like 70 plus 80 plus 100 yards i know it's plus 470 i mean he got he saw all the running back touches like all the running back carries last week amazing matchup like you had outlined there so yeah i think that you should be hitting some alts here 90 plus yards plus 320 I mean, I just think that this line is too low

and just like they're factoring in week one too much where it seemed like, you know, just, I don't know. It seemed like they really want to go towards Damian here. Yeah, broken tackle rate is nice too and encouraging. Connor, number three at the turn. Yeah, so I will give this out on the show here. I just got a message, um, saying that, uh, you know, potentially they're Justin Herbert is on the outside looking in,

uh, for this game, uh, for against the, uh, Jaguars. So, and the line just moved all the way from seven to six. Um, so I don't think that this is a complete false rumor there for, so, uh, for those in the show, I know this is a prop show but uh any unders on pass catchers or just hit the jags outright plus seven all good looks um yep so all right let's see here third bet marvin jones i actually just speaking of i took the under here but i think this is still fine obviously even if that happens i'm marvin jones under 42 and a half receiving yards. I took this at DK or MGM. He's 0-2 to this number this season.

Now faces the toughest match of the day against the Chargers. He'll likely square up against Asante Samuel Jr. for most of the snaps. I lined up at left wide receiver last week at 40 of 54 snaps. Samuel plays the majority of his snaps out wide at right cornerback. So I think that that should be a pretty tough matchup for him. Samuel currently PFF's 23rd ranked corner in the league. Not to mention, Marvin Jones is a little bit dusty here. So I think that the under here is probably where I look.

Over 40, I'm just shocked to see it there. I know Lawrence has played awesome, and I'm buying into the Jags. I just think that this number is a little bit too high. Yeah, Pat, what are your thoughts on that? my initial thoughts on it were leading exactly with connor and then i checked out what my projections tell me and i have mervin jones is a strong over to this number weirdly enough i haven't 50 total yards in this four and a half catches seven targets just seems like and maybe this will shift it back because i had this is a very high pass volume game for the jags and i felt like evan inggram was a bit overinflated based off last week.

You mentioned Juwan Johnson running more than 70% of the routes on dropbacks. I mean, Evan Ingram's inside the top 10, over 70% with that. Tower Conklin was, and we'll see if that continues with Uzama back. But if Uzama sits, that would be the one thing I'd be worried about with locking in some of these Conklin numbers right now, is that Uzama can say he wants to play all he can and like was it a limited practice today Connor was it a full practice it was a full he was he came back in full and said that he was quote trending towards playing and then early in the week was like I'm gonna play like I'm against

my former team that's basically that's my analysis of he's play. So is what we want to play here. Yeah. Connor's banking on more than one play from. Yeah. He wants to be dressed, run out the tunnel, you know, be out there to warm up and then be able to not be in street clothes when he shakes their hands at the end of the game. So maybe he could do that,

but hopefully on more than, on more than one play. Yeah. I don't, I don't love that one. That's just more of a stay away from me. I'm going to go to part two of my crappy tight ends and their overs, along with Juwan Johnson.

And this is just from watching their games, how you expect this game to go. I am worried about this Kansas City-Indianapolis game. It just feels like Indy is the right side on the point spread, and Kansas City might not tune them as much as Johnny Public thinks that they're going to. Either way, Kyle Granson is 15 and a half receiving yards at DraftKings Sportsbook right now.

He is far more involved. He's playing more snaps, marginally, than Mo Alley-Cox. But he's running routes on dropbacks. Like, that's all I really care about. And if you can project out Matt Ryan at, like, 35 pass attempts in this game, Pittman, yes, he's still banged up. Is Alec Pierce going to be back? Maybe he doesn't do anything anyway.

Paris Campbell might as well be running on a treadmill for all the cardio he's getting. Like he's a guy that they throw to because it's an easy pass for Matt Ryan who can't pass anymore. Yeah, Paris Campbell, a Jalen Guyton all-star. Chris Hogan back in the day, too, used to do a lot of that with New England. But yeah, Granson is, you know, run more routes in both games than Mo Alley Cox, who is someone that I liked coming into the season.

I thought it was going to have a nice role finally out of the, you know, the Doyle shadows and it's been, it's been Granson. So I know some people really liked him coming out and he's been, he's been involved. So yeah, 15 and a half is not a very high threshold to, to overcome there. So yeah, they could dink and dunk in there they have some injuries actually kansas city does uh normally in the secondary with a linebacker too so yeah granson is actually a really nice look i like these low threshold overs doesn't take much to get there no i had a lot of success i forget what

year it was when jimmy graham was on the bears maybe it was last year my memory's bad now but like his overrunners every week were like six and a half yards. Like, well, he's averaging like two for 25 every single week. We should just bet overs on this and make it our only bet. I think I had an episode of this show last year where I had all four of my plays were tight end overs over like 28 and a half yards or something like that. It was just all like really small little stuff. So yeah, no problem.

Let me ask you about this one because I'm seeing the numbers right now. It's looking more and more like Hunter Renfro is not going to play on Sunday with this concussion. He still has time to pass protocol, but it's not looking great. So right now, if you want to bet Mac Collins, who was super involved last week, 35 and a half is over under, uh, it just got readjusted. They just boosted it up because it was 28 and a half at minus 190 it now just resetted itself at 35 and a half this is gonna be a really popular one just based off what we saw last week i think i would actually pivot and go foster moreau over 14 and a half because mac hollins is kind of a receiver but he's actually just a tight end

and i think that moreau is going to end up running more routes. That's just my take on it. Interesting. Connor and I were talking before the show about Darren Waller looks. I know Waller wasn't, I haven't heard anything injury wise, but he wasn't really involved late in that game. So I'm not sure if there's anything to be worried about. But yeah, we saw a spike in routes run for Foster Moreau last week,

45% after 22% and got targeted on 17 17 of his routes run uh connor any thoughts on basically the raiders you know outside of of renfro yeah it was interesting because holland's was playing a ton in like two wide receiver sets and like it was like it wasn't renfro for a while it was just like holland's and adams and they were just like i mean blocking a lot of times still but it was just strange because renfro you know was playing a lot more last year and now uh seemingly he's playing a little bit less and now with him out though it's I I don't really know who kind of takes that role or soaks up more targets because Renfro is still being targeted a good amount earning targets so I mean you're looking at whatever seven to ten targets a week essentially now being uh dispersed throughout uh the Raiders

probably for this week so I I would I would lean more overs are good. Darren Waller overs. I would still lean over a Matt Collins at 35. I think he sees probably four to five targets here again, but I mean, it could also be a Devante Adams game where he sees whatever, like 12, 15 targets and all the other ones go under.

So I don't know. I think I, I I'll probably have to look at it a little bit more in depth. Squeaky wheel gets the grease there with Adams for sure. After, right. After right, you know, dominating in week one and then just getting basically skunked against just maybe the worst secondary of the league.

It was a very, very peculiar thing. All right. Number three for me is I'm on Ross St. Brown over 70 and a half receiving yards. This is still available and minus one 10 on points. Bets. Very encouraging.

We know we have like the grits and all the things about, you know, Dan Campbell and wanting to be an old school, establish a guy they're throwing it pretty, pretty high rate in situation, neutral times. Like again, they don't have a lot of those either because they've kind of either been

up earlier, you know, trailing behind. But interesting to see, again, they got up pretty big early against the Commanders and came out on the first down and through, up 17, up 24. Bodes really well for St. Brown, who is now on eight straight weeks of double-digit targets. He's topped his yardage mark in seven of those eight games. The matchup against the Vikings, again, this is probably one of the highest scoring games of the week. In the Dome, fast track, really bad secondary for both squads.

Minnesota's allowed the fifth most passing yards per game through the first two weeks. And again, Sun God, fourth in target share so far this season. So I just think this is a really too low number. I don't think the books have adjusted to kind of what's carried over from last year. I know there were concerns about how he ate last year, mostly with everyone else on a lineup without Hawk, without Swift,

but it's continued. And I think what he's seen, he's continuing to earn targets. And I think he's going to eat in this game in a bad matchup. What are your thoughts, Pat? I want to play Swift overs in this game on everything. I think it's Swift who beats up on the Vikings. I mean, not to say that Amon Ra is not, but I think that Swift is the way i would try to take this but cowards who run sports

books will not release any swift props it's outrageous well i think because he's questionable right or he's like limited he was far more questionable last week and he still dominated he did dominate yeah well didn't dominate in in very few touches but yeah i think the word today in his practice report was he was hobbled a hobbled swift so yeah you'll probably get him by the time sunday rolls around so it's just like i want four net over on everything oh he's questionable he's not gonna he's gonna play and he's gonna have like 30 touches yeah i want that too and connor got a piece of that too early uh connor any thoughts on the sun god no i think you have a good read on it i mean it's it's over nothing for me i mean it's already whatever 70 yards so it's kind of like high but just the usage is like insane so it's i know

that's your jam the good wide receiver overs uh and so you know yeah exactly second to tackle props but yeah that's the other place um i'm not necessarily a thought leader in the elite wide receiver over space um comparative to you know where i'm at from a tackle prop standpoint. But we'll get there. We'll figure it out. Connor, bring us home number four. Yeah, my last prop here is I couldn't do all-unders this week. So last prop, two over 35.5 pass attempts. I expect this game to be fireworks.

I think it could look similar to their last week against the Ravens. So these two teams with the Bills and the Dolphins ranked first and third in pass rate over expectation. The Bills last week, doesn't matter, Gabe Davis goes out, they pass 74% of the time in neutral game script for however long that lasted. But the Bills offense just had no problem moving the ball against the Dolphins last year with the same defensive coordinator scored 35 and 26 points against them. Now the Bills defense is going to be missing Mike Ahai, Jordan Poyer, Dane Jackson, and probably Jordan Phillips. He said, I mean, looks iffy.

So missing four of their top defensive starters. And we know that the Dolphins want to pass the ball as is. So I think that we're looking at the Dolphins coming out and throwing the ball in neutral game scripts. And then in negative game scripts, I mean, they're going to be throwing the ball the entire game. So I think the two, I mean, two had 50 pass attempts last game. He hit 33 in week one despite playing in like a slow, low scoring game against the Patriots.

So now you're getting like a fast uptempo game with a lot of scoring and passing. I think the over here is the move. So we have him for over 36 pass attempts now. I think that 35 and a half is a good look there. And you're still able to find that at most shops, I believe. Yeah, look, Sal's got it up here for us looks like the best place to go is ngm um everyone's got 35 and a half mgm has minus 110 which is a good look and uh yeah i'm on this one with you too i just think we see a good amount of play volume here uh pat what do you have here on

on to uh i i thought you're gonna say over over 35.5 interceptions because I would have taken the over on that too. Yeah. I mean, I think that there's some, we had some issues actually with our projections. So I was curious to see what you had because I think, you know, long-term you want to regress back to, you know, the mean off of obviously a top one percentile outcome for Tua, what we saw last week. And then you also have this situation where you know Buffalo historically in the last couple years defensively has been really strong they've not given up a lot of big plays they've really limited offenses in general but the one thing that's not really accounted for is what Connor mentioned too and that is just the clustered injuries especially in the back half too so not curious I've heard people talk about this all week and it's great

for me because i've hammered bills minus five and a half at one point got it at six again and i have bills alt totals in this game like 16 and a half and maybe i'm just way off on this but i don't think not having a secondary matters against the dolphins is counterintuitive as that sounds the big difference between baltimore last week and the Bills this week is the Bills are going to rush four and be in Tua's face the entire game. Tua was not under any sort of duress against the Ravens. The moment you put any pressure on Tua, he folds and he just starts throwing picks, enforcing the ball.

So I think you could have like me out there in the secondary. It's like he's not going to have time to throw the ball deep. And so it's not really going to matter in these one-on-one coverages. Perfect. So we have, that's why we went attempts and not yards too because you know i also poked holes you know i'm less i'm more on your side with this too big bills guy checking in team total over bills minus everything um but i think from an attempt standpoint i think too we can get there i'm a little bit more you know reluctant to think that he has like a newfound

efficiency i do think mike mcdaniel can be a guy that can scheme yak in a big way, like what we've seen San Francisco do over the years. But to your point, pocket collapses, very different beast there. But I know Connor is a little bit more pro efficiency as far as do it goes. I'm certainly not taking the Dolphins here at like plus six, but I do think that if Mike McDaniel is smart, which through two games, I believe that he is, he'll find ways to, you know, get the ball into Tyreek and Waddle's hands as quickly as

possible. So the defense will not be able to just pin their ears back and, you know, pass rush every single play. That being said, as you mentioned, had mentioned prior, they're good at limiting big plays regardless, you know, they're you're able to keep things in front of them. And so, yeah, it's, it's going to be an adjustment here. Like if they just try and, you know, bomb it deep every single play, like they were against Baltimore, I don't think that's going to work, but I do think that there's a path for them to still be relatively efficient through the air, uh, you know, given some of the secondary injuries here. So, but to Pat's point, you know, he won't have a ton of time, so there has to be some changes made. Uh, so it'll be kind of a wait and see thing. Still think we get there on the

attempts, but it has made me second guess any like overs on the yards, the passing yards and everything there. Yeah. I still think that they can, he can put up some points. We'll talk about that in a second, but then also still get absolutely, you know, curb stomped by the bills here, which I think is probably going to happen. So we've got two more props, one from Pat, one for myself. If you are hanging out with us in the chat, drop us a question, let us know what your thoughts are something that you're eyeing

you want to poke holes in anything that we've given out we will get to that at the whatever time we have left here at the very end of the show pat your last prop for us this week this is so gross ian thomas under 14 and a half receiving yards against the Saints. It's so gross. They're going to need him to block. And Giovanni Ricci was actually playing a weird amount of snaps for the for the Panthers against the Giants when Thomas started to falter in that regard.

Like they want Thomas to be out there in the receiving game and he gets one shot a game in week one. He had like the 50-yard catch. It happens. Last week, he had his one catch, came below this number. He runs shorter A-dot routes. He's hoping to make a guy miss, and he's super athletic and super fast. So if he gets by the one guy, but you could basically put his over-under at 7.5.

It doesn't really matter. It's either he gets it or he's absolutely nowhere near it. So I just don't like the way that this game shakes out for the Panthers. It doesn't really matter. It's either he gets it or he's absolutely nowhere near it. So I just don't like the way that this game shakes out for the Panthers. I know people like the Panthers are god-awful. I don't know what people are watching. I have this big Atlanta bias where I think that Atlanta is secretly good. I mean, not good as in someone to watch out for, but versus Carolina, give me a neutral field.

Give me Atlanta in that game. I think their their offense is better I think their defense is comparable at least they have corners and a pass rush they can't stop first downs but because you can run all over them but with the Saints like what we saw from the Saints defense last week is what we expected to see from the Saints defense week one the difference week one was you had Mariota running like a triple option with Cordero Patterson out of the backfield. Like it was. And the thing is, that's not what they intended to do. They intended to run the ball with Damian Williams and then he got hurt. So they had to switch on the fly of what they were going to do. And they had no answer for this quickness of Patterson. So yeah, maybe they try to pass a little bit more, but I just really think

they're going to need their tight ends to block because their offensive line is garbage. I took the over on the Panthers team total last week and it was painful. I went back and rewatched that game Monday morning and yeah, I'm moving off of some, maybe my, what you have with the Falcons is similar to what I have with the Panthers. Like I didn't think they were good and they were a playoff team, but I thought young defense, Baker's an upgrade over Sam Darnold. I like some of the weapons there, the offensive line they've addressed. Baker is a problem, I think. He gets the ball batted down a lot.

I feel like it is, I don't know, they're underutilizing DJ Moore. It's a mess. And just even to go along with that comparison, here's why i don't understand why people are still on the panthers like i was looking at this for the fewest wins markets and who's going to get the number one overall pick i still think it's i still hope it's the bears uh when all is said and done this is a real hinge game this week for me for the worst record for the texans can beat the bears we're in good shape again that's fine because seattle got its

win the jets got its wins everything The Jets got its win. So everything's sort of at a neutral playing field right now. And then it would give Houston the win and a tie, which would put them ahead of them. But Atlanta's the favorite to have the number one pick right now. And they're plus 250 at DraftKings Sportsbook, whereas the Panthers are 10 to 1. Now, the Panthers couldn't win and couldn't cover

against the Giants and the Browns. Not necessarily two teams we expect to light it up. The Falcons at this point have blown a win and covered. And then they went into LA against the Rams and cover against the Saints and the Rams. Two teams people projected to be in the playoffs. So Atlanta has two what I would call good losses, covered both games, kept it relatively close. I mean, last week it seemed like a blowout, but by the end of it,

Atlanta had a real chance to win that game. They had just been a little bit more efficient. Then you see Carolina have lost to, yes, one of the teams is 2-0. The other one is 2-1.

No one believes in those teams because they're not good. Yeah, it's, we're going to see. I think I have a bet on Falcons under two wins in the division, and I don't feel good about it because they're going to get to play the Panthers, and the Panthers are a problem.

So, yeah, I'm with you. It's interesting. I like your card this week. You've got some definitely off the board guys that wouldn't be in Thrive, on Thrive's board. They like to go real top heavy with guys that we know. We're talking about some uh we get some stinky tight ends in this uh the slate which is good hey we want to find edges wherever we can find them right

we don't get any bonus points for betting on you know um josh allen overs but here we are to finish the show we got a little bit of a special this is a fan duel special um if you go click on the game um you go to game specials and they have these little tiers, plus 500 to plus 1,900. And there is a bet in there, plus 650, for both Josh Allen and Tua to have one plus passing yards in each half. Touchdowns, sorry. Plus 650. Now, their prop number alone for touchdowns, sorry, plus 650. Now, their prop number alone for touchdowns, they both have a

prop number available even on DraftKings at over under one and a half. If you were to parlay that by itself, it comes out to like plus 172. So now basically we're getting rewarded for the need to actually break it up and to have at least one per half. So I think like Pat does, Tua probably struggles a little bit, but there's enough passing volume here to make up for it. Josh Allen has absolutely torched the Dolphins historically. And if you look at it, what they do is really predictable. A lot of teams don't have such a predictable defense. The Dolphins are going to blitz their face off.

They led the league in blitz rate last year, 38%. They are right there this year so far, 39%. They play a lot of man coverage. When they don't play man coverage, they essentially just rush three and drop back in the zone. So it's pretty clear for Allen what he has to basically see pre-snap and what's happening. And he has absolutely torched them. Big on over bills, 30 and a half, any alt totals, like there's going to be points here. So I have no problem with the Allen side. My concern

is probably the two aside. So I think there's going to be a lot of points. So I think plus 650 is wrong. We don't usually get these specials that I think are actually probably advantageous lines. We typically see them where they juice it up and they pretend that it's better for you. But the prop itself, if you were the same game parlay over one and a half touchdown passes for these guys is plus 170. So I like where we're at, Connor. I know we looked at that. I actually tossed the prop to you and asked you what you thought the number was and a little bit of a different look. Yeah, I like, I like it. I guess the only question is, does Tua get there?

I'm of the belief he does. So I think that it's fine. If you're not of the belief he does, then I mean, I still think it's okay at plus 650, you know? So I think that it's still a solid look no matter what. Again, you know, probably not a full unit look, but you know, maybe like quarter unit, you know, half unit, if you want a little sprinkle on something fun for that game and really expect it to blow up yeah penner you're down on two but uh any thoughts on that that's plus 650 i'm just anti to a man i can't i and

it's funny because i'm like usually the pro to a person it's just i can't do it in this match watch me just lose all my money this week but it just feels like you want like real value. You just bet over one and a half an interception at minus one bet. Probably true. Yeah. Even with the injuries. So, all right. Questions.

We're going to run through real quick before, give a look to thrive. Connor, I don't know if you've taken a look at what their slate is. Give a look at a couple of things again, prop drop over a thrive fantasy. That promo code will get you a hundred percent instant first deposit match up to 250 add 250 of your account using the promo code prop drop you'll have 500 in there and you can max that bad boy help them fill that and you just probably by

entering it um you had an ev entry because it's 5500 they're not going to fill it uh so you're probably looking at some money but uh connor what are some early looks here in this week's thrive GP? Just to speak to how soft it is. I think I got four out of 10 entries, right. And still cash last week. Like it was like pathetically low. And because of the overlay, I still ended up being making money. So, uh, even if you suck like me, sometimes it's all right. Um, there are some good looks though this week. So they give you 20 props to choose from. They got some gifts here. Corlin Sutton, 48 and a half receiving yards. Like the over there.

You know, I don't expect Jerry Judy to play. So I think that we're going to probably project it for around 70. Could be higher. We were on that last week. I like the over. This week again, Tom Brady, over under two and a half passing touchdowns and interceptions. Unders giving you plus money there. I think that that is a good look.

I mean, that game, total 41 between Rodgers and Brady is shocking. Well, I guess not that shocking given the current state of things, but if you had told me heading into the year that it would be 41, I'm not sure that I would have believed you. So, I mean, without Mike Evans, no Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, 50-50 to play. Russell Gage banged up. Who are they going to be trotting out? Scotty Miller, Cole Beasley they just signed.

So, yeah, those are probably two of my favorite looks. Other than that, mostly everything else is priced right, but I think those two are solid looks here at Thrive. Yeah, I think Pat Thorman mentioned that they had to go to a local kid rock concert to find Cole Beasley and pop him in this line. Cole Beasley and pop him in this line. Cole Beasley in Florida makes so much sense. So, yeah.

I'm going to go with Pat here. I think toss this one out. They have DeAndre Swift combined rushing and receiving yards 67.5. And it is even juice. So you basically feel comfortable taking the over. That's probably one of my favorites that jumps off the board here too other than obviously the you know corlin one as you mentioned and the brady one i think is a pretty egregious line too so oh here's here's another one russell wilson

26 and a half completions you can just take the under there that's i mean that oh watch yourself with that one oh oh big you're a big russ guy checking? Oh, yeah. Russ is going to be fine. You just wait. Wait for Russ. I'm a Broncos backer. That number just seemed really high. I mean, what's the market at right now? I'm curious.

I mean, I took the Broncos this week in a teaser to get them to 7.5, but I'm a little worried this week. Let's see here what the market has. What is the market for passing attempts? I actually don't even know. Completions right now is 20.5. This is six completions higher than the market. Could always

get a nice hedge off that. Feels like Thrive knows something. Listen, you can talk about you can get a nice hedge out of that. How many people do you think are going to Thrive, play a prop, and then go hedge out on its horse? People don't actually do that. You know that, right? Oh, man. Normal people do not do that yeah normal people do not do that no no so again uh prop drop is the promo code with thrive check that out get in the overlay uh just just show up and play you want

some money by play just get money just just yeah just just you'll get that money back i promise uh all right some questions. Jayvon, hanging out with us last night and coming back today. We appreciate you. Any thoughts on Olave over 38.5 receiving yards? You know, Pat mentioned earlier, Olave with the, you know, shout out to Daigle, the prayer yards. You know, he basically was just, you know, balls bouncing out of bounds and everyone, you know, runs numbers and pulls stuff up on sunday night monday morning and they're like oh a lot of

it he's getting all this action and this is like the old robbie anderson where it's like oh look at robbie is getting all this air yards and it's like half of it was uncatchable um most of it was in garbage time so like be careful with some of the the air yards stuff um take it with a grain of salt but uh pat i don't know what your thoughts are on Olave this week. The number is fine. And over is probably the play here. Because just even when you compare his routes to Jarvis Landry, for example, he's just out there all the time.

It's sort of the main reason that I like Juwan Johnson. So if I like Juwan Johnson at 22 and a half, I kind of like Olave as well. The issue is if this game just remains close, whereas Johnson can get to that number on a catch. I mean, not to say that Olave can't, but that's probably two catches for Juwan Johnson. You're probably home free with the 22 and a half with Olave. It's either really short or really long. And if they don't feel the need to take deep shots, if they're not losing, I then start to worry because it's not like Jameis is. Listen, he's not Mac Jones in in terms of accuracy put it that way yeah we have actually a pretty nice i'd say

bullish uh number here we're about 55 yards on a lave but again it's like three and a half catches that is i assume baking in uh pretty massive uh air yards look last week so uh connor any thoughts on 30 and a half there? Yeah, lean over. I think the number should probably be like low 40s, but it's just, you're going to be, I would rather play an alt over like a 50 plus at like plus money than probably 38 at like, you know, minus 110.

I like that actually. I think that's a very savvy move on some of these receivers that you can go with. Like I have Olave projected for under, I haven't projected for 34 yards, but if he ended up with 140 off two catches i mean that's in his range of outcome so you might as well try to at least get a multiplier on that yeah so we have the panthers so far fifth lowest explosive pass rate allowed in the season they've played jacoby brissett and daniel jones so like you know i can't hearken on that enough

that's a great point noone is just like look at who they play it's two it's a two-week sample on all this stuff so when you're comparing everything like some of it doesn't make a lot of sense unless you put it into context i think that's pretty good context to put it in yeah jacoby i guess he's maybe outperformed our expectations a little bit, but they're not pushing the ball down the field from an explosive play. These 12-yard outs to Amari Cooper were a little slants. Hopefully he breaks one, but that's not something that we can bank on here. I couldn't find team totals for total sacks this week. Me either. I've been looking.

Yeah. If the Titans are at one and a half sacks, team total sacks, week me either i've been looking yeah if the titans are like one and a half sacks team total sacks or even two over i'm looking in the same game raiders over i don't know about that because even though they have like the raiders have a big name defense right um i just they did not look i mean maybe they just got so tired against Kyle or chasing him around. They couldn't do anything, but the Titans so far are like sixth and adjusted sack rate. Uh, and the Raiders can't block. They cannot.

That's it's a fair look. Max Crosby was a problem last week, but Kyler just did Kyler stuff. Like Crosby was in there all the time. Chandler Jones in a good spot too, but like Crosby was a beast. So like specifically I'm looking for Crosby stuff, but I think team total sacks on the Raiders is a is a look here too so yeah i was thinking about that for the

buccaneers too because the bucks have like the best adjustment the bills and bucks have the best adjusted sack rate through two weeks and like green bay can't block no yeah no bacteria again and yes definitely some injuries issues i'm gonna ask given defensive props here and probably are moving this show forward i absolutely absolutely love it. Very progressive. Love it. Kevin checking in again. Those stuck in pick-em states. Pierce is 56.5 on prize picks and 60 on underdog. I think we both or all three of us are leaning on over regardless of your site.

So interesting to see the discrepancy. We have a tool actually in our odds comparison tool. You can click the box and it will not only show the domestic books, it'll actually show prize picks as well if you want to see the discrepancy. We have a tool actually in our odds comparison tool. You can click the box and it will not only show the domestic books, it'll actually show prize picks as well. If you want to see, we actually have a prize pick separate tool too, that runs with our projections. All right.

Everyone wants a t-shirt. We'll get to that. Another Pierce look, Brian checking in with Pierce leading rusher for the week at plus 2,500 drafting so yeah can get there i don't know where that is comparative to the other market i know everyone that these here's the thing i i know that i i don't know who's like what like watching this show that doesn't also like that on golf at the same time but just compare like what would need to happen for damian pierce to be the top rusher of the week at 25 to one versus like a golfer.

You would bet at 25 to one. Like it just seems, it seems like the Damian Pierce, like all because it's the NFL and like the golf odds are better than the ground anyway. Like the true odds on that are probably like 75 to one. That, that actually wrecks my mind, Pat. And I love that you brought it up. And again, it might be only a small subset of our listeners. And then Connor does he'll bet golf. Like when he tails something that i feel really good about but like i have a hard time with like futures for the same reason you're talking about like a super bowl bet and it's like oh i love this long shot at like 30 to 1 and it's like well that's like 30 to 1 right that's like the middle of the board like that's actually i love that's good golfers and like you know guys that i think can actually win

an event yeah i think what happens is the NFL markets, especially the futures markets, and even odds like this are just so juiced because people want to like football is just so much more popular to bet on than any other sport. And realistically, in football, like what we're talking about are coin flips every single game. We're trying to find an edge on a coin flip and try to beat the market that way, whether it's a spread. I mean, people love betting like minus 200 money line favorites so the only market with like payoff and this is what like low limit players have they lose a lot of money because they don't want to bet a hundred dollars on a game or five hundred dollars on a game and they don't want to bet ten dollars on a minus 110 at the same time to win nine dollars so they're looking for a way to maximize their five dollars, their $10, their $15 bets. That's why you see so many parlays get put together

and just all of these losing situations that you put yourself into. But the markets in football where people just get so used to a minus 110, a minus 125, a plus 105, that when they start offering things like 25 to 1, listen, it could hit. Listen, I think it's in his range of outcomes this week. Most definitely. It does not happen. One in 25 times that happens one in 75 times. It's just,

you get so used to these like coin flips that a 25 to one looks like Bonanza. If you can hit it when it's just really not, it is not worth that. Right. Cause you're looking at the rest of this, this market here too. So it's like Jonathan Taylor at the top is like plus five 50 and and against the chiefs and then it's like derrick henry plus 850 i mean

it's just like every odds are all of them are bad you know what i mean so yeah they're horrible so then you're looking at like you're like scrolling down you're like oh damian pierce is like 15th on the board here behind you know like uh like damian harris you know what i mean you're like oh this is fine you know this is an okay okay look here so what I mean? You're like, oh, this is fun. You know, this is an okay look here. So like, yeah, it's all just like they condense the market. I'm sure the hold on this market is like insane, but it is a lot of fun. Well, let's just try to figure it out in real time right now.

So what did you say? Plus 550? Yeah. And what's Henry? Henry's plus 850. He's plus 850. And who are the next two? Mixon's 12 to 1 and Fournette is 14 to 1 14 to 1 to lead the so what you basically have is we'll just call it 500 just for the sake of this and

we'll call the other one 900 so you have what a 20 chance that jonathan taylor leads the league in rushing this week it's not true yeah definitely not true and then we have what a 12 and a half percent essentially on the plus 900 so we're already up to 32 percent just by the top two guys there's a lot of people that rush the ball throughout the course of the week and even at the 12 to 1 and the 14 to 1 so now we're going to add on another 8 now we're going to add on another 6 of it so that's 14 yeah the top four rushers, an overall hold that you're looking at in terms of probability,

we now have 48% of the probability wrapped up in four guys. And the rush in the market does not reflect that whatsoever. No, and it gets better. I mean, there's six more guys lower than 20 to one. You're looking at more 6%.

So that's another 20 to 25% wrapped up in those guys. And you're not even like halfway through the board. So we're up to 73% of total hold. So yeah, I get why people want to play it. And if you're right about Pierce and you think he can go off, listen, I'm not going to talk you out of it because those are, I play first touchdown bets, probably the stupidest market in all of football.

Why? Because I like to watch a quarter of a primetime game and go to bed. That's the bet that I want to have in on it. I get it. I get why it's fun to play those things. And this one is probably fun to play as well. But this market in particular is especially just ludicrous. The other mistake that's made too is the comparison solely to other bookmakers right where you're like oh it's x here but it's y on this site and it's like what's great like if you want to get down on that play you want the best number on the player but it doesn't mean that it's a good play or it's a good value right like it still can be a very donkey play. And then again, you can make negative EV plays.

It's okay. Not every bet that you get down has to, you know, run through the Sims and check out that you're maximized. It's okay. It's sometimes it's just good to be fun. That's why people bet football, they bet a touchdown props and first touchdown props and like first and last and all that crap. It is, it's okay to get down and not be on the best of the number or have EV, but just be careful with it. There are things that you want to be smarter on, and these are fun bets. We got down.

Actually, in our Discord, someone popped. These numbers actually broke on FanDuel. Steph Diggs was 24-1 to be the top yardage receiver for the week. That's a bad number it feels like it's now but it's not though that's probably actually like a true value correct now it's now now it's down to nine right where comparatively to the rest of the market he looked like a sore thumb because it's like why is steph diggs all the way down here in a game that everyone's expecting to like shoot out into the 50s he's coming off of a massive game. Why is Steph digs 24 when like Cortland Sutton is 21,

right? Like, so again, that can help in the screenshots, like comparatively, but it's also dangerous. Yeah. Does digs have a 4% chance to lead the week in receiving? I actually say it's probably below that considering he's probably like a, I't know 66 favorite 70 favorite to be the leading receiver on his team you always have to think about that stuff too but yeah compared to what you're getting at the best odds that you're gonna find at like plus money right now because it's early in the season they're running all these promotions or just wait for whatever the random touchdown boost is of the primetime game that night and take it. I mean, they're going to, they're going to limit you, but this probably isn't for huge betters anyway. Like, uh, I mean,

I can use bet three, six, five where I'm at, uh, for the Monday night football game. They were like Steph digs plus 300 anytime touchdowns, like just take it. Like he was minus one 20 to score a touchdown. They're just the max. You can bet on it. Just find those and max bet them. I don't care if you think it's going to happen or not. Those are actually the best odds you're going to get. I got to pop in here real quick. Again, another update.

Just got an update from Fantasy Life app here. Justin Herbert not throwing today during period of practice open in the media. So the line is not on a three and a half. So someone else is a little bit more confident than I am

that Justin Herbert's not playing. Hopefully some of you guys there in the chat got down on some sixes, three and a half. So someone else is a little bit more confident than I am that Justin Herbert's not playing. Hopefully some of you guys there in the chat got down on some sixes, five and a half, because we're hanging around there for the last 20, 30 minutes. But now it looks like it's down to three and a half at some spots. So pretty wild movement there. Interesting to see. So we appreciate your questions. We went on a tangent today, so we didn't get to all your questions.

But we appreciate you guys, as always. We will uh back in this spot of course next week real quick though uh producer sal give me a yay or nay do you have a prop we'll get to that real quick um but i don't see your prop tool up so i'm not sure if you're ready to go he's got a prop sal hit it. All right, this is our prop tool tied to our projections at 444. Been best in the industry for over a decade. Available as part of a betting sub at 444, which will secure you access to literally everything on the site head to four four four dot com slash plans and you can find that we have christian kirk over 60 and a half receiving yards

uh this is on draft kings at minus 115 um yeah i mean connor's on uh the other side there with you know shorting marvin jones christian kirk has been utilized in a pretty exciting way so far. Pat, let's get started. Any thoughts on Christian Kirk? It's higher now, right? Like, especially now that Herbert might not be playing. I feel like that one's just really dicey until you know what the situation is. We're going to see a low scoring game, I think, now at this point.

So I probably lean under. Or at least just, I mean, it's probably about right. 60 is just, I mean, it's fine. Feels like a good number. Projections have him at 74 and a half. So showing some value on it. But yeah, I kind of agree with the guys here. We're up about eight, nine yards from where Kirk has been.

Again, he's gone over this. He's been utilized, like I said, creatively out of the backfield. In the slot, they've been, you know, being smart and isolating him in good matchups. But yeah, we'll see. Producer Sal. Missed last week. Again, we talked about poo pooing, running back,

receiving overs and Javante fell a little bit flat there, but I'll, Sal's going to get back on the, on the saddle. So Pat, where can everyone find your stuff? At the PME on Twitter, male media network on the YouTubes.

If you're already on the YouTubes and you're watching, it's an easy switch over. After you finish this, go check it out. Me and Tambo just talked about DraftKings picks. And I mean, we thought Justin Herbert was playing, so it's kind of weird to promote that now. But it was a fun discussion. I actually changed up my DraftKings show this year

for Daily Fantasy. And I think it's better now than it ever has been because it's more of an open discussion about how are we actually going to play lineups this week? It's like well do you like cup or jefferson in your lines it's like well if you're not playing stafford and you're not playing cousins those two guys aren't an option so you know what i mean yeah it makes sense yeah check that out uh tambo what did he won showdown or something last night too right he won 40k last night no big deal just prince all the time so yeah pretty sharp

guy check that out on uh mayo media network bro they spent 20 minutes on one question and answer to bro we're just trying to provide good content i thought we gave you some good stuff there we can drop anyone who starts the fucking thing with bro can go fuck themselves uh everyone else drop your email in the chat get a t-shirt um you know we're trying to help here okay give them free t-shirts too so yeah yeah we're trying we're trying here so uh all right for pat and connor i'm ryan we'll be back next week you