Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 4 2023 Player PROP BETS | Top Picks, Predictions & Odds

Episode Date: September 29, 2023

Unlock the best NFL Week 4 2023 Player Prop Bets with our expert analysis! Dive deep into top picks, predictions, and odds for the upcoming games. Find out which Raheem Mostert and tackle props we like for Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season!Whether you're a seasoned prop bettor or new to prop betting, our insights will guide you to make informed decisions. Stay ahead of the game with our expert breakdowns and maximize your winning potential.CHAPTERS:0:00 Intro5:36 Joe Burrow Week 4 Prop Bet10:08 CJ Stroud NFL Prop Bet11:55 Tank Dell NFL Player Prop Bet Week 415:14 Week 4 NFL Player Prop Bet17:00 Raheem Mostert Week 4 Player Prop Bet17:54 Nico Collins Week 4 Prop Bet21:15 Jaylen Waddle Prop Bet Week 422:44 Raheem Mostert NFL Player Prop Bet Week 425:46 Keenan Allen Week 4 Prop Bet36:24 NFL Tackle Props40:25 Chiefs vs Jets Bets44:29 Travis Kelce Taylor Swift44:44 Week 4 NFL Same-Game Parlay50:34 Marvin Mims Prop Bet52:44 Audience Questions1:03:37 OutroSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow John on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/sloprulesVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

Hello and welcome to Move the Line, Prop Drop Show presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonanton back to talk about the best way the most profitable way to bet on nfl football and that is to play a props live here 2 p.m eastern every friday on the 444 bets youtube channel hanging out with my friends here giving out our favorite player props and taking your questions if you're hanging out with us now on youtube jump in the chat let us know what your favorite prop of the week is. If you want our thoughts on the play, feel free to ask as well. Trying to get to as many as possible at the end of the show. Joining us live on YouTube is the optimal way to do this. This is the best chance for you to get the same number, same price on

these props. They move fast. We have a loyal audience that we appreciate. So podcast feed, you never know. There's some pick-em sites out there, some stuff that may be slow books and they drag along. Podcasts should be in your podcast feed on Friday evenings. Subscribe to both the YouTube channel and the podcast so you don't miss a show. Joining me here, as always, Connor Allen.

What's going on, buddy? Not a whole lot. Some great props on the board. The people are saying that i've been corrupted by slop though a lot of overs been coming out of my account and but honestly it's been going well started off 2-0 last night hit a little christian watson longest reception over had to get my under in though on aj dylan i mean what a scrub i mean i'm truly unbelievable they hung a 40 yard rushing line it opened and then we got it at 37 and a half i mean yeesh so happy to be two and oh heading into this weekend i think i mean you got to start

somewhere with a sweep right i mean that's what they say it's like if you're going to sweep the board you got to be two and oh at least on thursday simple math slop you can't win them all unless you win the first one or two what's going on with you buddy how you doing i'm living the dream guys living the dream i, I'll be honest with you. This, I'm probably going to drop the greatest bet of all time, like in literally less than 10 minutes. So I feel good.

So yeah, to answer your question, if that makes me feel good, that does. You can find slop on Twitter at slop rules. And obviously lots of great stuff that he does a part of the team over at odds jam. So definitely want to check all that stuff out.

Hey, teed it up here for you. We'll be giving some winners. We're giving out some plus money winners here. Some of the long shots of the week have come through. Slop giving you 9-1 a couple weeks ago on James Cook rushing yards. I told you to use uncorrelated pieces of Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson to get over 125 last week at 9-1. Came through for you there as well. So we're giving out some free winners for you.

So I know Connor's already committed to winning all of his bets this week. So I feel like we got some more good stuff coming for you. So I don't want to overstep Connor, but I feel good about your mojo. You've been firing, you're heavy, you got heavy early action on a Friday. So it's good stuff. Yeah, it felt good. I mean, the only thing that didn't feel good we got cucked on the deandre hopkins over i was literally messaging you at like 11 50 i was like hey jalen burks is not going to play because we got the fantasy life app so they gave us notification he wasn't practicing was like limited then dnp dnp which means that he's not going to play and so i was like we got to get in on this hopkins over and you're like yeah good call i'm literally typing

it up not not even the the type the write-up, just the alert to send out to the subs. Then they push it out, uh, Burke's out pulled everywhere off the board. I was like, oh, you know, I hate to see it now. It's like minus one 50. I honestly, I don't still mind it. Uh, but I don't know if I really want to lay that much juice on an over right now. So I'll probably just hang out and maybe take a, take a backseat, play it a different way in that game. I know it's tough. I've had, I've been on the wrong side of like write-ups this week for our official plays where you know in the tackle side where things have moved or um try to fire here just before the show when we get some steam on a play that opened up five minutes ago if you happen

to be listening grand delpit safety for the browns excuse me five and a half tackles uh i'm gonna take the over on that. Came out at plus 120. Move real quick. Couldn't put that out officially for our people, but minus 110 still on DraftKings. I'd go ahead and play that right now if you were hanging out with us. It's still worth a look.

So it won't be an official play for me, unfortunately, because it's going to move. But if you're hanging out, you're rewarded free tackle play to get the show started. So reminder, there are two episodes of Move the Line each week. This is Prop Drop. This is Fridays. This is Props.

Game previews, Connor, myself, Sharp Clark, Wednesdays, 3 p.m. Eastern. Again, still on the 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel and still on the Move the Line podcast feed. A great time to get the betting subscription at 4 for 4. We're talking about these official plays that we push through. Those are to our subscribers at four for four. We're talking about these official plays that we push through. Those are to our subscribers at four for four that have the betting subscription. That is through our discord. That is really,

in my opinion, the crown jewel of the sub you get to chat with like-minded, passionate, degenerates, live sweats, you know, Island games, Sundays,

all those things. It's a great community. I fire in bets all the time in there. Again, the bank sub gets access to everything at 444. So if you're playing DFS, you're still doing traditional season long. You want rankings, projections, all the tools, articles, all that stuff that we have going on over there. That is accessible to you through the betting subscription.

If you're playing any of the Pick'em sites, PrizePicks, Underdog, Vivid, we have picks channels on the uh discord there for you as well so again great content go over to four for four dot com slash plans and look here in the show notes if you want more details definitely want to check that out so connor no stale bread these are live for you to bet right now floor is yours get us started with your first play here for week one or week four. I'm sorry. Yeah, I think that we had to know this one was coming here. I'm playing Joe Burrow over 24 and a half completions in this spot. I mean, he was literally couldn't move last

week. So the way that the Bengals handled that was they went into shotgun 98% of the time last week and went to the quick game. So 36 of his 49 pass attempts were within nine yards of the line of scrimmage. And if we look at how that matches up against the Titans, they're a massive pass funnel. Their run defense is awesome. Their front seven is really good, but their pass defense is really bad, even when they're fully healthy.

We're looking at a team here that between one to nine yards of the line of scrimmage, they're allowing a 92% completion rate. 40 of the 44 pass attempts this season have been completed so far in that range. So I think we're going to get, they also started moving Jamar Chase into the slot a little bit. So like we got a little bit more yak action there with him in the slot, a little bit more efficiency there. So I think we're going to see a ton of throwing here from this Bengals team, not very much handoff and they do, it probably won't be that efficient. So my only concern would

be if there's like literally zero pushback from the Titans. But this Bengals defense, you know, hasn't really shown enough through a couple of weeks, I think, to be that that dominant, even in a pretty good spot here. So and even if they aren't, I mean, like that, you know, Bengals Rams game, like there was like they got up after a little while and still just kept throwing, throwing, throwing. It didn't matter. I was begging for mixing touches there at the end because I had hit some overs and we weren't getting them for a while. So thankfully hit that over. But I do like this over on Joe Burrow's completions, 24 and a half. You can find that it's plus one to five

at MGM. I mean, whatever you can get down on that congrats. Um, but minus one 14 fan duel, minus one 15 draft Kings. Uh, I think I would play it to like, I don't know, probably minus one 25 minus one 30, but it should be widely available. And then shout out to Adam in the Discord. He, we had a couple of subs trying to guess our plays and he did guess that this would be one of my plays. So congrats, Adam. Yeah, this was an obvious play.

We were on it. I bet it earlier. I actually, same game parlayed a little bit of this too with T Higgins over receptions, Jamar Chase over receptions you know just a massive bright bright shining red light bounce back spot for T Higgins who kind of crapped the bed in a big way with a couple of drops there in prime time they moved Chase in the slot he got fed in the second half love that slot part of your thoughts here on you know burrowing on in the practice or the injury report here or practice on Friday?

It's good news. The only thing I worry about is what Connor said, no pushback from the Titans, but I bet they do. They're not just going to score nothing. You know what I mean? Like, you'll get something. And if you get anything that, yeah, no, I hear what you're saying, but I don't see, I think they do something.

You know what I mean? I don't think it's going to be like they just lay down. But T. Higgins has been targeted like 5,000 times this season. He's only caught like three balls. So this is a perfect spot for him to just get right. They're not going to target him. You know what I mean? At some point, he's going to start catching balls.

We're talking T. Higgins here. So, yeah, no, this is just perfect all the way around. Plus, because he's going to be so efficient, I mean, literally he could get there in like 30 attempts. It's like 25 of 30 is like very reasonable given what we've seen from Burrow and how well they played, at least throwing the ball short

and how bad Tennessee's been at defending the short passes. Yeah, I looked at the attempts over. It's like 36 and a half. But for that reason, I was like, oh, I think the completions, banking on the efficiency is probably the right way to go because i think the systemic risk that comes with a bottom bottoming out from tennessee probably hurts the attempts as well so the efficiency is probably the way to go so people want to know if the bets are going to be as good as the bowling i

mean if you weren't following slop if you're not following slop on twitter uh you know really close to teasing a 300 yesterday you know i don't know i feel like the bowling um can be beat and has been beat consistently here with the picks as good as the bowling's been so i don't know you want to speak to the bowling you want to speak to the picks i'll be honest with you it's so fun to get to the 10th frame like perfect i've done that three times and I've never finished it. So now at this point, it's time to finish one. I mean,

like I said, you can only have so much fun first few times, but now like I really need to finish one. Like I'm sitting here today thinking, man, I wish I finished that. Cause you don't know how many times you're going to get there, man.

I know. I never got close. So, so you might never get there. I got to do it for the guys who have never and have no shot at ever getting there. And I was very close last night. It was tough, but I feel good today, guys. Okay.

Well, let's get us a winner. All right. So I think – I'm pretty sure I gave some variation of this out last week on this show. If I didn't, then just disregard that. But C.J. Stroud, I'm going to go 300-plus at plus 470 at FanDuel. Look, man, this game should play out exactly how the Raiders played out last week against the Steelers. They couldn't run the ball, but they threw it.

Jimmy G, with a concussion, threw for 320-plus, so there is that. And I don't know, watching Stroud last week, he should have went 300-plus against Jacksonville. That tight end wouldn't have run back a kick. We were home. You know what I mean? He still went over his 275 or 250, I think is what I had, but he still hit 275.

I think he got the 280. I see this playing out literally the same way. The Steelers, you can throw on them. I know the Texans don't have a line. I get all that, but this kid moves around. That should be fine. They're going to get behind, and if they're in a trailing game script, I don't see how this doesn't hit.

Again, you could even do, if you wanted to get safe, you could do 275 at plus 240 right now, or you could do 250 plus at plus 130. You could go 325 at plus 850. I mean, everything literally is in play for C.J. Stroud Sunday. I can't wait for this game. I wish it started right now. So who are you pairing him with? Like you got any receivers in mind? You rolled back

Tank Dell or Nico? I think I'm about to take Bryant. Whoa. Step up. That's actually... That is literally what we're doing here. Again, we hadn't planned this. Again, I didn't look at the show sheet. I don't know, Slop, if you put that

on the show sheet, I might have missed it. But Tank Dell is my next play. so we can talk about this and start to build uh you know same game parlay action if you want there's a lot of ways to do it i had the notes too as part of this so awesome agree like 300 plus a plus 470 on fanduel i mean his line is too stroud again 242 and a half but you can just go up to 250 at plus 130 on FanDuel. It's a great way to do it. So anyway, Tank Dell, there's a lot of ways to do this too. My favorite way to do it is I'm going to go,

and I'm going to bet it right now because I didn't. I put it out to subscribers. I haven't even hit it yet. We're going to hit it right now. We're going to go over three and a half receptions. I think the best way to do that, again, he's a big ADOT guy, but I think just the volume we've seen of lights is really nice. So we're going to hit three and a half receptions.

See, this is what we're doing. We wait until the show. I'm giving it out and hitting it as we talk. Let's place the bet. All right, good. We're good to go. 17 targets past two weeks. That's formulated into a 23 and 24 percent target

share which has been awesome um he was the first read last week on 31.6 percent of the dropbacks for his jacksonville that led the team and we've seen a little bit of a shift like he's kind of come in with noah brown going out and we've seen like tangel even starting to eat into the nico collins stuff and nico collins has awesome too, but I don't know. I just, I think he's just too quick for these Pittsburgh corners. Like Levi Wallace is like six, three. Pat Peterson is like, but these are big boys. They're big physical corners and they're getting absolutely torched so far.

The season teams are throwing at a pretty heavy rate. So even without the game script going wonky to slop's point, like the Texans are leaning very heavy on the pass they're like fifth in neutral game uh pass rate so like they're leaning on stroud to get it done so like 45 and a half is the yardage you can go 50 plus for plus 106 you can go all the way up to 100 plus at uh 850 on DraftKings. So we're going to need Dell to be heavily involved if Stroud's going to get there as well. Again, like we've cleared this easily the past couple weeks.

Same thing, 72 yards, 145 last week. Like those are why the ladders are appealing. So, yeah, I'm in on the Texans. Team total over 19.5 is very interesting to me too. Like I'm in on the Texans offense this week. So Dell, if you want to throw some Nico stuff in there too, to kind of build out the same game stuff,

I like the Stroud and take Dell. Hey, maybe that's what you want to do. Want to give them the option. So call her any Texans thoughts. Now that slop and I both kind of hit that. No, I think it's a great look.

Ben Solak did a great breakdown on CJ Stroud, and he's just like cooking, man. Like if you get him an offensive line, maybe a real alpha wide receiver one, you know, like I mean he could be legit awesome. No hate on Nico. No hate on Tank Dell. I mean – He's had a rough day last week. They're betas.

You know, they're betas. You know, it's like it's all right. I think that's funny. What he did in the first two weeks. Yeah. all right. I think that's fine. What he did in the first two weeks. Yeah. All right. Well, we're already getting a little spicy Conover. This is the spicy section of the show.

Floor is yours. Second play. Long shot. Same game parlay. Where are you looking to go here? Yeah, I'm taking some alt overs on. It's not necessarily a player prop, but kind of as a prop, on some Maltovers on Miami Buffalo. Right now the over-under is 53.

My hot take of the week, there's going to be 70-plus combined points in that game. And part of the reason is that Miami's defense has not been good so far this season. They're bottom five in both success rate, rushing and passing allowed so far. On top of that, we've seen Josh Allen, Carver, Vic Fangio defenses. I think you included that in one of your write-ups, Noonan as well with one of the plays there. And so we have a Bills offense that we saw bounce back in a major way the last two weeks against much softer competition. They get more soft competition this week, but they also get a Dolphins team that I think is going to push back massively offensively. And I do have an

official play coming from this game later. So I don't want to get too deep into it, but I'd really, really like this passing game here specifically, because I think that while this Bill's defense is good, no Jordan Poyer is interesting. They've also played very soft competition. So I'm pretty bullish on the Dolphins team, figuring a lot out here and scoring plenty. So some all tovers in this game. And I think this is like, in my mind, the ultimate same game parlay game of the week, like a stefan diggs 100 plus tyree kill 300 plus you know tua and josh allen like 70 plus points i don't know what that gets you but it's probably worth betting because i think we could see fireworks here yeah it's like you know you play dfs and you can't you worry about like oh i can't like game stack the chalky, chalky game

because it's both chalky and it would cost you basically all your salary. But you can do that when you're betting. Who cares if it's popular? Who cares if it's six points higher than every other total and it makes a ton of sense? Yeah, you can go there. I have another leg for you in that too. I don't even know if you can add it in there.

I was considering giving it out, but I'm going to just sneak it in here. Raheem Mostert, longest rush, over 15.5 yards on his longest rush. Buffalo's rush has been pretty hot and cold. They have allowed the second highest rate of 15-plus yard carries in the league. Mostert is second league in 15 plus yard carries easy game uh minus 105 on draft kings for that so sometimes those are wonky i don't know if you can add that to the same game parlay because it's a sort of a unique prop um but yeah i like your thoughts in that game i think there's gonna be a lot of points and uh yeah i

mean another shout out to to Solak Peace. Solak Peace on the, you know, pro historic things that we might be seeing from Miami Daniel, this Dolphins offense. It's going to be pretty exciting, too. Another great read for him over there on the ringer. So, all right, Slop, how about for you? You know, elaborate, alt legs. What do you like here?

I'm going to go right back to the steelers texans game a guy we just talked about nico collins look i don't know what happened last week not sure but i'll go right back to him 100 plus yards plus 450 vandal right now the steelers have been getting dominated by the alpha receivers like the first week of the season, I think Brandon Ayuk, if you want to call him that, I guess he operates as that since Debo Samuel is kind of a utility guy, like a Swiss Army knife. But he, career game. Amari Cooper, career game.

Not really, 90 yards, but still, we'll call it career game. Last week, Devonta Adams out there setting records. I think, again, if the game script goes the way I think it does, they're going to force feed Nico Collins, your guy Tank Dell. Everyone's going to eat because, obviously, since CJ Stroud's stolen for at least 325 yards, everyone needs to get something. I think Collins goes 100-plus, no big deal.

Love it. Yeah, I'm with you. I'm in on that game i'm in on stroud i've seen enough i'm not super worried about the pittsburgh defense yeah i like that uh i like it quite a bit i wanted to build something maybe with uh with the jacksonville passing game i really like the jacksonville passing game this week i think that some of the uh spots that we don't think too, like I think they'll be able to win over the middle of the field. So, you know, whether it's pro Lawrence stuff,

I know Connor's in early on Christian Kirk this week, which I think makes it made a ton of sense early, even speculatively with Zay Jones being out, but Kirk, Evan Ingram, you get the revenge game narrative with, with Calvin Ridley there too. I haven't built it out. I haven't built it out. I haven't priced it out because not all of it was out earlier when I was looking for it, but now it's all out there. So I want some really pro Jacksonville passing game stuff.

That's, you know, alt overs 300 plus on Lawrence. And yeah, I really want to get into some alt stuff, specifically on the stuff over the middle of the field, kind of the way I think the Troy Anderson injury for the, for the Falcons is going to be key this season. Like he's really good at like covering tight ends and slowing stuff down. I think that's going to be a big one. He's out for the,

at least extended period of time he's on IR. So I think you're going to see a lot of good stuff from Evan Ingram here. So I expect some good stuff and that's a, you know, it's a London game. So you want to wake up and get a winner before you even jump into the main slate. You know, expect some good stuff. And that's a, you know, it's a London game. So you want to wake up and get a winner before you even jump into the main slate. You know, you're watching the Ryder Cup,

hopefully, you know, sweating that out. Maybe if there's even a sweat to be had, then you get some early Ws in London and then pro Jag stuff there. So that's a look for me. Is there anything else that you like there, Connor? Because I know you took that Christian Kirk play early in the week.

No, I think that my biggest note was that we should just stay the course with this Jags offense. I think that we'll see better games from them. We've seen a couple of duds in a row here. So I think Christian Kirk's in a great spot here. We played his over at like 49. I think we're sitting like low 50s. I think it's still too low.

I mean, if you think back to last year when we were getting Christian Kirk and just Zay Jones before the passing game was supposed to be better, those those were both like high fifties, like low sixties, most of the time. Now you're getting Christian Kirk low fifties and you know, like he's gonna be playing like 90 plus percent of the snap. So I think it's just like, you know, I'm mispricing to be honest. All right. Back to you, buddy. Your, uh, your normal props. What do you got? Yeah. Normal prop. Um um my second one here is going to be jaylen waddle over 59 and a half receiving yards i mean i like was going back and i just like couldn't really believe this because the stats behind it i think are wild

so the past two years jaylen waddle has played a two tongue of iloa in 14 games so last year weeks one through three seven through 16 and then weeks one two this year he was healthy in those 14 games he has 60plus receiving yards in 12 of them. He has 80-plus receiving yards in nine of the 14, 100-plus in five of the 14. I mean, he's massively explosive. He has 200-plus yard games against Buffalo. Buffalo's missing Jordan Poyer.

It's not like he's recovering from an ankle injury. He has a concussion. Once you're cleared, you're just good to go. You're back to being yourself. And so we're getting 59 yards. I haven't seen a Jalen while probably in the fifties. I don't even know, maybe ever, like honestly, since like maybe the beginning of last season. Um, so yeah, I get, he's a little bit more volatile, but considering what we expect to be a high scoring game here at like, you know, back and forth affair. I think that Waddle here is a great look on like high fifties,

even low sixties. Like, I think this prop should honestly realistically be priced here in like 66 67 yards uh it's like a fair median price here because i mean both he and tyreek i think could have massive games here against buffalo so i don't know maybe i'm sipping too much of the miami kool-aid but uh you know i'm all the way in here and this is just like way too mispriced it's not a bad place to be slop uh thoughts on waddle thoughts on that game at all i love everything that game in fact my next guy is literally from that game fire it up let's go love it oh all right so uh raheem mostard go 60 plus rushing yards at fan duels plus money i think it's like plus 116 or something right there you could go up to 70 80

i mean if you if you want to get wild you can but uh i i know there's like plus 116 or something right there you could go up to 70 80 i mean if you if you want to get wild you can but uh i i know there's gonna be passing don't be wrong but it the reason why there's gonna be so much offense because i bet you miami can run the ball on them and i don't know that this is gonna get out of hand so we're not gonna see so much a chain like i mean he's gonna be there don't be wrong but i don't think it's gonna be like it was last week where you know he only i think most only had like 14, 15 carries. I could be wrong, but it wasn't a lot for him. I think he could have near 20.

And if he gets that against Buffalo's defense, I'm sorry. He's getting home. Brian Robinson, in probably the worst game script ever for a running back, had like 70 yards last week. They got beat like 1,000 to to two and he still had 70 yards. The Raiders couldn't run on them, but that's a Raiders problem. Josh Jacobs, I think had negative yards, but that's again, that's a Raiders problem. That's not a Buffalo defense just because,

and look at the jets in the first week, they had no threat of a pass. Brees Hall's out there running for a hundred plus yards, even though 80 of those was on one carry 80 plus, but still, I don't know. I don't trust Buffalo's defense. I think you can run on them. I think Mosher's going to at least get 60 yards. He's not going to get 60 without getting 15 and a half on the board there

too, so I'm with you. That's a valid point. He's going to get 16 of those on one carry. Minimum. At least one carry so that you're already at 16. Yeah, so you're pretty much... I like that. I think there's going to be all kinds of offense in that game. Everything about it just looks like over city. Yeah, I like it.

I like it quite a bit. Finding different ways to get into it I think makes a ton of sense. So yeah, I'm with that with you guys real quick. I just priced out the Jags same game parlay. I just talked about Lawrence two 50 plus Lawrence is two 37 and a half is his number feels really low two 50 plus Ridley 75 plus, and then Ingram and Kirk plus um gets you to plus 750 four legs um you know slight alts on the over but nothing crazy uh plus 750 on uh on draft kings for

that one so yeah i mean 237 and a half feels really light for uh for uh lawrence there yeah all right uh i wanted to do something different with this because I was waiting for some of the other side. I think the Raiders are waiting for obviously Jimmy Garoppolo to be official in terms of like concussion protocol and working back from there. Cause I think some of his receivers, I mean receivers against the chargers has been a spot that we should be taking advantage of the season.

And I want to go back to the well with, with both Kobe Myers and Devonta. And I think they are both in a massive, massive spots here in terms of like receptions and the volume that they can get. Another number that's sitting on the board feels really high. This is might not be for everyone. This is,

you know, going to the alphas. We went to the alphas last week and the alphas eight. I want to do it again here. Keenan Allen is over seven and a half receptions at plus 120 on draft case. It's a big number. We need to get to eight receptions. Like 20 targets last week.

There have been 14 games since 2020 that Keenan Allen has played without Big Mike and without Austin Eckler. In those games, he's averaged 8.1 receptions on 11.1 targets for 85 and a half receiving yards. It's about 13 and a half more receiving yards than a typical Keenan Allen game and about one and a half more targets and two more catches. So again, without Josh Palmer stepping in, Quinton Johnston you know rookie really kind of stepping up like they are just going to be looking to feed Keenan Allen over and over and over again in this game uh and we'll have a ton of success so yeah it's a big number you need to get to eight receptions that's a big number in the NFL but we're getting plus 120 for it on DraftKings and I feel like that

is really worth it to me on a game where he could absolutely see again, another 13, 14, 15 targets. If Garoppolo's in and the Raiders are able to kind of hang here a little bit, even without it, like Josh Kelly has been terrible. So like they're just using Keenan Allen as an extension of the running game, you know, just kind of like these little short little stuff over the middle to move the chains and then, you know, occasionally just letting him leak out. So like that again, big number, but I like the money, uh, Connor, I know that's not a typical play for

you. Did you look at Keenan Allen? Any thoughts here on Keenan Allen at a plus one 20? I did. Maybe it was foolish. I was hoping to get like a juice six and a half, like maybe minus one 30 minus one 40. I mean, the Raiders also allowing a 77% catch rate on wide receiver targets, 9.1 yards per target so far this season. So defense is not very good and he should see a ton of volume. I mean, you saw the reports too last week after the game, it was like Brandon Staley, you know, went up to Justin Herbert was like, yeah, you were just going to throw it every play and you're going to go out there and win the game for us.

And they did. And so, I mean, kind of, yeah, I mean, they mostly did, but like, I think in this spot, we're probably going to hopefully see more of the same. I mean, kind of, yeah, I mean, they mostly did, but, but like, I think in this spot, we're probably going to hopefully see more of the same. I mean, that's like good football. Like no one cares. No one wants to watch Josh Kelly, you know, run into his offensive lineman 15, 20 times a game. We want to watch Justin Herbert go out there and throw the damn ball.

So, but now it adds in that layer. Like if, you know, Mike Williams is out, like, what do they do with that? Because like Austin Eckler went out and they went like massively pass heavy. They're like, all right, we're just not running the ball anymore, which I think was partially matchup dependent too. But I think it's a little bit more wait and see where they do that again. If they throw the ball 40 plus times again, Keenan's heading over, like for sure. And I think, how do you feel about that?

That's, I guess, would be my only hangup. It's like they don't throw the ball 40 plus times. Yeah. I mean, again, that's the Raiders. This is where these things have to, these things die. You know, the other team too doesn't really kind of hold their weights, but I don't know. They've just been,

I just don't feel like they feel super confident turning around and handing it to Josh Kelly to get it done. Cause he's been so bad even in, you know, last week in a really nice spot against Minnesota, just couldn't get anything going. So I feel like they want to, you want to lean on what can get it done. And right now that is definitely the passing game, and it gets really thin without Eckler and Mike Williams in there.

Again, Josh Palmer could be nice. I think Quentin Johnston eventually. Right now it's like it's what happened in the second half last week. Even when Big Mike was in there because he went down in the fourth quarter, Keenan had like 20 targets in that game. So, yeah, I mean, still, again, it's basically plus money across the board. It's moved a little bit on DraftKings, still plus 110. Like, I have no problem with that. So again, if it was minus 110, minus 115, like we typically see in a standard prop, I mean, I lean over on it anyway. So yeah, I mean mean i think there is obviously risk anytime you're climbing the ladder

this high on uh you know on an alpha receiver you're chasing prop numbers into the seven eight range on receptions or we're getting up into you know 80 90 yards on receiving yards it's high so i understand why some people are just naturally resistant to those things but uh yeah i mean just a great player who i think is going to absolutely crush here so no problem as we come within the plus money you know if you want to wait again if you are it's not my thing but we all the time we want to talk about occasionally i know a lot of our listeners like it the same game parlay stuff you're bringing it back with the jacoby myers who and if we get like four and four and a half five and a half juiced five and a half plus money five and a half on jacoby would be really nice um you know might soften the can, you know, go in for a little bit less money and, you know,

juice up the odds a little bit that way. So that'd be a look for me too. Yeah. No, I think that's probably a good point. Transition right into the. Are you, are you lagging behind right now? A little bit. We got a little bit, a little bit of juice on the internet here.

Okay. So we have some breaking news here from the NFL. I mean, we're gambling shows. We got to talk about this. Gambling policies have changed now in the NFL. Well, no, the, the opposite. I was about to say, I was going to start hitting their lines and we would be making, we getting rich, baby. No. So I think that it says basically that they changed the policies that you now are suspended for a year. If you bet on the NFL in certain like ways, I guess, but for some reason they reduced Jamison Williams suspension so that now he's good to go for next week and, and Titans offensive tackle Nick petite fair,

which I mean, the Titans need Jesus on the offensive line right now. They need so much help. So anything they can get back there is incredible. So, yeah, some interesting breaking news there. But I don't really understand why that makes too much sense. It says betting on a non-NFL sports from the workplace will now lead to just a two-game suspension. So you cannot bet on anything.

So if I'm at practice and I want to bet on some NBA, I'm only getting two games. Yeah. Only two games. I mean, it can be worth it. You know, like if you get like a little,

yeah. Like, did you win? Yeah. Right. The salary you lose. Yeah. Plus,

especially for some of these guys, like if you're a bears player, like you got to win at something at some point, like you't take an l's all week you know you want to risk injury playing for the bears you're you might you might want to throw down you might want to bet on some nfl out of this season totally and yeah that could be a way out for these guys i give you a way out for them yeah. That could be a way out for them. Yeah. Got to think outside the box when you're a Chicago Bear.

Yeah. That's a good point. That's interesting. I mean, first of all, they should be able to, I guess, I mean, especially if it's non-NFL, I don't know. I always thought, too, it's like if you're betting on the NBA and you're a, you know, whatever, you're an NFL player, i don't think it's the same punishment i'm just saying it's not the same thing like i mean i i totally get the nfl like you can't bet on nfls i i 100 understand that

but like you're betting on basketball i gotta i don't know like i don't think it really matters it's like playing blackjack to me it'd be like the same thing like you're just gambling i like it i like you know again let's you know i understand not wanting to have these guys betting on their own games or even betting on the nfl at all uh so i understand that you know we are in uh i mean just the fact that we're even having these conversations comparatively where we were a decade ago like this progress so we know it's like man like that stocks they shouldn't be dinged for betting on college while they're at the facility it's like we do should have some expectations that like we should ease into this a little bit because this is such a a wild jump from where we were such

a very long time ago the stigma of you know the nfl and you know even or betting in the nfl and even betting in general like us like us 20 years ago we all had like we were three buttons down gold chains chest hair popping we were yelling it was 900 numbers it was locks of the week so like we've evolved as a society um connor doesn't remember that but like even his gamblers though like i mean i'm sending money orders to Costa Rica and hoping it gets there. I was going to the Western Union and sending money on the car ride home waiting to see if it got in. You go to the website and just

pray that it's in because there was times where it wasn't in. Western Union is like, are you sure? You know the person you're sending this money to? All four names on here. They're all Spanish names and Costa Rica.

Yeah. That's my friend. I hope that's the right order. Yeah. No, that was a Sunday morning tradition for a couple of years. Yeah. Are you serious? That sounds horrible.

I mean, I would be there too. So, I mean, I'm not blaming you. Well, originally you could just load up um online accounts like with your check card and credit card and then they stopped that it was like remember party poker and all those sites like like it was about that time like just it just stopped so now it's like all right well i'm not quitting gambling so i gotta figure something out so there was all kinds of different like wallets you could get online or you could do the money order thing. And it was, yeah, Western Union, five diamonds and just say a prayer. That prayer was answered a lot of times too.

Prayer was, yeah. No, I didn't. I never had money not get there. I did one time. Yeah. One time. It was not a good time. I mean, my first experience was just like waiting.

Well, outside of like, you know, Bavada or whatever, when I was like 15, I made some accounts under my dad's name. But like it was like, you know, waiting for the fraternity bookie just like come and find you on every Monday morning. Either it was a nice payday with some money or he's like, you know, where's my money basically. Yeah. So that was my first experience. You know what I mean? Yeah, exactly. Yeah.

It was either a good Monday or a bad Monday. Good if you were calling him. Yeah. No, we had guys too. Like, that's how it was too. Like, it got, like, high tech when they could have a website. So it would be like the paper heads now, but it was like back then. They'd run it through there, and you'd have to call a number.

They'd record it. You know what I'm saying? That way they could play it back. If you said you didn't make the bet, you know, it's like you hammered. I was like, ah, that is me. I did make that bet. You know what I'm saying? That way they could play it back. If you said you didn't make the bet, you know, it's like you hammered. It's like, ah, that is me. I did make that bet. You know what I mean? Or you could go to the website.

We thought it was just like the best thing ever, you know, because like you could like – That's a huge jump up. It was so crazy that you could do that. Because otherwise you were calling somebody, and that always sucked. Because it just did, you know. Yeah. Different world. Different world. Yeah. Different world.

Yeah, all right. That's good news in the betting streets. We're progressing. It's good. I want to transition to tackles real quick. One that kind of worked in conjunction with the Keenan Allen play. Official tackle plays in the season, doing pretty good. 21 and 11 on the official tackle plays in the season doing pretty good 21 and 11 on the official tackle

plays so if you're into uh you know 64 percent hit rates and like 30 percent roi maybe get a betting sub i don't know um if you like money it's kind of a thing so keaton ellen's gonna catch a bunch of balls someone's gonna tackle him and that's gonna be our boy nate hobbs who has uh been a friend of the show for a couple of years now and puts up some tackle volume. Playing kind of a hybrid slot role, safety primary slot corner for the Raiders has led to a ton of tackling opportunities. He actually is the best last year. PFF has this tackles over expected metric. He was the best tackling corner in the league last year.

He's probably going to get dog walked by Keenan Allen in the slot, give up a ton of opportunities. And we know in general, like corners, safeties against the Chargers have been producing massive numbers so far this season because they're throwing so much. It's very rare to see a team that is getting more tackles from their secondary than their linebackers, but it's double against the Chargers through three weeks, which is insane. So we had Hobbs with eight and nine tackles in

the two meetings against the Chargers last season. He's already got a 12 tackle game on the board early this season. I think at least six in every game. I think we probably see six and a half on the line for Nate Hobbs here, not currently out. So still waiting for that one. But Nate Hobbs for the Raiders. It's going to be a play for us. The other one I'm going to give you guys this week is Kyser White, the linebacker for the Cardinals. We're going to look for this one. Playing every down for the Cardinals.

Great spots pile up. Tackles as a two-touchdown dog against the Niners. 14 tackles last week against Dallas. I think he's probably going to open at like seven and a half, maybe a juiced eight and a half, which is fantastic. We'll take that. We've seen at least one linebacker against the Niners get nine tackles in every game so far this season. The Giants had two last week. Last season, the Niners had 23.5 tackles per game against them with the linebacker position to the highest rate in the league. And again, game script, just kind of the way that they operate.

If you think just where the Niners play and win, it is often where the linebacker hangs out. So we're going to get a lot here. And then we also have a scorekeeper bump. Last season, visiting teams averaged 27.2 assists per game in San Francisco. It's 5.6 more than the league average. So there's a lot of good things here on white side. Ladders are a little harder when you get up to the top here where we get

guys in like the seven and a half, eight and a half range. Cause you don't really have that high to go, but this could be a really high production game from Kaiser white on the Cardinals. So I'll write those two down, wait for those to come out. Those will probably be plays depending on the number and price for our

subscribers. But yeah, having like 10 to 12 every week, we're going to turn up the heats here as we get going, get more information, more data, get smarter. We're actually maybe even going to pivot to solo tackles a little bit this week too. We're working on some modeling there

for subscribers this week as just an alternative way to get in when we don't like the price or we don't like the number. I wanted to kind of price that out for us too. So yeah, continue to evolve finding more ways to get down and find edges uh to take on these books so uh get in the tackle streets get a sub and uh come hang out with us love it love it i mean absolute fire tackle props uh the only thing

that i basically blindly tail ever i don't i don't blindly tail basically anyone about anything gambling i don't know consider it a flaw but it's just you know so that's the only thing that i tail so there you go i'll tell you but you typically that's you and i talked about it beforehand uh right like you know we like a play so that's yeah it's uh we're spending so much time doing this research it's very hard for us to like come to a play without on our own this is obviously a very different piece in terms of what we're doing here with the tackles. Yeah. I, before we dive into listener questions here, I will have a situation that I want to talk to you guys about the, with the chiefs and jets game

here, because I like have been racking my brain about how to attack this game for the longest time. And I'm not really sure how to do it. So the jets defense obviously have two really good outside corners. DJ Reed, sauce, Garner. Fantastic. The chiefs offense normally like rotates a little bit on the outside. So Justin Watson plays a ton on the outside. MVS plays a ton on the outside, but I don't necessarily love betting unders like, cause they're over unders are really low against like this, uh, you know, with the chiefs, even though the match was really good. So like we have to find a way to attack the middle of the field. So is this like going to be a blow up Kelsey game? Are we getting more Rishi rice? Are we getting more sky more?

Because one of these guys is going to go off. CD lamb had 11 catches for 143 yards here. Just like basically eating the middle of the field alive against his jets team where like, yeah. And also another interesting note, the jets have not allowed a single quarterback to throw for more than 275 passing yards since the beginning of last season.

Patrick Mahomes' passing line is exactly at 275, but I don't want to bet the under because it's Patrick Mahomes and because he has Travis Kelsey and all these guys we need over the middle. So do you guys have any thoughts about this? Because it's literally, I've been going through all these scenarios you can tell in my head about what to do, but I just can't settle on something.

I've predicted that this game's not happening yet. I don't have to do anything yet. You know what I mean? Like that's my plan. And then Sunday at 6.30, 7 o'clock, that's when I'll like just force myself to do something. Because no, all the reasons you said, like I don't know what to do like i don't know that the

jets can move the ball so does that mean unders but then it's mahomes so like it's yeah that game's a mess yeah the rashid rice stuff is interesting to me i want to look into it a little bit more i'm not sure if it was garbage time stuff because i mean that game was almost garbage time at the end of the first quarter let's be honest but like pretty soon he was playing he played more in the early in the like first three quarters he played like i think ran the fourth most snaps first quarter i think he ran like the fourth most snaps too so it like didn't really matter okay he was playing way like more involved than he was in the previous few weeks yeah because the route rate jumped you know 27 week one 13 week two 51 last

week so not typically a number that we're targeting but to your point like it's really hard because these guys are all like you know sub 60 subs you know 55 you know route participation which is kind of tough to really hone in on so it's like kelsey you always feel safe about that but um yeah it's it's not it's not super comfortable i like what you did last week with justin watson that worked out pretty well in terms of like the big plays you laddered some of uh some of watson's stuff which was very surprised when it first happened but again uh you know like you said it only takes one with a guy like that who's running you know deep targets so yeah i don't know rice would be my lean we did see more

early justin r Ross as well. Again, like not big numbers in terms of route participation for him. He did see him at least in the first quarter. So that hasn't been the case so far for him. So maybe there's something there, but all pretty, pretty thin unless we got some sort of information like, you know, Sky Moore is behind Rice or something like that. Yeah.

Kelsey 71 would probably be my favorite look if I had to play something. Because, I mean, it's a little bit lower than his normal lines, you know, Sky Moore is behind rice or something like that. Yeah. Kelsey 71 would probably be my favorite look if I had to play something. Cause I mean, it's a little bit lower than his normal lines, you know, cause he's just still coming back from injury, like still working up his, like ramping up his usage there. Plus now he's dating Taylor Swift.

So, you know, they're going to show that probably more often than the jets offense. Wait, what what's going on? Yeah. I mean, breaking news.

If you guys didn't see it, the a hundred times on twitter or on television yesterday uh travis kelsey has a girlfriend i didn't hear any of that apparently she's famous not sure though did he meet her on that dating show he did years ago i don't know it's what's funny though so i went went to like a vegas party or whatever and it was like gronk and kelsey were there and stuff like that and i mean mean, Kelsey is an absolute animal. This guy is like, you know,

ripping shots, bouncing around on stage. And I think of Taylor Swift. I'm like, man, this is either. She parties a lot more than we know, or,

you know, he's like calmed way down. So, uh, I don't know. I thought that was funny though. He's an interesting guy. Yeah.

It's going to be, uh, it's going to be a lot of Taylor Swift on the show. No, Sunday football. So you guys want a same-game parlay $10 to get $9,600? I mean, it sounds like a good way to wind up and have my Sunday go. So let's hear it. It's based off what you said, Connor, with your Dolphin Bills take.

But if you did, Stephon Diggs, 100+, Tyreek Hill, 100+, Jalen Waddell, 70+, Mostert, 60+, James Cook, 70+, Tua, 300+, Josh Allen, 300+, and over 59 and a half, that 10 bucks would pay $9,600 in $6. I mean, I'm betting it just for the brand. I'm just saying it's not that crazy. Because if you got to 60 points, it has to be a wild shootout. One of those DFS slips where you could have just had just that game and just crushed everybody. You know what I mean?

Just with another defense from another game. One of those. You know what I mean? But look at that slip. That doesn't look like that ridiculous. Again, if it does go over 60. You know what I mean? So that's the one you put on top and say, Hey, if this happens,

then all this would fall in place. Does that make sense? So that's what, that's the way I think about it. When I build those, I get one thing and then I just base everything off that. But then you start going down the line in this game and you're like, damn, I could have like nine legs or eight legs at least. And it's not really that wild. That's the thing with miami is that it's kind of narrow in terms of how they get it done right like even last week it wasn't a bunch of

like braxton barrios and river craycraft and uh duran smith like that's not what happened craycraft too yeah did you see that like i saw people like i saw his name popping up i was like i don't know you know what i mean like i think just tyree kill and and the running was tyree kill the running backs yeah they got it done so yeah i mean i'll be honest it's just it's not a wild in terms of like i mean it's seven or eight legs and uh it involves us getting to 60 points it's not like so like nine legs okay but but whenever you hear him you're like you know what like all that could happen like that's not like that ridiculous like i'm gonna play it i actually just did so they're sad yeah i have to play now i don't see why that i mean like why that would be that ridiculous you

know what i mean you know how you see some of those online after they hit and you're like that guy probably lost a million dollars before this hit. You know what I mean? But there's no rhyme or reason. But that one, when you look at it, you're like, yeah, I mean, you probably got lucky to hit that. But at the same time, you're in a position to get lucky. It's all in the bills. My favorite tickets, though, are the Millie Makers.

You bet like whatever 50 100 bucks and it's like a milli maker ticket you know whereas like you probably have better odds of hitting that same game parlay of 50 to win a million bucks than you do of uh you know actually winning the milli maker oh a thousand percent the draft kings or fanduel thing yes well no a lot of times too though it's like four legs and i i look i don't know how you're getting there it has to be like this guy scored three touchdowns. He's like, this is ridiculous. I mean, could it happen?

Yeah, but I don't know. I mean, there's no rhyme or reason for any of it. I'm still just sad that my government bond parlay fell short last week. I found $300 in government bonds, and my wife was like, oh, we should keep it. It's awesome. It's cool. And I was like, oh, we should keep it. You know, it's awesome. It's cool. And I was like, Oh no,

we're putting this on a parlay, you know? And she, she pushed back. So I tweeted that out. And then, uh, you know,

I ended up hit the Tyreek leg one yard short on Justin Jefferson. And then Calvin Ridley got like injured and then sucked. So that's not good. But yeah, I mean, she can't, you know, it sounds like Joe Biden knows me 300.

That's all I'm saying. She cannot blame you for that. No. But both of these teams getting to the 30s, we're probably home. Got to do it at this point for the brands you have to have. You can't sit here and talk about it being. Getting to the 30s. Yeah, no, you're right.

You can't say it's not that crazy and then be like, yeah, I won't put $10 on that. Because then it is that crazy because you wouldn't put $10 on it. Yeah. No, I'm in. I just locked it in. I'm going to post it very soon too. Post on Twitter?

Yes. I mean, I think the people need to see this. Add slop rules, people. I mean, I think the people need to see this. Ad slop rules, people. Let's track the code. I like it. Well, Connor did, really. Connor's the one that got that ball moving. He got me to open up FanDuel and go into the lines.

You know what I mean? Just kind of looking around and start clicking. Before you know it, you're like, you know what? I think I just won $10,000. It's not good because- I'm not going to give Conor any of the money, but I will give him all the credit. How about that?

Like, I'll keep the cash. You get all the credit. No, cloud is currency right now. So that's totally fine. Conor is more fine with that than you believe. It's great because you're already firing off $10 to win 10 grand. And I think you're stone cold sober at this point

so uh you know your saturday night's gonna be a roller coaster yeah you wait till yeah you wait till i wake up in the morning if that's the jumping off point like whoa yeah we're gonna be hitting river uh braxton barrios alt overs you know thrown in there by the end so well no those are in the um those are in those like $50 to win a million tickets. Like, Berrios over $150 plus receiving. You're just like, what is this? An alt over that I want that hasn't come out, which is not – I think we're going to get it.

There's a lot of local grumbles in the Denver media about Marvin Mims. Oh, really? Marvin Mims changing a role change coming. So I don't know if like I was considering, is this at the hands of like, I mean, it was a couple of bad fumbles from Sutton last week. So like, is it in place of Sutton? Is it in place of Judy?

Is it just, but there's a lot of talk of there's gonna be more Marvin Mims involved this week. Marvin Mims, longest reception. Marvin Mims over whatever his receiving yard comes out at. Alt numbers on Marvin Mims. He's got the Bears, right? He's got the Bears, too. Pretty soft landing spot.

I bet Marvin Mims' most rookie receiving yards on FanDuel, it's 16-1. He already is the third most or fourth most, I think at this point. And all the only guys ahead of him are like Addison and then Puka, but Cooper Cup comes back. So, I mean, like Mims plays a bigger role. Also, the Broncos were going to trade Sudden or Judy before the season and then didn't do it. But now that they suck, I mean, they're definitely going to trade one of them before the trade deadline.

So, I think Mims could have like a, a wild second half of the season too. So. Yeah. Like that. So me, I don't know. I bet it yesterday before the game,

I got to see, I mean, the limits on it was like 50 bucks or something like that for me. So I didn't push it anywhere, but I'll definitely check and see if we can still bet it now, because I think that's a fun look. Yeah. I need more fun ones for the second half.

I got a couple college, you know what I mean, like team totals, like Texas to go to the playoffs. But I have really nothing NFL-wise just because you ruined my brain with that. It's all under. It's like I won't even consider an over. It's because of you, Connor, with your articles every single time. It's like, yeah, I'm an idiot for betting these overs because I'm basically betting if the guy's going to get hurt or not.

Like you're sitting there handicapping it. You know what I mean? Like you're like, oh, well, yeah, the yards and the game. You're like, no, you're literally betting this guy's not going to get hurt. And it's like, yeah, I'm done with that. So now I'm betting guys too get hurt. Now I don't want to do that. So it's like this sucks.

I hate the market. I will jump into the uh some of the questions here uh brian wanting to know about russell wilson which we're talking about here passing yard prop over 239 and a half chicago yeah the back end is beat up it's it's beat up when they're all in the lineup too um so yeah i mean it's kind of parlaying off of the marvin mims thing we were saying here. I probably want to do Mims instead of, like, dragging the entire ship to Russell Wilson. That makes me a little nervous. Connor, what are your thoughts on that one?

I think the Bears are going to win this game. I was going to say that whenever you were doing Mims. I was like, I bet the Bears score at least. You don't need to keep this moving in the offensive direction for both teams yeah yeah i tweeted it out and i've heard a bunch of people say it it's you know like they're they're both just like so bad that i think we're going to see probably actually the bears look okay offensively and if they don't look okay offensively here just you know fire everyone call it a day um you know it's like this is the not the now or never spot here i was considering some dj more props but i don You know, it's like, this is the, not the now or never spot here. I was considering some DJ more props, but I don't know.

It's just like, I don't, I don't want to bet on Justin Fields to throw the ball. Well, yeah, exactly. Jim Bob, shut out.

Jim Bob wants to know about Joe Mixon over three and a half receptions plus one 25. We know they're not going to try to, well, we hope that they're not going to try to well we hope that they're not going to try to run into the teeth of that titans defense we are on the completions on the burrow side connor any thoughts on what we expect from mixon and his involvement in the passing game in terms of getting us there on the burrow play yeah they involved him a little bit more last

week chris evans was a healthy scratch again even though he was supposed to be back so yeah i'd lean over there plus 125 is not a bad look at Burrow's throwing like 45-plus times. Yeah, I mean, he's 58%, 57% route participation the last couple weeks. So, not heavily targeted, but, again, like, you know, that's decent. That's decent for where we want Mixon to be. So, lower efficiency targets. Receiving against the Titans. Yeah, that's top of your head. They're not receptions. They're not tops. I usually look at targets for that. receiving against the Titans.

They're not in receptions. They're not tops. I usually look at targets for that just to see if teams kind of target their backs against them. Yeah, let's see. Doesn't look good. No, they're third to last in running back targets. But maybe they play teams that just don't target the running backs too, so there is that.

That's worth digging into, I guess is all I'm saying. So you might get something really good there or you might have nothing yeah well you know they play the chargers without yeah no it's true right without austin eckler um and then the browns yeah so yeah there's there's probably something there. It's not a bad look. I like the plus 125. That's for sure.

Let's see what we got next. Brian wants to know, do we fire on alt overs on Kittle if Debo Samuel is out? Debo trending poorly here. Slop, any thoughts on San Francisco passing game if we have no Debo Samuel? Isn't Kittle in if uh you just out or something like that isn't that the the way to play that play him i think it's just either

of the other two if one of them either one but it doesn't matter okay yeah i look into that uh i got the top of my head i do not know the only problem is they're kind of a wagon and i hate that offense for that because they could just beat you like like 15 different ways and it's like all right but if sandals isn't there obviously something you know they're gonna have to do something other than that because he's not playing but i i don't know i'm just very scared of the san francisco offense to take one piece of it you almost want to go like quarterback a lot of times but then it's pretty and you don't know if they're going to run the ball and That's a rough team for me.

The issue is we're going to get props that are going to be properly priced because none of them are out right now, and Debo never really had a chance to play, it looks like, because he looks like he's trending out. If you could get a price now in the 50s on Iuke, I would definitely take the over, but we're probably going to get low 60s

because once Debo's out, then we're probably going to get high 40s for Kittle. So, I don't know. Plus, like Leslop said, they can just run the ball the entire game probably. This practice again today, not trending very well there. So Adam wants to know about Adam Thielen. Over four and a half receptions, minus 105, revenge game.

I mean, a lot of revenge games on the slate this week. This one's interesting. We are seeing more Thielen in the slot, which is kind of where he did a lot of revenge games on the slate this week. This one's interesting. We are seeing more Thielen in the slot, which is kind of where he did a lot of his work early in his career. It's not really how he was used last year. They left him out wide a lot, and he was just dusty. Peppered with Andy Dalton. A little nervous to see if that translates here.

Slop with the quarterback change with Bryce Young coming back. Any thoughts on revenge game Thielen? I'm not a Bryce Young guy at all so far. I mean, I know it's only been a couple games, but, I mean, yikes. So it's going to suck if you're right, if you're not a Bryce Young guy and you're right and you take this over because it should hit. This should be the easiest hit of your life. It should be.

But it's not Andy Dalton throwing the ball to him. It's Bryce Young. And I don't know. I'd stay away. I wanted a three and a half still, even though he went nuts last week. But I still wanted the three and a half again to even think about it. So I was out since I saw four and a half. But you could have gold.

Like, you really could. But you're – I don't know. You're playing like with 105 to get it so it's yeah it's kind of a pass for me there's another revenge spot that i really like that's really gross and i don't think you guys are gonna like it very much oh no i think you're talking about i don't think that the patriots are going to drop mac jones back a lot in this football game i think that they are worried about the blitz. I think they're worried about pressure.

Their offensive line is beat up. We saw 19, 19 carries from Zeke last week. Zeke's rushing prop is like 25 and a half. It's really low. Like, Oh, 25 and a half,

25 and a half. This is rushing prop. I always say I'll bet anything. All right, so first I'm thinking Ezekiel Elliott, no. And then it's like, wait, 25 and a half, I might be in. I think that's how you attack the Cowboys. You just run right at them. I really do.

I really think that's the way. Because if you don't, Michael Parsons might kill you. I don't think it's a – it's not a narrative-based take, Connor. It is very much, you know, match-up specific, game specific. It's not that, like – I don't buy for a second the Bills, like, oh, we got to feed Zeke because he's back in Dallas. Like, of any coach, I think he would care the less, you know, least about that. I just think they don't want to just try to have Mac Jones win win that football game for them it's what they did last week against new

york they ran really well um yeah i mean i think you could see it you know another 12 to 14 carries physique it's going to be really hard for him to not he's looked pretty good um it's going to be hard for him to not get there so i thought you you guys wouldn't like it, but you know, Connor, do you have any thoughts in terms of like just the matchup there? I'm hating it less and less. I mean, betting a Zeke over against one of the best defenses in the NFL is gross, but we did just see the Arizona Cardinals, I guess, kind of find like a little bit of a skeleton key in the running game there. I mean, James Connor is dust and had big holes. Like, I mean, there's were gaping, you know, like that was one of those bets. You know, I, I, we talk about all the time. It's like, sometimes I bet I liked about a lot of unders and we saw like within the first five minutes, I was like, Oh, this, this bet is

dust. Like I was like, we're, we're, we're toast here because there was massive holes. The Cowboys were not winning the game. Like everything that I thought was going to happen was wrong. So yeah. I mean, I think the Zeke here is not a bad look. I guess you're quite like, the concern is like, if the Cowboys go up, you're probably toast. If the Patriots don't agree that, you know, like running is the way to go for some reason, which I don't know, you know, maybe they don't, you're probably also toast. So those are my concerns with betting the over with a guy like Zeke. But most scenarios, if he does, if he carries about 10 times, he's obviously getting there, you know seven times, he's probably getting there.

Yeah. No, it's true. Those are definitely – Right now it's 32 and a half, but 40 plus is plus 132. 50 plus is plus 220 if you want to get kind of wild. I don't hate that. All right, so remember the first game of the season, the Giants-Cowboys? The Giants kind of ran a little bit on them.

They lost 40-0 to the point where they were able to. But, I mean, if you look at Barkley, that game, I think he had like 10 carries. It wasn't that bad. They could move the ball on the ground. It's just you're down 40-0 and your quarterback keeps throwing picks. So the running game is kind of out the window i think you might be right and i need something for that for that window i have nothing right now for the four o'clock window and i'm probably gonna have like 10 grand because that whole same game parlay i'm gonna hit at one

if i think maybe you roll the 10 grand on z and just have a day that's just have a day yeah 27 and a half still on draft kings minus 115 and 32 at vandal okay wow so then take back everything i say and is there alts on draft kings because that's where you're doing your alts if you're doing them yeah yeah let's see what actually you gotta do 50 plus there don't don't you they don't do the by 10 no they do a 25 50 75 yeah we'd have to alter yeah what's 50 over there i'm trying i'm trying to get there let's take plus 370 okay okay so what was 50 yeah so plus 370 then instead of plus 220 at vandal yeah I'm kind of in. I'm actually almost all the way in now. I'm telling you, like, they're not going to have Mac try to win this football game. It feels disgusting, dude.

I know. I totally agree. You know what that's one of, though? That's when you don't tell your buddies you got until it hits. You know what I mean? Like, you just never – you don't bring that up before the – yeah, yeah, I took Zeke because you're just gonna get roasted the whole time whenever he comes out there and just runs like seven yards

and they lose 40 to nothing but yeah no i'm with you so i should bet it but not give it to subscribers is what i yeah yeah exactly don't just don't put your name on it until it's over yeah found this ticket on the ground you know it's one of those a bunch of them watch so i know that you know we'll last you uh we'll be quietly cheering for it in the side but we won't tell anyone that we actually have the ticket you know what we could tell the subs but they just don't tell their friends like that's a don't tell your friends that you know if you're gonna be watching this game with your buddies like just save yourself like wait till it hits then say you have it yeah keep it keep it low and then just do it.

There's a really fun analogy that I'm sure you guys both know of, but I'm not going to say it. Yeah, I was thinking the same one. Is it like riding a moped? Something like that. Something like that. All right. That is going to wrap us up for today.

Again, we really appreciate you hanging out with us. Again, while you're here, don't forget to subscribe to the channel, rate, review, comment, all those things go a long way in helping support the free content. We appreciate it very much. Podcast in your feed on Fridays. Find Slop over at Odds Jam on Twitter, at Slop Rules, if you want to get the visual of the

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I'm gonna go live tonight. Actually. Hit the button. Uh, appreciate it. Cap was appreciate everyone in the channel, uh, hanging out with us.

Um, you know, we, we, we definitely appreciate it. It's fun. It's our favorite show. And you know, it doesn't happen without you guys tuning in and watching and hanging out with us um you know we we definitely appreciate it's fun it's our favorite show and you know it doesn't happen without you guys tuning in and watching and hanging out with us and firing questions so get the betting sub get in the discord again that is also our favorite place to hang out on the weekend to uh watch and sweat games you're gonna get all

the official picks that we have coming out four four dot com slash plans get the betting sub uh we are uh really excited about some of the tools that are popping up here in the next couple of days as well that have been slow to roll out, but yeah, trending, trending, trending on the up and up. We'll be back again here on Friday,

next week, Wednesday for the game previews for Connor, myself and high slop. We'll see you next week. Thanks everybody.