Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 4 PROPS | Top Prop Bets, Predictions & Picks

Episode Date: October 1, 2022

Experts Ryan Noonan, Connor Allen & Pat Mayo share their top Week 4 NFL player prop bets. Tail them as they hand out their top picks, highlight the best betting odds & share their expert predictions.Timestamps:0:00 Intro5:11 Connor Bet #1 6:59 Pat Bet #1  9:42 Ryan Bet #1 11:56 Connor Bet #2 14:08 Pat Bet #2 17:03 Ryan Bet #2 20:35 Connor Bet #3 23:17 Pat Bet #325:36 Ryan Bet #327:37 Connor Bet #429:41 Pat Bet #4 36:35 Ryan Bet #4 42:47 Thrive Props44:56 Q+A 1:01:59 PROP TOOL BET OF THE WEEK1:04:57 Outro Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansMove the Line: Prop Drop is sponsored by Thrive Fantasy. Use Promo Code PROPDROP when signing up & you will receive a 100% instant first deposit match up to $250 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3RQQHRuFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Betting on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4BetsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Pat on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ThePMEVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Prop Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TWC40v4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3pQ2tQ14for4 Player Prop Finder 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wxTcQc4for4 Player Prop Odds Comparison Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3AQ5TbK

Hello and welcome to Move the Line Prop Drop Show presented by Thrive Fantasy. I'm Ryan Noonan and we'll be here every week in the space, every Friday, 2 p.m. Eastern, to talk about the best way and the most profitable way to bet on NFL football, and that is player props. If you're hanging out with us on YouTube, subscribe so you don't miss a show. Jump in the chat and let us know what your favorite prop

is for the week. If you're on the fence or something, you want to get our thoughts on it, or you want to harass us on our picks. We'll hopefully get to those as many as we can in the hour that we have at the end of the show. Joining me here as always, Connor Allen. Connor, how are we doing on Friday? Pretty good, man. Week four is finally here. I feel good about where we're at now with getting a little bit of data and our projections a little bit more. We're using adjusted fantasy points allowed now that's kind of mixed in. So I think a big upgrade for our rankings and projections. So

feeling good. Also joining us in the space every week the man behind the mayo media network and the pat mayo experience pat mayo how we doing today i'm good i i hurt my right leg so i've been doing like physiotherapy for like my entire right side of my body turns out like when you tear your calf multiple times, like your right hamstring weak, right? Glute super weak. And it's horrible. Glute and leg exercises are the absolute nut low. How did you tear your calf multiple times running? Oh yeah. No good. I'm like the least flexible person ever too. So like, I feel like even I'm trying to like doing any yoga or stretching, like these hammies and glutes are rough. I can't

imagine having like, cause it all links. Like when you jack up the calf, it's all going to be bad news. So no thanks. Did you just re-aggravate it recently? Yeah. I tore it again, like two and a half months ago and just the worst because you know, it's football season. I got to run, stay slim. And now I got to find like alternative methods of cardio. And I mean, running's bad enough. The other ones are way worse. Jeez. Who's going to, you know, drink your athletic greens

and eat your magic spoon and smoke some cigs and you don't even need any real food. That's good. Yeah, I can polish down some vodka with it. Very low cow. And now I'm off to the races. You don't even need any real food. That's good. Yeah. I can polish down some vodka with it. Very low cow. And now I'm off to the races. You don't have a vodka deal though. I can't,

I can't help you tee up a vodka deal. Well, maybe someone's watching who has a vodka company who wants to sponsor the show and I'm good to go. I'll drink it on air. Who cares? At the PME on Twitter. If you need to jump in his DMS there,

any vodka companies, but a reminder that we have two episodes, a move line each week, both available to stream live here on YouTube, also available in podcast form as well, wherever you consume podcasts. In addition to this prop drop, we also have our game previews on Thursday nights. We go live there 7 p.m. Eastern, leading into Thursday night football.

Connor, John Daigle, and myself. Last night's show is in the books there. You can check that out. We have nine bets in there for you for week four. All right, before we jump into our props for this week, I want to tell you about our friends over at Thrive Fantasy, another great opportunity at Thrive to make some money. If you're not familiar with Thrive, it's a daily fantasy sports

and esports app for player props. Game is pretty simple. They have 20 props listed. Choose your favorite 10 to build a lineup. Each prop is assigned a fantasy value for both the over and under based on how likely it is to hit. You hit the most props, accumulate the most points, and you can win a share of the prize pool. They have a $25 GBP again this week. There are 5,500 spots. And as of about an hour ago, there are less than 150 people in that tournament. So they are paying out the top 1,100 spots. And right now, you basically are in and you're going to make a couple thousand dollars just by signing up this week. So it always gets close to filling or closer to filling.

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contest and we'll talk about some of our favorite Thrive props later in the show. All right, week four, live lines available for you to bet right now. No stale lines. Our goal is to do our best to make sure you can get the same line or price or as close as possible. Connor, you can get us kicked off here with your first prop for week four. Yeah. My first prop for week four is Nico Collins. I'm taking under three and a half receptions. You're able to find this a plus money at different shops. I like it up to minus 115. I think that that is fine as well. Still just looking at kind of his usage here has only seen two, four, and then two receptions in three games. And that's on three, nine and four targets. I mean, I think there's a good chance here against the chargers. He only sees three to four targets. I know that they're a little bit banged up defensively, but I still

think that with how Davis Mills has played, which is terribly, you know, I think that they're a little bit banged up defensively, but I still think that with how Davis Mills has played, which is terribly, you know, I think that there's no reason this should be plus money. And even then, I think that this should probably be closer to two and a half than a three and a half. So I lean under here.

I like that as a play at three and a half. Pat, any thoughts on that fading? What's going on in that Texans passing games? Probably a pretty easy spot. Yeah, I really have no feeling on this. I was not thinking Nico Collins out of the gate.

I'm not going to lie to you when it comes down to it. I pay so little attention to what the Texans are doing outside of Cooks and Pierce that, if you got to lean on this one, I mean, that sounds right. That sounds like a lot for Nico Collins. And what I expect this game to be, I think this is like a 17 10 17 14 type game so that actually tracks for me so yeah i like it yeah i think it pops out pretty well for us too you just

had a spike week um in week two but yeah i mean when you're looking at you know sub 75 percent route run like you need some splash plays there so yeah i might like that look at all considered hugging it in our discord uh which is something that we do to basically show that we're both on it as a, you know, confirmation bias, you know, helps the subs there. So good luck there.

It's a Connor Allen play for sure. You know, hitching yourself to unders that are tied to bad quarterbacks, probably a pretty easy, easy spot to be. Pat, first one for you, buddy.

First one for me, I'm going to go to the London game, shockingly enough. It's Justin Jefferson rebound week. We have his yardage total down about, geez, 10 yards from where it was two weeks ago. And he's been pressed up against two pretty good corners the last two weeks. And you might say, hey, Marshawn Lattimore, he's going to take care of Justin Jefferson. I have always found that Marshawn Lattimore is one who matches up well on big-bodied physical, which I really find surprising. Something that coming into the year, I would have expected them to have fantastic pass rush.

You're probably going to see a lot of zone coverage, weirdly enough, coming from the Saints this week over in London. And obviously we know what their offense is looking like at the moment. They have everyone out. That's not great. So maybe this flips into a game where they would try to run the ball a ton. It's still very difficult to run on the New Orleans Saints. So I think this is a get-right spot for Jefferson.

I think he goes absolutely ham in this game. And it's down to 84.5, minus 110 at DraftKings Sportsbook. So sometimes, you know, I try to find the biggest losers on the board, try to bet an under over, just trying to get one catch out of them. Not in this one. This really feels like a seven for 135 and two touchdowns type game for Justin Jefferson. So I'll take the one that I like the best and it's the over 84 and a half receiving prop. We got him in 96. We talked about this actually in our discord earlier in the week when this one first pops, because these sunday morning games pop earlier than others and did some digging too

like latimore is actually not even shadowing that much either so like 40 percent um shadow rate so far this season so he probably sees uh you know more jefferson than normal here but i kind of agree with pat like he is someone who's profiled better against bigger body receivers even last week he actually when he shadowed against carolina it was robbie more than it was dj moore so maybe that's something that they shadow uh thielen here with latimore and maybe try to do some bracket coverage with with justin jefferson against the the lesser of the guys there connor any thoughts on uh j No, I think you guys brought up some good points, but I do think that you could also hit some alts here, like some sprinkles on like 100 plus, 110 plus,

like 120 plus money here, because he's going to blow up one of these weeks. And as you mentioned, it's not like he's going to see a ton of Lattimore. I think that this could be a good spot for him to actually just go off in a spot where it seems like his price is coming down, as you mentioned at the top.

Yeah, I like that look. All right, number one for me, Clyde Edwards-Hilaire, under 9.5 carries. Hit this at minus 110 on DraftKings. It's moved to minus 120 within the last half an hour or so. Still think it's a fair play there. Three weeks, and he has not topped eight carries in a game, and he's coming off of a seven-carry, zero-yard performance against the Colts.

And more importantly, he lost base down work last week too, which is really kind of his bread and butter. So if he's going to be losing base snaps to Jarek McKinnon and even Isaiah Pacheco, who got a bunch of carries in week one, but that was when that game was all baked away. Last week was obviously not. I mean, they lost on the road. That game was in what you would consider neutral script all game, and Pacheco finally got in there too. So I just think this is a rough spot. They obviously are not very bullish in him long-term, which is why we had

kind of the drumbeat on Pacheco all offseason. They re-signed McKinnon, and if McKinnon is going to start to supplement him, not just on passing downs, but on base work too, not enough carries against a really stout Tampa Bay front. I don't expect him to get this hot hand where they're going to start to pound him here. So I think they're going to have to pass to move the ball. I actually kind of like the spot for Tampa. So again, if it's going to be negative game script as well,

I just kind of like the spot and banging under on CEH. Connor, I know you're on it too. Pat, I'd love to get your thoughts. Yeah, I was actually thinking about under three receptions as well. I just, he's terrible. Stop using him. And I think they're going to find that out this week. Love that too. Again, like he struggled against Indy and Indy's good. Tampa's good too. So I just, I can't see a scenario where they're all of a sudden going to be like, all right, we're going to pile,

even if they get up, right. If it's a pro Kansas city script, Connor, we're still not going to see massive workload for CEH. Yeah. I mean, we were eyeing under 35 and a half rushing yards,

but that's just so low that like, I mean, some fluke play where he ends up breaking one can, can bust that. But I just don't see him getting 10 plus carries in this spot. I think it's almost kind of more similar to what we saw from Chase Edmonds last night, where in an uncertain situation where he hasn't been playing

that well, saw 27% of the snaps last night. I mean, we could see CEH start to see his snaps being decreased too, because, again, went seven carries for zero yards against a tough matchup, but still, they might be starting to try some other stuff out pretty soon. Back to you, buddy. Pick number two.

Yeah. My second pick is Josh Jacobs. I'm taking the under here on two and a half receptions. I know that he just had a great game, but that was in a big, a different script here. They were passing basically the entire game, car attempted 44 passes, and that led to Jacobs being on the field for a lot more pass plays than normal. Still, despite that, only played on 14.3% of the team's third down. So he's still not the clear pass catching back. He's just was using that sense because they were passing basically the entire game. Now, I like the Broncos to beat the Raiders here, but that's a little bit contrarian. The Raiders right now, two and a half point favorites. I think that here, Jacobs only seeing one target in each of the first two games favorites uh i think that here jacob's only seeing one target

in each of the first two games and i think that's well within his range of outcomes here he's probably in the one two or three target range barring the raiders just going massively pass heavy here so he did run more routes but i think that that was more of a result of the raiders having to pass more on early down so i still like this under here as long as the broncos don't jump out to like a 14 or 17-0 lead and force the Raiders to pass basically every play. Yeah, I still saw Brandon Bolden basically 93% of the long down and distance snaps. So yeah, we saw a decent workload in the passing game from Jacobs on first and second down.

So Pat, any thoughts on this one? Fade Jacobs always is usually my goal with anything. You want him to be so much better than he is. And you want this where it's like, oh, he's out there so much. This is the role that he should have. It's like, no, he doesn't have that. And you mentioned the key name, like Brandon Bolden is healthy. And if they have to pass in this spot, and I don't think they want to pass all that much

to tell you the truth against the Broncos. I mean, not that they have a poor run defense. They have an excellent pass defense just kind of keep it on the ground and let jacobs get his two yards per carry and that'll be their game plan my only concern too is i'm kind of bullish on denver in this spot especially if we do see today if hunter uh renfro is ruled out but again maybe that ends up signaling even more brandon bolin even amir Abdullah, who didn't see a snap last week, but 21% of the snaps in week two. I think Pat's motto of just taking a hard line

of always fading Josh Jacobs is probably a plus EV long-term. Pat, how about number two for you, bud? Number two for me is the biggest discrepancy I have between my projections and what the actual over-under is in terms of yardage this week, it's over Derrick Henry, 70 and a half rushing yards against the Colts. I feel like this is

being baked in now. Yes, the Colts have a great run defense. They had a great run defense last year as well. And Henry almost still got to this number in the game he got hurt in against the Colts because all they do when Tennessee has had a ton of success against Indianapolis, they turn around, they hand it to Derrick Henry. You'll get this past five games against the Colts, 149, 103, 178, 113. But the carries 28, 28, 27, 26. This is their game plan to beat this team, a team that they've had a lot of success with. Obviously, Derrick Henry looked a lot better last week.

And the fact that the Colts are just stymied the Chiefs on the ground, that's great and everything. But stopping Derrick Henry is not like stopping Clyde Edwards-Alaire and Isaiah Pacheco and Jarek McKinnon. This one just seems way off to me by a good 38, 35 yards. So strong over on Derrick Henry. Yeah, we've talked about this a lot, Connor. I know our process is similar. We're going through some of the stuff on Monday and Tuesday yards so strong over on derrick henry yeah we talked about this a lot connor like you know i

know our process is similar we're going through some of the stuff on monday and tuesday and you know trying to break down some of these games i know you know i'll highlight and make some some lists and some thoughts around what my initial leans are going to be and i had derrick henry under for sure as a big lean and then the 71 and a half came out and it was like holy shit it's like 20 yards lower than anything he's been posted at all season he's been like 85 90 yards in the first three weeks so like they're really baking in the colts run defense here and probably too much like we joked like i didn't make the play but i said now this is like a henry over feels like a great play and our projections probably align similar to what Pat's are there, way over this number.

And this is a limited passing game. We know they're like Pat listed all those carry numbers. I don't really know how they get away from handing in the ball a ton, even if it's not efficient work. 71, 70, it's just not a lot, Connor. Yeah, I mean, we should pencil him in for around 20 carries. I mean, I don't know what you have projected for pat but like he's going to be getting 20 carries if they want to win and it would take him just really really struggling to not get to 71 so

i just this is the lowest eric henry number that i've seen in recent memory i mean i don't even know three years or so at least yeah i haven't projected 22 carries so 22 carries at three and a half yards per carry you still have like 10 yards to work with yeah it's it's shocking to see them adjust that much especially off of a guy's baseline and you know again and not knowing everything that's fed into making the prop but you know historical success against the team all those things we're at 21 and a half uh for 85.7 yards on on derrick henry so yeah we're leaning there too uh number two for me let me see what i got here uh we're going daniel jones over 31 and a half rushing yards this is minus 110 on draft kings uh attacking russian quarterbacks against really man

heavy defenses i think is a plus EV proposition, and I don't think it's necessarily accounted for by bookmakers. And it's been pretty clear if you look at how it's played out so far this season for Daniel Jones, who's running a ton. They talked about it this season in the offseason, like they wanted to use his legs. He's a pretty limited passer from the pocket, and getting him outside the pocket to run and create plays makes a lot of sense.

Six carries, ten carries, and nine carries in the first three games. So the attempts are there. Against the Tennessee Titans in week one, who only played six snaps of man all game, he went for six for 25. Carolina barely plays any man. Played two snaps of man in week two. A lot of attempts, attempts 10 carries but just 21 yards for daniel jones last week against dallas who played 18 snaps of man jones went for nine

carries and 79 yards the bears play man at the league's third highest rate it's kind of the handicap for me here i think jones can break a couple but again if he's going to be you know kind of flirting with eight to ten carries here kind of like the for me here. I think Jones can break a couple, but again, if he's going to be, you know, kind of flirting with eight to 10 carries here, kind of like the spot, especially with the limited pass catcher. So DJ over 31 and a half for me. What do you think, Pat? I was looking at his passing attempts over as well. I believe it's at 27 and a half right now, and I haven't projected it way more than that. The issue is when I think about the projections, I think I would lean more towards the rushing like you do solely because of the opponent that they're facing when they're only going to face max 20 pass attempts. And you're probably I mean, you want to throw the ball, but you're probably safer running the ball with Barkley and yourself just to limit the mistakes.

This feels like a really quick game to me. And in that circumstance, I'm always going to go towards the rushing rather than the passing if i do want to take an over yeah it looks like it moved to 32 and a half in most spots and i'd still play that conor i know we've talked about it any uh dj thoughts uh man i i just keep going back and forth with the rushing stuff like rushing quarterback overs i think that we talked about it earlier i like the alts for this verse just like the regular 32 and a half getting plus money i know i'm a little bit of a sucker there for that, but I just think it's super volatile. Like he breaks, all it takes is one or two and he's way over this number, but you know, like how much volume do we expect?

You know, I don't know. I keep going back and forth. I like it. I lean over for sure. Especially for all the points you laid out. I just think I'd probably prefer to lean into a little bit more of the, you know, higher variance plays at plus money. Well, if you want higher variance, you can take a same game parlay because we like Justin Jefferson or we like Justin Fields to run a crap ton in this game too, because the Giants

also play a ton of man defense, I think sixth or seventh in the league. So we know that they want to run the football and they cannot pass the ball. They refuse to even do so. So if you want to take connor's side get some alts if you want to get both of these guys to top 50 yards on the ground that's nine to one on draft kings when we said a little same game parlay i'll sprinkle that i have no problem with that to pat's point is one of those games are like 2 30 eastern or central time this game's gonna be over it's gonna be the first game that's just, it's done.

You're like the bears giants is over. It's like, yeah, they just all ran the ball every single time. And you know, tick, tick, tick.

And there we go. So, uh, all right. Number, uh, number or back to you, Connor,

right for a number three, staying in the same game as I was last time. I'm going to go with Derek Carr under 270 passing yards here. Uh, for me, this just struck me as like way too high compared to, you know, what it should be here.

Raiders so far have played against Cardinals, who ranked 30th in passing DVOA. Titans, who ranked 26th in passing DVOA. And Chargers, who ranked 20th right now. Despite playing those teams,

he's only averaged 283 passing yards. Broncos so far have been really strong, again, against weak opponents, but 175, 195, and 211 passing yards. Right now, fourth in DVOA, which adjusts for opponent as well. Broncos games so far also have been really slow-paced, averaging the fifth fewest combined plays. Raiders are playing right now at the eighth slowest pace.

As we mentioned earlier, I think that they actually probably skew a little bit even more runny-heavy here than pass-heavy i don't think that either team or at least i don't think that the raiders have a ton of success offensively so we haven't projected for around 260 uh i like under here 270 i think that the floor here is super low like in like the 215 220 range if uh unless things get out of hand but again i expect this to be kind of a close lower scoring game here at least for the raiders yeah pat what do you think here i love this and i think that people are really underrating the broncos in general i agreed with you earlier like i like the plus two and a half i like them to win that game and it's mainly because when you take offense defense offense defense on both sides of

the ball like clearly the best thing in this game is the broncos defense yeah the raiders offense might be better right now, at least than what Denver looks like. That's closer to a wash than lining it up on the other end. And just with how weak the Raiders offensive line is so far, and now the pass rush that the Broncos are generating, like, I just feel like they want to run the ball. That's their best path in this game to creating an advantage is if the Denver is going to blitz or bring this, just bring the house at you just run it with Josh Jacobs that's fine kill the clock a bit don't let Derek

Carr make any mistakes don't let him take any hits and with the way that their corners have been playing like those deep shots just aren't going to be there so Carr might dink and dunk you to death but getting over that number is going to be tough and harder to dink and dunk to if run throws out Patrick Sertain has been awesome. They're actually, I think like second in DVOA defensively against wide receiver ones. So I don't expect him to shut down Devontae Adams, but could be a quieter Adams day too. And again, they obviously need him. There's a squeaky wheel narrative there where you think maybe he's going to have a bounce

back game because it's been quiet for two. I'm dying for a Raiders team total to get to 24 so I can hit the under on that. It's a juiced 23 and a half everywhere. We're like getting there a little bit maybe. So I would love to take a Raiders under 24 and this kind of aligns perfectly with that. So good luck.

Pat, how about number two or three for you, buddy? Number three for me is actually in the Colts and Henry on ones. I mean, you just same game parlay these ones together. You go Henry over 70 and a half rushing yards. Then you take a look at the other side of the ball. And Michael Pittman, 69 and a half is what he's coming in at right now. And I just, again, that's another one that's just a huge discrepancy for me in terms of what I have him projected out for,

what he normally produces on a week to week basis. That it just, it struck me as super odd that it would be so low. in terms of what I have him projected out for, what he normally produces on a week-to-week basis, that it just struck me as super odd that it would be so low. I haven't projected that around 85 yards this week, almost seven catches. Like, who else are the Colts throwing to? Granted, they're three-and-a-half-point favorites. I don't think they should be.

I think this game is just kind of back and forth the entire way. Yeah, if Henry runs the ball 24 times, it shrinks the game downinks the game down but when you own like 35 of a team's reception tree and the share of targets that are coming from matt ryan even if he only throws the ball 28 times it's pretty easy sprint to this number i mean it doesn't even take a big one to happen this is just all dink and dunks type stuff on the seven six seven eight catches the pitman's gonna get you throw in like a 35 yarder in the mix. It's an easy over. Confirmation bias, Connor. I gave this out to your subscribers, 66 and a half. I keep climbing because I'm with you. Like our numbers are way up in the mid eighties as well. Like there's just no one else, right? It's just a bunch of Jags and Michael Pittman and Christian Fulton's probably out for Tennessee they are 31st against

wide receiver one so far this year 32nd against my receiver twos however you want to classify they're really bad against pass catchers and it's such a narrow target tree as Pat said for the Colts all in on Pittman what do you think Connor yeah I mean we saw it play out without Pittman before like it's just complete disaster like he is the focal point and the only guy in their offense who can get open basically like he that's it and so without him i mean the passing game sputtered uh you know i i think that he he continues to crush i mean we were bullish on the preseason i think that this is just it's all been confirmation bias since then with the missed game and then every other game playing well so yeah i

like the over here as well yeah slid right back into the normal workload. You know, nothing that would make you think like, oh, he was limited coming back after what he missing week two. Nope, right back in 98% of the snaps. He's an alpha, so he'll crush. Super sexy one for me here. Number three, I'm going to go Zach Ertz over four and a half receptions.

This is plus money, plus 105 on DraftKings. We hit this successfully last week. Same song and dance, really. The only matchup in the path to targets, I think, has improved. You have A.J. Green out. Andy Isabella, he is going to step in. He'll be in there in three receiver sets. And throughout his career, there's been a lot of hope for Andy Isabella,

but he's just not proven to be a guy that's been a lot of hope for Andy Isabella but he's just not proven to be a guy that's been a target earner and since returning after you know being a little bit limited in week one Ertz is running around on 90% of Kyler's drop back uh 20% target share like as I mentioned earlier when we were talking about Daniel Jones Carolina basically plays exclusively zone which is a really nice spot for a tight end. Actually really bad against tight ends so far this season as well. I just think Ertz gets peppered with really low A-dot targets. Would never chase a yardage over on Ertz. But plus money at four and a half receptions is a look I'm very comfortable in this matchup.

So give me Ertz over four and a half. What do you think, Pat? I like it. I like everything Ertz. Touchdown score Ertz. Just when you think about the way that Carolina is constructed to stop you is they're going to take away your best receiving threats. Like it's it's hurts or dorks really for me in this game. It just feels like I know you say they don't play a ton of man coverage, but they do bracket towards certain players and they can leave J.C.

Horn up on Marquise Brown for and shade his side of the field as long as they want. Just take him out of the game what do you got left well you have Rondell Moore who might play you have Isabella you have Eno Benjamin maybe catching passes maybe they'll throw it to James Connor but realistically it's Dortch and it's Ertz in between them they're probably gonna have like 25 targets the size of a JV basketball team too like everyone's like five six and under it's a very interesting lineup so all right we made it around three we got one more to go if you're hanging out with us uh jump in the chat let us know your thoughts anything you're considering this week we will get to anything

that we have time at the end uh connor last one for you yeah my last one that it's played a little bit close to the chest here but i like jk dobb. I like him to go under his rushing total right now. It's still at 38 and a half. I mean, so if we look at the last game, he's coming back from, you know, an ACL, LCL, uh, heading into the game, Harbaugh basically said, let's see how it goes. You know, we'll roll with the hot hand. So if we look at how that game went, Dobbins rushed the ball the first four times before justice Hill got involved at all. The second half, the first drive Dobbins and Hill like rotated carries a one for Dobbins, the first drive, Dobbins and Hill rotated carries. One for Dobbins, two for Hill, one for Dobbins. Then from there on out, Justice Hill started and played the entirety of the next four drives of the second half. I mean, this game was still close.

It's not like it was out of hand at the time. And then Dobbins didn't see his next touch until 444 left in the game. He popped up on the injury report with a chest injury. He was a full participant, so it looks like he's fine. But now he faces the Bills run defense, seventh and run DEPA per play, first explosive run rate allowed, despite multiple absences on the defensive line. Last week, held Raheem Moser and Chase Edmonds to combine 32 yards on 14 carries. So, I mean, there's workload concerns, some matchup concerns, efficiency concerns. I think the under here is the play. I think the only way

this loses if you bust a long one or some for some reason decide to give him like 10 plus carries but i mean justice hill just straight up one for one outplayed him last week uh coming off a torn achilles so i'm willing to fade dobbins in this spot yeah i'm with you 60 okay just it can we even guarantee him five touches in this game right it feels like it feels like one of those easy unders every week until it doesn't hit and then all bets are off but i feel like that's when you want to ride right now until we see him get worked up it's probably gonna be like four weeks until he's at a full workload and this isn't the game for it yeah connor i saw a move on fandu a little bit i don't know if that's where you hit it. Is there a kind of a floor for where you would continue to chase it to?

I think I put 35.5. Still 35.5 on FanDuel. Yeah, 38.5 on DK, 38.5 on MGM right now. I think that's still a good look. Yeah. All right, I like it. Pat, last one for you. Okay, so I have a bunch of them here written down.

And I want to see where your guys' heads are at with this one. I also want to take a look at this. Zach, what do you think the Jets' offense looks like with Zach Wilson and Nacho Flacco? Maybe I'll just throw that out as a very broad question. Do they pass at the same rate? Are they playing as fast? Or do they slow it down a bit? I think they're inefficient.

So I took Jets' total under 19 and a half. As far as like splits, I would imagine it's probably pretty similar. Again, I think there's less teeth with the Steelers pass rush here, but I wouldn't imagine anything from how the plays get distributed.

That's massively different. But yeah, I mean, I'm fine with fading Zach Wilson. It's not that. It's like the over under completions and attempts like they have him back down at like 33's like the over under completions and attempts. Like they have him back down at like 33 and a half 19 completions. The overs on those kind of sound right.

Based on how this game should go. Doesn't it? Zach Wilson over attempts is in our prop tool. One of the best values. It's popping. Same as mine. Yeah. But like,

do you trust that? Because that's probably based off Flacco numbers. That's fair. Yeah. I don't trust it. Yeah. But like, do you trust that? Because that's probably based off Flacco numbers. That's fair. Yeah. I don't trust it. Yeah. It's the two strongest leans this week are Zach Wilson overpass completions, Zach Wilson overpass attempts, both hit at, according to my numbers at over a 90% clip. If you like it, because he is such a, such a tendency to be a downfield passer so far in his career i would probably go with attempts more so than completions because i think maybe he's less efficient but that would be my lean if i was going to take one of them you see i also have zach wilson over 205.5 passing yards over

hitting like 87 of the time yeah i think we have him like 230 something i just have no idea so i'm just not betting it but i have i mean you could probably throw together yeah i don't know i i just really i go back and forth on it so much that I don't think he's good, but that we just saw them throw the ball, whatever, 50 plus times with Joe Flacco in two games, you know, like, does it even matter if he's good? I mean, they don't, didn't seem to care if it was Flacco. So I have no idea. I think that the over is probably the right lean here just based on like volume alone.

So the other ones I was taking a look at was lamar jackson over 229 passing yards thought this was strange now i know that he's kind of around this number unless he goes off against the dolphins that's what we've seen through three weeks but there's weather concerns for this game i understand that but it's not affected josh allen's prop at all the bills have no secondary to speak of and i think we lose sight of that based on what miami wasn't able to do to them in the passing game last week because look i mean i mean i feel bad for two at this point but you know they had they tried to take their shots but all they did was just try to get into his face force him out right or left and he doesn't

have the arm strength to get there lamar does lamar can go over top of this defense no problem like once you get past the front four of the bills at this point in time they have absolute scrubs on defense so it feels like this could just be like two big plays one to duverday one one to isaiah likely something like that now maybe they'll want to control the game on the ground. That's where the hesitation comes in. I like that one. The other one's like Rashad Penny over 59 and a half rushing yards. Love Penny this week.

Ramondre Stevenson against the worst run defense in the league, 44 and a half based on his workload last week. Seems pretty good. But I think the one that I'm going to circle, put out there is the one that I just kind of identified. And I'm willing to be way wrong on this. But with the way that the Lions have played defenses so far, your wide receiver one essentially gets taken out of the game.

Whoever they choose to identify as your wide receiver one. They put a Kuda on you, and he has been fantastic so far. We saw nothing from Jefferson. We've seen nothing from Terry McLaurin. We saw nothing from Devonta Smith in week one. It led to this overreaction where it's like, oh my God, A.J. Brown's going to have 25 targets a game. It's like, no, actually they think that Devonta Smith is wide receiver one.

That's why he ended up with so many targets in that game. And if this is the case, Tyler Lockett, over 62 and a half receiving yards, should smash. You could play him like outline up to 100 if you wanted to. If you're right about this because it goes the wrong way where he has none DK has it all but if you want to tell yourself like a same game parlay game story it's like over 80 for Tyler Lockett receiving yards and under the 75 and a half for DK and you're off to the races I love the title locket plays what I was bemoaning to

Connor on Wednesday when it like first popped and I missed it. And it was like 57 and a half and they just hung out there like 57 and a half, like minus one 40 forever. And then they finally took it down and moved it. Same exact thought process. It was like one of my first attacks this week. And yeah, still on it.

Still like that spot quite a bit. Gino has been pretty good, especially like from a completion percentage over expectation. Like he's taking what the defense gives him and yeah the yakuta stuff pat laid it out perfectly i'm also kind of there on lamar too like the lamar number jumped out as like why is that so low i don't give two shits about the weather here you know we talked about how the you know the rain is not really a factor even if it's coming down there's wind it's not going to be wind where chris allen has done a lot

of work for us around that it's not going to be to a point where it's problematic to react to um so i've you know i think both those looks are pretty good connor any thoughts on some of the stuff pat laid out no yeah i like the the locket one i was looking at some metcalf unders for the same reason but i i hate betting against dk metcalf and like all he's just so good that like all it takes is one catch for him to not be lined up where he could house it. So I couldn't do it, but I think the lock it overs are a good look there. And then with Lamar,

we expect the pace pace to be pushed. I mean, I took the over in this game. I think that this is a back and forth affair. Mark Andrews should have a big day to sitting in that zone, you know, against Buffalo. So I think it should be good.

Yeah. The Laura thing we talked about it last night on the game preview show. What's really different with Lamar this week compared to the last couple weeks is baltimore because they're so beat up they're gonna play a ton of zone and lamar's really feasted the last two weeks against very man-heavy teams two of the most man-heavy looks defensively all season is in miami and new england um so that would be the change but still seems so drastic to have it be down that far in the low two twenties. And when you think about this game environment with a total at 51 and a half that, you know,

just going to have to be pushing the pace. So yeah, I have no problem with, uh, with that look at all. So, I mean, he hasn't covered this number in two or three games. Like even last week, it felt like he was having a huge game, but it was all on the ground. He had a hundred yards rushing and he only had 218 in the air yeah like 120 yards and four touchdown passes in like halftime or something like that so yeah it's been a lot of scores but not necessarily a ton of yards also notable and it's probably pretty noisy because it's small sample in the season buffalo by far the best team in defending

tight ends this season so again you try to look at who they played give it some context they were really good last year too so that's a little bit larger of a sample but again andrews is such a focal point of this offense i have no problem thinking that he has a nice game here but i'm gonna stay in that game for my last one as pat mentioned this weather no concerns the game environment no concerns i'm taking josh allen over 286 and a half passing yards looks Looks like there's a 285 on DraftKings. I booked it at 282, but basically if you look at any projections,

projections that we have, if you look at anything out there that you trust from a projection standpoint, he's basically like 320 to 340 in most spots. Again, there may be some concerns for some with Gabe Davis playing. I just don't really think it matters. I think this Ravens defense is a problem.

It looks more like last year's unit than what I thought was coming in this season. They're dead last in passing yards allowed in total yards per game. Success rate, they're 26. I think success rate matters a lot early in the season as we start to build up a sample of data. You know, EPA, DVOA, they're kind of middle of the pack. I think success rate kind of tells a better story. It makes sense that like Miami picked them apart, right? But like last week, Mac Jones and like Devante Parker

were like pulling off 20, 25 yards at a time. Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey, I don't think are 100%. They're going to play. But like with some of the injuries, Kyle Fuller's out for the year. They've added this kid, know brandon stevens he's 90th out of 103 pff corners in coverage grade so far this season that's not good and alan's top this in five straight dating back

to last year i think he gets there here in a big big way bouncy back steph diggs gabe davis whoever else is out there isaiah mckenzie i think they eat here. So no problem with that. What are your thoughts, Pat? I haven't projected 330. So you're getting about 50 yards of value here. See, that's also a nine. Connor, I know you were leaning here, but I'm not sure if you took any action. I did not take any action, but I agree.

It's just so high already as is. I don't know. I mean, I'd probably almost rather just like play like a same game parlay and just like hit whatever Josh Allen, 300 Lamar, two 50, you know, like just parlay it all together and hope for the best that, you know, like shoots out there. Yeah. I mean, I, I thought about something like that because I really liked the Atlanta game. I don't know who's going to win it, but I don't like people think that Cleveland has a good defense. They don't at all. They're beat up too. They even gave up like mid-20s points to Carolina, who was god awful. So keep that in mind.

Like Drake London over 60 yards with Kyle Pitts over 60 yards with Nick Chubb over 95 rushing yards. Those three alone, that pays almost seven to one. I got two others that I want to get your thoughts on. Connor and I were talking before we get started um first is a connor allen special it is a uh something that connor would do not something that i would typically do because it's so volatile but naheem hines rushing yards under 12 and a half he's got 11 on the season um it's ugly i think he has like you know three carries one carry three carries and those are like i would imagine what you would call like scheme breakers. Cause obviously, you know, tendency breakers, he's a, he's in there.

You think you're going to pass to him. So occasionally you give him a little bit of like a dive out of shotgun. So obviously 12 and a half is not a high threshold. So again, like this can be busto on one carry, but I think he probably gets two carries and he's not been very efficient so far this season. So again, 11 yards on the season,

I think our projection is like four and a half. What are your thoughts there, Pat? The one thing I don't like about it is this Jonathan Taylor toe injury, which he's, he's fine. He's going to play, but if it's a bit more substantial than maybe we're being led to

believe that maybe it's a naheem heinz seven carry game if they really do want to run the ball and taylor still gets is like 16 to 20 whatever it is but instead of getting 27 those extra ones end up going to naheem heinz that would be my only fear about this not coming under that's a wet blanket that i needed for that though because it's that's it's so volatile that when the threshold is that low that that's it right yeah i mean he he gets one to two carries i feel great about it he gets three to four carries i don't feel so good about it it's uh yeah i don't know the other is uh aaron rogers um under 31 and a half pass attempts in a game that i think new england's trying to try to get out of there as quick as possible by running the football. I think Green Bay likes to play slow, likes to run the football. We saw it in the game against Chicago where Chicago ran the ball a ton and

Green Bay did not have to do a lot. Rodgers had 25 pass attempts. We have, I think, a tick over, it's 31 and a half. I think we like 32 and change this is probably a nice lean but again i just think the way that game's gonna go probably low volume just overall raw plays what are your thoughts pat you see that mac jones is practicing today i mean he's he's practicing in the sense that like he's standing on the sideline playing catch like it's crazy but if they i cannot believe that they're gonna put him out there but I don't know whether that impacts it for me. I just feel like, I don't know. I'm with you because it does feel like the best path here for the Patriots.

It's like why I like the Patriots and the points. Just take Harris, take Stevenson, run them into the ground, try to milk this clock, limit the amount of possessions in this game, and hope to get lucky somewhere with a pick or an untimely muff punt. Like that's, it's funny that that's where the Patriots are at right now, but when you're the, a big underdog in this game, likely starting Brian Hoyer, these are the things that you need to go your way. And then you have the Packers on the other side of the ball. Like, you know, if, if a game is within a touchdown, they're the second slowest team in the league. And if you just take them into neutral circumstances, they're the second slowest team in the league and if you just take them into neutral circumstances they're the second slowest team in the league they don't play fast whatsoever i mean that's a very large contributing factor just the amount of bulk that you're going to get from them in general and we

know that they want to run the ball they run every first down for no apparent reason never works but that's why you're seeing these rogers under attempts really come through so i like like i love where you're going with that yeah that feels a little bit more sustainable to me than the uh naheem hines one so might take a look at that after the show so all right the bonus props for you guys here uh we're gonna get to your questions in a moment so again if you have anything you're hanging out with us uh before we do so connor we'd love to get your thoughts on any picks on thrive this week again thrive the promo code proprop gets you a first deposit match instantly up to $250. There is a massive overlay in their tournament this week, and we would love to help them. Fill it, Connor, any looks that you have on Thrive.

Yeah, you can get a couple of good ones here that I like. Rogers, 235 and a half passing yards. I guess that's about right. Devonta Adams, 90 receiving yards. It's a little bit high. Juju Smith-Schuster, 42 and a half receiving yards is about 10-ish yards off market. So I like the over on that one a good bit. Leonard Fournette, over under one and a half total touchdowns. You know, you can just take the under there. It's a free square. Matt Ryan over under half an interception, I think, is interesting. Tyler Lockett, we mentioned him.

Five and a half receptions. Over, you can get kind of plus money, their version of that. So I think that's a pretty good look. Jonathan Taylor, too, you can get plus money on over 92 and a half rushing yards. Justin Herbert, 275 and a half passing yards. Justin Herbert last week had the worst on-target throw percentage in the league by 20%. He had a 37% on-target throw percentage.

Right now, the worst player in the league in on-target throw percentage is Baker Mayfield at 56%. So just to show how hurt, banged up Justin Herbert was, I don't know what to do with him, but I would lean towards the under in this spot because I don't think they're just going to sling it here. And Keenan Allen matters too. Obviously his status is not looking good here too.

So yeah, those are some of the ones that I like too. I think CeeDee Lamb is actually a pretty decent look. He's getting peppered with targets. It's a nice matchup against Washington. Like you said, we already highlighted Tyler Lockett. That's a great play there too. Aaron Jones at 47 and a half rushing yards feels really light.

Comparatively, we have him around 60. I talked about that a few moments ago, just thinking there's going to be a good amount of carries in that game too. And yeah, I think that that's a nice look. Build a little tournament lineup over on Thrive. Make yourself some money just by entering the tournaments

because it will for sure overlay. All right's get into uh some of the questions that you guys have so far this week appreciate you hanging out as always kevin front of the show likes mariotta over 210 passing yards looks like that's on points bet uh pat any leans on uh mariotta while you bring that up no actually it's funny because i like his receivers over but i don't necessarily love his over because he really only passes to two guys so they can both i mean they could both get exactly 100 yards and he still doesn't get to that total now he would he would pass to patterson he passed as a key as or kaderil hodge whoever it may be but i just feel like his passing tree is so limited that unless those guys

go at one of those guys at least goes nuclear it's going to be very tough for him to get there i mean i would lean to the over but it's not a strong play for me yeah we're a tick under connor any thoughts no i think you guys covered it's just kind of like a pass for me yeah we're at 205 on mariotta and i am i'm'm 221 on Mariota in fairness. Yeah. Still not necessarily a 221, even like a bettable edge from an over standpoint, in my opinion. Yeah.

Like the ones I pointed out earlier, like your Josh Allen number is like 50 yards off. My Derrick Henry number is like 35 yards off in terms of rushing. Like those, like that's where I'm looking to hit the prop market. Like, yeah, my numbers tell me that he should hit this.

I don't know what, like 57% of the time, 56% of the time, I guess barely better than the big. Let's see Travis at the end over receiving yards. Listen, I running back receiving yards are just, they're, they're, they're tough. What do you think, Pat? The only one I would think about, I didn't even see what the number was, but just like logically in my mind, the one that makes the most sense to me this week is whatever over Eckler's receiving numbers are because Herbert can't pass as it was just stated Slater's out and the Texans have a top five pass rush. So dump off city. Let's see. We got 18 at 17 and a half across the board. Looks like MGM is the best number for that.

There has been a pretty, and again, there hasn't been a lot of sample size of Jacksonville playing from behind, but they do seem to have a fairly predictable split in terms of when James Robinson is playing and when Etienne is playing in a spot where there are six and a half point dogs on the road, you would think it leads to a little bit more. So I understand where Gabriel is coming from here with the question, but there's just so much volatility. You know gone down this road so many times. Connor, what do you think? Yeah, I can't do it. I mean, this is another guy like Edmonds. I just had to change my priors. I was just wrong. I don't know. I'm not going to say that I'm right about everything here because this was a blatant

miss. And so I'm going to just, you know, take my L and not start chasing here with an over, you know, honors receiving yards. Cause I mean, James Robinson looks great and he's being used in the running and receiving game plenty. So I just don't think that there's no reason for them to get ETN involved more like as of now. For example, by the way, well, I'm that thing. Like my baseline projections have him at five catches for 41 yards. I think we're looking more like seven, eight catches for like 70 yards for him. Yeah, I think that actually goes even more into the Keenan Allen thing. Like if Keenan Allen's out, it's like he becomes the safe chain mover

because they're so limited, and obviously he is too. So him wanting to get the ball out early and not take those hits I think makes a ton of sense. Here's the problem though they're not releasing any austin echo receiving props they know that we'll probably get him saturday night sunday morning there's a few things on the board i would love to get to they have uh good one here connor you've already talked about this one barbara jones yes under 44 and a half receiving yards um jayvon talking about how the eagles limit big plays. And yeah, obviously there's some questions with Zay Jones there,

but what do you think about Marv? Yeah, I like this under a lot. I mean, he's gone under this every single game and he's, I mean, he looks horrible. He looks old, you know, toughest matchup by far for the season. My only question, the only reason I'm waiting is because Zay Jones picked up an ankle injury, didn't practice yesterday.

And then they said they're going to make a final decision on him for tonight. I don't think that it necessarily matters too much. I think it's still a good play. But the thing is, Marvin Jones' snaps actually went down last week. He was not playing as much as he normally was the previous week. So that just makes it an even better play. If Zay Jones is playing, they're at full strength. I think Jones probably plays a little bit less.

I still like the under there for him there. But yeah, I don't know. That's kind of where I'm at full strength. Like, I think Jones probably plays a little bit less. I still like the under there for him there. But yeah, I don't know. That's kind of where I'm at with it. Yeah, I have him right around here, but he has performed below expectation on the amount of targets that he's received so far. So my numbers are confused by that. Like, no, here's what his historical baseline is. Why isn't he doing that anymore?

And, you know, he's going to have games where he does go over this, obviously. But it's another one of those keep riding it until they adjust the number to the right side. If Zay Jones doesn't play, I would just expect an increase like Evan Ingram's at 27 and a half receiving yards. The over of that is, I think a better play than either side of the Marvin Jones.

Yeah, I agree. I was looking at Evan Ingram's been involved, right? We can have to move past priors and a lot of other ways too. Like dudes out there running routes at a pretty high clip, an elite clip from a tight end standpoint. So, all right. Looks like MGM is the best place to chase the under on Nico Collins. Maybe it's getting some serious juice.

I'm not quite sure of the timestamps here, but hey, Nico Collins might have already jumped the shark here. Might be gone. Looks like Ryan Tannehill over 220 and a half passing yards from Lucas here. I don't know, Pat, what are your thoughts here on Tannehill? I mean, I went heavy over on Henry, and I really think he does smash through that number, like 100 plus yards.

If that happens, it's probably pretty unlikely that both he and Tannehill go off. It's not a game I expect to shoot out, put it that way. Yeah, I mean, I'm down in this passing game. I don't love any of the pass catchers here. I think the only reason I'd be hesitant is kind of how I talked about earlier. I think Henry, even though that prop now was such a low threshold, I think they might struggle a little bit, and they might be forced into more passing yards and you know tannahill can get there on garbage time connor any thoughts on the titans passing game no honestly this game

is just it's i think that it should be like the rushing props or nothing i was eyeing the only thing other thing i was eyeing this game would be like colts ancillary pass catching unders because i just don't think any of them see much work here and that the colts probably just i mean jonathan taylor buys an awesome day did on the other side of the ball derrick henry's the focal point so it's like a slow game with very few plays so that was kind of my only look for that one there i like colts under sacks if that's something you can find i see like individual or team sacks what the hell is that they make sacks so hard to find yeah some of the team sack stuff they don't post also till like saturday night sunday morning too yeah like i i obliterate like i had a lot of success on monday

night like everything i bet came true in that dallas i mean i think a lot of people had a lot of success in that game just because anyone who ran a projection model like hey man these over-unders are way off like they're off by like 20 yards five passing attempts and just like there's gonna be a much faster paced game that i even if it's low scoring and like crappy it's gonna be a higher volume game than people think and with the colt stuff i mean the over they were over two and a half sacks for Dallas. Like, that's craziness. And this Colts team, they just don't get to the passer at all. Like, ever. I think they have one sack this year.

Not great. Cody agrees with our Derek Henry love. Appreciate the love for the show. Henry continues to fall. Will continue to smash. 80 and a half in some spots last week. 87 and a half in others. Yeah, I mean, it's just wild how much they've adjusted. So makes a lot of sense. I like Pat's look there quite a bit. See what else we got. Gabriel wants us to talk about the Bateman over unders. Um, I don't know

what those are. Um, let's see where we're at. I don't, I will tell you, I don't like them either way. What you'll want to do is it's almost like Connor said a little bit earlier. If you like Bateman this week, bet his like progressive over a hundred yards. Agreed. Like, I just don't see him finishing with 62. We thought he was going to be, that's actually exactly what our projection is.

We, we had him last year. He was like a low a dot guy, kind of like a move the chains guy. And this year he's like the field stretcher it's very bizarre uh connor i'm guessing you kind of feel the same yeah no take play the alts if you want it but i think it correlates well with uh the lamar passing over if that's something you're interested in so i guess you know i think that there's just better ways to play than just like the 47 and a half

over you know you could just get some more more juicier squeezing connor let me get your thoughts i know you took gabe Gabe Davis earlier in the week. Questions about re-aggravating his injury. Again, he said today, if we want to buy into player speak, I'm 100% playing. It's down, I think you posted 50.5. It's 48.5. Imagine he'll get all the horse tranquilizers and everything

you could possibly, fentanyl, whatever he needs to get himself out there. What are your thoughts on 48 and a half at this point? Yeah. I mean, Gabe Davis on a bum ankle still get to 50 yards. So I'm not too worried against this, uh, you know, Raven secondary, I think he'll be fine, but at this point, obviously it sucks. We bet this on like, you know, whatever, two days ago when, before he was even out of any practice, you know, I, he was out there for every snap. He played the most snaps of any bills, wide receivers in like 90 plays. And then, you know, I guess got hurt somewhere. You know, he was one of the few guys not keeling over nearly passed out on the field. So I thought that we were probably in the clear for this week, but I guess not.

So would still lean over. But yeah, obviously the ankle was a little bit concerning. Ian wants to tell us that we don't need any more work from ETN. He's gone over 17 and a half in all three games. Yes, Ian, three games is a very small sample. And if you look at how noisy receiving yards for running backs is statistically over the course of a season, it's just such a volatile thing.

Even looking at routes run, all those different things. It's just a very, very hard thing to put your hands on. Looks like Montgomery just got ruled out. Yeah, we would love some Khalil Herbert overs, again, depending on what that comes out at. We talked about it last night on the game preview show.

The Bears suck. The offensive line is actually terrible. They're dead last by a significant margin in adjusted sack rate, but from a run-blocking standpoint, they're at dead last by a significant margin in adjusted sack rate but from a run blocking standpoint they're terrific they're like top five in adjusted line yards they are i think first in secondary yards like they're creating these big holes for big plays i think khalil again if he's not sharing we would love montgomery's number at you know in the spot against the giants so again hard to kind of say yes we want to look at overs and we don't have the number

because obviously that's not the right way to do it. But I'm interested in seeing what they're posted at. Same thing with like a Jamal Williams, who's, you know, set up for a nice workload against Seattle this week. I dispute that by the way. Tell me, I don't think his role changes whatsoever. Who's that? Williams, jamal williams yeah so you think just craig reynolds steps into yeah i think he probably i think it's probably true we've seen it so it's just such a good matchup still i think even even though he might not see a ton more work it could still be a really good spot so yeah i'm not blindly chasing overs we should never just think automatically i'm gonna bet over because this guy's gonna step into a workload

i think khalil sees more than jamal and i don't know oh yeah i mean this is kind of what i broke it down to like the max amount of touches you're probably looking at for jamal williams i mean let's say an 85 90th percentile outcome 20 carries for him which is great don't get me wrong but if it's not reynolds because reynolds is banged up it's going to be justin jackson or like they'll sign'll sign Jamar Jefferson and get him on the go. It's just one of those weird things where the Lions have a very set way that they want to run their backfield and no one person is in. It would be like if Jamal Williams was out.

That doesn't necessarily mean that DeAndre Swift would have 25 touches. He would have like 16 because that's how they run their offense the bears on the other hand and maybe i'm wrong on this maybe they'll use that random weirdo who was getting touches last week in the first half yeah yeah but like in the second half it was all herbert all the time when they were trying to win that game so i could see herbert actually having like 30 plus touches here which is real value like whatever his over under comes in at it's going to be too low yeah i think that's fair what do you think connor yeah and i think we're gonna probably see it i would guess in the 60s honestly like low 60s what i think we'll get and

that's a that's a smash over like here i'm i originally had david montgomery in for five or 50 of the workload so and i have fields at 30 realistically, he doesn't actually run that much. So let's just put her... Let's be conservative with Herbert for a second. Let's put him at 65% of the rushing share, and we'll put that other loser at like 6% or 5%, whatever it is. What's his name? Ebner? Ebner. Yeah.

Dave Ebner, WWF referee. So we'll even take his market share of TDs down. We'll just give, for simplicity's sake, to make this easy on ourselves, we'll just give that all to Khalil Herbert and be on our way with all of this. And I'll just run, I'm going to run this late 10,000 times. Super easy.

And see how this works with this new projection that I have put in for Khalil Herbert and 65% of the carries with a team with a rushing rate of around 60 that, you know, it's going to run enough plays and see what that kicks him out at. Maybe I'm completely wrong. Like having the numbers come out after these simulations, less than five seconds for the simulations. Love that. And let's see here, rushing attempts for the week. He comes in second now. So his baseline projection after the 10,000 Sims, giving him just 65%

of the rushing workload for the Bears, 20 carries, 106 yards, half a touchdown. It's a nice little week. They're going to come out in the 60s. I agree, Connor. That and Henry are going to be the two most lopsided ones for me, I think.

Yeah. And you make a great point, Pat. That and Henry are going to be the two most lopsided ones for me, I think. Yeah. And you make a great point, Pat. We have historical reference points on Detroit because Swift misses three, four games a year, and we know how they handled last year with the same coaching staff. So, yeah, I think there's reason to be more bullish on what we see with Herbert than what we see with Williams with Swift on the lineup. What is Jamal Williams over under? So it's at the attempts right now or 16 and a half and a rushing yardage is

like 62. Oh, okay. So my, my projections have him at 15 for 62. Like that feels, that feels so trappy. The under has to hit.

Cause everyone wants to bet those overs. The attempts under is looks interesting too, because like you said, he's not just going to like see all the carries there. And if there's any concerns about Detroit's offense, like faltering a little bit here, you know, and they get into any kind of like neutral negative game script,

I don't know. Could push it a little bit in the other direction. So 16 and a half carry seems like a little bit rich. Yeah. Oh, his, what happened last year? I'll tell you,

I'll tell you that I'm fading him 100% on draft King. So he's destined to go off. Yeah. We did a couple of spots last year, 19 carries, 17 carries, 15 carries in games without Swift. So he's right around there.

Okay. Right around there. Now, who did they play in the two games where he had all the carries? Uh, Minnesota. Close game that they blew at the end at home uh then on the road against atlanta uh 19 for 77 and what was the score of that game uh let me see you don't have the score here uh detroit 2016 so detroit won that game and they were winning most i'm sorry atlanta 2016

yep atlanta 2016 so okay so i don't know what the flow of that game and they were winning most I'm sorry Atlanta 2016 yeah Atlanta 2016 so okay so I don't know what the flow of that game is that just seems I do feel like they I mean there's no Saint Brown there's no Swift maybe there is an over reliance on the Russian game here but I I would be looking at the Josh Reynolds if Chark ends up playing if Hawkinson ends up playing like those sorts of guys I feel like their overs are just gonna be more attainable in a game like this and weirdly like everyone kind of rags on seattle for playing so slow but a lot of that is just predicated from week one when they were up the entire game they just tried to milk the rest of the game out because they knew they had nothing left in in the rest of the game so far the last two weeks when they've been down in situations they're not

slow whatsoever they're actually one of the faster teams out there in neutral situations like they're above league average in pace of play it shows once they like when you look at their like seven point lead or more stats in terms of clock management they're the slowest team in the league yep needed pete carroll to get rid of russell wilson for him to kind of just unleash the offense but yeah they they're not the last couple weeks as you mentioned they're not, the last couple weeks, as you mentioned, they're not slow. So, all right, that does it for the questions. We appreciate it. Real quick, we're going to get to

Producer Sal's Prop of the Week. All right, if you're watching here on YouTube, this is our prop tool. It's tied to our projections at 444, which has been the best in the industry for over a decade, proven out over in the Fantasy Pros competition with John Paulson. You can get this as part of our betting subscription at 444. There's a deal today that expires September, gets you 25% off of any package at 444. So take advantage of that deal.

And the betting sub gets you access to literally everything on the site. Highly, highly recommend that. Looks like we have a parlay from the aforementioned Zach Wilson here. Sal is looking to just hit the overs on Wilson over on passing yards. And he likes over a half a touchdown. That is juiced at minus 140 um like zach wilson to uh come in and hit the ground running off of the meniscus tear with a uh you know jv style offensive line here i caught all your thoughts on producer sal's

parlay yeah i can't get there i mean i mean even mean, even if, yeah, even if the volume is there, like you can't watch this game in real time. And this is like a, you know, condensed version you watch later. I don't know. I think for this one, I mean, it's probably the right side just because I think that they throw the ball more than expected, but I I'm just so down on Zach Wilson. I, I, I just think he sucks. So the matchup is not super easy, so I'm out on this, but Sal, good luck. Hopefully you win a lot of Canadian dollars. Hope it works out. Yeah, aching strongly to those priors.

I'm with you there, Connor. No problem there. Until he proves me otherwise, I'm willing to fade Zach. Yeah, Pat, you gave us your thoughts on Zach Wilson here already. Yeah, I'm going to play like every single week I have sort of my like biggest leans in terms of what

the projections say. And then I usually play those all together and like my top seven all hit last week. And I can assure you I didn't play all seven of them because I'm an idiot.

But like I went with my gut plays and like I've lost horribly on my gut plays and all the projection plays came through. So if that one's going to really going to be like a 91% winner of what the numbers say,

like I got to go with it. Yeah. Yeah. At this point we have more data to write your projections and some of the stuff that we're doing on the back ends should get better too. So we should probably lean on them. And then confirmation bias. You were seven percent last week.

You got to push, push the edges. So good stuff. thanks as always sal again player prop tool on the uh site for four.com slash plans sub timber uh expires on friday so hopefully you're watching live you can take advantage of that podcast forum uh if you miss it dm me we'll happy to take care of you and get you that deal uh and go from there so good stuff as always pat where can everyone find all of your stuff at the pme on twitter the facebook's for you olds out there and instagrams for you sexy ladies out there but not really i'm married it's to look i suppose it doesn't cost anything to look but uh mayo media network is where you want to find me for most of the stuff oh that's good

doesn't matter where you get the appetite pat as long as you eat at home uh i was told so uh good stuff as always for connor and pat i'm ryan we'll see you all next time you