Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 5 2023 Player PROP BETS

Episode Date: October 6, 2023

Welcome to your go-to source for Expert NFL Week 5 2023 Player PROP BETS! Join us as we dive deep into the world of NFL player prop betting, bringing you the hottest takes, top picks, and precise predictions, with a special spotlight on David Montgomery and other standout NFL stars. Navigate through a sea of betting opportunities with our expert analysis and predictions for NFL Week 5 2023 player prop bets, and get an in-depth look at player stats, performances, and prop betting odds. We're here to guide you through top picks, predictions, and odds for prop betting, offering strategic insights to elevate your betting game. Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow John on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/sloprulesVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

Hello and welcome to Move the Line, presented by Fandle Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Newnan, back to talk about the best way and the most profitable way to bet on NFL football, and that is through player props. Live here, 2 p.m. Eastern every Friday on the 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel with these two handsome young men giving out our favorite player props and taking your questions.

So we appreciate it if you're hanging out with us now on YouTube. If you are, jump in the chat. Let us know what your favorite look is for week five. If you want our thoughts on a play, feel free to ask. We'll get to as many as we can here at the very end of the show. Support the show. It's free content.

Subscribe, thumbs up, likes. Do it on the podcast as well. We appreciate that. Podcast should be available on Friday evenings. You want to hang out with us on the YouTube channel, though, on the 444Bets channel, because this is where you're going to be able to get the actual lines and numbers and things that we're releasing while we do it here. Joining me here, as always, Connor Allen from Parts Unknown. Connor, how are we doing today?

Doing well. I'm in Colorado for a wedding. I would love to say that this is my last wedding of the year, but I still have two more. So I'll probably be filming some of these from remote places. Right now I'm in an Airbnb that looks honestly like my grandparents' house. So that's kind of fun. It smells like grandpa's house. Like, I don't know, it's just kind of a little strange. And as you can see, I got the weird rack above my head. So we're living here, right?

No better time to fire some props, though. Slop, you and I are not of the age where a lot of our friends are getting married uh connor is in that uh life the only running i've been to in the last handful of years is connor's so um now i'm pretty good so uh how we doing today buddy oh good yeah all our friends get divorced now we're on that side so yes it hits home but it's what circle of life you know it is yeah that's just unfortunate but uh it is the circle of life for uh where are we at 50 52 percent of the country at this point it's crazy but uh it's nuts right at minus 110 that's right it's right there uh you can find slop on twitter at slop rules uh don't forget to find them over over on odds jam

as well lots of great stuff that they do over there. There are odd screens, all that stuff. I'm sure slop will share some of that too, but don't forget to check him out over on odds jam. This is prop drop. This is our Friday show. Two episodes of moving line each week,

Wednesday, Connor, myself and sharp Clark go on more of the sides of totals, game previews, breakdowns, a little bit more hand in the dirt football takes. Again, that's 3 p.m. Eastern on Wednesdays on the 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel and then in the podcast feed as well.

If you want to get the official plays, all the stuff that Connor and I push out, all the things that Sharp Cart pushes out as well, you need a betting subscription at 4 for 4. We have a deal. We actually, now that we're in week five, we've already dropped the seasonal price. The year long price has already taken a dip. You can also use promo code prop drop for an extra 25% off. So now you're getting into a spot where like, it's almost 50% off of what the typical annual sub is, which is fantastic. Betting sub. That's insane. It's an insane deal. It gets you access to everything we do. We're going to,

I mean, legit, this is like, I don't want to sound like, you know, bet touty and like, we're literally going to make you enough this week to pay for that betting sub. I'm just saying, we're just, we're going to do it. So take advantage of it. 444.com slash plans. The betting subscription gets you access to everything. So if you're playing DFS season long, you want access to all the articles, rankings, projections, all the tools that we have on the site. Betting sub gets you access to all of it. So four, four.com slash plans, promo code prop drop for an extra 25% off. All right. Uh, let's jump into week five live lines, all available, no stale bread. Uh, we want to make sure you guys can get down on those here

as possible. Connor floors, yours yours. Week five, first play. Yeah, my first play for this week is going to be DeAndre Swift over 64.5 rushing yards. So he has 14, 16, 28 carries the last three weeks. Nuggets a pretty good draw against the Rams defense here. I think in this spot he's primed to have a good day here, and specifically because the Rams lead the league in light box rate at 74 percent so they're not putting a ton of guys in the box if you look at how the Eagles have performed against those teams this year they've averaged 4.72 yards per carry have

been stuffed at the lowest rate in the league and are averaging 2.21 yards before contact on those against those fronts so like they're getting easy yards DeAndre Swift has looked great and I know the number is high like I know that we're probably hoping to get something in the low to mid or the mid to high fifties here, but in this spot, I think it's just an absolute smash spot here where he gets 15 plus carries, you know, his favorites against the Rams. So I really like Swift and Swift here. I think you can play some alts too. I think you can get like maybe a little bit, an 80, 90, a hundred plus here, but I really think that like 64, 65 and a half is just way too low. Like it slop. any thoughts on swift uh the people are

gonna be pissed at you connor because i mean there's already somebody that said they're here for the unders and here you are just banging overs right out of the gate oh i got an under coming up later don't worry i'm gonna be a little more balanced not you know i can't capitulate just to slops overs you know release my only overs of the show i gotta stay a little more true to myself here and release some more unders you would be horrified in my card so far it's like five unders and maybe one over yeah i'm sick just thinking about it uh slob any interest in that game or any thoughts on uh on swift in particular i'll tell you what i'm gonna do is literally the same game, but Matthew Stafford, 300 plus passing yards, plus 194 right now at the great FanDuel, sponsor of the show, no big deal.

But look, the Eagles have given up 300 plus yards to Mac Jones. They've given it up like 360 something to Kirk Cousins. Sam Howell went 290, I think, last week against them. I mean, Stafford's getting cut back. Pook and the Kool, it's nice. Tutu Atwell, they should get behind. They're not going to be able to run on the Eagles. So we might even get a nice base in the first half. And then once they're behind, obviously it's throw time. But yeah, 300 just feels very low, especially when you're talking about plus 194. I feel like I'm missing something, but I'm not. So yeah. And that's Fandle, right?

Yep. Fandle has some really good Stafford stuff. It's actually- They're lower than everybody yeah they uh i'm looking at the screen right now right it's 269 or i think so yeah everywhere else has like 275 and a half i believe that's the standard line so i mean that's a good that's a good line i like the alt they're taking it almost two to one I'm staying with not only the same game, I'm staying with the same player.

I like Stafford. You can go a couple different ways here. You can go the yards. I like the way that you did it. I like over 37.5 passing attempts. You can also go over 24.5 completions if you can't get a good FanDuel has the best number on the passing attempts. So if you can get the

114, that's on FanDuel right now. FanDuel also has the best number on the on the uh passing attempt so if you can get the 114 that's on fan duel right now uh fan duel also has the best completion number draft kings points bet if you have prop builder um that you can get a pretty good price on the completion percentage but uh yeah i mean the rams are kind of laid it out i mean if they're only on 63 of their snaps it's the seventh highest rate and like pass rate over expectation cup coming back like we talked about it on the wednesday show like i really like re-watching that game the rams came out and played with pace they had like a bunch of no huddle they ran a hurry up and it worked they got up to like a 20 to zip lead then they took their foot off the gas for some reason and it nearly cost them they have to hold on um and now like they're playing the eagles teams are throwing

at a 73.7% clip against the Eagles second highest rate in the league. Only team that people throw on more is the Niners in that game cup when they played Stafford through 55 times. So he's topped this number in three or four. He's been basically on or above the completion number in three or four as well. So I love a spot where he likes to win over the middle of the field. That's where the Eagles are susceptible, safeties, linebackers, all that stuff are kind of weak there. So, yeah, 37.5 attempts for Stafford.

I don't think you can put attempts in the same game parlay, but we're building a – again, we did this on purpose by accident. We're building you a same game parlay in the Philly and Rams game. So, yeah, I'm in on all the Stafford stuff. No, I like that. I think that that was one of my looks there. I think that you could play that game so many ways. Like Slop said, like I don't think they're going to be able to run the ball at all.

And I don't think that we have any Kieran Williams props up. He got injured a little bit last week. He was like – he's a little bit tentative in practice right now. They've already talked about them not potentially, you know, running the ball with him as much. So, like, I think that that is a really good look as well and something that's on my radar. Yeah, it's a good call.

He dinged up a little bit. It'll be interesting to see what happens. I don't know who gets more carries, but, I mean, Ronnie Rivers, like, got a bunch of carries last year. So, I don't think that really matters, you know. Yeah. All right, there's a little same-game parlay action over on FanDuel. Again, you love when the sponsor has the best numbers.

It's good. It's good for everyone. Again, like I said, 37.5 attempts is my preferred play. It seems to be pretty FanDuel-specific. We're getting juiced out on the other books, but the 24.5 completion number is also best number on FanDuel readily available so I like both I'm going to play 37 and a half though officially for uh for subscribers um Connor floor back to you you want to give us a little bit of a week five exotic look or something that you're looking to get maybe a little bit off the

board with yeah I think that David Montgomery is going to go absolutely bananas. Like, I don't know if that was so unfortunately it opened at 65, got juiced like basically within five minutes. You know, Newton asked, we want to play it officially. We are, you know, man of the people. We were trying to wait for more outs, try to wait for more liquidity and we lost it. You know, I mean, it's, it's up to 70 at this point. Now that being said, I still think that Alts are very much in play here. He draws like could not get a better matchup. You're 11-point favorites against the Panthers. The Panthers' run defense right now, not very good at all. Right now, dead last to run to EPA, DVOA, second worst in success rate,

allowing 4.94 yards per carry to opposing running backs so far. As we saw on Thursday night a couple weeks ago, David Montgomery saw 32 carries. Like, if they're winning, if it's one of those pound-the-rock games, David Montgomery's going to see, like, 25, 30 carries. So, I mean, if he sees that workload against this run defense, like, the sky's the limit. I'm not saying he's going to break an NFL record, but, I mean, he's going to be ripping off chunks of 7, 8 yards

basically every carry. And now we might not have Amonoth in this game um i don't think he's been ruled out but i don't think he practiced again today so that's not trending very well typically if you're not practicing at least even in limited uh you know limited rate there on friday you're probably not playing in this football game so yeah and you can run all over carolina so yeah i love it i think we did the right thing. We weren't sure kind of, we both had that on our short list and it was like, all right, it's, there just wasn't, you know, early week on a Wednesday. Typically sometimes books will limit people. So we wanted to make sure that we can do the right thing, but Hey, a lot of people were on it too. Not everyone

plays by the same rules. I understand why I moved out to what it did, but, uh, it's still like the look on the alts. Uh, slop, what are we doing you last week you were on it man you were on the houston passing game people weren't here slop was all over everything nico collins nico collins went off uh this is like the slot portion of the show he has been just kind of in his mode here uh he basically in this portion bowls a 300 so uh buckle up i'm excited to see what he's got for us here i wish i wish the 300 ryan is right there bro right there hey next week but um if you're looking to get a little bit loose on a receiver in the uh the alt markets how about marquise brown for the Cardinals? They got the Bengals. I'm going to get Vandal's numbers up for him,

but you could do 60-plus at, I think it's like plus 114, 70-plus, plus 174, 80-plus, plus 240. If you want to get a little higher than that, that's fine. I think he's got it in him. I bet you the Bengals show up. I mean, they're 1-3. It's fine. I think he's got it in him. I bet you the Bengals show up. I mean, they're one and three. It's time. So if they start hanging points on the Cardinals, there's really not many options to move the ball for them other than like Marquise Brown, really, through the air at least. I mean,

Zach Ertz is nice and all, but he's kind of a catch it and fall down right there guy. Whereas, you know, Brown, you got run out to the catch, stuff like that. Dobbs likes him. He gets targeted quite a bit. I mean, he's probably having the quietest, decent receiver season. I mean, went for 96 yards last week against the 49ers. Not easy. It's a good defense.

The Bengals, I'm not saying they're bad, but they're not the 49ers. So there is that. He's at home. I i mean he caught five balls for 61 yards against dallas i mean that's not a bad game there so i don't know i think if they can just if they trail in this game that dude is probably going to approach 100 yards so there is that and even if they don't you're safe at 60 so i'd say start at 60 build your position there and then get loose as you want after that i like it i mean we talked about it connor on wednesday like josh dobbs is like eighth and adjusted completion percentage he's not turning the football over like they're playing

some good football they deserve credit and he is the man there like michael wilson's kind of emerging a little bit like rondell moore will do stuff. But it's still very much Hollywood Brown. And if there's an explosion game on the Arizona passing game, it's definitely Hollywood Brown. Yeah, it's interesting because they're just not the cakewalk team that we thought coming into the year. So I don't know. I really, like, think that the Alts are an interesting spot potentially

to kind of attack this because there is still some volatility. It's still Josh Dobbs. It's still working Marquise Brown. So I think that the Alts are probably the way to go. But at the same time, like you said, Josh Dobbs played so, so well. Yeah. You know what? One more thing.

Yeah. What I might do with this is wait until the game starts and then play it from there. Does that make sense? Like see what the Bengals show up and do. Basically, what you want to do is wait until you see Winston Kointos and hope that the Bengals

get the ball first. That's pretty much it. Get them ahead. Once they get ahead, we'll see what happens. I think the Cardinals try and sit on the ball. That's our issue. If the Bengals do play with the lead, now we're cooking. Barun, on the injury report, which I guess

is as positive news as we've seen. Yeah, we'll see. It definitely feels like the last shot for the Bengals at this point. We're going to be taking them serious at any point. You have to take advantage of the game against Arizona, even though they're

exceeding our expectations. The Bengals should be able to take care of that one. And Hey, that number's moved massively, right? We were like seven and a half and the look aheads came back out at six. It's got steamed down to like the three who knows where that moves here by the time kickoff comes. So my exotic,

I don't, I don't even know what the best way to do it. This is, there's so many ways that I want to get access to Christian McCaffrey going absolutely bananas, which is basically just a weekly occurrence. Like it just is kind of what he does. So again, FanDuel, great numbers. We appreciate it.

They have over 17 and a half carries. I don't know why it's still 17 and a half carries. I can't play it right now really officially for people because like there's like an 18 and a half at a couple spots. It's not readily available. 17 and a half. I know Connor took advantage of FanDuel. Christian McCaffrey carries number last week. FanDuel continues to be generous there. That feels light. We don't know about Elijah Mitchell, but again, not practicing. So doesn't look good. And in this game, that's going to probably matter for the NFC playoff pitcher. This is not the time for Kyle Shanahan to suddenly start layering in these ancillary running backs. This is going to be Christian McCaffrey. Last time

when they met in the playoffs, McCaffrey only had 10 carries. Elijah Mitchell had 13. So like, that's not happening here. There's a bunch of carries going to Christian McCaffrey and he is going to explode. So you could also get longest rush on DraftKings over 16 and a half. Love that look. And actually it's how you can really beat the Cowboys. They're averaging 4.6 yards per attempt against them. Sixth highest rate in the league. They've also allowed the sixth highest rate of 15 plus yard runs in the league too. So they're playing good football defensively, but you can't run against this team. So on DraftKings, you can ladder this like crazy. 80, you can get in at plus 100. You go all the way down to 120-plus to plus 550.

100-plus is like plus 245. It's the best in the market, unfortunately, laddering on DraftKings there. So I'm going to do a little bit of all of it. I think he has a great, great game. Yeah, I mean, I wish I could get like a 150-plus number because I think that's in the cards too. He's like minus 175 to score a touchdown. It's just never a bet that I would make.

But he scored like 14 straight games. But, yeah, I love McCaffrey here. Connor, any thoughts on this great game on Sunday night? Yeah, I think weaffrey here. Connor, any thoughts on this great game on Sunday night? Yeah, I think we saw too, like week one, the Giants on their first drive were running the ball actually really well against the Cowboys, which, you know, obviously got blown out pretty quickly. But the Cardinals and their win, I bet a James Connor under and that was like dead on arrival. I mean, that was like first drive. They were going to open up big holes, like they were moving their guards and they're pulling players correctly and it was just opening up like gaping holes and so i think that kyle shannon is sharp enough to know that that's exactly what

they need to be doing they've definitely figured out like you know how to open up christian mccaffrey in the running game there so it wouldn't surprise me to see them go run heavy here uh depending on elijah mitchell's status too like i think you'll probably see is he out i didn't see the final practice oh yeah i haven't seen anything so he's out then yeah i mean he's already banged up anyway so yeah like they already shannon already seemed kind of reluctant to mix in elijah mitchell anyways it was kind of like yeah i probably shouldn't give this guy like 25 carries a game like let's just put in elijah mitchell like if we have a lead or if we don't really need you know maybe some thumper plays but like last week he's like i don't care like we're just running mccaffrey out there 20 plus times and won't even matter so yeah i think that

that's an interesting way to play it um and also a tip on fan duel like they're so their carries are always like different than like draft kings and caesars and mgm so they're almost always like an outlier. And so like last week, like Newton said, I posted in our Discord too, like they were hanging a 15 and a half carry mark. And that was after Elijah Mitchell was injured. So like, I mean, it was minus 150, but that's like almost free money

as long as he doesn't get hurt. Like they run the ball 20 times, he's getting at least 16, 17 carries. So yeah, I don't know. I think that's just a tip there too, like to take advantage of. Again, we can't really release that stuff. Like solo book out off market lines

are going to last 10 seconds, but I'll post them in our Discord a bunch more so that way some people can get on them like me. Yeah, it's worth taking advantage of yourself. You know, we are cognizant of making sure that we can extend stuff for our people because we take care of the people that take care of us. So we want to make sure we share that stuff. But yeah, it's hard to push that out to the masses because, you know, the DGNs that are in there like elbow to elbow with us the whole

time, they get to take advantage and clean up on that stuff. So yeah, I love that game. Slop, any thoughts on San Fran Dallas or McCaffrey in particular? That's a tough one. I wouldn't mess with San Fran's pass game. So, obviously, the run game is where you want to go. So that's pretty much the only way I'd touch that. All right, Connor, back to you. Back to your basic props here. Yeah, I'm going to break Slop's heart here, but I think the listeners will like this one.

So I'm going to go with Miles Sanders under 40 and a half rushing yards. The juice on this is a little bit weird. So if you can't get it right at like minus 110, minus 120, which is where it is at in most spots, just wait. You probably get a 39 and a half, 38 and a half. The under there is a good look as well. I mean, the reality is Sanders is hurt. He's playing like shit. He's averaging like 2.9 yards per carry. He's like bottom, he's like 40th or something like that in success rate. I mean, honestly, he's just not playing well. The Panthers offensive line isn't playing well. He saw a season low in snaps last week.

Chuba Hubbard outplayed him. And now they get a tough matchup. Like Detroit's defense legit is, you know, second in success rate against run defense. Like they're just shutting down opposing backs. And they're 11 and a half point underdogs. So they fall behind. They're probably not going to be running with Sanders. Like they're just shutting down opposing backs and they're 11 and F one underdog. So they fall behind. They're probably not gonna be running with Sanders.

Like he's playing poorly. Chuba Hubbard is going to see more work. He's not fully healthy. Chuba Hubbard is going to see more work. Like there's so many outs for this one that, you know, like it's really just surprising that like that this number is this high. Honestly,

I thought we were going to get like 32, 33. I just don't see it with Sanders unless he comes back fully healthy. He's been limited all week in practice. So, I don't know. I really think that this under here is a great look for Sanders. Slop, part of you died inside when that went up. Yeah, as soon as the way he lost me when he said under.

I didn't hear a word after that. I was like, oh, man, this is disgusting. He said 40 and a half after it too for running back so yeah he loves going low like that too like you you live on the edge that jared mckinnon under 10 and a half was a sweat last week that yeah i mean that is that is just absolute insanity to do. That is something else, man. Yeah, we're sitting there with seven yards, and there's literally a minute and a half, two minutes left in the game. They need to snap the ball, and they're going to run one more play. And for some reason, Isaiah Pacheco is not on the field.

You have Jarek McKinnon on the field, and they have to run. They almost certainly are going to run the ball. So I'm sitting there sweating. He motions out, and I'm going wild. I'm like, oh, thank God. He's not going to get the carry. I think I'm like sitting there sweating. He like motions out and I'm like going wild. I'm like, oh, thank God. He's not going to get the carry. I think that they like ran something else. They swung someone to the backfield.

It was, I mean, a gift. But I don't even know why he was on the field. Why are you running him in the ground at the end of the game? Like it made no sense. So still we got there. We won. But, yeah, it was not a very enjoyable sweat. I'm not going to lie. Yeah, he loves like the quarterbacks.

You know, Davis Mills, Davis Mills' rookie year, Connor, like consistently banged, like, under 159.5 passing yards. Oh, my God. Just the stuff that, like, absolute brutal sweats. You know, Zach Wilson's of the world. Those are Connor Allen specials. You a big rollercoaster guy, Connor? No, I actually hate them.

I actually hate them i actually i actually like hate i hate roller coasters um bungee jumping you ever watch final destination slop no is it awesome don't don't no i mean if you like roller coasters just don't watch it uh slop four is your sort uh last one that you have here on the board for us. All right. So I've been waiting all day for this. I don't know if you guys noticed this, but FanDuel has alt receptions now. So before it was just Bet365, but they – I'm not a big Bet365 guy.

They're not even available in Massachusetts anyway, so there's that. But I loved how they had 3+, 4+, 5+, just because sometimes you get 3.5s at minus 160, and you're like, man, if that was 5, I'd take it. But I'm not betting 4 receptions minus 160. We have that today. We have Wondell Robinson all day long for the Giants. He was at 3.5. He was at 3.5 minus 125 at BetMGM, and then everywhere else was a lot higher. So then later on, I checked. It was 3.5 minus 160 pretty much everywhere, in that range at least. FanDuel now has 4.5.

It's not the alt line that I was hoping for, but we don't need it. Plus 120 for Wandel Robinson's receptions. I think he does that in the first half. I think the Giants are going to get their asses kicked from the second they get off the bus. So this is a throw, throw, throw game. If you watched the game the other night, the Giants' offensive line is nonexistent. It's actually unbelievable. Let's go.

Wandale props, baby. The dog agrees. The dog loves it. The dog loves it. But, yeah, so I have no idea what's going on right now. Well, I do agree, to be fair. So last week during the Giants game, we saw them – you know the guy from PFF, Nathan, I think he's Yankee or whatever,

tweets out snaps in the first quarter in certain situations. So he tweeted out Jalen Hyatt and Wando Robinson were leading the team in snaps along with Darius Slayton, but it was expected to be Hodgins and Campbell. Cause that's what it's been the past few weeks. And so as soon as those guys were not in, like I was hitting Campbell unders, I was hitting Hyatt overs. Cause Hyatt's over was like eight and a half.

Again, FanDuel was slacking. So it was like, everywhere else was like 15 and a half, 16 and a half. Cause they were seen in play a bunch, but you know, eight and a half was available.

So Hyatt is an interesting look on some alts, I think, because obviously he didn't have a big game. But, like, he's going to be out there running a ton of routes. This Miami secondary is not very good. I think Wandale is a good look, too, because he's going to get a ton of targets. Harris Campbell under is like – I just don't know what they're going to release those at because I haven't really seen much with some of these guys.

It looks like Wandale and Slayton are out. But I want some of the ancillary guys. I want them to give us, like, a bad number on some of them. See, I liked Hyatt. It was 25 and a half or 25 plus receiving yards was like, I think it was more than two to one. I think it was like, you know, in the plus two, 204, something there. So if you watch the game, though, that offensive line is non-existent.

Like they don't block like at all like there were times where seriously like the tackle didn't get his a hand on the guy rushing the quarterback so he had no time to throw whatsoever I don't know that that happens with Miami who knows but at the same time with uh Robinson he's right by the right by the line of scrimmage like there he is you know what I mean so He's going to get check downs. He's going to get tackled in the backfield a couple times, probably after catching a ball. But, again, those are receptions.

I don't know. I have a hard time believing that he's going to catch less than five passes in a game script like we're likely to see. That just feels weird. Yeah, he went from 25 percent route participation in week three his first game of the season all the way up to 63 last week uh now like slop saying he has a average depth of target of 2.33 yards last week um so yeah i mean that's a little different like hyatt's a guy he's out there for almost as many last week to connor's point another big jump

does not see the targets but his average at the target is like, you know, week two was 37 and a half yards. Week one it was 15. So, like, he's going to be a guy that's going to hit you with a home run, you know, if he's just the way that, you know, his route tree at college was the same. He ran go routes at Tennessee, and that's how they need to use him here. So fun.

Yeah. That's all they're going to need here too, right? I mean, they're going to have to – if they can block to protect them and let Daniel Jones get the ball deep, then for sure you can get maybe an over-longest reception for Hyatt or something like that. But yeah, Wandell from a volume standpoint is definitely the path here. Ryan, 40-plus those markets because if he catches one, it is likely to be 40 plus or damn near it.

You know? Yeah. So, I mean, that's – Literally only lose one. Because the longest reception on some of those are – I mean, you're laying like 115 or something like that. And you're like, you know what? Dude, for eight more yards, it's like plus two.

You know what I'm saying? Like, they can't properly price that. You know? So, we'll see what they come out at, though. We don't even have a number yet. So, you might not be able to do it. Yeah. But at the same time, again, again we just gotta wait till we see numbers yeah it's good look it's definitely worth uh we're checking out i'm gonna go kind of in that neighborhood um there's been a lot of coach speak this week with uh with breeze hall and the jets

um i kind of buy it but in case it's not true um i'm gonna go breeze hall over 16 and a half for a longest rush um this is on draft kings you can find this on mgm it's a few other spots out there in the marketplace depending on your books um 16 and a half is his like just binary number and i i like that too especially if there is something to the we're not on a pitch count we're gonna let him loose a little bit because the broncos defense is just absolutely abysmal they are allowing the league's highest rate of explosive runs in the season uh nine and a half percent of the rushes against them uh teams are averaging almost two yards per carry before contact which is insane basically just getting a like a head by again, by far the worst in the league.

And this has kind of been Bruce Hall's MO, even the season. And even in the, against Buffalo in week one, where he was limited, you know, had a couple of splash plays today, last year in this matchup against the Broncos too.

So I think this just insulates you a little bit in case the solid stuff is, this is kind of coach speak. And we still see more Dalvin cook than we want to just again, 16 and a half. He can do a one carry. You don't have to worry about him sustaining or taking a larger market share of rushes here. So Connor, any thoughts on Brees Hall or the longest rush play? Yeah, I just penciled into,

I took a good bit of 40, 54 and a half when it opened a fan tool to like 16 and a half. Now I do think though that like the coach speak was very, very thin. I mean, like if you go back and look at the old, the whole quote, like you mentioned, like he's think, though, that the coach speak was very, very thin. I mean, if you go back and look at the whole quote like you mentioned, he's like, yeah, he doesn't have any restrictions on him or he's going to be full go. That doesn't mean that he's going to play the entire game. He's like, then we want to get a bunch of other guys the ball too,

is I think what he said right after it. He's going to play however much they want him to play. And that means that they're not limiting him. So it's like whatever they want him to play, he'll play. I think it's probably going to still be like basically what we've seen. But that being said, against his Broncos defense, I don't think that really matters. I think he's still going to get home.

And the big play potential is like massive. Yeah. Yeah. Slop, any thoughts on the Jets' backfield situation and what we heard from them this week? The only look I had was Hall 100 plus uh plus 500 but i'd need more carries for that i need to know you don't even forget we don't know that yeah i agree it's a little it's a little it did move though yesterday or the day before whatever day it was that the first number i saw

i thought was 52 and a half i think fando was first mark it could have been 54 and a half whatever it was but it was it was higher everywhere else the second they opened it and then fan duel uh adjusted really quick so there wasn't a big window but i get point is i we were not the only ones that saw that and thought it was something to look at so same premise of what we had there with the demont stuff it's like came out early if you didn't take the first action on it, you're probably leaving some yards out there for sure. So I'll be sure a few tackles, then we'll get to your questions in the chat.

So if you're hanging out with us, a bunch of you are, we greatly appreciate it. While you're here, hit that like button, hit the subscribe button and then jump in the chat. Let us know what any of your week five looks are. We'll get to those here in just a moment. I'm going to share some thoughts on tackle plays for you this week. We don't have a ton.

Well, you know, this is what typically happens, is they start to release them while we're on the show. It's been very, very frustrating. Makes for a very, very busy couple hours immediately after the show, but that's okay. I had one that was going to be a show play, but it came out, and I thought it was going to move, so I had to give out Aziz Al-Shahir, the linebacker for Tennessee,

over 7.5. We already played that. It maybe even moves to 8.5. Take a juice play. Liked that one quite a bit. I got two safeties that I'm looking at this week. Minka Fitzpatrick, safety for Pittsburgh, to name the people. No, even if you're not a tackle grinder.

He cashed over 5 a half for us last week in the first half against the Texans. Always feels good to cash a tackle prop in the first half. We're going to go back to the well. Tackle rate is up this season for Minka. Even with the conservative projection here, I got him at like 7.9. So even if he moves to six and a half,

we might get some plus money. That'd be great. He has at least nine in three of the past four matchups against Baltimore. And when you think about how Baltimore likes to play, they run the football a ton and they love to throw over the middle. That bodes really well for safety. So historically, Pittsburgh is the most generous scorekeeping situation in the league. Steelers home games average 52.8 assists per game.

That is nearly nine more than the league average. Again, if this is new to you, tackles are subjective. The scorekeeper dictates whether that's a solo tackle or an assisted tackle between two guys. And Pittsburgh is a place that is more likely to not than be like two guys get to share that one. And in the tackle and assist game, they all count the same

there's no such thing as a half tackle or anything like that so uh we like assists when we're betting the tackles and assist combine number um also von bell uh safety now for carolina uh since moving over to carolina from cincinnati he's playing a ton of box snaps for the panthers and they're basically running with one linebacker in the field now with shaq thompson injured so bell is basically like a pseudo uh they run a lot of like three safety stuff and Vaughn Bell's kind of like a pseudo linebacker there he's got six seven and nine tackles in the past three games last week he was posted at four and a half at plus 105 so even if he's kind of in that range again maybe moves to like minus 115 like it and it's a great spot. We already talked about David Montgomery.

Detroit skews run heavy. They're going to skew even more run heavy here if we don't have Amon Ra and a good spot here for Von Bell to continue to pile up some tackles. So those are two looks for me that I'm going to be watching closely here, and I'll be pushing those plays out as soon as we get them. Looks like Sam C said that Fitz is plus 114 over six and a half on dk right now uh as we're talking and i just checked it's it's already down to plus 100 six and a half thoughts yeah i mean i haven't 7.9 so we like we like that play i bet it i bet it i was betting

while you're talking so you know why us? Why not us, baby? Yeah. Minka Fitzpatrick is a good look for sure. So yeah, prefer to get those a little bit after the fact, but we'll take them. This is again, like I said, very annoying. We hit record 35 minutes ago. These are not there. I spent an insane amount of hours trying to get ready for them and they come out while we're doing the show. So, yeah, play make it Fitzpatrick if you can. I'm going to try to do it right now. That's fair. You want me to answer some questions here while you're betting this?

Yeah, you know, I started some. If you want to start to see if anyone else has asked any, and, yeah, let's get it moving. Yeah. So, all right, we got one off the top here from Ben Carey, Capwise, Judy Season, Jerry Judy Season. Slop, any take on the Broncos receivers here against the Jets? It looks like DJ Reed is out, which is kind of unfortunate.

I played a Corlin Sutton under, and it looks like that is not going to be as good because he plays predominantly outside. DJ Reed and Sauce Gardner both outside corners, so I thought that would be pretty strong there, but I still think that it'll see a good amount of sauce most likely. So any take on any of the Broncos wideouts, Marvin Mims didn't see a snap rate increase, but I stay away from those guys.

Yeah. I bet Marvin Mims over last week. And that was, I mean, it was really thin by the time we got there. Cause he didn't, he didn't, he got there, but like, he didn't play more snaps. He played like, I mean, three, four more. He's got one bomb at the end. Oh, yeah. Yeah, we got really lucky. It was – I was with some people too who were like,

oh, what should we bet on today? I was like, well, I'm betting Marvin Mims right now, and I look like a total idiot for like three quarters. And then we connect on one bomb, and they're like, I think I'm a genius. So that's how gambling goes. But that was a good one there. Yeah. We're going Minka Fitzpatrick over six and a half tackles? Yeah, we're going Minka Fitzpatrick over six and a half.

Best I can see right now is, well, I'm looking at – Minus 105, right, DraftKings? Seeing plus 110 on MGM if you can get that. I can get it. They'll only let me bet like five. That's the same. That's FanDuel for some. I mean, DraftKings for some, MGM for some.

I'm back on DraftKings for whatever reason. Caesars 108 plus 108. Oh, Caesars. That's good. Thank you, whoever said that. Love that. Keep answering questions. You're doing great, Connor.

Go for it. We had someone say, too, Slop, I'm here for the unders. Don't tell Slop. Sorry, Anders 190. But, you know, I had to break it to him. 90. I remember that name. I'll never forget it.

Come on. What are you doing with your life, K. Anders, 90? Let's see. We've got a couple other ones. Monty, over 15.5 attempts, dropped while we were talking. So compared to his line, his rushing yard line, which is 74, 3.5 at this point, pretty widely available. Talking about 4.65 yards per carry to go over that at 16 carries.

I almost prefer the carries, honestly. I think the carries there is like – I mean, the issue where that gets thin is kind of like Brian Robinson. Like everyone loved Brian Robinson last week. It was like – or last night. It was like the chalkiest play in the world. And honestly, I lean that way too. But the rushing yard number got up like mid to high 60s.

The rushing attempts market moved up. And then they fell behind early and you're just like totally toast. Like you have, they didn't pass the ball or they didn't run the ball a single time in second half. They didn't have a single design run. Uh,

which is wild. Yeah. I mean, that's wild. So again, that probably got home on that. Yeah. That,

that TJ, uh, Edwards, uh, tackle sweats, uh, to be able to get, get over eight and a half with no running back carries is a,

a feat that I will not soon forget. It's better to have a DJ more 60 plus receiving yards. And it was done before I even left the house to go bowling. This sucks. Like what are we supposed to do now? Relax, buddy. Four quarter game. Kyle Baker, can anyone explain Adam Thielen's line being 51-and-a-half again? Bryce Young.

Yeah, pretty simple explanation, I think. Detroit secondary played pretty well so far, to be honest, as well. I think they're eighth in past DVOA. Adam Thielen feeling despite putting up a lot of stats i still don't think is very good so uh you know they just designed a little place for me it's the only like competent receiver somewhat competent receiver on their you know team so it's not like i'm betting the under but uh i don't know if i love betting dealing overs at like 51 and a half yeah it's just like they've had some really bad play volume in non-dalton games which just makes

it really tough too and if we get in a spot where you just you have demont doing the things that we think he might do here i just it gets really tough for feeling to just kind of still at this point it has to get there in volume i think the volumes exceeded our expectations but partially because no one else is you know exciting there at this point. Like no one's really stepped up with some of the young guys. So yeah, you're going to need, you know, five, six receptions there. And that's, that's pretty tough. I will say that, you know, the line secondary is pretty thin too.

It looks like Brian Branch isn't playing here. They're already down, you know, Chauncey Gardner Johnson, like they're, they're having some, you know, some issues there. So in the slot might not be a bad place for Thielen. But, yeah, not a play I have a ton of conviction in. Yeah, that's fair. And then also Olave, 59.5, stands out. So I do want to note here that – so our breakout model,

which basically analyzes receiver, like expected receiver usage, and then predicts who underperformed and then should basically regress to the mean the following week or coming weeks. Last week, A.J. Brown was our number one candidate and absolutely popped off. This week, Chris Olave is our number one candidate. Now, the major asterisk is Chris Olave's quarterback, Derek Carr,

and whether he's healthy because it just might not matter if Derek Carr is like limp-dicking it out there again. Like, for lack of better terms, it was brutal. Yeah. How many catches did Kamara have? 13. Yeah. For 33 yards.

What are we doing, man? He's plus money over four and a half receptions. I know. That's fun. Again. That looks – That's, you know, there's – we've kind of learned our lesson with a handful of

years we've been doing this connor with running back receptions and how uh dangerous they can be they change quick that's you know that's a tough one but again like there's there's some uh some appeal to that to me but yeah that's uh that's interesting i like this cody m guy connor this is my kind of guy right here you see his this is on the list for me for sure i want to But, yeah, that's interesting. I like this Cody M guy, Connor. This is my kind of guy right here. You see his? This is on the list for me for sure. I want to get your guys' thoughts.

I think it maybe pops on some of the other. Yeah, but Devon A-chain or A-chan or whatever we're saying nowadays. I mean, in a game against whatever's going on with the Giants, whatever you think is going on with the distribution of running back carries there, it doesn't seem to matter. This kid is absolutely explosive and is in a spot where even if he's getting eight to 10 carries, he could absolutely go berserk. So a hundred plus yards, six to one is nuts. I have them on the list for ladders.

I think, you know, if that's kind of a way you like to play, that would be the way to play this guy personally versus just the binary prop. Thoughts there, Connor? Totally agree. Also, too, it's worth noting, so A-Chan wasn't seeing a ton of work early, and then Raheem Mossard fumbled twice. So only one of those shows in the stat sheet because he only lost one of them,

but he fumbled twice before half. Then HN started the second half and saw the first, the entire first drive that Raheem Mostert just sprinkled in, but there was like a heavier dose of HN. Then they come out after the game and they're like, yeah, let's use the ball or we're going to give me more work. So like, I don't know if we're going to see 75% HN, but that was like something that I think has gone under the radar.

What if we're going to see 75% A-chain, but that was like something that I think has gone under the radar. What if we did? That would be so fun to have 100-plus plus 600 on the day that we find out A-chain's the guy. Do you know what I mean? It would be like having Ronnie Brown's number the day they went to the Wildcat. Do you know what I'm saying? Remember that? That would be like the perfect day to have him on your team

or have like some wild, you know, ladder move. So that could happen. I'm just saying. Like I bet you that kid gets more time. That coach in Miami, like he's not like the others. Like he'll just make the move. He don't give a shit. Like he's like, what's better?

Okay, let's go with that. Like he's not – he doesn't seem to have that old school mentality of, you know, like – It wouldn't surprise me. He doesn't have to lose his job. Like, he just lost it already. It's over. This guy's better.

Right. Like, I wouldn't – And Mostert's actually been good. Mostert's been good. I'm not saying he's bad. I'm saying this guy's just better. No, I know. I agree.

You know what I mean? Yeah. Yeah, 100%. Yeah. Sorry, Connor. Stopped on you. No, I was going to say, like, Jeff Wilson could very easily take Raheem Mostert's spot as, like, the 1B or even, even like clear two with A-Chan as the number one going forward.

Whenever Jeff Wilson is alive. So what are we calling this kid? It's A-Chan? I thought it was A-Chan. A-Chan? A-Chan. Yeah. That's what he like clarified and went out of his way to say like everyone needs to call me Devin A-Chan.

A-Chan. Okay. My bad, Devin. I said A-Chan. No more. A-Chan. Yeah. Devinin i know you're watching the show so you know really call you whatever the hell you want yeah i mean the kid is is electric i think regardless of what happens in that backfields he he'll have a role like the way that they're using him they're using him in like just you know jet sweep stuff um you know

the little bubble action um you know, the orbit motion action. Like he's going to have a role no matter who ends up being the guy, whether it's, you know, Mostert or Wilson or whatever's going on there. And what if the Dolphins score a thousand points again? Like that's on the table. So their team total is 30 and a half. Their team total is 30 and a half. That's what the Giants are averaging giving up this season.

It's insane. That's a joke. Yeah. So, yeah, I mean, that's an interesting play. Miami team total over. But, yeah, I think that there's a lot to like about that game. And I can't really see a spot where that game is getting pushed. You know, Miami is getting challenged.

All of a sudden, like, it's a high volume two a game in the second half there. I can't envision a way that that goes. All right, Connor, what else did we miss today? Looks like we are mostly caught up here. We got Ben again. Dalton Kincaid over 20 and a half receiving yards and ETN under 65 and a half rushing yards. Thoughts?

For me, Dalton Kincaid, I'm considering a Dawson Knox under because I think Dalton has seen like more and more work. Um, so I think that that could be interesting, but I haven't like played or anything. Any, any takes on, on Kincaid Noonan? Not a lot. I mean, it's the ADOT's so bad. Um, you know, you just want them to, you know, be used a little bit more. Let me look and see if, you see if I want to get a sense here if there's any usage that I'm missing here on Kikade. I mean, I want him to be something that he's not.

And at a certain point, you have to adjust based off of what we're seeing here. I mean, all right, the route participation was nice last week. 79%, that's the highest of the season. Targeted on 17% of those routes. It's great. Still an average at the target of four oh he's just you know reception guy yeah they're usually like you know he's cole beasley or isaiah mckenzie like i don't know yeah that's just not great

what's the number connor on knox that you like his number has to be like sub 20, and you're talking under. It's 17 and a half. Yeah, he is. He is like 10, 11, and like eight receiving yards the last three weeks. I mean, he's just like out there blocking. He's out there running a couple of routes, like a couple of curl routes that are like a couple of yards. I mean, he's going to get two targets.

It's always my nightmare, though, watching it. Everything's going great. Like, it's just so fun. Betcher just winning, cashing everywhere. And then all of a sudden, Dawson Knox slips out. Guy falls down. He catches the ball for like 22 yards. That's it for him.

That's all he does all day. I lose. And, yeah, that's my under story. That's what happens. So it did happen to me last year in Baker's first star with the rams i bet van jefferson under like 40 receiving yards or something like that and and baker's under and literally on the last play of the game he threw a 30-yard touchdown to van jefferson to win the game and i lost both my unders um i'm not a big like quit gambling advocate but man that would

quit gambling i mean this sucks it's tough too make me think about quitting gambling. I'd be like, this sucks. It's tough, too, because I was already kind of in a break-even stage of the year anyways. And those last play losses are not kind to the thoughts there. But any thoughts on ETN there, 65 and a half rushing yards? I kind of leaned it over because the explosive, the Bills have been getting a lot of explosive runs. But he hasn't been explosive like this year, like that much. So that's kind of my issue.

Cam Robinson back. I think that helps their offensive line. That's a big, that's a big piece for them. You know, that would be part of the, the cap for me there, but yeah,

he hasn't been explosive. They've been terrible. You know, I think they're last in league in expected, like raw, total expected points added on the ground so far. it's been a bad rushing offense overall he has not been very good in the offensive line has not been good so and it's part of it's just this play caller like this you know they need to get it back to uh dougie p here because this uh this press taylor kid seems

to um seems to be in over his head a little bit maybe. I don't know. It's nice that he's getting this chance. It just isn't the same Jacksonville offense that we saw last year. I think we all thought coming into the year when we were handicapping Jacksonville that it was like, all right, the offense is going to be awesome. They were really good last year. They were top 10 in basically any meaningful metric. You have an ascending young quarterback. They add Calvin Ridley.

They add another layer with Tank Bigsby like all of a sudden they're like pieces are in play here the defense is going to be a spot where like hey they might even push them to be in a spot where they have to keep up and defense has played a little bit better and the offense has been kind of holding back so it's only four weeks but i'm i'm with you like i i want to see a little bit more first so i think he looks good if you watch the game like he looks like it's like, get this dude in space. Now we're talking. But he's never in space, ever.

Yeah. So it's like, all right, well, that's not great. But no, I'm with you. I'm scared to play that guy. Yeah, and then any time Tank Bigsby touches the ball, it's like the announcer is just going to fall hard on them. They're like, they don't call this guy Tank for nothing like that they said that multiple times last week i'm like oh god you know it's just i'm sure the coaches are thinking the same thing too so um we also have one here

gibbs listed as questionable demon carries i mean yeah i'm gonna see if that's widely available because that just might be a play uh here pretty soon yeah let's see where that uh where that is i'm gonna uh i'm gonna give another tackle play here because oh you're firing live here is this four plays on air for you this is yes we're firing we're gonna fire live um i'm gonna have a little bit of an abbreviated write up for the people um we'll do a little bit later but i want to get it out to uh to people while we uh while we're here because um i don't know smart people are also doing this a little bit and uh you know i want to make sure we we take advantage and hey i want to reward the people that are hanging out with us and listen live too you guys are awesome so um you just push it out to subscribers here

love it um we i'll filibuster here while you're you know typing that up christian watson slop any thoughts on him 37 yards i might be another like 50 plus or nothing right all right so that game's monday right yeah you're not even thinking about that yet i can't think about monday right it's friday burger night at my house, probably an hour away from my first beer of the week, and now we're talking Monday. Come on. Just relax.

That's what Monday morning's for. First of all, you've got to figure out how much you need to make on the Monday night game to get square again. We don't even know that yet. The weekend hasn't even happened. Also, too, though, we don't know if that yet I mean the weekend hasn't even happened but uh also too though like we don't know if Garoppolo plays that's gonna get interesting you know like so if Garoppolo's back he's not awful like but he's not great at the same time but he they might

be able to move the ball like we might get to a situation where you might need points and if that's the case and if we get news that Watson is like fully back integrated into offense, 37 is a low bar. But again, a lot has to happen. We got the whole weekend. All right, this is a really good number. I like quite a bit. Let me bring up what I have here on Roquan Smith. We're going to play Roquan smith over eight and a half

tackles and assists uh plus 104 on caesars this looks like it's plus money um looks drop king just moved to minus 110 um plus 100 on uh mgm that's out there i haven't looked at barstool 365 probably have these as well uh but yeah really i really, I mean, Patrick Queen's been in the news with what's going on there. If you guys haven't seen that, Google Patrick Queen and what's going on with Pittsburgh there. Apparently he was told that he's not a Raven by the Steelers head coach a couple years ago.

But, anyway, Roquan's probably the best linebacker in football um tackle wise you know maybe Fred Warner's maybe a little bit better in coverage I got Roquan at nine and a half here like 9.59 in this matchup um absolutely love this spot again talked about already about Pittsburgh with Minka like the assist thing and the scorekeeper is generous it goes both ways you know we've we've been uh the only time Roquan's lost or fell short of this this season was that game against Cincinnati where the Bengals only had like 15 first-half snaps. Otherwise, Roquan has been absolutely cooking.

He's a stud. He had 11 last week. Let me go through it here. You know, I think week three was the week we played him. No, week three he had 13. Week two was the week that we played him and he fell one short uh he had a monster game i believe in week one um against the uh against the texans where he just went berserk because yeah 15 so yeah that's kind of what he does uh 15 13 and uh 11

outside of the one stinker so we're getting eight and a half at plus money in the most generous spot for scorekeepers in the entire league. Absolutely love the spot. And yeah, that's still out there on Caesar. So Roquan eight and a half. I thought we'd get maybe nine and a half. I'd still maybe consider it, but yeah, fire comfortably eight and a half plus money. I just bet that, you know what I just saw though?

I left Minka up at draft kings i left that screen up i went to caesars instead he's now minus 140 at draft kings oh yeah that's um that's dead in the water it's typically how this goes um yeah yeah i try my best to give people a notification that a play is coming so they can go through their two-factor, get on their apps, get ready to go. I give them the team for the most part. People like to guess who the play is going to be, and then we play. That's the best way for us to get down, many people to get down as possible. So, Connor, are you finding any –

I'm still a little bit limited, Ryan. Yeah, I know. Caesars is great, though. That's why only at limited, Ryan. Yeah, I know. Caesars is great though. That's why Caesars is fun. No, they are. Them and FanDuel are my go-tos. We need FanDuel. Fanatics too.

In Massachusetts, surprisingly enough, Fanatics has not – Yeah, and Wynn. But Wynn's only in states where they have a physical presence now. So unless you're in Massachusetts or I guess Vegas, Nevada. So that's it. Yeah. Our win experience, Connor, was not fantastic. Yeah.

I don't know very many. They put you off? They limited you? Oh, no. Far worse. Far worse. Oh, okay. Yeah.

You know, it was one of those where we had to deal with them and a lot was promised and very little was delivered. And we were asked to promote a just truly terrible. And I mean, honestly, from the bottom of our terrible product, you know, that's like the worst odds, you know, jumble cluster fuck I've ever seen. So, yeah, not a whole lot to say about them. But, hey, money's green.

Their home run numbers are their home run numbers are just so off it's not even funny so i keep him in my um in the rolodex just for that because like you'll look at them fan duel rivals them because fan duel the thing is if they'll put lines out but if the guy's in the lineup he's still in if uh let's say he's let's say he's listed not in the lineup but he pinch hits later. Let's say he's listed not in the lineup, but he pinch hits later. That counts. So your bet's live. Everywhere else, void, right?

So that's why FanDuel's lines are a little bit higher. Well, Wynn will come out at the same thing. It's literally the same thing, or sometimes even better. You're just like, what are you doing? How are you this far off? We're talking like plus 550. Everybody else is plus 350. Stuff like that.

I do respect Wynn for that. Thank you, Wynn, for that. That just sounds like they're donating to your bank account. That seems like a charity. Yeah, but whatever. I take all donations, Connor. Yeah, I'm not saying I'm above that. Yeah, I'll take whatever.

If anybody wants to give me something, I'll take it. People don't love Rivers. I play – Rivers gets a ton of my golf action because Rivers has awesome lines. Outrights, matchups, they offer a very specific each-way bet that's not available everywhere. So, yeah, I mean, hey, if it's a crap book but it's good for one thing, keep it. We talked about it. Yeah, you should have as many outs as possible if you have access to the site to have a little bit in there and just you never know i will never

understand if vandal sponsors listen that's just earmuffet but i every book you can't just be a vandal guy or a draft kings guy you know i'm saying like those might be your go-to's you know i'm saying the ones that you'll go to first if you're in a bond you got to get something quick maybe that's maybe that but i'll be honest with you every single book you could possibly get even the illegal ones get them do you know what i mean just because you never know what if they had the best line what are you supposed to do i see you boyden in the chat um you know that's for everyone i mean i you know sometimes i can get pennies down on draftkings sometimes i'm a 968 guy on betmgm steve yeah it's all a lot of fun i think it's 967 though i think is what they'll give yeah rare stinks but hey whatever you you can get down with it it's just for golf you know you know

golf all rights are smaller units because of the nature of you're betting on 70 to 1 golf all rights. So if they want to take my $50, $60, then they'll take it. I'll give it to them. Those are going to lose more times than not, so they're happy to take that action. So not typically an NFL book that we push a lot. But, yeah, like I said, you can find it for one thing. You need home run props on one book, and you can get that. Take advantage of it. Have access to as You need, you know, home run props on one book, and you can get that. Take advantage of it.

Have access to as many things as you possibly, possibly can. Connor, did we find a readily available Monty number on the – on carries for us to play? Yeah. In fact, it actually got pulled. Montgomery Rush Times off DK. Shout out to you guys, you know, a bunch of animals. Maybe we shouldn't have said anything.

We should have just slow played it and then released it. But, hey, you know, shout out to the guys in the chat bunch of animals uh maybe we shouldn't have said anything we should have just slow played it and then released it but hey you know shout out to the guys in the chat i think it's a fantastic play so something pops up 15 and a half probably hit that um you know again but seems like we might not get that again and then kyle baker brought something up here i thought it was pretty interesting only two props are profitable this season if you've taken them in every game rushing yard unders and passing completion overs i saw i think it's ben brown from pff tweeted this out. Like he like tracks every single bet. I don't know if he uses closing line.

I don't know what book he uses. Obviously that's pretty important to whether it's closing versus opening, et cetera, et cetera. But yeah, I don't think that blindly betting any in season prop category is wise, just to be honest. But I think it does show like where the market stands.

You know what I mean? Why would you do that? It's good. Every time I see a tweet, if you bet this every time, why would you do that? Thanks, but at the same time, I don't need to know any of this shit.

I'm not that smart to begin with. I can't have useless information. I just need stuff I need. That's a good point we're just gonna bang unders on every you know every player like think about that like yeah right like seriously like we're just gonna just take all the unders on this like no yeah like no one does that i don't think yeah it's shifted connor though right like you look a couple years ago like it was skewed massively to unders in a big way and I think it has shifted a little bit so yeah the trend I guess uh but yeah not uh not actionable definitely uh you know more descriptive data but not necessarily specific

so yeah but hey good for Ben we appreciate I like his work and uh we've had Ben on the show in years past and he's a good dude so shout shout out to Ben. And shout out to Slop and Odds Jam. Slop, good stuff as always. Tell the people where they can find all your stuff this week, buddy. Oddsjam.com. The pricing tools that are just second to none. Free two weeks. Promo code Slop.

Dead serious. Go hit the button. Find me on YouTube too. I'll hit the button with you. I'll show you how to do it. It's very simple. But if you're a busy dude you want to get the best price guess what that's the only way to do it i love it definitely check that out find them on twitter at slop rules uh if you like some of the stuff from connor and myself you want some more of the tackle stuff

i promise over the next hour next two hours there's gonna be at least four or five more tackle props i've already scanned i've already seen some numbers i already know where we're stuff i promise over the next hour next two hours there's gonna be at least four or five more tackle props i've already scanned i've already seen some numbers i already know where we're going um four for four dot com slash plans use promo code prop drop it's already discounted the prop drop promo code gets you another 25 off fantastic deal takes you through the uh through the super bowl through until like the end of february so uh good stuff so appreciate it as always connor enjoy the wedding um travel safely try not to be uh too hung over for uh although we're not doing a sunday morning show this year so you can be as hung over as you

want who cares yeah do your thing saturday wedding last year we would do you know a sunday morning show so you know i'd have to have have to have Connor a little bit lucid. Slightly coherent. This year, go get it, buddy. And I wasn't even slightly coherent. Most of the time I'd roll in just wrecked. Yeah, you're in those weddings, so yeah, go get it. And be somebody, buddy.

Bought a nice bottle of Angel's Envy, getting some good drinks in here tonight, tomorrow morning, all day tomorrow. It's going to be a good day to be great. Here's a good recommendation for you. Get all the bets in first before that. Trust me. Probably smart. We're going to fire off a wedding parlay, and that's going to be my gift to them.

It'll be like a $100 honeymoon parlay. And then if it hits, I'm giving them, I guess, the entire winning. So I guess I'm giving them the whole parlay. But maybe it could cut off a little bit for myself just replacing it. For your troubles. Tax for tax purposes. Alright, good stuff as always,

gentlemen. Appreciate it. Again, thanks for hanging out with us. Subscribe, rate, review, thumbs up, all that stuff. We'll be back next week to do it all again. So for Slop and Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see y'all next time thanks everybody