Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 5 PROPS | Top Prop Bets, Predictions & Picks

Episode Date: October 7, 2022

Experts Ryan Noonan, Connor Allen & Pat Mayo share their top Week 5 NFL player prop bets. Tail them as they hand out their top picks, highlight the best betting odds & share their expert predictions.Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansMove the Line: Prop Drop is sponsored by Thrive Fantasy. Use Promo Code PROPDROP when signing up & you will receive a 100% instant first deposit match up to $250 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3RQQHRuFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Betting on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4BetsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Pat on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ThePMEVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Prop Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TWC40v4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3pQ2tQ14for4 Player Prop Finder 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wxTcQc4for4 Player Prop Odds Comparison Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3AQ5TbK

Hello and welcome to Move the Line, the prop job show presented by Thrive Fantasy. I'm Ryan Noonan. I'm going to be here every week in this space talking about the best way, the most profitable way to bet on NFL football, and that's through player props live here 2 p.m eastern every friday giving our favorite player props and taking your questions so if you're hanging out with us on the youtube stream right now subscribe so you don't miss a show lots of other great content here on the 444 youtube page uh and then hit us up in the chat let us know what your favorite prop is for week five something you're on the fence, something you want to get our thoughts on, or something that maybe we should tell.

Let us know what you think. We'll get to as many as we can here at the end of the show. Connor Allen joining me, as always, fresh off of a win there on Thursday night with the Melvin Gordon under. How we doing, buddy? I'm doing well, yeah. The only way to go 12-0 is to start 1-0 on Thursday. So, you know, I feel good at the end of the week I live bet and and anytime first touchdown score no touchdown score plus 450 I bet that like after the I don't know second quarter probably horrible odds I was just sitting in a bar watching this game I just couldn't help it I needed to get some action on something that was gonna that was gonna cash there so it was fun rooting for that at least. We had a guy in chat too. Sam hit up that live or that pregame at like 101.

Something crazy like that. So yeah, awesome, awesome. Love to see the subscribers get stuff. I think maybe some other folks tailed them too. So good stuff as always. Joining us here every week, the man behind the Mayo Media Network and the Pat Mayo Experience.

It's the man himself, Pat Mayo. How are we doing today? Sweating golf, as I do on Fridays. Can't beat that. I got Tom Hoagie. I got Cam Davis in the mix, so we're doing okay. My boy PGA Splits hit the Tom Hoagie first round leader. Love to see that to get started too, a nice little 60 to one piece there. So we'll see. It's going to be a lot of birdies going on there in the desert, so good stuff there. So we'll see. It's going to be a lot of birdies going on there in the desert. So good stuff there. Pat, what do the listeners need to do if they are hanging out on YouTube with the subscribe button? They need to hit the subscribe button, but mainly they need to smash the like button to this episode. Get those algorithm points up. Interaction. The more you can chat,

the more you can like, the more you can sub, the more you can tweet, the better the show is going to do. So I highly recommend that you do it. It helps more than you think. So if you're hanging out, just give us that quick little thumb. Again, engage with us in the chat. We, again, love to, if we don't get to it, we'll read it later. See if we can find out anything that you like. Because, again, we have limited time and we're trying to make the most of it.

So thoughts that you have are appreciated. I want to remind folks again, we have two episodes of Move the Line each week, both available to stream here on YouTube, also available in podcast form as well, wherever you consume your podcast. Prop drop show here, but then also we have the game previews with Connor, John Daigle, and myself live at 7 p.m. Eastern every Thursday night, which leads you into football. We go around the horn sharing some of our favorite plays. So check that out. Nine week five bets in the hopper there for you as well. Before we jump into the Week 5 props, I want to tell you about our friends over at Thrive Fantasy. We've been talking about it for a little bit, but we have a new offer for you that I think is important and I want to share too. If you're not familiar with Thrive, it's a daily fantasy sports platform for player props.

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Go over to thrivefantasy.com, promo code 444. Good stuff. Connor, let's get started. I know we got the momentum. You said you're on the path to a 12-0 week. Let's kick it off with your first play week five. Yeah. Yeah.

The road to, you know, the pot of gold here starts with Christian Kirk over 66 and a half receiving yards. Last four games, 60, 72, 78,

117 yards. This season is dominating their team target share, dominating their air yard share. 33% of that right now, averaging nine targets per game last week, I think was a little bit of an anomaly. It was a little bit, you know, it was really rainy. He just couldn't seem to hold on anything. Trevor Lawrence played one of the worst games of the season so far for him now matching up against Houston, um, who is 22nd in past EPA per play allowed 24th and explosive pass rate. They've already allowed three big

games to opposing wideouts. Corlin Sutton went for 122. Mike Williams, 120. Michael Pittman, 121 yards. And so here is like the clear, you know, number one option here. I like this Kirk over. And I think the ladders are in play. I haven't seen any yet, but, you know, like a 70 plus, 80 plus, 90 plus. I'll probably sprinkle about half a unit as well up to like 100 or so on the ladders here.

I just think this is a great great spot for him yeah we're talking about this too he's going to see a ton of zone he is getting targeted as yards per route run against zone is i think second in the league um i think this is kind of a nice bounce back spot after a little bit of struggles last week in the rain there pat what are your thoughts on christian kurt i think it makes sense i think the jags just in general are really undervalued this week based on how they played a week ago that it sort of reaffirmed a lot of the preconceived notions that people had about jacksonville coming into the years like well they're not really all that good here put them out against a really good team we'll see how crappy they actually are

and they did not look good in that game lawrence in particular but elements step up in competition they're now back down to placing the doldrums of the NFL. The Jags are one of the three worst. Sorry, the Texans are one of the three worst teams in football. So all of the regularity that you assume from the Jags offense is going to happen again this week. So I like that. Yeah, good spot there. All right, Pat, how about for you?

What's your first one of the week? I'm going with an under to start off. You know how I love me some unders. Not really, but here we are. Cooper Rush, under five and a half rushing yards. He got to seven last week. So if you take a look at his career, so I think it was 2017, his first game he played, he had beat this five and a half number.

And he beat it last week. Never once in between has he even come close to five and a half yards rushing. He doesn't run the ball, ever. In fact, even if they win win this game they didn't get a few kneel downs at the end and he's got a few of those in his career like minus three minus four just from the kneel downs now i don't expect the cowboys to beat the rams but running on the rams is just incredibly hard maybe that means he has to pass more see some space takes off running i just don't buy it betting this under every week would make you incredibly profit, be incredibly profitable.

So under five and a half rushing hurts for Cooper. Cooper, oh my God. Cooper rush is where I'm starting. Cooper doesn't rush. I think this probably this theoretically is probably a good play every week, right? These actually non-rushing quarterbacks, because you have so many outs of how they can go, go poorly.

And then you do bring in the element of the kneel down, Connor. I mean, I probably don't have a deep Cooper rush handicap in your bag right now off the cuff, but like, it makes sense. No, it's, it sounds right. I guess like on a similar, well, maybe not a similar note, but like the Kenny Pickett rushing yards. I don't know if you guys looked at that either,

but I think that the under on that is interesting as well. But yeah, I think Cooper Rush here, I think it kind of depends on this game. I don't know. It seems like there's a lot of sharp people on the Dallas, but then I've also seen Sharp Clark, our guy, likes the Rams this week. And I think that that kind of impacts how the game goes here, whether Dallas goes run heavy or not. So I think that Mayo's on the right side here,

but I don't have too much of a strong take on this rushing yards i think dallas is live though too to be honest so maybe you know it does bring it into play in the world thinks dallas is live buddy that's the issue i'm not backing dallas i'm just saying that they're they're live so i don't think that there's like a non-zero outcomes where cooper rushes is taking knees. So that's all they, they, the chalk, they chalk, everyone's taking the points.

Well, I get it. I mean, I'm, I'm fading the Rams team total here. So I get, we just saw them kind of lay an egg on prime time on Monday night. So yeah,

I get it. I get why they're popular play. I have a little bit of, we'll, we'll talk about the picket one coming up in a minute, but I have thoughts. All right. First, I'm going to also start with an under, not the place that I love to be,

but I think this is a good spot. And I'm taking under on Baker Mayfield at 194 and a half passing yards. Connor and I hit this. It got beat down a little bit and dropped into like the 180s and now has climbed back up. Looks like it's taking some over money, which I think is very brave. But I mean, the struggles are legit. If you've watched any Baker, thoughts and prayers, but like just getting batted balls down all the time.

This Niners defense is legit. I don't think this is a spot where you're going to expect Baker to finally get right. Basically anything that matters, San Francisco is top three at defensively first and success rate against both man and zone coverage. According to sports info solutions, they have a points above average metric. Baker is the league worst against zone, but you're going to see a ton of zone. Even the teams that play a lot of man play almost as much and sometimes even more zone still just the zone a zone heavy league uh 28th out of 31

quarterbacks against man coverage too he's just sucked no matter what metric you have uh daigle would yell at me for giving too many stats on baker you would just say you just say baker under um and baker sucks and you're good but want to cover it with a little bit more for our listening audience i think baker under 194 and a half on mgm is a good look uh connor i know you're you're there as well pat and he any leans on Baker? Yeah, I'm staying far away from this game in almost every magnitude. The line is a trap. I don't understand how it's not higher.

It's not moving. Something just smells with this game. Like Carolina weirdly wins and the favorite in Survivor gets knocked out again in week five. That's been a trend so far this year. Who the obviously safe team is? No, they're not going to win. Or even last week with the Green Bay, they go to overtime with New England. Just something fishy feels up with this game. Obviously, I love the Baker under.

Like, that's the move. But I don't know. Just, oh, here is a one-yard screen to Christian McCaffrey. Oh, he took it 98 yards. Didn't see that happening. It feels like something weird like that is going to happen. Jimmy pick six. Oh, Jimmy pick six is fine.

I mean, that's what I think is going to like a muff punt. But in terms of hitting this over, I could still like they had the big Chenault play. They had the big Robbie Anderson play in week one. That's the only way he has any yards to begin with, isn't it? Yeah, that's it. I get it. So you have like West Coast to East Coast short week, you know, it i get it so you have like west coast to east

coast uh short week you know a big prime time win so like i think there's a lot of like i think if you're just a system better um you know not following anything matchup wise i think this is probably carolina's probably a a wet dream for some of those folks out there but uh carter any reluctancy since we fired on this earlier in the week no no i still like it i mean he's been right around that number regardless now this is like by far the toughest matchup i talked about in our last episode i i agree with pat that it feels like a trap because it just should be so much higher but i mean i'm just fine with it still like i'm fine still fading baker mayfield in this spot here against like literally the best defense in the league um so yeah, I,

I mean, I look six and a half is fine. Baker Mayfield under is fine. I think he could get benched mid game. I think I said in the last episode, I think my rule gets fired. So that's my, my three.

If you, if you can't parlay all that, but you know, that's my would be a parlay. If you could. Same game parlay with the coach to be fired, coach be fired, QB to be benched Niners minus 17 i feel like one of the

books you have there in canada pat would let you parlay that like i always feel like you got access to just some wild shit that we don't have i always wish that you should be able to parlay anything like if you want to be a degenerate and get down on stuff like i don't know why books are so stringent on that stuff they don't want to hit they don't want you to hit big winners ryan yeah i know well what do you do? Back to the wheel. Connor, number two. Yeah, my second one here is an under.

I like Allen Robinson under 40 and a half receiving yards. I think it's down to 39 and a half at this point, which is more than fine. Robinson so far in four games, 7, 23, 53, and 12 receiving yards. Right now, second worst in targets per route run on the season, along with Paris Campbell, along with Gabe Davis, just joining the NFL cardio club, running a ton of routes, not getting targeted. Cowboys, I think they get still get a good amount of pressure here. I know that the Rams offensive line should be a little bit healthier, but still Cowboys right now, second in pressure rate, even a little bit of pressure, I think, kind of negates the opportunity there

for Stafford to start throwing outside the numbers. Allen Robinson almost exclusively lining up outside. My only concern, something that I saw after playing this, is that they talked about getting in the ball more, moving him around. McVay kind of took the blame for it. But at the same time, that's what they were doing all offseason.

So, I mean, that's what they said coming into the year, and that has not happened at all. And I don't think this is the spot for it to happen with dallas likely to pressure uh and less likely for plays to develop here so i think that under 40 and a half yards is pretty safe here as like he's the what third or fourth option behind cooper cup tyler higby and then him and ben skronic are essentially vying for those third and fourth target options this is tough for you man like this is two weeks in a row where you've had to, like, really move off of some very strongly held preseason priors with Chase Edmonds and now pivoting off of the Allen Robinson stuff, too. It's rough.

I mean, I got to make the money back somehow, Noonan. I mean, at this point, just, you know. I mean that. I'm giving you credit because sometimes people just anchor and double down and want to chase this low level, you know, over here. I think it's going to be a bounce back. So applause to you, Pat, any thoughts on the dumpster fire? That is Alan Robinson so far.

Then we throw to two people, Connor hit on it. Like that's it. Like if you're not one of those two people play the under, you're going to win money spent Connor. It's done. It's true. It's Higby in Cooper cup. I mean, it's, it's a disaster. So yeahby and cooper cup i mean it's it's a disaster so

yeah i think they're gonna be under crap ton of pressure i i like i almost almost tailed it interested to see maybe some of this coach speak moves it a little bit but yeah i think it's a pretty good line pat one number two for you buddy i'm gonna play it over on this one uh i have this one off by about 20 yards i was really surprised surprised, honestly, when I saw it come out. It's Curtis Samuel over 44.5 receiving yards. They're down Jahan Dotson this week. So it leaves just two guys against Tennessee, whose pass rush is like okay,

but it's not like what Wentz suffered against Dallas last week. He's going to be dropped on his ass. That's going to happen. But there's the guy leading the team in targets. Anyway, at seven last week, which was like a season low for him the four receptions he didn't get to this total against dallas he's gotten well over this total every other week this season and now you take out one of the players and you have logan thomas pretty iffy in this spot as well like i get to see this being like an eight for 79 type game for curtis Samuel, just force him the ball over and over the easy low a dot routes against the

Tennessee team. That's not going to bring as much pressure as they've seen the past two weeks. So I thought this one was artificially low. So I will take the over. Yeah. Connor, we took a position on Logan Thomas. And now all of a sudden we're like, it's, it's moved, you know, in our favor, we got 25 and a half, it's 28. And now we get a late edition of the injury report, which is never a place you want to be on Logan Thomas or really anyone.

Logan Thomas obviously has a just CVS receipt style history. As far as like injuries go, it's been a mess, but I like this line. I haven't seen this Curtis Samuel line, to be honest. And I do like it. It's obviously a pretty narrow target tree to begin with, with Dotson on the lineup. We have a tick over 50 yards um but i'm not quite sure where that is or if we've actually pulled dots and out yet but uh any thoughts here on curtis samuel no yeah what pat what do you have for him projected for him i'm curious uh six catches eight targets 65 yards

yeah i think that that i mean the receptions are probably an interesting look as well i haven't seen that either but that's like you said, a lot of low a dot stuff. That's probably a great look there on, I would guess four and a half, five and a half, maybe juiced like plus money on the over or something like that. Probably four and a half. They actually don't have a Curtis Samuel reception prop. They only have the Ardage prop at DraftKings at least.

Yeah. We've been slow to release some of the reception props on Washington this week, because I think with the questions with Dotson being out officially and now we have Logan Thomas. So, yeah. Yeah, I like that. We're a tad over, but we're over five receptions too.

So I think you'll probably see a four and a half. That's probably a pretty good look too. The A-Dot's low, but again, the way he's been after the catch, he'll probably have to be used a little bit differently too. So I don't hate those looks at all. What about Logan Thomas? What do we, what do we do with that?

I mean, is he just like dust? He was already just take the L. I mean, it's probably dust anyway, but I mean, yeah, he can still get there.

I mean, the guys are so bad. I mean, if he doesn't play, it's void anyway. Right. So, but I mean,

he hobbles himself out there. I think we're still probably live. I would prefer for him not to play and get the void, honestly, point like for sure betting it over on a banged up logan thomas just i mean sounds like an absolute it wasn't banged up when we bet it late addition to the injury report is never a place you want to be so who's their backup john bates john bates i take it over on like 12 and a half on john bates if I don't know what they'll post that line at, but if he's out. Sounds right. Yeah, that'll be a late Sunday morning line.

They'll post that bad boy like 30 minutes before kick. They don't want any. You see that. You see a lot of good stuff that comes out Sunday morning just before. I didn't see this as of yet. Is Jacoby Myers in or out? I don't think we've heard yet. Okay. I've been waiting all day for that because I love Jacoby Myers but I would take overs on him if he's in

yeah even with Bailey Zappi yeah I don't think I should I maybe hot taker Giants fans came after me this week because some Giants like blog picked up my comments about Daniel Jones, how I said that he wasn't significantly better than Nathan Peterman, which I stand by. He's not, he's terrible. And so was Nathan Peterman. I mean, is he significant like that?

If you were significantly better than Nathan Peterman, that means you would be good. And Daniel Jones isn't good. So I feel like I can stand by what I'm saying with this. And just kind of the other way, like is Zappy that much worse than Mac Jones? Mac Jones isn't very good. So no, I don't think.

Yeah, I think Bailey Zappy is fine. We talked about the last thing on, you know, our game preview show. Like, I don't think it's that big of a difference, to be honest, as far as like if you wanted to back the Pats or, you know, had any thoughts on the prop market.

Like, I just don't think, especially against the Lions defense, I don't think it's a huge difference. So don't hate that. Just trying to look at trying to look at injuries right now just all the ones i missed like over the past half hour nothing crazy do you think people will play robert woods is over prop because trailing burks is out probably probably yeah i wonder that that'll probably open to be like 50 ish or so i don't know yeah i don't think i'd play that i don't either daigle was telling us

too he thinks because i'm not super like i'll do dfs stuff on friday night saturday so i'm not super plugged into early week dfs thoughts but he's he's thinking that robert woods is going to probably catch some ownership which is also seems like a place i wouldn't want to be i don't know what tambo's thinking on robert woods but uh we you know what we did the entire show we spoke for an hour and a half his name never came. I think that's indicative of where we should probably all be on Robert Woods this week. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Number two for me is speaking in dusty. We're going to go with Zach Ertz. We're going to take over on four and a half receptions on Ertz. This has been steamed out on DraftKings in a big way, but MGM still has minus 125, which I think is pretty good.

He was limited in week one, played just 63% of the snaps, is dealing with a foot injury in the preseason. In the three games since, he's run a route on no fewer than 87% of Kyler's dropbacks. He's averaging nine targets per game and got a super low ADOT. We know he is basically just a catch and fall down guy, so it's always receptions over yards for me with Ertz. He's caught at least six balls in those three games,

and I think we're in a spot where Arizona, whatever you think is going to happen in this game, some folks think this is also another fishy spot from a line standpoint. Either way, I don't think Arizona is running away with this game. We're going to keep neutral at best for Arizona. So I think they're going to be at a pass centric spot to keep up with the Eagles here. So, and this has been a spot we've hit every week so far since the limited

play in week one, and he's got us there pretty comfortably. Sometimes this is cashing in the first half. So he's not doing a lot with those receptions, but over four and a half again for arts, I think is a great play. So Connor, did you, I don't think you got in on this any thoughts on earths no i i wish i did and for some reason i didn't get in last week either but yeah i just i guess just keep smashing the over until he fails because i i guess though i would say that with rondale more you know potentially playing a little bit more i mean i don't know it could take some like hypothetically away from

earths but not really he seems like he's got a pretty defined role in the offense at this point. Just like catch the ball, fall down in the middle of the field, you know, eat up some zone there. You know, he's not gonna be doing anything crazy, but the receptions are the right look. Definitely, again, would not play yards. You mentioned that last week, but I think receptions are a solid look. Yeah, the threshold for yards isn't even that high. But again, this is a dude that we don't expect to do anything after the catch.

The ADOT's pretty low. Pat, any thoughts on Ertz? Yeah yeah it's getting juiced up to the nines i love the over four and a half but i just don't want to lay that juice so if you can find it with lower juice then that's a move yeah 125 still on mgm but yeah i think draft kings is getting uh destroyed on that so makes sense uh connor well before we do reminder you're hanging out with us in the chat hit us up let us know what your thoughts are we'll get to you at the end of the show uh connor prop three yeah my third prop here hayden hurst over two and a half receptions and this one's getting juiced up pretty fast here i mean draft king's got like minus 170 but uh betmgm i believe has like a minus 140

uh and that's still fine for me i know that that's i don't like laying juice on overs but i think this one is just like at least a full reception off here hearst has five five then we had one reception and then three receptions those four games but the issue is done that week three game he was injured so he played 75 to 80 of the snaps in weeks one and two got injured so only played only 38 of the snaps week three um then his snapshot went up in week four to 56 now another week healthier. I expect him to return back to that 75, 80% mark here, probably get another seven, eight targets and easily go over this number of two and a half here. So I'm fine with laying the juice here. I think even if he doesn't improve from like a, you know, play amount perspective, like still

hovers around that 60% mark, he's still a good luckier to get three, four receptions in this game against Baltimore. So I like that over there. And I mean, I would almost play it up to minus 150, which I know sounds crazy, but I think it's fun. We have him at 3.6, 230 yards Monday night. Pat, any thoughts on Hurst against Baltimore? A revenge game, right?

I've liked Hurst every week. I actually think he's a pretty underrated fantasy commodity at the same time, just with the potential upside. With teams just selling out to stop chase, someone's going to be wide open. Generally, it's Aiden Hurst or Tyler Boyd, I suppose. Yeah, I don't mind that either. It is juicy, but same thing.

I think Dallas Goddard's in that same bucket too. His reception number is too low, but it's getting juiced. I don't know. Sometimes I feel like those are not bad places to chase versus, you know, chasing a really high yardage total where there's so many outs for that to go wrong. Especially when that stuff like that gets juiced up. I think this is probably a little bit better. I think Pat talked about this in week one and it's kind of stuck with me. I think it's really a good analysis is I think some of the things that are more projectable week in and week out are things like receptions, pass attempts, you know, things like that. If we could bet on things like targets,

I think we can be, those things are more predictable. But you know, things like yards, like I feel like low a dot guys like tight ends, like we're talking about with Ertz and Hayden Hurst, I do think are easier to project week in and week out and probably have less variance. So those are spots if I was going to be comfortable laying juice this would be kind of one of those spots to do it so good with it you're gonna find with pits out this week the hell is this guy's name parker hess like yeah 0.5 receptions is where you should be looking at another sunday morning special probably so uh pat number three number three for me is that kenny picket prop The 18 and a half rushing yards ran six times for 12 and two touchdowns last week. I don't think they're going to want to feed him to the wolves here and try to get him

hurt against the Buffalo Bills. And it's not like they were designed runs that were going on. And that's part and parcel with he doesn't have a ton of experience in the offense. He came in halfway through the game. It's not like anything was prepped for him. They not running rpo with kenny pickett at least don't think they're going to do that so under 18 and a half rushing here it seems pretty sensible it's just like people saw what the end result was last week tried to project that out over an entire game and then boom you got it going you you do run into a circumstance where the bills get up by like 25

they start playing very lax coverage and he can just kind of take off for 10 yards you worry about that but i just don't feel like that's going to necessarily be a big part of his game plan you just see it a lot when quarterbacks come in in the second half to replace another quarterback their rushing yards usually go over whatever their general baseline is going to be because plays break down and it's just a safer play and they're not trying to turn it over pickett loves turning it over apparently but i just don't think we're going to see like a bulk of rushing attempts from him yeah this is not a guy that we thought coming in i mean he has decent athleticism connor but it's not a guy we're profiling as like a running

quarterback so i do think that there's some overreaction to a very very small sample size too so um i think that's probably put out there a little too high. I think if we wouldn't have seen that, maybe this is like 10 and a half, nine and a half. Yeah. So like, I think Pat's on the right side. That's what I thought too.

So this like originally popped out earlier than the week to me. And then I, so I went back and watched like his carries like two to three of those were just like QB sneaks. Like he would, there was just like a one yard, like dive forward. So it was really only like two to three rush attempts now getting, uh, you know, Buffalo

team plays a ton of zone as we've talked about, you know, man versus zone, one of the league leaders there. So they'll have their, you know, they'll be facing him. They'll have them in front of him. Like, I just don't think there's gonna be that many lanes either. So something that I considered pretty heavily, actually, to be honest, we have like 14 projected. I think a bunch of other sites have like you know 10 i think that even 14 is a little bit too high so yeah i like that a lot it's something that i've i've really looked at

making like an official play for us as well yeah i have it at 9.8 probably spot on yeah you said there's obviously ways for any quarterback rushing to right play breaks down and all those things but i think you're gonna be on the right side if you continue to bang this and even looking at his pit numbers like 97 rushes for 241 yards those just sound like a lot of sneaks to me yeah that in 2020 9 for 81 obviously he got hurt that year 2019 you know uh 95 for 110 117 for 220 like he has the rush attempts but they're very clearly just in short yardage situations yeah some film guys too that i respect it was you know looking basically breaking down some of the stuff he did last week talking about how he's what they didn't like in his college profiles is not his inability to step up or his unwillingness to step up in the pocket and i think

i'd actually be more reluctant to take this under if he was aggressive stepping up in the pocket. And I think I'd actually be more reluctant to take this under if he was aggressive, stepping up in the pocket because he might be able to open up some passing lanes and some vision to see what's going on. Instead, you're having that like throw off your back heels again, tape guy take here, but like he's throwing off his back foot,

refusing to get outside of the pocket. Like, I don't know. I think he's more likely to, you know, throw more picks and jump ball situations than he is to break pocket and contain and scramble. So,

uh, lock that down. Official tape guy here, tape grinder. So I was about to say amazing how the show has developed to know I'm, I'm punting off same game parlays and now you're like a locked in tape guy. So I contemplated putting a tackle prop on the card this week, but,

uh, we'll keep that for the discord. I think that's the softest market there is right now in NFL betting. Tackles. Yeah. I've been grinding it pretty hard for the last couple of weeks and tracking it. And last week was pretty good.

Nine and three. So that would, that would have like, I would need to know who players on defense are, which I don't. So that's tough for me. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I felt like I knew a lot, but I feel like I So that's tough for me. Yeah. Yeah.

I mean, I felt like I knew a lot, but I feel like I, now that I've started to get into it, I didn't know a lot. And now I feel like I do. So we're getting there. I mean, you're just floating some guys to me every week that I'm like, who is that? Like I, you know, I just, I don't know the third string off ball linebacker for like this random

team, you know, it's just like, and you're like, oh, well, this guy's wearing the dot. And you know, this sounds like I, these are just metrics that I've never even heard of but i love it i mean yeah like who is the middle linebacker for the for the commanders uh colm holcomb yeah that guy's gonna have like 48 tackles on derrick henry once he gets to the second level this week he's on the list exactly uh michael walker uh one of the linebackers for the falcons or what about the chargers who's the chargers middle linebacker?

Chargers is going to be a big one. It's Dre Tranquil. He just got the dot last week. What does that mean? The signal caller, the guy who relays the plays from the coaching staff so that they're more likely to stay on the field more. His playing time went up massively last week, and he had 11 tackles. He's probably going to get hung at five and a half,

maybe six and a half. So anything under seven and a half, we are taking Dre Twinkle. Yeah, say that again. Dway Twinkle? Dway Twinkle. Dway Twinkle. So what's a good projection for Cole Holcomb?

Cole Holcomb, probably six and a half. All right. And who's another one I can use? Michael Walker, seven and a half all right yep and who's another one i can use just michael michael walker uh seven and a half for the falcons um doesn't come off the field got uh they also have rashaun evans is another guy that plays 100 of the snaps there but uh walker's got like uh two percent higher tackle rate uh because tackle rate's a thing snaps per tackle or tackles per snap so i think again negative game script for them we're gonna have a lot of uh leonard fournette being drilled down

their throats in the second half he's had i think uh 10 11 and 9 the last three weeks he's out there at seven and a half and like these will get dropped like over the weekend right i know michael walker's out there right now uh for the falcons it's the only one but yeah usually friday night saturday morning wow we're getting there look this is incredible i mean this transition you're a thought leader in the in the tackle props i agree with pat that's why i went after it is like i do think these are probably like not sharp i just don't think they're getting bet in a lot so i do think that there's something there to think about pace and game script and tackle rate you know guy looking at guys who don't come off the field on third downs

and you know you never know yeah i mean it's crazy too because we saw i sent you the chart it was like uh 2020s like prop results by category versus 2022s prop result by category it was essentially in 2020 you could just like blind bet unders and hit like 56 on whatever like passing yards all these categories now it's like broken down by category it's like you're losing blindly betting no matter what you do uh which is pretty pretty wild in the problem market so you gotta gotta find that edge uh somehow so love it yeah those are some of the good ones for the week uh yeah try cool is going to be one of my one of my favorites all right um where do we leave off um oh i think it's me i think i'm on my third here uh chris olave this is more

on brands uh over 62 and a half receiving yards um seattle's defense is terrible 29th and explosive pass rate allowed in the season michael thomas looks like he's going to miss this one again with a toe injury we have three straight games of 30% target per route run for Olave. On the season, he's like 25%, but when Michael Thomas is out of the lineup, it's like 31.5%. So he is benefiting from that too. The Ariarts thing is insane. He's averaging 168.2 Ariarts per game with an 18.2 a dot like he's being used aggressively down the field we don't see that when guys have a target share north of 25 like there's all the other guys i think the next highest guy from an a dot perspective with the target share over 25 percent honestly mark andrews is like 11.6 so like a lot of it is a deep threat against a bad defense at home.

I don't care that it's Andy Dalton. Longest reception prop is probably pretty decent look too. 22 and a half for that. He has gone off for 51, 49, and 32 in the last three weeks. So Olave over 62 and a half. I think the kid's real deal. This is available anywhere. Draft Kings, Caesars, MGM,

FanDuel's to chicken to pop props up there but it'll probably be there when they copy it but yeah um a lot of it i like quite a bit uh man what are your thoughts there you say me or did you say yeah sorry yeah on the lave give me give me marquez calloway overs when those drop that's what i was gonna ask is that too thin i mean i it'll probably be like 40s maybe I don't know 30s like it's gonna be a little bit you think lower yeah all right yeah I think the lovey number is right yeah and do we know who's playing quarterback I think it's gonna be Dalton that's probably worse for a lobby I know he got there last week but it was by the skin of his

teeth that he got there because he gets there on like these huge big plays right so like ladders is you know to connor's point i'll steal i'm thinking connor's gonna tell me already is that you know the best look for a lave is to take some you know alt lines that you know plus over 80 over 100 yards or something like that did i steal your thunder no but i was gonna say parlor do a same game parlay. Olave over and Seattle plus five and a half. Because if they're winning, they're not going to throw. Yeah, but he can get there on such few. With an ADOT like this, he can get there on such few catches. Sure, but all of his ADOT comes in the fourth quarter when they're losing.

Yeah. And half of his ADOT is probably from Jameis throwing him, whatever, 300 prayer yards that one week. I mean, that was just ridiculous. So I don't know. I, I think it's about right. I Lee,

I like the over, but it's, it's close. Like, I think that 62 is adjusting for everything we've talked about. Like this line should have probably been in like the fifties, you know, normally.

So I, I don't know that again, it's just a sharp line. Maybe Marquez Calloway is the right look. If you get like, I mean, what do you think it's going to come in at Pat? Like 30 then is,

are you like, I think it'll be that low. I was going to say like 31 and a look. I mean, what do you think it's going to come in at, Pat? Like 30 then? Do you think it'll be that low? I was going to say like 31 and a half. I actually like all of the other Saints overs in that game. Like once we know who's in and once we know who's out. Like I'm just trying to find it right now. Where are we at? Rushing and receiving. Receiving yards.

Where are the Saints at? Saints. Did I spell that right? Yeah, there we are. All right, Jawanson's up a little bit right now in the lobby 62 and a half all right i don't love those i'd want juwan johnson down around like 17 and a half but it finally happened for him last week so that was really nice and like i only i made two bets on thursday night and one of them was denver minus three not a success

very sad i capped the game properly that i said that the colts are probably the worst team in football didn't realize that denver was like also the worst team in football so that was stupid but the other one was the tight end schubert or the hell his name is it just he was running so many ruts for drop back last week and did nothing with him it's like well he's like over of seven and a half is probably going to hit. Boom. There it is. He dropped a bunch of balls last night too. So yeah, that's sucks to suck. Bad teams stay bad for a reason.

That was such a gross game. Glad we don't have to watch that. I wanted to hit Colts team total under, and I don't know why I didn't. And I felt like a donkey. And that's kind of what I feel like when I'm going to watch with a lave on Sunday is when he like bust a big one for 50 yards and I didn't pull the triggers and be

like see i mean no michael thomas against the seahawks who i think is like that's a bottom three secondary you know massive explosive play rate so far so i'm gonna ride with it uh again reminder we're almost wrapping up we each have one more pick uh shoot some stuff to us in the chat again subscribe rate review all those things. We super appreciate it. Connor last one. Yeah. Last one for me, I like miles Sanders over 14 and a half rushing attempts. I think it's just about one attempt too short here. I think getting the 14 and a half is pretty important so far this season, uh, last three weeks, 27, 15, 17, and then 13 carries in week one. But he's, you know, seen his snap share continue to rise here.

52, 53, 59, and then 67% last week. He's getting a ton of work. They're projected to be leading against this Arizona team. I don't necessarily love the matchup from a rushing perspective here

against Arizona's run defense, which is significantly better than their past defense. But I still think that with the past defense being so bad, they're gonna be able to sustain drives and be able to score

and projected positive or at least neutral game script should keep sanders in the game here to get 15 plus carries pretty easily so we have projected for around like 18 i think uh so it's a it's a good border there i know a couple other sites have them around like 15 16 so again i think 14 f's important get that number it's minus 110 in most spots so not really juiced and i think that that's a solid look do we know boston scott's we don't that's that's what i would wait for like i have boston scott projected as in right now in my projections only getting a five percent uh market share of the rushes i have mile sanders at exactly 14 and a half rushing attempts oh wow yeah that would be one i would want to know because i'm not super worried about uh you know kind of game well uh carries you know we have him for for three i'm trying to see if our projections

have boston scott in or out because that might be feeding our projections i think we have boston scott out currently so um i'd want to know that but i also kind of leaned to the over there too i do think how you think this game plays out matters i know connor and i are aligned obviously thinking that this eagles one feels a little fishy similar to what pat's talking about with the pandas game like i mean this this seems like a bad matchup um but yeah i think if you like the eagles here i think that correlates well with uh miles sanders continuing to get some some work i think when you're looking kind of how they distribute rushes there it's skewed because you get so many attempts from hertz you know so all right uh pat number four for you bring it home i got a bunch written down i don't have a favorite of the fourth maybe you guys can help

let's go here's just rapid fire you say you like it or you don't and then i'll come down on it dalton schultz over 34 and a half receiving yards off the top i don't have a feel for it. I like it. He played a lot. He just didn't have good. His usage was good, but it's, I mean, it was his first game back. I thought that was on my list as well.

I just didn't play it yet. Yeah, so it's almost the same thing with what happened with the Denver Titan on Thursday night. He was ninth in routes run per dropback percentage a week ago. It's like, oh, that'll translate into more numbers here. Feels like we were getting a severely depressed Dalton Schultz. He was still seventh in routes run per dropbacks last week for the Cowboys. It's really tough to run on the Rams. I know Jeff Wilson had the one really nice run, but that was basically it.

That's all they did in the running game, that entire game. So I think they're going to have to pass a bunch. I mean, I looked at three and a half receptions. I don't love that. So that was on the list. I had Aaron Rodgers under 32 and a half pass attempts. You want to talk about trappy lines? The Giants line feels really trappy, but I don't know.

They might just run the ball 500 times, right? I like the Aaron Rodgers one. I had it last week here. We did this last week. That was one of the ones I tossed out to you guys. And we were cruising until we got to overtime. Yeah, you got to fade overtime. Yeah.

So now it's a, you know, attempt higher. And I like it. I think that that one does feel wonky too, but I think they'll be able to run all over the Giants with a beat up Daniel Jones, who we've already kind of put in a coffin early in the show. We can put him right back there as well. I think, you know,

they'd be able to see a nice rushing game from them too. So yeah, I like that too. Connor, any thoughts on, on Roger? I think what they're part of their game plan is going to do to like negate the, you know, really blitz heavy giants is going to be like a lot of quick throws plus run and runs. Like, so it's just a matter of like what, you know, if they get up to a lead, they're just going to run the ball and be fine with,

you know, maybe not being quite as efficient, but I think to start the game, we're probably going to just see a bunch of like, you know, screens or like quick slants where they're just going to run the ball and be fine with you know maybe not being quite as efficient but i think to start the game we're probably going to see a bunch of like you know screens or like quick slants where they're like like rub routes like just try and get the ball like asap so um that would be my only concern when i was going back to it but i still think 32 and a half is like i mean a good good buffer there for for rogers yeah i haven't projected five underneath of that for attempts obviously things can skew that game script gets out of whack a little bit and you're absolutely screwed but i think that's one that i'm leading

to like the other ones i was looking at were like breeze hall uh over 16 and a half receiving yards jamal williams over 62 and a half rushing yards which seems really low for the amount of work that he gets i know people are scared of this new orleans defense i'm not rashad penny over 57 and a half rushing yards like he gets 80 of the work like what are we scared of this New Orleans defense. I'm not. Rashad Penny, over 57 and a half rushing yards. Like, he gets 80% of the work. Like, what are we scared of here? That he's going to rush for one yard a carry? And I believe, didn't Kenneth Walker pop up with a little bit of an injury or something yesterday I saw?

Yeah, he did. Maybe limited? Yeah. So, I mean, that's not a bad look at all on the Penny. I have Penny projected for only 12 carries, but 77 yards. Yeah, he can rip big plays. Marcus Davenport's out for the Saints. Again, we're talking about defensive guys, defensive guys that matter.

Marcus Davenport is a guy that matters. We've seen it historically in the last handful of years when he's missed chunks of time. This is not the stout run defense that we've seen when he's in the lineup. So, yeah's he makes a difference yeah the the last one i wanted to run by you cooper cup 93 and a half shouldn't he have like 200 yeah eight and a half receptions it's like i don't know what number is too too high for for cooper cup like they only throw two guys pat yeah and like you think michael parsons is in

stafford's face the entire game. One of the main reasons that Allen Robinson isn't getting the ball is because his routes take longer to develop, to get open. Cooper's Cup just makes one move, and he's open at the line of scrimmage. Yeah, and we've seen a shift, too, defensively with the Cowboys. Played a ton of man last year. We know that. We saw with Trayvon Diggs, big gambler.

This year they're playing way more zone, and they're playing it really well. So that just speaks to Cooper Cupp being able to find little spots in the zone, sit down, and he's so good after the catch too. So yeah, I have no problem with anyone chasing big number on Cooper Cupp until we see him not do it. He's like over 90-something yards every single week, except like two times in the last 20 games. It's insane.

I'm surprised you haven't already played that, to be honest. I'm going to stick with the Aaron Rodgers under 32 and a half passing attempts. I do really like that one. So that will be my fourth official play. The other one in that same bucket is the Cooper Cup that I thought Mayo might go back to is the one you hit in a big way last week

with Justin Jefferson. We might get no Jalen Johnson for the Bears. I don't know why. Jalen Johnson, I think, is really good, but he's literally seen one target this year. No, they're not throwing to Jalen Johnson for the Bears. I don't know why. Jalen Johnson I think is really good, but he's literally seen one target this year. No, they're not throwing to Jalen Johnson. I just think that's a large enough sample where it's not random. I think teams are actually – he's the guy that teams are scared of

in the back half of the Bears. They don't have him. I just don't know how the Bears slow him down. He's like 84-and-a-half. Pat was kind of in that wagon last week against Saints who actually have a shutdown corner that tailed him all week and still couldn't slow him down and he's like 84 and a half i know you know pat was kind of in that wagon last week against saints who actually have like a shutdown corner that that tailed him all week and still couldn't slow him down so couldn't do nothing yep so jj cooper cup those are definitely plays that i don't mind chasing uh alpha wide receivers when they get a little bit higher devon day adams probably decent look when that pops uh kansas city's really struggled against

wide receiver ones mike williams is in good spot. I'm waiting for that line too. I think he can eat maybe some ladders on Mike Williams. But my last one is in the same vein here as Pat said. I do think Dallas has to throw a lot. I think there were maybe some concerns about CeeDee Lamb because they gave him the day off. He said he had an aggravated groin. They said he's fine.

He says he's fine. It's dropped over 61.5 half receiving yards for CD lamb. The Rams have allowed the most yards in targets per game to wide receiver ones this year. They play a ton of zone. A lot of, I think the thought is, Oh,

they have Jalen Ramsey. He's going to chase and shadow and shut down your number one receiver. He doesn't do that. Doesn't shadow almost ever. It's like 80th in shadow rate this year, which I don't even know that you can actually, he either receiver. He doesn't do that. He doesn't shadow almost ever. It's like 80th in shadow rate this year, which I don't even know that you can actually, he either does or he doesn't. So you look at the wide receiver ones this year

that have played against the Rams, Steph Diggs, eight for 121, Drake London, eight for 86, Hollywood Brown, 14 for 140, and Debo last week, six for 115. I think that Cee that CD lamb eats here. And yeah, this is, I have no concern about the groin. 61 and a half is fine.

I fired at 63 and a half. No problem with that at all. CD eats in the spot. Yeah. I, I hugged in the, in the discord. So I'm, I'm on it. I like it. I think it's a solid look here.

He just, it's so interesting. Cause everyone with, when he was with Dak Prescott, everyone was like ready to call CD lamb a bus. Now that he's with Cooper rush, he's just been crushing it. And I mean, he's been seeing the most targets. He's been looking good.

He's been playing better. Now I think having Michael Gallup back, having Dalton Schultz, like healthy, like probably helps him. I mean, like one of the biggest concerns is something that I've seen with him is like,

he's like struggle sometimes to operate as as the focal point of the offense. I think it was week one he got doubled a bunch and just couldn't get out of the bracket coverage. Now with those guys healthy, I just don't think teams are able to do that. So he should continue to play pretty well here. Yeah, do you just have enough of a tendency? When you look at we've done a lot of work to track defenses and how they play, the Rams are one of the most predictable.

We see a lot of teams that are kind and how they play. The Rams are one of the most predictable. We see a lot of teams that are kind of – they'll change based off of the matchups and stuff. The Rams play the same stuff. They did the same thing last year with Raheem Morris as a defensive coordinator. They're doing the same stuff this year. I do feel that they're more predictable. So Jalen Ramsey is awesome still. Yes, they're just going to find a lot of ways to avoid him because they move CD around a lot. And yeah, I think it's a good play.

So Pat, that works for you, right? You think the Rams are going to, or the Cowboys are going to throw a lot? I do think the Cowboys are going to throw a ton in this game. Yeah. Yeah. I like that one quite a bit. So, all right. Before we jump into some questions quick in the chat,

we're going to get over to Thrive. Reminder, if you missed at the top, Thrive Fantasy. Use the promo code 444, deposit $20, and you get a free betting subscription to 444. $20. Subcost $140 if you did it by yourself. You can get it for $20 at Thrive. So thrivefantasy.com, promo code 444.

Connor, have you taken a look over there either anything in the prop lobby or any of the things in the uh you know their tournament style this week i think there are a couple i mean there's a couple decent ones here in the prop lobby they're in the contest they're getting a little bit tougher but um right now aj brown i think this philly offense you know crushes this week is over under 82 and a half seems high. Um, but I think that in this one, you're getting like a lot of plus money here on, on their like scoring. So I like that over a decent bit here, Joe Mixon over under one and a half touchdowns. I mean, I feel like anytime there's a one and a half touchdowns, you should just take

the under, um, Matthew Stafford over under two and a half passing touchdowns plus interceptions. Um, it seems just, I mean, a little bit high here, but Cooper Cup eight and a half receptions. You can get plus money on the over there. That is also a good look for me. Anything that stood out to you? Yeah, I like the Mark Andrews over 54 and a half receiving yards. I think we've seen Lamar have a lot of success

against man-heavy teams this year. And Andrews is his first target. And then we have Rashad Bateman, who is not practicing today, may miss this one. And, again, if he's not in there, he's been dinged up. I just think that the target share, you're just looking at 35% target share for Mark Andrews probably. So good spot for him there.

Some of the ones that I like, too, that you called out. I think Debo was probably a little low to 61 and a half. Again, that game could feel wonky, but you're getting actually getting rewarded to take the over there, which I think is nice too. So again, fading all the touchdown ones always feels like a good spot to be like,

you get actually rewarded for taking under on Alvin Kamara this week. Again, it's probably a pretty good spot, but like just fading touchdowns in general is probably the right way to go so um i like that quite a bit justin jefferson as well over six and a half receptions is a look for me so my problem is good too my props tool has elvin camara under 16 and a half rushing yards is the strongest prop play of the week i've looked at that too what i mean what do you think it's just the matchup is good, but it seems like, are they really going to just like throw him back into the fire, give him like 15,

16 carries like right away? I don't know. I think that's what you're fading. I mean, I tried to do that with Delvin Cook last week, and I played the under on his rushing attempts, and it just backfired massively in my face at plus money. Like he's now like Delvin Cook's up to 17 and a half rushing attempts. Like they shouldn't have given him the ball 20 times last

week. You're terrible, but they just kept doing it uh dennis allen just announced breaking news that dalton is starting yeah and we also have uh that on mac jones too looks like mac jones is out so we're dealing with uh bailey zappy this week for the patriots so rashad bateman out michael thomas out uh some other ones as well there you go not super surprised on uh mt but yeah the bateman stuff looked like it was turning that way he didn't play a lot last week late in that game against baltimore and then you know missing practice on a friday not great so uh more fuel for any mark andrews they've been hanging mark andrews receiving like receptions at four and a half when it first drops um which is very enticing that guy should

be five and a half every week and then some spots maybe even six so uh even five and a half this week's probably a decent look hey do you think anyone will notice if i don't do a zozo championship preview next week uh no they will not i might do a challenge season preview instead. What would you rather listen to, Noonan? You know that I'd rather listen to a challenge than the Zozo. If Johnny Bonanza's back, we got like, you know, I don't know. There's some exciting people coming back this season. I'm excited about the challenge.

What is the Zozo? What is that? It's a golf tournament. It's the tournament in Japan. It's a nap. Good. No. It's a Rio four under. I haven It's, nah, it's good. No. Oh, Griot, four under.

I haven't seen the field. Is it a crap field? I assume it's Hideki and a bunch of jabronis. Maybe Xander plays. But, like, the CJ Cup's the next week, but that's in, like, South Carolina now. So if you go to the Zozo, you're not playing in that. Yeah. Yeah, I'd skip the Zozo.

Give yourself a week off. Talk some challenge. Get a new challenge season dropping. Good stuff. Hey, I need Cage Lee to make yourself a week off. Talk some challenge. Get a new challenge season dropping. Good stuff. I need Cage Lee to make a birdie here on this par five. Connor, are you a challenge guy? Again, I don't even know what that means. I mean, I literally tail just like random some of your stuff here.

Oh, the challenge. Do you know what you want to challenge? What's the challenge? I don't even know what that is. Holy shit. Are you some sort of loser? Yes. Honestly, in terms of golf, yeah. You ever see me on the...

It's not golf. What are you talking about? We're talking about the challenge. I don't know. What is the challenge? It seems like you don't know things. Maybe I don't. I'm uncultured.

Well, enlighten me then. What's going on? I mean, what is it? The single longest running reality TV competition show there is? Yeah. Oh, yeah. I don't watch reality TV. I don't, yeah. I don't watch reality TV. I don't have cable.

I don't watch any of that. That's that's that's for that's for that's for old. That's for old. That's for old. How do you watch sports? I have I have a website that I paid through Bitcoin. I can stream anything on my TV. Yeah, that's great.

You get to watch the games like a minute behind me. Oh, man. I'm given my hard time about this too it's such a is that like the amazing race or something i mean that's like the last you know tv show that i've ever watched and that was like 10 years ago so this is old school mtv real world row rules challenge the challenge it's like the the fifth major sport in this country oh man wish i could relate sorry guys man it's a good show it's not too late major sport in this country. Oh, man. Wish I could relate. Sorry, guys. Man. It's a good show.

It's not too late to get in on the challenge. I mean, you don't know the personalities and the backstories, so you lose a little bit of it at the top. Hey, they'll catch you up. It's a good competition show. Good athletic competition. Before next week, I will watch an episode of the challenge. How about that? Well, it starts next week, so you're in good spot.

Good spot to be. Yeah. It's my new season. Yeah. Man, come on, Connor. One of your streaming services has to have old challenge episodes. They're all in Paramount+. Oh, I do have Paramount+. Okay. Come on, man.

Get Maggie. Sit her down tonight. Get in there and get some old challenges. Maybe season 21, Rivals. It's a really good season. R best season yeah it's old but you know it's it's in there 21 21 no this is we're like season like 39 or something like that oh my god all right well i must have i may really miss the boat here they're spawning off into like putting it on network tv with people from other like they're doing like the game itself is blowing up where they're spawning off into like putting it on network tv with people from other like they're doing like the game itself is blowing up where they're taking people from big brother and

amazing race maybe some of your old amazing racers are in here so come on the challenge is good stuff man so all right five minutes on challenge just not enough but yeah pat should do you should do that next week instead all right i'll write that down challenge Challenge preview. I'll call my challenge people to come get on the show. Happy to fill in if you need any help. I'm excited. Do you have a breakdown? Have you watched this new season of Big Brother? Do you know the new season?

I do not miss a Big Brother season. Okay. I don't know anything about Big Brother except for the fact that I hate all of them. Okay. I don't watch Amazing Race or anything anymore. But yeah, I do Big Brother. I love Big Brother. Good show. All right.

Let's see. Thoughts on Saquon. Over 18.5 rushing attempts. Looks like we have juice out there from minus 119 to minus 135. I mean, obviously, they're going to have to lean on Saquon in a big way here with hobbled Daniel Jones we see what our numbers are we are at basically 21 attempts Pat any thoughts on Saquon that's exactly what I have Matt I don't see any sort of advantage on either side

tell you the truth yeah I don't think it's necessarily a bettable edge I think they feed him Connor but you know thoughts on on this prop it can just go very wrong really quickly if they fall behind by like 21 points I mean they like at that point you just like can't run the ball every play and that's what you need to get like 19 20 attempts but if the game is like close then he'll get there but i'm not gonna i'm not betting on the game to be close so yeah i mean if you want that take like an alt spread giants mire giants plus five and a half get it down from eight get some plus money there parlay it together is the same game parlay you probably get over two to one all right next we have kuba rush under 21 and a half completions um that seems like a not aligning with some of the thoughts we had earlier

um i don't like that yeah yeah our number is right there connor any thoughts no yeah i've seen some people smart people fading Cooper Rush this week and I don't really get it so uh you know I'm with you guys here I mean I agree with Pat though I mean there's gonna I think there's gonna be enough volume there where you're 21 and a half you're just you're holding your ass the whole time because I think they're gonna struggle to run and probably are even reluctant to do so so and it feels like as five and a half point dogs game script wise they're more likely to be in a spot where I need to throw so so and it feels like as five and a half point dogs game script wise they're more likely to be in a spot where i need to throw so even if you're not necessarily bullish on rush

or this pass catching cord i think just from a script standpoint you're probably looking at a good amount of attempts um how about under half a touchdown for baker at plus 155 sam fran's giving up two passing touchdowns all season. Um, I mean, I like the yardage one better. Yeah. I just don't mess with touchdown props very often.

Connor, what do you think? No, just, I mean, you can bet every Baker owner. I will support that, but yeah,

it's the art is a better one. I mean, it would take some crazy shit for him to head over versus the touchdown. I mean, maybe Christian McCaffrey gets under the one yard line twice and he throws a touchdown. Who knows? Yeah. I think that maybe Christian McCaffrey gets under the one yard line twice and he throws a touchdown. Who knows? Yeah.

I think that the under that we took on Baker and then there's some, like, if you want to really fade Carolina here, if you're not of the mindset of Pat and there's not something wonky happening here, like you can get, I think like under 10 and a half as an alt team total, like plus two 20.

That makes more sense to me than, than just the uh the touchdown prop like he literally can have the one touchdown in the pass here uh you could still hit that under so uh let's see what else we got here damian harris over on rushing yards from gabriel gabriel i don't know what the number is off the top of my head i don't know that it's even posted maybe it's posted since we've gone live. I haven't seen New England rushing stuff being posted yet. We have him at 72?

61.5. I mean, Detroit's terrible. Pat, any thoughts on Damien Harris or even Ramondre? If you have any thoughts. I got Damien Harris at 64.5. And I have 51.5 for Ram remondre but i have a sneaking suspicion this game is a huge under but that's me i do too i mean we've seen so many points in these

these games i think we were going to see a lot of like cover zero and stuff where like belichick tries to make a mess of of things for jared goff wants to limit Bailey Zappi doing anything bad. Hand the ball, keep the clock running. We know that they're not afraid to run too. Detroit's defense is bad, and their rush defense is bad, but it's really twofold. One, they've played all their games indoors so far. I think that's why Goff has looked so good.

Now we get to see him outside, a bit of cold weather. That's normally where you don't want Jared Goff. And last week, like the detroit defense they had to sell it to stop lockett and dk who were just eating them alive the moment they did that penny went nuts but he wasn't really doing anything before that and i just don't think the patriots can like challenge you downfield but bailey's happy good point i don't think they even bothered to be honest uh let's see thoughts on evans in the mid 60s from kev um i had not seen this drop but uh mike evans in mid 60s oh that's maybe as a uh as a pick them prop that's

why carter any thoughts on evans no i mean godwin started playing like a full role last week essentially now another week healthier julio's i mean who knows what julio doesn't matter i guess at this point but you know i think with evan stepping in there that impacts things a little bit here but i mean this should just be an absolute beat down here from tampa so uh i mean you basically have to hit this in the first half but the matchup's good so i don't know probably still lean over but i don't know it's not not my favorite kind of like godwin receptions if we can get that number here i think the way that the cover two style actually probably bodes well for Godwin over the middle versus boundary receivers like Evans. So I don't hate it.

Our projections are high. Evans is typically a guy that we project a little bit higher than most based off of how our numbers are. So, yeah, probably a look if you're looking on a pick-em, but not necessarily a prop I'd want to be chasing. You guys are wild. I watch sports strictly. Where do you find the time?

Like, I don't know. My wife falls asleep on the couch at like nine o'clock. So plenty of time for me to watch quality reality television. And the challenge is appointment viewing. You know, I don't have a lot of shows that I watch, but challenge is one I will not miss. So it's once a week. It's an hour. Not bad. You know, I don't have a lot of shows that I watch, but challenges when I will not, will not miss. So it's once a week, it's an hour. Not bad.

You gotta live your life, you know, get out, get outside of this, be able to put the sports down. We also do this. All of us do this professionally. So like, I don't like, I have to have something that's not sports sometimes just for peace of mind to not be plugged into, you know, grinding strokes, gain data and putting, and putting splits, and targets per route run. I have to have people being drunk and hooking up and doing ridiculous competitions.

K.H. Lee just made a 16-footer to make the cut. Yes. Nice. See? Live a little, Javon. You got to get in here. Nico Collins. Looking to fade Nico Collins' receptions.

I know this is something that you did last week, Connor. Any thoughts on Nico? Yeah, I would have liked it. Travis from our discord hit me up about it. It was minus 105. Lean under there. It was really sweaty last week, but got there at plus money. But now it's like minus 160 or something like that.

So, I mean, at that point, I'm not. He was getting like three to four targets, which at plus money is a great bet because you're getting. All you need to do is hit a 50% of the time. But at minus 160, I'm not doing that so good stuff gents all right that wraps us up for week five appreciate everyone as always uh pat where can everyone find your challenge show next week and all the rest of your stuff pat mayo experience podcast mayo media network video youtube at the pme on twitter I am there on all three. Subscribe.

Lots of great content, no matter what sport or unofficial sport that you're looking to track. Again, subscribe here on the YouTube channel for 4 for 4. Lots of great content. We continue to improve the stuff that we're doing on the YouTube side. Been really proud of what we've done in the last year or so. Making the transition here to YouTube. Again, Thrive Fantasy. again thrive fantasy thrive fantasy.com promo code four for four deposit twenty dollars uh use that promo and you can get a free betting

subscription to four for four access to everything on the site 240 value take a look uh for connor I'll see you all next time.