Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 6 2023 Player PROP BETS | Top Picks, Predictions & Odds

Episode Date: October 13, 2023

Welcome to the definitive guide for NFL Week 6 2023 Player Prop Bets, where we delve into the most insightful picks, predictions, and odds.In this episode, we navigate through the intricate world of NFL prop betting, providing you with expert analyses and strategies to elevate your betting game. Our detailed breakdown of player performances, especially a deep dive into Zay Flowers’ predictions and odds, aims to equip you with the knowledge to make informed betting decisions this week. We also explore various betting tips and strategies, such as understanding prop bet odds, identifying value bets, and effectively managing your betting bankroll, ensuring you’re well-prepared to place your bets with confidence.Timestamps:0:00 Intro5:07 Bryce Young Week 6 NFL Player Prop Bet8:04 Garrett Wilson Prop Bet Week 610:49 Ken Walker Player Prop Bet Week 614:23 Miami Dolphins Set to Explode18:45 Gardner Minshew Week 6 Prop Bet21:18 Travis Etienne NFL Betting Pick25:57 Week 6 Single Game Parlay Bet28:10 Tyler Higbee Player Prop Bet Week 633:51 Josh Downs Week 6 Player Prop Bet36:24 Week 6 NFL Tackle Props49:33 Audience Question1:02:44 OutroSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow John on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/sloprulesVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

Hello and welcome to Move Align Prop Drop Show presented by our friends over at FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan, back to talk about the best way and the most profitable way to bet on NFL football, and that is through player props. Live here at 2 p.m. Eastern every Friday on the 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel, giving you our favorite player props and taking your questions. So if you're hanging out with us now on YouTube, jump in the chat, let us know what your favorite prop is for the week. Let us know if you have, you know, some stuff's not out yet for the week let us know you have you know some stuff's not out yet you have questions something you have a lean on put in the chat we'll

get to as many as we can here at the very end of the show uh if you are joining us via podcast form we appreciate that joining us on youtube is the best way to get these numbers uh we are trying to do our best to make sure that you can get same price same number on these props they move very quickly and our audience is rabid for them. So we appreciate you hanging out with us. Either way, again, if you're not hanging out with us on YouTube, the podcast should be in your feed by Friday evenings. Either way, no matter where you're at, support the free content, likes, thumbs up, subscribe, rate, review, all those things go a long way in helping us quite a bit. Joining me here, as always, Connornor allen what's going on buddy not much coming off of uh an eight and two week

officially so it feels good to be great you know it's one of those weeks where you feel like you're like betting jesus like you know you just can't miss everything's you know on fire on top of that too last week in the show we were like not able to get out david montgomery props because we got news that jameer gibbs is gonna miss and I think people in the chat were just hammering, you know, over 15 and a half carries over 68 rushing yards. So, I mean, congrats to you guys because I didn't get enough action on it. And I know that we discussed playing it officially and missed that. So was it technically an even better week than our record shows? Yeah, that's fair. Yeah. It was some stuff that we couldn't get on um that's

okay that happens uh from time to time um same thing i think some of the alts on um you know a chain and there was some other stuff that like that moved a little bit but that's okay that's why we're here and um you know we want people to be able to take advantage of that um gentlemen also with us been giving out absolute bangers all season long from odds jam you can find them on twitter at slop rules john hi slop slop how we doing today ah just living the dream guys connor just said last week i gotta be honest with you i don't even remember last week to be honest i was trying to think like what was the games like they're all starting to blur together now is you know what i mean was was it two sundays ago was last sunday The only thing I do remember is your two tackle props that I took on the show

from the Raven Steelers game. They cashed like literally in the third quarter. It was good. We gave up four tackle props in the show last week, hit all of them. That's good. I don't want to say we don't lose on tackle props. Tackle props lose occasionally. Things happen. We seem to have something here. I'm going to give you a few more i got a lean on a few but i have two

official plays that just popped on the board just before that we're going to do on the show now here's the deal subscribers are going to get in first and here's what's going to happen subscribers are going to absolutely maul them um the juice that you're going to be paying to get these numbers is essentially what you could pay to get a betting subscription and join the Discord and jump in with these people. 404.com slash plans, get the betting sub, access to everything that we do at 444 and get access to the Discord, which is where Connor and I, Sharp Clark, we push those official plays through. It's already discounted because we're in week six. Uh, you can use promo code prop drop to get you an additional 25% off, which is a fantastic deal. Again, like it's going to, it's going to save you just the

juice alone on these, on these tackle props. So, um, if you're not familiar, this is the second show of the week, sharp Clark, uh, who just decides to just dive head on to the sharpest market that's out there in sides and totals. He does our Wednesday show with us as well. That's on Wednesdays again, 3 p.m. Eastern on the 444Bets YouTube page. And then again, anywhere you find the podcast. So two shows a week, props here today. Thanks for hanging out with us if you have not already done so. Again, take advantage. PropDrop is the discount when you get over to the 444.com slash plan to take advantage.

So no stale bread, nothing but the best lines available for you guys right now. Connor, the floor is yours. Week six, first play. What do you got for us? So this week I'm going with one under and one over. And so we're going to start, as always, with the over. Got to get slop you know going a little bit first did you see the first comment connor in the chat their first comment under a

clock baby let's go candace under a clock yeah i think he loves he all he's all about the unders that guy he was in the chat every single week talking unders he loves him can't get enough my my kind of people i've already played i think five or six unders in the discord already and uh they're gross they're sweaty but they win so you know what that's what we love to see and uh can't complain about that but let's hop into our my first play here again it's gonna be an over bryce young over 22 and a half completions uh in this spot here so the dolphins are gonna score they're gonna score fast and with the panthers missing both their starting safeties i think this is a really tough spot here for So the dolphins are going to score. They're going to score fast. And with the Panthers missing both their starting safeties, I think this is a really tough spot here for the Panthers to slow down the dolphins at all. And so with that happening, we're going to see the

Panthers in negative game script, Bryce Young throwing a ton. Now let's be honest, Bryce Young hasn't looked good under pressure when he hasn't looked good against teams that play like tough man defense. But here's the thing is that the dolphins don't do that at all. They're allowing a league leading 90.9% completion rate on throws under 10 yards. So from one to nine yards, 90% completion rate. And we're looking at Bryce Young right now, lowest average depth of target in the league, 5.9 yards. On top of that, we have Frank Wright coming in saying, Hey, we're going to simplify things. I don't know how much simpler it can get for Bryce Young, to be honest, considering he's already thrown thinking and dunking, but if we can get more of that, that's great. So I think we're going to see a lot of Adelaide Thielen. We're going to see a lot of Hayden Hurst underneath,

maybe some Jonathan Mingo even underneath, but yeah, I think we're going to get 23, 25 plus completions here pretty easily against this Dolphins team, especially with the Panthers playing catch up here, because I mean, this Dolphins team is going to score lightning fast against this Panthers team. Yeah, I like it quite a bit. The Thielen stuff has climbed out. It's crazy. We're getting plus money on Thielen at three and a half a little bit ago, and now he seems to be like,

Frank Grace talking about, hey, we couldn't run this play because Thielen was out, and he's the only one that can execute it. It's like an insane place that we are here. Yeah, what are your thoughts on that game, Slop? I don't mind that. I'm kind of interested in the Thielen one. Is that still three and a half plus money? No, it's five and a half minus 120 or so now.

If you don't mind, I'll log out responsibly. Yeah, I think that was like week one, right? Week one was like three and a half plus money. Higher, higher, higher. I heard Thielen in three and a half. I didn't listen to anything else. I was like, wait, what? Plus money?

Guys, I didn't see that. We should probably pet that like right now we should yeah that'd be a good one i like the look connor i like the thought behind it too because again it's it's quick scores like you look at like the leaders of like yards per drive points per drive but dolphins obviously are massively up there but when you look at like plays per drive comparatively they're weighed out because they do it in such like splash plays they're going to be able to do lots of stuff in this game uh there's some other pieces you know i'll touch on i think that correlate pretty well but i like that one quite a bit yeah i think that's it's it's like worth talking about like they are going to score fast and like i was looking at attempts for bryce young but it's 34

and a half and i'm like well the dolphins defense isn't good like you know like there's there's a there's a good chance that bry Bryce Young's actually to be able to be decent today. I don't know how like overall efficient he is, but if they can move the ball, like at all, he'll have enough volume to get there. It's just like whether they can move it and miles Sanders out too.

So, you know, probably fewer runs. I mean, they're not going to pray. They do not run Chuba Hubbard and LaVishka Chanel, you know, 30 plus times here,

but I really don't think that's, we're going to get in this spot. I'm here for some LaVishka, you know 30-plus times here, but I really don't think that's where we're going to get in this spot. I'm here for some LaVishka in the rounds and stuff like that. It should be fun. Slot floor is yours, sir. First one for week six. What do you got, buddy? I'm going to go Garrett Wilson over four-and-a-half receptions.

That's even money at DraftKings is where I got that. I'll be honest with you. I don't know what that's at right now, but it couldn't have moved that much. But anyways, he's got the Eagles. I don't think they're going to be able to run much on the Eagles, to be honest with you. I don't think Jalen Carter's playing, but I don't know that that totally matters. I think if anything, they get behind anyways. So at some point, we're going to see the Jets sell out, throw the ball. Everyone's going to say that he only caught three balls last week

against the Broncos and the Jets put up points. But Brees Hall ran for like 1,000 yards. So that's probably what happened there. I mean, if you can just hand it off, why throw it? I don't think that can happen this week. Again, the Eagles are past funnels still. I mean, I think only one team in the NFL has given up more receptions to receivers this season.

Don't quote me on that unless that's true, but I'm pretty sure that's true. So, I mean, go back and look through the game log. Some are ones. They eat against them. Also, I think I read somewhere Slay is either out or limited as well. So that's actually a problem. So, yeah, I mean, four and a half balls. I think it was the Chiefs where Wilson was targeted 14 times.

So, you know, whenever the Jets do have to sell out, they're going to look there. And five catches, I don't know about you guys, but I don't think that's a lot at all. I like this one a lot, actually. Did have it on my short list. Connor, any thoughts on it? I mean, obviously, it's it's you know an over tied to

zach wilson is is tough but i think slop did a good job highlighting why i think it makes a lot of sense yeah i was eyeing tyler conklin as well potentially great match up there in the inside uh again i just couldn't get there with the whole zach wilson thing like every time i go to click the button like you know a part of me just cringes i mean i was really excited to fade zach wilson to be honest but you know you, you have Jalen Carter missing, Darius Slade missing, their pressure rate is awesome. And Zach Wilson's garbage under pressure. But again, that changes a lot with you're missing some of your best players. So, and you know, Fletcher Cox is back, but he's injured still. I don't know if he's fully healthy. So like all of these things matter and add up where it's like, and Zach

Wilson's playing, you know, not, not a lot, but he's playing the best football of his career to date, which, you know, again, not saying much, but it's true. Yeah. And still, you know, he's still learning like massive first rate target rate for Gary Wilson, you know, just overall target share, massive. So still very much the guy there. So again, since you're, I saw it earlier, it's like minus 110.

So I think he's probably still hovering around there. I think that's a, I think that's a fine price. Even money, baby. Even money at MGM. Minus 120 FanDuel. Minus 110 DK. Okay. All right.

First one for me. I'm going with Kenneth Walker. Over 15.5 for his longest rush. This is minus 110 on MGM. You can also get that on, I bet, 365. It's minus 120 on mgm uh you can also get that on i bet 365 it's minus 120 on dk fine with that this is basically kenneth walker's uh it's what he does this is mo he's a home run hitting running back um the seattle offensive line struggles they've had pretty high stuff rate allowed so you know you see some like boomer bust stuff from Kenneth Walker from time to time. But when he gets free, dude hits dingers.

He ranks fourth in missed tackle rate per attempt on the season. 6.3% of his carries have gone for at least 15 yards. It's the eighth highest rate in the league. He was even better last year, 7.5. So this is kind of who he is. We know this is what he does. And it actually plays so well with his strengths and the weaknesses of the Bengals defense. They have really struggled this year.

2.1 yards per carry before contact. Second highest rate in the league. Only Denver's worse. 8.3% of the carries against them have gone for at least 15 yards. That is the third highest rate. So 15.5. We've seen some other guys that are out here like 16.5, 17.5. We're getting Kenneth Walker, who I feel like probably profiles the best for this

in the matchup that fits the best for us too. And we're getting a little bit of a discount. We're not having to really pay any juice for it. So Connor and I talked about this one on like Wednesday, sitting on it. We both liked it, hoping that we would hang around for the show. Luckily people did not attack it,

but I'm sure it'll move now. But yeah, Connor, do you want to expand on anything there on Kenneth Walker? I was muted there. No, I mean, it's, I almost messaged you before the show and was like hey we should release this one together because i was like i i love it i absolutely love it and i am also playing it so i mean this is something that literally we talked about early in the week and i'm like

we need to play this because the bangles run defense hasn't been good and kenneth walker the like we saw some zach Charbonnet creeping in. And then last week he only got like three or last week, we got four carries, some of the five carries until the game was in like garbage time there. And we, there's like the sweatiest over on Charbonnet ever. So we were able to get that. But I mean, I don't know.

I think that this Kenneth Walker overlook is a great, great look here. It's just like, it's going to hit. I mean, I almost think alter interesting interesting too i think we're looking at like 100 plus 80 plus if he rips a real long one i mean you're cooking there it was like the breeze all stuff last week was like he almost got there like his first carry like 13 yards it's like well that's okay like i don't i'm not really worried that he almost got there he's gonna have plenty of opportunities to almost get there again and i think there's like massive play volume ceiling in this game the seahawks i have like i think their opponents are having like 72 plays per game which is the highest in the league the

bangles we saw last week like 79 plays they're kind of back up they like still averaging like 63 on the season playing a little bit of pace even though seattle leans run heavy. I just think he's going to have opportunities here. He's had like 17, 18 carries every week, even with Charbonnet kind of sneaking in here a little bit. Slop, any thoughts on Kenneth Walker? The running backs always scare me is my only thought. But I'll be honest, I do like the longest rushes because, again, that can happen in one play instead of, you know, well, I mean, obviously it has to happen in one play, but you know what I mean?

Instead of just the grind of an entire game kills me. That's fair. Yeah, the alts is a good look too. I like that call, Connor. All right, Connor, back to you. Let's get a little bit off the board here. Let's go alts. Let's go ladders.

Let's go same game parlay. What do you got for us? It's a little spicy. Yeah, it's kind of a hot take, but it's something we already talked about a little bit here. I think the Miami dolphins dropped 50 on the Panthers this week. Yeah. So I mean, whatever, all, however you want to play that, I think that we can cook up another slop, same game parlay here because my, my concern, and I'm waiting for some Jeff Wilson props in this game. I don't know how to play it because

they can literally, however they want to win, they'll win. Like literally, however they want to win, they'll win. If it's in the running game, most people have 150 yards if they give them enough carries. If they want to pass the ball, they'll pass the ball. Like it's just a matter of what they want to do. So I think it's tough for me to pick specifically, but I'm pretty confident they score and they're efficient.

So, I mean, I think Dolphins over is just all across the board are awesome. I'll probably have a couple of different same game parlays there of like how we can, you know, focus on like, just like maximizing the range of outcomes here, because you can play probably like 40 plus, plus like a two over, plus a Jalen Waddle and Tyreek over, and probably be getting a really good plus money on that. And I think that's like very much in the range of outcomes. You can alt the team total over as well. If you want to want to start taking i mean the team total is about three and a

half yeah i mean you can get real wonky with this let's see yeah i'm gonna see how how high caesars let you go i think they'll let you just slide it over yeah what's the max you can slide the thing but like you just slide it i do like the slide thing too, so shout out to Seed just for that. That's fun. We're getting there. We're at home. Miami alternative total points. I can go all the way to 36 and a half. So no,

plus two 13. I don't know. I think you'd probably do that. You know, get there in the first half. Yeah. It's probably, I,

yeah, that's not a first half. That's a whole game too. Like, yeah, it looks like first half line, but yeah, I think I might,

I'll tweet out a same game, a couple of same way, probably isn't attached to the show after too, because I mean, there's some, some really good ones, I think. This is just going to be – you're going to be cooking. And throw in Bryce.

Throw in some Bryce pass attempts there if you can do it, or yards, worst case. Run them back. Bring back. Yeah. You can go on – if you can get down on points bet at all, points bet will let you get over 42.5 at plus 550. Wow. Really?

Yeah. Unfortunately, our friends at FanDuel only allow you to do all game totals. I don't believe they let you get – No, they don't let you mess with the number. Yeah. You can do all game totals, which honestly, I mean, might not be that bad. You got to bet on a little bit of Bryce, but I'm already betting on some Bryce anyway. So if you're looping that in, might as well have the max here.

Over 78.5 points, 40 to 1. I mean, why not us? Why not us? Well, Miami's done that by themselves already this year. Yeah, that's the point. All you need is, I mean, 50 to 30. It's not that outrageous. That's a lot.

That's outrageous, but yeah, it's not that crap. That could happen. I'm not saying it couldn't happen. I mean, it would be a wild game, but like we've all seen wild games. They've already dropped 70. Yeah. I mean, I know points bad. I say points bad.

And then, you know, people are like, oh, points bad. I've heard better things about like the fanatics pairing. I haven't necessarily experienced that. So yeah. So we'll see. Hopefully that happens for points bet so yeah i know like hey some people struggle on draft kinks some people struggle on uh you know fan duel some people struggle on rivers like it's you know tends to be

places by places um fan duel though our our sponsors they're fantastic uh no issues on fan duel so definitely and fanatics has uh or fanatics has michael rubin you know ceo like having parties with the kardashians and jim joe burrow and everything i mean that's that's pretty dope that's something you want to be in their corner for you know so whenever we can have a relationship with them i feel like that's probably optimal yeah i'll go to the white party yeah that's the party i could pull it off i would consider accepting we'll see slop go off the board here what That's the party. I could pull it off. I would consider accepting. We'll see.

Slop, go off the board here. What do we got, buddy? What's wonky for week six? This has been your banger section for you. Yeah, it's my favorite part. This is literally the only way I bet. Garner Minshew, I think he throws for 300 yards. It's like plus 580 at FanDuel and plus 550 at DraftKings.

That's not that crazy to think that that could happen. I mean, because the recipe's there. Jacksville has been decent against the run. Not great, but decent. So good enough there. That kind of helps us early. Jacksville could also throw all over the Colts' defense. So we have that too.

So if they jump out to a lead, we also have Gardner Minshew. I mean, a little revenge narrative there. So he's sprinkling some of that in there. Michael Pittman and Josh Downs are both viable options. Jacksonville gives up the passing yards to the quarterbacks. I think only four or five teams have given up more yards. Well, passing yards to quarterbacks than Jacksonville. So there's that. And I mean, Minshew's done it before last year. I don't know if you guys remember, but on Christmas Eve against the

Cowboys, he went for like 355. So I mean, he definitely had A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, but don't get me wrong. So that helps. But that happened. So whenever you look at it, it was 650 this morning on DraftKings. Now it's down to 550 there, but you can get 580 at FanDuel. That's not that ridiculous. So that's where I'm going to go. What's this guy? Someone's got plus 2,000? Mary?

Yeah, well, Miami total points, Bam. Back to Miami. DK, 51 plus points. 20 to 1, yeah. Oh, I was like, oh, shit. Back to Miami. Yeah, DK, 51 plus points. 20 to 1, yeah. What were you getting? I could see it. I was like, no, are you saying Minshew?

I was like, yes. I don't care. But, no, yeah, I think that happens. I don't think that that is that crazy. They're still playing with tempo, even without Anthony Richardson in there. Like, they're running, you know, both without Anthony Richardson in there. Like they running, you know, both those teams are actually top two and no hull rate.

So again, another spot where I think there's, there's ceiling because of the pace of play here. You just could see, you know, the play volume kind of take off. It's spicy Connor. I like it's a Minshew.

Any thoughts on a game, you know, Minshew in particular. I dabble with Minshew. It's just like, I actually be going back and forth because I do think they're going to throw a little bit more I've been eyeing an under in that game I'm not going to lie not that not in the passing game not in the passing game bullshit over bullshit team over that's why I got written down that's no no no I I agree with everything

slop said I also am eyeing an under in some uncertain situations in that team. I don't want to say anything because it's not playable yet. I don't want to have another David Montgomery situation where I'm sitting on the bank of thousands and just because I open my fat mouth over here, we lose out. No, I'm just kidding.

We'll play that officially in the Discord, but I agree with everything Slop said here. I think calvin ridley is in another good spot and he crushed him in week one like i i don't know i thought that the calvin ridley overreaction too in general was just kind of like crazy like everyone was like oh he's awesome and then oh he's dust for like three games and he didn't play well but i mean he missed a couple of long throws missed a couple of like passes like really short so i don know. I think that it'll be fine. I think that this Jags offense and Colts offense will actually be pretty solid. I like it.

I like it quite a bit. I'm listening to the same game. We need to build the same game parlay here. I like what we saw from Travis Etienne last week. I think the latter's here in play. Smashed last week against the Bills. 30 touches, 182 total yards. And then I mentioned again, I like the pace here.

You know, the no huddle rates are massive. They combined for 138 plays week one when these teams played. In that game, Tank Bigsby, that was his, like, most prominent work all season long. He took away some of the upside, I think. He had 21% of the carries in that game. He hasn't topped 11 since. We've seen 18, 20, 26 carries in the past three weeks from Etienne.

I think, look, I mean, when you start to get more work and you show that you've earned it, it's really hard for the coaching staff to kind of go away from that. So I think Etienne has kind of built in a little bit more of a floor for himself. And then his work in the passing game has been great too. He's been way more involved this year. Caught five balls when these teams met in week one. In general, he's averaging 3.6 catches per game.

It was just 2.1 last year, so it's a pretty big jump. And then you've seen the Colts give up 37 yards per game through the air to running backs. So combined yards, we can't find a lot of big numbers. DraftKings will give me plus 240 on combined 125 plus. You're getting better numbers in terms of laddering for just his rushing yards alone, which I still like. I mean, he absolutely dominated on the ground.

I think he will here as well. 80 plus you can get for plus 130 on Caesars. 100 plus is plus 275. DraftKings has the best number for plus 110. That's 370. And then FanDuel, obviously, 125 plus. Again, 138 or something like that last week, plus 580 on FanDuel for ATN. So love the spot for him.

I think he continues to eat and get the majority of the work while the rest of the guys are just kind of ancillary pieces. And, yeah, Connor, any thoughts on Etienne at this spot? I was hoping he wasn't going to be your under. No, no, no, no, no, no. It's not my under. Yeah, I mean, he's just been so good. Like that was something that I think a lot of people miss in the offseason

is he's just like an electric player. And I think people got all swept up in the Tank Bigsby hullabaloo. And, you know, I just don't really think that that was worth anything. So, yeah, Etienne's workload is awesome. The matchup's great. He's just so explosive that I think the alts there are pretty solid. What did you say, 2-plus, 240 on 125-plus? I mean, it's not bad.

Yeah, combined rushing and receiving. I don't like the AL. I wish there was a little bit more, but, yeah, I mean, I'm going to take the ceiling on the rushing alone too, getting almost six to one on him to get a buck and a quarter, which I think is a pretty good price. Yeah, I mean, a lot of it too is you get like the fantasy piece of it layered in too, right?

Where it's like, all right, he's not getting like the inside the five carries. I think that sometimes can skew people's perception of the player. And it's like, yeah, great. We play fantasy and that matters too. But I don't like between the twenties, we know this guy is a stud. he's for fantasy he's even getting some of those inside the five carries but i think that changes the perception of the player overall and now i think he's even kind of moving past some of that stuff so slop we're gonna build a uh atn minshu sgp i could i could even add somebody to that could correlate could correlate pretty well.

If you're thinking like, this is a good jag spot. I was even thinking Colts. Okay. Like a Josh Downs kind of move. That's what we got right here. Mr. Jay Rich,

86, 86, Josh Downs, a hundred plus anytime. Touchdown is 18 to one. That's pretty, that's pretty rich but hey you never know i look at the target share is like almost 26 in the last three games it's been really good with minshu in there we've had a decent size sample now with minshu playing a couple games

basically so yeah i don't hate that at all i wanted downs like over three and a half receptions it's like minus 160 yeah you can't do that yeah so yeah i like the spot for him for sure but yeah you throw in the same game parlay it softens the blow a little bit so don't hate that for sure all right what do you got well so before we go into my next play since i'm a man of the people i cooked up a sgp that is 600 to one. And I, it is only six legs. It is only six legs. SEP 600 to one 50 to win $30,000. So we're getting rich this weekend. Okay.

So Panthers, Miami dolphins game. It's on FanDuel. Shout out to our sponsors. FanDuel over 58 and a half points, total points. That's it. I almost bought himself.

Adam Thielen have eight receptions because you can alt ladder receptions on FanDuel now Again, shout out to FanDuel I love that I love it, love it, love it And then it gets a little bit dicier here So we got Tyreek Hill, 150 plus receiving yards We need that hit Jalen Waddell, 100 plus receiving yards

Tua, 325 Again, that's all correlated Tua's bombing And then we got Bryce Young, 250 leaving yards to a three 25. Again, that's all correlated. Like it's all just like two is bombing. Yep. And then we got Bryce young two 50. That's it. 600 to one. I mean,

for six, how do we not have a seven leg here? How do we not have any most stuff? Well, there's only so many yards that they can get. That's why I tried to, well, did you see the Denver game?

There's, there's, there's a limited amount of yards. It's available. Yards. The limit does not exist on yards. Ten touchdowns. I mean, should we be going for a million to one? I mean, this is like –

I'm just saying add a little Mostert. It doesn't have to be like 100 yards or anything crazy, but like, you know. I know it doesn't correlate well with the passing game stuff, but maybe Mostert. Yeah, I don't know. Yeah, maybe I'll dial back one of the passing games. Maybe take out Waddle and then throw in Mostert and then maybe add another. I don't think i'd add any more panthers legs though

because i mean the only guy who i feel confident catching the passes underneath is thielen um i mean maybe i should put thielen for like 152 or something like that because he might catch like 12 passes 100 plus yeah 100 plus i mean or 10 receptions i could have done that i could have gone higher on the ladder there so okay. I'd get behind 10 receptions. Hey, 50 to win 30 grand, though. Crazier things have happened, so let's ride. Okay. That's good.

I like it. Well, people are hanging out. We appreciate it. You guys are awesome. Jump in the chat. Let us know what some of the week six looks that you like. We'll get to as many as we can at the end of the show. Questions, thoughts, whatever it is. Yeah, we'll get to it many as we can at the end of the show questions thoughts whatever it is um yeah we'll get to it connor back to you play number three after we're talking

about a 601 play i'm about to drop a fat wet blanket you know just literally an under so we're going with tyler higby under three and a half receptions uh we're getting plus money on this uh at mgm caesars d, DK is light, minus 105 here. But if we look at this, so Higby was going under this anyways half the time before Cooper Cup came back. Cooper Cup comes back. He sees only three total targets, two receptions last week. And now in this spot, it's not like Arizona is like a bad matchup or plus matchup, but Philly was a great matchup for tight ends and he only got two catches then. And we know that Puka Nakua is fantastic against, uh, zone defenses. He's drawing like a 30 something percent target share so far this season. So we have that

factor. We have Cooper cup getting schema ton of reads here. So like, where does that leave Higby? So we're getting plus money on an under three and a half receptions. He has to get four passes for this, for this to bust. So, you know, I, I think this under here is pretty solid. Most projections have him around three anyway, so I think this is a good look. I mean, this is, I know, again, it's an under after we talked about a 601 parlay, but, you know, bringing us back down to earth here a little bit. I like it.

Slop, any thoughts there? He lost me on under. I don't even know what he said. No, yeah, Higby's a guy I used to like to take over, and he's not that guy anymore. It's just not there at all. And also, too, I don't know if you guys watched that Rams game last week, but Cooper Cup is officially back,

and I think Puka might actually be the Rams' tight end, if that makes any sense. He's a security guy. So, yeah, I don't, yeah, I don't know where Higby's targets are coming from. Yeah. It sounds like you just talked yourself into an under slop.

I mean, I would, I would rather lose than bet an under, so I would rather lose money than, but I will say, I think that's probably good. I would never bet his over put it that way. Yeah,

that's fair. I'll take it. Feels like a win. Yeah, it is. It is. I'd rather lose than bet the under. It feels like a loss. How about, Slav, if you, maybe, you know, Monday night, Thursday night,

maybe you got bowling with the boys. And, like, the TV is going to be on. The game is going to be on. You know, you'll be able to be in, but you're not gonna be in it. Like you are on like a Sunday. Right. So like,

you don't have, you're not sweating the play normally. Like if you got like a really good line on an under where you know that you didn't have to actually like really watch, cause you're going to be busy like rolling at two 91. Okay. You may be firing under. Strong,

strong. Strong. Maybe. There was a time it was actually Connor that talked me into a Josh Allen under because he was at the last game of the season, one of those week 17. Well, it would be week 18 now, but week 17 back then where he wasn't going to play. And then last year he got me with a Viking stack on prize picks where they listed literally all the skill players you're like dude

they're only gonna play a half so you'll take an under on the over of how bad the line is i i don't even know what i'm trying to say there but like i tried to like make it an over in my head and it kind of worked but still that's the only way when i knew the guy just would not be on this like the field like okay i'll take that no it's like you look up you see like I got this under there's no chance this guy get these yards and you look up when you're out bowling or whatever ruined your night you look up your guy catches like an 80 yard touchdown like that's like what the fuck just happened like why yeah it's it's not fun I mean I will say though so we we lost Javante Williams under yesterday but it was quick

it was like a nice little painless death. You know, you ripped off a 10-yarder when, you know, they didn't wrap up. He ripped off an 18-yarder, and I'm like, all right, we're done. You know, it's fine. There is nothing worse than losing an under on the last play of the game, which has happened multiple times to me in the last few years. Literally the last play of the game. That's how those happen.

I just throw the cash on the last play. You know what I mean? You know, like you said earlier in the year, like Corlin Sutton last year, he owed us. So he owed us last week. and that's how those happen i just rather cash on the last play you know what i mean you know like you said earlier in the year like corlin sudden last year he owed us so he owed us last week he paid us all back like he paid us back and more so we're that's the only way you can get money back from some guys too because you'd never take their over no yeah you know like like higby if he owes you money the only way to get your money back is the under and that's it there's no chance i can't pay you back any other way you can maybe get you maybe get a higby receptions over or something like that be your only uh

it just looks like it looks like it's like gonna be the security blanket guy and he can run routes wherever they want him to so that's just scary because the cup is literally like every time it's like this place for cup this place for cup next place for cup when's hate you get his i don't think he does it's true yeah i liked the puka his receptionist opened at five and a half plus money um but like i think just one book and now it's like still five and a half and it's like minus 170 everywhere yeah it's crazy stinks like that one quite a bit too but uh that's part of it too like you know and a half and it's like minus 170 everywhere yeah crazy stinks like that one quite a bit too but uh that's part of it too like you know too if you're new here in terms of

like what connor and i will put out to subscribers we want to make sure that people have optionality for the most part people have fan duel for the most part people have draft kings some people have limitations there not everyone can get down everywhere so we want to have as many outs for people as possible and uh sometimes we get caught kind of holding the bag kind of like the david montgomery thing last week we just kind of were waiting for someone else to join the party at 65 and a half or 63 and a half i think and then all of a sudden 73 and a half and he still you know crushed it but hey that's kind of how we do it uh slop back, back to you, buddy. Third one for you.

All right, so we mentioned how you can ladder receptions at FanDuel, and I just looked at my favorite game, the Colts and Jaguars, and guess whose name is up there? Josh Downs. I know you said you wanted to go three and a half, but it was way too juice guess what five is plus 116 so me that's a move i mean again if if i'm right that they get behind have to throw or just can't run and have to throw which i mean i don't know how viable that is but getting behind

i think is definitely viable uh josh downs mean, the last time they had a game together, Minshew targeted him like 12 times. That was against Baltimore. He caught eight balls. I think we'll see some of the shorter stuff from him, too. Mix them with some of the longer stuff. So if you want to take his yard, you can. But the shorter stuff, that's – I mean, those are just free. So five reception, that's not a big day's work you know i'll take

that all like i said he's seeing more work so yeah there's another leg we can build a colts jags same game parlay here all the way the moon yeah i would love to see if they'll let me throw in some uh some tas i think uh i think draft kings let you throw in tackles and assists on the uh same game parlay. It's the only thing our friends here at FanDuel really need to do. We need tackles. We need tackles. We don't have tackles.

It's a defensive tab. It's no tackles, though. No, it's like punts and sacks and punts sometimes. So, yeah. Come on. Get on board, guys. So, yeah, I like it. I like the down stuff.

I like his slot against the jags i think works out really well as well um all right there's a few different ways that i want to go for my third one we also always talk tackles here as well some of the stuff i like for my third one is speculative it's not even out yet like as gross as it is gross as it is i kind of like robert woods stuff this week um in the slot no tank dell slot against the Saints is a huge buy. I think they were just – he missed some practice time with his ribs, but I think they were just – they knew Tang Dell was out, so I think they were really trying to handle Robert Woods carefully.

So I'm interested to see. His yardage number is out. It's not super exciting to me. I think receptions would be appealing. He's seen at least six targets in every game. Some of the other stuff I like is – I like Mostert ladders and stuff. Like that was the ladder section of the show. I think some of the Monday night stuff is interesting.

That's Monday night. Like, you know, do we want to get into Tony Pollard and Keenan Allen yet? We don't have those lines. I think those are good spots though. So we're going to jump right into tackles. I'm going to give you a speculative one and then we're going to play to official plays.

Again, subscribers are getting these first and they're going to cook them. So I apologize. Even as you listen live, it's probably, by the time it comes out of my mouth and through your speakers, probably going to be on the move. Again, you want to get the subscription, 444.com slash plans, promo code, prop drop, get your 25% off, you get these first. A line that's not out that I like that's going to be interesting is Ryan Neal, a friend of the show, kind of one of our original tackle buddies last year while he was with Seattle, now in Tampa.

Tampa Bay's front seven's a problem. No one's really tried to run on them other than the Eagles. Eagles ran 40 times for 201 yards. They're dead last in ESPN's run block win rate. They've really struggled. And again, they've been in these kind of advantageous game scripts where teams have had to throw against them, and they've been able to kind of shut teams down.

Neal had 10 in that game against the Eagles, by the way. He plays a ton of his snaps in the box, around 35%, 45%. I think we probably see 6. a half here six and a half or so the juice is good i like that over maybe even consideration at plus money on seven and a half if we move that um that would be my ryan neal is not on the board but we like it quite a bit one that i like and we're playing we're playing it right now best place to get it is caesars so if you have caesars this is the best place for this current line. Also available on Bet365. It's also available on Barstool. It's available on MGMs, juiced out a little bit over there. So you

want to get the Caesars line if possible, because it's already minus 131, a little juicy. But Foye Luokan is a linebacker for the Jags. He's actually the back-to-back tackle king. He's led the league in tackles the last two years. Great matchup. I'm going to play over 9.5 tackles and assists for Aluokan in this game that we've talked about extensively for some of the same reasons. I like the pace of the game. Good scorekeeper advantage for Aluokan at home here.

The Jags tend to lean very generous with assists to their home team. We have Aluakon. Last week was the first time all season he fell below this number. We've had a bunch of 13s, 12s. It's kind of what he does. He's fantastic. It's a great run defense, and he's kind of the anchor there. Absolutely love it.

I have him for 10.7 in the spot. You can get, I think, plus money on six-and-a-half solos, which I think is also worth a look if this juice moves out too quickly for you. But Aluakon over nine and a half is a fantastic, fantastic look. Where's that at? Caesars, 365, MGM, and Barstool. I don't know why DraftKings, they have not posted this guy all year long. Jaguars Colts?

Jaguars Colts, Aluakon. Yeah, it might have gotten pulled already. I'm looking – I'm trying to bet this. all year long. Jaguars Colts? Jaguars Colts. Yeah, they might have gotten pulled already. I'm looking. I'm trying to bet this. I'm literally trying to bet it. Yeah, I always bet these live during a show. Well, we'll get it eventually. He'll come back.

He'll come back. He's not even on. I still see him on Caesars. I don't see him here. That was our set. Got locked very quickly on Caesars. Okay. Damn, they locked us out. Our friends at Caesars. Oh, damn you, Caesars i don't see him here i got those r's that got locked very quickly on caesars okay damn they locked us out our friends it's teasers oh damn you caesars well that's their bastards uh all right give me a minute let me get people uh let me double check where the next one is in case this

is moved because we don't want this to happen again i like when people can get the prop um again here's the thing i pushed out to subscribers before I told everyone about it So those guys get in there and they are ready to go And you know Hey we want to take care of our subscribers We appreciate our It's crazy not to be betting these guys Like seriously

It's like a 65% hit rate over two years It's been pretty good I'm not going to lie Yeah over like 100 something plays it's not like 20 plays literally 100 something over a lot i had the amount of time that i spend on the projections is embarrassing um but you're an absolute psychopath but i mean i mean you got to feed your family though right you got to feed the family you got to feed the family jackson's got to have a good christmas, we need that for him. He's gonna know what Christmas is for the first time.

So, alright. I'm hoping actually the crazies work in our favor here. This next one, I wanna play, but it moved the wrong way for us, and now it's a little too juicy, and I'm hoping that we can I'm gonna talk about it, and hopefully people

are gonna move the line for us. Same game, Zaire Franklin, linebacker for the Colts, currently leads the NFL in tackles. It also leads the league in solo tackles. So he's not stuffing the stat sheet with assists here. I want to play over seven and a half solos for Zaire Franklin. That's on MGM. It's on DraftKings. kings it's on 365 typically you can find these on pickup sites it just moved to six and a half and minus 150 so if you're good with some juice if you want to jump in here and move this bad boy for us so we can get the plus 115 yeah uh it's it's a great number i mean i have him for um almost 9.6 solos in this spot he's he's not had less than seven in any game this season he's been fantastic and actually

it's a bad scorekeeper matchup for him and the colts and what that means is like when they deal out assists they're a little stubborn with the assist that doesn't matter with solos solos are solos and this guy's had like just absolutely double digits he had 15 solos in week one when these two teams played uh you guys are moving it right now i see it lighting up on my screen um they're incredible against the run this is a big again a big number but again we're taking advantage of uh of a guy who's just in on every play he He's also really bad in coverage, and teams target him. So he has a pretty sizable amount of coverage tackles as well. So it's not just him stopping opposing running backs.

It's tight ends. It's running backs looking to get Franklin kind of manned up. So we're going to take advantage of 7.5 in the solo market when it moves there. Again, currently 6.5 juiced out a little bit in most of the books. That's a good one. Hopefully, you guys can move that for us. Hey, I like the 6.5. If you have no problem with juice, go for it.

You can tie it. If you like parlays and you want to tie it with some other stuff, there's some other stuff on the board. If you want to do some of that stuff, I know some of our subscribers like to tie it to the Bill's Moneyline or whatever because that's like minus 900 or something like that. If you have an appetite for those things, go for it. So those are my two plays here in the Jags-Colts game with the two alphas, Franklin and a little guy.

Might be one of my favorite things each week. It's like a bonus, my bankroll that I just get. I don't even sweat them, but then I just wake up on Monday and I'm just like, oh, I got extra money in my account from the tackles. I always say on Pickett later on, it says how much you have out and what you're up with. I'm like, wait. I don't remember doing all that.

It's like, oh, yeah, there's a bunch of tackles in there. For me, it's like 80% of the card. Yeah, it's quite small of yours. Just lost a game. Moving on back, he's 9.5 minus one 51 at Caesars now. Okay. So at a certain point like that, if we can get a plus money on solos,

we're probably where I want to go. If that's a thing, if you have an option in the end, like Caesars doesn't offer solos, which is a bummer. MGM draft Kings, bet three, six,

five. I know, I don't know what the others others there's something else that i'm missing that's kind of a different site that offers solos and i know the pick'em sites sometimes do too but yeah i know draft kings doesn't want to post luikon they have not posted them all season long yeah they don't post them not even solos you ever dabble on the assist i have not dabbled on assist only i have not because uh how to your edge i would think that that might be a thing yeah so that's kind of why i moved into the solos

a little bit um we'll start tracking assist a little bit it's been tricky i see a comment from brian too about sacks um i did start to model sacks a little bit. I spent so much time on the tackles. I'm serious. This is literally what we do full time. And I still don't have enough time to get to sacks. Sacks are tricky. The team level sacks are interesting to me. That was what I was doing was I wanted to take advantage of prize picks, team sacks. They've taken that off the board. They've moved to individual people on the sack. So that's a little harder because it's almost like a touchdown thing where it's a little bit more of a singular event where I feel like you can have an edge in that and still kind of miss out.

So I would love to get team sacks as a thing. If you know a book, I don't know, I don't have any books domestically that I think do team sacks. So I do think that there's an edge there in tracking time to throw, pressure rates, some of those things that team sacks. So I do think that there's an edge there in tracking time to throw pressure rates. Some of those things that are quarterback specific. So yeah, we're not there, but tackles,

we love tackles. We crush. And we already, before I was already six official plays in the discord before today's show tackles only Friday nights. Subscribers know is very tackle centric. Once we get that final injury report on Fridays, we go at it pretty heavily on Friday night.

So I hope you guys are able to get down and join us a little bit. And yeah, let's push that Franklin number out to 7.5 and plus money. Love it. Yeah. He's at 6.5 minus 175 at DraftKings. That was from minus 166. And when I first got on that screen, that was changing. So I don't know what it was prior to 166, but I'd be willing to screen that was changing so i don't know what was what it was

prior to 166 but i'd be willing to bet it was a lower number yeah so it's moving in the right direction we'll get it i think that we should talk about this because the bears right now uh woof this is rough so we have basically their whole backfield out so roshan is out khalil herbert is out they're starting running backs going to be, what was it? Deonta Foreman and Darrington Evans are going to be their backfield. And then on top of this, Lucas Patrick, their starting center has also not been cleared yet. So I doubt that he's going to play. I mean, not that he's all that good anyways, but you know, you probably want some continuity up front. So I don't know. I mean, I think that I would consider honestly taking a Bears running back

unders no matter what the line is. We're talking like in the 30s, 40s. It's probably worth an under here because they're not going to be able to get any push up front. They're not going to be. I mean, down to form is not all that good anyways. He was like, you know, or third string for them. So I don't know.

I think this Bears team is in rough shape here. But Fields and Mooney, I mean, could be worth a look. I just like haven't played. I've seen Bears team is in rough shape here, but Fields and Mooney, I mean, could be worth a look. I just haven't played. I've seen a lot of people playing some Fields over, and I think it's reminiscent almost of the Zach Wilson overs. It's like, player has a couple of good games and everyone forgets that they're complete hot garbage at what they do and playing football. So it's one of those things where like, yeah, sure. You can play Justin Fields overs, but he's also like a terrible quarterback in a lot of ways. So, I mean, Hey, teach their own. Well, Justin Fields, if you're watching, thank you for what you did for me last week.

I'm thirsty. Thank you, God. Cause I was very nervous going to bowling with a Justin Fields ticket in my pocket. As you should be. Somehow it worked out. Now, that usually does not work out well. That's not a good look. But I'd be more confident in him if I think it was going to – I think it's raining this weekend there.

And also, Justin Jefferson's not playing for the Vikings. So, I would like the Vikings to start dumping points on him and get into some sort of weird game script where he could show up with a great stack game even though he didn't play well. But I don't know that that's going to happen. Yeah, I mean, we got boots on the ground. The game's in Chicago, right?

So we'll have a... I think it's supposed to rain. I don't know that for a fact. What a Midwest weather. Yeah, I saw a bunch of weird weather, a lot of wind everywhere, weird stuff like that. supposed to rain. I don't know that for a fact. What a Midwest weather. I saw a bunch of weird weather, a lot of wind everywhere, weird stuff like that. Like I said, no Jefferson. If the Vikings start dumping

points on them, I don't mind a super low number on a quarterback like Fields. Again, I'd want to know that they're chasing points pretty much all night. Because that's the only way you're going to get there, really. A lot of times.

I lean towards the over in this game. But at the same time, I feel like there's a very ugly situation where if the Vikings don't pour points on them, maybe the Bears try and run the ball a little bit more than they should. Maybe the Blitz gets home a couple times and we're watching a really ugly 2017 game or 17-14 game, and every single under hits across the board. 100%. And you do not want to sit there and watch that stuff

with the over tickets in your pocket. That's like the worst. It's just torture. It's just like, God, I knew this was a bad move, and now I've wasted three hours of my day. I could have been having a great day on Sunday, eating, enjoying life, instead I'm watching some bullshit game

that I have no chance of winning. And I knew it going in. So yeah, that's a stay away spot. We just don't know the dynamic of the Minnesota offense without J. Jeff too. Like, you know, what's that going to look like? And do they lean a little bit more run heavy? There's just a little bit of unknown in that.

So, all right, got a few minutes left. We'll jump into the chat here. Let us know what some of your thoughts are. If you have not already done so, looks like Capwise is out here hitting fields, rushing attempts over nine and a half, minus 120 on Caesars. I think kind of speaks to the point there that Connor's talking about. Let's see what else we got in here.

We talked about Josh Downs. Looks like we're looking at Debo over 37. I'm guessing that's receiving yards. Minus 107. Bad weather. Short passing game. Yeah, there's lots of, again, this is one of those element games. We talked about this one at length in our game preview show.

It's like I don't know what to make of the Browns defense. I think we all agree that it's very good. They've also played some pretty bad offenses and taken advantage of it. But if like wins a problem here, do I want anything that's tied to overs in the passing game? I don't feel great about it. Debo is a low ADOT guy, so I think that that's the point

that Brian's trying to make here is that Debo doesn't necessarily win 10 plus yards down the field. Connor, any thoughts on Debo or anything in that game at all? Yeah, I feel pretty good about the Niners winning here, but I do think,

so something was interesting. Cleve TA brought it up on Twitter, tweeted out a graphic of how Kyle Shanahan offenses have done against Jim Schwartz defenses over the last, like, I don't know, since like 2016. Um, and basically every single one of his star, like games, they've had like a lower success rate, lower EPA, uh, against Jim that like that season compared to

like that game. So like they've struggled that game relative to the other games that season. And so in this game here where I think the Browns defense is solid, but probably a little bit overrated that we probably don't see like a 40 point exposure from the Niners or even 30 points. But I still think that like, that's a lot of that's already reflected in the market because I mean, their team total is 22 and a half, you know, like this is really low. So in terms of players though, I was reading something about man zone splits and that Ayuk was kind of the guy for man.

Debo is a little bit more of a zone guy, at least based on what I remember reading. So that's one concern there. But I don't know. I think that that whole receiving core, especially in a game where, I mean, Purdy's passing problem is 200 yards. That is just like crazy, crazy low, given everything. So for me, it's kind of just a stay away for now, to be honest. Yeah. Yeah, there's just a lot of unknown like i feel like you'll be able to make some

better decisions on sunday morning when we have a sense of really what the weather is and if it's problematic and um you know this time of year in cleveland it tends to go sideways for sure so um see mr j rich feels like kj osborne being overlooked again we could have weather in chicago as we talked about too any thoughts on kind of uh how that kind of plays itself out slop now that we have no justin jefferson what do we think of the minnesota passing game the uh the only real notes i have on that it says no and it says stupid game and i have that for two games and it's uh san francisco game and then that bears game so i don't have thoughts i i immediately said you know what there are like a million games sunday so you could just find something else you know what i mean like there's

no need to put yourself through what's probably gonna happen unless you're going to that game or something like that then like you're stuck but yeah i there's no like odds but the first thing i say odds point no like if we're playing word association like what word do you say like no no no so yeah there's that it's fair yeah you don't have to bet on every game no i get like do i don't have time like you just game. No, again, like, dude, we don't have time. Like, you just talked about time. You got to find your spots and just go in there. You know what I mean? But, like, you can know right away where it's like, you know what? Even if I dive, I'm going to galaxy brain myself into, like,

I don't even know what. You know what I mean? Like, you're going to get to the game time. You're like, dude, I don't even know what got me here. Like, I don't even know how I went down a rabbit hole to end up with a KJ Osborne prop on a Sunday. That's a Monday night thing. You know what I mean? Knowing that you lean overs exclusively as well,

you're not finding overs in that game either. No, not Osborne. Yeah, you're not. It's also priced in. We're looking at a Jordan Addison prop, like 54, TJ Hawkins is 54. I mean, that's the issue is that Osborne is going to play probably the most snaps, but then he's been out targeted by Jordan Addison. And also last week when Justin Jefferson left,

Brandon Powell came in and saw six targets like right away. Like who the, who's Brandon Powell? Like what's he doing out there in targets? Not for nothing though. If we get like a, like a two and a half plus money on Powell, like if they mess up, that's what maybe. I think his prop is like 20 something right like 25 that's all the yards but i don't want the yards for him i want the receptions he's the guy that's gonna catch one behind the line scrimmage he gets slammed on

the ground immediately you know what i mean it's like that sucks like when you got the yardage you're like man i knew he'd be involved except he's now gotta get seven more yards because he just got dropped for seven yard loss but the receptions i'll take on him i'll think about it at least i will go with this next one from the cw uh is cup 88 and a half too high uh i don't know i don't think we think it's necessarily too high slop. What do you think about Cooper Cup? Me? No. Yeah. There's no chance I'd go under that.

That's too high. No. Like, did you watch like last week? You're just like, wow. Right away. Like it's he's okay. You know what I mean? I think the number was in the fifties.

Wasn't it? Like, yeah. It was five and a half. Yeah. Like 120 plus.s, wasn't it? Yeah, it was. It was five and a half receptions. Like 120 plus, and it was like plus 600, something crazy like that. So that means his line must have been the 60s. Yeah. All right, guys.

88's not too high for him. I'm telling you, it gets out of control really fast when you take a Cooper Cup under. Jeff Wilson, doubtful now. Oh, baby. Mostert, 67.5. What do we think? I mean, I feel like I was eyeing this anyways, but I feel like we should hit this.

1,000%. All right. I'm firing it up in the Discord. I mean, this is really good. That would be a joint. All right. I i mean i'm just going to push it without any explanation uh i think caesar's has it too let's double check here let me see what his i had the notes beforehand let me see so mostert um 100 plus was 295 on on DraftKings before the show. 120-plus was 6-1.

That's – I mean, Carolina's 4.8 yards per carry, sixth-highest explosive rush rate allowed in the season. It's a look. It's a look for sure. So, yeah, most of us – All right, I'm firing right now. I thought they were going to definitely be limiting him either way hit this uh ward guy brian ward i like i like where his head's at yeah i like it too you see that right yeah try and multitask here slap host a show it ain't easy

at the same time uh brian wants to talk about the Tennessee defense. I think it's a good question. T.R. Tartt, one of their interior defensive linemen, questionable. They were gashed on the ground without him with the Colts last week, looking to take Gus Edwards over 41-and-a-half if Tartt is ruled out. He's looking to maybe get in that play before hand. Connor, you look mad. Are we unable to fucking hold it?

God, they pulled it while I was firing it up. God bless America. Yeah, it's still a DK, but Caesars pulled it. Okay, go back to DK. All right. I mean, yeah, this is going to be iffy on it. This counts officially, but we'll give a little poll of our subs and see who's able to get. All right. I mean, yeah, this is going to be iffy on it. This counts officially. But we'll give a little poll of our subs and see who's able to get down on it.

I subscribe to these theories of one man really, really hurting a run defense whenever he's gone. Grady Jarrett, I remember for the Falcons a few years ago, was kind of one of those guys. If he was out, you're like, okay, well, that running back's definitely in play. Albert Hainsworth was a guy back in the day. If that D tackles out, then every number that you have on their rush defense is worthless because it's not –

Right. But I don't know. Yeah, right. No, this is a good point here from Brian specifically. I think he's brought this up in our Discord too, so shout out to Brian. I don't know. I mean, I haven't played it. I already have kind of a lot in that game.

I took some Zay over, some Tandy. I need this to go well because I have two tackles on the Tennessee side, so we need Gus Buss and company to run all day. So if the defensive line wants to get out of the way for my tackle guys behind him to clean up, then, uh, then we're good to go. I was able to get down on DraftKings just now on most and some alts. So I'm hoping people are able to. Yeah, we'll, we'll pull, uh, we'll, we'll talk about it and see if it's official, but I hope some of you guys in the chat here, Steve said they pulled it all because all of us were maxing it while Connor was typing. Yeah, honestly, I don't even know how there's a better way to do that. Um, but, uh, cause I don't know. I feel like some people probably got it. I mean, I got some action on DK. Um, but you know, what are you going to do? Just not say it and then no one gets it? Or, you know, say it and then a couple people get it at least? You have to say it.

Like, it's a free – everybody knows the deal. Like, you know what I'm saying? Like, it's anyone's first day. This is what happens. Like, you put out the play. Some guys get it. Some guys don't. But there's more plays behind it.

Everybody's going to be fine. You know, appease the subscribers as much as possible. Brian wants to know about Bijan. Bijan over 69.5 minus 114 on FanDuel. Obviously, the Bears were able to run quite a bit on Washington. Yeah, I mean, the Texans did a good job kind of bottling up Bijan last week. It's tough, it's tough. The limited amount of carries.

Bijan stuff for me is like, I'm probably more interested in splash play stuff with him. Just because like, I want to bet on the talent versus, you know, the cumulative stuff. Kind of like you were talking about earlier, Slop, where once you get into these 70 plus yards, et cetera, for these backs, you need, you know, you need volume and efficiency. What are your thoughts on Bijan?

I don't like it. I would think about receiving yards with him, but they've already beaten us to him. His numbers are so high for a running back, and I'm always looking for that 10 yards more so I get plus money at FanDuel. So it's very tough for me to get anywhere on him just because again, like you,

you're, you're going to need a lot. My last one we'll take here. Addison, a hundred plus receiving yards. Us leaning into it here. Plus four 70. Look,

I think I want to know the weather for sure. I want to know this. I want to know what's going on Sunday morning before I fire fire into this because like you could fire into this today thinking you know the weather uh no offense to the weatherman if there's any of you out there they're not great out there uh again it seems to be a difficult job to nail accurately and we can have bad weather yeah it's like you predict how hard that is you know what i mean yeah we don't know yeah we're looking at the same websites that anyone else can be uh connor any thoughts at Yeah, it's like you predict how hard that is. You know what I mean? We don't know. Yeah, we're looking at the same websites that anyone else can be.

Connor, any thoughts off the top? Let's assume we have good weather. Any interest in Addison going bonkers here? Yeah, I mean, plus 470. I would much, much rather take alts on Addison than like a straight up like binary like 54 and a half because I think he's either probably smashing like 70 80 90 100 yards or he's gonna go for like four for 48 you know and you're gonna lose and be tilting your face off so um i also think kind of the same with hawkinson like i think if you can play hawkinson

alt reception overs like i think you'd easily have like 10 catches here but again you could also have his line is five and a half so like in my opinion it's either happening big time or probably not at all. Oh, this is what I was waiting for too. I thought we might have it again. Uh, it looks like Gibbs is going to be out for Detroit.

So we're going to have David Montgomery eat again. Already talked about the, uh, defensive line issues. I think the Tampa Bay is going to eventually have, uh, exposed. And I think Monty can do that here. They want to run the football.

They can run it really well. Tampa Bay is, uh, I think their-long metrics show better than what actually the unit is and montgomery could absolutely crush again so we got 15 and a half 16 and a half carries crush it uh and then you know you could sell me on some alts on montgomery here you know golf outside they want to run the football i think they lean on that here too. Could be positive game script. So, yeah, that's definitely an interesting look. We'll be kind of eyeing here when that market starts to form.

All right. Good stuff, guys. We're at our hour mark. Felt like that one flew by, but good stuff as always. We appreciate it. Slop, tell everyone where they can find you and all your stuff. OddsJam, OddsJam, OddsJam. Best pricing tools that I know of, to be honest with you,

and I scour the internet for any edge I can find betting-wise. If you want free two weeks, promo code Slop at checkout. When you go there, it's free. I mean, you cannot lose. It's free. Just go try it. You'll see what I mean. It's awesome.

Yeah, check that out. OddsJam. Find Slop on Twitter, at Slop Rules. Again, don't forget to take advantage. You got mad today. You'll see what I mean. It's awesome. Yeah, check that out. OddsJam. Find Slop on Twitter, at Slop Rules. Again, don't forget to take advantage. You got mad today. You got frustrated. You couldn't get the tackle numbers. You couldn't get some of the other stuff that we were doing.

Get in the Discord. Get a betting sub. Again, access to everything we do. So if you want articles, tools, rankings, you're still grinding your season-long team, you get access to everything at 444, including all of our betting content, access to the Discord where all these plays are pushed out first.

And I think it's a great like-minded community that is always buzzing to bet on anything. We got Pick'em channels in there, everything you want. Hey, look it. Most are still up on Rivers. If you have money on Rivers, you can get down on that Rivers. This is where you hit the bookie, you know. Bankrupt the bookie, baby.

Go get it on BetRivers. I like that quite a bit. So again, 444.com slash plans, promo code prop drop, gets you an extra 25% off of an already discounted betting subscription. So appreciate you very much. Hit the thumbs up, like, subscribe on the way out. For Connor and Slop and Ryan, we'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody.

Yeah!