Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 6 PROPS | Top Prop Bets, Predictions & Picks

Episode Date: October 15, 2022

Experts Ryan Noonan, Connor Allen & Pat Mayo share their top Week 6 NFL player prop bets. Tail them as they hand out their top picks, highlight the best betting odds & share their expert predictions.Timestamps:0:00 Intro4:10 Connor Bet #1 6:13 Pat Bet #1  7:15 Ryan Bet #1 10:02 Connor Bet #2 11:38 Pat Bet #2 14:22 Ryan Bet #2 16:55 Connor Bet #3 18:27 Pat Bet #320:20 Ryan Bet #323:45 Connor Bet #431:35 Pat Bet #4 37:18 Ryan Bet #4 41:14 Tackle Props55:29 Thrive Props57:56 PROP TOOL BET OF THE WEEK1:02:55 Outro Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansMove the Line: Prop Drop is sponsored by Thrive Fantasy. Use Promo Code PROPDROP when signing up & you will receive a 100% instant first deposit match up to $250 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3RQQHRuFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Betting on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4BetsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Pat on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ThePMEVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Prop Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TWC40v4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3pQ2tQ14for4 Player Prop Finder 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wxTcQc4for4 Player Prop Odds Comparison Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3AQ5TbK

Hello and welcome to the Move Alive Prop Drop Show presented by Thrive Fantasy. I'm Ryan Noonan, back to talk about the best way most profitable way to bet on nfl football and that is player props joining me here as always my friend connor allen how we doing doing well i did not get to catch an episode of the challenge this week but i i will make a point of it next week i totally escaped my mind until we were about to queue up the show and then i realized that i let you guys down so it'll be on my to-do list for next week one episode in so you're not too far off. Uh,

it was a good episode. I'm excited for episode two, obviously joining me in the spot as well as the man behind the Mayo media network, the Pat Mayo experience. It's the man himself, Pat Mayo. How are we doing?

Did you end up playing in my challenge fantasy league? I did not. I failed. It's a big mess. No, I enjoyed your show though. So thank you. Yeah. Glad we could, you know, encourage you to do that here in though so thank you yeah glad we could you know encourage you to do that here in the space last week and then you know tune in everyone should be subscribing

to the mayo media network pat mayo experience in the podcast forum uh not just great football content but lots of other good stuff like the challenge to expose people like connor to uh things outside of his little sphere out there so So hopefully we can get Connor on board eventually. So I want to remind you, we're going to be live here every week, 2 p.m. Eastern on Fridays with our favorite player props, taking your questions. So if you are hanging out with us on YouTube, subscribe, so you know it's a show.

Smash the like button. It goes a long way and helps us out a ton. Lots of other great content here on the four for four YouTube page. So we want to make sure that you get notifications for that. If you're hanging out, let us know your thoughts this week on week six props. Feel free to ask us any questions, any things that you're considering.

Perhaps you have another TV show recommendation for Connor that he's been deprived on over the years. Happy to help kind of broaden his horizons here as well. Also again, two episodes of Move the Line each week, both available YouTube and podcast form. In addition to the Prop Drop, our game preview show with Connor, John Dangle, and myself is live at 6.45 p.m. Eastern on Thursday nights, leading you into the Thursday night football game.

So, again, another good reason to subscribe so you don't miss the show. Before we jump into our week six plays, coming off of a really nice week five here. So I want to tell you about our friends over at Thrive Fantasy. We partner with them so you can get a easy, free, no strings attached betting subscription to 444 and a free 444 t-shirt, right? Good t-shirts, nice and soft for just 20 bucks. On top of that, if you deposit $20 on Thrive Fantasy, create a new account using our promo code 444, you're also going to get a 100% instant first deposit match up to 250 bucks. That promo, the subscription is going to carry you through the end of the year, December 31st, 2022. The t-shirt deal is only good for the next week or

so. It extends to October 24th. So you want to get the free t-shirt? Get in now. You got to deposit just 20 bucks at Thrive. But again, deposit match 250. That's the best in the market. Anything that's out there from like a, you know, pick them standpoints, the 250 match is great. Again, four for four betting sub is like 240 bucks by itself. You're going to be able to get that for just $20. This is good for both new and previous 444 subs. It will extend your subscription. So you just let us know, hit us up anywhere you can reach out to us. You can head out support at 444.com if you want as well. So again, thrivefantasy.com, promo code 444. You get a free betting sub along

with your first deposit match and a free t-shirt so pretty exciting stuff uh connor we'll let you get started good week for you last week what's your first play for week six yeah we'll kick this off with a bad qb under you know going back to the well here pj walker under 210 and a half passing yards it looked like this moved a little bit but but still on MGM right now. I think this number is about 10 to 15 yards off. I think it's unlikely the Panthers come out here slinging it with PJ Walker in his first week and without Matt Rule. I mean, it just seems like there's a lot of turnover

going on right now. It feels really easy for them just to be able to go out there, kind of run the ball with Christian McCaffrey. PJ Walker said, you know, he's going to try to get the ball to his best players. But I mean, it seems like this team has kind of been lost and without a vision for a while now. And so now PJ Walker in the fold, I just can't imagine them coming out and passing it. I think there's

a lot of ways that this goes under, whether it's, you know, poor efficiency, lack of volume, you know, kind of mix of both. And so, I mean, he has two career starts. I haven't seen anything that makes me think that he's, you know, significantly better than Baker Mayfield. And I think that he was, I mean, Baker is awful. So, you know, I think that they're in kind of that same, same range here. And I lean towards the under our projections lean under, I know a bunch of other median projections also have kind of that one nineties range. So I'd play this down to like 205. I know Pat, you weren't wanting to get involved in anything Panthers related last week. Is there any Ewing theory involved here with the coach being moved on from defensive

coordinator you get the quarterback out uh what are your thoughts on pj walker and the panthers i have no real thoughts about pj walker and the panthers hopefully he's like hey dj moore is pretty good let's throw to him well what's dj moore's over under i didn't even i mean i've been thinking about this narrative all week that's the one thing I didn't really actually look into was, let's see, receiving yards for DJ Moore. Is it like hilariously low? 52 and a half. That's acceptable, 52 and a half.

I was hoping it would be like 34 or something like that. We're trending that way. Again, he's talking about I'm going to get out there and get the ball to my playmakers. Sounds great. In theory, I'm sure Baker Mayfield intended and get the ball to my playmakers. Sounds great. In theory, I'm sure Baker Mayfield intended to get the ball to his playmakers as well. So Connor's got a pretty solid fade here looking at his picks on his Carolina passing game. So yeah, the lights are on, but no one's home with the DJ Moore thing too.

It's been pretty frustrating. Pat, how about your first play? My first play is going to be very similar to my first play last week because they have not adjusted the line as of yet. So once again, I shall go to the well with Cooper Rush under four and a half rushing yards. He doesn't run. He had one run last week because it was a completely broken play.

He got two yards. That was the only time he sniffed trying to run in that game. And then he took three kneel downs at the end. He actually ended up with minus one rushing yards when it was all said and done, but four and a half, just too high. If you bet this all, I mean, we're not going to get Cooper Rush all 17 weeks,

but if you bet this all 17 weeks, it would probably go 14 and three. It was our last chance probably to bet the Cooper Rush under, but good luck. And you get the kneel downs. You're probably not getting the victorious knee downs here,

though I think Connor and I both think that line's a little fishy, a too high uh on the eagle side but yeah it's a good look he's just not running anyway so you don't even need the kneel downs to uh to bolster the play i keep going back to the ball we're staying with quarterback unders here i'm going to start with a qb under two is not typically uh a pool i dip my toes into but marcus mariota under 17 and a half completions. This is available on PointsBet at minus 115. I think the under 27 and a half attempts is a great look as well, but he's been so inefficient. He ranks 30th out of 35 quarterbacks in completion percentage over

expectation this season. So I'm going to go under on the efficiency metric here first. He is not top 17 completions or 26 attempts in any of his last four games. Now San Francisco comes to town. Again, they're depleted, but they are the top ranked pass defense in the league. And there's no way Arthur Smith at this point, who would love to just establish it all day,

is going to suddenly turn Mariota loose from like a passing volume standpoint too. And with, I think, Cordero Patterson out, some of those like easy dump offs, both from like a volume standpoint too. And with, I think, Cordero Patterson out, some of those easy dump-offs, both from a volume and efficiency standpoint, would probably hurt too. They're just not leaning on any of these other guys in the passing game like they would with CPAT.

So the Niners have a ton of injuries, but they have just as many along the defensive line as they do in the secondary. Kinlaw's out, Armstead's out. So I think they continue to run the football here. It's a pacedown spot for both teams. I think we're going to see pretty muted play volume. The Niners are 30th in pass rate over expectation on the season.

The Falcons are 31st. So both teams are probably going to hand the ball off a ton. And we typically lean way over. And Connor can attest to this too. Projections are pretty high on quarterbacks we're under on both these numbers and that's just another like kind of feather in the cap on this one so I like under completions I like under an attempt Pat what are your thoughts here I am slightly under on both I am projected for the fewest attempts of any starting quarterback this

week so I only have a 26 passing attempts but I do have them at 16 completions i mean sneeze a little bit or get an extra first down all of a sudden you're over on both those so it's pretty much it's it's in the margins for me it wouldn't be a play for me connor what are your thoughts here uh yeah i something that stuck with me last week was when they were down like 14 points and they're still just trying to establish the hell out of the ball you know like running the ball continuously like they they did game script just doesn't really matter for them uh they're still just trying to establish the hell out of the ball, you know, like running the ball continuously. Like they, they did game script. It doesn't really matter for them.

They're still just going to keep running it. So yeah, I think it is a little bit, you know, narrow, but I also like it. I think it's, it's worth a play just because of kind of what we've seen.

Like they, they don't really seem that intent on winning games. They just want to like run the ball, you know, try their best, make the score as close as possible. You know, like it's one of those types of things.

It's like a college mentality. It's like, Oh, we only lost by seven, not uh you know like that it's one of those types of things it's like a college mentality it's like oh we only lost by seven not you know like 21 so even last week they did turn up the pass rate over expectation a little bit and he got to 25 attempts so like even when they got down by 14 early they still didn't really push it so um like both of them but again i lean on the efficiency play back to you connor for pick number two pick number two we are going to go with kirk cousins over 22 and a half completions uh he's more than 22 completions in every game so far this season now faces uh against a injury depleted dolphins defense and i think the biggest worry here would be like kirk stats against the blitz which have been pretty bad so far this year uh and mi Blitz is a ton, but I think most of that's actually pressure based, which the Dolphins rank dead last in right now.

So, you know, they're not getting pressure. They're blitzing a lot. They're not getting pressure, which leads me to believe that there's gonna be a lot of quick passes. You know, a lot of like short completions there, get the ball out quick. And Dolphins so far also 30th and past events, EPA dead last and past DVOA. So I think that it kind of spells towards that kind of more quick passes here and a lot of easy completions for Kirk.

And if they don't plan on doing that, then this bet is going to be way, way off. But, you know, I think as long as they have any kind of common sense in game planning, seeing what the Dolphins have done for, I guess, two years now, they should know what they should be doing here. That was what kept me off of this play was the like really, really bad. And like, just it's been sinking year over year with his against the blitz rate and

stuff, but like you make a good point. I mean, Miami has not been getting home, even though they are blitzing at a pretty high rate. Pat, what are your thoughts on that? I like it.

There is another one from that game that I think that I have more interest in, but it's hard to really go wrong if he hasn't gone under the number all year. And we see it with the Vikings every single week. Like even if they jump out to a big league, they'll find themselves back in this game somehow, and then he'll have to pass them more and it'll be something ridiculous along those lines.

So I like the Kirk Cousins stuff. I'm going to stick in that game and just go to the other side of the ball. I really don't know a ton about Skylar Thompson and whether they're going to just let him cook and throw 50 times. But regardless of what the score got to in the Cincinnati game and regardless of what the score got to

in the Jets game last week, we even saw this a little bit in the Baltimore game when they were down big, is that Raheem Mostert keeps getting the ball. Now time i've taken it over on raheem mostert uh two times in the past three years he's gotten a season-ending injury in both those games and failed to go over that number but right now uh 14 and a half rushing attempts is what he's at he's cleared those numbers each of the past two games i think this game is going to be close and i think if they want to keep it close they're just going to feed him the ball over and over and minnesota can't

stop anyone on the ground so as long as chase edmonds continues to see this you know bench roll and we get a ton of raheem master i know he was supposed to be like quote unquote banged up he's gonna play he's already said he's gonna play so i like the over on him here 14 and a half rushing attempts he's already dealing with the needs injury Pat like we're already off to a rough start for for Mostert and his family in this one you gave him the uh the kiss of death here you get a little little custody rubbing off on you on uh Mostert here maybe so but I keep using him in spots I just haven't made it one of the picks on the show so maybe this is what pushes it over the edge but otherwise he's been very good to me this year yeah he was on my list early in the week when he popped up on the injury report it gave me

a little bit of a scare but like connor your boy chase edmonds has been not involved like he is now losing like secondary carries to miles gaskin so like i get where i pass here and i do think they want to probably lean on the run and protect skylar thompson in the in the preseason when he responded to one of my tweets i I was so excited. And now I think I might just delete the tweet because it was so bad. And, uh, you know, it's like almost embarrassing that he interacted with my tweet, uh, because it's, I mean, he's been so, so bad. Like he's been like literally one of the worst running backs in the NFL, uh, which is embarrassing, but okay. So what about like 60 rushing yards here? Cause I guess my only concern is like,

maybe the dolphins fall behind, but I mean, Vikings are only three-point road favorites. So I mean, 60 rushing yards against a bad Minnesota run defense is also not bad either. Like he's getting 15 attempts. I don't know. I think he should probably just get there in both places, I guess. But 14 and a half looks like even money in most spots now. So that's a pretty good look. It just, game flow has not affected the amount they want to run on first down with

raheem mostert so far this year they've been down 21 and be like yeah let's give them the ball go nuts free yards yeah especially with this quarterback too that they probably want to hide uh don't hate that at all maybe he's great who knows he might be great he might be terrific they probably didn't think they were going to get many Skyler Thompson snaps this year. My next one is Mark Andrews, over 69.5 receiving yards. This is available on DraftKings at minus 115. Gave it out of play for subscribers at 4-4-4 at 66.5, but I still think 69.8 is his season average, so I still think this is very much a play, and it's a great matchup.

Giants are terrible at defending tight ends this season. They rank 25th in Football Outsiders DVOA metric against the position. Andrew's going to see a ton of one-on-one man coverage here. There's a nice little familiarity here with former Ravens, now Giants defensive coordinator, Wink Martindale. They run a ton of man, a ton of blitz-heavy stuff. They're going to run a lot of cover zero looks, which is basically just single man across the field and bringing everyone else.

Andrews is elite against man coverage. He has 2.8 yards per outrun, second most targets in the league against man coverage as well, like one behind Justin Jefferson, who probably sees a ton of targets in that matchup as we talked about earlier. Rashad Bateman didn't practice again on Friday. He is not going to play in this game. So like Andrews is like the first and second look.

And then he probably tucks in and runs, which is probably a good play as well. So yeah, I love Andrews in the spot over 69 and a half receiving yards. Pat, what do you think about that one? I like it. The studs have been coming through for us. I mean, that's where I had been leaning a bunch,

be it Cup or be it Jefferson. And honestly, I mean, a banged up Kelsey is probably like the highest end, but Andrews is 1B in this conversation if he's not 1A at this point. So if you would just put WR next to his name instead of TE, then all of a sudden this receiving total is like 82 and a half.

So I like the over. Love it. Connor, any thoughts? Yeah, I'm on board. I mean, it seems high, but it's really not when you consider just all the factors you mentioned there. So yeah, I'm on board. Yeah. And he's got like, I think of all the guys with like a target share

north of 25% of the season. He's like second in average depth of target. Like he's not a traditional tight end as far as like, you know, his, his depth of target stuff. He's not catching little five yarders that we need to turn into big plays. Like they use him vertically down the field and he's going to have a lot of man coverage and yeah, dude's just kind of an alpha in the mismatch. So again, you're hanging out, jump in the chat,

let us know anything that you're considering for this week. shows for connor uh tell them what you thought about the first episode of the challenge um you know the big reveal at the end what's tori going to say when jordan comes out how have they not talked how did anisa not tell tori that they were coming on lots of questions uh connor pick number three might as well be another language to me right now uh my third one shy smith under 22 and a half receiving yards uh this one i don't know for some reason keeps coming like on and off the board but uh i mean it'll be it's not going to move that much uh he's one in five of this number panthers rolling out pj walker smith is like fourth fifth receiving option for the panthers against the rams who are third and explosive pass right allowed i know that their

you know metrics overall are not great in terms of pass defense, but he's probably only getting a couple of looks here. And as long as you're able to contain him, kind of not let a big one loose here, he should go under this number. So I thought that this was a little bit inflated here and our projections have them like a little bit under this number. So I thought it was a good look at something that potentially could go like way, way under. I mean, this could be like a one for eight kind of game for a guy like Shai Smith. Yeah, we talked about this one too.

And we even saw more Terrence Marshall last week too. And I don't know if that was just because that game got out of whack, but yeah, this is pretty thin. This is definitely a Connor type of play. Pat, any Shai Smith takes? My number's like him over. So do with that what you will, but I just appear to stay away from me.

Shy Smith. Come on. If you feel like he's not going to be involved in the hammer, the under for sure. This is a, this is a Connor play though, right? This is like a,

you know, thin, I need to get back on brand. I mean, I've been just doing, you know, too much other shit. And now I got to just,

you know, focus on, focus on what, what has hit for me in the past two years and go from there. Pat, how about you? Back to you, number three. This is an odd one. I thought this number was just weirdly low. It's one of the biggest discrepancies I have,

and it's Rashad White over 1.5 receptions. I have him projected at almost three in this game, and that's around what he's been getting in this Bucs offense. And I just think that in a game where they're eight-and-a-half-point favorites, if you do expect a blowout, then I think you're just going to see a whole lot more white than you normally see. And we've been seeing more of him over the past two weeks when Fournette needing a little bit of a break.

This seems like a perfect opportunity to throw him in, be it over receptions. I don't know about rushing yards i believe that's at 14 and a half i mean i would lean over but i don't if the game doesn't get out of control he's not going to end up near that number but inside the passing game that's where he's been doing all of his damage so i like the over one and a half yeah we haven't met two but i also agree like when you look at lenny got involved last week with like 11 targets or something wild like that connor um 16 and a half is what we have for the rushing yards but you know he's trending up uh from a usage standpoint so uh don't mind those looks at all what do you think

yeah it's it's funny because like early in the season it was like all Lenny and then like after the first two I guess three weeks they were he's like yeah I can't do this like this is not gonna happen anymore I need to you know take a break and so now then they started working with Rashad White, they've actually followed up on that. You hear that sometimes with guys like Austin Eckler talked about it, and he still plays a lot. But yeah, like Leonard Fournette here, I think, is legit getting subbed out for Rashad White. So yeah, I like the overs here. I mean, you can see his role continue to expand as long as he maintains the trust of Tom Brady and doesn't mess up any pass pro or anything really bad or fumble.

Chad's quiet. Pat, can you tweet this out? Get people in this chat to harass Connor for not watching the challenge and let us know their thoughts on props. And I will give you my third. We have Kyle Murray. Kyler is going to go over 36 and a half

passing attempts in this one. It's available on Bet MGM and minus one 20, 42, 32, 58 and 49 are what he's done in the past four games. So 36 and a half is probably pretty comfortable in a neutral setting. It doesn't feel like a neutral setting though, because surprisingly the Seahawks are a voluminous offense.

They are running a ton of plays they are running fast they are doing no huddle at like the third or fourth highest rate in the league Cardinals are second league in plays per game third in dropbacks and Seattle's defense is terrible 31st in DVOA against the pass and I think Seattle has success on the other side too so it forces you forces the Cardinals to stay really aggressive throughout. And again, you kind of look at how this Cardinals offense is going to be formed here too. They don't have a traditional running back in this game. James Connor is going to be out. Darrell Williams is out. You're going to have Eno Benjamin,

who has more profiles as a pass catching back. So again, now you have Rondell back in, like they have more of a healthy passing game than they do against, you know, on the ground here. So I think you're going to see Kyler drop back 40 times and chuck it. This should be much higher in my opinion. So Connor, what do you think about Kyler in this one? I lean there. I didn't end up playing it.

And I think that was mostly just because I was a little bit worried because if, if the Seahawks are up, you know, they're going to just run the ball a lot. And I mean, I don't know. I think it's probably the right play, but I think it's probably pretty close to our number. So for me,

it was like a little bit of a stay away. I'm just not sure that I know that like that there will be elevated scoring and that the Seahawks generally elevate scoring, but I'm not necessarily necessarily sure that that translates to play volume. And that's still my only concern there is that like, will he get to like 40 plus attempts? Pat do you have kyler here uh kyler i mean kyler's my favorite stack up dfs quarterback this week so i am completely on board with this the

only thing that always worries me is that for whatever reason like for the first 20 minutes of the game that this offense is just going to look putrid and they're not going to know what they're doing and then all of a sudden we'll get into this kyle or not even calling plays anymore he's just running around like a crazy person and that's when their offense is at their best but looking at it what do i have them for 25 completions on 36 attempts for 243 so yeah i guess that tracks yeah right there i agree i mean i can't even i don't understand how cliff's scripted 15 are so bad every week like they i don't know it's just it's so consistent they're by far the worst first quarter team in the league um see how's the soft landing spot for them to maybe get something

going there but yeah i just i do think that that we're gonna see that in the second half so you're gonna go into the half feeling like you're a little bit behind on this but because of the makeup of the team and this game environment i think we see some volume there so all right connor bring us home last one yeah so we just well we just got some breaking news here that cam makers will not play uh this weekend as of a minute ago they said he will not practice today going through some stuff so if you know for anyone watching the show if you have any rams props out there on maybe some, you know, offshores or locals or something, I don't see any on domestics, but, uh, you know, hit some Henderson overs or Malcolm Brown overs. If you got any rogue ones hanging out there. Um, my last one here though, is Elijah Moore. I took the under on three and a half

receptions. Uh, I know it's getting a little bit juicy here, but I still think it's a good look more as four targets in each of the past two games with Zach Wilson back, uh, you know, just three and one receptions on those on a 14 and a half percent target share going back to last season. Morris fewer than four receptions in six of his nine games with Wilson in his car, just 23 or 50 total targets. Uh, they just don't seem to be on the same page at all. Also, this is like a paced down spot.

I think that we're going to see a lot of like a lot less volume than normal. Jets shifted to a run first approach since Wilson came over. 14th to pass it over expectation with Flacco. 24th to pass it over expectation with Wilson. And now operating like a bottom 10 pace.

I know some of that was game script dependent, but pass rate over expectation usually accounts for that. Packers also playing at the slowest situation, neutral pace in the league. And they pass a ton last

week, but I think that they probably go back to the run heavy approach after they somehow lost in London to the Giants. So I think this is going to be like lower volume in general, plus his targets have been inefficient. So I think it would take like a ton of quick scores with Packers and then just like, you know, 40, 50 attempts for, for Wilson to kind of hit the over here otherwise we're getting like a normal game flow i think that he goes up goes under the majority of the time yeah i like it i have some bonus props in this game that i would love to get pat's thoughts on too that i've considered because i actually do think i lean under on zach wilson's attempts for some of the reasons that connor outlined there um because i do think we are going to see them just script a little bit more run heavy you

know they are actually not you know packers are pretty bad against the run so far and we've seen that you know flacco stuff split uh also tyler conklin uh he had a bad like drop that turned into a pick six in that steelers game and then last week he ran seven routes. He played like almost equal snaps to CJ Ozoma, but he got targeted once and ran seven routes, zero passing yards or receiving yards. He's hung out there at 20 and a half, pretty thin. I think a lot of medium projections are going to tell you that that's probably a pretty decent number, but like there's a legit chance that he,

now that Ozoma got healthy, like he might just be kind of benched or, you know, be more of like the blocking guy. So I don't want to go super heavy on jets unders here. They're super correlated. And all of a sudden you lose all of them, but we'll love to get your jets thoughts on Connors play.

And then some of the other stuff there. I would just want to hit over on burritos on everything, but they're not offering me any like decent burritos numbers. So he's the guy who really benefits from Zach Wilson playing quarterback. They just, over on Berrios on everything, but they're not offering me any decent Berrios numbers. Cowards. He's the guy who really benefits from Zach Wilson playing quarterback. Whenever Zach Wilson's in, they're like, Berrios, we need to get him five weird touches a game.

Some of them aren't catches. Some of them are going to be jet sweeps and stuff like that, but he's always a good anytime touchdown play, weirdly enough. I don't have any real thoughts about what's going to happen with the packers like i would have been 4-0 last week but i went with aaron rogers under passing attempts like this is a lock no because all they wanted to do was pass for no yards apparently i don't know what the hell was going on in that game but i'm with connor what i do see is listen you can run all over the packers too the They're the worst run defense in football. So you'll probably see a lot of Brees Hall,

probably see a lot of Michael Carter more than you're used to seeing in this game. So unders of the receiving game, be it Conklin, be it Moore, be it hell. I mean, it's not like Gary Wilson's been lighting it up since Zach Wilson came back either, and they're still hanging pretty high numbers. The only one I would really want to go over on is Corey Davis. Yeah, he seems to is Corey Davis. Yeah. He seems to love Corey Davis did last year too.

Jay Vaughn talking about Brees Hall over 14 and a half for a longest rush. I haven't looked at like some of his, his stats on how often that's happening or, but I don't hate it. I mean, the matchup is great. Four or five so far this season is only his shortest game in one game was 14 um so i mean that's pretty that's that's a pretty good look i think do we know is it because mac jones might

play is that why we're not getting any patriots props i know i love some remandre we need to bang some reminders even so i mean what are they excited at like how high like what do we think it opens that i mean that was the first thing that i went to go look at like my projections have him at 97 yards rushing i'm gonna guess it's gonna be like 68 oh man yeah combined combined yards too like i just i don't see a lot from jj taylor i don't see a lot from pierre strong like i think he's you know the pass catching back too so like romandre total yards anywhere like if it's under 100 i think is probably a great look but yeah i mean if it's if the rushing is in the 60s well let's see kenneth walker they've listed 61 and a half you know benjamin they have 52 and a half so actually you know what i mean they were listing

derrick henry at 72 and a half like two weeks. Well, let me, let me amend that and say 75 and a half rushing yards is probably what we're looking at. I think it's a, I think it's a play. I think that's, that was my guess too. I mean, even then like Nick Chubb has gone over a hundred yards at four or five games. They still send me like 89. You know what I mean? Like, which I, I was hoping to get like an under like 105 or like a hundred, but I mean, I'm dreaming at this point with how they've been setting lines, catching a running back rushing yard total at 100 where do you have romantri pat

uh i have him i believe at 97 let's see no 95 rushing yards 17 attempts 95 rushing yards half a touchdown and 25 through the air yeah we have 25 through the air as well 19 attempts at uh 88 and a half yards so you have even more efficiency and I don't hate that at all. So yeah. I mean, the Browns have between, I mean, there are bottom three pass and rush defense.

Like they're bad. They're bad. I don't want to take any linebacker tackles because they're terribly tackled, terrible tacking tackling team as well. So how did those do last week? I forgot to, I forgot my sheet where I wrote them down.

Pretty well. We're going to get back on it today too we got i got a couple for you so yeah a couple that we need to look for they're actually slow to post this week so last week we had um michael walker we gave out on the show here he almost hit it at halftime so let's see yeah you had you had tranquil walker and cole holcomb i noticed the holcomb one i think he had like 14 tackles yeah he got 15 Yeah, they did not post Tranquil, unfortunately. Walker ended up leaving the game, but he got there before

he got hurt. So we're going to take advantage of Walker being out of the lineup this week too with some other guys. It'll probably be posted a little bit lower. Yeah, alright. Yeah, Ramondre is like, I think the Ramondre stuff is it's going to go so fast because I feel like everyone's waiting for it. You just got to stay plugged online and just not miss it.

I mean, Javon here from the chat said, I've been setting alarms. Honestly, I don't blame you. He opened it actually at DraftKings. I know this is Pat's favorite market. 20-1 to lead the league in rushing this week. And now it's down to like 10-1. I mean, it's probably not a play there because I mean,

but it's close. Like he should go nuclear against his team. I mean, we have him behind only Chubb, slightly ahead of Saquon. We have him slightly ahead of Jonathan Taylor, slightly out of Dalvin Cook. Oh, really? Well, what do you have Jonathan Taylor projected for?

17 carries, 83 yards. I have him for 19 carries and 113 yards. Ooh. There's probably some, I don't know who else we have tied in there, but yeah, 17 for 83. I mean, do we think they're going to work in like Deion Jackson and Phillip Lindsay? Probably not.

Probably not. If Taylor's healthy enough to play, they're giving him the ball. That's their only out. So that's what I would say. I think there's a sweep that gets done on Saturday mornings. We're still projecting Deion Jackson for eight carries. So that's probably impacting the Jonathan Taylor line. Because I agree.

Deion Jackson's not getting eight carries if Jonathan Taylor's active And healthy, which he probably will be practiced Again today, on Friday Alright, Pat, number Four for you I have a couple, I'll throw this up to you I tried this last week and we got it wrong So we need to redeem ourselves On this one, when I gave like

The four of them at the end I just want to check on this for one second Because this number just kind of stood out to me Something I had remembered that I randomly saw on Twitter like the four of them at the end, I just want to check on this for one second, because this number just kind of stood out to me, something I had remembered that I randomly saw on Twitter throughout the course of, Oh no, he did it the first two weeks. It is.

Michael Pittman doesn't have a target deeper than 17 yards downfield all season long. I was like, yeah, but his over under is 22 and a half. So I thought that was somewhat interesting. Didn't play the last game against the Jags either, if people are wondering.

So I'm going to cross that one off. But one, two that I'm looking at was one that I played last week that we were talking about. We all kind of really liked it. I bit the bullet on it and went for it. I went with Kenny Pickett under 17 and a half rushing yards. His one attempt for 10 yards on a completely broken play

where he looked very uncomfortable when he was running the ball. That's still set at 15 and a half. No, thank you. Under, under 15 and a half. Or you just do the same game parlay. Kenny Pickett under 15 and a half rushing yards. Kenny Pickett over 37 and a half passing attempts.

Like that seems to correlate pretty well with me. He's not just running for the sake of running. If you expect them to get blown out, this is a perfect spot. You throw Rashad White into that one as well having a three banger or something crazy like that that or christian kirk 54 and a half receiving here he has a bad game and now he sucks all of a sudden let's go back to the over on that one against the colts connor you on that i think last week too right you were on kirk over yeah no i mean doug peterson was talking about like how they want to get him like 10 plus targets again they're like this guy should not be getting

three four targets he should be in 10 plus yeah i i've been looking at that i was just seeing like minus 125s which i don't like to bet overs on yardage at minus 125 but if you can get like a 55 at you know minus 110 or minus 115 i i'm definitely into that so that will be my play kirk over 54 and a half receiving. Yeah. I like that too. I don't mind the same game parlay. I think she,

Mike Evans is another guy on my list that I'm considering too. You've been really able to attack the Steelers with boundary receivers. And you'd have a little bit of concerns about, you know, Chris Godwin being a hundred percent healthy. You know, you're not gonna get a lot of volume from Mike Evans typically. You can do it on four catches, maybe five catches.

But I think mid-60s, I think he's a nice look too. So not a bad addition to a same-game parlay there if you're looking to kind of tackle some of the picket stuff and Rashad White stuff that Pat's given out there. See if we can crank one of these out. I wonder what all this ends up paying uh i had a nice one last week we loved uh actually i went into that tennessee washington game our boy john daigle loved that game from dfs perspective played around with some alts there and hit like a 50 to one same game parlay uh with the draft kings boost so i'm

probably gonna go to the washington or to the arizona seattle game i think this we can do something pretty similar because i think pretty narrow workload in that game and there's i think we expect a lot of fireworks so lots of ways to play around with some alts and get a pretty juicy one so it was actually something that i was considering doing for my fourth bad be like dk metcalf ladders you know what i mean just like all the way up because it's great matchup I mean they should should be throwing a bunch so uh yeah no I'm into it I think that that's that's a good game to like play around some same game parlays same with uh I mean Chiefs Bill is very obvious but I mean the total is only at

54 I know the the props almost seem more adjusted over the total than like the total being adjusted I don't know like all their props are super high outside of gabe davis which i know you took early in the week at 51 yeah it's another one too yeah there's just so many ways to to chase the gabe davis stuff is it's too low i do have a quick a quick bet here for anyone looking to get some like serious uh you know degenerate action daryl henderson to lead the week in rushing 65 to 1 right now on dk cam makers out uh apparently might get cut i mean mcveigh apparently i'm just like reading through some of these quotes that are popping up here said the team is working through the situation declined to

say whether he believes acres will be a part of the team in the future um working through some things so probably just some personal things i mean i doubt he gets cut but he's been really bad so but the whole line has been really bad too. Like none of them have been that good. So. You wouldn't cut that dude for being bad though. You would just cut him mid season. No.

You just wouldn't bench him. Something else had to come up. Yeah. Right. Like something else had to come up. I don't know. There's definitely some weird stuff going on behind the scenes. I know week one, we kind of got word that he was like barely going to play kind of like

right before, you know, right before before kickoff, which was awesome. We were able to get down with some unders there. But now, I mean, he was the only one who got carries last week. Daryl Henderson didn't even touch the ball. So I don't know. But still worth this, whatever, lunch money on 65-1. Could certainly do worse. You got a same-game parlay built there, Pat?

What are you looking at? Yeah, DraftKings is not offering what I want. They don't have Kenny Pick pickett under rushing anything it's only like the ladder of more than i know well well no thank you on that one like you know 17 or more receiving yards for white and 40 plus pass attempts for kenny pickett four and a half to one nice you're not even getting like super dgen with all the extra legs it just kind of came out just two of them yeah that's nice i like that um i'll probably get wild again the one that hit last week was an eight-legger uh you know they had a free bet and then they wanted to boost it

so yeah take advantage of those things they're out there um friends over at draftkings are very kind with some of those things um all right. Last one for me, and then maybe we'll go into the tackle streets here and make some notes on some guys to watch for. Last one I'm going to do is a under, I'm going to take Najee Harris under 61 and a half combined yards. This isn't thin from like a total yardage standpoint, but at this point,

like Najee is just a thin play we are basically any pro nausea thesis has like been kind of started with volume right he's never really shown even in college much of an ability to break big plays and now the volume is drying up um our own john dagel was talking about it last night. Najee has out-touched Jalen Warren 82 to 26 on the season, but they're tied in plays that have gone for 10 yards or more with seven apiece. Like Najee just does not have the juice at all. He was third in running backs route participation last year behind, like, I think it was not our Swift and Kamara.

He's now 30th on the season it's down almost 25 and it's only dropping he's played six quarters with kenny pickett he's seen four targets so we're dealing with way less volume in the passing game your pickets kind of got like a i'm pushing it down the field kind of mentality and that's not really working for nage and he's been pretty bad and connor posted a video of a David Johnson-esque attempt to turn the corner for Najee last week. And it was just an ugly, ugly play. So we're dealing with probably like 12 to 13 inefficient carries,

maybe two catches. The Bucs defense, first in DVOA against pass-catching running backs on the season, they've been terrific. So just a bad matchup too. And, you know, coach speak there too. they want to get jaylen more and more involved and something might be wrong with nage he's not in the injury report but i just don't think we're going to see a ton of efficient touches here so even though 61 and a half feels like a low threshold i just i don't see it forming this matchup so i know connor you're on this with me pat what are your thoughts i think it's just just stemming from that Liz Frank issue

that they were trying to conceal during the preseason. Like they're not putting him on the injury report, but just watching him play, it's very clear there's a problem and that would explain it all. So I'm just going to tie two and two together with that. Yeah, not going out on a limb. So yeah, maybe there's injury risk too, right? So this is another reason why we can sometimes die on the overs.

You get these spots where the dude's hurt injury risk too right so this is another reason why we can sometimes die on the overs you get these spots where the dudes hurt and all of a sudden this is a blowout situation and he doesn't play like he did last week in the fourth where it's basically all jaylen warren so connor want to add anything this one no you summed it up well i would say that naji i we went back and forth on this actually you originally liked it and I was like I don't know man it's so short because we played at some Najee unders earlier in the season and uh you know like he got there just based on like three or four dump offs but that was with Trubisky uh you know as you mentioned like it really has just not been seeing a ton of like passing work from Pickett

and I think that the quarterback change like it's just generally underrated in terms of like who quarterbacks like to target and something that's not you know talked about a ton here uh jaker's uh boss man here in the chat said that not just list frank thing but today he took a steel plate out of his shoe um i mean i don't know just like who was he like lex luger in the early 90s like he's trying to knock out the competition with his lead lead forearm he was running like he had a steel plate in his shoe but i mean it doesn't matter like i think You trying to knock out the competition with his lead forearm? He was running like he had a steel plate in his shoe. But, I mean, it doesn't matter.

I think he's still like – he wasn't running well enough to take that out. It just doesn't make sense. He might need to keep the steel plate in his shoe so he doesn't ruin his career. Toolist ranks is a bad place to be. Interesting, Jakers. I appreciate the insights. I i don't know it doesn't change my handicap here i just i think it's a bad matchup on top of everything too right so we have volume concerns which were basically the only thing going for nage and now it's a it's a bad matchup for him too so yeah good good info um tackles they've been slow to post tackles want to give you guys a few to look at here i'm

writing them down um shack leonard is going to be out for this game for uh the colts under he is yeah so well under but we wouldn't post it because he's not going to play how zaire franklin is going to now take on 100 of the snaps zaire frank Franklin actually leads the league in tackles and has the second highest tackle rate in the league at 11%. He will now not come off the field. He will not be posted nearly as high as Shaq Leonard would just based off of name recognitions. You'll probably see like a seven and a half. We'll smash over on Zaire Franklin at seven and a half. We're going to watch Michael Walker in Atlanta, who we played last week. He might sit for this one. So we want to look at either Rashad Evans will be his every down replacement

at linebacker. The Falcons run a lot of two linebacker stuff, so Evans probably does not come off the field. He'll probably also be at 7.5. But I also like Richie Grant. He is the safety safety plays basically box safety anytime you get a safety that's playing like 35 40 in the box those are really good tackle numbers for those guys and again they're playing san francisco who's going to run the ball

a ton richie grant probably posted at like maybe four and a half five and a half i think up to six is probably pretty good for richie Grant. So those are two. One more, Alex Singleton. He is a linebacker for Denver. Josie Jewell is their starting linebacker. He got hurt in that game against the Colts. He will be out. Singleton has the best tackle rate in the league.

And when he's played this year, early in the season when Josie Jewell was out, he put up some monster tackle numbers so against a Chargers team who will run on first down until the cows come home Alex Singleton should be in a nice spot too so six and a half seven and a half probably is where he's hung I think he's going to get to you know eight or nine so we like Alex Singleton so those are some of the the tackle ones to look at there sometimes they don't post the guys we want which sucks but I think those are probably pretty good looks if they get hung. I think we'll definitely get a Franklin look from the Colts.

Available upon request, Noonan. That's what I always say at the bottom. Request and see what they come up with. They probably give you a really terrible line. Because you asked for it, yeah. They know you probably want to chase overs. I gotta ask you, did you see Cuss' list of the best desserts you can have?

I did not. What do you think he listed as the best dessert in the world? Something from McDonald's? McDonald's hot fudge sundae? McDonald's apple pie was number four, but you're sniffing along the same lines. Feinberg pointed out that this sounds like something like you would be happy in prison with the way

that you've listed these desserts. What was it like? Maybe a strawberry shortcake or something like that? Or like I don't know, tiramisu? I don't know. Jell-O!

Jell-O? Are you serious? Did he specify color? He said lemon is the best Jell-O color. So yellow Jell-O. I've never even had lemon Jell-O. It's the best dessert. Well, you're not two years old, so what are you eating Jell-O for?

Jell-O costs like 50 cents like you know your local store to make like it's like nothing like wow that's a good take jello cuss is unbelievable man he is unbelievable i love the story about like i saw i think it was in a tweet that i had to watch the show too like where he didn't get like he got the wrong fries and then he went back in the store and got a coffee but then didn't complain about the fries but he didn't go to the bathroom there he like while was thinking about it went to like the grocery store bathroom because they're so much cleaner like he is it's an amazing thing that this is a friend of yours that is like a real person that has some just wild life takes so

uh if anyone's not consuming uh you know cuss corners and everything over on pat's youtube channel you are absolutely missing out because there's actually good thought out sports stuff in there too and then an absolute crazy person who drops by to chime in with like life takes it's insane and about how great the jets are a lot of pro Jets thoughts. And I'd love to see Feinberg still rocking the Staley shirt with pride, dying a slow death there, but good for Jeff. They should have went for it, by the way.

I know. I think he's got – I don't know. Do you think a coach like that, like when you see, too, what happens with – oh, we've seen it a few times. Do you think it's like, I don't know, pressure from the media? Like a public pressure? These guys can't be making those decisions based off of us. I don't know what he is up to,

but I appreciated that decision. But there's like, there's so much that can go into this at the same time. Like, you know, just because on paper, like on your blackjack card, it tells you, well, if we go for it, we have a 10% higher win probability in this game. That's great.

You call it terrible play. Well, then it's not so great. You know what I mean? Like so much of it is wrapped up in should they have gone for it? Shouldn't they have gone for it? I think that's kind of irrelevant to the discussion. Like, yeah, almost always you should go for it. The thing that you should be criticized for is just drawing up these terrible plays.

That's the thing thing too, right? If you think that it's mathematically the right play, right? Analytics. Then it shouldn't be, I don't know, it should be contextualized in the math, right? I don't understand why you see these guys not know or freeze

up or sometimes go and sometimes don't. I don't know. It's interesting. It's a personnel thing and it's no preparation going into it. Like on third down, they run Eckler. They get halfway there, right? So it's third and two, they get to fourth and one. It didn't seem like they had a plan that they knew they were going for it on fourth down. And then they were like, oh no, we're going to go for it.

Like if you know you're going to go for it in this situation and you know that you're running on third down, just have two plays set up and get up to the line right away. Yeah know that you're running on third down just have two plays set up and get up to the line right away yeah you make that decision on third down and that should impact third downs play call too yeah exactly because then at least you're keeping like the defense doesn't know what the hell you're doing so if you just go and line up to the ball they probably don't have the right personnel and you can create these mismatches but it's the waiting and like letting them allow allowing them time to change allowing them to time

to scheme you're now overthinking what you're going to be doing like i like mike williams and everything do we really want to go like hey we need a fourth and one to seal the game let's go like one-on-one slant route it's like i mean you're averaging eight yards of carry in this game and you just ran it for one uh maybe flick it outside to eckler again you'll get it yeah it's we've seen it with like Nathaniel Hackett often where you can see him thinking at the time, like, what are we going to do on fourth down? Like he didn't, that didn't impact the third down call. I think it's very easy to sit here. I'm in my basement, you know, like to make these decisions and feel like,

oh, I know what I would do, but it's just wild that these guys don't spend time or have someone that's in their ear to talk through them with this and be like okay here's what the math is or here's the right way to do it here's what we should be doing so yeah it's it's it sucks too because every time they don't get it or something bad happens like analytics just takes the hardest l because every you know boomer out there is just like uh don't go for it you know like and it's all the talk of everywhere and like i think some coaches do feel the pressure i really i mean Staley legit started out like super aggressive and then weeks it was like weeks two through three through four like did wasn't going for stuff it was being a little

bit more you know less aggressive and so now I went for it again and obviously that you know didn't work out so I just I think it could matter actually it's funny because when you think about how results based that most people are when you think about it it's like yeah they didn't get it but they still won the game anyway so like in a reverse situation like if you had punted and then like you would won the game because someone would come down and kick the field go be like well good thing they didn't go for it or they would have lost the game it's like well they didn't because and that's what you're saying but in the reverse situation regardless of the outcome you. And that's what you're saying. But in the reverse situation, regardless of the outcome,

you just hate the idea. Like, no one is saying, like, I think where people get it twisted, like idiots, obviously, is just like, I mean, when they hear analytics, they think it's some sort of, like, it's not even advanced stats. It's just stats. It's like, here's the percentage of you getting it versus here's the percentage of you not getting it. Here is how this affects the game if you get this first down's the percentage of you not getting it here is how

this affects the game if you get this first down versus if you don't get this first down or you punt the ball away and then you have to hold up and prevent a field goal like if you're up by a touchdown then yeah you know i i it makes sense to punt it away but if they only need a field you really don't think that you who has not i mean i just talked about how bad the browns defense was chargers defense not so hot in that game either you don't think that they're not going to give up the 30 yards in like 20 seconds on they'll play prevent d they'll put two safeties back and then there's dink and dunk over the middle for 30 yards and be where they were anyway in 15 seconds yeah we saw it too with the uh the raiders there and that game against the chiefs where

you know joshua daniels takes a look you know takes a little heat where they decide to go for two like they have the Chiefs there you're at you know a chance to put the game away you know I think we're just so ingrained with like well no I grew up watching football you never would think about kicking and not kicking the extra point there to tie the game you tie the game and give yourself a shot and it's like why give Patrick Mahomes the ball back in a tie game? Why not make him play from behind? You got down there. It's hard enough to get down to the two yard line.

You have a shot to ice the game. Or, you know, at least if you stop the Chiefs, then you win, right? So like, I don't know. Everyone's got their thoughts on it. It's definitely a boomer take to be to be anti-analytics anti-two points you know going for two when you were down 14 with you know under five minutes left is like just keep the take the points i don't know it's it's nuts and like i said the part that you want to criticize about all these guys should be criticized for their terrible play calls

like that's the part like never discussed you right? Like knowing when to go for it, when not to go for it. It's basically the easiest thing you can do. Super simple. You can just have, like you said, you have your sheet, update your model for wherever the game situation is,

the personnel that's on the field. Like, yeah, maybe you don't want to run it on fourth and one. Maybe you want to punt it. If you're missing all five of your alignment, there's context to some of these situations, but where they were currently at the end of play is to go for it just the wrong play

was called you need to execute hammer him because he's calling stupid plays that's the move yeah there's nothing more frustrating than watching like a fourth down like end around where they just get tackled in the backfield i'm like this is what you like you didn't think about this at all this is what you drew up like sure maybe you get 10 yards off that but you need one yard like what do you do with an end around to you know know, Dante Pettis or some rando? You know what I mean? Like, it makes no sense. The one thing the Lions do, like the Lions go for it a ton, but no one.

It's funny because Dan Campbell isn't known as a quote unquote analytics coach. So no one like notices that he goes for fourth down every single time. But he does, especially in those games where they feel like it's going to be higher pace like last week they did it and they got shut out against the patriots but they were doing the right thing like field goals were doing them no good in the second half and i want to catch up three points at a time they had to go for it every single time what they did against seattle was super impressive and something that i've always called for and i haven't seen anyone do it since the early 2000s rams when they would go for it on fourth down, they don't try to get a yard. They try to get like 40 on fourth down and it just leads to touchdowns. Yeah. Solak did a great job.

Ben Solak, he'll be joining us actually on the game preview show next week, pointing out how like it's tied to analytics. But like, when you listen to what Josh McDaniel said in the Raiders situation after the game, he was talking about just being aggressive. And it's like to analytics but like when you listen to what josh mcdaniel said in the raider situation after the game he's talking about just being aggressive and it's like that's kind of why i think when you kind of talk about the lions like i think he does have an aggressive mentality he doesn't have like a you wouldn't think of him as like an analytical coach but he is like a i'm gonna put our you know step on your necks type of mentality and yeah i mean i think end around um i think goal line where you literally bunch everyone up at the line to try to run up.

Oh my gosh. Can you just fucking spread the field a little bit and try something different or fades? Those are the top. Those are the three. The fade works. If you have one of the four fade guys, correct.

And then that's it. Like running a fade to Randy Moss worked like 80% of the time. Cause he's Randy Moss. Right. Running a fade to Jacoby Myers is not% of the time because he's Randy Moss. Right. Running a fade to Jacoby Myers is not the, not the go-to, but yeah. No,

but like the, it's funny. It's like when they used to bring in like Brandon Jacobs on the giants called me, he's huge. He's going to bowl you over at the goal line. It's like, who is the best goal line running back that you guys can remember in your

lifetime? There's a very easy answer for me of who, I mean, he's the best running back I've ever seen, but LaDainian Tomlinson wasn't the biggest guy in the world he would just run into a pile and pop out the other side yeah you don't need to be huge sometimes it might actually be to your benefit to be a little bit smaller yeah another guy too that popped in my mind is old and beyond connor probably charlie garner back in the day charlie garner was not, but he was incredible around the goal line and it would pile up touchdowns

because yeah, he's small and fast and yeah, Brandon Jacobs is just going to run into the back of his offensive line. That's all he's going to do. Hopefully he moves the pile forward and gets it, but like, gosh, it's so maddening.

It's like bring everyone to the one spot that you're going to be running. And it's like, why do we, why do you still do this? It's, it's so it's, it's asinine well it's funny because you're gonna see all these like mid-30s coordinators now like guys that are my

age and like your age and that kind of thing where i mean when we played madden growing up i mean there's something instructive to that where did you ever use a jumbo formation of madden never ever why because you could run it out of shotgun q sneak, spread it five wide at the goal line. And if they don't cover all of your receivers, well, just throw to them because they're wide open. Right. That might be a fade situation where you have a guy that can catch the ball. Even that's like worst case scenario. You spread it out and run it.

Like, yeah, it's insane. It works in college. It's impossible. It could never work in the NFL. Yeah. Yeah. Because, you know, the field is different. You know, the whatever, you work in the NFL. Yeah. Yeah, because the field is different. Whatever, the things are wider.

The ball is further out. It's stupid. Connor, Thrive Picks. I'm going to remind our folks again. If you missed at the top, Thrive Fantasy, new users, $20 deposit, promo code 444, free betting sub, 444, and the free t-shirt. Not bad. Anything that you looked at?

Again, I looked earlier. They have a $20 GPP, $25 GPP this week. As of like an hour ago, it had 250 entries. So again, probably not going to fill. Maybe it gets closer. Again, the prop lobby is out there too, which is kind of more of your traditional pick-em style game that you're familiar with

with other spots. But I like talking about some of the offerings that they have in the GPP. Did you look at anything this week? Uh, Zeke over under one and a half touchdowns. It's your free square of the week. You can bet down there, um, the, uh, there are some, some interesting ones that are a little bit off market. I mean, Tyler Lockett's prop is at five and a half. Normally it's here at six and a half, even though I do like kind of the game environment to shoot out there. So maybe a stay away, uh, Lamar, see that they're shading this higher here, but two 91 and a half passing and rushing yards combined, but he's just been passing so little. Uh, so I don't know, maybe you get away with an under there, Michael Pittman, uh, under half touchdown, you're getting almost even money there. I don't

think there's me very much scoring there in general. Um, and yeah, there's some other ones here that i think are interesting matt ryan over under half an interception i know i know that we don't normally like to bet these props jamar chase 79 receiving yards that's a great one too i mean that's with uh i mean that's like almost 80 yards in most domestic markets right yeah it's off market too and yeah um you'll see a lot of man coverage the other one too that i love is hollywood brown that's off market to. 64 and a half total receiving yards there. And you're actually getting incentivized to take the over where that's like low 70s out there across the market. So that's a pretty good look.

And they have good stuff that's more in line with the market because these don't move in their prop lobby. Those move a little bit more with what we're seeing at domestics. So again, 444 is the promo code, thrivefantasy.com. Free betting sub for $20 deposit on Thrive. Good for new users at 444, new subscribers. It's got to be a new Thrive user, new Thrive email, I'll say.

And yeah, take advantage. You get a free t-shirt that's good through October 24th. But the betting sub at 444 is going to take you through the end of the calendar year here for 2022 all right before we wrap it up um we're going to get to producer sal's pick of the week this is a question in chat and we saved it as well kind of ties in mike evans longest reception over 24 and a half receiving yards and sal is in on a thought that i echoed earlier with mike evans over 64 and a half receiving yards our projection has him a little over 77 and a half receiving yards. Our projection has him at a little over 77 and a half. Talked about how you can attack the Steelers on the boundaries. Pat, any thoughts on Evans?

It's fine. I just worry about if this game gets out of control, what does this look like? Sure. Connor, how about you? That's my only hesitation on any of these. Yeah. No, it makes sense though, right?

Game script can get out of whack and he's not a volume guy. Yep. Yeah. And I mean, the receiving core is just like i mean the healthiest it's been in a little while right now so evan's like well he looks good on the on the you know number specifically 81 103 61 71 so far this season uh you know i think that that's probably the only concern but i'd still lean over for sure maybe longest reception is a better way to play it because you all you need is one there um versus you know like two or three uh longer ones is anyone playing in the pittsburgh secondary

mika just got ruled out yeah make is a pro that's a big loss for them so yeah yeah he's not been practicing yeah it's not it's not great it's a it's a mess there um everyone's everyone's out i think from last week too i'm trying to look at here, what they see. I have a question for you. If someone bet you over or under Taysom Hill three fantasy points this week, what would you take? For sure? I mean, no, because he doesn't get any targets. It's like 20 or like 0.1.

That's what you're going to get. I think you got to play him. If you have him in fantasy, he's in the range of the other dudes that are like touchdown or bus guys right like he is in the er smith uh tyler conklin's of the world that we're talking about earlier like you know they're getting you three for 32 maybe um whereas the ceiling that you get from tasem if he plays is obviously what we saw last week so i don't know does the james thing impacted for you at all is james playing i don't know does the james thing impacted for you at all is james playing i don't know no dalton's starting they just announced it here there you go

does that no the james thing is not concerning me well does the dalton starting impacted for you do you think they lean on him more i guess because i mean average fantasy points per game for tasin hill with andy dalton of the starter is like 25 and a half. I think actually a better question would be part of it last week was a lot of it get concussed. Jarvis Landry was out and Michael Thomas didn't play. So do you think the lack of pass catchers where they want to get a little bit more frisky offensively matters more? Because I think that's probably more relevant than the quarterback. Well, a lot of it was in the game most of the game.

And it looks like he's going to play. Michael Thomas looks like he's not going to play. I don't care about Jarvis Landry at this point. But it's just, it's a specific package that they come in and put in. Like, you're going to see, like, four, the move would be, like, maybe Taysom Hill will come in and throw a passing touchdown

for four fantasy points. Yeah, he's, it's wild usage. But yeah, actually, for me, without michael thomas and uh it does look like alave is trending to play probably i'd probably take the over three points yeah i think i like that it would be it's funny because everyone hates tasem hill because of the money that he got that like phony contract that he had but he's actually pretty useful like he he is used in a way that we wish other guys were used on other teams. It's just people don't like Taysom Hill. Well, because yeah, he always cucks there.

Like, you know, you know, Kamara starts or like things like that. But yeah, I mean, he's incredibly efficient over a fairly large sample size at this point. Like you're right. And can do a multitude of things. Like we do probably agree that there are a bunch of other guys in the league that if they were utilized like Taysom Hill is, they replicate that or maybe better but like whatever like Taysom Hill's got a situation where they are like leveraging him and doing that sort of thing it's it's it's interesting to watch and you said the three defense guys were Z Franklin R Grant and A Singleton as I have written down yes uh

Franklin on the Colts Grant on the Fal, and Singleton on the Broncos. So those would be the three best looks in the tackle market this week. One week, you're just going to hit up a name randomizer and throw some out at us, and we'll just be nodding our heads because I've never heard any of these guys. We need Thrive to get in the streets with tackles. Our friends over at PrizePix, they stopped doing some tackle stuff. Like, come on, let's go. Let's get some of the tackles back out there.

We want to be able to take advantage of those. There's a really fun one over at one of those other sites, projected fantasy points, under 8.5 fantasy points for Tyler Algier. Just keep him out of the end zone, and that's free money. Yeah. Probably out of the end zone and that's free money. Probably out of the end zone too in that game. Don't hate

that at all. Questions? We didn't get you. First of all, step up into questions. We didn't get a lot this week. There's a few in here. We talked about some of them. It's going to get better. We need more from you guys. We'll devote more time to it if you guys give us more. Otherwise, we fill it with all of our nonsense. We talked about analytics and

fourth down coaching decisions, more tackle props, a little challenge in there for you. So Conor, get on there. Let's go. I need you to get in the challenge streets. YouTube it. Look for some, you know, watch Pat's show. Look at, you know, you can watch the, you know, YouTube's got a bunch of like, you know, the 20 best eliminations ever. You know, 15 best backstabs ever. You know, the 10 hookups that you didn't know happened. There's a lot of good stuff on there. So get in the streets.

I love tweeting it out because like half of Twitter thought I was like a complete moron. And another half was like, I've never even heard of that either. So I was like, you know what? That makes me feel at least a little better that I'm not the only one. It's interesting. I would love to know the age demographic that that agreed with you they're probably 25 or younger to have not heard of it most likely yeah i don't know it's it was winning cable in the 18 to 49 over the past like three years yeah i just mean like you wouldn't have heard at some point like

you that's probably the largest swath of people that hadn't heard of it would be maybe just non-cable non-satellite boomers like connor that just stream whatever like if it's not on netflix or hulu they have no idea that it exists so yeah all right pat where can everyone find your stuff at the pme on twitter mayo media network as ryan alluded to earlier you can subscribe to that on youtube or the podcast network under Mayo media network, primarily the Pat Mayo experience audio podcast, where as was pointed out,

we bring the funny, not great for football picks. I'm not going to lie to you. Pretty good. You know, it's entertaining. It's definitely good. You got to mix it up a little bit,

you know, lots of straightforward shows out there. The Mayo media network will bring you a combination of both. And it's good, good old-fashioned fun. If you like to listen to podcasts because you don't hate yourself for an hour, like, I listen to some of these shows. I had to stop listening because I'm just like, what is this? Like, some guy reading off a sheet for, like, my favorite plays this week are basically this show but you know without any sort of color

to them it's like here's our show today on the show we're gonna take kenny under 15 and a half rushing yards and then cooper rush under four and a half rushing yards and then raheem mossard over 14 and a half carries and Kirk cousins over 22 completions and Rashad white over 1.5 receptions like that. These are real shows that are out there like that. You won't see any of that shit on Mayo media network. We'll just have people yelling at each other. No,

that reminds me of the oversets. Uh, yeah, so good. Yeah. No good stuff. So, uh,

Connor, how about you? What else is going coming from you this week? Uh, trying to grind the prop market, you know, get, get right here, focusing a little more time. You know, maybe, maybe hit some, some like, you know, kind of off, off the table stuff here with like longest rush, longest reception unders kind of grind that market more.

It seems like it's a little exploitable. I mean, there were some good ones before cam makers got ruled out of that was going to hit, but obviously, you know, no go there anymore. So we'll see. Again, again subscribe rate and review we appreciate it likes on the show comments all that stuff helps us out way more than you know again lots of great other content here on the 444 youtube page dfs redraft waiver wire stuff we got it all here for you so uh for patent calm i'm ryan we'll be back next week. Thanks everyone.