Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 7 2023 Player PROP BETS | Top Picks, Predictions & Odds | Tua Tagovailoa & More!

Episode Date: October 20, 2023

Dive into our expert analysis of NFL Week 7 2023 Player PROP BETS! We'll cover top picks, predictions, and odds to help you make informed betting decisions. Spotlighting Tua Tagovailoa and other standout players, our experts offer insights based on stats, recent performances, and game dynamics. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or new to sports prop betting, this video is your ultimate guide to maximizing your returns for Week 7 of the 2023 NFL season. Timestamps:0:00 Intro4:52 Tua Tagovailoa NFL Player Prop8:28 Michael Mayer Week 7 Prop Bet11:53 Christian Watson Player Prop Bet Week 715:35 Miami Dolphins Prop Bets29:02 James Cook NFL Player Prop Bet32:20 Lamar Jackson Bet35:17 Curtis Samuel Week 7 Player Prop Bet40:34 Rashee Rice Prop Bet Week 748:01 Tackle Props58:04 Audience Questions1:04:19 OutroDon't miss out on these expert tips. Like, subscribe, and hit the notification bell for more NFL betting advice. Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow John on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/sloprulesVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

Hello and welcome to Move the Line Prop Drop Show presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan back to talk about the best way, the most profitable way to bet on NFL football, and that is through player props. Live here, 2 p.m. Eastern, every Friday. My friends on the 444Bets YouTube channel giving out our favorite player props and taking your questions. So if you're hanging out with us now on YouTube, jump in the chat,

let us know what your favorite prop for week seven is. If you want our thoughts on the play, something that is not on the board yet, anything like that, feel free to ask. We'll get to as many as we can here at the end of the show. Joining us live on YouTube is really the best way to get the same number and same price on these props. If you prefer the podcast version, we appreciate that as well. Should be in your feed later on Friday evenings. Subscribe to both. If you are on YouTube, please subscribe. Thumbs up. All those things go a long way in helping us supporting the free content here

that we're doing on 4 for 4. We appreciate it. Joining me here, as always, Connor Allen. What's going on, buddy? Not much. We're coming off a pretty wild week. Last week we hit our Bryce Young play on the show. I hit my under on the show as well.

Slop hated it, but we got there we almost won our 301 parlay we were close i mean we were literally we were very live who missed one more it was uh waddle waddle missed and who was right young felt like 10 yards short it was like 100 yards so it was like a 60-yard touchdown to jalen waddle and we win in whatever it was. Like it was 301, 30 K or something like that. It was, it was insane. So awesome week.

Excited to be back and live listeners. I mean, two weeks ago, David Montgomery, over his notes during the show, we were talking about a practice where it came out. Banger last week where he most are over his notes, mid show telling people,

slam it. Banger cash, both of those. So hopefully we get some more info today and can make some more money. Yeah. people slam it banger cash both of those so hopefully get some more info today and can make some more money yeah i actually had my first official play losing week of the season just giving a little bit of a back personally i'm one money because um aj brown alts and raheem mostart alts uh was we kind of you know had in our discord on uh on friday was uh made up for for all of it so uh hopefully we can give you some more. We've got a couple of bangers on the slate here, I know.

So I'm sure we'll have some overlap. We can build a similar same-game parlay and see if we can print some five-figure slips here. We got pretty close last week. Obviously, the other man here batting third for us, joining us from Odds Jam. Put him third because it drives everyone in. You know, it's the RBI spot, and that's what this guy does.

Again, on Twitter, at Slop Rules, John Hys at slop rules john hi slop slop how we doing today bud i'm just living the dream man living the dream i can't wait for this weekend to be honest with you yeah you know small smaller slate because we have six teams on by but uh you know doesn't mean we are gonna have big full cards full slate next week one gets a buy. So we'll have even more, you know, meat on the bone to pick from. So excited to jump into it. Before I want to remind you, two episodes of Move Align each week. Connor and myself are joined by Sharp Clark, who just tackles sides and totals like nobody's business. That's our game preview show.

That's on Wednesdays, 3 p.m. Eastern over on here. Same place. I'm sorry, 4 p.m. Eastern over on here same place i'm sorry 4 p.m eastern no matter where you're finding us youtube podcast there as well you can check out that every week too and a great time if you want to get into the discord perfect time to check out our betting subscription to 444 that's where our official plays are posted in the discord which is hopping all the time we got nba starting on tuesday you know those guys are absolutely chomping at the bit to get fired up and fire at the nba product every night they get to you know build ladders uh every every night you know we get to build it

once a week they're all all the time firing on these things everything that we do it for is covered in the betting subscription so if you're still grinding season long you like to play dfs you want to get into the pick'em games prize picks, underdog, vivid picks. We have channels in our discord for all that stuff. Literally all the articles, tools, rankings, projections, all that stuff over four for four. It's already discounted because we're in week seven, but you use promo code prop drop name of the show here. It's an additional 25% off, which is again, already like 25% off. So you're almost half off of what our normal subscription price is. Again, Hey, maybe season long stuff's not going so well. You want

to get in there. You want to get in these streets and start betting a little bit, get into these player props, the easiest way to transition. You don't want to be full on sharp Clark, you know, lane, you know, 10 and a half against on the Broncos in Kansas city. That's not for everyone, but player props, you can jump in. Take advantage. Again, promo code PROPDROP over at 444.com slash plants. All right, Connor. Floor is yours. No stale bread.

Live lines all available for our people right now. Floor is yours. Week seven. What do you got for us? All right. We're starting it off with an over. Again, got to make slop happy off the beginning here. Can't start it off with a wet blanket.

Two at Tonga by Lowe. We're going to go over 272.5 passing yards. Talked about it a little bit on the Wednesday show here, but I think that this Eagles defense here is a little bit overrated. So two in the Dolphins offense so far, electric, tops in basically every passing offense metric. Eagles defense so far, 31st in explosive pass rate allowed, despite four other games coming against basically bottom-tier passing attacks, the Patriots,

Commanders, Bucs, Jets. Kirk Cousins and the Vikings are basically the only counted passing attack that they played. They allowed 364 yards and four touchdowns. The Eagles are also a massive pass funnel, so their run defense is playing super well. Their pass defense has been fine, but still a little bit banged up. Safety Reed Blankenship looks like he's going to miss, didn't practice yesterday. Bradley Roby, another corner, bit banged up uh safety read blanket ship looks like he's going to miss didn't practice yesterday bradley robey another corner maybe banged up as well so i think they're going to really see something they haven't so far uh i like tua and the dolphins to pass a bunch here and i think i might be included in again in my hot takes next in the next segment here but i think that over 272 is a little bit light here I think we have like 285 and 290 projected. And I think you can play all of this as well.

There's a 375 plus at 9-1 at Caesars, which is money. So I don't know. I think that's an interesting all up there, but there's a couple other ones we'll talk about in a little bit. Yeah, love the spot for all things passing game here. Yeah, Justin Evans, the other starting safety um he's on ir so they're dealing with backup safeties at both spots in this in this game you know darius slay looks like he's gonna play but he's dinged up he mentioned bradley robey slot corner so like philly is is kind of

beat up in a number of spots uh slop any thoughts here on uh on tua and in this game environment, which I think is going to be electric for sure. Tua, it was my banger-banger for the next segment here. It was 75 plus 1,100 at Caesars right now. I did that on the Thunderdome. I think he's going to get that. I think he can go 400 plus. I'm dead serious. That's not crazy to say. Just for all the things that Connor mentioned,

literally he said everything that the whole reason why I was looking at this. Like, they are a pass funnel. I do not think the Dolphins are going to be able to run on them. And I think McDaniels or what's his name? Mike? Yeah, Mike McDaniels. Him. I think he knows.

Like, I think he's that kind of coach that will just go in there knowing, all right, we're not going to be able to run, just start it off, you know, just go. And they're the kind of team that wants to score 60 every time out. It's not like, hey, let's hold the ball, let's, you know, be strategic here. It's just like, hey, let's just put it in the end zone and then make the other team outscore. So I think that he can go 400-plus.

Like, I really think that. I can't wait to watch this too. Yeah, I can go 400 plus. Like I really think that I can't wait to watch this too. Yeah. I can't wait to my crazy ladder. Same game parlay section for sure is derivatives off of this game as well, which I thought we, I thought there'd be a chance that we were all on the spot where this is a game that has,

there's just so much ceiling. There's so much ceiling to the alphas in this game. And yeah, love it. I love the over, love the play Connor, love the look. And we'll,

we'll expand on that here momentarily, unless you got something else you want to say. No, it's just so much fun to build SGPs with the dolphins because they actually have a chance to hitting like, that's like most teams you're looking at like a hundred plus bat receiving yards. You're like,

God, it's kind of tough. It's a stretch. I mean, Tyree kill. That's like automatic, you know, Jalen Waddle. I mean, he's due, you know, so we'll, we'll talk about tough. It's a stretch. I mean, Tyreek Hill, that's like automatic. Jalen Waddell, I mean, he's due. So we'll talk about him more in the next thing.

All right, Slop, what do you got, buddy? What's the first play here for Week 7? How about somebody in the chat kind of stole my thunder too. So Michael Mayer, the Raiders, they're playing the Bears. I just took his over two-and-a- half receptions plus 150 at DraftKings, so we'll do that one too. But I also have his over 20 and a half at DraftKings. Look, I think it was one minus 125.

I can't remember what I got. The best line is at BetMGM right now. It's minus 115, but they'll only let me bet like nine bucks, so you got to go somewhere else but like i think that guy is like a part of their offense like i don't think it's just like he jumped over austin hooper and that's it like last week he played 81 of the snaps they looked at him early uh hoyer looked at him uh later in the game too so we're all good there it's not like he's like a jimmy g thing I think he's gonna catch at least three balls like the Bears for all the things that they don't do well which is a lot they kind of stop the run a little bit and the Raiders don't

really have a run so like passing the ball against them we're talking about a like a backup quarterback game here so it could get weird like throwing the ball i think only six teams have given up more receiving yards to tight ends this season than they have two and a half catches it's such a low bar to get over especially at plus 150 that's a great number yeah that must have just come out i mean yeah just did yeah yeah that's a i mean just increased usage and you know not a standard you, blocking in line tight end only. Like they moved them out. They put them in the slot a little bit.

They found ways to get them involved. And I do like the point that I don't think it really matters that we don't know who's playing quarterback there, but you know, that's nice matchup here. Nice safety blanket for whoever's playing quarterback. Any thoughts on that Connor? I mean, plus one 50 for two and a half receptions, a pretty low bar uh we don't even need them to really do anything catch and fall down yeah i like i like the yards to 20 and a half that kyle baker mentioned there in the chat

i think both are really solid they talked about it two weeks ago and it was like in a press conference that wasn't that they were talking about like hey should we get michael mayor like well why is he not playing very much and you know the office coordinator was like oh well we're gonna get him more involved you know he's earned more playing time he's really good like so we're gonna get them ball more the next two weeks he's been running way more routes he's been popping off so i guess my only concern would be aiden o'connell slash brian hoyer i think probably see o'connell right that's what i would guess but um i think that's still fine he's still been getting there you know so i don't think that matters. And the bar is so low that I don't think it really matters that much.

Yeah. Yeah, it's a good look, Slav. I like it quite a bit. I kind of want the bad quarterback. You know what I mean? Like for the tight end because you'll just see him just, sorry, there he is, dump it off, done. You know, like he's going to catch balls that, you know,

the route wasn't even going to him just because the quarterback's bad, you know. I think O'Connell had like 200-something yard, 230-something in his start too. So I'm not that afraid of him. He was going full Jameis. Like he was throwing some straight-up yellow balls and like triple coverage. I respect it. Yeah, I love that. I mean, that's like – that's fun.

Make the NFL fun again, you know. And again, at the end of the day, it's two and a half. Like, come on. Yeah. Yeah. You're not dead. You know, that could be the last drive of the game with zero catches. You got a shot on that one.

So not dead until the end there. All right. First look for me, I'm kind of staying in this lane. I've been doing it typically with running backs with longest rushes uh successfully um i think that play if you were here last week is probably still viable again this week um let's you know shout out call back to uh our og listeners but i'm going to do a longest reception play here we are going to go with christian watson longest reception over 22 and a half yards uh readily available rivers out at minus 108 dk minus 110

same on mgm caesar's right there minus 111 um watson's a dot is absolutely nuts seven or 19.8 yards per target uh again smaller sample size because he's missed some time but just wild average of the target guess who was allowing the largest yards per attempt all season? The Denver Broncos, a team that we've been basically a punching bag for any props so far this season. On top of that, Watson is a pretty decent, for

a guy who runs deep, pretty decent yards up for the catch guy, and that's actually been a problem for Denver as well. 53.2% of the receiving yards against them have been yak, which is the fifth highest rate in the league. And look, the Jordan Love situation has been kind of hit or miss, right? It's been pretty inaccurate. It's not been great. But the one thing that's working for him is the O-line is giving him a ton of time. When you look at time to pressure rate, the Packers

offensive line is the best in the league. Love has a ton of time to sit back and throw. So sometimes we worry about longest reception prop, especially with a guy with an A-dot like this. He needs time to work down the field. Well, he's going to have it here because also the Broncos' 31st in pressure rate in the season, they basically have just cut all of their pass rushers, like no one that can get a pass rush is even on the team anymore. So kind of a great spot to highlight the strength for Watson and a weakness for the Broncos.

And again, love this price here, 22 and a half readily available minus one away on Rivers. So Connor, any thoughts here to expand? I know we talked about it earlier in the week and I think you like it too. Yeah, Jordan Love has been really bad under pressure. But like, as you mentioned, the Broncos don't get pressure and the Packers are pretty good at withstanding that but without pressure his adot is massive like he does not care to throw the ball underneath and take some safe plays he wants to get as much as he can when he can so it's just like one of those things where now watts is healthy ran way more routes um i like it i think that the longest reception i probably prefer that i would say longest

receptions or alts and then maybe the standard line, just because he's going to be so boom or bust. If he hits that long one, I mean, you're cashing basically everything. If he doesn't, you're probably losing the binary prop anyway. So I think that that's probably my favorite looks on the way to approach Watson here. Yeah, I think we're up to 52.5 on his receiving line, open at 48.5, but even that was the same process. I still liked the longest reception look.

Anyway, is this something that can wet your beak here a little bit, Slop? What do you think on Watson? That's the only way I think I'd play that, just because you don't want to go, you know, with any type of volume. But, yeah, like I actually played him a couple weeks ago, longest reception. He caught the bomb, like whoever it was. I think played him a couple weeks ago, Longish Reception. He caught the bomb, like whoever it was.

I think it was a prime time game. But, yeah, that's the way you play Christian Watson if you're going to play him, Longish Reception. Yeah, I love that spot. Yeah, still out there again everywhere at decent prices for the most part. DraftKings looks like they're moving a little bit, but still readily available. So, all right, let's get wonky. I feel like we're going to have some interesting thoughts here.

Let's go. Same game parlays. Let's go ladders, alts, whatever we want to do. Connor, do you want to take the floor build off of, I think probably what you already did.

Yeah. So I built out a little SGP here that involved one of your props to the played already this week. So I think we're probably going to be a little combo SGP here, but it's 357 to one. I've got 30 bucks to win $10,000 and 700 bucks. So it's in the dolphins Eagles game, Sunday night football,

uh, it's going to talk about low 350 plus passing yards and three touchdowns. So again, you're, you're betting on a ceiling outcome there. That was the max all that you could do. Um, I paired him with Jalen Waddle at one 25 plus instead of Tyreek.

Uh, again, I know that that's a little scary because his usage has not been great, but one of these games is going to happen. I know it's going to happen, and he's going to go off for like 200 receiving yards, and I think that it's going to be here. It's just one of those things where his ADOT and his usage was so good last year, and he was so explosive and getting so many long plays that I just struggle to think that just because he's had a couple bad games in a row where it hasn't you haven't seen that explosiveness that it won't just happen so I think in this spot here is for a lot of the reasons of matchup wise I think we're going to see

potential explosive game explosion game here especially if Tua throws for a lot and then I added DeAndre Swift 100 plus rushing yards uh you talked about it there great matchup on the ground he's been seeing the majority of the work um I don't know, anything you wanted to add on that one? No, I love him in this spot. I mean, I think he's 61 and a half rushing yards is what I played. Yeah, the Miami defense just really hasn't faced anyone that's had to – been able to run on them because they blow everyone out and just kind of flip the script. And I think Philly is able to do so.

Lane Johnson looks like he's turning in the right direction. Yeah, I love Swift, and I think he's really taking over that alpha role there so yeah i love building him into this parlay also so i so it was a five-legger i added aj brown 125 is the last leg there um absolutely smith banged up i mean xavian howard i don't know if he's gonna play or injured i mean if he is playing injured and either way. Brown against man coverage has been like an absolute animal, like one of the best in the leagues. Coming off with three straight – four straight 125-plus yard games, I mean, has just been cooking.

So I don't know. Again, one of those things where any other team, any other matchup, this sounds completely outrageous, but in this game, and we're getting 350-to-1 on things that I think is actually very, very reasonable. I absolutely love it. I'm going to do iterations of it. I will, you know, I would love to get more creative and have something else in the car, but I think, you know, finding different ways to get access to this game and the ceiling outcomes,

which I think to Slop's point with his, you know, pro Tyreek stuff, like it just feels more attainable than the other spots. We're talking about ceiling outcomes, like this game environment, again, weather permitted, but I don't even think the weather looks like it's going to be that much of an issue. I think maybe it's helping us keep these prices down and be honest. I think this is a game that can go absolutely bonkers slop. What do you got here on the, you know,

same game parlay ladder section of the show? So Tua, obviously, the 375. Tyreek Hill, also at Caesars, 150-plus is plus 500. Every time he's been over 100 yards, it's been like 150-plus every time, like four out of six games i think so yeah if you can get down on points bet at all points bet has 155 plus at six to one jesus wow yeah points bet seems to have like pretty uh awesome alt lines here if you uh have the ability to get down on uh points better at all have they changed anything with fanatics have they like lightened the limits at

all or done anything? I've had better luck. I had better luck last week. It was kind of the first time I took some shots with some of the A.J. Brown stuff. I was able to get down more than before. So I haven't put out standard bets there typically because they're usually late to the game.

But I was encouraged. So we'll see. Ladder's a little bit easier yeah like they literally have the same it looks just like points bet fanatics does yeah i'm looking at it right now it's like like you're on points yeah it says points fanatics right next to each other it's the same interface it's literally the same thing but no like so they have hill 155 plus you're saying yeah hill uh 155 plus six to one uh aj brown 155 plus 15 to one hill 170 plus plus 1100. we're making records out here baby listen listen though we we joke we joke but all right Tyree Kill in in games where you know we're throwing the ball 163 181 157 215 like those

are the four times she's been over 100 the other games was New England where yeah they got kind of wild and Buffalo you, they got rolled. And I think Buffalo has a decent pass defense, so I'll give them a pass there. But the other four games, I mean, dude, they were doing to the Giants, the Panthers, the Broncos, the Chargers. I mean, even I guess bad teams even like, you know, keep the gas pedal down. So 170 plus is not that crazy for plus 1100. there's a bunch of prop sites that like build their entire handicap off of like amount of times it's happened he's done it four

out of six times this year you know like that's you put in a graph and put in the chart and you would tell you that you know he's got a 66.7 hit rate uh going over 155 plus like you know it's it's not wild it's a thing all right so am i allowed to change my mind on the tour thing because uh i just found i didn't know they were doing this at finax 400 plus is plus 1500 oh my gosh you already did that this year i think that's in play i really do. I don't think that's that ridiculous. What's going to happen if the Dolphins come out firing, which you know they will, but if it's working, the Eagles can keep up.

They're going to try and hold the ball probably. There is that risk that they don't go on one of those eight-minute drives. That sucks. The Dolphins can score back on them. they just keep going so it could turn into one of those games where it's you know 41 to 40 to just like just ridiculous weird games and i mean i don't know i don't think that's plus 1500 no i mean if he does it you have

to i mean may as well add you you know, Tyreek to a degree. And then you put Tyreek in there at 125 and now it's 22 to one. Yeah. Or he's not getting to 400 without Tyreek getting a buck and a quarter. Yeah. Right. So, yeah, it makes, it makes a ton of sense. I love all of it.

Same thing. Like it's, I'm with you guys. Like this is, I think you should have some iterations of some, some ceiling outcomes in this game, folks. You know, you just, you should should have some iterations of some, some ceiling outcomes in this game, folks. You know, you just, you should,

it's first of all, it's a Highland game on a Sunday night. We've had some pretty crappy Island games. I hope we've had some pretty crappy supposedly marquee games. I'm really hoping this one kind of bucks the trend. And I think from like a, not even a football standpoint, but I think from like a cheering for ceiling outcomes, cheering for overs,

cheering for, you know, insane type of outcomes. I think we do have a spot where I feel pretty good about it here this week. So, yeah, we're in the right neighborhood. Yeah. So the last thing is I'd probably recommend doing all this stuff at Fanatics if you can because they have the highest ceilings that I've found. I didn't even know this existed today.

I'm going in. They also now are letting you, and this seems new to me, and maybe it's not because, again, I don't have a lot of volume here typically, but they are now, they have alt pass attempts, alt completions, and then they also have alt recept receptions on the receivers and two. So in terms of building out some, you know, some different iterations of same game parlays, you can get pretty, pretty multiple over here. Again,

if you can get down anything whatsoever. No, you're right. I've been like dreaming of the day you could do all attempts. Oh yeah. That's just, that's living right there, guys. Yeah.

Yeah. Team totals. Oh no. The team total thing. So yeah, I mean, this is my favorite, like degenerate bed of the week.

I know Connor knows about this. I've been doing it for a couple of years. I take bad teams and I tease the total up 24 and a half, 28 and a half. I take good teams. I tease the total up 24 and a half, 28 and a half. I take good teams. I tease the total down 16 and a half, 19 and a half. And I'll build multi-leg parlays. I've hit three in a row that have all been like seven and eight leggers that,

you know, are embarrassing. Yeah, because I'm taking, you know, you take the bills against the patriots over 16 and a half and i take the patriots under 28 and a half so it's like a bunch of legs you get it to three to one it's a nice little yeah it's a nice little parlay you know so yeah you have a crap ton of legs theoretically uh but yeah it's a uh it's something that you can do on Fanatics if you are able to play around. So, yeah.

I'm going to stay here. I want more stuff. I want A.J. Brown involved too. I know that Devonta Smith is due, but what A.J. Brown is doing right now is pretty sick. And, yeah, I think other guys can get in the mix. A.J. Brown is doing it on a lot of big plays. He's not doing it on this insane amount of target volume.

So you can do some different things. You can bring the quarterbacks in it too. But if you just want AJ Brown and Tyreek both at 125 plus, which I think we all agree is very attainable, 16 to 1. For AJ Brown and Tyreek to get 125 plus on fanatics. Dude, 34 and a half points for Miami plus 425. Dude, throw that in. Yeah, you do that same thing, both of those two with 125 plus.

You add two at 275, which Connor already put a stamp of approval on. Hurts at 225, 19-1. We're not even getting that wild, which again, I know having two receivers get there. But again, the game state, the way that they're going to play off of each other, that does help. The way that these are correlated does matter in this sense.

So you take A.J. Brown all the way up to 155 at 15-1. He almost got, I think he was 15-1 last week at 140. And it felt really good when they threw that pick six and they got the ball back. I'm like, oh, because I took the ladders all the way up there and I needed, you know, nine more yards for him. We just like overthrew him on first down and that was kind of it. But, yeah, he got real close in that game

against a significantly tougher you know pass defense so uh you know the miami pasty is not something that should be scaring us here so you know you want to get wonky you want to layer in devonta smith no problem with that you want to add jaylen wattle i think you can can do that as well but i mean just the things you can do with some pretty attainable numbers of tyrie and A.J. Brown, I think, is something I highly, highly recommend. So, yeah, play around with that. Vandal also has some decent prices. I think Cesar knows his stuff.

Yeah, the weather, I was looking into this just now, not going to be that bad. So it's like 15-mile-per-hour winds, gusts up to 20. That's totally fine. We don't really see big impact until there's, like, strong wins, 20-plus, like, sustained. And I don't think we're going to get that. Also, I think with Tyreek and Waddle, a lot of it's like there's plenty of short-to-intermediate explosive play.

So it's not just like they're gunning it 40 yards downfield over the opponent's head. It's like short-to-intermediate stuff that they're just so much faster than everyone else. Same with De'Jay Brown. I mean, how's his level? That's exactly right. Like, that's exactly right like

that's exactly right like the guy catches one five six yards away from the line of scrimmage it's a 45 yard gain he's like what the hell is happening but yeah yeah uh candor's showing out uh fanatics points bad if you can aj brown and tyreek to both go 155 plus 101 um oh my gosh i'm gonna have so many different it's one of those ones at the end when the game's like 17 13 final and you're gonna lose everything i have no idea but yeah i just think it's gonna happen so you gotta go right you know i mean yeah yeah think you got to throw a bunch of different iterations out there. You know, some that are taking you to the ceiling, some that are taking you to lower legs of the ladder for sure.

I think you just got to have some exposure to this in some way. So again, we're talking about fanatics. This is available. You can do some of these things on other books too, like Caesar's Fan Duel. DraftKings has alts. They don't typically go as high. So this is not something that is just Fnatic specific.

They just typically right now we're finding that they have the best prices for this specific game. So check it out if you can. All right. Now that we have, I think, shot our full load on Miami and Philadelphia, I don't want to say, hey, if you guys have another one, go for it. We can still continue there. I need to be done. I don't want to say, hey, if you guys have another one, go for it. We can still continue there. I need to be done.

I don't want my balance to be zero, and it's all going to be on wild dolphins, eagles props. Connor, I'm going to give you the floor again. If you want to give us another just basic prop for week seven. What do you got, bud? It gets even better than a basic prop here because we're going with an under. James Cook, under 55 and a half rushing yards against the Patriots this week. You know, Latavius Murray technically started, got the first carries last week.

He's been getting more and more work. I think that's kind of under the radar here because I thought this line was going to be in like the mid to high 40s. And so now we're getting a spot here where they keep using more and more Latavius Murray. Latavius Murray's look good. Now they get a Pat's run defense allowing just 3.48 yards per carry. They're second in the rushing success rate. They're good on early downs, you know, at least run defense wise.

So I don't know. I kind of think here that like 55 and a half, it's going to take a long one for James Cook to get there. Like, I mean, he literally only had two more carries than Latavius Murray last week, and they combined for 26 carries. I mean, that's a lot of running rushing attempts. That's not going to be the case every week. So it seems like a tough matchup here where his projectable volume, I think it's anywhere in the 8 to 12, 13 carry range here.

He could easily fall under 55 rushing yards. Yeah, the emergence of Latavius Murray being like the dude there is pretty interesting. I know this is not something that you like slopping, and we've had some success. We've catched some nice tickets earlier this season on James Cook. Any thoughts on this rushing attack here against New England with it looks like Harris out for this game.

It's kind of a two-headed monster with Cook and Murray. I haven't scratched off. I didn't even look into it at all like it was like there's like dude going down the list there's so many games i was like yeah i'm not even like looking at that that was one of them uh the giants commanders was one browns colt even because they're all unders like so i bet like Connor was like Christmas for him, seeing all these like 30s and low 40s totals. He's ready to go, but I just crossed my – I can't even look. Yeah, our tracking guy put together some of our like data so far this year. I'm hitting 75% of my running back unders,

and I have like four this week already. But you would be so – you'd be so happier to know that i lost alvin camara's rushing under on the last play of last week or the thursday game because they literally had 43 rushing yards it took under 52 they did a draw with the minute 30 left last night and he got 15 yards or whatever it was i mean 15 rushing yards and i lost i'm like literally a minute 30 left they're driving the field what are they doing running the ball? He's a receiver now too. The guy's catching like 10 balls. He's like, you know what? I'm not a running back when it comes to contract

time. He's going to show them his receiving numbers. Yeah. That's not what I thought that Slop would like here, but I think it's sound and I think it's hard to lean into what's winning, right? If you seem like maybe you have an edge, lean into that a little bit. You always want to try to win. Like those guys, they're looking to get money out of this.

So if you like money, I would take that. It's kind of a thing. Yeah, it works really well. It's my favorite part of the whole thing, to be honest. Slop, to you, bud, what is your third look here for the week? I really don't have a lot more outside of the Meyer and – or Mayer, whatever, and the million Dolphins-Eagles. But one I will look for is possibly look into Lamar Jackson's over and passing yards.

I think maybe Detroit might be for real. And if they are, they could hang points on them. And if that happens, Lamar Jackson over, I think it's like 212 or something like that. I'm looking at now. Hang on. 216 and a half. I think that, I mean, you go 225 right there and just kind of call it a day. I mean, it's not the sexiest bet in the world, but at the same time, I mean,

plus 110 on Lamar to throw for 225 yards in a game where they could trail. Like, even though they're at home, I mean, I think that kind of helps us. You know, I think Detroit will score on them. I don't think Baltimore's going to be able to run the ball like they want to. We just need a big player, maybe two, and we're probably home there. But, yeah, I haven't locked that in yet. So full disclosure, if you look at my picket, it's not going to be there because I haven't done it yet.

I'm still kind of working through. I got stuck this morning on Mayer, and then I got stuck again on the Eagles, Dolphins. Like I'm still stuck there. And now that I found points, or whatever I found, fanatics, I don't know that i'm i know what i'm doing for the rest of the day at least like i don't yeah so maybe i don't get there because tomorrow's saturday obviously that's called football day but uh yeah i'm i'll probably

end up lamar somehow some way and if i do it'll be 225 plus plus 110 yeah i do think that the i do think that den or detroit is real but that doesn't mean that Lamar can't get it done there. Connor, if you looked at the weather there too, I know earlier in the week we were thinking there was going to be some weather issues in that one. Does that look okay right now? Or do you have any thoughts on that matchup to talk about Lamar specifically? Weather-wise, looking at, yeah, sustained 15 to 20 mile per hour winds, gusts 30 miles per hour.

So it's on the border. I mean, again, like if it becomes sustained 20-plus, I think it could certainly become a little bit worse here. It's obviously, too, with Jared Goff, we don't really want to, you know, back him with any weather issues because he's got a little baby hand. So we don't want to. He's so small. Yeah, literally.

He's got little children's mitts. So I think that it's tough. Yeah, both their run defenses are really good, baltimore's pass evens has played well so it's like kind of a weird game here where it's how much do we factor in their metrics versus who they played versus because like detroit's only played one basically good off passing offense and they shredded them like seattle uh and so i don't know i go back and forth forth on it. I played a Gus Edwards under as well on the rushing yards. But, you know, again, I'm a sicko for unders. Yeah, exactly.

We love you and your issues. It's okay. You're consistent. So it works for you. I am going to – well, we have a couple here. So I'm going to do one, and you and I have one together, which we're going to get out here. First, I'll go with – this is one I was surprised to kind of stumble into and i thought it was a

great line curtis samuel uh over 35 and a half receiving yards this one's kind of bouncing around between 34 and a half 36 and a half um but i was able to just get down to 35 and a half this is on if you have prop builder if you have draft king caesars mgm uh all out there i mean he's averaging 47 and a half per game this is a little surprising he's topped this in five straight all but week one and we're way off uh market there um and now it's a matchup against the giants is really nice giants run man coverage at the second highest rate they blitz a ton you know that's kind of their mo they're going to do that a lot in this matchup. And Curtis Samuel plays primarily like almost 70% of his routes

so far this season coming out of the slot. His yards per route run jumps from 1.37 against zone to 1.92 against man. Pretty significant jump. Again, he's not playing full-time like 70% of the routes, but still he's like, he's run 42 fewer-time, like 70% of the routes, but still, he's run 42 fewer routes than Jahan Dotson this season. He has two more targets and 10 more receptions than Jahan Dotson. He has two fewer receptions than Terry McLaurin. So Curtis Samuel is a massive part of this passing game. So 35 and a half,

not a high threshold for him to do based off of his workload. So I like this one quite a bit. You know, if you like taking all to over there, like you could take 50 plus, you know, for like probably three to one or something on Curtis Samuel. I haven't looked at that,

but that's, you know, plus two 50 or something like that. I think he's going to be very much involved in this game. So like Curtis Samuel, Connor, do you have any thoughts on this matchup involved in this game. So like Curtis Samuel, Connor, do you have any thoughts on this matchup with someone that you probably didn't look at?

Because this is not your style. You would grab a Curtis Samuel under probably. I would, but the matchup is really, really good. The Giants defense sucks. I mean, they are just like terrible at everything. So I don't like backing unders against like absolutely horrible defenses. So it was kind of just a stay away from me. I didn't even look at it,

but the usage is interesting. I just like, can't get a grasp of that because we saw Logan Thomas, the insane usage. Right. And then they were like, they called them out on it. They're like,

why is Logan Thomas like the focal point of your offense? And Eric, the enemy, then he saw his routes decrease and he had like one target, I think last week. And so that, that was a little strange. I thought that that was probably a result of them not passing very much.

But I think he'll be more involved. I think Curtis Samuel will continue to be involved. Also, Jahan Dotson now holding kicks. You know, I don't know if you saw that working with the special teams coach. Yeah. I know. Because I know you were a Dotson stand too. So I think – but Curtis Samuel was like automatic in the prop market last year,

if you remember that. I mean, that was like – he was automatic over. So, I don't know. If he's seen more work, Dotson's kind of seen less. I think it's probably a good look. Slop, any thoughts on Washington passing game here? I hate that game at all. Like the thought of waking up Sunday and being like, yo,

I'm going to throw on the Giants commanders because I have something that just makes me sick. But at the same time, yeah, I mean, I would look at the 50 plus on Samuel. I was a very big Dotson guy and I hate the emergence of Samuel and he's there to stay. They're going to throw him the ball. They're using him. They love him. Somebody in the fantasy space was huge on him for, like, years when he was with the Panthers. I don't remember who that was. But, like, huge on him.

So every time I see him, like, I think that guy was right, I guess. Because here he is years later. Took him a while. Like, you know what I mean? He's still here just like ruining other guys fantasy props so yeah like he'll definitely go over but 50 plus is probably where i'd look first yeah let me see what the 50 plus number is he might not even have a 50 plus number because he's oh no he does uh so someone draft kings plus 175 i'm guessing there's probably better out there. Yeah.

Fanatics probably. Fanatics. Fanatics is probably better based off of – 100 plus. Plus 1000 guys. Whoa. Ben added here, Ben Carey of Capwise said, points bet has some really off-market lines for props across the board for Sunday. Moving very slow.

Yeah, guys. And just a shout-out here. Like, obviously we can't release to all of our subscribers, like some of these lines, but like, if you're just betting and betting for yourself and trying to maximize the amount of money you're making, like just smash some of these terrible books. I mean, there's posting lines that are way off. Like, you know, I mean, you're probably gonna get your account cooked, but I mean, you're not probably looking to make this a full-time job forever. So like, you know, just get what you can down and take advantage. And then whenever you're done with points bet close up shop and go somewhere else you know like everyone else

to piggyback up that your account's gonna get cooked anyways at one of those books so it's only a matter of time so you might as well take them for as much as you can 100 even if you're wrecking them on the standard lines they're still gonna they're still gonna hit oh yeah they are i don't care what anyone says like uh betmgGM was one, not to call them out or anything, but, like, I was just standard lines over there. That was it. I wasn't even, like, going all-star. So I can bet $10 there.

So you're going to get cooked anyway, so take them for as much as possible. Take advantage of it. All right, good. This is a play that Connor and I talked this afternoon about because I've shifted into a defensive first mode in terms of props that I focus on. So anytime I have offensive props that I like, I want to toss and run by Connor because I don't want to step on his toes

if it was something he was waiting on or if he was going to have it for the show or whatnot. But we both like this. This is on his list. We are both playing Rasheed Rice over 37 and a half. There's 36 and a half out there. It's kind of all over the place. It's moving quite a bit right now. But we are playing 37 and a half minus 115 on DraftKings. Again, we're both, we both like this line, pretty straightforward. He's an ascending

player that every time he kind of gets out there, makes some plays. Last week, only four targets, caught all four. Real low A-dot, but has some spark after the catch, 72 yards. Now we have the scenario with Justin Watson out with a dislocated elbow. It's really hard to not see maybe 60% of the snaps for Rasheed Rice. Last week it was 50. That was a season high.

But he played like 60 once Watson went out so both of us like this play in the spot against uh you know the the Chargers who you should be able to pick apart through the air Connor you want to expand on anything here in terms of uh Rasheed Rice I think you summed up pretty well there to be honest but just like when I watch Rasheed Rice sometimes he catches the ball and he just like explodes like it's very clear that he's like their best wide receiver by far. Like it's not even close at this point. They obviously drafted him high. They had pre-draft workouts with him and Patrick Mahomes.

They're building more rapport. They've been talking him up. Now we have Justin Watson out, leaving more opportunity for him. I'm sure MBS, I'm sure Sky Moore is still going to be running wind sprints out there, but those guys don't earn targets. So like I think that's a big deal. Also, Derwin James in practice again. So I know that he mostly lands up on Kelsey,

but I think having two viable weapons there with Rasheed Rice and Kelsey there, I think that's going to be their duo going forward because we've talked about it before. This Kansas City offense needs more than just Kelsey. It can't operate with an aging tight end over the middle. You know what I mean? It needs more than that, and I think that Rice can be that guy here. So, we're getting a lot of 36 and a half yards in a matchup here

where the Chargers are allowing, what are they, 30? I think they're dead last in explosive pass rate allowed was the stat. Like, they're literally allowing the most explosive pass plays in the league. So, we're at a number where it's not like an all-it-takes-is-one number, but pretty close. I mean, we're like, you know, a couple receptions here and a long one, and we're good to go. Yeah, the thing is the average of the target is so low,

so he's got to run after the catch, but that's what he's done. And that's what I think we all agree that Kansas City's offense needs at this point. So at a certain point, again, this isn't – you typically see or you hear a lot about that rookie post-bye bump. We don't have that here, but we do have an injury and we do have like the 10 day bump with the mini by coming off of a Thursday night. So like, I do think that that helps rice here get just a little bit more acclimated, a little bit more comfortable with understanding

that he's stepping into an expanded role. And yeah, I just, I, I think it's only a matter of time. Cause he's like you said, there's guys are out there a little bit more, but they're not target owners. And that's kind of what rice was at SMU. I mean, he really was a massive target earner in college as well. So I'm excited to see him get a little bit more. Slop, any thoughts on Rasheed Rice, 37 and a half? I mean, I don't see why you stopped there. I mean, 90 plus, plus 950 at DraftKings is kind of calling my name. I mean, here's the thing. The Chargers kind of stopped the run like a little bit. Like they're not a good bunch,

but they're not somebody that you could just line up and gash. So teams have been throwing on them. Guess what? Receivers kind of go wild. I think only like five teams have given up more receiving yards to wide receivers. So there's your mark. I get that that got kind of hit a lot by the Dolphins in the week one. I mean, they had like 1,000 yards on them.

But still, if you look back, like last week, I think it was CeeDee Lamb was just an automatic play. You know, like he went way over his number. Well, I'm not saying this guy's CeeDee Lamb. I'm just saying, like, receivers can get home whenever they want on them. And that's the chief receiver. I mean, that's him. Like Connor said, Sky Moore is not the guy.

They went and just traded and got Hardman back. You know what I mean? There's this red flashing sign saying, hey, we don't have a receiver. You know what I mean? Well, that's their guy. It's Rice. So without Watson, yeah, I don't see why not. Unfortunately, Fanatics does not have a Rasheed Rice goal.

I already looked, bro. I was like, all right, my new favorite book, Fanatics. Let's see what they got. I mean, 72 last week. 70-plus is 4-1. 80-plus, 6-1. Looks like we're locked. Yeah, it's really not.

It's really not. I mean, we're locked out on whatever the top number was. Shout out to someone in this chat, hammering whatever that was. 90 plus, plus 850, as Slop mentioned. So yeah, I mean. 950 now. Yeah. So there are other ways to go about this too, which I think makes a ton of sense.

And there are ways to structure the laddering so that you can, you know, you can do it your own way, however you want to do it, but you could do ways that like you can cover the binary prop so that you're still profitable and layer in some of the other layers of the ladder as you go. So that way, you know, you don't lose your hat if, you know, he doesn't hit the highest leg of the ladder per se. So yeah, definitely smart ways to do that. You know how bad you have to be to be running a route on almost like 60% plus of the snaps and have your prop line be at 13 and a half? MVS, I mean, what a joke.

Like that is like some serious, that's some clown shit right there. 13 and a half receiving yards is his line. I don't even know if the Sky Moore even have a line? Yeah, 23.5. I mean, that's – He's something else. They're literally out there almost every play with Patrick Williams, and their line is 20.5.

Here's how I know the right guy is the guy is week one against the Lions. I had Sky Moore, so I'm watching him. I'm like, that guy is never open. You know what I mean? Like, he's literally closed 24-7. He's never open. So like the opposite of 7-11. And it's just like, all right, well, this guy's thinking that's what we saw.

Rice, I remember him from SMU. Like, all right, that kid was nice, you know, so we'll see what happens to him. And just week to week you watch him more and more and you realize like they have to have somebody other than Kelsey, and it's that kid. Like that's that kid. That's the kid.

Yeah. Go ahead. What do you got, Connor? Matt brings up a good point here. Kelsey goes for 200. I mean, without Derwin James, it didn't even matter before. Kelsey was still getting his own with Derwin James. And, yeah, without him, I mean, it's basically be whenever they want it,

but there has to be someone else there. Now, he's a reception guy for me, Kelsey, at this time. I don't know why. Just because the yards, man. Sometimes I guess he breaks them, but receptions for him, he'll catch 10-plus balls, no problem. Plus 330, slop. Like that.

Wait, do they – okay, hold on a second. Let let me get rid of these legs let me see what this is can you go oh they won't let me they won't let me do this i was trying to get kelsey 10 plus receptions uh 155 yards we have just jumped the sharp we used to be serious people And it's just kind of like We're not anymore That's okay In our defense We've been hitting though Go back and watch some of the shows

Jesus Christ Gardner Minshew Not to brag 300 plus last week Yeah you called that last week We had some absolute bangers i think we won units guys are doing it yeah this is uh we'll play around with that but uh all right um well for that one now i think about i just started looking at those lines and uh uh fanatics for the chargers cheese

i know what i'm doing after dinner tonight. All right, some defensive stuff. Tackles, we've got a bunch of tackle plays on the board. We got on the board with the W last night. Foye, Luokan, you know, just absolute king shit. One tackle basically through the first quarter. He needed 10 and a half. The guy had 14 basically by the start of the fourth quarter. He's absolutely unbelievable. The actual leader so far in tackles in the season is Zaire

Franklin. Came up a little short for us last week. Let me go back to the well. It's not out right now, so we can't bet it. It was his first poor showing really this season. He had eight tackles, so that's a bad game for him. He has at least 12 in every other game. He's back home. And this is the best scorekeeper situation on the board this week in Indianapolis. Colts games are averaging 1.274 tackle opportunities, tackles per opportunity on the season. So basically they give out a lot of assists and we've had Franklin play three home games this season. It's at least five assists in all those games. He has 12, 12, and 17 tackles in those three games. So projection at about 11 and a half, about seven and change for solos. We'll probably see him at 10 and a half.

I think 11 and a half would be very, very unusual for them to see. Again, they play the Browns, even last week, in a situation like against the backup quarterback, against a great defense, the Browns ran 70 plays. They lead the league in average plays per game this season, partially because they turned everyone over on three and out. So the offense keeps getting volume of plays here anytime they get any sort of first down.

So even a conservative game projection here, we're looking at 65, 63 plays. I have 63 plays and I'm still coming out with almost 11 and a half tackles for Franklin. So that'll probably be a play. There'll be some more tackles. You want to be in the discord for that. So four for four.com slash plans, use the promo code prop drop. But I want to go a little bit off the board here. I started modeling sacks early in the season. I just haven't been able to keep up with it and just kind of have this very basic thing that I have running here. But like, let's just go off the top with what we know. Sam Howell has been sacked 34 times this season in six games. He has a pressure to sack rate. So let me give you like context, 20% is high. Anything north of 20% is high.rick mahomes is like seven percent sam howell's pressure to sacrate is 33.7 of the time so basically a third of the time he feels pressure

he's going down which is insane daniel jones is second so if daniel jones happens to get cleared here we could go both sides we could go same game parlay with sacks. Because what Chase Young's been doing since he came back is nuts. He's averaging like seven hurries per game, which is insane. So we can go there. But for now, let's just go on the Giants side. Kayvon Thibodeau, four sacks in his past four games, coming off a season high six hurries last week against the bills and now we get sam howell we don't even need a full sack here we need a half a sack he is over 0.25 sacks on draft kings and minus 120 so we just need him to get a half a sack with someone else like there's going to be at least four or five howl sacks. So, you know, if Thibodeau is still going to be doing, you know, five, six hurries a game, he's going to fall into a half a sack in the spot.

So minus 120 here. Absolutely love it. There's some other sack stuff that I like. It's a little juicy. Maybe we'll play some of it here for our subscribers on Discord. But, yeah, pretty low bar here for – we don't even need – like he's not a half sack. He's not.75.

He just needs to share one with someone. Minus 120. one so uh yeah same how it's going down here connor any thoughts on the sacks no i love it i mean sam howell is just a sack machine you know it's almost like justin field he's got a little baker mayfield in him kind of too he kind of just like you know holds the ball for way too long and just like drifts you know like just kind of like sits there and like drifts like he's not like he kind of like sits there and like drifts. Like he's not like – he's not athletic enough. He is athletic, but not like enough to like really get away from people. So I don't know.

I think that it's kind of interesting there. I think that the sack call is great. Yeah, I would love to see Daniel Jones in there too. Slop, any thoughts on the sacks here? Yeah, no. Does Fanatics have sacks? They do. Let's go. No, I kind of want to see something for jones too though because he's he's one of those tall like you remember flacco he reminds me of that but flacco but with wheels you know like it's just

how they look when he moves like one of those have you ever seen like the big poodles like the giant poodles they run they they're clumsy It looks like they're just going to fall down, but they never do. But Jones does. So I don't know. I think Young gets him. I know Jones is fast, but it takes him a second to get going. If you've ever bet his props, you know what I mean. He's like a top end speed.

So I think Young definitely can get him. Young's been awesome since he came back. He's been awesome since he came back like he's been um yeah he's been wild i closed some of the tabs i had open on some of his stuff but like he has 31 pressures he's played you know one in some instances two fewer games than some of the other guys that are up there um and like i think he's only like five or six pressures behind max crosby who's been absolutely killing it this season so what young's been doing since he came back. And then you look at the offensive line for the Giants,

like three starters, maybe four starters out in this game. Like Montez Sweat, it's a disaster. So the only thing is like, you know, if it ends up being, you know, not Daniel Jones, Tyrod does get the ball out pretty quick. He's a little bit more athletic. So like his time to pressure or pressure to sac rates a little bit lower. So that made me a little bit more nervous, but like still with this offensive line, I'm not going to hesitate to hear too.

I'm going to see, can you build a same game parlay with defensive, with the sacks? I think you maybe can. Yeah. I think I was just trying to be able to, that's my favorite part about you slop is that you know, you're smart man of the people. I think you probably can here. We have someone on our Discord saying they just downloaded Fanatics. I feel like we should.

I do, yeah. We have a new show sponsor. Should we just show them the show? I mean, we're going to get thousands of ad dollars for the entire year just on Facebook. They're looking for it before. thousands of ad dollars for the entire year just on face on this drama no that uh that Giants offensive line I'm serious might be the worst I've ever seen I say like this is the best bet I've ever seen like every day and the worst this or worse that I'm serious like worst ever like in

terms of if there's a stat on like how many times a guy doesn't touch the guy that he's supposed to block, have you seen that? Literally, the guy stands up and doesn't even touch the edge rush, but the guy just runs right by him and you're just like, what the hell just happened? At least get a hand on him, but nothing. Sometimes they stand up and fall down. Really, while they don't, they also fall down. They literally stand up, trip over their own feet, while they don't they also fall down like literally

stand up trip over their own feet they're on the ground like this is stupid like it's almost like a hidden cam show you know what i mean like like what's that show that practice poker is like hey now just fall on the ground you know what i mean it's like this is so bad so you'll get a free one with with young does he have numbers out yeah so he's so he's over.75, so you need a full sack. On DraftKings, minus 145. Yeah, I want to see a ladder on him. Give me two. Two sacks.

Because he's getting a free one. I'm telling you, one of those guys is going to stand up and just fall down, or they're just not even going to touch him. That happens every game. I'm telling you i've been taking jones passing over because i've been thinking like they're going to get rolled and you know they're going to have to throw to come back in so i've been watching it's like this is you can't do it anymore because the line is the reason why you can't i mean like i don't think he's good but that line does him no favors whatsoever. It's not good. Same price for over.75 sacks for Max Crosby.

Again, that's minus 145 on DraftKings. Tyson, Bajet. Again, the Bears offensive line is also massively depleted. So, again, that kid got the ball out fairly quick last game. Again, Max max crosby has been such a dog this season so that's another one that again you need a full sack it's a little juicy but man i have a hard time not envisioning max crosby getting at least one he's literally playing every down which is also very rare for defensive ends so like he's he's going to be in

for you know literally every single drop back no matter what uh so that's that's gonna help him quite a bit so yeah those are some of the uh interesting sack looks this week you know again if we get daniel jones in there um what's the other one like it's not dexter dexter lawrence um there's a couple others on the giants like you just spray the board on the giants to be honest um they're like you know a quarter yeah they're like a quarter sack see these guys can get a half a sack and they're like plus odds um dexter lawrence leonard williams dexter dexter lawrence plus 130 for over a quarter sack he doesn't have a sack on the year so that's not encouraging but his he's like sixth in hurries so he is like in there a lot.

So this would be a spot where like Sam Howell is a slump breaker, gets you over the edge and gets him to get a full one for the first time this season. So yeah, if you want to spray the board, Lawrence is plus money. Williams is plus money. And then you got to lay a little bit of juice now on Thibodeau because people are betting it. But otherwise, I mean, those are your three options on the Giants side. And then same thing, you can get some stuff down here if we do get

daniel jones so some sacks in that game um you cannot same game parlay individual players on draft kings it looks like for sacks unfortunately so uh it's like minus 4 000 for the giants to have a sack in this game um minus 3 000 for the commanders so uh you going to have to build some other legs into that one, add some Curtis Samuel, figure out some other stuff. But, yeah, that's a tough one for me. All right, we spent so much time on the defensive side and with our Sunday night football same-day parlays, we didn't leave a lot of meat on the bone.

But let's jump through some of the stuff here. Our boy Benny, shout-out Benny. Third year of the 4-for-4 betting sub, still playing with the profits from his first year sub to have shout out benny uh we appreciate you buddy uh appreciate that a lot uh what else we got here uh let's see ben cap wise what's going on appreciate it uh makes me really want to same game parlay mvs more and rice. Like, look, I mean, the bar is low, you know, super low slop.

What is it? Fanatics have a MVS 50 yards. It looks like that. I was in a one. Yeah. Look, they don't have like the bums. They just like,

I don't have the bums. I mean, I don't really want to call it bums, but like, you know what I'm saying? Dude, they're bums. I mean,

they're, they're scrubs. Like, I mean, you're getting like, yeah. Keenan Allen, Kelsey give you palmer so i mean like they'll give you some of the ancillary guys but like palmer is like a legit two now so but uh everett pacheco like but you're not dude you're not getting oh my god i wasn't looking at the right sex yeah you're not getting any of the other guys no that's probably makes sense though and they make yeah no they make you go pretty up there

with some of these guys so you gotta be careful brian sullivan shutting out mac hollins um it's like over 12 and a half on draft kings uh prop builder 13 and a half hit in five of six pretty low threshold. Definitely it takes one, but, you know, I don't know if you guys have any. I probably didn't formulate any Matt Collins thoughts pre-show. What do you got, Connor? 25 plus on fanatics. There you go.

Or Fandle, whatever. Takes them all somewhere else. I'm not betting a binary yes, no on Matt Collins. I get it, but it's just like it's not my cup of tea. Maybe you can know maybe you can get there but i can't do it he's got great hair though that guy yes like a big hair guy and he's got great hair so there's max cross we shot it yeah he wants his lunch money from the bears yeah he's gonna uh he's gonna he's gonna work a little bit here we already talked about that one. We don't have any left.

There's an interesting one. Deonta Foreman just dropped at 60 rushing yards. I mean, that's a lot. That is a lot. But it's the Raiders, though. You want to go under so bad, don't you? Oh, he does. Yeah.

What happened to Roshan? Is Roshan out? He's out. Okay. Yeah. Connor happened to Roshan? Is Roshan out? He's out. Okay. Yeah. Connor's going to go wonder on that one, I have a feeling. A couple others here. I don't know.

The Raiders stink. Yeah, that's the problem. Bears offensive line is so bad. Ben again, cap wise. Thoughts on Devontae Adams. Squeaky wheel narrative here with Devontae Adams. 68 and a half again, squeaky wheel, but we also have the quarterback situation, which is really dicey because we have a bear secondary.

That's pretty atrocious as well. So does feel square. It does not necessarily feel too square though. That doesn't mean it's not a good play. Any thoughts on davante here slop um strong maybe very very strong maybe maybe the strongest maybes but uh i like in a situation like that game i'd like to have a guy that i think is going to get targeted more than usual at a very low number and that's what that's what mayor sold me as you know like whereas like the top dog of there i don't know like what if what if the raiders can run on them and get out to a lead like you're drawn dead early you know so you know but at the same time when you got somebody over 20 and a half yards like you know no matter what the

game script is you're probably still around so that's why i lean there but no adams would be the receiver i'd go to. So there is that. Yeah, you make a good point. It sounds like a live ad, right? So like on our side in terms of like content, putting out official plays, that's something that's hard for us to do. But yeah, sometimes you just see how the nature of the game

is going in the first quarter, first couple of possessions, and then all of a sudden you can take some shots live and make some money that way for sure. i jumped in kyron williams last week at like 35 and a half rushing yards at halftime like he had like four in the first half and then he like he had 35 after like four carries in the start of the third quarter and went absolutely bananas uh because they barely had the ball and they had like three or four attempts so uh live ads you know if you happen to you know watch with the screens open a little bit like you don't have to be a day trader in arbing situations all day long but like you can find some spots where you can you know pick off some bad live lines a little bit too so um a couple real quick brian wants to know about uh

brian robertson uh over 62 and a half that does not feel like a Connor play. Maybe it's a slot play. Slot. Any thoughts on Brian Robinson? I'm out on running backs. Like just unless this is a whole. Yeah, I'm good. Like we don't need them.

We don't need them, but no offense. I kind of liked it. Honestly, they're tough, man. They're so tough. No,

if you're going to take them though, you got to go under. And that's why I don't like them. I'm not doing that. So it's like, all right, well, I'm out. Just because. Like, you get game scripted out. It's just what you just said, Ryan. Like, that's a definite play it live and play it for a much better number

if you get a favorable situation. You know, so, yeah, it's tough to do that for me pre-flop. All right, guys. That wraps this up. We appreciate it, as always. Slop, odds jam tough to do that for me pre-flop. All right, guys, that wraps this up. We appreciate it as always. Slop, Odds Jam, what do people need? If you want to try it out, best pricing tools I think I've ever used ever for any kind of pricing, but definitely for sports betting.

But yeah, free, two weeks, promo code SLOP. Go get the positive EV tool. Telling you right now, it works. I use it all the time. Promo code SLOP. You bought your house off of the pricing tool there right you found your i might have i might know definitely redoing the kitchen because of it there's that there you go good stuff uh connor you'll be uh firing some unders here in the discord, I'm assuming. You've got a couple extra hours. You're in the West Coast time right now.

I don't know. It's 1 p.m. right now. I don't know. I might go to the beach for a little bit. I'll fire some, you know, on the way there and then, you know, get a crack open at Corona and just, you know, write up a couple more and fire some more plays. I mean, it feels like a good week to be an under.

That's what it feels like. It feels like a good week to just litter the board with unders. I'm talking like 10 unders maybe this week. That's why I hate this week. That's why I have so many X's over the games. I don't even look into there, bro. You're going to galaxy brain yourself into taking some bet that has no chance of winning. Slav, do you take notes on a notepad or do you got a Excel sheet?

Oh, yes. Love it. yeah slop do you take notes on a on like a like a notepad or like you got a cell sheet oh yes love it let's go and i'll literally write down no stupid game double x don't even like go in there like whenever you see on fandom don't even open up that game like you don't there's nothing in there for you yeah the judge judy you're like you open up that game. There's nothing in there for you. Yeah. The Judge Judy, you open up the laptop and you close it right away. Don't go into the Giants commanders. There's nothing good in there for you. Except for Sacks. Sacks and Curtis Samuel.

I think I'm in now. And Curtis Samuel maybe. If I throw in the Sacks, maybe you do the Curtis Samuel. Just because you want something to watch. You know what I mean? True. If they don't get a Sack, you're like, all right, maybe throw it to him. He just because you want something to watch. You know what I mean? If they don't get a sack, you're like, all right, maybe throw it to him. He threw the ball. He had to really carry the sack. The only way that guy can get a catch

is if he's like two yards away from the line scrimmage. So if he does get the ball off, it's probably going to Sam. That's the point. Get it out quick. Low A dot, slot receiver. Perfect. You guys get it. You see it's all coming together. So again, we appreciate you hanging out with us. Before you leave, make sure you hit that subscribe button uh hit us with a thumbs up we appreciate you hanging out with us again our podcast is available as well if you

want to check that out in case you aren't always able to check out the youtube show but take advantage use the promo code um you can use the promo code youtube prop drop same um proper prop drop is going to save you 25 off of an already discounted price on four for four dot com slash plants uh and we will be back to do it all again next week so hope you guys had some fun let's make some money let's light up that sunday night game uh for connor and we'll see y'all next time thanks everybody Bye.