Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 7 PROPS | Top Prop Bets, Predictions & Picks

Episode Date: October 22, 2022

Experts Ryan Noonan, Connor Allen & Pat Mayo share their top Week 7 NFL player prop bets. Tail them as they hand out their top picks, highlight the best betting odds & share their expert predictions.Timestamps: 0:00 Intro5:55 Connor Prop Bet #1 8:04 Pat Prop Bet #1  9:46 Ryan Prop Bet #1 14:27 Connor Prop Bet #2 19:04 Pat Prop Bet #2 22:05 TACKLE PROPS23:30 Ryan Prop Bet #2 24:50 Connor Prop Bet #3 27:54 Pat Prop Bet #329:42 Ryan Prop Bet #333:07 Connor Prop Bet #438:46 Pat Prop Bet #4 48:30 Ryan Prop Bet #4 51:47 Thrive Props54:02 More Tackle Props57:47 Outro Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansMove the Line: Prop Drop is sponsored by Thrive Fantasy. Use Promo Code PROPDROP when signing up & you will receive a 100% instant first deposit match up to $250 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3RQQHRuFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Betting on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4BetsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Pat on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ThePMEVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Prop Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TWC40v4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3pQ2tQ14for4 Player Prop Finder 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wxTcQc4for4 Player Prop Odds Comparison Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3AQ5TbK

Hello and welcome to Move the Live Prop Drop Show presented by Thrive Fantasy, Ryan Noonan. Back to talk about the best way and the most profitable way, 11-1 last week, fellas, to bet on NFL football, and that is Player Props. We're going to be live here, 2 p.m. Eastern, every Friday, giving you our favorite player props on the board and taking your questions. So if you're hanging out on YouTube, subscribe so you don't miss a show. Smash the Like button for us. It goes a long way in helping us. And share the show with your friends.

We talked about it last night on the Game Preview Show. This is not fantasy football. Communal wins are fun. You're not competing with your friends. So share the love. Share the show. It's free. And jump in the chat.

Let us know what your favorite prop is for the week. Any thoughts on a play, feel free to ask us. Let's have an active chat today. We'll get to some questions at the end. Joining me here here as always, in the great luscious state of Florida, with a new backdrop and hopefully some decent internet, Connor Allen.

Yeah, I think I'm operating on arguably the slowest internet I've ever been on. I think it was upload speeds of four megabytes per second. Didn't think that was even possible, but we're here. We're alive, we're in Florida, and we'll try and make it through the show. It looks decent camera-wise, and you sound okay. So not too bad.

We'll see how it goes. You know what your move should be? Listen, I'm not a props professional, but I am a video professional. You need to get some textbooks. I don't know if you're in your college home. Why are you in Florida? For a wedding. Okay, for a wedding.

So find the registry. It's probably really huge. Just prop your laptop up on it. Shoot down. That's always... You always want the camera slightly above eyeline. That's where you want to be with a camera. You can get up here.

Yeah. You want it to be a bit more level, but yeah, that's where you want to be. This is mid-show adjustment right here pat this is great i'm sure sal loves that yeah there you go yeah it doesn't matter how good or bad that you look in real life if you're pointing up you're going to look bad you point down you're going to look a whole lot better and we get to see where the magic happens behind you a little bit there it's not bad yeah it says play more together you have a party going

yeah i thought my wife was trying to send me a message there with the separate beds there you know i walked in but i think we're doing okay it's only been a couple months you should still be on the honeymoon period for sure so uh but you know it looks like it's holding up okay uh obviously here as well joining us in the space every week is the man behind the mayo media network and the pat mayo experience it's the man himself pat mayo how we doing today ah doing very well after last week doing pretty well after thursday night football too juwan johnson what a hero yeah champion i had the juwan johnson play too took us a little bit of a sweat there at the end and then got there on garbage time which is perfect that's that's what we want so well it was nice too because

they opened the hopkins line at like 61 and a half. And I was like, well, that's going to be an over. Let's just pencil that one in. So that was great. Yeah, they peppered him and dominated the target share. Be interested to see if that kind of continues. We're complaining too, because they were just using him like last year,

boundary Jamison Crowder, like a lot of dink and dunk stuff. But if the volume is going to be there, that's going to make up for all of those issues. So I would think so. Yes. All right. Let's well, before we do want to remind you, before we get into all this stuff here, two

episodes every week, just talked about it briefly on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts. Prop drop is going to be on Friday's game preview on Thursday nights, just before Thursday night football, 6 45 PM p.m. Eastern. John Daigle, Connor, and myself, we had Ben Solak from The Ringer on last night. Solak is fantastic. You will become a smarter football fan by listening to that show, talking some more sides and totals and game previews there. Lots of good stuff there. So again, if you're subscribing, you'll check that out as well. And also, I want to tell you about how to get

a $20 betting subscription at 444. It costs a lot more than that, but through our friends over at Thrive Fantasy, you can get it for just 20 bucks. And you get a free t-shirt. Actually, that's going to go until the weekend. So go over to thrivefantasy.com or download the app today.

Use our promo code 444. Deposit $20. Your initial deposit will be matched up to 250. So our promo code four for four deposit, $20. Your initial initial deposit will be matched up to 250. So you can do it for 250. You'll get 500 in your account. You can jump into their tournaments, help them fill those things. Lots of fun ways to bet on props. We'll get to some of that later in the show. You're going to be a new thrive user, new thrive account email, and must use that promo code four for four. We'll reach out to you in details on

how to activate your sub shortly thereafter, but a great way to partner with them. Again, new thrive users only. If you have questions, this is good for new or existing four for four subs. If you reach out to us at support, we'll just go ahead and extend your subscription for another year. And the betting subscription gets you everything on the site. We're doing MBA props right now. Still doing MMA every weekend. We'll be doing college basketball. And again, if you're doing DFS, season long, high stakes, all that stuff too, literally gets you access to everything on the site. So thrivefantasy.com, promo code 444. All right, Connor, while we have you, hopefully the internet continues to hold up. We'll let you get started with, again, no pressure.

11-1 last week, and the one was yours. So, it was. I let the team down. I let the team down. But we're going to get off to a great start here. I like Kenneth Walker to go over his rushing yard total. He's at 67.5 right now. He got 21 of 23 running back carries last week for the Seahawks.

Now he draws the chargers defense that has been getting wrecked on the ground 28th and run defense epa if you look at some of the performances that they've allowed on the ground this season they allowed 66 yards to latavius murray literally a corpse sign off of practice squad uh they allowed 134 yards to nick chubb 134 to damian pierce 100 to james robinson and 74 yards on just eight carries flat over to lair uh kenneth walker so far making fifth and broken tackle rate among running backs with 20 plus carries so far i think this number should be in the low mid low to mid 70s i can understand how some projections just don't get there but i really think that even if he's getting like 12 to 15

carries this is a great bet uh with him ripping off a long one and if game script goes well he could easily be in the 15 20 carry range and he he's, he's gone over a hundred yards here. Yeah. He looked good last week. Elusive running back three in elusive rating last week. He was third in rushing yards over expectation per attempt, a big breakaway runs. I'm in this with you here. I think it's a great look. Obviously we know still a problem with the chargers and stopping the run pat what do you think about kenneth walker here i haven't over i am over very slightly i think my perception would be the same as connor's where i think that he probably does get around 100 yards in this spot but it could be very game flow dictated as well like

seattle's defense sucks so if they fall behind 14 nothing or 10 nothing really early which is not inconceivable against the Chargers even though they're kind of banged up at the moment I feel like it's a lot like the Camara thing from Thursday night that if you had gone over the 64 and a half like that was a lock and then Dalton threw two pick sixes and they didn't run the ball again the rest of the game you're like oh well he was averaging like eight yards a carry they probably should have just kept doing that and that would have worked like that'd be the my only hesitation on this my projection has him at 72 yards on 14 carries and i think that even the yards per carry on that is probably pretty low for going against the charger so i completely get it wouldn't be my number one because it's not my number one what is your number one uh kenny

pickett under rushing carrots. I'm going to win on this every single week. It's now down to 13 and a half. Nothing has been better in the NFL season so far than him coming in in that Jets game and rushing for the two touchdowns because it has set this precedent that he's someone who runs the ball. He doesn't, and he's coming off a concussion. So, doubt he's going to be running too much against the Dolphins

in their super blitz-happy packages. Maybe because of the over-blitzing the cover zero, he sees some daylight goes. You're not going to win it every single week, but you're going to win it close to every single week. So, Kenny Pickett, 13.5 rushing yards under. Now that Cooper Rush is back on the bench, we've got to find someone else to dogpile on every week. It rushing yards under. Now that Cooper rushes back on the bench, we got to find someone else to dog pile on every week.

It's this under. I saw a drop a little bit ago, not too long before we got on the show. And I'm like, Pat's going to have this one on the card this week for sure. So we should get better on stuff like that. That would work. But Connor,

any thoughts there on the matchup with the man? I know we talk about sometimes we lean man or rushing yards over, but to Pat's point, like I think that's a good, like, system bet. But, like, he's not – this dude's not running. And it is definitely inflated off of a really small one-game sample when he first came in there. What are your thoughts?

And to the point about the concussion there, I mean, some quarterbacks are willing to, like, take more hits or just, like, kind of, like, pile through some guys going forward for the next yard. He's going to be running out of bounds. Like, Kyler Murray asked almost where, like, he could get forward another yard or two, but instead just, like, kind of, you know, skirts off out of bounds or like runs backwards the yard to like kind of avoid contact.

So I think that if he does run, you're probably going to be looking at a similar situation to that. So he would truly need like an open field there to get over this moment. And additionally too, especially with Tua in this game, if he takes a hit and doesn't get up right away, he's out of the game. Yep. That's a good look. Well, that's not a good look. Well, that's not a good look.

I'm going to look at my pocketbook. Yeah. I'm going back to the well on something that worked last week as well. I'm growing under 26 and a half passing attempts from Marcus Mariota. I gave out completions on the show last week. Also mentioned that we liked the under on attempts too. They both came in fairly comfortably, even though he like threw for 95% completion percentage.

He's topped this once all season in back in week one. He's coming off of 14 attempts last week against San Francisco. And now they're facing this Bengals team without DJ Reader. And attacking Cincinnati on the ground is a great way to go. Solak broke that down extensively last night. On our show, there's some pretty big splits on Reader in the lineup and out of the lineup as far as like yards per carry. I think it's like 3.8 yards per carry against Cincinnati with him in the lineup. It's been 6.2 the last couple of weeks without him. And we know this is basically what they want to do.

Arthur Smith wants to run. They get creative with their run schemes. And over the past three weeks, the Falcons have a pass rate over expectation of minus 17 and a half percent, which is more than twice the run rate of the Bears, who we think of as a team that just refuses to throw the ball.

So Mariota comfortably for me under 26.5 pass attempts. I can get there on the completions again, but I think this number is just a mistake. It's minus 109 on Caesars, still out there on DraftKings, and bet MGM as well at minus 110. What are your thoughts, Pat? I think Atlanta covers, so I like it. Anytime that Atlanta is going to be in a game and come close to covering, Marriott is just simply not going to pass them all. Even if they get blown out, he barely passes the ball.

So I do like this one. And it's funny what you mentioned about Atlanta and their run below or their pass below expectation. And I kind of hopped on what you did. I made a massive wager on, I think his name is Zach Collins on the Cardinals last night. Whoever their linebacker is. Davian Collins.

Davian Collins, sure, the guy who scored the touchdown. But he was plus 110 to have six and a half or more, or more than six and a half tackles in that game. It's like, well, besides Atlanta, the Saints actually run over expectation way more than any other team in football. Like, this is a perfect recipe for trying to hit these tackle props that you talked about. I don't even know who these guys are. And I'm like, well, I just kind of search who has the most tackles, who is playing for the Cardinals.

Oh, middle linebacker. Well, the Cardinals rush defense is terrible at the defensive line level. Kamara is good. He keeps getting to the second level. This is a perfect match, right? And it was. So I would even be looking who's Cincinnati's linebacker just over for them we got this we got a couple this week we have so we have actually their their starting linebacker uh logan wilson's

probably going to be out so jermaine pratt is going to be their main guy this week they have a second guy depending on if wilson is for sure out um akim davis gathier these guys are actually like tackle machines pratt is a beast he is 9 8 and 14 the last three weeks that's with wilson in the lineup so yeah he's probably one of my favorite two or three bets this week i'm interested to see if they post davis gje at all. He barely plays. He played like one game over 50% of the snaps. He played 69% of the snaps in week three against the Jets. 13 tackles. Again, another team that likes to run the football quite a bit.

So yeah, I think these guys are great looks in the tackle streets. Even if you can go to Vaughn Bell, who's their box safety, who will probably play quite a bit of box snaps. Probably be like five and a half. I think those are all pretty good looks, to be honest, on Cincy's side. So, yeah, I got a few tackle props to share with you guys later at the end. Sweet. Yeah. Now, I think that's the correlation that you want,

the teams that pass below expectation and just load up on linebackers or strong safeties. You've started a movement, Noonan. I mean, this is like we tweeted out a contest, you know, for – not a contest. It was like, you know, share a good bet that you made with 4 for 4, tag us and we'll send you a shirt or whatever. I'm not getting you – like at least 75% of the people were tweeting out

tackle prop wins and not like player prop wins, tagging you in it. And I was like, wow, this is – I mean, times are changing here. This is great. Linebackers are players too. I was going to say how how much feedback did you get from being on my golf show this week and then giving out the tackle prop that people had we hit alex singleton the guy eight and a half he had 21. he had he had nine with like six minutes left in the second quarter this is insane so yeah i mean that was that in itself you get the Mayo golf audience uh tailing you on tackle props it's a pretty good spot to be in so it worked out pretty well we're gonna continue you're seven and one last week in the tackle streets and yeah we're gonna find the

edge and we're gonna we're gonna press so I caught her back to you for uh bet number two yeah bet number two for me is another over I like David and Joku over 36 and a half receiving yards i mean i would play up to 40 here with better juice if you don't want to lay anything like a minus 120 but after week one he's been way more involved has seen five or more targets in every game 20 percent target share since week one uh in those in the last four weeks 58 88 73 and 89 receiving yards in those four games we have 59 receiving yards projected which is a little bit bullish but still i think that this should this line should be at least in the low 40s here at a minimum also i like the chances of the ravens scoring a lot of points in this game and the browns may be forcing them to pass a little bit more so i think that with an elevated game state here like in joku's ceiling

could be raised even more and 36 and a half just felt a little bit too low for me as well especially when considering our projections yeah i'm in this game and i'll get to that with one of mine later so i don't hate this at all pat do you have any thoughts on njoko who started to really emerge as basically the number two pass catcher here well i i'm trying to fill it out right now it's funny that you say that you're in this game i had planned on being in this game but maybe i should give that one up from the brown side as well, which is kind of funny to think about. Per my numbers, the single best prop of the week is Jacoby percent over 18 and a half completions.

So if we could throw together a same gamer here, cause I love Cooper over everything too. I actually just like the Browns in this game by and large. Like the one I was going to mention off the top is Chubb. His over under rushing is 71 and a half that's so low this is your derrick henry thing from a couple weeks ago in that matchup against the colts right where it just yeah it's matchup driven and it's like 20 yards off of what his market's been all season yeah my projections have like i've just i mean projections aren't

always going to be right and but the one good thing that projections do it gets out your bias it's not like like the ravens have a bottom 10 rush defense it's just they're usually winning early in games so teams don't normally run a lot against them that tends to be the issue but i haven't projected 94 rushing yards yeah yeah we got a good same game parley here too because i i like uh i like amari cooper too we could put that in so let's try this out here passing props will go i think brissette goes over 219 i think he goes over 18 and a half completions over 30 and a half like that's the one drawback to this if these things hit the chubb thing probably comes as an under right yeah but the chubb thing too the way he plays like you can just get that one, right? He can just grind out two, three at a time and then just break that one and you're still probably live.

So we can go Brissette over passing, Brissette over completions, Brissette over attempts, Amari Cooper over 56.5 yards, Njoku over 37.5, and that gets us up to, why isn't this letting me play the same game parlay? Because there we go. Independently, I like all five of those props and I'll click on same game parlay and see what it gives me. What do you think

this comes out to? Do you think it's better than 10 to 1 or no? I think so, probably. So over we can get alternate passing yards on Jacoby Brissett. Probably don't want to do that right yeah i wouldn't get too wild with with alton on brissette well i wish they'd offer lamar's rushing yards because that would be a nice little addition sprinkled in here too so do we have 30 plus or 35 plus passing attempts what do i project to that i have him at

where are you at jacoby brissett not high actually pretty high he's inside the top 10 of scorers this week on DraftKings too for me I am exactly at 35 attempts so I'll go over 30 on that it doesn't seem like we're going to get completions as a part of this uh receiving props Murray Cooper I mean I like him to go for over the 59 and a half. That's fun. And then in Joku, you had 39, right, Connor? Yeah, I did 36, but I think up to 40 is fine. So 39 is good.

Yeah, 39 and a half will go over that. Pays plus money too. I mean, it's not that good. You go those four together, it's plus 475. I feel like they're kind of taking a dump on you with that one. Yeah. It's funny how those same game parlays work, but yeah, you can get the, you know, you wait a little bit, you add the over on Lamar rushing,

which would probably be like high fifties. He's gone for over 58 in five of six games against this team. I think like three games over 90 just kind of has their number. And if I don't know, the backfield is kind of a mess, you know, I don't know what's going on with Andrews or not, but yeah, think lamar rushing is a pretty good look too so i wouldn't mind wouldn't mind sprinkling that in um connor that was number two for you pat how about number two for you i'm gonna go with the quarterback and i'm gonna take another under on this one dac prescott under 257 and a half passing yards in his first game back against the Lions.

But it's against the Lions. They don't play defense. That's all fair. I completely understand that part of it. Here's the thing. Unless they completely change their playbook, which they shouldn't, because their offensive game plan with Cooper Rush is what they should have been doing with Dak the whole time. Dak is just more aggressive.

He takes more chances. He doesn't need to do that. He's just better than Cooper Rush. So all these incompletions and stalled drives that you've seen the past four weeks from Cooper Rush, you know, those are extended drives with Dak Prescott. He doesn't need to be thrown 80 yards downfield to Michael Gallagher. Start Dalton Schultz over the middle. You'll be fine. They're going to want to run in this game. They're going to successfully run in this game. I just don't need to see. It works one of two ways.

I think game plan wise that the under comes through pretty well. I haven't projected it 217 yards. So it's 40 yards below what his over under is set at at the moment. Plus his thumb still might be a problem. Remember, remember what happened with Russell Wilson in this last year? It's like Russ is cooking. Russ is cooking.

Oh, he like broke his thumb or something. It's like, Oh, he's coming back. Oh, against the Packers. He's going to annihilate him. He threw for like 30 yards.

Yeah. The range of outcomes here are, I think, pretty vast, but I don't think that there's a massive ceiling here either, even in this mismatch, because I think your point is correct. They'll be able to run and they don't want to, they don't have to push him. We're usually pretty bullish on passing yard overs just from our projections. But we're kind of right on the number on Dak.

So, yeah, I don't hate that look at all. I do think there's going to be a lot of running back carries here. Connor, what do you think about Dak? What do you guys think about attempts instead or completions? Because I feel like both of those would be great looks too. Because the Lions defense is really bad, as you mentioned. But I don't know. Do you find a good attempts prop under like i feel like they're not just gonna like let him out let him loose and like sling it right away like you guys mentioned

uh i haven't i haven't looked at that number though i think if you get like 34 or 35 i mean that seems like it'd be pretty high i don't know what you're not you guys have your numbers at though let's see pass attempts for mr dac prescott is they don't have oh no there is 34 34 and a half right on the number and that puts me at where the hell is that i gotta scroll down to find dac let's see him here i am at 29 attempts yeah we have a 33 I mean so even if you split the difference it's still way under yeah yeah I think all those are good unders to be honest you could probably just you know spray the board it looks like that's taking some action on DraftKings uh it's minus 165 to the under 34 and a half uh MGM is minus 125 on 34 and a half so definitely a easier pill to swallow there i like that i i do think there's

going to be a lot of running back carries here and um we'll do the tackle props in in here because there's a nice little one here deshaun elliott for the lions um box safety tracy walker's their safety he's been out the last two games and elliot's taken on this role and has been an absolute monster two games in the new role as a box safety 100 of the snaps plays about 40 in the box 12 tackles and 11 tackles no chance he's hung at like any more than like seven and a half it's just kind of like a high end for a safety unless you're uh you know unless you're uh you know unless you're uh you know a couple outliers here derwin james is like a guy that gets hung pretty high for a

safety so yeah deshaun elliott one of my other favorites and kind of correlates well here you can't unfortunately do same game parlays with tackle props but um you know kind of you know building kind of the game state that we think here under on attempts a lot of carries a lot of tackles so well you can't really correlate much here, but like on prize picks, you can go Dak under the passing attempts at 34 and then Zeke over 15 and a half rushing attempts. Prize picks will let you, they'll throw in,

nothing's out there now. There's literally no tackle props in the market right now. No, but they appear on like Sunday morning. They do. Yeah, I put together a tackle-only prize picks play in our Discord last week that came through for us. So yeah, we wait until Sunday and then we'll attack. We'll take whatever they give us.

So you can correlate that there. My next one, prop number two for me. We'll just do this one now. I'm going to go with Marty Cooper because we were just talking about this. I played it at 55 and a half. I think it's crawled up 56, 57. I think it's still in play. He's got 10 or more targets in four of the last five, 12 last week against the Pats. Pats play a lot of man. He only caught four for 44, but Brissette is significantly worse against man

on the season than he is against zone about 10 success rate difference there um cooper has seen 28 target share this season it's about seven percent higher than his best mark ever so getting as much volume more volume than he ever has uh from a yards per route run standpoint it's been a little bit disappointing but like from an expected standpoint that's just tied to his quarterback efficiency he's like top three percent on the year so i think the volume is going to help alleviate some of the efficiency concerns i think pat is encouraging me to here with his thoughts around jacoby brissett being more efficient so i think going yards over is probably the better look than the reception line just because we take out a little bit of that volatility it's got like a 12.3 a dot so So we can break it on a couple of big plays here,

like this game environment in general. So yeah, I'm already over 55 and a half. I would play it comfortably, probably below 60. I'm comfortable going over there. So kind of another addition and a little bit more, I think, detail to why you'd want to add that to your same game parlay. So no need to add to any of that.

I think we've already kind of talked about it. Connor, come back to you with prop number three. Yeah, for sure. Also, I do want to add that I'm very jealous of your tackle props that you get to just like speculate on what the number will be at, almost like we used to with props, like regular ones. And they would always be where we guessed and it would be easy overs and easy unders. And now the market is just sharpening up a little bit.

But I'm not sure I can hop in the tackle prop streets yet, but maybe someday I'll follow your lead. My third one here, one that I really like, David Montgomery under 55.5 rushing yards on Monday Night Football. Pats have limited two of the best rushing teams in football in the last two weeks. Browns and Lions averaged just 4.05 yards per carry. Now Patriots at home, eight-point favorites. Matt Aberflus also talked about how the Bears will be riding the hot hand going forward as Khalil Herbert looked really good last week. So he may be even more involved. I expect this game just to be kind of a slaughter, to be honest. I expect Bill Belichick to really focus on what the Bears do best, which is essentially run the ball and, you know, force fields to throw and confuse them as much as possible.

And if the game, say, gets out of hand, I mean, the Bears are going to have to throw. And they have been throwing a little bit more than they were early on in the season. So I do think that volume can be a concern here. Efficiency can be a concern. We have less than 50 rushing yards projected. So I think this is a solid look here. And I think the floor on Montgomery is like super, super low if Khalil Herbert outplays him in the first quarter.

And the hot hand thing, I think, is interesting. Pat, what are your thoughts on T-Mont? I don't buy it. I do like the under, but I don't buy this hot hand approach whatsoever. They're going gonna run two drives with montgomery one drive with herbert they're just gonna go back to what they did in week one because it just hasn't been working for them it's just so weird to see as good as herbert looked while montgomery was out even before montgomery had been out with the injury to have

david montgomery come back and then all of a sudden he's like the only guy playing in the backfield it just it made absolutely no sense to me. It was weird. Yeah. Cause we thought like Herbert had earned a bigger share. And he said, even in kind of mixing in, he looked good. And then, you know, you feel like you give him more opportunities to perform and then you come back and it's just, just Montgomery.

We just want to ride him out. So I think it's a good look on it. Yeah. No, I think the great part about the handicap is that like, even if it is two in one, you know, I think that there's still a lot of ways that Montgomery gets there. And so you know like if it's if it's not two and one it's like 50 50 like montgomery is like almost surely getting there and if it's two and one i still think there's a good chance that he gets there yeah uh pat how about you number three hi sorry i was just

looking at jd mckissick under rushing yards but it's it's right on the periphery it's 10 and a half and since brian robinson has been active he has two carries in two games so you got to watch every the problem is with the 10 and a half i wish there was a pass or rushing attempts prop for him is that the only time he runs the ball or like third and 27 draws which he can just get 13 yards on no one cares so dumb yeah yeah so that that's a problem with that one i am going to go i'm going to go with that nick chubb prop i mean i like the percent over completions i like everything in that game but hell that's like two good runs for nick chubb and he's been the league's best rusher so

far the patriots took him out it happens the patriots are probably the best scheme team in all of football but it's it has to be a blind bat man the guy's averaging almost around 100 yards a game it's 30 below that and as I mentioned the Ravens are a bottom 10 rush defense and if you get him to 15 carries in this game he is going to obliterate this number and I would just find it hard to believe that he wouldn't get there so 71 and a half over rushing yards for me yeah like i said i mean i think it's such a good process just like the henry thing but the henry thing was actually you could make the case that that was a difficult matchup at the time came in and the colts were leading the league in basically

any run defensive metric sure sure but what can you really glean from a three game sample or two game sample at the time you really can't like for sure like that that's actually a good time to try to go after some of the quote-unquote good units in football because the sample is just complete variance yeah and even the point here is that this isn't even the case for the ravens they're not even a team that we should be shying away from running back carries or yards from and chubbs just kind of a dude that yeah maybe might not get there from just sheer volume, but he could just pop one. You could turn this on in two minutes into the game, and Chubb just ran down the sideline for 60, and you're good.

You just need him to not get hurt in the first half, and you're probably fine. It might be low efficiency the rest of the way, but just a dude that can do that. So, yeah. There are a few running backs who are like that. I would put Derrick Henry as a part of that. nick chubb is a part of that saquon obviously is a part of that and now i know these like they're the very elite guys you know who i am

gonna throw into that he doesn't get the volume to really necessitate it but his number is way lower travis etn is like that like one cut gone pierce one cut gone yeah and that's my next one is Damian Pierce uh Damian Pierce over uh 69 and a half rushing yards looks like no looks like we're back uh so I've hit it at 66 and a half I saw it fly out to 69 and a half 67 and a half absolute smash still good I had it I had it written down on my short list at 69 and a half so I'm glad to hear it's lower. Yeah, we'll take it. I mean, he is that guy. We've seen a shift.

We had that wonky week one where we had nothing but good coach speak and even like not using him in preseason games with Damian Pierce, and then they come out week one and it's Rex Burkett. No idea what's going on. Since then, 79%, 80%, 100%, and 81% of the carries the past four games. The offensive line has improved. They're 12th in adjusted line yards on the season. The Raiders' run D is in the middle of the pack.

They're 19th in success rate. Again, not a team that we need to shy away from. Damian Pierce forced 17 missed tackles the last time we saw him against Jacksonville. That is the most ever charted in a single game by pff since they've been doing this this guy just has a little bit of juice and he can get this done in a big big way i was a blind over so 70 for me was kind of like i would hope to get him in the 60s and yeah we're still in that range and i'm with pat here i think this is guy a guy that is kind of putting himself in that from a big play perspective and he's just staying on the field more too.

Like they want, they talked about it, how, you know, this isn't necessarily for the prop, but like they talked about how they were getting really clear to read when they were bringing in Rex Burkhead for passing game work. So they wanted to keep Pierce in. So we've actually seen his like targets per outrun and targets run increase too. So I think just kind of overall totally yards,

even for Pierce is probably a good look. He's just going to continue to come off the field you know fewer and fewer snaps each week so uh over 67 and a half i think is a great play on damian pierce uh connor what do you think here uh i mean what do you think about like the game script like concerns at all do you think that matters or no well i mean what's the game script concern that the raiders cover the spread in the fourth quarter because the texans have been really good through three quarters in almost every game this season they have been but i mean the the spread is you know i mean telling us that they should win that they could win by more than touchdown i mean that's that's fair like i think

that it that that's like the same kind of possibility as like the seahawks chargers maybe the charge is more explosive than the raiders but uh i mean that would be my only concern with pierce uh other than that i think that it's solid yeah that's fair they actually have switched a little bit too Davis Mills has been so bad they've shifted from like a pretty surprisingly heavy pass rate team to running a little bit more now I think because they trust Pierce so we've seen that shift there as well they ran really and again the game script worked against Jacksonville last time out that was their highest you know run rate over expectation on the season. So yeah, I don't know.

I'm kind of with Pat. I think that they hang around. I think the Raiders probably hanging on them. But at the same time, I think the Texans kind of are alive to stick around for a little bit. So Pierce is just so good. It's the breaking tackles thing. We know that there's a lot of noise in running back data and stats like broken tackle rate is pretty sticky and i think it is a great indicator of skill and this dude is doing it at

a pretty elite rate so i understand those concerns for sure but i like this number quite a bit so good with it uh connor take us home number four yeah my last one it's it's not something that's out yet but i think this is probably one of my strongest plays. Whenever it comes out, I don't really even care the number. Zach Wilson under pass attempts. I mean, 25 and a half, 24 and a half, 23. I don't know. He's probably going to throw the ball like 20 or fewer times here against the Broncos.

Right now they are, you know, the spread's close to even. I don't anticipate Russell Wilson playing. Even if he does play, the offense has been so bad. It doesn't matter. The Jets defense has been playing a lot better as of late. I don't anticipate Russell Wilson playing. Even if he does play, the offense has been so bad. It doesn't matter. The Jets' defense has been playing a lot better as of late. I don't anticipate the Broncos getting out to any kind of lead here. The Jets have been running it way, way more since Zach Wilson came back. They obviously were first in pass rate with Joe Flacco,

14th in PR pass rate over expectation. That's dropped significantly with Zach Wilson here. I mean, they've gone to a completely run-first team. We faded Elijah Moore last week, which, you know, sent him to his grave, essentially, on the receptions. And now I'm not sure that – I think volume unders on receivers, too, is great, like on under receptions on – I know Pat mentioned it last week on one of the other guys, Garrett Wilson, and that would have gotten there.

I mean, literally every prop under on a passing game for the Jets would have gotten there. And the Broncos' pass defense is really, really strong. I mean, Pat Sertan obviously just notably locked down Mike Williams, has allowed fewer than 67 yards in every single game so far in coverage. I don't know if he really shadows anyone in this game. I mean, is anyone really worth shadowing? I guess Garrett Wilson.

But, I mean, I just think that there's so many great spots here just to play some unders. They're probably just going to run with Brees Hall and maybe have some decent success. So I think that's probably going to probably their game plan here it's funny because i agree with you but i looked at my numbers it loves zach wilson overs loves them like not even close like i i think is what what what is his passing prop this week like 170 or something like that i don't think anything's out yet i hadn't seen anything that's why i didn't put it to a number but um

let's see prize picks might actually have yeah 175 and a half passing yards for zach wilson is what they're posting is their prop i have a 241 which i don't believe but like that's crazy i kind of thought i thought it would be like 190 um man 170 is tough but yeah i like the attempts that's why i like attempts and completions more than the yards. Cause you also just take out the variance of a spike play too. We're at two 21 for yards. We're at 34 and a half for attempts, which feels high. Cause I I'm, I'm with you there, Connor.

I got 37 and a half. Wow. Okay. Oh man. I was going to say, do you think it changes with Russ at all for you, Pat? I believe his name is Mr. Unlimited, if you didn't know. I think he's going to play. I love Russ.

Russ is great. He brings me so much joy. Yeah. I don't know. I think it's a good – it's on my list for sure. That and Brees Hall rushing attempts over because we've seen him kind of emerge there as the main guy. We've seen it now since Wilson's been under center. Jets are 25th in pass rate over expectation, negative 7%. And we've actually seen teams skew to the run against Denver to buy about 3% in a

typical matchup versus trying to throw on them. So I think there's a lot of reasons here why I think it's probably a good play. So I'm interested to see where the attempts – I do think that the attempts is probably where I would go over the yards. Yeah, watch, make a note. I think that also in that same game, I think that there could be an opportunity with some Melvin unders or Latavius overs again, just based on what Nathaniel Hackett said. He kind of came out and was like,

Oh, Melvin's our starter this week. You know, we, we talked some things out. I mean, I'm not buying that. Like,

I mean, sure. He's going to start the game, but like even Nathaniel Hackett the next day, walked it back and was like, Oh, well he's going to start, but we'll see how it shakes out.

You know, we want to get the other guys going too, because we have three guys that we want to give the ball to. That was the next switch. That quote did not get as much publicity. But, like, he's just, like, he's a coward. He doesn't care about this stuff. He's just going to walk it back and probably play whoever's playing best.

Like he did. Latavius was playing fine. I mean, he looked good at some times. So I think that there will be some good times for more Latavius overs. I mean, we're not going to get 12.5 like we got last week. But, you know, maybe 30s. We'll see. And then maybe some other numbers we'll see yeah um big big if true we had uh andy in the chat telling us that uh we

were in charge of the elijah moore trade request he actually referenced four for four in the prop drop show and yeah while requesting his trade so we're gonna watch out for that you know out here moving markets in and in requesting trades. So, uh, Pat, how about you? Number four, or this is my favorite part. Cause you typically have like three or four that you want to like ballpark and throw out of this.

So, so, so here are the ones, I mean, you took Pierce. So I'll scratch that one off. I, I really liked the overall, that one as well. I had Gino Smith under 18 and a half rushing yards, Dalton Schultz over 31 and a half receiving yards, which seemed really low for the expectation that we had of him coming into the year where he would essentially be even with Gallup back the number two receiving option in this offense where I don't know what this prop was week one, but I assume it was like 51 and a half something like that he seems to be completely healthy dac is back bad defense like i know i don't love the over yardage but that's not a lot of yards to get over so i don't mind that there was a k dot and over two and a half receptions but i think that's juiced up to like minus 185 so i'm not taking that uh rashad white again he got there by by a hair by a half yard on the yardage by two receptions. That was nice.

But he's 16 and a half in terms of the receiving game this week. I like the overall map. The one I'm going to go with, because I've just had a lot of success with these quarterback rushing unders. Burrow's line's inflated right now. It's 12 and a half. And it goes one of two ways. He's either nowhere near this or he's way over this.

And when you go and take a look at what he's done in terms of the rushing game, I think he's three of six so far in going on this number. So a complete 50 50, but the teams that he's done it against, it is Pittsburgh weeks one and week two. So Dallas and Pittsburgh, and he did it last week against the saints who found their pass rush all of

a sudden, even against Arizona, it actually turned out to be to their detriment against Arizona which I think is a really interesting schematic thing against Kyler Murray is that every time that they actually got a lot of pressure it was good news for Arizona because then Kyler just rolled out and ran away from everyone for first downs like you'd be better off rushing two against Kyler and be like hey man try to beat us dare you and he can't do. But once you start getting him moving, he becomes super dangerous all of a sudden. So I thought that was somewhat interesting.

You could almost play like the old, like we had a Russian quarterback in high school who was by far our best player. It was just like, you know, they were going to rush one and just put two guys on the edges to make sure that he couldn't get outside the tackle box. That's almost what you should do against Kyler Murray in a weird way. But the Saints kind of did last night yeah eventually but at first like all those first downs they converted in the first half all rushing and just they were getting pressure up the a gap and then boom kyler gets forced to the outside and then they can't contain them anymore so with

burrow pass rush pass rush two of the best teams this is when tj watt was still playing too that they just got him off the spot not the bangles offensive line is any good but these are like super good pass rushes and the saints really ratcheted it up last week we saw it again last night when they wanted to it seems like their pass rush is back to atlanta worst pass rush in football not even close so if burrow isn't pressured you never like there's no design to Burrow rushes. It's a lot like the picket thing. Like if daylight is there, he will take it. But here's the thing.

There's just going to be so much clutter in front of him because Atlanta's defensive line sucks so much. He ain't running under 12 and a half. Like it. We're right there. We're at 12. But I think you make a great point. You want the quarterback to have to be flushed out.

He's not gonna be flushed out. Like they had, I think last year had the lowest pressure rate in the league in the last, over the last decade. They ran back basically the same defensive line, tried to draft a couple of kids in like the third and fourth round. Those guys aren't really doing anything. And we had like one game early in the season. I think it was a saints game.

And we're like, what's going on with this pass rush. And now they've regressed right back to where we thought they would be. So yeah, it's well, it's twofold at the same time. Like defense is actually better this year like it's not like last year they were the worst defense in football by a pretty large margin and a lot of that had to do with their only good player being aj tayrell who's like not good this year which is

really strange but they had no pass rush and as i mentioned they have no pass rush this year in adjusted sack rate this season they they're 4.1%, which is actually right next to Cincinnati, the two worst teams in football at getting to the quarterback. Then you have Jacksonville, Carolina, and Detroit. But that's still improved from last year. And they were the 32nd ranked defense last year. They're like 23rd this year.

So just it's hard to be the worst defense two years in a row. Just like it's hard to be the best defense two years in a row. Just like it's hard to be the best defense two years in a row. Defense is just too variant driven like that. Like, could you be the best offense? Yeah. You keep the same guys. See no reason not to.

And if you didn't change your personnel on offense and you were the worst, chances are you're going to be the worst. Again, defense doesn't really work like that. So they've gotten opportune pressures. Like I remember very vividly in the Seattle game when Gino was coming back down to beat them at the end, what did they do?

Boom, drop them for 17 yards. They got to Brady. They sacked Brady. Didn't count, but they got to him and it should have counted. So they've just been a very opportunistic defense in that sense. But overall,

like you mentioned, the worst adjusted sack rate in all of football, they generate no pressure, historically bad. You got to go to the end. Yeah. Like you mentioned, the worst adjusted sack rate in all of football. They generate no pressure. Historically bad. You've got to go to the under. Yeah. Like, look, sound reasoning.

Connor, anything to add here on Burrow-Unders? No, I like the handicap. And just one small thing, I think on the game there, I think that the Falcons are able to kind of like suck the life out of some of this game here with the running attack because, you know, Bengals without D.J. Reeder, we talked about on the show last week, uh, have, you know,

been below average and run defense, uh, since they lost CJ reader. And I expect the Falcons to be able to have at least some success running the ball, kind of like, you know, soak up some play volume there.

So probably see, you know, just less overall play volume in this one. Well, what's the better bet guys is Atlanta plus six and a half, or is it Atlanta money line? Hmm. I'll probably take the six and a half i'll probably do but i'll probably do an 80 20 split between my money yeah yeah probably right yeah i just think they can hang on the money line yeah yeah they can hang but i don't know that

i i think that they go in there and win i don't know that they have that but they're feisty well they're feisty and connor hits it like they just suck the air out't know that they have that but they're feisty well they're feisty and connor hits it like they just suck the air out of the game they have two full backs and then random three running backs all with really different skill sets and you have the mariotta rushing option as well that shortens the game time fewer razor fewer play you were ready to run fewer plays are run in the game and points just become so much more valuable in a game like that and if all of a sudden zach taylor goes back to being the moron he was the first five weeks where every first down is

run up the middle with joe mixon for negative one yard shortens the game even more i know that was the thing going into last night when we met with solak i kind of was leaning bangles the first game we talked about because i was excited i'm like well they went on basically every snap other than like a kneel down they went shotgun yeah and it was like i worked what are they gonna like this kind of takes them out of doing some things that are problematic for them and then solak just you know buried it and poked a hole through everything and just was you know all in on the on the falcons as well so it's like all right well i can get there it makes a little bit more sense to me i'm definitely not taking the Bengals after that.

So yeah, good show worth listening to. Well, I do think as well that part of the reason that they went out of shotguns because all of a sudden the Saints got guys back. They had no corners to deal with. So you could pass all over them. They really had to be wary of the pass rush. And how good at New Orleans generally

is it stopping the run? Outside of a few big plays on Thursday night, that's usually their calling card on the defensive side of the ball. So you put yourself in a shotgun, just commit to not running and pass all over them with a depleted secondary. I mean, I think the Saints have given up 30 points and I can average at 30 points

in the past six games. Like their defense sucks. Sucks. Yeah, it's been rough. No Marcus Davenport, no Marcus Lattimore. It's not great. Last three games, they've been like bottom five in EPA, DVOA, like a bunch of stuff. Literally the last three weeks, they've been really bad.

I'm going to go through a few that I'm waiting for and looking at as well before I give you my last one. Although, real quick, I want to mention I really like the look you had with Dalton Schultz. That popped at like 29 and a half. I went to bet it. It was gone. And then it wasn't back up.

So now it's back up at 31 and a half. That's not much different. Yeah, I love the way you handicapped that. And then also Detroit has been just terrible over the middle, 28th and past the DVOA against tight ends. I think it's a really sound look there. What else are we looking at? You mentioned the Wilson unders for the Jets. Breeze Hall carries, I think, is a really sound look there. What else are we looking at? You mentioned the Wilson unders for the Jets.

Breeze Holt carries, I think, is probably a good look. I mentioned Lamar rushing. I think that's going to be a play for me, depending if that's probably in the high 50s or so, is something I'm definitely interested in. I want to see if the Giants hang anything with Juan Dale. I want to watch that carefully because he didn't play a lot. 35% of the routes last week.

I think that probably increases here. I'm really considering unders on Trevor Lawrence, probably unders on completions. He has a really bad against the Blitz. And I think it was Warren Sharper's talking about how a lot of teams nowadays are mixing coverage behind the Blitz. Basically it used to be almost exclusively. You'd see teams play man behind blitz, even sometimes cover zero. And when Martindale does that a ton more, so we're seeing a lot of teams play zone and there's pretty drastic splits for Lawrence when

teams play man behind the zone, or I'm sorry, man behind the blitz or a zone behind the blitz and the giants play man. And Lawrence is like 3.5 yards per attempt in those scenarios. I think he really struggles here. I think the giants are very feisty. I know this is a much talked about game with his five and one team is a three point dog against two and four team on the road here. I think the giants are very feisty here and I think that's going to play itself out in the prop market through lawrence so i'm going to continue to look a little bit more into that i i have one comment about the giants defense it's bad and no one seems to realize that and if their defensive coordinators wasn't name wasn't wink martindale no one would think that they were good they're not good they don't have a lot of talent though they are getting leonard williams back they are getting kv on uh thibodeau back so like like

they're they're 30th in rushing defense they're 20th and past defense there's almost nothing that they are good at they have saquon saquon's good yeah it keeps the ball away yeah when you look at like anything from like a success rate epa replay they just kind of are like you talked about with atlanta but even a little bit better when you're opportunistic um you know he knows how he's dialing up things in the right in the right way and we've seen kind of even last week in a very like up paced up tempo game where they had to play for behind even against the colts we saw a negative pass rate over expectation for Lawrence. Like, I think they're in certain situations, maybe trying to hide him a little bit, or at least not

like turning it over for him to go loose. So like I said, I want to dig into it a little bit, but I'm leaning under on some Lawrence stuff. The last one I'm going to play is kind of in the same vein. It is a under 32 and a half passing attempts for Taylor Heineke. This is a minus one 20 on MGM. I think I saw it move earlier to 31 and a half still in this range. I think is, is fine. Packers are mostly a run funnel defense right now. Overall play volume in this game, I think is going to be a concern. The Packers have, those games have produced the league's fewest combined plays, according to Pat Thorman and his Pace and Snaps article. 117 per game is comfortably the last in the league. In the last season, we saw this with Heineke. He was the quarterback, as we know. Weeks 11 through 18, they shifted to a very, very run-centric game plan. They ranked 25th in

pass rate expectation from weeks 11 to weeks 18 with Heineke there. So I don't think there's going to be a ton of play volume. I think if you kind of look and project this with Carson Wentz stats, which probably feeds a lot of projections here, this might not necessarily pop, but I think they are going to try to run the football. I think this is how you attack Green Bay. So Heineke under 32 and a half attempts, I think probably under on completions, I think it's like 21 attack Green Bay. So Heineken under 32 and a half attempts, I think probably under on completions, I think it's like 21 and a half. I mean, it's probably a viable look too,

but what do you think here, Pat? I mean, just looking at the situation, neutral stats right now, and even if it's within six points, these are two of the slowest teams in football. So I think that makes a ton of sense. And a lot of that can be influenced by rushing the ball so many times

that that would lead towards that under, you know what game i actually kind of like to be an over and i i don't know if people are on the same page as me as the cleveland baltimore game yeah sound that way based on what you were saying yeah i don't hate that at all um what was the one that uh oh i think actually sharp clark played for us he played this game over this washington green bay game and i don't know why i don't know why yeah like i could see denver jets having more points in this game solely because like the jets and broncos defense might score two touchdowns apiece yeah the packers might just be really bad and but here's the here's the thing we know that the packers could be really bad we know the commanders are really bad correct correct yeah uh connor what are your thoughts on on heineke i know

this is this feels like it's in your lane uh but i don't know if you jumped in no i i like it um i guess my concern with the attempts is like it just depends on how the game ends up like game script but like the spread of this is close like i don't think it's really all that like concerning that that the packers they're like look go out to a big lead because they're gonna go run heavy they should have success on the ground because the packers run defense is really bad and i think that matters you know like if they're just gonna be you know running into a brick wall on first down i mean they have to throw like two or three downs like if they have success in the ground first down it actually i think tends to less passing and more like a closer game in general so yeah i like it i think it's a

good play i should probably tell it in the discord it's something that you know i think i was uh you know on a plane this morning when you played it and i hadn't had too much time to look it over you're trying to find a room that was quiet and had wi-fi better than whatever 4.8 megabytes per second i mean i sent you a picture. I've never seen that. We're still rolling though. We're about an hour in. You've been fine. No problem there. That

wraps it for the props. I'll do some tackles here, but let's talk about Thrive real quick. If we didn't hear at the top, Thrive Fantasy, download the app. Use promo code 444. You can use that promo code and you'll get a free betting sub at 444. Again, covering all major sports. The betting sub gets you access to everything on the site.

You definitely want to check that out. Thrive has a prop lobby where you can build, you know, similar to some other players out there in the pick'em space. But they also have a prop GPP game that is paying 20k to first uh this week there are lots plenty of seats still available connor have you gone through the thrive lobby and uh looked at some plays that you like this week yeah i've looked at a couple here a few that i really like uh dj moore under half touchdown uh i mean that's it's not even but it's a little bit closer than it should be naji harris under one and a half touchdowns.

You're only getting 50 points, but I don't think that that's – I don't think that's in danger at all here. Then there was one more that I really, really liked. I just – I'm scrolling through and don't remember exactly where it was. Oh, CeeDee Lamb, six and a half receptions. I mean, that's rich. Like, we don't expect Dallas to pass the ball a ton. Like, of course, the upside's there, and maybe in future weeks,

but I don't know. That's a lot of catches, like, right off the bat here. Yeah, I think that's high. The one that's way off market, too, Austin Eckler, 50 and a half rushing yards. He's, like, 60 and a half everywhere. Kind of juiced to the over, so that's probably moving. I also think Tua over 20 and a half completions

is a pretty good look here, too. Watch out with any Tua overs just because one bad hit, he's done. Yeah, that's true. That's fair. Tyreek is a little off market. That's a good point, though. But Tyreek's proven to be kind of quarterback proof. His receiving yards is up to 81 and a half here on Thrive.

I think in the prop market in general it's still in the high 70s like 78 or so i played 74 and a half at open but i think tyreek is just he's been incredible this year and i don't care if it's teddy or you know skyler thompson or bob greasy the uh the tyreek stuff has been pretty good so yeah get a free t-shirt if you sign up this weekend over at thrive again promo again, promo code 444, thrivefantasy.com, get signed up there and take advantage on Thrive. So give you a couple more tackle props before – because the chat is slacking here. We talked about Jermaine Pratt, Cincinnati.

That's a good one. We talked about already in Deshaun Elliott for Detroit. It's a good one we talked about already in Deshaun Elliott for Detroit it's a good one we are 100% going back to Alex Singleton uh if Josie Jewell is in fact out which I think is going to be the case uh Denver here as we just talked about we expect a pretty rush heavy attack from the Jets and Singleton is coming off of a 21 tackle game, 19 solo tackles, which is just absolutely insane. Very interested to see what the books hang him at probably nine and a half now, which is still fine. I have no problem with him getting there. Jalen Preetree is a safety for the Texans. He's the box safety in this game against the Raiders,

who I think we think could be up comfortably at a point in this game or at least should see a lot of Josh Jacobs carries here. Petrie is interesting. He probably gets hung at like five and a half, which I think is pretty light. He and Jonathan Owens are both pretty viable looks. Owens has been just piling up tackles this season. He's not the box safety, though, which is kind of unusual

when you look at pretty much any other team in the league. It's the box safety who has a higher tackle rate and more tackles. I think it's just because the linebackers are so bad in Houston that they let a lot of stuff get to the back end. So Petrie and Owens, I think, are both pretty good looks. Nick Bolton, I'm on the fence with this. Bolton has at least nine in every game, linebacker for the Chiefs. He's the only linebacker, he plays 100% of the snaps, does not come off the field. The only one on the Chiefs that does so. 10% tackle rate on the

season. He's fifth in the league in total tackles. I just kind of think about how that game goes. I think we know San Francisco wants to run the the football a good amount of opportunities there that if you kind of like the chiefs to maybe win big which i don't i personally don't necessarily i'm thinking you can think the game script kind of gets away from that but they think bolton makes a ton of sense and then cj mosley in that same game with our guy um alex singleton mosley is a linebacker for the jets. At least 10 tackles in five of six. Fourth in the league in tackles, just kind of a year-in-a-year-out stud from a tackle standpoint. So those are some of the main looks for me this week in the tackle streets.

Again, those are going to be given out probably Sunday morning over on 444, our Discord. Again, part of the subscription if you were to hop into the betting sub. So those are some of the looks. We'll fire off a parlay over in prize picks as well but you're only gonna get the official plays when you're in the discord so uh don't hold me to those but those are looks we're definitely want to look at and see what the books post connor i love it yeah and one uh some little breaking news here as the show is going jk dobbins officially announced out for this weekend

um i think that we could get some you know nice looks on kenny drake who looked he's looked good uh and plus yeah i mean maybe yeah maybe gus boss we'll see i don't know it depends on what they drop it at but i mean the matchup's good brown's run defense has been super bad uh you know like i mean bottom two and pretty much every metric so i think that that that is interesting i also too, I'm wondering if sports books will just let us cash our JK Dobbins under 925 and a half rushing yards on season now, or if we have to wait until the end because he is not going to even get to 500 this season based on how this is going. What he said,

like one 20 through I guess now seven weeks. The Christian Watson one feels pretty good as well. Yeah. Under 700. Yeah. he hasn't played forever. And yeah, that was, I think my first future of the season was the Christian Watson play. So yeah. He played that in May. I mean, that was just like, oh, that was cash. Yeah, bad line.

So all right, gentlemen. Enjoy that as always. Pat, remind everyone where they can find all of your tremendous content. Find it at the Mayo Media Network on YouTube, Pat Mayo Experience on podcast networks such as Apple or Spotify. May have heard of them. Might as well go sub, all right? Sub.

It's worth it. Good stuff as always. Connor, it might be a light card for you this week. I don't know what's going on, but I know that you'll be in the corner of the wedding. You'll be that guy Saturday night waiting to see what's dropped just kind of desk scrolling refreshing uh what's on the docket for you yeah i'll be phone scrolling and grinding the props maybe go get some some drinks going on the beach right now you know and uh start start grinding some more props see what else comes out i

mean these props came out really late this week like it was i mean a couple hours ago and they're still dropping like the majority of stuff so i actually prefer it that way for the market but still i think that uh it'll end up being a good week just you know slow off the top here for me yep so check all that stuff out again in the discord as always uh check out the thrive all that stuff in the show notes subscribe rate and review smash the like button share with your friends again goes a long way in helping uh keep the lights on allows us to do lots of different cool things. Bring on very sharp people who basically go 8-0 in the last two weeks like Pat. It helps us a lot.

So do all those things. And we'll be back next week. Thanks, everyone. you