Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 8 PROPS | Top Prop Bets, Predictions & Picks

Episode Date: October 29, 2022

Experts Ryan Noonan, Connor Allen & Pat Mayo share their top Week 8 NFL player prop bets. Tail them as they hand out their top picks, highlight the best betting odds & share their expert predictions.Timestamps: 0:00 Intro5:46 Connor Prop Bet #1 7:27 Pat Prop Bet #1  9:45 Ryan Prop Bet #1 13:37 Connor Prop Bet #2 14:22 Pat Prop Bet #2 15:21 Ryan Prop Bet #2 19:55 Connor Prop Bet #3 21:52 Pat Prop Bet #323:06 Ryan Prop Bet #325:13 Connor Prop Bet #427:35 Pat Prop Bet #4 38:43 Tackle props43:50 Ryan Prop Bet #4 45:57 Thrive Props48:33 PROP TOOL BET OF THE WEEK1:02:55 Outro Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansMove the Line: Prop Drop is sponsored by Thrive Fantasy. Use Promo Code PROPDROP when signing up & you will receive a 100% instant first deposit match up to $250 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3RQQHRuFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Betting on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4BetsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Pat on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ThePMEVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Prop Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TWC40v4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3pQ2tQ14for4 Player Prop Finder 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wxTcQc4for4 Player Prop Odds Comparison Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3AQ5TbK

Hello, welcome to Move the Line Prop Drop Show presented by Thrive Fantasy. I'm Ryan Noonan back to talk about the best way and the most profitable way to bet on NFL football. And that's Player Props. Reminder, we're going to be here 2 p.m. Eastern every Friday, giving you our favorite plays and taking your questions. So if you're hanging out with us on YouTube, subscribe, smash that like button so you don't miss a show. And then jump in the chat.

Let us know what your favorite prop is this week. Any thoughts on our plays or any thoughts, you know, things that you're considering out there. Let us know and we will try to get to as many as we can at the end of the show joining me here as always connor allen how we doing today good uh you know i'm sure the people are very much waiting for how the zoo lights went uh yesterday it was not a zoo lights endeavor it was a apparently i it was like some haunted house thing with like a lot of booze and stuff so ended up being okay it was not that bad i thought it was gonna some haunted house thing with like a lot of booze and stuff. So it ended up being okay. It was not that bad.

I thought it was going to be way, way worse. My expectations were way different. Yeah, Connor was not able to watch the Bucs-Ravens game live after our game preview show last night. He had to jump straight out there with the wife. You know, part of being a newly married man, sometimes you got just sack up and uh do whatever she wants you to do and that sometimes does not involve football and i could glad it was a uh an interesting turn of events you know what was interesting my wife saw her post on instagram and this will be again you will not know this but maya will get the reference connor's wife does have a striking resemblance to a very, very noteworthy challenger.

A old school beast. Anissa. Laurel. Oh, really? Yes. And actually personality vibes too. Guys, I know Maggie and I've watched a lot of Challenge. There's some like, and it's not to compliment.

Like Laurel is a, like get stuff done. You know, direct straight shooter. And I think Maggie has that in spades and that's very much who Laurel is as well. So again, another reason for you to go ahead and watch the season of the challenge, you know,

tell you that, you know, Ryan and Ashley thought that that's reminded them of, of her. So I'm going to get you in those streets, Connor. We're going to get there eventually. I actually tried to turn it on and it didn't work.

Like, I don't know. It was like, I tried to turn it on one of my like streaming things and it was like, I had to pay for it or something. And I was like, I'm not doing this. So it's,

it's Dr. Oral, Matt, right? She's a, she's a doctor. Okay. Good for her.

That's a good compliment. Then the, you know, beauty of watching the show for such a long time to see these people change and grow from early 20s to late 20s and early 30s has definitely been a ride. So yeah, Laurel

is quite the character and going to check that out eventually. Obviously, joining us here as always as well is the man behind the Mayo Media Network and the Pat Mayo Experience. It is Pat Mayo. How are we doing? I'm doing well. Any golf sweats going on? I got some Euro golf sweats going on.

Not so much on the PGA side. PGA is a mess this week. So what are we sweating on the Euro side? Gavin Green and Tapio, whatever the hell his last name is. There's a bunch of like creative names at the top of the uh the bermuda uh leaderboard this week too so well i mean when you have ben crane winning a tournament it's not 2004 you know you got you got some problems it's it's uh it's rough out there in the streets ready for january to get the the boys back more consistently so uh again i want to remind folks we have two episodes and move

the line each week both available streaming here on YouTube. Also available in podcast form wherever you consume your podcast. Game preview show that we referenced earlier last night was Connor Sharp Clark. And we had Austin Gale from The Ringer on. Terrific show. Check that out. A bunch of looks for the, you know, sides and totals out there for week eight. Again, podcast, YouTube, subscribe goes a long way in helping us out. Before we jump in, I want to let you know about a couple of different ways that you can get a 4 for 4 betting subscription for cheap. First through our friends at Thrive Fantasy. We partner with them. You can get it by depositing as a new subscriber or a new user over there, just $20.

Actually, you can go all the way up to $250. They will match your deposit instantly. But again, the $20 subscription over there is going to, the $20 deposit over there is going to get you a free betting subscription with us at 444. No strings attached. It's going to run through the end of December as well. Again, you can go ahead and just use the promo code 444 and you'll get some more details in your email inbox in 48 hours,, you can go ahead and just use the promo code 444, and you'll get some more details in your email inbox in 48 hours. Or you can just take advantage of our Halloween deal. $59 gets you access to everything on our site. That is through Monday. That's going to get you every article, every bet, subscriber discord, again, NBA, college basketball, MMA, still grinding season long,

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Week eight live lines here for you to bet right now no one's giving any stale lines our goal is to make sure we do our best to get you the same price uh or line as much as we possibly can so connor we'll start with you what is your first play for week eight yeah my first one here is dac prescott i like under 236 and a passing yards uh i'm expecting another low volume approach here from the Cowboys at home, nine and a half point favorites against the bears pass events. That's been actually okay. I mean,

12th and DVO way and the run defense has been below average. I mean, whether it's due to like game script or nonstop running the ball on the bear side. I mean, facing the quarterbacks and the bears have thrown for fewer than this number in the majority of contests. The main ones went over was like Kirk cousins on 44 past temps and Davis mills literally barely

went over this number and it took like till the end of the game basically to get there. So, and the last week in Dax return Cowboys do the ball just 25 times, despite the game being, I mean a one score game until two minutes and 46 seconds left in the fourth quarter. It was not all that impressive a performance for, uh so i expect them to run the ball even without zeke here uh you know a good amount um yeah i still like this probably i know we originally played it at 245 uh i i'm still down with it to like 230 i think there's a good chance where he just like doesn't throw the ball much and uh if there's low volume against like a middling pass events i think this is a good spot to take it under here pat where are you on uh dac this week i i mean it was one of my

strongest ones last week i haven't projected 215 passing yards this week so i'm in on it yeah that makes sense too yeah it was a again i think the game script here is going to lead them to be even more uh to connor said you know a little bit more run heavy i can't imagine that things get really wonky here you know though maybe we can see things flip here in an instant with the bears and they maybe unlock something on Monday night, but I still don't think that's going to lead to a heavy pass game, uh, for Dak here. So like that one, uh, how about you, pal? How about number one for you? I'm going to go the opposite way and take an under on passing yards, uh, just on the opposite coast of what we're doing right now in Seattle, Daniel Jones under 196 and a half passing yards.

It's tough to get there when you don't throw and you have no good receivers. So I guess it'd be like a dump off to Barkley twice for 60 yards a piece. And now you're getting there, but these little like blood dumps to Wendell Robinson, I mean, maybe Tanner Hudson can find a seam. It's just really hard to piece together how Daniel Jones gets there when he's not dumping the ball off at all. He's just running in these scenarios. So all those like free yards that you would get even in catch up mode from dumping the ball off just haven't materialized. Not they've been losing a ton of games,

but they've had these stage these comebacks and it's not really on the arm of Daniel Jones on the arm of Daniel Jones on the legs of Daniel Jones so I really like the under 196 and a half Connor any looks there no it's interesting though that like Seattle's defense last two weeks has actually been pretty good by the numbers I mean they came into the year or like the first few weeks they were like bottom five across the board and like DVOA metrics and then the last two weeks we're up to like 17th. I mean, they've just been playing generally better, which has been a little surprising.

So yeah, I think it's probably the right look. Our projections, I mean, are just generally skew high on quarterback yards. So we have a little bit over, but still, I think that that,

I think Pat's on the right side. You can say, I have them over 20 yards under, so that's where I'm at. Yeah. They have, they're skewing that way more and more each week, and rightfully so, and it's working for them too.

So, yeah, I also think, as kind of Pat was outlining there too, when you're looking at passing yards, I think, I don't know, I find more interesting to go to the receptions or attempts and completions this year because of the variance. But when you're leaning under here, you definitely want to eliminate the big play upside. And they just don't have these massive after-the-catch, big play, vertical receiving threats that are going to help.

Even though we might be low passing volume, you just don't have guys that are going to be breaking away massive plays here too. So, yeah, I can get behind that for sure. All right, my first one, Pat, who's already told me he is not behind. So we're going to share it first and then Pat can poo-poo all over it. It is a Sam Ellinger over 21.5 rushing yards. This came out on MGM at minus 110.

It was there about 10 minutes ago. Producer Sal is showing maybe that that's down. I think Bette Rivers had it as well. There's also another random book that I'm not familiar with, with 888 sport that is still holding Ellinger in minus 115. Look, I mean, NFL is very different than college for sure. This guy ran a ton in college. He actually had at least 34 yards in every game. Connor pointed out too, which is noteworthy. They actually know kneel downs as negative rushing yards in college too. So that could skew things and sacks.

And that could skew things a little bit too. Mostly for me here is I think this is going to be a first read and tuck kind of a quarterback that he's going to be pressured a lot. This offensive line for the Colts has been abysmal and Washington actually has been kind of on the uprise as far as you know passing pressure rates here and I just thought this would open closer to 30 so being a low threshold at 21 and a half probably reopens to some of these spots in the mid-20s which I'm okay with too just because again this is not like a dynamic electric athlete he's running like a 4-8

but we even had some splash plays in the preseason where he ran a bunch too. So 21 and a half, pretty low threshold. Again, got it at minus 110 when it first came out. And Pat is being on the side and profitably of rushing unders on quarterbacks this season. You can tell me why Sam Ellinger is going to fail. It feels like one of these things that's going to hit in the first quarter, or you're just going to be sitting there like, why aren't you running? Oh, it's because guys in the NFL are actually fast and you don't play in the

big 10 anymore for the big 12 anymore. Like it's one thing to run a bunch in college. Maybe that can work itself out. I think it's a bit different when everyone on defense is faster than you, even the guys who weigh 360 pounds. So yeah, maybe he'll scramble a bit. I mean, I, I get why you make the move.

Matt Ryan's not working within the context of this offense and he's injured. I was still surprised that they didn't go to Nick Foles. Maybe I'm just have a complete misread of the situation, but it just feels like everyone wants Ellinger to be good this week, where we have no idea if he's good. Chances are he's probably not good. When was the last time like outside of Herbert, when was the last time we saw a guy just come into the league and be good rarely happens I don't think he's going to come in and be good those are not my expectations per se

I just think because he's actually not good he could panic and that probably creates a higher scramble rate because I don't think we're going to have a ton of like design runs for this guy I think it's going to be Pittman's cover, Pittman's cover. Let's go. And that's kind of what even the preseason runs were. There was like a couple option plays that he just decided to keep. And then otherwise it's just like nothing's there. Oh, except no one's covering me and spying on me.

So I'm going to just kind of leak out. And I think that could happen maybe three times, maybe four. And then we're cooking with gas. We only need 21 Connor. What do you think? Yeah, I'm on it. I,

it's something we had talked about actually on move the line, because I think that, I mean, Washington gets a ton of pressure and that's like their secondary isn't good, but they get a lot of pressure. And so if they're flushing him at all, you know,

he's probably gonna take a shill out of sacks too, but like, you know, all it takes is one, you know, one or two runs, you know, leaking out there,

the other side and he should, he'll be all right. So yeah, I like the over, I think, I think it's a good look. know, one or two runs, you know, leaking out there the other side and he'll be all right. So yeah, I like the over. I think it's a good look. I don't know. Our projections are like all over the place, I think, on this one, and rightfully so. And I certainly don't think he's going to be good.

I like the under in this game just in general. But yeah, yeah, I think the over is the right side here. Yeah, no expectations for him to be good. And I get Pat's thoughts too. Like DFS, you know, you're playing on DraftKings this weekend. He's minimum salary. People are going to play him um he probably is a great cash game look i don't know that there's any upside expecting him to play really well for him to you know hit any sort of ceiling in gbp per you know per se but off of the prop market i think we're okay but uh connor can get back to you for uh your second one yeah my second one here

not too much of an explanation i took latavius murray this is something that just popped latavius murray over eight and a half carries uh he had 15 and eight carries in two games splitting work with melvin gordon and mike boone mike boone now out um i figured they'll probably see neutral game script against jacksonville uh you know there's a little bit of a squeaky wheel narrative last week you know with getting melvin gordon to start getting the ball a little bit more. I mean, I wouldn't say Latavius is great, but it just seems like more often than not, he's probably gonna be in like the nine, 10, 11 carry range along with Melvin versus, uh, you know, seven or eight carries. So yeah, I think that our projection is a little bit over 10. Uh, and I

think it's a, I think it's a decent look here. Uh, I mean, he could easily out carry Melvin again. I don't think anyone would be surprised either. Uh. I'm going to stick in that same game with mine and stick in that same back field for mine. And I kind of read the same tea leaves as you with Murray probably out handling Gordon on the ground, but they don't love throwing to Latavius Murray. They're going to be using Melvin Gordon primarily as their pass catching back. And the, the one and a half receptions is juiced up to minus one 90 right now. So that's no fun. So over 12 receiving yards for Melvin Gordon is going to be my second problem.

No problem. Connor, any thoughts there? I mean, you're shorting him in the, you know, on the ground, but you know,

he could probably sprinkle in some, some reception work. No, that's a great one. Cause Mike Boone was taking all the passing work, like obvious passing work. It seemed like so. And I mean, Melvin's a great pass catcher,

so I think that's actually a really good look there. If they pass like at all, he should be involved. Nice. A little same game parlay that correlates well there with obviously what happens with Mike Boone leaving there and opening things up. All right, my second one is of the same beats, cut from the same cloth as my first.

I'm going with Geno Smith, over 15.5 rushing yards. This is available on BetRivers. It's crawled up to 16.5 elsewhere. Again, still the same price, no problem with that. Geno, not your prototypical rushing quarterback. He's mobile enough. He's shown it at times this year. This is very matchup specific when you look at when he's gone over this.

He's gone over it big in the two times he has. Week four against Detroit, seven carries for 49 yards. Detroit plays a ton of man. They blitz at the second most frequent rate in the league. Week six, Arizona, six carries, 48 yards. Arizona also plays a decent amount of man, and they blitz at the fourth highest rate in the league this week gino plays the new york giants who lead the league in both blitz and

man rate so uh pretty straightforward i think it's just going to be a similar situation it's not going to be a ton of design runs he's just going to get flushed out of the pocket a handful of times and when he's done this you know he's gone comfortably over uh you know running for you know seven eight yards a clip in these instances so gino over 15 and a half only need to get flushed out twice essentially with that mindset but uh pat any thoughts on the gino play i try to stay away from this one because it's either over by a lot or like none it just really depends on the circumstances. But if you think they can generate that pressure, then yeah,

especially without DK around, I can see that being the case. The thing that you would run into here is if Seattle does get up in this game, like they will legit just run the ball every time and not with Gino. Yeah. And we played Kenneth Walker right when that dropped to you and got absolutely cooked.

So it's like six yards up. So we won't be sharing that one. But again, 59 bucks to get in the subscriber-only Discord. You get that right away. You could have played that with us. But yeah, I think it's going to be a great spot for Kenneth Walker. I think actually Kenneth Walker longest rush is still a nice look that's out there too. I think at like 17 and a half yards.

I think the Giants are 30th in explosive run rate, 31st in adjusted line yards on the defensive line so like yeah it could be a great kenneth walker game i don't think that necessarily seeps into the handicap for gino per se because i don't think gino's stuff is going to be designed runs i do think it's going to be him getting flushed out because of pressure connor any thoughts on uh on the gino rushing no i saw it i mean your your explanation makes a lot of sense um i'm just trying to like, I don't know. It's one of those, my process throughout the week is generally like I make

notes, I hit the overs that I like, and then I almost exclusively try and play unders like the rest of the week. Uh, like if it's something that I don't like love and I don't have to stand out, I just like, don't play any overs unless it's like you put something that we're on my, holy shit. That's amazing. Uh, and so for me, this one, I think it's good. I'm just like, not all the way there yet on something that, I mean, he does need to get flushed out of the pocket for this to hit. So that's just kind of like, I don't know.

That's kind of where I'm at on it. Yeah. Yeah. It's definitely game matchup handicap specific because it's, there's nothing in there. When you look at game logs or any tendencies, as far as, you know,

rushing on Gino side, that should make you feel confident about it. Unless New York just gets pressure. And again, they're going to blitz so much that they're going to get there a couple of times. Hopefully he tucks and runs. So Connor can get back to you again,

a reminder if you're hanging out in the chat, let us know your thoughts. Unfortunately, Boyden, we will not be talking about the world series. We do not have any world series takes for you. You're in the wrong channel. Maybe Pat has something on the Mayo media network. No, no, not that. Here's the thing. If you do baseball content, you're in the wrong channel um maybe pat us something on the mayo media network uh no no here's the thing if you do baseball content you're gonna go broke

it's true we gotta do it every freaking day so yeah 92 year olds don't know how to use the internet it's a good it's a good boy like i mean baseball tiktok content has to be the most useless content like in the history of the internet. Yeah, that's amazing. I can say that I'm rooting for Houston to win. Ooh, that's a bold take, though. Is it? What? No, man.

I mean, Houston's, like, rooting for the house and Blackjack. I mean, no one needs it. Yeah, it's great. You just like chaos? I enjoy their Eddie Guerrero-style cheat-to-win methods. Okay. I tailed Steve. He told me to bet Astros minus one and a half

like plus money or whatever uh like in the series spread so i said okay i would tell i mean i need some action apparently it's on tonight didn't even know what channel was on or anything so i guess i'll have it on at my house but we'll see well it's probably on like 9 p.m because they're doing such a great job at growing the game that they want you know again the 92 girls are sleeping like yeah the kids are asleep there's just no way none of us in our age group are really interested outside of uh you know steve and a couple of people steve knows so yeah not great connor back to you uh problem number three yeah problem number three uh i like aaron rogers here under 242 and5 passing yards You find that in most can be shops Things of that sort

I expect his struggle to continue Now facing the Bills Getting healthier off their bye Number one in DVOA, fourth in pass DVOA Third in explosive pass rate allowed And Aaron Rodgers is going to be without Alan Lazard I mean Rodgers is coming off Just multiple poor games in a row

He's gone under this number in four of seven games, as is against, like, weaker or middling competition, and under in two of his last three. Barely got over this number against, you know, one of the games there. But I think this is a good look under here to, like, probably, I mean, 235 or so. Like, the only concern is that, like, he has, like, every, you know, the two-minute drive and, like, you know, the end of the game, like they're so far up that he's just passing like every play.

But I feel like more often than not, we've talked about in here that that just like doesn't work out. I'm going over the matchup so hard that I think the under here, there's still enough cushion to sound like it's like 160 yards. You know what I mean? Like some of these guys. So I think that this is a solid look on the under here. Yeah.

Maybe no David Bakhtiari here like uh that's we haven't got that officially i don't think yet but like yeah they're gonna be able to generate so much pressure and he said yeah the game script is gonna work he's gonna be throwing a ton the second half they're not gonna be able to sustain drives so yeah and like to who like dubs romeo dubs or dobs is in the doghouse lazard is injured i mean who like robert tanya and the bills are awesome against tight ends. I mean, it's really tough all around. Yeah, it's a good look, Pat.

What do you think about fading Rodgers? I like the Bills to cover the 11 in this game. So that makes a lot of sense to me. This was five and like the look aheads not too long ago, which is just painful to think about too. Yeah, I actually think it's too little. I think it should be like 14 and a half based on what we've seen from these teams.

You know? Yeah, 14 and a half, you'd start to see some on the other side. But yeah, Alts are probably a good look because I could see that one getting pretty wonky. Pat, how about your third? I looked at the receptions, which I really liked,

but I saw that it was juiced to the nine. So Pat Fryermuth, over 34 and a half receiving yards against the Eagles. You know, they're one of the biggest underdogs of the week. Not that that means anything in the NFL anymore, because these teams just outright win every single week. But if they do get behind to Philly early by like 10 or 14,

it's going to be all passing all the time. And we know what Philadelphia can do in its secondary against the outside receivers. So expect a lot to funnel towards the middle of the field. We've already seen the relationship between Pickett and Pat Fryermuth so far, so it doesn't seem like a big ask to get there. This just reeks of a 5-for-42 type game from him. Yep.

That was going to be my next one, so I'm going to pivot because I'll add to it. We have two games with Kenny Pickett under center for Fryermuth. Seven catches on nine targets for 85 against the Jets. Eight catches, nine targets for 75 against Miami. Eagles facing the sixth highest rate of targets to tight ends this season. So, yeah, I mean, I'm with you on fire move. I'm going to stay at the position, though,

and I will go with Mike Gusecki over two and a half receptions. This is plus 100, even at MGM. DK is minus 105 on DK. So we have back-to-back seven game targets for Gusecki, and Dermot Smythe has been dealing with a little bit of a hammy. He played last week with his hammy. Still barely saw the field. He's been limited, limited so far in practice this week. So I don't think it really matters. We've seen Gusecki kind of start to get over that 70% participation we'd like to see from tight ends. And again, like we're seeing the volume

too with the seven target games, back-to-back lines, terrible. 31st in DVOA against tight ends. And again, like we're seeing the volume too, with the seven target games, back-to-back lines, terrible 31st in DVOA against tight ends of the season, seven and a half targets, 65 yards per game so far. And I just love this game environment where I don't think Miami runs away per se. I think this game is going to be a little bit back and forth. I think 51 and a half is the total. Again, just a lot of volume here, a lot of plays. So Gusecki catching three balls here hopefully he doesn't use his face to try to catch him in the end zone or anything like he tried to do the other night but uh pretty low threshold considering he's seeing this much volume so uh over on gasecki he was a guy we've been under on and we had a long term he sees along uh under on gasecki but

again he's still fighting an uphill battle to get there connor what are your thoughts on on big mike yeah i think your reasoning makes sense. I mean, I just can't bet an over on Mike Gusecki. I just feel like maybe it's a blind spot. I just can't do it. I don't know. It's just where we came from in the beginning. I don't know.

He's fine. I think it's a good play. I would almost rather play the yards. What was the yardage? It was like 30? It wasn't up at the time. Let me see what we got right now um i don't know not a bad look on the yards but i mean he's uh yeah 26 and a half 20 yeah 26

has getting juiced a little bit uh although mgm's got it at minus 110. yeah it's kind of the best place to go on the arts so yeah i don't i don't hate that i mean three balls though is also pretty low threshold so yeah um don't hate either of those looks on kiseki uh all right back to you uh your fourth all right let's see here we got courtland sudden i'm going back to the well here with my guy over i think it's at 54 and a half receiving yards. Now it's a pretty massive adjustment in the market from what we saw the last time he was playing with, with Russ. So the last time he gets the chargers, this line was like 67. Uh, and now you're looking at Russ being back. He's, you know, doing his high knees in the plane, staying healthy, staying fit. Um,

you know, he's going to be, they're rolling them out there. Uh, and I, I understand taking it over and any Bronco feels gross, but like now, I mean, with looking with, uh, Russell Wilson, Corlin Sutton has put up 72, one 22, 97, a 52 yarder. And then 72 prior to his game against the chargers where Russ was hurt, uh, as well. So I think that, I mean, we have 66 projected here. So, I mean, I'd play it up to like 55 56 i think is more than fine uh and he's like saw seven or more targets in every other game as well so i think he's in a good spot here to maybe not crush but just like i mean be beat his number and be above average well when you got mr unlimited coming back of course of course you got to go over

yeah it's such an insufferable story That like, he's getting quote tweeted to By his teammates and you can tell like Like yeah, no this is true There was no like, yeah I love this guy He's fighting for us, he's like dying to play And get out there for us, it's just like Nope, no cap, this guy was doing this

And uh Again, no cap is not my words I saw someone tweet that. So Connor's looking at me like, what are you doing? But yeah, this guy is, he's just like a meme of himself at this point. It's pretty, it's pretty wild. So yeah, I mean, it's just like every report that comes out. I'm like, this can't be real.

And it's real. I mean, I don't know. I wonder when the subway ad was filled. That was a good one too. That was, I mean, it just like, I feel like it had to be like months ago probably. And now people are just like posting about it because it's so goofy. And we know now what Russ is. It's,

it's been a wild turn there in Denver. Nothing tops wearing your own Jersey, like just casually, which is, I think he did in the, like the preseason where he had that, like, it was like the big Hummer and he went to practice and he walked in and

like his, his own Broncos Jersey, just very i mean it takes a special human being russell wilson definitely like sniffed his own farts like i mean for sure oh pat how about you buddy i'll bring us home number four yeah i i'm in a tough spot here because there's a couple of ones that i want to attack on the board like some of the derrick henry props for example but they're not giving us carries they're just giving us yardage and the yardage is almost at 100 it's funny that it was at 71 and a half like three weeks ago funny how times have changed but they won't do that to nick chubb with us again for a

while either after last week when he had the worst possible game flow and still obliterated his rushing yardage total just took a second but you know once you fed him some carries it was all good when he started reeling off like 16 yards of carry in the fourth quarter so here are the ones that i'm playing around with and we'll see which one you like the most you guys can help me out with this i got like seven of them so hear me let's go derrick carr under half an interception what do you think i don't love like the binary interception touchdown things just because like they're so high variance i don't feel like we have an edge in predicting some of that stuff but yeah i mean he's accurate this defense is a mess yeah i'm in i like it raheem mostert over 15 and a half longest rush against this lion's defense i play mostert over 66 and a half rushing

yards uh i think he's cleared he was like a little injury report thing but he's good to go yeah in on mostert for sure derrick henry over 18 and a half longest rush against the texans who can't stop anyone already played it i played it this morning oh really yeah all right so apparently i'm reading your tea leaves. It's like I logged into your Discord and just copied your picks. Not the case, by the way. That is not what I did. So those were kind of on the periphery for me.

I had Mac Jones under 192 and a half passing yards. I don't think he's completely healthy and he sucks. So that's a decent one. So here's some of the other ones. Donta Foreman over 10.5 receiving yards. No Hubbard. No Hubbard. Yeah, that's an interesting thing.

I don't have – what are our numbers? I don't even know if we're updated on that yet. Connor, what's yours? We are. Let's see. I mean, I can run them very quickly too. Let's see. Do I have Hubbard still in?

How about Hubbard? No, that's Nick Chubb. No, I do not have Hubbard into Foreman. Dr. Foreman, three catches for 26 yards is what I haven't projected at. So we're at three for two point nine for 20. So it's it's a good edge there. What about I mean, it looks like Raheem Blackshear is that there. I mean, I don't know. We're at fourth string running back at this point. He was a good he was a decent pass catcher at uh like v tech i think that's where he went um but i i don't know i mean foreman's gonna play the whole game so i don't think it really matters i i find we get we fall into these traps and this is

what i was talking about ellinger before that maybe i said it off the hop is like if they're in the nfl chances are they were pretty good at doing something in college right and that doesn't necessarily normally translate for the nfl i went to go smash michael carter overs on everything but they won't offer them so they've been slow actually well in the last like hour or so a lot of stuff's come in finally but yeah some of the specific things like carries receptions um past attempts uh you know we'd love to get back on the marcus mariotta train this week is uh it's been slow to come that that's gonna flip one of these weeks he's gonna throw the ball 61 times this is connor and i did this early in the year with the justin field stuff where it's like what

number do we like balk at because they're just not doing it but like we just keep it's not even close to mariotta stuff like they were down 21 zip and they threw the ball 13 times. They had a negative 37% pass rate over expectation. The win game when Mack Jones threw it once against the Bills was a negative 42. We're like, we're threatening that game in a clear weather game down 21. And they're like, no, we're just going to run the crap out of the ball. So like, yes, I agree with you. At one point, we're just gonna run the crap out of the ball so like yes i agree with you at one point we're just gonna be like i'm gonna catch everyone off guard i don't know you would think it might be this week because carolina is actually pretty stout

against the run but i still don't think it's happening and we've been so far away from where he's landed like in the mid-20s i know it's incredible like how bad it's been so to talk a little bit more about this foreman split right now with blackshear i have foreman in for 55 of the rushing carries pj walker at 10 and i have blackshear in at 30 like i don't think that's out i think it's actually more lean towards foreman but i think if we're just going on the law of averages here like 30 if if you said that blackshear played 30 or gets 30 of the rushes and he gets 7% of the receiving market share. And Foreman is still way over all these numbers based on what we have him at. Like, you know, it could really lean more towards Foreman, couldn't it?

Yeah, that's actually not far off of where we are too, because we have Blackshear for six and a half rushing attempts and 2.2 receptions. So again, he's mixing in and we're still comfortably over on the foreman number. So yeah, I think the foreman numbers is a pretty good look. Oh, the foreman numbers are a good look. The last two that I wanted to go are just high end receivers who I think are going to have big weeks.

And when they have big weeks, they tend to beat these numbers. One would be Tyree kill over 86 and a half receiving yards. The other one, Justin Jefferson over 89 and a half receiving yards. And that's like one play for Tyreek Hill. Yeah. This is not a pool that Connor dips his toes into, but I love elite wide receiver overs. The Tyreek one in particular, I think is a great play. Yeah. Justin Jefferson as well. I mean, cause like you said, when they go there, these guys are alphas and they had this happens. This is in their range of outcomes. So

these media projections actually can get caught hanging a little low for these guys because when they go they they can go for 150 well this was the surprising part about it was what do you think i have the median projection for for both these guys um i would say tyreek is probably right around there maybe like i'd say 89 97 justin jefferson 115 wow yeah yeah i mean they're great matchups uh up in pace like there's a lot to like about the game invite dome like you don't have to wear any weather concerns there's a lot to like about both of those guys um yeah we have a jefferson reception prop is that out yet have we seen that i i haven't seen it yet i've just seen the yardage total yeah i'm guessing it's seven and a half which is a good number yeah if we get six and a half there were some six and a half like recently uh like previous

weeks that would be a smash if i see a six and a half but the one the one thing i think you can go back and track all the picks that we've made on this show so far this year but i think i feel like every time at least i i only remember my picks i'm sorry but every time that i've gone to an elite player on and over it is absolutely crushed be it a running back or receiver yeah even the six and a half six and a half on uh receptions for tyreek have got juiced like crazy as well uh but i think we're at like nine projections for tyreek and this i have him at uh 8.1 so i i wouldn't i wouldn't play that with extreme juice yeah agreed but yeah i'm there on the yardage for sure because of the yards for outrun stuff is insane for tyreek i mean

he fell a little short last week um we lost him by like a yard and a half which is a bummer but uh they even tried to force it a plate to him late in the game when they probably shouldn't have thrown at him uh but yeah he's great matchup for for alpha wide receivers too so yeah i love the rapid fire at the end so i'm gonna go with donta foreman over 10 and a half receiving yards minus 115 right now it's not bad at all i like that i got a couple too well let's uh we'll first of all the mariotta thing probably going back to the wall of both uh unders on the completions and attempts again i don't know what do you think the number's at pat what do you think they're hanging at because

we were like 28 and a half i think last week was 26 and a half it's probably down to like maybe 24. uh i think connor put a poll out on twitter about like is it over under 20. connor what were those results i mean the results were her all, it was like 80% under 20, but I'm like, dude, they don't post like passing numbers under 20. Like it was a kind of like a trick question, but we'll see. I don't know. Well, I mean, I find that my projections are really outside of the outliers, which is what I'm searching for every single week,

that they're right around that number. I'm going to say his passing attempts is going to be 21 and a half. Yeah. Our projections, I don't know where we're at. We have 23. I just don't see what's feeding into that to make any sense to me. But I don't know. I'm probably playing under 20 until we see something different.

And I'll take the L when it happens. But, like, it's like just show me. It's just to prove it at a certain point. And I don't think this is, like, a ton of play volume in this game either. I just don't think that there's going to be a lot where, like, they're going to be pushed. If that last week wasn't the game, when your opponent is literally just in shotgun throwing it down your throat

every play and you get out to a 21 zip deficit and you're like nope here we go caleb huntley tyler agir like you know i i don't know i don't know what's gonna to make it go differently so any worries that they like i don't know they don't care about what we say but like you know the media like pressuring them at all i mean i mean i i it matters to some coaches i feel like like sometimes you see that stuff but i don't know it's just like yeah i guess they probably don't care right arthur smith has been the dude who's been like very outspoken about i don't care about your fantasy team i don't care about any of these things like he's trying to win football games

it's working they if they win whoever wins that game is in first place in the nfc south is it's like theoretically working for them a little bit right like and Mariota hasn't even been inefficient as a passer which is nuts so yeah no it's crazy I mean they could yeah like Pat said they're gonna come out one game and just like throw 40 times randomly and it's going to be wild who if you stack them in DFS you'll be winning a million dollars but you might go broke prior to that just trying to jam in Falcons every week. Yeah. Others that haven't popped that I'm looking for either going to be longest reception or yards for Chris Olave, who isn't necessarily that alpha yet, but I think we're kind of approaching that. Nate Hobbs is really the only good cover corner for the

Raiders. He's out again. We just continue to see insane target volume for Olave every time he's in the lineup. So we're either going to look at yards or longest reception there. Talked about it before. I want to go there again. Naheem Hines, under 10.5 rushing yards on Caesars. It's 6.5 everywhere else. He has 16 rushing yards in the season. I do not know why he continues to get hung like even close

to 10 um he gets like three four carries here and there sometimes he just gets one carry again we talked about you know his washington fronts pretty stouts colts have really struggled to run the ball i think it's just going to be john den taylor and then you know whatever ellinger could do for us but i don't think neem hines on the ground is going to be a part of this game plan. They kind of, they got returning punts again. So like, I don't know, 10 and a half seems like such a low threshold, but that seems way too high. Some of the other books have started to get cooked on that.

I want to give a couple of looks for tackle props for some guys here that we're going to look at. Again, we literally have one game. We just have the London game for tackle so far. So I lost money on tackle props with the, the one that I threw in all my parlays. Cause I had, they didn't offer up any of the guys that you gave out last week.

It sucked. This is the problem. Like some of these elite elite guys sometimes are just not getting posted anymore, which is, yeah, I had the guy in Houston, wherever the hell his name is.

Number five on Houston. Oh petrie yeah and he had like three and a half in the first quarter and then didn't have any of the rest of the game uh turns out you get benched for missing tackles and he spent a large chunk of time uh on the sideline in the third and fourth quarter so yeah that tracks 11 and four so far and posted official plays in the tackle streets. So we're going to continue to bang the drum. Again, subscribers, I put a sheet in there for us. We have previews on 61 guys this week in the tackle. So we have notes.

Just in case they post some of these guys, we have some thoughts here. So we're going to go with Cam Curl. Box safety for the commanders commanders probably gonna get hung like five and a half uh cole holcomb who's their stud linebacker just got ruled out even better for cam curl uh plays a really high rate of box snaps three straight weeks of seven tackles and i found out that there are a a couple of spots, where, well, first of all, looking at positions versus teams too, the Colts have given up a lot of stuff to, I don't know, it's pretty noisy to safety so far this year. And the added thing that I think is pretty interesting,

there are generous and not so generous scorekeepers. And apparently the scorekeeper at Lucas Oil, as it relates to tackle assist, is the most generous in the league. Because this, again, it's a little bit more noisy because assist is a very, it's a human element. Like it's, how do you determine who is involved? If it's not a solo tackle, who gets an assist? How many people are involved? And apparently the lucas oil

scorekeeper is the most generous so we're going to look at some stuff in that game cam curl is the favorite they're going to look for a uh a ton of play volume in that game um let me see where did i go lost my tackles i mean this is next level betting right here we can pay those guys off you know i mean like we go yeah i mean it's it's like errors in baseball okay connor i i'm i i just looked this up because i had no idea how do you think that he spells his first name his name is cameron uh it's got to be with like a k or something like that if you if you're saying that it's got to be like we're doing a spelling bee right now all right we'll do uh k-a-m e-r-o-n i don't know just with like no no you really don't want to over pronounce camren

now do you oh okay okay so it's like is there like a r-y-n no it's k-a-M-R-E-N. K-A-M-R-E-N. K-A-M-R-E-N. Yep. This is stud. Oh, boy. He's going to have a nice little day. And again, I think 5.5 is the number there. It's been pretty consistently 5.5.

Three straight at seven. This is going to be a good spot to get 5.5. Play volume is nice. Well, I mean, Ellinger has to be tackled 38 times in this game. See? Correlations. Unfortunately, you cannot add tackle props to any same game parlays yet so uh maybe our friends at draft kings pat you can make a call for us get us right tried that doesn't work um we're gonna stay at the safety position to sean elliott for the lions got us there last week five and a half i think he he got hurt and still got nine,

like barely played in the fourth quarter. He's fine. He like cramped. We came out, we hit over five and a half last week at plus money. He got us nine. Insane tackle rate for safety. Plays a ton in the box.

And I think you're going to see, again, a lot of that. He'll be trying to grab Raheem Mostert. Again, play volume in that game, I think is going to be pretty high this week. So 11, 12, and 8 the last couple weeks. Shocked that they hung up at 5.5 last week. They probably do the same thing because it was 5.5 at plus money. We'll go back to Deshaun Elliott.

And I'll give one more. Miles Jack for the Steelers. I think the Eagles run a ton of plays here. They're going to run a lot. Jack wears the green dot, which means he's like the play caller from the sideline defensively. 9% tackle rate on the season. He has eight or more in six of seven games.

He's eighth in the league in total tackles. He'll probably be hung around seven and a half, which is kind of where his number has been. So Miles Jack will have a lot of chances because I think the Eagles probably run the most plays this week too. So again, plays, play volume, those things lead to opportunity. So there are three for you. And the tackles again, subscribers on 444 will get those likely Sunday morning because

they've been holding out until the very end here on the tackles. So I'll look for those probably four or five at least on Sunday. So and then my last play that I'm going to share officially here, Jacoby Myers will go over 49 and a half receiving yards. I played this yesterday at 48 and a half, 49 still fine. Last week against the Bears

was the first time all year he's had less than 55. And actually it was shocked to learn the Bears actually have allowed the fewest catches and yards in the league to slot receivers. The Jets corners are fantastic. Sauce Gardner, DJ Reed are really good, but they're playing exclusively on

the outside. They do not go to the slot at all. It's actually the other Michael Carter plays the slot for the Jets and he's been not good. So Myers is averaging 71 receiving yards on the season, 23% target share. We have him comfortably at like 66 and a half yards. He's a bad number. Even if there's a low play volume, even if Matt goes under his number, I think Jacoby at 48 and a half in the matchup against the, you know, definitely the weakest link in that secondary is a,

is a pretty good look. So Pat, what do you think about Jacoby? I got him at 58 receiving yards. And I actually pointed this out on my drafting show today as well, that you're not going to see. So I mean, I'm not even concerned about Reid. I'm concerned about Sauce is where I want to go.

Because usually they're having safety help. They're letting Sauce play man with no help. And then on the other side, they're playing man with help overhand. And, yeah, that's where you're going to beat them. You're going to beat them in the middle of the field. The Packers could have beat them at the middle of the field. They didn't drop every pass that was thrown to them. I like it too.

Yeah, you avoid Sauce for sure. Listen listener saying elliot hasn't been practicing all week he's been dealing with cramps if he's out we'll adjust we can see you're still waiting on who's going to play middle linebacker for uh the commanders as well because that might be a good look and then sometimes you get these guys that you have to decide they're second guys for options for like a reason but then the books don't really give them the credit that they think because they don't really have any baseline stats. Like our guy, Alex Singleton was that guy.

He doesn't play when Josie jewel plays, but when Singleton plays, like he just 11 tackles again last week, they didn't hang him of course. Cause he had 21 the game before they probably had no idea what to put his number at. So we'll wait and see again, subscribers check that

out it'll be in the discord on sunday um all right connor thrive again our users can get a betting subscription for 20 bucks using promo code 44 over at thrive fantasy have you taken a look at anything there this week uh give me a second here i'm firing it up again now you want to go first here no seconds go i don't even have it loaded there's a couple that you've actually already played that i think are interesting dac prescott is posted in their gbp because again they have two ways they have a prop lobby and then they have a gbp game basically where you can play they have 20 prop props posted you pick over under there's a point total associated with it uh you get points for being

right and then based on the point totals that's how you finish in the tournament uh dac is posted at 257 and a half passing yards uh which is high and you're actually uh it's essentially plus money to go under uh at 105 and then also the aaron rogers number 241. And that's 90 points to the under. So right around where those looks were for you. Another one that I think is pretty interesting. Again, one that Pat mentioned, Justin Jefferson, 85 and a half receiving yards. That's even at 100 points. So a pretty good look there.

And then if you want to go with Derrick Henry, he a combined rushing and receiving at 102 and a half total yards. And that's flat as well at a hundred. So again, his rushing number alone is pushing a hundred at this point. So those are kind of my favorite looks. Okay. Yeah. I pulled it up here.

We can go through some, get a quick, fresh look here. Stefan digs over under one and a half touchdowns. I would actually, I mean, normally I always bang the under and the under is probably the right side here, but, uh, I mean, Stefan digs and I mean, the bills should, should absolutely crush this week. Uh, Rogers, you mentioned this,

right? Two 41. I don't know if you mentioned that. That was, I mean, that's a great underlook Debo 57 and F is, is a unique one for sure. Um, but generally just, I don't know. I feel like every time, every week I play a couple of these contests and I'm like, man, I should probably just play more because this is, I mean, the lines are just like ridiculous. Yeah.

Again, 20 K to first, and there's 4,400 entries in the tournament. I think right now there's like 300. So plenty of, plenty of spots still available for you. Thrive fantasy.com. Download the app.

Promo code 444. And you get a $20 betting subscription to 444. So, all right. What else? Producer Sal? Sal's got some props. He's got a prop. Let's go, Sal.

Hit us with your pj walker prop uh we got pj walker over 181 passing yards and pj walker yeah over a half of a touchdown juice yeah 181 for pj walker we actually have a subscriber talking about betting him in the alt markets like the uh you know weekend specials to lead the league in passing yards uh shout out sam was talking about that today um yeah pretty low number where you at pat where do you have a pj walker i got him at 232 yeah we're like 221 i think 225 oh no we're yeah 225 right here peach okay big week for pj such a good matchup i mean and what falcons will be missing terrell too. So yeah, already ruled out. I was thinking about playing DJ more unders everywhere. Cause everyone loves DJ more again.

That that's going to go well. Yeah. What can go wrong? Right. His reception or his yards came out of like 53 and a half. And that's already up to like 63 and a half or something like that. It's been absolutely beat to hell since it first came out. So he needed literally a 50% target share last week

to finally pay off any sort of value season, like any dent in the damage he's done to you so far this season. Again, no fault of his own, but it is what it is. But yeah, it's definitely a popular play this week. So yeah, PJ, 25, 225 is what we have. This is our player prop tool. This is, again, tied to our projections,

which have been industry-leading for over a decade. Again, part of the betting subscription. Again, access to everything on the site. Definitely want to check that out in a number of ways. We've already talked about it. So check it out, 444.com slash plans. Get the betting sub. Producer Sal's got a nice little same-game parlay there.

I like it. PJ might be worth a look. Maybe even some alts. What do you think dante foreman over 66 and a half rushing yards and what do you think pollard opens at paul is out oh well it's not on draft kings what is it 78 and a half it's high it's it's i have them beating that number i know it's yeah we do too but it's still like I'm waiting for the combo yards they haven't dropped combo yards it's already up to I have powered at 94. it's already up to seven so uh FanDuel has 79 and a half don't know what that site is I don't think that's a real site it's not a real site uh points bet also barely a real site, 80 and a half. I mean, it is too low.

Yeah, no combo yards either. So, which I think is interesting too. I mean, I don't know. It's not like Zeke's been like an air ball in the passing game anyway. So I don't know that necessarily Pollard is going to see a huge bump in passing game work because Zeke's out. So maybe rushing is probably the better way to go. And we have him like right at 75. We only have him for 13 carries.

I mean, who else do we have projected to get carries? Rico Dowdle? Yeah, that's wrong. Okay, well, I'll tell Paulson. I mean, that's just wrong. Yeah. I got him at 17 carries. Okay, yeah.

I mean, that makes more sense. I mean, he should have at least 15, 16 carries. I feel like we have a project of like 13.8. So that's not enough. Yeah, who do, that, that makes more sense. Like, I mean, you should have at least 15, 16 carries. I feel like we have a project of like 13.8. So that's, that's not enough. Yeah. Who, who do I have in the back? I don't even know who their backups are at this point. Malik Davis. Yeah. That sounds like fun. Yeah. I have him at 25%. Yeah. We got really Davis getting three and a half carries here.

And I still have Dak at 12%. I just don't think he's gonna rush all that much right now yeah yeah malik davis is taking some and then yeah rico dowell is uh is taking a solid chunk uh according to our projections here which is which i think is definitely a little bit aggressive yeah but again even with 13.8 in this matchup against the Bears, we still have Pollard getting pretty close to that one. Do we know if Noah Brown is playing? I have not seen anything. I don't know if he practiced today or not.

I couldn't find any information on it. All of a sudden, because Gallup was so horrible last week with zeros across the board. If Noah Brown doesn't play, I bet you his numbers are artificially low. I don't see anything on the Cowboys practice report yet. Yeah, nothing official from them. Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry officially ruled out, so we should see Crystal Lave props shortly.

Is there a chance they like died in london and like just no one reported it i think yeah under investigation sleuth some social media sleuthing maybe find out if they've been posting anything on uh on ig or anything i don't know michael thomas is like never playing again i know it's not even like spite sean paint stuff anymore he just can't stay on the field yeah it's a tough scene i like michael thomas too Michael Thomas is never playing again. I know. It's not even like spite Sean Payton stuff anymore. He just can't stay on the field. Yeah, it's a tough scene. I like Michael Thomas too.

Or maybe he'll be like Kadarius Toney where all of a sudden it turns out he wasn't injured at all. Yeah, gets traded and he's fine. Yeah, he's the Kevin Nash gif of just standing up from the wheelchair. That was amazing. Because I mean, we had heard in like whatever the year prior that like he basically

just told the coaching staffs like fuck off and he wasn't playing because he's the best player and he can do whatever he wanted and so i was like oh this guy you know seems like a you know a good team player and then this year it seems like probably had another interaction that was similar so um well those those types of players are good to put with the actual best player right like what are they gonna be like yeah no daniel jones he's really good trust us let's see we got a few questions here in the chats uh any effect on dax yards with zeke out i think we're pretty much a strong no connor any thoughts about uh you know zeke impacting that no i mean i feel like yeah i just don't think it

really matters too much he'll probably probably give Pollard plenty of work and still just run the ball a decent amount. So I think that it'll be fine. I mean, I can't imagine them altering their entire game plan just because Zeke isn't out. But, I mean, maybe. It's the Cowboys. They love him.

Yeah. Well, Jerry loves him. Adam, shout out to Adam, a subscriber with us at 444, wanting to know, Steph Diggs, over 6.5 receptions, knowing that Green Bay is last in DBOA to No. 1 receivers. Again, they don't use Jair Alexander to shadow a lot, even though he's pretty terrific. But again, thinking it's a smash spot for Diggs.

Pat, what do you have Diggs' receptions at? Diggs' receptions? I didn't even think about it, to tell you the truth. It could be one of those games where they run the ball 35 times very like backers don't do much well at this point on defense and it looks like rashaun gary might miss this game with a concussion as well so that's even worse news for everyone else i got digs at 6.1 catches for 75 and a half yards yeah it's not a bettable edge we're a little bit over that but not something that I would chase too. Because again, yes,

their pass rate over expectation is through the roof. They're going to throw a ton. Regardless, they will get out to a huge lead. They will do that via the air. But again, you know, that's kind of a high threshold for volume. And, you know, if I wanted to go to Diggs, do you think it's a good edge?

Probably look at Diggs in any time, touchdown market or even yards versus the volume of receptions here marquez calloway's prop this week is three and a half receptions he has not been over that number this year and that includes games of seven targets six targets six targets he just very low catch rate on marquez calloway yeah that's a good that's too high i'm surprised what's you guys juiced up yeah it's juiced up a bit now and for anyone listening right now if you guys want some some fun bets right now the weekly specials marketed

fan duel is broken uh so uh you know benjamin was 300 to 1 aj dylan was 300 to 1 and jamal williams is 290 to 1 to lead the league in rushing uh just a week in rushing this week. So, I mean, all their prices are broken. Devin Singletary is 110 to one. That's actually, that's actually, like the other three are just absolute, you might as well let your money on fire. But that one's not bad. They're 300 to one.

So I don't know. You know, Benjamin's like the third stringer again now. Yeah. James Conner just got announced out. Oh, is that true? I thought he was. Yeah. No, no, no, no, no.

That's a waste of money. They also had. What was it? The only media Zach. Yes, was 15 to one. He was like top five to lead the league and receiving yards for the week. So they were missing two zeros on that. Yeah.

I'm not sure what's going on over there. So Daryl Williams still might be in. Okay. Interesting. He was. Wasn't he a game time decision 10 days ago yeah lying 10 days liars been a long 10 days life comes at you slowly in the desert i think i moved to the desert should i move to arizona uh that's a big move don't you is your family the rest of the family up by you or oh yeah all the families here my wife hates the heat but you know i like the heat so maybe i want to do that

philly maybe a vacation home in the desert you know sorry ryan too rich i mean you're fucking pat mayo what are you talking about how many houses listen i already own four houses i can't own a fifth one. Come on. What are we talking about here? I did look. I went to actually before we had kids. It's probably where we conceived a kid, but we went just spur of the moment.

Our friends called us up when I lived in Toronto. They lived in Calgary and they were like, hey, you want to go to Mexico this weekend for three days? It was like a Thursday night. It's like we looked up the flights to Cancun to go to play a del carmen it was like yeah we could probably swing that you know we don't have kids we can do whatever we want this is great so we ended up going to mexico for three days we were like why don't we just buy a place here because we rented out this airbnb it was three bedroom it had an elevator it was a condo right across from the beach just south of el camilian like the nice part of playa del carmen it had a pool it had a hot tub right across from the beach just south of el camilien like the nice part of playa del carmen it had a pool it had a hot tub i was like good lord i wonder how much

this place is and we looked into it was like 95 000 us wow did you buy it maybe that instead of arizona yeah did you actually buy it or no i mean no i didn't buy it because i my friend and i were like what if we just split this like you know we can book out when we want to use it hell we could let our friends stay here for free if they wanted to and then just hire some property manager down here to you know make sure it's clean i mean you rent that out like one weekend a month and you're making money or at least breaking even yeah it was shocking although we i started to go down the route of how do i buy property in Mexico? And it was just very confusing.

And I was like, not worth the hassle of trying to read this internet article. Yeah, it'd be interesting. Yeah, maybe. I imagine it's a different market, but I can't be too crazy still down there. I imagine it's still within the same ballpark. It's not like what's happened in the States.

That's the real marketing move. I'll talk to read about this. So four for four bets, birds, what you do is company wide by one of these places. And then you can give away like, not only if you, if you use code Noonan at four for four,

or you get the bets, birds package, you know, not only do you get the package, you get entered to win this like week long trip to our place in Mexico or something. Yeah, I love it. We gather the golf. We do these.

Paige Sporanek does a lot of advertising and stuff for us. We have rounds of golf with Paige periodically. I bet you that's cheap. Paige? Yeah, it's super cheap. We went around with Paigeige in mexico uh not bad yeah poor play with play with pat ryan and feinberg yeah that'd be great yeah man poor paige i i don't know how much she reads the uh the comments but man this is a tough it is tough dude no matter

what's posted it's a it's an interesting trade-off like especially being at the top of your game with something like that where just the fucking weirdos on the internet she leans into it so she's aware she knows what she's doing she knows that she's yeah and she i think does a great job at like rolling with it and you know even having some fun with it but like man it's just some of the guys just try to think about being on the other side and thinking about like what do you think is the outcome here like what's it just you look nothing but like just a creep right there's nothing that looks good we're seeing like yeah you know what i've never heard that before i'm gonna dm you back because that was the most creative way for you to say something completely offensive that i've ever

heard uh it just is. It's absolutely wild. So, hey, guys, shoot your shot. She'll roll with it. I think she does something on Instagram where she shares one a week and just kind of talks about it, which is pretty funny, too. So, yeah, good for Paige. Yeah. She rolls with it, though. She rolls with it.

It's pretty funny. I mean, she's a good sport about it, even though she definitely does not have to be. No. The Bettsperts of VMX go hey you know our director of uh everything luis is right down in that neighborhood i'm sure he can help uh facilitate the transaction for us he probably doesn't have to redefine print knows what that's like he just bought a new place anyway he was building a new place so uh things are good luis is in mexico yeah i didn't know that yeah yeah i thought i thought you guys all like lived in chicago a lot of us do yeah connor and i and reed but yeah uh he was in

i think he went to school in texas i think he went to a m but then he's back and forth between texas and now he's yeah he's living up living his best life on the beach yeah i mean i mean maybe i should just get a place like the care like well what's one with the lowest tax rate i'll say that mayo media operates out of there since I can't do Delaware. That's where all the offshore books, right? They're in Costa Rica. Yeah. There you go.

Something there. I like the idea of went around with Mayo Feinberg. Now that Feinberg's back on the men's, you can get out there and swing the sticks again, taking the kids to Disney, get him out on the golf course. Love to do that sometimes. All right, Pat, where can everyone find your stuff? At the PME, Mayo Media Network on YouTube, Pat Mayo Experience on

your podcast. If you have the internet, you can find it. Not super hard. Connor, more props from you. Coming out, everything's trickling out here. I'm sure you'll fire a few more here. Back, you're not in uh florida uh this week so you're probably not a light card for you yeah and i'll be going hard here probably in the next hour or so get out a couple more props uh you know start cleaning the house getting ready to you know uh have some people over a little halloween shindig there you know with the World Series going on, gamble, bet, drink, you know, everything great.

Love it. Again, I'm going to tell Maggie that she reminds me of Laurel, and it's a compliment. So, all right, 444.com slash plans, $59 for access to everything on the site, guys. It is the best deal out there. Again, only good through the holiday, through Monday. Take advantage. Or if you want to get it for just $20 through Thrive, ThriveFantasy.com. Again, promo code 444.

Check it out. So before Pat and Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next week. Thanks, everyone.