Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 9 2023 Player PROP BETS

Episode Date: November 3, 2023

Welcome to our comprehensive guide for NFL Week 9 of 2023! Dive deep into the top player prop bets, expertly analyzed and handpicked by seasoned bettors. Discover the predictions and odds that have the sports world buzzing. This week, we feature insights on top NFL stars like Dalton Kincaid and share our favorite player props to bet.Whether you're a betting novice or a seasoned pro, this video is a must-watch to elevate your game. Don't miss out on the latest trends and tips for Week 9 NFL prop bets. Subscribe now and stay ahead of the curve! Timestamps:0:00 Intro5:13 Jeff Wilson Week 9 Player Prop Bet7:45 CeeDee Lamb Prop Bet10:32 Zach Charbonnet Player Prop Bet Week 914:25 Bengals vs Bills Prop Bets17:04 Justin Watson Week 9 Player Prop Bet21:14 NFL Week 9 Same Game Parlay Bet28:47 Brandon Powell Week 9 Prop Bet32:45 Garrett Wilson Bet35:58 Jaren Hall Week 9 NFL Prop Bet44:15 Tackle Props49:59 Audience Questions1:06:37 OutroSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow John on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/sloprulesVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

Hello and welcome to Move the Line, the prop drop show presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan, back to talk about the best way, the most profitable way to bet on NFL football, and that is through player props. Live here, 2 p.m. Eastern, every Friday on our 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel, giving out our favorite player props and taking your questions. So if you're hanging out with us now on YouTube, jump in the chat, let us know what your favorite Week 9 look is,

any thoughts on a play, something you want our take on, maybe something's not on the board, anything like that, jump in the chat let us know what your favorite week nine look is any thoughts on a play something you want our uh take on maybe something's not on the board anything like that jump in the chat we'll try to get to as many as possible at the end of the show uh joining us on youtube is the best way to get the same number the same price on these props for sure if you prefer the podcast version should be in your feed later on friday evening subscribe to both so you don't miss a show free content supporting it with thumbs up like subscribe all those things goes a long way in in your feed later on Friday evening. Subscribe to both so you don't miss a show. It's free content, supporting it with thumbs up, like, subscribe. All those things goes a long way in helping us bring you the very best content and tools in the industry.

So take a second and do that for us. We appreciate it very much. Joining me here as always, Connor Allen, who is on a heater, doing really well right now. Connor, I'm sure you just feel like it doesn't matter what we're firing at. We're just pissing gold right now, Connor. I'm sure you just feel like it doesn't matter what we're firing out. We're just, we're just pissing gold right now. Yeah. And we're going to keep the run in that this week with our hot take. I got a pretty, I think you probably know what we're going to hit on, but I got some pretty milky ones. I'm excited to talk about. I guess the heater did kind of come down a little bit with Najee

Harris having his longest run of the season last week and busting our under, but you know, that's what you get for betting unders on island games. Yeah, that's okay. I think good process. I know that you're, like, waiting for a Najee under every week. So it's going to come eventually. The number's not moving. It's been, like, mid-40s, upper 40s every week.

So good for Najee. Kind of finally had a productive game. Obviously, joining us here as always gentlemen from odds jam you can find them on twitter at slop rules none other than john high slop himself slop how we doing today i'm just living the dream guys living the dream don't tell me an under loss connor did it you don't say right and i got i got literally an under today that is going to blow your mind. I think you might – if you don't log off, I'll be happy.

That's like a win if you don't log off mid-show. What are you going to take somebody under one and a half receptions? It's close. Under a half of a catch. Yeah, I would not be surprised. Yeah. Reminder, this is our second episode of Move Align each week. This is Prop Drop on Friday's Game Pre previews with clark uh connor and myself uh 3 p.m eastern uh again on wednesdays again if you subscribe to the podcast feed or here on youtube on four for four bets you will be able to get

notifications for both of those shows oh we had a really interesting conversation about the four elite games this week it's a very interesting slate we have four fantastic games. It's very nice that they're all broken out too, like, cause we have the Germany game. We have an early window game that we have a late window game and then we have a Sunday nighter.

And so, you know, we have really excellent football all throughout the day, even though the rest of the slate is mixed in with a bunch of just second and third string quarterbacks, a lot of unknowns and some injuries and just the absolute mass. But luckily, hopefully, you know, if we at least get maybe two of those games live up to the billing here, we should be in for a pretty entertaining week. I want to remind folks before we jump into week nine's plays,

the betting subscription at 444 is your access to get all the official stuff that Connor and I and Sharp Clark push out every week. The betting sub, even if you like to do other things football-wise, the betting sub gets you access to all that we have on the site. So articles, tools, rankings, projections, if you're still playing DFS, all the stuff that Daigle and TJ do on the DFS side, you get access to that too. You get access to all of us via the Discord as well. So you want to ask us, start sick questions.

You want to talk to us about bets all that stuff uh especially on the betting side i could speak to that very confidently connor and i are in there all the time uh we love our community in there is a chance to uh talk to us and bounce things off that's also again like where all the official plays are pushed through so your best chance to get the numbers right away we send an alert letting you know that we're about to make a play like what's the best book what what team is it, and give you access to. We both push the play out before we even bet it ourselves. So we're trying to give you as much time as possible to be able to get down

on this. 444.com slash plans is massively discounted because we're already into week nine. That's like $124. And that'll take you through the end of football season into February. That gets you everything too. So like we're betting NBA. That gets you all those picks too.

You can use promo code prop drop for another 25% off of that. So like you're under a hundred bucks here, basically betting with us through the end of February. So, I mean, just an insane deal. Definitely check that out. If you have any questions, let us know. But yeah, live lines, Connor, no stale bread week nine. Again, like we said, focusing on making sure people can get these lines.

Floor is yours, my friend. Let's get started with week nine. Yeah, I appreciate it. I'm going to start us off. So today, today we got a low over and a low under. So we're going to start off with our low over and we're going to start off with Jeff Wilson over 16 and a half rushing yards against the chiefs here. Um, I love this because coming into last season, we saw Jeff Wilson come in and out touch where

he mostered in the majority of the games. Now this, this season, he always got injured, started the season slow, uh, came off. I are, didn't really do much. Now this, this season, he obviously got injured, started the season slow, uh, came off IR, didn't really do much. Then last week he saw five carries, uh, just a few, uh, few less than Raheem Mostert. And now we get a matchup here where Raheem Mostert has been banged up kind of all week was in and off the injury report and a great match against his chiefs run defense, who has not been playing very well. Their past evens has been, you know, top three in most metrics, really good in pressure rate. And I could see Miami here skewing a little bit run heavy compared to some of their other rates, allowing Jeff Wilson an opportunity to get six, seven carries against their run defense right now

that's allowing four and a half yards per carry to opposing running backs, breaks bottom 10 in run to EPA per play as well. Our projections and other projections have them like mid 20s to 30. And so we're getting at 16 and a half here. I like this over. You can also play 25 plus rushing yards. And that's like plus 200 Caesars. Because I think there's a legit chance of these two move closer and closer to each other throughout the season, especially if Jeff Wilson keeps playing well, which played well last week.

So that's my first play a little bit gross, but at least it's an over, right? Right. Slop. Yeah. I mean, you had me at over.

I'm going to try to lock it in right now it's a simple man yeah it doesn't seem like uh nine three in the morning guys like that's no better time today to bet an over it's true i mean you're probably gonna be still sleeping when he's hit when he's already hit the over so you're just gonna wake up and have money in your account if there's a chance i would be, but actually I got kids. There's no chance I'm in bed. Yeah, you're not going to be sleeping. The West Coast is for sure.

Yeah. Yeah, that's rough in the West Coast. I'm sure they don't mind it when it's Titans, Jags, or whatever it is. But Chiefs, Dolphins, that's tough. Like you got to stay in Saturday night. You got to make sure you get yourself up early. That's a little bit of a trickier one. So, yeah, I like it, Connor.

I think that I had it written down. I wanted to look into it a little bit. Threshold is pretty low there. So I like it quite a bit. I think it's just up in pace in that game and a lot of opportunities that make a lot of sense, especially if the Dolphins are getting healthy. If Armstead ends up being cleared eventually there too. That could be really nice. So slop,

what do you got? What's your first one here for week nine? All right. So I got this earlier this morning. It's still good now though. A CD lamb 80 plus receiving yards. That's minus one Oh five at draft Kings. Now it's minus one Oh eight at Vandal. It's plus one 10 this morning. so it's a little bit cooler. But it's still bettable. I think he's going to go up. I think him and Dak had some sort of talk or something after the 49ers game

because he just gets peppered with targets at this point. It's been a buck 17. It's only been two games, but, I mean, just watching those two games, just watch them. You'll see what I mean. It's literally like every time. You're not even wondering where the ball is going. It's probably going two games, but I mean, just watching those two games, just watch them. You'll see what I mean. It's literally like every time you're not even wondering where the ball's going. It's probably going to CeeDee Lamb.

I figure they get behind in this game. Even if they don't, I think we're good because the Eagles stop everyone from running. I think they've allowed the fewest rushing yards from running backs in the entire NFL. They're a pass funnel, and to be honest with you, they can't cover receivers. I think

they're third worst in yards to receiver position. So that's where you go with the ball. Don't overcomplicate it. CeeDee Lamb. It's easy. Connor, we talked about this in the matchup show, just talking about how the Eagles do a really good job of kind of making you play with one hand tied behind your back, and that was going to lean heavily on Dak for them to have some success here. So Dak stuff is very interesting to me as well, attempts, completions. But you want to just do that through CD.

That makes a ton of sense to me as well. What are your thoughts on this one? Yeah, that's probably my favorite way to play an over if you're going to play it here, especially if this game gets a little hot, like starts getting going. I think that that's the one potential range of outcome here i mean cd could absolutely explode especially we saw it happen against like the jets at certain times too where like even though the matchup was tough you know like they moved them

around so much and you like kind of just ate over the middle of the field that it helped a lot so i think that's very much in the range of outcomes here as well so yeah i would definitely lean over it's not my vibe to take high receiver overs, but if I had to play something, I for sure would be into it. Shocker, right? Slop. This guy hates fun. Yeah, I know.

He's like, I was hoping it would be 42 and a half. I take the under. Yeah. I mean, I do agree that, you know, doing it that way too, you know, adding some of the alt lines, you know, taking, you know, plus money on, you know, doing it that way too, you know, adding some of the alt lines, you know, taking, you know, plus money on, you know, them exceeding, especially, you know, all twins you're starting to get into like 70 or, you know, arbitrary cutoff, like, you know, 75, 80 yards,

these like alpha receivers, like, man, just lean on them to go completely nuts. Right. We saw with CD last week too, you know, there's a lot of upside and, you know, CD going back to the well with like a buck 25 here if that is the case so i think sprinkling in layering in some of the alts i think is is probably a sharp way to do it as well so yeah i can get down on that i like it quite a bit um all right first one for me um this one's been kind of bouncing around i want to get it out first it was going to be my last one but i want to make sure we get it before it moves um did you guys see that the the presser today uh with p

carroll who is like absolutely he is gushing about zach charbonnet um i'm going to play zach charbonnet over 32 and a half combined rushing and receiving um you know like just again i don't want to over reactact to coach people. Like Charbonnet shifted into a workload that I'm not sure is sticky, but perhaps. Last week, 56% of the snaps. He'd only topped 28% snap share once all season until last week when he went out and doubled it. Kenneth Walker only 44% of the snaps.

Walker was limited coming into the week with a calf injury. Played pretty well, but Charbonnet really ate into it. Even on limited touches, Charbonnet has topped us in three of six games this season. Now all of a sudden we have a shot where he's not playing 28%, 30% of the snaps. He might be playing 45%, 55%. I like it quite a bit. If you look here early too, to 100 of the long down and distance last week 100 of the two minute drill stuff so i considered charbonnet over 10 and a half receiving

yards that's so dicey um you know we again he could get two three you know targets here and nine yards and all of a sudden you know the handicap could be okay because last week he did on the ground alone, five carries 53 yards against Cleveland. He's had some pretty splashy runs this season too. If you look among the 65 qualifying backs, he's third and explosive run rate 19th and missed tackles forced ninth in yards after contact per attempt. So he's got a little bit of juice on the ground.

Actually Baltimore decent, obviously defensively, but they missed tackles at a pretty high rate and they've given up some pretty consistent explosive plays too. So again, 32 and a half combined rushing and receiving. I think you could do it in either bucket and recover both here a little bit. So Connor, what are your thoughts on Charbonnet? No, I like that.

My take, of course, on this initially was to try and grab the Kenneth Walker under. And you know, so it's like the, the reverse of it because that's just how my brain is wired. And that opened at 16 and a half on FanDuel. So I was waiting for more outs. And of course I literally, you know, look away for five seconds. It's opened at like 52 on DK and it's sitting at like 51. So that's too low for me, honestly, because I think Kenneth will probably still be the lead guy, but I think your reader is right here. The Charbonnet is probably going to see more work, uh, and that he's probably gonna be used, continue to be used in the passing game here. So I know our, our buddy Dalton Cates also played, uh, the rushing prop of this. That's probably why you saw it bump up a

little bit. Um, but yeah, I, I like it. I think that it's, I, I am, I was hoping honestly, we'd get a better matchup for this because then you could just like ladder Charbonnet to the moon because I mean, the, this, the ceiling is really high, especially with a little bit better matchup for this is because then you could just like ladder Charbonnet to the moon because for sure I mean this the ceiling is really high especially with a little bit better matchup yeah but we would have said that last week too going into the Cleveland matchup and he ran for you know 53 on five carries so um yeah but you make a good point I mean obviously I you know wish you wasn't Baltimore but when I looked at some of the Baltimore stuff too I was like okay well you know they're not exactly like absolutely locking everyone down like you can you can get out there a little bit on them so and you know offensive line getting healthy in seattle too uh any thoughts there slop numbers low enough for me to go over uh is lockett and

metcalf are they gonna play so yeah i think they both should be good but then that's a receiver thing so they just sit you know what i mean're on full practice today, and now they're back. Yeah, we just get more Jake Bobo in our life. But, yeah, I think practice – I looked, and I saw that Kenneth Walker's off, you know, the injury report too, which is fine. Again, like I like Kenneth Walker. We've been betting Kenneth Walker, you know, longest rush, all those things. I just think Charbonnet is going to start to eat into it a little bit here.

So, yeah, low threshold, no problem. So, all right, let's get spicy here, Connor. Let's go same game parlay. Let's go alts. Let's get into some bigger numbers. I'm curious to see if we're, you know, kind of attacking some of the same spots or similar spots here, but give you the floor here for the, you know,

off the board stuff here for week nine. Yeah, so I think this Bengals and Bill's game is going to be wild. So that's the game that I'm attacking here. Back to the well with Sunday night football. So my hot take officially is going to be that they score more than 60 points. Bill's defense playing pretty bad as of late. You know, they lost Matt Milano, Daquan Jones. They were bottom three in EPA per play allowed, 28th in success rate. That's despite playing against the Jags, Bucks, Milano, Daquan Jones. They were bottom three in EPA per play allowed, 28th in success rate. That's despite playing against the Jags, Bucks, Giants, and Patriots. So in this spot, I did a little five-leg,

same-game parlay with our sponsor, FanDuel. And I mean, I'm excited about this because first off, I think that the Bengals are going to have a lot of offensive success, and I think that the Bills should be able to push back plenty. So I'm taking over 16.5 total points. And then I already played this, but I think T T Higgins here is in a fantastic spot. Um, I played his over originally, but I also laddered it up to a hundred because he, we have like two factors working here with his line is super low. So like his line was only 47 and a half. I played a hundred plus because I think this matchup is fantastic. And Higgins was not healthy and then came out of the buy and played like close to 70% of the snaps.

His usage is going to keep seeing more and more. So I played Higgins and chase a hundred plus burrow three fit plus or three 50 plus then Dalton Kincaid 60 plus receiving yards, 180 to one. So, I mean, again, this game starts popping off, you know, like we're talking about a good way to get rich here. You know, like this is like for real. Uh, I mean, we, I know we have said this before, but I feel like I'm feeling good about this one. I, for those of you who don't know, I'm coming off of a fake snow game, Mac parlay where

I don't know, single player. And I hit, you know, the nuts, it was like 50 to win three grand. So 50 to win, I don't know. It was like 10 grand. Maybe, I don't know. I think that's what I got on this one. So, you know, the nuts. It was like 50 to win three grand. So 50 to win, I don't know, it was like 10 grand. Maybe, I don't know. I think that's what I got on this one. So, you know, let's ride. Let's ride. I love it.

I'm going to hang out in this game too, for sure. I think it's a great spot to be in. And I like that you, I go, I'm a little bit more conservative, but I love the fact that you're like, you're just starting with over 60. You know, the game total, it moved from 46 and a half. It's up to 49 and a half. Connor's like, yeah, we're just skipping the 50s.

Over 60. First leg of my same game parlay. How many legs? Seven legs? Six legs? No, five legs. Five legs. Five.

Five. Just five. Yeah, no, we're keeping it real. We're keeping it real. Yeah. So I like it. I like we're swinging for the fences. We're keeping it real. We're keeping it real. Yeah. So I like it. I like we're swinging for the fences. All right, Slop, floor is yours, sir.

Where are we going? All right. I feel like I'm at like the children's table after that. I have one guy, one wrong ladder. But it's Justin Watson of the Chiefs. He's back now. And I don't know if you guys saw this, but at FanDuel, you can do 25-plus receiving yards plus 126.

You can do 40-plus at plus 260 or 50-plus at plus 390. Here's the thing. He's been on the field. He's been catching balls. Sky Moore, I think his stock is down. I think Watson only played like 37% of snaps last week, 2 for 42. Back on the 8th against Minnesota, 2 for 56. He's the downfield guy.

He's got another 2 for 51 game, 3 for 62, 2 for 45. They should be in a baby shootout with the Dolphins and hopefully we can get there. I'm not sure that we're going to get there, but if we do, I don't know how this guy does it because they don't have real receiving options other than the rookie, the Rice kid, and then obviously Kelsey. But I mean, not for for nothing but Justin Watson kind of looks like Kelsey when you got a 300 pound dude chasing you I don't know how many times I bet Kelsey and Watson caught a pass I got excited and I was like wait that's not Kelsey that's Watson but I think that works for a favor here 40 plus yards feels so easy I'd say even 50 if you want to get wild you can do 60

yards which he's done this season that's's going to bring you to plus 580. The cool part is he doesn't need to catch a lot of balls to get there because his A-dot's so big. Yeah, he's deep, deep down the field. Connor, we often mock MVS and Watson for basically their calisthenics out there. They're basically running wind sprints. What are your thoughts on this one from Slop? Yeah. I mean, those guys just stink. Like, I don't know how else to say it. They're just bad at football. So, you know, you're betting on a guy

who's I think pretty good at football. He was also injured. And then now like before that he was playing like 50, 60% of the snaps kind of in line with MBS. Then we saw rice grow. I mean, I imagine that probably by the end of the year, we're going to be seeing, I would assume Rishi Rice playing 60 plus percent of the snaps and then Justin Watson playing 60 plus percent of snaps. And then MBS probably just running wind sprints, Sky Moore mixing it in the slot. That's probably what I would guess we'll see towards the end of the season. And I think we'll get there eventually. Have you thought about doing any of those like anti-correlation parlays with Justin Watson? I don't really know why I thought of that. Have you seen those in the Fsm chat slot so it's like you take so you

take under receptions so you take like under two and a half receptions or one and a half receptions but then over on the yards and so it it like boosts the odds like an insane amount so it's like a receptions number on this guy yeah it's not up yet but i'll start looking for those that actually i used to like doing the um over and passing yards but under for the game like those type things you get wild results like that yeah so it's the same thing i think it was like maybe it was amico or dalton or someone did christian watson and it was like under three receptions and over 80 yards and it was like 100 to one or like 50 to one it was like crazy high numbers for like a deep threat guy who's gonna do exactly what they're doing anyways like they're not gonna get a bunch of targets it's just gonna

be like two or three deep ones and so the they're just like i mean they're pricing it i think incorrectly i would guess i mean technically by their numbers they're pricing it correctly but like i don't think it's priced correctly, especially for certain players like Justin Watson. I think it's a great example. Yeah. Christian Watson. He's not going to get targeted. You know what I mean?

He's going to, you're going to see your guy get three targets at the most. Just hopefully we get one that goes for 40 yards. Again, if you want to start baby 25, that's like basically taking his longest reception 25 plus yards. You know what I mean? But you'd get plus 126. And then now you're hoping to go for 40. Yeah. Yeah, I like it.

It's the kind of game I think. Yeah, I can get there. I'm going to go to the same game as Connor. I'm going to play it very differently. I'm going to take, like Slop said, I am at the kids' table comparatively. I'm not starting with the 60-point total. I respect it, though. I mean, I love the crap out of that game.

We talked about it on the show. Like, I'm big on the Bengals. Give me the Bengals, anything under three in that spot. I love the total. It's climbed out a little bit now. But I'm going to go a little conservative. I'm going to play the first two pieces of this by themselves. Same game parlay.

Give me Joe Burrow. Give me Josh Allen. Both to throw 250 yards. Plus 136 on Caesars. Plus 136? Plus 136 on Caesars. I priced it out everywhere. Caesars is the best that we could find.

Now, again, that's about i think alan is like 275 burrows like 265 so we're basically just pulling back a little bit on their their normal numbers um you know again just if this game is is even sniffing what connor's talking about uh plus 144 on caesars there we go sam look at that um we'll absolutely love it. That's a fantastic start. Now I'm going to build off of that. I'm going to build off of it conservatively still. But, again, we're bringing the thresholds down. If we're doing this, these guys are getting there 250-plus.

Obviously, Jamar Chase is massively involved. You can do whatever you want. Let's just do 80-plus on Jamar Chase, right? That's below his prop. First half. First half. Stephon Diggs, 80-plus. I mean, right? That's below his prop. First half. First half. Stephon Diggs, 80-plus. I mean, look, it's happened.

He's massively involved in this game. Dalton Kincaid, 40-plus. Connor and I played Dalton Kincaid yesterday, 34-and-a-half, Connor. I mean, like, nuts. 40-plus, give me that for sure. Cincinnati has been terrible against tight ends this season too we didn't factor that into our handicap just love dalton kinkade and the workload um so 40 plus on kinkade i think there might be something here with gabe davis um workload change

more schemes layups for gabe davis last week i don't think he's necessarily getting 12 targets again but i like that they were using him in a way that changed it with this 11 personnel shift. He's basically used as like Dawson Knox, you know, bunched up often with Kincaid again, significantly lower a dot. They scheme some stuff to him.

His first read targets were up. We're only going to go 50 yards on Gabe Davis. So again, these are all very low thresholds. I'm going to get one and a half touchdowns from each of these bozos at quarterback two. That's also juiced up. They're like minus 180, minus 160 to throw over one and a half touchdowns. So again, all of these are basically below fair market value in terms of their odds. The only number that I have that's basically spot on on the market, Josh Allen over 27 and a half rushing yards um i'm buying a little

bit into this like allen running a little bit more as the season gets a little bit closer they need them a little bit they've had some issues here um just kind of moving the football on the ground consistently we saw a little bit more of that last week i think allen gets back to running um again i think it's like 27 and a half um on fanduel there's some 30 and a half out there that is a seven legger um and again we were conservative we're at plus 5300 on fanduel so we're not even getting that wonky uh again we have a lot of legs but um you know we we need uh you know alan to spread it out a little bit i didn't get any t higgins maybe you want to add some t higgins you could do that uh whatever you want to do here uh to add to add to it. But I think 53 plus 5,300

is good enough to get some of my money. Uh, definitely playing the borough. I've already played that for our subscribers borough and Allen two 50 plus plus one 44 on seizures. Great, great, great number. So, uh, Connor, am I too much of a wimp? Um, I think that I prefer playing like four or five leggers with like higher thresholds and just like mixing up the players like putting in like and i get not banned from fanduel but they they put my max to zero sometimes on these parlays because so i started like going and then i just like started mixing all the players around so it'd be like burrow 300 plus you know higgins 100 plus and then like something else and then i just like all of them up because I don't know.

I feel like your approach is way more safe, but it's so many more legs versus like mine is like way higher. Two more legs. You had five. Yeah. Two legs is a big deal. Yeah, no, it's fair. Yeah. It's the, the, you know, the touchdowns were the one I added late. I'm again, if we're getting to 60 points, Connor, these guys have to throw for two touchdowns each. Yep. Someone's got to throw touchdowns were the one I added late. If we're getting to 60 points, Connor, these guys have to throw for two touchdowns each.

Yep, someone's got to throw touchdowns. Well, okay, how about this, though? If you're getting all those to hit, you're probably getting some way higher guys. You're missing out on a 501 hit here if Burrow throws for 350. I'm in to throw Khalil Shakir in here a little bit or you know something like we could do that too but i like shakir what he did last week like two and a half receptions like

even money it's like a normal bet throw that in there we're almost at 101 i don't even know what to think about shakir you like shakir yeah his usage was insane last week but i'm scared of him because that was just out of nowhere. And you're like, dude, are they going to pull the rug out when I bet? I had Cade last week, and I was just like, dude, what is happening right now? The first – I think he had like three receptions before Cade got anything. Yeah. I was like, uh-oh.

But obviously he got home. But still, that was scary for a second. All of it coincides with like an injury and the shift in like formation and utilization so it's not like shakir spiked in like a random week they all of a sudden were doing you know get away from 12 they got into a little bit more 11 shakir's kind of moved ahead of dionte hardy like there's a few things kind of happening there where it makes me feel like all right that's you know you'd like to see it one more week but also the same time if you're waiting to see it one more week with everyone else you missed the two and a half at you know minus 110 right so that's the issue either way it's hot you know i i i approve of any and all overs in this game so all you know what the reality is

is all of them are hidden we're all going to be you know taking them to the bank anyways so uh you know we'll see how it goes. I'm confident though. Easy. I just need to add the 60 and then feel good about it. Yeah. I mean, part of it too, is the handicap of the game.

I think that the bills are a problem defensively. As you touched on, we've talked about it a little bit on the other show. Like they have been real bad losing. You lose basically your best player at all three levels that catches up to you. They haven't played anyone to really punish them for that patriots giants um and what do we have last week bucks yeah that happened in the middle of the jags game um so now all of a sudden we have burrow healthy absolutely boat

race the niners i just think this is a spot where um you know we start to see the bills have to play catch up that That really works for fantasy and betting overs when Josh Allen is forced to kind of keep his foot in the gas for four quarters. So want to be involved in, in a pro bills, offensive stuff here. Yeah. I think that it's important to understand when you have spots where you think that they're like the market is just not fully captured, like capturing the upside in the game. And I think this is one of those spots. So like, I know people talk about same game parlays and parlays being fishy. Like, I just don't really think that's the case here because there's so much upside with

a lot of these guys. Kincaid specifically, I think the Bengals passing game specifically points, like there are so many different ways you can play it that like, I don't think that's encapsulated at all. So, you know, feel free to get a little bit crazy, I think, because some combination of these is going to lead to some like insane parlay payout. I'm just not sure which one it's going to be. All right. Connor, we'll kick it back to you. Your third play again,

going to be a little less spicy, but probably not. Cause I think this is, I believe you teetered us up. We have a low under here slop. So, you know, grab your ankles. Let's see what happens. Come in here. All right. We're got a time to shake the world again here. We're going to go with Brandon Powell under 19 and a half receiving yards. Absolute banger here. We got a guy starting named Jaron Hall, a rookie from BYU fifth round pick the Vikings picked. Um, I don't think that he's very good at football. And then on top

of that, we're going to see him, Brandon Powell, basically being the fourth, maybe fifth receiving option here, because if you look, just look at the box scores, you're like, Oh, well, he's been crushing, you know, like all the, the chart bros and all the people only looking at like, you know, the charts are like, Oh, well, he's gone over this number. Basically every game, the reality is he had zero catches at halftime against San Francisco, and then Jordan Addison gets hurt, and he gets targeted like five straight times after Jordan Addison gets hurt. Brandon Powell is a nobody.

I mean, he is like literally barely plays. He was like 50% snap rate last week, and he's like fourth, fifth in target order. And now you have Brandon Powell being thrown to by Jaron Hall in a game against the Falcons, who are literally just going to do nothing but milk the clock with Taylor Heineke, who are not going to be that aggressive. And then, you know, the Vikings on their end, I think are going to run the ball a ton too.

So it's going to be like limited volume, you know, limited, basically everything, limited efficiency. So I don't know. I thought this was a bit too high. I thought we'd see like 14, 15 receiving yards. I get, obviously you could lose this on one play, but his average at the target, he plays a lot in the slot. His average at the target is like eight yards. So it's like, it's not like

they're gunning downfield and he's like some outside guy running like wind sprints. Like he's running and sitting in zones, but you also have TJ Hawkinson doing the same thing. So of course you're going to throw it to TJ instead of him. So I don't know. I know this is not for everyone. I understand that, but a little low under threshold here. I think Slop started watching a show on Netflix on his phone in the middle of that one. I'm not sure. What do you think?

Powell under 19 and a half slop. You're muted. It was that bad. He rage. He rage at the mute button. He rage muted. I can't unmute him. Their mic is not connected.

Oh man. This is, it took him so bad. All right. I didn't want you to hear my show on Netflix. No, but I referenced the Connor Allen unders, and that's definitely one of them where you take a very low number and just take it under like an absolute psycho.

But that one's not that crazy. I don't think Brandon Powell is getting – I would not take this over. Put not that crazy. I don't think Brandon Powell is getting – I would not take this over. Put it that way. I always think of it like this. Would I take this over? It's like, God, no. Just for every reason he mentioned, he's right.

Brandon Powell is not involved in that offense. And then throwing – Jaron Hall is throwing to him. Come on. I love it. That was a rare dub. Rare W on an under for me. I'll take it. Yeah, I did not think we were getting a dub. Rare W on an under for me. I'll take it.

Yeah, I did not think we were getting a slop stamp of approval on an under. I didn't approve it. I didn't approve it. I'm just saying I get it. I'm not going to do that. I can totally understand why you would. That's a smart move. Yeah.

I like the breakdown, Connor. Not for me. I do not have the stomach for that. God, that is awful. What a painful – like you can't watch that game. There's no shot. I mean, don't you watch that game anyways? What a terrible game.

This is going to be a horrible game. I know. Every time you're out for a route, you're like, oh, man, please no. Don't throw it down. Yeah. He tossed it up. Tipped. Powell catches it off throw it down. Yeah. He tosses it up, tips, Powell catches it off the deflection.

Yeah. Five yards, he's like, what are we doing? Yeah. Again, you know, Carter's pushing me to bet more tackle unders. I'm like,

you know, some of these guys are on the field like every play. Like every time I see him on the field, I'm like, oh gosh, get off the field. Like,

get out of there. You know, like, you know, I can't, I can't, you know, I'm not afraid of there you know like you know i can't i can't you know i'm not afraid of an under but you know some of them these are not for me so uh slop back to you what is your third play here for the week all right so we're gonna go to monday night think about a very gross over but um what about garrett wilson over five and5 receptions? And that's like plus 105 right now at FanDuel.

Everybody else has 4.5. I think it goes to 5. The other books, though, most of them don't have alt receptions. So there is that. But I would look at alt receptions for this guy. But since I'm getting plus money anyways at 6, I'll take that. In the last four games, listen to his targets. 14, 7, 12, 13. He's like the only guy they throw to. They got the Chargers.

I know it's Zach Wilson throwing the ball, but if you give him 15 times to throw at a guy, the guy could probably get six. You're playing the Chargers. I don't know if they're going to score too much, but I don't think the Jets are really going to be able to run on them just like anyone else. Everyone throws the ball on them. It's to the receivers. Although they're really a receiver's yards. No, but anyway, the Chargers are a receiving yards team.

But I'll take the receptions here. I'm not really afraid. I think, like I said, Gary Wilson is literally the only show in town. At some point they're going to need to throw the ball, and it's going to go to him. I like it a lot. It's really painful because it's like, you know, as you said, having overs attached to Zach Wilson is not for everyone.

But, yeah, I mean, he is absolutely dominating work there. Connors is not your jam typically. But again, there are some juicy four and a halves and then a plus money five and a half. Any thoughts to expand on what Slop had there? No, I like it. I mean, he's been a target hog. It's just the issues here.

You're getting throws from Zach Wilson, who's been, I mean, I guess he's played mean, he's just seen it. He's been a target hog. It's just the issues here. And you're getting throws from Zach Wilson, who's been, I mean, I guess he's played better than he did last year. But, you know, and this is a pretty good matchup in some senses. The Chargers defense hasn't been very good. So I expect that is, I expect that's going to be, you know, a solid look here. The more I dig into this Chargers game, like I wanted to take some unders on the Chargers pass. That looks like Josh Palmer just got announced out or is like didn't practice again today.

So basically out. But I don't know. I think that game might be kind of ugly, to be honest. Now, the more that I look at it, I was kind of excited to take the Chargers minus three to sit in like three and a half. And now I just kind of like the more I look at it, it's just kind of gross.

But I think Slop's right. I think five and a half, five plus receptions, whatever you can get a fan duel is probably a good look yeah i like it i was hoping for uh like just a nice approachable four and a half but we did not get that like you know open like four and a half at minus 160 mo spots and then uh you know we've seen some some places move out to the five and a half plus money yeah but i like it. I want to give it a stamp of approval for sure. My next one is a little gross. Let me make sure I can get it here first.

Make sure it hasn't moved. Yeah, we're still out here a little bit. So I'm going to go with a Jaron Hall over 16 and a half rushing yards. So not passing yards. We're going to go with Jaron Hall to be able to run the football a little bit. This is minus 115 on Caesars. MGM has it as well. A little bit more juice on DraftKings.

It's available pretty much anywhere that you can bet. We have a lot of questions about Hall for sure. But he is an excellent athlete and above average speed and agility if you look back at his relative athletic score from the combine back in march um i just i sent it to connor today i didn't say anything else i just sent a screenshot of uh you know jaron hall's uh clipped card from his relative athletic score uh i knew it was coming yeah so you know look i mean college rushing yards a little bit noisy right because they actually count negatively

with sacks but if you kind of peel sacks out hall averaged like 6.2 rushing attempts and a little over 33 rushing yards per game last year at byu last week came in when kirk went down against green bay oh just 11 snaps. They had two design runs in there, which is really encouraging. Now, again, I don't want to overreact to two runs on 11 snaps, but it's also like them leaning a little bit into like, all right, we know who we have. Like Kirk has less than two design runs,

and he didn't have that in any game this season. So they're leaning a little bit here too onto what their quarterback can do. So, look, they struggle to run the football. I think they're going to need to get a little bit different with what they do here offensively. They do have the league's highest play action rate. So I think you see that even more where you can like boot him out into space. He did that really well at BYU as well. Tucks and runs, you know, not uncommon for a guy to lock into his first read and then kind of panic. So I'm hoping for some like panic scrambles here as well. Tucks and runs, not uncommon for a guy to lock into his first read and then kind of panic.

So I'm hoping for some panic scrambles here as well. 16.5 is pretty low. So again, betting on the athletic profile, betting on him panicking and maybe four, five design runs, 16.5 is pretty low. His longest rush is like 9.5. So I think we get a couple of carries from this kid. I like this one quite a bit.

What's your reaction here, Connor? I kind of like it. I think it's kind of fun. I don't know why, but it just pops in my head that like the Vikings for the last two to three years have been, I don't know if it's like the right way to say exploring the quarterback market, but they've been like rumored to be around a lot of different other quarterbacks. And a lot of them were mobile. Like it was like random ones here and there i was like that doesn't really make sense considering what they have right now they never panned out obviously

so at kirk cousins but i think that there was like it's kind of like what we saw from like shanahan it was like a secret fetish that they wanted like some you know quarterback that could unlock everything else they did with their their playbook and i don't know maybe this is kind of the same thing maybe i mean two design runs off the bat It's like they had something ready to go. They understand kind of like what they, what was going on. So, uh, I mean, it kind of plays, I think almost perfectly with my power thing. If they get Jared and Hall involved running at all, I mean, he's going to throw the ball like 20 times. I mean, like he's, you know, he's like, not going to have any volume. So, uh, yeah, I think that the over here is interesting. Look,

I don't know. I mean, I would almost rather play an alt because i feel like you're either gonna be really right or probably really wrong so uh we'll see but i think you both for sure yeah yeah i like this you know uh candors in the chats uh mentioning draft kings 50 plus is plus 950 uh for for all it takes is one. Let's go. Yeah. Right? All it takes is one. Just what Connor was saying, the first thing I thought when you said two design runs on 11 snaps, I was like, they knew. That's what they had.

You know what I'm trying to say? Because they're put on the spot. They have no idea that Kirk Cudgins is about to leave the game and this kid's actually going to play. So you're kind of tipping your hand as to how you view that guy by having design runs because I'm sure they don't have a lot of design runs with Kirk Cousins. So I kind of like that 50-plus, that plus 950. I mean, what do you got to lose?

I mean, you already got a Brandon Powell under in this. Why not have a – you know what I'm saying? Jaron Holt. I'm betting it. I'm betting it's a Malt. I think this is kind of fun. That's not that ridiculous. Look at this guy on the bottom here. Hall over

one and a half touchdowns plus 1100. Bet 365. I wish I had bet 365. Russian touchdowns, I'm guessing? He could catch one somehow. I mean, what do you do with that game? You know what I mean? He could catch one somehow. But I don't know. I mean, what do you do with that game?

You know what I mean? Like, that game is horrible. So you're going to need something, and I think that's it. I think the Hall 50-plus is how I'm going to enjoy that one. There's some other bad games. Like, that one, like, Taylor Heinelor heineke like you know if he's not quarterbacking your team he can be involved in some fun games because he doesn't really give a he'll not you know he likes to run he'll push it deep down the fields um you know so

it sucks we probably don't have drake london because that'd be fun to see a little bit more ceiling from that offense but um yeah it could be kyle pitts yeah maybe a week they were just waiting for london to go down yeah kyle pitts whispers uh taylor heineke so yeah i mean i like some of the alts i think sprinkling some of the upside because again like i obviously went down the wormhole today and watched a bunch of uh jaron hall byu clips yes i did oh my god i'm like like let's see this kid if he can actually move. Let's see what happened. He was bootleg play action stuff, and all of a sudden,

his first read's not there. He's got a little Kyler in him. He's not very big. He's like six flat, but really short, quick little steps. He'll just get in the sideline and take off. I don't think he wants to get hit very much. He's trying to get out of bounds here, but he's pretty fast. Three cone, 10-yard splits for his 40.

All that stuff is elite, elite looking at his profile. So, yeah, let's lean into it here, Kevin O'Connell. Let's know what you have here. Let's not drop this kid back a bunch of times. Let's get really wonky with the offensive play calls, play action, play action, bootleg, RPOs, all that stuff. And I'm encouraged the fact that they already lead the league in play action rate.

So that's a good thing. I wish this was a primetime game. I wish that they'd Sunday night just give us this. Yeah, flex the bills and bang it up. We had a teabag last week. I mean, that wasn't that bad. Yeah, it the bills and bang it up. He had a teabag last week. I mean, that wasn't that bad. Yeah, it was terrible. He didn't get to 250, but he got 200 for me, so that helped.

Dude, he almost got to 250. Yeah, it was 230, something like that? He got somewhere, I think it was like 230-something. I mean, he was very close. He was very close. Dude, the vibe in chicago is unbelievable right now it's like so we went from like justin fields being an absolute king you know in the preseason to him being like the worst quarterback in the nfl and then we get tyson bajan teabag you know

our king come out and ball out against the raiders and everyone's like oh yeah he's the next brock purdy like they're sold like no one has any doubt in their mind and then of course he you know they get skunked by the chargers the week after and now everyone's still like no he's the next Brock Purdy. Like they're sold. Like no one has any doubt in their mind. And then of course he, you know, they get skunked by the chargers the week after. And now everyone's still like, no, he's better than Justin Fields. Like everyone's fully convinced. And I'm like, just sitting here rubbing my head. I'm like, guys, both are terrible quarterbacks. Like it's doesn't matter. Like neither is the answer. He's not Brock Purdy, you know, like it's none of that matters. And so it's great. I love being a little fly on the wall who does not have vested interest in chicago sports because some of the takes here are are pretty wild uh our guy ben here too got more i also found this out too um our boy jaron hall

went to byu was a two-sport athlete at first was playing baseball and football and then uh you know once zach allen or zach wilson left um he realized there was an opportunity to take over and win that starting quarterback job, and he gave up baseball. So, yeah, we have some color corollaries here, guys. Let's get into some of this Alt Jaron Hall stuff. 50-plus, almost 10-1. All right, too bad for Paulson. He's not here this week because this is a spot where I typically talk too much.

I don't have a lot to talk about this week. I have a little bit less to talk about. So I had some tackles that I was going to give out in the show or at least talk about in the show, and they actually popped just before. So those went out to our subscribers. They got those. One I'm going to be looking for, there's a couple that I'm going to be looking for actually.

So we have a really great spot here. Carolina is like the absolute nuts for assists. They give out, let me see here, 55.2% of the plays in Carolina result in an assist. That's 13% higher than league average. They ranked inside the top three last year in this metric as well, so it feels pretty sticky. And again, in the game of tackle props, tackles and assists are the same.

We don't care if it's a tackle or a solo. We want high assist rates unless we're in a place where they have low assist rates and we're betting solo tackles. That's why we do that. So I'm going to be looking for Frankie Luvu, linebacker for the Panthers, and Colts also play fast. Their games average the most combined snaps in the league, so we're getting volume in a place. Ricky Louvu, linebacker for the Panthers, and Colts also play fast. Their games average the most combined snaps in the league,

so we're getting volume in a place that gives us a ton of assists. So very, very good place. We have Louvu. He's 9-12 in his last two games. Probably opens at 6.5, maybe a plus money 7.5. I have him for 8.3 here. I'd be willing to chase that a little bit too. Same game on the side um you know zaire franklin leads the league in tackles the guy we love he's dealing with he left like for like a couple of plays last game he hasn't been practicing

much so i don't know what his status is love him if he's playing and we got like he's off the injury report on friday kind of a thing if not maybe with shaq leonard or Julian Blackman, who was there at box safety, who has been a little quiet as of late, but he's like 60%, 65% of his snaps in the box. He'd probably be like five and a half, maybe six and a half plus money in the spot. So really just want to focus on some Carolina indie stuff that we can take advantage of if we get some of those plays. Sacks are weak. It's not a great week for sacks.

TJ Watt was a great play last night. Got that sack out of the way real early uh wish we got ritter because some of the minnesota stuff would be good and ritter's has been sacked a ton takes a ton of sacks per drop back but max crosby is uh worth laying some juice on crosby i think over uh 0.75 sacks, like minus 150 on DraftKings. So a little rich, but he's been incredible. Daniel Jones actually passed. He didn't play. Sam Howell had a good game last week. Daniel Jones now leads the league in pressure to sack rate, 31%. So Danny Jones going down in heaps with a bad neck.

I don't think he wants to hang in there. He sees Max coming at him. He's going to fold like a cheap shirt and let Max just tap him down for a sack. So I'm going to lay some juice on Max Crosby getting a sack in this one. But that's all I got for tackles and sacks. You want the actual tackles? You'll probably have another 10 or so. We already got five.

So we'll probably have another five or six at least. Get the betting sub. Take advantage. Jump in and come hang with us in Discord. So that's all I got for a defensive side this week. That's kind of short. Honestly, it's like, we don't have Paul snagging you on either. Yeah. I don't know where he's at.

Did you join his show and troll his show this week or no, I was in the chat for a little bit, but you know, towards the end. Yeah. A little bit, just a little of the beginning, a little of the ends. I had a couple dialed up and I'm like, you know what? I'll just, I'll hit them directly offline because, you know, sometimes there's a lot of people in that chat. Paulson, you know, he's like the grandfather. Yeah, the people in that chat are really nice.

Like, you know, I love our listeners, but, you know, we get a little edgy out here, you know, in the betting streets and the fantasy streets is a little bit too much Kumbaya going on, you know, all the time. So I was saying like, I think I ripped, uh,

cause their, their show is like two hours, like two and a half hours normally. And they went for like 50 minutes this time. And I'm like, this is bullshit. You know, like where's the rest of the show?

You know, like I paid for way more, obviously it's a free show, but you know, and then people in the chat were like, Oh, thank you guys. Like really appreciate your time.

And I'm like, you know, whatever, piss off. This is bullshit. You know, yeah then people in the chat were like, oh, thank you guys. Like, really appreciate your time. And I'm like, you know, whatever. Piss off. This is bullshit. You know, the fantasy guys. It's different. Yeah. Like you go on those shows. It's just a different crowd.

You're like, what is happening right now? Like, why is everybody so nice? Like, I want to hear someone say, hey, your bet sucks. You know what I mean? That's how you get the conversation started. But yeah, I mean, that's what's how you get the conversation started but yeah i mean that's what uh that's what mayo used to tell me last year he's like yeah i absolutely hate your bet you know he would just tell me and i'm like yeah yeah yeah he then you get to learn though

that's when the conversation starts like remember that line in dan mcguire he says like you think we're fighting i think we're finally talking it's like that you know like it's literally like now we get to talk about it as soon as you say it sucks yeah i had a few things dialed up i didn't i didn't fire him because i you know i didn't think it was the right audience and i'm looking in the chat and yeah i did give daigle a heads up that i was going to be doing that so i felt like i was covered there i thought maybe i should have given sal a heads up to producing that show he sees me coming there you know my youtube logo too is like the

four for four football so like i thought that i was a bad representation of the brand they're like i am from four for four with the four for four logo i'm just like absolutely dunking on the grandfather of four for four and those were kind of my jokes i stayed there i said you know i thought it was great that four for four still lets paulson do shows it's kind of like the honorary uh tea time at aug Augusta for the masters opening round. You know, they let the old guys tee off first to get started.

We do that, but we do it every week. So I did that one. I didn't think it was too bad, but I saw Paulson's face and react to it. That's all I needed. So even though you didn't see anything, we're missing this week.

Sorry, JP. And that's all I got on the defensive side. So we got a little bit of room for your questions. If you want to come fire, if you're hanging out with us, a bunch of you. Again, we super appreciate that you're hanging out. If you haven't already done so, like on the video, subscribe to the channel. We appreciate those things immensely.

And then jump in the chat if you have anything here in the last couple of minutes that you want to get our thoughts on. We'll roll through some of these here and see what you like. All right. Bobby Big Wheels. get our thoughts on we'll roll through uh some of these here and uh see what you like all right bobby big wheels i saw he was in the chat he's got some one this guy's a psychopath like he always has something wow here we go we got one from bobby he's around mario douglas pop douglas receptions and yards got your name all over it. Slav, what do you think about Pop? Over.

Yes. I want receptions. So the yards came out at 41.5. That's kind of big. So the problem is that he had like a 2.5 ADOT last week. Yeah, not great. But he's awesome after the catch. So I want receptions here

um because look i mean look the path is clear connor i mean again like the worst take that connor's ever had he continues to have this take that he somehow thinks he can cover davante parker one-on-one just the most egregious take i've ever heard in my life he just continues to double down on at any time he thinks he can cover devontae parker can we get like can we get him maybe to run rock if devontae parker ever somehow manages to stumble upon this you can tag him on twitter or whatever i will d your ass up one-on-one anytime you will mod the up an nfl receiver no shots first of all he's got like four inches on you yeah he's a little bit bigger but you know what i'll get into it a little bit he can't handle the

heat he can't handle the heat someone gets into him he's a little bit bigger, but you know what? I'll get into it. He can't handle the heat. Someone gets into him, he's got nothing. Who's throwing the passes? That's where you got a quarterback right now anyway. Connor might do the cornerback thing where the ball gets thrown 10 yards over the guy's head and then they start

doing this like they just did something. You better believe. I could see Connor being like that as a corner he would do that i'll throw davante open he's just no one could throw him open because he's never open he's literally covered you can't cover him though you can't cover him you cannot i'm out i would take yeah probably not if i knew you were covering him anyway he's concussed this week so uh you know he's laying he's laying low someone can send this

video he's got time to watch it he's not playing we saw obviously what happened with kendrick born so the path for pop douglas is a little bit clearer the waters uh have you know parted a little bit and he played ahead of juju last week so like in running out of the slot uh nice spot danny johnson slot corner for commander's not good at football yeah i think uh i think pop is very interesting so i would love to see a nice three and a half we didn't see that at all yet so i'm hoping we get that born right is that any terrorist acl that would yeah yeah like they they have nobody for like yeah i don't know if you guys looked at i mean obviously the espn analytics things was you know a little bit tough considering terry kill was 16th on the

list so i mean he should never be 16th on any ranking but uh i do agree with the sentiment about uh all the rest of it kendrick bourne was like top 10 in their ratings like top 15 and then there's like 130 wide receivers ranked hunter henry devante parker and juju smith schuster were all made up the bottom 10 in terms of like open yard after catch, whatever they graded on was literally like bottom 10. I mean, I don't blame Mac fully.

I don't blame Bill O'Brien fully because their receivers are just total ass. I mean, there's, there's not a lot you can do with that. So in comes pop Douglas, baby, you know what I mean? He's going to pop off.

Pop Douglas and Keishwn Booty Week. So maybe a receptions ladder at FanDuel if they give us a number on them. Yeah. Yeah. I paused on the yards because, again, like 41.5 is not a lot, but I feel better if we can get a decent price on like 3.5 receptions or something like that. I think that would be pretty viable.

I know we'll get juice 3.5. I know we uh let's see here probably like minus 130. just go five plus a little plus money there you go easy game all right shout out to jim jim wants to know our thoughts on deandre swift over 13 and a half carries this is a play that we've uh we've had some swift carries and the guy at swift yards the week before. Connor, you had swift carries last week. Had to sweat that one out a little bit, but then cruised over a bunch of late carries. Any thoughts on going back to swift here in the spot against Dallas?

One carry in the first half, 15 in the second half. I mean, truly never in doubt, right, when they go down two scores. Yeah. No, in this spot, though, I just worry. I just worry. I mean, they fell down by two touchdowns and they were like, yeah, we're not running the ball ever. Like, you know, we're just going to throw the ball 25 times in the first half. So I guess in this, I would only want it if we could get a better chance of positive game script or at least more certain, I would say, because falling down two scores with a team like Washington makes me a little bit nervous for something like this.

Devontae Adams from JB, play of the week. Yeah, I mean, look, this would be a spot where I feel so much better if it wasn't Aiden O'Connell in this spot. But again, obviously, what are we on? Week two of squeaky wheel narratives for the Raiders. We've added the good vibes narrative into that as well because they're hooping in the locker room. Everyone's talking about the practice meetings.

It's so different. Antonio Pierce, they got one of their own as the coach now, just totally different when you take out Josh McDaniels out of there. What do we think? We'd have to probably go with all-tier slop, right? You know, 100-plus, 125-plus is the only way to do it. I'd look at receptions, too. I mean, like, he'll catch a couple of those, like,

little bullshit receiver screens and it don't, like, go anywhere. But, like, those are receptions. So, I don't know. They're not afraid to force feed that guy either. I don't know if you've ever taken another Raiders receiver and then watched one of their games when it just – every ball goes to him. So you're taking a guess, though, as to what they're going to do just because it is a new coach.

It is – there's so many things. But those are situations you want to bet into, especially when you're talking about betting alts just because. I mean, if you're right, you're probably going to be really right. So if you're wrong – You targeted them a to be really right. So if you're wrong. They targeted him a bunch too, right? Yeah. Last time they played together?

I would think so, yeah. Like I think that's the – it's tough because there was like three different quarterbacks for them this season. So, you know, I can't remember which one I saw. I just know I watched them. What happened was like pepper the guy. Chargers game, he got fed. Plus –

Yeah, like every ball on the first drive remember it was ridiculous like all right well my myers is done but we saw davante first thing with mcdaniel's out puts a basketball hoop in the locker room and he's out there hooping so vibes look good you know aoc though anytime someone says that to me uh i think of alexandria cortez like the governor. So I'm used to it being Aiden O'Connell, but eventually I think I'll get there. She's not a governor. Whatever.

Whatever. I like it. I like it. Who cares? She's involved in the government. She's irrelevant either way. JB also noting, I think the binary line, 70 and a half anytime touchdown. If that's your jam, lead Sunday in receiving yards at 14 to 1

is available as well. So, yeah, come here for the football takes, not the – It's not a politics show. I mean, it's not the politics. Civics experts here. Yeah. We're going to set the chat in flames, the fact that I even mentioned a politician. Yeah, you don't need that.

I know, it's true actually. Yeah. yeah you don't need that that was i know that's true actually yeah yeah it's uh producer sally put aoc in the uh you know the youtube uh keywords here see if we get any uh new audience members here um you could probably get both sides if you put aoc in there let's be honest that's true candace shout out uh loving the weekly tackle under list i appreciate that yeah for our subscribers and discord when i once we get the sunday inactives and we know who's playing for sure all the books are out there i pull everything in um and you know share basically here everything that i have that's showing is a plus ev play on both sides under over

you know things i haven't played but if you want to go ahead and play um here the things that are showing is you know pretty massively ev based based off the projection so uh that is for our subscribers glad you enjoy that sir uh see this is why i only bet unders uh hey my guy eric even connor hang out sometime uh evie shout out what's up buddy uh back to nfl players what do you think of mixing this week a little good versus the niners those have not been good against the ground obviously those Uh, maybe shout out. What's up, buddy. Uh, back to NFL players. What do we think of mixing this week? Look good for us. The Niners bills have not been good against the ground. Obviously those injuries we talked about, you can see the bangles going up by double digits and slowing down.

We talked about this last week or not last week, but on Wednesday show, we saw a massive change in, um, pre-snap stuff from the bangles. They had basically been exclusively in shotgun all season long because of Burrow, right? They, you know, don't put them under center, let them get into that back foot quicker. 98, 99% of the time he's in shotgun, uh, 77% of the time against the, uh, against the

Niners. And then we saw him like, again, no surprise, higher play action rate, best rushing game of the season over five yards per carry for mixing in that spot so yeah great spot for uh for mixing it's not really how i want to attack this game but i get why someone want to do it you guys have any uh slops to know connor any mixing thoughts yeah i don't know i think it seems about right i would lean over though i mean you could convince me i'm basically any over in that game to be honest so okay yeah i don't need that one-on-one which one i mean which which one you got to clarify you know i think she would torch you uh probably honestly i mean i think she could cover devante parker i mean that's the reality i mean can we get aoc to come we have connections you know can we tie into our devante Parker and AOC connections?

We don't want to say that we have any AOC connections. I don't want to have any political affiliations with either side here. I don't know. We're just saying. I know she's not a governor. That's where I'm going to stop my knowledge there. Noah Gray. This is a connor special under one and a half receptions minus 102 connor what do you think special i mean maybe i don't know i haven't looked into it i mean what's the what's the take i mean like what what i don't know i haven't been paying

attention to his route rate unless something pops off i I mean, you guys have any, like, notes on Noah Gray's usage or anything, or has it been about the same? It's Noah Gray. I mean, off the cuff, I don't have it, but I can – Yeah, I don't either. All right, well, what is this, Fuge, Fuge, whatever it is, you know, clap back with the stats if you've got to take. I mean, I'm curious.

And the next one, too. We've got Sky Moore under 1.5 perceptions plus plus 112 i mean he sucks so at least no gray's all right all right so no gray either one of those you let me know and i might be in if we get some some facts behind it yeah no gray nothing's happened with no gray in terms of uh uh what he's been doing he's like you know runs about 20 routes per game for the most part sees uh one to two targets two targets last game one the week before right so basically he's gonna catch them both that's the thing with mahomes though his catchable target rate is like 100 so um yeah i mean you're you're you're hoping it's

a one week instead of a two week because it's all just like two one two two three two um in terms of targets so um minus 102 though connor it's not a bad price no no massive edge though based on what's been going on yeah all right uh let's see yeah yeah he had the uh sky more thing he talked about too uh eric again this is. Here we go. Tyreek, under 6.5 receptions, but over 150 receiving yards. Plus, it's basically 90 to 1. It's 90 to 1. 90. That is hot for sure. This is the uncorrelated parlay that we were talking about earlier.

Man, that is something right there he did it once this year i'm looking right now he did six for 163 against carolina the i would almost i don't know i would think i would probably rather do six and like 125 plus or something i don't know what that is but you probably get that like 30 to something like that um because i don't know just that is, but you can probably get that like 30 to one, something like that. Cause I don't know. Just, I mean, one 50 plus is,

it's a lot of yards and they throw them those stupid little dump off so much, you know, it's like they're on like the short stuff too. And then they just unload like two or three just bombs. Yeah. He's got the right mindset here. No, wait,

wait till you see the next one. Brian Andrews. Check that one out. That's that. This is a Connor Allen right mindset here. No, wait until you see the next one. Brian Andrews, check that one out. This is a Connor Allen special right here. Yes, that one. Noah Gray under one and a half receptions. Noah Gray anytime touchdown. I'm so in on this. How do we –

That's actually a good – Just one ball and it's four score. That's fantastic. That's fantastic. That's fantastic. That's gotta be. Yeah. I'm betting this right now. If I can find it,

I'm looking this up. I don't even, I'm, there's not going to be an official play, but I'm doing it for the show. Cause this is an awesome play. Yeah. That's good,

Brian. Like where your head's at for sure. Yeah. Uh, I'm looking, you guys, Brian Sullivanivan last one here we have eckler over four uh receptions plus 124 on prop builder um slop any thoughts on eckler here is uh as a pass catcher i mean i don't i like that price for that but at the same time i i hate that game like literally the only thing i would even consider is uh garrett wilson and even that one's kind of wild but again six catches for me for that

like i had reason all of a sudden but yeah that game's a tough one yeah eight targets last week uh against the bears on uh on 26 routes. That's pretty massive. And considering his low average depth of target, the catch rate ends up being pretty high for Austin Eckler when he's seeing eight targets. So I don't hate him, especially at plus 124. Yeah, that's a good price. Connor, did you find it?

Yeah, so no gray under one and a half receptions and anytime touchdown 35 to1 on FanDuel. I'm betting it. If you want to get a little wild, you can add in over 14 and a half receiving yards so you have the double anti-correlation, and that's like 90-1. So it's like a 15-yard, one catch for 15 yards on a touchdown for Noah Gray. I don't like that. So I don't like that as much either.

I like the other one better. How about the first touchdown? Oh, man. man all right so give me a second okay i'm gonna bet under one and a half receptions and then a touchdown and that's 35 to one so 25 to win like 900 which is seems outrageous but um and then what do you say first touchdown can you can you same game parlay that i'm sure I'm sure you can. Right. Um, yeah, I'm kind of a noob in the first touchdown parlay streets. Yeah.

It's like 3,700 just for that. Just for the first touchdown. Yeah. And then you go grab his, uh, under one and a half receptions. And now it's a party yeah it's like 180 to one all right well um i'm betting on the show but why not i love it we're getting to like a long

shot golf all right prices here this This is my flavor right here. You fire a golf all right at 101, no problem. You feel really good about it. So I like that we're finding ways to get it. I don't like the over the longest reception because you feel like no great touchdown, Connor's inside the five. Yeah, it's going to be a five-yarder. Yeah.

Then he has a headache and has to leave the game for the day. Can cost on the on the play and yeah yeah yeah here we go no gray already did once this year why not us you know if i'm in alt under max and parlays when it's for sure it doesn't snow uh a one yard no gray touchdown and him never catching the ball again is very much possible yes yeah all right guys good stuff uh fun as always all of the uh participation in the chat we appreciate it very much uh thanks for hanging out with us again uh hit the thumbs up and subscribe on your way out um you want more information over uh or from slop i'm gonna

go over to odds jam uh slop what do the people need to know about odds jam go to oddsjam.com right now promo code slop at checkout free for two weeks that's it that's all you gotta do your life's changed odd screens fantastic lots of different ways you can see everything he's talking about you know all the colors popping up at once things getting bet on you can see that all over there check it out again oddsjam.com promo code slop um get our betting sub you want to get the official plays that we have going on? Connor, myself, Sharp Clark, all the tools that we have going on at 444. You want to bet NBA props with us as well? Get in the Discord.

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Again, that will take you into the end of February, March 1st, so you get the majority of the NBA season. Then just to re-up for next year, get into the early bird price, lock in your next football season with us. Great deal. 404.com slash plans. Promo code PROPDROP. Appreciate it, guys. Good stuff as always. We'll be back to do it all again next week. Let's win some money. season with us great deal four four dot com slash plans promo code prop drop uh appreciate it guys good stuff as always we'll be back to do it all again next week let's win some money

for connor and slop i'm ryan we'll see you all next time thanks everybody you