Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 9 PROPS | Top Prop Bets, Predictions & Picks

Episode Date: November 5, 2022

Experts Ryan Noonan, Connor Allen & Pat Mayo share their top Week 9 NFL player prop bets. Tail them as they hand out their top picks, highlight the best betting odds & share their expert predictions.Timestamps: 0:00 Intro4:20 Connor Prop Bet #1 6:32 Pat Prop Bet #1  9:01 Ryan Prop Bet #1 15:39 Connor & Ryan Prop Bets #2 18:54 Pat Prop Bet #2 21:03 Connor Prop Bet #3 25:38 Pat Prop Bet #328:50 Ryan Prop Bet #333:03 Connor Prop Bet #436:08 Pat Prop Bet #4 38:45 Ryan Prop Bet #4 41:41 Tackle Props45:50 Q+A55:35 Outro Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Betting on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4BetsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Pat on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ThePMEVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Prop Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TWC40v4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3pQ2tQ14for4 Player Prop Finder 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wxTcQc4for4 Player Prop Odds Comparison Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3AQ5TbK

Hello and welcome to Move the Line Prop Drop Show, Ryan News, back to talk about the best way, the most profitable way to bet on NFL football, and that is through player props. We are live here 2 p.m. Eastern every Friday, giving you our favorite props of the week and taking your questions. So if you are hanging out with us now on YouTube, subscribe, smash the like button so you don't miss a show. Lots of other great content here on the 444 channel. And then jump in the chat.

Let us know anything that you're looking at here for week nine. Kind of a slow release this week. We were just talking about before we went live here. Not a lot that's out there comparatively to this time, typically on a Friday afternoon. So what are you looking to see? We can hopefully get to that at the end of the show. Joining me as always, Connor Allen.

How are we doing? Good. Still reeling from that loss of Rex Burkhead under eight and a half rushing yards last night when he had one carry for nine yards one carry I mean I was at Daigle's house and literally I mean I was yelling I almost left I almost I mean we broke even but still felt like a loss yeah the process was strong but uh yeah a explosive play for Rex Burkhead uh situationally so yeah tough tough tough scene there so uh but good stuff we'll get back at it get back on the wagon here also joining us as always the man behind the mayo media network

and the pat mayo experience it is of course pat himself how we doing i'm i'm all right i would like to have chiefs titans props out but they don't exist apparently yeah a number of games have been slow to release uh and just like some have released a little bit and yeah i'm not quite sure why especially in situations like that where there really seems to be very limited i guess the tannahill thing maybe is part of why there's a release there i think that's kind of what we see when there's injury question marks those games can't you know come out friday night saturday morning when uh most sane people are sleeping but we'll see props never sleep but why aren't their chiefs receiving props no that's fair yeah there's nothing no questions on the chief side maybe well there's no injury

tony wise like the tony thing is a new piece but we should we should have those out there so i'm with you i don't know why there aren't uh patriots receiving yards uh not that that's uh a market that we want to all run into but i'm interested in jacoby myers i would like to see what that number is not quite sure why that's not out there so um yeah let's get into it though before we do want to remind you two episodes of move the line each week both available on youtube both in podcast form as well subscribe there we appreciate that in addition to the prop drop here our game preview show with connor john dagel and myself goes live 6.45 p.m. Eastern on Thursday nights. The Dean went to Thursday night football. We had none other than the man, the Siege, C.J. Kaltenbach from Elite last night.

Actually pretty contained Siege show. We were expecting like Siege level takes, and he actually was fairly measured. And, you know, that was a good stuff. Lots of good picks there. So check that out too. I think we had, what, six games, lots of good bets. Lots of good picks there. So check that out too. I think we had what? Six games, lots of good bets, lots of good actionable stuff. And we had a successful Thursday night

outside of the obvious pre-mentioned Rex Burkhead stuff there. So we're about halfway through the season. The price of a betting subscription at 4 for 4 reflects that. Now 50% off from the original rates. It gets you access to everything on the site. Every article, tool, DFS optimizers,

subscriber-only Discord, which is where Connor and I push all of our picks through first. I think that alone is worth the price. So head over to 444.com slash plans. If you reach out to us on Twitter, Connor and myself are at 444football, at 444bets. We'll find another way to get you even larger discount on top of the already 50%, just generous out there today. So, all right. These are not stale lines. These are available for you to bet right now. We give our best to make sure that you can get the current price, same line, anything that we did as close as possible.

Connor lets you get us kicked off here. First play for week nine. Yeah. My first play is TJ Hawkinson under 35 and a half receiving yards you find this in minus 130 i'd play this down to 30 receiving yards i'm i'm pretty surprised it's even offered to be honest in the first place given that he was just traded to a new team here on tuesday and if we look at kind of the guys who had just gotten traded recently like their first uh stints with their new team none of them played even more than 28 of the snaps like and those are at you know running back with christ McCaffrey or Robbie Anderson or any of those

guys there where I just don't see a way where TJ Hawkinson playing tight end, which is one of the most difficult positions to learn because you have to learn how to block and you have to run routes. You have to learn two things at the same time in a new system here. I just can't imagine him playing a big role on a short week here on a new team with like no, I mean, we talk about the Jeff Wilson trade to Miami where he has like some schematic understanding of what's going to happen in Miami. And he's going to be like literally handed the ball and just told to run. Whereas TJ Hawkinson has so much more on his plate.

So, I mean, I anticipate him playing probably, I don't know, maybe 15 to 20% of the snaps here. So I really just don't see a way that he goes over this number. Yeah, but surprised to see that the market didn't really react and sometimes someone someone like this like sometimes gets posted and gets steamed because i didn't see it when you first posted it uh but it's kind of moved and kind of held out there too which is i'm curious about but i think your process there is right how do you have any thoughts about you know hot kind of coming over and uh this 34 and a half number I actually like the over for it.

I think he's going to play more than you think. And it's primarily because besides George Kittle, he's probably the best blocking tight end in football. That's why he's been brought in. Yeah. It's going to take a while to catch up on some of the schematic stuff, but it might be a lot of, Hey,

we need you out there. You're now in past blocking, seal this edge. We're in run blocking, seal this edge, and then just go run your routes and the issue with hawkinson on the over-unders is that you know it's one stiff arm and he's down the field that's usually just how he gets to his overs every single game it's not

like his a dot is huge and he's catching 40 area passes now he's catching like a 10 area pass making one guy miss then he's hard to catch once he's into the second level so it'd be a stay away for me in this game. Yeah, I stayed away too. I think your thought process is correct. Again, you have a ton of outs anyway, on and under. So no problem with that.

Pat, how about you? What's your first one? This is tough to tell you the truth because all the ones that I really like this week just really haven't been out there yet. So I think I'm going to go to rushing yards and I am going to go to the Chargers and Atlanta Falcons game and stick on the Chargers side of

the ball. Now, if he doesn't play, then obviously you get a void bet. So it's not a win. It's not a loss, just money back. But 55 and a half for Austin Eckler on the ground seems super low against a team that can't legit stop anything. Now, maybe the Chargers don't run enough. I do have Herbert projected for 42 passing attempts in this game, but they are likely to be down both of their top receivers. Parham picked up a new injury, so it might just be Gerald Everett there that if they can sustain drives by running, and it's not like it's going to take Eckler 23 carries to get to 55 yards.

He could do that in 10, basically, or eight with his Atlanta defense that they might actually have to turn to the running game a little bit more than maybe that they're used to here. So that number seemed artificially low to me. I get it based on his workload, the amount of attempts he gets, and now that he's a little bit nicked up, that could be an issue. But I do like the over 55 and a half. Dying for some Eckler receiving numbers.

Those came out like an hour before kick, I think, last week. I got some here for you. See, we have... Yeah, I got receiving yards, I think. I thought I had them. Maybe I don't. No, no, they did not come up. Although Zaccheaus is on the board now,

so they're filtering out. Hopefully. Connor, thoughts on the Eckler play? I mean, same thoughts as you. I was waiting for like a rushing receiving combo because i'm i'm pretty confident he gets there you know it's just a matter of whether it's a screen pass for 50 yards or run for 50 yards or maybe both i don't you know i think that there's probably multiple ways that he gets there in this spot and receptions

that we have him projected for seven receptions for 71 yards uh the receiving, which sounds absurd, but it's probably about right. Here's the thing. I have him eight for 63. Again, no Mike Williams too. It's not like they're going to use him in a vertical way, but they need some explosive plays. This is not what Josh Palmer does very well. It's not what DeAndre Carter, definitely not what Mike Bandy does.

So we need something to push this offense down the field. So I do think it's going to be a heavy amount of Eckler, you know, and I think like Pat said, you don't need a ton of carries to get there here. And it's a pretty soft landing spot against a soft Falcons defense. So yeah, no problem with that one at all. My first is one of the ones that I on like Monday morning was circling and really excited about getting down on Terry McLaurin, receiving over 66 and a half yards. I think 67 in some spots, but the juice is fine with it either.

I actually think his over on his longest reception, too, 25 and a half yards, I think is a pretty viable play. He's been peppered with targets with under heineke uh his like first read targets are way up uh target share of 26 and 29 percent the last two weeks it's a total of 16 targets and minnesota has been gashed with big plays they are 32nd dead last in league in dva against wide receiver ones. And they are giving up the highest rate of explosive passes on the season. And we talked about Heineke here in the past. Like he's got a little bit of that DGAF.

He thinks that he's kind of that guy. He's not afraid to push it downfield. They have some question marks too. Minnesota does in the, as far as the health of their secondary this week, Kim Dantzler, I think is, is questionable heading into this one.

Yeah. So I just love everything here on McLaurin's side. Yeah, 67 and a half, I think, is where it's out now. DraftKings, no problem firing at that. So, Connor, any thoughts on McLaurin? No, I mean, I think it's probably a little bit light, maybe like, I don't know, 5, 10 yards light. I think it's just going to come down to whether or not

they connect on that one deep pass. You look at his recent games here, he had a 42 and a 37 yarder from Heineke. The matchup lines up right. I like it. I think it's the right side here. Pat, where do you have McLaurin projected at? I haven't projected for right around this number.

This was actually one of the ones I was going to play as well. So now I need to scramble mid-show to find one that's not yours. And hopefully I can come up with something. What do I have him for? I have him five for 75. Yeah, I just, I like it. I think same 25 and a half is a big play too. And yeah, he's not been a high volume guy

the last handful of years. But again, the big plays are definitely there on the table. So again, hanging out in the chat, continue to ask us questions. We'll get to them at the end of the show. Connor, pick number two. Yeah, we'll deviate here real quick. What's the word on Andrews?

We just got a notification he did not practice again, live during the show, a little quick breaking news there. So I don't anticipate him playing, but we can talk about that at the end of the show if we want to go deeper in that. We can do it real quick. I mean, so Isaiah Likely obviously was a monster last week when he was off the

field, but the saints have been the best in the league of defending the tight ends. What do we think about that? Yeah. I mean, I think it just depends on what his numbers come at. Like,

I mean, last week I was like super excited to get a guy like Harrison Bryant's props. And then they ended up being like 30 something yards. And I was like, eh, it's too high. Just puts up a total goose egg.

I think likely is fine. I think he'll probably just get like steamed up massively if he opens up in like the twenties. So we'll see. But I do think he's a fine like fantasy play if you need help. And obviously he did great in the preseason. But again, a lot of that was with, you know, Tyler Huntley, who provided a lot of help for Mark Andrews, like best games last year, just like loves to run in the middle of the field. So I think likely is fine. Everyone loves likely though. I know I'm on an Island. I got a ton of hate preseason about being like,

yeah, I mean, he's fine, but like, I don't think he's like, you know, the next Gronk or anything. So yeah,

that's where I'm at on him. Yeah. Pretty comfortably. The best team, according to football outsiders, DV away metric against tight end. So I don't know what people think about that, but it's yeah it's paid itself forward as far as like the bills who have been pretty much the dominant team against tight ends all season and that's been we're really good tight end

performance has gone to die so there's without Bateman there too like they're going to have to throw to someone and I think lightly probably does see some decent volume but again speculative it's hard like I know Pat you probably don't have uh numbers for likely without andrews in the lineup right so yeah i can come i can come up with them as we speak if you'd like i think it makes for a good you know good discussion here let's see all right so i i had mark andrews at a 28 percent target share so we'll put that down to zero and i guess what do you buy likely at 10 what What do you bump him up to? That's the thing. Where do the passes go in this offense? Right. Again, no Bateman. So let's say you don't throw to the running backs. 24%? That sound right?

It's fair. All right. We'll bump Josh Oliver up from 5 to 10, I guess. Is Nick Boyle playing? Probably. All right. So we'll have to bump him up a little bit as well. So we'll go to 10% on him, and we'll go to 5% on Oliver, I guess. And Kenyon Drake up to 8%. I don't think Gus Buss is going to be doing much receiving out of the backfield.

I guess we put Demarcus robinson up to 15 from 12 and i guess we're good to go now at 100 all right let's see what this uh see what this projection gives me on old isaiah like i like him this week but i'm not too concerned that the saints are great at covering tight ends because very few tight ends are going to probably be the focal point of a passing game uh outside of very few teams and i don't know if the saints have actually played anyone like that so far this year so there's that angle to it as well so let's see here where's likely at likely would give me four catches for 39 yards in that scenario yeah you're probably getting like four and a half receptions like

juiced anyways it's probably not like i don't know not a great look yeah i mean if you get anything in the mid-20s i think that'd be a smash on the over but uh if we get like a low to mid 30s i think it's probably just like a meh and that has them running let's see half and a half rushing to receiving if they're leading in this game they're gonna be running yeah the interesting thing too with like the bills and the Saints who are great at it like we have bills who play a ton of zone almost exclusively and the Saints play man like the league's highest rate too so it's not even like a schematic thing and DVOA should is designed to kind of capture that instead of being just raw stats about you know they've allowed x amount to because i kind of hate that analysis because it doesn't as to pat's point doesn't capture who they played um so dvoa is supposed to kind of knock that out a little bit but yeah i

mean obviously he's going to see some targets he'll probably even get some looks outside of the perimeter if mark angers isn't here with bateman on the lineup too so wait see it's a monday night so we books are obviously not posting stuff on Sunday. So they're in no rush to post Saints, Ravens stuff here, I'm sure. All right, Connor, back to you, number two. Yeah, so my second one here is Marcus Mariota under 180 and a half passing yards at this point. Noonan, I'm sure you probably have this on your list too

for the attempts. But I mean, Falcons here, awesome matchup in the running game against the Chargers who are 27th in run D EPA, 23rd in run D DVOA as well. Mariota went under this number in four straight games prior to last week's shootout against the Panthers, connected on multiple deep passes. In the four games prior, his highest yardage total was just 147 yards. And I think given the matchup, kind of like what we saw against Cincinnati too,

they really thought their edge was in the running game. And that's what they tried doing, like despite losing by three scores, basically the entire game. And I think that even in this spot, even if the Chargers are able to kind of get a big lead here, you know, I do think that they're probably going to stick with the run.

And personally, I know Newton and I talked about it on the other show. Like I think that the Falcons can kind of hang here and can keep it within a neutral game script. Right now, it's only – I mean, they're what, three-point dogs? So I don't know. I think that this game is close. I think that the Falcons run the ball a ton.

I think they have a ton of success. So I think the under on the passing yards is great. I don't know, Nunez, if you want to chime in at all here with your take on the attempts. Yeah, I'm under on the attempts. We were waiting for them to post it last week. They came around it's a little juicy i think a minus 135 now on draft kings yeah i got minus 130 on rivers you can see kind of where it's heading on caesar's there too producer sal if you're hanging watching on youtube i was posting our uh prop market there

from four for four i mean last week it took it to connor's point it took a 34.4 quarter and overtime for him to pass this much and it's actually one of the highest play volume games for the falcons all season last week too so kind of an outlier for him to get to 28 when you look at what they've done and even if you just look at you know pass rate over expectation they still were pass heavy i mean run heavy they negative 14 pass rate over expectation. They still were pass heavy. I mean, run heavy, they negative 14% pass rate over expectation in that game. And the chargers invite you to run. They are like bottom five in explosive run rate, EPA DVO, a all these things since basically Brandon Staley has got there. They are fine with light boxes and fine with allowing you to do so. And it's working for the Falcons. So I do think to Connor's point that they are a live dog at home.

This Chargers team is beat up. So yeah, I'm still, I'm willing to pay this. Typically not, you know, minus 130, minus 140 is not something we typically do too often. But I just think this number is bad. We're usually, as far as our projections, are very bullish on quarterback projections. And even we have Mariota at 23. so uh pat where are you

lining up on the mariotta stuff this week mariotta i have at oh boy scroll down to the bottom here no oh that's completions i was like 12 attempts that doesn't seem like very much i haven't met 20 attempts for the week but like i said it just weird circumstances led to overs hitting last week. And sometimes you feel great about something and eat some juice. Like I did last night in the Thursday night game with Damian Pierce. I was like over two and a half receptions, minus one 50. Perfect.

It's like free money. No, not even close. Well, you felt good about it though. You know, that's all that matters. Yeah.

I was like, I'll start spending that money now. It sounds great. I'm going to go to a quarterback. Taylor Heineke. I can't find the passing yard total. I think that's the one that I would want to play in this game. I have him projected, I believe, top five in the league in terms of passing yards.

Yeah, number four at 270 yards. I don't see anything out there yet. So I... 231. Was it? 231. Where did you find that at? at 270 yards. I don't see anything out there yet. So I 31, was it two 31? Where did you find that at? Uh, DraftKings Caesars. Oh,

I didn't, I was looking at DraftKings now. I don't see it there. Maybe I'm just weirdly strong. Okay. Over 231 passing yards for Taylor Heineke here, as I have him projected for, you know,

40 more yards than that. Uh, I just think that Minnesota can be passed on. They give up big plays, as you talked about. Everyone's betting Washington this week, which definitely means that the Vikings will be up 21 points at some point in this game. And then they'll allow Washington to get back into it.

That's both the Minnesota and Washington strategy every single week. So I love 231 and a half. Wow. I thought it was going to be like 262 or something like that. So, no, I love that1 and a half. I, wow. I thought it was gonna be like 262 or something like that. So no, I love that. Yeah. I'm in. Awesome. Yeah. We talked about it on last night's show too. Minnesota is great. They're like one of the best teams in league in the first half and that they're scripted 15 just seems to work. And then they very much come back down to earth. So yeah, I mean, if you do like Washington, probably better to wait and bet them live,

but that also bodes very well for the McLaurin and for the taylor heineke props here that we're talking about uh connor any thoughts on on heineke i'm very interested because it correlates well with the mclaren stuff and pat is this bullish i feel we should probably take a look at that yeah the heineke one's a good look uh i didn't really think about it in that uh i don't know i guess context but i do like it it's the matchup's great. I think Minnesota should have some success. Yeah, this is a good look. You're at 279 last week. Only 200 in Green Bay, but that's because that game was just like, you know,

I mean, they were just sucking it dry on both sides in terms of running the ball. There's minimal play volume and a lot tougher matchup than Minnesota. So I think that this is a much better spot here for Heineke to kind of, you know, keep going there. Probably, I mean, like you said, probably 262.70s, well within reach here. Pretty good pace-up spot there, too, I would expect. So, all right, Collin, back to you for your third. Yeah, my third is my guy, Zach Wilson, under 210.5 passing yards.

I'm really surprised, honestly, this number is over even like 200. I don't really get it. I know that he's had a couple of big games here occasionally, but he's gone over this number in two or five games this season. Bills have allowed more than this in only three of seven games so far this year. Bills top five in pretty much every pass defense metric, probably getting Tredavious White back, I think. Jordan Poyer is announced out, but on the other side, Zach Wilson also will not have Corey Davis. Elijah Moore ran behind Denzel Mims last week,

so I don't even know if he's a factor in this game. Maybe they get him involved, but I think that that's more of just like a prayer at this point. Zach Wilson just really, really struggles against what the Bills do well. We saw last year, week 17, Zach Wilson completed just seven of his 20 passes against Buffalo for 87 receiving yards with Buffalo playing that zone defense, keeping the ball in front of them. We talked about it on last night's show, but I just think the exact opposite of what Zach Wilson could hypothetically do well is in this matchup against Buffalo here. Also, Zach Wilson against zone 37th out of 38 qualified quarterbacks in, uh,

sports info solutions, uh, metric against zone 38% success, sorry, success rate against zone. So I also expect the jets to start extremely run heavy too, after kind of what we saw the Packers do against them last week. So like,

if we're going to see a run heavy approach to start and then him probably struggling as the bills defense, uh, I just don't see the way that he gets there barring like, I mean, 50 plus pass the time switch, So like if we're going to see a run-heavy approach to start and then him probably struggling against the Bills defense, I just don't see the way that he gets there, barring like, I mean, 50 plus pass attempts, which I guess is possible. But even then, I just think there's gonna be so many interceptions. Like we've seen him play in some comeback games and he's just a complete train wreck for the most part.

Pat, you had a smirk. Are you... You don't need to tell me that Zach Wilson sucks. Some data points to back it up. But yeah, watch for Paul. A long-winded explanation just when I me that Zach Wilson sucks. Data points to back it up. But yeah, watch the long-winded explanation. Just this, when I get it, just said he sucks. Yeah, it's rough. It's rough.

I mean, I know theoretically, like to begin these spots where it's like, oh, the game script is going to be so bad that he's going to have this like crazy good day because he's going to throw so many times. It does not work like that. That happened against the Patriots last week. It happens. Like it does happen sometimes, but it doesn't always necessarily correlate with like,

oh, you're going to be down 30 points, 20 points. And they're going to just have to force it. Like he's just bad. He's inefficient. And they, I don't think you're going to see like a massively different scheme from

Buffalo. Like they only bring four. They're not going to like change all of a sudden, like, oh, they were blitzing all game and now they're like resting because they're up by 20. You know, he's just, he's bad. And if you can't move the chains, you can't sustain drives.

Like you have to get in these big spike plays. He just hasn't shown the ability to do that. So I get why maybe like I looked at it too. And that's why I was looking at completions. I'm like, yeah, he could just think induct to Michael Carter. And then all of a sudden you're, you know, just kind of holding the bag there in the third quarter where he's,

you know, already topped it. Cause he can't push the ball down the field. So I don't know. I like Connor's look. I was like, just looking at Zach Wilson over 0.5 interceptions is minus 200. That's a great place to eat some juice.

I would think. I would actually go the other way on that. I think that the note had the no interceptions on bad quarterbacks is the way to go. Like, P.J. Walker, no interceptions is plus 170. Like, the Bengals are up their two best corners. That one's enticing. Or Josh Allen over half an interception at even money against the Jets. I think this game is low scoring, weirdly enough.

I like a lot of the unders for the bills in general just because i like the 12 and a half is tough for me i probably like the jets there but i actually don't ever think it's going to be a competitive game i feel like i've talked myself into this one scenario of how this game is going to go and it's like bills win 22 to 10, something like that. Yeah, they cover the spread there too. No, they don't. They don't cover by a half. Okay.

Well, I saw some 11s today. Ew. It depends on where you're at. Yeah. But yeah, I would think unders in that game make a lot of sense too. Good perimeter quarters for the Jets. So yeah, I don't hate that at all. Yeah. I wanted Isaiah McKzie over receptions but

that's not available yeah and probably isn't till till sunday morning for some reason so it's probably a good thing because i want to hear about the role that naheem hines is going to play in this offense because he might just be a slot receiver that'd be interesting anyway i got enough of them they got k Khalil Shakir. They got a bunch of dudes. I don't know. What's your third, Pat? Deion Jackson, receiving prop.

Over 21 and a half receiving yards. Was he going to have 13 targets in this game? Yeah, that just popped, huh? Yeah, it's up there now. Minus 110, so a drafting sports book. So yeah, I like that one a lot. Yeah, I like that one a lot too. I'm guessing, Connor, you probably like that one a lot yeah i like that one a lot too i'm guessing connor you probably like that one a lot i do yeah that's a solid look i didn't see that i

mean it's great because we're getting stuff dropping during the show i know so the downside of everything dropping all at once is that it's dropping late and we get antsy and we want more for the show but the good thing is is that when they drop all together like you know they're not quite as efficient because like like sharp batters aren't able to like just get in there and like shape every little thing like as they methodically drop when they all just dump together it's like you can just get on things like and there's way more opportunity i think well here's the thing though do we think that his receiving role is wildly reduced with ellinger and not matt ryan

i think it's different so i think yeah i think that that's kind of like the lazy uh analysis we've seen so far today is like oh the last time he was in this role this is what he did and it's like no like matt ryan was doing something very different and very very game you know game flow specific game plan specific too i think against the jags there so i think there's still room for him to get there even if this shifts down massively because it sounds like they're not going to bring zach moss here looks like it's going to be philip lindsey yeah so like i'm not super worried about them they said that's going to be deon jackson to kind of be the guy looks

like you know probably negative game script so yeah i think it's probably there's room for it to not be what it was last week and to still go over this 21 and a half. So Connor, I know it's typically shy away from these, but yeah, because the only reason I mentioned this, like between Heinz and Taylor last week,

they had two catches for 29 years, which would win us this bet. Obviously it's great, but that's not super inspiring. No, it's a good point. Yeah. Cause I'll let you, I mean,, Ellinger likes to run too.

We talked about it last week. I mean, he got like what, that bet didn't hit because he was like two or three holding calls. Like he had like- Okay, yeah, but hold on a second. I knew that. You can't be like, oh, well, he should have got to his over because of the holding calls.

We wouldn't have fucking got 40 yards if there wasn't holding. They were non, they were like non-holding. They were like, even like relative to the play. Like he's like out on his own running. And then it was like, you know, holding it was, it was pretty ridiculous.

I mean, maybe, maybe you're right, but I don't, he was not even close to the guys. It wasn't great. 47 and a half is his rushing number. I like that far less than his,

his receiving number here. So, well, it's good too. Cause the Patriots are really good against the past, very poor against the run, but that would also filter a lot of receptions to guys underneath i would think rather than down the field i'm wanting to go back to the eleger rushing one too i've seen the past gashed by uh by quarterbacks that can run a little bit and i'm still of the mindset

that eleger is a uh a willing runner so uh wait for that one to populate too but yeah i like the deon jackson look quite a bit all right uh my third is let's move a little bit this is my first play of the week was aaron jones over 98 and a half total yards um i played it at 93 and a half i still play at a 98 and a half anywhere under 100 i think is fine just have talked endlessly about how the Lions are a very, very generous lover, regardless of how you're looking to game plan against them. They will allow you to do absolutely anything you want. Actually talked about it yesterday, shield Kapadia of the ringer.

I was talking about looking back at true media. They have basically EPA back to 2000, 23 seasons. There's been basically 734 instances of a team performing over that time span. And the current iteration of the Lions is the worst team since 2000 defensively in EPA per play. It is a historically bad defense that will allow you to do anything that you want. And I think we've kind of seen Jones separate a little bit from A.J. Dillon in recent weeks. He's handled at least 80 or 62 percent of the running back carries in three of the past four. Injuries to the wide receiver core, I think, has helped his passing game opportunities as well.

He's got 15 targets in the past two games, which leaves the team pretty comfortable, like 29, 19% target share in those games. And then last week, too, we like seeing them run and run successfully late, even though they maybe should have been a little bit more aggressive. They had some success doing so, and this feels like a spot for Aaron Jones to go absolutely crazy. We have him for 78 yards on the ground and 39 through the air, which puts you comfortably over this mark, like I said, anywhere up to 100. So, Pat, what do you think? What do you have Aaron Jones at this week? I like Aaron Jones under as always.

Okay. Just because you're noisy with the A.J. Dillon stuff? It's not necessarily it's noisy with the A.J. Dillon stuff. When you just go parse through all of Aaron Jones's numbers, he really only has like five big games every year because the Packers don't seem to know what they're doing on offense. They're like, oh, this week we're not going to use Aaron Jones at all. It's like, OK, I don't know why you're not using what seems to be your best player at this point, but just with the way that they coach, it's a lot like the I know DeAndre Swift is banged up, but he wasn't weeks one and two. It's like, why don't you give this Swift guy the ball?

He seems way better than this other guy. No, we're going to give the other guy 60 percent of the work. The Packers do the exact same thing. And in games where they should most definitely run the pad, like what was the stupid game they played in London against the Giants? Like, oh, this is a smash for Aaron Rodgers, unders and rushing overs, which it should have been even with the way the game played out. It should have went that way.

But no, of course it did not go that way because the Packers. So I feel like you've just won a lot more money blindly betting Aaron Jones unders over the years rather than overs. Yeah, I would agree with that premise. I think the recent usage is great because the Lions are so bad. They can even kind of play with their food a little bit here, mix A.J. Dillon in, go really pass heavy all of a sudden. And like Aaron Jones can still do this on 10 touches because the lions are just that bad of a team so uh connor any thoughts on the uh aj jones or uh aj jones

aaron jones look yeah i think pat kind of nailed it for me about why like i just don't bet aaron jones overs generally it's just like the usage is like just so i mean i don't know random it's just like i mean even the last like three weeks, like against Washington and the Jets, he had fewer than 10 carries. He got a ton of usage in the past game though. So that's good. But I don't know. It's just something that like, I think that like you said,

you can be efficient. You can get there for sure. I would almost, I would almost rather like alt bet stuff if you want to take it than just take like the rushing seed. Yeah, that's a, that's pretty savvy. Just try to find like, if you want to bet the over just take like the rush you see yeah that's a that's pretty savvy just try to find like if you want to bet the over find some crazy progressive like i won a big one last week on jacoby meyer's progressive receptions like i just looked at it was like huh you know all the patriots do are gonna do in this game is just throw over the middle that's they only have

one guy for this and i think i played eight or over i think he ended up with nine in the game like and then you know you only have to be right once every eight times or something because it pays eight to one probably go back to that one this week too today will not post the jacoby meyer stuff so uh all right it's back to uh you connor again if you're hanging out in the chat let us know any questions that you have anything that you're waiting to see anything that's populated while we've been recording that you want to get our thoughts on happy to take those questions at the end of the show. Connor, bring us home with your fourth prop. Yeah, I was channeling my inner Noonan with this one here.

A wide receiver over. Jalen Waddell over 67 at receiving yards. So he's played five games so far with Tua when Tua's played 90% of the snaps or more. He's 5-0 on this number. His lowest was 69 receiving yards. In the other games, 171, 102, 88, and 106 receiving yards. The Dolphins with Tua have been crushing, essentially top five in every pass offensive metric with games that Tua started and played

the majority of. Now they have to play the Bears. Bears just allowed Dak Prescott to go 21 of 27 for 250 yards, like 9.2 yards per attempt. And that was after trading away Robert Quinn. Now they just traded away Roquan Smith as well. They have essentially no talent in their front seven. We have wild projected for like 88. I think I'd play it up to 70. I know there's some weather concerns in Chicago. But I mean, right now we're looking at the weather forecast being like 13 to 14 mile

per hour winds. Wind speed just doesn't even matter until like 20 plus so um you know i'm really not worried yet uh at all and i think that this is just a fantastic matchup here for for waddle and this dolphin's offense to keep crushing what what was the number again 67 it's funny i haven't projected for 59 yards wow which seems crazy to me but i think i have a lot of running in that game. Bears run all over him. Not a problem. And maybe Miami tries to take the path of least resistance. I talked about this a little bit this week, and I guess you guys are local to Chicago. You would know. I feel like Miami is one of the reasons I like the Bears this week.

Miami is the team that is the inverse construction on offense for what you would ever try to do at Soldier Field. It'd be like playing at Heinz Field. Like, that field sucks. Like, it's in rough shape. And their entire team is speed predicated. That this might actually, that might be the best defender the Bears have this week is that crappy field. Yeah, it's like they grow the kukuya out and let you try to play in, like, three-and-a-half-inch rough to slow everyone down. And, yeah, it's a mess.

They let – because the Park District owns it. They let high school games get played there all the time. Like, it's insane. They put down a new turf this year. It's just as bad. Like, everyone's still complaining about it. Yeah, I mean, it's why they're moving to Arlington Heights out by Union. So, I mean, you're about to be real close.

Took away my horse track, but they're going to bring me the bears, which I'd rather have the horse track, but it's okay. But yeah, I mean, my only concern in this game would be the play volume because I do think that Miami can play slow. And if they do lean a little bit run heavy, I think it was encouraging last week because going back to the Lions, who let you do whatever you want, they chose to go pass at me me so it does feel like when they have kind of all systems running uh you know they had turn armstead at the left tackle they kind of had everyone that they want and

they decided they decided to go let's go pass heavy here so maybe that kind of leans here and again this is another guy who was electric he could do it with big plays and so i i don't hate it whatsoever i'm not tailing it but i it's a brand guy for you too and i respect you chasing an elite alpha wide receiver over it's not been a typical play for you uh pat how about you last one or this is my other part all the ones you're thinking about i i have two that i'm thinking of really and i mean maybe there's more they're just not available so i every week i keep going back i think I had the Tyree kill over last week. I think I did. Anyway, I bet it.

So hopefully I said it on the show. But the high-end receivers who, are their odds too low? Like I said, T. Higgins is loved by my projection system. But I don't actually believe it. Cooper Cup would be next. I'd actually be more inclined to bet the under on Cooper Cup because I don't think that he's anywhere near full health this week. What's a DeAndre Hopkins?

Totally. Uh, three. Yeah. I mean, I have him 10 yards over that, but that's, that's too close for comfort.

So I have it down between Christian, two Jags, actually Christian Kirk over 53 and a half receiving yards. Uh, the target volume has still been there seven and 10 the past two games. Obviously, he didn't get there against a very good defense last week.

But you would probably see Christian Kirk playing primarily out of the slot this week against the Raiders. The Raiders' second-worst team in football against slot receivers. Seems like a very logical match. Also, the Raiders' defense is horrible against the pass and the run. ETN's only coming in at 76 and a half rushing yards. Feel like he goes well beyond that. So that's what I'm going to go with. Travis ETN over 76 and a half rushing yards.

The one on my list that it's up there now, but I haven't fired at it is ATN longest rush 17 and a half. He's like, if you look at like his last couple of logs like 48 38 30 like he's just he's getting it done the raiders haven't allowed a bunch of big explosive plays on the ground but like you can run on them we saw last week with the saints who want to run and can do so successfully so yeah and it's hard to not be pro everything atn right now uh and they're the usage is great and with the volume he's getting

like he might get 22 carries in this game correct yeah so probably you're looking at the better the better line there to go just total rushing yards versus the one explosive what do you think there connor any thoughts on atm yeah no i didn't really think about it in that context but yeah like the usage has been insane like i mean there's no reason he shouldn't get at least you know 16 plus 17 plus carries in the spot. And again, in a good matchup. So, yeah, I mean, I'm into it. And he's been just so good.

Like we talked about it before this for your longest rush. Like he's been an amazing, like explosive rusher so far. All right. I got a bunch here. One I just fired at before and was about to post it for subscribers. It's moved a little bit though. It's still available on PointsBet. Robert Tanyan, over 30 and a half receiving yards. It's 31 and a half on Caesars, MGM, DraftKings. This is kind of weirdly low to me. I mean, he's done this

comfortably in the last three weeks, basically basically since he's returned and is healthy. 12 targets, four targets, six targets. The Lions are a dead last in surprising, a dead last in DVOA against tight ends this season. We know the injuries there. We talked about to kind of prop up the Aaron Jones thing. I just think you're going to see five, six targets and receptions here for Tanya,

who actually can do some stuff with the long receptions here for for tanya news who's uh actually can you know actually do some stuff with the long receptions too like you've seen longest reception 20 14 16 19 15. if he's catching three balls here he is uh is getting there with no problem so uh that one's a little light to me so i like tanya and we have him i think in the mid 40s so uh big bob would be my fourth one. But the ones I'm also looking at, we talked about Devonta Foreman. I think that that's going to be, whether it's longest rush or total yards, no DJ reader still for the Bengals, so you can run all over them.

And again, I kind of think, and I know our guy Sharp Clark does as well, thinks that Carolina might be live there. Just a different Bengals team without Jamar Chase. Jacoby Myers, again, the Colts are by far the worst in terms of how they defend receivers against the slot. They have allowed, I think, their slot corner ranks 102nd out of 111, according to PFF's grade. He'll avoid Stephon Gilmore on the outside for the most part

actually like davante parker being out i think helps him too because you'll see more taekwon thornton running some more vertical stuff he's getting double teamed at uh like almost an elite receiver rate which is not what he is but no one needs to double davante parker so i just think that you're going to have more open area over the middle of the field for Jacoby Myers, who's continues to get fed and he'll probably open at like 50 and a half. He was like 48 and a half last week, which is ridiculous. Probably going back to both Justin Fields and Gino Smith rushing numbers because they're both facing teams that like to blitz a lot, teams that have given it up on the ground. Gino did it again last week, saved us late in the fourth quarter, but again, just sees a lot of blitzes and is not a like design run guy,

but he's fine. Tucking and scrambling had 48 on six carries in the first matchup. That's hung at 18 and a half, which I think is a pretty good look. So, and then Hopkins, I think it's kind of interesting. I'm almost willing to pay the juice and the receptions.

I think that's probably the way I'd go minus one 30 on over six and a half, but I think he's just, he's such a massive part of that team. I think there's just going to be a lot of plays in that game. So those are some of the ones that I'm looking at. Did we get James Conner news yet? No James Conner news. So, uh, tackles official tackle props, 14 and five over at a four for 4. Didn't get some of the ones we wanted posted last week, but the ones that we did worked out pretty well. We're going to go with Ryan Neal again, our guy last week who got us home for the Seahawks. They posted him finally.

Box safety for Seattle playing the Jamal Adams role. He's going to get a lot of chances here. Got hurt, left the game a bunch of times last week with cramps. Still got home for us over five and a half. They'll probably post it at five and a half again. We will go back to the well there. Javon Holland is a safety for Miami. He took on the box role last week with Brandon Jones heading to the IR.

Had 12 tackles, played 30% in the box last week. We know that the Bears want to run the football. I think Javon Holland, based off of maybe his media projection, based off what he was doing early in the season, he'll probably only be posted at like four and a half or five and a half. And he's got a role change, which is not being accounted for. So I think that's going to be a nice look there too. And then Quay Walker, who is a moron and got himself tossed in that game

against the Bills the other night, the linebacker for the Packers, probably sees a lot of work here. He will – he's 13 tackles the week before against Washington. Devondre Campbell hurt his calf. He's probably out. So you're looking at every down roll for Walker and a lot of plays in that game against the Lions. So I don't think he's going to be suspended. We haven't seen anything. He probably would have been already. If you saw that game, he randomly just

pushed a coach or, you know, undressed player on the sideline and got himself tossed in that game, but almost had six and a half tackles before he got tossed. So full game here against the Lions. Quay Walker is going to be a look for me this week. So again, betting subs at 444 in the Discord. We'll get those sent to you most likely Sunday morning because they're waiting as long as possible to hang the props on the tackles. So Connor, is there anything that's on your list

that we haven't touched on that you kind of want to get to? I want to hit some CH unders, Pacheco, maybe carry overs. You know, I mean, I just, they did a little switch last week in terms of like their roles. Pacheco technically started a tough matchup against the Titans, strong run defense. I think some CH unders there, even though they're going to be like probably, I don't know, 25 yards. I think still the under is going to be a good look. I don't know. I think Higby props are dropping right now.

I think Higby overs could be interesting. We talked about this with the Rams matchup here against the Bucs. I feel like with Cup kind of not a hundred percent and the offensive line still not in necessarily great shape here. The only way the Rams are going to move the ball is by going with like quick passes to, you know, Cup or Higby and Cup's not a hundred percent. Then I feel like Higby might be the guy to soak that up a little bit. So I think that's interesting. Antonio Gibson receiving overs, no JD McKissick, you know, he was already kind of soaking up the only pass work there was.

And now I think Brian Robinson is probably not that guy. So no McKissick. I think Gibson should, I mean, should be involved in the pass game at least a little bit. Connor and I were talking about this too. It was a little nugget from Seth Walder from ESPN who does a lot of their analytic stuff. Been 30 running backs this season who have at least a hundred routes on the year.

They've been targeted at an 18% rate against man and a 25% rate against zone. So, and then also they're more efficient too you're seeing a reception on 21 against zone versus just 12 against man and minnesota is running the highest rate of zone defense of the week so that also kind of bodes well with that little nugget too a lot of cover too as well so the antonio gibson stuff and the receiving overs make a lot of sense with kind of that little, that piece there too. So we will now get to some listener questions.

Again, if you're hanging out in the chat, fire away, we will see what we can get to here. Go for it. All right. We'll, we'll be,

we'll hold up the, our end of the bargain here with rolling through some of these questions. All right. So what do we got here? Zach hurts over 39 receiving yards. Seattle's been terrible against tight ends this season, but we've seen a little bit of a change in Ertz. Ertz was kind of a layup for us.

Four for four subscribers. We hit Ertz reception number repeatedly this season. And I like that probably more. You could still maybe selling on that versus the yards for urts because we know he just literally catches the ball turns around falls down um but he has seen less work let me see what that actually is it's he only has four and five targets each of the past two weeks i kind of like the under but uh it's just because seattle's been so bad against the tight end i didn't play it i was gonna play the under because

i'm like man since deand, man, since DeAndre, it's since DeAndre Hopkins came back. Now they've run down more healthy still. Like, you know, I think that they're probably gonna, I don't know. It's just the, the matchup makes it so much more appealing. If there was not like, like the blatantly worst matchup, you know, I would definitely be on the unders. Yeah.

I mean, look, he's, he's got the same route participation as he's had for the last six weeks he's around like 90 every every game but you know the two weeks before we had hopkins back 24 target per route run 21 target per route run last two weeks 10 it's literally cut in half and last week he had a 4.2 average depth of target. Again, this guy's not doing anything after he catches it. So if he's literally just catching these little layups and falling down, 39.5 is too much.

So, again, if you liked it and you're bullish in this matchup, because as Connor said, like the Seattle thing is kind of real, it would be receptions for me. But I think and a half is probably a decent look to the under so yeah this is it's just kind of different with the way that they've used you know rondell in the slot there too and yeah sorry zacher it was a great run but uh the time has passed all right what else we got here i'm on raw where are you you on Amon Ra this week? I mean, love Amon Ra. The yardage is a little high for me.

It's like mid-70s. Six and a half receptions is juiced up. I think at minus 130, kind of like it, but it's a high number and minus 130 is tough to do. Connor would laugh at me if I posted that for sure. So maybe a same game parlay in tying into some other stuff. It's a high threshold. Again, I don't think that the Hawkinson stuff impacts him a ton,

but it probably doesn't hurt. Connor, what do you think about Amon Ra? Yeah, I was kind of like praying we were going to get another 5.5. We played the over 5.5 receptions last week, late in the week. Just the more we kept talking about it. We talked about it on our live show on Sunday morning, and I was like, yeah, this just has to be a play. And that cashed.

I mean, should have cashed in the first half, actually. And then it ended up being a little bit of a sweat after he had a goose egg in the third quarter. But, you know, easily ended up over five catches. Now six and a half, minus 130, as you said. I think the over is still actually fine. I mean, even at minus 130, I think that's probably still the right look. It's just that, especially with, it looks like Josh Reynolds is probably out too. So it's just that especially with it looks like josh reynolds is probably out too uh so it's just gonna be kalief raymond yeah he's beginning to work

yeah kalief and naman ra though i mean like how much work can kalief raymond really get i mean like i don't know yeah well i mean what is he uh 91 percent uh route participation three straight he's got four short games with a catch of at least 20 yards i was encouraging to see his role stay the same with i'm on raw back so um yeah i mean i like it but i it's just it's it's tough i mean last week at five and a half it was because we weren't super sure about how healthy he was and he's he's had a little bit of you know touch and go play time over the last handful of weeks but had any thoughts on uh you know lions touch and go play time over the last handful of weeks. But Pat, any thoughts on, you know, Lions passing game guys? I mean, is it who, I don't know what Mitchell's first name is.

I want to say James Mitchell. Cause it looks like Wright might be out as well. Get a look at a rookie tight end. I don't know if they'll post numbers on them, but like on DraftKings, I like him at 2,500 bucks. Yeah. James Mitchell is like a, this is like a virginia tech thing where

they have these like former quarterbacks that they because james mitchell is the same thing right wasn't he like a quarterback connor at uh at v tech who i think he's like another logan thomas no he's like james mitchell's like the same thing he's like logan thomas part two oh same dude yeah i mean i i would believe it uh well shout Logan Thomas, man. I miss that guy. He was my guy for a little bit there, but now gone, forgotten, I feel like. James Mitchell will be interesting if Brock Wright is out. Probably be pretty low numbers on James Mitchell. I mean, I don't know.

Can we really talk ourselves into betting a James Mitchell over? I feel like. Oh, no. What if the over is eight and a half? Well, then, yeah. If the over is eight and a half, yeah. I'm with Pat What if the over is 8.5? Yeah, if the over is 8.5. I'm with Pat. It's probably more of a DraftKings play. He'll catch his one in the end zone, and that's about it. It's like Quentin Tarantino

that played last night, or whatever that guy's was. The tight end with the... I don't know what his name was. Yeah. Taran Quintentino or something. Yeah, yeah. Quintarano? Quintariano? Quintoriano. I don't know. All right, let's see what else we got here.

Green Bay's offense is a mess. We agree. Yeah, Pitt, Heinz Field, formerly of Heinz Field, they also let college and high school games get played there, which is just absolutely wild. It's amazing because in European soccer stadiums, or even soccer stadiums, you don't even have to touch the grass. Even if you're remotely in play, you don't even have to see it. It's amazing because in European soccer stadiums, or even soccer stadiums, you're not even allowed to touch the grass. Even if you're remotely in play, you're not even allowed to see it. It's nuts.

I don't understand this question per se. Do you have Stevenson higher than St. Brown because of the Lions' inconsistent play or because of St. Brown's injury history this season? Probably talking about our rankings. Okay. I'm going to use it as a chance to talk about DeAndre Stevenvenson or romandre stevenson who's going to have a a nice workload perhaps because it looks like harris is dnp again today he's out sick so not a great matchup against

the colts but if it's going to be just romandre who has been an absolute beast in the passing game uh total yards on remandre is going to be an interesting look here as well that gets uh posted anytime before sunday morning so um yeah referencing the rankings connor and i aren't in charge of the rankings or the projections specifically so we can't help you with that but uh you can take it up with John Paulson uh I'm not sure exactly what that is all right fields 233 rushing and passing for fields um thoughts on that Pat I don't mind that actually Miami's defense sucks and yeah maybe I guess Bradley Chubb gonna see like a full complement of snaps here I would guess situational yeah yeah so maybe on third downs only. I mean, with the way that they've designed runs for him recently,

even if Claypool only has a few design plays, they'll probably go deep chase, and he might come down with one. So I actually like the over in that. I think that, too. And I am bullish on Fields rushing yards here, too. We've seen Josh Allen. We've seen Lamar go for big games, too. They will bring the blitz.

And I think the Bradley Chubb, if he plays, even probably helps a little bit more to see him flushed out they're obviously being more intentional about those justin fields rushing attempts as well so uh you also asked about christian kirk pat touched on that raheem moster i'm a little worried that jeff wilson comes in because it is the same offense that he knows from san francisco so i'm staying away from anything raheem i actually think raheem unders might even be worth a look pat do you have any feel for you know brother raheem and how that's gonna go kenneth walker over 72 rushing yards i mean the dude breaks big ones every week uh i've not played it but obviously looked at it quite a bit think the volume is nice here connor any thoughts about

kenneth walker i was looking at this maybe rushing receiving too. They were talking up, Pete Carroll was saying how they haven't even like officially like, or I guess like released him or, you know, like, you know, fully unlocked his potential, which I don't know. I mean, could lead to some more pass catching snaps if that's what they're looking for. So I was looking at maybe like a rushing receiving combined that's in like the mid eighties. You know, he got there and he's gotten there just in rushing alone the past three weeks including a game against arizona uh i mean it's minus 130 on drafting because i'm not going to lay an over uh yardage prop on minus 130 but i think if you could find reasonable juice something i've been looking at actually i've been dabbling and considering i know you were on to last week it came back to bite you a little bit because you

just didn't break a long run but uh i think it's kind of a decent look here. Yeah, I don't hate it. We've seen teams actually lean more pass-heavy against the Cardinals too. They've been pretty decent against the run. But I think this guy might just kind of be an exception to the rule. Maybe I go back to the well on the longest prop, longest rush instead. Jared Goff's rushing prop is two and a half. He's been over that number

five of seven games for the last five. You're looking for something. I felt like a male under. On that? But the over normally hits. Low threshold. Low number, single digit rushing numbers for you have been pretty successful this season.

Yeah, listen, if you would move that number to five and a half or six and a half, then he generally goes under. But two and a half is really low. Hot photos of your sister? You're a scumbag. Why are you posting hot photos of your sister? Get out of here. What is going on here?

It's your sister, man. You bringing the porn bots right now, Noonan? I don't know, but like... What else we got? Pat, you got anything else for the listeners ah my drafting show dropped on mayo media network so you can go check that out tambo and i he won 61k last night it's like a regular thing now print fest it's insane you know i am definitely obviously in on the challenge you know what all i care about now pat i just want to see jordan

and tori get back together i do not not. I can't stay in Tori. Really? A lot of people can't stay in Jordan. I love Jordan. I do too. That's me. Yeah. I love Jordan too.

Softy. Like a good love story. Did you watch this week's episode? I did not watch this week's yet. Okay. So nevermind. Yeah. Behind probably, probably tonight.

Connor, how's your challenge experience been so far? It's been, It's been great. I got a little bit more time this weekend now that I've dedicated myself to sobriety for as long as possible. So I have time not to drink and to watch the challenge. So here we are. I'm excited. I'm excited about this for you.

All right. What time are the live shows on Sunday? Live shows are for our subscribers. It's in our Discord at 4 for 4. 10.15 on 11.15 Eastern time. I once used a non-Eastern time in a conversation with Pat and he scolded me. Everyone uses Eastern time. 11.15 Eastern in our Discord for 4 for 4 subscribers. Again,, 444.com slash plans. The betting sub is half off. Access to everything on the site. And again, reach out to us on Twitter at 444football, at 444bets, Connor, myself,

and we will get you a discount on top of that as well, get you into the Discord. I'll take you through the end of football season, through the end of February. We're rolling. We got other sports, sports NBA college hoops we got MMA lots of great stuff going on in the 444 discord so check that out again don't forget to download and listen to everything

on the Pat Mayo experience check out Pat's YouTube page Mayo Media Network smash the like button subscribe Pat does a lot of great content goes a long way in helping him do so and he can do cool things like join us weekly to talk about props so that wraps this for this week for Pat Pat does a lot of great content goes a long way in helping him do so and you do cool things like join us weekly to talk about props so that wraps us for this week for Pat and Connor I'm Ryan we'll see you next week