Move The Line - Expert NFL Wild Card 2023 Player PROP BETS | Top Picks, Predictions & Odds

Episode Date: January 12, 2024

Dive into the thrilling world of NFL Wild Card week player prop bets and explore the 2023 season's standout player prop bets. Your ultimate guide for expert insights on top selections, NFL forecasts, and betting odds, spotlighting the likes of Mike Evans and other NFL players. We provide unique perspectives on the most enticing NFL player prop bets for Wild Card week, perfect for both experienced wagerers and those new to the scene.Our goal is to elevate your betting journey with tactical wisdom and professional advice, helping you to achieve greater triumphs in your NFL Wild Card betting endeavors.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  / movethelinenfl  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  / rynoonan  Follow John on Twitter 👉🏼  / sloprules  Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

Hello and welcome to Move the Line Prop Drop Show presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan, back for Super Wildcard Weekend to talk about the best way and the most profitable way to bet on NFL football. And that is here through Player Props. We are live here 2 p.m. Eastern every Friday on the 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel. We are here to give out our favorite props of the Wild Card Weekend and to take your questions. It's our favorite part of the show. If you're able to hang out with us now on YouTube, jump jump in the chat let us know what your favorite prop look is for the week again you know only six games boards pretty populated obviously we have some injury

question marks that are uh pausing some situations but let us know what your favorite look is any thoughts on the play you want to balance it off of us any of that stuff we will get to as many as possible here at the end of the show joining us on YouTube is the best way to get these lines. They move fast. If you want to get the same number, same price, make sure you do that. We're going to continue all through the Super Bowl. We are here all the time, same channel. If you like the podcast feed, you might get some stale bread,

but a podcast should be in your feed later on Friday evenings. Support it with a thumbs up. Subscribe, all those things. It goes a long way. Joining me here, as always, back from Mexico, Connor Allen, what's going on? Yeah, not a whole lot. I think we got some, it's a great week for unders, but I feel like a lot of it's already being accounted for with the weather and everything, but I think there could still be a little bit of meat on the bone. We'll get to that a little bit later, but I'm excited.

Yeah, definitely some other situations. And I think, yeah, we can talk about that because there's some, yeah, it's going to be cold. It's going to be snowy. It's going to be windy in some places. Probably already accounted for,

but maybe we can capture some of that. Slop is, he took Connor's place on vacation. He's somewhere tropical. Smart time to do it as we are in the middle of this polar vortex. So we sucked in one of our own here from the Chicagoland area, the managing editor of all digital media at FanDuel. This is great timing, sponsor of the show. It is our friend, Jim Sanis. Jim, welcome to the show. Appreciate

it. How are we doing? I'm doing great. I needed a distraction from some round two, three balls for the Sony Open. So I figured I might as well talk to you because I'm sure you've probably got some too, Ryan. So it was a bit selfish on my end, you know, get some, get some props from you guys and not think about what Russell Henley is doing in round two. He doesn't tee off till five. So I'm okay from that perspective, but I'd rather not think about it for a bit. I got it. I got Henley in a, to make the cut parlay. So we need Henley to have a nice little day to a 100. So, you you know we can totally derail the show uh and leave connor completely in the dust by talking golf don't get any shit i mean yeah it's

like you know you start off a little golf conversation that's right three minutes later and we'll be talking about you know uh what's our name nate lashley you know we'll be back on that oh geez yeah it's luke this week every week though so we're good okay all right well hey the outright card's looking pretty good so far. I got some, you know, you just, you want to be alive after round one and you know,

Aaron Rye, Justin Rose, Brendan Todd. I had Seawood Kim over Rose yesterday and did not go well. Not a fan of Justin. He just knows on the poop list for a bit. So we're, we're ignoring him for a while.

That's fair. That's fair. We hit Seawood here last year. This is a good, I love this course. I love this event. It's always a profitable one. for a while that's fair that's fair we i hit see what we were last year this is a good i love this course i love this event it's always a profitable one so anyway bets for golf subscribe there uh we have plenty of content as well uh we're gonna do football today for now uh maybe jim and i will do golf after the show we get two episodes to move the line each week this is prop drop obviously game previews so if you want to get a little bit more size totals uh you know hands in the dirt in terms of matchup specific stuff connor myself and sharp clark do that on wednesdays

3 p.m uh or 4 p.m eastern same youtube channel same podcast feed as well so subscribe we're going to continue there through the super bowl obviously as well if you want to get the betting subscription you want to get access to all that we do at four for four we're running up to the end of the season that's only going to take you through the end of february so it's a very truncated subscription but again we're still betting mma we're betting nba uh we'll get you a little feel for all that we have because if you in season play dfs high stakes season long you want all the articles tools rankings projections all that stuff that we do best ball um you can get all that too right now just 1999 so just access to our discord i think we'll pay for that We get access to all the picks.

Even the picks that Connor and I are going to put out today, to be transparent, we give to the subscribers shortly before talking about them on the show to reward our people while being able to get the best of the line as these move very fast. If you want to play in any of the pick-em sites, Vivid Picks, Underdog, what else is out there, Prize Picks, all those things, we have channels for there uh for you as well there so subscribe more information the show notes 444.com slash plans check it out

all right like i said live lines no stale bread these are things that you can get currently right now connor the floor is yours super wild card weekend uh what do you got for us to get started yeah it looks like my notification just went through on the phone there uh while i was it out. So yeah, I mean, this breaks my heart, but I got to do it to a tongue of my law. I'm going to go with under 230 and a half passing yards, a couple of different outs, I think on this under here. So first off, let's just start with the weather here. I mean, we're looking at this, one of the coldest games in NFL history, temperatures are zero degrees, wind chill, 25 degree with the windchill negative 25 degrees. Looking at wind speeds of probably up to probably around 15 miles per hour, which starts to matter for passing.

But the key here is that I talked with our old weather guy, Chris Allen, and he basically said that grip strength is a massive issue when it gets that cold. Because I mean, you can get frostbite as quick as 15 minutes per Kevin Roth if you have like exposed hands. So these guys are gonna be wearing gloves, maybe even thicker gloves, and at bare minimum on the sidelines they're going to be having their hands on the heater or those little packets. The bottom line is it's not going to be very easy to throw to the ball, especially like with guys like Tua who are not like grip it

and rip it types of guys. Like, you know, the only people we've basically seen have success throwing the ball in history is like Brett Favre in these types of conditions in like 2008 who is like, you know, a legitimate psycho, you know, jogging in cold weather, like literally crazy guy out there. So that's not Tua. And I think that in this spot here, Baylon Waddle's banged up. The last time that these teams met, only threw up 190 yards, despite them going down 21 to zero. It's a tough matchup. They're more of a run funnel defense. So like they're easier to run on than pass on. So a lot of different ways. I think this goes under.

So two 30 and a half, even though it's a lot lower than like his normal median line throughout the season, I think it's a good look on the under. I'm so proud of you. Cause I know this is hard. It's probably hard for you. Cause I love the dolphins.

I'm not even dolphins fan. I just love them. You are a card carrying member of two and on. This is like, you were an early adapter to like there was it didn't even exist i was so yeah this is this is all right this is commitment to the best of the number and the best play taking in situation jim what are your thoughts here on two and obviously this game in general it could be wild yeah i mean looking at the the passing yards prop from my homes too

that one's down six yards from where it was this morning so we're seeing some movement that way uh I have the under for this game at when it got to 44 and a half I thought that was a good look it's still 44 right now so uh hasn't moved a ton but like that wind matters a lot uh I care I care more about wind than weather and like even when I'm not accounting for like the the temperature like I still think the under is the best way to go and that that plays well for uh passing yardage too so i think that this makes a lot of sense given the injuries to the pass catchers injuries to the offensive line which have gotten better than what they were before but still not ideal and i think they'll try to keep things on the ground here i do want to check out raheem mostard unders too uh despite the fact i think they run heavy because i just kind of don't like his role as much as most people do. But I think it just,

in general, looking at a lot of unders in this game, I think two is probably the ideal way to do so on the dolphin side. The Mahomes, when I was looking at two, my issue is just like the dolphins defense is so beat up. And when they didn't get pressure, you know,

last week on Josh Allen, I mean, he was like borderline flawless. And if you're not going to be able to pressure Patrick Mahomes, like I know his pass catcher stink, but like, you know, anytime they do have to pass the ball, I'm just worried. Whereas the Chiefs defense is at least good.

It's weather plus a good matchup. Whereas the other one, it's like if this was a regular game without any weather, I mean, Mahomes could throw for 300 pretty easy, I think, against this Dolphins defense. Yeah, I've looked at some of the Chiefs cornerback stuff too, like McDuffie four and a half tackles plus money. That's a play that I've – well, we went to McDuffie in this game in Germany. He got there very, very quickly.

I just worry about the play volume sustains. You've got to have completions to get tackles, especially at the cornerback position, and that just makes me a little bit nervous. So I'm sure some of our subscribers are wondering why McDuffie hasn't been a play already. So that's probably why. Jeff's in the chat. Uh, Jeff tough weekend for you,

Jeff. Uh, Jeff's a big kicker guy. Uh, loves to share some of his, uh, his field goal props. I don't know. It's not great weather conditions for some field goals here,

but we'll, we'll see what Jessica forces the show goes on. But yeah, Hawaiian Tebow, uh, Connors is stewing in the inside, uh, though he's keeping a really calm demeanor on the outside.

All right, Jim floors, yours first play here for a super wildcard weekend. So same game. is stewing in the inside although he's keeping a really calm demeanor on the outside all right jim floor's yours first play here for uh super wild card weekend so same game it's actually the only over i like uh for this game is isaiah pacheco 86 and a half rushing plus receiving yards uh that's minus 114 if angel sportsbook right now this is more so it's not because of the injuries to miami it's not because of weather It's because of the role that he has in this offense when there's no Jerick McKinnon, which is why I want to go rushing plus receiving. It's two outs towards and over here.

In the full games that Pacheco has played without McKinnon, he's had 89 yards in scrimmage, 123, and then 165 in that Bengals game. And with how effective they were in that Bengals game, I'd kind of expect them to kind of want to keep things on the ground again now Miami does have some good defensive tackles but they still rank to 16th against the rush based on number fire schedule adjusted metrics so you can get them on the ground I think again the Chiefs given the weather probably will want to do so here I did think about Pacheco for a touchdown, but because I like the under in this game, I kind of don't want to like, you know, bite off my, or is it cut off my, my nose to spite my

face? Whatever that saying is. I didn't want to, you know, work against myself with the Pacheco touchdown bet, but this is minus one 14, uh, as well. I think that's why I prefer to go with a yardage bet than a touchdown bet is that I don't think there'll be a ton of points in this game. This is the one that does stand out here. It's really just Pacheco's role without McKinnon is really, really robust. And I think this is a great way to take advantage of that role. So Pacheco 86 and a half rushing plus receiving yards minus one 14 is where I'd be looking there. I like it. I was flirting with Pacheco carries over this morning as well. So I can, I can definitely get here.nor any thoughts uh on the

pacheco i like that handicap no i love it it's one that i was looking at because of the whole no jerek mckinnon like he's seeing like all the receiving work basically um yeah it's one that i've considered i haven't played officially but i was maybe dabbling in some alts to alt rushing receiving i think is a good look um so yeah because i mean if he booms it's just going to be awesome too plus like he's the exact type of back, like cold weather back runs hard runs, you know, just like a lot of motion, you know, he's just not going to be wanting to be tackled. So I think a lot of subjective angles there to kind of support that. We talked about it a little bit in the game preview show and it is subjective.

There's definitely, you know, something to it though. But like these guys aren't all from Miami, but like they've lived in Miami for the last couple of months and it's like your blood thins out. That's cold. That is, you know, it just, it's human nature. Yeah. You're going to be heat warmers, you know, all this stuff, blankets, coats on the side, man, you get out there and you're out there for a sustained drive with someone maybe in the third or fourth quarter, who's been just kind of beating you up in the face for like a couple hours.'s just it's human nature like that it's just it's harder and again like it's not something that we like typically are going to subscribe to or like building it

to any model it is narrative driven but like i think it's okay sometimes to remember that these this game is played on the field and going to be played in some really wonky conditions this week and i think it matters so that's not even part of Jim's handicap. He's fantastic in it. And I like this play, my first one too. I think the conditions are a little wild. I think it actually maybe helps support a little bit. I'm going to go with Jalen Warren over three and a half receptions.

This is plus 120 on FanDuel. He's been cruising over this as of late um especially with mason rudolph he's talking with every uh five straight in every game with rudolph at quarterback naji's taking on a larger role especially on early downs but like it's just been worn on pass downs long down the distance third down stuff you know naji maybe we'll get some work in the passing game on base downs, but Warren is really kind of starting to emerge. We thought maybe he was taking over some of the early down work,

and it feels like he's kind of shifted back into somewhat of a third down back. And look, it's going to be nasty. There's not going to be a lot of passing, and having it over in terms of a passing game isn't great. When you look at Warren on the season, he already has a negative 1.8 yard average depth of target. So he's not massively impacted here by the weather. And I don't really like the yards here.

Even last week against the Ravens in that sloppy game, he caught five balls for 17 yards. Again, just couldn't get his footing, couldn't break anything yardage wise, but went over his three and a half reception line again at plus money. So I'm going to go back to the well, even though we could have just,

I don't know, Sharknado with snow and what's going on here. But again, double-digit dogs, bad environments. Mason Rudolph not going to be able to push the ball down the field. Checkdowns to his running back seems very viable and not massively impacted by the game here. Jim, what are your thoughts on Warren here at plus money? Yeah, I think it makes a lot of sense his role has been awesome um for a while now uh if you look at him since their bye week that's when they started to like really become a pretty efficient running team and that's when warren's role really increased he's at 4.1 targets per

game in that span so it's not a huge amount of buffer above three and a half catches but he has also been getting more work like you said in the passing game specifically recently and like you said the weather does align pretty well with this one so i think it would make a lot of sense um i still this is probably stupid i still like the over in this game honestly i know it's like the weirdest weather you've ever seen and the wind is very high and like i have wind speed is a pretty heavy factor in my model but i still can't sniff 34 and a half so i think that seeing some passing here is still in play and i hope i hope he's efficient on those targets too and those catches because i could uh i need to find a way to get out on this over here yeah need pittsburgh to buoy that a little bit

yeah connor any thoughts on this yeah there's a of things that I've been mulling over with the Steelers side too. So obviously both teams, I think are specifically going to want to want to come in run heavy. But I think that after Buffalo gets a lead, you know, like Steelers have been extremely run heavy, but a lot of that's because they've been winning and that's because

they've been ahead. Mason Rudolph has a strong arm. I mean, he's not very accurate, but he has a strong arm. So like he can push the ball through the wind. I think that they'll end up having to throw the ball a little bit more than we're expecting. And so like, I worry because if I felt like this was gonna be a close game, I think you

could safely take the under and both. But like when they're down 10, like they're not going to be, they can't just run the ball every single play. I mean, they, they could, but you know, like they're, they're going to have to throw the ball eventually. And I think Warren's going to be involved there. So my only concern is if it doesn't get out of hand, then Mason Rudolph maybe only does have 25 attempts, but that's like the only devil's advocate where I'm playing to this because

his role is fantastic. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, just a floor falls out from a play volume standpoint. Yeah, for sure. I mean,

any overs dying on the, on the floor in that situation. So yeah, I was looking at some of the like longest, I think there's some like, you know, I like the longest reception longest completion plays there's wondering if those are properly accounted for they're pretty they're pretty short relative to what they typically are like when you look at you know george pickens or something like that but again like yeah the weather's an issue the wind's an issue but like as people are talking about in

the chat tackling is an issue at times uh you know, footing when the offensive player knows where they're going. Like, it's what kind of, we always talk about like, you know, whether or unless it's extreme, doesn't matter so much because the offense has an advantage. This is one of those scenarios where I think we're in extreme counting

weather situations, but it doesn't mean that we can't, to Jim's point, still get to an over 34, still have some big plays because someone slips, breaks a tackle and things happen. So I don't know if, I don't know what to do do with them but i'm definitely still mulling some of those over because they're good plays that i'd like to make so all right uh connor you sent out a round

robin tweet so this is the spicy section of the show we like to go a little bit off the board round robin parlays same game parlays uh poorly correlated parlays with boosted juice what are we doing here do you want to share the round robin or uh what else you got for us here in the spicy section yeah we'll touch on the round robin first off last week uh kenneth walker cost me well it didn't cost me anything but prevented me from winning like 10k basically so he we had nico collins alt over we had jared goff's alt over because basically played like the the, you know, chance that maybe if you played the whole game, it was a great matchup. And then we had Kenneth Walker's all over, had 70 yards with 14 minutes left in the third

quarter, finished with 78. We needed 80 for like 10K and then like another, like 110 for like another 10, 15K. And we wound up winning like 2K each instead which obviously is great but you know it's it's not 20k you know that's for sure uh so anyways point is the way that we're doing this the way we're doing like round robinning is we're taking five different alts or four or five different alts that are all plus 500 and then putting in a little bit of money on every single combination so the twos the threes the foursives, everything. So for this week, I'm looking at James Cook, all rushing yards over 99 and a half. You can find plus 500 at draft games there. I think it's interesting. Again, you can do this on FanDuel

as well, but just shop around for wherever you'll find the odds are best. So over a hundred yards there, we've already talked about all the snow in this game. I think snow, wind, everything could force them to be more run heavy. Steelers run defense has been good, but I think the work could be there. And a plus 500 is a great number. CJ Stroud over 28 and a half rushing yards. Ran, did not run a bunch in college, but ran a lot against Georgia when it mattered most. Ran a lot against Indianapolis when it mattered most last week. Already has a 40 yard rushing yard game under his belt against the Jags.

I mean, he's way more athletic than people think. So I think against his Browns defense, the plays good man. Defense gets a lot of pressure. Maybe he scoots two, three, four times and picks up 30 yards. Again, five to one CD lamb, a hundred and over 148 yards. I know it's again, it's a massive number, but it's a hundred yards. So it's not a hundred yards. Like he is such a good matchup over the middle of the field against his

Packers defense. That does not do a good job scheming Jerry Alexander looks he may not even play DNP twice if he does play something 100% I think that's a good look and then last two here I'll try and wrap this up Cooper Cup over 112 and a half receiving yards I really like this uh Rams passing game here and just the way the alts out, like Stafford's plus 500 was like 350 yards or something. So that's, I mean, it seemed pretty aggressive compared to cup 112. I think takes a bigger step forward here against the past funnel lions. Then the last one here, a little bit off the wall, me, Cole Hardman, 40 plus receiving yards. You know, there's just

Cadareous Tony's not going to play or we'll play a little bit. You know, there's just some rumors about his role, you know, expanding potentially a little bit. So that's all I'll say. I would think there would be like, you've been going under the well with like with Watson a lot in that spot. I was thinking that might be.

It was in play. I thought about it. Yeah. I don't know. I mean, it's just like the weather is not great i mean honestly this is the one i feel least good about uh one because it's you know miko hardman but i mean these other guys suck like mbs we've talked about every week he is horrible he is like one of

the worst receivers like he has the hips like they should have like played him every snap last week and fed him like 30 balls to like snap him out of it because like what's the downside like they should have just fed him last week in order to like get his brain right something's going on there yeah it's not great yeah so i don't know i think we see a good bit of good bit of hardman i mean all it takes is one 40 yards is nothing with moms yeah yeah i think you made a good point i mean i like obviously anything associated with rams passing game i think most of us do in the cup yeah cup and in puka receptions looked low and I can get there in the yards too, for sure. So yeah, don't hate that at all. Pretty, I would call a five leg alt round robin parlay, a pretty spicy way to start it off.

Jim, where are you at? The floor? I mean, the bars raise high after that. We're not going that spicy. No, we're not going that spicy, but we're taking a similar approach. We're like looking at alternate markets in situations where I think there's a bit of fluidity with a player's role. So I want to go to Jameson Williams, 70 plus receiving yards, a fan dual sports book. It's plus three 90 right now. And the reason I want to go to him specifically is because there is some fluidity with his role. And this is going to ignore the Laporta thing for a second but like going back to i think it was week 15 or in 16 in those two games it seemed like he was getting more like non-d gaffy targets where it's just like okay chuck it see what happens and pray kind of thing he was getting more like diverse targets i guess the way that I would say that he got six and seven targets in those

two games. And then in the Dallas game, he had three targets for 69 yards. And that was with him leaving the game after just 17 routes and that injury now didn't play last week, but then was full in practice on Wednesday. So to me, that says the injury is of no concern. And that's really what I want to see because I care a lot about injuries, but with him, if he's a full practice by Wednesday, fully good to go. So that's kind of why I think that Williams role is getting better overall and then you potentially either take Sam Laporta out of the equation or make him not be 100% and it leads to potentially one or two more targets go in the direction of a guy who can rack up yards in a hurry so to me what this is with Williams is he of a guy who can rack up yards in a hurry. So to me, what this is with

Williams is he is a player who can now get to an alternate market via two routes. He can get there via volume potentially if he maintains the role he was, I think, establishing before he got banged up. And then also he can get there via the downfield looks because he's just a, a freak athlete and can do stuff like that. Yet the, the Jared Goff revenge narrative, maybe the first play of the game, Ben Johnson draws up a shot, you know, for Jared Goff to give a double barreled freedom rockets to the, to the Ram sideline kind of thing. You know, we'll go, we'll go down narrative street again. Sure. Why not? So I think that Williams is becoming a bit less volatile now, but I don't mean that in the negative sense. I mean that we can still at

the high end of his range of outcomes while his median expectation is getting higher. And that to me is a good spot to look at all overs because you suddenly have potentially multiple routes and over versus just the single route of, you know, he breaks off a long play. Yeah, no, I think that's a great point. He's been pretty popular in the show, especially in the section this season. I know slop's gone to the well not a few times. Connor doesn't need much to get a Jammo play to twist your arm. Any thoughts there, Connor?

No, I love it. I think the more that I read into this game environment, the more that I think that there is going to just be successful passing on both sides, not as much running as I think we'd expect, maybe some from Detroit, but I really don't think the Rams are gonna be able to run the ball all that well or consistently,

which leads me to believe that Stafford is just going to keep slinging it. And I think the Lions respond there. Plus, yeah, you don't have to push me to bet on Jameson Williams. I'm a, I'm a fan. I'm a supporter,

you know, even through the ups and downs here, I think that he'll continue to improve and 70 plus he's going to have one of these games. It's going to be like six for one 70. I just may not be this season, but he'll have one next year maybe this week uh all right i i you know i feel i feel relatively boring comparatively um uh just a couple of um you know do a different one we haven't done these the

inversely correlated same game parlays that we could pick off um particularly on draft kings where they you know give us the benefit of uh of really boosting these odds for us i feel like these are like we can almost name them the mike evans specials because i feel like he's kind of made for these types of of parlays and we've got to like bump on his reception number this week too he's typically four and a half uh we're juiced out a little bit on the uh under on the five and a half but his lines are five and a half so on evans you can go under five and a half receptions but uh take him at 100 plus receiving yards uh and on draft kings that is going to pay 17 to one uh again just you

know big plays it's how mike evans wins you can catch again five balls 100, just, you know, big plays. It's how Mike Evans wins. You know, you can catch, again, five balls, 100 yards. That's, you know, we got a winner here on Mike Evans. Very much, I feel like, in the range of outcomes. Obviously higher than his, you know, his binary prop number from a reception standpoint or receiving yard standpoint. But it's Mike Evans. A lot of big plays. The other one that I like, too, because I knew Connor was going to talk about

CeeDee Lamb a little bit. I love the passing environment in that game as well. But Brandon Cooks, I think we've seen Cooks somewhat correlated to some of the better passing performances from Dak Prescott this season. And Cooks has had somewhat of a fluctuating average at the target, but we know how he wins. And if you look at the last, well, for the entire season, the explosive pass rate allowed, it's been a problem for the Packers.

Last four weeks in particular, it's been like drastic. I think 13% explosive pass rate allowed. We mentioned Jair Alexander might not be in this game. Hasn't been really good. Anyway, sorry, Jim. I know you're, that's your team. I love Jair. It's not been great as of late.

So you're going to get maybe even a best case scenario, probably a 80% Jair Alexander in the spot. So if you look at Brandon Cooks, we don't need him to do too much. The reception line is 3.5, so we go under 3.5 receptions. Over 70 yards, and we're playing 17-1. So again, we don't need him to get to the 100 that we're asking Mike Evans. It's really not been a big part of Cooks' role this year. We're looking at basically one big one, or maybe two kind of above his longest reception type plays, and he gets us there. So,

Jim, any thoughts there? I was real close to making Brandon Cooks mine. 60 plus, I think, is a pretty good number for him if you want a more traditional number for Cooks. If you look at his splits indoors and outdoors, Evan Selvey used to have this bit with tutu atwell where he'd say tutu atwell if he's outdoor outdoors can't get any yards he like blows away because he's so light cooks is a bit like stockier like a little bit thicker than that but i think the tutu atwell evan silva theory applies to brandon cooks because when he's outdoors he's at 0.6 yards for route run indoors at 1.8. Most of that's from that 172 yard games. Like, you know,

greatest all it was all from one game, but like that means he can also have big games. So I was very on cooks. I have this one personally as well for like an alt number on Brandon cooks for those exact reasons you laid out. So I'm, I'm really into him for sure. Just in general,

but like for all markets specifically, because he does have that upside within his range of outcomes. Love it. Love it. Love it. Connor, any thoughts? Yeah, I think I'm looking at FanDuel too.

It's like three and a half and 60 yards is like 15 to one, three and a half and 70 yards is 24 to one on FanDuel. Even better on FanDuel. Okay. Yeah. Look at that. So it's interesting if you, I know Jim probably doesn't love hearing this,

but you know, if you shop around, yeah, you can. Banner off today, even though they are sponsored, we took their banner off. So we're free to go. Yeah. We're, we're fumbling, but no, it's, it's good. My next play is from Vandal though. So that's, you know,

that's a good we're making up ground there. At least. Jalen Warren was a fan to play. So we're good. Don't yell at us. All right. So Connor, you can go back to you for the, you know, basic stuff. If you're hanging out with us,

reminder to jump in the chat, let us know some plays, let us know some things that you want us to talk about. Some looks that you have here. And we'll get to as many as possible at the end. Yeah, no, a hundred percent.

All right. So we're sticking with the under train here. I played some overs early in the week. Um, I know that's usually not my vibe. I usually do unders in the discord and then overs here cause they're more fun, but I'm sticking with some unders here. So we're going to go to the, uh, Philly and bucks game here. A lot of uncertainty here, but I'm going to go with the under on Rashad White's carries. It's at 16 and a half. The bucks are three point dogs here. And if you look at Rashad White's games, every single time that they've lost, he's only had more than 17 carries in one of those

games. And when they win, he has more than those, those carries. I'm kind of a Bucs guy here. I think, or an Eagles guy here. I think that the Eagles win and take care of business. We look at the Bucs. Anytime they played anyone decent, they've lost by basically double digits, including to the Eagles earlier in the season. Obviously there's some injury concerns here. AJ Brown, not sure if he's going to play. DeMonta Smith was a full go. Jalen Hurts, his throwing hand is a little bit messed up. That being said, they had a ton of success on the ground last time as well

with DeAndre Swift and with Kenneth Gainwell. So I think that we see the Eagles skew run heavy here and probably dominate time of possession, potentially get a lead. This Bucs team, meanwhile, they fed Rashad White, but again, it's only been when they're winning. When they are in neutral game scripts or negative game scripts, they throw a bunch, and that matches up well against the Eagles secondary, who's not very good. They're more of a pass funnel as well. So can you get there to 17 plus carries? Sure, but if they're losing at all,

I think that's an out. If they're just regular game planning, they want to throw the ball more because it's better, I think that's an out as well. So two different outs there, I think, for his under on the carries. 16 and a half at fanduel minus 114 uh other books posting worse numbers but i think i would still play at like minus 130 probably do i feel like that play correlates with whatever your handicap is for the game right because if it feels game script dependent yeah i think that that's kind of how you want to view it there is like if you agree that like the eagle's gonna win this game like that's where you want to go but also i think that that's kind of how you want to view it. There is like, if you agree that like the Eagles are going to win this game, like that's where you want to go. But also I think that White's numbers in general are kind of high.

So like, I think that even if you are, if you think the books are correct on their handicap of this game, you could still justify Rashad White unders. Like I thought a bit about his rushing plus receiving under 91 and a half. Cause like, that's, that's a pretty fair number for him as a baseline,

but he got kind of banged up week 18. I know he's okay, but he got banged up there um when they were down against the saints that game they were down 23 nothing there was a bit more chase edmunds in that game than you typically see so honestly i think he's on a little bit shakier ground than he had been i've been high on rashad white this whole year and it benefited from plenty of times but like the the past couple of weeks, whether it be the injuries or ineffectiveness, whatever it may be, there's been some like downsides there. So I think that in general, Rashad White price or props are a little bit lofty. So even if you think that again, Eagles are properly handicapped at minus three, I still

think there is some, there are some routes to checking out Rashad White unders right now. Nice. All right. I like it, Connor. Slops off the show, and then you bring all the unders back for the people. I know. He hates unders, but I love him. I usually keep him in privates that way. He doesn't throw up on the show. Well, we don't have an engaged listener. We can't get his feedback on the play because he just, he tunes out.

You know, he starts going on his phone and, you know, looking at his next plays and not good for the show production either. You know, he just, he tunes out. So, so I bring him back. Jim was, you know, not only engaged, he had a good, he had a good point there too. So, all right, Ba, floor back to you, Jim's your,

your third play here. So I'm conflicted on which way to go with this. I want to buy into Jordan Love. I think there are two routes to doing so. You could do so via his rushing prop it's seven and a half a fan duel it's minus 118 on the over so you're paying a bit there to get there his passing prop is 242 and a half minus 114 he's actually on over both these numbers in 10 out of 17 games so far this year and I kind of think that even if they lose this game, the Packers offense will be able to move the football.

I'm going to go with the passing yards prop is my preferred route. But I think the the the rushing number is also pretty interesting. Now, he went over this number, as I mentioned, in 10 out of 17 games, just 59 percent. And only four of those games were indoors, which he does get here going down to Dallas. And we generally see passing efficiency, passing volume increase when games are indoors. And this is very likely the healthiest his pass catchers have been the entire year. Christian Watson, questionable,

which is like the most rosy outcome you could have for Christian Watson. Jaden Reed, not listed on the injury report anymore. Romeo Dobbs, good to go too. So like he's got everyone healthy, potentially for the first time this entire year. The role players are playing really well. Luke Musgrave coming back from that kidney as well. to so like he's got everyone healthy potentially for the first time this entire year the role players are playing really well uh luke musgrave coming back from that kidney as well so you've

got all these guys healthy so i think this packers offense will be efficient and they'll be able to keep pace which could allow them to be run heavy maybe and that could put you towards aaron jones but also love is efficient enough right now to still get close to 242 and a half on non elite volume. And I think that's why I want to look here. So 242 and a half, the number for love for the passing yardage number, that's actually like six yards lower than every other book right now. Uh, so if you're price shopping and you want an over, got to fanduel um we'll get that actual plug in there um but i think that like i think that there there is reason to be high on on this number just because i think the packers do play pretty well at offense i'm not gonna talk about their defense but i think

their offense plays pretty well here and i think that love is a big part of that you know we made a good case for uh pro packers at the time on our show on wednesday it was seven and a half um i know clark is even on packers money line um i think that it's you know that i would still be interested in the packers but yeah i mean i i'm very pro love uh we'll get there momentarily i like it connor what do you think here on uh on jim's breakdown of the passing yards no just just keep rolling because i i just saw your push notification here so my next play is jordan love over two and a half rushing attempts this is uh plus 130 we're just hanging out plus money bangers today that's that's all we got jaylen uh jaylen warren was plus 120 uh we gave you the alts and now jordan love plus 130 on draft kings uh this out there. Like if you have prop builders, plus 132.

It's plus money everywhere that you could find it. He has at least two in every game this season. So again, like we need three. But at least like we have two every single game. And he's topped it in nine to 17. This has been a long health theory of ours here on the show. And mobile quarterbacks run more in the playoffs. And our guy, TJ Hernandez, did some math to kind of back this up for us back in 2022.

We haven't updated it. To be fair, love falls outside of the scope that we held there. What TJ did was he went back to 2000, found that all quarterbacks that run for at least 20 yards per game in the regular season average roughly six yards more per game in the playoffs. Now, we are sort of that with love but the the i think the handicap is the same this is a mobile quarterback who's willing to run even though we didn't hit the threshold of what we were looking for i want to be transparent there he still i think does fit in a quarterback that i think is going to run a little bit then we have the other part too what do we also look at when we're looking

to target rushing quarterbacks we want to look at teams that play a higher than average rate of man coverage and teams that like the blitz dallas is like check check check check check across the board here so um the yardage total as jim said is out there seven and a half i think that's fine last week against the bears three attempts negative one yard so like i think if you like yardage and we've seen him like look at some of his best rushing games this season have been like the saints you know a team that plays man at a higher than average rate and likes to blitz um you know the vikings sit in zone but they blitz their face off there's some of the better games for love from a rushing standpoint so if you like rushing i

would look for some alts instead of just doing the seven and a half but i like the carries because it feels like a coin flip based off of what he's done. And we're getting it at plus money. So, Jim, I know what you think, Connor. What do you think? Yeah, no, I mean, I'm pretty into it, honestly. I think there's something that someone else brought it up to. And like, I was looking at it more. And it seems like kind of going through Jordan Love's games as well, you know, in a lot of their other games

where they're like winning or at least kind of dominating, he doesn't really do that that much. But if you look at early in the season when they were losing a shitload, like he's running way more. And so I think that that's kind of plays into like you're playing from behind.

You need like that gunslinger kind of just like approach of just like running a little bit more. And I think that we're going to see that here from the Packers. I do think that we're probably going to get a run out of the approach from Green Bay to start to begin with, because it's Dallas run defense dead last rushing success rate allowed. So I'm going to get bullied by the,

you know, the bills a couple of weeks ago as well. So like, I think that's probably the initial approach, but again, when Dak and CD are hooking up for 200 passing yards you know, I think it's going to be pretty tough for the Packers to stick with the run and Aaron Jones,

which is one of the things which, you know, not to carry us to another subject, but I, those Aaron Jones props, they're high, but they're rightfully high. But if they fall behind, he's going to fall way short, depending on how quickly they fall behind. So I just, I have no idea on that, on that kind of stuff. And I hate betting in that kind of volatility. I know we, we hate, we typically try to stay away from like, and again, I already played a running back reception number. It's typically a market. We try to stay away from receiving yards and receptions from running backs because they are so volatile. I've had last week, the Aaron Jones receiving yard number was way too low. I think he hit on the first drive. I kind of stalled out at like 30 yards and it's like 20 and a half again. I feel like it's a really nice, it feels really,

really nice. feels really really nice um and again they're just they're really volatile so i'm maybe staying away but it's something maybe i look for in game but yeah uh let's love what i really like especially like i said i feel like i mean that way at minus 110 minus 115 but we're getting incentivized essentially to take it so yeah and jim's on board confirmation bias i love when that happens we're building same game parlays for you here you're brandon brandon cooks love rushing and passing cd lamb alts like you can you know we're doing it for you this is you know paint by numbers you can be tony powered unders you know let's go all across the board here yes yes we didn't price it out for you but you know we put it together so yeah absolutely love it love it. So, all right. I'm a, well, so typically

I talk defensive stuff. I'll give you some tackles that I like, or some guys that maybe aren't posted yet that we, that we're going to eyeball. Right now we got a lot of stuff out. There's some games that haven't been pushed out, but there are a few out there and some guys that are coming out that actually typically aren't usually posted. And I really don't, you know, I don't know. I think the books want to give us more, which is absolutely, I absolutely love to see. Now this one, I love it.

I don't want to like overdo it here and oversell it. But I did a lot of work on this today because I was so caught off guard by this line. I thought that there was maybe something wrong with it, but I feel really good. So typically you get theoretical place. Right now you're going to get an actual tackle play to bet. We are going to take Melvin Ingram under three and a half tackles and assists. And this is plus my plus one 30 on DraftKings, plus one 23 on Caesars, MGM plus one 25. So cluster injuries on Miami sideKings, plus 123 on Caesars, MGM, plus 125. So cluster injuries on Miami's side, obviously, especially a defensive end, forced Melvin Ingram to unretire.

They brought him off the couch to start playing football. He played 75% of the snaps last week against the Bills. He did not play more than 62% of the snaps in any game last season. But again, his role is going to be larger. Phillips, Chubb, Van Ginkle, they're all on the IR. So we're probably going to see a lot of Melvin Ingram again. Bills ran 77 plays last week. It's a lot. So the 75% snap share was 58 plays.

That's a really good amount. Chiefs are middle of the pack from a play per game standpoint in the season. They have not hit 77 in a game all season. They're likely not doing it in a game all season they're likely not doing it in a polar vortex so especially when the chiefs get up i they average like just a tick over 60 plays per game so play volume could be a concern here now now we get to ingram specifically uh he did not top this at all last season at any point did he top three and a half tackles and assists now he actually had more games last year with zero than he did with three um so this is really reactive to last week he had five

so we are we're banking on last week the last week he had one and a half sacks that counts as two tackles um against the bills you know who doesn't take sacks patrick mahomes he does not take sacks uh he's lowest every zacks uh he's lowest every year basically since been in the league his pressure to sacrate is minuscule less than 10 percent he is an elite and avoiding pressure um so also we're looking at just 13.4 the tackles this season against the chiefs have come from opposing defensive ends is the fifth lowest mark in the league so again another matchup specific thing and then a bad scorekeeper spot too uh kansas city home games second fewest assists per game and the fifth fifth lowest uh just assist rate overall so

i don't think we get to 75 but again if i go ceiling outcome high play volume and he plays 75 of the snaps in the game i have him at 1.78 tackles and assists. So we're getting plus money here for him to not get to four. I absolutely love this play. We don't typically advise from multi-unit plays. I really like it. I'm not going to lie. Yeah, you did.

If you heard my phone buzz, it's because it was my two-factor authentication coming through. And it moved to plus 110 while you were talking at a certain booklet shall not be named uh pull up another one it's down to minus 101. uh i was not fast enough so i'm hammering minus 101 if you have the ability to take alts even you're gonna get like plus money over plus you get over two to one at under two and a half again like i think he's probably playing 40 to 45 plays it's just not his style he's just not a big tackle guy and a lot of defensive ends aren't uh and this is a bad matchup for him to do it so very very very reactive to a guy who's played

three games all season like his before last week 75 of the snaps he played 36 of the snaps the week before so like this is just uh this is a really good spot and, uh, saved it for the show. Yeah. I, I have like the hit rate here is right around 90% based on the projections. And the EV is hovering around a hundred percent EV, uh, based off of, uh, the, the price here, which is just why I don't think I've seen it all season. So I did a lot of work cause I'm like, what am I missing? And I'm not missing. I think we're good. I'm curious, like your thoughts though, like based on like your experience with betting, like tackle props, like Ingram was like, you know, isolated in in like the broadcast on

Sunday night. Do you think that's why the number is so high is because he got like legit screen time and like discussion from Chris Collinsworth? I think like, honestly, if I'm trying to figure out why, like that to me is the first reason I think of is because people were just talking about him a lot. Yeah. He got one and a half sacks, right. And he like hadn't played and you want, it's easy to talk about like the injuries that they've had with Chubb and Phillips going down. And now if anything, Ginkle goes down in game. So all of a sudden this guy who was sitting at,

you know, at home week 15 is now playing meaningful snaps in the team that, you know, for a playoff team yeah i mean and again like massively reactionary to the single game right this is not a guy that like i didn't even have him on to be honest transparency because he hadn't been playing i didn't even have him on miami in my sheet i had to go back i have i have his 21 22 baseline numbers i took a look at them added them in so i had what his like snaps per tackle rate and stuff are and i'm like this is just we have one game of five so he gets on the board and plus money like you know so i wasn't able to plus 125 just now so there were there were there was still

some plus money lingering i love it as long as you buzz through all the apps and are okay and being annoyed with like all the texts for two-factor notification or a two-factor two-factor authentication yeah no it's it's uh it is frustrating but yeah and they move the tackles move very quickly figured with an audience too they're going to move quickly and again we didn't give it to subscribers first so their best shot to get the 130 but yeah absolutely love it some other spots i like we've already played a few uh but yeah we have some other stuff that's going to come here it's decent tackle uh decent tackle week so i'm gonna get some volume up here no sacks that i love in particular but yeah uh connor you can uh take it take the mic and uh run us through some questions yeah sweet um all right let's see here we'll start at the top here z man almond raw over

seven at receptions jim any thoughts interest on almond raw this week i feel like it's about right but um i mean you could probably make a case for the over i gotta check the number on that uh because that's gonna influence things uh quite a bit with this one uh so a monroe over seven and a half is minus 112 uh that's a big number for me i think it's probably properly handicapped if i had to guesstimate things like I always have a hard time taking overs on like like large numbers not necessarily rushing to take unders um but like I just think for me it winds up being a no bet more often than not because like it is a really big number deservedly so given his involvement but I just have a hard time getting there like philosophically for the way I like to bet things uh you could not be speaking my language more.

That's totally agree. I mean, again, the only way that I get action to these high over overs is via alt overs like CD lamb. I mean, CD lambs, regular prop is a hundred. His alt prop at one 20 is two to one. I mean, at that point, if I'm taking over a hundred, like, I mean, the, the volatility there is massive. And again, we took over one 48 for five to one for his regular prop there.

So I'm in raw again, I think if you want to play it, take like nine or 10 receptions. Why not? Cool. Let's see here. We got a little bit more Pacheco talk. Daddy Johnny asked Pacheco attempts instead. I think that, Jim, you were on the rushing

and receiving instead. Do you like the attempts? I think it's like 15 and a half, right? Yeah. He's at 15 and a half right yeah uh he's at 15 and a half right now minus 136 so i think that's where you're looking at all attempts as well kind of taking the thesis of no mckinnon ceh's dust um game script potentially weather i think all those things adding up so i think looking at alternate numbers on pacheco probably the way that

i would want to go and you mentioned like allts and like rushing plus receiving i like that look is too so i think in general for him and just because minus 136 is tough for me to get to yeah let's take a look at all numbers for pacheco there yeah mgm has a minus 120 if you can get down anything there that would be your best number for 15 and a half uh we are moving to 16 and a half in some spots as well yeah makes sense also david brought in you're forgetting too one of the hardest thing to do number 15 and a half. We are moving to 16 and a half in some spots as well. Yeah. Makes sense. Also, David brought in,

you're forgetting to one of the hardest thing to do in cold weather is tackling. He meant tackling. He put talking, but check out runs. Like it's also, it's going to be that cold. Talking is hard to say.

Anybody. Oh man. I'm curious your thoughts here. Cause I go back and forth on this. So Bennett Clark brings up 56 yards for Kelsey is over under his playoff average is 86. I mean, the man has been dust for the last second half of the season. It looks like he's just, you know, swoony for Taylor Swift, kind of chubby out there running, you know, dad running, but he's Travis Kelsey and it's the playoffs and he's awesome. And Patrick Rome is awesome.

Like, I feel like it's going to be one of those things that at the end of the game, you're gonna be like, no shit. It's Travis Kelsey. Of course he was going to go for like eight for 103 touchdowns or it's going to be like, yeah, he's dust. He has four catches for 40 yards and zero touchdowns. I mean,

is that where you're at noon? And I mean, like, I don't know what to do with it to be honest. Yeah. If we want to go down like a narrative street for like, I think the third time on the show also like it's the, it's the playoffs and playoffs.

It's also like, if the playoffs and playoffs. It's also like if Mahomes is going to like try to like force volume to someone in this game, he's probably stuffing in Travis Kelsey's belly as much as he can. So that probably helps it too. Like he knows what's happening in key moments. Some of these just jabronis on the outside. It's gone very poorly. So that would be part of it.

Again, like that's not like projection- that's not you know target share base it's not target per outrun based per se it hasn't gone well for kelsey but i think in a spot where the games matter even more it's probably getting fed a little bit more jim what do you think well i think that the interesting thing here is in that first matchup uh in germany it seemed like they were super key to non-kelsey the miami defense was but like do they feel like they were super key to non Kelsey, the Miami defense was but like, do they feel like they need to do that now with the way things have gone? So like he may actually benefit from the dustiness in a very weird way if they decide like now we're good. And like I think that would with the checker running as well as he has recently could allocate it's a Vic Fangio

defense are never going to like allocate a ton of resources towards stopping the run, but maybe they shift a bit more that direction given the weather and stuff. So I can see it. I'm not going to bet it myself, but I could see the path to it for Kelsey at least. Yeah, I'd be a little bit more worried. So they haven't done a lot of shadowing with Jalen Ramsey this season, but if they happen to – like if Xavier Howard was healthy, maybe they'd be willing to do that but he's not so like I think it's going to be really hard for them to justify shadowing Jalen Ramsey

who also like um so like you know it could be a dust ball battle out there but like you know I don't know it's it's that's probably not happening he's probably not getting all that attention but yeah I think it's it's uh interesting look and I you're right. Like, you probably kick yourself either way, regardless of, you know, if it falls short or if it hits. You're like, damn, why didn't I hit 56 and a half? Like, halftime. First half line. Yeah, right.

Every time it's third down and six, they get like an eight-yard completion to Kelsey, and you're going to be like, oh, shit, this is obvious. But, ah, it is what it is. You know, hindsight analysis doesn't always work. Let's see here. MBS is running wind sprints. Yeah, he sucks.

That's all he does is run cardio. Baker absolutely feeds Evans, so the underception scares me. I mean, yeah, it's definitely possible slash true, but at the same time, I think that when you're getting the plus odds at such good value, like with uncorrelated parlay, I think that kind of is the point of it. Like it's not going to be a favored play because it's like 17-1, so yeah and also i mean let's look at look look here real quick he's been feeding him right last two games three receptions three receptions uh seven receptions four one like so

these he's he's topped uh five and a half receptions once in december uh since december so Once in December, since December. So like, again, big place, you know, 86 yards, 162, 146. We see these games from him. So I get it, but it's kind of baked in. We're getting paid for it in a way we probably shouldn't be with these inversely correlated parlays. Yeah, 100%. David is backing Jim's play here. Jameson will have his yards by the third quarter.

Shout out to you, David. Let's hope so. That'd be great. Jeff Stenberg's trying to sell his tickets live on stream. This is hilarious. Tell him I'll take it if anyone's interested. Hyundai Club seats with parking pass. I guess contact Jeff on Twitter.

I don't know where they would reach you, but that's awesome. I do have a Jeff special, though. For anyone with prize picks or vivid, Tyler Tyler Bass under six and a half kicking points is in my mind, just outrageous. Like, I think that is crazy because you're looking at a game where 25 mile per hour winds snow, like for you to lose that, he, they have to score two field goals and two touchdowns, which I mean, probably not going to even kick two field goals, let alone one. Anytime it's fourth and five or less, the Bills are going to go for it.

And then, or you need a field goal and four touchdowns. So you're looking at 31 points in this game. Like, I don't know. I've been emptying the clip on this on PrizePix. All of my promo funds, all of my money that I had saved up from the season with season-long futures are in on Tyler Bass bass under so um that might be a little crazy jim do you dabble in kicking props at all i know noonan doesn't really he's more of a defensive guy but you ever thought about that at all i should because i i care more about the weather than i should so i should probably translate that to

kicker bets but no i have not um i might need to though because that sounds outstanding yeah i mean it's only with like weather stuff i think there's always like i was hoping for a longest field goal prop a longest field goal under like 45 under 47 but i mean they're too smart they're not gonna post that but still the kicking points i think is a good look uh let's see here i like it unfortunately i was just going on here too to see if they happen to put uh melvin ingram on uh on price fix and they did not so yeah they, they're slow to react. They'll eventually put everyone on by suddenly you know by like just shortly before game time. But yeah, they we did not have a free price fix play with with Ingram. But yeah, I like

that Connor. Yeah, it's a fun little fun little spot there. I think you combine it with Kedarious Tony under 10 and a half receiving yards a good look. I mean he was hasn't played may not even play but it's limited and read said he's a good look. I mean, he hasn't played, may not even play, but it's limited. Andrew Reid said he's going to be limited. I mean, this guy might just like catch a punt and be done. Like, I don't even think he's going to play. Like, he might run fewer than five routes and he's at 10 and a half receiving yards,

which again, you can get burned on one play. You need a thick stomach, but I don't know. I'm kind of a sick human being and I kind of like those unders on 10 and a half receiving yards. Let's hear it. Josh Allen under passing attempts a lot. Jim, I think you'd, would you agree with that or disagree with that? I mean, I don't know.

It's like 28 and a half, 29 and a half. I mean, like they haven't been very pass heavy. And then you combine that with the, with the weather. I don't think anything's a lock, so I can't say that. There's no such thing. So like, I can't go that far. 28 half is pretty low so even though they have been run heavy recently the weather is what it is i still feel like that's a stay away

from me personally yeah no i totally agree so you're telling me that you're not going to be tweeting out uh you know lock in all caps and then a play with uh my skin crawls every time that i see it like a visceral reaction every single time just uh yeah yeah we've been pretty vocal about that on the show it's uh you know like i just hear the responsible gaming like ad reads in my head every time i hear the word lock it's like gambling problem call uh 1-800-522-4700 in wyoming you know bust them all out uh it's so good um awesome i see we got michael any good ways to play cd lamb great spot yeah i think it's just alts we touched on that uh let's hear last five of six i believe love has gone under his passing total but packers should be down all game uh and then we have him saying packers will

get ass pounded at dallas i think we have disagreements there david on that but uh we you know i think jim do you think that was you taking plus seven two or like to win or are you just uh just bet me over i have seven and a half and i have the money line um so i didn't want to publish i i mean i talked about it on monday i guess on my show but like i didn't talk about the money line there but i've if we're being honest this is the trust tree right i can be honest about my uh money line ticket dave we have plus seven and a half i think i know i do i think we talk yeah yeah so we're good assa pounded was he is he italian uh and then michael in your defense over 250 and seven last nine games got past a slow weird start

to the season figure something out i totally agree he's looked really good in a lot of games i mean not it was our handicap for the yeah it was our cap for the entire season right connor like like yeah first year really as a starter every single pass catcher except what like the gora is like in like there is a first or second year guy so like that's not even doesn't even count but like is the all these guys are young like it's it makes sense that they've kind of come into their own so i understand if you think that they're going to go to dallas to get boat raced dallas has done that to a lot of come into their own. So I understand if you think that they're going to go to Dallas and get boat raced,

Dallas has done that to a lot of teams this season at home, usually bad teams. I don't really think that that's what this version of the Packers team is. I mean, I I'm with Connor. I think the over is probably the best play because there's no scenario really where I think the Packers cover and this doesn't, you don't see a ton of points,

but yeah, seven and a half. I feel like having that ticket. Yeah, for sure. let's see here we got Jeff Lance and his kicker props undefeated I'm getting cocky parlaying Elliot plus 110 Carlson plus 125 to both make over one and a half field goals I don't think that Jeff has dropped a loser in the chat all season so uh take that for what it's worth uh you know I've

tailed a couple here and there um but I gave you my kicker prop of the week already uh this is an interesting one here between cup and puka jim any thoughts there uh over five and a half percent for both either i kind of like both i think you can play either are valuable but any like leans on either one so my one worry with that would be uh that demarcus robinson's been getting a lot of work like he's actually earning targets at a decent clip now that he's been playing. If you look at the games with Robinson playing a lot and with Higby playing, Puka's target share is 26% and Cup is 24%. That's a good chunk below their season-long numbers.

So that would give me a bit of pause is that weirdly Demarcus Robinson is earning targets. So somehow I am now concerned about a couple of things with them. So I didn't expect to say that in 2024, but here we are. Here's the answer. You go to FanDuel and you bet on Matthew Stafford over 23 and a half. I wanted to bet it. I want to actually was going to talk about the show.

It's on my list. It's kind of steamed out elsewhere. FanDuel is kind of like lone wolf right now in the market holding it at minus 114 to 23 and a half 24 and a half in some spots like draft keys is like minus 130 135 so yeah i like i like even because we've talked about it right we talked about it again like the rams surprisingly as much as they throw the football they have a pretty strong like run lean uh when they get up they love to run the football it's kind of tough to do against the lions but like even if we don't have the volume from stafford because i was trying to play around with attempts i think you could be really efficient in this spot so i was trying to go for kyron unders because of that and like

i looked at like you just look at the game log and it's like nope i'm good like like they've they've not only been running but like they've been efficient so even though it's a a bad matchup like i couldn't i i tried to to talk myself into unders there but i couldn't yeah and if you like the rams i think that's a bad a bad play too because of the way right volume right exactly so yeah i was looking at i mean it opened in like that well i got a 92 at prize picks it open and then it was like hovering in the high 80s and i was like okay maybe i should consider this started digging more last time i got around it was like 82 oh my god forget it like at this point i mean he's gonna see 17 18 carries just you know like how efficient he is there um cool and then shark burners what's up for four guys great to be here awesome show

thanks shark burners appreciate you um jm four guys. Great to be here. Awesome show. Thanks. Shark burners. Appreciate you. Um, JMD two point conversion attempt in pit Buffalo plus one 55. I kind of like this. This is fun. Yeah. Yeah. I mean like one, one,

two point conversion attempts, not even, not even conversion attempt. Uh, JMD, where's that at? Uh, yeah.

Yeah. I mean, it's probably going to be like some random, you know, offshore or whatever, but Hey, you know, no, uh, no shame there, wherever you a cool book, Jay. Yeah, yeah. I mean, it's probably going to be like some random offshore or whatever. But hey, no shame there. Wherever you can make money, you can make money. Let's see here. We got – we talked about Puga versus Cup.

Singletary under 65.5 rushing yards. Maybe. I don't know. His role is so good. It is. Yeah. Yeah. They even even use Pearson all last week. He he's been so good that I've stopped calling him Devin single digits. And like it broke my heart because I love that nickname. So I I think his role is great. So I I've stopped hating on him. And that's a tragic tragic turn of events

there. Yeah, motor, you know, he's been playing pretty well the you know, they're running a little bit more like they are they were weirdly and have been skewing run heavy on the first and second down and just letting Stroud bail them out open. They don't do that this week. But it happened like 16 times in the indie game. It was so frustrating, like because I had like the Texans just like they made me like it was unnecessary anxiety. Yeah, oh oh yeah when they bombed that first one nico collins i'm like oh this is gonna be sick you know they're gonna win

by like 40. and then they just kept running it with singletary for like two yards and then it'd be like an eight-yard completion to nico i'm like what what are we doing here you know like this guy could have 400 yards today um all right so single theory under is like kind of a you know maybe i think the usage is too good probably. And then let's see here. Last couple, David Atkins said Eagles to take Evans away. Godwin might be better bet. Not really sure the Eagles can take Evans away to be entirely honest, but I do think Godwin's a good bet regardless.

I think you could bet on either of them. Would you, Newton, would you agree there? Yeah. I haven't seen the Eagles take anything away for a very long time. So maybe they can schematically try that in this game uh but yeah i'm i'm i have no problem with either nice um all right jmd only place i found for the two-point conversion bet was betmgm you know i mean hey if i can't get down with a couple bucks i'm not even gonna open the app but you know if you can i think it's a pretty solid look

um and then let's see here michael yunker, this is a good question. Do you think weather is having too much of an influence on how we view player props for indoor games, just normal playing environments, but seems like they're getting labeled as all smash spots. Um, I'll give my take real quick. I think that partially that might be true as I kind of like a, you know, anchoring from the outside games, but I also do think that like rams lions both their defenses are really suspect and they have two quarterbacks can execute and then the other side like you know some other indoor games kind of the same thing there uh would you guys agree yeah i mean looking at those two games specifically like um i for my totals

model like i almost never get to high totals when there's a tight spread um just because it's not super correlated well there but like for the dallas green bay game i have a total of 49 and a half so like way up there for me i know it's not not betting it over but like it's up there and then uh for detroit and the rams uh 48.8 so like leaning towards unders and the actual totals but those are really high totals for my model, given where the spreads are at. So I think that it's proper to be high on those spots just because like wind does matter a lot for this kind of thing. Yeah.

I, I get it probably a little bit, but not, I mean, we're trying to isolate the way we break these games down independently. Like when we're handicapping, you know, Detroit and the Rams, it're handicapping, you know, Detroit and the Rams,

it's doesn't, you know, my thoughts of what's going on in Buffalo, not part of the handicap at all. So I think it's a fair question though, like in terms of where the prop market is and we want to chase overs in those spots. But I think that just kind of right for the picking in terms of the

matchups there. So, yeah. Yeah. JMD got down 36 bucks. Nice. I mean, you probably went 50 off that at 60. So it's okay. Yeah. No unit got down 36 bucks. Nice. I mean, you probably went 50 off that 60. So Hey, it's okay. Yeah.

No unit shaming here, you know, Hey, whatever, you know, buy a couple of lunches, uh, you know, in this day and age, but sweet. Awesome. Well, that was all the questions we had. Um, that was great. Love it. Jim, really appreciate you filling in, uh, stay warm this week. Let the folks know where they could find you and all your stuff. Yeah, I'm on Twitter at Jim Saunas. We have a betting podcast five days a week called Covering the Spread over at FanDuel Research. And, you know, just talking props, talking sides, totals, and stuff like that.

It's a fun time. I appreciate both of you having me on. It was good to chop it up for a bit. Love it. Yeah, I know. I know Gadoo has got you set with all the extra, you know, golf data and stuff. But, you know, let's talk. Hey, JT Poston poston's rallying man we're in a better mood now than we were when we opposed the rally he's five under for today so we're good oh baby i got we are alive

i got post in top ten so we're good let's let's let's ride poston was my shortest outright of the week i love it so yeah we're still cooking i gave gave Connor these bets. I don't know if Connor Taylor, he got a screenshot this week of the card. So we'll see. I didn't tell him. I didn't. I love the honesty at least. I do too.

I appreciate it. So, all right. Don't forget to hit the thumbs up, subscribe on your way up the door. We appreciate hanging out with us. We'll be back to talk all this next week as well. Wednesday for the game preview and Friday again for props. So for Connor and

Jim, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks everybody.