Move The Line - Expert Super Bowl LIX Player Prop Bets! | Top Picks, Predictions & Odds

Episode Date: February 8, 2025

Get ready for Super Bowl LIX with our top prop bet picks! Join us as we break down the best NFL prop bets for opening week, analyzing player performances, key matchups, and hidden opportunities to max...imize your winnings. Whether you're betting on touchdowns, yardage, or game-changing plays, we've got the insights you need to make the smartest bets. Subscribe now and start the season with a winning edge! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan  Follow John on Twitter 👉🏼    / sloprules   Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Hello and welcome to the Moving Wide Prop Drop Show presented by DraftKings Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan. Joined for the last time this season, sadly. This is the downfall of this show. The downside, I guess, because it is our last time talking about the best way and the most profitable way to bet on NFL football, and that is player props here. I mean, Connor and I will continue on. this is our last time with slot for a little while stop what's going on baby days and then it's um it's off the basketball season
Starting point is 00:00:37 then a little baseball and then we'll be right back to football. It's a vicious cycle, guys. It's like it never stops, you know? Connor, we'll keep it going. We won't be talking about games. This is our last game for a little while. But, you know, it's a good one. It's the best menu. This is earlier than ever, I feel like, the menu came out. It's an extensive menu, like Sunday night even.
Starting point is 00:01:01 Literally. So, like, these things have been sitting out here for a long time uh what's going on with you yeah i don't think we have too many official plays but i have like four things that i played personally that i can't like give out because i mean it's like a one out and like i don't know i mean it's gonna move and then people are gonna piss so um congrats anyone listening to the show i'll probably drop it some unofficial in the discord as well but um yeah nothing nothing too crazy yeah kind of the same i have one play that i think will count as an official play because there are multiple
Starting point is 00:01:30 outs but i'm with you there's some other random stuff that i haven't had the luck to find at multiple spots uh but you know interesting conversations and then also i think it's maybe maybe we do a couple of same game parlays depending on how we think the games are going to go. Maybe a pro-Chief same-game parlay, a pro-Eagles same-game parlay. We can still do a bigger one if you guys want to get real wonky because I'm guessing some of our game props and stuff will not be available for parlays and such. But, yeah, even a little less formal than we normally are
Starting point is 00:02:04 because Super Bowl is tricky. So, Connor, you're giving me a hard time because I have to go after the show and pick up my sister and my brother-in-law from the airport because that's the nice thing to do. Someone's coming in town. They're coming from Florida, hanging out for the weekend, watch the Superbowl. I mean, you think that I should be putting them in an Uber instead of driving 20 minutes to pick them up. Yeah. Like, well, so this is a big debate in our friend group because like a lot of my friends are airport couples. Um, me and my wife are not airport couple, a couple at all. So like if we're, if one of us is going on a trip somewhere, we Uber, like we do not
Starting point is 00:02:45 drive the other person in the airport. We do not pick the other person from the airport. And the reasoning is because, well, partially going there and back from the city is like, I mean, sometimes it's a two hour endeavor with the traffic on 90, 94. Um, cause it's not about dropping them off. Like, I mean, I live with her. I see her every day. Like, I don't know what i'm gaining in that extra 45 minutes
Starting point is 00:03:05 to an hour or whatever so like yeah maybe if someone's coming to town or like if they come in late here i'll pick them up but there is zero chance my friend's coming home at like 3 p.m like his ass is ubering like i'm not spending an hour and a half in the car just to go see him like i don't know to me that's like i don't know to me that's just like a waste of time and i would rather pay the 30 bucks so i can sit at home and do nothing while they just take an Uber. Ubers are nice. Get a nice Uber, a comfort or something.
Starting point is 00:03:33 Slav, how far away from Logan are you? 20 minutes, no traffic, probably three and a half hours with traffic. Logan traffic can be brutal. Yeah, it's brutal. When I went to Chicago, I literally took it took, I don't know, like a few days it felt like to get from the airport to actually Chicago.
Starting point is 00:03:55 So that sucked. But I'm a big like, I'll let you pick me up guy. But I really don't want to pick you up in the airport i will i will but i don't want to yeah that's fair oh yeah i'm closer so connor's coming from you know in the heart of the city i'm out here in the northwest suburbs easier for me to get to the airport because it is in the northwest suburbs um you know my in-laws actually live like in the airport like there's a there's a
Starting point is 00:04:26 a runway that like it's the last like five seconds of your descent um so they're real close so sometimes we make that work which is a nice thing to have people like park a car there and but anyway i guess i'm the kind of guy that'll pick you up from the airport um so it's good for the listeners to know who we are as people. You're a way better guy than I am. I'll admit it. It's definitely the nice thing to do. I just can't get there.
Starting point is 00:04:53 Slav, is your dog okay? She's got a toy that she really likes that she knows how to squeak, which is wild because none of them know how to squeak, but she knows how to do this one. She just runs around with it. I think she waits for shows to start and then she's like grab that toy so i'm gonna figure out what's going on with that um and by what what i mean by that i'm gonna take the toy just like that yeah soon she comes right back around and she's gone we got uh tim on your side good to know noonan isn't a pos i would say this is a very old school
Starting point is 00:05:32 thing there's new school thing in general too like my dad will drive an hour plus to pick me up some of my friends will like who are in the suburbs will always pick me up or vice versa but uh any of the people that i know in the city do not pick each other up they're just like i take the blue line before the blue line's great you could um send an uber like that ain't bad you know what i mean like that feels like you kind of the hospitality thing's hitting you're not drivers picking you up yeah like yeah now i gotta i got you an uber but that's nice of me oh you know also different here's another different piece of it too this lot maybe you can relate a little bit to dad
Starting point is 00:06:12 i work from home i don't get a lot of alone time so that drive even to the airport that window time by myself is such a unique experience in my day-to-day life that like my own podcast or music or you know reading some books like i can i can do that get that alone time that's of value to me so you're not necessarily there the honeymoon for sure is over like something when we live together i see her all the time i'm sticking her ass in an u. Like, wow, Maggie, tough. Tough scene. Connor is over getting to see you. I'm very happy to put you in the Uber. But, yeah, anyway, I guess I'm the combination of the old guy
Starting point is 00:06:53 and the nice guy. I'll take it. Yeah. Take it. Slops with me, but a little bit. The alone time works. It's just the alone time in traffic kind of sucks. But at the end of the day, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:07:09 Being alone does probably trump sitting in traffic. Yeah. Yeah, I'll take it. Anyway, that's where I'm headed after we finish. But let's jump into it here. Connor, I know you have nothing official. I'll give you the floor first to, you know, whatever. Send out a thing or two that you like.
Starting point is 00:07:26 I don't know how many exactly you have We can go around and because I have a handful Of things I would love to get your guys thoughts on I think you're pretty Interesting place yeah I got four they're not Super long-winded explanations here we'll Start with one that you and I were talking about Before the show So it's I mean were you gonna send you were gonna send that out were you
Starting point is 00:07:42 No no no you're good I'm not gonna send it out Cool cool so we played On Caesars No, I mean, were you going to send, you were going to send that out, were you? No, no, no, you're good. I'm not going to send it out. Cool. I didn't write it. So we played on Caesar's, uh, number of snaps in shotgun formation over 97 and a half. Um, if you go to, I think it's like game specials and then, um, scroll down or game props, maybe it's novelty props and scroll down. Um, you can find it. So basically the math behind this is so newton's projections for total plays in the game he has 61.3 i think for the
Starting point is 00:08:11 chief 63.6 for the eagles which is pretty conservative the over under over under right now total plays 128 that's obviously like 124 right now the current rate of shotgun excluding pistol so pistol is still kind of a big tbd in this whole scenario whether that even counts but without pistol this is from fantasy points data uh patrick holmes 85 of um shotgun uh in the shotgun on dropbacks uh just in general and then hurts 89 so technically that would be um 108 so like combined with them if you do the math on those plays there yeah so so on real quick on caesars if you go to the main menu and you go all the way over to total it's way over there um total so just things that are in the game
Starting point is 00:08:59 um it's on you know if you scroll to the bottom, it's, that's where it is. Sorry. No. Yeah. So, um, yeah, I mean, just in general, like these guys are,
Starting point is 00:09:10 these teams are just in shotgun a lot. Um, you know, it's maybe not, not a banger. I mean, cause I think there's just like some uncertainty about, I don't know,
Starting point is 00:09:17 everything like with these markets, like you don't know how they're going to grade it. You don't know what the plays are like, who's even counting this stuff. Like, what are they even counting off of? We don't know. Like based going to grade it. You don't know what the plays are. Like, who's even counting this stuff? Like, what are they even counting off of? We don't know. Like, based on our math, I think it's probably, you know, a plus EV play.
Starting point is 00:09:31 So I popped it for a little bit, but nothing too crazy. Yeah. Yeah, only on Caesars as of now. And this is the trouble with some of these is I can't find them everywhere. And if they are, they're on the same spot. So maybe they'll be somewhere else. But i've only seen that on on caesars so that's kind of the struggle with some of this random stuff for this game or you know there's more in the menu to be had but some of it is definitely some like one-off stuff specifically for books so yeah um i think it's
Starting point is 00:10:01 a great number started looking at it on mond Monday, 95.5 or something like that. I still think at 97.5, I still think we have a little bit of an edge. So I like that one quite a bit. Slav, I'm guessing you didn't get in the weeds on shotgun snaps. Yeah, no, not a lot. I grazed over that chapter in the book of handicapping. It's a good one. I think it's a good one.
Starting point is 00:10:24 Yeah, I might get back to it in the offseason maybe. Yeah. It's not one to sweat during the game. I don't recommend you over here with a ledger counting shotguns. Yeah, I can't do that. You'll look in the bank account in the end, see if you got more money than you lost. All right, Slop, what do you got?
Starting point is 00:10:42 Keep it a little rapid fire. I got a lot of rando stuff. Hit it, whatever you want. Good. This stuff could work. How about Dallas Goddard, 25-yard longest reception. That's plus 190 at Fanatics. That's not bad.
Starting point is 00:11:02 He's done this in every game except for one in the playoffs, all three really because the one game he didn't was 24 yards. So, I mean, somehow he's getting loose. Chiefs gave up a 34-yarder to Dalton Schultz. Like, I don't know how many – I don't know. I don't know how many of these happened throughout the season, but we're talking the Super Bowl, the Eagles get behind, weird stuff. Again, 25 yards, not a lot for Dallas Goddard.
Starting point is 00:11:27 Plus 190 is pretty much what sold me. Like if this was plus 150, I wouldn't even have thought about it. So that tells you this is definitely price sensitive. Connor, we're pro Dallas Goddard. I think it was our first play of the week. Yeah, Dallas Goddard alts have to be a leg in any of the parlays we build i mean that's just it can be longest it can be in general um i think he's gonna eat yeah okay good i'm glad we're in yeah dude there's just this is a shit matchup for me like i'm looking through it it's like man i'm tied in though good football teams maybe we got
Starting point is 00:12:02 another tight end coming from the other side i don't know okay all right oh well it feels like a lifetime ago that we played 46 and a half on dallas goddard but that is still for the upcoming game that has not happened yet because it was like monday morning inches yes it's like a monday morning bet so um i got another one that i think is caesars only uh which i'm bummed about but If you go into Caesars under specials, you scroll down. There are Super Bowl player specials. It's the very first one in the player special section. It is called We Work Quick, which I'm not sure if these are supposed to have interesting names. I don't know what that means.
Starting point is 00:12:44 A.J. Brown. I don't know what that means. A.J. Brown. I don't know what it means. A.J. Brown and Xavier Worthy to have a reception in the first quarter. I know, Connor, you hate these quarter props, first half props. They burn you. But look through it a little bit. So, you know, first of all, I think we have a decent price. Because if you look at their individual prices to catch a pass in the first quarter, Brown is like minus three 40 worthy is minus two 80.
Starting point is 00:13:09 You parlay that you're like minus one 35. So we're getting minus one 15 here. So I feel like we're not getting absolutely ranked in price. Um, and then on the season, only Kelsey has more for a first quarter targets than these two guys. Brown has 33 first quarter targets. That is 12 more than the next closest Eagle. We've seen the Eagles come out and be a little bit more pass-centric early in games. So I think there's something to be said for that. And then we've just seen an increase in Xavier Worthy's role every week.
Starting point is 00:13:38 So I feel like we're getting a decent price. These guys are very heavily involved. Minus 115 feels like a decent look. Caesars only both brown and worthy to catch the ball in the first quarter so um again you can't go against it slops you don't even have the option to take the other side but uh connor's head yeah no i mean i i don't like i i don't never like disagree logically with any of these things it's just like they all look so good right like i just can't win them like so that's my reasoning is I'm over 17 on these quarter and half props.
Starting point is 00:14:09 I just got to see one go through the net, but it's looking like me and rec league basketball out there. Just nothing's going through. It's like 0 for a million. It's brutal. Connor, good pick setter. Not necessarily a guy you want to shoot. That's okay.
Starting point is 00:14:22 Everyone's got a role. Rebounds and setting picks. Only one ball picks only one ball oh now you got a player yep yeah your team's down the court so just set some picks there's only one ball we'll take our shot yeah only one a lot of clapping you know some good defense there we go yeah yeah hype man patrick's spot on the worst of the player to have x yards in each quarter a half fanduel has a bunch of them you'll find if you have not looked at these you will find five or six that you like i guarantee you you'll very easy to be like oh man i think there's like a uh saquon and and hurts to each have five yards in each quarter and it's like two to one you're like how does that miss?
Starting point is 00:15:05 Well, watch the game. I promise something will happen. Something wonky will happen, and it'll miss. So be careful with those. With those quarter ones, there's one way that I can guarantee you a guy will catch a ball in the second quarter, and that's if I bet him to catch one in the first. Literally, first play of second quarter, that guy's going nuts.
Starting point is 00:15:25 And that's why I just can't do the quarter props. It's so frustrating. Yeah, I get it. I have one more. That's kind of like that later in the game, but maybe a little less specific, but I think it's actually some decent looks,
Starting point is 00:15:37 but I kind of wrote you got. Yeah, I got a fun one. I think someone, well, this is actually fun for me, but not fun for, I don't think anyone else.
Starting point is 00:15:46 So will either team of a player rush for 100 or more yards? Plus 160, no. It's basically kind of just like fading Saquon in the sense that like, if they cancel him down at all, like, you know, you're at plus 160 on it. They don't really, no book really offers all thunders anymore. Not that I'd be super interested in anyways, but I mean, plus 160, I think that's fine.
Starting point is 00:16:11 No one else is going to come close to a hundred yards. So it's basically just betting against Saquon at plus 160. Like I think there is an outcome where he has less than a hundred yards, maybe not the most likely, but again, it's not 50, 50, it's plus 160. So I played it for a little bit. I think it was like plus 190 earlier in the week which obviously is better but i still think it's worth a little pop here nothing crazy again just like a little one here that was again unfortunately caesar's rushing prop scroll way
Starting point is 00:16:37 down and then it says any player to record 100 plus rushing yards um i hate it but what do you think slap um i don't love it but i write about the plus 160 and my next play was based on saquon not being able to run the ball or run it very effectively so saquon 25 plus receiving yards is another way to kind of get in on maybe he doesn't. That's plus 205 at Vandal. It was higher than that yesterday. I'm not sure what it was. I can't remember off the top of my head. But it was, I think, 270.
Starting point is 00:17:15 So it's gone down to 205. But 205 is still a good price. What if? Like, I mean, the Chiefs know, dude. Like, he's good. You know what I mean? Like, what if? Like, I don't know. Do you think the Commanders didn what I mean? Like, what if – I don't know.
Starting point is 00:17:25 Do you think the Commanders didn't know? Did the Commanders know? I don't know. That's what I'm saying. That's my problem. I think the Chiefs might have the horses, though, if that makes sense. Like, I think they might have the horses to actually maybe pull it off. Like, I get what you're saying, but, like, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:17:39 Like, so make Jalen – I get it. Hurts beat you, so you still want to get the ball to Saquon, though. And he can catch the ball. We've all seen him do it. 25 yards, not a lot, especially for a guy like him. Rams, I think against the Rams, he had 27 yards, and he ran for 200 yards. So even if he does have a return every day, he still could have 25 receiving yards.
Starting point is 00:17:59 So I don't know why that should be plus 205. And there's the out of he gets game scripted out of running. I don't know how likely that is, but that could happen too. So I don't know. I just think you have a few different outs with that. Again, a screen pass. The guy takes it 30 yards and doesn't catch it on the pass. Guess what, man?
Starting point is 00:18:20 You cashed. So there's ways. And like I said, it is Saquon Barkley. You're banking on him getting the ball, in which if I'm the Eagles, I'm probably trying to get him the ball. I like Saquon's longest reception over eight and a half yards for that same reason, right? You just – you pop one and you're, you know, you're in a pretty good spot.
Starting point is 00:18:39 You know what I'm saying? Yeah, and Patrick's calling that out in the chat too. I think it's interesting. I'm just on the side of just the more I've thought about this game, handicapping it. Connor and I have talked a couple times. We did a Fang show together. We did our show together.
Starting point is 00:18:53 And the more I'm just thinking about this, I'm just like I didn't want to be on the other side of the Chiefs. But I just think it's a good spot for Saquon. I think we've seen this spot where teams go above and beyond. They're like men in the box rates to try to stop him, and that's how we get these 30, 50-yard bangers. Even if it's just like three, two, three, 40, it's just like, man, it's easier for him to actually do that when you don't stay deep,
Starting point is 00:19:20 when you do come up and try to really take him out. So, yeah, i'm on some pro eagles stuff here for sure and to be to be clear i think that you can actually play alts the other way too like like i think that you could actually you could play like longest 40 plus or 50 plus yard run something like that i mean he had a 60 yard run last week and still went under his rushing total of 125 yeah like that you know for them i still don't know like would they let you parlay that i don't know i mean you never you never know i mean it's one way to find out one way to find out to explain if you go to a super bowl party
Starting point is 00:20:02 explain to your buddy who only watches one game a year and doesn't bet on any of them. It's like, wait, you bet under 110 and over 50 for longest? It's like, buddy, go to the other side of the room, man. I don't think we can talk. Yeah. Well, maybe another day. We're not the same.
Starting point is 00:20:20 Yeah. I don't have enough time to explain why this is good what do you think where do you let you combine it i don't think caesars lets you combine i doubt caesars will let you do it maybe fandle they seem to be reasonable about letting you do nonsense let's hear you can do now see they don't have the sgp thing on there either so they like they don't let you sg longest stuff with actual – yeah. Yeah, it's smart. Yeah, otherwise we'd be rich.
Starting point is 00:20:51 Longest overs, wonders. Yeah, no, Ryan, to your point, I hate when guys come at you and say, hey, this guy's good. They're going gonna key on stopping them it's a lot in the nba i hear that in the nba streets and it's like dude everybody knows that this guy's good like there there's nobody that doesn't know that they didn't just let this guy drop 40 on last time you're correct yeah i just stopped them they just couldn't do it but it's the same with taekwon but i really believe the Chiefs might have the horses to at least –
Starting point is 00:21:25 I can believe that. Might. I don't know that they do. I'm saying like I just – I had no faith in the commander's defense whatsoever, and neither with the Rams really. I mean, their run defense. It's not like it was horrible, but I mean, like I said, we'll see. We'll see.
Starting point is 00:21:39 But, yeah, that's the biggest question mark for me of this whole thing is if you don't get that right, man, you're in deep trouble with your handicap because that'll just ruin everything if he can just run wild. Well, for me, at least. I agree. Yeah. No, I was going to say that. I mean, the Chiefs have Chris Jones and Spags. I think that's the big difference versus like the commanders, you know, who I don't even, I mean, who is even starting a defensive tackle by,
Starting point is 00:22:07 by the, by the end of the game. Yeah. Johnny Newton. And then, uh, what is it? Rivera,
Starting point is 00:22:16 uh, they had, uh, with Joe with junior, the defensive coordinator and, uh, Dan, Dan Quinn defense,
Starting point is 00:22:23 but still it's like, you know, it's like, um, I don't know. It seems like a little bit of a difference you know yeah no that's i'm banking on that and i i hope i'm right i'm thinking the chiefs probably went in the last week or previous game with the bills thinking when the bills were run heavy the quarterback and running back want to run um we would rather have Josh with this, like, merry band of nobodies at receiver, see if they can beat us.
Starting point is 00:22:50 And James Cook kind of did whatever he wanted. The frustrating part of watching the game was, like, give the freaking ball to James Cook. What are you doing? So, yeah, I also think that Saquon is a level up on James Cook too, right? So he's just been kind of that special dude. And that's my only thing is that it's the breakers. It's the big ones, right?
Starting point is 00:23:07 If he doesn't go over in the longest, all these are probably fine. The Chiefs probably win. No, he's probably not going to do 100 on, you know, 24 carries. He needs to have a couple of these like flirting with the longest or popping the longest where all of a sudden, you know, he flips the field and it's completely different. So this is what happens. You've got 14 days a sudden you know flips the field and it's completely different so yeah this is what happens you got 14 days to you know break down the game and you kind of can see it from every angle for sure yeah and i mean taekwon's he's awesome he's just like
Starting point is 00:23:35 i mean the one of the best running backs not the best running back in the league right now so did you see a video of like the drill at penn I mean, it was kind of like in Oklahoma, but they had multiple dudes in there. And I mean, he had a phone booth to beat three dudes. He got all. It was just so ridiculous, dude. Penn State, Saquon. I was all in from day one on everything Saquon. And I don't know what happened after the Giants.
Starting point is 00:24:02 I just didn't bet enough draft enough do anything enough saquon because we like since day one i've been all in on him and then i just forgot about him that he's just like the best running back ever and sucks sucks i mean it was pretty rough rough stretch there at the uh at the very end so tough to tough to see um the other thing that I want to lean on that would be – that would kind of correlate well with this, and I think, Connor, you're going to like this based off of your last one. It looks like the FanDuel number is a little off. I'm going to try to look and see what else.
Starting point is 00:24:37 It's game total rushing yards under – it looks like MGM has got 288.5. Caesars, 287.5. It's a little juicy. 288.5. Caesar's 287.5. It's a little juicy. 283.5 on FanDuel. It seems like a lot of rushing yards, even if you're pro-Saquon. Now, I'm very pro-Saquon. 283 is basically that she's holding up their weight a little bit. And I'm not really there.
Starting point is 00:25:02 Like, I feel like they're not going to try that much. And I think they're not going to have a ton of success. So like Saquon's got to really do a lot of lifting. So I think if you're pro chiefs, pro Saquon under stuff, you'd probably like this under as well. That's a, that's a great look.
Starting point is 00:25:16 Like I, I struggle with some of the team stuff because of like quarterback runs count and like all that. But like, I mean, the chiefs running back probably aren't going to combine for very many yards. I mean, like their props right now are combined for like 60 something 67 and that still might be too high to be honest considering i don't think pacheco is going to be
Starting point is 00:25:33 very involved much at all and mahomes i mean we expect him to run but like i mean there's a chance that he doesn't and on the other side same with hertz like i think we expect like a very normal hertz day so basically means saquon has to run for like 125 to 150 this number to even come close um and if the eagles fall behind or if you know the chiefs fall behind early like that team's just not gonna run so it's gonna be entirely on the other one so uh yeah it's a good one i like that yeah i mean i think anytime you have these when you like have to do the math you'll find out that the math is always off. If you were adding up what the actual binary line for these guys are, they have to leave themselves a little wiggle for someone to pop off. But I don't know.
Starting point is 00:26:12 I think it works in your favor if you lean under on it, because I think that that's kind of in our favor. So, yeah, I'm seeing 283 on FanDuel, minus 110 both sides. If you just go to rushing props, total combined rushing yards in the game, I think there are better numbers out there. I know mgm is not a viable book for everybody caesars you're paying a little bit of juice on that but i don't know i lean again very pro saquon to do his thing and i still think this is a problem too high so um i'll stay in that i'll stay one more and then kick it back to you connor I think Fandle is the only other one that I've seen this with,
Starting point is 00:26:45 and it's moved a little bit. But I think it's still a really good bet. It is total chiefs to record a rushing attempt under 4.5, minus 134. So I obviously don't love laying 134. It's basically does P. Ryan get a rushing attempt or not. That's kind of how I look at it, right? We're going to have the two backs look at it right we have the two backs right you're gonna get the two backs you're gonna get a worthy attempt and Mahomes we haven't had
Starting point is 00:27:11 many P Ryan attempts even in games when uh Pacheco was out of the lineup like P Ryan still was when he's in the game it's just a two-minute drill or like you know clear passing down so I don't think we're getting a P Ryan attempt so you basically need Mahomes to play the whole game so Carson Wentz doesn't come in and get a kneel down. Hardman, I suppose there's another – you could do an end around to Hopkins or Hardman or Hollywood, but this hasn't been happening. So it feels like a P-Ride rushing attempt or not.
Starting point is 00:27:44 Any thoughts? Have you looked at that one at all no but i like it i mean that's that's kind of fun i don't know i'm like look trying to look at the best price for that um like total players with a rushing attempt um i mean i don't know that's kind of fun i like it yeah so have any thoughts on that one those are the ones i can get behind that say you're at a Super Bowl party bet. I'm hosting the Super Bowl party. I'll have 20 people in my house. You got to have some of those.
Starting point is 00:28:12 Like I said, some rando takes an end around. You're like, yeah, there we are. You know what I mean? Or they don't. Yeah. All right. Connor, what else you got on the list? Yeah, I got two more real quick.
Starting point is 00:28:27 One, Jalen Hurts' passer rating under at Caesars as well. It's like 101.5. I mean, I got in at 102 earlier. I just keep waiting, hoping that other places are going to post it. They never did. So, I mean, over 100 passer rating is just absurd considering the circumstances like he has been over that a lot this season but it basically means that he has to have like a great completion rate not throw an interception an interception just like basically immediately ends this um
Starting point is 00:28:56 and he has to throw for like a you know solid yards per attempt he can do that but it's basically like the eagles have to win in a dominant fashion like they have been because if they fall behind at all they have to throw it all. If they, the chiefs get pressure at all, like, which I think that one of those probably happens at some point in the game. Um, then Hertz is not getting a hundred pass rating 90, maybe 95, maybe again, that's like, these are good. Mahomes is at 95 and a half. So there's a formula you can play around with like the different scenarios. Uh, I mean, again, it just like has to be an Eagles dominant scenario where Hertz hits like some big ones for him to have a hundred passer rating or above.
Starting point is 00:29:30 So I don't know. I think that's good. It's a minus one 40. I still think it's fine. Honestly, I'm like, I think it should be like probably 95 or something like that. Maybe even less to be honest.
Starting point is 00:29:39 Yeah. Another one up, not a sweat life, not an enjoyable life. You don't even know what you're at. Like I did like, I would check it out. You're like, I don't even sweat life. Not an enjoyable life. You don't even know where you're at. Like I did like, I would check it out. You sweat that you don't, you honestly don't. You don't, if you're watching the game with anybody,
Starting point is 00:29:55 otherwise it'll be the last time you're watching the game with anybody. But I like the look for sure. Again, this is why these instances, I think the shotgun one, this in particular, this is why the instances, I think the shotgun one, this in particular, this is why the Super Bowl is the best. It's not just novelty, coin flip, Gatorade stuff. There's actual real game stuff that you can look into and find an edge for sure. I like it. Slap it up if you got it on the menu. All right.
Starting point is 00:30:18 So forgive me because this one I kind of found like I talked myself into it after like the fifth time through this thing. But what about, and hear me out, Noah Gray, 25 plus receiving yards. That's it. Just 25. Just a little boom, boom. Plus 300. Look, I know that he got phased out when Hollywood Brown came back. I get that.
Starting point is 00:30:42 That's documented. We all saw what happened. But if they can't get the ball to the receivers, when Hollywood Brown came back. I get that. That's documented. We all saw what happened. But if they can't get the ball to the receivers, which I don't know that they're going to be able to do, then maybe the tight ends get some looks. Against Houston, he caught three balls. The problem is he didn't go 25 yards, so that sucks. But the thing is, I don't want to take Noah Gray
Starting point is 00:31:00 to catch three balls in this game either. So you're kind of hoping on maybe catches one or two and like I said gets to 27 30 yards something like that but at 300 that's not that crazy given what tight ends have done to the Eagles in the playoffs um obviously Ertz last week but I don't like I don't totally count that i think that was just kind of a weird just a weird thing that happened but um the kid from who's the kid from green bay i think he caught like five balls like nobody was catching passes that night for the craft yeah crap so i mean i don't know i think there's legs that's all i'm saying
Starting point is 00:31:42 25 yards not a lot for plus 300. And some random guy always does something. Connor, did you dig into Noah Gray stuff at all? I did a little bit. Always. Yeah. So I think one of Noah Gray or Juju Smith-Schuster is going to have like 30 to 40 yards.
Starting point is 00:32:04 I bet on Juju, but I do think that Noah Gray or Juju Smith-Schuster is going to have like 30 to 40 yards. I bet on Juju, but I do think that Noah Gray, I like, I'm just, we're interested to see how the chiefs attack the middle of the field. It could be like trying to run the ball, run a lot of 12 personnel. Maybe they just do some like play action and just get Noah Gray and Kelsey, like wandering over the middle of the field, trying to expose the linebackers. We've met, I've mentioned it maybe six times at this point, our guy, or in Berks, you know, it's a lot of ton of receptions the last couple weeks um and so how are they going to attack that is that going to be with 12 personnel maybe a little
Starting point is 00:32:32 more noah gray is that going to be with juju and xavier worthy running over the middle like i don't know i think that both of them i like either of them those three options would be my favorite that are like underpriced right now. I would say like Hollywood, I think it's probably gonna play too much on the outside. Deandre just doesn't play. And I don't know if you saw Andy Reed's quote, by the way, from coach speak index hilarious.
Starting point is 00:32:53 It was like, it was like, are you going to play Deandre Hopkins one this week? He's like, he's been pretty happy with where his role's at. And he's okay to share with everyone else. So no, that's like literally,
Starting point is 00:33:03 he's going to see 10 cap. I thought that was a, that was a good one. But yeah, we played his under early. So yeah, I think I don't hate it. I just like, I think there's a lot of uncertainty. So I think that's almost like a live bet. Like if Juju's playing a lot early, like I'm going to probably keep betting live betting is overs,
Starting point is 00:33:20 especially if he doesn't get one early. If not, then if Noah Gray's playing early and like they're like heavier personnel to start, i don't know maybe they decide that's the best option uh i mean no gray could pop off in like over 12 and that's a great look all right i like it yeah i think you're i think you're right it could be a good live look out there too and that's be just to see what the menu is for some of this stuff too like how much of the novelty specials random stuff is still out there you know post kick um all right yeah yards i would think we'd get we'd still get yards yeah sometimes the alts kind of disappear a little bit but you you'll get something yeah
Starting point is 00:34:00 all right slap what else is on the menu for you all right and the other one the only other one i got is uh i don't even like this anymore but um i jahan dodson 11 plus receiving yards so just catch one ball one one it's plus 200. let's catch one ball he's out there running like he is out there he is out there and the Chiefs kind of have the same thing going on where their corners are not bad. Just one pass. Just one random-ass play at some point in the game. It's 11 yards, though, Connor. We're not asking this guy to do any –
Starting point is 00:34:34 like, he doesn't even have to catch more than one ball. Just give me one ball. Like I said, maybe Hurts has to scramble around for a second, looks up, doesn't realize it's Dodson that he's throwing to, accidentally throws it to him. He catches it 13 yards, and we never see him again. But at plus 200, I don't know. I'll take it.
Starting point is 00:34:52 Dude, I want as many of those types as possible, where it's not a single instance in that situation because you're not getting many more chances than one. Yeah, and you're not – well, you're also not dead the entire game. Like, he can catch an 11-yard pass technically, hypothetically, at any point. They get behind. What if they get behind?
Starting point is 00:35:09 Now, you know, shit goes out the window, kind of like the Mike Tyson with a plan thing. Like, you got to plan until you punch in the face. And now, next thing you know, Johan Dotson is being thrown to. That's not the crazy. He caught a touchdown in the playoffs already. It was 11 yards, like coincidentally enough. But yeah, he has been used, but just not at all in the last two games.
Starting point is 00:35:32 So you guys know that I love betting unders on these like shitty guys. Silver owners. You live for this. I love it. This is a Connor under. His regular line, I want to hear you say it. You're going to take under three and a half. This is an endorsement of your bet.
Starting point is 00:35:46 I'm not because he plays so much. Like I only take these guys. Like he's the biggest NPC I've ever seen in football. So I look, dug it up. 131 players with 20 plus targets. This John Dotson, 129th in yards per outrun 0.4 yards per hour of the 129 players with 200 routes a season johan dotson dead last in targets per hour 0.08 targets per hour run like and that's why we want them somehow i think he's what 40 routes last two weeks does he have one
Starting point is 00:36:20 target zero zero zero he's out there doing dirty work but what if he gets reward for what if they're like hey let's throw him one just give me 111 like i said we don't have to do a lot with john just one like what if he catches one of them for 15 yards like i'm gonna go nuts dude like like i know it like i know it they even in the revenge game where they talked him up against Washington, they're like, oh, we got to, like, you know, get him involved. They threw the first pass in for eight yards. He did not see a single target the rest of the game. I mean, Slop, I respect you going 200-plus.
Starting point is 00:36:56 I think that's probably the right way to do it and not let the minus 110. No. Because it's more like, yeah, he doesn't see a target. No. No. Yeah, exactly. That's what I'm saying. Somebody was like, all right, well, here, what about two receptions?
Starting point is 00:37:08 I was like, buddy, maybe I'm not explaining it right. It's two to one that this guy doesn't get 11 yards. Like, there's a real chance that this dude will not even catch a pass, much less. Like, you're talking about two. Like, he might not get targeted twice. Like, there's no chance they're going into this thinking, we got to get dotsotson the ball.
Starting point is 00:37:26 My thing is, Super Bowl shit happens. Things start going a little wild. Maybe the guy catches the pass. He's going to be around. That's all I'm saying. He's going to be out there. You're not being like, oh, I hope they put him in. It's like, no, he's out there running around.
Starting point is 00:37:38 He's just not doing much. But again, one time, and it's plus 200. I mean, hand up. I mean, there's recordings. We've been doing the show for seven years. Big John Dotson guy right here. I thought he was going to be really good. I thought I did too.
Starting point is 00:37:53 We've done lots of drafts together. I made Connor draft him on our teams. Like big John Dotson guy. I thought he was going to be really good. Hey, we're going to have some player takes that miss occasionally. I'm still not sure he's not good. Who knows? Some of these receivers are late developers. I'm pretty sure at this point he's not good.
Starting point is 00:38:12 Thank you, Brian. Look at the chat. Exactly. Dude, exactly. McCole Hardman caught one. What are we doing? You know what I mean? Just random dudes. Again, 11 yards. Please, Jah Just, again, 11 yards. Please, Jahan, please.
Starting point is 00:38:27 11 yards. Plus 200. Make me look like a genius. Slav, I got a plus 220 play. Okay. Okay. That's all I want to hear about for the rest of the day. Like, that's it.
Starting point is 00:38:39 That's where I'm at right now. I got a few. I got a couple. An official play just gave out to the Discord. This is one of my favorite ones. Sitting on it. Didn't move because no one's grinding this stuff. Milton Williams over a quarter sack.
Starting point is 00:38:54 Plus 221. Plus 221 on DraftKings. Plus 210 on FanDuel. So FanDuel will let you get down on Milton Williams just to get down on a sack. So you look into it. Williams has been awesome. He leads all defensive linemen in this game in PFF's pass rush win rate on the season. Not Chris Jones, not Jalen Carter, not George Kalatas.
Starting point is 00:39:17 It is Milton Williams. It's been awesome. Only Jones has a higher pass rush grade in the season, just by a little bit. And then Williams has by far the best individual matchup in this entire game. They're going to give Jalen Carter a lot of extra attention. He's being doubled like 52% of his pass rush snaps in the postseason. That's going to happen a ton. He's actually got a tough matchup. He'll be really good. He'll make some impactful plays, but he's got a tough matchup. He's going to see a lot of double teams. That's going to leave Milton Williams one-on-one 20, 25 times with Mike Caliendo at guard, which is a problem. He's taken over since they moved Joe Thune out to left tackle. Caliendo, 72nd out of 79 guards in PFF pass blocking grade this season. Mahomes, by far the most sacks taken in any season this year. His pressure to sack rate nearly doubled his career rate.
Starting point is 00:40:07 I don't think this is necessarily like a skill regression thing. The offensive line has been a problem, and Williams is good. They're up against a really strong defensive line. They're not going to get super creative. I think they're just going to line up with their dudes, and Williams can beat Caliendo a bunch of times. So I love this at plus 220. And, yeah, again, he gets in there together with Carter.
Starting point is 00:40:29 You're still good. They both get a half sack. This is still cashing on FanDuel and DraftKings because all you need to do is get a partial sack. Be careful at one plus. Sometimes it works out and it's okay, and we're sweating over nothing because he gets home and it's just his. But be careful with those if the prices are the same.
Starting point is 00:40:44 You definitely have a different risk. You know, you need to get a full sack basically. So over a half sacks, stuff like that. So Milton Williams, let's get it. We got a Nick comments who,
Starting point is 00:40:55 and all caps. And he said, I can't put my dollars on a guy named Milton. Sorry. Don't blame you. First time here. Hey, they watch the other side of the ball,
Starting point is 00:41:03 Nick. Okay. Defense matters. Honestly, man, I love a good who the hell is that guy. So, again, if you're watching with a group and a guy named Milton Williams, who most casuals have no idea who that guy is, he gets home and you start freaking out saying, yeah, I just hit that. Dude, you're a genius.
Starting point is 00:41:27 Like those people – Even better? Who is this guy? There are some books that have first sack of the game. Milton Williams is 12-1. So that first sack happens to Milton Williams at 12-1. Oh, man. Unites me.
Starting point is 00:41:40 I'm betting that. But that feels better. Where do you bet this? Anywhere? I don't know who else has it. I know they're out there, but off the top of my head, I don't know who has it. I know Chris Jones plus 850.
Starting point is 00:41:55 I gave out Chris Jones to get a sack earlier in the week with our guy at Fang plus money on Chris Jones. I love still... Does it have to be individual though or no? Is it... still like first player to record a sack. Does it have to be individual though? Or no, like, is it,
Starting point is 00:42:06 or his first player to record a sack? Like could be joint. Like, you know what I mean? What if it's like, Oh no, I would think that that's a good question. I don't know what the bylaws would tell you,
Starting point is 00:42:16 but I would think that, you know, getting involved is probably better than nothing. Well, I'll find it later. 16 to one first player to record a sack on Caesars. I'm in. Daniel, I'm with you.
Starting point is 00:42:31 They just popped one of these two guys on DraftKings only. Hopefully, FanDuel gets involved to some of these secondary pieces for the Chiefs getting a sack because the current price on DraftK kings for mcduffie is interesting but you know draft king sucks so we're hoping fanduel uh wants to participate in a sharp-ass question daniel yeah he gets it yeah he gets it that that's the kind of shit like i bet that dude does well subscriber he's in the chat you know exactly i bet he does well like that this is what happens right literally the kind of shit you need to be like that's that's that you get value add right it's
Starting point is 00:43:11 not just connor and i get smart guys like daniel in the chat giving out good advice good stuff and you know subscribers win because you get smart people putting uh their thoughts in there so brian what about uh like what what uh what's that say, 20? He's asking about Brandon Graham, unders. Yeah, he's questionable for the game. That's what they just announced. Okay, so – Is he even posted? I mean, you're probably laying –
Starting point is 00:43:35 We got anything posted for him. Yeah, you're probably laying a lot. Let me see. He had a full practice, though. He had a full practice. He's listed questionable. I mean, I think he's fine. I mean, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:43:46 He'll definitely play and probably play a normal amount, I would say. Yeah, which is not a lot anyway, which makes it tough for these guys. But that's why the Eagle stuff is nice because you're just going to have more looks. I mean, you're laying minus 800 under a half sack. That's not how I want to spend the day. No. No. Under a half sack.
Starting point is 00:44:12 I should start betting that shit just like under sacks. I don't think there could be a lot of sacks. That is so you, bro. I mean, that is so you. Sounds kind of awesome. You would love that. That would be like Christmas for you. To have a list this long of just like under half sacks.
Starting point is 00:44:33 Usually your best bet in that market, Connor, would be to fade good guys that are minus whatever. You start getting plus money on no sack. That's your bet versus sort of laying you know minus eight bills on someone they're not gonna have not gonna run into a sack you know you can uh i could luck into a sack you know maybe a home run but i could never uh what was the the elliot shore parks uh yeah what did you say like i could i what was the one that he said he could never he'd never play hockey he's like i could lock into a home run,
Starting point is 00:45:06 I could score two points in an NBA game, and I could score a touchdown, but I could never score a goal in hockey. It was just the most amazing goal I've ever seen. I think he was trying to give credit to the hand-eye coordination and talent of hockey players, while also saying, basically pretending that he could actually run into a fastball and take one out or not get decapitated on his way to the end zone
Starting point is 00:45:33 or get an actual, like, space to be able to get a shot up in the NBA, never mind to make it and score two points. It was kind of an egregious tweet, Hall of Fame tweet for sure. So, all right. what else we got? Oh, one more, and then let's cook some SGPs. This isn't the same. I think this is plus money. A couple different iterations of this half stuff.
Starting point is 00:45:57 Each team to score one touchdown or more, so one plus. Each team needs to score a touchdown in the first half. It can be more. Like I said, it doesn't have to be exactly one. It's plus 110 on FanDuel, plus 120 on DraftKings. Am I – They're going to score, right? Yeah, no, that's fun.
Starting point is 00:46:20 So you want to get a little bit more fun this time. Each team in the game One rushing touchdown One passing touchdown Plus 210 on Fandle So get the whole game for that one They all have You need at least four touchdowns
Starting point is 00:46:35 One's going to be rushing One's going to be passing from each side I don't hate those Plus money Don't hate it Patrick in patrick in the chat by the way 36 to 1 rushing touchdown each quarter hit last week these things do win i just gotta spray the board apparently but these are kind of more conservative but i also just think that they're i mean we have a total i think a lot of people lean under all but we're still up in the
Starting point is 00:47:00 upper 40s so i don't know. I don't hate it. So those are both good FanDuel ones. So let's get weird. Let's build some stuff. Let's do it. Do you want novelty prop real quick or do you want that at the end? Whatever. Whatever you got.
Starting point is 00:47:19 Give your novelty. Oh, cherry on top. Yeah. All right. We'll do it at the end. Yeah. We'll do it at the end. We. We'll do it at the end. We'll make the people wait for the Gatorade and the first song, last song.
Starting point is 00:47:28 And yeah, that was the main ones. I'm trying to get the anthem stuff too, but I'm not going to share that on here because I got to bet it first. So let's, yeah, let's cook up an SGP. Where do we want to start? All right. So we'll do a, should we do a, you want to do one big one or do like a pro Eagles one? For the sake of time, let's just do one big one. All right, so we'll do – should we do a – you want to do one big one or do like a pro Eagles one? For the sake of time, let's just do one big one.
Starting point is 00:47:48 All right, cool. So do we want to start with Goddard? I feel like that probably makes sense, right? He's the cornerstone of any winning SGP, I think. He is, yeah. If Dallas Goddard doesn't do anything, I'm probably going to be on the streets anyway so might as well get you know go big with it cash all right what do we want like 60 70 80
Starting point is 00:48:13 70 plus 90 30 30 plus longest is like plus four and change i I would love that, but they don't let you parlay it, so they don't include in the SGP option. I'd say 80 plus. I'm in. I think he can get there. He just had an 85. I don't know. I just feel like this is a different game.
Starting point is 00:48:42 It's a very different game. What it's a very different game what um let's see here what else do we got um noonan you mostly had tackle stuff right we had got her together and then tackles right tackles like a couple sacks and some of these random game stuff i'm basically committed to saquon um i'm gonna bet some saquon stuff right now you can get like 18 20 to 1 saquon mvp scotty scheffler to win waste management phoenix open world's best pre-game show out there scotty's like 450 5 to 1 um connor and i touched on this too i i think that there's there's really no path to i think the eagles winning and saquon not being awesome so i think that that saquon mvp is a really good proxy for chief or for eagles money line um i think you say make the same case for my homes
Starting point is 00:49:40 to be honest in the mvp side because just he's patrick mahomes but yeah, I just think that that's a smart way to get down on it. So that's what I have. I took a couple of shots on that yesterday, a couple of different prices of a lot of Scottie now. So hopefully – nice day today, bogey-free 66. So hopefully Scottie can cook up the weekend and then Saquon brings it home Sunday night. For sure.
Starting point is 00:50:01 I think we could go two different directions with this SGP there's like the are the Eagles playing from ahead and the Chiefs are like throwing the entire game or there's the opposite where it's like the Chiefs go ahead and probably are still throwing a little bit maybe not a ton
Starting point is 00:50:19 and then the Eagles actually have to throw which I think there's significantly more value on that but there's also a reason for that because it's less likely you know like yeah and they may not they may not throw like they may still just run the ball it's on but like again these are hertz 27 and a half attempts is priced like you know a slightly higher chance of having to throw more whereas like i mean again they've been trailing since the buy in three three and a half minutes total in 14 games of jalen hurts in the fourth quarter. So they just haven't had to throw at all.
Starting point is 00:50:48 So that's, I think, originally why we were going to go with two because there's two different scenarios. But we can just pick one because then I think you can play a bunch of stuff off of that, right? I think you can either way because on the Chiefs side, I think we all agree that either good Chiefs, bad Chiefs scenario works with the Chiefs passing a lot. Right?
Starting point is 00:51:09 There's not like a pro Chiefs run heavy parlay to be made. If they go run heavy, I'm going to lose a lot of props. A couple of receivers that I like, one from each side, that I think are maybe a little bit undervalued. I think some of the Devonta Smith stuff is pretty interesting. I can think Devonta Smith could both work well withallas goddard and kill goddard stuff um just like his ability to work over the middle in the slot um i think it's probably the best matchup against the chiefs i also think hollywood brown is is probably a little bit undervalued for where he is in the market so i don't i don't hate hollywood
Starting point is 00:51:40 brown stuff then we first came back like they were really excited about him all season like yeah we're maav games together. They were a buddy-buddy. First game against the Steelers, they gave them targets in the first half. I don't know. I don't hate Hollywood stuff. I don't think there's a huge gap between Hollywood and Worthy. My two cents.
Starting point is 00:51:59 That's how I build these SGPs myself, literally. The way I went with this one is just because it's so outrageous what the prices are for the Eagles having to throw. It's like you've got to have one or two of those hanging around your back pocket because if that happens, you're about to get paid. It is unlikely, of course, but it's being priced like that. But at the same time, that could happen.
Starting point is 00:52:25 We've all watched an NFL game before. You know what I mean? Like that could happen. Like it's not that crazy. Yeah. So what do you want to add? All I have is God or A-plus. We're just talking to Connor.
Starting point is 00:52:41 Yeah, that's the problem. It's like what, Noah Gray? You know what I mean? Like, do you do Kelsey? You got to go up for Kelsey and get him. No, let's not do Kelsey. I don't want to do that. What about Barkley receiving yards?
Starting point is 00:52:55 I'm sure. It's plus 250 at ESPN bet for 25. But, I mean, he could definitely have 25-plus receiving yards. I mean, what are the numbers you have? Are you doing that Caesars? Yeah, I'm just doing it Caesars. Caesars has 20-plus at even, 30-plus at plus 205. Kind of shitty SGP odds this year, to be honest.
Starting point is 00:53:17 Yeah, those five yards. Yeah, that's brutal. Let's come back to Juju. Yeah. Juju is, let's see here, for receiving yards, we got 30 plus is plus 170, 40 plus is plus 300, 50 plus is plus 480. I mean, 40 plus doesn't feel like we should take our talents to Caesar
Starting point is 00:53:46 I think that FanDuel has given us better odds on all this stuff so um all right so back to back to Goddard Goddard 80 plus and then we could do like I mean Juju you said I mean yeah Juju 40 plus on Caesar in on FanDuel is plus 490 on Caesars it's plus 300 so I mean, yeah, Juju 40 plus on Caesar and on Fandula is plus 490 on Caesars. It's plus 300. So, I mean, that's, I mean, 25 plus is only plus one 90 is plus one 92. That's not even that bad for 25 yards. But I don't know. I think that's fine.
Starting point is 00:54:19 Barkley 25 plus is plus 205. That's better. I think we can do that. Yeah. All right. We do that. We got it. They think we can do that. Yeah. All right. We can do that. We got it. They won't let you do longest, right?
Starting point is 00:54:29 Still won't let you do it. Well, longest reception maybe? Let's see here. Yes. Okay. We can do a longest reception. So a 15, 20, or 30-yard reception we can include in this. So this is going to get dangerous.
Starting point is 00:54:40 All right. What's a 20? For Barclays? I mean, it's locked right now. I don't understand. What are they doing here? They're watching, dude. 20 is locked.
Starting point is 00:54:50 15 and 30 are unlocked. I mean, FanDuel, come on, guys. They know. Fuck. We could do a 30-yarder for Goddard instead at plus 470. I don't mind that, dude. He's right there. Just break one more tackle, one of those little D-backs.
Starting point is 00:55:10 Dude, remember Corey Valentine in the wild card weekend? Put that man in a body bag with a stiff arm down the sideline. He's been looking good. So kind of interesting. This is really interesting. So you can do dallas gotter 30 plus yard reception and 80 plus yards and like it actually changes the odds so like if you take out 80 plus yards it's 40 to 1 if you add 80 plus yards we're already at 61 to 1 um with the four-legger so i mean i would say just leave it i mean i don't know that's a 20 like you know like
Starting point is 00:55:44 so now we got two dallasowder props, a Juju. Well, I could take out Juju and then Barkley. I had Juju 25, though, and Barkley 25. So I don't think it lets you add sacks. Let me see here. No defense. Oh, wait. Yeah, player to record a sack.
Starting point is 00:55:59 SGP option. Oh, yeah. Bill Williams. Oh, yeah. Bill Williams, Chris Jones. And Chris Jones. All right. Yeah. All right. option oh yeah williams oh yeah williams chris jones yeah all right we are at 10 to win three grand right now great start any uh touchdown multi-touchdown we What do you feel about tush pushes? Barkley, three touchdowns. I think two touchdowns is like 260.
Starting point is 00:56:30 Yeah, plus 260 for two touchdowns, plus 550 for Hurts. Both of those are two plus each. They hit three plus. That's not that crazy. They just did it. Last game they hit three. That's happened. Right?
Starting point is 00:56:44 Three each. And they would have got more if it would have been a closer game. Will Shipley's out there scoring touchdowns in the NFL. I thought he was selling cars. This is a pretty interesting market. Not in the SGP, but Saquon Barkley method of first touchdown. Rushing touchdown is minus 140. What's his actual prop?
Starting point is 00:57:04 Minus 190. So it's just like not a receiving touchdown yeah i mean it's basically one anytime i mean we can't add it to the sgp but i just bet that anyway it's just yeah yeah like i don't know i feel like it should be like minus 170 if any times minus 190 i mean he's like he's over under reception it's like one and a half or whatever too. So I don't know. It's like Saquon to lead the game in rushing yards is like minus 290 or something like that. Like, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:57:33 If you could find that on a credit book or something. Yeah. Or, you know, you find a book that will take a sizable bet. Like, I don't know. Again, we're not like bending over to lay minus 290
Starting point is 00:57:44 on the Super Bowl stuff. What scenarios is Saquon not – where is he getting outrushed other than getting an injury? Yeah, I don't know. Can't tell you. They have alts on every single quarter statistic as well on FanDuel which is pretty fun um so you could do like i don't know i mean maybe it's not for this samajay piran fourth quarter alt receiving yards uh it's like five pluses plus 260 um love it basically just to catch a pass in the fourth
Starting point is 00:58:20 quarter essentially well that works in the game you know the thing about the game script stuff right like trailing game scripts third downs yeah right my my fan duel count is just going absolutely bonkers right now it's just shifting everything um i mean yeah it's kind of fun then a jack with the odds a little bit uh let's see here fourth quarter five plus receiving yards is 10 plus 265 10 is four plus 450 we'll go with five um all right so we're at 10 to win 7600 do we have any any touchdown props any do we want saquon two touchdowns just for fun i think he scored twice i don't think that's accurate. So Dotson in there. Two touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:59:11 Dotson, two first touchdowns. He'll score twice. Got to pay well. A Dotson octopus. How much is that? That's so weird. It's not even letting me add that. That's so strange.
Starting point is 00:59:23 Yeah, they know, dude. That literally just says can't be combined. That's so strange yeah they know dude that's literally just can't be combined that's so strange i don't know why handle damn it um should we crack the code we're at 10 to win 7600 i feel like we need like one or two more and then we're good or just juice up the other ones that we already have in there um which would basically well that's basically just juju so i feel like we need we could take unders but i know slop would rather just you know call it quits than is there uh like mahomes attempts all or completions alts not on fan duel because i switched over there because we're getting screwed on the odds um what about fourth quarter mahomes rushing yards is that crazy kneel downs kill us oh actually you're right yeah yeah you don't want to be the
Starting point is 01:00:14 guy that loses the whole parlay you imagine that we finally craft one together perfect like it just it perfect everything hits and then all of a sudden it just hits you like oh shit he's about to kneel down and lose our two yards you know what i mean like that would be like the worst devastating yeah that would be literally like it would be tough to get out of bed the next day i'd be harder than it already is what do you think about Marquise Brown 30 plus yard reception I'm fine with that I like volume with him more
Starting point is 01:00:51 The Eagles just don't give up their plays Yeah that is true I don't know So you want a reception 50 plus yards Noah Gray four catches Oh my god It's Noah day bro 50-plus yards for the day. Noah Gray, four catches. Oh, my goodness. It's Noah day, bro.
Starting point is 01:01:10 I think we should just pick one of Juju or Noah. Yeah, no, we can go. I was like half joking there. That's pretty. All right, what did you say, Marquis, 50? It's only plus 148. I think it's capping us. Honestly,
Starting point is 01:01:25 it keeps saying like, can't be combined after I had another one. So are we just stuck? Like, are we, we're stuck on seven. All right. Well,
Starting point is 01:01:37 all right. So I guess here's where we're at right now. Request her. Oh no. Yeah. We'll tweet it out as well. But Sam, see your request for review.
Starting point is 01:01:43 We got Saquon 25 plus receiving receiving, Juju 25-plus receiving, Goddard to record a 30-plus yard reception and to have 80 yards, Milton Williams to record a sack, Chris Jones to record a sack, and Samaj P. Ron 5-plus fourth-quarter receiving yards. 76-1. I'm going to do $15 to win like 10, I don't know, 12K or whatever. Something like that, 10K. I mean, that feels pretty good.
Starting point is 01:02:09 Yeah, like. 100 get you 120k yeah i mean maybe we should just be putting 100 on here you know why not why not us whole unit yeah i mean if you know it's not us, then who? I don't know. All right. Well, I'll tweet it out, and we'll ride. It'll be good. That was a good one. Hi, buddy.
Starting point is 01:02:37 Hi, buddy. Look at that doggo. Yeah, she's getting hungry. We better hit the parlay. I know. We're going to need to hit this parlay. This dog needs to eat. Yeah. Real quick at the end.
Starting point is 01:02:52 I think pretty sure Gatorade will be yellow. Pretty sure first song will be, it's like some, something that's not even listed. So don't worry about it. It's something like a G and then last song is a TV off. So, uh,
Starting point is 01:03:08 there you go. When all your Superbowl pools, you can't even really bet any of this shit anywhere. So it doesn't really matter. Um, I believe me, I've tried bet us, let me get like $10 on it.
Starting point is 01:03:16 So, you know, whatever. Um, but you know, when your Superbowl pools at least, um, and yeah,
Starting point is 01:03:23 I'm not sure I would lay minus 200 by the way on the gatorade maybe um yeah it's minus 200 yellow very very sure on one side like 85 sure on the other side so i don't know what that makes the price but um probably fine it's minus 200 for a little bit but i'm definitely not i don't want my night to be ruined by the Gatorade coming down, not Hello for some reason. Yeah. So. Good stuff
Starting point is 01:03:54 as always. I hate that it's over. Crazy. Don't be sad that it's over. Be happy that it happened. People want to continue to take in all that is slop in the off season tell them what they can expect where to find it all those good things but yeah there is no off season with me we're gonna go right to nba we're already in that and then we'll hit the mlb
Starting point is 01:04:16 bunch of home runs all summer long at slop rules right here on youtube and on twitter just to make it easy for the people you go to go to Instagram. I'm there. TikTok, all that shit, dude. It's crazy. Big, big, big footprint on the gram, if you can find Slop over there. Carter and I will take a little bit of time off, but not much, because Illinois, we thought, was going to be without draft betting props this season, but it looks like that has been reversed. Draft tabs back in the apps.
Starting point is 01:04:47 We are ready to cook. We'll get into the offseason stuff here very shortly and grind the draft as always. So, again, subscribe to this on the YouTube channel, 444BETS. Move the line wherever you listen to podcasts, and we will be back very, very soon. Good luck, everyone. Again, much, much appreciated all the time you spent with us this season.
Starting point is 01:05:08 The show does not happen. It's not nearly as fun without you guys all in the chat. So thank you so much. We're looking to continue this in the future. Obviously, a couple years doing this with Slot Now. I want to make sure that that's a trend that doesn't stop. So for Slot and Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next year. Thanks, everybody.

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