Move The Line - First Look - 2022 Super Bowl and Divisional Odds

Episode Date: February 23, 2022

Move The Line hosts Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen take an early look at 2022's Super Bowl and Divisional Odds. Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Use Promo Code 4FOR4 on Prop Swap for a first-time deposit match up to $500 + a FREE Move the Line shirt 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3r2JF04 Prophet Exchange is a sports betting exchange where users set prices. Join the waitlist to secure a $200 deposit match 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/35Ln416  Deposit $20 in a new SuperDraft account & receive a $100 Fanatics Gift Card 👉🏼https://4for4.co/3uHHBOr  Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4football  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFL  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan   Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/  Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football  4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw  4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hJTtqX

Hello and welcome to Move the Line presented by PropSwap. Head over to PropSwap.com or download the app today. Enter our promo code 444. When you make your first deposit, find folks over at PropSwap. We'll match it up to $500. I am Ryan Noonan, joined for an off-season, first of many, by my friend Connor Allen. Connor, what's going on, bud? Not much. I am back in the great state of Illinois.

I mean, it's a good 10 to 15 degrees colder here than Indiana, which is strange. I guess like central Indiana. But yeah, it's good to be back, you know, good to be back home and yeah, I'm ready to start the off season off strong. Well, Mr. for the Superbowl, what, tell me what you did. Did you, you know, we haven't talked about this and I don't know what you did, how you watch the game. I know you, you know, you're on a basically a work excursion for a number of months and you know away from your friends away

from your fiance uh somewhat alone so did you take in the game with any people local watering hole what did you do yeah i went to a bar and and got like a nice like booth and there's a bunch of tvs it's like they got a bunch of good food some good like drink specials stuff like that so i just kind of snacked and hung out all game. What I usually do for Super Bowl bets, because I have so much stuff out across so many different books at different odds, that I usually... I do this for the NFL

draft. I make a spreadsheet on my phone and just check them off as I'm going through and calculate my constant where I'm at. But by far and away, I use one of my risk-free bets on cam makers under 63 rushing yards which is i max that out and then so i had you know like 30 of my action on that because i put it in other things too before that so uh as soon as that hit it didn't

really matter you know i we could tell pretty quickly i think he had like at one point it was like what 13 yards on 11 carries i tweeted it out he's i mean he had like at one point it was like, what, 13 yards on 11 carries. I tweeted it out. I mean, he's just absolute dust. It was a good day, though. It was not bad. I mean, all things considered, I would much rather have been at your place. Well, we missed you.

We were cheering for some of the stuff that I know that we had collectively. I know that there was – we were cheering for Samajit Pirine receptions because I know that that was a points bet place. We were hoping that we'd get some of that late garbage late to not happen. But it sounds like it's still max bet on the acre stuff that I'm sure more than made up for the day. So, yeah, I had too many people here in the basement, but it was a great time. And we missed you. Hopefully, we'll have you next year and we can do it all again.

Maybe next year. Maybe we're in Arizona next year. Next year is Arizona. Maybe we can twist the arms of the higher-ups here to get us out there for a little bit and move the line on location. It's also really close to Scottsdale for the Phoenix Waste Management, Phoenix Open. It's maybe a little bit of work Monday through Friday.

We take in waste management on saturday we fly home saturday night sunday morning get back in town uh and take the super bowl in that way hopefully we'll see we'll see but that'd be a blast 100 be a good week um on the golf side we are excited do you want to let you know about a promo that we are running that's uh i'm trying not to talk about it every day, Connor. And I don't know how to like, I don't know how to get around not talking about it every day because it is going to last for a number of weeks is going to run through the masters, which is, uh, April 7th to 10th, uh, because we are launching bets, birdsGolf.com, which is a pet project is not the proper way to describe it.

But I know me and a lot of people have been working on this a lot since about October, November, and really excited about it. We're going to expand on the golf offering that we have at 444, getting into premium content on the betting side, on the DFS side. Lots of tools. We're going to have customized projections. We're going to have optimizers on the DFS side. We're going to have pre-tournaments, live betting odds, all these things. The tools are going to be a slow rollout because building really good golf tools takes a lot longer than six months, but the premium content

is going to be that right away. And we have an incredible offer where if you get a betting subscription at four for four, anytime between now and the masters, the way that, that last hole on 18 Sunday afternoon on April 10th, a betting subscription to four for four is also going to get you a free subscription at bets, birds,

golf.com for our first year through the tour championship. So basically the majority or all of the golf season this season. So definitely check that out. We'll have some information there in our show notes. We'll have more info as it comes. Again, if you follow me on Twitter, I will try not to bury your timeline with that promotion, but we're really excited about it.

We're bumping also, we're bumping the sub at four for four. The betting subscription is way too cheap and we continue to offer expanded sports, expanded tools. Connor's working his tail off right now grinding college basketball props for you. We just launched a new college hoops tool that mirrors the prop tools that we have for the NFL and NBA. Lots of great college hoops content coming soon. Shows with Connor and Mike Randall and company, conference tournament

previews. Obviously, we're going to get really deep in the tournament itself in a couple of weeks. So again, that price is going up as well. So not only are you locking in kind of an early bird price for the betting sub that's going to take a jump after the masters as well you're also getting a free site so like i cannot express how great of a deal it is you're really saving like 300 or something like that if you're any fan of golf content at all um take advantage get the sub at four for four the betting subscription that gets you everything at the site you're gonna get the free one as well so uh keep an eye out for all the connor stuff you're what like five and one six and one so far on seven and one including last night because i tailed randall officially as well and he took uh uh the guy from

northwestern nance over 12 points and he racked up like 20 like he like i nearly hit in the first half um and i've been taking mostly unders took Took another one today that I tweeted out, so hopefully keep riding this. I mean, this market, I think it's just really soft. Yeah. Everyone likes to bet sides and totals and want to do your brackets and do these things. We're going to continue to do where we think is best

and where the market is softest, where we can exploit that, and that is continuously in the player prop market. So with that said, we're going to talk about some futures. The fine folks over at DraftKings have released Super Bowl futures. They've also released divisional odds as well. And we kind of want to get a leg up on it. We don't have any massive takes, Connor.

And I know it's kind of a new market for us, but I just kind of want to get some conversation rolling. We are going to do a ton of shows here in the next couple of months. We're basically chomping at the bit until we get draft props that we can really dig into. But talk to me about futures. How do you approach it? Again, we're tying up money for a very long time. We have a lot of news to come at this point. We're a few days out from free agency breaking. We're obviously a couple of months out from the draft. A lot of things can shift and change. But before we jump into the board itself, talk to me about how you really just kind

of approach the market in general. Yeah, so I think a few things here. So if you're going to bet on a legal domestic sports book, your edge needs to be, I would say, far bigger than on a weekly basis, just because of the amount of time that you're tying up money, as you mentioned. So, you know, in a normal prop that you're betting, say, in the regular season, you know, I look for, you know, a standard edge of our projection years. It generally ends up being like 15 to 20 percent, something like that. You know, like for an offseason prop, I generally try and shoot for like,

you know, 30 plus percent, 35 percent almost in terms of just like value and kind of what I'm looking for, because there are a lot of outs. There are a lot of different ways that you can lose and kind of factoring that in as well with the player prop market, like the future market that way. But just in general for futures otherwise, like, you know, betting Super Bowl futures, like if quarterbacks can get injured, you know, throughout the offseason, teams can make trades, draft picks. So I think that you really have to have a good read on a team that's stable, not going to make too many big waves if you really want to bet a future here. But otherwise, I kind of like to hold off, honestly, generally at this point. I don't like to bet too much unless it's like a truly egregious number, which I do think there's actually one or two things that stood out to me in the divisional market that were pretty different. But last note, last note, though, I do think if you have any access to non-domestic books, such as like, you know, local bookies or domestics, those operate on credit. So if

you have a choice between operating on credit or tying up money, always choose credit. I mean, obviously don't get yourself too deep in the hole. Be responsible. Be responsible. Call it under gambling if you have any issues, whatever the whole ad read on that is. But if you had the option to put $100 on the Dolphins to win the Super Bowl on credit on the sports book, I'm telling you now that it's better to put it on credit, even though the final bill at the end of the day didn't look great. You're usually able to make it up with other stuff.

That's good advice. It is true. Yeah. Be responsible with the credit, but it is a good point. That is, especially in February, something that should impact, to your point, like having a massive edge to be able to tie up the funds. You can find numerous markets. This is not a financial advice program, but you can find

numerous markets that are better for you to tie up a couple hundred dollars on a future over basically what you would be able to yield over 11 months, 11 and a half months versus letting it sit out there in the future. But definitely a good place to understand where the market has been set to start, to understand really where the market is going to go based off of some of the things that can happen between now and a time where we feel a little bit more secure in getting down on some of these futures. So let's talk about the Super Bowl odds to start here. No surprise, we see some familiar names at the top of the bills and chiefs again

depending on where you're looking there are some massive discrepancies here like the chiefs are anywhere between plus 650 on points bets uh all the way up to plus 800 on like bet rivers for instance or win bets a bar stool so even here there are some options to be able to shop and be smart the bills up there too plus 700 on fan duel plus 750 on draft kings points bet they kind of sit at the top and then uh we get down the rams defending super bowl champions 49ers are pretty pricey there as well at 14 to 1 packers there too so there's a lot of stuff around the packers and broncos connor that i think is worth talking about, especially as we get into the division stuff too.

Those divisions are both off the board. You cannot bet into the NFC North right now. You cannot bet into the AFC West because of the Aaron Rodgers news, because obviously there's a lot of speculation that Denver is probably the front runner for whatever reason, right? Based off of the draft rumors of last season. And then obviously obviously you know the packers can become an immense value or their prospects change drastically because they also have the top free agent on the board davante adams which feels kind of like a package deal in a sense doesn't mean that necessarily adams goes to where rogers goes

but there's definitely a chance for that he's definitely not going back to green bay without him so again the afc the two teams are the top of the board but the rest of the afc is loaded um i'm surprised we don't have a team that's a little shorter from the nfc side but again it feels wide open the rams makes sense to be the next team but uh talk to me a little bit about the top of the board and if anything jumped out at you i think good advice here at least for me is i never bet the chalk like early on uh i mean if you want to take a shot at chalk like right before the season that's fine but uh i mean like kind of like we said before there's just so much that can happen in an off season like yeah if one of these guys gets injured i mean you know like there's you're just like wasting money uh and i would rather much

rather waste money in that same aspect on a 30 to 40 to one then you know seven or eight to one uh so i mean that's kind of been my sweet spot almost has been like looking at teams that are 20 to one or more to win because i just think that the juice is a little bit more worth the squeeze at that at that kind of like rate and that's more of a personal preference than true like math but i think that's that's just generally how i've approached it um in terms of like odds that stand out to me i mean nothing comes like right off the top that's like in that in that range um i think the eagles are like 40 to 1 are okay you mentioned the broncos uh i mean a pretty big discrepancy they're looking at like anywhere from 28 to 1, you're looking at some books like Unibet, Sugarhouse, all the way down to 18-1, I bet MGM.

15-1, actually, at the score and win bet. It's crazy. It's all about the speculation, I think, with Rodgers. I mean, I think they make a play. I mean, I'm not going to lie. I think that the Broncos make a play for a big-name quarterback, but that's also been my theory for the last few years, that they were kind of a quarterback away from being a relevant team.

I mean, most teams are, I guess. But at the same time, I mean, Elway's already courted Peyton Manning, and I think that there's maybe not a similar core, but there's still some good enough pieces in place that, like, could he convince another quarterback to come and be like the next big thing there. I think that he can, but I'm, again,

I'm also a little bit biased. I think you can too. And I get the situation again, the Rogers thing is interesting. And I, I don't know that Rogers is the type of guy based off of what we've maybe seen in the last year or so that doesn't think of himself highly enough, but to like leave the NFC and to leave leave that division, it's so curious to me.

It would have to be personal because it's definitely just not the best football decision to leave a wide-open division that you were instantly the favorite to come back to, to go to a place where you have to face Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes twice a year. The Raiders made the playoffs um it's peculiar knowing again that you know josh allen is there the nfs or the afc north again joe burrow and company just went there at the preseason we thought that that was a three team race but everyone except the bangles right so like who knows what the sealers do with the quarterback position the ravens had massive issues i think when we start to get like some of the final numbers of like

actual games missed from key contributors like i think the ravens ended up blowing everyone away last year as far as like the guys that really mean something to their team missing games that team was what eight and three nine and three at one point the number one team the afc and then they ended up missing the playoff so uh they're a little bit interesting to me as far as where they're at. They are 25 to one on win bets, 20, most everywhere else. The Chargers are another team that's kind of in that bucket where you classified, you know, everyone was dying to bets. The Chargers, even though they couldn't sneak into the playoffs last year,

still right around 25 to one, but there's some massive numbers. The difference is there too, right? They're 25 on MGM. in the playoffs last year, still right around 25-1. But there's some massive numbers. The difference is there too, right? They're 25 on MGM. They're 15 at the score, for instance. So there's some discrepancy out there as well. Is there anyone that you think that can make a big move in free agency? Because there's a lot of quarterbacks that are being rumored to move teams, right? There's a lot of russell wilson rumors there's obviously aaron

rogers like we talked about uh seems like jimmy garoppolo probably not a needle mover but maybe on the right team is a massive upgrade instantly right maybe you put them on washington they stay healthy and they have a quarterback that could stay upright and all of a sudden maybe they're viable in a pretty open division is there anything that um with the right move i mean obviously you mentioned the eagles too the draft capital that they have is quite interesting uh what are your thoughts on the quarterbacks do we see some moves with the likes of russ um and i guess what are your thoughts on rogers in general do you think he's coming back yeah i think he probably is coming back i mean rogers seems like it's like kind of like a brett farve-esque diva in terms of retirement, unretirement. I mean, what did he just yesterday just made like a, he made an announcement to make

an announcement that he was not making an announcement. Like, I mean, that's literally like basically what he did on Pat McAfee's show and saying that he went through some weird, I don't know, whatever, what was it called? What was that thing called? Aggressive detox. Pama Chunrara pama something like that i don't know it was something ridiculous but um i mean he apparently felt great after so you know you can go with that narrative the the detox narrative uh i don't know if you're familiar with bulletproof coffee have you have you heard of this yeah i've heard of that okay yeah so

bulletproof coffee is like people think you just put a slab of butter in your coffee and you're on your way but it's not actually butter. What actually they suggest is that it's actually this ghee that he apparently digested immense amounts of to blow out on both ends, according to Rogers. But which makes sense. Ghee basically looks like slightly drawn butter butter but apparently is really good for brain function apparently good for blowing out your ass as well if that's something that you decide you want to do for a weekend but uh yeah he's definitely an interesting an interesting i do think okay so i was looking at this i think that the sneaky team for him to go if he does leave

the steelers i mean i feel like he kind of like i don't know has that same kind of degas mentality as roethlisberger and would like just like fit in there like pretty seamlessly i don't know, has that same kind of de-gaff mentality as Roethlisberger and would just fit in there pretty seamlessly. I don't know. It just seems like, you know. But he could actually get it done. He's not dusty like Roethlisberger. If he wants to throw the ball 50 times a game, he'll just do it, but he'll win. Because the Steelers have a pretty good team, I mean, for the most part,

when they're healthy. I mean, they obviously suffered a lot of injuries last year. Their defense ended up suffering dramatically. But I don't know. I think that would be an interesting fit. I'm not sure he'd go there, but I don't know. It'd be fun. Yeah, it would be.

I'm just trying to think of, like, where else is a market for him? I mean, obviously, there's some questions. The Bucs are, you know, interesting. The Panthers. I haven't heard a lot of talk about that. There's some speculation around Deshaun watson going there you know our buddy uh dalton gates or dalton kates who does a lot of our um you know specials just printed money for us this season uh dalton's been on the watson to carolina train a little bit um i tailed that for uh a of nickels. I got 42 cents. Yeah, I was able to get down 442.

Oh, congrats. That's a big deal. That is a big deal. What about the – I think it's really interesting that the Niners are plus 800, which, I mean – So Eric Eager from PFF pointed this out, and I thought it was really interesting. So both the Niners and Bengals are currently shorter than they were at the start of the playoffs this season. And that's obviously interesting because you're already in the playoffs, right? You've already made it to the playoffs.

The Bengals in particular, I think, were 20 to 1 to win the title even when the playoffs started. Now they're going to have to basically run it back title even when the playoffs started now they're gonna have to basically run it back get all the way there again and they're basically their odds are cut in half i know that they were a long shot i know that we have a lot more information now but they also now have to like do it again um and do it from the spot of we are the defending afc champs very different and then the niners like we didn't have any talk about Trey Lance all season. Really, for the most part. Early in the

season, it was Trey, Trey, people don't like Jimmy. But as soon as Trey got a taste and then Jimmy came back, no one was talking about bringing Trey in at all. Because Trey was trash, that's why. He was really bad. it's almost like someone

playing in north dakota states two years ago uh maybe needs a little bit more time to to get there so like yeah i'm with you it seems weird that they're that short but again like the structure is there the rest of the roster is strong and the nfc is wide open in comparison to the afc yeah um i think i'm to probably say this now, and I'm pretty confident that I'm going to be fading the Bengals pretty hard next year from a win total perspective, from a divisional perspective. I,

I think that they're probably overrated. I mean, their run was really, really fluky. Joe Burrow. I mean, now suffering like what is third injury since entering the league. I'm worried about him.

I think that he might end up like Andrew Luck. I mean, he's a little bit different mentally than Andrew Luck and obviously charismatically. But, you know, from an injury perspective, I think that this is going to add up. I mean, like, there's no way he can keep going and continue to, you know, operate where he has been. So, I mean, I love Jamar Chase. I think the weapons are fun, but the defense was fluky. They were outgained in yards per play in, I think, every single game, except for the Super Bowl. Maybe, actually, probably the Super Bowl, too. So, yeah, I just think that this is, I think it's a fluke, just to be honest. So I think that – and Lamar Jackson was injured this season.

The Steelers were hardly a contender with Big Ben there. Yeah, I don't know. I just think it could be very well that they win like eight games next year. I'm with you. So let's move on then with that discussion. Take it to the AFC North. We'll watch the Super Bowl market as it develops. Definitely Price Shop highly recommends. You know, the Super Bowl market as it develops. Definitely price shop. Highly

recommend. Connor and I are looking through this. There just is a lot of variety, even way down the board when you're looking at stabbing at some long shots from book to book. So obviously take advantage of the options that you have and price shop wherever you can. You should be doing that really for any bets. A lot of times we do that for you because we are also doing that for us so when we're giving a pick we're doing that but uh it's just really important to not lock into a book or two when you can have just massive massive discrepancy and and uh in a long shot so um yeah i mean the afc north right so like i said we thought it was a three-team race with the Ravens, the Steelers, and the Browns, who had a lot of buzz coming into the preseason, done a lot on the defensive side,

and free agency to add to it in the draft as well. And then really the Bengals emerged there. As we look at that market right now, the Bengals have opened up on DraftKings as the favorite at plus 150. Ravens shortly behind them. This has moved a little bit. They are now down to two to one. The Browns a little bit behind that at three to one. And the Steelers are a long shot at seven to one.

So, I mean, I think that the Ravens are a bounce back, but the Steelers at seven to one, considering what that roster is, if they were to add one of these quarterbacks that we're talking about and they don't roll back with mason rudolph or something like that then obviously that's you know doa but like hey we took jaguars at uh like plus 850 last year so like i made dumber bets than uh steelers at 701 uh which again they could retool here quickly with an addition of the offensive line and the quarterback yeah i think that's a that's a pretty good volatile bet you know like pretty high upside i mean obviously

the floor is low but i think that's probably how you want to attack it you don't really want to attack it like from like a win total perspective until you have more clarity um on the situation so yeah i like that another one that i think is interesting that again i'm going to start off connor with two teams that we dog all the time first one was the steelers i don't like the steelers um shout out to me right shout out to me. I don't like the Steelers. Shout out to me, right? Shout out to me. I just don't like the Steelers. How about this? What happens if Rodgers goes? The Bears are

plus 650. There's speculation around what happens with Cousins in Minnesota. Again, he seems like no sure thing to come back. He probably does. This is this time of year where there's a lot of speculation and most of it ends up being for naught. But again, he seems like no sure thing to come back. He probably does. This is this time of year where there's a lot of speculation and, you know, most of it ends up being for not.

But, uh, again, if there is an Ascension in the second year for Justin Fields, there are some things on that roster that are encouraging. They also dealt with a number of injuries. I feel like they're something that's interesting, probably more so than even a, you know, what 18 to 1 lions um but again i feel like i'd rather take a shot at chicago and nearly seven than uh minnesota at three i'm just like i get that there's like the oh and nagy's not there now but it's like i mean do we really care about ryan aberflus or matt aberflus and you know ryan poles and like you know any of these

guys they hired it's like a bunch of like nobodies. No, it's really, that would be a bet on Justin Fields taking a step, right? Yeah. I mean, yeah, I just like, yeah, I guess at six, seven to one or whatever, like with Rogers gone, I think it's definitely worth a stab. Vikings are the only other one in play. So yeah, I think that that's probably worth a look at, you know, the Bears The Bears, though, I don't have much confidence in who they hired. I mean, it's very, very uninspiring. Same.

No, I'm with you. Anything jump out at you? I mean, New Orleans is – Yeah, so actually something for me in that division. Okay. Why are the Bucs favorite? Yeah, that's what I was going to ask. I mean, like minus 105, obviously it's a good roster, but like Brady's's gone chris gobbins are free agents there are lots of questions on the defensive side

yeah uh i mean tom brady is a big deal like i mean there are not i mean unless they get aaron rogers or um russell wilson i mean i will be heavily betting the saints i think that i don't care if tasem hill is the quarterback or whatever. Like, it's – I mean, he has shown that when healthy, he is capable of helping them be an above-average team. I mean, they obviously have to change some things around, you know. It's just – but, like, I think that they're more than capable of that. So, I mean, anything above, like, plus 250 or another plus 300 to win the division,

I think they're a step above the Panthers who continue to be just, you know, a rotating door of quarterbacks of just disasters. And, I mean, they fired their offensive coordinator, Joe Brady, who we thought was like, you know, the next big thing. And it turns out him and Matt Rule, who I think is kind of a donkey, something we actually talked about on this podcast, is like, what has he really done? You know, like he turned around to shitty programs in college,

but then all of a sudden it was like touted as being like, you know, you know, the next God's gift coach. Like, he's just like, awesome. And I don't really think that he's got to prove that he's not.

He didn't even make them really good. He just made them less shitty. Yeah. And I mean, their quarterback sucks, but like they have some good pieces. It's him and the Falcons are a disaster. So I'm not going to bet them. So I think the Saints for me, like I think that that should be like it'll close closer to like even money or those two being the same odds,

like probably plus 150 then like right now. That's my prediction. I think that the Saints are actually a good speculative look at plus 300. Yeah, no, I do, too. I think that's Saints are actually a good speculative look at plus 300. Yeah, no, I do too. I think that's pretty interesting. I mean, we were on Carolina a little bit last year despite that, and they do like a lot of the parts there. So it'll be interesting to see kind of what happens there at the quarterback position because I think there are encouraging talents.

But, I mean, again, coach and quarterback are things that we're not very confident on, and those are the two most important, you know, I guess, inflection points on making a decision. Here's who's taking the snaps, the quarterback, and who's in charge of the roster. They're going to run 30 times a game.

That was why Joe Brady got fired. Right. So crazy. How about down the board a little bit? I mean, look, we're going to do this again. I think this year,

because I don't know where you think about the titans they did not inspire a lot of confidence again we thought probably they were the worst number one seed that we can remember and they did not disappoint and laid an egg uh at home and um and culture just not a team that i don't know again similar situation carson wentz earned his way there. Seems for all intents and purposes that he's going to be the single caller on day one. I know that he wasn't, people will tell you he wasn't terrible for parts of the season, and he wasn't. He very much was a game manager.

They ran on the back of Jonathan Taylor, had some success on the defensive side. May have some free agent questions there as well. But again, there are also some things on the Jacksonville side that are encouraging right now. It's 12-1, Conor. 12-1. We got to run it back. I mean, I was like looking at this thinking the exact same thing.

You get Trevor Lawrence. Right, some of the Texans. Okay, yeah. But Davis Mills, though, low-key, I mean. He was decent. Yeah, he actually played way, way better down the stretch. Once he stopped playing, like, freaking death row of defenses, he literally played, like, I think every single top 10 secondary in the league

for, like, out of his, like, first eight weeks and then played some lighter defenses and actually played really well. Yeah. And with no weapons. I mean, literally, like, branding cooks and, you know, just a bunch of nobodies. So their franchise quarterback, I mean. Well, I mean, that's obviously another,

that's a massive market mover is what happens with Deshaun Watson, right? I mean, seems he's not coming back to Houston. Seems very unlikely at this point, but but like does he come back at all where does he land he changes a franchise instantly assuming that he you got 16 games of him or 12 games of him or whatever ends up happening with with that it's obviously not our place to speculate but it's definitely interesting this offseason for sure yeah and adding on to the panthers uh watson connection i had a guy last year tell me like oh like the panthers are gonna sign him this is before the

thing or they're gonna trade for him like they're putting together the best offer so i obviously went really heavy on that and then of course the freaking you know news broke about everything that happened and that got derailed but i mean they were like a heavy heavy player this is before they traded for sam donald too so before that happened it seemed got derailed. But I mean, they were like a heavy, heavy player. This is before they traded for Sam Donald too. So it was before that happened. It seemed like Sam Donald was kind of like their backup plan if Watson didn't pan out. And unfortunately he did not. So I do think that that would be my guess actually right now is where Watson goes as

long as his eligibility remains. And I guess there's more clarity on it and he does play. Yeah. I have to see what happens with that one. I think there is, if we do get the markets back for the NFC North and the AFC West, there is a little bit of a middle opportunity. If you do think that the Broncos are the team where you can get on the Broncos at probably four to one, maybe 3,500 or, you know, plus three 50, I mean, to win the division. And then same thing, you probably lay minus 200,

two and change on the Packers. Again, they obviously have to go through the chargers. They have to go through the chiefs, but again, just trying to find any way where we can find some opportunities to, to profit off of the unknown here is kind of what I'm trying to find ways to do. Again, this goes back to the Super Bowl conversation. You are still tying up funds for a long period of time. I'm just interested when those markets emerge because do they just keep them down until we get an announcement so they don't get buried?

Does someone else come up next to DraftKings and post those odds? It's definitely a market that I want to continue to watch. But just kind of scanning through, is there anything that jumps out at you? Anything in the AFC East you want to back the Dolphins at 6-1? No, I think that my Dolphins run might be over. Dude, do you know that Jalen Waddell is going early second round in fantasy drafts? Like ahead of Tyreekreek hill like everyone what yeah i mean look i am jalen waddle's number one fan and that is rich that is too rich for me i

mean yeah i i'm like i he should be like a early third round pick like he was like a like i was while looking at some draft boards i was like wow anyways on that note dolphins on that note, Dolphins, I mean, the division is tough. I just don't – I don't really see it all coming together. It didn't come together last year. I thought that, you know, I mean maybe. I don't know. I guess like, you know, I'm just not sure that Tua quite has all the juice that I thought he could.

And, you know, he just – I'm not really quite sure. He has the upside that I thought. Yeah. Bill's massive massive massive favorites there minus 225 yeah don't lay minus 225 in the bills no that's a really dumb bet i think yeah it's the biggest number on the board uh again because the packers are off the board so yeah that's that's rich they are the favorites for a reason they should be but uh yeah that's does not make any any sense at all don't tie up a bet on minus 225 where you know the patriots are i think are

an ascending team in a lot of ways and um the dolphins are not like they're not terrible i mean they're at least going to be contending and give the bills a game here and there so yeah i would i would not lay the minus 225. How about some of the free agent stuff that's out there? I mean, Patriots have a decision to make on JC Jackson. One of the best defensive free agents here. I imagine they probably franchise him and then figure out what to do with him moving forward to see if they can come to a mutual agreement. But there are some big names, big names that, you know, multiple positions,

lots of receivers, lots of pass catchers out there. Odell's a guy that is unfortunately going to cost himself a little bit of money, obviously getting injured in the Super Bowl, but I'm interested to see if the Rams are in the back with him. Basically shocked to see what happened last year with Allen Robinson, see if that was maybe indicative of the situation and not the player falling off, but it was pretty bad. And like Mike Williams mentioned earlier with Devontae Adams, is there any perfect match out there?

Calvin Ridley, again, not a free agent, but Calvin Ridley is a question that we had in our Discord today. A lot of speculation on him being traded. Patriots actually rumored quite often there, which I like quite a bit. They obviously need a game changing receiver. Are there any matches from free agency or trade standpoints that you think might make sense or anything we need to look out for? I mean,

now that I'm thinking about Calvin Ridley with the Patriots would actually be awesome. I mean, he's a great, great separator, great route runner. I mean, that is exactly what Mac Jones needs. Someone who's like pinpoint accurate, you know, not necessarily like a, you know, throw the ball up and pray kind of guy. You know, he's very much just like, you know, throws guys open, but it's able to see it and throw it as well. So I think that would be a perfect match in my opinion.

Outside of that, I actually kind of think a lot of these guys go back to their teams. Like I think Mike Williams probably goes back. I think that, I actually kind of think a lot of these guys go back to their teams. Like I think Mike Williams probably goes back. I think that – I mean, my guess right now with Green Bay is that they run it back with Adams and Rodgers. I think Allen Robinson, a lot of the film guys that I trust, were basically saying that he just like isn't separating anymore. He's kind of like falling off in a lot of areas. Maybe he was injured, but he's not going to be a guy that I'm really going to be betting to bounce back for a few –

for kind of that reason. It's like he didn't look good. It's not like he was like constantly open. And I think that's like the big difference is like if he was constantly open and Justin Fields was just, you know, throwing the yips and like throwing the ball over his head, that'd be one thing. But the reality is he wasn't even like open. So I think that's kind of something I'm fading there.

Other than that, I don't know. Yeah, it's going to depend on – the free agency is going to be wild, I think. But we'll see. Yeah, there are numerous pass catchers we didn't even talk about. Again, another injured guy, Chris Godwin. What's his status? He got injured late in the season. Is he going to be ready to play and contribute next year?

I mean, Odell literally could miss the entire season. He blew on a knee ligament in the Super Bowl, you know? So, like, yeah. I mean, you knew right away, right? Like, you saw that and knocked it up. That's it. He's done. Yeah.

Yeah. Maggie's like, what do you mean? I'm like, you can just see it's like a non-contact. She's like, but it didn't look that bad. I'm like, no, it's just the way, like, it's the way that, you know, he, like, held can just see it's like a non-contact. Like she said, but it didn't look that bad. I'm like, no, it's just the way,

like, it's just the way that, you know, he, he like held it and like his knee buckled. I'm like, it's over. Like he stopped.

Yeah. Be interesting to see what happens there. All right, my friends, this is the first of many off season move line podcast. We will continue to try to stay up to date as the markets emerge, as news develops. We'll probably do some stuff around free agency. If there's some stuff that's coming out and changing these markets, Connor and I are dying to get our hands on some more markets in the draft process,

try to get ahead of some numbers before the information starts to hit. Combine coming up next week. That's a big day, obviously, or a big week. It starts to move some of the information starts to hit a combine coming up next week, that's a big day, obviously, or big week, you know, starts to move some of the information, you know, everyone kind of plugged together in one spot for a couple of days, just lots of rumors start to brew from those conversations. And hopefully we have some of that information for you here again, four for four.com slash plans. Take advantage of our betting subscription.

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Yeah! I'm Ryan. See you everyone soon.