Move The Line - FREE NFL Conference Championship Picks | Expert Bets & Predictions

Episode Date: January 27, 2023

NFL Conference Championship Preview! Connor Allen, Sharp Clarke & John Daigle get you ready for the Conference Championship of the NFL Playoffs. They share their top NFL bets, fantasy tips, and fantasy advice.Timestamps:0:00 Intro1:55 Eagles-49ers Preview21:16 Bengals-Chiefs Preview43:32 Final Conference Championship Takeaways45:57 OutroSHOW NOTES (for both feeds)Want a FREE 4for4 Betting Subscription? Deposit $10 into a new BetMGM account using promo code 4FOR4 👉🏼  https://4for4.com/go/BetMGMGet a FREE 4for4 Pro or DFS Sub & Bonus Deposit Match up to $100 with Promo Code 4FOR4 on Underdog Fantasy (Minimum $10 deposit)  👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3BMECYuSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/SharpClarkeNFLFollow John on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/notJDaigleVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3TbYo4X4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea

Hello and welcome to Move the Line. I'm Connor Allen filling in for your normal host Ryan Noonan. So we're switching it up a little bit today, but as always joined by John Daigle. Daigle, how was that Mezcal and tequila bar last night? I'm a big fan of Mezcal, excited to check it out there in Chicago. I know that's a big talking point after last night. Mayan Palace to support a small local business that just opened up in the winter. If you want a good tequila Mezcal bar. I don't know if that's your scene, but it's my scene and a little too much fun last night as Silva's takes about Greg Olson, then roll of timeline. And I started attacking him.

Yeah. We had a little pre-show discussion on who we would rather have, or, you know, who, who we like instead. I think that, I mean,

you guys are Joe Buck fans. It seems like I'm kind of neutral. I think that Greg's fine, but I thought he did a good job of explaining CPOE the other day. I thought that was solid, but otherwise pretty meh overall. Also joining us today is the man behind our sides in totals bets at 4 for 4, Sharp Clark. Clark, how are you doing today, man? Doing well, thanks. Happy to be here.

I'm in Colorado Springs right now with my wife's doing a music educators conference, and I'm hitching for the nice hotel room for free. So that's nice. Love that. Yeah, I get to go hang out, talk some football, probably eat some good food and hang out while she's working. So that's definitely nothing wrong with that. So before we dive in, though, just want to remind everyone, you can get our betting subscription right now for four for just nineteen dollars through the Super Bowl. Includes our subscriber only discord.

All of our picks, Daigle's DFS articles, TJ's DFS articles, and Sharp's bets as well. We've had some incredible discussion, I think, in the Discord this week surrounding some of the games. There's been people going back and forth and I think just educating each other on what should be the best bets. I think this is a great segue right into this first game. Has the Niners going on the road to the link to play the Eagles? Eagles opened up as one point favorites, now two and a half in most spots. There were a couple of threes early on in the week, but at this point we're two and a half pretty much across the board and the totals remained relatively stagnant since a 46 and a half. But since we only have two games, I kind of want to split this up into different segments.

That way we have focused conversation. Look at how each team matches up on both sides of the ball. So we'll start with when the Eagles have the ball. And Sharp, I want to kick it to you first here because you wrote a really well-researched article that brought to light some extremely unique and controversial points about this Eagles offense. Yeah, so I think we have to kind of go back to our priors heading into the season for this one. And preseason priors shouldn't really matter that much at this point in the season, but there's exceptions. So here last year, the Eagles were a team that dominated bad teams and lost to good teams. Every team they beat missed the playoffs last year. They had a combined win percentage of 34%, and every team they lost to had a combined win percentage of 59%, including five playoff teams. So it's just absolute split

of where the Eagles dominate bad teams and lose to good teams. And that's because of the way they're built. You know, they run the ball a lot. They're not the kind of like line up and beat you with five wide kind of sets that you see from guys like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. They're, they're like, we want to pound the rock and we want to use that to kind of force the defense to crowd the line of scrimmage and then capitalize on single coverage down field. And that works really well when everything's working. But when it doesn't work, it tends to

bleed into their weaknesses when they play from behind against good pass defenses. Now, that's last year's priors, right? So fast forward to this year. And the problem is they've pretty much only played bad teams. You know, they played the Cowboys and they're good, but they played them with Cooper Rush and Cooper Rush had several bad turnovers that gave the Eagles short fields and allowed them to build a lead in that game. So they were never really pressed by that pass rush. They played, I don't know, I mean, after that, who's the best team they've played? So when you're evaluating what we think about this team, I think those priors are relevant because we haven't really seen evidence to say that they are a materially different team against the best competition

and the best defenses. And we're still here in the conference championship round, and that hasn't changed. So it's possible that A.J. Brown and just, you know, Jalen Hurts getting a year better and a year older in the system, it's possible that they are a materially better offense. It's also possible that they are a materially better offense. It's also possible that they're not. And if they're not, then this game is completely mispriced, at least on when the Eagles have the ball on offense. And that's kind of my starting point is I think that that's a real possibility in this game.

Yeah, I get that. I think that's, that's pretty valid, especially with, you know, we went back and forth on talking about this Eagles team and like, can they, if there's a few questions here that I think we disagree on generally is can the Eagles come out and pass and have success against good pass defense? I don't think we necessarily know the answer against that. We've seen them go against, you know, other run funnels, but those run funnels or pass funnels, I'm sorry, but those pass funnels also had, you know, really good or really bad pass defense. So like the Titans are great example. They're tops in run defense, but they're like 25th, 27th in pass defense.

This Niners team is top, you know, top two in run defense, but also top five, top six in pass defense. So it's a little bit different situation there. Dago, I'd love to hear your thoughts on this matchup because I have a few other kind of matchups pinpointed on this side of the ball, but would love to get your take first. I personally think it should be Eagles three and a half,

but that would then garner a lot of action on the 49er side. It can't be three because everyone knows it's a fair number, and so the books wouldn't get any action on it. Thus, two and a half does make the most sense. That's where people are coming in at. I also know people have been citing Jalen Hurts, his last two performances. He's only completed two passes 20 yards deep, and everyone just thinks that's due to injury.

But we know his three quickest times from snap to throw this year occurred in all three games against the Giants. It was just a game plan situation to make life simpler since everyone knew that Wink Martindale was just going to blitz Jalen Hurts' head off. And so I think it's going to be a lot of Hurts in this game, especially because the Eagles know they can't run the ball in this game. Still, the most rushing yards against the 49ers all year was 67 to Josh Jacobs. That's it.

And so I don't expect any running back to have success on the ground on the weekend, actually. But let's just start in this game first for the Eagles. And so if we are just saying we are now going to simply put the ball in Jalen Hurts' hand, I think we already have a leg up on the Eagles. And then I don't want to transition too quickly, but I'll jump into what I think the real talking point is, and that's Brock Purdy against this defense, because he didn't have turnovers last week, but you could easily argue he failed his first true test. That

was the toughest defense he played, and now he's playing the toughest defense in back-to-back weeks, and he went four of 12 under pressure for four and a half yards per attempt Dallas sent the fewest blitzes of any team in the divisional round and Brock Purdy was under pressure at the highest rate and that tells us that okay if the Cowboys were able to not only get pressure with four four pass rushers in that game we also know the Cowboys led the league in pat and pressure rate with four pass rushes this season. And the Eagles not only are not far behind that in creating pressure,

they finished fourth in the regular season when sending three or four pass rushes and not blitzing. They were also the only team to average three sacks per game when sending four passes or less. And also the only team with a double digit sack rate when sending four pass rushes or less. And you could argue they got a bye week last week because none of their defensive players

played their regular amount of snaps. They were all benched in the second half. A.J. Brown only ran 10 routes. The defense was all scaled back and they had second stringers in for the entire fourth quarter. So I just think it's a tremendous situation and the opposite for the 49ers in this game. So we talk about strength of schedule

and I think Sharp brought it up initially here. And I think that this is a massive talking point for this side of the ball specifically. So when the Niners have the ball, the Niners with Brock Purdy so far, uh, first and pass DVOA fourth and run DVOA the Eagles right now, first and pass defense DVOA. So you're looking at top number one pass offense versus number one pass defense. But if you look at who they've played, so the, like J Daigle just mentioned, they've played essentially no one outside of the Cowboys and the Cowboys. And the Cowboys gave them a lot of trouble, especially when passing them while Brock Purdy

was under pressure, wasn't able to make things happen. They would have drives that started on the other side of the field, wasn't able to succeed there. Then we look at this Eagles team. The Eagles have played, I mean, maybe three good offenses all year. They played the Lions, the Jaguars early in the season before either of them hit their peak. So I don't really think they're comparable to where they finished the season. And then they played the Cowboys. They allowed

347 yards, three touchdowns and 40 points to the Cowboys. And that at that point, I think it was CJ Gardner Johnson was out for that game, but that was it. Like, you know, they had the rest of their core secondary, if I remember correctly. So like that makes it really tough to handicap this game because there's not really a lot of points that we can measure against of like comparable opponents or like how, where is like, like which point breaks. And so, you know, I got a chirp from Joey Kanish midweek talking about how, you know, of course it's going to be the seventh round rookie, you know, playing in the link. But you know, whatever, screw Kanish.

He doesn't know shit. So Clark, I'd love to hear your opinion. I'd love to hear your opinion on this because I know that I, you you've talked about the other side of the ball plenty, but like, what's your handicap on this side of the ball here? Because it is really fascinating. Yeah, this is, I kind of like both defenses on, in this matchup. You know, there's all this talk about Brock Purdy. He's a rookie. He's starting a playoff game on the road, but you know, Jalen Hurts and Brock Purdy

have both played two playoff games in their career. You know, they're not that far apart in terms of experience. People have been saying Brock Purdy is going to turn into a pumpkin for like eight weeks now. And all he does is keep winning. And I understand that he's been very fortunate. A lot of dropped interceptions, a lot of mistakes that ended up not costing him. So the numbers are a little bit misleading when you just look at that. But the thing is, this 49ers offense is the most multiple offense in the NFL. They have arguably the best running

back in the NFL, especially most versatile. They have the best left tackle. They have Debo Samuel, whose combination of power and speed is probably the highest in the league of any player. They've got Brandon Ayuk, who's running really good routes. George Kittle would be in the conversation for best tight end if Kelsey wasn't playing, especially when you consider his blocking. And you've got the mastermind Kyle Shanahan, who has put forward an effective offense every year with quarterbacks that just aren't needle movers. You know, I like Jimmy G. He's fine.

But, like, he's just operating Kyle Shanahan's offense with all his weapons. And people say, well, Brock Purdy's not as good like Jimmy G. He's fine. But like he's just operating Kyle Shanahan's offense with all his weapons. And people say, well, Brock Purdy is not as good as Jimmy G. He makes more mistakes. He takes more risks. And I think there's two things that kind of go against that. One is Brock Purdy takes more risks. And I think that opens up the offense. Like his ability to throw downfield, his willingness to throw downfield, keeps defenses honest, and I think opens things up in the short routes for things like Debo Samuel crossing 10 yards downfield and turning it upfield because nobody's there to stop him. And then the second thing I think that is different is this set of weapons that Purdy's playing with right now is more than Jimmy G's ever played with in the system.

This is the best version of the 49ers offense that has existed outside of the quarterback. So Brock Purdy's being put into the best situation, arguably, of any quarterback in the history of the NFL right now with the weapons that he has around him. And I think he's good enough to just kind of make that work. Now, here's where it gets tricky. His best performances have come against teams that love to blitz because that offense is all about capitalizing on defensive mistakes. And the Eagles, like you said, are more of a straight up, no blitz, like, you know, you've got to beat us kind of defense. And so I think

it's going to be really interesting how that matches up. I think Purdy will make some mistakes here. I just hope that as a 49ers backer, I just hope that they're not the kind of mistakes that end up, you know, backbreaking them like a pick six or something, because I could really swing this game. I'm hoping it's more mistakes like, you know, he takes a sack and they have to punt or maybe another drop to interception, things like that. I feel good about my assessment also because I am someone who has backed Purdy in the face of many who keep calling him a system quarterback. I've kept yelling back saying, no, he's much more than that.

I think there's a greater odds of him being the team starter next year than Trey Lance since Kyle Shanahan has already called Purdy the best rookie he's ever coached, which is a slap in the face to a lot of rookies and also just outright saying, I still hate Trey Lance. And I cannot believe we didn't take Mac Jones because we got pressured by the public for that pick. So, yeah, it just seems like after, again,

what was a poor performance and failing against pressure finally against a above average defense last week, it seems like that's the real X factor here. And now is the time to where I can say, I do not believe in him in this game. That's fair. Um, I, I do fully expect him to start. I think that that's, uh, you know, our next year, I think that that makes a lot of sense. Uh, at this point though, I think the reason they drafted Trey Lance was because they wanted

to take more chances. They wanted to have someone who is willing to take more risks downfield, you know, just in general. And so if Brock Purdy is able to do that and competently execute the scheme that they have, then of course they're going to stick with him. So I think it's no brainer there. The crazy thing is that he actually, yes, he takes chances, but they're educated chances. They're not really high risk.

He doesn't put himself, and yes, there have been dropped interceptions, but risk he doesn't put himself and yes there have been dropped interceptions but he really doesn't put himself in harm's way often like between him and Dak Prescott last week the difference in key plays of just keeping your offensive live were incredible because one did not look like a veteran and the person drafted in the very last pick just this past year looked like a uh a wise quarterback yeah it's it's funny because if you watch his like tape from iowa state it doesn't really look at all like what we're seeing now uh because he was kind of just like a you know yolo ball gunslinger just like running around like he had no i mean he didn't have any help so he was just trying to make the most what he added you

know over iowa state like that obviously the situation is a lot different but it is very funny how that turned out here i kind of think that they go run heavy here to start and like implement a power run offense i know they go you said that they don't go with, you know, they, that neither running back will have a ton of success. If we just kind of look at this defense, like I know the run defense, the Eagles run defense has played better as of late, but I think if we're comparing the past events and the run defense, I think that's probably still their weakness in this spot comparatively. And so the Niners, I mean, like Clark mentioned, you know, have one of the best, you know, running games and potential to be a power running game if they want to

essentially just like the multiple lists of like what they want to do. So, I mean, I kind of think that they try and implement that obviously if they fall behind, they're going to have to switch some things up, but I would guess that's how they come out. Maybe, maybe I'm wrong. I don't know. I mean, maybe Shanahan just decides to do what he did last week or the two weeks ago, which was he was lining up like CMC in the slot for the first like five six snaps and then rotating with debo in the backfield and like it was i mean i don't know how defense stops that but um the cowboys figured it out so i think that at this point like way it took the niners basically just being like okay we're not gonna be able to kind of scheme our way through this game we're gonna

have to just run into like a brick wall three yards and hope to convert on third down that's basically what they conceded by the end of the game last week. And so I think we're going to kind of see the same, but maybe have a little bit more success against the Eagles here. Any, Dagle, I know we got a prop show coming up here in a little bit, but I'd love to hear any props that you like for this game specifically. Well, you mentioned Eagles or the 49ers potentially running the ball or the Eagles running the ball. I comp the situation to, and I could be just way off here, who knows, but I comp it to when the Eagles played Dallas, again, the most formidable pass rush they faced all year,

and their game plan to negate Dallas' pass rush was to not only line up Miles Sanders, basically strong side against Micah Parsons every single down, and just run RPOs and make Parsons either chase Sanders or choose Jalen Hurts, one or the other, the entire way down. That game was A.J. Brown's lowest depth of target all year long, just 4.8 yards. He had a 32% target share in that game

because they were literally just dumping the ball off again with him underneath, just going for Yak, trying to get rid of the ball so quickly that Hurts wasn't in the face of danger. And if that's the case, I looked at AJ Brown's receptions prop, it is, and receiving yards, and they're both juiced pretty high at the best book I saw. I think it was points bet minus 144.

So I didn't release it in the Discord, but I do think it's not only for squeaky wheel purposes, for A.J. Brown coming out and basically complaining about his targets last week, even though he was clearly injured. Again, he didn't play in the second half, so I don't know what target he's going to get anyways. But I do think it's a game where they hammer him, receptions and receiving yards.

So that's kind of the first spot I look in this game. Yeah. Clark, I know props are not your thing, but any, any, you know, any specific matchups or players stand out to you? Like, I know that we've talked about AJ Brown. I think that like in this spot, the Niners one kind of weakness was like explosive pass rate, 21st explosive pass rate alone. When they do allow a big pass, it happens sometimes, uh, from time to time, but you know, I know you're not a props guy, but any thoughts

or anything that you've tailed that you really like so far? So anything, anything like I think the best way that I like to do props is kind of like, you know, package them together in sort of a game script idea, because that's kind of how I view the games. And I'm going to actually just sit here and make my case for the 49ers, because I feel like I was a little bit passive in my in my intro. Like, I really like the 49ers here. And one of the reasons is because a lot of people are saying the 49ers defense hasn't really played anyone and the Eagles defense hasn't really played anyone. And so it's going to come down to the better quarterback, which just hurts. But I think the 49ers defense is levels and levels and levels better

than the Eagles defense. And I know that the numbers don't say it. The numbers say, oh, well, the Eagles are, you know, whatever, ranked one and two and the Niners ranked one and two, whatever. The Eagles have not played anyone, you know, like defensively, their slate of teams that they played is pathetic. The Lions are good and they put up 35 on them. The Packers are OK. I mean, Aaron Rodgers is good. They put up 30, 33 maybe on them. The Cowboys are good. They put up 40 on them. Outside of that, nobody.

The 49ers defense, one, has had some serious injuries throughout the year, especially early on. Atlanta, Kansas City, they had some guys out. They've played Geno Smith three times. I like Geno Smith. They played Matthew Stafford when he was healthy with the Rams twice. They played Patrick Mahomes. They played Justin Herbert and the Chargers.

They played Tua and the Dolphins when they were riding high. They played Tom Brady and the Bucs. And so I don't think that the 49ers schedule is that weak. And I'm not sure where all this stuff is coming from about like, well, they haven't played anyone. Their defense has been absolutely incredible and just shut down the Cowboys who were at their best on offense. So I think there's

a complete mismatch here on the defensive side for San Francisco. And so I would think like, you know, unders on Eagles rushing, unders on, you know, Jalen Hurts passing yards. Like we've seen him play a pass rush like this once. And in that game, the longest completion he had was 22 yards in the entire game. So maybe, you know, longest completion under, whereas the people that are kind of like, Oh, the 49ers pass defense is super weak to long plays. It's kind of pushing those numbers up. I don't think that that's going to be accurate because the pass rush should

get home to hurts and should prevent those kinds of plays. So I think, I think kind of countering the narrative that the Eagles are going to be able to throw deep is probably my favorite prop angle. If the 49ers do have success, and again, we are on completely opposite sides of the spectrum, we should bet a glass of wine or Mezcal Marg on this. But we know at least, okay, there you go. That's what we're betting on this then, friendly wager.

We at least know that the ball only goes through Debo Samuel with Brock Purdy. Brandon Ayuk and George Kittle yes George Kittle exploded without Debo Samuel but now we have five starts with Samuel and Purdy together Debo has a 25 percent target share where Ayuk has a 15 percent target share uh George Kittle his longest play last week 30 yards that helped him even reach like 90 was a busted coverage was a breakdown he wasn't even the initial read like it was brought pretty throwing across his body to the other side of the field and even george kittle had that bobble like he was so surprised that purdy could even make that throw because it just wasn't supposed to be there so it's pretty much all goes through devo samuel yeah what what an insane insane play that was it was awesome though i mean it was like

bobbling you know ran around so i think personally, like my favorite play of the week that I can't even release on the prop show at this point, we took miles Sanders under 57 rushing yards. I mean, that's like 49 at this point. Uh, and I, I think that's about right. I mean, because we look at like in similar situations, like the Eagles have come out past heavy, and I think they're probably going to try and do that again and maybe run a lot of like RPOs, like kind of like you were talking about, but I think that that we're going to, that's what we're going to see is probably a lot of design QB runs. We've seen this Eagles team, or we've seen a D'Amico Ryan's led defense in the last two years based three mobile quarterbacks. Basically he allowed a hundred

yards to Justin Fields, 80 yards to hurts himself, but he definitely held hurts down in the passing game at that point. And also allowed 50 yards of six carries to Mariota. Now they're a little bit banged up at that point. Generally, though, from a schematic standpoint, from my understanding, it's just not been their strong suit specifically defending that. So I think that Hurts could have some success on the ground that way, but I expect Miles Sanders to have no success generally.

And then I think if you want to take some A.J. Brown overs, that's fine. But I think the receptions are the better point, like Dago was saying. I'm just not sure that I'm willing to pay minus 150 on an over. I mean, that some AJ Brown overs. That's fine. But I think the receptions are the better point. Like they go saying, I'm just not sure that I'm willing to pay minus one 50 on an over. I mean, that kind of just sucks. So, and, and Quez Watkins ladders,

get you some in your life. Oh boy. Oh boy. Love it. Um, all right, well, cool.

We spent enough time, I think on this game discussing that let's move on to the other game this weekend, matchup between the chiefs and bangles at arrowhead in Kansas city. So this line has been all over the place, opened up with the chiefs as small favorites at one point and then swung all the way to the Bengals at minus two and a half with issues surrounding Mahomes' high ankle sprain.

People were saying that he wasn't going to be able to even play at one point, which I thought it was always crazy because he's Patrick Mahomes. And you saw him on the sidelines literally last week. Even when it happened, he said, he told Andy Reid, fuck that, I'm going back in. Like literally you could see his, his, see his, uh, words there. So I think at this point now you're looking at the chief swing all the way back to minus one and a half point favorites because we saw the video Patrick Mahomes walking well, jogging. Okay. So Daigle, let's start, I guess on that side of the ball, the biggest story here,

Mahomes, like what are your expectations for him and any thoughts on the matchup when the Chiefs do have the ball? Do we have any idea why his passing prop got steamed up to 286 yards after we all confidently bet it at 273 under? Oh, it's because of the news that they, that he's like healthy. You know, that's like, I still like the, I still like that's great. He hasn't eclipsed 275 yards in the last three matchups against the Bengals I don't I don't get that at all also if you look at the Bengals defense like all they do is turn the best quarterbacks into dust like even Josh Allen couldn't reach complete 60 percent of his passes against the Bengals um it's just it seems like honestly as bad of a matchup as it gets for Mahomes since the Bengals have had his number in particular. And so I still don't know why it increased.

I still love that number. I do know the bet, the side for the Bengals or the Chiefs, it did move because there was a syndicate in Vegas that came in and took the biggest number before Mahomes was cleared for practice Wednesday. I'm assuming they got information that he was going to be out at practice. So they probably just took the best number possible. And then now, of course, we see the line move all the way in favor of the Chiefs. But overall, yeah, it's Mahomes hasn't had success already in this matchup in their last three games. I don't know why I would suddenly

expect it in this one. All three games have been close against the Bengals, field goal decisions, even though both teams basically led by two scores at some point in all three of those games, forcing the other side to come roaring back. So it's odd because we're trying to talk about it as Mahomes is healthy. I don't know if it matters if he's healthy, though. It still seems like, again, for whatever, for whatever a bad match for Mahomes is the Bengals have had his number for sure. And there's, there's multiple layers to this too, because there's beyond like Mahomes limping. Like I, you know, I was a little bit buzzed last week

and during this game. So I went back and watched the second half of my homes was injured. Um, he made four to five legitimately horrible throws. Like he overthrew a guy, threw it into the dirt, you know, like threw it behind them. And he, most of his stats, like his EPA looks good. You know, people were telling, Oh, well, he still had a great EPA in the second half. If you go back and watch the throws, like those came on short throws to Kelsey, who basically like shed a tackle and ran for 12 yards. He had a great throw over the middle to Noah gray, but he was wide open. I mean, like, I think most of us could have made that throw. And then he had a good comeback route to Juju, who, I mean, basically just use his body to

shield from Tyson Campbell. So like those, there was like three good throws that were like actual real Mahomes throws. The rest were like dump offs to Tony or Kelsey or like screens. Like there was nothing really all that impressive there. And so I was like worried. I was like, you know what? Take the under here. On top of that, you're getting freezing cold temperatures.

We're getting temperatures that'll feel like in the single digits. we're getting wind speeds. It'll be 15 miles per hour, roughly with Gus in the twenties, at least at the last forecast that I looked at, that's enough to impact deep throws, especially if a quarterback like Mahomes isn't able to drive through his legs. I think that could be an issue. And on top of that, like they had a ton of success running against his Bengals team last time that they played like the most success of the Bengals have allowed actually all season with DJ reader. Like there are four running backs have cleared 50 yards against the Bengals this season with DJ reader. Two of them were McKinnon and Pacheco. Like that's to me, that's crazy. And so I think that they maybe go a little bit run heavier here.

I think that they probably try and utilize a lot of quick passes, try and not get my homes mobile. I mean, I think that the easiest way for the Bengals to stop them is just, they're going to bring some heat early and test my homes to see if he's mobile enough. And because, I mean, if he's not mobile, they're just going to send the house like as much as possible, basically. So, Sharp, I'd love to get your take on this side of the ball here. I know Daigle and I have gone on about it here, and maybe you have a different opinion.

Yeah, I mean, ankle injury aside, which we can get to in a second, I completely disagree about Patrick Mahomes. You don't get Patrick Mahomes' number. You can stop him for stretches. And, like, it cracks me up right now. I just looked up, you know, Mahomes' career EPA per play against the Bengals is still plus 0.147, which is, like, know, not Mahomes level, but still very, very good. So even having Mahomes' number is like a relative concept. The thing about it is every time people

have thought that they have figured out Mahomes or figured out how to slow down Mahomes, he has always had, he and Andy Reid and the enemy in this offense has always had an answer. And sure, what they did in the second half of the playoff game last year was like really impressive like my home's just completely shelled up I it was like as a Chiefs fan it was awful to watch but that's also taped so like what what is you know you know the Chiefs are prepared for that this year you know it uh what are the Bengals going to do as like a next counterpunch what are they going to have prepared to answer what the Chiefs are going to answer within this game? It's kind of like a microcosm of the entire NFL. Like every season, defensive coordinators go into the offseason and say,

how can we stop Mahomes? And every year he figures it out and he's a step ahead. And so that's kind of how I view this game is in a vacuum. I don't believe the Bengals defense is good enough to shut down Mahomes for an entire game. Even in the three games that they've played, it's not like the Bengals have been, you know, oh, they just own the Chiefs. It's been three games that basically are 50-50 toss-up games, and all of them have gone the Bengals' way. You know, even this year, the Chiefs were driving in the fourth quarter up four. Kelsey catches a first-down pass and then fumbles the ball.

Bengals get the ball. They go score a touchdown. Bengals are up three. Chiefs drive down, miss a field goal. Bengals win by three. So even that game, it's like, you know, I'm not saying the Bengals didn't deserve to win. I'm saying it was a 50-50 game that could have gone either way. A lot of things happen in the margins.

And so I think the Chiefs playing at home should have the advantage and should be favored. All that said, Mahomes requires mobility to be Mahomes. He simply is not Mahomes when he can't be mobile. And it's not just running. It's his maneuverability in the pocket. It's manipulating the defense by, you know, like seeing things and then running to the spot that's open and watching it happen downfield while he's running. Like you could see in the second half, like you were saying against the Jags, all of that went out the window and it was like, here's pocket quarterback Mahomes. And he's just not the same. He's just not elite. I know the numbers were fine last week,

but like you said, it was a lot of dump offs, a lot of things like that, that probably won't happen against the Bengals. If the ankle is going to bother Mahomes, that changes the equation completely in the Bengals should be favored here. Also, I don't know what Mike Caldwell was doing in not changing up anything mid game and just allowing Travis Kelsey to have 14 catches to the team's 13 around him. But Lou Edarumo is not letting that happen. Like, uh, there is no way Travis Kelsey replicates a 45.9% target share again. Um, I would imagine they're going to have, the Bengals are going to have a significant answer for that. Yeah.

I think Kelsey had one of his worst game of the seasons earlier against them. I think it was like four for 60 or four for 50, something like that. I mean, it was like, obviously like, you know, a good line for most people, but again, it's like Travis Kelsey. So, you know, I, I think that, yeah, it's like, it's, it's, it's a really tough matchup for me because I do think that they have some success, you know, a little bit more success than normal running. And I just really worry about my homes because if they bring the heat, like, like, again, like I fully expect them the first drive, they are going to bring as many people as possible and probably play man,

just like tight man and see, like beat us, you know, see, see what happens in the first two plays. And that'll dictate, I think almost the entire game, because if, you know, they, they win those couple of plays, then I think the Mahomes could be, you know, the chiefs could be in trouble, you know, if the Bengals end up winning that. And I think that that's something to watch for, for sure. I also think that there's a non-zero chance of re-injury. And this is actually true.

I actually apply this to Jalen Hurts as well with his shoulder. When you're, when you're betting spreads in the NFL, like the margins are so slim that you have something where it's like, okay, there's like a three to 4% chance that Mahomes re-injures his ankle in game and becomes, you know, completely immobile. Like that's three or four percentage points that like in those scenarios, they're almost always going to end with a Bengals win.

So those types of edges, like they might seem small, they might seem remote, but like it's a real possibility. And that should be factored in any betting decisions people make. For sure. Yeah, I think that's it's this game particularly. I don't have I haven't bet on the side or total at all. And that's because I guess I'm Mahomes ankle injury because it did entirely changes the game.

If he's mobile at all, you know, this game, I mean, a 47 and a half point total is five to six points too low. Like, I mean, this is like, you know, should be in the low fifties. Um, and if he is not, I mean, this game might be like, you know, 20 to 17. Uh, and so I think that that's like very easy. It's very close either way. Um, but I think on the other side of the ball, there's a big talking point, you know, that everyone talked about last week since he's offensive line and missing three starters and they came out and dominated, like, I mean, thoroughly, thoroughly dominated the other team. So we lost Dagle here mid show, but, um, you know, it's, it was one of the most surprising

things that I've seen, at least in the recent weeks. And I know, I think you felt the same Clark, uh, because they came out and ran the ball. Well, there was massive holes for mixing. They came out and Burrow was getting the ball out quick and, you know, was able to, I guess, succinctly run the offense here and get a pickup chunk play. So any thoughts on that side of the ball here against Kansas city? Yeah. What they did to the bills was, was absolutely shocking. I mean, I think the snow played a role because it's just a lot harder to cut on defense and the bills decided to play a bunch of zone. And so it was like, Burrow would just take the snap and then it's like oh look there's

Jamar Chase at the line of scrimmage I'm just gonna kind of toss it to him and then Jamar Chase catches it and then just runs for 12 yards and it's like all right next play oh look there's another guy behind the line of scrimmage I'm just gonna kind of toss it to him then he runs for 12 yards it was like the Bills were so slow to react to what the Bengals were doing. They had no pressure on Burrow. When they decided to run the ball, they would get like eight yards. It was just like nothing they could do could stop, you know, nothing that the Bills were doing on defense could stop anything the Bengals are doing on offense. And I think that will be very different on a field if it's not snowing. I haven't checked the weather report today, but if it's not snowing, I think that does

change things. The offensive line becomes a bigger deal. It becomes a little bit easier to pass rush. Chris Jones has been playing out of his mind this year. You know, you got player Frank Clark making plays. The Chiefs defense always does this every year. They show up in the playoffs and you're like, where was this defense all year? Like they just, they kind of bring it.

So I do think the Bengals offensive line is somewhat of a concern here. And I do think the job that Joe Burrow has to do is going to be a lot harder than it was against the Bills overall. But, you know, Joe Burrow is a very good quarterback. The Bengals have some really strong and fast receivers, which is the Chiefs weakness.

You know, in the last three games they've played against each other, one of the reasons the Bengals have won is because they have earned nine first downs from penalties and the Chiefs have only earned two and some of that is you know you can say well that's it's kind of like well the refs are giving the Bengals all these free yards they're also valid penalties like that just shows that the Chiefs are unable to cover these guys one-on-one and they love to play man so I think that the I think the Bengals have the horses to kind of overcome the problems they're going to face, but I do think they're going to face some

problems in this game. They didn't face against the Bills. Yeah. Dagle, any, any thoughts here on the, on this Bengals offense? I just don't want to make the same mistake as last week and attribute their offensive line to why the Bengals will struggle. Cause again, that's what I did last week and it doesn't matter because Burrow's getting rid of the ball so quick so for Chris Jones and for like the other Chiefs all-world pass rushers I just I don't know like what impact they actually have Burrow the last month now since ever since they lost Lyle Collins initially and now of course they're missing three starters has gotten rid of the ball in 2.3 seconds from snap to throw not even letting pressure get to him at all not to mention when he he did hold onto the ball for a little bit longer

last week, he went six of 12 for two touchdowns and no picks on throws 10 yards downfield. And so if the Chiefs, like we keep saying, like the Chiefs will be able to get pressure. I don't think they will because of the way the Bengals play offense. And so if we know that, and then we're looking at more running back dump offs, we're looking at Jamar Chase, whose depth of target has continued to decrease, but they're only giving him the ball. Like that's all they're feeding.

Since week 14, when he returned from injury, he's led the Bengals in targets every single game. In that span, he's averaging 12 targets per game with a 31 and a half percent target share. It just seems like the way they are scheming and playing right now, I don't even pay attention to the chiefs pass rush. Honestly. Interesting. I, I, so I think it matters a little bit more than you suggested. And partially because what we saw with the bills was like, if you think about how the bills play, like they, they sit back, play zone and try and make you like, you have to beat them.

And so like, you know, and they, since losing Von Miller, they're like 19th in pressure rate. So like, you know, their front four, like was not winning at all and they weren't blitzing. Whereas the chiefs, like, I think have a little bit more of an opportunity to schematically say, okay, well, you know, we're going to try and bring pressure and we're going to play a little bit closer to you guys. And like, you're really going to have to beat us. Um, just like, you know, like we're going to try and get a, let our pass rush, get home and bring blitzes and like be a little bit more different, I guess, than the bills because shout out to noon and last week, you know, noon and brought up some great points about that, you know, heading into the

weekend was like, Hey, like, you know, I think that burrows capable of beating this bill's defense because it's like a zone. They're missing a couple of key guys in the secondary, like, you know, burrows smart enough to get the ball quick and they'll have opportunity to do so. And that's fine. That works well. I just think this chiefs defense is a little bit different. I do get your point though, that they did such a good job, like getting the ball out quick, that it definitely makes it scary fading them. But I don't know. I kind of think that the Chiefs have a little bit more success than like, oh, I mean a lot more success than the Bills did. But you know, like I, maybe not, maybe I'm wrong there. So Clark, you know, any, any last thoughts

on this side of the ball? Yeah, no, I totally agree with you, Connor. Think about, we get so caught up in what happened last. It's so stuck in our brain. But we're just two weeks removed from a game where Burrow played really badly against the Ravens and should have lost to the Ravens and Tyler Huntley. So what do the Bills do that's so different from the Ravens? And it's just like you said, the Bills played this passive zone.

We're going to give you 10 yards. Like we're not going to press you. And Burrow was like, all right, I'm going to get rid of the ball in two seconds every play. The Ravens didn't let that happen. They played a lot more man, a lot more press. And the Chiefs are going to do that too, probably. And we've seen the Tampa Bay Bucks do it too.

They blitz a lot more, play a lot more man. And when they played the Bucs, when the Bengals played the Bucs, Joe Burrow also didn't have a good game. The only reason they won that game was because they had that string of like five turnovers deep in Tampa Bay territory and just capitalized on them. They were losing that game before that. So I think we are going to see a materially different Bengals offense. And I think we get a little skewed by what we saw most recently. And I do think that I do think that we're going to see some, you know, some bumps along the road for the Bengals offense, which is why, you know, my home's injury becomes such a huge factor because I don't think they can afford a lot of bumps in the road. If my home's is fully healthy.

If I may play devil's advocate of that, uh, I will just say, we talked about that. Remember? And, um, like I liked the Ravens to cover that game against the Bengals because the Ravens have had Joe Burrow figured out since he entered the league. That's why in all three games against the Ravens this year, he was under seven yards per attempt. And so it's like the Dolphins and Bills. It's a completely different matchup where these opponents understand one another, whereas we look to the Chiefs game

the last time these two teams played, and even then the Chiefs weren't able to get pressure on Joe Burrow. And he went 22 of 27 from a clean pocket for nine yards per attempt. So, yeah, I mean, I think the game just comes down to basically getting pressure on Burrow. And again, the way they play offense, I just don't see that happening. But there is a lot of smart money on the Chiefs, I will say. I'm on an island here. So that was three offensive linemen ago as well, that game.

He did validly play really well that game, but I think things are a little different now in a way that didn't impact the Bills game that might impact this one. Yeah. This is a tough spot because I know you played played the over clark i kind of like the under like i don't know i mean it's again it's terrifying to take an under into my home's game in a homes borough game but it's everything we talked about here like i'm worried about a little bit worried about my homes and his mobility and how much that impacts the upside on a play-to-play basis

i'm a little bit worried about borough you know given the the offensive line issues so if we kind of look at both those like obviously they're both capable of doing anything on any given play, you know, capable of scrambling out and throwing a 70 yard bomb to one of their talented players. But for me, I just, I think that the total is a little bit too high, 47 and a half. I know you like the over though. Are you still as confident in it? Yeah. I mean, I got it at 46 and a half, so it's moved a little bit in my favor, but I still, I still lean. I don't know that I wouldn't play it at 48, but I think you have two quarterbacks who are elite basically. And so the,

the like over-unders tend to come down to a few different things and it's not simply, is this offense better than this defense? It's, it's things like how likely are the teams to score points in a two minute drill? And with Patrick Holmes and Joe Burrow, like it's almost a certainty. And they both might even score within the two minutes of each half. If it's a close game,

is it going to be a back and forth type scoring game? Or is it going to be kind of a grinded out game where the defense makes stops? Both of those, in my opinion, are in favor of the offense in this game. I think we see a competitive game that leads to scores down the stretch. And I think we see conversions before the half. And so that pushes me over the total.

I do think that if it got to 49, 49 and a half, I think that's when you would probably consider playing the under. But at 48 for me, it's a lean over. That's fair because the number is at its lowest point. I do think both games go under this weekend, though. I think we're in store for some sloppy, like, San Antonio Spurs football. Yeah. Yeah. It's interesting because if you think back to some of these Mahomes playoff games, I mean, imagine being an under-better in the game against Brady,

where they scored, like, 45 points in the fourth quarter, and the game against Josh Allen, where there was, what, four touchdowns scored in the last two minutes of that game or whatever it was. I mean, like these games can turn South quick. And so for those of you who are like, you know, like, again, I said, I lean under, if you are just watching the game for fun, don't bet the fucking under, like, just don't do it because you're going to be pissing yourself the entire game when inevitably, you know, one of these, like, like Clark said, you know, one of these like two minute drives happen. Um,

but Daigle, any, any prop thoughts or anything here before we kind of close it up? Oh yeah. Lots of them. I am back on the Samaj P Ryan train, given what we talked about, how quickly Burroughs getting rid of the ball.

We liked P Ryan ladders receptions last last week we talked about on the show. But it's an even better matchup now since the Chiefs are second in receptions per game allowed to running backs. Right now, I believe if you're shopping it, the best line you can get is plus money at over two and a half receptions. I think it opened at one and a half and it just got ruined so quickly. So that is quite high, but I'm still willing to take a chance on it and the chiefs are also ninth and receiving yards per game allowed to running backs this year and as we've seen the playoffs p-run is

out snapped joe mixon 20 to 5 on third and fourth down and has run more routes than mixing and back to back games like he is their receiving back so definitely like some p ron receptions and then i guess if you can find like a reasonable number on receptions for jamar chase again i think he's just continues to get hammered the ball significantly uh as they've done as we talked about since week 14 yeah that makes a lot of sense they're definitely in line on the p ron one we'll talk about that more in uh next show there. Oh, and one more. Noah Gray, I forgot to discuss. It does come down and may get affected by Jody Fortson's health. That's what we're waiting on,

because it sounds like the Chiefs are getting all their scrubs back that aren't actually going to matter to this game. They're getting McCole Hardman, Jody Fortson, Clyde Edwards-Alaire, none which will have an impact on the game. But nonetheless, Noah saw him we've seen his route participation increase in four consecutive games including last week against the Jaguars when he ran on route on 50 percent of dropbacks and so if the Chiefs are going to continue using 12 personnel which they did last week against the Jags they passed uh 14 of 19

dropbacks from 12 personnel they passed on. So I like Noah grade over. It was 12 and a half. I think it got up to 13 or 14 and a half now, which does, you know, it doesn't seem like much, but it is a little bit of a leap for the backup tight end. But again, I do not expect Travis Kelsey to have success in this game or as much success, even close to what he had last week.

Yeah. Kind of like what we were talking about with the over. I don't really want to be holding a Kelsey under in a must-win game in the playoffs, but I think that that's probably the right side. So for me, it's just kind of a stay away. But I love the other ones there. Jamar Chase receptions right now at 6.5, minus 140.

You're getting a discount after last week, 7.5 plus money. I think the over is a legit look there. It is minus 140. So annoying though. It's so, yeah. I mean, laying juice on over sucks because, you know, you still need every, like most things to go right to hit an over. Whereas laying juice on an under, like, you know, they need to perform like you're betting

against human performance on an under, which generally is a smart move. And there's, there's no way that I'm betting an under on Jamar chase, AJ Brown or Travis Kelsey. I'd rather just fade the bet. Yeah, no, exactly. Just don't play it. Don't play yourself through that pain. Clark, any props, takes, or anything else you kind of want to get out in the open before we turn off the show here?

Yeah, I don't hang out in the prop streets as much, so I don't know what the price is, and maybe it's too high. But Isaiah Pacheco's rushing over, I think, is worth a look with, one, trying to keep the pressure off Mahomes, and two, the Bengals are going to say, we're going to do everything we can to not get beat through the air. And I think that's going to open things up for the run game. And that's something the Chiefs have not had in previous years, or even earlier this year, is Pacheco's hard-nosed running style. So I think they're going to really, really lean into that in this game. Yeah. And it is interesting. Like I mentioned, you know, Pacheco, one of four running backs to clear 50 yards against them with DJ reader. And what I thought was interesting, if you go back and look at that game is they had a ton of success running out of

the shotgun. And like, you know, I've just noticed generally like the bangles and other good running teams, like when they get run on against the shotgun, it's just a little bit different because they don't have as many guys in the box. And that even though they're a good running teams like when they get run on against the shotgun it's just a little bit different because they don't have as many guys in the box and that even though they're a good running team like good run defending team that it's just like it changes the dynamic first we look at this bangles team against you know say the ravens or someone else like who plays a little bit more under center or generally just like a power run offense like it's it's a lot different and they're really good against in those situations but i noticed they've been a little bit more susceptible and also uh john paulson our, our guy who does all of our projections at four,

four actually messaged me about the Pacheco Pacheco prop. He's like, Hey, like, why is this so low? It's only 47 and a half rushing yards right now. Um, Oh,

wow. Yeah. I like that. Yeah. So I think the over there is an interesting look, I guess, you know, I think there's a lot of ways it gets there.

I think they probably go run a little bit, run a little bit more too. So, well, I think that's going to be a really interesting chess match early on in this game when the chiefs have the ball, because what the chiefs are probably going to want to do what i would expect is they're going to say all right we are going to go power we're going to go big and we're going to run at you if you're going to insist on having eight you know dropping eight

and that's the bengals going to have a choice at that point they're going to be like okay we're either going to stay stubborn and stay stay in our dropping eight and try to stop the run with, you know, DJ Reader and the linebackers, or they're going to say, okay, we need to stop the run. We need to devote more defenders. We need to put in some bigger bodies. And then that opens things up for the Chiefs offense. I think it's going to be a really interesting chess match. And I would lean that the Bengals are going to try to be stubborn and stop the run with lighter defenses for a longer period of time, which is why I like Pacheco. Yeah, it's smart.

And if they're going those jumbo sets, you're going to get a lot of that play action to Noah Gray, right? You're going to get some of that going as well. So I think that's definitely a good look for sure. Well, guys, it's been fun. It was a good time here filling in for Noonan as the host. Appreciate Clark on vacation or I guess semi-vacation joining us. Daigle in your mezcal hungover stupor,

hanging in there through some inter-edition. It's the off-season. Give me a couple of weeks and I'll dive back in. Yeah, you're going on a trip, right? Or you're planning on thinking about taking a little bit of time off there, right? Hopefully. Yeah, a week after the Super Bowl, I'll be gone. But then I'll have available targets and air yards for and carries for everyone ahead of free agency

and then from that point forward you know we're spinning we're still spinning ideas but we'll have some dynasty content on the most accurate podcast feed not to mention offseason shows even if they're quick hitters on player news and coaching news and whatnot so yeah we'll be back awesome awesome and and clark i know you've had some ideas worrying about the offseason about how even if they're quick hitters on player news and coaching news and whatnot. So yeah, we'll be back. Awesome. Awesome. And Clark, I know you've had some ideas worrying about the off season, about how to leverage your data a little bit more and look at some new tools. Really excited to put that to use and, and it'll work something out for next year because I think there's some,

some great stuff that can be used a lot like your analysis this week, I think in like a much more easy to digest manner with some stuff on the site. So that's exciting stuff for sure. Yeah. I always love the playoffs because I watch every game, every snap of every game. And so during the season, it's a complete grind.

And then once the games go down to like six, four, two games, I find myself with all this time that I've been spending analyzing film. And it really like opens up my brain to sort of see things from a higher perspective. And I've really learned a lot of lessons already about this, this whole season,

just in the last couple of weeks, having that time to reflect. So I'm excited to, to really grow as a better and grow in my analysis as we move forward. I love that. Love that. Yeah. It's been great stuff so far.

It's been an awesome season. I mean, we got to riff on two games for 45 minutes here. So, you know, nothing better than that. Just a reminder, betting sub right now,

$19, 62, the super bowl. And I will be going live today at 2 PM Eastern with Pat Mayo. Just a reminder, betting sub right now, $19.62 to the Super Bowl. And I will be going live today at 2 p.m. Eastern with Pat Mayo. So you get two shows in one day. Appreciate you guys all hanging out. We'll be back in a couple hours for Daigle, for Sharp. I'm Connor.

Thanks for listening. you