Move The Line - FREE NFL Divisional Round Picks | Expert Bets & Predictions

Episode Date: January 19, 2023

NFL Divisional Round Preview! Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan & John Daigle get you ready for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. They share their top NFL bets, fantasy tips, and fantasy advice.Timestamps:0:00 Intro4:42 Jaguars-Chiefs Preview17:47 Giants-Eagles Preview29:47 Bengals-Bills Preview41:46 Cowboys-49ers Preview57:10 OutroSHOW NOTES (for both feeds)Want a FREE 4for4 Betting Subscription? Deposit $10 into a new BetMGM account using promo code 4FOR4 👉🏼  https://4for4.com/go/BetMGMGet a FREE 4for4 Pro or DFS Sub & Bonus Deposit Match up to $100 with Promo Code 4FOR4 on Underdog Fantasy (Minimum $10 deposit)  👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3BMECYuSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow John on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/notJDaigleVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3TbYo4X4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea

Welcome to Moving Line, I'm Ryan Noonan, joined here as always by my friends Connor Allen, John Daigle, Connor. This is my favorite weekend of the year. I mean, really outside of week one, we have the anticipation of real football. We've been like doing this for months and waiting and speculating and futures and all that stuff that goes into week one. Four games, good teams, for the most part impactful football. I love this weekend. How are we doing, buddy? Good. I mean, it's tough to top top last week i thought we got some great games there's two games that i expect to be awesome this weekend and two games that i have a really strong lean on one team and i think the

market does as well so excited to break it down with you guys here and uh sorry for spamming the go live button early without uh playing our intro but we'll probably go chop that up for the podcast here but the live viewers know cold open open, but it's all good. Daigle, how we doing? The vision around, still working out all the kinks. It's all good. We are here nonetheless to talk about four important games, so an exciting week.

This is why they don't let us off and fly solo without a producer. Today we are doing that, and that's what happens. We get a little cold open and we don't play the music. We need that cadence to get into the show. We're going to continue again, live Wednesdays, discussing our favorite games on the board, taking your questions as well. So if you happen to be hanging out with us now on YouTube, first of all, subscribe so you don't miss the show. We appreciate that. We'll let you get access to all the other great content here on the 444 YouTube page. Smash the like button here on YouTube, on the audio podcast,

rate and review that audio podcast. That would help as well. And then jump in the chat. Let us know if you have any favorite looks here, how you think this is going to play out. Great weekend, great football, sides of totals. We'd love to be able to kind of work out that for you here at the end if you have any questions. I want to remind folks as well, two episodes of Move the Line each week, still doing Prop Drop, which is our prop-specific show on Friday. This is Game Previews. Connor, Pat Mayo, and myself on Fridays, 2 p.m. Eastern, here on the YouTube channel.

You can find it in the podcast feeds as well. Also on YouTube specifically, we have a 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel, which is unique content covering some of the other sports that we have here over at 444. And that also was a good reminder. Season's almost over, but $19 for a betting subscription at 444 from now through the end of February. So it takes you through the end of the Super Bowl. A little bit beyond that, because we're covering other sports, NBA, college hoops, MMA. We'll have a little bit of golf in there for you as well on top of that. So again, access to literally every tool on the site.

Daigle, TJ still grinding the DFS stuff there too, and the showdown slates and all the small slate stuff that we have going on here with the compressed four games. So that gets you access to literally everything. 444.com slash plans, $19 for the betting subscription. Great way to get into the discord, get all the picks and plays that we put out there. Like-minded community where you can kind of share thoughts around whatever it

is. If you're in any of the pick them games, underdog vivid that Connor continues to get live physical checks from, which is great price picks. We have unique channels in there for you as well and get all the plays that we have for you we had a good run in the wild card round two in the discord uh i was one of the few we talked about on the show how i didn't believe in the chargers offense despite everything everyone else was making them out to be and

justin herbert of course failed to get there at all in fantasy which is the purpose of my job which is why i talked about it. And then a lot of people in Discord also on that first round of the games stacked Brock Purdy with Elijah Mitchell, Debo Samuel, and Christian McCaffrey. Elijah Mitchell, of course, who got lucky there to score, receiving touchdown in only four routes. But it was a short slate. That's all that mattered.

So yeah, a really good day. Eight games. I'm sorry sorry eight teams four games two on saturday two on sunday um should be a good time i love this weekend and i think we're going to get started here uh at the very very top we have a rematch um it's actually a game that i think everyone out there is waiting for you have actually the only two super bowl uh winning coaches that are uh still alive here this is andy reed uh used to coach doug peterson he was replaced by doug peterson there's just a lot of continuity there and then you just have the two young guns the second year up and

comer uh and then you have the you know wiley veteran who continues to kind of do things of course i'm talking about this matchup here between Nick Bolton and Foye, Lua Khan at linebacker position between these two clubs. Cause these are two of the best in business, but actually we're talking about the quarterbacks here and eight and a half is basically the line across the board. We have a total of 53, 52 and a half again, FanDueluel typically off market just a little bit here. This is sitting in prime teaser zone.

We'll get to that because this Saturday teaser is going to be probably the most held ticket, the most square public ticket ever here where the Chiefs are at eight and a half. These two teams played back in week 12. Tony yards, like 498 total yards from the Chiefs here. They gave up a couple of turnovers that kept the Jags pretty close, enough for them to be within 10 points. And again, that's not going to cover here. Again, obviously a crazy comeback for the Jags last week,

which was impressive. Chiefs getting rested and healthy. Dago let you get started with Jags, Chiefs. It is funny when you think about the small sample sizes of how Dak Prescott who started that game over four and then thankfully was on the road otherwise the home team would have tried to boo him off the field after two CD lamb drops but then also Trevor Lawrence who started that game because the Chargers four for 16 for 30 yards and four interceptions in the first half.

And now both of those quarterbacks are here in the divisional round. I think what's most important, though, to remember is that the Chiefs are 2-7-1, covering the spread in their last 10 games. And those two covers occurred against Bryce Perkins and Jarrett Stidham. And remember, in the first matchup between these two teams, Jacksonville at the very least understood the assignment. They opened the game with a surprise onside kick and recovery. So getting the ball at their own 46. And then also the next possession, the Chiefs opening possession, they forced a fumble from

Isaiah Pacheco. That was still a young developing team mid-season though. So they got zero points on those two series events that should have genuinely changed and altered the ending of the game. But we at least also know is that Trevor Lawrence is a different player. And the first eight weeks of the season, the first half of the year, he went 18 to 41. So a 44% completion rate inside the red zone for nine touchdowns and three interceptions. But from week nine on, including the playoffs against the Chargers over the second half of the year has completed 62 of his passes inside the 20 for 14 touchdowns and zero picks including five of seven for three touchdowns and no interceptions inside the red zone against los angeles so we are seeing a quarterback who it's hard to it's funny to say i understand after

he throws four turnovers, but really as a better player over the second half of the year. And just given the fact that they know they have to be aggressive to beat the Chiefs, which has been team's bugaboo for years and years. Remember the first time the Bills played the Chiefs as well. They kicked so many field goals on their own side of the field, which ultimately ruined them. And that's why the last two years we've seen the Bills play the Chiefs.

They don't kick field goals anymore. They don't punt. They go for it because they understand how aggressive you have to be. Doug Peterson's already there, and he's there with a group of players who are now playing their absolute best in a whittled-down target tree that consists of just Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Ingram, which is not a bad thing. So overall, from the outside looking in,

I do actually like the Jags to cover. Although if you told me to pick a team outright, it's definitely still the Chiefs. You gotta remember, Doug Peterson knows that. And that's actually how this game started. They started with an onside kick, if you remember back in week 12. He knows that he has to minimize Chiefs possessions and he has to keep his team on the field.

Teams often do that in a conservative way, but I think you make a great point here. Connor, I'll kick it to you here. This technically, I mean, I'd love to get your thoughts. Does this count as Andy Reid off a bye? Cause it kind of is right. And we know historically that's made a pretty big difference here as well. Yeah. And going beyond that, the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes have had a first round bye three times so far. They're three and O in those games, beating the Texans 51 to 31.

They beat the Colts 31 to 13. And then we're beating the Browns 22 to 10 before Patrick Holmes actually got injured in the third quarter. And then the Browns made a comeback there and almost like, you know, technically almost one. I think the chiefs actually had to go for it on fourth down there with, I believe it was Chad Henney,

a quarterback. So we're still able to get the win there. I get Daigle's point because the Chiefs are generally overrated in the market. I guess my main concern here is like, I really, really don't see how the Jaguars are stopping the Chiefs for less than 30. So it's a matter of like, can Trevor Lawrence and the Jags keep it close enough to within a touchdown? So for me, it's, I think so. Like, I think we saw someone, another show drew the parallel between Trevor Lawrence and like Andrew Luck after a year or two. And I think that that's a pretty apt comparison in a lot of ways. Like what vividly comes to mind is that

game that he came back in the playoffs against the chiefs actually themselves was down like 28 points, came back and ended up winning the game. Uh, like he has that ability to really just, you know, turn the game on its head and be able to score. So I, I personally towards the chiefs, cause I'm just not sure how the Jaguars necessarily stopped them because of like, at this point they've, you know, worked in carriers, Tony to be another weapon. You know, Juju Smith Schuster is healthy now only played 38% of the snaps against the Jaguars last time for how much of a difference he makes. Travis Kelsey's good to go. Jarek McKinnon has become a much, much more bigger part of their receiving game as well. Like there's so many different outlets,

kind of like the 49ers. We'll get to them later, but like they just have so multiple that like a Jaguars defense, it's already 30th and past the DVO way. And like, I mean, I guess did relatively well against Justin Herbert, but didn't necessarily like,

weren't awesome. I just feel like in this spot here, like it's really tough for me to see the Chiefs not scoring like 30 plus points. A couple of seasonal matchups that just, and you kind of look at big picture and stuff that seems to be problematic. The Jags defense is not good as we know them playing better. And I think that that's fair feedback. They've been really bad in the first half all season, 29th and DVOA in the first half. Chiefs offense, unsurprisingly, first in the first half. Also Jacksonville really bad in the red zone, 31st in red zone D-D-V-O-A, which is not a great place to be as you head into Arrowhead. So also Jacksonville's 32nd in past D-D-V-O-A against

the tight end position, which does not bode well for something that we think Kansas City wants to do. And that's probably feature Travis Kelsey in this matchup. I think he actually underwhelming. I think six first seven, 81 yards in the first matchup when they played one big run, you know, run after the catch that kind of got him there in terms of, you know, hitting his prop and stuff like that. So that's going to be interesting. Christian Kirk had a big game in this matchup last time as well. I will say that they have made a recent change at slot corner for the Chiefs. Jerry Sneed is a terrific corner, but a little bit bigger, more of your prototypical size outside corner that someone can match up with a

perimeter receiver. And I think Christian Kirk was just too quick for him in the slot. And that's part of why I think some season-long metrics will tell you that the Chiefs have been cooked by slot receivers. Now they've moved Snead outside of even using him a little bit to shadow. And you had Trent McDuffie, the rookie from Washington in the slot. And I think you've seen a little bit there and that kind of bodes better for them matchup wise and maybe worse for Kirk in terms of how he performed last time in this matchup. So I think it's going to be a good one.

The eight and a half allows you to tease through the seven through the two or through the three down to two and a half. And that's, man, the books are going to be on the hook for a lot of chiefs minus two and a half here. I think this weekend. We mentioned Jags defense, but I still want to get in here

that the Chiefs are also second to last in red zone touchdown rate allowed. So if Trevor Lawrence is also playing significantly better over the second half of the year, inside the red zone in particular, and the Chiefs still can't stop anyone inside the red zone, I do expect a lot of points here. That's why I think the Jags keep up. Connor, you didn't sound as confident as laying the points as I did taking the points, but I am willing to put a skin in the game bet here for another bar tab if you want.

No, I'm good. I'd rather just take the over, like a team total over. Because I mean, I think I produced almost the counter argument there as well, because I do think the Chiefs score, but I don't have a ton of faith in the Chiefs defense and Trevor Lawrence is I mean he's the truth he's always been the truth you know so um I'm excited to see how he develops especially with Calvin Ridley in the coming years but he's been awesome at times uh I do want to lay out a couple prop situations here because now we're seeing that in his last four games against anyone but the Titans Travis Etienne is averaging 6.3 yards per touch on 79 touches in that span. Basically, he just keeps getting jammed the ball. He handled 100% every

single running back touch in that wildcard game. And the roller coaster of game scripts happened in that situation, and he never came off the field for Jermichael Hasty at all. So you're going to get every single touch, every single snap for Etienne in that game. And you're not going to get targets. Like the last time he got more than three targets was week seven, but he's so explosive that it doesn't even matter. So it's totally okay. So I do like some Etienne overs, but then also the last time the Jaguars allowed a touchdown

to any player running back tight end wide receiver from the boundary was actually this matchup in week 10 that's how long it's been but 46 percent of mahomes passing yards and two of his four touchdowns in that last game occurred from the slot and that area has now been whittled down to just two players since we don't think we're getting mccall hardman in this game it's basically just going to be a large heaping of judas muster, and that's the prop over to Chase here, but Kadarius Tony as well. Kadarius Tony, we saw in the last game, only eight routes. They're not going to expand his role. He will be involved for concerted touches, which is good for fantasy, but actual receiving yards, I'm still a little scared. But overall,

a Juju is going to get fed heavily here because the slot is where you target the Jaguars. So I am on the Jju overs this week. It's interesting because his prop came in really low because he hasn't really been producing that much. We're looking at like 51 yards. And so I think the upside there is massive. You can actually get like plus 200 on 70 plus yards. So like two to one on him to have like what I think to be very much in his

range of outcomes, like more towards the median there because of, like you said, the matchup. They're going to put their, you know, they're literally going to go gas the pedal until they have 50 points. So you don't have any worries

about them slowing down ever. Yeah. Juju, I think, was very popular last time they played. I remember both Kirk and Juju were very popular in this matchup. So I think the Juju look is not a bad one. I also like the,

so the interior offensive line for the Jags has been an issue. Chris Jones, two sacks last time they met. He leads all defensive tackles in pass rush pressure pressures on the season. I think he's going to be a problem for the Jags up front. So maybe even over, I think it's,

it's out there on DraftKings 0.75 sacks for Chris Jones. I think Chris Jones is, is in line to get a sack. He had two in the first matchup. He's just been playing really, really good football. So yeah, I mean, overall, I think that there's questions long-term as we move along in the playoffs, as the Chiefs advance into other matchups around the strength of their defense, I think it's good enough for them to contend here against the defense that I think that they're going to be able to, to kind of boat race to Connor's point where I think we're going to get, you know, 30 points or so.

What do you guys think about Clyde, any thoughts? I mean, is he going to even be an active or no? Well, remember before we even got injured, they weaned him out of this same backfield. So I can't imagine he's involved but you know how the chiefs players work we're seeing it with jared mckinnon now jared mckinnon has averaged a touchdown for every three receptions in his last six games so they of course could just get him involved for something crazy inside the 20 but like actual workload no he's not going to get

touched i mean rojo's seen a little bit of work in mop-up duty here and there. So, I mean, I think CEH can at least factor in a little bit, you know, if they need it instead of Rojo. Dude, just a little bit. It was two old games where they just basically said, you're not good enough and took him out of the offense entirely. And then he got injured on just like one touch in his game where he showed up. Yeah, it's the truth because he sucks. So, makes sense.

Well, I don't want to say that, but yeah, sure. Well well you don't want to be clipped and then blasted by ch publicly we don't have a producer today so i can get away with anything all right move on to the saturday night night cap here uh divisional matchup we had a bunch last week this is our lone divisional matchup though again we have multiple rematches. We have the Giants on the road in Philly again. Seven and a half is the number across the board. 48 and a half. 48 is the total. There's, again, Vandal, 48 and a half out there.

Philly needed the bye to get healthy. It was obviously kind of a rough December for them down the stretch, obviously, starting with Jalen Hurts. Lots of other injuries on the defensive side as well. Offensive line issues may be still a problem for them here as we wait for elaine johnson news definitively but the giants just kind of continue to get healthy actually like that's been something that hasn't been uh an issue for them where they've been a little bit of just it felt like smoke and mirrors at times just were really playing really good football this happens every year we get one of these teams that is just kind of trending at the right time.

And they actually did what I was hoping they would do last week, which was they backed off of the crazy blitz and were really smart and won with their front and were allowed to drop. And we made Justin Jefferson kind of have a nightmarish day in a big, big game. Dan Jones, not turning the over, running a ton, 17 attempts in that game against the Vikings. Just absolutely insane. Obviously more difficult sledding here against an Eagles defense,

which has got a lot more bite than the Vikings had at any point this season. I think obviously the concerns are how healthy is Jalen Hurts? Is he going to be the runner that he was early in the season to add that level of just a dynamic add to that offense? Carter Lugic started with Giants Eagles. Yeah, I think it's easy to make the case and you'll probably hear it where people are like, oh, well, you know, the Eagles only won by six against Davis Webb and like the Giants backups in a game that they needed to win. But personally, I think with how the Eagles have been trending, Lane Johnson is healthy now.

He's, I mean, you're healthier and going to play, which is a big deal for the offensive line. Miles Sanders actually wore a knee brace two weeks before and was, was like limping around, didn't play well at all in their, their last game against the giants either.

But now is that two weeks off, did not play with the knee brace against the giants, but just didn't play. I would say particularly all that. Well, I think that getting that running game going again is massive here. And I relate this game more to the time when they played the Giants and scored 50 points. I mean, I think that this is much more similar scenario here coming off of an extra week of rest against

the Giants team that I think they're, they're, you know, they're better, much better than we thought. They have some players who, you know, can make plays in the defense. Their scheme is great. You know, elite coaching, like 100%. Dable probably deserves to win coach of the year. But yeah, I know. Get out of here. He definitely deserves it. But still, still hold not hope.

But anyways, I really think that the Eagles are the side here. I get it. I understand that the Giants have played teams close. Dable's awesome. He's schemed well. But for me, just like with how you handicap, I mean, basically everything on the field here and every number, like for me, it points towards the Eagles.

There are teams, every wild card that show up and are super impressive. And then they play an actual contender the next round and you just forget that this team does not deserve to be here. And Brian Dable is unequivocally the head coach of the year. The Giants, what they're doing is super impressive,

although I still hate, and we'll talk about this throughout the off season, no need to discuss it now. I hate that they backed themselves into a corner to where they're basically looking at a multi-year deal for Daniel Jones. And really you just want one more year to play it out. I don't think you're ready for a four-year deal here,

but nonetheless, everyone is doing well, including Isaiah Hodgins, who wasn't even on the team until week five. Maybe beyond that, even after the Buffaloes' bye, since that's the last team he was on. But overall, I do think as long as Jalen Hurts and Lane Johnson are healthy, since that's what we're questioning here,

then the Eagles are the juggernaut that are just going to roll over the Giants. With Lane Johnson off the field this year due to injury or just resting, but with Lane Johnson off the field, the Eagles are averaging nearly a yard per attempt fewer, 8.3 to 7.4, and then nearly two more yards per drop back through the air, 7.4 to 5.7. Also a 5.2% touchdown rate with Laneson on the field compared to 2.2 with him off of it so massive differences lane johnson which is what we talked about in week 18 whenever

the eagles had to have a win just matters so much for both jaylen hurts running and through the air also what hurts last two games we've seen and remember, Nick Sirianni talked about this, that what their offense has become is basically if you see single high coverage or man coverage, there is no read. You throw to A.J. Brown. That's it. You give him a contested ball. You give him a 50-50 chance at a catch, and that's the play.

And that's why he has a 39% target share in his last two games against man coverage. And as we know, Wink Martin down the Giants run man coverage the league's highest rate. I think we're going to have a lot of opportunity here for some very explosive plays through the air. And since we're looking at the injury report and we see Jalen Hurts removed on Tuesday, we see Lane Johnson for rest purposes limited on Wednesday, I think everyone's at full strength. And if that's the case, I think we're looking at a two-score win

for the Eagles here at the very least. Love it. Love that conviction. Again, seven and a half, it allows you to tease through the seven through the three, and then you get them just to basically to win. You basically need the two one seeds to win in a teaser, and that's going to be, again, very, very, very popular ticket. That's hard to not pull the trigger on.

So I'm with you guys. I think that the Eagles are a significantly better team. I do think that the Giants have been obviously well coached. You guys both talked about it. It's, you cannot argue it. There's a few things that continue to be mind numbing to me, and I don't understand how they've been able to survive. And they are by far

defensively we know this has been kind of a warren sharp thing for years it's the early down success rate the giants have which again like great descriptive stat not uber predictive in terms of handicapping but like the giants are the worst first down defense in the league significantly by far both run and pass pass by actually significantly against the run even more. And the Eagles are the second best first down offense. It feels like a massive, massive mismatch, just getting ahead of the chains and allowing you to dictate what you want to do offensively. It's the, I think the opposite of what we saw last week with the giants were, they were able to kind of dictate what they want to do defensively to be able to collapse the pocket on Kirk Cousins and they were able to do so

in a massive massive way like again Kayvon Thibodeau is playing outstanding Dexter Lawrence is a machine uh he had eight pressures uh last week just not something you typically see from a defensive tackle again we know that they had you know offensive line injury issues in Minnesota and they were able to exploit that and take advantage but like they are getting healthy in the back end like Xavier McKinney is saying they're kind of figuring out the rotation in the back end with corners which they've been kind of just piecing together based on who's active all season it's been kind of a mess they are also hitting their stride in terms of being healthy I just think they're going to be overwhelmed by an Eagles team that benefited from the rest just as superior basically at every level.

And again, if you can't get off the field and you aren't able to put them in a spot where you're going to be able to blitz and give Jalen Hurts different looks, that's a problem. And I think the Eagles are probably the right side. And I'm surprised it hasn't moved a lot, to be honest, because I really haven't heard a lot of pro Giants talk this week, but we're still early in the week. Again, at seven and a half, they're probably pretty protected

for it to be a substantial move anyway. So yeah, I think the Eagles are the very popular side for a reason. I will also say that over the last month of the year, the Giants are the only team to allow over 19% of carries to go for 10 plus yards. On the season, the Giants are the only defense to allow over 17% of carries to go for 10 plus yards. They are one of the league's, if not the worst, rush defense, no matter which way you dice it, for both recency bias or long-term trends. And as we talked about with the Vikings, it didn't matter. no matter which way you dice it for both recency bias or long-term trends. And as we talked about the Vikings, it didn't matter.

They weren't going to run the ball anyways, and they weren't going to have success when they do it. So we never were worried about Dalvin Cook and the Vikings moving the ball on the ground. But the Eagles will go that route if they deem it necessary. And so it could be a very big game for Miles Sanders and Jalen Hurts here if you're looking at rushing props. Yeah, absolutely. The Pound brought it up in the chat. Miles Sanders versus New York Giants, week 14, 17 carries, 144 yards, two touchdowns. That's exactly kind of why I wanted to relate this game to that because I think this

is like a very similar, you know, like matchup and structure for Sanders to have success. And although I think the Eagles went big, I still question the overall ceiling output of this game in both teams. I wonder if the Giants, who, again, we saw a change of their game plan for the Vikings. I just wonder how they're going to view this one in particular, if they need to go more up-tempo to match points or take away possessions. Because Brian Dable, as we know, will do whatever it takes that is best for his team. Like against the Vikings last week, Daniel Jones, for instance, from the regular season, only averaged four design rush attempts per game

and only two in the team's first matchup against Philly. But then against the Vikings, he had a season-high 11 design runs for seven first downs. And I even question if that was part of the game plan. I think they went for it a couple times. You saw him with some early design carries, and they picked up first downs on those first two. And they were like, oh, this is what's going to work tonight.

And so they just took away from Saquon Barkley and ran Daniel Jones a season high amount of times instead. I just wonder what is Dable viewing here? Because it could be to slow it down, but it could be to speed it up. So it's kind of a subjective question I'm asking myself going into DFS and like over betting purposes. I think, well, another thing you have to consider is like Dable's smart enough to understand

that if you fall behind, like shortening the game isn't going to help. So like, you know, if they fall behind seven to 10, like, you know, they're just going to throw because I think they know that. So like, whereas some other teams like, you know, Atlanta or especially early on in the season, weren't going to throw, they were just going to keep trying to shorten the game and be like, oh, maybe we'll get lucky or get a stop or something like that. I just don't think that that's really feasible given their defense and the Eagles. So at least that's what I would guess if Dable, but maybe you're right. Maybe they do try and shorten the game, but you know, with, you know, Jordan Davis back,

like the Eagle defense has actually been pretty good. The run even has been solid. It was just that when he was missing those and before they signed, you know, some of the other the other guys to shore up the defensive line, they were brutal in the trenches for a little while, at least their run defense. But that seems like it's kind of been solved a little bit. It's also funny that only one team in the NFC East changed their quarterback this offseason, and that is the one team in the NFC East who's not in the final eight in the playoffs. It's true. They probably should have made the playoffs to begin with anyway. They just messed up some time.

Because they started the one quarterback. They changed two. I love it. Duncan, anytime he gets a chance to just dunk on Carson Wentz, we're not even talking about him. We're bringing him up and dunk on him. He'll enjoy his time with the Raiders next year. Yeah.

You won't need to listen to this. He's out on a hunting trip, I'm sure. So we're fine. The one thing, too, in the red zone, like, another thing that the Giants, they're the best red zone offense in the league. They've been all season. Best passing, great against the run.

And it's a great matchup because the Eagles have been really stout limiting passing games in the red zone. But they've been gashed on the ground. So like in terms of like touchdown props, or even if you're talking about DFS day, go like, I don't know. That seems like there might day ball is going to be the guy that's going

to know that this is where you attack Philly in the red zone. It's on the ground. It's been where teams have had success all season 31st in red zone rush D on the year. So I agree with the guys here. I think Philly at seven and a half is the side. We'll move on to the two Sunday games. I kind of think these are the two best games of the weekend.

I think they're going to be fantastic football games. Cincy in Buffalo, rematch of what we wanted to see a couple weeks ago. This one has moved a little bit. You have the Bengals catching five and a half. There's fives out there, 48, 40 and a half is the total. You can shop around. I talked about it last week, that matchup in the division against the Ravens defense that had been

trending against a team that Burrow has struggled against in his career with McDaniel at defensive coordinator was kind of, again, what happened? I referenced in the last week's show his success rate against other teams, non-Ravens teams, was about 50%, 36% against the Ravens. They gave him so much trouble, again, pre-snap, and it was a close game. And even though they didn't have the offensive upside that we would expect to have for the Ravens, if they would have, that would have been probably a different football game. And again, without one big kind of flukish play, it probably is anyway. These two teams, again,

they only played for a little bit, obviously, before the tragic accident with the Mar Hamlin. We probably got, if it was a boxing match, we got a round. But the Bengals came out and punched the Bills in the face in the first round of that. What would have been a 12 round fight and the Bills? We just haven't seen great football as of late. I know it's a team that we've been all on all season. They've just been a different defense in the secondary with a lot of issues.

Again, the DeMar Hamlin thing. Now, thank God he's healthy. We can talk about him from a football standpoint. They're going to miss him. He was Micah Hyde's replacement. They are now using Dean Marleau, who couldn't stay on the field for the Falcons this year defensively

and got a bunch of reps on last year's Lions defense. This is a problem for them in the secondary. And they're a different front without Von Miller as well. Obviously the big gaping hole, Dagle, that you get started with this one is the offensive line as well for the Bengals to continue to lose a starter every week. And I think that's why you've seen this line movement. And that's why I'm curious about which narrative we're going to paint. And I'm still on, I could jump to either side of the fence, honestly we do have burrow as you mentioned engineering that opening drive touchdown on monday night

against the bills and at that point they were only only missing lyle collins but in his last 11 quarters now without collins without right guard alex kappa without left tackle jonah williams he's averaged 5.7 yards per attempt, three touchdowns, and two picks. On that same notion, the Ravens are this team's bugaboo, just like the Bills are so glad to be done with the Dolphins, who now we know going into next year, as long as Mike McDaniel's coaching, the Dolphins will play the Bills to the whistle every single moment. The Braves have had the Bengals number, and they're the only defense that held Burrow to

fewer than seven yards per attempt in all three games. Burrow against the Ravens went one for eight for 3.3 yards per attempt on throws 20 yards downfield against the rest of the league, 19 to 46 for 14 and a half yards per attempt. At the time though is the offensive line such a big issue that the bills pass rush uh who finished top two in the league and rate of downs they send just four rushers like is that enough where four rushers will matter here and thus limit the bingles to underneath passing and then also could the use of two high safeties from the Ravens, who played two high safety on over half their defensive snaps, does that matter as well for how little and how lack of success Burrow had

in throwing deep against Baltimore? Because that's really what we're trying to question here. And if that's the case, remember, Buffalo has actually used two high safeties at the seventh highest rate in the league. And so I don't think it's going to be as high scoring of a game as a lot of people think. I think we're going to get a lot of underneath passes, hence why Joe Mixon has also had 18 targets in his last three games. And that's kind of where I'm at right now. I prefer to lay the points with the Bills just given Bengals

offensive line issues. But honestly, I can hear both sides of the spectrum. I understand both arguments. So curious to get Connor's take on it. Yeah, it's tough. I go back and forth. I think the line's adjusted for a lot of what you talked about there with the offensive line. And I, you know, if we go through there, I like to rely on PFF grades for like offensive line play specifically because they do a great job of, you know, parsing through things that things that maybe you know we don't fully understand in terms of you know scheme and play-to-play basis and going play-by-play I mean right now if we're looking at the projected Bengals offensive line without the guys that you mentioned um only one guy even has a pff grade uh the other the other

ones that are like ranked and all the other ones are at 50 or below and it's out of 100 scale uh outside of their Center uh care so he's he's like 18th out of a hundred scale, uh, outside of their center, uh, care. So he's, he's like 18th out of 40 centers this year. Um, and so obviously this is a massive issue, but then you go back to last year and their Superbowl run, their offensive line sucked then too. And so that's what you kind of think about. And you're like, well, Joe Burrow did it without an offensive line before. So how much do I really, how much stock do I really want to put into that? If we look at those guys, I mean, they were bad, but these guys technically project to be worse. One of the backups from last year is now starting a Carmen. So like,

it's one of those things where, okay, so this line could actually be worse than last year, given the current like situation bills right now, 13th and pressure out of the season, but do not have on Miller. I know he was a big impact player for them as well. So there's so many things to weigh into this equation of like how it's

going to turn out that for me, it's kind of just a stay away because what it surprised me to see them just like go shotgun and like quick pass every single play. Not at all. Like that totally makes sense. Um, but you know, if they don't do that, or if they try and for some reason, like, you know, maybe establish a running game or use a bunch of like play action and like longer plays, like developing plays, like, I mean, they might get eaten alive. So how much do I want to bet on Zach Taylor understanding that? So for me, it's just kind of a stay away, maybe a live bet opportunity, see how they come out because I think the matchup is there for the Bengals to win. Originally I was interested in that, but with their offensive

line issues, uh, I can't touch it. Yeah. It's understandable. The offensive line issues are, you know, that's going to be something that we'll probably get a good sense of right away is how is Buffalo attacking that. And I think the one big thing that's different, I keep going back to the Ravens thing is like, I think at this point, like you were just trying to like break and pick out the perfect quarterback. And if you were to like, try to grab attributes from quarterbacks around the league, you know, I think of where we're at now, unfortunately with the end of Tom Brady's career, you know, I think of where we're at now, unfortunately, with the end of Tom Brady's career. You know, he wouldn't maybe be the first guy that you would think of in terms of pre-snap reads and having things diagnosed.

That combination of understanding what you're looking at and being able to diagnose it quickly and then be accurate where you're passing. I kind of feel like Burrow is that guy now. And the Ravens, for whatever reason, they do a really good job at disguising things pre-snap. The Bills don't. They aren't very multiple. They're pretty much right in front of you. They don't change things a whole lot. They don't blitz a lot. It's very much pre-snap going to be just very, very different. It's like hitting in the fast batting cages and all of a sudden burrow is going to just be in medium and that is a huge advantage for him pre-snap so um i'm also just worried as i kind of teed it up at the top about josh allen who i think is gosh i mean we know the ceiling of josh allen we saw last year in kansas city in the playoffs we just we haven't

seen it right like i feel like we're getting to the point where they've been fine turnovers are a problem turnovers are a problem three picks last week two fumbles were covered both by the team i felt like last week it was more hero ball like he wanted he took deep shots which is great we wanted to be aggressive but sometimes like you need to take what the defense is giving you underneath and that's not a miami secondary that has been giving anyone problems this season you mentioned the games have been close, but it's not like Miami has had their number. The game in Miami in week three, they're like Buffalo never had the ball. They ran like 43 plays or something crazy. The Dolphins had 16 first downs on 14 drives last week.

There's no excuse to leave that team, let them hang around and nearly win a game. No excuse. And to your point, Miami actually kind of almost dared Josh Allen. They were just like literally blitzing, playing single high, and were like, throw it to Gabe Davis. Like if Gabe Davis beats us, fine. That's what they were saying.

And I mean, sometimes he did, but too often he didn't. And that kind of left them exposed. And I think Josh Allen, not necessarily got greedy, but just kept wanting to take those chunk gains. And so I don't really think that Cincinnati will do

the same thing. Um, so maybe it'll, I think it'll be a lot different situation here, but you know, I think that was very Miami specific and part of, you know, hats off to them for game planning that, but I don't know. I do agree though, that Josh Allen has not been necessarily the same Josh Allen and it is a lot of turnover base. He makes just a couple more questionable decisions per game than we've seen in years past. I like, I like the bangles here give me uh give me the money line uh two to one i think on fan duel it's like plus 205 i just i think they're alive um so i like i just feel like give me the two to one instead of even messing with the points in the spot so i like the bangles the line movement is interesting so opened up at three and a half

uh bills minus three and a, and has now moved to five and a half, which is essentially in Vegas, like a dead number. You know, like it's basically them saying like, we don't want to make the six. We don't want to make this like four. We're just going to kind of stick it in between. And so I think it kind of echoes the sentiment that we've been talking about here where like, you know, I think there's a lot of variables, but I certainly don't blame you for liking the Bengals.

But I mean, you're essentially just betting on Joe Burrow, which I mean, all being said, I'm 100% of that. Yeah. Yeah, I am. I think he, I just trust him more in this game and a big spot. Again, I like the Bills, like the Bills all season. I just feel like the injury issues in the back end for the Bills are going to start to come home to roost a little bit. And this is a team that can take advantage of it.

Skyler Thompson wasn't going to exploit Dean Marleau. You know, Dane Jackson got dinged up a little bit. Like there's some secondary issues there, too. And again, now that they're a bottom half pass rush in terms of pressure rates since Von Miller's been out, that helps alleviate again. Like it's not a weakness for the Bills per se, knowing again that is the weakness of the Bengals. I just think Burrow is going to be able to diagnose some stuff pre-snap to be able to know where he wants to go with the football

and be able to get it out before that becomes a problem for him. He's going to get sacked. He's going to take some hits for sure, but I think he's going to be able to make some plays. And I like what the Bengals defense can do as well. They're healthy with Hubbard. They're healthy with Hendrickson. They're going to be able to get pressure themselves.

A sneaky prop also, if you believe Burrow just gets rid of the ball quickly, is Samaj Pirine reception overs. Because he did, although getting out touched 14-2 by Joe Mixon, he quietly ran 22 routes to Mixon's 10 so he is the receiving back and so if you think Burrow just dumps it off quickly I expect P runs touches and catches in particular to go way up this game I like that that's a good shout um you know I Buffalo has been a team that's been pretty good at defending running backs generally but I mean I don't know how much that matters if he's going to see I mean his prop is going to be

like one reception one and a half or seven. So it doesn't even really matter technically on how good they are. It's going to be the Donald Parham special I placed in discord on Friday night late, where it's like, this is too low. Just bet this. My favorite is that, uh, you know, people reply with emojis and they all put the eggplant emoji on there. And I was just like, Oh, that's, that's perfect. There are, there are certain players that everyone get excited about. For some reason, although Donald Parham doesn't do anything in his career, people love betting Donald Parham overs.

Yeah, I gave that out on the – I gave a shout-out and gave that out on the prop show last week as a prop that you liked for us. Because I think Mayo was talking about something and the Chargers passing him or something. So, yeah, I gave you a shout out and it hit early. So, nice call. All right.

The weekend nightcap on Sunday. Cowboys, Niners. This is three and a half at most spots. Caesars still hanging at four. We're at 46 across the board for the total. FanDuel per usual. Off market, 45 and a half. Thank you, FanDuel.

Great, impressive win. Got Dak for what we saw in Week 18. For Dak to be really scuffling against Washington in that game, to come out and play the efficient football game that he did was impressive to see. Obviously, the defense got into a predictive game script that allowed them to take advantage of, like I talked about on the show last week, a Bucs team that looked the same all year except one game against Carolina. And everyone got really excited about it.

And I understand there was some continuity from the Super Bowl team. It is Tom Brady. I am as victim as anyone to be like, hey, I'm going to trust Tom in the playoffs. And it just, it wasn't there. It was nothing but four yards to Chris Godwin and hope that he could turn around before he got tackled. And it was just an absolute disaster. I don't blame a 45-year-old quarterback for not wanting to stand in there and take a hit anymore. He does not want to get hit. And it was very evident that he wanted to get rid of that football.

He was just spiking balls at people's feet instead of getting hit there. So it's been a great run, Tom. Maybe we'll see you again next year. I think we probably will. I'll be interested to see what happens with that. But this again is, it might be similar, maybe to a lesser degree than what Dago was talking about earlier in reference to the Giants. We see these teams that take advantage of a lesser wildcard team, get some momentum, change the narrative around the team,

and everyone gets really pumped up. I think that's what's happening with the Cowboys. I will let you guys go first here. Dago, I'll let you get started with the Cowboys Niners. It's an interesting situation because I already mentioned earlier in the show how Dak started open four, so you take that away. He actually went 25-29 for 305 yards and four touchdowns in the game after the opening drive. The Cowboys also only totaled two penalties on either side of the ball

throughout the game. So they legitimately played the perfect game against the Bucs. At the same time, everyone cites the Cowboys pass rush now, Michael Parsons, of course, like his nine pressures, although it doesn't show up in the sacks, is the way you look at pressures. His nine pressures were the second most of any player throughout the year. And he was actually the person that set that record this year

with 11 total pressures. So he broke his own record in that game. But at the same time, Tom Brady, yes, averaged 2.4 seconds from snap to throw against Dallas because he did not want to get hit because he understood he needed to get clean. But PFF actually tracks these numbers. And on throws where Brett Purdy got rid of the ball

in less than two and a half seconds this year uh he actually average which he did so on 51% of his dropbacks the seventh highest rate in the league he actually completed 73% of his passes for eight yards per attempt the third most yards per attempt on those throws since week 13 since he became starter so getting rid of the ball quickly also isn't something Brett Purdy is afraid or not accustomed to doing. He's already been here before. And so I actually do not worry about the Cowboys' pass rush in this spot. Yes, we are definitely waiting for the touchdown rate to regress.

Since his 8% touchdown rate now, since he became the starter, for reference, Patrick Mahomes, since he became the starter for reference, Patrick Mahomes, the MVP of the league is carrying a 6.3% touchdown rate into the divisional round. Brock party cannot do this forever, but at the same time, I agree. I don't think this is the game where he gets stopped,

especially with this offense clicking on all cylinders. So yes, I do like laying the points with the 49ers and think the 49ers defense is what really comes into play here above all cylinders. So yes, I do like laying the points with the 49ers and think the 49ers defense is what really comes into play here above all else. It's hilarious to see the recency bias, like seesaw here with how coming into last week, everyone's like, oh man, the Cowboys, you know, worried about what we saw against Washington. You know, the Bucks looked awesome in their last game. Now the, you know, the Cowboys gotten absolutely annihilate the Bucs. And now in this week, everyone's like, love the Cowboys, you know, my plus four lock, you know, absolutely love it. And I've actually

seen a lot of models love the Cowboys because my biggest issue with the Cowboys is that I think their defense is a little bit overrated. So in this, like they've played against like four good offenses all year. They let up 34 to the Gardner Minshew Eagles, 40 to Lawrence and the Jags, 31 to the Packers, 26 of the Eagles with Hertz. I mean, week two, they held the Bengals to 17 points, but that's like the only legitimate game that they played against a good offense here. And now you have a Niners team that, like you said, Bird, Purdy has handled pressure extremely well, five touchdowns, one interception, average over seven yards per attempt against pressure this year. And so the Niners are just so multiple. I mean, literally they started off the first drive. Christian McCaffrey would, would like switch with Debo Samuel, like every other

play he would line up in the backfield and switch with Debo mid play Debo will come in the backfield. How are you going to guard this guy's like every play? I have no idea. Like it's to me, it's just unbelievable the things that they can do. And this is just a Cowboys defense that I don't think is ready for that kind of, and level of sophistication from the, from the Niners. So I think they can beat them on the ground. Like they're a little bit more physical up front than they are. I think they can beat them through the air with like, you know, their scheming and everything for me, it's just, I think the Niners have a massive edge offensively and defensively. I have, you know, some questions about the 49ers, but I still think they have an edge there.

So I like the Niners here. I laid a bunch of three. I got to FanDuel three and I texted Noonan. I was like, this is crazy. I was like, I'm laying the Niners here. I will add to that because last week, the entire team for the 49ers combined for two catches for 15 yards from the slot.

Basically all of their production came from the boundary, and that was against a Seahawks defense who had allowed the fewest yards per target from the boundary in the league this year. And now it's the Dallas defense who, over the second half of the season, has allowed three more touchdowns than the next closest team from week 10 on from the boundary in particular. So I'm expecting a big day for Ayuk. I'm expecting a big day for McCaffrey, who, as we know, only gets pulled off the field if it's a non-competitive game. Deebo Samuel now, he has four starts with Brock Purdy.

This is what I was harping on in our FFPC stream with Joe Pano making his one annual appearance last week. Deebo Samuel now, in his four games, had a team-high target share in Week 13, tied for the team-high target share in Week 14. His first game back had a 15% target share in Week 18. And then last week, of course, 30% target share team-high. Like, Brent Birdie also has, I would argue,

an even better rapport with Debo than George Kittle. And so I expect the receivers to have some very big days here against Dallas' defense. I just feel like the 49ers are an inevitable machine right now. They're robots. We haven't really seen it all together, and we kind of got it last week with Debo back. And I just don't know how you game plan for that.

Again, that game against Tampa was amazing. You mentioned they played a perfect game. Tampa Bay has been the league's worst rushing offense all season they got scripted out of it so they really couldn't even try to do it that's not happening here and to have them try to defend this run game is a very very very different beast Connor mentioned a couple things that I want to touch on too with Brock Purdy a quarterback and again this is Shanahan like I don't want to knock Brock Purdy and say that he's not done terrific but like we know this we know this they always lead the league in yak completion percentage over expectation there's just a bunch of like like things that are just schematically designed for Shanahan who sometimes yeah we know gets tight

in playoff games late it hasn't been his bugaboo he'll have to overcome that here but he's going to get a chance because his team is so damn loaded. And with Brock Purdy quarterback, their first in-pass offensive DVOA. Five of those games were out Debo Samuel. Debo comes back last week and just dominates. Again, Connor mentioned you could put him in the backfield, throw it in, hand it to him. It's very, very difficult. You're going to find mismatches because you can't, you can't like account for everyone. You're going to find a bunch of spots where you're going to get one-on-one

coverage. And I think they're going to be able to take advantage of that. Now at the same timeframe over the last seven games, that Dallas pass defense is 23rd in DVOA. They haven't played anybody. They have not played anyone of any value during that timeframe. Indy, dead last. Houston, 30th. Tennessee, 28th. Washington at 18th. Philly, middle of the pack. Jacksonville was the best offense that they played in that time. And they

were one of the bottom eight in DVOA pass defense. And I know that they looked really good. They did something though in the game before I before kicking back to Daigle that I think now is on film, and it worked. And kudos to Dan Quinn. He has been an awesome defensive coordinator multiple times in his career. But they made a change at slot corner, and they went with a bunch of guys, put Deron Bland for the first time in his life on the outside.

And I think that was something that the Buccaneers weren't really ready for. I think they're going to find that Deron Bland has not been good all season. I think they're going to find matchups that the Niners like to take advantage here now that that's on film and they can expect it. So I just, I liked it. I love three and a half. I took four.

I'm fine with whatever. I think this is a seven point game, at least in the Niners. I think that they, Dallas is good. They'll score. They'll move the ball. It just won't look anything like last week. So give me the Niners.

I'm comfortable laying the points, no matter what it is. Much like how my therapist emphasizes to express gratitude in times you are down, because it reminds you about what is good in life. The more people try to throw things at Brock Purdy and make excuses for it, the faster he's going to go away from your life and you're not going to know it's hit you. I listen to so many betting shows from very smart people I respect,

and they're always making up excuses for Brock Purdy. Oh, this is first career road game last time he played Seattle. Oh, they were in the rain. Oh, this is first career playoff start. It doesn't matter. Mic, they were in the rain. Oh, this is first career playoff start. It doesn't matter. Micah Parsons does not matter. You have to appreciate what is happening here. And we haven't seen it before.

We haven't seen Mr. Relevant be the best quarterback, arguably on his own roster. So it makes sense why people just keep saying that it's not going to last. This is going to last. Brock Purdy is very, very good and adds a different element than Jimmy Garoppolo could ever even dream of bringing especially with his legs and how mobile he is

and how well he evades pressure so no like I don't think it ends here at all like the fairy tale keeps going and the the birds are already chirping I mean I know Dagle I don't know if you've heard but I mean like Brock Purdy's gonna be the starting quarterback next year for the Niners. I mean, that's like, like Kyle Shanahan loves him. I mean, that's like, I'm very confident that happens. And that's what has been, you know, that's what I've heard from multiple different people. He has shown more than Trey Lance has shown us in a very small sample. That's all I know right now. The depth of target was very interesting last week too. Steven Ruiz had a great piece on the ringer looking at like, you know,

yak and depth of target combined. And just like you look at the chart and it's just rock party is off the charts in terms of where he is. So it's not just like the short yardage, Jimmy G type yak. That's around the line of scrimmage. That's relied on Kittle, Debo, Ayuk to extend plays with their legs. We're getting the yak from these guys, but we're also getting it from like a deep ADOT, which is atypical. He was high stepping. He was high

stepping at one point. The kid's got confidence now too. He deserves it. You know, he should be feeling himself a little bit so i like him i want to see a little wild at iowa state he was just like all like a little gunslinger you know yeah like the college profile the pre-season games they don't trust me they don't make sense at all i i'm trying to make sense of them and it is just genuinely best like an inside joke to just never look back at the history of it and keep on going with your friends because it brought Purdy does not make sense, but he is awesome. Yeah. I just,

I feel like the Jax agrees. I feel like Eagles and Niners is inevitable. I want to see it. And hopefully we do look ahead. We can just talk about that briefly. Eagles. There are the Niners would go to the Eagles. What's the spread.

Dagle. Any thoughts minus one and a half. to the Eagles. What's the spread? Daigle, any thoughts? Minus one and a half. Yeah, I was going to say pick, but yeah, I think minus one and a half. If it got to three for the Eagles, I'd be really surprised. But I mean, just because they're at home, I think minus one and a half is about fine. I was going to guess one and a half as well.

I think it does matter a little bit in how these games get decided this week, just in terms of, you know, public perception and how definitive any of those victories are, right? Like, are they, you know, last minute wins for either of the teams? I think that that can impact it a little bit too. So yeah, I would love to just want to see that football game. I think it'd be a great, great game. Also quickly for prop purposes,

like Dallas has matchup last week, when we talked about CD lamb against the bucks, the slot is where the 49ers have been exploited the most this year. Fourth, most receiving yards. Receiving overs as well. We caught about, I don't know, 10% of that. So we got CD lamb receiving overs. Niners have been exploited for the fourth most receiving yards per game

and third most touchdowns this year from the middle of the field. So I like CD lamb receiving overs as well. Okay. Awesome. All right. So if it's a chiefs and bills in Atlanta, what's the line Connor? Probably chiefs minus one and a half chiefs minus two and a half.

I think, I mean, I would, I think there's still the better team and give them what we've seen for Buffalo. uh probably chiefs minus one and a half chiefs minus two and a half i think i mean i would i think there's still the better team and given what we've seen for buffalo but um i mean i i think you bet chiefs nine or super bowl that's what i think it is right now and we didn't see it on wild card weekend but remember the overtime rules now because of the chiefs bills game is every team gets a possession no matter what so actually softer and more favorable to overs moving forward that's a good call yeah yeah i do i agree i think it's uh i think it's chiefs niners i feel good about that still um i have a chiefs 30 to 1 chiefs over niners ticket yeah so it's not just a matchup it's uh chiefs and winning so which i don't necessarily

love as much anymore, but we'll see. I mean, you can hedge out when you get there. I mean, if, if it gets there, which I think we all do, like you can easily just hedge out. So. Correct. Yeah. What about if it's the Bengals chiefs that would be in Kansas city? What are your thoughts, Connor? Probably chiefs. I would have to be above three. It'd probably be like four, I'd guess maybe. Cause I mean, if, if the bill, if the Bengals beat the bills, like they're going to carry a little bit of respect there i would i'd expect

a pretty similar line to what we're seeing now so like but you know four to six four to five and a half is what i'd guess either way those are two really really really good football games uh on docket next week so all right gentlemen good stuff as always uh appreciate everyone hanging out with us on the chat and uh again reminder that we have a prop drop show on friday 2 p.m eastern you can find lots of written content from us on the site still to come prop articles from us dagle still grinding uh articles out there dfs mvp show still to come um anything else you guys want to give the listeners before we go nothing Nothing in particular outside of more prop bets in the discord, you know,

come and hang out, come chill. We'll be making money all the way through the end of the season. If you, if you, yes, take advantage of the $19 and get in the discord. Admittedly,

the betting discord is more active. TG and I are there until kickoff and then I'll help you out some during lock, is more active. TG and I are there until kickoff and then I'll help you out some during lock. But I don't even like texting people during games because I don't like hindsight and everyone like sweats and frets and yells in the moment. I'm not like that at all.

I just like, you've already done the process. Why agonize over yourself for results? So I don't even like talking during the games. I won't be in game discord in games but before i'm always there yeah that's fair i mean i i'm in there but people are super negative the moment a bat loses you'll get some some you know motherfucker in there giving you a red x or like you know giving you like a garbage emoji on your bed you're like don't be that guy that guy's the order that guy is That's the worst guy. I just don't hang out.

Trust the process. I don't care about the results. Move on. Analyze them. Move on. Connor and I do like to hang out in there. I love our community. I think that that's part of why we're successful.

I think people like coming back to us because the accessibility is something that isn't readily available across the market. I think it's something that we do pretty well. But like hang out in the chat, talk with us. Don't be the ghost that doesn't interact ever and then just grades everyone's props as soon as they hit. Only the losses. Never get the green check or a money bag on the win.

You just hammer like the red X in the circle. Like that guy's the worst. Don't be that person. Don't worry that Richie James had two drops and that prop would have hit if he didn't drop the ball. Don't give me a red X. I was tilting. I was tilting.

Good stuff as always, gentlemen. So again, props on Friday, 2 p.m. Eastern. DFS MVP on Friday as well. So for Dago and Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Tackle props, baby. tackle props baby