Move The Line - FREE NFL Picks for Week 14 | EXPERT Bets & Predictions

Episode Date: December 8, 2022

Free NFL Picks for Week 14! Betting experts Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan & John Daigle share their top NFL bets for Week 14 of the 2022 NFL season for FREE! Join them as they divulge the best odds and lines so you can get the best number at your favorite sportsbook! Timestamps:0:00 Intro4:00 MIA-LAC BETS9:19 PHI-NYG BETS16:57 CLV-CIN BETS21:13 TB-SF BETS28:55 NYJ-BUF BETS35:03 MIN-DET BETS43:05 Final Betting Thoughts49:40 OutroWant a FREE 4for4 Betting Subscription? Deposit $10 into a new BetMGM account using promo code 4FOR4 👉🏼 https://4for4.com/go/BetMGMSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow John on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/notJDaigleVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TbYo4X4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea

Hello and welcome to Move the Line, I'm Brian Noonan, joined here as always by both of my friends who are, I don't want to call it their flu game per se. They are both a little bit under the weather. We actually hung out and watched football together this weekend. Somehow I seem to have come out unscathed. I don't want to go too early here, but I'm feeling all right. But my friends are struggling. We're going to see what we can get out of this today.

Connor Allen, how are we doing? Good, yeah. I mean, it felt like my flu game on Sunday because we were firing on bets. I think, what did I finish? Eight and two on the week. good yeah i mean it felt like my flu game on sunday because we were firing on bets i think uh what did i finish eight and two on the week you finished like 13 and four or something like that just absolutely crushed it uh i mean one of the best sundays of the week i told you that i'm gonna have to come back every week just because i'm very superstitious about where i watch games and so great vibes it was a lot of fun and cash bets doesn't get much better than that

my son was not super excited to see you guys. I'm telling you, it'll get better every time. Diggle, how we feeling? Doing well. Ready to get week 14 on the road. Five more weeks left now. Four? I can't even count right now.

So yeah, excited to get it on. Playoffs, a little lighter sledding for us in playoff season. Especially for JD with the workload. You don't have to worry about waiver columns and all that stuff gets a little bit easier. Easier to break down the DFS slate when you only have six games, four games, things like that.

I'll remind folks moving forward, live here every Wednesday night, 6.30 Central, 7.30 Eastern time, discussing our favorite games on the board. And if you're happy to be hanging out with us on YouTube, taking your questions as well. So subscribe so you don't miss a show and jump in the chat. Let us know what your favorite Week 14 look is, side or total.

If you're looking to discuss props, we do that on Fridays. Reminder as well, the second episode of Move the Line each week, Friday, 2 p.m. Eastern, with Pat Mayo, Connor, and myself talking props and then taking your questions there too. Again, find that all on our 444 YouTube page, along with any podcast feed that you like to listen to. Also want to let you know about our other YouTube channel as well, 444Bets, where we have some original content on that page as well.

Again, content might slowly be shifting there down the line, but subscribe to 444-BETS on YouTube as well. That way you can get all that stuff, get our NBA team over there, giving you lots of great content, college hoops, lots of stuff's going to be starting to flow over there too. And a reminder too, we are more than halfway through the season. The pricing on our site is reflecting that. We want to let you know that is a massive discount right now to scoop up a betting subscription

at 444. You go to 444.com slash plans. You can enter the promo code. It's already discounted on there. You can enter the promo code next level for an additional 25% off. Again, that's going to run through the end of February and it's going to get you all the sports that we do. So that will get you access to everything on 444.com. In addition to the football stuff that we do,

you're going to get NBA, MMA, college basketball. We're still capping soccer in there, right? We're still tying games and doing stuff like that over there, Connor. America's not evolved yet, but it's still happening. So again, I think the subscriber Discord is really the gem. That's where all of our bets are pushed through. That's where we're going to get one-on-one access at times with Daigle or TJ on the DFS side.

Lots of great stuff going on there. If you're in any of the Pick'em Games, PrizePix, Underdog, Vivid, which Connor continues to print money, we have specific channels there as well. And again like pushing all the the bets through there on the discord so massive discount there promo code next level 25 off all right thursday's crap we're gonna skip it we're gonna jump right into the good stuff on the weekend and we will start in la with miami against the chargers here let me take a look here bring up what our lines are.

I've had a little bit of movement. This has been different in some spots. So you've got to shop right now. There are three and a halves out there on Miami's side, and there are two and a halves. So, like, again, that's a big – again, it's only a point, but there's a pretty big discrepancy out on Caesars. Everywhere else is three.

52, 52 and a half is the total. Got both clubs looking to get back on track after a tough Week 13 loss. This season is kind of like a lot of the Chargers seasons of the past. Falling short of preseason expectations. Struggled to stay healthy, especially at key positions. On the other side, Miami got off to a great start. Great opening drive against the 49ers. Could not sustain any drives.

Tua struggled all day. Niners did a great job rushing the passer. Pressing Tyreek and Wallop. The line of scrimmage made it a little bit harder for them. Unfortunately, the Chargers don't have those dudes to execute that 49ers game plan. Theoretically, it sounds great to be able to run it back, JD, but give me your thoughts on these two quarterbacks that are also always linked because of where they went in drafts. And it's just tough because we're waiting for injuries to sift out right now.

You mentioned the Dolphins on their first drive, but it was one play, 75 yards, and then that game was frustratingly going over only because Tua fumbled. Tua played a terrible game but was under duress the entire time. On Dolphins' last series, 49ersers recovered that fumble, and it goes over. Just ridiculous. Anyways, though, yeah, we know the Dolphins are also going to send the house on Justin Herbert. We're waiting on word on his offensive line.

We are waiting on word on Mike Williams, who matters a lot, because even last week when everyone discussed the Chargers attacking the Raiders' defense, It was practically a spot. I even got off of him in DFS and told everyone to fade him in our Discord chat. I think that's why also the Raiders or the Chargers team total had plummeted over a field goal by the time kickoff happened Sunday was because of their offensive line and just knowing they can't move the ball even against the Raiders pass rush without Corey Linsley, at least.

So just a lot of a lot I'm waiting on, honestly, here for this game. Not really a lean right now on it. Yeah. Great point. The offensive line issues were obviously massive. Mike Williams, obviously impactful here too. Connor, where are you at with this one? Yeah. I mean, my biggest push was towards the over. Like I really wanted that the over at 51 and a half here, but to Daigle's point, and we have Lindsley who's still in protocol. Pipkins did not practice as well. I mean, I think that, you know, all things considered if those guys play, and like you said, getting Mike Williams back should have a ton of success through the air against the dolphins, top 10 and defending the run, but bottom 10 and defending the pass and the chargers, uh, defensively are kind of the opposite bottom three,

defending the run kind of middling pass defense. But I think kind of having that, of having that you know uh you know versatility and like possibility of running the ball a little bit more which miami did not have uh last week it's the niners and be able to like utilize that a little bit more i think it's pretty massive for them so kind of being able to like jam it on their throats and go through the air like i think it would be a great great bounce back spot for them uh and so if we get like all those guys healthy like i'll definitely be smashing the over 51 and a half as of now though i think that everything's about right i'm i was a little surprised to see three and a half point favorites for the dolphins i know that like the the charters offensive injuries are big but i mean your road three and a half point favorites that's saying a lot i kind of thought

they're like two and a half or three years about right yeah two and a half currently on caesars and take what do you make of that right miami should be able to do whatever they want offensively here they could skew run heavy if they decided to. And we saw a little bit of a, I don't know if you want to call it a changing in the guard, but we saw a lot more most of last week than maybe we thought. Jeff Wilson, definitely in the mix still. But again, Chargers have really struggled to stop the run all season long. What do you take from that mix last week? And again, we're just waiting on Teron Armstead. I don't want to have any confidence in Miami if we don't get Teron Armstead here.

But at least we know the Chargers pass rush is not as significant as the 49ers literally league high, the best pass rush, the best defense in the entire league. So it is a different matchup for sure. Yeah, I would lean the Dolphins. But again, I just worry about for an over I worry about the Chargers carrying their weight and maybe they don't have to but it just seems like every week we keep making the Chargers to be what they aren't uh even you know this season now Justin Herbert's 35th in depth to target and he's dealt with a lot of injuries so maybe that change if Williams comes back to play alongside Keenan Allen but, I'm just kind of waiting for this one to play out.

And to your point, I think Jeff Wilson may have still been injured. The fact was, either way, they couldn't get the run game going. Like, yes, Mostert out-touched Wilson 7-1. But even then, it wasn't significant in anyone's direction. Like, no one was impactful there. So I don't know. I just chalked it up to Wilson still being a little bit injured from his calf injury suffered against the Texans. Yeah. I mean, obviously a softer landing spot here to

come in and be able to get something going on the ground. If there was a clear emergence for one of these guys really differentiating, maybe there's something to that. I mean, you know, we thought maybe it was a little cramps, maybe it was cramping calf, but yeah, I'm not sure what you're laughing, Connor, you have a take there? No, we just got a response from one of our fellow colleagues in our group chat. Sorry, keep going. Something else. No take there.

All right, we'll keep moving to the next one. We have NFC East Club here, our battle with the Eagles on the road in New York against the Giants. Basically, sevens across the board. Fandles got a juiced six and a half. If you're looking to get down on that, we have 44 and a half total in this one. I think the last week tie against the commanders, it's like a soccer thing, right? It's like when the U.S. tied England, everyone celebrated it as a win.

So we get super excited about that. I think with the way the playoff picture is going to come down to whoever wins that next week matchup between the commanders and the giants, like that tie could be very, very meaningful. So interesting to see here. Yeah. Just the giants though. I mean, we've talked about it at length, considering what they have going on in terms of both sides of the ball, the injuries,

this is one of the worst pass offenses in the league in terms of just skill sets. Brian Dayball and Mike Kafka deserve a ton of credit for how they continue to keep his team afloat despite all the injuries here and really limited pass catching core. They're going to have their work cut out for them against the Eagles. I mean, we've been trying to fade, you know, whether it's receivers or quarterbacks that are going against the Eagles all season long. One of the best pass defensive units in the league. You can get at them on the grounds.

They get some reinforcements here. Did a great job slowing down Derrick Henry last week. And then when you go to the other side of the ball, the mismatches I think are even more vast. Connor, I'll let you get started with this one. Yeah, I like the Eagles here. I think that, you know, Jordan Davis returned last week, but only played six snaps.

I think he gets worked back in slowly. But even when he's playing his most, he's still in like a 30 to 40 kind of guy uh and i just think there's another tough spot for the giants who sputtered with the banged up offensive line you know uh saquon barkley continues to be cooked uh shout out to daigle there for that one uh you know he mentioned that a couple weeks ago and that continues to be true you know no receiving weapons now matching with the philly team that kind of i don don't know if it was proved people wrong, but I think that they went back to their basics for a few weeks with whether it was like running the ball a bunch and then decided to flip back to the quick passing game and passing game in general, that's a Titan smartly. So to

avoid their, you know, vicious run defense and then crushed it. And so I think like being that multiple is really important for a Philly team. that's looking to make a deep run here. So, you know, I think that like in this spot here, I know laying seven points on the road as a divisional and a divisional game is not necessarily something that I guess, you know, trends wise is advised. But I think in this spot, I think the matchups here, I think Philly just has an advantage like everywhere. I mean, like a significant advantage. Also, it's their first game to. Like they're in the second game. I'm a little bit more like weary of stuff like that because I think that there's some, you know,

like people, they know each other a little bit more. So I feel like games can be tighter, but not in this scenario. It just is a great matchup, as you said, for the Eagles, because we know weak Martindale is not going to stop blitzing. They're going to send the house at Jalen Hurts. And this year, Jalen Hurts has been blitzed on 33% of his dropbacks. He has seven touchdowns to just one interception.

And that time, and more importantly, the ball just goes to A.J. Brown because the Giants leave their cornerbacks on an island playing a league-high rate of cover one when they blitz. And A.J. Brown against Man Covers this year, 17.5 yards per catch, the sixth most yards per outrun in the league. So it just seems like a dominant spot for the Eagles passing game yet again. And as Connor mentioned, yes, Saquon Barkley had the little 10 yard touchdown run inside the red zone, but still just 3.6 yards per touch, still 3.6 yards per touch in his last

five games. The juice is gone. So I'm not scared of anyone in the Giants. Or anyone in the comment section of the social media platforms who want to fight you on sake while not having juice, which I think is a good time. Matt, imagine rooting for an embroidered piece of cloth. Imagine.

Let's see. Looks like we have some Danny Dimes back here. He eats cover four, cover four, cover six, and cover one. Those are unique. A little different. But Permar99 says we got a big game coming in for Danny Jones. Again, maybe, but maybe statistically, maybe in fantasy at the end of the day. But probably going to have to come in garbage time.

He's going to need someone to kind of help him carry it and get there, whether that's a Darius Slayton or Richie James or Isaiah Hodges like I don't have a lot of faith here and again like I said on the other side it's a real problem with what the matchups like Dagle pointed out the man stuff the blitz heavy stuff seems like it's going to be a problem early down success rate always a key when handicapping a game. Not a super predictive thing, but obviously very descriptive in hindsight when you can look at it.

And the gap here is about as wide as it gets. The Giants defense, worst first down defense in the league. Philly is the second best offense in the league on first downs, and they are good both on the ground and passing the football. Giants equally bad in defending both those things. So yeah yeah you're gonna need a dominant saquon performance you're gonna need a dominant danny dives i think uh the

juice six and a half on fanduel i think is uh is a really good look to connor's point like i don't mind the seven but um i'm probably willing to pay the minus 120 on the six and a half just to keep it under the key number yeah no for sure um also i do want to bring this up here just a little bit of a tangent but uh pat connor from the chat Hey guys, do you have a plus 1100 future? And I can get 90 K on, uh, he's referring to the Darren Revell puff piece that came out earlier today, talking about the better who bet, uh, a third grade teacher who put $90,000 on an 1100 future to win a million dollars. Uh, and he said to have had no inside information and it's just betting, you know, normally

he said he's quote a degenerate. Um, and this kind of stuff pisses me off because it's like an obvious glorify, like glorifying, you know, betting and like just degenerate gambling for people who like most people don't have that kind of money. And I don't know how this guy has money because no third grade teacher makes enough money in their early twenties to have 90 K liquid. And, uh, you know, so either he's working for a betting syndicator as a trust fund baby, and either way, the way Darren Ravel covered is an absolute joke. Uh, it's kind of like the goes back to the parlay path stuff where they covered

that guy, made him look out to the, be like this God and like have all these, you know, inside info and you know, he's a loser, he's broke.'s broke and so like you know this kind of stuff is really dangerous for the industry and just a bad look so you know revel go go hide and hole uh pat uh you know thank you for bringing this up i thought it's it's hilarious and uh joey kanisha had a great thread on twitter just absolutely roasting revel because uh yeah it doesn't make any sense so yeah uh i laugh i thought maybe that's what you were looking at too and maybe get your your giggles going but uh yeah 90k for a teacher uh is is absolute wild so yeah we're definitely missing some follow-up questions there from uh right revel but uh again no disrespect to you by bringing it up and we're talking about it or we're giving revel all he wants which is like it's like the steven a thing do you think he knows that he does this though like do you think that like for sure he sleeps you think so

fine yes he does not give he what does the check come in every two weeks from does chad sign the check he's fine we're doing he's doing okay uh i imagine he can give two rips about uh about even reading his mentions at this point yeah hey well he he responds to me on some stuff it's funny because all like i it because I just obviously am sick and don't really have that much energy to be a keyboard warrior tonight, but I was really debating on quote tweeting him and going at him a little bit because he got pretty heated with the Parley Pat stuff with me

because I said he was very irresponsible journalism, and he did not like that. So I think he cares a little bit more than that, but yeah, I think to your point, he's making a shitload of money, and I respect that at least a little bit. All right, next, another divisional matchup We have AFC North here We have Cleveland on the road in Cincinnati Looks like we have basically sixes across the board

FanDuel again, a little off market Six and a half Though it is juiced towards Cleveland here It's plus 100 to take the Bengals in this spot 47 is the total Again, everywhere else is 47 juiced towards Cleveland here. It's plus 100 to take the Bengals in this spot. 47 is the total. Again, everywhere else is 47. Fandle, 47.5.

They are a little off market in a couple of spots here. I think it was fair to expect a little loss from Deshaun Watson in his first start in nearly two years, but a return to Houston against the Texans defense was a pretty soft landing spot, and Watson was flat-out terrible. Posted a negative 10.9% completion percentage over expectation, just a tick ahead of Kyle Allen in the same game for the worst mark of the week. Now you've got a road game in division against the new divisional foe, Cincinnati, who continues to scoff at us

in their supposed difficult strength of schedule. They are playing really good football, and they present a much more difficult matchup for Watson and the Browns this week. He's going to need a ceiling game to compete with the Bengals with the way they're playing right now. They got curb stomped in Cleveland just a few weeks ago, and I'm sure they'd love to return the favor here. That was a Jamar Chase-less Bengals team.

They are just a different team, no surprise, with Jamar Chase, who looked 100% healthy in that game last week. Watching that back, he, I think, is absolutely fine. He was probably really close to playing in Tennessee, but they did save him and he looks good. Mixing coming back as well. I mean, Samadji Pirine's played well in his place, but should be an interesting one here. Dago, what are your thoughts? I think it's more about the matchup that the Browns defense doesn't offer the Bengals offense. And that's what I look to since the Browns still bottom six or top six and

explosive rushing plays allowed 10 plus yards on the year, still top 10 and explosive passing plays allowed as well. And what we got was a not limited Jamar chase at all, ran around on every single drop back, except two of them for the Bengals. Not to mention Joe Burrow now with 20 carries in his last two games as they are getting him involved

more with their legs. So even if Joe Mixon were to return and halt the rapport, the chemistry this team has right now with Samaj Pirine in being a more conservative but thus efficient offense, like the being like the chiefs play. Uh, I don't think it matters here against the spot against the

Browns defense that still remains one of the worst in the league. So yeah, I do like the Bengals to cover here. Yeah, I agree. I think that, uh, we don't have to rely on since he going past every or anything. I think that they crush on the ground here with mixing returning. And I also think now the Bengals have DJ reader back to, which makes a big difference in their run defense against the Browns. And so obviously if they're not able to rely on that, I mean, we all, we all watched the game together. Like Deshaun Watson was throwing the ball into the dirt. Like he was trying to throw the ball too hard and it was spraying it everywhere through obvious interceptions. Like, yeah, like he's rusty coming back. I don't think it's going to stay like this forever, but do we think it gets

better immediately in one week? Like maybe even a little bit better. And he's rusty coming back. I don't think it's going to stay like this forever, but do we think it gets better immediately in one week? Like maybe even a little bit better. And he's still not like anywhere near what he should be. So yeah, I like the bangles in this spot. And I think that, yeah, I think this is a good spot here for Cincinnati to cover.

And I, I know again, I've been saying it here multiple times, but six points on the road, you know, or six points at home. This is a, this is a good spot here.

I mean, this is, I think, I think the wind by a touchdown easy. Yeah. I do like the edge here again, thinking of, you talked about it too. It's the second time in the division. Sometimes you get a little bit familiar with each other, but this is a very different Bengals team with chasing lineup. And again, I think because they got beat up so badly there, I do think that helps a little bit here. And again, like the Beng the Bengals will continue to have a difficult schedule.

They really can't let up at all. They do need to really kind of put their foot on the back of the necks of the Browns here and really keep them out of this and then move forward and continue to position themselves in this division, take advantage of what's going on in Baltimore with Lamar's issue and injury and really solidify themselves into the playoffs here and kind of keep that momentum rolling. So yeah, I think, I think you're right.

Six is probably the side is bangles or nothing for me. You just need to see Watson play better and knowing that what Cleveland wants to do still run the football, just so much harder against the bangles when they have DJ reader in that lineup. All right, next Tampa Bay on the road in San Francisco. So it's moved a little bit. Three's three and a half's out there. DraftKings is kind of the lone wolf at three.

37 is the total. Again, FanDuel off market there, 37 and a half. This was supposed to be a TV network's wet dream, with the Bay Area kid returning home to take on the team that he grew up rooting for as a child, squaring off against his slightly less handsome but younger counterpart who was once allegedly handpicked to be his replacement in New England. But Jimmy G's injury changes the marquee there. Now it's the former Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy,

under center for the Niners. Played really well last week in place of Garoppolo when he went down the first quarter. Can't say the same about the Buccaneers. They were terrible for 57 minutes on Monday night against the Saints. Brady kind of saved them at the end. Again, bad coaching on the Saints' side with punts and deciding to target Marcus Callaway on a slant on third and one

to stop the clock and even allow that to happen. Kind of a mess. This was six, six and a half in the little kid market with Jimmy G. And now, you know, threes, um, down there with, uh, with Brock Purdy. Dagle, what are your thoughts? I don't know why this got down to three, the 49ers should be at least three and a half and laying the hook here. Uh, you also have a short week for the Bucks traveling, as you mentioned, to the Bay area. And this Bucks team is miserable. Like even in winning that game, 17 points, they haven't reached 23 points in eight consecutive games now. It's not an offense genuinely you fear.

Even Todd Bowles this past game, they had that instance where they were down by two scorers in the second half and they were on New Orleans' 40 and they pondered the ball in fourth and short. It's just absurd like how bad bad this Bucks team is. So no, I have no respect for them. And Brock Purdy just seems to be a situation as Nick Mullins was as a, as a rookie in 2018, of course, in those eight starts,

the average over eight yards per attempt, Nick Mullins who's not even good at professional football because Kyle Shanahan system is what elevates you. Not the other way around as it's been elevating Garoppolo for his career. So yeah, I think Brock Purdy's in a fine situation, honestly. And I can't believe it's three, honestly. I almost bet four earlier in this week. I was waiting to see if it moved.

I didn't think it would get down to three, though. So yeah, I like the 49ers a lot in this game. Yeah, DraftKings three at minus 115. Connor, what are your thoughts? Yeah, I guess my concern with this game is just, I just don't know. I don't really see a path for either team having like a ton of sustained success here, like offensively. And I think a lot of that, I mean, for sure on the Tampa Bay side, you know, like they, again, we just struggled mightily for 95% of that game against New Orleans,

now facing a much tougher test against San Francisco. 37 point total here is not crazy, but it's like, you know, on the surface, when you look at it, it seems like incredibly low for a game with Tom Brady and I mean, relatively competent San Francisco offense. But to Diggle's point, like San Francisco, the quarterback position has almost been, I mean, plug and play to an extent, you know, whether it's, you know, Nick Mullins or Jimmy G and maybe not so much Trey Lance, but there are plenty of other examples along the way as well. So, but Tampa Bay's defense has been pretty solid. I mean, eighth and DVO way, like, I just don't know, like, there's not like a clear path where like, oh, they can just run the ball and like consistently

move the ball. I still lean towards them at three, but it's not something that I, I love because I do think that the game's going to be kind of a, I don't know, coin flip either way. If, if Brady does some Brady things like we, like things like we just saw. I mean, that was such a ridiculous win, but it just happens. I don't know. It's one of those things that I don't like to bet against because it just consistently happens. I don't know. Is that fair? Yeah, it's interesting. Yeah, no, it's fair. I'm with Daigle. My natural is the same. Like I don't expect it to be the same line as Jimmy G, but I also do think that like we all kind of know Jimmy G, right? He's, he's limited, but very serviceable.

And it's more about the plug and play system. And we've seen like Dagle mentioned, other quarterbacks come in here and just, they always lead the league in the act by a big, big way. Jimmy G is always up there in EPA, completion percentage over expectation. A lot of those things are scheme stats. Those are like Shanahan-led and driven stats. And I think Brock Purdy has showed himself sometimes in college, obviously.

But again, Iowa State's obviously a little different than the NFL. But he played well. He took advantage of what was there. They got Christian McCaffrey more involved. A little bit harder to do that with Tampa Bay. They're really, really stout at defending passes to running backs. They have really good – David and White can obviously both cover the perimeter and spawn that field pretty well.

But again, I feel good about what they have going on there. I like this matchup quite a bit. So, yeah, I kind of think the three is the side for me i just i don't know like before it happened with the rams and they fell apart like packers a little bit too like we've kept waiting for these nfc teams that we thought were going to be those guys coming into the season the bucks have been the one holding on longest because they have had you know the fewest devastating injuries but like i don't know and i know historically that the saints have really struggled brady struggled against dennis allen and all those things but man like it's bad man they were bad for that entire saints allowed them to get back

and then brady has you know those the ability to do that when it matters it's like call the two minute drill stuff the whole game right like uh build a plate out of the black box kind of a thing. It's like I really just can't keep doing it. Like Mike Evans has been kind of a no-show. Chris Godwin's stuff is like it's like Braxton Berrios-ish. Like, you know, he's just kind of catching and falling down. I don't know. It's just very, very limited.

And this is a tougher defense to do it against, right? Like you're not going to be able to run the ball. They're going to still try to run the ball. They're not going to have a lot of success doing so. I just, I'm, I feel like the Tampa Bay offense is so limited right now. This doesn't feel like a spot where they're going to get it right on the road. Short week traveling West. No. Yeah. I think it's important too, that we make a note now before we see the Bucks make like a, I i don't know somewhat inevitable playoff run i guess i guess i don't know like winning their division probably to probably fade them immediately the first time they play a good team in the playoffs like just you know like any well-rounded team i

think just they we need to fade the bucks even though they're probably going to rip off some wins here at least to close out the year and win win win the division. Probably. I think right now, wouldn't they play the Cowboys? I think so. I mean, I would take the Cowboys at like minus nine. I don't even know. Like, I mean,

it's they're massive should be massive favorites. The other thing here is Tristan worse out last week out again, that we saw that how it kind of like reared its head in the Miami game without Taryn Armstead. Both have played really well in that game. Eric Armstead is back for San Francisco as well. He came back last week. So, like, I don't know.

I think that they're still going to be able to collapse the pocket. We know Brady does not want to get hit anymore. He's 45. He's got a new hot young girlfriend. He's trying to make sure that he's, you know, keep it upright and keep it moving. He's not trying to, you know, get laid out in the field in San Francisco. So, again, some of the field in San Francisco. So again,

some of this stuff can be noisy statistically Tampa Bay fourth and DVOA against the running back position, 5.1 targets per game, 18.7 yards, which is by far the fewest in league to the running back position. Again, I know that Christian McCaffrey is very much a guy that can break a lot of molds and love to see him getting a lot of work. And again, the quick stuff is what Purdy did really well last week. I imagine he does it again here. Just worth noting that Tampa Bay has done pretty well at stopping now.

All right. Next, another, again, divisional games. We got two more to finish up. The Jets on the road in Buffalo. Let me get the freshest lines here on this one. Make sure we are relevant here. I'm surprised this one's out of the low. It's still nine and a half across the board. MGM down to nine, and that's flat at 110. 44, 43 and a half is the total here. Jets won

against Buffalo a few weeks ago, and it felt like that might be, in hindsight, one of the flukiest wins of the season, especially with Zach Wilson under center. Perhaps it was, but again, you can't flukiest wins of the season, especially with Zach Wilson under center. Perhaps it was. But again, you can't argue the Jets are playing better football right now. Defense is terrific. Mike White has been able to get something going, at least with Garrett Wilson, and turn that team into at least a credible offense. Really struggled on third downs against Minnesota.

They were 3-16, terrible in the red zone. And yet they still had a chance to win late in that game. Buffalo on the other side, coming off of back-to-back Thursday games, a little rest advantage here. Handled the Patriots pretty comfortably on Thursday night. Josh Allen really struggled in the first meeting. They spied him all game. He did manage to get two rushing touchdowns,

but zero touchdowns through the air, through two picks, just 205 yards passing. Connell, I'll let you get started here in this matchup. Nine and a half, basically, across the board in the Bills. Yeah, it's interesting because if we go back to last season, this was actually, you know, the death to Mike White game where he threw four picks. And, you know, there was some, you know, obviously rumblings

about him kind of keeping the job here. And, you know, it didn't happen. He played horribly and, you know, obviously rumblings about him kind of keeping the job here. And, you know, it didn't happen. He played horribly and, you know, threw four picks, but they, the, the key there was that they got in such a hole that you had to dig them out of. And so they like without that happening, which is what did not happen last time. They basically just were able to let Zach Wilson just make easy throws, run the ball, play good defense. And they came out with the wind. Like, I think that as long as the defense holds up, uh, I mean, Mike White doesn't get put in the situation to try and make, you know, those kinds of throws. And I think that that that's probably fine. So for me, if this got to 10, I would really like the jets. I know that sharp Clark's on Buffalo. Um, but I think

that the defense is able to keep it close. They kind of already laid out a blueprint before. And, uh, I mean, Mike White just continues to take what's given to him. And I think that that's fine. They already were able to, again, kind of like lay out that blueprint against them last time with doing that rather than just like forcing it. So I,

I don't know, maybe it's, I know it seems like I'm going at some sharp action here, but I lean towards the under 43 and a half or 44. And then the jets here at 10, if he gets there. It really just comes down. Yeah, it really comes down to how Mike White fares, honestly,

because as Connor mentioned last year in this spot, the Bills were the number one pass defense DVOA. This year they're number seven, which is still a little bit of a margin between those two rankings. Also, Bills, because of their injuries, and that's really all you can chalk it up to, the seventh lowest EPA per dropback since their week seven bye. That's why in two of their last four games, they've allowed two 300-yard passers. It was two of three, and then they ran into Matt Jones. And whenever you're running back, lead your team in targets for four consecutive

games. That is not a testament to his talent. It's an inability to scheme offenses, whatever the hell the Patriots were doing. So we can't even really take away anything from the Bills' performance for that game. But at the same time, Vaughn Miller was the biggest key here because that allowed the Bills to lead the league in defensive snaps with four pass rushers or less. And against four pass rushers or less so far this year,

Mike White is 40th in completion rate, 31st in yards per attempt uh and so it's going to depend like if they need to feel like they can blitz mike white has been tremendous against the blitz so far actually he because he gets rid of the ball so quickly and dumps it off to his running back so we're now carrying a 25 target share combined with him under center so we'll just have to see i think the von miller injury could be pretty key here if you told me to lean one way yes like connor i do actually lean towards the over i think we get a slower paced game with james cook nine minds and devin singletary essentially being the focal points of the offense in order to uh to dump off underneath yeah i'm it feels like too many um i can't i don't have any interest in backing the Jets,

though I do think it's probably the right side. I still want to see a little bit more from the Bills. I still think this is an elite team. This is a top-five offense that has somehow pretty much all season been a bottom 6-7 offense inside the red zone. That feels unsustainable to me. Like when you're that good and we know you were coming that good into the season, you're that good last year.

Can't get it going in the red zone. That feels like they were leaving points on the board consistently. So the problem is again, the jets are terrific. They're like top three, both against the run and the pass inside the red zone. So yeah, it's going to be a good football game to watch. I'm interested to see the chess match here and how they play differently. I do think the Von Miller thing is interesting too, but I would probably lean Jets or nothing,

but it's just not a side that I want to bet here, you know, backing him on the road in December. So I think the Bills are going to just kind of flip the switch at some point and then all of a sudden we're gonna be hanging 35 a game on people because uh just moving the ball up and down the field and then suddenly for field goals way too frequently so yeah i know some people might talk about this like as a teaser leg too because it's kind of in that zone uh for me i'm still like i think it's it's too like too rich even at that point because like i think that the jets i mean could'm not, I think that they could win.

I mean, in like some scenarios, there's a reasonable path that happening again, whereas like a lot of, you know, nine point favorites, uh, like, you know, you don't really see a reasonable path to underdog winning. Whereas like Buffalo's is so volatile, like they could easily win by 17 and also just potentially lose outright based on how Josh Allen's playing essentially. So just a little bit more of a volatile team that I would not tease if you guys are considering that. Yeah.

Even nine and a half, we're not getting through the three. So it's, you know, you definitely would want that to be eight and a half to even consider into Connor's point. Like jets are definitely a live, live dog in this spot.

All right. Another spot. We don't want fuels. We want some offensive fireworks. We have minnesota on the road against the lions obviously we've lots of line movement here uh lions painted two and a half across the board 52 and a half 51 and a half uh for the total here again twitter's lost its mind this week uh could not possibly fathom how a 10 and 2 vikings club could be underdogs on the road against a 5-7 Lions team.

Does Lions continue to move that way? It was available in lookaheads. The Lions were plus three. And now we are – we're not 2-3 yet on the other side or even through the three, which would be a substantial move. But, again, we are Detroit short favorites now at two and a half. It's a rematch of a really close week three contest. Vikings won 28-24.

It really shut down Justin Jefferson. Again, like we've talked about, the Lions defense has made a lot of improvements. I think you can still get him in the secondary. But just three catches, 14 yards for Jefferson in that matchup. I think we have another close high-scoring game here. It is interesting, too, when you look at some of the teams that the Vikings have played. And I know everyone's looking for reasons to talk about the Vikings and how they're in a ton of one-score games.

My least favorite thing to do that we do in the Twitter analytics sphere is talk about how one-score games. I'm like, oh, here's the team's record if they lost all of their one score games instead of winning all like and it's like they lost by they won by seven like they maybe they were like a straight up like pick them why are we even doing this it's so stupid like save your time stop asking someone on the graphics team to make you a graphic for that crap it's so dumb i know that it like normalizes over the course of time but like just pretending that like one score games could like be a coin toss the other way is really really really really lazy um analysis

for like it just goes to like the you don't watch football games and you just look at stat stuff like that's so dumb anyway look at some of the teams that they've played they played some tough defenses jets last week new New England, too. Again, we all agree isn't as good defensively as their statistics are, but still an above-average defense. Dallas' defense is terrific. Buffalo, Washington, those are both on the road. They've played really good defenses of late,

at least really good secondaries, and have still continued to kind of hang. This is a lot softer of a spot for them to kind of get things going here. So I'm interested to see where this one's moving. I love what we're seeing from this Lions offense. I think when Amon Ra is out there, they are a top 10 offense. You know, Swift popped up on the injury report today, Daigle. But again, when he's out there, they can do a lot more. That's interesting too.

Give me your thoughts on this one. Vikings also running the second highesthighest rate of zone defense in a monerize, actually fourth among all wide receivers, in yards per outrun against zone coverage, averaging 10 targets and 32.5% of Detroit's targets in five games without T.G. Hawkinson now this year. But for the Vikings, I just look at how bad their defense has been. That's where the focal point is for me.

The Lions are scoring 31.5 points per game game over the last month and in that same time the Vikings are allowing 29 and a half and not total but they're averaging in their last four games eight and a half 15 yard gains through the air per game like eight and a half per game 15 yard plays just through the air not even on on the ground, including that is absurdly poor pass defense. And so I think the Lions are going to have a lot of success here. Honestly, you also mentioned about DeAndre Swift popping up in the injury report, but we also know with him getting back involved now, coincidentally, his first week off the injury report since week one, this past game, he out touched Jamal Williams for the first time since week one as well.

But the Vikings we know are also top three in yards per attempt and receiving yards per game to opposing running backs through the air. So Jared Goff is finally getting some tag team partners here to go along with Amonra St. Brown. I look at the total and I say, okay, on one hand, the Jaguars didn't help us out at all, and it was still a no contest last week. That game totaled 54 points

between the Lions and the Jaguars with the Jags throwing for less than 200, scoring only 14 points. At the same time though, my only concern here is yes, Kirk Cousins has played tougher defenses as you mentioned of late, but at the same time,

like the Lions as we know are a top six defense and snaps for man coverage. And Kirk Cousins has been piss poor against man coverage this year. He's attempted the sixth most passes against man and he's averaging seventh worst EPA, completing just 50% of his passes

for six and a half yards per attempt and the same touchdown rate as Russell Wilson, 2.3% against man coverage. I do think we're going to get some points from the Vikings, perhaps through Dalvin Cook, since we're still attacking Detroit's front seven on the ground. And because Justin Jefferson actually is still averaging since they traded for T.J. Hawkinson, 3.3 yards per outrun against man coverage, just blowing it up. We've also seen the Lions get absolutely smoked by slot receivers now

for basically the last month. Wanda Robinson, Isaiah McKenzie, this past game against Christian Kirk. And so it is a good spot for Justin Jefferson, but I actually do somewhat worry about the Vikings carrying their weight on offense in this game, honestly, at least if they expect to do so through the air. And so I think it's going to get to three. Like if I bet the Vikings, I'd wait for it to get to those three points and take that. Uh, but either way, yes, I guess I would lean the over. Um, I don't know. It's, it's a weird spot, honestly. I know you have some thoughts cause I know this is a big, be a big DFS spot based on the total.

So, um, yeah, Connor, what are your thoughts here? I think it's going to be an interesting matchup. I was surprised to see Justin Jefferson get shut down here. I remember having a Justin Jefferson over ticket first time these two teams met, uh, which probably not, not surprise you, but, uh, yeah, I mean, it feels like a great spot for him to get right. And obviously I think if the Vikings do get there and deliver and do the things we need them to do to push this game, he's got to do it.

Yeah, I think the good thing about like kind of the man zone splits is something that I've been learning throughout the years. Like even the teams that play a ton of man, like Detroit's only playing man 35% of the time. So like, I think there's still enough room, uh, where maybe like on a play to play basis, maybe it makes Kirk's life tougher, but like the explosive nature of their offense and, uh, Detroit's, I guess,

you know, lack of, uh, stopping explosive plays, you know, I think can kind of like feed into wash or, uh, Minnesota and like how them, like, you know, still having success here. So I like the over. I think it's a good look with the Lions defense playing better, but I still don't think it's very good. The Vikings defense, as Dago mentioned, just especially bad. 31st explosive pass right on the whole season. Has just been getting routinely rinsed on a week-to-week basis.

And this Lions offense has been playing awesome. So I think that either one of these teams kind of driving scoring is very much in play. And both teams are capable of kind of like playing catch-up or playing and like keeping up there. So I really like that. And, you know, I think that at this point, like 51 and a half, you're seeing in some books, it's like open to 53, 51 and a half.

I think that's a good spot here. So, yeah, I like the over here. Third consecutive game, lines are at home as well. Yeah. a good spot here so yeah i like the over here third third consecutive game lines are at home as well yeah uh being king congrats on the bank um and being a king a couple guys here talking about the game being slowed down running the running more it just doesn't match anything we've seen from either of these clubs from a pace standpoint they're both top eight in situation and basically regardless of the situation, you know, trailing first half, second half,

like these guys both press into pace. So I don't think we're going to see a team, you know, try to slow the game down. I think that just the way this game is going to work and the way these teams interact with each other is going to be just a lot of play volume. And, you know,

yeah, they could both run the ball and have success doing so, but not necessarily always slow the pace down. It not necessarily how it always works um you don't always believe the clock just because you ran the ball in the previous play so yeah i think it's gonna to lead to uh some exciting stuff here all right what else uh anything on the board for you connor that we didn't touch on here that you like this week do you uh want to talk about real quick before we wrap up yeah i thought seattle minus three and a half was a bit short. I just feel like this is a pretty solid spot for them, you know, against at home against Carolina. You know, I made this closer

to six. I just think they're a far superior team at this point all around. I know Carolina coming out of their bye. Seattle struggled a little bit last game, you know, against the Rams at times. But, you know, I just generally genuinely think that like they're a significantly better team and that this is kind of a good bounce back spot here. I mean, outside of like their loss to Tampa and they came out of their buy and then, you know, barely beat the Rams. I still think they're a much better team than the Panthers at this point. So I like them at three and a half. What do you got, JD? Not as big of a card as last week, but I also laid three and a half on FanDuel for the Titans over the Jaguars. To me, again,

it just comes down to how bad this Jaguars defense has been. And that was the trend heading into last week against the Lions, which is why I was heavy on the Lions money line. But the Jaguars defense now since week six, 290 passing yards, 27 and a half points per game, which the passing yards is important because I don't know what's going on with Derrick Henry. 2.6 yards per carry over the last month has looked miserable, but we don't even need Derrick Henry here. I think Ryan Tannehill single-handedly covers line. So I do like the Titans. Yeah. I like the Seattle call. I like the seattle call i like the titans call too what do you i want to get your thoughts connor on uh uh clark posted uh houston um which again oh man you're a massive number you won't find me betting that yeah i mean it's a huge number right like it feels

really square to lay 16 and a half on the cowboy side. It also feels maybe a little like intentionally contrarian to take the 16 and a half. Cause it seems like it's just a massive number in the NFL these days, but I, I don't know. I'm not necessarily like, Oh, they're going back to Davis mills on that.

It still is a ton of confidence in, in the Texan side. And again, I know that what the cowboys did was maybe a little bit noisy and fluky. Like they turned it on real late and had defensive touchdowns and stuff like that. But they are capable of doing that. I don't really know how they are slowed down by,

you know, maybe a Texans team that played their Super Bowl last week a little bit, right? With, you know, Watson coming to town. I mean, if they play their Super Bowl, they got murdered in their Super Bowl. It's the Texans. They're going to get murdered in their Super Bowl. I i mean as someone who bet the texans last week and again the browns scored what was it 27 points and none of it came on offense like there were no offensive

touchdowns in that game like that shows you how bad the texans are yeah i mean look i think i think the right side is like you know, whatever Houston plus 16 and a half in terms of like, I don't know. I mean, cause I think that they'll be able to run the ball at least somewhat. Well, Dallas has run defense. It's not that good. So they have at least a path to like doing something. Uh, and I think that this game just like probably doesn't end up very high scoring because they

probably run the ball. Don't end up like finishing in the red zone. And then Dallas just does whatever they want. So that's kind of my issues like maybe they can like kind of limit the game increase you know variance like keep it tight uh and maybe lose by less than 17 so that's like my my take on like how it covers but in terms of like them keeping pace like if dallas scores 30 uh i mean all they got to do is score like 14 like i don't know i mean i guess that's possible you know i guess they can get there it was interesting to see but who knows we'll see the one that's

interesting to me is the monday night game with new england's being favorites in arizona um short favorites to one and a half at some spots a really bad patriots team beats at the time, a really good Cardinals team a couple of years ago, just Cam Newton year. And Kyler didn't do anything. The 170 yards passing only ran five times for 31 yards. And we know that you can run on new England historically with rushing quarterback. So like my first instinct was Kyler rushing here, right?

Cause new England's playing decent amount of man. You know, they're starting to blitz a little bit more later in the season than they were early in the season. You know, again, just feeling like, man, the Cardinals are probably the right side here. Diggle, do you have any thoughts on that matchup? Again, they're getting healthy. I mean, what they used, you know, Hollywood Brown came in, like, I don't know, seeing another week of having Hollywood back, Hopkins back.

I don't know. i feel like that's probably the right side they're at least an interesting teaser like because you can get them through three and through seven um but any thoughts on that matchup i don't think so yeah i know it's off the dfs slate so you probably haven't dug into it well it's not it's not that either it's just the fact that i don't like either of those offenses um i don't i don't trust either play caller so i like i have in a fantasy league i have jared golf or kyler murray and i think jared golf genuinely could outperform kyler murray so i haven't really looked at that one yet yeah i mean like i literally started breaking this down and i was like oh well i have no faith in arizona's offense to expose new england's defense more and i have no faith in new england's offense to expose New England's defense more. And I have no faith in New England's offense to do anything.

It's Arizona. But I also don't think that either defense is particularly good. So it's like, what matchup edge do we really have on either side? I don't know. Not a whole lot, to be honest, in my opinion,

plenty of time to break down a money game. Do that on Monday morning. Cause everyone loves to bet the Island games are new England out of the playoffs. We can't, we can't let them into the playoffs. They're not going to make the playoffs. Okay, good.

Okay. Let's say they're on the brink of sneaking in. They are. They're in the mix. Yeah, they're in the mix. Their schedule actually down the stretch was the only team that had a more difficult schedule than the Bengals down the stretch. So they'll work their way out of it.

Yeah. They're not a playoff team. I tried to tell Raul this a couple months ago when he told me to not lose the faith. He wanted to tell me that they're a playoff team and we're getting the momentum going. They're just not. Competitive probably for the most part in every game

or most of the parts of every game, but this is not a playoff team. They don't need to be rewarded for the playoffs. They need to understand that they need to be punished for their wrongs this year, go back to the drawing board, get some offensive-minded coaches, figure something out, and see if you can maybe recapture some of what Mac Jones did really well last year because none of that has been seen very often this year.

So not that pretty. All right, some good fantasy questions in the chat. We appreciate you guys hanging out. This is a betting show. Dangle does a DFS show and we have other fantasy shows. I'll probably have more stuff around, you know, helping you pick two guys here or projected ownerships or stuff like that. I haven't spent a ton of time on that on a Wednesday evening at this point

in the week. So plenty of time to get to that later. Again, that's why you subscribe to the 444 channel and get notifications for all the other great content on the site. So again, don't forget the 444 Bets channel on YouTube as well. And next level is the promo code you want

for 25% off of our betting subscription at 444. Go to 444.com slash plans and get access to that. So for Connor and Dagle, you did a great job when they were sick. I'm Ryan.