Move The Line - FREE NFL Picks for Week 16

Episode Date: December 21, 2022

Free NFL Picks for Week 16! Betting experts Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan & John Daigle share their top NFL bets for Week 16 of the 2022 NFL season for FREE! Join them as they divulge the best odds and lines so you can get the best number at your favorite sportsbook! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro4:00 TNF Bets11:12 Packers-Dolphins Bets16:29 Lions-Panthers Bets23:17 Bengals-Patriots Bets30:18 Giants-Vikings Bets40:36 Seahawks-Chiefs Bets48:51 Eagles-Cowboys Bets59:48 Final Betting Thoughts1:08:44 OutroWant a FREE 4for4 Betting Subscription? Deposit $10 into a new BetMGM account using promo code 4FOR4 👉🏼 https://4for4.com/go/BetMGMSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow John on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/notJDaigleVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TbYo4X4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea

Hello and welcome to Move the Line, I'm Ryan Noonan, joined here as always by my friends Connor Allen and John Daigle. Gentlemen, how are we doing today? Connor, how are we doing? I'll start with you. Good. Just preparing for the cold here for a couple of days before I jet off to Mexico. Very excited to get out of here.

And very sorry for you guys because it looks like Christmas Eve right now, low of zero degrees with the wind chill feels like negative 11. So not great. Daigle, are you excited you moved here? Unreal. And I can't make it home for the holidays. So I'm literally going to be stuffed indoors on my own, Christmas Eve and Christmas.

I guess watching football, even though that doesn't sound friendly either right now. You got out for a run the other day though. So that's good. Probably don't have many of those in the bag in the next, let's say six weeks. Whenever lived with silva i would still go running i was telling connor in single digits that's that's not a big deal to me you know you get the buff you get your little snow spikes that i have for running shoes like you can take care of it all it's just a nuisance because your

lungs also collapse in 30 seconds well set and hopefully uh again is it strange but obviously the way that the weekend's fallen with uh holidays and people traveling and stuff it's going to be uh an interesting weekend of football coming off of a really wild week 15 it's so many strange outcomes bizarre things we've never seen before things that i just can't even wrap my brain around. As someone who is recently separated a little bit from the laundry that they used to really passionately cheer for, you know, but man, my Patriots found a unique way to lose last week. We'll talk about that later in the show, but they were to do our best here to every Wednesday,

a little early today, typically seven 30 eastern um i have full-on dad duties tonight uh so the gentlemen have been kind enough to move it up for me but uh we want to talk about the favorite games on the board and take your questions if you're hanging out with us on youtube really appreciate that uh subscribe so you don't miss a show lots of other great content here on the 444 youtube channel and smash that like button goes a long way in helping us as well and jump in the chat let us know what your favorite week 16 look is side or total uh we also remind folks if you're looking on the prop side uh we have two episodes of move the line each week both available here on youtube and then obviously in podcast form as well wherever you consume those podcasts uh move the line prop drop live 2 p.m. Eastern every Friday with Pat May,

O'Connor, and myself. Again, lots of other great content on the 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel as well. It's a new channel, unique content there too, daily, different shorts and different stuff there. So definitely check out that page if you haven't as well. I also want to remind folks, we are near the end of the season and our 4 for 4 betting subscription reflects that, which makes sense. Maybe your fantasy playoff season is over. You're looking to have a weekend sweat. The 4 for 4 betting sub is the place to go. You are massively discounted currently.

It's going to take you through the end of February, get you access to every sport article. The 4 for 4 subscriber Discord, I think, is really the crown jewel of it all. You can get all of the official bets pushed through there as well. I just think is the best way to get that because oftentimes some of those bets move fairly quickly. You're going to want to get notifications for those. Promo code next level is going to get you an additional 25% off of what's already discounted

on the site. If you're still grinding DFS, Daigle, TJ, they're still providing all that DFS content. Again, literally everything on the 444 site is under the scope of the betting sub. So 444.com slash plans, promo code next level. Some good ones, gents. It looks like we'll talk Thursday night football here at the top. And then our favorite six pack of the week. We'll start with the Thursday night or Jacksonville and the Jets.

This one's been a little bit all over the place. Looks like it's settled for the most part right now. It's going to be minus one and Jacksonville and the Jets. This one's been a little bit all over the place. Looks like it's settled for the most part right now. It's going to be minus one and a half on the Jets. Totals down to 36, pretty low total here. Both clubs are on the outside looking in right now in terms of the AFC playoff picture. This is essentially a loser-leaves-town matchup too. Jacksonville has a path to the AFC South crown,

depending on what happens with Tennessee down the stretch, but it gets a lot harder if they lose this one. Zach Wilson still at the helm for the Jets, shockingly was not very good last week against the Lions, but was less awful than he has been. So that is perhaps something to get started with Jacksonville and the Jets. And although Zach Wilson himself played fairly bad last week, the fact is on that Lions defense, they still averaged over five yards per play, the Jets did, and nine yards per attempt from Wilson. And it's a very similar matchup here against the Jaguars,

who continue since week nine, since Trevor Lawrence basically started being able to match teams point for point. That's put more volume and plays on the Jacksonville defense, which remains one of the worst in the league. Fourth most points per game, 28.3, and 282 passing yards per week since week nine. So overall, I still think it's actually a favorable matchup for the Jets offense here. And so given the short week for Trevor Lawrence, left tackle

Cam Robinson also now done for the year, I do lean towards the Jets and that's more of a bet on Zonvin Knight more than anything in a good spot. Yeah. Interesting take there. Uh, yeah, I think the cam Robinson thing is definitely noteworthy. Connor, where are you at with Jacksonville and the jets? Yeah, I, I would probably lean towards the jets here, but I don't have enough faith in them in Zach Wilson because he's been like, we saw a little bit there in the beginning of the game where we thought, okay, well this could be okay. And he's playing well. And then he just threw that horrible interception. I mean, just like one of the worst you'll see pretty much all year. Um, and so I worry about that kind of stuff, like,

you know, tilting that in the favor of Jacksonville, obviously those kinds of turnovers are killer. Um, but you know, the upside continues to be there. He did make a nice throw there to, uh, you know, the tight end, uh, down, you know, eventually, which was good, but generally here in this spot, I'm a little bit worried because, you know, the weather end down, you know, eventually, which was good. But generally here in this spot, I'm a little bit worried because, you know, the weather isn't necessarily supposed to be game changing, but we're looking at, you know, low 40s, rain starting in the early afternoon, we're getting really heavy throughout the entire game,

and then 12 to 15 mile per hour winds early, and then increasing as the game goes on. So it's just in general, kind of like a gross game here. And then, uh, I think the jet secondary matches up fairly well against Zay Jones matches up well against Marvin Jones, Christian Kirk will likely play in the slot. So because of that, I know it's not a prop show, but my, my main look for this was I took Zay Jones under 51 and a half receiving yards, uh, there, but I think that like, if there was no weather and Mike White was here, I think this is

an entirely different game because if you have the jets pushing the Jags, like I think the Jags are able to keep up here, but I'm just not really sure with Zach Wilson that they like push the Jags at all in this spot. So I lean towards the under as well here on the game total too. Yeah. 36, 36 and a half looks like the best look.

If you're looking to get under. So we typically see FanDuel a little bit off market there. Caesars, DraftKings out at 36. I will say that, you know, field can you get under so we typically see fanduel a little bit off market there uh caesar's draft kings out at 36 i will say that you know at least we like to see the aggressiveness from zach wilson like 14 and a half a dot last week just impossible to trust i mean all we basically always a negative completion percentage over expectation um yeah it's an interesting matchup i don't have a huge lean i just think think that maybe the Jets are probably the better football team. I think that the Jags are better equipped.

In this spot, it's really hard to not back the quarterback position. And Trevor Lawrence, I feel like, is ascending. Warriors, I think we know what Zach Wilson is. But, you know, Dagle pointed out the Jacksonville defense is pretty bad. The one thing that they do well, first of all, it's the worst red zone defense in the league which is obviously obviously a problem um the one thing they do well defensively is stopping the run on first down and the jets continue especially with zach wilson under center

lean run heavy on early downs so that could put them in a spot where they are forced to be a little bit more clear on what they want to do and maybe set up jacksonville to have a little bit more advantageous stuff just looks defensively knowing that they're in passing situations knowing that wilson is going to be inaccurate when he does that um so i'd probably lean jacksonville i think jacksonville's an interesting teaser leg uh with where they're at right now because you can tease them at one and a half uh six point teasers taking you through the three and through the seven if you had anything that you really liked on saturday or sunday there's i think a handful of uh of viable options so i think that would probably be my best way to play it if i

wanted to get down i just have a really hard time having money on zach wilson and the game starts and i'm like why in the hell would i do this like i just feel that would be what would happen so uh in this instance we're talking about the game. Remember, you don't have to bet on everything. There are prop ways. I can't, the Connors,

a Jones look is a good way to get down some action on it. You don't have to bet every side. If, if the weather doesn't end up being bad, I think Christian Kirk overs are an interesting look kind of attacking the jets out of the slot could be, you know, avoiding DJ Reed and sauce Gardner.

I don't know, Dagle, any, any other thoughts if the weather is not like atrocious, which it's looking like it is? I'm going to be heavy on Zonvan Knight overs. Knight's share of backfield touches increased last week in a game he was injured in. So assuming he's fully healthy since he was removed

from the injury report as early as Tuesday, I think it's bell cow usage for Zonvan Knight. They don't want anything to do with Michael Carter. I like that. That's a good look. And it's like the Jags defense right now. I mean, dead last and past defense, but like, they're still not good at run defense either. You know, like, I mean, obviously outside of, you know, early downs, but like, I think they're 14th or 15th and run the DVO way. So it's definitely not nothing that we like need to avoid or anything. I think it's another, honestly, empty box score for Zach Wilson in that I do think he has a lot of success in terms of production,

but it's also going to be the last start we see him make for the Jets in his career. After he bought all of his offensive linemen, those little, like, whatever, what were those, mopeds or whatever they were? We are definitely done with Zach Wilson after this week. I know. By the way, I want to talk about that real quick. Like, I feel like that's a good gesture, but like, do you really think like 400 pound guys want to be riding like little mopeds? Like, I don't know. Maybe I, maybe I misread the situation. I just

don't think that's like a, an appropriate gift. Would you rather have that or the Jalen hurts Louis Vuitton bags? Give me the bags, bro. Well, maybe not. I don't know. It's I don't know. Kyler Murray did it right. Ky murray went with a custom golf bag and clubs for the holidays yeah that's that's better i mean there's just so many other things you can get them like why did you get them those like it's not like europe you know i don't know it's strange it's new york city like you want to be this big old 300 pound dude on a on a moped you know knocking around uh time square engine, interesting sites. So yeah.

All right. Well, we're going to move over to one of the Sunday games, a green Bay, excuse me, green Bay's in Miami. This is a, what is this noon on Sunday?

Actually. Yeah. The first game on Sunday, Miami is a three and a half to four point favorite, depending on your book, a total out there between 48 and a half and 49 and a half. So you want to shop that one around. If you're looking to,

to get down, obviously we talked already about some weather issues, kind of a weather slate. We can talk about the degrees in which that should be, you know, impacting handicaps or stuff like that. But of all the weather issues across the league, the Packers luck out,

they head down to Miami probably, you know, it looks like mid-50s, low-60s in Miami. So definitely typically Green Bay involved in mid-late December weather. But one area that they don't look out here is in terms of rest. They're traveling on a short week. They played on Monday night. Miami has the extra day because they played on Saturday in Buffalo. Miami's loss against the Bills put an end to their AFC East title hopes here. Big divisional matchup on the other side of this one, but it won't really matter if they don't take care

of business here. Packers are playing their best football of the season right now. They have an outside shot at getting into the dance as well, but they have to win out and get some help. Connor, I'll let you get started with Miami and Green Bay. Yeah, it's interesting. Raheem Mostert, uh, I believe did not practice or was like very limited today. Uh, and I think that that kind of matters because I think it gives Miami like a, a massive out here on the ground, uh, Packers right now worse in the league and run defense DVO way. Um, and like, you know, we saw Miami kind of get a little bit of their mojo back offensively against, uh, you know, Buffalo, you know, pretty

solid defense there, but now I just feel like this would give them such a good opportunity to really get back on track. Um, you know, really pounding it in between, you know, on the ground. Uh, and so if they have any like semblance of a healthy backfield there, I think that Miami kind of lays it on them here. I don't mind him at minus four, but on the other side, uh, I think it's worth noting, uh, you know, our friend Fabian summer pointed out on Twitter, the Packers offense since week 10, third and offensive DVO way. Um, and they've been playing a little bit better. They got Romeo Dobbs back who, uh, I mean, they just plugged right in there and was playing really well. You know, Christian Watson has lit it up at times. Uh, you know, Alan Lazard's just kind of there, but you

know, he's a good like chain mover, I would say. So like things are starting to click for a Packers team that needs to win out. Uh, secondary is not particularly good you know 26th in past evoa um 10th and run ddboa so like the issue is i think that they've run it even at in inopportune times like facing off against teams or better against the run um but i think if this gets in a little bit of track meet if miami pushes them a little bit we'll see rogers just kind of do the brady version of like you know screw it to run anymore. Let's just pass every play. And this game could be elevated here. So in a bad week, I think that this could be a pretty fun game.

If the Packers can kind of keep pace here, because I expect Miami to do a decent amount of damage. I have all the confidence in the world and Miami's offense more than anything. After Tua led the league in depth to target against the Chargers with no success, we knew something was going to happen. We knew something was going to happen. We knew they were going to change it up. And they did with 30 pass attempts to 23 running back carries, those carries being their most in a game since their bye. And that, of course, led to five carries alone for 10-plus yards

as an explosive rushing team to go along with their big playability and scheming passes on the intermediate level of the field. So yeah, given the fact that the Packers are one of four defenses in the league, allowing over five yards per carry, I think it's going to be a huge week for Mostert and this offense overall. And it is just simply a question of if the Packers can keep around. I bet the Dolphins early in the week. I did not expect both team totals and the total overall to go up, but honestly, I still lean the Dolphins for that reason, for that matchup advantage, also for the rest advantage. Yeah, so it looks like what Jeff Wilson didn't play last week.

Questionable. I don't think he's practiced yet. Most are, they were fine mixing in Solomon Ackman. He had some success in it too. I think if they just decide they want to run the football, I think they will find a ton of success. And as you know, Dago, we talked briefly too offline. Like I think the rest advantage is massive too. And this one's shifted in Green Bay's favor. This was six, six and a half and look aheads. There've been some really sharp people, sharp people that we know that are really touting this like Green Bay down the stretch thing. And i guess it doesn't really

matter it doesn't get off the ground if it doesn't happen here i just think this is a really tough spot for them to bounce back on a short week and go ahead and take care of business so yeah i think miami at three and a half is is a pretty interesting look um that definitely would be my lean i haven't met the game but that would definitely be where i'm at too and i think that most are proper you know jeff wilson if you can get team total props um around like miami having some success running kind of matching what dagle's saying with the spike in team carries overall i think could be a good look here as well i think they have lots of success and i think it allows them to take the air out of the football a little bit too because connor mentioned too like green

bay is getting healthier like they haven't really had all of these guys at the same time even randall cobb who again is dusty but like rogers trusts him he is definitely a chain mover in the slot like they just haven't had all these guys at the same time and now they finally have all of it aaron jones looked fresh last week so yeah they definitely are maybe ascending but i think it's going to be probably a little bit too late for the pack all right we'll move on to another surprisingly relevant, another loser leaves town matchup here. Detroit is on the road in Carolina. Looks like it is, again, shop because this matters.

It's two and a half. Detroit side here almost everywhere. DraftKings is out to a full three. 43 and a half, 44 is the total depending on your book. No one wants to win the NFC South. And right now no one's eliminated. There's a path for each of the four teams to actually win this division. Big games for the Panthers are still to come.

Road games in Tampa and New Orleans. But they technically control their own destiny if they can win this week. They could still take care of business regardless if they handle those divisional games, but it gets a lot easier if they don't need as much help if they can get this win against Detroit. Under Steve Wilkes, they started to play better defensively. They were running the football well,

and Sam Darnold has actually been good enough. Not really from a fantasy perspective or anything that we would want to, you know, attack that way. But his completion percentage over expectation is like positive 7%. He's not turning the ball over. That's obviously been a massive issue for him in the past. So they definitely have something going here a little bit right now.

Lions obviously continue to roll as well. Last week's win on the road in the elements against a tough Jets defense was, I think, encouraging for anyone who's backing the Lions. Dale, let you get started with this matchup. I think this is one of the games where weather is being severely overrated. Since it's simply cold, like Miami and Buffalo, winds, rain, nothing worrisome here. And if that's the case, it led me to bet the over for better or worse on Monday and I probably even got the worst number since I think the total is still sinking but I'm

still confident in the over because we've seen now well first of all Connor has the offensive stats I saw him tweet it earlier so I'll leave the Lions offense to him but for the Panthers we can just look most relevantly to last week against Zach Wilson. I already mentioned it, nine yards per attempt, only 17 points allowed, but they had no issues, the Jets did, moving the ball whatsoever through the air. And that's what we're seeing now.

No player has rushed for over 75 yards against the Lions since their bye, but that's forcing opponents through the air for 37 pass attempts per game. So I think we're going to get volume from the Panthers. And we all want more volume for DJ Moore, for example, just one of them. Terrace Marshall as well against this Lions defense that literally allows everyone, no matter how bad you are, you can be an average quarterback against the Lions. And just the fact that we also saw last week against the Steelers, whenever they went down 21 to seven over the next 20, 25 minutes,

the Panthers and Steve Wilkes called a 76% pass play rate. They won't run the ball in negative game script like Arthur Smith. They will turn it up if someone's scoring on them. And so I think we get a little push here from the Panthers, honestly. So I do like the over in this matchup. It's interesting. I do think that there probably is a weather overrate here, though we do know that there has been some stuff historically.

Maybe he kind of like moved past the last week, Connor, with Jerry Goff out in the cold because it does look cold, especially for North Carolina this time of year. But what are your thoughts on this matchup? Yeah, I thought he played fine. But i guess in retrospect with that matchup like looking against the jets like their perimeter corners are great but they're susceptible like in the middle over the slot and that's where jared goff likes to throw the ball you know aman ra likes to throw the ball over the middle makes a ton of sense so why that went over. So yeah. What? Yeah.

So, I mean like, yeah, right. Exactly. And so, and then beyond that, he had like a 51 yard,

perfectly dialed up a touchdown to Brock, right. You know, to end the game there and a game winning touchdown, you know, prior to that, whatever, 13 points.

Like, I think that they were fine. It was definitely better than I expected to be honest, but it was not great. Now at this point, like I would agree. it's nothing like 95% of quarterbacks, any quarterbacks. This shouldn't matter, right? You know, we're looking at temperatures in the 20s, 11 mile per hour winds, making it feel like it's in the teens.

But this is, again, probably one of the coldest games that Jared Goff has ever played in. I'm worried because I think that the Panthers are going to try and run the ball like a lot early on and then have minimal success. And I'm worried if the Lions don't push the Panthers are going to try and run the ball like a lot early on and then have minimal success. And I'm worried if the Lions don't push the Panthers and aren't able to have success offensively, this game is just an absolute snooze fest. So I lean towards the under. I get what Daigle's saying. And the Lions, as he mentioned, during their six and one stretch since week nine, Lions

offense ranks fourth in points per game, first in pass EPA play, first in drive success rate. So they have been crushing. It's just one of those things that it feels like we just got an under last game and another spot here where the Panthers defense is not good. Don't get me wrong, but it could be a little bit of letdown spot for me for the Lions offense here. Maybe I'm reading too much into it and having that underneath security blanket with Amin Rah and just like actual weapons is, you know, good for

him at this point in his career. But I don't know. I'm a little nervous. I think that 44 is a little bit high for this game. Not going to lie. Bartab, I'll take the over. You take the under. Let's do it. I'm done. Got it. I think a first half under is a really decent look here. We have some pretty drastic splits defensively from half to half, particularly Carolina, who has been awesome in the first half, like top five defensively in DVOA and bottom five in the second half. And we saw it again last week against the Steelers. So I think you both could be right. My lean would be maybe looking at a first half under. And then if you were encouraged about some of the underlying stuff that you've seen, maybe you can catch an over on a live line at the half.

But I think an under look might be uh might be interesting so what are you looking at like probably on the right side of 21 right 21 and a half yeah yeah could be an interesting look so to unpack that a little bit more but just my early look and research i saw some pretty i thought noteworthy drastic splits i think some of that could be noisy but again when we've talked about anything statistically at this point in the season, we have 15 weeks of data. It's football. We're always going to have small sample sizes, but we have enough where I feel like on the tails of some of these things, I think there's a little bit of statistical relevance to it. As far as how our teams come out in scripts, how they come out first half defensively,

I think some of those things matter. So it could be worth a time takeover you can maybe get a better number and double down live on uh on and over at the half i see 44 the universal number are you seeing that or 44 and a half i'm seeing 44 43 and a half at fanduel um we can we can stick with 44 but let's let's middle the numbers all right right. We'll roll with that. Sounds good. Bar bet. Love it. All right. Next, we have a matchup in New England. Cincinnati is in Foxborough.

Let's see where we're at. This one's been bet into a little bit. Looks like we have, for the most part, threes. FanDuel is still at three and.5 on the Bengals side there. Let's see where our total has moved to. We're at 41.5, basically across the board, which is interesting. Again, absolutely insane way to lose a football game last week. That will ensure that the Patriots do not make the playoffs,

which is really fitting considering how the playoffs and the season has kind of played out. I don't think any of us want even, again, I don't think we want to watch New England in the playoffs. So I think this works out fine. We'll have some hopefully better football teams. At least the Chargers can find a unique way to lose in the playoffs, and they'll do it with a little bit more exciting forward pass type of offense

than what New England has currently. It's just been an absolute mess. Bengals went to Tampa last week, won their sixth straight, spotted the Bucs 17, and it didn't matter. They did not look good doing so. But with the win there and the Ravens' loss to the Browns on Saturday, it gave the Bengals a one-game lead in the AFC North. Baltimore won the first head-to-head matchup against the Bengals.

The other game is slated for week 18, so that'll matter to solidify that. But again, Cincinnati just continues to roll in the back half of their schedule, which is pretty hard. But this one is interesting to see the movement. Again, this was getting up to four. It's bounced back New England's way. I get it from a situational standpoint, Connor, but I'll let you start with this one. Yeah, I go back and forth on this one. I mean, this is notable too, because it's another freezing game, 17 degrees, 15 mile per hour winds supposed to make it feel like three degrees. And I don't really think that like we, so I think it's important to talk about this, like probably now with so many games at Bacton weather, I talked with Paul, so I talked with Chris Allen, like cold temperatures don't necessarily matter for totals, but I think it does matter. And something that they found statistically to be true is that teams

tend to run the ball when it's colder a little bit more. So I think, and in this, in this week, particularly, I think that matters in certain situational spots because there are certain spots like this one specifically, where I think it would be very advantageous for the Bengals to go really pass heavy and like light up a secondary that has proven to be massively overrated and that can't hang with anyone good. Um, but the issue is it's going to be three degrees and it's Zach Taylor. Like I'm fully expecting them to line up under center and hand the ball off as much as possible. And so that's what concerns me while laying in with the three of the Bengals. But I do think that there's a path here where they win.

Um, cause the Patriots have been really good against running backs in cincinnati on the other side has been with dj reader back fantastic on as well on the ground so like i almost want to lean under but the total is already 41 and a half and if the bangles do go past heavy i mean they could score you know 35 themselves so like it's really one of those things that maybe it's best to wait maybe it's best to live bet it um personally i still lean towards cincinnati at three but uh i think live betting is probably the way to go for me. And it's not a significant movement considering the total opened at 42 and it's only 41 and a half, as you said. I'm not too worried about it. And we're back to the splits we've seen in the past with the Patriots and that when they play above average quarterbacks, the Patriots defense becomes a below average unit

against Tua, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, and Kirk Cousins. They allowed 28 points and 5.9 yards per play. Just couldn't stop anything and don't matter at all. Whereas when they get to play Zach Wilson twice, Sam Ellinger, Mitch Trubisky, the list goes on and on. That's when they're a top five defense. So it's another situation where honestly,

if Zach Taylor, who's always the caveat in every single thing with the Bengals, like lets them throw it, they put up 35 points in this game. That's why I think it's a really good DFS game. And honestly, like the Bengals should cover, but will they cover? I really don't know.

Having said that, I still lean the Bengals late in the line. Yeah, as I mentioned, the situational spot too, New England catching Cincy, back-to-back road games, again, a little bit late in the season this can kind of add up just new england i don't know in any scenario that they have the offense to hang it's the worst red zone offense in the league i just don't think they have the firepower to hang with any iteration of zach taylor's offense and i don't think they have enough to slow down chase, even when they want to try and do so.

I feel like Derek Carr slowed down Devante Adams more last week than, than anything. So yeah, I think the Bengals at three, I think is probably the right look. I just, I don't have, I just think Cincinnati is a legit contender and I genuinely don't believe

that new England's a playoff team. And in that scenario, I don't want to get too nitty-gritty. I think three is probably the right number to hammer on the Bengals here. So I'm with you. I think the cold matters. I kind of agree that I think there could be some upside in DFS here. I think props might be something that we see take a hit to this week, Connor, where people are reluctant to get into some of this stuff

because they're concerned about the weather. Maybe stuff opens up at a median number where it would typically be. And there's some buyback based off of reaction to cold. And maybe we see some opportunities to get in on some overs on some elite players, which I know is not your cup of tea. I also like hearing that we think running is going to happen more because that tells me we could probably hammer some linebackers in the tackle streets. So I'm going to find ways to utilize this information, this fear of the weather and stuff. And hopefully we can all make some money.

I luckily got limited on Jack Sanborn last week. Otherwise I was texting Connor, trying to get as much as humanly possible down. And then of course he's well on his way to doubling the mark and he got injured. Goodbye, sweet Prince. I are doubling the mark and he got injured. Goodbye. Sweet Prince. Uh, I are for the season for Jack Sanborn.

So I will say one game, I get in on the tackle props. I will say this for the people that are new to the tackle information. We do more of this on Friday, uh, for our prop show, because that is more prop specific. Oftentimes on the prop show,

it is speculative based off of projections and matchup data. Cause we don't always have information. New England is one of the biggest scorekeeper splits that's out there. They are very stingy to the road team, but they are very generous giving assists out to their own players. So Jawan Bentley is a look that we're probably going to have in the tackle streets. He's the only New England linebacker that even really touches 85 to 90% of the snaps.

We'll be looking for Jawan Bentley. Uh, and hopefully Zach Taylor agrees and sends Joe mix in his way, uh, solid 2025 times. So look for that on Friday on the prop show. The Patriots trying to cheat, never would have saw it coming.

It's actually fair stuff in the stats for their own guys is totally totally what they're doing here so you actually think that belichick would want them to not do that so that when they have they get to like arbitration or they get to like the negotiating table you'd be like you only had 60 tackles he's like yeah because you guys don't give any assists it's just a solo tackle so you actually think you know ninja, he'd do it the other way. But all right. Giants on the road in Minnesota is our next one here. Let's see what our prices are at. Our lines are at for this one.

Where are we? Am I not seeing it? Oh, here we go. Four and a half. I'll actually shop it because we're all over. Fandles at three and a half. Caesars at four. Four and a half on DraftKings. So, again, you're kicking around, you know, over three and between seven,

but I think a little bit that can matter. 48 is basically the total across the board. 47 and a half on FanDuel, if you want to look at there. Both clubs coming off of pretty unique and surprising week 15 wins. This could be a preview of a first round matchup, which is interesting. Both teams comfortably in the playoffs as of now, which is crazy considering the Giants' injuries and the roster that they've dealt with all season long.

They can officially clinch a playoff berth here with a win and losses by two of the Commanders, Lions, and Seahawks, which is reasonable. Commanders are in San Francisco. Seahawks are in Kansas City. So we could definitely lock that up here, which is, commanders are in san francisco seahawks are in kansas city uh so we could definitely lock that up here which is again wild they can even lose this game and they still have a 71 chance of making the playoffs according to 538's playoff projection model so clearly

minnesota on the other side one of the worst if not the worst 11 and 3 team of all time and a clear sell come playoff time um and this spot sets up well for them though. They're catching New York on the second leg of a back-to-back slight rest advantage as well, playing on a Saturday afternoon versus Sunday night for the giants. And then they're traveling again. Connor, let you get started with this one. Yeah, this is, uh, an interesting spot because like we look at, like when I first looked at it, I was like, Oh, this is like, this is a great play on the Vikings here because they're getting a Giants team that really struggles, you know, against the run, especially on early downs. They're able to lean on that specifically.

But then, you know, I kind of dug in a little bit deeper and I looked at, okay, well, he's matching with the Giants. The Giants love to do a few things. They play man coverage at the highest rate in the league. They blitz at the highest rate in the league and they get pressure at the sixth highest rate in the league. These are three things that Kirk Cousins plays horribly against. And so, you know, we kind of look at like, we, we got beat on that a little bit with the Patriots early in the season, but the key difference is that the Patriots don't blitz.

They just get pressure up front and, you know, they play a ton of man coverage, but their defense has been good enough to kind of hold that. And as we talked about, they're a little bit fraudulent. Now you're getting a Giants defense that does really all of those things well. And I think that this game is almost a little bit more similar to like Miami rather than, you know, like, like New England. And so we saw against Miami where they blitz his face off. They played a ton of man and he was fine, but he wasn't good. And so I think in this spot here, I'm not saying I'm taking the Giants

because I think the Viking secondary is very beatable, but I do understand the movement from like, you know, four and a halves or whatever it was to like three and a half at this point. So that's kind of my concern about this game for the Vikings. But I will say if they lean into the run and they go like extremely run heavy,

like Dalvin Cook could absolutely smash and take advantage of this to the point where they don't need Kirk Cousins to like throw for 300 yards. They just need him to like kind of manage the game. And I think that you can do that against the Giants team that still isn't necessarily good.

They just kind of match up against some of his weaknesses. So I go back and forth. I think there's a ton of props that I want to play in this game, but there's nothing that I really love on the side of total perspective because the total seems about right.

The spread seems about right. I'm certainly not laying, not taking the points with the Giants here even though I think that might be the right side I do admittedly worry about the fact the Vikings had to run you know 86 plays um against the Colts this past week and now are trying to turn around yes they're at home at least but still still, I mean, how many times have we cited that this year where 80 plays is kind of the threshold where we expect a drop off immensely in both plays and performance following week. So yes, you have to get pressure on Kirk Cousins. That's key here since even the Lions, like top five in man coverage just a couple weeks

ago, and Kirk Cousins still spiked him for 420 passing yards. Lions also a heavy blitzing team, but against him only blitzed him on 23% of his dropbacks. He still averaged just three and a half yards per attempt because he's averaged just over five yards per attempt against the blitz this year. So sure, we know the Giants don't change up their defensive schemes. They are going to blitz his face off.

It just comes down to getting pressure. So I don't have a lean either way. I think it's a very volatile game it would not shot me if it the total score went under 40 it would not shot me if it went over 60 so i genuinely don't have a lean here i have such a hard time handicapping the giants because i'm like i never know how they get there like how does it happen like i don't even remember like came on debito like great strip sack and all like they just they do these little things the timing of when they do it is is pretty wild it's just everything else like all the things that you look at like they're we talk a lot about early down success rate they're horrible defensively

early on success rate like week in and week out and they just kind of scrap it together on third downs they force you into some third and longs and they make plays. And yeah, it's just a really tough team to handicap. I would love to fade both of these clubs come playoff time. We're going to have to bet on someone in the NFC playoffs. Like we're going to want to fade the NFC South winner as well. Probably like we're going to have to find some teams to bet on in the playoffs, but yeah, I don't have a great feel. I think my initial lean was it's too short for Minnesota.

But like it shows you the range of outcomes with the Vikings. It's really tough. Like Viking fans are going to tell you they don't give two shits that they're the worst 11 and three team ever or that they Taylor early in the game, spot them 30 points, 33 points. And then like, have us have to take you seriously. Like we can't do that. You have to do things that are like look elite. And I know that the Giants are set to be in the playoffs, but like put your foot on their throat and show us that you belong.

And we have to take you seriously come playoffs. And I just don't know that they can do that. So I'm with Dangle. The spectrum here is, is wide open. So Minnesota has also been a really good first half team. So maybe they get off early. That kind of would like buy into the situation stuff too,

around the giants travel short week, all those things like maybe a Minnesota lean in the first half, but I'm not taking any full game stuff here until I see a little bit of what's going on. I do dislike, though, how the Vikings deserve credit for the comeback, but also it should be attributed more to Jeff Saturday being one of the league's worst coaches. I mean, this dunce, a 33-point quarter two weeks ago,

followed by literally the NFL's largest comeback allowed in history. They had 13 red zone plays, no, 15 red zone plays, and ended up with three field goals to one touchdown. The Vikings, for instance, had two fewer red zone plays than the Colts, ended up with four touchdowns, no field goals. It's like the moment they got up by two scores, that's when Jeff Saturday started running Zach Moss on third and long, and you could see it in the second quarter too.

They were giving up. They were like, we will take these field goals, even though all they were doing was making a two-score game, a two-score game, a three-score game, a three-score game. They were literally trying to stay the same, have the same lead for every three possessions. It was wild. And so you could kind of see it coming from a mile away that the Vikings would definitely get a chance to record that win.

But even then, you go back and look at now, they're still only an 11-win team. It's 26th in DVOA at Football Outsiders. They are a joke, but they have 11 wins. So congrats on your first round loss. Good job. They're middle of the pack to bottom and yeah. And everything they're the worst. Like I think the other team to DVOA, like they don't have, they don't do anything particularly well. Hey, they're 11 and three. Yeah. I just can't like, I mean this Colts team specifically, I just can'tts team specifically i just can't get over i just

can't get over that loss like they were playing not to lose not playing to win and that's like the biggest definition of what dago's saying like kicking field goals when you need to go for it like things that don't make a difference they just look good on the you're just padding your stats basically you're not really making an impact your win probability or any of that that actually matter so they're a joke um and, and, but I also do think that this Vikings team is really fraudulent. I mean, I don't, the way that they got to that game was like, if it was like punt block, it was like, you know, like picks bad plays. Like they were playing so poorly. The game plan was not good. It was just like a disaster in the

first half. And some of it was luck, but some of it was just like really bad in general. And the fact that they willed themselves back for that was uh wild i mean i i had turned the game off at one point i was just like all right time to go to the gym you know whatever it's 36-0 and then obviously started storming back and turned it back on so i drove to my in-laws in the middle of it because i was like well i feel like this one's kind of in the bag um and we survived an under four and a half tackle prop against 87 plays so uh that bodes well for you, Connor, and your desire to chase unders on the tackle side, because that was a sweat we didn't need.

You've bet like three unders, I think, and you're at least two for three right now, right? I mean, you've got to bet more. You had 10 unders. How did they do last week? Did you look at them or no? You had like 10. I haven't yet.

We just took one. You took one. We hit. We need to convert you more more unders the better more 21 and six the last three weeks chasing overs we're gonna keep doing that i know i know i know you love your overs and they're way more fun to root for there's so much more fun to root for um overs have to be better for linebackers as well right like we say unders for the people taking hits but what about

the people giving hits the injury odds have to decrease right so over everyone outside of jack sanborn apparently well outside of the one time i bet yeah rest in peace yes yes there's a lot there's uh linebacker overs are are fun because you can sometimes we're cashing those in the first half and you're like, you know, it's the best. So, yeah, we'll get there. We have some ready to go and ready to fire. Projections are in the bag this morning. We're ready to go for this week.

Next, Seattle on the road against Kansas City. This has moved everywhere to 10. There were 9.5s available for most of the week so far. 49 is the total. 40 and a half on FanDuel. Just shut it down here. Kansas City played with its food a little bit last week. It let the Texans hang around.

Still eventually, obviously, they pulled away. Secured their seventh consecutive AFC West crown. A streak that the three of us all thought was coming to an end this season. We can erase the AFC West preview from the files here. But again, here we are. Pat Mahomes, MVP favorites, Chiefs in contention for a first round bye. Yet again, just nothing else seems to matter as long as Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reeder

there, this team is going to be more than relevant. They lost the head-to-head meeting early in the season against Buffalo, so they will need to win out and get some help in order to get the first round by. But this home game against Seattle is basically the toughest remaining matchup on their schedule. Bills have to travel to Cincinnati next week. So top seed very much in play still for the Chiefs. Seattle on the other side stumbled a little bit as of late,

short-handed here with Tyler Lockett set to miss some time after breaking his finger, Connor. Give me your thoughts on Seattle getting 10 in Kansas city. Yeah, this was at nine earlier. Uh, I think today at one point, and so it looks like I got a little bit of movement there. And I think that 10 is about right. Cause like, I think that Seattle's offense at full strength would have a decent amount of success here. Uh, but right now just one in three out of their buy. Now I've been going on the road in Arrowhead supposed to be six degrees, feel like negative 10 degrees of game time with wind chill of 10 to 11 mile per hour winds. I mean, again, just absolutely brutal. Like this is like a horrible environment to play in, but if you're

getting like normal weather, you know, the total right now sitting like 48, 49, like is way too low. I mean, if these teams will Matt like shoot out like easily if, if the weather was normal here, but I'm worried, like, I feel like Pete Carroll's going to go in there, jam the ball until they're down 21. And I mean, maybe the chiefs just don't step on the gas pedal, you know, if they get up. And so that's my only concern with this game, which is like crazy that like the weather matters at all here. But like, I mean,

negative 10 degrees is just like so insane. It's hard to fathom. Like I, it has to make an impact on the coaching level, not necessarily a player's level, but I mean, it might like some of these guys might not be ready for how cold it'll be. So if like all things considered,

I still think that probably lay in the 10 year with the chiefs makes sense, but I'm a little bit worried. The Seahawks also allowing 28 and a half points per game since they're by the last four weeks, 5.9 yards per play. Gino Smith with six turnovers in that time. And now we have Ken Walker banged up and no Tyler lock in this one on the other side of the ball, Patrick Mahomes, at least 320 yards in eight of his last nine games. The one outlier being the Bengals, who, of course, always stop the Chiefs.

And so I would actually think it's an easy cover for the Chiefs if, like you said, Noon, in the past couple of weeks, they're in the time of the year where they're bored. Like, this is what they do every single year. So, like, to only win their last two games, four points, six points. It's like, okay, well, I don't want to lay the 10 points here, even though the chiefs are the easy side to take. So I'm staying away, but I don't worry about the weather personally. And I don't worry about the chiefs offense. Hard to worry about the chiefs offense. They haven't given us really any reason

to do so. No, dude, they're so they're so so they're so good that was my biggest mistake in fantasy is thinking that tyreek hill plus travis kelsey's age would like regress patrick mahomes and this chief's offense that have scored on 47 percent of their a touchdown 47 percent of their drives since he became a starter and uh it's not they're actually like the best version of the patrick mahomes offense we've ever seen. You have to wonder if maybe Kelsey was dinged up a little bit more than we knew last season. Because it was fair to have that thought, I think. I mean, you're taking out Tyreek Hill. And then like, it wasn't Kelsey. It was not even the Kelsey that we're seeing this year at the end of last year, right?

So like, I think there were reasons to feel like there were some concerns. And maybe we could be on the wrong side of the age curve but like they've just kind of just buckshot with the rest of the wide receivers and just thrown it off against the wall and see what hits and now like everyone's finally healthy and like i don't think we feel great about any of them but like juju is really kind of who we thought he could be is essentially another kelsey on the other side where he's a chain mover they have enough guys that they can rotate on the outside to make some big splash plays. And obviously my homes is a talent elevator. So it really doesn't matter who those guys are. He can make sure those guys come in and hit the ground running. So, yeah, it's really interesting how like, you know,

Tyreek was almost like a luxury for them to the point where if that another team was kind of able to stop him, like they didn't know what to do if Kelsey wasn't able to get open. And now they like kind of already had that speed bump earlier in the year, you know, like with a couple of times where they're like, okay, well, what do we do now? Like who moves the chains, who goes deep? Like, you know, but they figured all that out. So at this point now there's so much more multiple that they have like five, six guys that they can go to on any given play that they feel good about uh that it's just like impossible to stop in my mind so um yeah it is it's just insane how this is shaking out and like at this point like i feel like we were very wrong about the chiefs coming into the year and i'm okay with that because we're seeing just like incredible football part of my concerns too with the defensive

side i mean i thought the secondary would really struggle they haven't been great but they've been good enough and luxurious needs a good football player and good enough to kind of slow down your top guy. And I've been able to generate enough of a pass rush to, to kind of compete. So go ahead. And to be fair to Tyree kill, his complaint was that he wasn't getting enough targets after seeing a career high 9.4 per game. And this year he's seeing 10.9 per game. So he was right. He wasn't going to get up targets. He was right. That's working out. So I'm kind of with you, like 10 feels like too much, but it's like, it's still to me, Kansas city or nothing here. Uh, I just can't see enough firepower for the Bay or the, uh, Seahawks to just go in there

and kind of hang, especially without Lockett, who I think really matters. And I do kind of agree with Connor. I would not be surprised if they try to take the air out of the ball and, and slow things down here and don't have success and maybe just kind of deflate the play volume and stuff just in this entire game. So Chiefs are nothing for me, but kind of stay away for now. And Goodwin does not replace Tyler Lockett. We don't turn this volume for Lockett into Goodwin's volume. Noah Fant has actually been targeted the second most with Lockett off the field this year, but Noah Fant was a DNP on Wednesday, I believe.

So just a lot of touch and go situations here. The Seahawks are unfortunately falling apart and they're not going to make the playoffs, which is unfair because they should with how well Gino played through the first half of the season, but we're definitely going to lose them in the playoff picture. Yeah. Uh, and then we also had a question here from Ricky Seahawks under a good look this week on the team total looking at like 19 and a half on the team total. For me, that's just a little bit too low. If you're able to get it over 20, I think that'd be fine. But fine but uh i think 19 and a half even given the injuries like the chief's defense right now

uh i believe you're looking at 25th against the pass 18th gets the run in dvoa so i mean they've been fine but i wouldn't say that they're a stout enough unit for me to really feel good about you know going under 19 and a half there because i think 20 would be a solid look I think if you like Seattle at all this week you probably take their team total over to be honest because uh in any scenario where they're playing competitively um the Chiefs are going to score I mean Seattle's 31st defensively in DVOA on third and fourth down that you just you can't really compete if you can't get off the fields and no shocker the Chiefs offense is the best on third and fourth down the best offense in the league uh but obviously they're best when it matters and that's really where seattle struggled this season so yeah i

just can't imagine them slowing them down if they are getting in a spot where they're competitive that keeps the chiefs kind of locked in all game that's the seattle team total over for me even if you think the chiefs are the side here so So be careful with that one, especially on the wrong side of 20 even. I would watch it. All right, next, Philly and Dallas. Let's see. We're at here. Obviously, lots of movement here.

Basically, five across the board. Four and a half in MGM and FanDuel. 47 is the total. Again, FanDuel, 47 and a half. They like to stay on brand. This is going to be the noteworthy game of the week regardless, but obviously the Jalen Hurts injury and the market fallout on Monday because of it was

obviously very interesting to watch. Hurts clearly injured his shoulder in the second half against the Bears. Tufted out like a boss. But now we have Nick Sirianni playing a bit of cat and mouse here. Choosing to not rule him out for this one quite yet. I don't believe that that's the case. I think we're going to see Gardner Minshew here.

We also have Dallas, their collapse against Jacksonville really was a gift to the Eagles. That game really helped make this one kind of not matter and gives them the flexibility here to do really what they want. Eagles are still very much the favorite to be the top seed in the NFC, regardless of the outcome dallas is all but locked in to the five seed and playing on the road against the nfc south winner in the first round uh which would be a nice matchup for dallas as long as they can get healthy

they're kind of beat up in this one as well they had some injuries to some key players especially in the defensive side last game um so they're going you get kicked off with minshu mania for a week i think i think the market movement from the eagles as one and a half point dogs to six point dogs is the worst movement we've seen since aaron rogers was out and the line tilted six points for jordan love who ended up covering that game. We watched that game at your house, Noonan, because that's the game that a couple years ago, Steve Spagnuolo blitzed one time, saw Jordan Love look at him as if he was in Vietnam and ran terrified for the rest of it. But one throw, a touchdown to Devontae Adams, I believe it was, was all they needed to cover against that bad Chiefs defense.

This reminds me of that. Trevor Lawrence, yes, is a number one overall pick previously. Went over 300 yards because he's playing lights out since week nine. But you can also attribute his performance to this terrible Cowboys defense that is now suffering an injury cluster. Safety Jaron Curse, middle linebacker Leighton Van Der Esch, nose tackle Jonathan Hankins, two of their three starting corners in Anthony Brown and Jordan Lewis.

Like all these guys are going to be out this upcoming week. And it tells me that Gardner Minshew will have no issue orchestrating just a better team and arguably a better offense right now against the Cowboys. Not to mention Dak Prescott, nine interceptions in his last six games. The Eagles lead the league in interceptions so I'm I think the highest it will get is six points you said it's around five five and a half right now right I'm I am eating the points and I'm taking the money line because the Eagles are the better team and once Gardner Minshew wins this game we have to remove Jalen Hurts from MVP talk it is no longer him because Minshew wins this game. Put Patrick Mahomes on that board forever at number one.

I don't have a problem with that. Can we also remove Nick Sirianni from head coach of the year? I know Conor's got top three on his list. We did that eight weeks ago. Stop it. He is Nick Sirianni. Did we? Nick Sirianni is a lock to win coach of the year, and it is not close.

It is a lock. I will put any amount of money that Nick Sirianni wins. The talk of other coaches winning is an absolute joke. He is going to win coach of the year far and away. It's not close. Like anytime I see a dude and I know you've got coach of the year. I think that was a good luck. What was it?

Dable 36 to one or something like that. It was like, yeah, 28, 38, 20, 25, whatever.

I mean, you can convince me about anything like 20 to one or higher. I mean, it's like, you know, that's fine. And I, I agree with you by the way,

like, okay. And this is actually going to lock up next year on his coach coach of the year because i agree daigle they're going to win because so i bet i would balls deep on a few things on this news that jalen hurts is not going to play first off people are like oh he practiced him fully yesterday no he didn't it was an estimated practice that's just like simply not true he's not uh yeah he's not playing gardner minshu was at mike leach's funeral so he wasn't even there like gardner mitch is going to start we're going to see this line climb up to six maybe six and a half but six um I took a bunch of Cowboys two and a half on this news I'm going to hedge back the other way with Philly plus six because the more I dug into it Philly's going to run the ball and they're probably gonna run the ball well and then when they have to throw the

ball Minshew's gonna have success uh and their defense is still more than good enough to give the Cowboys problems uh you know all across the board especially with jordan davis coming back playing better run defense uh like their pass even playing better dac has not you know really lived up to the hype he's been turning the ball over too much so i like the eagles to maybe not win outright but definitely cover the six once it gets there um so yeah and nick sirianni will if they do win 100 lock up coach of the year. Without a doubt, he'll be like minus 10,000 after this game. I think Sirianni is, I don't think he's the best coach of the year. I think he's going to win coach of the year.

He's a loaded roster in a Charmin soft schedule. And my only issue, part of the hole I was trying to poke was that they closed as the favorite in the division. And they are going to do that. And typically, Coach of the Year oftentimes is exceeding expectations. Now you can make the case that 16-1 or whatever comes of this, 15-2 is exceeding expectations. And I will join you on that venture. And I am cheering for you to get cashed out on your great future.

So I'm not pulling for you to, to lose your future. I thought that the betting market was off in terms of where the market was post, you know, Sunday, um, in the way things had been looking and some other outs I thought made. So I thought, again, just kind of getting some money down and some other spots made sense. My argument was that Dan Campbell, who literally needs to win out to make the playoffs, should not have been by far the second choice in the market,

whereas you had the Brian Dayballs and even Kevin O'Connells upwards of 30, 35 plus. And they're in the playoffs. So that's why I thought there was a need to get down on some stuff. I like your Sirianni position. I'd be really surprised if it doesn't win. Yeah. I mean, also too,

I think something to consider with what you were saying there, their win total opened up at eight and a half. They were plus 250 in the division when it opened. Like they closed as a division favorite, but their winter will still only close like nine and a half you know they're gonna win 15 games and not to mention beyond that like this is that you're playing the washington generals this is a the nfc east like

is a division in the media space that they're like oh like anyone can win the nfc east like you know like it's not like uh it's not like uh oh like they're a massive upset or like you know they're the heavy favorites the e Eagles are the firepower. Everyone loves the Cowboys. Everyone loved, you know, like they thought that the commanders, you know, I guess only Dan Snyder thought the commanders could win. But you know what I mean? Like it's the NFC East is very volatile. I thought that I think he's going to win.

Like, I don't even know. Whatever it is before this game, I'm going to bet it again. And I'm going to bet it again next week at minus 10,000. Just to say that we were here and that we talked about it. I'm agreeing with you. I'm just telling you that the rest of the market is off. And I think these markets are so subjective anyway, which is why I typically don't dabble in them.

Like comeback play of the year is the most ridiculous thing in the world to me. What are you coming back from? It's just subjective. So I don't mess with them. I just felt off comparatively. So Dagle saying that he thinks Sirianni shouldn't be coach of the year, I think is what he said. And that's fine.

To be fair though, I think all candidates are fraudulent. If you told me to pick my two this year, it's probably Shanahan since like, he's the one coaching three different quarterbacks, to what the Eagles have to lose out, of course. But if the Eagles were to lose out, then I think you have to strip Big Sirianni and give it to Shanahan,

because then the 49ers would have a chance to be the number one seed in the NFC instead. So I think Shanahan's a good live bet, honestly. And as you mentioned, if the Giants get into the playoffs, it has to be Dable. Like no other coach, literally no, not even Shanahan, no other coach would have taken the Giants to the playoffs this year. It's all him. No one else. They can lose this week and they still have a 71% chance of making the playoffs.

The Giants are going to the playoffs. It should be Dable. Dable's done the best. Like Vrabel last year, Dable has done everything with absolutely nothing. They, they might not even resign Barkley and Daniel Jones. I'm still convinced they don't want either player. And did you hear Chris Collinsworth slobbering over his microphone on Sunday

night to talk about Brian Dable? I mean, this is, this is how this award is measured. Like these are the, these are the dudes voting for this award. And it's just like, Oh my God. Like, ah, did you say he just just loves him and he's not alone because dagle's right like he is

doing more with less more than anyone else that team is not a playoff team um and i think other guys on the staff deserve credit um the defense isn't good like but like they're getting it done and uh it's very easy to have Dayball be, you know, he came in as that, you know, analytics. He was tied to the bills and all these things. And he's been kind of that dude. And I think that 25, if it's still north of 20, I think is worth a sprinkle for someone that maybe doesn't have a Sirianni

ticket, wants to hedge their Sirianni ticket. I think Sirianni probably wins. I think Sirianni is a good bet. Obviously chasing and laying Sirianni now comparatively to where Connorni probably wins. I think Sirianni is a good bet. Obviously chasing and laying Sirianni now comparatively to where Connor was at, you know, preseason is not advised, but I do think Connor wins at the end of the day, but I think that the market was off as we said. So I will be, I will say this now that if, if the, or the Eagles lose out or, you know, whatever Sirianni doesn't win coach of the year year which is basically what it would take for him not to i will be suing the chicago bears and we'll burn the city

down just you know letting that know uh you know because i blame them for injuring fucking jalen hurts and driving his shoulder into the ground and getting him hurt so you know what uh you know fuck chicago if that happens you know enjoy your three win season and we'll be cashing our under five and a half win tickets because a bunch of worthless bums. Can I piggyback the lawsuit? Who hurt Jack Sanborn? Yeah. I mean,

that's what I need. Same game. It was just a criminal enterprise going on in Chicago. Not surprised that I'm with you guys. I think that Eagle's money line is a great look. If we can get to six, man, if we can get to six and a half,

I think we see some buyback if it starts to happen. This is not touching seven, but yeah, Philly, Philly alive, considering like Dagle lined it out. I mean, the Dallas defensive cluster injuries, I think, are maybe not more important than Jalen Hurts, but like, man, like they are not representative properly in the line movement. And I think that they needed to be accounted for. And I think sometimes you just see steam and people chasing steam and it

creates more steam. And now we get to a spot where actually the fair line is off a little bit because everyone's just trying to chase the Jalen hurt stuff. So, uh, sharp of Connor to buy back out of that position once it, uh, kind of settles a little bit here. So quickly, any other looks? We had a question in the chat about the Bears and Bills. If anyone had any thoughts on that one.

Another game obviously going to be impacted by the cold here in Chicago. It's going to be freezing. This one's dropped down a little bit. Again, it's mostly 8.5 on the Buffalo side. There are nines out there still total down to 40 and a half. I don't know if either of you gentlemen want to take the floor and have any bills, bears thoughts.

I think the bills are a very nice teaser. Like especially at eight and a half, you can get them back under the seven and under the three. I think the over is an interesting look. I mean, 40 points is like nothing like, and these teams don't necessarily even need to have success through the year to hit over 40 points.

Like, I mean, there's bears run defense is horrible. Like they sold out to stop the running. It's the Eagles. And, you know, obviously the Eagles just killed them in the passing game. Uh, I don't imagine that they do that here because the bills are not quite as much of a threat on the ground, but if they don't do that, I mean, the bills are going to run all over them. So, you know, they still can run the ball. Well, it's just not quite the same as Eagle. So I think we see well over 40 points at Justin Fields is obviously just an unbelievably dynamic athlete, uh, who will continue to find ways to score even with all ads stuck against him, no receivers, no offensive line, and I mean, marginally decent game plan. So I think the

over here is a decent look. And Luke gets the, and Justin feels both know he's 207 yards shy of the NFL record for rushing yards by a quarterback. Both of them have talked to the media about the record. I think they're going for it in the next couple of games, which is why I don't think Fields will be benched. And honestly, against a Bills defense in nearly as cold of weather on Saturday night that allowed five explosive carries to the Dolphins, why can't Justin Fields have over 100 yards?

So, yeah, I do think like, I'm not worried about Justin's floor in this game, but I don't have a lean on the total line. Man. So stupid. Why are you running this kid out there? Like he is all you have. Have it.

What? Let them have it. It's fine. He gets there. They have three more games and they're gone for all for an entire off season. Just let them go for it. I don't think it's fun.

I'm cheering for him. Uh, man, for it. I don't think it's stupid. I'm cheering for him. Man, I would bubble wrap him and tuck him away and be very, very, very smart. It's a success for the Bears, if only because you know what you have. You know when you build an offense around him and call it correctly, he's a special player. So we have a coach that figured it out.

We have a quarterback that's developing and call it correctly he's a special player so we have a coach that figured it out we have a player a quarterback that's developing and figured it out i hope they go like josh allen with the bills and that the offseason for allen that's when they added stefan diggs as like the best deep play receiver i hope the bears only get deep ball specialists this offseason um who cares about anything underneath like justin fields only throws deep only go out and get deep ball specialists this offseason um who cares about anything underneath like justin fields only throws deep only go out and get deep play balls receivers that's it and uh we'll make it work in 2023 that's what i said noonan disagreed no i don't disagree i don't i think deep ball receivers are smart i'm saying because i think you can get some guys that are cheap to do that because i agree like they like to take a like deep shots i think just lean

into the run both of the offensive line it's never the right play but if you go ahead and you add a saquon barkley or a dynamic rusher behind him all of a sudden you have the best rushing attack in the league it makes it better for saquon it makes it better for fields you just lean on this and this is your thing and And then when you take shots, you take shots deep with whoever else you decided to add, you know, Mooney, Claypool, whatever that is, whoever they can add to that mix. Instead of trying to like be someone you're not, bolster the offensive line and the defense,

maybe invest in the running game and get a dynamic runner. And all of a sudden the offense is, is very unique and hard to game plan for. So I think that would be an interesting look for the bears as well yeah i mean i think it'd be fun my oh my worry with that encounter is that they don't have like a good enough defense to do that so it's like and it's such a slippery slope that it's like for sure even in the falcons though the falcons have backed their way into the playoffs just by running the ball over and over again and being a very unique team to game plan for because teams aren't used to seeing that now you have a better version of

Mariota you have a better version of you know Tyler Algier um it becomes a pretty interesting interesting unique team that's that's definitely fair it's like my worry is like they become like Lamar pre when he learned how to pass the ball it's like he can he come back from anything back from anything? Like they fall down 10 points. Like, what do you do? And the answer was like, try and throw, can't throw. They just are screwed. And then the game's over. I mean, that was like basically the result for a little while, but yeah, like you said, like fields is also a different kind of player. So, you know, he can at least throw the ball deep. Uh, now at this point it was just, he's ahead of where Lamar was at this point, at least in my opinion. He's more like RG3 to me, right? And you had the RG3 years, like RG3 could chuck that thing deep.

But, you know, he made Alfred Morris a dude simply because, you know, the lanes that you have to cover and account for for a rushing quarterback. That's an interesting question. I think RG3 is better than Fields, to be honest, at this point. RG3 was awesome, but I mean. He could at least throw the ball. It was one year. Yeah, that's the thing RG3 was awesome, but I mean. He could at least throw the ball. It was one year. Yeah, that's the thing.

Fields, I think, is equipped to handle the load a little bit more. RG3 was frail. Yeah, that's true. Like Devonta Smith legs. Yeah. Quickly, any other looks you guys want to capture before we take off? I have a larger card for this week. So I'll just quickly go in order of confidence.

Um, most confident in the Eagles money line bet. And again, I think it's, you can get it at six points. I'm definitely on that. I like the Texans plus five and a half points. I don't know what it's moved to actually with a Malik Willis,

three and a half across the board. Oh, okay. Well, I got it Monday at five and a half. So I at least got the EV. But you look at the last month, even with Ryan Tannehill for the Titans,

15 and a half points a game, four consecutive losses. Whereas the Texans are fighting for Lovie Smith, even though the organization is absolutely going to scapegoat him and fire him at the end of the year. But didn't allow a single offensive touchdown to the Browns three weeks ago, despite losing that game by two scores. We watched that one at your house, Noonan.

And the last two weeks, four-point loss to the Cowboys, six-point loss to the Chiefs. So, like, honestly, it's not hyperbole. The Texans are the better team right now. And so I understand Derrick Henry rushed for 200 yards in four consecutive games against Houston. I don't think it matters because Derrick Henry is also playing differently right now. So, yes, I like the Texans a lot to cover that game. I bet the 49ers, I laid

the seven and a half points against the commanders. Brock Purdy the past two weeks leading the league in completion rate under pressure. And a small sample, yes, but he's just playing within the structure of the system. And that's all he needs to do in this game, especially considering Taylor Heineke is 27th completion rate under pressure 31st in yards per attempt under pressure you know this 49ers pass rush that's about to get to them um so i think washington's playoff hopes basically die this week traveling cost country against the 49ers and then i also have i talked about dolphins laying the five and a half five in some cases you can get it and the lions Lions, Panthers over for a bar tab.

And I think those are my five bets this week. Yeah, that's what I'll lay. I think the Niners are another great teaser leg, getting it through the seven, through the three. Yeah, great look too if you want to combine that with maybe the Jags, maybe with the Bills, something that, that we talked about, uh, earlier,

Connor, anything that you want to highlight before we wrap? Honestly, not really. I guess most of the ones were in, you know, the show that we talked about today with, you know,

the bar tab. I really liked the, uh, I think Bengals minus three is a solid look. Um, I think that the under in the Jacksonville, uh, jets game is interesting.

Uh, probably play some teasers. Like you mentioned, I thought there was some fantastic teaser legs you just talked about there. So like that aspect, just in general though, like this week is absolutely vile. You know, there's like two, three games

with a total over 48 and a half, like nine games of a total of 41 and a half or lower. So I would say this could be an awesome teaser week actually because you're looking at games with lower ranges of outcomes uh and so getting like above the seven long teasers here are gonna you know break or bust some people but i think it's this is a great week to go back to even though they've been letting us down for most of the year yeah this uh christmas day slate is you know afternoon games of uh denver and uh and the rams and then tampa and uh trey m of Denver and in the Rams and then Tampa and Trey McSorley in

the evening is just a real, do not watch them real barn burner. So Hey, NBA watches some NBA basketball instead. So you get a, you get a hot dolphins Packers game to start your day. Turn it off after that one. Do not watch NFL football.

Do not promote the product, but subscribe to four for four. Do not watch NFL football. Do not promote the product, but subscribe to four for four.com and keep our jobs for four.com slash plans promo code next level. Again, through the end of February, it gets you access to everything on the site, all of Daigle and TJ's DFS stuff, all of the bets that we have, um, articles, tools, et cetera. So good stuff as always sign up as well. Uh, he is forcing me to do a christmas eve morning chat so we will be there for everyone for the saturday slate christmas eve morning 10 45 a.m eastern talking to everyone there you go big prop boys showing up on saturday morning uh i don't know

y'all don't run a strict corporate like TJ does. No, I don't know. We'll see. We'll see. That's a deal. I mean, yeah, 50-50. Nunez is a family man. He's got kids to tend to. I have nothing, but I'll be in the Discord regardless.

I'm going to start pouring Manhattans at 10 a.m., screw everything. Yeah, I might be in there. We'll figure it out. My wife knows that's still the clutch time, is you know pre-main slate and i told her sunday this week is saturday babe so you know you can we can do whatever you want afternoon but uh you know pre pre-lock there we need to you know make sure we're getting uh the dfs lineups in getting all the bets in because sometimes the tackles don't come out till 90 minutes before when the, the, you know, final injury report comes out. So got to hang for those.

So good stuff as always gents reminder. We'll be back on Friday for the prop show 2 PM Eastern on this same channel. There is a chat. It looks like a 1230 Eastern week, 16 Q and a with Jon Paulson. If you want to jump in there, get your questions. If you're still grinding in the season-long space, Paulson can help you out there. Dagle's got lots of stuff.

You guys still Friday for the DFS show and then Saturday for the chat? Or when's the DFS MVP? Friday afternoon. It moved to a time. I don't know what time, honestly. It moved to a time on Friday. I think we're going earlier. I can't remember what time, honestly. It moved to a time. It moved to a time on Friday. I think we're going earlier. I can't remember the time, though.

I didn't change into my phone, which usually means 24 hours later, I will not remember the time. But I'll be there. I'll always piece it together. And then we'll be there Saturday morning. So, yes, everything's still happening, including for Week 17 and Week 18 as well. And the playoffs.

We'll be there for the playoffs, too. playoffs. We'll be there for the playoffs too. Yep. We'll be here for the playoffs as well. Pro show through the playoffs, do the Superbowl. A reminder for this, the Q and a live stream with Paulson on Friday at 1230. Eastern is for YouTube subscribers only.

So you have to be subscribed to our channel to be a part of that. And it looks like we got reports that the DFS MVP is three 30 Eastern. Thank you. Changing my phone right now. We're ready to go. So good stuff as always for Connor and Dave. I'm Ryan. We'll see you next time.