Move The Line - FREE NFL Picks for Week 17

Episode Date: December 28, 2022

Free NFL Picks for Week 17! Betting experts Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan & John Daigle share their top NFL bets for Week 17 of the 2022 NFL season for FREE! Join them as they divulge the best odds and lines so you can get the best number at your favorite sportsbook! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro7:11 TNF Bets11:18 Saints-Eagles16:42 Dolphins-Patriots21:50 Jets-Seahawks26:16 Bucs-Panthers33:19 Vikings-Packers39:25 Bills-Bengals48:08 Final Betting Thoughts49:34 OutroWant a FREE 4for4 Betting Subscription? Deposit $10 into a new BetMGM account using promo code 4FOR4 👉🏼 https://4for4.com/go/BetMGMSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow John on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/notJDaigleVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TbYo4X4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea

Hello, welcome to Room of Life, right in and joined here by my friends, Connor Allen, John Daigle. Daigle, I'll start with you. You're fresh off of another show. You're rocking and rolling, and we're still here in the Chicagoland area. I'm struggling. I got a cold. This is definitely not my flu game per se, but I'm on the struggle bus here with our crazy weather. But I don't want to tell Connor, it's going to be like 50 degrees here in a couple of days, maybe even a couple hours. How are you doing, bud? In a couple of weeks, actually. We went through the Christmas weekend where it was negative degrees.

I went out on Tuesday morning to finally try and start my car again, forgetting that there's no way in hell it's going to start if I don't keep doing it over the weekend. So, of course, I didn't have a car on Tuesday until I could find someone to help me jump it. But, yeah, now it looks like it's going to be 50 degrees for the next couple of weeks, including over New Year's weekend. So I, like you, a couple of weeks ago, went through the eight days of just being absolutely miserable with something, even though, I mean, I tested for flu, but who knows what was going on.

Immediately got another boost and a flu shot after that, just in case. But yeah, Connor's gone through it too. Producer Sal's not even talking behind the scenes because he's sick as well. It's just the time of the year where everyone's getting some shit. I thought I was feeling fine this morning woke up feeling good you sound like hell actually the more you talk yeah that's what i said yeah my eyes look like i just got done uh you know hanging out with uh connor with the black and milds uh and a wiz khalifa concerts um or a mac miller right connor is that what we're doing these days we're not

doing regular concerts anymore. I'm sorry. Yeah, rest in peace. I was educating Noonan and Luis earlier on stoner rap, you know, from our high school days, you know, Wiz Khalifa and Mac Miller. And they were telling me they listened to Dave Matthews' band, Tupac and Biggie.

So that just shows the generational differences there. Mac Miller is more than stoner rap or was more than stoner rap, to be fair. Just listen to swimming. And that's why whenever he started touring last, he was playing with an orchestra, because like Childish Gambino, he grew into an

adult artist, as opposed to just a kid rapping about his sneakers. So yeah, give him a little more credit than stoner rap. But Wiz Khalifa is definitely stoner rap. Yeah, heifa is definitely stoner rap. Yeah, he's definitely more than that. But that's kind of how we started with like a few bangers, you know, plus the infamous Donald Trump song, you know, from his early days.

That was a good song until he became president. But another topic for another day. Stoner rap from my time, it was just straight up actual stoner rap, which is a little different. I don't even know if that counts, but hits from the bong, just really good, hardcore. I don't know. So Digg is kind of in between us, but I'm not quite sure if he's following.

I've always appreciated hip-hop culture a lot more, but I grew up on – I listened to a lot of clips growing up, which was like previous to Neptune's album. It was, gosh, not Cisco. It was, oh, I can't even remember right now. There's so much going on, but yeah, a lot of clips. What else did I grow up on? Bun B and UGK since I was in Dallas.

And that was, of course, was Houston rap. Sal says Apro Man is also, of course was Houston rap. Um, Sal says, April man is also hip is also pot rap, but yeah, I don't know. Lots of hip hop did not come here expecting to talk about hip hop culture. Otherwise I would have been more prepared. Yeah.

Shout out Cypress Hill. Uh, these young guys will never know. So, all right. Um, live every, every Wednesday,

we're going to do our best to continue. We're going to go all the way through the Super Bowl here, talking about our favorite games on the board, taking your questions if you're hanging out with us on YouTube. Subscribe so you don't miss a show. Let us know what your favorite Week 17 look is. Jump in the chat. We really appreciate that.

It goes a long way. We'll let you know, too, we have two episodes of Move the Line each week, both available to stream on YouTube, both available in podcast form as well, wherever you consume those podcasts. This is the game preview. Move the Line prop drop is every Friday at 2 p.m. Eastern. Pat Mayo joins Connor and myself. We go through our prop plays for the week, also on the YouTube channel as well. Also have a unique YouTube channel, 444Bets, has unique daily content there too. You want to to subscribe check that out too our nba team is contributing over there uh we'll kind of turn the dial up on college hoops here in the next little bit still doing mma lots of other great

stuff too also great time to jump in to a subscription if you're just kind of hanging out with us you can soon move the line we really appreciate that appreciate that 444.com has a betting subscription um the betting subscription gets you access to everything on the site. You will get all of Daigle and TJ's end of the year DFS content. Again, along with all the other sports, all the tools, literally everything you can go over right now, 444.com slash plans. It is $34 through the end of February. It's basically $34 for two months of content all the way through the Super Bowl. And again, you get all the other sports as well. So 444.com slash plans to check that out. Just two weeks to go. We are entering motivation season. I think we need to, I think, offer a little bit of context here, pump the brakes on forecasting. Motivation is safe to assume that is almost always already

baked into the number. And in most instances, you don't know more than the most liquid market on earth. I think if you got a guy named Sully on the north end who has a buddy who used to play pickup ball with Tom Brady's trainer back before they moved away, who is telling you like, no, you don't know more than what's going on in a very liquid market. In the NFL, this stuff is baked in, and we've kind of already seen some stuff, even in the last, like, four or five hours, on how the market is kind of moving with some of this stuff. So I assume it's already accounted for.

Seating, wide open on both sides. AFC side, the winner of the Celt is still to be determined. Next week's Titans and Jags game is really going to decide that, and we've seen the Titans kind of react to that. We'll talk about that in a moment. Neither team's going to really benefit from a win this week. The Jags do have a shot at the final wildcard spot. It's really a small chance though. So handicapping them is going to be a little tricky. Maybe we'll get to that at the end. For the most part, we have three AFC East teams, Patriots, Jets, and Dolphins battling for the final wildcard spots. Seating at the top of the bracket very fluid though still so I think motivation there is already built in uh play

it as it lies on the NFC side five teams chasing the final two wild card spots uh Giants basically just need to win and they're in uh South is still wide open we have again a really important Panthers Bucks game looming largest week we'll talk about that too. So in a bizarre weather week, as Daniel said, like a juxtaposition of last week where we had weather concerns like half the spots, freezing conditions, wind issues. It's going to be nice everywhere. Unseasonably nice across the board. Even Green Bay, who is going to be playing, you know,

basically a night game, early evening. It's going to be still in like the mid to upper 30s in Green Bay this week. No one is getting freezing conditions. No one's getting any wind that we need to consider. So let's jump in real quick. Let's talk about this kind of shifting game on Thursday night before we dig into the rest of it. Dallas and Tennessee.

Tennessee, nothing to play for, has started to kind of announce some starters are going to be benched. Looks like it's continuing to move. We basically are out to Dallas, 10. Looks like it's continuing to move. We basically are out to Dallas 10 and a half, even 11 in some spots, total down to 40 as well, which is absolutely crazy to have an NFL game with a team laying more than 10 on the road, a team that might be in the playoffs. But, you know, Dallas should be going full out here.

They have an outside chance at the NFC East title. They play on Thursday. Again, they don't have the luxury of knowing what's going on in the Eagles and Saints game, so they have to really play to win. Connor, we've kind of seen what's happened with the Titans. Yeah, I personally think that Dallas here at 10, if you can still grab that, I know there's a bunch of 11s out there, is still a great look because we're looking at Malik Willis getting another start, most likely here behind just an awful offensive line. I mean, Malik Willis has done

essentially nothing to prove to us that he's a competent quarterback in basically any way, shape, or form. Tennessee will not have Derrick Henry in all likelihood. I mean, he's doubtful. I didn't expect him to play regardless. I don't think he will play. So we're looking at – I mean, Malik Willis is going to have to do some heavy lifting here against the Dallas defense

that while it's still banged up, I think can still make plenty of an impact here against the Titans offense that's really struggled. And the Titans run defense has shown a little bit of cracks with some of their injuries as of late. But we've also seen Dallas, when they face a tough run defense, they can go really pass heavy and just dominate through the air. I think this is kind of a great spot for them to do that. And in this specific spot here, I think that we could see there's a ton of passing from a team like Dallas here. We saw it, I believe it was early on in the season against Tampa and other specific spots as well. So I think that this could be a good spot for the Dallas passing

offense to a certain extent. I think the Dallas minus 10-year is a great look. I just don't see how Tennessee moves the ball that well, to be entirely honest. And we're already seeing among those scratches you talked about, Noonan, that not only Derrick Henry listed as doubtful and not going to play, but Jeffrey Simmons, Imani Hooker starting safety, Bud Dupree in the front seven, not to mention Dylan Cole, Zach Cunningham starting linebackers also out for this game already. So it's really just genuinely a game where the Titans won't push back. And it's really, you have to test Malik Willis out because he's your starter in the playoffs if you win in week 18 you have no choice but to keep going with

him so I think they're going to let it fly and no matter what happens we'll see but even with Dallas's injuries which can mostly be attributed to why Trevor Lawrence went over 350 and three touchdowns why Gardner Minshew had such an easy day through the year. Even with those injuries, it's still the fact that Malik Willis is completing 50% of his passes, is taking a sack for every 7.5 dropbacks. I get upset when people call him a rushing quarterback because he's not that either. He's nothing. He doesn't bring anything to the table whatsoever.

So I just can't understand how we have any amount of faith in a Titans offense that's averaged 15 points per game in their last five games at all. Yeah, you can get a team total over on the Cowboys, like on the right side of some key numbers, 25 and a half. 26s are out there too. If you're looking to short the Titans, it's basically 13 and a half across the board. MGM has a juiced 14 and a half, juiced to the under, which makes it a little tricky.

You'd probably want to attack the Cowboys side here too. I mean, they could very much show up and play with their food here, but I would expect them to have all systems go even on a short week here because they have no idea what's going to happen. And they really, again, they're locked in for the most part at the five seed. But again, there's an outside chance that they can get that one and you have to kind of play for it at this point. So I imagine that they do so. I'm with you. It's hard

to really look at anything with the Tennessee side and feel really good about a Malik Willis-led team. The Cowboys needed five different things to happen last week and it happened. So you play first out of all those teams. What are you doing? You're playing to win. Because again, it just takes the Eagles losing out. There's only two more games left, the Cowboys winning out, and then a Vikings loss and a commander's loss. I think it is. So of course, like they play first, they have to play to win. It's as simple as that. All right. So we'll move on to the weekend slate here and talk about that next game with new Orleans on the road in Philly. Uh, let me look at where we're at here. Basically a draft Kings down to five and.5 on the Philly side.

Sixes for the most part across the board. MGM's still 6.5, so an interesting, very narrow, but middle opportunity there. 43.5 is the total. 44's out there, so you can shop that because, again, that's a key number. 43.5, 44, so depending on what you're doing. As wild as it sounds to the Saints, win out. If the Bucs lose to the Panthers and Falcons,

the Saints are your NFC South champs. They are not dead, which is insane. Eagles suddenly in need of a bye here too. They have injury issues popping up all over the place. Obviously the Jalen Hurts issue is the biggest one. Lane Johnson, Avante Maddox, both out this week as well. And hopefully they get that bye and they can get healthy for a playoff run. The Hurts issue is the biggest one. Lane Johnson, Avante Maddox, both out this week as well. And hopefully they get that by and they can get healthy for a playoff run.

I think the Saints are in trouble here. I think the Eagles can show up and put them away. There's also the added element where the Eagles own the Saints' first-round pick in April's draft due to the Chris Olave trade last year. So the Eagles help their draft position here by beating the Saints, as strange as that sounds, Dagle. So give me your thoughts here. The five and a half is very interesting to me. I've not seen that until literally I said it. And it's hard to know what weight to put into the Saints defense, considering their last two games, they played not only Deshaun Watson, but in weather, one of the few weather games that actually mattered that everyone's concerned about this past week.

And then the week before in Desmond Ritter. So you can't really weigh those contests. Before then though, Tom Brady, even 280, two touchdowns. Jimmy Garoppolo scored a couple of touchdowns. Matthew Stafford also had 150 and two touchdowns before he got knocked out of the game. So they have been leaking a little bit in the month prior to their buy. And so at seven, which is what the last time I saw the number on Wednesday morning, I was interested in it. But at five and a half, I do think that's too close to call,

considering right now ESPN's Dan Graziano is saying he still doesn't believe Jalen Hurts plays this week. And when and if Hurts returns in the playoffs, even the Eagles are not sure how he's going to perform. The Lane Johnson injury is the biggest one. Like Lane Johnson was top five in ESPN's pass block win rate, just individually at tackle. And so now without Lane Johnson's at least through or until the playoffs, I don't think it's as easy as a matchup as the Cowboys was suffering an injury cluster

for Gardner Minshew this time around so I'm skeptical of that number but five and a half still too small for me to play in either direction personally cluster injuries in the secondary too I mean we're still waiting for um CJ Gardner Johnson to come back and now Avante Maddox you're losing two safeties here too so I know that Gardner Johnson is trending back soon I think he can come this week. I don't know if he is going to or not, but I think he is eligible to return off the IR. But again, this is kind of why this is starting to mount here, but it doesn't even matter against the Saints team who's really just been kind of, you know, finding interesting ways to keep themselves alive. Yeah, I guess my kind of take here, I think that's very fair on the Philly side being super banged up is that that the Saints are just such a bad offense, like such a bad offense.

And I really don't think that they're good enough to really expose these Philly weaknesses that we saw Dallas expose here. I mean, I think this is also a massive letdown spot for the Saints. 2-0 out of their buys, you mentioned, against the Browns in the Ice Bowl and the Falcons. I mean, this is just significantly stiffer competition defensively. And Dalton, he played terribly in those games as well. Like, it's not like he was good. So I don't know. I think that this is a decent spot for the Eagles here.

I know they have a ton of injuries. I thought Minshew was fine. You know, he played well at times, played poorly at other times. You know, it makes sense. But I think he's good enough to get the job done here. So five and a half I'm interested in. I think that the Eagles win here by probably six to seven. So five and a half is a big deal. I didn't think we'd see that. But yeah, I understand it. Yeah. Saints have been skewing

more and more run heavy as the season's gone along. Since week nine, though, they're among the bottom 10 teams in pass rate over expectation, but they're very different from the other run centric offenses and by different i mean bad um unlike the falcons bears panthers teams that are like really committed to the run they're doing so successfully the saints are dead last in run dva over that time frame 31st in epa per rush so like they're trying to run more they're just not doing it very well the run defense on the other side is also kind of sputtered down the stretch too. So I just think they're going to have a difficult time scoring here. And if they're going to get to a spot where they're covering this number

or beating the Eagles, you're talking about the Saints having to get to like 24, 27. I don't know. Like, I don't know. I feel like the Eagles are going to be able to move the ball and score. They did so last week with Minshew, who obviously is a step back. But like, I don't know. I feel like the Eagles are going to be able to move the ball and score. They did so last week with Minshew, who obviously is a step back. But I don't know. I think he's still okay considering all the other weapons they have. So, yeah, I think the five and a half is really interesting.

And they let him throw. Sanders had 21 carries, but Minshew still had the seventh highest ADOT in the league, over nine air yards per attempt. He was just slinging it. So, yes, there were turnovers that were his fault. But at the same time their offense still moved the ball i agree so yeah draft kings five and a half i think is uh

is a a really really live look so next we have uh miami on the road in new england's uh looks like we have threes across the board kind of um basically minus 105s across the board on that three as well total 41 and a half at one point miami sitting at eight three threatening the bills for the division lead since then lost four straights i need to win one of the next two against divisional opponents to make it in the playoffs dynamics in this game have obviously changed drastically in the past 48 hours or so. Tua, yet again, concussed. Thankfully not playing this week. Very uneasy situation overall.

It's really hard to talk about. I think the next week is going to be really interesting, like what happens if Miami doesn't win and they need that Jets game. It's a very interesting topic with the Tua scenario. We'll cross that bridge when we get there. This week, it's going to be Teddy Bridgewater, under center for Miami on seasonally warm conditions, as we talked about in Foxborough.

Against the Patriots team, who we've poked holes in, I really do think that their defense isn't quite as good as the metrics would tell you, but they really showed up in the second half against what appeared to be a buzzsaw Bengals offense early in the game. It was 20-zip quick in that one. And they really slowed them down in the second half. They're dealing with some injury issues as well. New England on the defensive side,

especially the secondary, but Dane, I'll let you get started with Miami. Burrow actually had the most completions in any half by any quarterback this year in that game, went into the locker room with 280 yards and three touchdowns. And I wonder if it was Patriots defense catching up, if it was second half adjustments without Lyle Collins, who got injured in the first quarter and Hakeem Adoniji came off the bench and actually finished bottom four in the league and pressures and hurries allowed at his position at right tackle in place of Collins. Also, I will go right back to the same splits I had last week

and not worrying about the weather and still saying, as you mentioned, Noonan, like this Patriots defense, when they play above average competition, they are horrible. And now we've seen against Tua in week one, Lamar, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Kirk Cousins, and Burrow last week, they've allowed over six yards for play and over 28.5 points per game to those six matchups. I honestly think the Dolphins scheme, which had struggled because Tua's poor play the last month, I think the Dolphins scheme is still better than the Patriots defense. And so I'm actually backing the Dolphins points here,

thinking they're going to put up enough to outscore the Patriots and went outright. I'm not betting the money line, but I do want the line for the Dolphins right now. Get the three. All right. Interesting. Connor, what are your thoughts here on Miami, New England? I go back and forth because this game is tough because New England's defense has been pretty solid at stopping the run. Like, as you mentioned, their, their secondary has been exposed. But against, like, pure running backs, not running quarterbacks they've gotten, you know, eviscerated by, but just, like, pure running backs, they've actually been pretty solid.

And so that kind of leaves, not necessarily leaves Miami one-dimensional, but it puts a little bit more pressure on Teddy to be successful in the passing offense to be successful. The last we saw from him was horrible. And at least, you know, from what I remember, it was a pretty much outright disaster. And so now we're getting a Patriot secondary. Again, like, like Dago said, I don't think they're necessarily good, but if we look at those splits, we look at like, what category does Teddy fall into? Does he fall into the first category, the second category? I'd say he almost certainly falls in the second category,

given what we've seen. But like you said, the scheme is good enough to probably have him be reasonably successful. But again, you're essentially almost only betting on Mike McDaniel. That's what you're betting on. That's fine, because I think he's proven to be good enough. But for me, I think it's kind of an underlook here, just in the game as a whole. And unfortunately, when I was looking at it, it was 42 and a half, now 41 and a half, with two officially out. Because I also think that New England, like Miami's weakness defensively is their secondary, is their pass defense. Like, do I have any faith in the Patriots exploiting that?

No, like zero faith. Like, I think they're probably going to run Romandre a bunch. They're probably just going to, you know, continue to be suboptimal as they've been all year. So I think that it can, the game can get drawn out. If Teddy ends up putting points, They end up having to go pass. That's certainly within the range of outcomes, but I just don't think that that's the most likely outcome here

given these offenses. Yeah, it's a stay away for me. I think the two and a half in New England side was interesting. Out to three I think probably would lean Miami. But again, like, I don't know, we just haven't seen anything from Teddy that's super encouraging too. So, you know, I just wonder what's going on too locker room wise when you feel like you're scuffling, you lost your leader, you know,

you got to kind of, you know, win one of these games. They do benefit, I think, by going to New England and having, you know, pretty nice weather, which is not, you know, what you typically see when that schedule pops up. You're like, oh, Miami's going to go to New England on January 1. That's not going to be a fun trip for them. But I think they benefit here too. So probably lean Dangle's side at the three, but stay away from me.

It'll be interesting to see kind of where this is lined at minus 105 everywhere if those two and a halfs come back. So they were there this morning, which is interesting, on Wednesday morning. All right, next, the other team in the division that is still fighting for the playoff spot is the Jets. They are in Seattle. And this has moved quite a bit with the quarterback news here. Across the board, we have the Jets' one-and-a-half-point favorites.

42-and-a-half is the total everywhere as well. Zach Wilson era looks like it has come to an end for the Jets. Mike White back this week just in time to try to salvage any remaining hope that can uh propel the jets into the playoffs seattle the same boat neither club can secure a playoff spot with a win here but the loser of the matchup is comfortably making vacation plans for wildcard week they are not going to find their way into it if they don't take care of business here so um tyler lockett looks like he's trending back. Good reports today at practice on Wednesday for Lockett. That definitely helps. Again, very difficult matchup on the outside against this Jets secondary, who is, I think, the best unit in this game. We've really seen kind of a backward slide from Seattle, really across the

board, but they need Lockett back, I think, to have a chance here. Connor, what are your thoughts on the Jets being short road favorites here going across country to Seattle? Yeah, I kind of like the Jets here, which is how they match up, especially getting Mike White back. I mean, he just makes such a massive difference from being able to do the little things really well. And I think exploit a Seattle secondary that has really struggled over the past month. And the run defense has been just absolutely brutal. So it just gives them another kind of out to lean on. Like if they want to go run heavy, they can do that.

They can be successful. But I also think they probably have success passing the ball with Mike Whiteback. And then the other side of the ball, their secondary, I think is good enough to, you know, go toe to toe with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett. As you mentioned, you know, Lockett lines up plenty in the slot as well. They move their guys, you know, a good amount. So like, I don't think we're going to see like a sauce shadow or anything like that. But I think it'll be an interesting matchup but personally i would lean jets at under three even

on the road here and i'm not high on any particular props for the jets like the seahawks only jerry judy have reached 90 receiving yards on this on the seahawks all year and that was in week one uh they are still prone to completely shutting out wide receivers in particular from the boundary despite allowing the second most receiving touchdowns 11 from the slot where elijah moore will be but overall it's just a fact of what is happening with the seahawks in the last month of the season since week 12 allowing 27.6 points per game and the fourth highest passing touchdown rate in the league and getting Mike White back because we know he averaged 43 pass tenths per game we know the Jets

were actually an above average team 13th highest pass rate from neutral game script and those three starts from Mike White so they're going to throw the ball a lot Seattle's been failing to covering the throw since week 12 thus I do think the Jets get it done here just with enough points on the board to sneak by and win. And as you mentioned, yes, consecutive wins and only one Patriots loss needed over the next two weeks for the Jets to come out with a final AFC wildcard spot. Yeah, and even if the Patriots take care of business

against Miami, they have Buffalo on the road next week in the spot that Buffalo needs. So a tough path for New England to put themselves in that position because of the Raiders game. So they don't deserve to be in the spot that Buffalo needs. So a tough path for New England to put themselves in that position because of the Raiders game. So they don't deserve to be in the playoffs because of that alone, unfortunately. But interesting to see how the rest of it shakes out. There are paths.

There's a really difficult path for the Jags to actually win. The Steelers are actually alive, believe it or not, with some of these other losses if a bunch of teams lose. The Steelers are still kicking around back there if they take care of business the last two. But it seems very likely that it's going to be one of these AFC East teams. So I'm with you guys. I do think that the movement towards the Jets and Mark White makes sense.

I do think that they are the better squad here. Again, I think they have the better unit. I think that really matters kind of with the way these teams are playing right now, even if Tyler Lockett comes back, which I think is the only shot that they really have to even compete here. So tough sledding for Seattle and tough shakeout considering how well they were playing early in the season. But hey, Geno probably back for them next year and you know uh they're built uh to contend because they are going to make do of all of the broncos woes um that they have through the draft in that terrible terrible trade so they have some nice draft capital there to to take advantage all right

next carolina on the road in tampa bay we've seen some movement here since the opener. We're down to three across the board on the Bucs. 40 and a half is the total. Panthers really dominated the Lions in the trenches last week on both sides of the ball, which to me was surprising considering that's really been Detroit's strength and I think has really been at the heart of their second half resurgence, especially defensively. They have been really stout against you know running backs and um they really just got kind of dominated last week when it originally happened i thought the panthers win and how they dominated the box in their first meeting was probably one of the stranger outcomes of the season at the time i still believe that tampa would figure it out now week week 17, we're still waiting.

I just don't have any faith that Tampa Bay is figuring anything out at this point. This line was six in the look-ahead market, reopened with fives. Those quickly vanished. But this game has obviously huge consequences. Tampa Bay locks up the division with a win. Carolina, with a win, puts themselves in control of the division heading into their week 18 matchup against the Saints here. Connor, I'll let you get started with this South matchup that's really important this week.

Yeah, I think it is worth noting that the Panthers underwent a bunch of changes here this season. Obviously, they changed from Baker Mayfield to eventually Sam Darnold now down the stretch. But Panthers with Matt Rule this year, 1-4 record, dead last in offensive EPA, 13th in defensive EPA, with Steve Wilks, 5-5, 18th in offensive EPA, 12th in defensive EPA. Some of that obviously can be attributed to Mayfield. But, I mean, Darnold's been playing well, don't get me wrong. But, like, I think we kind of know that, like, I mean,

we have a multi-year sample of Darnold being, like, a bottom five passer. And so, like, Mayfield was definitely, like, a bottom three guy. But, I mean, it's not like-year sample of Darnold being like a bottom five passer. And so like Mayfield was definitely like a bottom three guy. But I mean, it's not like Darnold is significantly better. So Steve Wilkes is out there, you know, coaching his ass off. And I do think that this is interesting because I believe they'll be without J.C. Horn, if I remember correctly. And the Bucs keep winning despite being so horribly bad.

Like and for me, this kind of reminds me of like Tom Brady's final year in New England where they like, everyone was like, oh, their offense will pick it up. Like at the end of the year, they'll be fine. No worries. And then they face Tennessee when, you know, shit hits the fan, they can't pick it up. They don't do anything.

And then they just lose the first round of the playoffs. Even though they had a great season as a whole, like just really, I mean, he was thrown to nobody and he had way less weapons than he does now. But like, for me, I just have such little faith in this Bucs team that it scares me, you know, laying the, I believe it's, what'd you say? Two and a half, three at this point. So I don't know, honestly, I like, I think that they probably get it done,

but like, boy, like the way with the way Carolina is playing and something, sometimes we've seen from them, like it's really tough for me to back this Bucs team who consistently puts themselves in holes and just constantly digging themselves out of shit. The Panthers have become a strong running team with Sam Darnold. Darnold has not turned the ball over in his last four games since under center. That's been the biggest key here, whereas Brady the last four games has seven interceptions and two fumbles. He's been a disaster. The Buc bucks are also 28th in points per game averaging 17 and a half points per game they haven't reached 24 points in 10

consecutive games the bucks are a joke i understand they could keep winning but they are so bad that they are literally if they lose out they have a top 10 pick in the nfl draft like that's how much they just don't matter at all so given how the Panthers are playing five yards per carry, also in leading the league in run play rate with Darnold under center, I actually do think like they are in a much better position here and they are the better team. So I've actually bet the Panthers early on in the week, a much tougher matchup even last week, as you said, well, even two weeks ago, the Steelers, they ran well, but against the Lions that hadn't allowed over 75 yards to any player since week eight. And then for both Chuba Hubbard and Deontay Foreman to reach over 100 in the first

half alone, like, dude, the Panthers are playing so well right now. It's literally two separate teams that are living in the NFL currently. So I like the Panthers with the points. All I know is the Cowboys are salivating over who they get to go visit in week one of the playoffs. Their path is quite nice. So I do think that the turnover situation with Donald is worth noting. I think that is key. It's obviously part of his struggles early in his career in New York, was turning the ball over, fumbles along with the interceptions, and they are protecting the ball.

I think Steve Wilkes is coaching his tail off for a chance to really be considered for this job full time. They haven't been really good, though. I think Steve Wilkes is coaching his tail off for a chance to really be considered for this job full time. They haven't been really good though. But again, like someone's got to represent the division in the playoffs is why we're talking like the saints are still alive here. Like no one really wants to be this division winner. No one really should be taken seriously here.

There's a lot of name value and brand value associated with the bucks. Cause there's a lot of pieces that are still there from the Superbowl on both sides of the ball so we're waiting for all this magic to happen it just doesn't happen at this point they still want to run the ball they're terrible at doing so they're 30th in rushing offense DV away they're 31st on first down they continue to run heavy on first down uh ineffectively and it's putting them in really bad second-in-line situations. Mike Evans is just, it's just not happening. The Chris Godwin stuff is, he's basically Jamison Crowder. It's a lot of low A-dot stuff. It's really nothing that's, you know, challenging anyone vertically.

I think the JC Horn injury matters. I just don't know if it matters enough to have me not lean on the, the Panther side here. i would love to see if there's any movements kudos to you if you got anything above the three because we were all three across the board now um you know getting a hook here getting something outside of that would be pretty interesting to me total even feels low but it's also like to dangle's point like i don't really know that the bucks are in a spot where they're pushing anyone offensively like they're averaging less than what their team total is here right so like you know i think teams those across the board like game totals are really low because i think

we're gonna have better weather than i think what we're expecting so this might not be the best spot to get it but that feels a little short to me as well i wouldn't be surprised the bucks are also allowing four and a half yards per carry to opposing running backs. Like I don't think they're the best defense for this matchup either. So no, I really liked the Panthers in this game. What's a Vita Veya status right now? I think that, I mean, that also matters on Wednesday. Yeah. I mean, if he's out, like they just got wrecked, you know, like they're, they're going to keep getting wrecked at this point. Like literally Dan Campbell after the game last week, like went up and was like, you kicked our ass. Like you beat our, like beat our ass in the trenches. And they did, it was like straight up murder in the trenches, which is insane.

Because like you said, that Detroit has been playing crazy good defense, uh, at least against the running game. So I was just like really surprised to see that. And, uh, I'm impressed with this Panthers team. So yeah, I think it's certainly Panthers are nothing for me. I can't, I can't bet on the bucks at this point, given what they're at. And thank you for the bar tab when you get back from Mexico. I do. Yep, yep, yep. You choose the spot.

Well, actually, no, we're not going to like Alinea or anything or any like crazy place like that. But we'll go somewhere reasonable. It's going to be an Irish bar. It's fine. All right, next, Minnesota on the road in green bay uh this one's basically three well no shop around um fando's gonna juice three so does points bet uh three and a half is out there as well on the green bay side 47 and a half 48 and a half of the total so again shop around draft kings down

there at 47 and a half which feels light It's actually a minus 105 as well. So they are definitely tempting you if you like an over position in this game. Look, the Packers, we talked about it too with the Cowboys. The Packers ran hotter than the sun last week. Even on Saturday when they didn't play, everyone that they needed to lose to keep their playoff hopes alive, obliged. Then at Christmas Day, they definitely benefited from a dinged-up Tua in the second half. Vikings still have positional seeding to play for,

even though they've locked up the division. Kevin O'Connell has stated publicly that they are going full force the next two weeks. They want the two-seed. They want the chance to be at home for as many games as possible in the playoffs here. Connor, I'll let you get started with this one's rematch from week one. These two teams are definitely playing different football right now,

even though one of them just refuses to lose, no matter what the scenario. Yeah, it's pretty wild. I mean, Green Bay, three and a half point favorites, despite being on the outside looking in, I guess, for the playoffs. But the way these two teams are trending, it totally makes sense because Green Bay's offense has been crushing as of late. Minnesota's defense largely struggled. This Vikings team, if we look at kind of their – like as a whole right now,

they have a plus-five point differential on the season. They are 25th in total DVOA, 19th in offensive DVOA, and 22nd in defensive DVOA. So that's like less efficient than the Steelers, Bucks, Raiders, and Giants by the numbers, and their defense less efficient than the Texans, Titans, and Dolphins. So, I mean, you're getting a Green Bay team that's kind of – that's been ascending.

I think that they got a little bit lucky with the two-injury last week who was crushing in the first half and played literally the worst football of the season, second half. But still, I think this Green Bay team's hot. The offense is rolling, and they get a great match against Minnesota here. My issue is that I would love this at three. There are still a couple of threes that are a little bit juiced. Three and a half, I don't like as much.

Maybe I'm just getting in my own head with the hook here, but I do think the Green Bay is this high. And I know some are worried about motivation here. You mentioned at Noonan, if the Eagles win in the first slate of games then when the vikings take the field in the afternoon it matters a little less for seating but at the same time we know the vikings are going for justin jefferson's 230 receiving yards they're going connell said they're playing to go to go they want they want the two seed even if they can't get the one and they want justin jefferson to not only get offensive player of the year they

want him to win mvp too but it's not to happen, but he is going to get the 230 yards to get the record. They all talk about it. And so they'll be fitting in the ball. More importantly, it's funny too, because yes, like the Packers, top seven and success rate, EPA per drop back since week 10, they are a more efficient offense,

but they're still as slow. And thus, even efficiency doesn't matter for props doesn't matter for fantasy Aaron Rodgers still looks like the same player like you can't you can't play him in props you can't bet on him in fantasy because like they're still just like a bad offense like they're they're more efficient congratulations doesn't amount to betting whatsoever really uh and then we see on the other side of the ball the Vikings like we tried to do this with Dalvin Cook last week and where we think okay it's a good matchup but it doesn't matter because the Vikings don't change their plans for the matchup so yes the Packers are allowing over five yards per carry one of

only four teams doing so but it doesn't matter that Dalvin Cook now has averaged three and a half yards per carry since week 11 whereas the last three games the Vikings know it and they're averaging 48 pass attempts per game they're not even trying to run the ball anymore. I don't blame them because they can't. So I do think, although the Vikings would logically do well in running the ball, they're not going to do that given the record and everything else I explained. So yeah, I kind of do think the Packers play themselves into the points in a win here. Dalvin Cook last week in the first quarter, six carries for 40 yards the the rest of the game i believe you ended up with eight carries for uh 20 yards absolute death uh you

know horrible horrible uh sounds like someone had ladders on dalvin cook last week it was it was rough yeah i mean i they're just totally different teams that green bay past defense has been really good too since week nine they're second in past ddvoa so like they are slowing teams down a little bit but we all remember what happened in week one when they matched up we were all dying to figure out why in the world o'connell was able to get justin jefferson on linebackers and safeties all game right so like you gotta, you got to think that they are going to try to do that again. You got to think the green Bay is ready to adjust for it. If they are not shame on them, they are going to not be in the playoffs and they will deserve to not be in the playoffs. If you can't find a way to scheme, you know, Devondra Campbell in the slot against

Justin Jefferson is not something we should see on Sunday, but we might, because we saw it a week one. The last three weeks as well, Vikings have ran the fifth most man coverage. They've altered their defense completely, trying to cover up and mask how bad they are and allow explosive plays, and it hasn't mattered at all. So we're going to get some – I talked about props not mattering, but just the splits between if Christian Watson goes and Alan Lazard,

both who have been amazing against man coverage this year, like those are ladders I think I'd be interested in. But other than that, yeah, Aaron Rodgers, not much for me. On the tackle side, this is one of the hardest ones for me to project plays in this game because we have the Vikings that are giving up the most plays per game on average on the season. Then you have Green Bay who definitely refuses to push the pace and they are very slow and methodical um so there's it's like the push and pull of like who's going to be able to take advantage and then look back at week one they both had 61 plays so probably be right around the middle of the pack it's definitely very off from where they are and where they've

been trending as of late so uh interesting to see how that one kind of shakes out. Depends on, I think, game flow and who's in the lead. All right, next, Buffalo on the road in Cincinnati. I think this is going to be a great end-of-the-week game here on Monday nights. We have Bills, a short road favorite here. Basically a one-point favorite. There are some one-and-a-halves out there. 49-and-a-half is the total. Both clubs and the Chiefs have a path towards the top seed in the AFC,

so we're going to get their best here. Both clubs really keep winning, though we haven't really seen their best as of late. I mentioned earlier the Bengals got off to a great start in New England. Couldn't really do much in the second half there. Saw the same thing kind of in that Tampa Bay game the week prior where it felt more like Tampa Bay giving it away than Cincinnati running away and taking it. You can really see the same for the Bills. They trailed the last week at

the half against the Bears. They really haven't dominated anything since the Josh Allen elbow injury. I feel like now is the time. It's kind of a playoff game in a sense. I'd like to start to see a little bit of the upside that we're going to see here. Either way, great football game to kind of put a cap on the week here. Dago, I'll let you get started with the Bengals and Bills. And we saw it again with Josh Allen just forcing throws in the first half against the Bears. Stephon Diggs, no first half targets. Bears end up with a end zone interception in the first half as well,

but they at least proved their versatility. And probably a lot of it can be attributed just the Bears being literally the league's worst run defense since week nine, whenever Robert Quinn and Ruquan Smith are off the team. But also like the fact that both James Cook and Devin Singletary, like that they ran for over 250 yards, that average over eight yards per carry tells you the Bills can get it done in a variety of ways. Whereas, as I mentioned earlier, I'm still worried about the Bengals' pass pro in this game. I'm worried about Zach Taylor slowing this one down. And so just from how they're going to approach one another,

this is, it's not even a sharp move. It's the dumbest bet possible. But I bet the under on Monday. I think the way both these teams are playing, it lends itself to be just a much slower grinded out game than anything else. It will not be a fun watch to watch these two teams have an under, but I think that there's some validity to it. As we mentioned, it hasn't been great football from either side here yet. Connor, what do you think in that one?

Yeah, I almost kind of thought that like a live over would be great because I just see- That's a good way to put it. Yeah. You see these teams like feeling each other out, you know, like for like a live over would be great because i i just that's a good way to put it yeah you like these cds seems like feeling each other out you know like for like a quarter and a half with it being like three zero and then but like the fourth quarter they're gonna be like five touchdowns you know just because of you know how the game breaks out so yeah i think the under if you want to play something before is probably the right look um i'll probably look and be looking for a live over if we don't see anything early i don't because i i worry too because you know the bangles run defense with TJ Reeder has been pretty good.

So, like, do the Bills – are the Bills able to, like, kind of lean on that crutch if they're not able to have success passing the ball? Like, I don't know. I mean, I think they should have success, you know, eventually. But, again, like, it's like they just come out and they're just not the same. There's something missing there. And I can't really put my finger on exactly what it is,

but it's just like it's not all there. Josh Allen's making too many throws, forcing too many throws. Like, I mean, if you're throwing interceptions against the bears, like, you know, something is broken. No real handicap for me on this one. I just think it's going to be a good game, but I like the live overlook. But I think Dagle's pregame under is probably right. Especially on the right side of a 49.

I think that's probably a pretty viable look. And I can imagine too, as we just get to Monday afternoon and start to, you know, the rest of the weekend's played itself out and everyone's excited about this marquee matchup, I could see a scenario where that total gets a little bit of juice from public money. Just people want to have some money, like, oh, it's Allen and Burrow. And, like, I could see that one climbing out a little bit,

even, you know, upwards to 50 or 51. All right, what else do you guys like here before we wrap up and call it a day? Obviously, we've had a ton of movement in the Niners-Raiders game with the Jared Stenum news with the Raiders changing the quarterback here to be honest, saving themselves a crap ton of money or the liability of having to be on the hook for a crap ton of money, which is interesting considering that they are not actually eliminated from the playoffs, which is an interesting look.

Is there anything else that jumps out to you guys? I'm in mid-league. I have a smaller card this week, but I also bet the Giants on Monday. No, on Tuesday. And now it just seems like chalk. It seems like the whale play after everyone saw Nick Foles throw three picks average four and a half yards per attempt was a disaster but also in that game as if it wasn't bad enough three of six against the blitz for an interception and two sacks and as we know week martindale still blitzes at the league's highest rate also under jeff saturday

the colts have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns in only six games, have only scored 19 points per game. So whereas the Giants altered their game plan to allow Daniel Jones to throw 42 pass attempts against the secondary, I think they altered again. And then we see a heavy Daniel Jones, Matt Breida, Saquon Barkley game here and they get there with ease. So it's just an amazing spot for the Giants. The Giants are in with a win here. Yep. So it's a big one too. This is really hard. It's like, you know, they, both these teams are like done. There's Cole

McCoy playing, which makes it a little bit interesting. I think Atlanta could run all over the Cardinals here. It's really hard to like feel strong about that. I feel like Desmond Ritter has been okay. Like I feel like Drake London can do some stuff here. So at three, I think the Falcons are a little bit interesting. I haven't pulled the trigger considering because I see three and a halfs are popping up. So I'm not alone in that thought. So I'm going to give a little bit consideration to that this afternoon. That'd be an interesting look for me, but I feel like some totals are low. That Washington-Cleveland total, again, two more crappy teams that don't have a ton to play for, though Washington is still alive.

40.5 for that game feels a little light. And I know Carson Wentz has, you know, we can all poke holes in Carson Wentz. Daigle has done it very well for a number of years, has been dead on the entire time. Though I do think that there is a little bit more upside with that offense with Carson Wentz. We haven't had a great performance from Deshaun Watson. This is a little bit of a softer landing spot.

I think the weather is going to be nicer. I think there's going to be, I don't know, I think they want to put some stuff together heading into the offseason. And I feel like we saw, I think we've seen strides. There's 40 and a half feels really light for this one, where there could be a decent amount of plays in this game too. And I think we talked about the 49er spot last week, and that Washington hadn't played an NFL quarterback for two months, basically.

And whenever they played Jalen Hurts and Kirk Cousins, both were very successful, which is why we thought Purdy and the 49ers were going to cover and be successful. And so it is kind of that same spot where this is the, and this is something I saw on Monday too, and it's like, I can't do it. The Deshaun Watson Browns have three touchdowns in four games. Like they've been a disaster, but there is something there. Like you eyeball it and you say, look at his schedule. This is the easiest game Deshaun Watson has had so far.

So I kind of was looking at that too, but I don't, I admittedly don't have the courage to bet it. Connor, anything else on your card or that might find its way in your card? Yeah. You got to close your eyes there. I do think also too, with that Colts Giants match, what you guys were talking about, I think it's like one of the biggest coaching mismatches of the year with Parks Frazier and Jeff Saturday against Wink Martindale and you know,

Brian Dable. If you turn coach of the year, Brian Dable. Oh man. I know I was really hoping the Eagles would win. So that way I could just, you know, you know, Brian Dable, who if you turn like coach of the year, Brian Dable. Oh man. I know I was really hoping the Eagles would win. So that way I could just, you know, you know, start counting my money on the Sirianni tickets.

But I think an interesting spot here, and this is not something I normally recommend, but there's just like three teams that I love that are getting a ton of points, but just given the spots here. Okay. So, I mean,

three teams that I think you could tease, but I like a 10 point teaser here, three teams. I know this is like the 50 I like a 10-point teaser here, three teams. I know this is like the 50th thing I've recommended. What? Cowboys to one point. Okay, I mean, this is free money. This is free money.

Cowboys to one point. Chiefs to two and a half points. And Niners to pick them against the Raiders. Okay. I like it. I mean, I'm looking at all these. I'm like, dude, like these teams are going to win. It might be by a touchdown. It might be, dude, like these teams are going to win. It might be by a touchdown.

It might be by 20 points. They're all going to win. You need to jump on the Cowboys quickly because it's already up to 11. Like the Titans already, as we talked about at the top of the show, seven defensive starters ruled out. Derek Henry going to get ruled out. Like they're about to be – it's about to be Malik Willis and Raycee McMath.

That's their starting offense. Yeah, it looks like it's already up to 11.5 on FanDuel. Draft Kings points bets still have 10.5. So we've been doing this show, Connor, for five years. And, you know, I used to have a segment at the end of the show where I would add, you know, maybe talk about like a four, five-leg teaser. I'm bringing it back. Fishy teaser of the week.

Fishy teaser of the week. And here you are, year five, week 17. I've never gone to a 10-point teaser before. And you're like, here's what I got for the people. And I don't disagree with you. I think it's really interesting. You know, pre-show meetings and stuff before, you know, you would shoot down. I can't talk about these 10-team teasers because we're like no credibility.

No one's ever going to listen to our show if we're on here sputting off 10-point teasers. Yeah. I love that we've come full circle times have changed you know i'm just ready to go just drop the hammer on this play i mean this is like you know 10 point teaser just drop the hammer every team is winning by 20 i mean it's gonna be great it's gonna be a glorious sunday week 17 you know filled with money tequila everything so he's in weeks he's in mexico it's week 17 just let him let him have the 10 point teasers whatever i love it i love i like the play i like the thing he's doing it i'm waiting for next week he's gonna start teasing totals we're gonna have a whoa whoa whoa whoa four play 10 point teaser total uh you know over he's gonna tease him down and take the over i would love it

is there any research on like math on the 10 point teasers i'm sure it's minus ev but like if you go through like i mean we're getting through the 10 we're getting through the three and we're getting through you know what i mean like you're getting an allen teaser like this is yeah the allen teaser yeah like who who is the guy who invented the wong teaser i'm the new teaser like who just invented it you know you break you go through those two rules it hits an astronomically high rate yeah you teach through the three the seven and the ten uh and you're good to go how can it fail i love it i love it so good stuff as always uh i made it i'm just ready to be done with the show um you guys did a good job carrying me here sorry that i look like this sorry that i sound like this but we appreciate you hanging out we're gonna be back for week 18 i'm gonna be back

on friday i don't know my son i'm full dad mode this week, my son's in a basketball tournament, very easily could be doing the prop drop show from a high school parking lot in my car, depending on what the Friday basketball schedule looks like for my son, but we'll be here with a prop show regardless, Connor

myself and Pat Mayo for props and continue to find all of Dangle's content here on our YouTube channels, podcast feeds as well. And lots of writing still on the site too. What else you got, bud? This show will also be back for wild card weekend.

We will not be previewing week 18 because it's impossible on a Wednesday. You're already seeing on a Wednesday in week 17, what's happening today. Week 18 is double than this, but we will be back to preview Wild Card for sure. Love it. Did you just cancel next week's show?

We don't record week 18 and move the line, do we? We typically do, but we can I like a week off. I don't know. I'm waiting for producer Sal to be like, wait, did Daniel just cancel that stream? It is hard. We can talk about it. We'll see how the week plays out, and then we can I'm waiting for producer Sal to be like, wait, did Daniel just cancel that stream? I thought we were recording. It is hard.

We can talk about it. We'll see how the week plays out, and then we can decide. I doubt if there's something to talk about. More 10-point teasers, baby. Yes. Teaser show. Yeah, we can, you know, parse through that depending on what happens this week. Because I do think there's scenarios this week where next week looks very dicey.

And I think there's a scenario this week where there's a bunch of stuff that's in play next week. So we'll kind of go from there. Producer Sal's okay to cancel. Not surprising. For Dangle and Connor and Ryan, we'll see you all on Friday for the prop show. Thanks, everybody. Bye.