Move The Line - FREE NFL Picks For Week 18 | Expert Bets & Predictions

Episode Date: January 5, 2023

Week 18 NFL Preview! Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan & John Daigle get you ready for Week 18 of the NFL season. They share their top NFL bets and fantasy tips and advice for Week 18.Timestamps:0:00 Intro5:59 CHIEFS-RAIDERS11:14 TITANS-JAGUARS18:20 PATRIOTS-BILLS21:34 VIKINGS-BEARS22:03 RAVENS-BENGALS26:17 TEXANS-COLTS27:21 JETS-DOLPHINS31:51 BROWNS-STEELERS36:24 CHARGERS-BRONCOS39:00 CARDINALS-49ERS41:49 GIANTS-EAGLES44:14 RAMS-SEAHAWKS45:16 COWBOYS-COMMANDERS49:21 LIONS-PACKERS55:30 OutroSHOW NOTES:Want a FREE 4for4 Betting Subscription? Deposit $10 into a new BetMGM account using promo code 4FOR4 👉🏼  https://4for4.com/go/BetMGMGet a FREE 4for4 Pro or DFS Sub & Bonus Deposit Match up to $100 with Promo Code 4FOR4 on Underdog Fantasy (Minimum $10 deposit)  👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3BMECYuSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow John on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/notJDaigleVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3TbYo4X4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea

Hello, welcome to Moodle Line, Ryan Noonan joined here as always by my friends, Connor Allen, John Daigle, Connor looking dressed up, just fresh back from dinner tonight. How we doing? Good. Been drinking some tequila by the pool all day, hanging out. Played a little bit of tennis today and some shuffleboards, some old people games. It was a lot of fun. Shuffleboards, incredible old person game.

Tennis is a little harder as you get a little bit older, but yeah, Shelfboard's a lot of fun. Diggle, how are we doing today? Week 18. We've been waiting for week 18 since, I don't know, May? And we're here. Load gets a little lighter from here on out. Yeah, and we are greeted with only, what, one total on Sunday that's over 41 and a half points and lots of motivational tactic gets and

just transparent resting situations despite the fact we've had coach speak all week I don't know why we do this every year it's a tricky one um again like not gonna tell everyone anyone to you know what to do with their bankroll and how they want to handle it. Week 18 is tricky. Talked about it a little bit last week too around like double counting. Again, this is a very, very liquid market, even in week 18. So if you are trying to find an edge on rest or speculative rest or feel like you have a better sense of that than the general public does, I would just caution you to kind of second-guess yourself a little bit and just understand that it's probably already baked into the number,

and I guess we'll tackle that from a game-by-game situation as we get there. I know we've had some – I've seen all over social media about people like, oh, like Packers money line, let's correlate this with the Broncos money line. And it's like, even if, you know, Chase Daniels is back there, Easton Stick, whoever it is for the Chargers, they're probably still better than the Broncos, honestly. So it just doesn't, there are a lot of things going on

that don't make much sense right now. Yeah, motivational spots. I mean, let's go back to last week where we had everyone in the world on San Francisco. It was a great spot, especially if you got line movement before it got out to Jared Stidham, you had a team benching their quarterback,

nothing to play for San Francisco, all the stuff in the world to play for. And what happens? That game goes to OT and we need to feel at the end. So careful with the motivation thing. I know, you know, Connor will probably have some thoughts on some of those games and spots as

well, because we have a lot of them here where you may get one side that's motivated and one that's not. Be careful overextending here. Before we jump into the slate of games here, I want to remind folks, still two episodes of Move Align each week, both available streaming here on YouTube, in a podcast form, wherever you consume podcasts. This is the game preview, sides and totals. Move Align Prop Drop is live 2 p.m. Eastern every Friday.

It's Pat Mayo, Connor, and myself. Again, continue to rolling that all the way through the Super Bowl as we are here with the Wednesday night show as well. Also a unique channel at 444Bets on YouTube as well with special content daily, unique for all sports there. Check that out and subscribe as well. So also great time, 444.com plans betting subscription 34 bucks takes you to the end of february get all of our dfs all of our betting

all the tools from now until the end of the super bowl you'll start maybe getting some of our nfl draft stuff we started to get a feel for that right around that time um so you'll probably want to come hang out with us 34 bucks bucks is not a lot to make up. We've had multiple people in the last couple of days that have kind of jumped in here and have already made that back in more as you can imagine here in short order. So it gets you great access to us and our Discord

and again, all the tools that are on the site as well. And they're still grinding other sports, NBA, college hoops, MMA. If you're dabbling in any of the Pick'em sites, we have specific channels designed for those as well too. So, all right, we'll jump into it. Again, we'll kind of touch on all the games that we think matter even a little bit, obviously with all the stuff that's going on with Buffalo and, you know, DeMar Hamlin has been obviously an unbelievable situation to watch. And obviously we're still very much concerned about that young man who seems

to be treading in the right direction. Hopefully that continues to be the case. I know Daigle had boots on the ground. It was, you know, in Cincinnati for that excited that the NFL relieved, I guess would be the better word that they made the right decision. I can't imagine them having to play football there.

Daigle, anything you want to share about your experience there? Honestly, no. I'm not qualified to speak on it. I cried Monday night. It was a mess. It was an absolute mess. Really hard to process and take in what we saw.

We get, I think, unfortunately numb to head injuries and other stuff like that that happens. And, you know, we do typically see scenarios where we get a thumbs up or we get some sort of positive report after they get taken off. But the scenario that happened on Monday is still, I think, sitting with everyone and should be. And hopefully we continue to trend on the news that we're currently getting from Hamlin and his family. And, yeah, so we're going to sit and do our best to talk about football at week 18 based off of what we know. And again, recording on a Wednesday night, there's still a lot going on in terms of the NFL schedule.

That again is kind of what we have to do and is our job to do. So we have to move forward and kind of handle it that way. And it could be some moving parts. You could be listening to this on Friday and the schedule could shift and who knows what's going to happen as of now just cincinnati and buffalo game is kind of paused uh to be determined and we're going to play it off as basically week 18 is happening as the matchups and schedule is telling us to do so so with that we'll start with the first we have two saturday games uh kansas city first on the road against the Raiders,

the aforementioned Raiders who showed up in a big way last week when they very much could have rolled over. Kansas City, with all that's going on, obviously not knowing the results of that Monday night game, number one seed, still very much alive and to be determined here. So Kansas City will be going all out here. Dave, I'll let you get started with Chiefs Raiders. Kansas City certainly going all out here. Dago, let's get started with Chiefs Raiders. Kansas City certainly going all out.

And it makes the game matter so much that there shouldn't be Saturday NFL games this week because those have trickle-down effects for what happens Sunday, especially with the Bills here. But nonetheless, Chiefs starting us off here on Saturday. You know, I would like to laugh and say the Chiefs will just easily walk over the Raiders. And as someone who has seen every snap of Jared Stidham's career, for better or worse, like, I don't know where that performance came from. I have no idea why he was arguably the best quarter, one of the best quarterbacks in the

league against the 49ers. Like, how it was possible that both Nick Bosa had a defensive player of the year, clenching game, while also Jared Stidham looked like he'd been a 10-year veteran quarterback launching throws 10 and 20 yards downfield, just hammering Devontae Adams, which is something even Derek Carr wasn't standing in the pocket and doing. So the Chiefs had to take care of business, but at the same time, they're 1-7-1 against the spread in their last nine games. So I hate to just keep taking these big spreads and say the Chiefs have to take care of business, but at the same time, they're 1-7-1 against the spread in their last nine games. So I hate to just keep taking these big spreads and say the Chiefs are the most efficient

in the office in the league. They'll just dunk on these worst teams because they haven't been doing that. In fact, I think it's probably wiser to take the points here. So I genuinely don't have a lean here. I would imagine the Chiefs take care of business, but zero faith that it's by the spread. Yeah, Chiefs team total, Connor, basically 31 and a half, a very hefty team total. What are your thoughts here?

I mean, obviously they're motivated, but I mean, I don't think that we should expect the Raiders to lay down either. No, I mean, we, like Daniel said, we just saw Jared sit in his first career start. I mean, he's played a lot of like mop up duty and occasionally just like, you know, just eviscerate like the top defense in the league or what we thought was um and now at this point he's mentioning his kansas city defense that's far worse i mean they're like like below average in most metrics um and this is

also a game away from arrowhead which i think matters specifically for this total um and where we expect kansas city to score plenty i think the over is actually an interesting look if you think that jared sit-up can even do i mean half of he did before, like it's like the total is like 52 and a half. Like you're talking like a 30, 27 game, you know, if maybe even, you know, 35 points for the Chiefs, if the Raiders can even put up like 20, you're getting there. I think that the total here is a good look on the over. I know it's by far the highest total of the week,

but just given what we saw last week, I mean, maybe I'm reading too much into that because, but I just don't think we have a huge sample of Jared Stidham, to be honest. Like I thought he was fine, you know, in what we've we've seen but i mean now you saw him just go off against a great defense so i'm willing to bet the over here i think that's probably my biggest takeaway but to dangle's point i also would not lay the points of the chiefs here either uh yeah 52 and a half is painted across the board nine and a half everywhere as well uh legeria sneed impactful injury to watch for on the chief side uh Definitely their best cornerback left last game,

still dealing with a hip injury, and I don't think he's been practicing yet this week. So that would be impactful because we saw last week, again, like we saw the best game basically of Devontae Adams in a difficult matchup without his best friend at quarterback. So like this could be a spot very much where he could still be wanting to get some end of the year, you know, leave on a good note. And he talked about today returning no matter what the quarterback situation is next year.

So imagine you see the best Raiders. I just wish I could put my finger on it because, dude, I'm telling you, we've all seen Jared Stidham play in the NFL. He shouldn't be in the NFL. And then that performance on Sunday was wild. He led the league in depth, the target. He went five of eight on throws, 20 yards downfield. He averaged eight and a half yards per attempt under pressure. I just don't know who that person was.

I have no idea. I bet under, Jared said him under 205 and a half passing yards. It felt so good about it. I was like, oh, this is a great bet. It closed like 195, 197. We got like 10 yards closing. He hit the over in the first half, I'm pretty sure. Yeah, and we know McDaniel 10 years close on the value. He hit the over in the first half, I'm pretty sure. Yeah, and we know

McDaniel is coming back no matter what, but at the same time, you can look and say, okay, like the five plus games of double-digit leads they had that they blew, that's probably coaching gaffes, but at the same time,

like the team isn't quitting. They're still fighting for him. Same for Lovy Smith in Houston. So it's actually just hard to say like, Oh, McDaniel, this is all his fault. Maybe it was a lot more Derek card than we think. Of course, it's only one game, which is why, what makes this one such an interesting watch, honestly, on Saturday. My favorite super fishy thing to do every week. I've talked about it a few times, talked about it in the chat. I love to basically, I love to parlay team total unders at 24 and a half. I've had an incredible success doing so this year. I got a little bit aggressive last week and added more legs than I typically do and went six of seven because Jared Stidham and the Raiders went off. I felt really good about

Raiders under 24 and a half in that parlay last week. I hit the rest comfortably and, you know, probably shouldn't have gone that aggressive with it, but back to the well this week for a last little run at 24 and a half and, and under parlay. All right. Next is the other Saturday night game. Tennessee is in Jacksonville. Looks like it's basically six across the board, 40 and a half, or 40 is the team total or the game total, I'm sorry, 39 and a half off market per usual over at FanDuel.

Again, similar first start of their career. Josh Dobbs showed a little bit of better than Malik Willis, I guess. The forward pass was part of the Titans' plan. They'll have Derrick Henry back. He's been practicing in full. They obviously rested him against Dallas last week. Jacksonvilleville just continues to roll was able to take care of business with their starters in a big way against houston now again mark is telling us that they like them very much in the spot here uh they are again six point favorites across the board connor

what are your thoughts on tennessee and jacksonville this game is interesting because the more that i broke it down i kind of think it's a bad matchup here for Tennessee beyond just like obviously not having Ryan Tannehill, but if we kind of look at, you know, the strengths and weaknesses of these teams, so Jacksonville's offense here, they're a little bit multiple, but I think when they're at their best, they're throwing a little bit more. Trevor Lawrence is exploiting a bad secondary. Titans, massive pass funnel, you know, 28th and pass DVOA, second to run DVOA, so they don't have to rely on the run. They should have plenty of success passing, asvor said last time another side of the ball he was josh dobbs matchup against a pretty poor jacksville secondary but like do we think that

the titans are able to exploit that weakness uh i mean probably not with josh dobbs like they're probably gonna want to give the ball derrick henry and run the ball where jacksville's running defense isn't necessarily good but it's's just not a very clear weakness. They're just around league average in most metrics. So I feel like when we look at that and look at just the way these teams are trending, I struggle to bet against the Titans because they're always a team that seems to stick around for a little bit longer, but at the same time, with just how these teams match up on paper,

for me, I kind of like the Jaguar side here under a touchdown. Yeah, Daniel, pretty massive splits in the first half and second half with the Tennessee offense is one of these scripted teams. And there's a handful of them in league. Whereas the Tennessee offense has actually been fairly adequate in the first half, sixth in total DVOA, 31st in the second half. So again, like I think Jacksonville is worth a look here,

but I think they might even be better live if maybe you get a little Derrick Henry going, might be able to bounce back. What are your thoughts on this one? That's probably the spot since we still have no faith in the Jaguars defense that's allowed 27 points per game in the second half of the season. Also the Titans, they basically had a bye week whenever they weren't planned to in week 17. That has to matter since they were so banged up. It looks like they will get back starting cornerback Christian Fulton here, Monty Hooker in the secondary, Nicholas Petit-Ferrer, who was filling in at right tackle, Danico Autry, Jeffrey Simmons

will all play as well, Bud Dupree. So they will be healthier than they've been arguably the last month. At the same time, though, it is a Titans offense that, yes, Tannehill was a little banged up. We got a couple starts from Malik Willis, but was averaging 15 points per game with Derrick Henry in his last five starts. So I am slightly worried, but at the same time,

the spot honestly just may work out better for the Titans. So I've seen people already try to parlay the Jags wide receivers incentives since basically Kirk and Zay Jones have to get over 80 receiving yards to get their contract bonuses. At the same time, that's pretty ridiculous since you can just say, well, the Titans are still second in yards per attempt to opposing boundary receivers. Like wide receiver we know is where they get tagged every single week. So that would be the reason you bank on any props for the Jags wide receivers. But honestly, for me, it is a live bet because I am worried about the situation the Titans

had last week. Yeah. Okay. So we, first off, I think this is really important because contract incentives matter. It's instances, but always, always, always winning comes first. Like these guys do not care about their contract incentives when they have to win the game. Like that always comes first. So I've seen, like you said, I've seen other people talk about it.

And I'm like, you know, obviously that matters in certain situations. You know, like it matters, especially with a quarterback knows that he's going to feed his water. A coach really likes his running back. He might feed his running back a little bit more in games that are not like playoff pending. So for me, I feel like you said it well there. Like you probably, they might still both get you said it well there. Um, like you probably,

they might still both get there because it's a great matchup, but not because they're trying to feed them to make a couple hundred thousand more dollars. It's the same situation we were in last week. Uh, you know, we're just, we're in the time of the year where their echo chamber is loudest because everyone's gathering the same thoughts. And I went on this show. I went on so many other shows, even on the fantasy shows we do at the at the most accurate podcast speed and just kept on repeating to everyone like like well i don't know where the narrative began but the jaguars aren't benching players in week 17 like that is the worst narrative going around and i don't understand where that's coming from and of course they didn't until they built a 28 to nothing lead in the second half that only then did they bench

players so yeah it's it's understand everyone just like not doing their own research and just gathering thoughts here. But yes, if the contract incentives can hit because the Titans defense, that's where they've been attacked. But again, they got healthier because they basically had 14 days off. Thank you. I mean, I was going to bring it up at some point in the show as probably seems like the best spot to do it.

Um, it drives me nuts. I think it's super lazy and, um, you know, I do think the market is aware of it as well. So at times you'll be betting into you know even a worse line because they're aware of these things um and to dago's point it gets recycled and recycled and recycled it's not an original thought and winning always comes first perfectly said by both of you um it just this game matters for the jags like it can't be force feeding targets to guys and again like they're prominently involved in the offense and they will need to be involved for the Jags to win.

But again, like that is a by-product of those things and not a driving force when you're really needing to extend and make a playoff spot for the first time in a while. When you have a losing culture, this is not necessarily, that's something that are focused on turning around, not necessarily the incentives that come along with it.

They will be dragged along. Now, what happens in another incentive-laden game, like when a stoppable force like the Colts meets a movable object in the Texans with the number one overall pick on the line? I don't know because the Texans are the best around and screw that up, the Colts are so bad. So I don't know what happens in that game,

but I know I would think they'll be trying their hardest to maybe lay that one down. Yeah, that one will be interesting. You would think too that the Falcons would want to do that as well because again, not going long on this game, but Tampa Bay is on the road there. The Falcons are favorite. There's been reports of,

there's been a lot of live movement in that game. There's been reports of the Bucs at least of live movement in that game. There's been reports of the Bucks, at least starting their players, which is probably going to happen. I don't imagine they play the duration. Basically the market's saying, we don't believe you Todd Bowles, that you're going to basically play your guys

the entire game. Why would you? I'm incentivized in that game. I have Falcons under two wins in the division. They've been at one for a very long time. This becomes a push if they win here. I don't know why they'd want to win here um i would like them to lose and that becomes a win for me but um again you're just you're hurting your draft stock but uh hey that'll be a interesting game and one of the ones we won't really dive in on uh but we'll keep it moving the best we can here

with the uh patriots and the bills right now it's what we think has happened. New England is going to Buffalo. Shop this because the Bills are minus seven in most spots. There's eight and a half on points bet. It's not a huge middle, but somewhat of a noteworthy middle. And total, basically, 42 everywhere. Obviously, the Patriots, technically, still alive and control their own destiny with a win here. Bills obviously need this one as well, just as they do with the Cincinnati game or whatever happens with that one,

because the number one seed is very much up for grabs. You want to have that buy. You want to be able to host Cincinnati, host Kansas City, whatever those games look like. Patriots just still continue to struggle offensively, still continue to find ways to score on the defensive side of the football. Again, we've been kind of poking holes and talking about how they have really underperformed against really good offenses, but they continue to score and just kind of bolster the offense. Their best offense is when the defense is out there.

Buffalo obviously dealing with a lot here emotionally. I'll be interested to see how Sean McDermott can kind of get that team ready to go. Dago, I'll get your thoughts on Patriots-Bills. It's another bad spot for the Patriots defense who already allowed 24 points. It was actually a low scoring affair for the Bills offense. I've shown up and cited just the Patriots defense against competent offenses all year long. Teddy Bridgewater was not that, even though the Dolphins were spiking big plays in the first half. And then Teddy Bridgewater injured his finger last year.

And Skylar Thompson just could not do anything off the bench. It was either a scramble or a pass behind the line of scrimmage. But overall, you would think it's still, you know, in any other scenario in life, an easy walk, honestly, for the Bills. That's why they're favored by seven points. But at the same time, coming off of Monday's game, no practice for the Bills as of Wednesday, and rightfully so. We're just going through walkthroughs here.

Maybe it matters, maybe it doesn't. I don't know. But if you told me to lean a direction, it is certainly the Bills. Yeah, hard to quantify and really put all this in perspective, Connor. Yeah, not much to add there Pats win, get the seventh seed Bills win, they might get the one seed if the Chiefs lose So full throttle both sides

I mean, we've cited it on the show, I guess For the last, what, ten weeks? The Patriots' defense is overrated When they play a good offense, they get rinsed So, you know, if the Bills are at full strength here They should be good That offense is so bad It's bad They're so bad to watch When they play a good offense, they get rinsed. So, you know, if the Bills are at full strength here, they should be good. That offense is so bad.

It's bad. They're so bad to watch. Yeah, it's bad. Romandre looks like he's been just absolutely rinsed all season at this point. He's done. It looks like, where are we? Caesars is hanging a team total on Buffalo. The only one in the market right now at 25 and a half,

which I think is an interesting look. Again, on the right side of key numbers. I noted this on the recap show, which feels like a year ago now, but for the Patriots offense, it's Ramondre Stevenson, who leads the team in touchdowns, and then Jacoby Myers, and then Kyle Duggar is third. That's how bad that offense is. Yeah, I think Duggar's got three scores this year.

Yep. Won't really go long on Minnesota-Chicago. Chicago doing the right thing. They are going for the number one seed. Minnesota still needs this game because they still have a shot at the two seed. It's seven and a half. Minnesota refuses to be involved in games outside of a touchdown a touchdown beach to see what happens there but uh again not enough for us on uh on the bear side here kind of a weird game and timing of different games and whatnot but uh definitely

vikings something to play for in that one uh the other one here we'll jump into is baltimore at cincinnati again cincinnati in the same here. We really don't know what to make of them. There are six and a halves and sevens out there. This Ravens team looks like it's going to be without Lamar Jackson again. And the Tyler Huntley is also injured. Who knows what's going to happen there? He, I believe, has mispracticed all week so far too. This Ravens offense without Lamar is just not good. And it's worse than the Patriots,

which is a strong statement. Cincinnati, obviously fully motivated, a good spot. They've really kind of had Baltimore's number for the last couple of years too. Dagle, what are your thoughts on Ravens-Bengals? Listen to these final scores over the last five games for the Ravens. 10-9, 16-14, 3-13, 17-9, 13-16. Like the NFL would tell you they're having fun. It's just close, good football. It's not good though. They may be close, but it's a disaster.

And I'd love to look back and say, oh, like the Ravens actually in their last five games, like have only allowed 58 total points. So their defense is better. But then you see that's actually come against russell wilson kenny pickett deshaun watson and desmond ridder and you're like okay it doesn't even matter actually we we need an actual litmus test and this is that litmus test and i don't think it matters like if the bingles reach 20 the game is over in the first half even

because this ravens team just can't score they They can run the ball well, but the play calling is well off. So, yeah, I don't have any amount of faith in this Ravens team. The line was at seven, as you mentioned, on Monday. I think that's pretty much the time we knew that Lamar, who now hasn't practiced in 31 days, just MIA on a milk carton. No one knows what the situation is. It doesn't sound good for the playoffs, but nonetheless, yeah, it's just the fact that the Ravens can't score.

It's that simple. Yeah, Connor, 16 and a half on Caesars. Again, a lone wolf in the market hanging a total on this game. On the Ravens side, obviously we'd prefer the 17. I don't think we're going to get there. Maybe there's a little bit more belief in the Bengals in the marketplace that could drive the game total up, and we could see team total sneak up.

What are your thoughts on this matchup? Yeah, it's tough for me to back the Ravens here for a lot of the reasons you mentioned. I think that with the Bengals here specifically, like if they get up, like you said, how does Baltimore punch back? And I think the answer is that they don't. And so, you know, like, I mean, it's almost like before Lamar Jackson, I don't know, learned how to pass the ball successfully and come back. Like now you have a way, way, way worse version of him, you know,

a Tyler Helmley quarterback. And like they fall behind this Baltimore offense. They don't have the playmakers. They don't have the Tyler Helmley doesn't have the capability to pass to come back. So it's just like they methodically can move the ball down the field. You're running via, you know, some quick pass plays here and there. But that's it.

Like they have nothing else. And so unfortunately I think that, you know, it's basically like if the Bengals get a 10 point lead, the game's kind of just like over, I think at this point. So for me, it's probably Bengals seven. I mean, I think there's, I mean, I, okay. First off my, my, my 10 point teaser cash last week, my three, like 10 point teaser did cash. But I do think that this is like, I mean, teaser leg thoughts. I mean, they're going to play, right? They're going to play all out. Like, I'm pretty confident they're going to win.

But, I mean, they can win by a ton. And if they don't get a big lead, the game might be a little closer. So they might not win by more than seven. But, I mean, I'm pretty confident they win by three or more or, like, you know, two and a half or more. I love this angle. I love Connor Allen. Teaser tout.

Ten-point teaser tout. One and oh, baby. One and oh. I love it. There's six and a half out there at River still. So, like, that 10-point teaser tout. 1-0, baby. 1-0. I love it. There's 6.5 out there at River still. Is there? Yeah, I think that's a nice thing. I like that.

I like that. This is the worst analysis I'm going to give all year because it consists of Sal, get ready. It consists of only one drive. No, do not cut this. But I will say in a game that mattered before everything know, before everything that matters more on Monday night, one drive, Zach Taylor was in his bag. That one drive.

I remember leaving that one drive thinking, oh, Zach Taylor came to coach tonight. And this is a game that clearly matters. So maybe it is a turning point for Bengals offense getting more aggressive. Their team total is still available as well at Caesars. 24 and a half is the only place that that's posted. So definitely an interesting game that matters. And be interested to see what happens with that one.

The other one that doesn't matter, Texans and Colts. Colts can very much get in here and mess this up. Sam Ellinger, I don't know. Like it might end up being one of the most interesting games of the weekend, even though it matters 0% for anything for anything so zach moss 24 carries and if the texans want to stop it they can because it's zach moss if they don't want to he's gonna lead sunday in rushing hopefully we get some jalen petrie tackle numbers out here uh books were scared last week they barely posted anything i can't imagine that we've seen very many tackle props this weekend unfortunately that's unfortunate it stinks i'm just pumped because

if the texans win here the bears have the worst record which i did bet on preseason at like 14 to 1 or something like that so somehow that's still live after people were talking them up you know like they might win six seven eight games mid midseason because they were on a roll. So that would be very nice. Get those three quick, right? Yeah. The Niners one was a joke, though. I mean, the Niners one was a joke. I mean, it was like Trey Lance's first start. She's like, I have monsoon.

I mean, that was ridiculous. All right. Another one that matters is Jets in Miami. Basically, Jets won one and a half. Let me see where we're at total-wise. 38 and a half across the board. Both these teams are on pretty severe losing streets. Jets basically punched their tickets out last week.

Miami still can get there. They need a little bit of help. They got to take care of business in this one. Obviously, another spot where we have questions at quarterback, Skylar Thompson is going to have to kind of carry the water here. And the Jets, I mean, I imagine they continue to play out with their guys. Dago, let's start with Jets and Dolphins. It's just hard to give the Jets any amount of credit on offense right now

because, yes, they have their best quarterback available to them under center. But at the same time, Mike White was very clearly injured and should not have been out there last week. But at the same time, because he's a gamer, because he went and got literally 10 doctor's opinions until two in a row finally cleared him, then he got to be active over Zach Wilson. Other than that, that though I mean the

guy just couldn't throw it all he completed 35 percent of his passes under pressure he didn't complete a single pass over 20 yards and that's not the Mike White we know and yet even in being that visibly injured they still leaned on him you know remember they were averaging 47 pass attempts per game with him um in his three starts and they nearly you know reached 40 last week so overall it's just hard honestly to have faith in the Jets offense right now because they're just playing handicapped Connor we thought both these teams were in the playoffs a couple weeks ago about a month ago definitely the Dolphins I mean they were rolling I'm obviously unfortunate what's happened with Tua give me your thoughts on this

one yeah there's there's something that's interesting that I noted today on Twitter is Obviously, unfortunately, what's happened with Tua. Give me your thoughts on this one. Yeah, there's something that's interesting that I noted today on Twitter is that this is a really easy spot here where Miami wins and they're very likely in the playoffs. The Jets don't have anything to play for. But a few of these scenarios over the past few years that we see, like a team that needs to win and in against a team that doesn't have anything to play for. And those teams actually, Cleve TA compiled all the results for the last,

I believe it was like 15, 20 years. Those teams are 57-95 against the spread, so just 37%. We saw last year Miami in a must-win game against Buffalo that had nothing to play for just get absolutely wrecked. I mean, like 56-26. We saw the Jags. I believe it was the Colts lost to the Jags last year as well. Yep, needing to win and get in. 26th. We saw the Jags. It was the Colts lost to the Jags last year as well.

Needing to win and get in. There's three of those games, at least right now. Potentially four depending on how the Chargers Broncos game or something like that. One of the other games shakes out. We're at three right now for sure. This is one of them. I don't necessarily love the Jets here, but I do think that this is an interesting

spot. Skyler Thompson just shows nothing. You know, like, I mean, at this point, he's been, like, really bad. I think we're all on the same page that Mike McDaniel is a great coach. Like, he's a very capable play caller and scheming things up. But there's only so much you can do when it comes to, like, scheming up and play calling if your quarterback can't complete, like, a 15-yard pass. Yeah, and they have a good amount of injuries on the defensive side as well,

Miami, which has been super tough for them interested to see what happens they got reports of um you know their owners very much uh i guess been liking and pursuing sean payton for years there's thoughts about them making a coaching change if they don't make the playoffs just be wild i mean i imagine uh mcdaniel be scooped up pretty quickly if that were to happen. But that's just wild. That would be insane. They've gone through so much this year. That would be insane. I know.

It seems more on the table than anyone could possibly believe that that would be the case. That's what happens when you get rich billionaire owners that, you know, the dude's like 86 years old or whatever. Like he doesn't have a lot of time left. He probably wants to see a playoff berth or at least a Superbowl run. So yeah, I think the coaches they have can get it done, but we didn't have to see what happens there.

And again, like part of the reason I think the NFL structure is the schedule, the way they do with these division matchups late in the season is that like jets don't want to give the dolphins a free pass to the playoffs. Like, even though they're not necessarily incentivized by anything in the standings, like you just don't want to give the Dolphins a free pass to the playoffs. Even though you're not necessarily incentivized by anything in the standings, you don't want to lay down in the division. And I just think that's part of why they do it this way.

And I think anyone thinks that that's going to happen, I think is just kind of foolish. Carolina is in New Orleans. That game does not matter either. New Orleans, three and a half point favorites there. Nothing to play for. Browns are in Pittsburghittsburgh and this one matters and shop because uh two and a half is out there on points bet uh cleveland is three at most other spots there's some other two and a half out there

too 40 40 and a half is the total very likely scenario i don't say very likely but very probable believe it or not that the steelers can make it in here after that win on Sunday night. They need the Jets to go into Miami and win, which we just talked about Skyler Thompson. That's not something that can't get done. And then we know that New England is a dog against the Bills. So again, very probable, believe it or not, that the Steelers, again, Mike Tomlin,

is going to somehow with this team this season, fail to have a losing record. Just really incredible. You have to give credit that that continues to be the case. This is not a great defense. His offense has really lacked any vertical threat all season. Najee Harris has basically heard us say he's the 24-year-old wash running back and has really turned it on down the stretch. Browns, again, nothing to play for.

They want to get good Deshaun Watson tape out there. They want to continue to move forward. Browns are not laying down here as well. Connor, what are your thoughts on Browns Steelers? Yeah, this is another spot. It qualifies as well. Like, you know, Pittsburgh winning in Cleveland is nothing to play for. But if we look at these teams on like just at face value, I don't really think that,

I mean, I think Pittsburgh is maybe a little bit better because their defense is pretty solid but like i don't necessarily think that they're a significantly better team by any margin so i mean are we really baking in you know three points to spread just based purely based on motivation like i don't know i i really think that cleveland could easily win here so for me it's probably cleveland plus three but i i don't really have too much conviction because i'm not necessarily sure I want to bet on them either. I still just think that, like, I just remain that Pittsburgh's offense is not that good and that their defense is volatile, is how I would describe it.

I agree they're not that good, but in my opinion, they're still better than this Deshaun Watson offense right now who pulled the wool over everyone's eyes last week and scoring all three of his touchdowns over 100 yards on six completions in the second half he was miserable no touchdowns uh 50 passing yards in the first half and then now you look and the Steelers the way they're playing since they returned from their bye in week 10 asking Kenny Pickett to do less and leaning on the league six times-times run play rate. There's six and rushing touchdowns in that time as well.

Najee Harris, his success rate is now top five in the league after their bye because his foot injury has had time to heal. And if they're just going to do that, if they're going to continue leaning on the running game against the Browns front seven, that's how you beat Cleveland. It didn't work for the Commanders and Brian Robinson last week, even though they tried. It's just more about the Commanders and Brian Robinson last week, even though they tried. It's just more about the Commanders offense in general. But remember before that, the Ravens combined for over eight yards per carry, Joe Mixon totaled over 100 yards with a touchdown, and then both Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill totaled 120 yards and two touchdowns combined

on the ground against Cleveland. So I think it is actually a much better matchup for the Steelers here. And I don't know how the hell we got here, but I think they get the last seed in the playoff. Honestly, I tweeted it out yesterday. There was a opportunity where on FanDuel, they have a make the playoffs tab and Pittsburgh's in there at plus 410. If you were to money line parlay all that we need to happen here, which is Buffalo winning the Jetsets win, and the Steelers win. That's plus 340. So it's actually a better bet on FanDuel to take the plus 410 for the Steelers to make the playoffs.

Which is never usually the case. Rarely the case. Yeah, so. Great odds. Yeah, good catch. So I'm kind of with you there. I kind of think they make it in. I don't think New England goes to Buffalo and win.

And this Skyler Thompson-led offense, I think, with all the injuries on the defensive side, of think they make it in um i don't think new england goes to buffalo and win um and this skyler thompson-led offense i think with all the injuries on the defensive side bradley chubb some injuries in the secondary like i don't feel great about the spot for the dolphins so yeah very i'd again obviously one and done gonna be a really tough lane for the steelers to you know face buffalo or kansas city or whatever ends up happening there, but they keep the dream alive and getting the dance and, you know, good for Kenny Pickett, I guess. I don't know. It's kind of what's going to happen. I think so. He is the most unimpressive, uh, last drive of the game winning quarterback I've ever seen in my life. It's not great. And that's actually maybe the problem is you're going to get in bed and feel like, Hey, he took us to the playoffs in the first year.

You know, just going to double down and, you know, put yourself in a spot where you kind of tie yourself to him for a few more years. It's interesting to see. It's just to see New England does the same thing with Matt Jones. So we'll see.

This next game is, is moved a lot. It's been really interesting today. The chargers are in Denver. It's moved because there was a lot, basically the results of the Monday night Bengals-Bills game was going to determine whether this, that game, the Ravens-Bengals game was going to be early or late. They made the decision today that that is going to be early. So what happens there is the Chargers are going to know whether

or not the Ravens win or lose. And that determines who is in the fifth seed or who is in the sixth seed. And that makes a big difference because you avoid those top three beasts, especially in the first round. Basically, you get that fifth spot, you know that you can go to the winner of Tennessee and Jacksonville instead. So now we've seen some movement here that is indicating, again, we could see less than a full game from the Chargers starters. Denver, two, two and a half out there in the marketplace.

39 and a half, 40 is the total here. Again, we could very much get a scenario where the Chargers can do this if they need it and still do it without a whole lot against Denver, who has been abysmal this season, probably the biggest disappointment in the league. Dagle, thoughts on Chargers-Broncos? Honestly, not much here since I don't think we see the Chargers in this scenario especially as you mentioned with Justin Herbert popping up on the injury report

midweek and at the same time I don't have any faith in a Broncos win so uh not not sure what to think honestly since even if Justin Herbert was rested I'm curious who else would be rested and this defense all along outside of the game, they just quit. Then Nathaniel Hackett got fired afterwards against the Rams. The defense all along has carried their weight. It's just the offense has been the struggle here. So honestly, I don't have a side here at all. These are the tough ones, Connor,

because I feel like we know that we don't see a full slate from the starters. We don't know what that looks like. We don't know if that's 25%. We don't know if that's 25%. We don't know if that's 75%. It makes it really hard to, I think, handicap these spots. Yeah, I just, you can't bet on this until, like I just don't think you can bet on this at all, to be honest, because even if like,

I guess you can play the game of, okay, well, the Bengals are, I think we all think are very likely to win, but do you really want to bet, be betting on the Broncos? Like, sure. Maybe you get like half point to CLV. You know, I'm not happy about that half point,

you know, like, so I don't really want that. And then vice versa. I mean, if you think the other teams, if you think the Ravens are going to win, I mean,

you're just better off just betting the Ravens money line. I don't know. I mean, like that's just like, it doesn't even make sense. See, I agree. I mean,

you can bet it, but you don't have an edge, right? I mean, so there are better ways to get down this week yeah totally baked in um next arizona is in san francisco san francisco 14 point favorites uh which is a big big number in the nfl 40 and a half is the total david blau back at quarterback for the cardinals. Hopkins is sitting here. We know the Niners need to take care of business to solidify the number two spot. They also have the ability still to win the top seed there.

Again, they'll need some help. But, I mean, 14 is a big number. It's hard to take 14 with David Blau in a game that the opposition needs to win. Conor, I'll let you get started with this one. Yeah, I think that we're probably going to see – it looks like Elijah Mitchell just got activated as well off of IR, kind of his windows open. I think we probably see a good amount of him.

Probably see some Jordan Mason, you know, kind of once the game gets out of hand. I doubt that they kind of force feed Christian McCaffrey here. 14-point favorites, like – I mean, this kind of qual feed Christian McCaffrey here. 14-point favorites. I mean, this kind of qualifies more towards my 10-point three-leg teaser kind of thing. Because, I mean, you can't lay 14 with this team because it's just so much. They don't care about winning by 30. They just want to win at all. So I just feel like when you're getting that amount of points in a team that doesn't necessarily need need a statement win at this point in the season or anything, like they just want to coach to the playoffs.

I have a lot of trouble laying the 14. So I do think that if you really want to bet on them, like them, I think the Eagles and there was one other team that the chiefs, I guess fall into that as well at like 10 points, do you get them at a pick? So I'll be submitting that as my, myleg 10-team teaser of the week, 10-point teaser of the week, because I think all those teams win. It's just that by that much, it's pretty tough.

And the Eagles obviously play at the same time. So, you know, we may get some coaches ringing in here at halftime saying, well, Eagles already up this much against the Giants' backup, so there's no need to really go all out in the second half. I do think we see quite a bit of George Mason this or Jordan Mason this game honestly so yeah not expecting too much here uh even last week David Blau was in he did the same thing a couple thanksgivings ago where he came out hot because he is a gunslinger for better or worse and he scored on the first drive of Thanksgiving and from that point forward just didn't matter

at all with 100 yards. It's the same thing that happened last week where he came out hot, and by the third quarter beat reporters were even tweeting out that they were hoping he gets benched soon for Trace McSorley again. So there's just nothing to see here with the Cardinals offense. His Thanksgiving game was the last time that Kenny G was relevant too. I feel like Kenny Galladay, our guy, throwback to that. that i mean we couldn't even get 10 targets for greg dorch to matter like knew it was coming and he got 15 yards so even like those props don't matter brutal brutal yeah it's a stay away uh

there's there's not a lot there and that kind of puts us into the next one which is essentially the same spots uh giants are on the road in philly giants are in the playoffs though they are going to the playoffs first time since 2016 soon to be crowned coach of the year brian dayball uh handling business down the stretch i mean 14 points again the eagles need this one connor um dayball's been kind of coy about who's playing uh but i think he maybe starts his guys and then pulls them quickly if that's so So I think this is actually interesting because Dable, even though he doesn't, they don't have like motivation, like players.

Okay. So technically the team has a motivation, but I don't think that doesn't mean that the team and Dable isn't going to try with the backups. Like Dable has a lot of tricks up his sleeve. Like he's, I mean, he's schemed this garbage team to the playoffs.

Like, you know what, who says he doesn't just try and like, you know, play around a little bit. Like I doubt he's just going to like run the ball 30 times and get out of there. Like, I think he might have some fun, you know, like try and, try and keep the game a little bit close to divisional game.

Like I think that this game is, I get the spread. I mean, the Eagles should absolutely want the giants. Like I, I get it. And on paper, even with their starters, it's a great match for Philadelphia. But even then I think the tables doesn't have to keep it close. So would personally lean like plus 14, but it's a little bit scary. So, um,

that was just my take. I don't know. I was thinking about it. I feel like he's a good enough coach to like actually do something with the backups, uh, you know, to make a difference.

It sounds like you want giants, uh, plus 24 instead of, uh, no, no, no, no,

no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no,

no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no,

no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I can't do that.

Coming over from Buffalo, Dable and McDermott always rested their starters in the last week. So I still think that's what happens here. At most, maybe we see like a Tom Brady, one drive first quarter, and then we pull Daniel Jones and everyone else knowing that this game doesn't matter at all.

So yeah, I think they play it pretty safe here. No lean on the number. I'm with Connor. If you can still get a full 14 out there that's probably my favorite bet but i do know you have to line shot for it it's gone down in some places yeah right now across the board 14 uh okay cool yeah minus 105 on draft kings so you're playing paying a little bit elsewhere but uh yeah draft kings minus 105 which is pretty pretty good look. Eagles messing around a little bit too much for my liking for this number one seed thing. I may have sweated out a little bit, but I think we're going to get home.

That Lane Johnson injury is very serious. It's concerning, even if Jalen Hurts is under center. Yeah, no, I agree. I think underrated story down the stretch here. Next, we have the Rams in Seattle. This game doesn't matter. Seattleattle six and a half we can skip that seattle is uh i mean there's paths but they got kind of screwed a little bit here in terms of you know scheduling with what's going on um obviously seattle needs to go out and win

that go ahead yeah the only thing that matters here is obviously Seattle, if they win, no. If the Rams beat Seahawks, then the Lions, by the time they kick off for Sunday Night Football, are then eliminated from the postseason. That's what really matters here. At the same time, Baker Mayfield has had two drives, not a full game, two drives against the Raiders and then against a Broncos team that quit. Those were his two out of four good games. So I have zero faith in the Rams. Yeah.

Seattle, also another team that continues to get beat up here down the stretch. Yeah. I mean, Jordan Brooks injury for them in the middle of that defense is impactful. It's not a great defense. He is, I think, a difference maker for them. And yeah, I think that that hurts them a little bit here. Probably not too much against the Rams, but not great to see moving forward. Dallas in Washington shot this because there are six and a halves and seven and a halves.

That's an impactful middle there. 41 is the total of most books. So 40 and a halves out there as well. Dallas is pretty much, they've been locked in for the most part for a while. Commanders just found out recently that they were eliminated, which is kind of wild to see. They're making the move to Sam Howell at quarterback after telling us this morning that they were going to give us Taylor Heineke again.

Seems to be a very interesting scenario going on in Washington, Connor. Any thoughts on commanders and Cowboys? Imagine risking your season on Carson Wentz, like your playoff berth being like oh we got to start carson i mean i get taylor heineke has been not great but man that was rough dangle i think you want to add something there right times two imagine risking your season and not knowing it with carson wins that's that's the caveat there imagine running it back because it sounds like they're not very interested in getting into the quarterback market this offseason and they want to see if they can do that again that's

i think maybe they're hoping that sam howell doesn't realize how big of a job interview this is next for next year like i think he actually can like go out and play really well and be the head guy going into camp next year if he shows out a little bit this week which is hey maybe he's the guy right like sam howell was at times last year at this time thought people might thought he was gonna be a first round pick so maybe he's the guy uh just seems to be a curious organization uh that is on and off the field for a number of years i also thought it was hilarious that they're like oh we're gonna start taylorineke, but we might see some Sam Howell. I'm like, just start Howell. What's the point at this point?

You already know what Heineke is, so at least give Sam a full game. So thankfully they at least did that, but at this point it doesn't really matter. So yeah, I mean, I have zero takes on this game, side, total. I don't know. It's just very strange.

I am excited to see Sam Howell, honestly. And for those who forget, Noonan, you already mentioned it, the former rumored number one overall pick. Also, he finished his career with 92 passing touchdowns in three or fewer seasons, which for reference to Sean Watson

and Trevor Lawrence had 90 in the ACC. So we have that. And then not only are rushing yards and turnovers two of the stickiest stats to carry over from college football to the NFL, but also completion rate on third downs, how you do on money downs. And on third down, even after losing in his final year, remember, he showed up his final year without Javante Williams,

Michael Carter, Diami Brown, and Daz Newsome, who laugh at Diami and Daz, their NFL drafted players, though. He didn't have any of them, and he completed 70% of his passes for no interceptions on third down in his final year. So I am actually really excited to see Sam Howe play. Sounds like a punt QB option in DFS this week. It sounds like I had to research Sam Howe, yeah. Slinging around.

I'm the donkey that threw out a Carson Wentz double last week in some single-entry stuff because I'm just an absolute moron. So, hey. Well, Dotson and Thomas still got there. I was just trying to get some leverage off of the B-Rob chalk. We've seen some YOLO games from Carson Wentz at times. They did not get there. Did they ever say why Jonathan Williams started?

He started and got the first few carries. It was so weird. I was like, why did they do that? Olivia Bryan Robinson, like 25 carries. We're just in the weird time of year. Even J.K. Dobbins had – that was his career. Was that his career high in carries he had? You are right.

Gus Buss was – yeah. Gus had three carries, and they asked John Harbaugh about it after the game, and he said, that's unacceptable. Like, we need to do something about that. Or someone needs – he used the term, someone needs to do something about that. It's like, bro, it's your team. You're the coach. What do you need someone?

Like, you go do – so I actually think we get less J.K. Dobbins this week too. Back on the Gus Buss train. I think we are back on the Gus Buss this week, honestly. Yeah, I know. I'm ready to get back on board. Love that. Love that bus. All right. Last Sunday night game.

We've already kind of mentioned briefly the lions and the Packers, the dynamic there with what's going on in Seattle, green Bay four and a half everywhere. 49, 49 and a half total, depending on where you go. Here's the thing. This is another one of those spots.

I totally agree. And you're correct. Seattle, like that game matters for this one. There is no shot that this is not a full-fledged game from a Dan Campbell-led team. Dan Campbell is not going in prime time in the division, in Green Bay, and laying down because they are already eliminated from the playoffs.

Now, you can tell me, and I can believe it, that maybe there is a trickle-down effect of how that impacts the players, knowing that they're already out of it. But he seems like a guy that can galvanize a locker room regardless of if there's anything to play for. Pride, all of those coach-speak, preseason stuff that we saw on hard knocks, he's that dude.

I think we get a full game from the Packers. I mean, from the Lions, that doesn't mean that they still don't get their doors blown off against Green Bay here, who is trending in the Packers. I mean, from the Lions, that doesn't mean that they still don't get their doors blown off against Green Bay here, who is trending in the right direction and obviously controls their destiny. They let you get started with Lions Packers. That's exactly my take on it too, that if the Rams win

and then the Lions have to realize that they're not playing for the playoffs, they spin it around. If there is a lie, you fight on that lie and then you convince yourselves that the packers are not making the playoffs if we can't and then you fight on that with the line though right now being four and a half points like there is going to be because remember the books move their line not like yes based on some money coming in but takes a lot of money to come in to move it favorably towards betters. It's going to be more about what will people be taking this line at? And if they see like the Rams are building a big leader or running away late, the Seahawks, like the books will budge this line

and keep going up knowing that people will keep laying the Packers, maybe even up to seven, just thinking, Oh, no motivation here. So I don't think four and a half is the best number we're going to get. I'm waiting on it till Sunday. I think we're gonna get a great number here and you can say whatever you want about like spin any narrative you want for Jared Goff, but like he hasn't thrown an interception since week nine. The Lions are top five in points per game. And that's including this stretch where a Monroe St. Brown was basically injured for an entire month around their by. You can say about the cold weather, but Jared Goff in a game, Connor especially knew it was going over against the Panthers,

threw for 330 and 350 and three touchdowns. So like there's no narrative you can say that's bad about this offense right now. They are a top offense in the league and they may not be in the playoffs. That's fine because they're coming out to compete.

So I'd like the Packers to win, but I definitely think we get a big and wrong number here. What do you think, Connor? You got to save that money, pay off that bet. He's ready to go when you get back. No, I know. Yeah, I've been thankfully spending, you know,

only a couple of pesos here and there and been saving my dollars. But no, I think that – I think you're right. That's a great call out that it probably will get bet up a little bit, you know, in some books here, like during Sunday. But, I mean, like I would have put this at like three and a half, I thought, because I think you guys are right with like Dan Campbell's already said, like,

we do not care if like we're out of the playoffs, we're going to win. Like we're going to play to win. We're going to play with the intensity to win. And maybe like mentally it impacts some of the players I could see like, you know, psychologically. But I mean,

these guys, like at the end of the day, like these guys are playing for their own money, playing for their own like futures. Like they have to put the best film on tape possible. So maybe they're a little bit demoralized, but I think they're going to go out there and still bust their ass. And Dan Campbell is still going to kind of motivate them.

So, yeah, if you can get a plus six closer to game time, that would be fantastic. If not, if that doesn't happen, I still think a plus four and a half is still a valid look here. Even though the Packers have been playing well, I think that the Lions match up plenty fine. And as long as their offense still hums, it should be a good look. I know Sharp Clark played the under at, I think it was, what did he play, 49.5 or something like that?

That seems pretty high. So I do like the under there a little bit, but I don't know. Any thoughts for you guys on the total there? For me, it's kind of just Lions or nothing. It's odd because the Packers, even being this number one defensive DVOA since week 10, allowing just 16 points per game in their last three weeks post-bye, even then they're allowing explosive plays both on the ground and the passing.

So I just keep looking at it thinking like the Lions can move the ball here. More importantly, like we talked about last week, knowing the Packers were one of only five defense in the league at that time, allowing over five yards per carry, we also knew the Vikings weren't going to try to run the ball against them because the Vikings know they can't run the ball and like Kirk Cousins raw pass attempts don't matter since he got kicked out of the game for sucking three quarters in but like they weren't trying to run the ball anyways at that time whenever all the starters were benched whereas we saw with the Lions yes they can move the ball well through the air,

but if they're allowing physicality on the other side to run the ball, then that's what they'll do with 33 running back carries with Jamal Williams and DeAndre Swift both dominating that game. That's what the Lions want to do. So man, it is a matchup, honestly, where almost like a Lions team total, I kind of like.

Let me see if we got one right now. It's not a bad look. But the total. I kind of like, Oh, let me see if we got one right now. B it's not a bad look, but, but total, but the total right now. So high. They're probably what? 21,

22. Yeah. They're probably a little bit on the other side. 22. You can get a, yeah. So DraftKings 21 and a half. MGM also 21 and a half.

DraftKings the best price juice on that. 22 and a half on fanduel and caesars that's still that's still probably a little too high so not too not too bad um yeah the interesting thing here is that so like yeah they detroit you think sometimes like oh you can lose and you can improve your draft position it's funny they actually have the rams pick in the first round so they actually want the rams to win so they have a chance to make the playoffs So it actually like hurts that pick a little bit as well, but still like they're going to be a spot to have two top 20 picks in the draft. Again, they had nailed the draft last year. They had a really, really good draft, um, on both sides of the ball last year, I think. So, um, they right

now have that spot. They could benefit from, you know, losing or having the Rams lose. And that could become a top five pick, uh, pretty pretty quickly depending on what happens in some of those other spots this weekend so be interested to see how that all that all shakes out so um we made it we made it through every game not too painful um i would say be on the lookout on sunday night for those playoff matchups to open up we just don't know really at this point when we record here on a Wednesday evening, what's going to happen with the other games and how that's all going to move. Cause we have a few spots.

We feel like we pretty much know what's going to happen. Like we pretty much have a Cowboys Buccaneers game in the first round of the playoffs, right? Like feel like we were a pretty good spot. It feels like an interesting spot as well. So some other ones that could be on the table, just look out for that when we get a better feel for when that stuff is going to come that'll be uh late sunday nights when those things start to happen so all right gents good stuff as always connor will be back connor and i on friday to do props props will be

very interesting this week as well books very reluctant to put stuff out um don't know how that's going to go but we'll do our best to figure it out put a show together we did it last year we'll do it again uh dangle what are we doing now grinds a little bit lighter but are we uh still doing playoff best ball stuff oh yeah and the playoff best ball if you're not subscribed to the most accurate podcast you should be because not only are the playoff best ball streams where chris g who won it the best ball gauntlet at underdog two years ago we usually open the show with updated strategy so not only our favorite late round players but also like seeds and where to gain levers before we actually jump into a draft

to have skin in the game but also if you subscribe now you can get ahead because like this part this show is also going to that feed as a simulcast as a playoff preview show during the postseason. So lots of moving pieces. Not to mention that if you did jump in for a discounted sub, which they're still very cheap right now, as you mentioned, I will also have playoff content, including starting next week, my playoff top 50 rankings that you can use for Underdog and FFPC. So still lots going on.

Love it. Again, 444.com slash plans. It's already discounted. You don't need a promo code. 34 bucks on the site. Ready for you. DFS MVP still going that day goes a part of as well. And like I said, golf, we're back golf. That's where it's golf sub to I got lineups in right now. I'm excited. Nice. I made a lineup today as well. I don't do a ton of DFS for a small field, 39 field,

no cut events. Um, but you know, we're betting we're, we're betting and we get primetime golf too, because they're in Hawaii. So it comes in a little bit later in the evening. It is a,

it's just as scenic of a golf course as we get there in Kapalua. It is unbelievable. So, yeah, back on the wagon. Bettsports Golf. Go to BettsportsGolf.com. Subscribe there. Discord over there is where we're putting out all those picks. We're talking about doing some stuff for our subscribers at 444.com as well on the betting side to get some golf picks over there as well.

If you just want to continue to tail picks and you're not necessarily grinding and want to use all the tools that we'll have on the Vetsports golf side, but excited to get some of that stuff into users' hands here in the next month or so, probably just before the Super Bowl. I'm pretty excited about stuff we got coming up over there. So yeah, good stuff as always, gents. So for Dagle and Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see you on Friday Thank you. you