Move The Line - FREE NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks | Expert Bets & Predictions

Episode Date: January 12, 2023

NFL Wild Card Weekend Preview! Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan & John Daigle get you ready for the Wild Card round of the NFL Playoffs. They share their top NFL bets, fantasy tips, and fantasy advice.Timestamps:0:00 Intro7:59 Seahawks-49ers18:39 Chargers-Jaguars27:34 Dolphins-Bills32:35 Giants-Vikings41:49 Ravens-Bengals50:05 Cowboys-Buccaneers58:15 Futures Bets1:00:47 OutroSHOW NOTESWant a FREE 4for4 Betting Subscription? Deposit $10 into a new BetMGM account using promo code 4FOR4 👉🏼  https://4for4.com/go/BetMGMGet a FREE 4for4 Pro or DFS Sub & Bonus Deposit Match up to $100 with Promo Code 4FOR4 on Underdog Fantasy (Minimum $10 deposit)  👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3BMECYuSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow John on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/notJDaigleVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3TbYo4X4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea

yeah hello welcome move the line ryan newton joined here by my friends conor allen john daigle super wildcard weekend. Conor, how we doing, bud? Good. We made it. We made it to the playoffs. It's awesome. Made it through my first full season in the industry. It was awesome. So it feels good to be here. Look at Daigle's smile. So happy.

Just beaming off of his face. Not even a lighting situation. It is actually just pure joy manifesting in light the smile of uh daigle who if you know again if you are a loyal 404 uh reader watcher listener any of those things first of all we appreciate that very much you also know that my friend john daigle has his hands in a lot of things uh and then a six game slate lightens the load for Dagle significantly. And that's why we see the smile on his face.

How are we doing? You say six games late. I say four games late. It's wonderful because we could delete two of these games now. So yes, everything's going well. It just gives more time, honestly,

to cover every angle. Whereas you're usually scrambling to get 16 games of content out there throughout the week. Plus that last month of football, everyone can attest, was bad. I mean, those holiday games were awful. So I would still argue there are a few teams who shouldn't be here playing, and we'll get to those games. But overall, yes, it becomes much easier and just better for everyone

because we can digest it now in a more thorough way. I can attest to that. We've actually evolved this show from what we've done for a handful of years previously. We would go game by game, regardless of the week. We would touch base on every game. And even if we didn't go deep into some of them, it was enough to have to tee them up and to have just kind of a three to four minute discussion on it

to do a little bit of research. We do for our own now. To not have to have it time crunched for a show is a different mode too. So I get that. I'm excited. So, yeah, playoff time. We are here. We'll be here every Wednesday through the playoffs here

discussing our favorite games on the board. Actually, this time is not just every game on the board. We're taking your questions as well. So if you are hanging out with us on YouTube, subscribe so you don't miss a show. Smash the like button. It goes a long way in helping us do lots of cool things here at 4-4.

And jump in the chat. If you're watching live, you want us to talk about a different angle that you like for Super Wildcard Weekend, side or total, let us know. We appreciate all that interaction as well. Also want to let you know that we have two episodes of move the line each

week, both available streaming here on YouTube, both available in podcast form as well, wherever you consume those podcasts. This is game previews, more sides of totals. Move the line prop drop is live 2 PM. Eastern every Friday, Pat Mayo, Connor, myself with props. Props have also been really hard the last couple of weeks because of whether it's injuries, motivation. We don't really know. You know, the last couple of Friday afternoons have been pretty thin.

We already have more to talk about right now on a Wednesday for Friday's show than we've had the last couple of weeks. And even then, we've been able to piece together more than, you know, 15 bets in that show for you. So, again, Friday, 2 p.m. Eastern, again, available YouTube podcast. There's also a 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel as well. Unique daily content there. So subscribe, check that out. Lots of different shorts. We'll continue to ramp that up here in the off season. Also a betting subscription at 4 for 4 is your best access to get all of our picks, props, and all of those things still now through the end of February. So I'll take you through the end of February so I'll take you

through the end of the Super Bowl a little bit longer covering MMA NBA college hoops we'll start to get into the draft stuff here but we're still grinding obviously the NFL side again that gets you literally access to everything on the site Daigle TJ still grinding the DFS side again you have these short slates you have these showdown slates. Still doing that as well. The betting sub gets you access to literally everything, every tool, article, and the Discord. $19 from now until the end of February. I mean, that's it. Like, I don't have any, you know, any other pitch other than it's literally $19. We're going to help you make that back real quick this week, and you're going to get a bunch of the rest of the playoff stuff.

You want to get in there for Daagle's underdog stuff and there, you know, all the different FFPC stuff that we've going on. Like we have all that discussion going on. You get access to all of that with the bank subscription and 19 bucks for your time. Check it out. I'm a,

I'm about to go in there and tell everyone to be overweight on Jordan Spieth and Brian Harmon tomorrow too. So we're coming at it from a lot of angles. Got Harmon at 40 to one Dagle, 40-1. I was laying in bed Monday morning. I wasn't even out of bed yet, and I knew a couple guys that were going to make the card. Harmon's 16 out there right now.

He got that century experience too? Oh, yeah, we're rolling this week. We're rolling with Harmon. I like the 40 a lot more than the 16, but, you know, again, you know, I'm a big fan. I lay myself under that clv makes me feel real good uh you know who cares what happens when we start but uh yeah we're gonna do some packages here with the bets birds golf and four for four betting here shortly as

well so um before we dive in to football who is brian harman he is a where did he come from i've never heard of this guy i mean i don't know a ton of golfers but i know like the majority of the card i feel like so who is he 35 he's been around for a little while very um small left-hander georgia bulldog actually we're gonna have a couple of georgia bulldogs it's a good narrative thank you attention this week yep break out his breakout was really last year and mostly because he got hot with his putter. He previously was the guy you laughed at like more call way.

Anytime he reached the green. Yeah. Harmon's a plane is probably, it's been around for a while, but playing his best golf of his career, he seems to do always do well at Augusta, regardless of like, you think he can't really hang.

Cause he's not long off the team. Yeah. Brian Harmon can, can hang. So all right. They didn't, I deterred the show. They didn't come here for that.

But that shows you that we have more time now because of that stuff too. Head over to Betzbert's YouTube page. Andy Molitor and I have a betting show every Tuesday. You guys are going to get a kick out of this. So you guys know that my car got stolen. I mentioned on the props show, my car got stolen while I was in Mexico last week.

And the best part about this is now i'm forced to buy new golf clubs because my golf clubs were in the back of my car so i will be retiring the most ancient golf clubs you've ever used or ever seen and i will be buying new ones so here we are i'm gonna make a renewed effort in the off season to be you know competent in golf and and they start with some new clubs. That's no crane winning 2 million and then winning a hundred percent of his head to heads on Sunday, the week after, but you're running pretty hot right now. He's not buying a new car, but he's going to buy new golf clubs,

which is great. Yeah. I mean, I'm going to, I can actually file that under like my, my homeowner's insurance as well. So, you know, be, those are, those are $2,000 golf golf clubs vintage vintage stuff yeah sam in the chat again mentions no more wooden woods for connor this is literally a factual thing connor in the year 2022 was using wooden woods correct um actual wood woods yes it's like the term is like a three wood. Connor is still using the wood version of that club. We've made great strides in the technology in the game of golf, and Connor has not been his thing.

You know, he's a little old-fashioned, but we'll jump into football now. Six games, six rematches, which I think is definitely an interesting element, and three of these are interdivision games this week as well. So this is the third time that these teams have faced off. So that helps us a little bit because we actually have a little bit of an understanding of what works and what didn't for some of these teams last time they met. That helps us get a feel for basically where the adjustments need to be made. And I think that that's an added element here.

We'll start with the Saturday afternoon game. First one, Seattle is on the road in San Francisco. Let me get the freshest of numbers for you here. Looks like there's a little rain in the forecast, which is going to be interesting to see how that impacts things here. Wind's not going to be too much of a problem. Nine and a half across the board, 42 and a half across the board from a total standpoint too, though points about sitting at 42, just a little bit off market.

Seattle into the playoffs, took them to overtime against the Rams team that had been really playing out the stretch. It's not a great sign for Seattle. They also needed help, obviously, on Sunday night with the Lions and Packers game, first playoff game in a season that I think we could say that Geno Smith has earned himself a playoff spot. And, you know, they played some good football, lots of injuries, especially on the defensive side

for that team here. And the Niners continue to roll. They've won 10 straight, I believe five in a row here with Brock Purdy, who's playing pretty good football. Again, we know you can step into the Shanahan offense and he's kind of a talent maximizer, especially at the quarterback position. We've seen it throughout his tenure there where he's been able to elevate the likes of Nick Mullins and the Brock Purdy at times. Even you could say Jimmy Garoppolo here, they are

nine and a half big, healthy favorite here, Connor. I'll let you get started with this one. Yeah. The key matchup for me comes down to San Francisco's running offense against Seattle's run defense here, because I expect them to have a ton of success on the ground. We've seen Seattle's run defense down the stretch, just get absolutely wrecked by multiple teams, you know, in multiple consecutive weeks. We saw, you know, before McCaffrey, you know, run, have 26 carries against them for over a hundred yards. I mean, they just got destroyed. Now we have a spot here where they're getting Elijah Mitchell back. He's healthy and good to go. So I think that we'll see a nice one-two combo of them. And on the other side of the ball,

I mean, Kenneth Walker, like they've rode him last, like the last few weeks. But I mean, when they've played against San Francisco, he had 12 carries with 47 yards. Like they're, I just, in those two games, they haven't really been able to get the running game going, which puts a lot of pressure on their passing game

to do something. And I'm not really sure that that's exactly where Seattle wants to be against the Niners team that, you know, for most of the season was really good. Weeks 1 through 16, they were fantastic. Weeks 17 and 18, you know, they were not so good against Jared Stidham. And even against David Blau at times, they didn't look awesome. So I'm a little bit concerned about that, but that's more of a future concern.

I don't really think that's a big concern here against Seattle. I originally did like Seattle at plus 10 because i thought that was too many points given what we've seen and just the the niners don't really want to put their foot on the gas here i think they're probably just going to run with the game but and now nine and a half for me it's a stay away uh two wins for sam rand in the uh season daigle 20 points eight points and i know it's really come down to pressure can they protect on third downs they weren't able to do so in the first two matchups i really think that's kind of where the handicap has come down um he was pressured on 49 of his third down passing attempts in the first

two meetings of the season averaged up the target on the year eight yards per attempt just 4.6 in the two meetings against the niners let's back up to start because the overarching picture of the wild card weekend are a bunch of large numbers and so people might try to be sharp and bet with in favor of these larger numbers just trying to get hooks trying to get covers here but remember since 1978 whenever wild card weekend began the spread has not come into play in either direction right so favorites dogs, the spread has not come into play in either direction, right? So favorites, dogs, whatever. The spread hasn't come into play in 88% of games.

Basically, whoever you think will win, you should just take them and the points. Whatever side that may be. Last year even, four of six games were decided by three scores. There are a lot of teams, every wildcard weekend, we get excited. And I believe that ruining optimism is equivalent to murder. Like you should never do that. But everyone gets excited about wildcard weekend. We watch it and we're like, oh yeah, that team should meet the playoffs. A lot of that this weekend, I'm thinking. But for the 49ers, I just don't know what else

you can give them in favor over the Seahawks. In the first game, no Brock Purdy, no Christian McCaffrey. In the second game, a short week on Thursday night, Brock Purdy's first career road start, no Debo Samuel, no Elijah Mitchell, and that team went out and averaged 6.2 yards per play. And then you factor in that, yes, this is Brock Purdy's first career playoff game, but it's also the same for Gino Smith and against the Raiders. This dude down by a field goal, drove the 49ers downfield. They kicked a field goal, drove them down again. The next possession after they forced the Raiders to punt, they went up and then the Raiders of course,

come back, tie the game. And with less than four minutes remaining, Brock Purdy drives the field and they score a touchdown, the 49ers in that drive. And then of course, again, drove them in position to the game winning field going overtime. That's basically three game winning drives from the fourth quarter on. I don't know what else you can throw at Brock Purdy until people realize he's good and he's the X factor here. So I don't believe the narrative about him being it's his first time in the playoffs either. The Reign, yes, is the great equalizer here because that would negate the 49ers pass rush, which is the biggest proponent for the 49ers in this game,

and would likely lead to a run-heavy game script for both sides. Ken Walker, Connor already mentioned, this was his first game in that 49ers matchup off injured reserve, and Travis Homer was active for that game. But the last three weeks without Travis Homer, Ken Walker averaging 26 carries per game. They have no other offense in that span. Over the last month, Geno Smith has averaged 5.6 yards per attempt.

He's been awful. And so if there is rain, and this is the reason why our friend Drew Densick, well capper, is also, I know, picking the Seahawks to points because he thinks like the game script, the weather is going to ruin this opportunity. That could be the case. But honestly, if it's not for weather, I think the Seahawks just lay the wood here because they are the significantly better team at every single position.

And that's the way I'm viewing it right now. Yeah. 49ers, you think, lay the wood. Yeah, our sides and totals guru, Sharp Clark, also on the Niners. And that in itself, I'll be honest, I respect those handicaps, right? I respect if Dintzik is on that. I respect if Clark is on that.

I do kind of agree, though. To me, especially at 9.5, it's Niners or nothing. I just feel like that's to your point. Do you want to back the team that's going to win? I feel like the Niners are equipped to handle the rain. If they need to lean run heavy, to your point, we really haven't had full-strength Niners at times. We just have had little guys dinged up here and there, Kittlebo we didn't elijah mitchell we didn't have cmc with

a full year and yeah i mean you could say that the quarterback issue is still there because he's injured but like we've seen enough of brock purdy he's been really good um and again like shanahan knows how to protect these guys and just they know how to like maximize the talent and seattle's really struggled with defending yards after the catch they've allowed i believe the third highest rate of yards after the catch this season and we know that is just a design of kyle shanahan's offenses year in and year out they always lead the league in yak um and that's not always because of the guys that they have being able to be playmakers it's just scheme it's schemed completion percentage over expectation is just you know crossers mesh that stuff that just he knows how to just complete and set his quarterback

up for success so even into your point it is a neutralizer but i do think that it is also bodes well for the Niners and what they want to do as well. Seattle didn't even win that game last week. Baker Mayfield lost that game with five sacks, 140 yards, and that awful pick to no one in overtime. Geno Smith was trying to give that game away. And so again, maybe the weather plays into factor here.

I know, Connor, you played ken walker under his rushing prop yards which has since sunk so you can't even get the better number right now and although i am a little worried because he is the type of player to pop a big one off and ruin your prop in any given week especially since we know for a fact even dj dallas is on the injury report hasn't practiced by when on wednesday yet so it could be an even bigger workload for walker and that's always concerning because he could ruin the prop with one carry um but at the same time the only player to go over 60 rushing yards against this Niners defense all year was Josh Jacobs in week 17 and he only reached 69 yards they just don't leak production

on the ground at all so yeah I fairly confident in the Niners covering here. Yeah. Same Niners, Niners at this point or nothing. I also do think there's some, some great ways to play this. Otherwise I think Ken Walker under is a solid look at 60 still, but it's, I mean, literally last time I know that there's, you know, Travis Homer playing, but it was his first game off IR, but it was literally his line was like 50 was 48. And then he ended up with 47 rushing yards. And now we're getting in the playoffs. He's at 60, it opened at 63. And I was like 50 was 48. And then he ended up with 47 rushing yards. And now we're getting in the playoffs. He's at 60, it opened at 63.

And I was like, well, you know, I guess I get it because he's been crushing it lately. It's seeing a ton of work, but like at a certain point, like if you're down, there's not gonna be able to function that way.

And I would say, I mean, the Niners like running into the teeth of the Niners defense isn't always, isn't very advantageous. So maybe he gets there on volume, but like you literally, I think I included in the writeup, you would need like 20 carries to get there.

And also look at Debo Samuel props whenever you get around to it. Because remember the first two games from Brock Purdy, Debo Samuel led this team in targets with a 24% target share. Disappeared. And then only then did George Kittle, who was fourth on the team from Brock Purdy and targets in that span. Only then did he create that 26.7% target share, three and a half yards per route run, has led the league in receiving touchdowns since week 15.

But again, that only happened once Debo got injured. So I think there's a lot of volatility in Kittle's outcome, especially because like this last game, everyone remembers with the two touchdown performance from Purdy, that was Debo's first game out. And thus it all trickled down to Kittle. So I am very interested in Debo props this week as well. Yeah, that gave me pause. I actually wanted to originally fire my initial notes for the week from Monday. I wanted to look at Kittle because we've just seen tight ends do work on the Seahawks all season long. And then I kind of got around to similar spot where I'm like, well, I

think the Debo thing can temper that based off of, again, a small sample, but I do think that at least, you know, just kind of curtails a little bit here and you get the weather element too. So there's a couple of things working in his favor or against him from being in a good spot, even though the matchup is pretty advantageous. So I'll move on to the Saturday nightcap. We got these two young quarterbacks, two debuts in the playoffs here with the Chargers in Jacksonville.

This one's moved a bunch. You can argue it's not been necessarily impactful movement, but again, we're bouncing around between the pick and two on the Chargers side. There is a two and a half out5 out there on FanDuel, again, leaning towards Jacksonville, so it's close to coming back to 2. You've got a total out to 47.5. I don't know what happened last week with the Chargers.

It was really strange. I mean, they had everything locked up. I'm sure you've heard lots about that already this week. I don't really know what they were doing with the starters out there that are kind of dealing with some of the consequences. Mike Williams dinged up uh did not practice today joey bosa dinged up there he looks like he's gonna be okay but this is a rematch from early this season week three where the jags absolutely destroyed the chargers a couple things in that one they did not have keen and allen and we've seen keen and allen just totally changed the dynamic of this charge team it's also about 10 days after justin herbert got

absolutely crushed in that chiefs game was probably playing with broken ribs and really struggled but i mean the jags boat raced the chargers in that one thumping them big time at home so now they have the rest advantage which is weird here in the playoffs they have a little bit of advantage because they played there on Saturday as well. I think I'll let you get started with Chargers-Jacks. No Keenan Allen in that first matchup as well, and that's made all the difference since Herbert has averaged over eight yards per attempt with Allen on the field so far this year.

But Mike Williams likely missing from this game, DMP through Wednesday. Not to mention we're still monitoring Joey Bosa's injury, and those both matter significantly here. Also, what we keep doing, and as someone who has had skin in the game with the Chargers the past two months, I can tell you the wrong road to take is to keep wish-casting their offense into something they aren't. There's a reason why Justin Herbert finished dead last in the league in air yards per attempt. The offensive approach will not change under Joe Lombardi.

And so I don't want to suddenly say like, yes, the Jaguars defense led the league in EPA per play in the last month. But also we know it doesn't matter because they closed the year against turnover prone Dak Prescott, Zach Wilson, Davis Mills, and Josh Dobbs in that time. I don't want to just suddenly forecast Justin Herbert into this ceiling game when he's had opportunities. Whenever he played the Colts and finished with 212 yards and no touchdown. Whenever he played the Rams and scored two touchdowns

and was still under 250 passing yards. And then last week goes into the fourth quarter for no good reason against the Broncos, meaningless game, and doesn't go over 300 yards either. So I am a little bit concerned here, but at the same time, yes, the Jaguars defense is significantly bad. And at least we know Trevor Lawrence had turned a corner, especially inside the red zone two months prior to last week's performance

because the narrative is totally different. If the Jags don't recover that fumble in the fourth quarter and go on to win the division, then it's all of a sudden, Trevor Lawrence doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things, can't play well in big games since he never played well in bowl games throughout college. Instead, it's now Trevor Lawrence is the next coming and the Jaguars are going to immediately win this game.

So honestly, I would just say be careful because there are thousand ranges of outcomes for this contest. And we've been led astray far too many times for believing the Chargers offense is what it is not. So I will pick in a vacuum the Chargers, but I admittedly don't have confident money on it as I do the 49ers. Yeah, Connor, not insignificant movement,

because anytime we're moving, it matters. It's definitely going to impact money line prices and stuff like this, which are going to make a difference when we're dealing with you know playing around inside the three but um you know are the jags an interesting teaser like because i think they are so i i think there's a couple things here one herbert we saw last time he played you you said he was hurt so on the season as a whole if we exclude that game he had a 73 on target throw rate that game he had the worst on target throw rate of his of his season it was like 60% or worse. So at that point you know, I don't think, especially without Keenan Allen, you know, really struggled, but then we look at this Jaguar

secondary. So Cleve TA tweeted this out and I thought this was perfect on the whole season. They're 17th in EPA and pass passing EPA per play. If you exclude the games against bottom five passing offenses, they're 31st and we've seen them play against two top five passing offenses this year. They allowed 331 passing yards in Mahomes. They allowed 330 to Jared Goff and the Lions who by DVOA is a top five passing offense, which I mean, I think is arguable, but they're efficient to say the least. I think they're like French top 10 at worst, depending on the ranking. So they're like first and offensive DVOa over like the last six weeks so detroit is in the conversation right so so i think those are things are interesting here

and we look at like the jags makeup here defensively like in their secondary they have uh they have campbell a corner who's played awesome i mean he's like pff's fifth grade corner he's played really well the rest of their secondary is literal garbage i mean it's like so bad so i mean i want your mouth about ray sean jenkins your your guy ray sean is a tackle. I mean, it's like so bad. So, I mean, I'm... Watch your mouth about Rayshon Jenkins. Your guy, Rayshon, is a tackle god. I mean, but he can't do much else than other than tackle because, you know, they're letting up big gains. But I mean, I think regardless,

I do think Daigle's point there, though, about it's like a massive range of outcomes. I personally like the over in this game because I think that the Chargers have success when passing the ball. Even if they don't skew pass, I do think they have success. And then I think that the Jaguars have success running the ball. And we've seen Doug Peterson kind of scheme up different plans based on who they're playing. The Charters run defense has

been horrible. The first game they played, they combined James Robinson, you know, Dusty Scott running back in the league at this point and Travis Etienne combined for 145 rushing yards. I think Travis Etienne could have a ceiling day, even if they're behind a little bit. But I think he could have a big game. And I expect both sides to have success here. And I think that Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are volatile enough. I wouldn't say good enough, but volatile enough to pass into any secondary at this point

and have reasonable success. And the Chargers secondary has played better as of late, but they're still burnable. And so I think in this spot here, I like the over 47.5, especially if the Chargers can push the pace at all. Travis Etienne has played the Titans in two of his last five games, which as we know, you don't have success against. We were under his props this past week. And of course he went under, but the three games in between those two matchups against the Titans, he averaged six and a half yards per touch.

They just gave him the ball at will. And we know this Charters defense, despite having a better EPA, despite being better in defensive DVOA since week 13, I think because they've gotten healthier in that time. In that span, they've still permitted a top seven rate of 10 yard runs with 5.2 yards per carry. So I foresee a massive Travis Et in game as well. Sequencing matters because here's the one thing that Jacksonville's defense does really well. They are terrific at stopping the run on first down. Their base is ready for you to run into them and they've done it really well all season. They are, I think, fourth in DVOA on first down rush defensive DVOA. The rest of it is bad. Passing on first down, defensive DV away. The rest of it is bad passing on first down running on set, like all of it.

But if you want to run into them on first down, they have been really good at putting you into second and long and making you kind of work and stay behind the chains. So that's going to be on the play caller and figuring out the sequencing. You cannot overstate the Keenan Allen piece, because as you mentioned, I think the dynamic of the offense is totally different. And then the Jags, that's really been where they've been

like hemorrhaging production against their opponents. They are 29th in DVOA against slot receivers this season. Amon Rock dominated them. CeeDee Lamb had a monster game against them in the slot. We're basically going to see Keenan Allen eat here. And I imagine a lot of dump downs still with early stuff and low ADOT stuff on Eckler too. I wish the prop number was a little bit better.

It's four and a half juiced out there. That would be of interest to me too, especially what they need to do offensively, Dago, when you don't have Mike Williams here, which again, as of now, not practice, as of Wednesday night as we record. In eight career games with Justin Herbert, where Mike Williams has either been limited or inactive altogether,

Keenan Allen has seen 29% of the team's targets. I'm going to bet ladders. And if it were not for Justin Jefferson playing against man coverage, we'll get there when we get to that game. I think Keenan Allen would lead wildcard weekend in targets. Don't hate that at all. Yeah, Keenan Allen, six and a half receptions i think is the numbers definitely uh definitely an interesting look so uh hang out for the prop show on friday

see if we have more uh if you subscribe 19 bucks you can get in the discord and see if dave will put that out as an official play this week so i i kind of wanted to steal some props from y'all already but i didn't want to test up on your toes uh no get in there fire okay there's some really good numbers out there I like a lot. There's some stuff. Yeah. We hug it. If we like it, we get in there.

It's all good. I might get in there after this, though. Yep. No worries. We're a family. All right. Sunday. Sunday.

We have Miami and Buffalo. Obviously, a lot going on there. We are out to 13, 13 and a half in some spots. On the Buffalo side, 43 and a half looks to be the total here. This is, you know, again, not long ago, you know, close to seven. And we had movement, you know, nine and a half, 10 with thoughts. It was moving towards Miami. We thought two was coming back.

By all accounts, as we sit here currently, again, Wednesday night recording, this feels like a Skylar Thompson start. They are preparing him to get ready uh teddy's dealing with both a knee and a finger issue to uh thank you still dealing with concussion and is not out of concussion protocol um this is not the spot to throw him back into the wolves again miami could not catch a break down the stretch could barely beat a joe flacco led team there uh to get into the playoffs but here they are connell let you get started 13 points miami and buffalo yeah it sucks because i really thought we were going to get to the line moved a little bit uh yesterday it went from like 10 and a half to nine which i thought was a pretty good uh you know

thought there the two is going to play uh but now we're getting scholar thompson. I mean, they're said they're preparing as a scholar Thompson is going to start. Uh, what an absolute disaster. I mean, he's been with what a coach that we consider to be one of the best offensive minds in the game right now, considering two is improvement from year one to year two. I mean, right now scholar Thompson has completed 60 of 105 passes, 57% completion rate, 530 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions, averaging five yards per attempt. I mean, just absolutely pathetic despite having, you know, Tyree kill, despite having Jalen Waddle now playing against a pretty tough Buffalo defense.

You know, they're not the same as they were, uh, you know, in previous years, but there's still a good unit, um, you know, top five and basically every metric. So I don't see how the dolphins have a chance like at all. Um, I know we've talked about, you know, teasers at some points throughout the week, but I mean like, this is what just one of those teams that it would take like, you know, a blocked punt and like multiple pick sixes bouncing off of like players for the dolphins to keep this game close. Because I don't see a way where Buffalo doesn't at least put up like 24 and Miami. I mean, their team total right now is like what? 14 and a half. I mean, I don total right now is like, what, 14 and a half.

I mean, I don't even think they're going to score 14 and a half. How? So, I mean, I really struggle to see how they have a ton of success here. And Buffalo didn't lose a single game by more than three points this year. So, you know, they keep it close regardless. I don't think they're a boots to throats team anymore without Brian Dable, honestly. So it's not like I necessarily expect them to dominate through the passing game

and then call it quits, akin to the massacre in Foxborough when they opened the playoffs last year against New England. But honestly, it's a game where I expect just Devin Singletary and James Cook to dominate. Josh Allen is well on the ground because like Connor said, the Dolphins can't carry their weight

with Skylar Thompson here. 57% completion rate. They're on one touchdown all year. Even Tyreek Hill, like their best player, averaged over 10 yards per target from Tua. And from Skylar, when he's been on the field, it's been cut in half just to five yards per target. It's a mess. So it's just one of those games where if it's less than 14 points, you lay the points and just don't watch the game.

Tyreek's dealing with some stuff too, right? Like he had to really kind of tough through that. I imagine he's playing and they need him. And I, you know, but still like, you'd rather have him healthy, right? You'd rather have Raheem Mostert there too to kind of try to balance. If you want to play, you know, clock and game control

and just say, hey, we're going to just do our best to limit Skylar Thompson's decisions that he has to make. We're going to try to keep Josh Allen on the sideline, and we're just going to run it with these two guys. You can't even do that because Mostert is dinged up as well. So it's a real, real tough spot for Miami, who, again, has not had a lot of playoff appearances in the last handful of years and gets there,

and unfortunately they got to run out Skylar Thompson. To that point, that was Miami's answer in this last matchup because, yes, Miami played the Bills close in both games. It was with Tua, and even in the last matchup because yes Miami played the bills close in both games but it was with Tua and even the last game he wasn't good but he at least was good enough to complete crossers to Jalen Waddell to spike big plays and big touchdowns but they still had 23 running back carries their most their highest run play rate in a game with Tua after their buy where he most or averaged eight yards per carry on 17 rushes. He had a 20-yard catch.

They won't even have him in this game, I don't think. So I just don't know how to paint a pretty picture here other than the Bills just kind of walking to the divisional round. Yeah, that was how they limited and won the first game is they kept Josh Allen on the sideline. I think the Bills had like 40 plays in that game in Miami in the heat, which is just a wild game. And they played in some crazy, crazy games this season

with like extreme heat and extreme cold. And now this one's going to be just probably extremely boring. And like you said, it starts Sunday. And yeah, it's going to be kind of a snoozer. The prime spot, shockingly, is the Giants and Vikings, of all things, on Sunday afternoon. This one painted three across the board. 48, 48 and a half is the total, depending on your books.

You can shop around if you have a lean there. Again, this is a rematch. We saw this game not too long ago. Came down to a last second field goal. We know how these teams want to play. We know what these teams want to play. We know what these teams want to do. They are, I think in terms of like, you get a lot of these teams that can be, you know, a little bit more pliable schematically depending on the matchup. And I think the Giants and Vikings for

the most part are very true to who they are identity wise in terms of what they like to do defensively, what they like to scheme up offensively, and I think it makes that a little bit of an interesting chess match to see what adjustments are made and what are not. You brought up an interesting point, Dago. I'll kick it to you to start. The one thing that I found interesting in digging into this is that the Giants brought pressure, as we know they're going to do.

We know that Wink Martindale is going to blitz a ton. They blitzed 44% of the drawbacks in that first game they didn't play a lot of man relative to how much they play man in that one which i think is interesting they typically are a team that plays a lot of man behind the blitz and in that matchup they played a little bit more zone than normal so i'm interested to see if there's something that goes if that was a chess match or if they knew hey there's a chance maybe we rematch these guys in the playoffs so obviously we know that trying to bracket Justin Jefferson with man coverage and the safety over the top did not work uh he should probably feast here but uh it should be a fun one my concern is that the Vikings offense has become

one dimensional and we've touched on this in the past, but now in his last seven games, Dalvin Cook has averaged 3.4 yards per carry. Against Chicago's backups, he averaged 3.3 yards per carry before he got injured. Even Alexander Madison had success in going over five yards per carry on 10 runs. Whereas, remember, Kirk Cousins averaged 48 pass-tens per game

and three weeks prior to being forced off the field in that third-quarter blowout against the Packers. He had 31 attempts to that point, though. And then, of course, throws 20 passes in the first half in Week 18 against Chicago. Like, they know their only way to move the ball right now, despite the Giants being a poor run defense, they know they can't run the ball. And thus, it's going to lead them to only throwing the ball.

And that's why I think we're going to see a ton of volume for Justin Jefferson. Yes, maybe they come with more zone, but I still think in a game that matters the most, in a one-and-done situation, we're still going to get Wink Martindale blitzing and continuing to blitz at the league's highest rate. And since T.J. Hawkinson was required mid-year in Week 9, Justin Jefferson, you wouldn't think so, but behind the scenes,

his rates have only gone up against man coverage because now we have Hawkinson alleviating some pressure in the intermediate level of the field. Justin Jefferson, since week nine, is fourth in yards per route run against man coverage with 20 yards per catch against that scheme. So I honestly think it's a situation where we're flop lagging the 194 you needed last week. And we get that in a high volume game this week.

But, but although I am the sucker and I am the fish that are betting the Giants money line, I will say if you go into the pro football reference database, quarterbacks in the last four years since they expanded the extra wildcard teams, first year quarterbacks are 5-13 against the spread

when playing against veteran situations. So that would be my one concern here, given that it's Daniel Jones' first appearance in the playoffs. But in day bowl, we trust. And that's another thing. They shifted a little bit more in that game, and they knew this perimeter defense for the Vikings cannot do anything. And they chucked it around and had success Richie James had a great day Isaiah Hodgins like these guys that we've been like

how in the world is this team in the playoffs um like these guys are starting to like to do some stuff um again it's an interesting unit um Connor love to get your thoughts in this matchup yeah I think it's notable too that the Vikings are going to be on, I believe it's their third-string center at this point, and their offensive line is banged up, whereas the Giants are continuing to get healthier defensively. And, you know, Daniel Jones, like you mentioned, crushed the last time 330 passing yards against his Vikings defense, which I think, as we all have talked about, is really not all that good.

And, you know, quarterbacks have been able to succeed against them. I mean, it was like Isaiah Hodgins, Richie James were both, you know, threatening with a hundred yards in that one. I mean, guys that should not be doing that, but we're having tons of success. So I'm not really sure that I expect this game to be the kind of, I guess it was like a mini shootout 27, 24 last time. But you know, in this spot here, I kind of like the giants at plus three. I don't know. I mean, Vikings are, it's been talked about throughout the industry, you know, easily the worst team given their record in like DVOA history right now, 27 overall and the Giants are 21st.

And the fact that the Giants are 21st with the talent they have is pretty incredible. I mean, they're 10th in offensive DVOA, which is nuts given that they have no one. They have Saquon Barkley, who's been like, you know, literally gone up and down the whole year with after his workload increased, he couldn't do anything as Daigle, you know, proudly noted mid season. And, you know, Daniel Jones, who has been basically a below replacement level quarterback for most of his career until, you know, this year where he's been, I guess, I don't know, average above average, I guess,

which is a big deal with if Brian Dable could do that with no weapons. So, yeah, I don't know. I think that in this spot here, I like the I don't know, average above average, I guess, which is a big deal with if Brian Dable could do that with no weapons. So, uh, yeah, I don't know. I think that in this spot here, I like the giants plus three, but I don't know. I don't have a ton of conviction because I don't just don't want to bet on this team. My other strengths, my arguments for also the giants would be that since week 10, they have an higher, higher EPA per play, just two spots, 13th to 15th, but higher EPA per play than the Vikings, so they've been better behind the scenes in advanced rates. Daniel Jones actually leads all quarterbacks in completion rate

and touchdown rate inside the red zone since week 10. And if you are leaning towards a prop bet, I will flag plant Richie James over Isaiah Hodgins this week. The Vikings have thrown a bunch of shit at the wall the last five games. They're just trying something new because their defense is so bad. And what that's led to is them being top six in man coverage in that time. And that's actually made them quite good against boundary receivers, or at least better than they were by a significant margin. But at the same time, they've allowed the second most touchdowns to slot receivers in that span

and the second most yards per game in the slot as well. And of course, that's Richie James' territory. And from weeks 12 through 17, whenever James entered the starting lineup, when he returned from injury, he's the only player on the Giants who soaked up a 20% target share in that time. So I like Richie James a lot this week.

Yeah, I like him. I like the number two. I think his prop is like, I think like 45 or something. We're going over. Yeah, eight for 90 in the first game. So the Giants in the last six weeks, offensive DVOA, their fifth. On the season, every game, they are the top red zone offense in the league in DVOA. They are the number one passing offense in the league.

If this isn't the coach of the year, people, I don't know what we're doing here. This is the coach of the year with this just absolute mismatch unit that is scheming things up really well. I don't know. It's insane. And you mentioned too, Connor, like the injury issues up front for the Vikings, I think are key. Garrett Bradbury, Brian O'Neill, I think both are kind of set to miss this one. That's another thing to Dago's point. Like the Giants have started to get more out of their front four here, especially as like Thibodeau started to come on as the season's gone. They could probably get there without bringing the house, which will allow them to protect a little bit more and, you know, bracket and do things to be able to cover both hawk underneath and allow you to you know responsibly double justin jefferson i mean i just haven't heard a

lot of pro vikings thoughts and i i just haven't heard anyone really can with conviction be like yeah like three's the right side now the market will tell you that there's so much pro giants in the space and it's not moving right they are not coming down to two and a half which is again something that i think we need to have a little respect for so i'm there again i haven't heard anyone be like yeah i love minnesota i'm laying the three they are the better team and they're gonna take care of business the only thing that i thought to uh that is like i guess a pro vikings at least offensively is you mentioned you know kirk versus man like through the first like eight or ten games kirk was like one of the worst quarterbacks

against man coverage actually like right prior to their game against the patriots i believe it was um where he ended up uh playing pretty well and then against the giants played really well and so then like and also against pressure so like and against the blitz, he was like some of the, one of the bottom tier quarterbacks, but it's like gotten much better throughout the season. So, you know, I guess that's a point where if he can overcome those factors that he really struggled with, I mean, the first eight weeks, literally like a bottom feeder, uh, in those metrics, if you can overcome that, then maybe the offense, you know, can put up a bigger number that the giants can't come back from, but I just don't see a way that the Vikings defense is really able to stop the giants off. It sounds hilarious, but

I mean, I just kind of feel that way. I just don't, I don't see it happening. All right. It's another divisional matchup. We have a rematch actually of last week's game. Baltimore is on the road in Cincinnati. A lot of movement here around quarterback issues as well. Eight and a half across the board, 40 and a half is the total for you. And we had a lot of concerns about, are we maybe going to finally see Lamar Jackson? We know in a similar situation to Miami, the backup is also dealing with an injury. So you're really dealing with the potential of either the starter coming back finally, and that changes the dynamic a lot, or the third stringer who really has no business being in a football game at this level in the playoffs.

And no disrespect to Anthony Brown, his family. Congratulations, terrific career at Oregon. This is just a totally different space for you. And here we are. This is moves basically six and a half. We're out there, you know, 24 hours ago. We're basically through there. Eight and a half.

Connor, let's get started with Ravens Bengals. Yeah, I mean, I rocked the Bengals at minus seven. I mean, we got worried that Lamar was not going to play. And so we were I was hammering that. I put him in a bunch of teasers. You know, I was just like, I mean, everything like I could see the way that the Ravens keep it close defensively because, uh, I'll let Dagle dive into it more, but you know, their offensive line has really struggled. Their offense hasn't been the same without it. And so at this point here, like I could see the Ravens defensively,

it's putting up a little bit of a fight. They kind of shut down T Higgins last week. Uh, Jamar, obviously it's still at a big day, but,, but you know, I think that there's enough reason to keep it close. I just, there's this office will have no signs of life. You know, they, the only way that like a good game at all, or like move the ball was like occasionally a big run that they would have. And that was like random. They, Anthony Brown through just horrendous picks multiple times that are like game ending interceptions basically. So the fact that the game was even, you know, as close as it was, it was pretty surprising. But I think in this spot here,

like they already saw what they, what Anthony Brown is. He's not an NFL quarterback. The matchup is pretty bad. The Bengals run defense with DJ reader is awesome. So like, I have no faith in the Ravens here covering the number at eight and a half. So I still lean towards the Bengals,

honestly up to 10. But I still, and I think that that will move there that way. Oncear is like officially officially out right now he's technically like trending out but he's out he's not gonna play my only concern with the Ringles covering which is why I don't have a side on the line is that I think this game is so low scoring that like maybe the Bengals can't even score enough to cover this game uh but yes, you're right. Anthony Brown is not an NFL quarterback. He wasn't at Boston College either, which doesn't make any sense why he suddenly put in this situation.

And remember in the last matchup these two teams played, or their first matchup, excluding Week 18, since that one doesn't matter. They didn't have any of their starters on offense out there, thus no one to push the Bengals into any ceiling performance. No Tee Higgins, and that matters because Burrow has completed 72% of his passes with Tee Higgins on the field this year, compared to just 61% without Higgins.

At the same time, like, dude, these last two games, losing Lyle Collins and then this past week losing right guard Alex Kappa, who is essentially an all-pro interior player, that's big. And so I know it's a short stint. It's not a big sample. But in Burrow's last seven quarters, I think that's the reason he's averaged 5.4 yards per attempt, two touchdowns, just two picks.

And that was in that Patriots game where everything started going downhill in the second half. And everyone said, oh, the Patriots changed things up at halftime. No, I genuinely just think it's because they had to change their game plan because Burrow is under duress. Teams are still playing two-eye safety against him a majority of the time as well. And that's why I think we've seen Joe Mixon with 14 targets the past two games. So I just don't think there's a ceiling performance for anyone in this game. And I expect it to be really ugly. Bengals, ultimately, I expect to get the job done, just given how poor the Ravens offense is. They were fourth in offensive DBOA with Lamar Jackson, top 10 in points per game and yards per play as well, which is why I was hoping we were getting Lamar, because

I really think the Bengals could win this game outright. But without him and on their third string quarterback, there's no chance here. Yeah, I agree with everything that you both said. I took some six and a half. I took some six and a half and added like, you know, money lines for, you know, the Niners and money lines for, you know, Buffalo. Like I mixed it up a little bit because I wanted to try to get as much down there as I can, but I kind of agree with Daigle and actually Steven Ruiz from the ringer had some interesting notes here. The two games against Baltimore this season, the Bengals have completed just seven passes of more than 10 air yards on the season, which is not really their MO. And then the success rate for bro is drastically different to on the season,

non Ravens matchups, bro success rate, 50.3%. And the two matchups against the Ravens, 36.6%. And Baltimore's doing it without getting a ton of pressure. They're just giving him, I think, a lot of interesting pre-snap looks that is enough to pause and hold Burrow to throw the ball a little bit later. And that could become a factor with the offensive line injuries kind of mounting. So I do think the Bengals earlier were the right side. Eight and a half is a little much, but again, like, man,

I don't want to turn the cards over when that game starts and I have an Anthony Brown ticket. Like that would feel awful. So I do think it's probably still Bengals or nothing. Again, this is probably more so than the first game I talked about as a teaser-like because of that game with Jacksonville and the Chargers. Dagle mentioned the range of outcomes is pretty vast and you're dealing with a high total.

In a spot here where we can take the Bengals, tease them under the seven, past the seven, past the three in a low scoring game. This is like a prototypical wet dream long teaser leg. And I think the Bengals are a great one if you're looking to dabble there this weekend. It's also Jarn Harbaugh in playoffs versus zach taylor who got really lucky the dominoes fell perfectly for the bingos last year if you asked me which big favorite you would think

loses outright if you had to pick one this week it's absolutely the bingos man i i'm worried that the ravens defense wins this game yeah i mean it mean, it's a hard boss. Yeah. I mean, the coaching mismatches, especially in the playoffs, I think is, is sizable. Part of it for me is I'm just kind of a burrow sucker. Like I just, you know, I love, I buy into all the swag. I buy into all the narrative. I think that he's kind of that dude. So I think that's why he was able to kind of elevate Zach Taylor through some of those things. And I think he is kind of that kind of guy.

So the offensive line injuries are an issue, but maybe they're kind of getting back to the same type of offensive line they had last year. It was good enough to take them to the playoffs. Again, as you mentioned, easy path, but be harder this year. They're a terrible futures bet because of that. Because yes, you may escape this one, but then in order to make the Super Bowl,

you are guaranteed to basically go on the road against Buffalo and Kansas City. You can't get past both. And then if you get there, then you have to beat the 49ers or Eagles most likely. So it's like the Bengals, if you win this year, congratulations, because you've earned it this year.

You do not want that. We can't have that for you. Yeah, I think they will have to delete the account or at least delete the tweet uh if that happens because there will be some i'm sure some bangles beat writers hopping in your mentions again just like there was in the preseason you know uh victory lapping again over you know something that i thought was actually a pretty reasonable take imagine imagine rooting for teams uh yeah these people come i got a guy that just pops up he's a lions fan i don't even remember

saying anything bad about the lions i think i no not can you she doesn't count uh i don't remember mocking i think i mock the phrase restore the roar because i don't know what you're restoring they've sucked forever yeah but like you know like i was cheering for the i bet the lions like whatever they people still like they by the way didn't make the playoffs so like you coming strong at me monday morning after them not making the playoffs isn't really a great look but i don't know it's it's fandom is a hell of a drug so it's part of uh part of what we deal with at times so sounds like jacks wants to join the show maybe that happens here in the next moment luckily we're on our last game monday night football we have the cowboys in tampa bay this matchup we feel like we've had uh on paper in

our mind for a solid month here with the cowboys being locked in for a long time here in the five seed basically this is another one that they feel locked in we are two and a half across the board um we're juicing towards the three which i think is interesting i don't know that we get there but we'll see 45 and a5 is your total across the board. Just like we talked about with the Chargers, pretty worrisome, concerning Cowboys stretch of football. It kind of came to a head in the Commanders game where they really didn't have anything to play for.

It kind of rolled everyone out there and then took a 26-6 L. But the weeks before that haven't been really good either. It is kind of a struggling football team where everyone has been waiting for the Buccaneers, for the lights to turn on, and to have, again, a team that has a lot of guys from the Super Bowl run here, but we really haven't seen it. But we got basically a single glimpse in a game against the Carolina Panthers, and now everyone's like, we feel pretty good about the Buccaneers again.

So I don't know what to make of this one, Dave. I'll let you get started with Cowboys-Bucs, but it should be an entertaining football game. Among the many outcomes that could happen here, I do think the highest floor of all is at least the Cowboys offense getting there because the Bucs defense is not good. 34 points allowed to the Bengals, 35 to the Niners. We had the Ravens scoring 27 for Lamar Jackson against them. The Chiefs reached 41.

So I do have confidence in the Cowboys offense. At the same time, though, I am aware, because everyone cites the same thing when building the case for the Cowboys and trying to ignore this one-week sample of Week 18, Dallas' offense is 6th in EPA per play and top 5 in EPA per dropback since Dak Prescott returned from injury in Week 7. They've averaged 35 points per game in that time ahead of Week 18. And there are some playoff models that look ahead through the future, including 538 and others, that weigh the Cowboys as a real contender in the NFC. But I just wonder how much those things actually matter, given that there is a reason why Dallas hasn't won a road playoff game in 30

years. And it's because they don't know how to build personnel in an organization. They always get injured and thus have to put in replacements. And then those replacements gets burned at the end of the year. And we saw that against Washington like they were on Deron Bland as their default starting nickel corner Kelvin Joseph got benched Nashawn Wright was taken off the field and Trayvon Mullen played half the team snaps in place of them and Xavier Rhodes was signed to the practice squad just a couple just this past week and I fully expected to be active and play quite a bit in this game on Monday night against the Bucs.

Sam Howe didn't even target Trevon Diggs once in that game. And if Sam Howe knows you can pick on everyone else in the defense, what the hell do you think Tom Brady thinks? Also, going into that Panthers game in Week 17 the month prior Tom Brady of course seven touchdowns nine turnovers but now you look at his last two games and he's just dominated with a 75 completion rate 8.3 yards per attempt four touchdowns and zero picks so overall like I actually do have the most faith in the in the Bucks offense answering here and getting on top because you can't sell the Cowboys defense anymore as a deciding factor either. Since week 10, they've allowed the sixth highest rate of passing touchdowns, eighth in yards per attempt, and a league high completion

rate on throws 20 yards downfield. So I almost expect this game to go over. And if anything, although the Cowboys, I do expect them to score at least three touchdowns especially because this is a cd lamb game the bucks still can't stop anyone from the slot he's gonna have a monster game here either way though uh the bucks i'm picking the money line i understand that it's even in being favorites it's almost square because everyone watched week 18 everyone saw the cowboys go three and out on 12 or 15 possessions. But at the same time, it's just a significantly better spot here. And if you ask me which futures I'm on as well, I think I would at their lowest point, pick the bucks more so than anyone in the NFC. Yeah. Interesting. I mean, it felt like we've been like salivating on waiting to short

whoever won that division, Connor, and here we are in this Dallas team, just kind of splittered down the stretch. Um, love to get your thoughts on this one it's kind of i think going to be one of the better games of the week yeah i think a month ago i said on this show that if dallas played the bucks in the playoffs uh i would be laying dallas minus like 10 uh and so at this point a lot of things have changed uh and but i think part of it is is the recency bias i mean like i just have not seen an offense that is going to be like considered a good team look that bad against Washington. Like, I mean, ever, it's hard to overcome that.

And then we also have, like you said, the defense has played terribly as of late. And so you have those two factors and then you get a, uh, I mean, a good game from Brady and, and, you know, the, the bucks who for most of the season have been largely lost offensively. And so I don't know, I like originally I was like, Oh, bucks plus three. Like, that's a great bet. Now I'm kind of like, you know, hemming and hawing back and forth, because I think that, like you said, I think the Cowboys offense, that was probably just a fluke. Like I'm willing to bet on them coming back here against the bucks in the playoffs, putting up a good number. Um, but I also think the Brady can, can hang with them. So over 45 and a half is

probably my look, probably not touching the side here because i really do think it just depends on who shows play like if we get the cowboys last week they're gonna lose by 20 you know if we get the bucks from you know mid-season that have we're playing horribly they're gonna lose by 20 so i think that range of outcomes in this game are massive either way i expect a good amount of points the thing is like we're talking about the recency bias on the cowboys kind of sputtering and like the Buccaneers have somehow been this new team. Over the last six weeks, they are 27th in total DVOA. They are 30th in past DVOA.

They are still really susceptible to a strong passing game. Their special teams are garbage. They have a massive advantage in special teams. Jax agrees. He's backing. Sounds like the Cowboys here. He's not buying the recency on Brady and the Bucs. But yeah, I don't know.

I think it's just so interesting because I feel like the narrative is that the Bucs are playing better football. Literally, it was just a game, one game against the Panthers where kind of the offense kind of came together for the first time. Defense is still struggling.

It is definitely the square side. Like I said, I don't feel good about it. I know I have many sharp friends who are on the Cowboys. At the same time, I just can't get there. And maybe it's biased because I've seen this for the last two decades now. And again, I explained there's a reason why the Cowboys are always playing their worst football at this time of the year. It's not luck.

It's genuinely a trend because the team does not know how to build their roster. It happens every single season. Yes, I just cannot have any amount of faith right now in the Cowboys defense. And I will take a, you know, maybe they're worse, but I'll take the Bucs offense regardless. Like Brady's literally eighth in yards per attempt from no huddle.

And yet this team continues running into the ground on early first downs. They're literally their bottom in the league in yards per carry on early down runs first and second down but at least we know like cowboys are still above average like they're allowing the 12th most yards per carry on early downs so they're still an above average defense and leaking that kind of production so even if the bucks want to continue doing the sub-optimal approach continue doing the sub optimal approach on offense, the Cowboys defense is bad enough of late that they will allow them to do

that. Also Leonard Fournette, he went over 80 yards rushing in one game all year. And it was week one against the Cowboys where he averaged six yards per carry and totaled 127 on the ground. I just think they can really, the Bucs can beat them in any direction you just pick your poison and the cowboys can't stop them so i'm worried about this spot yeah i

don't have a conviction the cowboys either um to be honest i just um it feels similar to the giants and vikings gamer i feel like we're hearing a lot more of of people backing the the bucks than than anything there too all right uh real quick any thoughts in the future market in terms of super bowl super bowl matchups you can do exact is uh betting outright on a super bowl winner based off of kind of having an idea of you kind of what those matchups look like obviously we have you know maybe a pending coin toss or uh you know neutral field spot here but uh any thoughts connor i'll start with you in the future market. Yeah, there's two that I kind of circled and they're both Super Bowl MVP bets.

One that I thought was interesting, I'll start with the longer shot, was so the Chargers are 20 to one to win the Super Bowl. Justin Herbert's 25 to one to win Super Bowl MVP. They're making the Super Bowl. He's winning the Super Bowl MVP. Like they don't like it's, I mean, basically lock it in. So I think at that point, if you think that he can be the Jags, he does have a tough road. Again, it's like through the chiefs and the bills probably. But, you know, I think that at that point you're like, you're getting, you're paying the price for it's 25 to one. So, you know, I think that's a decent long shot. Another one that I really liked though, I'm, I'm sipping the Niners Kool-Aid, you know,

I think CMC here can win Superbowl MVP 18 to one, you know, if you're Brock Purdy, like they're probably going to go run centric most of their games here. I think that we've seen it, you know, from the niners in the past, like kind of just keep, as long as their defense holds tight there, they're going to be running the ball, running the ball a lot. And CMC is used in the passing game, using the running game. Like I just, there's so many ways for him to succeed. And he's like very clearly, you know, I guess at this point, their most valuable player, um, unless Brock Purdy has to go out and put up like 400 yards, in which case he would win, but still think cmc is a great shot there and that's like i think it's 18 to 1 something like that 20 to 1 so um i think just another way to

get a little bit long shot exposure to the niners making the super bowl we got jd parlay bucks money line and sean payton as dallas head coach i think that's probably really interesting here especially if they lose here in the first week. I think that is a, you know, maybe a fireable spot. If they get TCU out of Tampa Bay, it's absolutely going to be a new head coach.

I'm not jumping into anything else. I was happening to be in the app, you know, probably five, six weeks ago, shopping around, looking for some props. When Clark,

uh, sharp Clark fired off on the chiefs over niners exacta for 30 to 1 i got in on that feel like we're in a pretty good spot there and that would probably be still where i feel like i would want to go um i know that the bills kansas city game if that happens would be really interesting and really exciting and i know that obviously the path for the niners is we're going to have to fight through Philly, who I think is getting healthy. They needed to buy.

They kind of limped down the stretch, and I think they're going to get healthier. But I think that that's kind of where I'd be if I were to place anything live in that spot now. All right, gentlemen. Good stuff as always. Props on Friday. Again, 2 p.m. Eastern here on the same channel. Connor and I with Pat Mayo.

Diggle will continue to be grinding lots of other stuff. Can the folks look out for DFS? We'll still be back Friday, 6 30 PM Eastern. I believe TJ Hernandez is watching the show awkwardly right now. And then our DFS articles will be up. It's three big slates. We have a Saturday slate. We have a Sunday slate.

We have a six gamer going through Monday. And honestly, you know, for some reasons we painted the Giants-Vikings game going to be the most popular, and I think it's a pretty easy fade on a six-game slate, whereas the Bucs-Cowboys is hot as a Monday Night Hammer. So, yeah, lots of reasons to be tuning in to DFS this week. I think there are edges here.

Old school DFS Monday Night Hammer as my son plays with my lights. Well, you say Monday, but i know you're not hardcore in the streets anymore but fanduel the last two weeks has just given up and made it old school because they haven't heard that though yeah they haven't flexed out the sunday night game they literally just got lazy and they left the sunday night game in but that let us play jamal williams last week so it was pretty good yeah i'm not uh i'm i still play i am definitely not in the fanduel streets at all so yeah uh just remember old old school, you know, Sunday nights. And even before that, we had the Monday Night Hammers,

which were, you know, real old school. So, all right, gentlemen, good stuff as always. Appreciate it. Again, $19 for a betting sub. Takes you through the end of February. It's going to get all of our bets through the playoffs. We'll get all access to all the JDs, you know, DFS stuff that's still going on. Again, we're firing in other sports as well.

The Discord is really where you want to be. Love that community. What you got? Special shows as well on Thursday. We will have, of course, the last Best Ball Happy Hour for the Underdog Gauntlet Tournament with 2 Million Man himself. Still can't believe I can say that. Pat Corain.

And then Friday morning on the YouTube channel, we will release a FFPC only playoff show challenge. We had to work really hard to book him, but Connor Allen will be on there along with a good friend, Joe Pano. Love it. Oh, he dusted Pano off for a show, huh? I texted him. I said, one show per year.

This is the time. Are you in? He said, name the time. So, yes. We'll make it an NFT. Yep. This is the time. Are you in? He said, name the time. So, yes. We're making an NFT. Yep. This is the one of one Joe Pano 2023 edition. I'm so excited.

Love it. He's put down the soccer whistle for minutes. I have the playoff only rankings for that FFPC chat, for everything, honestly. I just bombarded my journal of player notes onto the bottom column. So, even if you're betting player props, I have notes there for you, but the rankings are for the FFPC challenge. And so like, I have a lot of thoughts on that, not only from the article, but like on different pivots and leverage spots.

So we'll talk about it all on Friday morning on the YouTube channel. Love that. Subscribe, rate, review on the audio podcast. If you haven't, that goes a long way in helping us out as well. We appreciate all those things. So again, betting stuff, 19 bucks guys, check it out for dago and carter i'm ryan we'll see you all on friday thanks you you