Move The Line - FREE Super Bowl 57 Picks | Expert Bets & Predictions

Episode Date: February 9, 2023

Super Bowl 57 Preview!Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan, John Daigle & Joey Knish get you ready for Super Bowl 57. They share their top NFL bets, fantasy tips and advice. Which novelty prop bets should you place? What bets are sure-fire locks? Tune in to find out.0:00 Intro8:51 Betting Preview19:02 Longshots32:03 Guest Props39:40 Chiefs RB Debate48:08 More Props1:08:18 OutroWant a FREE 4for4 Betting Subscription? Deposit $10 into a new BetMGM account using promo code 4FOR4 👉🏼 https://4for4.com/go/BetMGMSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow John on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/notJDaigleFollow Joey on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/JoeyKnish22Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TbYo4XSubscribe to our Betting YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea

are we rocking mobile down here i think we're going phone streaming i had to go phone i mean it just wasn't it wasn't working I have no idea how this possibly happens. I apologize to the listeners. It's like one of our favorite things to hear. And then, you know, this all of a sudden goes, goes absolutely haywire. So I tried to listen to that painfully to let these three bozos host and operate the show.

I've, you know, and it goes all to shit. And what happens? So anyway, I think you were asking long shots, which I thought was the whole premise of late in the show. We're 20 minutes in. I don't think we need to cut this any shorter for anyone else. They don't need to be here for it.

We're 20 minutes in, but if you only cut down strictly to audio and took out the commercials, we're like three minutes in. That's good. That's not bad. I like Kanish dropping some defense. I like that we're on the minutes in it's good it's not bad um i like kanish dropping some defense i like that we're on the defensive side a little bit um heard some names that we don't hear a lot about so i kind of like that angle there on the chief side in particular which is

pretty pretty interesting i get a couple of walkie ones that i would love to get you guys a couple maybe less walkie um connor and I are going to do props as normal on Friday with Pat Mayo, a little bit more traditional. I think we're kind of spending more time here in the novelty props. Both teams are going to score, right? I know Connor's interested in the over. I don't know. I think it's your Dane's thoughts on the total here.

Fandles got both teams to get to 20 at minus 138. That's probably a pretty fair number. I don't see one of these teams really stalling offensively. I mean, they're pretty elite in terms of – I think they're 1-2 in offensive EPA on the season. So I think when you kind of break it down pretty significantly, like the Chiefs are far and above everyone else.

Yeah, the difference between the Eagles at 2 and the Chiefs at one is the same difference between the Eagles at two and number 17. Chiefs have been pretty good, even though they don't have Tyreek. There's a lot of talk about first half, first quarter struggles in the Super Bowl. I think we've seen that historically. Teams getting off to a slow start. At least that's a narrative, and I haven't run the data. Tanish probably has a thought on that. Teams getting off to a slow start. No score in the first seven minutes is plus one 55 on draft Kings. So if you have some thoughts there and you think that that's the case,

I think we're getting a pretty good number there. Plus one 55 on DK for, you know, maybe, you know, a long drive and no score, or maybe even a punt, you know,

and a couple of long drives. So not a bad number there. Those are kind of more of like the generic ones. I have some cross sports stuff. I got some punt stuff. I don't know how much we want to get in the weeds here yet, but those are a couple for me and kick it back to you guys. Now that I can participate in the show. Well, since you can participate,

get us back on the right track because we were just going around pretty much giving it all our best shit already so please start directing it again well i missed do we we have really good strong takes because i mean i feel like what like the number hasn't moved really since open right hasn't moved since we saw the initial line movement and reaction we're at one and a half there's no eagle news because everyone's playing they They're as healthy as they've ever, and as anyone ever really is at this point. The only news that really could come is we kind of get, I think what we expect, but it probably is just like,

there's some positive news on the Chiefs side, right? We got Ladarius Neen is back, still waiting on Willie Gay. We need to find some answers at the receiver position. Do you think that any of that good news can move us closer to a pick or see any movement off the one and a half? Yeah, that's what I would think that as we get closer and the handle comes in here with the positive Chiefs news, you get closer to a round of pick here. Obviously, this is one of those if you could put the Chiefs in a tease here,

that'd be one I wish there was a, give me some XFL on the board here so I can tease, you know, some early XFL or USFL with a, you know, a Chief teaser here. So, you know, it'd be one that, yeah, I'd love to, you know, it'd be more well, it's at one and a half, get them up to seven and a half, but might have to, you know, do a cross, if I can do a cross sport tease here with some, you know, some me at college basketball or something, I get there.

But I agree. I would say it's much more likely this closes pick-ish than it does. I see no scenario where this goes back to Chiefs 2, 2.5 or any of that stuff. So, yeah, it would be leaning back to a pick for me. Connor, do you have any thoughts around the early scoring stuff? Because I know that you played. I got in on it too because I liked it. That's kind of been something that our subscribers on our Discord

have had a lot of success chasing Eagles over one and a half touchdowns, Eagles over 12 and a half, over 13 and a half in the first half, all season long. Has any of the work that you've done maybe dispelled some of the early Super Bowl jitter stuff? Does it matter to these teams, especially the Eagles side, that the construction of the team is very different than what was here five years ago?

The fact that they've been here recently, any thoughts into that narrative around slow starts in the play that you made at over 12 and a half on slow starts in the play that you made at over 12 and a half on Philly in the first half? Yeah, I think it's certainly played out in some, some senses, but it's mostly been a first quarter thing. So like in the first half, the scores have been very normal, you know, like mostly like outside of the one game that was the,

I believe it was a Rams Patriots game where there's three points in the first half. Every other Superbowl is, you know, ended up 20 plus in the first half and like well on their way, at least a halfway towards their total essentially. And so for me, I played over Eagles first half team total over 12 and a half. I think we're looking at 13 and a half at this point.

I still think that's fine. To be honest, Eagles over 13 or more points in 15 of 17. Jalen Hurd starts averaging 19.1 points per game. The most since the 2007 Patriots in the first half. I mean, this is better than that two 2017 Falcons team that everyone talked about being like the best first half team ever. Like this is just an incredible first half performance based on how they're

scheming things based on how they're doing everything. And like, I think that there are ways for the chiefs to counteract like what the Eagles do well in some ways, but like the Eagles has been so good in the first half, and they haven't ever necessarily needed to score in the second half. They could be a historic second-half team, too. We just don't even know because they haven't had to play anyone

in the second half. So I really think that in this spot here, an Eagles first-half team goal of 12.5 is just too short. And even over 13.5 is probably a good look, too, because two touchdowns, like you mentioned, it's been a free money glitch all year, basically for our subscribers. Yeah.

Maybe at that point too, I'd have to price it out. I don't know where it's at now, but if you're kind of like 13 and a half on the over your best, best, probably just to try to find the two touchdown price, the over one and a half touchdown price. I imagine that's probably slightly favorable in terms terms of the 13 and a half sometimes you see

that a little bit slower to move so because in that instance you're probably you know you're not getting three field goals um and a touchdown right i mean you're definitely banking on two touchdowns so i think that's probably worth a look um should we give out the crab list that silva gave us because i mean like what uh absolute just garbage right like dumpster fire what are we even doing here so bad i believe let me see if we can uh read this off here because this was i mean i've seen a lot of lists of long shot props and this is special right here. And never forget, don't forget,

everyone remember that long shot during Super Bowl week, which is why this is my least favorite week of football because it's everything regurgitated. Not only that, but people that don't even usually dabble in props feel as if they're forced to put out a props podcast. You don't have to, just don't do it.

How about that? But yes, now we get long shots and long shot during football or during Superbowl week is equivalent to dumb ass. It's just a dumb ass bet is what long shot is. So here, Connor, I'm setting you up or some dumb ass bets.

Yeah, I think actually like one of the longest shot bets that I've seen hit during the Superbowl was like, I don't even know, maybe like a Von Miller MVP when they beat the Panthers. I mean, like really there haven't been that many long shots to hit outside of like in most markets here because I don't know. I mean, and sorry to cut you off, but remember during that game, the Broncos had the most handle because they were the wiser bet because Cam Newton hadn't played an actual pass rush until

the Super Bowl and then DeMarcus Wareughn Miller single-handedly won that game despite Peyton Manning's nude alarm. But sharp bettors were on it the whole way. So, like, a defensive player made sense. Whereas, you know, in my opinion, although the Chiefs' defense is the X factor in this game, it's the one that no one's talking about, despite the fact that I would argue they've been playing better

in the last month and a half than the Eagles' defense defense um like that's the one where i just like i don't want to take a eagles rotational de for mvp that's fucking crazy to me so i'm sorry go ahead all right so here's the list that evan silva gave us i'm reading this out uh because again hold on i think sorry again evan silva gave gave Connor this list. I just want to have context for this. A GOAT. A GOAT gave these bets. Evan has been a staple on the show for years.

He can't be here. Again, I know Kanisha mentioned he's dealing with extracurricular activities for his daughter. He's dadding up, allegedly. Again, I'm reporting the news as it was reported to us but i just want to make sure that you know that this isn't like um my 14 year old son or my wife who passively watches football or uh you know anyone significant other or anyone randomly off the street this is evan silva and his list of of thoughts that he would have given you in person

if he was here but again he's busy so do you want me to go what do you want me to go one by one or just read them all yeah go let go one by one it's fine so first one juju mvp 80 to one i mean is he even gonna play don't hate don't hate it but also that's the best one. So if you're not ready for that one, you're not ready for the other. Juju two touchdowns, 22 to one. I actually don't hate that one. I think that somehow you can get there.

Um, Sky more MVP, 200 to one. I mean, Sky more is garbage. That is drive your car off the ledge right now. Quez Watkins. First touchdown,

50 to one last touchdown 40 to 1 i mean like what you know to be fair touchdown bets in defense quez walkins anytime touchdowns 10 to 1 so if you're gonna bet anytime but you see it 40 and 50 to 1 and again i'm just playing devil's advocate i think it's stupid. Then maybe sure. Maybe bet first and last, because those are better odds betting it twice than just betting anytime. Go ahead.

But things get better too, because you have the, the non-correlated parlay that taxes you on being correlated. Quez Watkins to score and Eagles to win. Very nice. 13 to one only. So that's, you're getting 10 to one in the anytime,

and you're only getting an extra plus 300 on something that I guess is loosely correlated, but DraftKings is slapping you with a nice, nice correlated tax there. Um, Devonta Smith, MVP 25 to one. I mean, maybe, I don't know. I mean, like, I think that there's room for other Eagles players to win, but, uh, you know, and then 60 yard field goal nine to one i mean the eagles are never going to not go for it uh as long as it's less than fourth and four fourth and five in that range uh and then hertz first touchdown plus sanders second touchdown 22 to one that's uh that should be more than 22 to one that's my argument. Yeah. Guessing literally the first, it probably is. He's a shop.

Think about the odds you get on first touchdown, the long shot. Now try guessing the first two touchdowns of any game, let alone the super bowl. Like no fucking way. No way. Give me 50 to one, not 22 to one.

Silva. We love you. Uh, but we think your bets are horseshit, but you couldn't be here. So we have to call on you. Excited to sweat, uh,

the game hanging out with him on Sunday and tell him to his face that we think his bets are horseshit. But you couldn't be here, so we have to call on you. Excited to sweat the game, hanging out with him on Sunday and tell him to his face that we think his bets are garbage. But watch multiple of them hit, and he's just laughing at us while we're all hanging out. It would be certainly fun. I mean, he should know better. We were here, and we had the Damian Williams sweat a couple years ago.

It's just so hard, especially the Chiefs stuff, like the Juju and the sky more it's like man a scenario where one of my homes is receivers gets there it is like the mvp and my homes isn't like that's a hard sell like the eagle stuff i think you can like the davante thing like we've seen it historically at times that pats have had a couple instances with you know having some good receiver games and Brady was kind of meh and didn't get the MVP it's just it's so

I feel like they should just be longer and like Juju's receiving yardage is like 32 and a half or something and like we don't even know who's playing like I don't know I want more than 80 to 1 for him to win the damn Super Bowl MVP I believe everyone except Tony I don't know. I want more than 80 to one for him to win the damn Superbowl MVP. I believe everyone except Tony was full today for the chiefs.

Tony was limited on Wednesday practice, I believe. And also I don't even know how much the injury report matters because two weeks ago, the chiefs lied about their players being healthy. Jalen hurts and my homes have been lied about being healthy all off season. They're both still injured. And so we're really just questioning how much two weeks makes, how much it improves them, honestly, on the field. And with a, at 50%, Patrick Mahomes, I would argue just played the best game of his entire life against the Bengals. And I have much more trust in Lou Anmarumo against Mahomes than I do the Eagles defense. So I don't even know how much it matters. Honestly.

Yeah. Wilkman brings up a good point here. Sky more to kick returns. He would need to kick returns and like a rushing or receiving touchdown. And maybe that still might not be enough. So he has more fumbles and trying to punt return this year than he does kick then punt returns for a touchdown. Also, I know Kanish.

I know Kanish is on the curious Tony stuff and I don't know. I don't know where Kanish went. So this is easily the worst, uh, you know, quality show we've done. Uh, uh, but I think that Kedarious Tony stuff is super thin. Like I get that why you'd want to play an over, but like two weeks before, before he got injured, he had played like 19 snaps each week for the past two weeks before. And then he played four snaps. He did look like he was going to be more involved. I mean, he started and played each of the four first snaps,

but then he got injured. Like, I mean, what faith do we have after a week and a half off that he's going to come in and be like a full-time player or even like a, I mean, part-time player. What if he goes back and plays like 10 snaps again?

I think that's very much in the range of outcomes. I think the numbers are really low. The numbers are accounting for an injury. I think that's 25 yards. I get it. But like, I mean, 25 yards is what two to three catches at least. Like, I mean, he needs to be at least out there for 20 snaps. Like, I don't, do you think he's gonna be like, are you confident he's out there for 20 snaps? I'm not right. It's close to be out there for 20 steps though, because 10 snaps for Tony, I understand the usage, but they literally, they can certainly call plays for tony i understand the usage but they literally they can certainly

call plays for him to get him the ball that's totally different than if mbs runs 10 routes like because they don't call plays for mbs he has to get open himself tony doesn't need to get open they literally feed him the ball purposely but they also use him in the in the running game too like that's like we we're on a cadarious tony when it was like 38 and he was like his usage was ascending he got like three end arounds that he had, like, you know, should have had actually even more receiving yards and had like three

catches for 25 yards and then like 25 rushing yards. So like, I think if you want to play the over, I do agree. He'll probably be like his touch per snap ratio will be like the highest ever in the NFL. But I just don't know if his snaps are going to be high enough. That's my only concern.

Anytime TD, or like I mentioned, um, first catch for the Chiefs, which you can find on MGM, I think that's the best way to go for Tony. Yeah. You can bet rushing and receiving yards at 31 if you want, instead of just 25. I like that actually a lot better. I'm willing to get in on that if we get some positive news on Tony.

I don't mind the first reception look because you can see them doing some sort of you know scheming things to him trying to get him involved do something early i don't mind that i i there's two other chiefs first reception looks that i like um pacheco is plus 650 um i don't hate that at all and And Jerry McKinnon plus four and a quarter. I like the Pacheco one more, to be honest. I think you could very much see a scenario where they try to curtail a little bit of the pass rush from the Eagles. Set up a call in early screen just to kind of bait them into maybe not bringing the house, maybe not blitzing,

trying to be a little bit coy in that. Then you can get a little dump off. The checkdowns are going to be there in this game for, it's part of why I like McKinnon. I think there's going to be some underneath looks, especially to the running backs, if they're willing to take them, which Moe Holmes has shown this year he's been willing to take. The ADOT's lower, significantly lower than it was last year

with Tyreek and all that they have going on there. So first reception, I didn't play either, but the Pacheco one is probably my favorite look closer to seven to one. I think that's on Caesars plus six 50. So I like that as well for if you're going to go with Tony stuff, that'd probably be my Tony look as well. And now that you're back,

you, I want you guys to debate out the Pacheco and McKinnon. I Daigle earlier in the week, played a to debate out the Pacheco and McKinnon. Daigle earlier in the week played a Pacheco over. You've played two McKinnon receiving overs. I personally think that you can make a case for both. Daigle, I'll let you go first here with your Pacheco receiving over. Well, it's simply just the usage. And I'm someone who backed, like when I finally bet against Brockck purdy even though situation out of my hand

that he got injured but i i would still argue the 49ers were or no the eagles were a much more dominant team than the 49ers anyhow so don't even care about the injury but like when i had backed brock purdy through the entire run and then saw the spot where it was wise to bet against him uh i was on mckinnon for the entire run and then the last time we saw the chiefs it was all to bet against him. I was on McKinnon for the entire run, and then the last time we saw the Chiefs, it was all Pacheco and running more routes than McKinnon for the first time all year, out snapping him, out touching them.

And it wasn't even close, honestly. And that was in a game where Patrick Mahomes was at 50, 75%, whatever you want to give him. And yet they trusted when push came to shove, Pacheco in the most important game to that point of the year. And so I just want to go back to that. And also remember, we are only two years removed from Kyle Shanahan after a torrential run, not being able to play McKinnon because he had dead

legs. Remember the report. So like, of course it would make sense that over the last six weeks of the regular season, when McKinnon's usage is at an all-time high, that suddenly we reach the playoffs, and this dude has dead legs and they just can't use him. Maybe that's what they're seeing. So that's the narrative I'm spinning anyway. So I still like Pacheco in a lot of different aspects, prop bets, DFS over McKinnon, if that's a choice here. Yeah, so I don't think it has to be Sobeys' choice.

I think Daigle makes a good point. I think that they could both get there, and that's kind of my point, is that I think that they both have, especially with whether it's guys being out or even limitations to the receiving core, I think this is a way to attack Philly a little bit. I think they're 24th in past EDVOA in the season, the running backs. If they're willing to take it, I think this is part of what's going to be

available for them to do. So I think Pacheco could very well get there and McKinnon as well. I don't know that he was necessarily healthy a little bit down the stretch. Mayo brought it up and that was part of my handicap when I wrote it up on the site was there's a significant splits with McCall Harmon lineup in terms of how they use them. And that was surprising to me. And when I actually kind of looked at the splits, it's pretty telling in terms of the number 29 games that they've played together uh there are

nine games that Hardman has missed um and it's night and day in terms of the usage for um for McKinnon in the passing game so I took a plus 140 on over three and a half receptions it's a big number but I really liked 20 and a half receiving yards. I think that's moved up to, you know, 22 and a half, 23 and a half in some spots. So I think that there's,

I think he's averaged 4.1 receptions in the nine games without Hardman in the lineup on a tad over five targets. And I think like 25 more yards per game with Hardman out. So again, not always something you would think that would correl yards per game with Harmon out. So again, not always something you would think that would correlates because they're, they played every positions, but the way that they use him is in that short passing game. The way that they use Harmon is in some of that stuff too.

The way they like to kind of scheme him and do some unique things more so than traditional down the field stuff. So I think they could both get there. Cause I don't think the threshold is very high. And like I said, I think that they're going to want to play their i don't think you're going to have a lot of box safety stuff from the eagles i don't think you're going to have a lot of linebacker blitzes um because you're white the linebacker for the eagles is one of the worst coverage linebackers in the league i think that impacts his playing time i think they're going

to want to hide him um and they're going to want to drop those linebackers in the league. I think that impacts his playing time. I think they're going to want to hide him. Um, and they're going to want to drop those linebackers as deep as possible to try to make that, um, a spot that they can take away some of that underneath stuff to Kelsey underneath in the seam to Juju. And, uh, I think the running backs are going to be both viable. So yeah, I'm, I'm fine with the Pacheco play as well. I haven't played it, but I'm, I think he's very much involved in the passing game. And I'll for everyone, for the rest of the show, Kanisha's bets that you got, that's what you're getting. Because as he mentioned at the top, he also has to run to the book.

And so I'm pretty sure he literally ran to the book and left us. It is quite the eight-mile problem. So I do agree. But it's fine. We got this the rest of the way. Also, Noonan, to that point i have bet seen and bet and it's still out there for everyone you have to dig around and find it um points bet and bet mgm i believe it's still out there but isaiah pacheco receiving yards to miles sanders receiving yards

i had bet pacheco for that receiving usage reason i love that uh in the playoffs in the playoffs on third and fourth down alone uh kenneth gainwell has out snapped miles sanders 26 to playoffs on third and fourth down alone, Kenneth Gainwell has out-snapped Miles Sanders 26-2 on third and fourth down. They don't use Sanders in the passing game at all. So, of course, I'm taking a chance on Pacheco's usage, which is more relevant than Sanders because we haven't seen it all year. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, you could also make the case, like, if you were to make the – I like that a lot because I do think Sanders is an air ball in the passing game.

I think there's a case to be made that the Pacheco passing game usage against since he was a little bit of a scheme breaker type situation because they hadn't used him in that role. So, you know, you want to show him in the passing game because you hadn't previously. I also think it was successful. And to my point, I think it's going to be available for him. So I prefer McKinnon over Pacheco,

but I definitely prefer Pacheco over Miles Sanders for sure. Yeah. No, I also think that there's a variable of like how we see the Chiefs play. So like I personally think they're going to play a lot of like 12 and 13, more than just 11. If they're at 11, I think we're going to see a ton of McKinnon. If they're in 12 and 13, we'll probably see, I mean, maybe not as much Pacheco as we saw last week, but i think a little bit more similar to like an even split

so i think that there is a both way both of them get there but i personally just think that they're going to be wanting to run pacheco in between the tackles if they have to if that's what the eagles are giving them versus mckinnon um and i mean i we brought it up in the chat once you played it i was just personally worried that jerick mckinnon out snapped isaiah pacheco for six straight weeks and then in a game that mattered most he he wasn't, you know, like he, Isaiah Pacheco, you know, ran more routes, like a season high on routes out snapped Jarek McKinnon for the first time in a while. So like it was one of those things where I feel like as outsiders, we're missing something and we just don't know what it was. Maybe it was scheme breaking. Maybe it was Jarek McKinnon is dead legs, but is two weeks enough to kind of close that gap.

And those are questions that I don't think we necessarily have, but it doesn't mean that neither is going to be involved here. Um, I do have a question for Daigle though, over under four and a half snaps for crit for Clyde Edwards Hilaire in this game. I'm still guessing under, uh, he could sneak into a touchdown because as we know, I say it every week, the Chiefs are bored inside the 10 yard line. They just try whatever the hell they want to do. Whoever is capable, even an offensive lineman, if Andrew Wiley's out there and wants to throw an underhanded pass, they'll figure out a way to do it. And so Edwards Slayer could be in there in a two RB package and get the touchdown

like from McKinnon. It could absolutely happen. But overall usage, no, this is a guy they were phasing out in two weeks, not just one week. Two weeks prior, he got zero touches the week he got injured. Or before the week he got injured, he came back in for his one touch the following week. He got injured on it. They weren't using it before because Pacheco began breaking out. So I imagine it's still just a two-headed backfield. But again, maybe CEH can still sneak in for one score.

But that's an anytime touchdown bet. That's absolutely not a usage bet. Yeah. Cause they've been mixing in Ronald Jones for random snaps. So I think that more so than anything, that's probably what we see from, from CEH, if anything. So I'm with Dagle, I think probably lean under, but it's not a role that should impact Pacheco or McKinnon. He was not out of the picture because of injury. He was already out of the picture before injury. That's important to remind everyone. Yeah.

Right. And that's what I remember too. And like beyond that, like he was bad and like, maybe they kept using the red zone, but like, I have very distinct memories of him just getting stuffed repeatedly at the goal line,

you know, multiple times. Like he's not really a good red zone running back necessarily either. So I don't know. I, I I've heard multiple people who i respect and are smart say like oh yeah well he's active so of course he's gonna play but in my mind i'm like well he wasn't playing before he was injured and now like pacheco's were playing really well mckinnon obviously saw a massive roll down the stretch like for me it was kind of tough to get there so i'm glad that you guys agree because i thought i was crazy for a little bit because i was like, man, I don't know, maybe five snaps,

maybe like one to two carries. Like that's kind of what I envisioned for him. All right. I'm going to run down some of the stuff that I have. I know I shared some stuff earlier. I didn't get a reaction because I probably couldn't get a reaction. I'd love to get your guys' thoughts. Both teams to score 20, minus 138 on FanDuel.

I feel like that's a pretty price um i i don't mind the no score i'm with connor on the uh on the over but no score in the first seven minutes at plus 155 i think is a good number uh cross sport prop i mean we not only have a super bowl this week but we have the best pre-game show of the world we get the way i can't wait i can't fucking wait i love i love the waste management it's like that even beyond pebble beach is a is a bucket list course for me and if you go during the summer because as y'all know i had to work roto world news at the time but we've been in vegas together and if you go golfing in the desert during the summer, it leads to terrible emotions and inner reactions. But if you go golfing at TPC Scottsdale during the summer, it's like 90 bucks on a Wednesday

at lunchtime because no one goes. I would go. I'd go burn all my skin off for that. Anyway, I'm sorry. Continue. I think I would too. Knowing what I know from our Vegas experience, I would know how to prepare even better than we did. Yeah, I would do would too. Knowing what I know from our Vegas experience, I would know how to prepare even better than we did. Yeah, I would do it too. Great, great event. On Caesars, they have a cross-sport section. They number them for you. This is number 45 in the what will be more section.

It's wild. They're unorganized too. It's not like in numerical order. It's all over. Worst prop menu too. It's not like in numerical order. It's all over. Worst prop menu I've ever seen. Literally the worst problem. It's just one big page of like props. It's like an old school Vegas thing,

except the worst. Cause you have to unclick all of them. Yeah. You have to open them up. So it's, it's not great. Scotty Scheffler, fourth round score or Kansas city chiefs,

offensive place. Scotty is minus one and a half at minus 130. So I spend a good amount of time trying to project plays every week because it's a big piece of me trying to handicap tackles. Feel pretty good about where I'm at with this. The Chiefs are kind of middle of the pack on the season, about 64 and a half plays offensively they uh last three have been at around 63 the eagles do not allow a lot of plays

um they are especially of late it's been pretty pretty light uh 61 and a half on the season 53.3 over the uh last three games i have the Chiefs for 61 plays in this game. So we're Scotty minus one and a half on the fourth round. So Scotty won this event last year, 16 under. It was minus four in the last round. It's a par 71. So that puts him at 67. So minus one and a half, 65 and a half.

His like typical fourth round scoring is like 67. His scoring average on the season last year was like 68 and change. So like you got a little bit of wiggle room here in a spot where I feel like if any team is going to get and kind of blow out plays, like for instance, I have the Chiefs at 61. I have the Eagles at 66. It's kind of right on actually the market's number on total place of the game at 127 and a half so if any team like i think feel like the eagles are more likely to control the game make it harder for the chiefs to kind of

you know sustain drives it's not necessarily how the chiefs play either so i feel pretty good about the chiefs number at 61 um and scotty would have to go absolutely berserk to get to this number so um give me scotty uh minus one and a half a minus 130 on caesars to have a uh a higher score than chief's offensive place so that's i like i like that that's fun i'm gonna i'm gonna tail that i don't there's a lot going on there so i didn't fully quite understand the complexities, but I think I understood at the end, you're projecting 61 plays for the chiefs and you're projecting Scotty to

finish in like the 67 to 70 ish range, correct? Yeah, exactly. Yeah. I just wanted to make sure I fully understood. Yeah. So I'm trying to give you the little bit of the, the why to how we land on the 61 number for the chiefs. But yeah, that's, that's exactly it. So I think even Scottie going berserk, you probably have a little bit of wiggle room in that one.

So also on Caesars, you just get team with the most offensive plays. Philly's minus 150. He's laying a little bit of juice. But based off of everything we've seen, both in terms of season high, average, median, anything you would get, you get Philly, I think, at a pretty good value at minus 150 there. Shout out to our guy, Heck, who grinds punts along with penalties and all sorts of stuff. I jumped in on the under seven and a half punts with him early in the week.

That number is gone now, basically. It's still seven and a half half but under is like minus 175 so on draft kings though you can get under 338 and a half total yardage from punts doing the math a little bit seven punts which is kind of what we need on the average day under our seven and a half here is a 48 and a half net yard punt, which is pretty significant. Like that's, it would basically be third in the league. And that's not what we've been seeing from Brett Kern, the Eagles guy in particular.

So I don't think we're going to get a lot of punts in this spot. I don't think we're going to get to eight, but even then we have a little bit of wiggle, like 42 and change, you know, at six punts, you would need like 54 uh so basically you know if you still want to get under the eight or under seven and a half punts maybe even under eight punts uh i think the better way to do it is total punt yardage under 338 and a half minus 130 on draft kicks so that was my little off the board exotics i love that i was looking at that and i just like had no idea where to start handicapping it.

I was looking at like longest punts and I was like, man, this current guy kind of sucks. So I was trying to figure out a way to short him and the Eagles. I mean, easily one of the most aggressive teams in the league. Anytime they're like in fourth and two or less, like they're going to go for it. They're not going to punt. And so and I also think that, I mean, I don't know. I think that the Chiefs defense is going to be super aggressive in some ways,

but like, I think they're also going to leave themselves exposed to some bigger plays pretty much every drive in this sense. So yeah, I think I like that a lot too. For sure. One more in that same sense. Both of them average like 28th and 29th in total punts on the season.

They're like 3.1 and 3.2 draft Kings in terms of teams to have the total punts on the season uh like 3.1 and 3.2 um draft kings in terms of teams to have the most punts draft kings has made it a three-way market no one else has um so on draft kings you can get neither team to have the most punts what if they both get three punts i mean that fits our under seven and a half that fits their their season average that fits our aggressive narrative that we think is going to happen here in the playoffs neither team to have the most puns is plus 320 which i think is a pretty good number uh comparatively to the market and how they're priced in just a two-way market elsewhere so you can push that but on draft kings i like the plus 320 yeah no that's that's uh that's a fun one for sure as well and kind of along the same lines here jackson one of our uh listeners i said sirianni doesn't kick field goals plus chiefs. Red zone defense is not great. Eagles under one and a half field goals at even worth the play for me. Uh, I think that it is probably a lean, but I'm just worried that there could be so many points that like, you're going to be down there all the time. And so, you know, a fourth and six, fourth and seven,

like those kinds of things, the Eagles probably aren't going for. So I'd almost rather play like a longest field goal under instead. Like, because I mean, it would have to be like a very specific situation where it's like fourth and six and they're on like the, you know,

whatever, like it'd be like, I'd be like a 50 yard field goal, something like that. So that's kind of how I'd approach it. Daigle. I mean, any thoughts on the field goals,

the punters, any, I'm sure this is way beyond like anything you enjoy looking at at this point. Yeah, I'm not a long-shot special teams guy. And when we talk about Super Bowl MVPs, I mentioned Miles Sanders, but I'm also not a long-shot MVP person. I just think it's all burning money, so it's not for me. Is it fun?

I think fun is subjective. So if you have fun, you should definitely do it. Just bet on Colin Morikawa to win the Waste Management. Save yourself some of the money. Well, I'm fading him, so let's not do that either. Let's definitely not do that. Yeah, save your pennies on some of the Juju Smith-Schuster MVPs and stuff like that.

So Daigle is a very strong game theory bro. So I respect and understand the game theory in fading Morikawa in DFS. He's winning this week or he's winning next week at RIV. So, you know, there's a golf bet for you if you want to sweat the waste management. Justin Thomas shouldn't be 24 or 25 either. So there's a couple of golf bets for you. can uh bank some money and then bet the super bowl live with all of your your waste management winnings if you want some shorter six condom bets that i made uh draft king sportsbook still has heads at even money even though it's quite literally a coin flip so i bet plus 100 because that's really

stupid uh that tails is actually favorited so there's there's a bet right there wait really it's it's favored tails is minus 105 and they put heads at even money yeah i don't trust me i i don't get it either so i've been good i mean that's how i got limited on it yeah i don't know but it's stupid. And then I also bet, this is probably more dangerous, I have an alt bet on Chiefs minus 6.5 plus 280. I like alt betting the Chiefs under 7 points because I think they should be favored in this game. I missed out on the topic.

The questions about schedule is enough to where you should not be ignoring it but you should also not be yelling as most people are about how oh well the schedule doesn't matter or the schedule like you should not you should ignore it because of course the eagles are good that's probably the case they deserve to be here but overall like since they haven't played anyone, it's also ambiguous enough to say, well, actually the Chiefs are still the better team in this game. I have enough questions about the Eagles to where, again,

I think the Chiefs defense is the best here, especially how they've played the last six weeks. Just the fact that they limited Lawrence to five and a half yards per attempt, Burrow to six and a half yards per attempt. Dude, the Chiefs pass rush right now is incredible. It's amazing. So, of course, I think they can limit Hurts. Everyone wants to talk about how Mahomes may be injured still.

No one is discussing how Hurts has just been bad throwing downfield. He's been terrible. And I think it's because of his shoulder injury. So why can't he be just as injured, even though that affects him more throwing downfield than Mahomes, after my home played the best game of his life on an injured ankle. So yeah, of course I want the chiefs at every side. I want the chiefs. Yeah. Along that lines, I played, uh, Patrick, my homes have a higher completion rate than Jalen hurts in this game. And that was only minus one 15. I just like, look at the philosophies,

like beyond like, like exactly what Dago said, like Hertz has been playing horribly. I think the chiefs are going to be aggressive. They're going to try and like do a lot of zone blitzes when they might play tight. Like it's going to have to be a lot of like big plays for Hertz. And then like for Mahomes, they're probably just going to try and like maximize like the shorter distances. Like they're not going to go like guns blazing 40 yard passes to like Cadareous Tony and MBS against like the Eagles corners. Like, of course the Eagles corners are like good.

They're good. They're just like,BS against like the Eagles corners. Like, of course the Eagles corners are like good. They're good. They're just like, that's not the optimal strategy. So like it, I think that they're, that Mahomes is up in like, you know, 68, 70% range. Also his median is 2% higher than Jalen hurts as is. And like you have all these other factors. So I still like that one a lot. That's it. I think FanDuel minus one 15 is the best number at this point.

Someone actually shot me a message. Cause this was got up to minus 130 at uh can be shops now minus 115 at fanduel um i don't know draft kings i don't think has it but yeah i like that a lot i like it a lot yeah yeah i was shocked that he was like that close i was like maybe i'm missing something i went through it like i mean hertz has been a little better than i had remembered passing but it's just because like the last four games, he was like, it was like 57, 59, 60, and 66% completion rate. And his last four games. And that was against like multiple, not very good defenses as well.

So like, I think that since he's got hurt, it's not great. He averaged 68% completion rate through week 14. Hasn't reached that number in any game since week 15. And then also a three of 10 on throws 20 yards downfield since he injured his shoulder from Chicago on before that was completing 40, 42 and a half percent of his throws. 20 yards downfield was top 12 in the league. Not even close to that right now.

So yeah, he's, he's still injured. Yeah, no, a hundred percent. I do have a question, I guess two more prop questions for you guys real quick here.

Kenny Gainwell receiving props. We were on some Samaj P run receptions and receiving yards last week. I mean, any thoughts here? Kenneth Gainwell only over over at one and a half receptions. He's been kind of like their primary receiving back.

I worry that there's just not enough like plays for them to run that where he's like getting enough volume here. But I feel like 10 and a half receiving yards, you know, two to three receptions is very much a play

if the Eagles are facing like any kind of, you know, neutral to negative game script in this spot, Dagle, any thoughts there? I'm with Kanish on those numbers clearly getting steamed, but the issue is Kenneth Gainwell is so explosive that 10 and a half can easily be done, uh, in a competitive game where he's only playing on third down. So I guess if you told me to choose one, it'd probably be the over, but yeah. Yeah. And those are receiving props. I think condition is more referring to the rushing props because the rushing props got up to as high as 25 at one point rushing yards,

which is outrageous because the whole season is props were like 12 and a half, 13 and a half. And now we're seeing even 20 and a half just because he's looked awesome and has played a lot more in the second half. Noonan any thoughts on, on Gainwell? I bet Gainwell over seven and a half receiving yards uh against the niners i did some work on that it was pretty consistent where um the only time that they were like he was having these spike weeks was against like stout run defenses otherwise he was kind of back and forth between

right around that number but we saw some spikes against really good rush defenses and he was kind of back and forth between right around that number but we saw some spikes against really good rush defenses and that was kind of my handicap last week because I thought they'd have some struggle running against the Niners and that works I don't think that they necessarily have struggles running against the Chiefs here if they decide that they want to so I don't think it really fits there now we're you know it's not a huge number it's seven and a half to ten and a half but it's enough for me to stay off of you know it's not a huge number it's seven and a half to ten and a half but uh it's enough for me to stay off of it considering it's a little bit higher and if it's only one ball um that could be pretty tricky yeah that's that's kind of what i worry

about too and then the other one that i was looking at i guess like other two would be like the i don't even know if we want to get into this the whole chief's mess at wide receiver i mean like noah gray justin watson Cadareous, Tony MBS, Juju, like all their props are too low. And Patrick most process passing prop right now is 295 yards. And then it's Travis Kelsey at 77. And then it's like a bunch of guys like 37 and less.

So like some of these are going to be really, really wrong. It's just like, which ones are going to be wrong. Cause I mean, Kelsey's not going to have 200 receiving yards. So I don't know, like,

okay, so let's just walk through the exercise. Like say, you know, all of them are active outside of Hardman. Like, is there any specific guy that we should be targeting or like thinking about here? Because I'm kind of attracted to Justin Watson. I don't know. Like, I feel like maybe that's irrational. I think that his props are really low because he's playing a lot, but he's not very good.

So I don't know. Like a longest reception for him is receiving yards is like 10 yards. So, uh, Daigle, any thoughts on any of these guys here? The issue is that, as you mentioned, all props for the Chiefs are off because it's as if they're scared to account for injury. So I almost think it's best to just bet the overs on like all of them.

Dude, even, I don't know if you've noticed, but even Patrick Mahomes' passing prop, it is minus money so it's minus 105 to go over 38 and a half pass attempts but it's even money to go over 20 and a half completions like how does that make any sense at all so it's almost best it's plus ev to attack the completions number. I think he's going to get there because Vegas think he's going to go over on pass attempts. So yeah, it's just, the chiefs numbers are really weird right now. Yeah. Noonan thoughts. I feel like the Eagles are giving them some, they're giving a little respect here to the Eagles. I mean,

there's my home's number opening like two 85, which I thought was like really low for some reason. I didn't play the over. I don't know. I was sleeping, sleep at the wheel there. But any thoughts on any of the guys we mentioned? I think, you know, Watson is a guy that's out there mostly running wind sprints. But at the same time, like when he is targeted,

it is down the field. So theoretically, like a longest reception would be the way to play him versus any cumulative yards or multiple receptions or anything like that. You know, Dagle did a good job poking some holes in MVS. I do think that there's, it's still the unaccounted for thing out there in the space is we just don't

know Juju is going to play. How healthy is he? What's going on with Tony? We saw seven targets for Sky Moore last time, enough to lead to a 250 to Superbowl MVP bet from Silva um so there just is some like variance in terms of what happens there you know you have the prospects of an in-game injury as well so like that very much could curtail things here which probably makes the bet everyone over uh theory probably uh slightly flawed But yeah, I think if anything, I think Juju's probably involved if they win.

I think if you are bullish enough to think that the Chiefs are, you want to take alts and get them at minus six and a half, you probably need Juju to be a part of that, right? I mean, he's kind of the guy that they need to be that secondary guy. I know we haven't seen it in a little while, but I don't know.

That seems to be the spot in the slot against Devontae Maddox where you can have some success against Philly. So, I mean, stuff with Juju is probably a little light. That's why if you're going to attack Justin Watson, betting on longest reception is the best way to go over, not actual receiving yards because the routes, as you mentioned, they don't matter.

They haven't mattered all year. Why would they suddenly start mattering, especially against probably the toughest boundary set of cornerbacks he's faced all year? All right, hear me out. You bet. All we just have to do is bet Juju,

Marcus Valdez-Scanling, and Kadarius Toney at 50-plus receiving yards for all of them at like plus 200 or plus 300. One of them is going to – well, two of them are going to hit. One or two of them are going to hit. Maybe – honestly, maybe it's just better to bet Noah Gray and Jody Fortson here at like 20-plus yards at plus money. I mean, one of them is going to catch a 25-yard pass.

I don't know which one, but one of them is going to catch a 20-yard pass, sit down, fall down, and then that will be it. So, I don't know. I'm pretty confident that it will be more more of a short game but who knows i that's why i like i brought it up and i'm like i don't even know there's a clear answer like it's just like a guessing game with like eight of these guys all i know is that it won't be sky more that's all i unequivocally know for a fact okay i. You just go over to FanDuel. If you got FanDuel, they're really nice.

They allow you to parlay T40 bets at the waste management. Just throw in a couple of Morikawa and Homa to T40. Plus 103. Plus 103. T40. We don't need them to win. Plus money. These guys win golf tournaments. we don't need him to win plus money

like these guys win golf tournaments we don't need him to do it Tom Kim Sun JM you want an all Asian T40 plus 126 what are we doing T40 for these guys like I mean so to Daniel's point just because you can bet on everything doesn't

mean you have to bet on everything we'll have tackles for you on Friday on the prop show. Uh, same time and place as normal 2 PM Eastern here on the, uh, four for four YouTube page. We'll get into a little bit more, you know,

probably specific, uh, your standard props. I'm going to save the tackles for the folks in there. I have one more. I've not added it. I'm going to, I might even save it to the show,

uh, for the show, knowing that like, it's not moving until I bet it.'m gonna i might even save it to the show uh for the show knowing that like it's not moving until i bet it and when i bet it's gonna move so we'll just do it live um and and hammer that there because it's kind of what i've seen so far this week in the market is like when we make a play on the tackles they move pretty drastically and when we stay off we don't see uh much line movement at all so uh one more on the chief side coming in um it may be another on the eagle side but definitely one of the chiefs we'll have that on friday love it love it yeah that uh some of the props dipped back down originally and i was i doubled

in so i'm at a full unit on these i i don't normally bet full units on tackle props but i'm at a full unit on uh the three that you've so far. So I'm very excited to sweat those. We got Nick Bolton down to nine and a half for a bit. That was just criminal. That is yeah. I think you can get Nick Bolton to be the, to lead the game and tackles on MGM or Caesars. I forget it like minus one 40,

which is like should probably be minus 200. Nick Bolton will definitely lead this game in tackles. So yeah, that's, that's a good play for you. But again, we'll have more of the tackle stuff. I wanted to write a tackle article this week. Life got in the way. So no deep dive tackle article, but again, we'll go live in deep on the prop show on Friday. So that is it for me guys, unless you guys have anything else we didn't touch on. So I'm good.

No, that was everything live. Yeah. Everything live, everything in the future. I think we, our sides, I think we touched on everything.

Honestly. Love it. Xander in a decade plus one Oh five T 40. I mean, what are we doing? Come on. Like hammer these, these are,

these are real bets that are going to actually win. Just remember only 40 people can be T40. It seems like you've got a lot more out there than that. No, I just gave you six guys. That's fine. I know what's happening on your computer, besides it burning down. I know what you're doing over there with 80 different players on T40s. I had a 10-legger at the Farmers.

10-legger t40 uh full full full unit zalatorris the only one that he missed the cut on the number uh with a really bad uh round two uh hit nine to ten it was painful i usually don't go 10 leggers i usually just do a bunch of two leggers rotate rotate the guys that I like. But yeah, that was a, there was a painful one. I need, I need Fandle. So it was my, I even sent Connor a screenshot of them. Like this is my attempt to make sure that my Fandle account stays fresh since my DraftKings is now fried. It's, it's funny how that works. So we always come one short.

There's a reason why parlays exist. Always. There's a reason why it exists. I'm 100% going to fire off like 50 MGM same game parlays because they let you parlay like alternate legs, like kind of like FanDuel does. And they just have like a really easy interface. I've started doing that a little more.

So I will be locked and loaded for the Super Bowl, getting some more exposure. You know, I already bet a Kelsey 100 plus, Sanders 85 plus, and that's like 15 to one or something like that. So getting maximum exposure to guys that I think could blow up, always a lot of fun. But before we go, just want to let everyone know two things. I dropped a novelty props video that will be releasing at,

I believe it's 3 p.m. Eastern tomorrow. I talked about how many TikToks Jackson Mahomes is going to make in the Super Bowl, Gatorade colors, National Anthem. So you get some more goods there in addition to what Kanish talked about. And if you want all of our official bets in one easy to read place, I know the audio is a little bit rough. You can find all of our bets over at 444.com for just 19 bucks. You'll easily make more than $19. I think I went like seven and three on my props last year. I know Noonan made money.

Sharp Clarkson Clarkson there. Now we have 12 bets that's included in that. So come hang, you know, get, get the bets there. Any last words from you guys or anything you guys want to promote? Fan dual sports book,

Caderius, Tony 55 to one first reception for the chiefs and mile Sanders, captain and DFS. You're welcome. Wait, he's 55 to one for first reception for the chiefs and miles sanders captain and dfs you're welcome wait he's 55 to one for first reception or plus plus 550 okay i was loading it up now i'm not gonna i was loading up there but he's he's still like the the seventh player on the chiefs to catch the first reception it's like three of them don't matter at all. Everyone calm down. I don't mind. I like 650 on Pacheco too, which might not be a bad point for you. I know you're in there.

Good stuff as always. Again, apologies to everyone at the top. We didn't have Silva. Kanish bailed on us and I had Wi-Fi reminiscent to Oregon Trail Days for anyone with AOL dial-up back in the day.

So good stuff as always. We will have a regular show this offseason. We will have a lot of draft content in the next couple of months. We will have regular draft shows leading into it. It is, I think we all agree, the best, if not one of the best betting events of the calendar year. We do our best to try to bring on other folks in the industry

that we talk a lot with at times. We'll try to maybe get our hands dirty on the prospect side, whatever we need to do to kind of make sure that we're ready for April when the draft comes and make sure we're prepared.

Again, take advantage, have as many books as you can. If you don't already, new states, make sure you're prepared. Again, take advantage. Have as many books as you can if you don't already. New States, make sure you sign up. You get that free money. You want to be able to get down as much as you can on the draft. It is a great, great betting experience. So we will not be going away, even though football is leaving us, unfortunately.

So, again, a reminder, Friday, 2 p.m. Eastern, Connor and Pat Mayo and myself, last prop drop of the season as well. And we'll hammer out kind of the rest of the stuff there. We'll get Mayo's thoughts on the novelty props and all of that. So good stuff as always. Appreciate you all very much. For Connor and Daniel, I'm Nuna.

We'll see you next time. Yeah! you