Move The Line - How 2024 NFL Coaching Changes Affect Player Values & Bets!

Episode Date: June 7, 2024

Explore the impact of 2024 NFL coaching changes on player values and betting strategies! Join us as we break down the key coaching moves, analyze new systems, and predict how these shifts will influen...ce player performance and betting odds. From offensive overhauls to defensive shake-ups, get the insights you need to stay ahead in your fantasy leagues and betting pools. Don't miss out – subscribe now for expert analysis on how coaching changes will shape the 2024 NFL season! Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼   / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  / rynoonan   Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/ Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Hello and welcome to Move the Line presented by 4 for 4 Bets. Ryan Noonan back here as always with Connor Allen. Football season never stops. We are here to touch on the impactful coaching changes that have happened since the last time we have watched football. A lot of them around the league, head coaching jobs offensive coordinators defensive coordinators how does this impact player performance how does this impact team uh projections win totals anything that we can attack and find an edge here in the betting markets connor what's going on buddy yeah not a whole lot it's uh this is always an interesting show because i think a lot of this stuff really matters for betting purposes for player props for fantasy obviously we don't really dive into that too much on the show
Starting point is 00:00:48 but like all that stuff matters a lot I think you know head coaching which head coaches are calling plays office of coordinators and I think this year we have two to three like massive stylistic changes uh that we'll see on different teams here that I'm pretty excited to talk about yeah love it so if you're hanging out with us, we appreciate it. Subscribe to the YouTube channel here at 444BETS. Also, you can listen to this in podcast form or you listen to podcasts as well. Subscribe, rate and review all those things really help us out. Allow us to do lots of other things, build some cool tools, lots of other stuff going
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Starting point is 00:02:20 Hit us up. Let us know. All right. We'll start alphabetically. We'll start at the top we'll start with the head coaches as you touched on connor i will touch on any of the coordinator changes that are impactful as well some of these are you know as typically see defensive-minded coaches that'll still do uh play calling same thing on the offensive side it's you know you
Starting point is 00:02:39 get an oc by name more of a game plan guy We'll touch base on any of these that we think are massively impactful. First here is the head coaching position in Atlanta, Raheem Morris. Been with the Falcons before. Has been a coach on both sides of the ball before. Head coach in Tampa Bay a few years ago. I think that Raheem Morris deserved assistant coach of the year. I actually joked about it. Can we give Raheem Morris the coach of the year award?
Starting point is 00:03:07 And I didn't really know. There actually is an assistant coach of the year award as well. Obviously, it doesn't get a lot of pub, but it did exist. You can bet on it. You put it in the betting markets and we'd be good to go. It's true. If we can't bet on it, does anything exist? But, like, dude, the job that Raheem Morris did last year with a,
Starting point is 00:03:27 I mean, to say a no-name defense with the Rams, I mean, it was part of, to be honest, part of my Rams handicap last year was just like, hey, this team has punted on draft picks for years, and there's a trickle-down effect at a certain point when you're the majority of your starters on the defensive side of the ball. And literally, the majority of them were day three or undrafted free agents. And Raheem Morris kept that team competitive. Now, it wasn't a great defense, but he kept them competitive and allowed a healthy Matt Stafford to do his thing on the offensive side of the ball.
Starting point is 00:04:02 He parlayed that into a head coaching job. An interesting one because this seemed to be like the last spot for Bill Belichick to land and Raheem Morris got the job over him. So that's an interesting thing. He'll be kind of on the defensive side of the ball. He's bringing Zach Robertson with him from LA Connor, again, another in the McVay disciple line. And I think there's some optimism with Zach Robertson coming over here.
Starting point is 00:04:25 Jimmy Lake's going to be hired to be the defensive head coach, but again, it's going to be mostly Raheem Morris' gate here. But talk to me about Atlanta. Yeah, Atlanta's interesting. I think you mentioned already with Raheem Morris. Last year with the Rams' defense, it was basically just Aaron Donald and some of the worst slash inexperienced players that we've seen, and they pulled it together pretty well.
Starting point is 00:04:46 I mean, they were a competent defense on a week-to-week basis for the most part and just like well outplayed their talent. And I think that's generally a good indicator of how good coaches are able to kind of maximize their talent there. And then Zach Robinson, obviously the offensive coordinator is a massive upgrade here. Again, we're going from Arthur Smith, the run heavy, you know, old school ways to now just a much different offense here with them um you know they have drake london they signed darnell mooney
Starting point is 00:05:09 trade for rondo more they got kirk cousins obviously so like they're i think they're going to be able to sling the ball a bunch throw the ball a ton as well as play good defense here so we've talked about it before like the falcons you know the two things can be true the falcons messed up picking mich Penix overall, and they can still be the best team in the division. And I think given their coaching upgrades and player upgrades outside of the Michael Penix pick, they're in a really good position here. So I don't know much about Jimmy Lake, to be honest,
Starting point is 00:05:34 but Zach Robinson and Raheem Morris, I think, are both very solid additions. Yeah, I think they're going to be solid additions too. I think it's a great way to sum it up, right? I think there's undoubtedly a mistake was made in the draft, but at the same time, the talent there is it's better than a lot of the other stuff going on in the division. So Zach Robinson,
Starting point is 00:05:53 again, like never called plays, but there's just this like, you know, learning by osmosis thing that's, you know, that has happened. And there's been some success with guys coming off of the big vague tree in
Starting point is 00:06:03 terms of play calling and stuff like that. So there's optimism there that makes sense. And again, like we just feel like anything in Atlanta is an upgrade, obviously after what's been going on there, especially from like a play calling standpoint. So if there's the ability to be more of a talent maximizer, that's a little bit more encouraging. And I think that's why you see some of the optimism in the marketplace for what's going on there in Atlanta. Yeah. Jimmy Lake is used to be the head coach at the university of Washington and was out of football for a year.
Starting point is 00:06:33 And then he was with this whole team with, you know, with Morris and Robinson with the Rams last year and is coming over. So yeah, there's just some continuity. And again, it's going to be Raheem Morris'sris's uh defense and should be should be pretty interesting uh some talent there too have a nice interior defensive line good group of linebackers i'll
Starting point is 00:06:52 see what they can get out of the the safety and cornerback group should be uh interesting here all right next dave canelis new head coach in carolina uh canelis again another guy that surprised us last year first year on the job he had been with pete carroll for a very long time in seattle uh gets one year to call plays in tampa bay and leads them to i mean no one wanted to win that division but uh eventually uh tampa bay did and i think you know canals deserves some respect and he gets it by landing a coaching job after one year as a coordinator with what he did with baker mayfield. Brad Isaac comes over as the offensive coordinator, again, more of a game planning thing. This will be Dave Kanellis calling plays. Now in Kanellis' press conferences, you
Starting point is 00:07:33 typically see these guys like, you know, we want to create culture. We're going to run the football. This is going to be our identity. I'm committed to doing that. Now this could be a talent thing and personnel thing more so than anything, because that doesn't really line up with what they did in Tampa Bay last year. But talk to me about Dave Cannell. It's hard not to be at least a little bit optimistic. Again, it could not be much worse than what happened in Carolina last year. Yeah, it's interesting because you did mention, you know, he was talking about like, oh, we want to, you know, the number one thing we need to do is run the football. We need to be better there and go from there.
Starting point is 00:08:06 And it kind of brings me back to our conversations last year about Tampa Bay where we're like, okay, the offensive line is so bad that, you know, are they going to be able to run the ball? If Baker Mayfield's under pressure, we know that he's not really all that good. I'm still not convinced that he's all that good, to be fair. But, uh, you know, I think that that's part of this whole transition is that we're in a, not a similar spot, but almost in a spot where like, we have some serious questions about the talent around him. Um, but Dave can always made the most of it and made Tampa Bay like a pretty competent offense for the most part. Now they had Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, which I think goes a long way, but you know, Deontay Johnson is a solid addition. We'll get, can be used in some certain ways that I think could be interesting here. They also invested a bunch in the offensive line. Paulson put out his piece over at 4-4.
Starting point is 00:08:49 It's like the most investment in offensive line in the last four years. And those teams tend to make a massive jump in offensive line rankings and pass block win rate and run block win rate as well. So I don't know. I mean, it's one of those things where
Starting point is 00:09:01 when a coach says like, hey, we want to come and run the ball and be old school. For me, that's like a red flag generally right off the top. But then the more that I dive into like some of the other moving pieces and some other things that he said beyond that, I'm kind of interested. So like I was really interested in fading this Panthers team right off the rip, but I guess I'm not as interested at this point, to be honest, because I think that there is
Starting point is 00:09:20 a chance and I don't want to get caught holding the bag with the talent maximizer head coach on the other side. Cause it's happened to us a couple times and it's one of those things that from an outsider's perspective like we just don't really know or have that good of an idea no it's a great point um it could be something there and especially I think a combination of that too right really good coaching and in a division that's still fairly wide open right I feel like we think that the Falcons are good the saints are in the mix i don't know what you but like it's it's a division that there are wins to be had um out
Starting point is 00:09:51 there for people and that just kind of creates a little bit more of a noisy situation too so uh you mean like what they did in tampa kind of middle of the pack in terms of like neutral situation run rates a first down run rate so like they ran the ball but they weren't like he wasn't stubborn and locked into it so i don't know if it's just kind of coach speak i wouldn't expect you know him to be like married to this especially if that uh doesn't seem to work but again like if you look at like unit grades on the offensive side like the quarterback room the running back room wide wide receiver, offensive line. Offensive line is the best group here in Carolina.
Starting point is 00:10:28 So leaning a little bit on the run, if that works, there's some depth, I guess, at the running back position too. I don't know that there's a guy, but there's multiple guys. So they can figure that out too. So, and again, Isaac, the youngest offensive coordinator in the league. But again, we'll be calling plays. This is another guy that spent years together.
Starting point is 00:10:48 There's continuity here. They were together as part of the coaching staff in Seattle. He went to Tampa Bay one year last year with Kanellis as the wide receiver coach, and now he moves over with him too. So just, you know, young group of guys that are, you know, I would think probably open to doing things a little bit differently. So yeah, reason to be optimistic. And I get what you're saying.
Starting point is 00:11:07 It's a team that you look at the roster and you're like, it's hard to see a bunch of wins here again. But, yeah, you never know. It could be something that the coach has the ability to tap into. All right, next, the Las Vegas Raiders officially promoted Antonio Pierce, who was the interim last year, seemed to be a lot of uh love inside that building uh from the player standpoint for pierce to get the job uh so be interested to see
Starting point is 00:11:32 how that kind of moves forward uh patrick graham stays on to be the defensive coordinator the interesting side here is luke getzey uh who west coast uh, you know, been around for a little bit coming off of some time with the bears is now the offensive coordinator in LA or in Las Vegas for the Raiders, a team that you have been open. It was your team last week that you really pushed in terms of, you know, betting the under on the team's total. And I think there's some Luke gets the framing in there, if that's correct.
Starting point is 00:12:04 Yeah. I don't want to rehash the whole argument, but I did bet they're under at seven. I think it's still six and a half plus money. I mean, I just could not be less impressed with Luke Getzey and just his ability to squander talent, squander just everything. I mean, what he put on in Chicago is a complete disaster. And, you know, Justin Fields, I think, takes certainly some of the blame with everything. But, I mean, it's just a joke. Like, I thought this was one of the worst hires of the offseason. Antonio Pierce thought that was fine.
Starting point is 00:12:29 There's definitely something to be said for being a leader, for being a motivator, and that whole concept there. I think that he did a great job. It came against a very weak schedule. We rehashed in the last episode. So I just don't really think – I don't see a whole lot here, especially given their roster weaknesses. Luke Getzey is not going to maximize what they have here so um i would not be surprised if we see like mid-season trade for davante adams like i think
Starting point is 00:12:54 this is all like very very possible on the table here because i i mean i wouldn't be surprised to see them clean house again here pretty quickly to be honest there's continuity with getzey spending a lot of time before getting the bears job as the uh was the quarterback coach and the wide receiver coach in green bay so like davante adams has familiarity with that playbook in that offense so maybe there's a relationship there but like he seems to skew run heavy antonio pierce seems to be a little bit of that like old school you know let's pound the football. I don't know that they're built for that per se. Offensive line, again, another part of your handicap there.
Starting point is 00:13:33 They have a strong left tackle, Colton Miller, but the rest of it's not great. So the talent there is pretty suspect too. Again, you don't have an answer quarterback. It makes it a little bit harder. And again, a defense that is strong up front, but lacks a lot in the back half. So again, we went long on the Raiders last week, but not,
Starting point is 00:13:54 not a staff. I don't think either of us are, are super duper excited about. So yeah, I mean, leader of men type stuff, CEO type stuff. I get why Pierce got a shot. We'll see how that goes yeah probably the most oh go ahead sorry yeah i was gonna say uh last bit here on getsy if you go back to his time in green bay um i'm pretty sure he was like fourth in line it's like third slash fourth in line of terms of like pecking order because they had like lafleur um someone
Starting point is 00:14:20 else was there as the official offensive coordinator and then he was the the quarterbacks coach plus you had aaron rogers there who i mean basically is just changing the play to whatever Someone else was there as the official offensive coordinator. And then he was the quarterbacks coach. Plus you had Aaron Rodgers there who, I mean, basically is just changing the play to whatever he wants anyways, slash is implementing his own thing. So, I mean, really how impactful was that guy? And that was very apparent again, right away with the bears. And, you know, the whole reason that he got another office coordinator job is because he's
Starting point is 00:14:39 like, quote, well-respected within the league, which in my mind is just kind of bullshit for like you know basically he worked with other people who have been successful but has proven to not be successful so i don't know i'm yeah i just could not be more out and i will be fading the raiders and the raiders offense especially anything relating to getsy you know as much as possible this year yeah i think all of this is really tough when you talk about like this proximity really to really good coaching and hoping that it translates is because like sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't like look at the Belichick tree.
Starting point is 00:15:10 Historically, like one of the, if it was an actual tree, it just would be this big ass pile of like dead leaves and branches on the grounds. Right? Like it'd be huge because there's, it's a big tree,
Starting point is 00:15:21 but none of it's really bloomed or flourished at all. And there's other trees that have historically been fantastic. Right? Because it's a big tree, but none of it's really bloomed or flourished at all. And there's other trees that have historically been fantastic, right? Like Jimmy Johnson back in the day, the Cowboys, there's a lot of guys that have come out of that staff and have been successful coaches. So, yeah, you just never know, right? There's just a joke that anyone who's got Sean McVay a cup of coffee over the last 10 years is going to land an offensive coordinator job or head coaching job eventually.
Starting point is 00:15:46 It doesn't necessarily mean that once they get into position that they're going to be able to thrive. So it's always really hard to project when we haven't seen these guys in the chair yet and having to make these decisions on what they're going to do. Probably the most impactful in terms of like, you know, noteworthy coaching changes here is Jim Harbaugh taking over in Los Angeles. He's, again, successful tenure with Michigan Wolverines, successful tenure at Stanford, successful tenure at, obviously, with the 49ers before.
Starting point is 00:16:17 So he goes and wins, typically. It's one of those guys that you feel like there's a shelf life to it in terms of, like, you know, win, especially at the NFL level, capturing the room. It's a shelf life to it in terms of like you know weight especially the nfl level capturing the room it's a different type of uh environment but it's hard not to be optimistic of what the short-term future is for the chargers with harbaugh coming in now a little bit of a wet blanket there is greg roman coming in as the offensive coordinator uh again spend time together coaching. Roman's worked with both Harbaugh brothers,
Starting point is 00:16:49 worked with Jim back when they were in San Francisco. They've been very honest. They're going to run the football. They want to run the football a ton. They don't have great weapons to throw to. They've invested another top five pick in Joe Alts. They're built to run this team in San Francisco. Again, football's changed a little bit,
Starting point is 00:17:05 even in the last decade or so. This was always a top 10 team in San Francisco. Again, football's changed a little bit, even in the last decade or so. This is always a top 10 team in rushing attempts, you know, pass rush, over expectation, low. This is what Roman likes to do as a play caller. So expect that to continue here. What are your thoughts on the Chargers? Yeah, it's interesting you mentioned Jim Harbaugh's winning because if you look at his four seasons in San Francisco prior, this is 2011 to 2014, the season before he took over,
Starting point is 00:17:32 they were 6-10, and then he comes in 13-3, 11-4, 12-4, and then 8-8 in his final season. I mean, just immediately turned it around. Obviously, there are other circumstances regarding players and other things, but still still it's like immediate turnaround. Obviously had plenty of success basically everywhere he's gone. And I think that it's not like this team doesn't have personnel. Like they added the offensive line.
Starting point is 00:17:54 I think Justin Herbert's a fantastic quarterback. He just needs to be, I don't know. I think he needs a little bit more of the right place and make right decisions. And, you know, Vlad McConkie, I think was a very underrated pick in this draft. Josh Palmer's still there. Like they're going to be able to throw the ball when they need to, but probably run the ball plenty as well. And they had some defensive talent. It's just like, they just have never panned out basically. And so it's one of those things where if he can maximize the talent on this team, I think that they're, you know, maybe a nine win team fringe playoff contender here
Starting point is 00:18:21 in this spot. And so I'm kind of interested in here. I don't love Greg Roman just because of some of his other tendencies. It seemed like a very uncreative kind of offense, like super run heavy, but it was like a lot of like jumbo stuff. It's exactly what Harbaugh wants. And I think in today's NFL, it's not normal. And like, you know, you see the McVeighs, the Shanahan's, who are doing some unique things all the time. I mean, it's not like you can't succeed with that.
Starting point is 00:18:43 In today's NFL, it's just not the same. So I'm interested and like cautiously optimistic, I would say. Yeah, I don't think the floor is that low because I think there's enough talent here. And I think Harbaugh is that strong. But even though it's not that low, I wouldn't be super surprised if they meet it because I still have a lot of questions on the roster but we'll see i mean i think if
Starting point is 00:19:09 they could figure it out um you know again if you have the answer quarterback and i think we think that justin herbert is that guy a certain point like we're gonna have to have to stop kind of making excuses for him he's he's had situations like he played injured two years ago and then last year was so much you know there was injured guys they couldn't stay in the field like it was a dead coaching staff and like he's got to kind of ring the bell here uh at a certain point and if you can't get it done for a coach that's just come in and won right away at a certain point that gets a little bit harder so now are his hands tied is he going to be in a situation where that was similar to
Starting point is 00:19:43 what they've had in the years past where it's like all right you keep putting this guy in second and ten third and long scenarios to make a hero ball like that could be the case again because you look again it could be very different when you were you know with the baltimore and you had that offensive line you had lamar jackson you're going to run a lot. 2019 to 2022, Roman is the offensive coordinator. They were first or second in first down rush rate in each of those years. So we know if you can take advantage and not necessarily just always throw on first down, but if you are predictable on first down and you don't have a successful run play and you keep putting your team in second and long, that's a really tough position to play from. And then a Herbert has to play hero ball and doesn't have a bunch
Starting point is 00:20:28 of weapons that can elevate and help him get that done. So that's going to be interesting to track. Again, maybe the investment in the offensive line just continues to not matter and they can run successfully on early downs, but I'm not super optimistic there. It's kind of a team that I want to kind of take an under on or fade i just i but i don't because i because i think herbert could be that guy uh just not a team that i'm like really buying or looking to take overs on because i've i just have concerns yeah that's fair it's well yeah low high floor low ceiling team yeah exactly uh all right next new england uh drawn mayo uh kind of the succession plan that was planned out.
Starting point is 00:21:06 No surprise. It was kind of like the Belichick out. No surprise that the Mayo announcement basically comes the next day. Interesting to see what happens there. Obviously, long-time awesome Patriot as a player. He's been on the coaching staff for a while as one of the defensive coaches. Now, it's really interesting. Belichick on the way out, one of, if coaches now it's really interesting belichick on the way out one of if
Starting point is 00:21:26 not the best defensive head coaches of all time a historically great defensive coordinator mayo obviously had his hand in this his his son steven had his hand in the defense so how much is or was new england's success last year defensively and they were good again we Again, we touched on it. They lost their two best defensive players, yet still were a top 10 defense in basically every important metric down the stretch with an offense that kept putting them back on the field and not a ton of talent outside of the guys that they had lost. So it mentioned to see how they can elevate.
Starting point is 00:22:00 Alex Van Pelt is in as the offensive coordinator. He'd been with Cleveland, not calling plays behind Kevin Stefanski, but had been part of that for a long time. It's just kind of an old-school West Coast system that he's going to bring to New England. We'll see what happens with the quarterbacks there. Tough spot for Mayo. I think we both don't see a ton of wins on this Patriots schedule.
Starting point is 00:22:21 Yeah, I don't really know what to do with any of these guys because it's just been like Bill Belichick and everyone else for so long. And then now it's Gerard Mayo. And I mean, I guess you can make a case for Alex and probably you mentioned like he isn't called plays. So like, and the whole Cleveland experience last year was wild because they're wildly run heavy. Joe Flacco comes in, they pass the ball 50 times a game and just go bananas. And then, you know, obviously lose, but like they played well. So I have no idea what to expect to be honest. I don't think given their personnel, they're going to come in and do anything like what we saw with Joe Flacco there. I think that we're more likely to see, I don't know, like when they had Deshaun Watson and, you know, we're trying to run the ball a ton and kind
Starting point is 00:22:55 of manage him because he's been playing horribly as well. That's my base expectation. I just don't know if they have the talent to really do that. So yeah, this is for me, it's very much like a very pessimistic outlook for this Patriots team. And I don't think that any of these coaches are like real talent maximizers. So it's tough for me to envision them being fantastic outside of, you mentioned defensively, like if they took a big step forward, everyone's healthy. Maybe they flirt with top five numbers and keep them in games and like they run the ball a ton and like just keep games close. And I think that's like their best shot at like winning games basically yeah they want to to run the football um and you kind of have to i think with this receiver room uh but like the offensive line
Starting point is 00:23:36 is great it's not an offensive line that can dictate tempo and establish it and just kind of control the game so it's going to be it's going to be tough. It's a tough first year. Again, just not still a team massively devoid of talent. Now, again, the defense is interesting. I think they can make some plays. But, again, when you – I think they're going to be in a spot where you're going to be on the field for 35, 40 minutes a game. That's just really hard.
Starting point is 00:24:02 Part of why, I mean, there's a ton of talent in Cleveland defensively, but they just never were on the field either last year. They just got three and outs and got their ball back to the offense and allowed them to do stuff, and they just shut teams down. I don't know that New England has it enough when they're going to be on the field so much. So, yeah, tough spot. Division's good.
Starting point is 00:24:22 Not a lot of wins. Again, toughest uh in the entire league and arguably the worst roster too so tough spot for a first year head coach but obviously it feels like he's got a long leash he's been the guy that's you know been the next in line uh for a very long time so um time is his and hopefully he can survive a tough year you never want to be the guy that follows the guy but uh again it's also hard to turn down a head coaching job when one gets offered to you too. All right, next Seattle, Mike McDonald, first shot of becoming a head coach was, I think did a great job in Baltimore running the offense there last year. Exciting minded head
Starting point is 00:25:00 coach and a lot of talent on this defensive side of the ball that I think that they can work with us. I think Seattle could be interesting defensively. The offense could be as well. Ryan Grubb comes over as the offensive coordinator. He spent time in Washington last year in college. Again, a team that had a lot of guys drafted into the league, but at the same time, they had some interesting offensive stuff they ran a lot of shotgun a lot of pistol a lot of motion uh and again they have a lot of talent there too
Starting point is 00:25:31 if geno smith can can figure it out obviously a nice little trio of receivers nice decent offensive line uh some good running backs so seattle is an interesting team if they can get it going what are your thoughts here yeah the more that i dug in i think that this is like one of the potentially the most impactful coaching changes I think around the league because we had Mike McDonald go into last year as a defensive coordinator in Baltimore. And I don't think, I think we talked about this preseason. Like we thought they had some pieces, but like maybe, you know, fringe top 10 unit, like best case. I mean, he made him a top five unit. Like they were good. They were an awesome defense last year in a lot of ways. And I think Seattle has plenty of pieces that are fantastic. You know, a lot of interesting ways, like, especially,
Starting point is 00:26:15 you know, you got the dog, Devin Witherspoon. And I mean, you're more of a defensive guy than I am. So like, what do you, like, how would you compare just like on paper, this Seattle unit to Baltimore previously? Again, we didn't pretend, pretend you didn't see last season happen where they dominated, like heading into the season. Like, I mean, not that far apart, right? Yeah. So actually that was part of it.
Starting point is 00:26:35 I was, I think you and Clark were pretty pro Baltimore last year. I wasn't, I had concerns about the defense. So the fact that he got them to be like a top three unit is really impressive. And it's actually really interesting because I think in terms of personnel where there's, well, I mean, the linebacker room in Baltimore is significantly better. But like there's some similarities personnel wise because like my concern in Baltimore was a secondary, some injuries and pretty thin. The secondary is actually way better in Seattle. I didn't really see where the pass rush was coming from in Baltimore last year. And they kind of scraped it together, like unretired Kyle Van Noy.
Starting point is 00:27:17 They got a little bit more out of Clowney than really we had seen in the last like five, six years. And that's kind of where Seattle is as well. Like I don't know where a lot of the pass rush is coming from in terms of like edge rushers but the interior the defensive line is really good they made that trade mid-season for leonard williams from the giants who's really good uh jaron reed solid then they go out and draft byron murphy a fantastic interior disruptor from a pass rushing standpoint uh from tex Williams, Reed, and Murphy in the interior, like Draymond Jones is still there too. He's really solid.
Starting point is 00:27:50 So they have a lot of interior depth. So they can kind of generate pressure differently. I don't love their linebacker group, but the back end of the defense is solid. They brought Rayshon Jenkins over from Jacksonville. Julian Love is still there so in the cornerback room is is nice so yeah i mean there's there's a lot to like here especially if this is someone that does seem to be a talent maximizer an elevator defensively and the same
Starting point is 00:28:16 thing with ryan grubb like we don't have a ton of data on him but like they like to chuck it deep and see uh in washington seattle has the guys to do that too. So there could be, I don't know if there's, there's a ceiling to Seattle this year. I think there is. Yeah. And I think like we talked about the chargers have a pretty tight range of outcomes.
Starting point is 00:28:33 I think Seattle is a very wide range of outcomes. Like if Mike McDonald's, you know, scheming doesn't pan out. If Ryan grub, I mean, we've seen college coaches come into the NFL all the time and fail. Like grub scheme in college was awesome.
Starting point is 00:28:43 It was wide open. You know, there's constantly guys just running, you know, like slot fades basically out of there. It's fun and they had a ton of talent and they were able to execute it. There's a very real chance that it just doesn't work at all in the NFL level. But then what's made me even more optimistic though is that in the press conferences, they've asked Ryan Grubbs like, hey, what are you going to do? Is it going to be exactly like Washington? And he's kind of like, well, we're going to implement some stuff, but we're still going to run the ball a bunch.
Starting point is 00:29:09 We want to focus on defense. So it's still, I think, going to have some hardcore Seattle identity with, I believe, Pete Carroll is like an advisor to the team in some aspects. Again, he did one of the final say, but I have to believe that that organization probably wants to remain some kind of that identity there and it'll just look a little bit different. So, but again, if you can implement a little bit more emotion, a little bit more different scheming, plus a good, strong defense. And I think that the ceiling here is pretty high because they do have talent. So I don't know.
Starting point is 00:29:39 I'm, I'm excited slash interested. The more that I break down Seattle about potentially playing like some alt overs. I don't really think that they're that live to win the division but i think all thought alt overs are pretty interesting yeah that's a good call i think there's i think there's ceiling here too for sure um yeah they're gonna be an interesting team to watch see if you know young guy that can continue that with mcdonald will be will be interesting uh tennessee has made a move with brian callahan as the head coach. He comes over from, he's going to be calling plays for the first time. Again, is a disciple of a McVay disciple, basically. Has spent time with Zach Taylor in Cincinnati over the last handful of years.
Starting point is 00:30:18 Previously as well, obviously, with the Rams. Nick Holtz comes over as the offensive coordinator. Again, Holtz is just, again, a guy that's going to be on the staff, but it's going to be Callahan calling the plays. Yeah, what do you think here? Tennessee moving on from Vrabel was surprising. Vrabel not landing another job seems surprising too. But Tennessee's had a busy offseason.
Starting point is 00:30:39 What do you think? Yeah, I don't know what to do with Brian Callahan as like a coach specifically. All I know is that he's going to probably pass the ball significantly more than they used to. you think yeah i don't know what to do with brian callan as like a coach specifically all i know that is that he's going to probably pass the ball significantly more than they used to um you know we saw in zach taylor you know with brian callan and office coordinator 2023 third highest neutral pass rate 2022 sixth highest 2021 10th highest um they obviously added calvin ridley um they added to the offensive line there's like adding as many tyler boyd in the slot deandre hopkins is hopefully healthy like i think they're gonna pass the ball significantly more and then when they've been talking about the running backs it's been like very much like oh
Starting point is 00:31:11 we're excited to use them in the passing game like it's not like this is a good player it's just oh how are we gonna use sony pollard and tajay spears in the passing game so it's just like they we saw some i guess a flash from willvis, and then the rest of the season was pretty brutal. But he has way more talent now, a different system. I think that there's potential upside. I'm not going to count him out completely given all the other moves. And so Callahan here coming in, I'm interested. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:31:40 I really don't know what it's going to look like in terms of execution. I have an idea of what it's going to look like in their minds and what they think is going to happen, which is going to be pass heavy, kind of like that short, kind of getting the short game going a little bit more than they had. And it's not going to look like the Titans in previous seasons like at all. I think it's going to be like diametrically opposite in terms of like shotgun versus under center, which is what they were doing before and all that. So I don't know. I'm excited there, I would say specifically, but I don't know why I have this lingering thing about Brian Callahan being a donkey, and I don't remember exactly where it's from. But I just have this pit in my stomach with Brian Callahan and Zach Taylor, and I can't quite shake it fully. Yeah. I mean, look, Zach Taylor wasn't like – people thought they got to the Super Bowl despite him for a little while.
Starting point is 00:32:25 Like, and it's almost like he doesn't get a lot of credit for what's gone well in Cincinnati. It's like, oh, yeah, Joe Burrow is awesome. It's like the actual Cincinnati was pretty decent last year with Burrow going down. Like they almost fought their way into the playoff game. So, yeah, it's it's interesting to see what happens. And there's like there's a combination of uh what our our buddy uh evan silver would call the cocoon right there's some nepotism here with like you know his daddy's been a ball coach for a long time so he grew up around the game and uh came back to him you know dad came
Starting point is 00:32:55 home yeah dad came home so uh yeah so be sure to see what happens there there's just some weird like personnel groups on this team there There's some really strong units, and then it's just absolutely depleted in some areas still. So I'm going to be interested to see how that kind of works. Tennessee has just been a team. I don't know. I wanted to be a Will Levis guy. There were some really bad games last year.
Starting point is 00:33:20 Now they've gone out and just made sure that they're going to give him. I like when teams do this. You've got a rookie contract, especially a guy in the non-first round. You've got to get a little bit more answers to see if this is your guy, but he's cheap. Let's give him all the resources that we can. Let's go ahead and accept offensive line. Although, you know, J.C. Latham was an addition in the first round here,
Starting point is 00:33:42 but he's spending a boatload on Calvin Ridley and bringing in Tyler Boyd. Now, last year there were games where Nick Westbrook, Akini, and Kyle Phillips were wide receiver one and two with Traylon Burks out. Like, rough, right? So now you're going out and you're really kind of supplementing that and letting other guys fall in their spot. Now, can Levis not force the ball into uh you know double
Starting point is 00:34:07 coverage can he not eat sacks in an elite rates um that's going to be the challenge for them and the offensive line is still has some questions so uh i think brian callahan is this is he brought dad in for a reason because bill callahan's been you know widely regarded as one of the best offensive line coaches in the league for the last 25 years or so. So we'll see what happens there. But not a team that I'm overly optimistic. And part of it is the division, right? Like I made my case for the Colts.
Starting point is 00:34:34 I still think the Texans, that roster is really strong. You know, Jacksonville is kind of still considered one of the better teams talent-wise in the division too. So Tennessee just kind of falls comfortably fourth for me. But we'll wait and see. Last one here, head coach wise. I'm not sure that's super duper exciting either, but we'll wait and see what happens. Dan Quinn, head coach now in Washington.
Starting point is 00:34:59 Second round here, obviously head coach in Atlanta previously. You know, kind of went out with a fart in church with his time there in Dallas. The defense was not great down the stretch, had a ton of talent, but didn't seem to be able to deviate. Kind of was just a guy that ran his thing. We'll see what happens there. Cliff Kingsbury comes in as the offensive coordinator. Again, another guy that we've expected to be more exciting,
Starting point is 00:35:30 a younger, are we going to do a little bit different? And that hasn't really panned out with Kingsbury here. Can he do it now with Jane Daniels? We'll see. What are your thoughts on Washington? I mean, is Dan Quinn like a good coach? Do we still even know? Because he had Kyle Shanahan with him in Atlanta for a
Starting point is 00:35:45 while when they were like really good and the defense was never like you know I mean they had one one or two years where it was like fine uh the 2017 years I think they were top 10 and in yards allowed but the rest of the seasons we're looking at like 20th you know and in total yards like there's just like a lot of issues here with what we've seen from him. And so I don't know, this almost kind of seems like a cocoon hire to me, like, Oh, Dan Quinn, like he's had some good years, you know, he was good to Dallas at one point, I guess for a little bit. And then the kind of the same thing goes for Cliff Kingsbury. Like he was super exciting when we came, he came to Arizona originally. And then I think that the shine, you know, kind of lost some of its luster there as things
Starting point is 00:36:25 went on and the horizontal raid was kind of proven to not really work all that well. Now, I think I wonder, like, has he reinvented himself a little bit or was that just Caleb Williams, you know, at USC? Like, I don't know. It's again, these are questions that we don't really have the answer to. And then you're throwing them in a system where there's not a ton of talent on both sides of the ball here. Like you can make a case for maybe, you know,
Starting point is 00:36:47 Jaden Daniels being a massive step up. You can make a case for like Terry McLaurin being solid. But I mean, the rest of the receivers, like John Dotson's basically dead at this point. Like it's, they don't, I know, rest in peace. We thought it could be good. And it's just like his advanced metrics are, I mean, arguably some of the worst in the league at this point. It's not great.
Starting point is 00:37:04 But yeah, I don't know. I mean, defensively, are you the league it's not great um yeah i don't know i mean defensively are you excited about them at all because i just don't know what to do with this team to be honest no i'm not super uh excited about defensively it's a pretty rough cornerback room um and or you see that picture of forbes looks like he's like literally looks like you're you're you're 15 year old kid it's rough man uh and that was the forbes thing it was crazy the dude that he's like if you haven't seen it uh he's at this camp like signing a jersey to one of the camp goers who is significantly larger uh than emmanuel forbes last year's first round cornerback who again got benched in season um just a non-tackler he just he's he weighs like 160 pounds um you got you gotta have elite ball skills and that's kind of
Starting point is 00:37:54 what happened i think they fell in love with like some pick sixes in college and stuff like that like this is a rough room to get benched uh during the middle of season more and like it's basically the same uh cornerback room. Like, I drafted my guy out of Michigan who was an absolute dog in the slot, but, like, you know, he's, like, 5'7". So he's never playing. He's, like, smaller than Mike Hilton. So, like, he's never going to play on the outside.
Starting point is 00:38:18 It's one of the worst cornerback rooms in the league. So I'm interested to see what happened there. It was weird. Like, they added Johnny Newton, knowing the only thing they really have solid on the team is the interior of the defensive line with Payne and Allen. So it was a really interesting pick. Yeah, I don't know. I have concerns with the defense there.
Starting point is 00:38:39 Now, offensively, yeah, the vertical or horizontal raid, it was not great. They also were never really as pass-heavy. They ended up being way more run-heavy than anyone expected. So I expect them to probably do that. It's going to be a lot of shotgun RPOs with Jayden Daniels, I think, Brian Robinson, Austin Eckler. I think they're going to probably lean a little run-heavy.
Starting point is 00:39:02 It's just not a team that I'm super bullish on because I don't know that they have the bodies defensively to hang either but again like it's a great unknown with with daniels right if he can be rg3 in his first year uh like what we've seen you know before just a running quarterback that can uh you know put a lot of pressure on defensively that ends up elevating the running game just because of the threat of what he can do on the grounds uh could be interesting kind of a mediocre offensive line too so yeah not a team that i have massive expectations for to make a leap but again there's a huge variable with a early pick with a dynamic skill set like jane daniels so kind of a wait and
Starting point is 00:39:40 see for washington for me yeah and i would there's their win total six and a half but they just play some really, really easy teams. And we're talking about opening the season against Tampa Bay, the giants, the Cardinals are in week five. And then they play the Panthers in week nine. I mean,
Starting point is 00:39:55 they could be, you know, best case, like almost 500, you know, probably like, which would not be that surprising for a team that I don't think is that good.
Starting point is 00:40:02 So maybe I'll just be fading them against actual good teams uh because then the floor here is pretty low yeah yeah it's it's a wait and see but uh at the end of the schedule too it could be an in-season uh win total bet too because you know backstretch philly atlanta dallas to finish uh kind of a tough stretch but again you know a rookie quarterback finds his legs probably expect him to play better later in the season than you would early in the season but again it's also the other argument is you got tape on him too so it's a little bit different in terms of what to expect and what this offense is going to look like right those are your head coaching uh changes we've touched on some of the coordinator changes uh but there are some others that we didn't uh for the
Starting point is 00:40:40 most part like you know like you know dan pitcher is the new offensive coordinator uh in cincinnati but he again zach taylor's still calling plays so like just like we didn't know much about brian callahan in terms of his impact last year previous years pitcher will be the same there ken dorsey uh similar situation dorsey uh going to be calling or offensive coordinator in cleveland still going to be stefans calling plays. There has been some discussion in the media that like Dorsey's fingerprints around this offense and more so than what we saw with Van Peltz. Do you have any thoughts on Dorsey and the changes that you're obviously let go after some time in Buffalo,
Starting point is 00:41:16 but now the same job offensive coordinator, former Brown quarterback, now offensive coordinator for the Browns. Yeah. I mean, I thought Dorsey was a better offensive coordinator than Joe Brady was. And I think both those are interesting because Joe Brady was like the interim offensive coordinator. I started digging into the splits this morning a little bit here. And if we look at the difference between the two, so Ken Dorsey is offensive
Starting point is 00:41:37 coordinator last year, weeks one through 10 for the bills, 63% neutral pass rate, 3.1% pass rate over expectation, 260 yards per game. Joe Brady is offensive coordinator, 57% neutral pass rate, negative 2.3% pass rate of expectation and 232 passing yards per game. They ran Josh Allen a ton. So if we want to look at, you know, Buffalo and kind of what that is going to happen there, I think you had nine, you know, rushing attempts per game in total. And then design runs, I mean, 52 design runs in nine games is pretty hefty as well.
Starting point is 00:42:08 So that's, I thought, interesting. But whether or not they're going to continue that in Buffalo specifically with the rushing attempts there, because basically they were playing for their playoff lives like the entire second half of the season. I don't know the answer to that. So I think that Joe Brady is probably going to be significantly more run heavy than Ken Dorsey. But how does Ken Dorsey impact Cleveland? Because are they going to come in and sling the ball 63% of the time? Because it'd be certainly interesting. It'd be a lot different than what we've seen before. And I don't know if Deshaun Watson's capable at this point, to be
Starting point is 00:42:39 honest, because we haven't seen anything from him since 2017. I mean, you know, it's like it's been a while. Yeah. Yeah, I don't know what to make of it either, especially when these changes like this where the head coach is still so prominently involved and, like, he's still game planning and calling. Like, I feel like it's still – we probably just don't have access in season week to week to understand the impact of what a coach in this spot can do because it's it's still uh the head coach has got his imprints on it so much um Shane Waldron your
Starting point is 00:43:11 new offensive coordinator for the Chicago Bears Waldron um in terms of like tree is the Mike Shanahan Sean McVay uh you know Pete Carroll uh So a lot going on there in terms of like what to expect. Worked with Dave Canales in Seattle as well as the offensive coordinator when Canales was the quarterback coach. They were kind of part of that staff that had led Juno Smith and that revival. Interesting to see what can happen there. Obviously, it's hard to not be bullish on the Bears in terms of just personnel,
Starting point is 00:43:43 what they've done this offseason. And again, another scenario where it's just an upgrade over getsy, I would think on paper for Shane Waldron coming in. Yeah. Like the bars is so low. Like, I mean,
Starting point is 00:43:54 just didn't put some kind of system in place. Like you have guys who can separate on their own. So if they're playing man coverage, like doesn't matter. Just like have them run a route that they can separate, you know, make sure that there's progressions that actually make sense and don't all happen at the same time or there aren't guys running into the same routes.
Starting point is 00:44:08 Like, again, the bar is just so, so low that like I think any system that he puts into place is interesting. And then if he actually is good again, like you mentioned, you know, he has a long line of working with pretty strong talent or at least coaching, coaching wise. Like, I don't know. I mean, this, this offense could be awesome. Obviously I'm very bullish on the Bears in general,
Starting point is 00:44:26 but I'm interested in Shane Waldron in a vacuum just like as a coach because I think that he could be like an above average play caller slash coach in general. And then obviously paired with this, it could be a lot of fun. Yeah. You have talent and you have a scenario where like look at the run rate we've had from the Bears the last couple years. A part of that is the quarterback as well,
Starting point is 00:44:47 who's a runner and schemed runner at times. Caleb Williams comes in instantly and is a better pocket passer. So I think you're going to see a spike in pass rate there in Chicago. And obviously when you have Keenan Allen, Roma Dunze, DJ Moore still in tow, like you have to pass more. So, yeah, hard to not be uh bullish on the player specific aspects of what's going to happen in chicago too so uh we touched on lou getzey there we touched on greg roman on van pelt uh clint kubiak is the new offensive coordinator
Starting point is 00:45:15 in new orleans um has only had this job once before had a kind of filling year in minnesota went pretty well um went to Denver because he, you know, Mike Zimmer left and kind of lost his job there too. Working a little bit under Nathaniel Hackett, which that didn't go very well, but that's another scenario where Nathaniel Hackett was the head coach calling the plays. Spent a year last year in San Francisco as the passing game coordinator for Shanahan. That's always a nice spot to to be so New Orleans could go back to a little bit more of a traditional west coast offense and that's something that Kubiak has done before similar to what his dad would do another like Shanahan tree old school Shanahan tree as
Starting point is 00:45:57 well it could be better for Derek Carr because that's the best Derek Carr that we saw back with the Raiders was that you know know, Gruden West coast offense. So any thoughts on Kubiak or the Saints? No, I Saints are a team that I'm struggling to figure out still. I think they might just be a team that I'll a tough handle on in the off season. That's going to see it.
Starting point is 00:46:16 Especially if there's any changes there, because I just, I'm just struggling with what this is going to look like, to be honest, because they have some talent there. I, I just, I don't think they're particularly great, but some people disagree. So I don't know, to be honest because they have some talent they i i just i don't think they're
Starting point is 00:46:25 particularly great but some people disagree so i don't know to be honest it's kind of one of the teams that i don't have a too strong of an opinion on either way yeah i agree they're there because another again the division's so poor that they could just be you know the best of the bunch and not even be very good it could be literally a lot of similarities to what we saw last year where like no one really wanted to win that division they had a super easy schedule uh everyone did and no one really wanted to win and step up so another team that i just don't have a great feel for either kellen moore continues to bounce around he is uh again a couple years ago seemed like a future star future head coach coach when he was coming up with Dallas,
Starting point is 00:47:05 again, former quarterback in the league. Now, one-year stint in L.A. did not work super well. Now he's back to the Eagles. Be interesting to see what happens here. Again, great personnel to see what happens. They obviously made some changes, interesting coaching changes there in Philly and what happened there last year. But, again, I don't know,
Starting point is 00:47:25 is this a spot where he can continue to get more out of this offense? What do you think about Kellen Moore? Yeah. I wanted to buy the dip last year on Kellen Moore because I thought that his time in Dallas was kind of like, I don't know, just it didn't really make sense for them to fire him. And then it kind of shit the bed and chargers. Like I just feel like that didn't go really go all that well.
Starting point is 00:47:43 There was some concerns. I mean, it just, it didn't look good. Things were off. Like it just feel like that didn't go really go all that well. There was some concerns. I mean, it just, it didn't look good. Things were off, like it just didn't pan out. And so I don't know. I mean, I think there's plenty of talent here, but like, I think it's mostly going to be Sirianni, you know, kind of leading the way and then Kellen Moore might have some impact here. But I, I, again, I kind of struggle with that, but I do think Vic Fangio defensive coordinator,
Starting point is 00:48:03 I don't know if you've been paying attention to what the reports are coming out. I mean, these players in Miami hated Vic Fangio. Apparently this guy is a total dick. And beyond that, he just wasn't coaching them. He was just so mad and just saying random shit all the time. Everything that's come out about this from every single one of the team has been like, this has been the worst coaching experience of my life um so i don't know i'm not super optimistic about fangio anymore i mean maybe he just he lost his way somewhere along the way
Starting point is 00:48:33 and it clearly didn't work out last year yeah it's it's interesting to see because there's a ton of talent uh and on the defensive side of the ball if they can figure it out. So, yeah, it's a wait and see. I want to be optimistic because on paper, I think we would have been excited about both Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio over the last couple of years coming in, and both have kind of disappointed. I know we were excited about Fangio going to Miami. It was part of why both of us were bullish on that team last year. They ran into injury bugs early and often that kind of
Starting point is 00:49:06 continued all season and that was tough too so yeah it could be a guy that's just been around for a little bit you know gets into a spot where it's a different atmosphere feels like he's kind of the guy and and hey listen to me i've been around you don't know what you're talking about and just kind of works his way out of it and again it was a mutual parting of ways um they said but yeah it's it's going to be interesting to see there's again they've drafted very well in philly on the defensive side of the ball the last couple years so he has some tools to work with again um being interested to see if he can can maximize this group and what he does with it because there's some interesting decisions to be made in terms of playing time in philadelphia well. Like what do you do at corner?
Starting point is 00:49:47 You got a couple of old guys that you weren't super happy with their performance last year. James Bradbury in particular, Darius Slay as well. And you go out and make some splashes in terms of you adding some cornerbacks in the draft. Like where does Quinion Mitchell fit in the pecking order? Is a starting spot up for grabs? cooper to gene in the mix as well or is he kind of kind of buried there as well you have a slot corner uh with avante maddox who you re-sign like there's some playing time issues that i'm kind of you know just from a defensive side interested to see how that kind of plays out so not an aggressive system typically uh with what
Starting point is 00:50:20 they do you know he wants to generate a lot of pass rush from you know organically from the front uh and kind of hang back in uh in too deep and stuff like that so yeah i mentioned to see what happens there but yeah we want to see if there's any um you know player stuff to see if this kind of lingers over from miami as well uh arthur smith speaking of uh you know polarizing coaches uh pittsburgh now is the offensive coordinator. Again, we kind of liked Arthur Smith when he was an offensive coordinator in Tennessee as the offensive mind and play caller and head coach in Atlanta. It was not great, but I think we can also just look at what his background is and what Pittsburgh has done personnel-wise.
Starting point is 00:51:01 It seems like a team that is going to want to run the football. A lot of Najee Harris a lot of Jay Jay Warren and it's a nice offensive line uh you kind of filling in some some spots here with the draft uh what are your thoughts on Pittsburgh and Artie Smith yeah it's funny because the the bottom two teams last year in pass rate of expectation in neutral game scripts um you know we're literally just Atlanta and Pittsburgh. So it's like, you know, Atlanta, obviously that's where Arthur Smith came from. And they were like negative 8% pass order of expectation. Now we're in Pittsburgh here. Um, which there was like negative 6%. So
Starting point is 00:51:36 like they were already super run heavy. Um, I mean, they're probably going to just stay that way. They're going to run the ball a ton. It's going to look, I think a lot like what we saw kind of in Seattle from Russ, like early in his career where it was like run, run, you know, moonshot ball to the corner to the George Pickens. Like that's, it's just going to be that like basically the entire season. And if their defense can hold up, like I think they'll be fine. And so I don't really hate this from a perspective of like, I thought their last offensive coordinator was like a bad, like a legit bad offensive coordinator. I think Arthur Smith was a bad head coach, but could be fine in this, in this scenario where he's like a very natural fit, I think with what Mike Tomlin wants. And like, if you can add a little bit of good scheming on top of that, uh, they're putting themselves in a really good spot here. Now what happens
Starting point is 00:52:22 to wide receiver two? Is it Roman Wilson? Is it one of the other 10 guys that they have on there? No idea, but I just don't think they're going to pass enough that it really even matters, to be honest. So I think we're going to see a ton of run-out. I mean, in the neutral game scripts, if they're winning, God forbid, I mean, they're just going to run the ball so, so much. So much. Yeah, I mean, look, he won't be the first or the last guy that just doesn't.
Starting point is 00:52:46 The problem is when these guys get hired again as a head coach, who's just a great coordinator or is a good coordinator and fine and can keep a job and make an offense successful, who just can't actually be the head coach. And it's a different role. Like a CEO of a team, like there are plenty of jobs, depending on what you do in life that like like you're fantastic at what you do and people think you need to get more
Starting point is 00:53:12 responsibilities all of a sudden it's like oh no he's like way out over his skis he should not be in this role whatsoever you put him back to where he like can can succeed with like limitations and might put himself in a spot where he could do it again. So the problem becomes if Arthur Smith's good at his job, if some front office decides, well, let's go get Arthur Smith and give him – it's a Dan Quinn effect, right? Like should we give Dan Quinn another head coaching job? Should we go back to the well? Dave Wanstead always jumps in like, Wani was a great coordinator.
Starting point is 00:53:43 Does that mean he should get another head coaching job? It didn't seem to work uh so why do you continue to go back to it so yeah interesting to see if uh Smith can just stay in his lane run the football that's the roster you have it's what you want to do um young offensive lines they can gel and find some like you said neutral game scripts figure it out and keep themselves competitive. Cause I have some questions on the defensive side there as well. So yeah. Interesting to watch. I also love, love Duncan Archer Smith.
Starting point is 00:54:13 So I hope he kind of fails and it's just so fun. Like, you know, you know, nepotism daddy thing with like his dad, like, you know, with the FedEx and,
Starting point is 00:54:19 you know, like gambling the company away, potentially winning it back and have this whole success story. And now he's just been, you know, getting jobs for that beginning. And I think he this whole success story. And now he's just been, you know, getting jobs for that beginning. And I think he's learned a lot. So now he's like a real,
Starting point is 00:54:29 you know, it's not all that, but I don't know. It's just kind of fun to dunk on him either way. The mustache is terrible too. And he also just like, he leaned into being a dick and it was not, it seemed not necessary.
Starting point is 00:54:41 I don't know. You can just, yeah. Could have done it differently. Yeah. What else do we have done it differently. Yeah. What else do we have? Liam Cohen. This guy is poor family.
Starting point is 00:54:49 I don't know what's going on with the Cohen family. This guy every year just jumps to a new spot. He was in Kentucky, and then he goes to be the offensive coordinator for Sean McVay for a year, and then goes back to Kentucky, and now he is the Bucks new offensive coordinator. So yeah, he's again, part of the McVay Shanahan tree. Be interested to see what happens again. Like there are a lot of injuries with this one time with the Rams.
Starting point is 00:55:17 So it's really hard to make a lot of like calls and what we'd expect with, you know, what's going to go on there again with all that happened. A lot of quarterback injuries and just kind of a mess offensively so Cohen um you know back in Tampa Bay any thoughts on what he can do with uh with them in that offense yeah kind of another scenario where like I don't really know what to do with Cohen um I think it's a downgrade from Canales again I think we both thought that the offense over overperformed I'm still not sold on Baker Mayfield being anything more than just like a league average quarterback.
Starting point is 00:55:46 I think he's actually still below a league average quarterback, to be honest. So I'm interested to see what that looks like with Cohen in here instead of Canales. Nick holes, the offensive coordinator in Tennessee, but again, it'll be Brian Callahan as the offensive play caller.
Starting point is 00:56:00 We touched on Kingsbury there as well. Defensive coordinators just to wrap us up and take us home. We touched on Jimmy Lake with the Falcons, but again, it's going to be Ricky Morris calling the plays. Zach Orr is your new defensive coordinator in Baltimore. An internal promotion. Orr has been the linebacker coach and has been on the staff for a while, so there's some continuity there.
Starting point is 00:56:21 Again, they've lost some guys in free agency, so there are some, I think think interesting questions in terms of personnel is what did or learn? How much is Harbaugh's hand in this defensively? Do you have any thoughts on, or on the Ravens? Honestly, not a ton to be honest. I think that you probably have the best gauge on most of these guys in terms of like, you know of their actual impact. I would say the only defensive coordinators that I thought were unique here would be in Seattle with, I guess, Mike McDonald being in Seattle, leaving Baltimore.
Starting point is 00:56:56 So I thought that was kind of notable here with Orr. We don't really know what his impact will be. Mike Zimmer in Dallas, I thought could be an interesting addition there, given what we've seen. And then Jeff Halfley in green Bay kind of changing up green base scheme. Like those are the ones that jumped out to me specifically. And then obviously the Fangio stuff we already kind of talked about there. I don't know if anything else stood out to you there,
Starting point is 00:57:18 because again, I know you're a little bit more on the pulse here. Hands are deep in the, in the dirt for the defensive side of the ball. So my elbows deep now, man, it's, it's,'s we're deep uh yeah i think those are some of the bigger ones the zimmer ones is in dallas is is impactful like scheme wise it's a massive change from what they were doing uh under quinn i think you're going to go from seeing you know um way more man heavy um in blitz heavy with what uh what Quinn did versus what I think we
Starting point is 00:57:46 could see from, from Zimmer. It'll be a league, a little bit more multiple with what they do three, four, four, three, depending on how they want to use Michael Parsons.
Starting point is 00:57:56 But yeah, I think it's going to be an interesting, impactful transition with, with Zimmer a little bit more traditional. I think they've done some decent job with some of the free agent additions that they have there too uh halfley in green bay another i think noticeable one in terms of um what they did being uh coming over from boston college uh some time at ohio state the last handful of years too again the good personnel group um
Starting point is 00:58:23 you know joe berry has been a guy that seemed like not a talent maximizer. Finally relieved of his duties. He's been there for a very long time. I'm interested to see if just some fresh blood, if they could stay healthy, what Halfley can do there defensively because there's some talent there. It's hard. Another reason to be optimistic on Green Bay.
Starting point is 00:58:43 Again, if new voice, new scheme, they're going to run a lot of like single high. I think you're going to see here. So you're going to have more safety in the box. Allow them to be a little bit more man coverage on the outside. If they're healthy, they can allow they have the parts to do that. Jair Alexander can allow you to do that if you can stay on the field. So yeah, I think you're going to see a little bit more of a less predictable layer for defensive outputs from Green Bay versus some of what Joe Barry was pretty boring and doing. Ryan Nielsen is on the move again. He's the Jacksonville coordinator now. He was with Atlanta last year and been with New Orleans previously. When he was with New Orleans, they ran more man coverage than almost anyone in the league.
Starting point is 00:59:29 Atlanta ran a ton of man coverage last year. Expect more man coverage for Jacksonville this year in terms of how that plays out. We'll wait and see. They've lost some talent there as well. That's been pretty impactful. But some of the other ones are kind of wait and see, like what to make of Chris Shula with the Rams.
Starting point is 00:59:45 I don't know. If we think that Raheem Morris was a massive talent maximizer, we take Raheem Morris out of the equation. We take Aaron Donald out of the equation. And they were talking about, you want to talk about an Epo baby, like Chris Shula coming from the Shula family. Like,
Starting point is 01:00:04 you know, he's the grandson of don shula now again he's been in the league for a long time because of that was under wade phillips and raheem morris so we just don't know but then again the bottom could drop out here because uh you i want to give a lot of credit to raheem morris what he did last year in this talent wise it's again you take out arguably one of the best defenders of our lifetime. It's hard not to think that this team is worse defensively. So Shula is one that, uh, do you have any thoughts on, I mean, you know, I know you probably like the Nepo babies. No, but I mean, if you're giving me a new target here to focus in on that, I'm in on that because,
Starting point is 01:00:39 um, yeah, yeah. I mean, that's, this seems like a perfect guy to kind of rip into because he's going to have no talent, very little talent around him and we don't know if he's a talent maximizer. So it'll certainly be interesting. Yeah. He's been on staff in LA since 17. So he's been there for a minute, but like you're in charge now,
Starting point is 01:00:57 but that looks a little, a little bit different. Yeah. I see some of the other ones to buzz through Anthony Weaver in Miami. Be interested to see what happens there again. Maybe that's just, you know, less is more. He comes in and he was replacing Fangio and everyone were getting all these Fangio reports. Sometimes you're just, you're not Fangio.
Starting point is 01:01:16 Uh, and the team obviously responds to what happens there. Now, you know, they lost Christian Wilkins. Uh, that's going to be a tough loss for them. So, uh, less optimistic than we were going the last year in Miami. Demarcus Covington in New England. But again, that's definitely going to be a Mayo thing. Shane Bowen comes over. He's been the last couple of years in Tennessee.
Starting point is 01:01:37 He is now taking over for the Giants. Again, you would think there's going to be a schematic change because Wink Martindale loved to just blitz blitz blitz they didn't have a lot of talent there bowen's going to have a couple of edge rushers that can generate talent and win on their own with the brian burns trade obviously having uh you know debito still in tow what they could do there now a back end of this defense is rough and i think that's part of why martindale wanted to scheme so blitz heavy. Cause you needed to kind of hide that personnel in the backend, not super optimistic with,
Starting point is 01:02:09 with the giants there. So any thoughts on, on that one? Yeah. The difference from Martindale to Bowen is pretty interesting there. Cause I mean, you just can't blitz as much as like, it's like him and the Vikings offensive coordinator basically are like just
Starting point is 01:02:22 notorious for blitzing their face off. It was like 40, 50% blitz rate, some games, uh, which is insane. Uh, so yeah,
Starting point is 01:02:30 I think that that looking different could be interesting. I mean, I don't know. I think this giants team is going to look different in general. And it's, it's pretty crazy that they went from Brian David winning coach of the year, one year to then him almost fired on the hot seat that year after, just because everyone
Starting point is 01:02:45 got injured and his team sucks like they just greatly outperformed year one um so i again not optimistic in terms of how they're doing but like i think they're going to win some games that they shouldn't uh and i wouldn't be surprised a little bit more talent that's a good point when there's so much turnover for a team it's really hard to be like what do we make of this because it's going to look so different on both sides of the ball. So in terms of just buzzing through the others that are going to be not under defensive minded head coaches, Nick Sorenson in San Francisco taking over Steve Wilkes didn't seem to go very well.
Starting point is 01:03:15 He got chopped there. Sorenson has been with Pete Carroll under that staff and with San Francisco for the last couple of years, it got promoted from within. So there could be some continuity there, but again, first year kind of calling the shots being to see obviously a ton of talent in San Francisco that helps quite a bit.
Starting point is 01:03:31 Denard Wilson in Tennessee, been a defensive backs coach for a while, been in the league for a long time too. Again, coming with an offensive coach, he's going to have a little bit of leeway to have some control here we just don't have much of a understanding of of what to expect here uh a group that's a little bit better that you know they went out and spent some money in the back half to
Starting point is 01:03:55 in the secondary that unit should be better i don't know what to make of of denard wilson um again just health in tennessee has been a massive problem so definitely what i'm watching because i don't really know what to expect from his personnel group, what he's going to do. That's kind of it, Joe Witt in Washington. But, again, that's a Dan Quinn defense. So, yeah. Any other last takeaways before we wrap?
Starting point is 01:04:17 No, I don't know why we thought we could do the entire league in 30 minutes. I had to go to the offensive coordinator and defense. That was a mistake. But, you know, I Appreciate everyone hanging out here who's been here for an hour and are listening on the podcast here. I think there's some good takeaways and insights. Just a little bit more
Starting point is 01:04:34 coaching changes than I think we thought. Yeah. We get talking balls and lose time. What are you going to do? I appreciate it. Again, if you're hanging out, we appreciate you very much. Subscribe, rate, review. Let us know in the chat what your favorite impactful coaching change is. Anything that you think is going to be impactful in the current betting markets, in the future market, anything like that.
Starting point is 01:04:53 Again, available on podcast for you as well. Connor and I will be back next week to talk about something. NFL never stops, baby. So I appreciate you hanging out with us. For Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody.

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