Move The Line - How to WIN Your March Madness Bracket Pools!

Episode Date: March 18, 2024

Dive deep into the excitement of March Madness 2024! Join us as we analyze every matchup, break down the bracket, and make bold predictions on who will emerge victorious in the ultimate college basketball showdown. From Cinderella stories to perennial powerhouses, we'll dissect the key factors, stats, and strategies shaping each game. Don't miss out on the thrill of bracketology – subscribe now and stay ahead of the game!Win your bracket pool with the tools and picks from Pool Genius/Team Rankings! Get an exclusive discount up to 55% off a Team Rankings subscription!" With this link: https://teamrankings.com/4for4-discount/?trk=af_4for4_mm24_artconnorSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  / movethelinenfl  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  / connorallennfl  Follow Jason on Twitter 👉🏼  / JasonLisk  Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea

Selection Sunday is behind us, which means it is time to fill out your March Madness brackets. I'm Connor Allen hosting a special episode of Move the Line. Joining me today is Jason Lisk from our friends over at Team Rankings and Pool Genius. Jason, how did the conference tournaments treat you and Selection Sunday? Conference tournaments were wild. It's been a long weekend because, man, those things went off the rails sometime on Friday and didn't really ever get back on.

So many crazy things. How many top seeds lost? teams making runs to championships At two completely Altering the field we thought it would look a certain way and the seed lines are completely different than they looked a week ago Yeah, it was pretty nuts. I think one of the biggest prizes to me was maybe NC State winning the tournament there. I thought, I mean, were they double digit, I think, underdogs to Duke in the first round? Was that what it sounded about, right? Absolutely. And then, I mean, still against North Carolina, I had to beat them in the final, even after they pulled what happened against Virginia. So

craziness. Yeah, absolute madness. but before we hop into today's show we're going to break down a couple teams were higher than consensus on a couple teams were lower than consensus on maybe some cinderella teams i want to let you all know today's show sponsored by team rankings their tools and analysis will help you dominate your march madness pools they allow you to plug in your own custom settings for whatever pools you have for how big of a tournament pool if it it's 10 people, 20 people, 100 people, that changes your strategy dramatically and they help take care of that all for you. Their brackets win over 200% more than expected since 2017.

So find the link in the show notes, get up to 55% off of their incredible tools and picks and so much more. So I want to start off here, basic bracket strategy. We're talking to people who are trying to win their bracket pool, but maybe not, you know, haven't done that well in the last couple of years. So any thoughts here, just off the top, like your favorite basic tips for filling out a bracket? Yeah, for this year, just know, know how many people you got to beat and like what, what

you need to do to get the money and use that as a guide on how risky. Think of it this way. If I'm, let's say there's 30 people and three spots pay out. So my chances are 10% going in. Do I really want to get that much riskier with like how much where my champ pick is or where a team to the final game is?

If I don't think they have at least a 10% chance of getting there, am I giving up edge by just picking? So don't get too crazy if you're in a pool where your chances of hitting a payout are low or higher relatively, because there's not that many people or the payout spots are more flat. Obviously you get into bigger pools,

you gotta think more like, where am I finding the value that nobody else is picking? Yeah, no, that's a great point there. it's it's something that i can't stress enough because if you're in your pool with just 10 people or family friends and family you don't really have to be all that creative like you can just pick a lot of the the standard teams because not everyone knows who the standard teams are especially like everyone just sees the one c2c3 c4 seed i mean auburn is a four seed this year. And like UConn last year, like they were number five or I think four

in Ken Palm's overall metrics and like a lot of other advanced statistics. And they're a four seed like in the total thing. So again, like just understanding and using tools and metrics to help you understand that better, I think is really important. So I like that strategy a lot.

One of my basic ones, I'm gonna always pick the one seeds over the 16 seeds. I know that Purdue just lost last year. I know that Virginia just lost a couple of years prior. I'm not willing to say that that's a trend. I think those were kind of just rare circumstances, especially this year. I like a lot of the one seeds early on. So I'm going to keep picking them.

I mean, we're looking at now, I believe, 150 and two overall one seeds are over 16 seeds. So I'm going to stick to the math on that one and two overall one seeds are over 16 seats so uh gonna stick to the math on that one and pick the one seeds I have a feeling people are going to probably pick a couple of one seeds to lose maybe at a higher rate this year have you noticed that on your end well you know what it is crazy because like if we were in like an NFL pool um you would have like a team that was like let's say a double digit favorite that had like 85, 90%, they'd be like 98% pick. That's about the pick rate we're seeing on the one seeds, which is crazy because their odds are like at least that.

So you're not giving up that much value by actually picking one seeds right out of the bat, because I think it's like ingrained in people's minds to pick more upsets in March madness. And so they're willing to do things like take a 2% shot when they don't in other contests. It is kind of crazy. Like, I don't think you need to get that crazy. Yeah. And one of my favorite ways to pick, you know, quote unquote upsets is by looking at betting spreads to make picks to choose upsets because you'll have every year, I mean, every

year there'll be a 5-12 matchup or, you know, something like that uh or 11-6 specifically where the 11 seed is actually favored in the betting markets over one of the lower seeds and so people you're playing with brackets with don't always know that and so they they may miss that but where in reality like those teams win at a pretty high rate like outright and so i like i personally would go with a team like that and that's i think there are one or two examples this year even where some of the lower seeds are favored. Any thoughts on that strategy? Well, yeah, absolutely. I mean, so New Mexico is favored over Clemson right now.

New Mexico coming off of winning the Mountain West tournament was already fairly highly rated in a lot of the advanced metrics. Went up even more inside, I think, the top 25 in a lot. And Clemson kind of had a bad performance in ACC. So they're favored. We haven't had many of these cases of outright favorites. We've had plenty of like close to pick-ems, teams that are one-point dogs. There's been, I think, 11 cases since 2011 where a team was favored who was like an 11 seed

or worse right out of the gate they're 10 and 1 now does that mean it's going to happen this time no but i think what you get uh connor in these cases is you get some public resistance to making an 11 seed the favorite and so if they're made the favorite there's usually a really good reason why and there's people pulling that number to where it is and we've seen that with Gonzaga the last one we saw was Michigan two years ago against Colorado State in the first round and Michigan not only won that game but went to the sweet 16 if you recall as an 11 seat and so I think New Mexico has that potential I mean they're they're a top 30 type team who for some reason got seated as 11. yeah way under seated there we're looking at them as like a one and a half to two point favorite depending on the book um i think that's

a that's a great shout out there specifically uh any other points of strategy you want to touch on before we go into more specific teams uh no i think i think we've we've hit i mean there's plenty we could we could talk forever about strategy. But I think the main ones are just know your rules. You're going to adapt your upset tendencies if you get rewarded for it. Don't pick upsets just to pick them in a bracket. If you're convinced a team's going to win, there are other avenues to make money than losing points in a bracket by taking extreme risks. But if you're getting

bonus points that's when some of these upset plays becoming more pregnant i'm not convinced this year by the way you have to make a ton of upset picks there's so many 50 50 calls where i know we have liens on one side but the public's either opposite us or split that you're getting enough differentiation without getting too crazy yeah i think that's probably one of my favorite parts about your guys' tool is that, you know, you guys are able to cite data from Yahoo, ESPN, you know, all the different bracket sites and be like, hey, like pools are picking this,

like this is where people are picking in pools so they can help, you guys help make like just an educated decision on like, are you really gaining that much by not picking this team? Like, what does that look like? Because that's all the, at the end of the day, that's all that matters. If everyone picks Purdue to win in your pool,

you shouldn't be picking Purdue because if you win, then you're just chopping the pool. So, you know, like something like, those things like don't really make sense and you should be finding ways to gain leverage elsewhere. So I would say that's maybe my last point of strategy. If you're playing in a pool with a bunch of homers or college friends who all went to the same college,

you can almost always gain an advantage by not picking said college or local area. Absolutely. Yeah. So that's another fun tip there. But I'd love to dive into like maybe one or two teams that you are higher than consensus on or just, you know, worst case, you think we'll make a run in the tournament or excited to have in your brackets this year. Yeah. I mean, there's so many, cause I think there's some value out there. I, we've mentioned New Mexico. Obviously it depends on what type of pool you're in as to whether, how far you take it makes sense. But I mean, the bigger the pool,

the more new pick like New Mexico makes sense. That West region in general, I like Arizona as a value because the public is heavily on north carolina compared to the betting markets betting markets have arizona as the slight favorite or carolina carolina is being picked like two to one over arizona oh wow that region or maybe not but as a champ their champ pick percentage is much higher more people are confident in north carolina and so you're getting value in the rest of that west that that to me looks like the region where if you were to like say jason which region is going to go absolutely crazy i could see any number of teams coming out of the west i mean like michigan would it surprise you if michigan state uh suddenly pulls that that nine one upset

and and makes a run to the Final Four if North Carolina's out of that region? Not at all. New Mexico with a Baylor team that isn't great defensively as the three seed. Alabama, who's not great defensively as the four in that region. All sorts of variants in that region. Yeah, one thing that I like to do before the tournament specifically is look at some

of the trends of like past winners and look at the profiles of which teams normally fail early and which teams normally uh succeed the best teams almost always have balance they have good offense good defense specifically you know top 21 adjusted offense top 37 adjusted defense it's these teams that are outside those metrics but specifically like outliers so like i think a great example is kentucky awesome offense like electric but their defense is so so bad we're talking about fifth and adjusted offense 108th and adjusted defense um like they're a team that is constantly a threat to lose early and it's because and and my way of putting this into like actual uh like you know game analysis is that a team with a good offense and terrible defense, they run into a team that just shoots lights out.

If their offense falters at all, they're toast because they can't play good defense. And vice versa, if their offense is not very good and their defense is electric, if the opposing team is just shooting very well and their offense isn't able to keep up like that's how these you know blue blood teams and good teams perceived lose to these like you know unknown 11 10 12 13 seats so um yeah so I don't know I think that's one of my you know kind of favorite early exercises there and that you know led me to Arizona is a team that qualifies um specifically under those circumstances and uh UNC is not now they're close I mean they're like 24th in offense uh and uh sixth in defense so I don't think that they specifically are like out crazy like they can't win but they're I mean there's some holes in their profile though that makes sense it does and not only that like they're sixth in defense and so you're like okay they're

really good defense they've actually had some meltdowns recently though that number's gone down and it's still a really good number but man nc state ran like scored on them a lot and so did a couple other teams down the stretch they've had a couple of head scratching performances where you're like man is that defense going to hold up over four or five games even though they look good on paper um you'll be surprised to know Kentucky is popular relative to their seed I know you mentioned Kentucky already there of course they're an interesting evaluation because they did get better they had injuries they've had a lot of injuries so you're like okay they might be better than what they've shown but then again the defensive numbers have been consistently not great it's just they've been even better on offense when they have

everybody and those kind of teams haven't always profiled well they're good for pulling some upsets have been consistently not great. It's just they've been even better on offense when they have everybody. And those kind of teams haven't always profiled well. They're good for pulling some upsets. They're not necessarily great in the favorite role or in a neutral role for the reasons you said. If you get a team that can play slow against them, but grind out and convert possessions continuously, that puts pressure on the favorite all the time. And we see that year

after year, Ohio State losing to Oral Roberts. We saw it with Iowa recently out of the Big Ten with the teams that could score but couldn't stop a cold. And we're seeing that, I think, concerns with Kentucky, Alabama, and some others. Yeah, I wonder, you know, if you're looking at a bracket here, so they obviously play Oakland in the first round admittedly i think that they probably throttle oakland uh i'm not a big big oakland person but the next round texas tech nc state i mean that's just checking grind you right uh it it's i'm i'm probably gonna have a bracket or two where i probably pick texas tech over over kentucky um just because even if they do wind up getting to maybe like a Marquette or a Florida in the round after like again like it's just winning these games consistently for me is really

tough and I mean if they got to Houston like you know maybe the stylistic difference could pan out for them but like you said the the slow grinded out teams that and Houston can score too mostly I mean outside of their blunder in the conference tournament I mean they're a top 15 scoring team in terms of offensive efficiency so it it's a tough debate there, but I do think that Kentucky could be an interesting team to fade there specifically. Another one that I guess we're talking about both fades and higher and lower than consensus at this point, a team that I am worried about is Iowa State. You know, Iowa State, their offense is just not very good. Their defense is like elite. You know, we're talking about

number one in adjusted defense by a pretty, you know, solid margin here, very similar to Houston. Offense, 55th in adjusted offense. I mean, they just go on random scoring droughts. Again, it's like they can beat anyone. I mean, they are capable of beating anyone if they're hitting their shots. But I worry on a consistent basis over the course of a six game sample can they play good enough offense and not run into one random team that's hitting every single shot uh for them to win any thoughts on Iowa State here yeah I think the the bigger thing with Iowa State is the draw I mean yes their defense can. Their offense can be a slog at times. It's been a little better, I think, when they've had their full rotation. We've seen a mix here.

I mean, Texas Tech went to the championship game as a three seed with a very similar profile. Just absolutely destroyed people on defense, frustrated good offenses all through the bracket, and we're surprised. But then we've seen teams like Tennessee have a similar profile and flame out or that was the absolute beast on defense, but just you never knew when it would go in the tank on offense. And so probably a high variance.

And then you just, it's just a region with Auburn and Connecticut in it. And so, man, who knows? If I were, you know, I would have liked to see maybe them in a different region to think about them. Man, that's exactly where I'm at with this, the Auburn-Connecticut stuff. Because if you put them in as the fourth seed over Kansas and Purdue, I think maybe they're alive there. Obviously, with them, North Carolina, I think, you know, I would have had probably Auburn advancing in that west side or at least the Elite Eight for sure. Now they have to draw

Kentucky in the sweet 16 or I'm sorry Connecticut in the sweet 16 absolutely brutal draw for Auburn a team that fits both of the qualifications I talked about top 10 in both offense and defense number I believe Ken Bob's number four team overall in the entire country and they're a four seed so I mean i mean obviously the big barrier is connecticut can they beat connecticut yeah i don't know i mean that's they seem unbelievably dominant uh for almost the entire year they've lost connecticut's lost three games all season all three of them are were away um i mean two of them with with key players out so really at full strength that's why they're the betting market favorite because they've been even

better when they're at full strength. Yeah. Here's the, here's the interesting one there. If you are of the type that likes to play multiple brackets and portfolios and kind of, you might like, it's an interesting, because if I told you right now, Connor, I'm going to give you a crystal ball and Auburn's in the Elite Eight, would they be the favorite to win the national title? They'd be close, right?

Because as you know, they probably beat UConn. And so then you're like, how do I want to play it? So there's a lot of high variability there, but in larger brackets, having a UConn champ and then an alternate or vice versa Auburn champ where you're like, obviously both of them can't do well, but I'm kind of ensured where one of them makes a run might be a good way to play things. No, I love that idea. And I think that that's like, again, in smaller pools, you're probably putting Yukon, but I mean, 50, a hundred people, like you got to start getting a little bit,

a little bit weird with some of this stuff, especially if you're playing multiple pools, like one pool, you can again, mostly stick to the chalk. But I think that that's a great look there and i'll probably have auburn at least one depending on how many pools i wind up with but yeah the draw the draw definitely stinks um i guess to round out this top group of people that i think are teams that are interesting here uh we talked about auburn houston connecticut i think produce kind of interesting so their defense got worse but their offense is significantly better than last year in terms of their guard play. And that was what just like absolutely killed them in the year prior because it was all in Zach Eadie. Now we have Braden Smith

able to, you know, kind of make some shots who help contribute along with the Eadie. I think they're balanced enough to potentially make a run. Everyone, I think there's probably going to be some recency bias with they just lost in the conference tournament. They lost last year as a one seed. I wouldn't be surprised to go underpicked, but you have the data behind that. Is that where you guys are at? Are you guys in the opposite boat here? I mean, they're solid. They're not like supremely underpicked. Okay. And by that, I mean, I think there are enough people willing to take them because all it takes is the top 10 or 20 percent of what people think about a team not the median i mean yeah 50 of the people may hate them and that doesn't matter that much

and so i think there are enough people picking them that they're at they're an okay value they're not they're not like insane value i think we talked about the west where north carolina is more popular that's creating that for Arizona in some ways. With Purdue, my main concern, yes, the guard play has been better. They are 4-4 when their turnover rate is over 20%. And that was their bugaboo last year, and that's what we saw jump up and get them again. When teams can turn those guards over and put pressure on them, and my question is will they come up against teams later in the bracket?

I don't think they're going to falter like they did last year early, but will they come up against a team that can actually do that to them? Play enough against Edie to, if not neutralize him, at least kind of negate him dominating the game and then turn them over would be the question late in the bracket. Yeah. I think teams like, I mean, even Tennessee or Houston would give them a lot of trouble, you know, like that would be tough. But again, that's that's an elite eight final four, two matchups there. So again, like I think the early rounds, I mean, I don't know, maybe, you know, TCU, never know. But Kansas, I'm not really sure what to do with given their injuries and, you know, lack of clarity with Hunter Dickinson and McCuller.

Like, I mean, it seems like they're going to play, right? Like, I think both of them, I'm operating under the, but are they going to be 100%? Are they going to be, you know, how does that factor in, right? Yeah. I mean, the Danny Gavittitt the selection chair said the word he had was they were playing but what does that mean so i believe they'll take the court i believe they'll take the court but how healthy is dickinson's shoulder they're thin man if if he takes another hit i mean they're thin going against the sanford team right out of the gate that'll press you

all came long and run you um yeah so it is a very they're a high variable team uh kansas's and then you know gonzaga i believe is the five with them and gonzaga's played better so um that is an interesting region but yeah um kansas is a very questionable one on that side of the bracket i think that's a pretty solid segue then into some of the cinderella teams because i mean again if if those guys for cam kansas are not like 100 or if they suffer an in-game injury which are all very realistic possibilities this 13 seed samford i know got some love in the betting markets are you you're interested in them like are you going to be picking them potentially in some brackets depending on how

many you're doing over kansas i don't think it's a bad play. Yeah. In brackets for me, probably not. And that's just the way I play it. But that's, that's because again, in most pools, the champs were 32 that picks worth one. I mean, is it worth it for me? In betting markets different. Yes. I like Sanford with the points and for the variability reasons we just talked about with the injuries. You don't know that that game's at altitude with a team that's deep and likes to press um which you know who knows how that'll work out for this game um so yeah uh but am i willing to you know play it for a single point when i'm still taking the

dog and i don't know how much value i'm getting for one point probably not yeah no that's totally fair uh Any other teams that are we're talking like maybe 10 seed or later that you're really interested in here to maybe win, you know, one or two games, even if you're not necessarily picking them in your bracket, they're, you know, in bigger pools or the Cinderella's of this year, basically. Yeah. So I'm going to give you one because of interesting bracket dynamics. I think the public tends to underpick play in teams, just in general. It's hard to pick the team when you don't know who's playing

as you're looking at your bracket on Tuesday. We have a pretty significant, when I say significant, like four, four and a half point edge for Colorado over Boise State. Like Colorado is a legit like top 25 team who just didn't play in a conference that gave them the opportunities to get all the wins to get seated higher and uh or legit team when fully healthy now they still got to beat boise and that game isn't until late wednesday so you won't know if they actually won until like wednesday night but they're being virtually unpicked to the final four and they're

a 10 seed that has, I think, a lot of commonalities with some 10s and 11s that have made runs where they're probably like a massive value in a bracket at the large size to make a run where you might be the only one that has them. Yeah, no, that's a great call out. Colorado, 25th in adjusted offense, 42nd in defense. So they got kind of that balance. I mean, again, outside our normal trends, but at the same time, they're're close. Like it's not like, you know, that's not the end all

be all. If they're close enough, they have some balance. They're not like outrageously bad in one way or another. And they get a good draw. Interestingly enough against Boise, like you said, Boise is a pretty good team here. I think the market's about even right now on them. So I don't know. But Florida is a really unique matchup in the round after because Florida has done a lot of stuff. Great. They've beaten a couple of good teams, but they've also dropped a couple that have not been good either. So Florida is a very unique matchup for them. They're another one of those kind of SEC's got a lot of them to show those offensively skewed teams a bit where their offensive efficiency is way higher than their defensive numbers.

And they just lost a handglot in their Center to that broken leg unfortunately in the SEC Championship game I think they have the depth to overcome that but they still lost like a seven footer who plays 20 minutes a game and so uh there that creates more uncertainty that could open up a run as well you never know how those situations go when you have to turn around and play on like a within a five days of that injury happening. Yeah, no, it's not very easy. A team that I'm kind of interested in that's an 11 seed here and it's not, you know, I guess that much of a Cinderella,

if you're paying attention to the betting markets, I like Oregon. I think Oregon over South Carolina is kind of interesting. You know, I think if they win this initial game, they're playing a Creighton team that is kind of like a late bloomer. Ken Barkley did some great work uh that you know basically talks about teams who come on later and make like massive jumps in the last month or two of the season tend to greatly underperform early in early on in the tournament that being said Creighton matches you know both offense and defensive thresholds to win the national title but they also I think you know there's some holes

with this Creighton team so for me I think Oregon I bet I bet Oregon to be South Carolina we'll talk about that more in tomorrow's episode with the betting stuff but I think Oregon is an interesting one to maybe win that game and uh the game against Creighton there um any thoughts on this Oregon team Oregon is like um what's that 17 years cicada like every six or seven years oregon is supposed to be out of the tournament dana altman makes changes late in the year they win the pac-12 tournament they get in as a 12 or 11 and then they go to sweet 16 that that's happened twice now in the last decade um and this team is thin this team had so many injuries but man and then toward the end of the year, they basically put it in the hands of their three best players and were like, go win games.

And then Dante, and Folly Dante was, I don't know if a center has had, I mean, besides Zach Eady, has had a dominant stretch like what he did in that Pac-12 tournament. The dude's shooting like 90% from the field over the last five games, just absolutely dominating people. So yeah, that's an interesting one south the south carolina team will throw they've been exposed by teams that can score they run some kind of mix up defenses and they've been able to beat the sec teams that aren't as good shooters

and so the question is you know can oregon break them down because you've seen a wide range of outcomes for the south carolina team they've won a lot of close games against okay teams and then got blasted by auburn twice they you know so i think they're better than their raw numbers but they still oregon is still the team on the rise yeah and they're one of those teams that South Carolina is one of those teams that plays slow. Their numbers are adjusted really well. Like, you know, like if you – like when Ken Palm makes adjustments, they, you know, adjust for a conference and everything. And, you know, if you play in the Big Ten, in the SEC,

they get like a pretty sizable bump here. But, you know, like when you look at their raw numbers, they're not, you know, like when you look at their raw numbers, they're not, you know, nearly as good. So, you know, we're looking at 67th in offense, 112th in defense, like raw. I mean, it's not a very good team if you're just looking at raw numbers. Now, again, those came against good competition. But so I don't know. It's something worth thinking about. I like Oregon as a team to potentially, you know a make a small mini run here i think a lot of

these western i mean new mexico the same way a lot of these also on the 11 line it's like they're they're very much a if they're a dog at all they're not much of one they they pretty much have a chance to make us a run as any six seed would five or six seed would so uh yeah definitely teams to look at if especially if you get bonuses for these seeds or upsets those would be really strong plays but I don't think you even need that I think you can play it straight up because they're the chances of winning are pretty good yeah I don't mind and we'll you know we can dive into them more in the betting uh betting show tomorrow but any other like lower key seeds I think I have one more that's interesting but i'll kick it to you first you got anyone else um yeah let me see uh ten c uh you know i like some of the dogs um probably more

when we talk betting uh than yeah because the way we're playing it but um i mean we talked we talked we talked against kansas but i like charlestoneston against Bama for a lot of the same reasons. Bama's defense, that is a team that has been imploding on defense for the last month. I mean, just terrible numbers. The only time they don't have absolutely terrible numbers is when their opponents shoot like 15% for three. If their opponents just hit 30%, you're lighting them up, honestly, because they're bad at everything else. I mean, they're struggling to find stops. And this Charleston team, last year's team was like 31-3, and like the hot team to pick, and they did not win.

This team started 1-3, but I think is peaking at the right time and coming on, had some new players, had new players to integrate into a team that had great success. I think it took a little while, but this team is on the rise and capable, especially against a team like Alabama that struggles to get stops. Yeah, no, that's a, that makes a lot of sense. I think that's, that's a pretty good one there. And I mean, getting hot at the right time is very important. It doesn't, you know, it's not necessarily the most quantifiable all the time, but I think it's something that definitely matters. And so one last one for me the morehead state illinois matchup is really

interesting to me because morehead state it's another team 356th in average possession length offensively they take good shots 35th and effective field goal rate defensively you know their adjusted metrics are not good 120th but effective but effective field goal rate-wise, they're ninth, if you're looking at their defense. So again, it's one of those teams where you slow the game down, you make it a little bit more high variance because there's fewer possessions. You make a couple of your shots, play a couple of good possessions on defense. I think they could very squarely be in play here.

So again, I'm not picking them directly. I gave that one out as a pick earlier today. Ooh, all right, nice. very squarely be in play here so again like i'm not picking them directly but yeah show but i gave that one out as a pick earlier oh all right nice okay we'll save a lot of reasons you just said um slow pace and also illinois what what don't they do their defensive numbers are not good but they also don't turn people they're like literally like 360 and turnovers that's one area morehead has struggled but if illinois doesn't turn people over, you're kind of like letting Moorhead off the hook. The one game they played well against a good team was Indiana

against a major conference team, and Indiana didn't turn them over, and they only lost by a point. So, you know, that's one where I think the matchup and Illinois come – how many times have we seen this big team, a Big Ten team with Illinois' profile run through the tournament and then get to the NCAA tournament and face a different style and it not work out. Yeah. All the time. That's a great point there. I'm excited to talk about that more on the betting show specifically because I

mean, Hey, good teams win great teams cover, right? That's all we care about with the bets. Maybe winning outright for the brackets matters more, but that's awesome, man. Well, I appreciate this. This was great. Nice, quick, informative, 30 minutes in and out. Tell everyone what you guys have going on or anything you want to plug right now. Feel free to go wild with it. Yeah, absolutely. Come to pullgenius.com. I believe we have some promo codes with 444 here that you might have in the notes. Show notes. Yeah, show notes.

And so we have bracket picks. But not only that, you get unlimited brackets. Tell us your rules. Tell us everything. We generate the best bracket and four alternates. You're going to get five to choose from or play all five depending on the size. You can look at those. We've got team notes, some of the injuries, some of the trends we've talked about.

We've written that up. We explain why we're high or low on a team relative to, say, the raw power number in our notes. And those numbers are used to generate our bracket predictions. We also have Calcutta and Survivor Tools if you're in those kind of pools. Check it out. Lots of fun contests that we have there. And so we'll be grinding over the next day watching where the markets move. You know, we don't want to be too far off market. We do take some stands.

We find we can take stands against teams. We don't want to be too far above a market. And so we're going to monitor that and see where we're at on teams. But, you know, we'll be watching that over the next day and writing and explaining why we're making the picks we are. Awesome. Absolutely love it. And as we mentioned, we will be live again tomorrow talking about our favorite bets for the first round maybe a couple futures you know uh

here and there but i look forward to it so appreciate you guys all hanging out and Yeah!