Move The Line - March Madness Best Bets For Round 1!

Episode Date: March 19, 2024

Ready to score big in March Madness 2024? Discover the hottest bets for the first round as we unveil our expert predictions for the ultimate NCAA basketball showdown! From underdog upsets to surefire favorites, we'll guide you through the most promising picks to dominate your bracket pool. Join us as we analyze matchups, crunch the numbers, and reveal the top teams primed for victory. Don't gamble on your picks – subscribe now and elevate your bracket game to the next level!Win your bracket pool with the tools and picks from Pool Genius/Team Rankings! Get an exclusive discount up to 55% off a Team Rankings subscription! 👉🏼 https://www.teamrankings.com/4for4-di...Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Jason on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/JasonLiskVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea

The NCAA tournament is almost here, which means we are entering one of the best betting days of the year. I'm Connor Allen hosting a special episode of move the line join me today again is Jason list from our friends over at team rankings and pool genius Jason has the last 24 hours so calm down for you or is it still going uh full throttle here you know it's it's it's calmed down slightly I mean to where you know I've had time to uh go out and get a bite to eat rather than eating what's in the fridge here. Yeah, it's been good. It's been good.

Yeah, that's important. At least you're eating now. I feel like that's a pretty good sign. I can't say healthy. I went and got tacos at 8 a.m. this morning. I don't think that's a good choice. Oh, man. Queso Birria at 8 a.m this morning i don't think that's a good choice but oh man quesabiria at 8 a.m is a wild choice i love me some quesabiria um i don't have any sense of what time it was so i was like yeah no that's uh i'm sure it's a crazy grind um i've noticed that i put out some threads earlier on twitter that have been blowing up that uh it's just an incredibly rabid

audience that's so excited to fill out their brackets been blowing up that it's just an incredibly rabid audience. It's so excited to fill out their brackets and make bets. And it's just like a very condensed time period from Sunday until games lock on Thursday, where you have one of the most captive audiences, I think, in all of sports. So it should be pretty exciting today, though. We're going to be breaking down the best bets of the tournament, plus a few futures bets. If you're looking for bracket advice, check out our last show from yesterday. This show will be posted on both the Move the Line and the Most Accurate Podcast feeds,

because we know you all love betting, brackets, everything here. But before we get into it, I want to mention today's show is sponsored by our friends at Team Rankings. They're tools and analysis. I think it will help you dominate your March Madness pools. They allow you to plug in your own custom settings for how big of a tournament pool you're in, scoring system, and will produce an entire bracket for you that optimizes everything. Their brackets win over 200% more than expected since 2017. So you find the link in the show notes. Again, it's not just a

product that we are partnered with. I legitimately use it. I think it's great work. So it's awesome stuff there. But let's jump in. And you can start anywhere. I mean, I figure we'll touch on a couple bets here. Like you just start with a bet that you really like and still think there's some value on the board right now. Yeah. I mean, I've got to see where it's at. I haven't checked in the last like 30 minutes, so I don't know if lines have moved.

But Drake was had moved to the favorite role, but it was still like one and a half. Yeah. I originally got it in before it moved to one when they were like, they were actually a slight dog to open Sunday night. So Monday I put it in Drake when I got them at a slight plus number. I like this one for a couple reasons. Against Washington State. A, and I say this, Drake broke my heart last year. I had him against Miami, and look what happened to Miami.

So maybe you want to take Washington State. Because Drake, if you recall, that game was played on a Friday night. Drake had the lead most of the game. Drake had Miami on the ropes, and then Drake absolutely crapped it in the final, like two or three minutes and couldn't score. And Miami came back and beat them and then went to the final four. So this Drake team, veteran team, well-coached, they had a bit of a rough start when they had some players out and some of their worst results were back in November. So I tend to look, if teams are playing better and their worst games were

bunched in November. I mean, before Thanksgiving, I know the committee likes to look at those games, but I'm, I'm more willing to forgive them and just say they got off to a rough start at full health. The straight team has been to the NCAA tournament.

They're a good team. They're better than their number. When you look at the power ratings for those reasons, Washington state faded a little bit at the end of the year. After they beat Arizona on the road in a big win, since then it's not been good, and they made a little lineup shift. They've been going a little smaller, and quite frankly, if they're going to continue that,

their two-point field goal percentage defense has kind of plummeted. They've lost. I think they've lost like half their games down the stretch. So I think this is a team that isn't peaking, and I'm willing to take Drake. And then the final factor, Connor, this game's in Omaha. It's for us in the Midwest. That's a little two-hour drive across Des Moines

to Omaha on I-80, whereas you're not getting there by car from Pullman, Washington. And so that's a bit of travel, and it's a massive kind of travel advantage for drake as the underdog it's going to be a drake heavy crowd i think in omaha for this game yeah that's interesting i've always wanted to look more into travel because obviously in nfl there are certain times of travel definitely matters especially when it's like west

coast playing in early games on the East Coast or traveling to London if they travel later in the week those teams tend to prefer uh perform worse um you know I'm putting you on the spot here now a little bit is there any like specific travel Trends or rest Trends or anything like that that I'll fill up your head yeah I don't want to miss quote numbers I don't want to score numbers it's probably been a while it's been a few years since I looked but there definitely was a tendency for upsets to happen when the favorite had a travel far. And obviously, they're not the favorite anymore,

but it's kind of one of those big conference, small conference matchups. We used to see this all the time back in the day, Connor, before we had four networks showing every game. If you remember that we would always have the west region 12-5 game at like four in the afternoon that you may or may not get on the local network and uh you check in and it'd be an upset it'd be like new mexico state over auburn or whoever coming from the east and it happened all the time um so i do think there is the potential for a slight travel advantage i'm not talking huge but i do think there is the potential for a slight travel advantage i'm not talking huge

but i do think it is an additional edge for drake not to have to be in the same time zone and be where their fans are yeah no that definitely makes a lot of sense there for sure um i'm gonna go with a trend here for two bets that i like specifically but we'll start with the first one this is first half unders in the first round of the tournament um if you go back to 2011 my friend uh dalton kate's did some great research here on this it's hitting like close to 59 of the times blind betting every single first half under and i think that's pretty interesting we're talking about only two years in the last 10 where it's not been a net positive in terms of units bet overall. So I think that's pretty interesting.

And so we're going to go here to two teams that play slow and play pretty good defense with St. Mary's and Grand Canyon first half under 61.5 points. Again, it seems low, you know, 30 to 30, you know, 32-30 gets you over. But I'm looking at this under here. St. Mary's allowing only 26.5 first half points per game in the season, third best in the country. They're top 15 in defensive efficiency

and they play super slow, 358th in pace. And they get a Grand Canyon opponent who their adjusted number looks okay, 51st in adjusted defensive efficiency, but their 10th in effective field goal rate allowed, which means they don't allow a lot of easy shots, essentially, like teams take tough shots against them. So that I think matters a lot and could translate to a saint mary's team that isn't exactly like a super

potent offense and um offensively um gcu the antelopes here just 63rd adjusted offense 101st and effective field goal rate so like even against their bad opponents they weren't that good now they get a much much better saint mary's team so i think again you factor some matchup analysis in with this trend because teams are fresh they're playing in a new place they're at a neutral you know standpoint here 10 teams just tend to not shoot as well right off the bus in their first game so i think that's kind of interesting we're looking at 61 and a half 61 and draft games right now 60 and a half on fanduel as long as you're getting it over 60 i still think there's a little bit of value there any thoughts on like kind of that trend in general or St. Mary's or

GCU here I mean I think that some of the trend makes sense in this sense you're a you're you're in a tournament setting playing for your life so I think people get tight they're typically played in venues that those teams haven't played in. Sometimes, it's not like the conference tournaments always. Like if you were just in the Big 12 or the Big East tournament, the crowds are raucous. You may not have like a local crowd at all. It may be pretty dead in there. It may be weird sight lines, all that stuff.

And I think there's also an issue this year. I know the tournament's using different balls than a lot of teams have used in the regular season. You might Google that and see see i don't want to misquote what type of ball but there's only like a handful of teams uh that have used this ball that's being used in the tournament so who knows if if if the ball feels different like basically anything that contributes to feeling different probably disadvantages offense in basketball yeah no totally agree and there's just so many different things at the end of the day I mean you're betting on kids who are like 18 19 20 years old like any small changes here like these guys aren't professionals like they're

obviously great athletes but like they're not professionals you know they haven't been doing this forever so any small changes with the ball circadian rhythm travel anything like that that's different from them uh I don't think that they're immediately just bound to recover so yeah I think a lot more ways that this goes under than over but uh yeah i know i appreciate your opinions there and that makes a lot of sense i'm going to look into the ball i do remember someone talking about it's like one's like stickier or something like that so um what's that what's another bet that you're looking at though uh so another other first round bets i'm looking at i mean one of the one of the ones that popped me right away that and it's already moved down uh morehead state with the double digit points against yeah boy and the

reasons for that are twofold one's illinois related uh teams like this uh illinois's profile very offensive uh excellent in ken palman offense poor in defense and poor in defense while not turning people over which which I think is a bad combination in the tournament. We've seen teams like Ohio State lose to Oral Roberts, teams like, you know, Iowa go on runs. So a lot of the Big Ten teams that have been very kind of like highly efficient on offense have shooters, but can't really pressure the ball and create turnovers. When you get in the tournament, games get tight and you can't get stops and you don't pressure the ball.

That creates opportunities for the underdog to hang around. And secondly, Morehead State plays at one of the slowest paces. So if this is a tight, slow game and Morehead State can control pace and Illinois doesn't turn Morehead State over, which that's one of Morehead State's weaknesses, but if Illinois doesn't exploit that, I think Morehead State can at least stick around and get under this number, if not threatened to win outright or put a little scare into Illinois for a while. Ooh, sounds like you're sprinkling a little bit of the money line there as well. I mean,

I feel you have to, right? I did play the, it looks really good, plus 12 at this point, open to plus 13 and a half. I mean, I think if you're above 10, I think it's kind of interesting. Again, like obviously fouling at the end of the game sucks. You can lose covers half I mean I think if you're above 10 I think it's kind of interesting again like obviously fouling at the end of the game sucks you can lose covers I mean you can get totally screwed I guess that's part of the other reason I like first half unders as well because you don't have a lot of that yeah you don't deal with any game fouling you don't deal with the risk of overtime on the full game total oh man absolutely nothing worse than going to overtime when you have a full game under or seeing like 30 points in the last minute just because of fouling and the other team still hitting their threes.

No, I love the McNeese State play or Morehead State play. I definitely played that as well. Yeah, it all adds up there. Great logic, I think. But we have a question here in the chat for tonight's game from Jeff. Thoughts on Colorado State versus Virginia tonight? We're talking about, I mean, you want to get started with them? You got any big thoughts on Virginia or Colorado State here?

Because I don't speak glowingly of either side, to be honest. Yeah, exactly. And so here's, I'm not going to provide any like super great pearls of wisdom because I have this just like gut feeling. Like I didn't think this Virginia team should be in the tournament. They are one of the worst offensive teams we've seen get in as an at-large. I mean, they showcased themselves in the ACC tournament by luckily surviving against BC and then going to overtime.

Honestly, in a game they probably should have lost, although BC did hit the shot at the end. BC was leading most of that way they controlled that game um and then they they gave up the the tough bank shot to nc state but they let them stick around and let them in and so i thought i mean they're one like even their wins like the committee will like distinguish others but like when they beat a and m radford was out i mean there's all sorts of like even their best wins don't look like that great when you like really study them they're just like completely to me mediocre team because of the offense and all that said they have they play great defense they play slow they grind you down and i could see this team somehow frustrating us

and going on a run while looking ugly where they get to like the sweet 16 unexpectedly because, quite frankly, they don't look like they should be there. I mean, I don't know. That's my thought on them. Colorado State has been highly efficient on offense, but their offense has struggled relatively down the stretch. So will they rebound? The shooting numbers have gone down for Colorado State.

And I think sometimes teams that rely on shooting, as we talked about the unders, if like you rely on shooting and the shooting isn't there because the tournament's a little tougher and the nerves, teams that play defense, turn people over and rebound, have other things to fall back on. When your strength is shooting, sometimes that's a problem in the tournament if it's not going your way yeah no that definitely makes sense

here um i personally hope that you are wrong because i don't want to watch virginia play any more basketball than we have to uh i mean just pathetically boring stuff they scored less than 50 points in multiple games this year so it's not something I'm super interested in watching um I'm gonna hate you want I'm gonna hate watch it probably yeah I mean I would love to bet a first half under the first half over under is like 55. I mean I'm just not doing that that's just like a total like under 120 for the game yeah right like I mean there's probably some value on the over here but there's no shot that I'm betting the over in that game. Like, yeah, just can't do it. We have another bet here from, I think, Andy, a friend of the show and Bettsbert's guy.

He likes Joel Scott under 11 and a half points. So if you want some action on the game, you know, again, if you're searching for action there, I think that's an interesting one for sure. I think you talked about your second one already so i'll go to another um you know i'll go with the team actually here so i like oregon money line outright against south carolina i think that's a fun one we touched on a little bit in the bracket show here um but i think i like oregon's profile coming off a dominant run in the pac-12 here wins over

arizona wins over Colorado. They now draw a South Carolina team that, you know, plays slow. They're not amazing at anything. They were good, you know, in their conference. But I think that there's some holes with this squad here against an Oregon team that's playing better. They're well coached. So I think that this is just an interesting game here for Oregon that you're getting about even money at this point on the money line. So I think that that's a pretty solid look here.

And then on top of this, I also played them to make the Sweet 16 as one of my futures bets at plus 550 on draft games, plus 470 at FanDuel. Again, they have to win this game and then they have to beat a Creighton team that profiles as a late bloomer, according to Ken Barkley, meaning they came on late. They have some holes. You know, i think they're a good team they're you know equal or they're i guess even in terms of offense and defensive efficiency but uh it doesn't mean a team like oregon can't give them a run they'll probably come in as a couple point favorite or underdog i'm sure but again plus 550 uh to get a win over a creating teamon team I think is interesting. Any thoughts on Oregon or either of those bets? Yeah, I think – will they stay hot? Obviously.

Yep. They weren't necessarily shooting lights out other than Dante from the outside in the last couple games. But he has dominated inside. They really – they survived early in the Pac-12, and then the last two games, they basically avenged losses to Arizona and Colorado. They went 0-4 against those teams in the regular season. When they went 0-4 against them, those teams hit like 50% from three.

That regressed to somewhat normal, and they were able to win these games. And so, will they stay hot? Sometimes we see teams win these tournaments and they take some time off. That said, Altman's been a great tournament coach. He's put teams together that go on these runs. And we've seen these Pac-12 teams last year, the Pac-12, rest in peace, recently where it's like, oh, the Pac-12 wasn't that good in the regular season. And then we've seen UCLA go to the Final Four, Oregon State to the Elite Eight. We've seen teams, them in uh when people are like man they aren't that good because they don't do well in november or whatever they didn't get the results and then they go on

these runs and we've seen it out of oregon they went to the sweet 16 as a 12 seed i believe like five years ago maybe the 2019 tournament and um and also blasted uh iowa a couple years ago with the team with luke garza and so altman's done well in the tournament he coaches to i think maximize what he has and he's had to do that with all the injuries but maybe they're hitting their stride and have overcome they're a great story overcoming the injuries they have to be in this tournament is amazing yeah that's always the the give and take right it's like every year we see teams get hot in the conference tournament dominate and then lose in the first round every year we also see teams get hot at the right time and then just keep getting hot you know it's like with that give and take that uh i never know

really which side it's going to be here but if we want to stay in some some interesting kind of futures looks here i have a question on how you approach the market here specifically so obviously draftkings fanduel all these different books they offer the ability to bet on a team to reach the sweet 16 to beat the uh to reach the elite 8 to win the region you know finals etc etc do you generally bet the futures and just forget about it or do you try and like roll over the money line so for example you can instead of betting Oregon 316 I can bet Oregon money line this time take all that money and then bet them again money line against Creighton likely creating the game after um you're probably gaining more value there by doing that if Creighton wins but you're also

sacrificing a ton of value if somehow Creighton loses. So like, do you have a specific approach? Is it team-based? Is it a bracket-based? How do you look at that? I think it's a case-by-case base. And a lot of, actually some of the ones I like to do recently, I like to dabble in getting plus money on one of the top seeds to not make. You can get like two-way markets. Miss Sweet 16.

In brackets, I'm probably not picking those upsets because I don't want to. Here's the thing. I always pick the wrong team to upset. I'm better at identifying the vulnerable teams that I'm like, okay, I think they have some vulnerabilities than actually picking the correct team that will beat them sometimes. I played Purdue to miss last year, the Sweet 16. abilities than actually picking the correct team that will beat them sometimes and so um like i played purdue to miss last year the sweet 16 i did not think it would be far leading first round right fau or memphis either one they drew their guards would give them problems with

turnovers and i thought that was a tougher second round matchup and so a lot of times people i think overestimate how likely these ones and twos are to win, especially the twos, although they're a little more balanced this year, how they're like the other wins. So I actually like, for example, Houston to miss. It's in a bigger number. I think it's in the 300s. But that's because I like both Nebraska and A&M as teams on the rise.

And I think whichever one does win that game, and it wouldn't surprise me whoever it was. So rather than bet which one it'll be, I'd rather play the miss on Houston and take the risk the upset happens. And I'm comfortable with whoever pulls it. But I did that two years ago with Baylor. I did Baylor to miss the year that North Carolina was the eighth seed. And then once North Carolina was facing them,

I also took North Carolina because I was that, I like had a feel like I like the matchup once it happened once it was set so I actually took both and survived in overtime because if you remember they did they they blew the big lead like it was looking awesome and like Baylor came all the way back and then North Carolina won and then they went to the final and so that's how I like to think about those I like to play some of those uh which is different than a lot of people i know most people like this team to make i like to like figure out which teams to maybe fade on a two-way market so i know that this is going to sound ridiculous and probably a little bit degenerate but did you know on fan duel you can take those nose and parlay them I did not so you can parlay

like Florida Atlantic to not make the Elite Eight at like minus 4,000 plus Duquesne plus Dayton plus Mississippi State all it knows to now get like you know a normal price on something um like is is that the most ridiculous thing you've ever heard i mean i might have to look into this now because i feel like there's some teams that like maybe they win one game maybe they win two games but like are they really gonna win three games like you know i don't know you never know yeah you're gonna be the guy like the guys posted i took purdue money line against fairly dickinson oh was it fezik yeah fezik what a legend i mean it's like hilarious he still posts like minus 4,000 money lines

because he says it should be like minus 5,000 or whatever, which is like the ultimate numbers play of like, well, there's X expected value because I make the number this and the number's this, so I got to play it. The variance in his model, I think, for these outlier events. Yeah, it's that, I can't get there.

I generally don't play heavy money lines, anything like that. But I'll probably dabble with some of this. We'll see. Who knows? I like to play in the plus 150 to plus, say, 400 range. Some people like longer shots. I like to take those kind of events. Yeah, the smaller to middle ones.

Awesome. Well, OK, so I guess before we hop off here, the smaller to middle ones. Awesome. Well, okay, so I guess before we hop off here, we have, let's talk, I guess we talked a little bit yesterday about maybe some Cinderella's or sleepers, like any team they're interested in potentially making a run. I can tell you the odds of, you know,

of lead eight, region winner, finals, sweet 16, whatever you're looking at, if you don't have that on hand. But I'm curious, like any teams that you love their, you love their draw. You think that they can win maybe two games? You know, that's probably what we're looking at to really cash a bet here. Anyone off the top of your head here? I mean, I don't know if it's a value anymore. New Mexico's really got a shot to come out of that region. Baylor's defense isn't great. That'll be a shootout. If they, if, if New Mexico beats beats Clemson that Baylor Mexico game will be fantastic and it'll be and really a 20 22 to one to win the region that's a bit longer but you

know what the my opinion of the West was if something crazy is going to happen this is the region most likely to give us like a Florida Atlantic type run a loyal chicago type run just on like how balanced this region is and how many of the teams seated let's say below like the five line i think at least have a shot yeah for sure you're looking at new mexico plus 240 to reach the sweet 16 8 to 1 to reach the lead 8 and then 22 to 1 to win the region um i don't mind that i think i was looking at your guys data that they're like way way more likely to advance than public pick percentage right now as well in brackets oh for sure the public sees the 611 but definitely in bracket play i i don't think i don't

think the average bracket picker is as sharp on where new mexico is the betting market mostly i mean they're the favorite and for a reason reason. Their metrics show they're a little better. I mean, this Clemson team I thought was playing better when they've had Jack Clark in the lineup when they've been at full health, and then they did what they did in the ACC tournament, and I was like, what was that? I mean, it was a head-scratching performance that was concerning. New Mexico on the rise.

Probably – I don't like a lot of the Mountain West teams, and I think – so I'm with the committee on seeding some of them down. But New Mexico, I would have been the one – they actually ran through it for the tournament. I would have – they beat San Diego State, who the committee put as a five. I mean, they're on par with San Diego State, as they should, and they're a five. And so I think you they're on par with San Diego state as they show. And then there are five. And so I think you're getting great value for people that aren't paying

attention now, whether it's quite as good in the betting markets, but I think there's still a good shot. Yeah. I mean, and they're playing, I think what most people consider to be like an overseeded team as well. You know, just given that, I mean, they played in a good conference, but you know, I don't, I don't really think that they were necessarily warranting a six seed there. And that's reflected the betting markets. And that, I mean, they played in a good conference, but you know, I don't, I don't really think that they were necessarily warranting a six seed there. And that's reflected the betting markets. And even, I mean, Ken Palm is New Mexico 23rd, Clemson 34th. They have a

two point win projected for New Mexico. So again, the spreads too. So they're not getting a ton of value there, but I think the futures market's an interesting way to play it as you laid out there. That makes, I think they play a style that i think can can travel well in the tournament um guard oriented but can turn people over and can you know if you can create turnovers in the tournament as you try to make a run i think you've got a chance yeah no definitely love that uh and the last bit that i will leave you guys with, uh, and one of my betting tips for the tournaments relating to player props is betting points, rebounds, and assist unders. Uh, and so one of the things that I've been doing, I, you know, again, I can't get very much down on this on draft Kings anymore. So if you're looking for account preservation, this is not something to do.

If you're a square better, uh, and you want to look into find an edge here, these are really good because the way they do that is obviously they offer a points proper rebound prop and assist prop they take all those they add them up and they usually add like an extra one or two the issue is that they're almost like work against each other in a lot of ways especially the points in the assist if you're not scoring or if you're scoring you're not having an assist if you're making an assist you're not scoring if you get in foul trouble I mean you're basically have no shot of hitting that because you're making an assist, you're not scoring. If you get in foul trouble, I mean, you basically have no shot of hitting that

because you're missing all three opportunities for all three. And I don't think that these projections are right. Like, straight up, I was just hammering unders on PRAs for a while, and then I can bet like $14 on them now, so it's not even worth my time doing research. Yeah, the foul trouble particularly, because if you're used to the NBA, the extra, like the fifth foul is the sixth. I mean, you get guys that literally coaches coaches they get two in the first five minutes they don't come back in in the first half oh yeah with them and and that's what happens all the time uh that's why you see minute minute quite quite broad minute distributions from game to game for players

yeah and it's like i mean you can look at guys where we'll have a, you know, some of the projections that I see will have a discount on, you know, the under on the rebounds and the points, and then they'll end up going over the rebounds, but you know, they only have four points. So it's like, they can't even hit 20 PRA with four points and even 12 rebounds. So it's, it's one of those things that, you know, if you're looking to get into the problem market, I think it's pretty interesting. Uh, one of the things that I've noticed specifically, I will be at the drafting sports book onbook on Thursday in Chicago, manually feeding the kiosk so I can get down on these, but the app's not working too well. But Jason,

I guess any last things here to wrap it up? And if not, feel free to plug what you got going on for the rest of the week, man. We made it through this. No, we'll get to find out where we're wrong on everything come thursday excited excited for it it should be a fun tournament i i will say i don't think i'm gonna go out on a limb it's not gonna be as crazy as last year last year was historic um i do think we're gonna see some top seeds advance deeply there may be one surprise run to the final four but i think it's going to be more like a typical year where you have one seven maybe slipping through or 111 or something like that an eight that knocks off the one and goes on a run but not like all four regions uh so

but i will be excited to see that um i'm excited to look at like the specialty props once we get into it i like i've had success betting the over on seeds for the final four the last two years i'm wondering if the number will be sharper this year because i was able to get it like at a number that it it clenched by the elite eight both years um in the last few so but i haven't seen that number yet i'm gonna go look for it see if anybody's offered it yeah i mean i fell down my first bracket and had three one seeds and two seed. So it's I'm I feel like a complete square, but I just think it's one of those years. I think there's a couple of good one seeds and one and two seeds.

So we'll see probably less variance than last year where there was multiple double digit seeds. And, you know, UConn was a four seed four seed I think last year in a pretty not similar but interesting spot kind of like what Auburn's in right now in terms of ranking and in terms of where that but obviously they do have to face Yukon uh there and probably the Sweet 16. so pretty big roadblock on their way to the final final four but overall uh I think this was great you know appreciate you coming on here you can thank you yeah you can find all of uh jason's stuff over at team rankings and pool genius uh you know link in the show notes there and if you want my official bets you can go to four four dot com slash plans i have my article up already uh

there where i have five or six bets and i'll probably be releasing a couple more here in the coming days so appreciate you guys all listening for j Jason, I'm Connor. We will talk soon.