Move The Line - MORE Best Bets for the 2024 NFL Draft! | Everything You Need to Know!

Episode Date: April 24, 2024

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hello and welcome to move live presented by four four bets i am ryan newton here for our last nfl draft show of the season connor allen scott smith vegas refunds uh just here to suss through whatever we can make ups and downs i started smoking last night uh you know it was it got that stressful figured this point good time to pick up some new hobbies information information coming in. What's information? What's noise? What's reporting? What's speculation? And that's what we're here for today in our final hour to try to suss through some of this stuff here.

Connor Allen, what's going on, buddy? Yeah, just some of the craziest rumors in the last like 12 hours. And, you know, some of them might be right. Some of them might be wrong. I don't know. I think it's an interesting time and I'm excited to break down some of them because I think I'm certainly not buying a lot of the late steam that we're hearing. We're going to comb through rumors and questions today. So if you are hanging out with us in the chat, throw them in there. We will circle back and make time or bounce around to your questions, whatever you want here. Let us know what you're looking at. Let us know what your questions are.

Steam that you may have heard, anything like that. We'll jump around there to Scott Smith, repping the purple and gold LSU today. What's going on, buddy? There we go. That side. Oh, look, it's, you know, grind time. Last little bit of craziness that's coming out,

trying to like search through some of that. And, you know, this is actually a time when when legitimate information starts coming out there's a lot of smoke screens that lead and then you start to kind of be able to see through some of the smoke and see some of the real stuff come out still waiting on some of the bigger guys mock drafts to come out and see where they're leaning in a sense but um i think there's some some good stuff to go ahead and source through today. Yeah, VR, I heard someone today say now is the time to shut out everything. And I couldn't agree less with that statement. I think now is the time to really be plugged in because we start to get even more actual information from perfect sources at times.

So how are we doing today, bud? Yeah, I mean, I'm like, I think I pay attention to this stuff that really isn't involving the really early picks to an extent or quarterbacks, I guess you could say. I'm kind of just, with the quarterback stuff, I'm blocking out. Don't really have many shares, if any, on any of them. But when we're talking non-quarterback rumors, that's the stuff I'm definitely paying attention to. Yeah.

We're going to get through chargers. We'll get through all of that today. So yeah, keep the questions flying in on our mind folks. If you want to get all the official plays from the four of us here, you want to get into the discord at four for four, do that. You need our betting subscription for four,

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Go to the promo code or the plans page. Use that promo code VR and the promo code or the plans page use that promo code vr and get in there all right for the final time scott draft starts at two bud uh what are we doing with uh the commanders and all the uh quarterback news and you can take the quarterback stuff any way you want commanders pats uh trade up whatever you want to do here bud so i've been asked a few times over the last 24 hours where do i stand on uh washington at two i i think based on all the information that i've gotten that it's going to be jayden daniels i think uh for multiple reasons washington's not the first for daniels in his camp um they have very strong feelings that had he or if he goes to minnesota

by some chance that he could be rookie of the year. And I think Minnesota is a good space, a good spot for any quarterback that lands there. But, you know, I think sourcing through everything through the last few weeks, the rumors have been true where Washington's not necessarily his top choice. But I think when it's all said and done, that's where he's going to go. Some of the other information that I got, Colin Kyled has been adamant that it's going to be Jaden Daniels throughout the process and his source supposedly is coming directly

from Cliff Kingsbury some other outside sources through some player evaluation people are also saying that it's going to be Jaden Daniels and so without Washington officially saying it's Jaden Daniels I feel about as comfortable as I possibly can from the other sources be jayden daniels and so without washington officially saying it's jayden daniels i feel about as comfortable as i possibly can from the other sources saying it's going to be jayden

daniels at two uh where we stand with that vr any uh any thoughts on how to attack this or it's just kind of too late because we've kind of moved through a spot where like it's like minus 400 minus 600 in some spots for j Daniels to be a number two overall. Yeah. I think like the only way to attack it at this point, like I think it's pretty much in pen too, is you can pilot it on what you pick on FanDuel, like FanDuel number two pick with whatever,

like four top 10 guys, like a doomsday, whoever it is would probably be your best way to attack it. And if you don't have FanDuel or you're just not into the parlays, I would just sit it out at this point. Unless you just want to lay crazy juice. And I feel like every time I lay crazy juice, something bad happens. Connor, how does that affect the next couple of picks too? What are we doing here in terms of exact is a new England at three or anything

you want to talk about with the manners here too? Yeah. If the commanders take Daniels at two, and then we're looking at pick three there, you know, I think what we've heard for the last few weeks is that the Patriots really like Drake may. And that was like pretty consistent for a long time. And, you know, I wasn't sure if it was on their board, Jaden, then May or just May, no matter what. But that's been pretty steady.

And then today we got some rumors pretty publicly from I think it was Dane. Dane Brugler tweeted it out. And then some other people have said that they are heavily considering J.J. McCarthy at pick three. And then and a lot of this came from the rumors stemming from the owners, like meddling with basically everything, like the owners sitting in. And we saw last year that happened with the Texans a little bit and, or with the Panthers. And like, it's really just something that kind of throws everything for a curve ball here. So for me, like the exact is are tough because I really do think it's a little bit more up in the air than what people are suggesting right now.

And if May goes three, I think JJ could easily go four or five, probably five to be honest at this point, maybe even further. I mean, some people have suggested he might slide. I think that it'll still be the fifth overall. But then if JJ McCarthy goes three, I think that it'll still be uh the fifth overall but then if if jj mccarthy goes three i think that we see some teams like aggressively trying to move into four and probably meet arizona's demands of trading up so i think there's like a lot of alternatives the way this top five can shake out depending on who goes three so talk to me about that real quick because

with may off the board at three mccarthy the lone top quarterback left you don't think that there's a team that really wants to move up to solidify locking him up and the Cardinals are kind of off the board or you just think like because what's the difference if you think it's going to be five like why wouldn't the Cardinals still be in play the Cardinals price tag is higher than the Chargers price tag from my understanding and the Chargers are more motivated to move down than like I said especially significantly into the 10 and 11 12 range than the cardinals who by all accounts view neighbors and car and marvin harrison jr pretty similarly and we just say it's six so i think there's just a different price tag involved and level of motivation cardinals would almost

have to make two moves basically to stay in the range to be able to lock up that wide receiver yeah they could they did it last year right we know that video has been going around that's obviously the popular one and uh speak to that uh all right let's talk about the uh the rumor of the day i guess vr uh we've had a lot of uh jc latham uh smoke whether you want to you know first non-quarterback off the board first offensive lineman off the board the target of the chargers does that mean lay them at five does that mean positioning yourself to trade back what do we make ups and downs of latham and how do we kind of attack in the market right now i mean skyper was on latham to the chargers i want to say like

back in january and he stuck to it for a while until he came off. And last couple of days, there's been like dot connecting with the Chargers and Latham. And I mean, there's like a bunch of Twitter photos of the pro days with the Chargers offensive lineman, like paying a lot of attention to him. But I think it's been assumed that Latham would be 11. Like they trade back, they take Latham at 11,

which I think is still the most realistic option. But now it's coming out to the extent that, I mean, Breer just had his rumor piece that he puts out every couple of days or every other day. And the biggest thing I took from it was he was connecting Latham to the chargers. Wouldn't be crazy for them just to stick at five and take Latham at five.

And then after that, he said if he doesn't go to five, he sees Latham going seven to the Titans, which would assume Alt would go five. So offensive line is definitely becoming extremely strong for the chargers and with all this like smoke or whatever it is with kind of jj maybe falling or like a trade not happening at four or five i think whether it's like exactus or anything whether it's alter with them i think that is at five becoming more and more realistic. Crush a lot of pretty fun exactus. I went, I got, I was not responsible yesterday with the exactus,

which a lot of them were, uh, it was like Cardinals and neighbors. Um, and then, I mean, I've had a bunch of Latham five and Latham first offensive line I gave out Latham under 14 and a half a month ago um but yeah it's uh exact as they're just the thing once you start it's like the best the Cardinals neighbors on FanDuel we can get into that later but those

are what I went crazy on. Yeah, so I have basically any iteration of the four quarterbacks and Marvin Harrison Jr. I don't have any neighbors in there, but I feel like I have, if it's some sort of combination of the four quarterbacks going five and Harrison, I probably have the ticket, which is kind of, we'll see, makes for an interesting early watch there tomorrow night. We're coming up on that.

So yeah, a lot of good questions. Keep firing them in there too. Connor, you talked about it yesterday in the mock that we went through around the Giants. The Giants, you know, kind of tight-lipped this year, comparatively with the new front office. The last couple of years have been a little bit harder than how they had been historically.

Team, some people think that they're a great trade back candidates some people think that they want to trade up to get a quarterback uh we yesterday uh mocked a dunesay going over neighbors don't have any reporting there but is there any way that you think that that could be played in terms of bets to be made now or anything with the giants in general yeah the giants are still a little bit of a mystery to me. And I, I'm not really buying the reports that I know there's been a lot of reports with like, Oh, the Giants aren't a JJ team. And I know that there's strong reporters saying that, but like, uh, you know, JJ McCarthy spent the most time with the Giants. He went on

record saying that, um, again, it's just like one of those things, like, why, why do we think now all of a sudden these three reporters know what the giants are going to do and what they want? Like they have had no fucking clue for like three years, you know, since Joe Shane took it off. It's like, they just have no idea, like totally wrong, basically in every direction. So I don't know, just to me, it seems like something that I don't know. I still like JJ to go under five and a half because I still think that most teams that they want and we'll probably think that the giants are still a threat. Um, but I mean, maybe not again, like also if, if you do want JJ McCarthy, of course, the giants are going to be spilling. Like they're not a JJ McCarthy team. Again,

it's like one of those things that that's just like, makes a ton of sense. So I don't know. I think that for me, the giants are still kind of hands off here. Like six, seven, six and seven have been just like really tough like honestly picks that i've generally avoided just because it's super chalky at seven and then the giants could go like four different directions or trade up yeah this uh question from brad in the chat um eric eager fan of the show uh eager said earlier uh that he doesn't see questy moving up to five for qb4 maybe to pick seven ish that makes zero sense to me someone can explain what the difference is if you've identified quarterback as a need why are we getting caught up on a which qb number that is in the draft because each draft

is independent of the other one and what's the real difference i understand that it costs a little bit more to go to five than the seven, but this seems like, I don't know. You're playing chicken. I don't know. I think the issue with this in the reporting that's come out is that Arizona and specifically I think New England are both asking for extra first-round picks at this point in time and essentially playing hard to hard ball,

running it up to the clock to see if they can squeeze something extra out of either of these teams that are going to look to move up. Yeah. I mean, I get, you know, you're in the power position right now to, to leverage all you can obviously until you get put in the clock.

So I get why the deals aren't being made yet. Even though historically we've seen some previously, it's okay to be like, I don't know. I have a hard time with like the QB four and the class thing. It's like, if people have identified, these are like top 10 picks viable, starting NFL quarterbacks.

Like who gives a rip? If he's QB seven, if we just happen to have a class that has seven dudes in it, like, you know, why are we, we have so much ego that we can't move off of the fact that he's QB4.

You're a pick 11. You're not in position to get to QB1 or QB2. You've got to take QB4. And if people have graded him in a sense that he deserves to be inside the top 10, I don't know. So for me, and there's two parts to this. Jeremiah on that Twitter space yesterday, which was actually great, especially once Aqib Talib hopped off.

No, that was Devin Witherspoon. Excuse me. Devin Witherspoon hopped off. But his final thought was he thinks that the top 10 is going to be way more chalky than what people are expecting, which to me, I'm saying less trades. Now, I don't know if a JJ trade up is chalk at this point. That remains to be seen.

But off of that, which I guess he said the same thing on PMT podcast as well. But and then there were the tweets last night about I think it was like Breer, Breer and I forget whoever it was. I think it was Breer basically saying like, JJ is not a Giants guy and like they want Drake May, which if they're not in on JJ, like the whole point of trading up to four or five was kind of to get in front of the Giants,

I guess you could say, which they don't have to do that. And like the Giants traded the pads or they just don't take either. Trading up to four or five is like not as necessary as it was i want to say we're like trading into like seven or eight could be more realistic if you're not scared of the giants and if the giants make a trade with the pats i would say then jj's gone at six but yeah i mean i don't know like it's every year it happens but we've just been

assuming jj is going to go four or five and a trade is going to happen which is kind of like the issue with making bets off of assumed trades because that's the problem um but at the same time that's why there's been value this whole time because if it does happen jj under should have been like minus infinity yeah yeah connor we were talking last night like it's such a tough spot because it feels like three four five six seven you can go all the way down to i don't know 13 and there are there's been a i wouldn't say viable but like a rumor that makes sense for all of those teams to trade one way or the other makes this like really challenging.

And it's not unique into the season. Like that happens all the time, but just how it plays itself out in this cluster at the top half of the first round is I think uniquely challenging this year in terms of bets and mocks. So where are some of like the really viable, maybe the back half here, the top 10 draft,

like draft day trades that you are expecting to happen, things are more likely to happen than not or some of the other rumors you've heard that you think just don't make sense to you yeah i've heard that the jets are super interested in trading up so i think that they move up to seven or eight to get a dunes our neighbors and i think that's been you know pretty steady steam there on that um you know publicly and privately so i think that that would make a ton of sense for theets to move up a couple of picks just because it probably wouldn't cost them that much, to be honest, too, especially again, if all the quarterbacks are off the board, if they're not, then it might be a little bit different and someone else might move up in that range. But I think the Titans and I think in my final mock, I'll probably be having the Titans and Jets doing

a flip there for a dunza and then the Titans still landing Joe alle all to 10 um 10th overall so i think that that is a pretty interesting one there i think the falcons are very alive to trade down if the titans don't uh as well the bears could trade down we've talked about it uh i mean a couple times but i again like it's it's teams are trading up for either the quarterback or for one of those wide receivers i'm just not really buying the whole trade up for bowers thing i I mean, maybe they're trading up for an offensive lineman. Daniel Jeremiah did report that like tons of teams were like calling about offensive linemen. So I mean, that's a potential as well, but again, I, it would just have to be a small trade, I would say. Um, but it's like those seven, eight, nine, all have guys like on their boards that they could probably get

a little bit later. Um, that's what it seems like at least so they make the most sense to me to be honest scott where are you at in this mix all these speculative trades yeah it's really hard to to with a lot of the the rumors and stuff that are coming in here on the back end it's hard to parse out all of these players and i think somebody in the comment section made a made a smart ass comment that it's uh by his count there's like 18 people that are going in the top 10 um and I think that's kind of accurate and you have to start kind of deciding who's going to be on on the outside looking in for me I kind of feel like it's Brock Bowers I think if you have a chance to go up and get a dunze I think one of those teams are going to do it and then with a lot of the smoke that's been coming in on byron murphy to chicago um you know it's going to be a dunesay that has to go

first in order for in my opinion chicago to get to byron murphy so i think that's where uh that's really to me where things kind of come in and that kind of pushes brock bowers down whether that be a pick or two to you know to, to 12 to Denver is, is one of the things we've heard a little bit of steam on, but you know, it's, it's gotta be a doomsday is the player that I think a lot of teams are going to be trading up for.

VR, anything to add to this kind of clusterfuck of traits? Yeah. You would assume it's a doomsday. Yeah. I mean, it's a doomsday neighbors, I guess if either of those fall um i think that's what

everyone's assuming which is kind of the scary part but like latham is the wild card in the top 10 and i would say probably murphy as well which i think everyone saw murphy's odds get destroyed yesterday to go number nine but no matter the order like there's eight guys that we think are just going to go and then there could be two wild cards whether that's Murphy or Latham and then it's kind of just like Bowers is either going to the Jets or he's not which I only know but it really just comes down to like the receivers in the end. So, yeah, I mean, I think there's just going to be, every year there's just less trades than we project.

And the other issue I'd point out specifically when it comes to Adunze is I've heard at least three teams, Indianapolis and Buffalo being two, that have called up into the top 10 to where they at least know what the price is to trade up to get a doomsday. So the interest that I keep hearing all revolves around that one player. And you look at it and it makes the most sense because he's kind of the cutoff of those top three where gap begins to form. Then you start to factor in the injury stuff with brian thomas junior junior so it makes too much sense for it not to be a dunes that it's going to be the

the trade target of any team that moves up there yeah yeah i agree with that uh connor i'll go back to you with the uh a couple things here to round out uh two thoughts i want to get you've been pretty like strong in the last week or so about Brock Bowers over, not 10, not Jets. Where are we at there? And then where are we at with the Bears 9 versus all of the, you know, latest Byron Murphy news and stuff like that? Yeah.

I mean, we did bet some Byron Murphy yesterday. I was pretty reluctant, you know, again, but there's multiple people who told me that, you know, the interest is very real and that it's definitely a possibility if Odunza is off the board. So, yeah. No, I think that it's something that's worth paying attention to. We have a question.

Murphy, first offensive player, sounds very doable. Yeah, I mean, if someone trades ahead of the Bears with eight, with the Falcons there and grabs Odunza, and then the Bears take Byron Murphy. I think that's very viable. I still don't think you can go with Verse. I mean, it just, again, doesn't really make a whole lot of sense on paper. If them take a guy like Byron Murphy,

it doesn't really match any of the thresholds they had. It could be just a very well-coordinated smoke screen that's reached some people that I respect. I mean, it wouldn't be the first time that happened. I mean, last year, Jalen Carter was minus 300 to go fifth close uh, you know, close and they took Devin Witherspoon. So again, I respect those people as well. Um, and you know, everyone gets one or two wrong here and there. So I still think that there's a chance that it's verse. Um, but right now looking at Murphy, uh, I don't think that the jets take Brock Bowers. I'm, you know, fairly dug in there.

I do think that there's, you know, the Broncos could consider him at 12. So, you know, that could be worth a look at. I think that's like 12 to one right now. So that's, that's something that's interesting, but yeah, that's Bowers. I still just don't see it at 10. VR Broncos at 12. It just makes me go back to the conversations we've been having for a couple of months now. BB's five and six.

Penix has been on the move. Connors dug his heels in there as well. I mean, I get the player eval there too. It's just a, you know, threading the needle to move back. And I think, you know, Scott's talked about back end of round one where a team moves up. Where are we at with Knicks? Where are we at with Pennix?

How do we approach this? Do we leave it alone? Obviously, we're, you know, laying some pretty massive juice in the quarterback four and a half market so we've said this a million times like this happens every year and i just refuse to believe the panics and nick's first round height but at the same time i'm extremely happy to have zero shares with either of them on their overs because i would never bet the under i don't see it at 12 or 13. I guess they're a trade back spot,

which there is stuff about the Colts or maybe the Eagles wanting to trade up for a corner, which that would be like Quinion Mitchell yesterday. But if any team is locked up of anyone, the Colts never leak anything. We don't know what the Colts are going to do ever. And there being a rumor about the Colts trading up, I just don't buy because we don't know. And I think the Eagles, if they're trading up, they're trading up for an offensive

lineman. But at 12 and 13, I just refuse. I have zero shares involved i don't think i wouldn't recommend it um but bo nix's under got slammed this morning um it's like he's over i think was like minus 300 and now it's over is like i think it's almost like even money someone i think we know who it is yeah we have a friend of the show who gave us a quote drop the anvil bo nicks to the round one play uh and when you know we we pressed them a little bit on and i i don't know i you know i'm not sold so i think i i would agree with you there um value play yeah it doesn't mean it's not happening but the supporting evidence was not supporting enough yeah uh scott where are you at with this in terms of you know your last mock that you had on the site i know final one will be you know tonight tomorrow morning uh last one you had had uh trade

with uh the niners i mean the raiders moved back into 31. The select Pennix, where are you at? And again, you were early first mock, I believe, in VR's sheets to tracking had Knicks 12 to Denver. You were kind of early there, too. So where are you at? So I think it's important for people who read a lot of mock drafts to understand the game that's being played with mock drafts in a sense. A lot of people that put out mock drafts are putting them out specifically for scoring purposes not necessarily betting purposes um my personal opinion is or even accuracy right i mean even though it's scoring for an accuracy competition it's not necessarily accuracy and the way some of these things some of these things get scored is you can have a player that gets drafted at 32, but if you had them at 12 that, you know, to that team, you'll get scored positive points for that. So I think

some people that are putting both Pennix and Knicks there at 12 and 13 are kind of playing the scoring game with, with the mock drafts. I, I feel like from a GM standpoint, it would be incredibly irresponsible for either the GMs of those two teams to draft either of those players at those ranges. For Denver, I would think that they would probably have one or two players on the boards that they're comfortable with staying at that and picking. And then if either of those couple of players are off the board, I would maybe think that they would move down. You've been hearing a lot of trade rumors. And I can see Knicks going to Denver in a trade-down scenario. I think Denver's draft capital, I think it would be, again, irresponsible for them to trade future-year picks to move back into the first round to go ahead and trade and then for the raiders i think there is a possibility that they could move

in and go ahead and get um you know go ahead and get pennix there in the first round but my issue with the raiders is that it has been so loud and in your face with pennix to the raiders and pennix has to go to the raiders before Seattle is there. Pennix has to go like, it's been so loud and in your face that like, I feel like it's just not true because of how loud and obvious that it's been. And then they're supporting evidence with, with past drafts. I saw a chart earlier today talking about how rarely, you know, quarterbacks go in the first round after pick 15. Um, so if I don't feel like those two players are going to go ahead and get drafted at 12 or 13, then it's hard for me to feel like

they're going to go in the first round. Um, I do think there's a chance, like I said, for Nick's, if, if Denver trades back, but I have my doubts, um, that either, either player is valued at a first-round value. I think Nix has a higher floor and there's less questions about him, so he has a little bit more of a chance, especially if Denver misses out on those guys. But I think from a value standpoint and setting the board, I think Denver's going to have players there at 12 that they value. Real quick, Pennix rumored to be 6th overall pick

and 8th overall pick of the Giants and Falcons. Just like complete nonsense, right? I mean, it's like total garbage. I mean, yeah. Total garbage. The fact that anyone like with a straight face actually tried to report that is like honestly embarrassing. Yeah.

I mean, if you sit down at a table to play cards and can't find the mark, you're probably a mark, right? Like this is just someone's being used to get some information out there. I don't know the purpose of the information, but it seems like one of those situations where, yeah, you're just trying to create leverage with your spot to get a better trade up. So Patrick in the chat referencing VR's boy, Jarecki dying on the hill the cardinals will trade back um i'm there man i think the cardinals are the trade spot still i'd be very surprised if they are not but i it makes sense why the chargers too and i think connor did a good job

laying out why but i still think the cardinals are kind of holding all the cards when we get on the clock there uh on thursday night so the to them. The one part that I have heard is that the Cardinals are really playing hardball and trying to take this up until the point that they're actually on the clock. They're trying to put the pressure on other teams. But I've heard specifically that Minnesota is willing to basically call their bluff and force them to make the pick. The one part where I think it comes into consideration is I think that the Giants do have strong feelings towards Drake May.

And the same way that the Patriots are set up to allow Drake May a redshirt year, I think the Giants are set up in that same way, you know, and just riding out Danny Dimes for another year and letting Drake May sit and develop. I think, depending upon what happens at three, kind of reverses that pressure to put it back on Arizona to go ahead and make a deal. Lots of good questions in the chat. Keep throwing them up. Connor, what do you got for us? I got the Jarecki quote here. He said, if any Mocs don't have the Cardinals trading down, I'll pass. This team is not one player away.

So that was the quote we saw there. Here's the thing, though. And I think, you know, shout out to our buddy, Ben Solak. So he said this, and I totally agree. Although, again, I want to reiterate, I think that the Cardinals trade down. They have six picks in the top 90. You know, who are, like, the top? Who's,'s like the second and third best player in the cardinals right like paris johnson buda baker but then what it kind of falls off a cliff and you have six in of 90 you don't need a bunch of like next kind of tier guys at a certain point you have

to start to leverage these into blue chippers so um again i don't think you can't do that by trading down um i think you can still get a couple of of blue chippers here i will have that mocked for sure because i think they still have a ton of equity to be able to manipulate where they want to go if they have dance partners and it feels like there's enough rumors where teams want to go up and down that there are dance partners to be to be had so yeah i mean i i think that they trade um and that's why i'm still holding out hope for our underrun jj and one thing i'll point out is that you have some mock drafters out there that are putting you know malik neighbors there ahead of marvin harrison jr i tend to think that for the cardinal standpoint that they have both Malik

Nabors and Marvin Harrison Jr. graded very similarly. Even if Nabors is a little bit ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr., that gives them more incentive to go ahead and trade down, get those picks, and possibly move back up. I think if you have two guys like that, I think there's some wiggle room to go ahead and move down. You're not always guaranteed that it's going to happen, but with sitting here hearing the things that we're hearing about Tennessee at seven and Atlanta at eight and those teams like that,

I think you'll see some mock drafts out there with neighbors at four to Arizona, but it's not necessarily that they're going to draft neighbors ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr. They might just be mocking him in a projection of Arizona moving back up to get neighbors. Yesterday, I was of the opinion that the Pats would just take Drake May. And I'm starting to think JJ is definitely an option at three. And if the Pats take JJ at three, then the Cardinals are 100% trading out, in my opinion.

If Drake is there at four, my God, back up the trucks, which the exact why they're going to wait until they're on the clock um so i think and i do think jj at three is a pass fan it's just awful but i think it's kind of in the cards right now um does feel like a patriot doesn't he a little bit kind of feels like a patriot he does and like which like which like the Cardinals trading with the Cardinals trading with the Giants, which is in that scenario is just the biggest no brainer because it can still get theoretically neighbors at six or Marvin instead of having to like trade back,

back up, which yeah, it's a God, please don't take JJ from a fan perspective. Just one thing. I'll one thing I'll point out is that early on in the process a month ago, you heard rumors that Elliot Wolfe was very high on JJ McCarthy. And he's essentially who's supposed to be running the draft. And you're starting to hear those same things come back around, even though everybody's been stuck on Drake May.

Another one is Talese Fuaga. He was very much in the mix with the Jets very early on in the process, and then it shifted to Fatano. And now you're hearing late in the process that it's coming back to Fuaga. So some of these draft rumors and things that you hear early on, when they start to pop up late in the process Again I think there's some validity there

And some smoke to go ahead and pay attention to And Wolf is With the Browns when they took Baker number one right Yeah Which is like The evidence that he is not shy in doing Which was like Insanely contrarian

I forgot who was in that draft. I think everything was like a bust, but no one had Baker going one the longest time. And then he went, and that was like he had stones to draft Baker number one, which would be the same thing with JJ at three. And that is what makes me nervous. Just a matter of how much is it Wolves call versus sounds like, you know, the crafts are heavily involved too. So who actually gets final say,

but in terms of like them training out and not taking a quarterback or training to a position where they're not taking quarterback, I don't feel that that's a viable option for New England. I think they'd ownership is like, you're taking quarterback and then they can pick who um they're not gonna like ownership's not gonna be like i want drake may or i want jj mccarthy and they're gonna take him happened last year they might they might i mean we i felt pretty good about cj stroud based of all the reporting that we had and it seems pretty evident based off of reporting after the facts and his reactions to

watching football games that david tepper was very heavily involved in pulling the strings on uh rice young one versus cj stroud so yeah i mean it's not completely unheard of yeah tepper's awful but he's a 101 yeah all right so let's go through some questions what do you got connor what do you say no i was gonna say yeah let's go through some questions what do you got connor what do you say no i was gonna say yeah let's rip through some questions here we got some good um a marius mims one there's been a ton of steam here so are you buying any of the mims team cecil lammy reporting titans have interest in him at seven worth 50 to 1 lunch money bet to go seventh um 25 to 1 second online under 22 and a half v br i think you had some interest in

mims unders right or you're considering it or not really um i've been so dialed in on latham i mean top 10 would be crazy um yeah i don't i can't see mims top 10 that seems a little wild yeah but i'm one never to tell someone not to bet something in this range because I never want to be the guy that says don't bet a 50 to 1 and then it hits and you're the reason. So, yeah, have fun with the 50 to 1s. 20 to 1 or higher, I will never tell you it's a bad idea. Under 22.5 feels like a pretty good bet uh at this point if that's you know depending on what you're laying there so yeah i mean

10 top 10 i can't get to but yeah keep finding my way connor you want to put some more up yeah uh so we got another one did you guys hear uh jeremiah on philly radio saying that he thinks roseman is definitely in trade to get an alab corner. There's been a ton of hype about them trading up. I think we heard somewhere that it was going to be an offensive lineman, I believe, not a corner, but there has been some, I guess, multiple reporting on being a corner or an offensive lineman. Noonan, I think, have you heard anything on that? I feel like we heard some rumblings of that, right? Yeah. I think we have a pretty good Philly source that's plugged in that's moved us off of offensive line and into corner a little bit too.

But I think that there's a great partnership with the Colts at 15 who could be looking to trade back and add either one of the corners that falls or Brian Thomas Jr. possibly. I think that that could make a ton of sense as a trade partner where you don't have to leverage too, too much to jump from 22 to 15 and the Colts to win for them because they can still get their guy too. So that's something I've been playing around with this morning a little bit. Yeah, no, for sure.

That makes sense. All right. Will Byron Murphy be the first-time player off the board? I think we talked about that. I think definitely possible. I would rather. So, like, Byron Murphy, first defensive player. There's two.

Like, you're going to go top 10, which aren't as great. I mean, they've all just been beaten down. Anything Byron Murphy at this point is, like, sub 200. You're 24 hours late. Yeah, you're 24 hours late probably. First defensive, if the Falcons stay pat, that probably loses. Then him

going 9 or top 10, Adunze or I guess Neighbors is the guy I just can't figure out in terms of if Adunze's there at 9, I'm assuming. Which is part of the reason why it was plus 200 or whatever it is but yeah i mean i still think it's a no-brainer for the falcons to swap with the

jets but at the same time if jj falls like i bet they'll swap with the broncos and then go to 11 um which means dunes they could be there but yeah and then touching on the falcons real quick any more on the d line the falcons prefer um clemson jeff told us not to call him clemson jeff he got offended that we put the school in front of his name but so we'll just call him jeff uh who also went to clemson i believe uh he is he's adamant on lotu uh some other bigger names have mocked latu there um you know my bags are packed on latu uh being the falcons guy i took turner turner over falcons latu so yeah i mean that's where i stand currently i feel like we're all in the same boat there right yeah latu makes the most sense from multiple standpoints of the falcons having multiple outs if they stick there

and he's the higher player over Dallas Turner, then Latu's the pick. If they trade down, there's still a chance that Latu's going to be there and be the pick. The only other team that I've heard is high on Latu is Denver, kind of at 12, but I would not think that the Falcons would move that far down to be below Denver. Yeah, that makes sense. We got an interesting one here.

Jordan Morgan, he said, Nick said, can we be nice to my Jordan Morgan over 32 and a half bags today, please? I think Jordan Morgan goes in the first round. I think I'm not going to lie, Nick, I'm sorry. But I mean, you guys have any like notes on Morgan? I feel like he's, what is he percentage wisewise in your sheet now, first round, VR? Let me see. Yeah, there's multiple teams in the first round that have high grades on Morgan at multiple different positions.

Some teams think he can play left tackle. Some teams slot him in as a right tackle. And some teams think he can be a pro bowler as a guard. He's got movement skills. I think his arms aren't the longest, which is some of the things that some teams look for at left tackle. But specifically, I think you could see multiple teams move into that 25 to 26 range and see him go. I think Dallas is an option at 24, all the way down to, I really don't see him getting past, say, Baltimore at 30.

So I tend to want to play the under heavily on Jordan Morgan being a pick there. Yeah, and on that Twitter spaces thing with Jeremiah yesterday, at the end he was kind of basically certifying the commanders to trading back into the first which he's like if you just read the tea leaves like there's nothing more obvious than the commanders trading back into the first for an offensive lineman or offensive tackle and he also is preaching they're all just going to go early which the tackles going early are going to pull a guy like jordan morgan into the first and there's been rumors that commanders love Morgan on Walter football, et cetera,

which like, whether it's the Ravens or the commanders trading in, like, I think there are scenarios that are growing for him to go in the first, but at the same time, like if guys like the tunnel or whoever fall, they're going to push him back. And I mean,

he's only like 50 in the first on my mocks um yeah it's not that high honestly i thought it was gonna be higher um i have all of them in the first round of my mock um and then i have 20 i got a 25 to green bay he's like a 9-3 raz as a tackle so if green bay thinks he's a guard that raz is like yeah better so and morgan's a guy who's had multiple visits with multiple teams so it's not just that he's got an interest on like top 30 visits you've had teams meeting with him at the combine and doing private workouts and other things with him so it's not like it's just one team that we're having an out for there's multiple teams that he's an out for in the first round.

Yeah. And like, I pay attention to like guys that are like projected in the late first, having 30 visits with early teams that based off mocks are out of their range, like the commanders, because they are having interest in trading back into the end of the first. But sorry, Nick.

Poor Nick. He's conceding mid-show about the jordan morgan just really going through it here in the comments uh yeah and arizona is another team to watch out specifically for jordan morgan so yeah you can see that too interesting all right um let's see here we got another one similar kind of vein rosengarden plus 475 first round pick with the Niners take him. I had him in my last mock draft reach out to some Niners people who are pretty well connected. And they said that that would be a massive, massive reach. So don't think. What's this last name is Tom.

What's the NFL guy? Tom P. Pesaro. Pesaro. Jesus. Thank you. He had his surprise first round piece yesterday, and I feel like he hits at least one of these every single year.

And he had Junior Colson, Keon Coleman. I think it was two. Keon Coleman. I think, who was the other two? Keon Coleman. God, let me look it up. But, like, the guys that have gotten first-round buzz weren't on that list. Like, the Nealins, Rosengarden, which they were, like, dock connecting with the Rosengarden out of the first round. But just, like, gets so tight at the end that it's just tough to find spots

for these long shots to hit. I think like the best long shots would be like one of the receivers going at the very end, whether it's to the Niners or Chiefs that we're not expecting. Leggett, Kingsley, Suamata. I mean, thank you. They're not really like a long shot. I mean, they were. They were not really – Sua Macaia. Like a long shot. Yeah, Sua. I mean, they were.

They were long shots at one point. And, man, Leguette is like one guy that, I mean, a week ago or two weeks ago, McShea was pumping him on the Rosillo pod. Then on the conference call, Jeremiah pumped him, like, I want to say like two or three times. And then, I mean, he's like literally saying that the Panthers are going to draft him in his interviews, which would be 33. Yeah, his over-under was like 41 and a half. And when that came out, it went down to 33 and a half, which is basically first round Panthers or bust.

And then he popped up on that list yesterday. So, like, the signals are definitely pointing in the Xavier direction of, like, going first as, like, used to be a long shot, really isn't anymore. That isn't being mocked whatsoever. The 41.5s were nice because the Panthers said at 33 and 39. So, yeah. And, like, I've just been staring at that over 33 and a half. We're like,

every single signal is telling you no, but at the same time, like in principle, it's like, come on, like, do we see him going first? And then that thing came out yesterday and all these,

him saying, we're going to the Panthers and you just can't, I can't at least. And then it was probably, it's probably going to be totally free money. He's going to go on the panthers and you just can't um i can't at least and then it was probably it's probably going to be totally free money he's going to go on like the 70s um but yeah kevin has a note here that uh dave canales has told 50 players that they could take that 33 so uh yeah yeah yeah the horn first i mean that is notable like that's like like teams tell agents and players all the time like hey we're taking you and then they just don't i mean usually it's all your stories all the time teams guys are mad like yeah yeah i'm more worried about it if i was

to bet the over i would be more worried of him going the first and like pick 33 um which i like think like the saints drill is way better bet to go 33 than him but yeah that makes sense um we got a fun one here is there any Shamil any bets you guys made that you regret at this point um for me it's probably only the Bowers at 12 and a half because the number moved against us and everyone just keeps steaming under so there's some 11 and a halfs out there 12 and a half is now like two to one uh and i think the 12 was a little bit more live than we initially anticipated so um we may make a little move there after the show um but yeah that's everything else looks good i like went through it all last night um i think we're in a pretty good spot with basically everything else vr any anything that you're good or you just i mean

absolute money this year so if you asked me last week i would have said i was nervous about the weight them under um which now that's kind of flipped on his face i would say probably out of all the overrunners xavier worthy is probably the over 29 and a half is the one i'm nervous about the most which is kind of part of the reason why i came in on the xavier to go before ad mitchell earlier today um but at the same time i think both can very well hit um but i don't i don't regret that bet but if i hadn't betted it i probably wouldn't be betting the over 29 today um yeah i mean i have a lot of bets it's tough yeah we got some ad mitchell questions too

here about like what do we do with him at 27 and a half it seems like really wide range of opinions on him because like there was obviously the mcginn stuff and you know there's been a couple of sharp people have said that he has like character issues you know i want to tend to not believe that but it seems like you uh bought in a couple other sharp people bought in um where shafter said he's gonna go top half the first round but that was like a month old at this point so um i don't know any any thoughts here on on mitchell or the 27 begin thing i'm not begin that like i've kind of i'm out on again. And I think it's like Mitchell is for me, betting the over was more about just alignment,

taking up the first round and going a lot earlier than we think they're going to push guys like the receivers back. And then if like Brian Thomas falls, he pushes him back where, I mean, I guess there could be value on the under 27 and a half quote unquote um i'm not in business really to bet value with the draft um other than like real big long shots but yeah i mean every signal right now is pointing to the over you could just be wrong um i think he

would have to go ahead of Brian Thomas, even Xavier Worthy to hit that under. Yeah, that makes sense. And then you're saying like Worthy going 15 right now to the Colts. Yeah. Which like, honestly, like guys like him, it wouldn't be shocking because he's fast guys just go way earlier than we ever project them to go. But I'd be shocked if I AD Mitchell went 15 15 but i wouldn't be shocked if worthy did yeah uh and then we got a question if colman goes

first round does that kill the under six and a half wide outs uh scott i think it probably does because it means we're probably getting the big four probably brian thomas and then one i mean you need two of still worthy ad mitchell and keon coleman hit seven so maybe not i don't know i mean that seems like it seems like so many there's just not any reputable information that i can find towards keon coleman going in the first round um i mean he's a big guy he didn't test well throughout this entire process um you have other other prospects like Xavier Worthy, for example, who has an elite trait in his speed that people are going to fall in love with. I think when it comes to specifically Coleman, he's going to have to be a very specific fit for a very specific team. And I just don't see that happening with some of the other wide receiver outs that they have to go before him. Yeah, that totally makes sense.

It looks like we're getting some mid show Dallas Turner first offensive players team here at bookmaker, which again, for those of you don't know, you know, bookmaker generally takes the most action. So people look to it as the, you know, one of the sharper books. So that's generally people view it as more efficient market minus 220 bookmaker i mean i don't know i'm going down from the ship here unless i hear otherwise uh you know and the one other thing that i was always smokes yeah the one other thing that i would suggest is that um with with a lot of these bets they fluctuated so much over the last couple weeks you probably just have sharp guys that are getting positive money on, on multiple different sides of that bet for first defensive player off the

board. So the lines fluctuated so much to where they could have good money on lots of good money on Turner and good money on, on Murphy to where, you know, when all their, all their bets are combined, they're going to come out positive one way or another.

Yeah. We got some more context here. Yeah. They're back down to minus one 62, taking 5k a pop again you know that's by far the biggest limits in the space so um but he's still over nine and a half minus 181 so yeah not doesn't seem like anyone like knows that the falcons or someone's like taking him uh you know for sure uh so the big the big issue with turner to the falcons that the argument

that's being made is specifically when you look at how many times those those edges have dropped back into coverage people are projecting that to be a very important trait for the the defense that Atlanta is going to be running and and my understanding is that Dallas Turner has it's something like 70 something more dropbacks in the coverage than what Latu or even have so that's the uh the big thing that has been connecting specifically Dallas Turner to Atlanta recently over a guy like Latu or over a guy like Verse or any of the other defensive players. Yeah.

Just before we came on, didn't Whale say that Bookmaker just pop stuff back up? So maybe some of this is fairly new to being available to Bookmaker in the last hour. Yeah, they haven't been very cooperative with letting people keeping stuff up. And I think people have just been waiting for it to pop up on Bookmaker for the day

because they take it down at night. Unless we have new reporting that I'm missing because we're doing a show. Yeah, I think the steam is definitely off of someone just waiting for them to pull it up. It's not like something just came out today. I'm guessing. Still have an overwhelming amount of mocks that are still kind of lagging

with Dallas Turner eight to Atlanta. So if you, you know, you're not super plugged in, you haven't been living and dying with some of these moves and news over the last month or so. You're just looking at kind of an aggregate of mocks of late Dallas Turner, eight Dallas Turner,

first defensive player off the board is still generally the consensus. So that could be dictating this move. For sure. And Travis brings up a good point here. Relative to the most betting markets is still very small. It's just still a very liquid market. Yeah, absolutely.

But I mean, when you're comparing it to like $200, I draftings is you know taking 50 50 100 bucks a pop sometimes fanduel maybe 200 on a you know some depending on what bet you're looking at so yeah it's like this is way bigger than you know anything we're man albright posted his uh mock depending on which charles davis is a great mocker i think uh i think his name is ben robinson who runs grinding the mocks yeah gave him a shout out for being like an elite mocker earlier this morning uh and charles davis excuse me charles davis um had a dunesay at 15 and i was just like skimming all rights mock it's like's like mad on him since sexting,

but he had a doomsday fine as well. Really? To where? Which is like, Charles Davis was the first mock I've seen him getting outside the top 10. And then Albright has him going 15 as well. I don't know if he's just copying Charles Davis or what, but I mean,

yeah, that's wild. I Davis or what, but I mean, yeah, that's wild. I mean, that is... I mean, Charles Davis is really the talking point having a dunes data 15. And I don't think in the context he said he was putting him there for a trade. Maybe he was just doing that, but I don't think Charles Davis would do that. Yeah, I mean, scenarios of a dunes egg falling like getting past the jets is wild to me where Davis had the jets taking I mean this is like a after the first few I mean whatever you can make whatever case I mean the bears trading down from nine and then passing on a dunes again at 14 is just yeah i mean i'm assuming these are like they're projecting the call to trade up for dunes i guess um to put him at 15

because him falling 15 would be wild albright's context is like the dunes a false stops here um but yeah wow wow i'm out on that. All right. Yeah. Yeah. It would have to be a trade-up. I just, I think any team that's going to go ahead and get a dunes, especially the Colts, who's drafting at 15, they're going to have to move up.

And they're one of the teams that have been rumored here recently to be calling around on the dunes. Yeah. Yeah. Anyway. He's not getting past the Bears at nine. can't you can't i don't believe that or jets at 10 i mean we know the jets absolutely love him too he's like very clear you know that they love him so yeah anyways we can just disregard 80 of that maybe he has a good

nugget about denver but uh i don't know all right just might be cooked um let's hear did you get any clarity from your since he soars for cornerback good barry on spaces did not commit to o-line d-line cornerback it's notable too good berries you know started off draft season with o-line in blood that was the quote uh and then his sense slowly capitulated a little bit and like put out some bets of like long shots of cornerback you know again like goodberry doesn't work for the team um but he generally is pretty plugged in vr any any thoughts there yeah i mean i'm on since you take a corner um i don't know if i went over this yesterday but i think i did um where like the two texts i got like basically we're like matching each other from a month ago, then a couple of days ago in terms of like them going corner.

And it was just too it was too specific or not to both of them to be valid. Nothing since. Honestly, I forget who it was. Someone was listening to some podcast or someone was like, oh, line. I feel like it felt like it was in blood for them. But I think it's like very dependent on who's there. So, I mean, I love Cincy Corner first, whatever the odds are, but nothing new to report.

Yeah. Okay, cool. I think that makes sense. Last one here. E. Cole over 12 and a half pack, 12 plus 170. I believe that includes Bo Nix and Michael Penix. So that's just for me. It just comes down to that.

So I'm kind of out on it, but, uh, you know, if you think they're going to go and don't hate it, I guess there's, you're providing yourself more outs there. Um, cool. Well, I think that's basically it. I think we answered a ton of stuff. Uh, and I think that went really well. So, you know, vr it's been real you know i appreciate you uh you know joining the crew for draft season here maybe we'll do some

enough some nba some mlb uh i definitely want to have an nhl show just so we can hear you on the same day nba and nhls are on the same day. What? NHL can't get out of their own way. I mean, they have to. I'm fairly sure NHL draft date. All the Russian names that VR is going to get to pronounce is going to be just, I mean, glorious. Like, it'll be so good. Yeah.

All right, excuse me. The NHL draft is the day after the nba so sick but still like we had a week in between last year for a second people want one more bet the people want more plays they want more picks the last bet um i liked over on sec players oh boom mic drop love it oh yeah i bet that a while ago and then on that too yeah i've been on it already so all right easy there's like a flat 10 on caesars that i think is cheap if it's still there that's what i bet a while ago i think i like negative clv on it too um but flat 10 feels like a better bet than land the juice on overnight.

Now. Yeah. Still, you know, you have access to fan duel. So you can still, this is one of those spots where you could throw in some of those big leg parlays with some spots.

I feel pretty comfortable around, you know, you know, alt go in top 10 Rome go in top 10, despite what Albright said, you know, Mims Cooper,ome going top 10 despite what albright said uh you know mims cooper dejean dejean uh newton guyton those are first round picks probably uh maybe not newton i don't know i'm back and forth on newton all the time but yeah i mean you can you can build out

some some pretty nice legs to get uh plus money on some parlays on FanDuel. So those are still in play. Good stuff as always. Appreciate you guys hanging out again. Jump into the discord. You want the, you know, we gave you the last play here. It doesn't mean there's not more plays coming out. You know what?

28 hours, 29 hours or so. 444.com slash plans. Promo code VR. Get the betting sub. Come hang out with us all football season. Subscribe to the channel. We back. We, you know know we do shows every week we just you know we won't have NFL draft to talk about we'll probably have a fallout show we'll continue to do content here every week we

take like a week off a year so uh for Connor Scott VR I'm Ryan we'll see y'all next week. Thanks, everyone.