Move The Line - Move The Line - Week 11 Betting Recap & Week 12 Early Predictions!

Episode Date: November 18, 2025

Join us as we analyze matchups, key stats, and betting lines to help you make the smartest picks for opening week. From underdog upsets to sure-fire favorites, we've got the insights you need to start your betting season strong. Don't miss out – subscribe now for your Week 12 betting guide and get ready to win big!If you want to check out SharpStack, you can get a 7-day Free trial at 4for4.com/plans. SharpStack subscribers get everything at 4for4, including all the picks from our staff, every article, and every tool for betting, DFS, and your fantasy leagues, as well. Promo code MTL is good for 25% off, so check it out today. Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome to move the line presented by Sharpstack. I'm Ryan Nudan joined here as always by Connor Allen. Connor, a busy, I don't know, 23-ish hours for you in the news cycle. A couple of public tweets have got a lot of attention. Anything you want to expand on in terms of the Caesar's saga. We touched on a little bit on Mayo. and see Connor's tweet and you have to Connor Allen NFL on the X machine. Yeah, I think you got done to anybody.

Yeah, I think like at the end of the day, I disagree with the ruling in general. And I also disagree with, I mean, the core thing, what I disagree with is that they don't have all their rules explicitly stated for every prop market. When I got in touch with the customer service representative, they said that they have too many props to post all their rules. Yeah, give 30 second recap for anyone who's, you know, maybe not an. X follower and missed kind of what happened here. Yeah.

So the quick recap is that Kevin Roth, who does a great job with the weather stuff, tweeted out like, oh, there's going to be some big wins in these four games. So, of course, I tried to find an angle with that. Previously in the season, I'd done like longest completion unders. This one, I did longest field goal under. So I did four different game longest field go unders. I played them solo. I parlayed them and round robin them.

The first two won. And then the third one in the Giants Packers game. was voided um and so i was like i reached up them was like why was this voided and they said because no field goal was attempted uh in the game and so i said okay well that's you know that that that's strange because that's not in your rules and it's not in um it's not when you finalize a bet and it's not in your bet slip or in the market like there's no like a little button that you can click that pops up with the rules in the market and so i was like okay well other books graded it as a win some some voided it though like draftsons voided it and but it's very

clearly in the bet slip it's like in the best slip right there yeah yep yeah huge and so i was like well and then i was like all right well let me do some actual research i like literally search caesar's house rules in illinois so i'm like combing through these pdf you know can i read through the whole thing didn't see it control aft with field goal read the old thing none of them control fg like maybe i was just like that nothing so i was like i triple checked my work um wasn't in there anyway so then they called me and they were like yeah we which is crazy that caesar actually called me i thought that was hilarious um and i'm just like are you sitting on the couch arguing with some guy and my wife is like who are you talking to like i'm like it's it's caesar's you know like it's his sports

on the phone he's probably just reading the book chilling out and what the heck's going on over here he's in the other room like she's in the bedroom and i'm like on the couch like all the way across my house you can hear me just like i mean i wasn't like being a dick to the guy but i was like i disagree with everything you're saying because what you're saying was like we have rules but they're not public and i don't have them ready to send to you or just i'm not going to send them me basically is what he said so um there's people i think the biggest takeaways for me is that i'm fine if that is the ruling on like just in general because i think that's like there are two very valid arguments of like of the

of the market i tend to agree that like it should be ruled as an under like no no no no kick no attempt nothing should be rules as under just like a longest reception uh in that market does like As long as a game is played, then it should count. Because it wasn't even a player prop. It's like a team prop. And I think you're in the same. 1,000%. I tailed and I bet it with that as an out, right?

Because the winds were swirling, we had like sustained wins where there was an opportunity where teams were simply declined to kick fuel goals, especially from any distance whatsoever. So to me, I felt like that was one of the outs now, semantics around zero versus undefined and like i got lost there in terms of like where the verbiage is in the same sentence just like you know i put the round you know the fastest on the wrong syllable yeah it's like longest field goal made uh which i i

fully disagree with that that's a little horseshit that's just like some galaxy brain nonsense uh from from these guys by the guy that got blocked me um the guy who said the big difference thing he started blocked me which i i was not even provoking him like honestly i was sick and tired of just like responding all these idiots so i'm like i'm done with this like you know yeah i was just like done with this i said but he blocked me anyways as i thought it was hilarious um it's been quite an interesting day because other people have talked about it um in other places online and um i think the core thing is like you if you're a book you need to have rules it needs to all be every market needs to be publicly you know available

to see and yeah it's just like crazy to me that that's a thing and then obviously my well you're all got denied um i'm going to try again today and do it again and see what happens like i didn't have any bonuses i didn't even any play through i don't know there was all my previous withdrawals had already been accepted and my husband accepted so i don't know there wasn't a good reason besides maybe they're just anatomy because i was being in it's a thousand percent why they're there had to be right it had to be right because anything you look at it from terms of why that would ever get denied would be some like KYC stuff you've already withdrawn from the book previously right like I don't know it's we have a ton of like options we have a ton of accounts and you know access in Illinois like

I have to be able to move money in and out to balance accounts or make this account heavier because I play more here where we have a market that I like and like we have to be able to like make that stuff flow like it doesn't make sense that you it's not your first withdrawal from from Cs that's why it's like so yeah it's it was crazy so either way yeah it's been, it's been a funny 24 hours. I thought that the, uh, the reaction to me, I think was most surprising. Honestly, so many people agreed with the book and thought that it's like, quote, common sense that it says, because it says longest feel goal made. In my opinion, you're just kind of like, if, if your argument is common sense, then you're just telling yourself you don't

really bet that much because longest reception also implies that a reception has to be made as well, but void, but is not voided on a zero. It's an under is a win on a zero. So like, I don't know. And a lot of it's the old heads because like the PPHs and stuff, always voided on those it's a lot of just that it's a lot of old head it's size in total only you know probably that's exactly what i was going to say it's they turn their nose on prop betters anyway right just you know just regurgitated fantasy bros right like they have no actual concept of like any nuance in that and again i made the analogy too like why would you not want to cape up for the betters right like i feel like if you just want to argue semantics again

it's like the argument of like just I'm going to go over to the casino and just stand next to the guy just I'm next to the dealer and cheer for the house like they should be also pointing out the fact that like they were not really clear at all with the rules and the answer that we have them and we don't share them publicly and I'm not even going to share them by request is completely unacceptable in any way shape or form and how that's not a part of anyone's like caveat to the argument of zero versus undefined garbage was a complete miss like i was getting really pissed reading the comment section that you're tweeting so who are these people like what is this like i don't know i won i bet it on a different book yeah cashed them all and i won so i feel

bad it was a great look like i was looking at the weather too and i'm like oh man this is a problem how can we figure this out like where can we attack and i like the field goal look i'm like oh that's great i'm like i don't tell that because i've sometimes i'm like oh watch that and then at the end of the day, you got that big-ass ticket. I got phone mo because they missed down. I'm like, I'm on this now. It's a great angle. Angle shooting Connor Allen.

I'm going to get in there and bet it. Also, that was the most ridiculous comment of all of them was some bro saying, if I was the book, I'd instantly cut your account, limit you to $5 for angle shooting and the whatever else he said. Angle shooting. What the hell are we doing? Isn't everything that I'm trying to do here, angle shooting? If you're betting sides and totals, you're angle shooting. If you do not have an angle, go save yourself a shit ton of time and just go bet on red or black, right?

Like, then you have no angle. You just want to bet. You got a thirst for gambling. Like, I don't have a thirst for gambling. I want to win. I want to have an edge. I want an angle shoot. That's crazy.

It's funny, too, because I'm like, I had to look it up. And I'm like, what is like, maybe there's an other term of like angle shooting. So I'm like looking at this. I was saying using unethical or deceptive tactics to gain. It's a weather report. Like, I am, I quit. quote tweeted Kevin Roth, who's like the most popular fantasy weatherman in the space. And these, like, he's been tweeting about it for like a couple of days.

And so I was like, okay, well, like the passing yards market for Baker and Josh Allen went down like 30 yards each. Yeah, absolutely crazy amount. A bunch of anguishers. Yeah. It's just, you know, that, that angle shooting, you know, is just like so, so deceptive. It's, to me, it was crazy. I thought it was, I mean, that was a ridiculous comment too.

And it's like, I'm never going to forget it. It's like burned into my soul. Like, I just, I couldn't. angle shooting like I just yeah we're trying to find an edge man like we're trying to find an edge like I mean yeah there's other arguments too with this like I I I generally am of the opinion that like just take them for whatever they're worth they post the market they should they should be held liable for taking action on the market unless it's just a pure pure mistake like the total is 48 and half and it's four and a half or something like that like like sure yeah you can void that or whatever

but like you post a prop that's like a real prop then you should take action on it and like I don't know and have rules defining it rules defining it yes if you make a mistake we should not like reach out to you to let you know that this is a mistake right then you decide as you're part of your business you then want to limit my action in the book that's a choice that I have to make and knowing that that's within the range of outcomes that's fine but like this isn't an unethical angle shooting this is literally like if you were not factoring weather into your handicap betting sides and totals like you're also not angle shooting like what the hell are you doing like i respect your opinion even less i don't know it was wild yeah and i mean my my last thing here too is like you mentioned it's

like the people commenting like that it was common sense or whatever were the exact same people that were like uh like the people who say you're not betting you're not winning the right way like you're not winning like you know like there's like a segment of people on gambling Twitter, who are like, if you're not, you know, bend sides and totals, like a real man, you know, like, it's kind of like that whole, like, mojo. I just like to win. Money's green, you know, like, it's, it's fine. Again, the ruling is whatever, like, at this point, it wasn't really that much money.

And, like, I don't even use Seizers that much because they've already bricked my account halfway anyways. Like, I don't know. I mean, the start of the season, it was like 50 bucks a pop, I could get down, you know? Then it, like, moved back up and then it moves back down. It's happening, like, a couple of other accounts. It's like completely oscillates randomly. And so, yeah, it's just been total mess.

I was like, all right, I'm just going to leave a little money in there in case I can, I don't know, in case I can jam something else. But like I'm going to withdraw the majority of my money to take my action elsewhere. Yeah. It's the right call. Just again, put it in a hyper, put it in a big ass PDF file, hyperlink it on your site. Or don't. But when someone requests it, you have the ability to send it.

Denying you that information. and with like a trust me bro response is just like a bad way to do business your your seizure sports you're big it's a big international company completely unacceptable yeah just just focus so thanks i got a 12-1 winner so i appreciate you and i'm sorry it's uh i got some i had some people get like you know i got down enough on the solo so it made up for all this stuff so it ended up being still being a good being a good day that's honestly it's probably why i'm not so mad about it is like this result was not super consequential and everything like I've had it a couple of times elsewhere and so it's fine but I'm just like again I just think it's something like the principle of it is just like

totally not to make we have to make a Robinhood situation here but like we do have an audience we do have subscribers that like pay for our services and our information and did tail the bets and like at the end of the day if someone with a smaller account you don't have much of a following on on Twitter or social whatever and they make that stink and probably nothing happens right to fart in the wind but you do have an audience and you kind of did have a little bit of a responsibility to stand up a little bit for the subscribers and I think that's what your intentions were if it maybe it was just you I think you still probably have to out of principle like stand up a little bit to say yeah this is a problem but because we also had subscribers that were

you know get caught up as well because they you know maybe they didn't round rob and maybe they embed it independently and they just lost out on it it's not fair again if it's real rules that's fine but you didn't ever show them that's not cool yeah crazy all right check out sharp stack four four four dot com slash plans new suite of betting tools free seven day trial if you want a discount code hit us up i'll let us know lots of different ways to get down here and join us let us take a quick look at some of the games i want to talk about futures a little bit more today we get some of your you know bigger takes obviously it's some big games in the late window um you know some of the early stuff It's actually a really good, exciting football in the late, in the early window, surprisingly.

Like sometimes the early window is a bunch of stinkers, but we had, you know, but OT with the, you know, game in Spain. And then a bunch of like late final drive type deciding stuff in the early window. And then the late window, the Niners kind of rolled, but then, you know, the Rams and Seahawks was a close game. You know, Baltimore or Cleveland was a lot closer than I think we were expecting. And obviously the Denver, Kansas City game came down to the very end as well. And again, one score game on Sunday night football. well so you know pretty good you know week 11 slate overall or some of uh i guess you know a big takeaway or anything you want to highlight here off the top yeah i wouldn't say that

anyone uh like changed too much in kind of like my opinions here i mean we're obviously a bunch in so we're working with a bigger sample size here uh i mean the bears win over the vikings that continue to win one score games in crazy fashion um Caleb plays he's been playing fine like it's like you know very uneven continues to be uneven now again this is a tough I saw somewhere he was blitz like 78% of the time or something like they're ridiculous, which, I mean, makes sense. Just like bring it and. It was part of my handicap too.

It was part of my handicap on the rushing is we have this weird trend that seems like it's something to me that Flores slow rolls a little bit in the division on the first matchup and then just absolutely brings the house in the second matchup. It's happened the last two years significantly more. Every game in the division, he had at least a 12% higher pressure rate in the second meeting than the first meeting. And that first meeting back in week one was the lowest blitz rate of the Vikings battle season. And he turned the dial here in week 11. Would, um, are you worried at all about J.J. McCarthy? It was not a good showing. Yeah. I think you

have to be. I mean, this is, this is a bad bear's defense. They're aggressive. They are opportunistic. Like, I mean, even on the jet the near game winning touchdown to Jordan Addison, like, the guy was kind of going for the pick instead of like trying to knock it down. Um, and so I mean, he's just not playing all that well right now with a good set of weapons and a good running game and a good coaching staff and like it's concerning now again it's early it's like you know I tried to avoid making judgments on Caleb Williams early last season um but he had a couple more excuses I think than JJ so JJ's got to probably mature quicker and figure it out fast otherwise the Vikings I mean the Vikings season is basically over at this point four and six that loss is like

a dagger I think right now to be on it's yeah that's done so they really have to get an understanding of is this can you just don't get a long leash these days in the NFL um so just a matter of at this point do we have to bring in competition next year or as crazy as that sounds like if he if there's any play that kind of if it continues like it was on Sunday uh then you have to actually look to see if do we like enter camp with a veteran that we'd be okay winning the job type of situation right like for sure i think they have to like yeah have to bring in someone that like could i mean i think they're going to have jj that probably have a camp battle honestly depending on all the rest of the season goes if it's really bad or if it's

like this uh they're going to probably have a camp battle whatever and if he gets out played he gets outplayed like that's just it um because then at that point we're two plus years in so it'd be his third year uh and you got to make quick decisions like this roster is built to like compete is now you know like be a fringe competitor and if he's not providing what it takes then i think you got to move on yeah that's it's tough I think, Sam Donald didn't look great. You know, you let up on Sam Donald and could have had that. I think you could have had a scenario where if Carson wants was healthy,

he could have maybe come in into that game. Now, again, they did come back and actually take the lead, right? We needed the last second field goal for the Bears to win. But it wasn't necessarily because we saw a sudden flip of great play from J.G. McCarthy. Like just clean pocket inaccuracy. And that's really like the lowest hanging fruit, right? That's, that's the Anthony Richardson of it all, right? Anthony Richardson stuff that got really hard for me as he,

as Anthony Richardson stand was like, he was inaccurate in the clean pocket. So like that's a telltale sign, right? You want to try to find guys that can, you know, that's the layup of it all at the quarterback position in the NFL. And yeah, I think there's like a sense of like him having to prove that there's arm strength there because everything's kind of Uncle Rico. It's a lot of just absolute get on that back foot and chuck it. Yeah, it's like there.

it's yeah there's just a lot of misfires i really part of why i really like justin jefferson is he doesn't seem to have that wide receiver one diva like stomping back to the sidelines and all these other things that we typically see from some of the premier wide receivers he looked visibly frustrated in this game which is tough um it seems like it's hard it takes it longer for him to get there than others and he's he seems kind of there already stuff uh what are they doing this week they are on the road in green bay uh six and a half six point favorites I mean Green Bay is another team it's really hard for me like I feel like we thought our Green Bay Super Bowl stuff was cooking after week two part of it was the defense was awesome

yeah and they had so many outs in terms of how they were going to be able to score offensively where it might have been a little bit of a challenge from like a prop bang or a fantasy standpoint but like it didn't really matter like they had a bunch of weapons and now it feels like and take away Tucker craft now we take away Josh Jacobs for a while the offensive of lines have been a disappointment. It was a tough scenario. They were real wins, swirling wins. And when they win so much vertically,

there were some not great football to be played there, but they dropped a ton of, they could have actually won that game by a lot more than seven. They dropped like three or four picks. Could have had a full-on James experience here, but there are a bunch of Green Bay interception drops in that one. Any thoughts on that or anything else you want to talk, John, before we jump into some of the future?

I mean, the Packers let the Giants run 70 plays, basically, 69 plays. the Giants ran the ball like 35 times, something like that. 38 times total. So, yeah, we're going to get some, I mean, not hopefully, but I think we might get another James game. Who do they play? Who do the Giants play this week? The Lions could be a fun James game.

I mean, just tailing the whole time, trailing and just chucking it. I mean, I wouldn't hate that. But, yeah, I mean, with the wins and everything, I don't think he was going to be Jordan Love's best game. We got injured two mid-game. We saw Malik Willis for a couple of snaps who played pretty well. was honestly just kind of running and you know running and shooting out there so i thought that was that was interesting josh jacobs as you mentioned got hurt as well touch you out some time so yeah when

you're running out of like they already didn't really have like a guy you know what i mean and i would say josh jacobbs was closer to you know a guy for them like a key figure now you're looking at like you know romeo dobbs christian watson and matthew golden is continues to be like a sum of parts receiving room that's fine they're not like bad they're just they don't have someone that you can rely on, I think, if you need a big play, basically, no matter what. Yeah, I agree. I mean, it's a bad giant secondary.

They were able to take advantage. But, yeah, it's just, it hurts their ceiling, right? When you had the run after the catchability of craft and then healthy shakeups that, you know, can really handle, you know, solid 18 to 20 backfield carries efficiently, you know, rushing yards above expectation type of stuff, it feels like they're going to be without for a little bit. This is a really tough week for quarterbacks.

Quarterbacks injured all over the place. Bryce Young got injured and left the game. I don't think he actually left the game, but hobbled off multiple times. On the same game, Michael Pennix got injured. We had what felt inevitable with the Chargers offensive line where Justin Herbert got absolutely pummeled. That was a bad Chargers loss, like 35 to 6 against Jacksonville.

And again, it was more of the same from Trevor Lerbush. Lawrence again they won 35 to 6 when I want to dunk on Trevor Lawrence Lawrence he wasn't good again I hated myself because I was mad because I wanted to bet Trevor Lawrence unders and they all came in he was terrible I mean injuries to Aaron Rogers we don't know if we're gonna have CJ Stroudback it was kind of a rough quarterback injury week so it's gonna really impact the week 12 slate again the markets are not afraid to post these lines and you know even though we have some ambiguity around the quarterback position heading into the week,

which is interesting. We have had a little bit of a flipping with the Falcon Saints game because now it feels definitely are going to be without Pennix. So there's a Kirk Cousins game, and now you have a Saints team basically favored across the board one, one and a half in some spots. Didn't think the Saints would be favored in any more games this year, but here we are. No, yeah. And I mean, well, they're problematic too because the Saints can stop the run reasonably well,

and the Falcons can't do anything but run the ball at this point. Especially with Kirk, no Drake London, Darnal-Muni just seemed like he's still recovering from an injury. So, I mean, it's a tough game now. We're 38.5 point total. It's going to be a really, really ugly one there specifically. But there are some other interesting ones there with, like, you mentioned the Texans, bills, like with Stroud probably out. Bills are four and a half point favorites.

Like, if he's for sure out, does that climb up to? like six i mean yeah i i don't know i don't know what to make of of buffalo the texans i think actually like with cedish trout and fully healthy would would kind of be a decent matchup against the bills because they can not they can run the ball but they like to run the ball uh and so like i think buffalo is you know getable on the ground as we've seen in the last couple weeks here so like if they were able to run the ball and the texans defense is really good uh that's like so i mean that's like the type of underdog win that like can upset the bills in my opinion but i don't know i mean davis mills he sucks yeah yes need to find out what's going on with stroud there too um rams seeox

takeaways uh do you have anything there 21 19 rams win um it came down to the end where we had you know made field goal timeout missed field goal situation despite for sam donald interceptions is pretty pretty wild i mean this is the worst game sam donald played since like the late two-week window right in in in Minnesota playoff game against the Rams which hit me like right in the face as soon as this game started I'm like oh yeah how did I miss that yeah I mean I think that it feels like Sam Donald's like kind of I don't know of a head case the right word but like he's very mentally like when things are going bad things are just like really really bad you know like he can't get out of his own way

and things are going well like he's a good quarterback he's plenty of arm strength the armed talents why he went so high in the draft like he can make all the throws just a matter of like keeping it simple for him and not overcomplicating it we talked about in the mayo show he had literally a jump past interception where he was like you know he threw like a short stop and then like got picked it looked completely ridiculous this is not a good game but i mean the seahawks team still almost won that's like the thing is like yeah and adam's mentioned in the chat here four interceptions and still had a chance to win so like that's a great sign of a team that is an awesome genuinely the awesome team.

And so they kept getting dealt short fields because of these interceptions. Like my takeaway, this is, you know, again, in hindsight, it looks not as great. But like when we had the Kansas City and Bill's game, the Bill's won a couple weeks ago, I felt still felt good about the Chiefs. But I feel even better about the Seahawks. Like, this is a legit defense. Someone who was like trying to, you know, I bet a bunch of Seahawks tackles in this game. They were never on the field.

like the time of possession was dominant they put up a graphic at one point in like between like the late first quarter and half time or so it was like 21 minutes to three minutes time of possession on the ram side like Seattle just couldn't they were so good they just returning them over three and out or like the short field touchdowns and yeah I'd be encouraged if I was Seattle obviously you know you need the quarterback to be dialed in a little bit more than he was but overall defense is absolutely legit yeah 100% I think they're I mean still a competitor just I'm not really sure there's wait to buy low on them in the market right now 7 and 3 lost the Rams like the that obviously they play them again I think in a couple weeks right like two weeks they get to play them again so that would be big if they can win that but it seems like a tough ask right now for the division Stafford also is the MVP favorite at this point which was very interesting considering you didn't play all that well and then just because they won is now the favorite yeah we'll get to some of that for sure uh denver kansas city feel different about

any uh those either of those teams i mean nine and two denver um defense is legit they just they played cover two deep and really allowed mahomes to do whatever he wanted internally again another spot where um they had shifted from man heavy to a very zone heavy defense with certan on a lineup And just had the Chiefs dink and dunk them, and they kind of did, but it wasn't really enough to get it done. Do you feel differently about either the Broncos or the Chiefs? No, I mean, I think the Broncos has continued to be like a tough matchup for a team like the Chiefs who, you know, want to skew pass, Abby. The Broncos have a great pass defense. And then, like, I mean, yeah, the Chiefs ran the ball 13 times with Kareem Hunt.

But Kelsey kind of got going as one of his best games of the season. like you said, kind of dinking and dunking their way through it. Broncos' offense looked a little bit better, I guess. Like, I mean, they still couldn't run the ball, two point eight yards per carry there. But at least Bo, like, connected on some longer throws, hit Pat Bryant for deep, hit Troy Franklin for deep. It's, I mean, I'm not ready to, like, forgive them for the first 10 or 11 weeks of offense here. They still only scored 22 points, but it looked a little better, at least than before. I mean, not a ton, but, you know, it was at least a lot.

moved the ball somewhat they have a really nice position obviously where they are at in the division and having um you know the one more meeting between those two but having you know a leg up on the head-to-head matchups and that's kind of kansas city's problem right now is that they've they're basically they've lost a lot of these games two teams that are competing with them for the back end of the a fc playoff pitcher right where like jacksonville wins they're now in a spot where you know they're actually six and four ahead of the chiefs and they have the heads up against the chiefs there's a bunch of these scenarios where the chiefs are a little bit in trouble

you know brian in the chat that the chiefs are washed I mean I couldn't disagree more I just don't really think that the would be prisoner of the moment and I'm not going to take anything really away from that game

they're competitive you know any read off a buy it's not something we historically have seen right it's been a really good spot for them chief schedule is still pretty soft in terms of where they are. It's a big one coming up this week against the Colts. But Colts, and then you got Dallas, Houston, Chargers, Tennessee,

they host Denver, and then they go on the road to the Raiders. So not a real daunting schedule. And again, you touched on it earlier today too. They're now 10 to 1 to the Super Bowl, which is just really weird to see, you know, them with double digits. So maybe I'm just a sucker for this. Like I think there's going to be some matchups where like all systems go. Like, my homes was fine.

They missed on some deep balls. And they, I think, scheme them pretty well. Do I think that they're like, this should be the clear favorites to win the Super Bowl? No, but do I think that we should count out Kansas City from being the AFC representative? in the Super Bowl again? Absolutely not. No one should. They are definitely squarely in play to run the table here and goes for the

I mean, it's going to be really tough. And I mean, so you're going to get a lot of narratives too at this AFC playoff race of one of these high seeds, Broncos, Patriots, Colts, probably playing against a team like the Ravens or Chiefs in like early, like one of their, I don't always forget, divisional round games probably. at one of those two teams. Yeah, wild card weekend, for sure, yeah. Yep.

I mean, that's just brutal. Like, they're not going to be favored by much. Like, they're going to be favored by, like, maybe, I don't even know they're going to be favored. Like, would you put the, I mean, like, assuming all health continues here for, like, the Ravens or the Chiefs, Colts at home, like, divisional round, two and a half point favorites? No, I don't think so.

I think it's like. Yeah, I think it would be even. Yeah. And again, we'll get a taste of it this weekend. I think how that goes is a really impactful game, you know, for the Chiefs. But, yeah, I just don't sleep on them. They're fine. It can be okay.

Yeah. Defense still good. Playoffs are going to be interesting in the AFC because you're going to have some really good road teams, like you said, in those divisional rounds where, you know, we can get a scenario where if the Patriots do win the AFC East, you know the bills push themselves down right then the all of some bills are a five seed right so you know adam's in the chat yeah uh raven's bills right so the ravens win that division they're going to be the worst record in the afc divisional winner so the ravens become the four seed and then the bills are the five right so buffalo's got to go uh to baltimore in the wildcard

weekend right like crazy we thought that was going to be the a fc championship game possibly right so totally yeah it gets it gets interesting and in the beginning you know that makes the race for the top seed with these three teams right now with the patriots broncos and colts even more impactful right because you're basically fighting to dodge the chiefs in a way right you know or like whoever becomes second you end up playing the colts so like getting at one scene the afc becomes i think really important obviously get the buy you obviously get home field advantage but you also probably end up avoiding Kansas City in round one. So really, really, really impactful stuff here moving forward.

Yeah, the playoff race can be awesome. Again, I'm like, I don't think that there's a ton of actional stuff in terms of like what the spreads are going to be or anything look at like that. But I would say, like, just take stabs on one of these other teams to win the Super Bowl because I think that when all you need to do is the chiefs or the bills or the Ravens to make the playoffs. And then they're squarely live. And I would say as good, if not better than a lot of these teams at the top,

which may not always be accurately priced in. into the odds, it certainly is more than public sentiment, that's for sure. Like public sentiment's like, oh my God, the two seed patriots are going to lose to the seven seed, you know, whatever, like so and so. And like, yeah, like that or whatever, you know, like something like that. Like we're going to get all the crazy, you know, cringe media like biggest upset ever. And it's going to be like the spread's going to be even, you know, but like, you know, but, you know, I think from the futures market, I think that makes sense with Super Bowl stuff or like

conference stuff. Yeah. Yeah. All right, any of the week 12 You know, early lines jump out to you And then we can touch on futures and wrap Our guy Hunter played Seahawks over the Titans Like minus, I don't know, what, 11 and a half, 12 and a half

12 and a half, yeah, I got in on that too Yeah, I mean Still some Fandual 120 Just a really tough match of this Titan team Calvin Ridley for whatever he mattered was carted off, I think Or was, you know, didn't look good Shremani Dike as well, dinged up It is like the Van Jefferson show

it's going to be Gunner Helm and Chikwanku, like it's going to be real tough for them to move the football. I don't know what Cam Ward's passing yards are going to be at, but 150 might still be taking the under. I mean, I'm not going to lie. It's just tough. I don't even think Cam's, I mean, Cam hasn't played well, but he has no options, no coaching, no line. Like, I mean, what are you going to do? Yeah, that's a, that's a rough spot.

Yeah, I thought the Saints are going to be interesting as you know a home dog um against the falcons because i saw enough of the falcons to be like man this is also another spot where it just feels like some egregious coaching decisions there's bad quarterback play and now it's kirk and again now we've lost the the plus money well i will say pinnacle still plus one uh you know saints small small home dog uh minus 117 some other places have have cooked out a little bit oh fandul still plus one and a half minus 115 so Saints are interesting I think the Rams are also pretty interesting

against Tampa Bay But again, just some injury news That I want to see here a little bit I'll be happy to take You know, see if there's any positive Colts momentum If we can get the Chiefs at home at less than three Not there yet But there are some threes and maybe moving that way

That we've gone down from three and a half And from the open And should the bears be More than two and a half Or three point favorites at home? against, no, not against Mason Rudolph and the Steelers. I guess true with Mason. Well, yeah, we're probably going to get Mason, right?

Like, I mean, it looks like Rogers is like a, what do they say, like cracking his hand or something or wrist or something. It's like, yeah. I mean, he's not, he's not all that good anyways at this point in his like time. Man, I don't know. It's Mason Rudolph against like this Bears team that's just like, I would assume they're just going to blitz him like the whole game and just, you know, make his life tough.

Now, they'd be excited with your D.K. Maccalf, like, he was probably going to catch a long one on him or two, but Mason Rudolph sucks, too. They might have Jaylon Johnson back. The Bears might get Jalen Johnson back this week. That would be huge. Jalen Johnson would be massive. I mean, that's the bull case for the Bears long term, honestly, is that they, their secondary gets healthy, and then their defense isn't really that bad. Yeah. Because Kyler Gordon's also IR, but not season-ending I are. Right. Like, that's, if they can squeak into the playoffs, so, like, I don't know if they're going to, like, make a run, but win a game, maybe. I mean, like, that's, like, possible. But because then, you know, now they're the point, we looked at this early in the season with the Bears.

They, like, couldn't run the ball. Their defense sucked and Caleb wasn't good enough. Now they're at the point where they can run the ball, kind of. Their defense still sucks, and Caleb's playing a little bit better. So it's like their, if their defense is healthy, though, and is that in like, I don't even know, league average or at least can, like, slow the bleeding a little bit, then you're in a good spot where the Bears like,

okay, they can maybe, you know, compete with some good teams now if Caleb plays a really good game. Yeah, we, seven and three they are you know leaders in that division they could lose the rest of their games on their schedule like it's a tough schedule and i don't mean that like to take a shot at the bears at all pittsburgh game obviously gets easier because of the injury and now you don't have aaron rogers again just been playing decent this year but then you go after the pittsburgh game at philly at green bay home to cleveland which again they're solid favorites and look at markets

there and deservedly so right we don't cleveland's quarterback situation could be a mass we don't even know who that could be um then after on the other side of that their final three green bay san francisco detroit right the Detroit game now obviously without a doubt becomes one of those week 18 games that's going to matter right i can't imagine a scenario where you know Detroit is is punting on week 18 because they've solidified anything at this point so it would have to be like they're locked into like the three two or three seed basically it would have to be something like that yeah which i think it's still possible i don't know all the outcomes but like if like the bears keep losing they keep winning which i think is possible

but yeah i would say significantly heightens the chance that it's like a a real game for them yeah chicago's one game ahead of them and then you have the half game that the packers are ahead of them technically right because of the tie so um you know the lions are in third place currently in the division so yeah those those just get really tough for the bears down the stretch, you know, and a bunch of those, you know, the back-to-back road games, Philly, Green Bay. Tough, tough. The Spitzburg games becomes, you know, even more important for the Bears. Every time we bring it up, though, I got to, you know, I got to say it's going to be awfully chilly.

You know, it's going to be a cold game. It's in Chicago. So I will say if there were ever time to play Detroit at home, it'll be like first week of January. I mean, it doesn't get much better than that. If you are, plus fully, fully or more healthy you in the secondary, like. dial me up a golf under you know this is uh this is what james you made of it was disastrous last night yeah oh it's it wasn't even it was like 44 too i mean not that it was warm but it wasn't like the you know we like the line of demarcation for golf viability right like at freezing or

whatever you want to call it usually yeah and i guess we have to move the line up a little bit now it's like you know 45 uh because it was rough it was so lec tweeted out that like it's 60 degrees or under he like he completes under 59% of his is like 59% of his past something like that um 60's not even cold i mean this is like like like 50 is not cold 40 is not cold like like freezing is really not even that cold either like if you're like warm it's like really when he gets into like the teens that's like oh yeah yeah which is very squarely in play for this week 18 game for sure and look you know the eagle's defense deserves their flowers here right they were the antagonizers in this, right, deflected a bunch of balls.

You know, the Jaylon Phillips acquisition is massive. You know, they have now, you know, a group of pass rushers, both edge and interior. They have two outstanding elite all-pro corners, right? Adori Jackson is still someone that you can exploit if the quarterback has time. But Cooper to Jean and Quinnion Mitchell are fantastic. so they deserve credit again they get Colby Dean back who's a dog I mean literally Georgia Bulldog

but also like playing really good ball so like they're they're trending in the right direction so these are some credit it wasn't all just cold weather but it was it was bad golf um it was one of those situations is someone who was rooting for some James Alts I was sweaty James got there but uh it was

yeah what did James finish with like 80 something I took I got plus 204 for 75 plus so nice Sunday nice capital yeah uh all right uh yeah really the bell of the ball is the Colts and Chiefs in uh in week 12 we have a just abysmal afternoon slate um go touch some grass you know on Sunday afternoon jags cards browns raiders eagles cowboys yeah it's okay It better be okay, right? If it's not, then Falkan Saints.

So tough. Might just take a nap. Yeah, I mean, considering we've got some bangers this past week with, you know, you know, Ram, Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs, and the other games were, you know, somewhat entertaining. This is a little tougher. So no more Justin Fields for you either, Connor. I'm sorry.

I know. I mean, we need to pour one out for Justin. I mean, just kept making us money, making more and more money. like every time I bet on this guy made me money, whether it was unders or overs. We timed the one over week, or not the one over week, but like, you know,

the Cincinnati game played in some of them in DFS. I bet some overs on rushing passing combined that all hit. And I still think that, honestly, I bet that he makes another start this year. I would bet that he'll come back in. Like, Tyrod's going to be probably really bad at some point, too, and then maybe they'll bring it back in.

So we'll see. Turns out Tyrod is just not. very good either so we should not be surprised all right let's take a look at some future stuff here um you're gonna access this here little futures betting table over at four for four i could see the eagles uh again depending on your book the rams on draft kings are the favorite uh some other spots where the eagles are the favorite so those are your you're one and two you know it looks like you know could be a interesting rematch of a good playoff game that we saw there there last year bills are your aFC favorite currently

again shop around plus 850 is the best to again to win the Super Bowl Chiefs there as far as 1050 on Caesars again Connor cannot take that action it's not a principle but you know it's out there for others Colts a little bit behind them

this Patriots disrespect is just unbelievable I see the Lions Seahawks Ravens Broncos then the Patriots 17 the 1 on Fandle is the best price for the nine into New England Patriots who are, I don't know if they're good, Connor. They're good.

I know that they beat up on the Jets, but yeah, that's tough. It's disrespectful. I mean, I think the Patriots are fine. They're definitely a good team. I just don't know if like, I mean, but the market reflects that. Like, it's like, you're not like, I mean, me saying like, oh, I don't think the Patriots are that good. Like, yeah, they're the 10th team or whatever in, in likelihoodness to win the Super Bowl

according to the Super Bowl market. So like, I think that's more than fair, if not probably. like you know like i think that they could beat the majority of teams ahead of them uh in a one game sample like you could certainly beat the seahawks broncos ravens if they don't their defense doesn't continue to get it like better um they could easily win one of those games yeah i do find it to be a little bit disrespectful that they are that far behind like the colts for instance but um that's okay they got to do in the field and um again i've touched on this too i just don't know what the colts marquee wins are that are like so significantly better than

and, you know, New England going into Buffalo and Tampa Bay and winning, whereas there's, you know, concerns or, you know, I guess fair to question what happened with the Broncos game back in week two. And then like their signature win is now that they beat the Chargers without Joe Altz and some other guys, like, I don't know, that's their best win on the schedule. Yeah, I mean, we'll see. We'll find out a little bit this week against the Chiefs. So that's kind of where I think you would cut it off.

Again, there's a pretty big line here from the Packers down to the Niners, who, again, should make the playoffs because, again, they have an easy schedule and they have a bunch of wins already. They just continue to lose impactful starters every week. Tana Bethune now going to be out for a little bit of times. We've been playing good ball, filling in for Fred Warner. Just complete back-to-back seasons from hell from an injury standpoint for the Niners and stuff. Let's see here.

AFC prices. Bill's your favorite. Colts kind of tied. depending on the book, Chiefs, a little bit further behind, plus 550 on Draft Kings is the best number. Again, Mark, it will tell you, despite the Broncos being 9 and 2 and having beat them, that it is equal, or the Chiefs are ahead of that, then you get into the Ravens and Patriots. So again, Patriots, 6th best odds to win the AFC, and then that's kind of where the line is to, where you jump down to, Chargers, Jags, any anything that jumps out to you here in terms of value, anything you like?

Well, this is pretty crazy to me that, like, you have, six teams all priced between four to one and like whatever seven to one is the highest not the Patriots and like after that's 20 to one and all the other teams like they just like don't care about anyone else yeah but I do think yeah chiefs is not a bad look ravens is six plus 650 is not a bad look I think both those are two interesting teams here other than that I'm not going to buy the bills his favorites I mean we just walked through the literally realistic scenario of Ravens bills four or five matchup I don't want to be holding a bill's ticket at four to one as like buying it the current favorite if they have to play the Ravens

and then probably the Chiefs or Patriots or something like that. You know what I mean? Like this is it's not where I would want to be. The problem for the bills is that they're getting, like, I still have questions about the secondary, but like again, gashed on the ground. Gashed in the ground. So bad. So Colts match up and Ravens matchup in particular are just really, really bad draws

for Buffalo. You need to have a better than expected performance slowing those rushing attacks down, and you need Josh to play absolutely insane hero style ball like we saw this week, which he did. Like, it's tough. It's tough. Just the margins are so thin in the playoffs. These are better football teams that are going to be more prepared. So I don't think it's a scheme situation.

I think Terrell Bernard and linebackers hurt. It's been really bad this year. But teams are just running clear, like just yards before. contact is just so massive you see like like giants ask you're getting guys running two yards on average before getting touched before getting the second level like there's no penetration yeah it's it's bad so i'd be concerned about holding those those bills tickets as well uh pivot to the nfc eagles uh at the top uh being short across the board uh they're the best um your leader you can see some describe it's price wise rams seahawks lions lions lions lions lions lions lions lions lions lions lions lions lions lions lions lions lions lions lions lions

on the Packers before you kind of get to a price breakdown to the Bucks and Niners. Any thoughts here? I mean, Bears 35 to 1. No, I'm just kidding. I think these. But it's fair, right? So you're a bear's fan and you're drinking the Kool-A and you're 7 and 3 and, like, good for you. Like, again, we are local to Chicago.

Neither of us are, you know, both transplants. We are bears adjacent, but we are not necessarily card-carrying members of the monsters of the Midway. And we want them to be good. It's good for the city. It's been real bad for, you know, a city that loves football so much. It's just been bad for, you know, 60 years, really, with a couple of pop glimpses. Pretty much.

That's it. No team in the history of professional sports has got more juice out of the squeeze than the 85 bears. Like, this city loves that team. Still. Still, like, loves that team who probably should have won multiple Super Bowls. They did not even go to multiple Super Bowl. But again, like to be a winner in Chicago carries a lot of weights, they're desperate for it. But this is the market kind of telling you where they really are in the hierarchy,

the fact that there are, again, seven teams ahead of you. And again, there are only seven teams that make the playoffs. Yeah, not a good spot to be in. Niners being ahead of them, I think it's a little disrespectful with two other teams in the division and just giving their injury stuff. But, I mean, they're way out of them. I mean, they're like 35 to 1 versus 16 to 1. we'll see i'm kind of leaving leaving them alone but i'm also just like not all that impressed with

the nfc in general like the eagles i mean their defense as you mentioned is playing really well but their offense i think still has a ton of issues like they just are not something's not clicking here uh and the rams i think you know had a little bit of a down game i think if i had to buy anyone it's probably the rams their defense is playing playing relatively well in their offense i think is capable of carrying them through like anything if need be um so even though they didn't play particularly well in this game, I think it was more of a symptom of the matchup and less about like them as a reflection of a team. Agreed. I think the Rams at, you know, plus 310 is a pretty good look. It's hard because, again, the Seahawks thing,

you're still, Sam Donald's going to have to answer the bell against some really good teams, right? He's going to have to beat the Rams and or the Eagles to take them there. That's a tough ask, considering how we've seen him play when the lights are really, really bright in some bigger spots, but just such a big believer in Mike McDonald and what this defense is and, um, dude, that JSN catch on the sideline. Crazy. So it was like a, I stood up off the couch and I was just like, oh, I mean, like just very rare for us at this point, watch so much ball to get reactions like that.

It's just crazy. Like, I'm not saying he's the best receiver in the league. I just don't know if there's anyone better, right? So he's like in that discussion, right? was just so concentrated and they know everyone knows that he they're going to him at such a crazy clip and he still really can't stop him when he can make plays like that like i don't know i think he's he's like ascended to the jemar chase justin jefferson cd lamb puka tier um at this point probably i mean i don't know after you have the year that he's having like it's tough

to not really be a night tier i think yeah he's a baller so see ox at six i don't think is terrible um again it's just going to come down to i mean sam don't know if i personally would enjoy having a sam donald ticket in the playoffs i know i just think it's one of these defenses that you might be able to look historically and you see some of these that have come out over time where again we're not really in that era of football as much anymore as we used to be but it is a defense that is so good that it can um can do some stuff i don't know i'll jump over the player stuff you mentioned Stafford now, the favorite for MVP, plus 155 on Caesars, Drake May, again, another great game.

They've separated themselves a little bit. Josh Allen still in the mix at 5 to 1. Jonathan Taylor, 9 to 1, Jonathan Taylor, again, will not win this award. Then you jump down to Mahomes at 20, and then you kind of get to another tier. Again, like the Hertz number on Fandul is baked out, but I just can't see. Considering how good Hertz was last year and it's had some good other statistical years, hard to make the case for for Hertz and then what we just saw

this week from golf and Donald is tough so really to me is Stafford May Alan Mahomes kind of a four-man race yeah I think if I had to play anyone I'm probably going Mahomes or Mahomes I guess I mean I don't know like they have to basically not win out but like

he just has to light the world on fire again I think it was a really tough matchup I think he you know his stats are good I mean stats are some of the best he's had in a long time it's just a matter of They need to win games. They can't be five and five and leap into the playoffs. Like they need to start winning some more games here.

Yeah. I love to make the case for Drake May. It's been awesome. You've made the case I've been making for a couple of weeks. If it's between Stafford and May, I'm telling you, and they both have the number one seed, Stafford wins that award. Drake may just turned 23.

Matthew Stafford's with 37. There's narratives involved. Again, it's humans making these votes. They're not going to be looking at, you know, all the nitty-gritty EPA, advanced metrics, all that stuff. The pretty graphs where Drake May is tucked nicely up in the right-hand corner of all the graphs. Love it as a Patriots fan. Very encouraged as a Patriots fan.

But if Drake or Stafford is also a number one seed, he's going to win that award. I think we could stop speculating on defensive player of the year, Connor. I don't know. I think Miles Garrett is so good at the game. and even though they are terrible, this would be the first time since 06, we would have a defensive player of the year winner on a losing team.

You just can't have these multiple four-sat games when you are already agreed upon to be the best defensive player in the league. Now he has 15 sacks for the season. He probably could get to 20 very easily or maybe even break the record if he has another one of these three four-sat games. Yeah.

I think he's, I'm not betting it at 150, but in terms of trying to make the case for some of these guys down the board, I have a hard time doing that. Yeah, what, so the record's, what, 22 and a half here? Yeah, I believe so. I mean, it's not out of reach. It's not out of reach.

I mean, that's, when you have these games where it's like, you know, you have multiple, it's pretty tough. And like, Mike has been good, obviously, but it's not the same level of impact. Yep. And that's what it feels like with this whole group here is like, yes, Miles Garrett team sucks. They're also trotting out Shitter Sanders at quarterback and noodle, noodle armed Dylan Gabriel so it's like I don't know I mean he is the best defensive player well I mean I think you might just get it just based on counting sets along

agreed um offensive rookie of the year I don't really have any takes here I think your Tyler Warren take is still holding up um yeah tight end man he just needs more yards I guess I don't need needs to be more and more dominant Tet rose up a ton after nuking this game it looks like yeah six to one Yeah, and I don't have too many takes in this market, to be honest, at this point. Defensive player or defensive rookie of the year, I'm feeling pretty good about Carson-Squessinger. Let's go. Yeah, I mean- $2.75 on the devil's book.

Devil's book, I'm out to $2.75, feeling good. That's actually where I made the bet, so. Really? Yep. I better keep that mouth shut then. You know, I'm not going to say anything. Withdrawal denied. Yeah.

Yeah, offensive rookie. we touched on offense a player of the year again this is a jonathan taylor award you can't really bet at this point um at you know minus 400 so uh and i don't want to waste their time talking about comeback player of the year because stupid market and i don't like stupid market so all right appreciate everyone hanging out with us again move along where we listen to podcast 4 4 4 live on youtube as well uh come back on friday for props with slop uh take advantage of sharpstack again 444.com slash plans free seven day trial we'd love to get your feedback use promo code win NBA for $10 month after you've taken advantage of your seven-day trial.

So I appreciate everyone hanging out with us for Connor. I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody.