Move The Line - Move The Line - Week 12 Betting Recap & Week 13 Early Predictions!

Episode Date: November 24, 2025

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Hello and welcome to move live presented by Sharpstack. I'm Ryan Noonan, joined here as always by Connor Allen. What's going on, buddy? Yeah, not a whole lot coming off a bloodbath week for your boy. A lot of late swings. Oh, yes. A lot of random stuff, you know, happening there. Not great overall.

But, you know, it's coming to Thanksgiving week. We have an unreal slate of Thanksgiving games. Like, I mean, three games that should just be. bangers like awesome games and so i'm excited yeah good i love thanksgiving we touched on earlier you think it's a trash food holiday um i know it's a very polarizing food holiday um i do think your your greater points of um you know if it was so good that it would be more prevalent um yeah you know restaurant wise there's boston market uh is out there doing you know uh is it means kind of bankrupt it's basically bankrupt

I mean, that's actually not bad. I haven't had a life. I would bank. I would look for Boston markets. Decent food. I don't know if it's bankrupt, but. Yeah. So it filed chapter 11 this year.

It's tough times, man. You know? It's my 23. I think it says 2023. The tariffs got Boston market. That's big. Yeah. You know what's ironic?

What? Growing up, no, no Boston markets. I grew up in the greater Boston area They were not I had it as a kid and I always liked it Like it was like a good dinner Oh I know it's good It was good

Like they're pot pies I remember being really good But yeah I can't say I've eaten it in at least 10 years I do have one out like Do you have one by you or no? There's one like Schaumburg But I think

I'm thinking about it close It's not really close to me But you know If you wanted to go it was a 15 minute drive but you know i don't know i like thanksgiving i enjoy the food i don't know how to approach it this year my diet's a little different so oh yeah you know i'm not yeah it's just more turkey lots stuff i love stuffing stuffing mass potatoes all that stuff uh it's not currently in the mix for me but we'll figure it out food family football it's a good day

overall though can you do gravy on the turkey or no yeah i mean i'm at a little like i'm not gonna be I'll do stuffing. I'll do mashed potatoes, too. Okay. A little, just a little bit. I was about to say, you got to at least have a little dabble there. Like the sides, I always love, love the mac and cheese is always money. Yeah.

Yeah. But, you know, it's just like just turkey without anything else, unless it's cooked perfectly, which I believe that maybe you do. It's like nice and moist and stuff like that, which is very rare. We did fried turkey, actually. We fried an entire one. That was really good. Yeah, it was dangerous.

People started doing that, like, you know, late 90s for the first. time and like you just had all these house fires people like cooking it in their garage and doing stupid stuff yeah no we we were very cognizant we did it out back like it was very dry like slow like slowly into the oil you know it was like uh make sure it wasn't too full so yeah we had to take all these crazy precautions but it didn't end up worth it it was definitely some of the better turkey that i've had yeah pretty easy to dry it out and it's just unbearable dry so bad i mean then you just got to douse in gravy or like basically make like a mashed potatoes bowl with like gravy mash and turkey and then correct which is something that i think boston market shifted to in the last

handful years is that bowl just all the crap together yeah slot bowl it's the original slot bowls so good it's uh that's i mean it's how you get how you get by bad thanksgivings but again like i think you are not in a bad Thanksgiving food family yeah my wife my my mother-in-law also really good cook so i am in a lucky spot so yeah um look you also don't have to just have the bird like you know you get a nice like sirloin cap or get like a nice kind of meat and like I don't think you have to be married to to the turkey so innovate people do a chicken you know like roast a chicken do some different stuff yeah you know enjoy the company that you have enjoy football at connor said good slate of games uh we'll kind

of unpack some of those here this week housekeeping me in the top so we touched on it on friday on a prop drop show Connor's going to be traveling uh Slop and I were going to move the show up an hour early because we, in the same spot that we typically do the show, we have Bears Eagles here this week on Black Friday. Turns out, Slop was speaking on a turn as well. His wife had, you know, filled his calendar and he didn't realize it. So Slop is also going to be unavailable. You don't want me by myself for, you know, 45 minutes on Black Friday. Way less engaging.

I like to play off my, you know, my showmates here. So no prop drop this week, we apologize. So all the bets specifically will come for subscribers through our Discord. And right now, 444.com slash plans, no promo code needed. Everything on the site, as is the case right now for all Black Friday holiday sales, already discounted. So Picks alone, 50% off, Sharpstack, 50% off. Those are both annual, full year subscriptions. So you would get 12 rolling months from when you subscribed because we have MBA offers.

rings, MMA, baseball, NASCAR, all that stuff, both for Sharpstack and for PICSide. So Sharpstack will have more sports. We have a bunch of sports too. There's WMBAs in there, but obviously all the college football stuff that's in there as well. So take advantage of you have any questions, reach out to us, free seven-day trial on the Sharpstack side, and then you can take advantage of the promo code or the promo after that if you'd like to extend.

So good stuff there. Just come back again next Monday. We'll recap, but we won't have any prop drop. So apologies there. Hopefully Slop enjoys his turkey. We'll get his turkey takes another time. All right, let's jump in. No buys this week, too.

So we have a pretty full slate of games. We've got a buy week for buy weeks. Next week is the last buy week that we have on the docket. But a pretty interesting slate of games here that went back in week 12. We'll start on the Thursday night game where the Texans 2319 knocked off the bills. Bill's kind of struggling cluster injuries in the defensive side of the ball. You know,

the big win for the Texans who really stay in the mix here, getting a couple of dubs without C.J. Stroud, I think it's really important for them. Any takeaways here on Bill's Texans. I mean, the big one was, I mean, heading into the game, we knew it was kind of a bad matchup for the bills, given their defensive injuries,

given that, like, the Texans' defenses has been playing so well. And just kind of, and then the Bill's offensive injuries, you had like a banged up Kul Shakir, play really well honestly on a short week still not really sure he's 100% but he looked looked good um and overall like i think this bill's team like they just need to get healthy there's a couple of teams like that right now where when they're not a full health like they're

just i mean there's massive holes in secondary their run defenses already wasn't good uh and then if they're receiving core is injured when you're like dalton cancade out keon coleman's just healthy scratch probably forever i mean it wasn't very good to begin with but like he was at least a body out there um so it's just a big problem then it's just a big problem then it's just what Josh Allen playing hero ball and then James Cook in the running game going and if I mean you can't play hero ball against the Texans defense with no receivers no in other worlds if we didn't have Miles Garrett doing what Miles Garrett's doing I think we could have a Will Anderson Jr. Deniel Hunter defensive player the year battle going on

internal with the Texans because they're both absolutely balling out what Miles Garrett's doing is otherworldly at this point so that's not really a discussion to be had. But yeah, it is a real, real unit defensively that's keeping them in games. I think we have lots of questions about who they are offensively, even with C.J. Stroud in the lineup. So more injuries for the bills, though, Terrell Bernard, their best linebacker. If it's a dislocated elbow, something happened. Looks like he's a candidate to go in the IR. So that's, you know, basically a candidate to go in the IR. You're telling me he's like three to five weeks. You know, that basically pushes him out of the rest of the

the regular season at this point so again just more you're just going to continue to be able to run on the bills like it's nothing new here at all over out terrell bernard out you know basically all three levels um perished in the rookie corner went out in this game so they're on the road against pittsburgh they are four point three and a half four point uh favorites here uh for week 13 and the Texans are also on the road big game for them for them and the Colts there about four four and a half point dogs any thoughts on the week 13 lines for either of these clubs I don't mind the I don't mind the bills there against the the Steelers I do worry though like if Steelers can run the ball I don't know forced some pressure again on Josh Allen like

a little bit and make wreak havoc like I don't know if they're really a great matchup here to be fading or like to be backing the bills in like a bounce back situation so Yeah, I mean, first glance, it's kind of, it's kind of a tough sell, honestly, actually. Yeah, Steelers are almost like a poor man's Texans in the way. I mean, that's actually not fair. The Texas defense is significantly better than the Steelers defense. The Steelers' defense on paper should be that good. They're not.

They haven't, like, we thought that was going to be the case from week one from the jump when we saw, like, Justin Fields and the Jets hang one on them in week one. It's a sign of things to come. This Steelers defense has been a sizable disappointment. agree i mean it's it's hard to really feel great about the bills at this point so uh texans should get straub back to be just to see if they get jalen petrie back as well um next we had the ravens win 23 to 10 at home against the jats 72 total yards in the first half really playing with their food just kind of what we saw last week too waiting for this raven's team who keeps winning games which we thought would happen because the schedule is so soft again eventually you're going to

play 60 minutes against the Jets, even the Jets without Justin Fields, they're going to eventually do something where they just repeatedly shoot themselves in the foot. And they did it here a couple times in the second half with bad penalties. They decided to go for it on fourth and two from midfield, which seemed like, I get it. Like, you're the Jets. Like, why are you punting in that situation? Yeah. But it ended the game for them in a sense. Like you just flipped the, you know, gave some momentum back to the Ravens. And they finally got it going a little bit in the second half but like you just would love to have seen the ravens just throttle the jets and they just didn't yeah i haven't really played all that well and i mean the first half was like a disaster i mean

they were losing yeah like seven three at half derrick henry never got going on the ground 64 yards and 21 carries zay flowers continues to be the only receiver basically here with a pulse it seems like uh and that's i think okay i mean like mark andrews you'd like more on mark andrews like out more out of likely um but yeah i mean probably need just even more out of zay here so like the schedule will be easy going forward and i still didn't the ravens probably win the division but it's i mean it just needs to be better otherwise they're going to be an early playoff exit here yeah they got on top of it we obviously have playoff lamar right it's a situation that he needs to kind of figure out and overcome but i feel like we're just seeing like playoff lamar right now

but luckily but they're just playing bad teams so it's okay it's massed um so it's not really impacting them. So we'll see. They obviously are the nightcap on Thursday nights against Joe Burrow and the Bengals, which would be interesting to see. Jets host the Falcons. Any thoughts on Falcons Jets?

I'm sure we'll circle back here on Bengals, Ravens a little bit. Yeah, I mean, Falcons are really bad too. So this is like, I mean, hypothetically, they should be able to run the ball. It's interesting because like the Jets lost Quinn and Williams,

but their run defense has actually been like good still. Maybe they're just like, I have kind of this theory is that they're like just like loading the box and just like, you know, making teams beat them with the past. But I don't know if that actually bared out in terms of like the rates of what they did the last couple weeks. But the run units hasn't been bad since they got rid of Quinn. So, which is kind of interesting because they played some teams that like should have been able to run like all over them basically or at least we thought, which I think is the Falcons really key here. like I don't know if I really want to be backing Kirk like throwing the ball a bunch if they can't run the ball so for me it's probably a stay away or under I don't know also tie rod looked competent um but yeah bangles ravens though I think I kind of think bangles plus seven is

interesting I do too um T Higgins going to be out in that game T. Hendrickson still remaining out but the bengal showed a little bit of a pulse against the Patriots like you know and obviously Burrow is, you know, we'll see how rusty he is. I've heard some, like, we've seen historically Burrow kind of a slow starter in September typically. Then there's a case to be made that there's, you know, like we've restarted his restart, you know, here by him being off. We'll see how he comes back and looks.

But yeah, because we haven't seen the Ravens really take it to anybody. Obviously, they cover here. They went by 13, but 23 points. I think we're all fairly disappointed in that outcome. and a lot of it was self-inflicted because of the Jets. I'm kind of with you. I think taking the points here with the Bengals makes some sense, especially if we get some positive practice reports.

52 and a half, 51 and a half. The total is pretty hefty. And again, this could be a spot where it wouldn't surprise us, I guess, if we saw the Ravens turn it up a notch. And the Bengals defense does obviously allow that to happen quite a bit. Now, your inclination was correct. They had a stacked box on 59. 9% of the place.

Pretty heavy, pretty heavy stack box rate. But then Lamar should be taking advantage of that. That's a bad secondary. That's the point. And like, so like with the Browns, I would assume that the rate was the same

because Judkins was just like running into like a eight man box. Seemed like every play. So the Raiders are always, almost always blindly lead the league in stacked rate every week. They were they, that's just kind of almost their base is they. Yeah. Yeah.

It's just like one of those things where I see it and like I immediately am looking if I'm, if I'm sharing the running back, I'm counting how many guys are in the box or rooting against the number or rooting against the running back. Because, like, if there's like five guys, maybe six, I don't know. I label it by halves because sometimes like someone like kind of creeps on the edge and they can't tell. Like, you see somewhere there's like six and I'm like, oh, you just got to run the ball. And then they pass. I'm like, run the ball. You're going to get like five, six yards or vice versa.

Like, you know they're going to be on a, they run a draw there. And I'm rooting on some guys on, rooting for some guys under. And like, it's like a free 10 yards, you know, because like no one's in the box. everyone's dropping into coverage and the guy can just walk, walk forward there. So it's, um, uh, it works my head a little bit. You're, you're looking at the defensive side pre-snap?

I am. Well, it depends. If I'm rooting for running backs, yes, but, um, receivers,

not as much. I don't know, like it depends on, also depends on how well my brain's functioning on a Sunday. It's not always 100%, you know, it's like, uh,

sometimes it's been a little rough. Um, but I don't know, Bengals, I think are interesting here. I have Bengals plus seven is not bad. Yeah, bangles plus seven,

I think is, is probably a pretty good side. Any thoughts on the total? It's pretty hefty. That's a lot of points. Although the Ravens secondary, I have not been all that impressed with still, even though they're like,

technically their deans is getting healthier. I mean, A.D. Mitchell is still just, was running wide open on them. John Metchy got open a bunch. The screens were working to, or Bree set a couple of bigger plays. Like 70, 75 yards or something like that receiving.

Yeah. Yeah. So, I don't know. I mean, I think Chase Brown is going to have like 50 receiving yards um but it's it's going to be ridiculous i'm not i'm not betting the not betting it either yeah but i do think it could be used a lot in the receiving game so i i don't know like i kind of think it could be high scoring 52 does feel high i was going to get more like 48 49 yeah just thinking if you like the bangles you know bangles team

total um yeah i think just taking the points probably makes makes a good deal of sense there um i'll give the team that's really impactful for what's going on the raven side is the Steelers, they lose in Chicago, 31 to 28th. The Bears continue to get it done. Four straight, eight of nine. They are still your leaders in the NFC North. We did have probably one of the worst sacks I've ever seen taken by Caleb Williams in this game. But it was the only sack he took, which again continues to be a miraculous shift of what's happened here from last year.

uh running backs splitting carries and getting it done um defense i can't just i don't i don't i don't know um we continue to show up here and you know but hey look they win a football game we don't think they're very good we're going to get answers in the next month and a half to the bears because the remaining schedule is significantly tougher than what they've played before the Steelers who they just beat yesterday it's the only team that they've been so far the season that has a winning record so it's not their fault you can only play the teams in your schedule but they keep having these like close fourth quarter wins comeback wins against teams that we don't think are very good on they have to kind of answer the bell in the division they get Philadelphia on Friday just it's getting trickier here for the for the bears yeah obviously the Caleb william and sack fumble in the end zone uh it was like one of those things where he does that like he makes that move i don't know a bunch during the year and has no problem getting away from 95% of the D-Ns

and like it's fine. It just didn't work on JJ. On what? It wasn't like the 19, which is wild. Like it wasn't like they were inside the five and he got sacked on that play. Like he ran way back.

Yeah. It's crazy. I mean, it wasn't good. But yeah, I guess my point was like, I just think that he didn't think it through. Like it was one of the,

felt like one of those moments of like, you're playing with someone way better than you and you just like weren't really thinking about it. And then hindsight, like, oh yeah, I just totally fucked that up. You know,

I totally messed that up because, like, they're just more athletic than I am. Like, they're not going to fall for any, like, you know, spin move around that he does or, like, you know, kind of like the instant step back. So, yeah, it was, it was, I mean, there's not making, not making any excuses for him because that was, it was a really bad play. But he does make that work most of the time. It's just not, not against, you know, not against Wather. So it's, it was tough. But I think that they just keep finding a way, like it's crazy. I don't really think Caleb played all that well.

Otherwise, missed a lot of really easy throws. um then hit a bunch of awesome ones so it's just like really tough because it the i think the narrative continues to be the same like continues to prove it's correct and eventually like you said they're going to play teams that are good enough to just like remember in week two or whatever when they play the lions and lions scored like 53 on them or something like that week two or three yeah it was week two i'm pretty sure i mean that's like only in play basically every week i think starting now could not agree more i mean they probably could jeline johnson back okay

Tiger Stevenson went out on the first quarter in this game. Ruben Hebrilite, one of the linebackers went down in the first quarter in this game. They literally had to. Yes, barely played. It played like 10 snaps. So Tremaine Edwards is on IR. We'll see if they get T.J. Edwards and Noah Sewell back. If they can get Kyler Gordon back, maybe the, you know, Stevenson injury is not super serious because Nick McLeod came in and the Steelers bomb hunted.

Nick McLeod. Really good teams will hopefully bum hunt Nick McLeod, if that's the case. We'll see. They are getting the Eagles who are coming off of obviously a pretty disappointing loss as well. They are seven point dogs in Philly, 44.5, 45 is the total there. We can jump into the Eagles there too, you know, skip in a little bit. But like, that was obviously one of the surprising contests of the week. They got, it was 21 Zip, Philadelphia, with, I think, like, three minutes into the second.

It looked like it was going to be Philly boat race, when it come out of the day. And it's like, all right, Philly is kind of the clear number one C in the NFC. Maybe, you know, kind of we're back here after a couple of months and they're still kind of the best team in the NFL. And then they just couldn't get it together. They had some injuries. Actually, had a bunch of injuries in the secondary in the second half, decided that they wanted to take their full. off the gas and did a lot of early down runs and that continues to go nowhere which is really bizarre but um they're looking to bounce back here against the bears any thoughts on eagles uh losing

the last second field goal to dallas on this philly bears matchup here for week 13 i mean i think that petulos should be imprisoned i mean like i think this is like there were so many good examples of what to do you know with motion rates and play action and he just does none of it and so it's I mean, it's awful. They need to change, they need to change everything. It's just like, it's all bad right now on the Eagle's offensive side. 10 carries for 22 yards were Saquo and Barclay. It's not going to cut it.

Again, I know the Cowboys events should be a little bit better and like played a play has played a little bit better. But they're still not like a good unit by any means. A.J. Brown got going. It's like a super zone heavy team. So that was good to see finally. You know, it was like, whatever, eight for one, 10. but on the cowboy side too like Dak is I mean

coming into his own I guess I don't know if that's the right right word that was awesome he's just he was so good yeah I mean I mean 5 5 do they have like a realistic shot to like do anything down the stretch I mean Chiefs Lions Lions is a really rough stretch here especially after just playing the Eagles

yeah it's tough I mean I don't I think they do I mean I haven't looked at the schedule obviously you just laid out some of those next few ones Minnesota Chargers commanders giants and they get on the other side of this so it's tricky but you guys where are they stealing from right like we're in the situation where we have all these NFC North teams that are winning football games um so that's that gets tricky right like where we could talk about the bears but the bears right now are

eight and three right so they that's a huge spot where you the bears are winning the division you know funny that is they're winning in their first place yeah we get the panthers situation with the with the bucks um you have at least you have the two teams well you have three playoff teams in the west right you have Rams Seahawks Niners so like yeah it gets it gets real real real tough real quick for the for the Cowboys which i think you see reflected in like to make the playoff odds and um yeah there was two games back now at this point 10% current playoff probability by NFL. It sucks.

I mean, like I think they have some good players, but, you know, C.D. Lamb gets hurt and then their defense just is awful, which we definitely could have seen coming because they did nothing to make it better. So, you know, not that surprising.

But they're a fun team. So I think they're, they could win some games coming up. Could also lose plenty of them, but you never know. Yeah. Deck was awesome. It was vertical.

It was like, you know, they took advantage of the injuries on the Eagle side in the secondary. And we're going to figure of those. out. Looks like Andrew McComba, rookie safety, busted his ankle. That could maybe even be season ending. There were other starting safety. Reed Blanketship left in the third quarter with a thigh injury.

So they could be on safety three and four here against the Bears. Dori Jackson went down in this game. That kicked Kuberjee to the outside and a bunch of two-receiver stuff, which I love Kuber Degene. I think he's fantastic. Like, him matched up on the perimeter with George Pickens is less than ideal, right? Like, and the inside is a little bit easier for him on the outside. That's a pretty tough ask.

We saw some like moss, like just him mossing Cooper DeGine a couple different times in the second half. You know, so great throws by Dak, tough spot. So we're going to figure out what's going on with the Eagles with injuries here too. Like they could be kind of, you know, they were kind of shaving in a form defensively. Now they're in a spot where the pairs could take advantage of. of injuries on the eagle side and we'll be here next week like bears beat the eagles i don't know what to tell you oh my gosh you know you know wild that would be um it's so interesting because like i don't know if they're they're just gonna have to have come up with some crazy defensive

game plan but it's not like the eagles are infallible offensively they just like are better than them everywhere but you know it's if somehow they can find ways to get pressure on jlin urts and not allow a jrown just like run free deep it's not crazy and then play like not even just just don't let say Juan have like a 70 yard run basically would be the other thing which is way easier said than done doesn't seem to be in the bag this year it's so weird I don't know what to make of it he's washed yeah it's over just kidding he's how old he this one is 27 yeah I mean so many touches last year but like Kenny he's not done right like I mean this is crazy yeah when it turns 29 in February I mean he's basically

basically geriatric yeah A-R-P, you get his discounted donut. Yeah, well, one of the main games we get on Thursday in that primetime spot is the Chiefs against the Cowboys. Their Chiefs did get a win, 2320 against the Colts. I'm going to be fascinated to watch that game against the Cowboys. Hopefully it could be pretty entertaining. Now, again, the Chiefs kind of controlled this game against the Colts, except the scoreboard. They just kind of got on the wrong side.

it quickly with that like layout too lot to tip pick inside the five all of a sudden like chiefs are just kind of having a play from behind but like they did a great job defensively they shut down jonathan taylor they didn't really allow you know any of the receivers to get going the defense kind of look like playoff type of of defense that we see from the chiefs over the last you know five to seven years and they just first downs at will now they just struggled in the red zone they couldn't really convert at a high rate and needed obviously some miraculous ball at the end to get down and you know kick a field goal obviously to push it into OT but I don't know I feel like we're the same thing we say in the bears every week we keep coming in and making excuses for the

chiefs but I'm still not ready to see them I don't think it's over I think the chiefs are still very much legit I think they're going to be there in the end be surprised to see them not being the playoffs and not be a massive contender here. So any takeaways from Kansas City's 23-20 win against the Colts? I think you nailed most of it there, like the Colts. I mean, this is again what we talked on with like the Chiefs make a run. They make the playoffs to Wild Card. Disaster draw. Like I don't even think the Chiefs played particularly well in terms like the box where like you said, like got off to a slow start, fell into a hole. I think it was 23 maybe something like at one point. It was like something very lopsided. And so it's, I mean, it's just tough. And so they worked there.

way back in and like i mean it can easily happen to the playoffs if the chiefs come out and play better initially like the colts probably lose by a touchdown plus so um yeah it's that i mean i guess it's good good practice for the colts kind of like trying to figure something out against a real team you know yeah i will say the colts like which was speculated now with severance award coming back like the defense is kind of legit now i you know i i think de fors buggner is one of like the top 10 defensive players in the league i think he's insane insanely underrated he's on i are they need him back when they get him back up front because again there's very few interior defensive linemen that are both elite pass rushers and elite run stoppers

and buckner is that still um now you get these absolute dogs in the outside that can play man if they want they can disguise different stuff they're like good slot corner and kenny more like they're pretty legit now it's just can daniel jones answer the bell here down the stretch we'll find out because they're going to be a playoff team they're going to be in the mix again that division's getting

a little bit interesting which is weird but I still imagine that the Colts are going to take it down but yeah we can take away Jonathan Taylor things get a little bit easier and the Chiefs certainly

did that here now as we shift to the Thursday game Chiefs are between three and three and a half point favorites against Dallas 52 is the total It looks like Fandall's got a juicy 51 and a half. I mean, we should have fireworks, you would think.

But I think both defenses are starting to play a little bit better. Temper is my expectations a little bit. But again, I think we should at least have some entertaining football here. What are your thoughts on Chiefs and Cowboys? Yeah, I mean, Cowboys run defense have played better like the last three, four weeks. And so I think that this could make like, I mean, Mahomes should throw it like 40 plus times here pretty easily. And Dak, even if the Cowboys fall behind again, should just throw it a bunch. So it's like either way, I don't think the,

either teams like fully counted out even if they fall behind, which is kind of cool because you can't say the same about a lot of other teams. And so, yeah, I don't, I mean, I kind of like the Cowboys plus three and a half if you get a draft Kings. I don't think that's bad. But it's, I mean, it's tough fade in the Chiefs. But I think this Cowboys, if they can stop the run, maybe focus more on just like, I don't know, defending the past a little bit more, kind of dropping the coverage.

Like, my home is going to complete probably everything against Cowboys, Cowboys zone there. but yeah this is a really tough game to handicap honestly is because i think we are shifting in a spot where we kind of have to separate our early cowboy's defense thoughts because it is a completely different unit right there are like six seven new guys taking meaningful snaps on that defense compared to even like three weeks ago so in a lot of ways schematically is still the same they're pretty much a fairly zone heavy team but like in terms of actual players it is a fairly different unit so we think just kind of anchoring to season long stats there is probably a mistake but we'll see i mean i also want to see that right that felt very much in the first

quarter against philly they're like oh same same crap they're just rotating they're rotating they're rotating new guys in and they just still can't get it done so um we'll see here a little bit on thursday and again hopefully just uh you don't have to bet all the games you bet props or something for sure i think props will be juicy for that one uh all right we'll circle back we touched on the bangles a little bit but they lost 26 to 20 to new england's uh really good start for the bangles peters look like they're kind of you know just slow start not crisp from draig may um but they ended up getting it going again they put them in a spot where uh before dray may's hands and got them in a trailing game script and he absolutely started to carve them up in the second

half obviously the key news coming out of new england here are the injuries along the offensive line looks like we're going to be okay in terms of of like those being season-long injuries. But obviously in the short term, those are going to matter quite a bit here for New England. Now they get the Giants on Monday night here in week 13. So we'll see what happens there. I don't think it's going to impact them too, too much.

But obviously, down the stretches, you've got some, you know, meaningful games coming up against Buffalo and Baltimore on the other side of the buy. Those are going to be, you know, way more meaningful losses if those guys are still out of the lineup here. But any thoughts on New England's 26, 20 wins? against the Bengals. Yeah, I mean, I thought Drake May looked like hammered in the first quarter.

Like, it was like skyline chili or something. I don't know. He was throwing balls into the dirt. Like there would be two guys in the same air. You could throw to either one. He'd throw like in between him. They like fell down. He skied to come up all over.

The pick was really bad. It was really bad. I was like, who is this guy? Like this is like, we haven't seen this for a long time. It's like worse than what he looked like as a rookie most of the time. Then he kind of woke up a little bit, started to get better. It still wasn't like super. great like even the throws that he did complete were not his normal amounts i don't know maybe

he just woke up on the wrong side of the bad was having a bad day thankfully the bengals are so bad that it didn't matter um there like hunter henry was open i don't know every play basically or every other play uh so yeah didn't end up mattering all that much travian saw a massive workload which which was good to see again didn't do a whole lot with it but uh see i think to be expected a little bit it's going to be you know some ups and downs here and there and then this bengals team yeah like we talked about it a little earlier you get burrow back you get chase back from the suspension lose tea but i think we're going to see like 15 jimar chase targets probably this week um which it's always fun it's always fun yeah the uh Patriots did a good job

this happened in another game too when you can do this basically get pressure at a really high rate and don't blitz um that's just going to be real tough for anyone Patriots did not blitz until the final drive and then they sent like four blitzes in a row and ended the game So just kind of keep it in the holster and then just turn it up when the other team is not expecting it can can have some pay off some pretty massive dividends. I think the injuries along the offensive line are going to be pretty impactful. Like I said, coming into the buy at the right time, Giants might not make you pay for it. But I do think it really showed up on the ground in particular. Obviously, protecting Dring Mae's blindside is a problem.

But I think the injuries in the short term, at least in Monday night's game against the Giants, is going to force. probably a little bit more of a pass-heavy game script. Now, again, they're going to try to run because everyone runs with a ton of success against the Giants. I'm just interested to see how that kind of plays itself out. Probably getting dartback too, right? Probably getting dart back, you would think, yeah. Although the James' game was fun.

James game was fun. Yeah, it certainly was. That is our next one for sure. But yeah, the James game was fun. Yeah, look, 3427 Lions win. That's probably if I'm a Giants' fun. fan, thank God I'm not. But if I was a Giants fan,

I got to think that's the best case scenario to a degree, right? You showed a pulse, your team played a fun football game. You didn't win. You don't need a win. What do you need to win? Like, you know, two and ten.

You want to be three and nine? Like, no. Like, there's some talent in this draft. You want to be, you want your choice. Get up there at the top. James showed a pulse. You know, the Lions. Talk about these games.

Are you like over handicapped? And again, they were 13. point favorites where you start to tie in all these props that have a very specific outcome and they're all unintentionally correlated that goes to the wayside very quickly uh we saw that unless you had you know bet on jimir gibbs alts because those hit yeah jimir gives alts the jamis stuff i looked at it don't really know why i didn't play it um like the two oh 219 or whatever ends up with 366 like i think what was most surprising to me honestly was how how little pressure the Lions got on James and I mean one sack finished with one sack he threw a pick

which is obvious I mean he's like you know he was like minus 200 to throw a pick I think like he is basically every week that he plays because he throws some crazy stuff but like there were guys like Wondale was open like every play it seemed like on like deep stuff crossers everything I mean that's concerning to me most of this lion's defenses they were just were not playing well at all lion's offense I mean we always knew was going to get there in the end I think they when they fell out, fell behind here, 10-0 in the first quarter, and then fell behind even more, like later in the game. So it makes sense.

And obviously they're going to carve up the Giants' defense when they have to come back. It's not super surprising there. But, yeah, we tied some props together that wanted to being correlated in the event that the Giants took a 10-plus-point lead at one point as 13-point underdogs, which somehow happens. So it's pretty crazy. It's really kind of fascinating. If you look at some of what happened, you're looking at next-gen stats,

The Lions led the week in pressure rate. What? 51.3% one sack. And we're just, you know, hard to do if you're getting 50% pressure rate, you know, one sack. James also had, their time to pressure was 3.22, which is really high. It just means like it took them a long time to get pressure. So they weren't getting quick pressures at all. Just kind of what I think you're seeing with your eyes.

That's right. Yeah. Yeah, which makes sense. I mean, that's one of the highest of the entire week. So it just means that James. This is, like, time to throw was really high. I haven't looked at that yet. But I mean, like it just means he's holding on the ball way too long.

It did feel like he was holding it, letting like, like, like Wondale's run across the field and then be open for like 30 yards. And he wait, wait, wait, last second, then just get it out. So like, I guess you count that as a pressure. I mean, it counts, I guess I'm sure. But like, I don't know. It's kind of like he could have gotten out earlier if he wanted to. I'm sure he's waiting for the guy to get open like to cross the field.

So, I don't know, makes sense. the team has next in pressure for the week having time to pressure almost a second faster a full second so yeah that speaks to more of the game is in style uh the packers got it that also makes sense yeah also makes sense yeah um so yeah i bet wondale's receptions five and a half like plus plus sunday morning thought that was a good look and it was you cash in the first half yeah that makes a ton of sense because that actually also did fit our game script that that we were kind of expecting as 13-point dogs. Yeah, I just had so many props earlier. I wanted to play dart over, you know, attempts. I wanted to play Isaiah Hodgins. All stuff I ended up actually coming in and hitting. Just shifted when the James number came out

and was significantly higher than the dart number and hated it. Hated it here. Zero catches from Jameson Williams, which I thought was bizarre. I'm not reading too much into that, but maybe a good bounce back spot for him here in the next week. So all right. Transition again, professional show. Right into the team that had the second highest pressure rate was the Green Bay Packers,

23 to 6 against the Minnesota Vikings. Now, this is not an excuse for JJ McCarthy. It was bad. Probably not going to see JJ McCarthy. This week, it sounds like he's in the concussion protocol. I saw the play. This is not a soft benching. He was bad.

He totally landed on his face and, like, second and last play in the game. So I'm totally out on the soft benching thing. The dude out on the, the bench is looking pretty plush from my point of view. I think he's absolutely struggled and has been awful. No one's making an argument. Look, and I wasn't like a big JJ guy. Like, I don't feel the need to come up here and like, you know, like hold on to my, my priors. My priors weren't very strong.

It starts a good roster. I thought they'd be okay. But I think the concussion is very, very real. I think it's just kind of lazy to be like this is his third soft benching like maybe he totally I'll show the clip you haven't seen the clip he lands he gets tackle from behind like throwing like moving forward and he does the old like in no hands bounces on his face second last play in the game makes sense that he has a concussion either way to the greater point the other team just like what the Patriots did the Packers defense was awesome and they got a ton of pressure

49% pressure rate, and they blitzed like three times. JJ, with how he's playing right now, that level of quarterback play, if he was going to get pressured that often without the blitz, he is done so. And that's what happened here. Yeah, I mean, that's tough. I mean, he only ends up with 19 pass attempts too. They ran 44 plays, I think, something like that.

Like another just like crazy outlier volume low because they couldn't move the ball. and so that's if you can't get first down it's like it doesn't matter how far you fall behind you fall you fall um and the packers were running the ball efficiently but yeah that's like i just thought that it was coincident like it seemed very coincidental that he plays awful doesn't have doesn't ever go to the blue tent in game you know what i mean like there's a second last play of the game there's second of last offensive play for the vikis yeah so like that's possible um and i guess like you can get like i don't know i mean you're at concussion before yeah yeah i've had like five five diagnosed so whatever it's just like i don't know

usually i it depends he obviously didn't block out and like concussion's like range in severity too like maybe it was like late developing or like he was kind of like oh i feel just a little bit knocked out of it and then you go and then i don't know like it usually though like it would take him saying to the training staff something or he's just like really fucked up like you know like it's got to be one of the other so he's either really fucked up where he's like oh, like, I don't really feel all that good. And they do concussion tests and then, you know, all that stuff. And then, then he's out, in which case, I don't know.

I'm just, the more that we see this guy play, plus combine with some of this stuff, you get, you have a post-game concussion diagnosed. Kind of soft. I'm not going to lie. That's, that's, you know. We didn't. Like, sell the schedule. Like, where are we going next week?

Seattle? Can I talk to the trainer? Yeah, yeah. Man, my head's hurting, you know. How's Chris? How's Christian Darsaw? is he he left is he he's okay yeah let's go see the train yeah no it's i don't know maybe maybe i'm being too harsh on him he just does not it's not there yet i think we can do all the christian i

think we can do all the j j mccarthy stuff without the soft benching and the fake concussion stuff he's flat out been bad he has been late his footwork is bad when he's clean pocket he's inaccurate it's all been really really really really bad it's And that's it. I think it's even worse in the context, too, when you consider the three other guys who have operated in this exact same system, none of which were very good,

all became awesome. It's true. Like, that makes it even worse. You know, you have Darnold. You had, what, Cousins was good before, you know, his whole thing. I think didn't Daniel Jones play a game was good, too, at one point?

Like, I mean, this is like. You've seen Josh Dobbs pop up in here and play okay. Yeah, like, and it's not even like, bad like bad it's just like really really bad like it's like it's not like it's like okay bad it's like Carson Wentz was like okay bad like he looked he was bad but he wasn't like catastrophically bad all the time um until the end you know the last game was really rough but it's just like I don't know like how many more excuses we can make for him where you're not showing anything NFL quarterback like ready yeah like Caleb I mean Caleb was really bad last year but at least

there was like oh yeah he'd scramble out and then throw a 50 yard rope you know what I mean And then then he throws six over some other guys had and, you know, a couple in the dirt. But then he just gave a sack and then run for 15 yards and like, you know, do cool stuff occasionally. And then got better with better coaching and stuff like that. But you just don't have that many excuses with JJ. Yeah. You can't at the NFL level be a see it and throw a guy.

And I still think Caleb's probably a little bit of a see it throw a guy. But he's kind of, you know, not a freak athlete, but he's, I think, just the arm strength. And yeah, I mean, like sack of owing is a legit skill, right? If we want to say taking sacks is a quarterback stat, then like sack avoidance is a quarterback stat. When you look historically who are the best sack avoiders year in and year out, it is Patrick Mahomes and is Josh Allen. It's been Lamar outside of this year.

Lamar is taking a ton of sacks this year. But historically it's been those types of guys. And now, you know, we're seeing Caleb in that mix. JJ is a see it and throw a guy. And you just can't, you can't do that in the NFL, there's none of the time. Like wide open or open in the NFL is just so different than playing Maryland at 11 a.m. on a Saturday morning. It's just, it's very, very different. Even then, he wasn't even asked to do it very often, right?

At Michigan, that was the problem. So it's not good. These injuries, these setbacks are a problem for him because the reality at this point is they're not a playoff team. He needs reps. He needs game reps. And like, this is a tough stretch because the Packers defense is really good. And the Packer's defense played really good. And Seattle would absolutely just curb-stomp him in a very, very, very bad way.

But he needs those reps, unfortunately. So coming out of that, commanders, Cowboys, Giants, the next three, hopefully he's able to get back and out there. And I don't think those three teams, like, if it's bad there. I think that's it. Yeah. And then Detroit Green Bay, the last two in Detroit Green Bay, going to need those two games. 17 and 18 the Vikings literally have to answer the question the offseason who's coming in for competition because you can't blindly give him the job next year unless you see a pulse here in the

next five weeks. I think it's actually pretty similar to the Anthony Richardson problem in a lot of ways. Like when he didn't have many games, he got injured and then like you just didn't know what you had. So you're like a really limited sample of like, okay, well, what do we have? And can we tie another year to this guy? And the answer to the Colts had was no. And they brought in Daniel Jones. And I think that that's like probably the most likely outcome. Like you're not going to like, there's nothing really you can do with him. Like you can't just like, I mean, you trade him, I guess for like a sixth or seventh.

This is probably what he'd get at this point. But like, you know, you're not going to get much. You probably got to bring in some kind of like vet that you know. Jacoby Reset. Yeah, Brissette on that. I mean, that would be a great option right now seemingly. I bet I would have Berset would be great in the Vikings offense. It was terrible for the Patriots last year.

But that might not be, you know, it could be systems. Maybe Drew Petsing is a guy. We'll get to the Cardinals, but like, you know, we're getting all these different, you know, maybe Kyler's worse than we think. Maybe Anthony Richardson could you go to Minnesota. Give me Anthony Richardson. Oh, God. Well, the worst quarterback room of all time.

J.J. McCartney, McCarthy and Anthony Richardson. Holy shit. My Anthony Richardson dream won't die. I need any Kevin. Give him a Kevin a call, see if he can fix it. To be fair, how much worse could he be? Can't. It's been bad for JJ.

So, and kudos again to Green Bay, you know, without Josh Jacobs, they looked really good. Leans very, very heavily on the ground game and got it done. We'll see this is a big one. Obviously, they looked awesome, and their defense was unbelievable in week one. And this is a really important game, you know, for the Lions head-to-head. Obviously, with the Bears continuing to win football games, and then, you know, Packers having the one-up. This is a really, really important game for Detroit. here in week 12 on Thursday.

All right. Let's see what is next here on the docket. Seattle again. Seattle allowed Tennessee to come back a little bit. 30 to 24 is the final score. It was not this close. They really had, you know, absolute controlless game. Their defense is awesome.

And they did a great job. That first touchdown to Jackson Smith and Jigba was just so sick. You just see they did a motion back and forth for an jig, but they allowed a safety to get locked in on him, man coverage and just took a shot. Again, bullish on this team for the coaching reasons, and now we're seeing obviously all the talent on both sides of the ball. You know, when you continue to hit home runs in the draft for like a couple of straight years and then land the play in a quarterback with Sam Donald, here we are.

Any takeaways from Seattle and Tennessee. No, I mean, final score looks a lot closer than the game was. It was like, whatever, 30 to 10. Yeah. They scored too late touchdowns with the Seahawks kind of just being like, whatever. Like, you know, they were just playing pre-thent and whatever, let it happen. So I don't think it was that. The final score looks close.

It was not a close game at all, basically, entirely throughout. But the fact that the Titans did move the ball ever was good to see. Like, Cam Ward got there in garbage time a little bit. Like, we've seen them just like kind of roll over a couple times where it's like, all right, well, I'm just going to run the ball and get out of here. You know, it's like, we're down 20 and just call it a game. They at least tried to come back. So I guess that's a positive for the Titans in a season full of just all negatives for them.

Yeah. And he actually showed a little bit of like, I think pocket awareness was better from him. He avoided a bunch of sacks because they took on a ton of pressure. He ran a little bit more. He seemed reluctant to run earlier this season. Like he had a couple of big scrambles even early, which I thought was interesting. And again, we're talking about, you know, sac of oins being a skill and want to see him. Obviously, his offensive line is going to invite.

pressure at a pretty high rate, and he was able to avoid it, which is really cool to see. So we'll see if there's any growth there down the stretch. Seattle remains a unit. Again, we're not knowing the quarterback situation on the Viking side. They are hosting Minnesota. It's currently between 10 and 10 and 1⁄2, 41 point total. Again, it's probably not, it's probably not JJ at this point. But any thoughts here on Viking Seahawks?

I mean who yeah like probably just blind Seahawks like I don't know if that's crazy but yeah it's I mean there's no match up here where I'd be like oh yeah the Vikings make a lot of sense no no it's a tough tough scene for the Vikings also dealing with some injuries defensively the Seahawks again takeaway from that great Seahawks uh rams game two weeks ago It was just that, like, they almost won that football game despite four interceptions. We saw what the Rams offense can look like against average defenses or below average defenses. And, yeah, Seattle's very, very real. So, right.

And JSN is just, it's so impressive because it's just not like another answer at receiver that you're like, oh, well, we can't like bracket him. we can't double him because we had to worry about this like we still have gotten absolutely nothing from rishit jihad so far which is surprising like nothing like cooper cup still not getting anything done we saw finally a good kenneth walker game um you know the ground game is good but yeah it's just insane what jsn is doing again another scenario where like i don't know we'll get to awards here but like jonathan taylor's been so good and he's been such a favorite and offensive player the year market but like jason's been i mean he's going to break he might might have 2,000 yard

season yeah if he breaks the NFL record i mean you got to give jason yeah in my opinion i mean so he's plus 105 right now jonathan taylor down to minus 120 uh we had someone else collapsed quite a bit yeah he was like minus 400 a week ago um we had someone else chime in here saying gibbs to lead the league in rushing yards i struggled to get there i was looking up the numbers he's at like he's 200 plus behind Jonathan Taylor it's just tough to catch him and like I mean you got five weeks left six weeks left so yeah I mean it's possible it would just require like probably another one of these types of games and Jonathan Taylor did not be awesome down the stretch which I think I mean I think this is more of like last week was more of uh you know not a trend it was

just like a random one week thing for Jonathan Taylor I agree schedule wise would definitely be in Gibbs's favor, but 200 yards is a pretty sizable. He is 16 to 1, but, um, so price, maybe, but I don't know, it's still a little bit tough for me. Yeah. All right. Jacksonville, they win. 27, 24.

They need overtime to get it done against Arizona. The Jags are seven and four. I mean, I don't know how we're here really with the Jags and the Texans, but we are here with the Jags and the Texans. Trevor Lawrence, three picks, a fumble, 18 first downs. They went three of 11 on third down. The Jags were not a really good football team. These events isn't good.

But again, same thing. Cardinals did their job. You don't want to win that football game. You're three and eight. Let's get some talent in here. Let's not mess around. We're not making the playoffs. They did their thing because this.

It's so bizarre how you could have a quarterback situation like this. With Jacoby Brissette kind of, I don't know, decade long journeyman quarterback who looked really bad last year. Awful. Like when you have your franchise quarterback go out and your top five recently drafted wide receiver go out and all of a sudden the offense just takes off. It's such a weird situation.

You're running backs out too. James Conner's out and your back comes out. So like you're down to Michael Carter and Bam Knight who can't run for their lives. And then you have Michael Wilson look like just like a stud all of a sudden, another 100-yard game. Jacob was set 49 attempts again. These three games in a row over 40 plus attempts.

It's nuts. It feels like almost like when the Jets got Joe Flacco a couple of years ago and there was just like five games in a row where Joe Flacko just threw the ball 40 times and like everyone went over all of their props. Flacco with the Browns did it too, right? Yeah. Flacco really this year, yeah. Like Jacoby Brissette could be the new Joe Flacco, or he, this could be totally a blip,

but like it's been three games in a row. So I don't, I mean, maybe, you know, crazier things have happened here. So, but the other Jags, the Bayshall Tudin, Travis E.TN usage did not hold up. Just seven carries for Tudin. 15 carries for E.TN was way more efficient. Not good from the, from the Tudin standpoint there. But overall, they made it work with their like kind of rag tag receiving core, I guess. like Parker Washington and Jacoby Myers

and Brenton Strange came back and had a big impact. Yeah. That was the only problem with the Tootin stuff is that like Tooten's got some juice. But I think this has probably been like the best Travis Atean year. He's like he's looked pretty good.

So it's like if you would have played like maybe here's past it would be easier for Tuton. But like they need to have these situations where they run 65, 70 plays and they both eat because it's like he's just not going to bury AT& is just not playing bad enough to completely lose his job. Now, Arizona's on the road against Tampa Bay. We've got to figure out what's going on Tampa Bay quarterback situation considering what happened with Baker and Teddy two gloves on Sunday night.

And then the Jags are on the road in Tennessee. I think I like Tennessee, Connor. Seven points, six and a half points. I'm not sure that I can get there, but seven, seven, maybe. It looks like six and a half pretty widely available, hard rock, so hard rock, profit X has some sevens.

You're brave man, but maybe, I mean, the way they're trending they played last week. I don't necessarily fully hate it, especially with the Titans playing. I mean, a little bit better run events with Jeffrey Simmons back,

but also the Cardinals, so the Cardinals right now are two and a half point underdogs against the bucks. If you get, if we for sure get Teddy playing and not, Baker, I mean, you'd think that the line would like flip, right? Or do you think that this is like a teddy line? Yeah. Again, we, that's every week.

Like, still fascinated that these just post on a Monday. Yeah. We used to have to wait until Wednesday, these quarterback question markets to go up. If it is Baker, it's like halfway in that. So they do. It's like post it halfway because they don't want to take the loss here. Like, I think if it is Baker, it's got to be at least three and a half, four, right? Like, I would think six and a half, but maybe not six and a half.

But, like, it's, and then the other way, if Teddy starts, I mean, Teddy's, Teddy's real bad, I think, at this point. Just, yeah, it's not going to. Some commercials, coaching football. Like, what's, yeah, what we're doing here? Again, like, what we're set's doing in the face? Like, they're taking a ton of pressure. The Jags have really struggled to get pressure all year. And they were living in the backfields in this game, too.

So, you know, if the bucks can get some pressure, like, they can still be pretty feisty. but you can throw to your tight ends pretty easily against the bucks. And what Tray McBride's been doing has been pretty awesome as well. So, yeah, they're, I think, a fun team, a fun prop team. Again, we're going to start having to pay the freight for it. But, yeah, they've been at least entertaining the watch. And here, you can talk about taking the seven points in Tennessee. I don't know.

I think obviously Tennessee could win that outright. I don't think that they will because we've been in a spot again where, we come back next week and the Jags are 8 and 4 and like we're going to be like are we really talking about the Jags being a playoff team the Jags in a bounce Kansas City or like a you know like a team that we actually think belongs in the playoffs maybe maybe right like if the Chargers can't get it together they just they lost the head to head right the Chargers before the buy lost to Jacksonville the Chiefs lost to Jacksonville the Chiefs like the Jags have the head to head against both of those teams. just kind of wild we talked about it earlier with like the eagles having like the worst vibes of any team that was like four and oh the jags kind of the same thing like they just like they keep winning games Trevor Lawrence is not really playing all that well um if Cohen doesn't seem all that happy with him like yep their defense is not very good I just you know it's one of those things where need to hammer bet whoever we can against them in the playoffs yeah because I mean they play one well they play the Colts twice but one other real team besides them. in the Broncos. But they play the Colts twice. Yeah. I mean, the Colts could stumble a little bit.

Yeah. And we have these two matchups. Like, again, I don't, I think the Colts are comfortably better than Jacksonville. But we have a real scenario here where like the Jags path of the playoff could be the division, which is just kind of wild. Right. Yeah. All right.

He'll keep it going here. The Browns' 24 to 10 against the Raiders who were down bad, fire Chip Kelly. Gino was pressured 10 times, basically a 41% pressure rate. And they got home and took him down a bunch of those times. What we're seeing with Miles Garrett is insane. It's just, it's real bad with the Raiders. Shador looks okay.

But again, we'll see what happens against real competition. Again, I'm not making any wide sweeping good, bad. binary outcomes on Shador. The defense is awesome in Cleveland and they were here again. And I don't think there's any organization right now that's for like the future down as bad as the Raiders are. The Jets, I guess, would be the other team that you can make the discussion of. But at least they handled the trade deadline so well that they got a ton of draft capital

in the next two years of like first and second round picks, that they at least have a path forward. like the Raiders are on the hook for like more money for Gino it's gentie bowers on the defensive side it's Max Crosby it's not really it's not great and you just hired the oldest head coach in the league like organizationally I don't really know where the Raiders are and it's yeah it's bad yeah I mean well the first thing is I think if they had a good offensive lines the whole thing is different the entire narrative is different but their offensive line sucks and so that's the problem that's a problem defense sucks it's also problem and i mean gino's not good enough to overcome battle that's a line play neither is

gentee i mean genties yards before contact is crazy low the under stomach so almost still hit there by the way um we talked to this on friday he did have 18 or 17 carries and he ended up like 51 yards something like that so um brutal yeah crazy shader had some awesome long throws still they kind of like designed some easy ones for him so we got there a little bit like made they tried to make life easy for him and they did they I mean they could but they could very well hide him though in this game like it did they did they did smart like do whatever they did it's good coaching yeah totally it was it was awesome coaching what's going to be interesting is when you put him in a situation where he plays from behind uh what happens then it's going to be wild it's going to be just like you know it's it's

going to be so fun uh probably two to three maybe four picks but it's going to be like a couple of random bombs like we saw so I don't know I'm just to see what the problem market does because I think he's like, he's, I mean, he's not quite Justin Fieldsy in terms of, like, passing, but, like, I'm trying to find a better comp for him because it's like he, he's capable of making throws and so is just, I guess so is Justin Fields, but like, he just like, on his, like, his, like, play-to-play basis and his median outcome is just probably not going to hit that often. Like, Shitterer's going to throw over 250 and three picks or like, I don't know, 100 yards

and, like, you know, nothing. So. Take a bunch of sacks. They take a bunch of sacks and be just a complete disaster. like this was a good matchup for them um and we knew that but i don't know if that's going to be the next week they get the niners who are dead last and pressure rate on the season okay and they're still going to get like three or four sacks i've still not got yeah a couple sacks uh yeah miles garret now a massive favorite for defensive uh play of the year deservedly so just continues

to kind of talked about it like i don't know a month ago maybe even more like it's really hard to win this type of award unless you're breaking the sack record if you're playing on a losing team because we've had one player win defensive player of the year on a losing team in the last 20 years and that was Jason Taylor he did not break the sack record that year but he played really well and there was another great competition there's other viable competitors this year Miles Garrett is the best defensive player in the league and he's going to probably break

the sack record so he's checking the box he's just been absolutely dominant it helps because actually the supporting cast around him is really good it's a combination of things it's like chicken of the egg like i think they're good they also benefit from playing with miles garrett and miles garrett's good because he benefits from playing with some other good defensive linemen so um it's it's harder to really uh really pinpoint and lock him down with you know two guys in the chip uh because the other guys along the defensive front can can win like isa maguire's really good mason graham's had a good Alex Wright's been good.

Like, they have some dogs. And they also have the defensive rookie the year who continues to have 10 tackles every game, tackles for loss. My guy's been, my guy's been good. And now he's like minus 400. So I'm feeling pretty good. Love it. Love it.

Just got to stay. I just watch Browns games. Just don't get rolled up on. Please don't get rolled. Just stay healthy. Is he up every play? Like, I don't even care of the tackle. I just, all right, he's back to the huddle.

Let's go. No one's chasing him down. All right here. What do we have? So six point favorites for the Niners on the road against Cleveland. What are the Raiders doing? They are dogs on the road against the Chargers. Again, full home game.

That Raiders at Chargers game is very much a Raiders home game. They are 10 point, 9.5. 10 point dogs there on the road, the Chargers off the buy. Any thoughts on either of those games? I mean, see if the Niners get any pressure, If they were like 75% strength, I'd be excited to very excited to back them at basically any price. That being said, it's, I think, kind of a bad match for the Niners, who are the cold Browns defense is going to play them well. He's going to get a lot of pressure.

And it's just like probably going to come down to honestly whether Shudor fucks up or not. Like it's going to be like, how many times does Shudder makes mistakes? If he doesn't make that many mistakes, they're going to keep it close, maybe win, but probably lose by three or four. if he makes mistakes they could lose any game by 30 it doesn't really matter at this point for them so yeah i don't know that's that's my big take around in the niners we're obviously going to see them tonight as well so yeah i mean you think robertsillock be able to figure some ways to scheme stuff up but it hasn't been happening so far and again they've they continue to lose impactful players uh every week so i'm sure they'll lose someone tonight and they'll be

under man going to cleveland next week all right the The Falcons win on the road 24 to 10 against the Saints. Mayo's thing here where like Falcons is a dog is probably the way to go about it versus the Falcons his favorites. Kirk Cousins was fine. Yeah, not a lot of takeaways here for me personally. Any thoughts do you have? No, not a time to touch on other than I think Tyler Shug is okay.

I don't think he's like a franchise quarterback, but it's probably better than Rattler. That's, you know, like they couldn't run the ball here. Yeah, like, I think he's better than Rattler. That's, like, my biggest takeaway. And so, like, yeah, like, the Saints are in really tough position because I think that you are definitely in the quarterback market, but you're also in the everything market right now, it seems like. They don't have a ton of, like, franchise players in general.

So, like, you talk about the Raiders. At least the Raiders have Brock Bowers, Max Crosby. Like, they have, like, good, some good players. Chris Olave is the Saints best offensive player? That's a good point. I mean, like, that's, he's not even, like, a big name either, like, nationally. he's just like a we know who he is because we're fantasy bros and like he's a good player but like he's not that good you know he's not like an alpha receiver he's not bro about ours no i mean he's

probably best off as like a one b to be honest and not a one not like a true number one maybe that's some slant some oliv slander but um i think it's probably fair yeah like yeah but we'll see i mean again they need a lot they need their offensive lines still is not quite good enough they got injured a bunch you know a couple guys got injured but yeah still it's It's tough. I think they're just in a really, really tough spot. So they need to keep losing.

Two and nine, it's good. They were favored this week, so they lost. I think officially under five and a half wins cashes, maybe not. Actually, they could technically still win out and still win.

They have some wins on this. Not wins, but they have some winnable games. What do we got next? I remember seeing that. It was like, so they're on the road in Miami. Get back to back Miami,

Tampa. They also have Carolina, the Jets, Titans. Oh, definitely some winnable games, for sure. Some winnable games. I mean,

they could, they could be the Jets for sure, the Titans for sure. And then, I mean, they're probably worse than dolphins and Panthers, but, you know, they could win. Yeah, they just played the Carolina a couple weeks ago. They win. I think they won. Or they beat them.

Oh, they won. Yeah, 177. Yeah, they won. But tough. Tough for the Panthers. So you don't want to tell me on the Panthers being, you know, division leaders tonight if they win, just lost at home to, The Saints three weeks ago.

It's tough, tough. I know you're right. You make a good case. We're still doing the Taysom Hill thing. I thought we had like the Taysom Hill was like Sean Payton. He's like 36 because he's, he went to BYU, right? So he's a Mormon. He did his Mormon thing.

Like, so he was out for years. So he was an older rookie. We're coming off of like major. He blew three ligaments in his knee last week, like in like week 17 last year. I thought we might not seem for the. entire year. Alvin Kamara goes down in this game and it's Taysam Hill

as like the lead dog in the backfields. Yeah, 10 carries for 17 yards. It's amazing. What are we doing here? Like, yeah, Joanne Johnson and Alave are basically the other main guys. Like, this is a mess. All of that, all of it

almost exclusively was super fourth quarter garbage time. Like big time. It was really bad. Yeah. You don't get a lot of that in the NFL like theoretically you think like oh it's going to be garbage time we get some stuff we don't get it as clean as we got it here there was some like legit garbage time stuff here so yeah buddy over and uh talked to him into uh bejean uncorrelated uh nice under five and a half and 50 receiving yards he caught this like 37 yard swing pass yep in the second

quarter and then we refreshed and they gave it or They gave credit as a run. They said it was behind the line scrimmage. Otherwise, he hit it. Yeah, because he had a 32 yard or two. Yeah, no, it didn't count. We didn't get the 37 yard in the first. It was a long, it was a run.

It was totally like, rewind. I was like right on the line. Like, it was just like, who decides that shit? That shit always pisses me off. It's always on the other side that whatever I bet on, it's, you know, like, it's a run when it should be a pass and a pass. And a pass one should be a run, it drives me up a wall. 16 to one would have hit. Oh, tough.

It was kind of just. how the day went in a lot of ways. Brutal. All right. Yeah, the threats to my Carson Swessinger, defensive rookie of year in the odds market, is Jalen Walker. I still don't really, I don't really understand it.

Like, again, James Pierce, Jr. was the way more impressive, way more impactful, edge rookie in this game. He had a ton of pressure. I think he had one and a half sacks. Walker played like 40% of the snaps, had a sack. I just don't see it.

I mean, I'm not saying Jaylon Walker's not a guy, but in terms of him being a defensive rookie of the year threat, like I just don't see it, which is part of why I feel pretty good about where we're sitting with the swash and just stuff. And I do think James Pierce is the guy that I thought he was coming in here. He's a dog. So he's got to shore up his run game,

get himself on the field a little bit more because otherwise he's only getting in on clear passing downs. You can't get in on any pace passing work because he's such a liability against the run right now. He's just flying up field. It's just, you know, smart teams run out of him when they see him in the field because he's taking himself out of the play. But he's coming to get you if you still have the ball. So he'll figure it out.

But what a, we said at the time, and even as a pro James Pierce guy, it was such a bad, just team-building trade. Yeah. Awful. And now here we are. The Rams are your Super Bowl favorites and are sitting with like a top 10 draft pick from the Falcons. Yeah. I mean, they, I wouldn't be surprised if they used that, honestly, on a skill player. Like, they were, they've tried to trade up for Bowers.

They tried to trade up for a bunch of these other guys. Like, Devante's old. I don't know what his contract is if he has one or two year. Puka's always injured. So, like, but plays through it, but just, you know, constantly dinged. So it wouldn't surprise me to take them to take, like, a wide receiver high or like, I mean, I don't think they'd take, I mean, a quarterback? Is that crazy?

Like, a quarterback in the top ten to sit behind Stafford for a year? after you potentially like make a deep playoff run they got i mean it's cool though it's like we don't get to witness something like this very often i'm sure we're getting some insane takes from some people in our network on the rams um you know that are that'll say that they're taking like a safety or something fifth or whatever something yeah it'll be fun um also we have this i i know i'm going to segue into this because we had the night game here with the bucks and the rams that we were talking about you know so teddy bridgewater I don't know why I forgot this was a high school quarterback coach earlier this this year maybe I think even or no last year.

Okay, I thought it was, yeah, it's very recent. I think it was last year because so this story came out in July 14th. He got suspended from his Miami Northwestern coaching job for providing impermissible benefits to players. That was just him paying for ubers for kids and like who needed rides to practice and like food and stuff like that, which he's just trying to be a good dude. Like I don't think he was using it to like recruit players to like do stuff like that. maybe he was but either way um i'm sure he's not the only one doing it if he is and the fact that he was just like coaching and did like nothing nothing and now it's like playing again is wild he was never really all that good when he did play so if we're getting teddy um i mean he was good

at like fine at one point you know he was a good backup in like i don't know seven years ago but yeah it's any one of the backup commercials like those new like backup yeah progressive right yeah it's insane like all right yeah cool come on in bud Get it done. Yeah, the Rams absolutely boat raced 34 to 7. It wasn't even that close and probably took the foot off the gas a little bit in the second half. But it made sense. We have staff for now the runaway favorite to be MVP.

They're 9 and 2. They're well positioned to be, you know, again, top C in the NFC, still a lot of football left. You know, Seattle's in the mix there. The Eagles are still in the mix there. But they're definitely well positioned. to do so again they're such a top heavy roster as we've touched on but right now like they're all healthy yeah things are humming things are humming you know the defense is awesome again like f them picks but when they made them they hit on them for like a couple drafts in a row

so that's also what's fascinating about what happens in april with whatever this pick is because they've been like we don't need to make first round picks we just or trade them or they trade back and just get like 10 more you know what I mean and then just keep like the they keep Ponzi scheming draft picks you know yeah it's cool all for you know 12 day three picks and you know hit on one of them you'll be fine yeah but they uh you know the schedules again at carolina this week pretty massive favorites uh at arizona then they go back to back home to Detroit at Seattle was going to be really impactful and then they finish up with the falcons and cardinals so you know that little week 16 weeks

or 15, 16 stretch against the Lions and Seahawks are the tricky games, but you very much could see a, you know, 15 and 2, 14 and 3 situation where that game against the Eagles matters a ton, right? That loss that they had, again, think about what we could have here. Like, they lost to the Niners on a Thursday night in overtime, and they lost on that last second field, we'll block against the Eagles. We've got to have an 11-0 random team. Like, they're legit.

Yeah, a really good team. I mean, I have very few complaints about this team overall. They're just a good top to bottom with all the defense is playing. They have some, they can run the ball when they need to, but they don't really need to because they can pass the ball literally probably every play if they really want to. It would be totally fine. Didn't see much Terrence Ferguson in the box score here,

which sucked. I was hoping to see more of him, but they brought in, or they had Colby Parkinson kind of be more of the guy there, which I think Ferguson might just kind of be a year two kind of thing. as they bring them along slowly it seems like yeah yeah they're deep defensively they can do a lot of different stuff they're they're a problem um

all right let's take a look here sorry um look at some futures oh i was looking at a defensive player of the year which makes sense um just want to see how big the miles gear number is but yeah the rams of your current super bowl favorite pretty much everywhere eagles right behind them and again the chiefs are kind of in the market

like it's kind of what we're talking about talking about, right? Like we're, I just don't think we should be done with the chiefs. The market's not, but they are between 9 and 10.50 to win the Super Bowl. Colts are next on the board there at 11. I think Seattle still presents some interesting value at 11. You know, the Ravens again, not playing good ball, but 12 to 1. Anything jump out here value-wise with the shifts that we've had this week no it all feels about right to be honest like i don't know if i am super interested in buying low on the bills right now just because it seems like it's like there's no like clear answer to their problems right now with like the injuries yeah i don't see an answer to those problems

to be honest yeah and that's the problem like i'm more inclined to i don't know i mean not excited to take the patriots but probably more inclined to like at least maybe they could figure some stuff out if their offensive line gets healthy and like it's not that we and they i mean they beat the bills it's just like not that we know that they're not a good team, which is they haven't played any other good teams, really. So, like, you know, they could be awesome, too. And maybe they step up to the play. Maybe Drake May just balls out.

Like, that's also, it's in the range of outcomes. I mean, as of now, their schedule is just super, super soft. So, like, there's, we just won't know about that until they're playing, you know, Colts, the chiefs, all in a row. And then we'll probably find out pretty quick. Yeah. Yeah, bills, I just don't, I mean, the Patriots are going to win the division. So, you know, Buffalo's path.

I know that they can't go win playoff games in the road, but you feel better about their opportunities at home because I feel like that's one of the solid home field advantages still in the league, and it just doesn't seem to be happening. So don't believe it with Denver, just the quarterback position. So, yeah, Seattle, I think, is really interesting Kansas City. Like I was trying to look at some of the exactest stuff in the market. Pretty much anything Chiefs-related is going to be between, like,

like 22 to 35 to 1. So you're just not finding any real value right there in the market currently. Yeah, let's see. I want to look at what's our AFC South. Yeah, so Colts have definitely come back down, minus 200, whereas Jacksonville and Houston are kind of strangely in the mix, which is really weird. Again, partially because I don't believe in either club.

I do think that the Colts are a better team, especially with the Colts getting healthy and the secondary. I don't want to take a stab here, but I do think it's indicative of kind of this being closer than maybe we are thinking off the top of our heads based off of what's been going on. Yeah, it's, I mean, well, that's crazy.

Minus, yeah, minus 200. I don't know. It's a tough, tough balance here with the Texans, I mean, plus 600, too, plus 102. Yeah. Same thing, you know, the Broncos are kind of in such a power position. having, you know, the leg up head to head here.

They still have some games against them, right? Like, yeah, they're still week 17 against Denver. They play the charges here in two weeks, too. So, you know, maybe those aren't over, per se. Still kind of a comfortable position for Denver to work at. In the east standpoint, you see the Patriots at minus 600. I'm not advising people to lay 600, but, you know, they're comfortably behind

from a win-law standpoint and they have the win up in terms of head-to-head and they still have the game to play. Yeah, maybe Parlayam. Yeah. Like a parley leg. Yeah. Could be a situation there.

Eastfield's dead with the Eagles, the north. Let's see where these odds are. Packers, Lions, your two favorites. It makes sense. And again, we know they play for the second time. On Thursday morning, which is interesting.

Bears currently your leader. as high as plus 320 on draft kinks any leans here it's kind of i'm not i'm not buying the bears is it really impactful yeah i'm not buying the bears even though they're winning the division right now probably lions given the price but uh i think packers probably win it yeah south is crazy uh again pretty sizable favor for the bucks again the panthers are your current leaders if they win on monday night against the 49ers um I don't think you have an appetite for the Panthers. I do not either.

Definitely not landing with the bucks, though. Probably the right side. Yeah, I mean, bucks are really thin. If Baker's thing ends up being worse than we think. Yeah. The West Rams. This is interesting. I mean, again, they have the leg up one game.

But they still have another meeting to go. Let's see schedule-wise here. The Rams, yeah, I just have the Detroit game. Whereas Seattle, I think it's pretty easy for Seattle, too. Yeah, Seattle is. the Colts, along with the Rams game, and then they have Week 18 at San Francisco. So it's a harder, harder path for the Seahawks. So I think it's probably correct than the Rams.

But I wouldn't hate speculating on the Seahawks. At this point, if you like the Seahawks, I think you just, I think the Super Bowl or out of sea places. Yeah. Yeah. It's a better look. It makes sense. Let's see what that is. Probably five, yeah, five, six on Fandle.

Rams, two, two and a quarter. Eagles right there. Three and change is your top three Lions Packers right behind. And I think we both agree that the Niners winning the NFC would probably surprise this a great deal. They're just too injured. It would take heroic efforts from the offense, I think. Correct.

Yeah, they have to, yeah, just don't see it happening. AFC side feels fairly open considering, you know, your favorite, just lost to your co-favorite and your co-favorite six and five. But here we are. 550 look. We were, 550 was the Chief Super Bowl price three weeks ago. It's pretty interesting.

Yeah, I think that's probably the best look on the board, to be honest. I'm not really buying anyone else. Yeah. I mean, the same price is really all these teams. They're all just bunched up.

It's just a bunch of so much hold here. And the books are just going like, figure it out. Who do you like? Right. Oh, crazy. Yeah, it's crazy. All right.

Let's go to Player Features. MVP we saw Stafford again Thought it was going to be a two-man race Stafford does that in a prime time spot Again The tie was always going to go to Stafford I thought with the experience

And then you know have a good game In an island game That holds a ton of weights here I know you're not laying 250 not Stafford but any thoughts No I think it's his to lose at this point Barring like a collapse or a couple of really bad Primetime games

Yeah I mean that I mean you didn't play well against Seattle They won the football game And that's good enough So defensive player of the year We don't have to look at because that is a Miles Garrett Offensive rookie of the year is interesting I don't have a strong lean But I think this is still a pretty fluid market

You made the case for a couple of weeks with Tyler Warren His price is kind of held He hasn't had like a real blowup game But I think he still could go out and win this I do think Treveon Henderson is interesting I think he would just need like massive games At this point because the two receivers have been so good at the top any thoughts here i think dart is interesting if they win any other games comes back and plays games

so like plus 380s not bad there um yeah i mean that's about as far as i can go to be honest maybe maybe warren still but still he's just like he needs a couple string together a couple good games because he really hasn't lately yeah so many miles to feed there that makes it tough um and john taylor's been been so so good um comeback player the year i hate this award i don't even understand it um am i comparing what mcalfrey's done to DAC, am I comparing the level of comeback relative to what they're coming back from? I don't know what it means, but they've both been awesome. So was Aiden Hutchinson, I don't know.

No idea. Yeah, I'm just, I'm not betting this market. Honestly, I just, I have no idea. Yeah, it's, it's dumb. I mean, Shobie Bresset, 150 to 1. Yeah. What are we talking about? Like, I don't even know.

I don't know. I don't get it. I have no idea. It always confuses me. Steph Diggs. Steph Diggs has been awesome. Yeah, I don't know. Defensive rookie there we touched on.

Pretty nice look for Swestershire here. Jay Walker is next in line. And yeah, I think Eminem War 825 would be a better look, but I don't even want to water down the position. Yeah, anything else with people? No, I don't think so. Honestly, it was a good. Good run down to the awards market there at the end.

And yeah, excited to get back. at the problem market this week. Awesome. All right. Appreciate everyone hanging out with us. Subscribe. Come back next week at the week off, no prop show. So for Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see all next time. Thanks, everybody.