Move The Line - Move The Line - Week 13 Betting Recap & Week 14 Early Predictions!

Episode Date: December 1, 2025

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Hello and welcome to move line presented by Sharpstack. Ryan Noonan joined here as always by Connor Allen coming off of Wild Week of Games Thanksgiving. How was your holiday, bud? Yeah, holiday was good. My wife made some mac and cheese that she found from TikTok. And so it was very good. It was like the insane amount of cheese and cream and butter and all the stuff. And can't lie, it was pretty awesome.
Starting point is 00:00:32 Nice. And you're out in California still. You get to go on a hike after the show. And it's, you know, we got about eight inches of snow here. So you're, you know, I'm trying to golf, too. We played some pickleball yesterday. Might go, you know, hit the ball, hit some golf balls, something like that. I'm trying to do like a par three course or something, just like something easy.
Starting point is 00:00:54 But might end up just doing the driving range. I don't know. We'll see. I don't have my clubs. So that'll be another adventure. but we'll figure it out. You almost have to because you can. Exactly. That's what I'm saying.
Starting point is 00:01:04 It's going to be a while before I can really do anything else. Yeah. I'll jump right into it. We'll remind folks, Black Friday, Cyber Monday sale still going on today. Actually, Monday, the last day. So if you head over to 4.4.com slash plans right now our Picks package, which is a full calendar year, NBA, finish NFL with us. We have, you know, MMA, NASCAR stuff, baseball.
Starting point is 00:01:27 We'll kick back up. right now 50% off you get 50% off sharp stack as well and again another 12 year you know 12 month full rolling year subscription hit us up if you have any specific questions but again no promo code needed discounted already in the site on the plans page so 444.com slash plans uh we'll be back on friday for prop drop we missed it last week i know i missed it hopefully uh you know slop also had himself a good turkey day uh be able to great weekend of football it started on thanksgiving three awesome games with a dog wins outright another dog wins on Friday we keep more casual we you know no buy it's just going to be really hard for us to bang through the entirety of the week 13 slate and then also kind of pull forward week 14 talking about future so take you wherever you want what is when I talk about week 13 what's the one of the things that pops in your head first man I mean I think it's really tough there's a lot of things talk about but I
Starting point is 00:02:22 think that the the main one here is probably the the bears went over the eagles for me I mean, that was probably one of the most impactful because, you know, everyone's been calling them schedule merchants, which I think is 100% true. You know, it's like they've been playing and beating up on a pretty bad schedule, not even beating up, winning close games against a bad schedule. And so now they play the Eagles. They just dominate the line of scrimmage. I mean, like, we're double-teaming guys when they needed to double-team them. Like, just the running game was incredible. And so I think that execution showed to me that, like, I don't know, maybe not this team.
Starting point is 00:02:57 is legit but like they can figure some stuff out you know so like and they've consistently i think reinvented themselves as the season's gone on we've talked about it almost every week on the show it's like they started the season as like a team with that couldn't really run the ball they were relying too much on californs the defense wasn't good enough um but then now they become this team that like creates havoc on defense and causes turnovers and then offensively can run the ball and if calip williams does anything then that's good he still missed way too many throws he missed like three or four like easy throws but then the touchdown to commit was ridiculous i mean that was like a wild throw like rolling out to his left and then through it you know back over and like like rolled is
Starting point is 00:03:34 like not many court i don't know of any of a quarterback's outside of like mahomes josh allen and i don't know maybe joe burrow can make a throw like that like that was incredible so yeah it's it's a team that i think is probably going to make the playoffs at this point what's what are the playoffs for the bears it's like 90% right something like that's great yeah i mean they are definitely, definitely looking like it's going to be harder for them, even though the schedule is tough. I mean, where we had to make the playoffs here. Yeah, they are minus 320 on draft Kings to make the playoffs. If we look at the New York Times playoff sim, they have the Bears at a 77% chance to meet the playoffs.
Starting point is 00:04:17 Yeah, that makes sense. Yeah. So it's just pretty tough. I'll pop that up and share some of that here as we kind of move forward to yeah I mean it seemed like I was looking at this morning and I can pull it up excuse me I think it was really intentional I think they had the fastest time to throw of the week um so like you know with the bears the bears right we've been talking about how like Caleb has been holding on the ball so long he's been doing a great job at like you know avoiding pressure but it seemed like an intentional thing here that they weren't going to lose the game that way. And, yeah, it was really fascinating to see how they were going to play defensively with kind of the pieces coming back. And I don't know, you're interesting.
Starting point is 00:05:05 Like, that was their best win. The last two weeks have been their best two wins. The Steelers was their first win against a team with a winning record at the time. You know, that we get into this point in the season, not a playoff team because I don't think the Steelers are making the playoffs at this point. But that was their best win, a road win in an island game. against the defending Super Bowl champs who that defense has looked you know kind of like one of the best units in the league and they just go out and
Starting point is 00:05:29 absolutely run it down their throats from the jump oh super impressive so huge game coming up this week because like for all of the bears packers lore there's really like they're never good at the same time they're never like in terms of just like fake rivalries like logistically like fan bases hate each other but not really like you know they kind of do um they're always in the same division they're very much old original NFL teams and like but they're all they just haven't had many like big important games at the same time and this is one of this is going to be one of them kind of this week so um fascinated to to get into that i don't know one of my bigger
Starting point is 00:06:14 takeaways is staying on Thursday night felt like regardless of what was going to happen with Joe Burrow that we were going to see a version of the Ravens offense that I think you and I anticipated to start the year. Yep. You just again didn't see it. So as good as Burrow was, 14 points for the Ravens against this Bengals defense. And if for all the cases you want to make that they're approved that they're playing better, like it's the same dudes, like Trangerson's out.
Starting point is 00:06:48 Like it's just not a good defense. maybe they're not like historically the worst defense ever as dv oa had them trending but 14 points for the ravens i don't know what to do yeah i think it's something's wrong with lamar i mean something something's up he can't he's not running as well something's off mentally he's missing throws you know timing is off derrick henry doesn't look good and then the defense isn't playing as well as it should like it's all those factors combined results in this raven's team that just isn't really very good right now it seems like yeah i mean they are well positioned at this point um you know and part of that is just based off of what's going on with pittsburgh but also
Starting point is 00:07:30 staying in the same game the bangles are live uh it's thin yeah it's very very very thin um they play this week in buffalo a team that they've kind of had their number and some big games here in the borough Allen era. There's a path for them still, surprisingly. They have eight losses. I think you can go nine and eight and win this division, right? The Steelers and Ravens are both six and six. They play still twice.
Starting point is 00:08:00 So they basically, Bengals need to win out and they need a split on the Steelers and Ravens game. And they're very, very much live and very interesting, right? Like, again, they're going to play other playoff teams if they were to make it in. good teams that are probably going to be able to take advantage of this bengal's defense. But we just see a different level when Burrough is healthy, 32 points, kind of doing whatever you wanted back there without T. Higgins. And they're very live and very interesting.
Starting point is 00:08:32 Yep. I mean, I already know what's going to happen. They're going to beat. They're going to win the next four games and then somehow lose the Browns at home and not make playoffs. As like, and you're going to get all the tweets of like, Ravens can win it in, minus 10 or minus 11 and they're going to like lose outright or you know it's going to be a really close game it's like borderline inevitable it seems like that'd be so that'd be wilds but they are I see they're they're fun they're like I I mean we need the Ravens or the Browns to make it
Starting point is 00:09:01 in over the Steelers like please we just need yeah not the Steelers yeah not the Steelers uh some other news and again like is a fantastic slate we start to unpack some of these spreads is the afc south is the a c south conner going to have three playoff teams gosh i mean well we touch on a little bit like that well the colts we'll start with the colts the colts the colts problem is daniel jones just like can't really move out there he's like statue didn't look good i'm going to bring off the playoff sim too while you're talking just yeah uh and if they can't run the ball they become i mean very reliant in passing
Starting point is 00:09:41 which i think can work with daniel jones healthy but he's not healthy it's not going to work and then the Texans are super relying on their defense so they're like you know their offense can't really do much of anything um their defense is awesome where there's a jags who seem to kind to keep i don't know rolling off wins against bad teams and then good teams they've beaten a couple good teams too where it just like doesn't make sense how it's all come together but it's there so if we get three of them like i don't love any of them but uh i mean someone someone someone has to make it from the afc and it's looking less and less likely that it's going to be the initial that we thought yeah we could have a real it could be fascinating this is the current
Starting point is 00:10:20 standings if you use the toggle to look at their projected standings they do give us three afc south teams lions missing chargers and lions get bounced in the projected um lions another takeaway um they're the thursday nighter they are home to dallas who seems to be another team that's completely rejuvenated. Unfortunately, they're probably just a little too late to the party. The tie might end up helping, but part of it is you're going to get, and it looks like you're projected, you're going to need to win 11 games probably. You're going to have, you know, the path for the 49ers, which we laid out so early on, the schedule was so easy. They did not trip up in a spot in Cleveland, which, you know, could have happened. It would have made sense,
Starting point is 00:11:08 but, you know, it didn't. You have the bears who continue to, win games. And even if they don't win the division, I can still very easily finish with, you know, 10-11 wins. And that gets super complicated in terms of the lions and cowboys who are chasing here. So, you know, we have the Thursday night game, which is kind of a loser leaves talent situation where it's going to be really hard for the loser. But it's going to be probably really hard for the winner, too.
Starting point is 00:11:37 And that's kind of what we're getting here on in this projected standing. So, yeah, the Lions, we just, I like Green Bay in that game. Injuries, obviously, in that game, hurt too. Losing Amarrah, I think really impacted that offense. We saw, you know, a great James game, but very limited if they needed to scheme wins, right? Singles and doubles were really hard to come by late in that game. They had to use Jemir Gibbs a lot in those situations. You had to get, like, Tom Kennedy heavily involved.
Starting point is 00:12:09 it's never an ideal situation right uh obviously tesla we thought was going to be maybe you know popping in that game and you just still can you into the field so tough situation for the lions uh they also look like they're on the outside looking in yeah it's i mean when you look at the upcoming games too like cowboys game is going to be really tough for them then they get the rams the week after um then steward's viking so lightens up a little bit but not like a cakewalk teams either way like i would definitely think the lions are going to win but uh you know it's not going to be easy and then they of the Bears in Chicago in January 4th on January 4th like disaster set up three like I would consider that a really tough game I'll you know pull out the the Jared golf splits when we
Starting point is 00:12:52 get there about the weather as long as that cooperates it's you know the way things are trending in Chicago it's definitely going to be there a month out from now should be pretty pretty cold yeah yeah the Jags took care of business the other game was the Texans Colts we speculated on this last week on this episode that you know this is just kind of getting really interesting the dynamic of what's going on with Indy the defense obviously you know got a nice little boost with guys getting healthy
Starting point is 00:13:20 with you know various award coming back and then they lose this week early they lose sauce gardener to a calf injury that's probably going to be a week multiple weeks probably you're seeing this more like with the NBA or teams are just like really cognizant of a calf and how that can lead to, you know, whether it can be a knee or can be an Achilles. So if the Colts have legit playoff AFC Super Bowl aspirations, they need to not rush
Starting point is 00:13:48 sauce back, but they also need to get there. And that's kind of an interesting piece too, right? So, yeah, they need to win. They are road favorites in Jacksonville this week, which I think is really interesting where we're sitting at now. Yeah, one and a half basically painted across the board of the 47.5 point total. And then the other game that's fascinating, the Texans who are an absolute unit defensively are on Sunday night against Kansas City, again, another spot where it kind of feels, at least are the Chiefs. The Chiefs, I think, are going to have a hard time making the playoffs if they don't win this game.
Starting point is 00:14:21 The Texans, again, still have a path through the division, which gets a little bit complicated, partially because the Chiefs can't lose another team, other tiebreaker to all these teams that they're fighting with. as Mayo pointed out when we met with them this morning, I think the Colts are the only team that they have the playoff tie break against. You know, having lost the Bill's game, the Texans game, the Jaguars game, it's really, really tricky for them. So any thoughts on those two matchups specifically with Kansas City between three, three and a half at home? Total is also kind of all over the board.
Starting point is 00:14:57 Yeah, I mean, I don't mind Kansas City. It's like, I think we're kind of getting to the point, though, almost of what we were talking about with Baltimore like at some point I love what they have on paper but they just need to put it all together in this yeah we keep carrying the water for them and like you're letting us down I know they are letting us down for the first time ever like I mean historically this would be great but this Texans team like I hate to say it kind of matches up well against the chiefs like it's a it's a really tough kind of grinded out game I think because the chiefs aren't just going to be able to like throw it all over the yard you know which ideally I think
Starting point is 00:15:29 they do and so i mean this one here what do you say the total is 42 and a half yeah so we've seen fandle at 41 and a half um there's some 42s draft kings moved to 42 and a half um yeah it's a little light but defenses are pretty great yeah it's that's tough i mean uh yeah i would probably lean under honestly it's just sounds crazy but um or the opposite happens and it just like you know unleashes C.J. Stroud and Moans go back and forth at it, but I just don't see that happening, really, with the Texans defense. The Derek said, it's awesome. Like, he's been so good.
Starting point is 00:16:10 The whole thing is, I mean, it's their, you know, it's a great defense. They just don't have any, they don't have any weaknesses. They have depth. They've lost some secondary death, but not starting depth. They've had, like, some guys fill in for guys that were injured, and those guys, I'm getting hurt. And the starters came back. So, like, their injuries in the secondary are guys that are ideally not needed to begin with
Starting point is 00:16:33 if they are able to stay fully healthy. Texans Colts Under was one of my favorite on the board yesterday. You're probably right. And I think the Texans at three and a half is probably a fairly interesting side. Again, like Daniel Hunter and Will Anderson are playing so well. If there's a situation where they just didn't have, you know, Garrett doing what he's doing, like you can have real defensive player of your discussions there but um yeah tricky and again the texans as currently constructed are not afraid to go into kansas city in a big spot on a sunday night
Starting point is 00:17:09 and play that game they've done it a bunch they've had you know these teams have met in the playoffs a bunch in kansas city so there's not there's not going to be a moment situation where these guys are caught up and they're just the first time that this team has been there right we might have some of those things with the bears uh you know some of these at the patriots um where they just haven't been with this young team you know new head coach young quarterback that's not it's not the Texas
Starting point is 00:17:34 they are kind of ready for this so that one's going to be pretty interesting any thoughts on the Colts Jags game Colts being road favorites there in Jacksonville I mean I think a lot of it depends on I mean depends on Daniel Jones like I want to back I like the culture significantly better than the Jags
Starting point is 00:17:54 but I mean Jags Jags run defense is pretty solid. And, you know, again, it kind of the exact same thing could happen here with, like, you can't run the ball and you're putting the ball into Daniel Jones' hands and he's injured, then it's just, I mean, it's a tough sell. Yeah, it's tricky.
Starting point is 00:18:09 The sauce thing's not great. No. But, again, I think we both, I don't know, speak for you. I definitely think that Jacksonville is fraudulent. It doesn't mean that they're not going to win a bunch of games and they have a pretty easy if we look at their schedule, who they have still to go.
Starting point is 00:18:26 right so they just played Tennessee they got this jacksible game again two against the Colts which is a huge piece of this those head to heads they still have another Tennessee game and then a road game in Denver which is tricky so really huge huge impact on these two in the matchups specifically whereas you know if you look at the Texans once we get past you know this Colts or this Chiefs game Arizona who again Arizona what's been going on with Jacoby Brissette is awesome he they are taking part of it is is even more impressive. They are getting pressured at such an insane rate. I think he was pressured again, like 54% of his dropbacks. That's crazy. Last week against the Bucks, that's going to be, you know, a situation that is going to be a problematic against the Texans. The Raiders, broken.
Starting point is 00:19:15 The pressure there is insane. We just saw 10 sacks, you know, last week or two weeks ago, I guess, with the Browns. The offensive line issues for the Chargers is going to be a problem for the Texans. and then they get Indy again. So the Texan schedule comparatively to these other two AFC Sal teams is significantly softer, especially when you consider how they match up specifically against them. That makes these head-to-head matchups between the Colts and Jacksonville pretty impactful. But again, when you go back to the playoff pitcher, there's still a path for both of these teams,
Starting point is 00:19:49 right, considering that the charger schedule is a little bit tricky. And the chiefs are working from so far behind. to this point. You know, they can basically, they can maybe lose one more, but probably not. What are the odds for the Texans to,
Starting point is 00:20:05 like win the division or make the playoffs right now? Let's see. Let's see. To make the playoffs, they are minus 134 on Fandul. Okay. That's your best bet to win the division here. Let's see, plus 350.
Starting point is 00:20:24 It seems like the way to go. I don't hate that I mean what are they right now behind the I mean they're giving a 50 23% chance to win the division is that what that that I don't know it's 23% the chance to no that's okay that's
Starting point is 00:20:37 that's the win the division this is the playoff number division number yeah okay so the the odds there would not agree with whatever odds we'd be playing I don't think um but it's true yeah I don't hate it I mean both there's one game behind
Starting point is 00:20:53 they're scheduled they could easily win almost like whatever four or five games correct and you look at the colts how it lays up and again they didn't have a quarterback with a broken leg right um they just lost oscar and you're probably for a couple weeks it matters right uh their gift for getting on the other side of this road game is on jacksaville is back-to-back roadies in seattle tough uh san francisco getting healthier um starting to find a little bit of a pass rush there's you know the key on white trade is nice uh clean pharaoh's playing well they got bryce huffback um niners are you know they're still they've taken on so much water from an injury standpoint but their offense is healthy right so and then
Starting point is 00:21:38 they get jacksville again and then they got to go to Houston so like the colts path is super duper tough like that's that's the path for the chiefs is that the chiefs kind of win out you know the colts kind of stub their toe here a couple times down the stretch which would make a ton of sense, I think, to everyone that could happen. And again, the schedule is by far the hardest. But they'd be down bad for the Colts. Like, we're talking about the Colts being, you know, number one seeing the AFC two, three weeks ago.
Starting point is 00:22:06 And here we are, like, they're the path forward for the chiefs to get in playoffs. And I don't, I mean, I don't know. We've got to sacrifice someone here. You know, someone needs to be sacrificed. Otherwise, the playoffs are just going to be, I mean, the playoff picture right now currently for the AFC, the early even projected one. I mean, three AFC South teams. I don't know what the odds would have been on that,
Starting point is 00:22:29 like three of those teams making it, but I don't know how high would have been for me to consider even taking it because there's just no shot that I could have thought this would happen. Well, let's go through the Chargers because they have the Chargers out. Part of that is, I mean, that is one of the head-to-head matchups, specifically, right? The Chargers are having to play Houston in a week 17. This is a really, really impactful game. When you look at the Chargers schedule,
Starting point is 00:22:53 they've basically, they have no more cupcakes. They're on the other side of it. Philly this week, tough spot. Philly, you know, look at a bounce back, extended rest. At Kansas City, those games are always dynamic, means a ton. Dallas is looking like a completely different football team than who we saw early in the season on both sides of the ball. They have the game specifically against Houston.
Starting point is 00:23:17 It's going to be a massive, massive game. Regardless of what happens here, unless I'm going to, Even so. Even, I mean, the Chargers would have to lose, I guess, Philly, Kansas City, and Dallas for the Houston game to mean less. But that one, there's just no way forward that that doesn't mean a lot. And they've got to go to Denver. So, like, Jacksonville and, I mean, the Colts and the Chargers, their path is significantly harder than the rest of these teams we're talking about. Yeah, that's crazy.
Starting point is 00:23:46 Especially at Denver, like, final week. I mean, these are all playoff or fringe playoff teams, basically. and good ones so that's really tough that's that is brutal for the chargers especially justin herbert like fractured his hand or something like that too yeah which i think said he doesn't expect to miss time but uh i like daniel jones like he's playing but he's clearly not right yeah that's a tough one the only path i guess for the chargers there is a scenario where Denver is locked in doesn't really need that game right they can't catch new england or something for the number one seed or they're locked into the number one
Starting point is 00:24:23 and seed. They've already won the division, and then they maybe get a light second half. But I don't know. I don't even know. That's kind of why you see the Chargers currently projected to be on the outside looking in, which again, another situation would be very tough. Like they've also just had so many injuries. The offensive line injuries are mounting.
Starting point is 00:24:46 That gets tricky. It's going to be some interesting, exciting teams on the outside from a project. standpoint, right? Like Chargers, chiefs, Cowboys, lions, like those are fun teams.
Starting point is 00:24:59 You know, like there's some, you know, taking on the jaguars into the playoffs. Instead, feels like a pretty bad. Yeah. When you'd be probably
Starting point is 00:25:10 you get the Panthers out of there too, but they just keep winning. Random games. They just beat the Rams. Crazy. I think the two biggest upsets of the year. Right? They win in Green Bay.
Starting point is 00:25:20 Yeah, 14 point dogs. and then Green Bay occasionally looks like an absolute unit. And then they beat the Rams who came in. Everyone's riding high seemed like a lock for the number one scene in the NFC. And now they kind of bring the Rams back to the pack where the NFC gets a little bit more interesting at the top because of the Panthers loss. And yeah, we don't want to see the Panthers. Like I know you don't believe it.
Starting point is 00:25:49 I don't think anyone really believes it. a spot where uh what's their schedule look like well let's see they let's see what they're to make the play off odds are you know the panthers play for the panthers play football like syracuse plays basketball except worse because they can't shoot threes like they just they play like a shitty zone and like you know like they like syracuse just plays the zone and like no one knows what to do with it and the panthers just like play boring they run the ball they get like three to four yards on first down run the ball get three to four yards a second down and then find some way to convert on third down and it's like that's what it was all they were murdered the clock i mean we're just like
Starting point is 00:26:25 absolutely annihilating the clock uh and the rams just kept turning they turned ball over a couple times and like you know they had some success but it was it wasn't great and then the panthers just found a way to like kind of piece together on offenses like they've done for the last six weeks basically um again don't think bryce young played particularly well just i mean he had the one big throw to or the cocker and then the tets score we're big um but get longed down and distance late downs to your point yeah it was it's just i mean i guess that's a skill i don't know it's just very strange to me that like this team keeps winning and
Starting point is 00:27:03 i don't get it they've been just so horribly inconsistent right like there's no way you watch that game against san francisco on monday night and you're like so that's a playoff team or it's a team that's going to beat the perceived top team in football it seemed like a weird set up right there's the whole west east situation and like the weather looked like it was going to be a little wonky but then i was like it's a short reef for carolina they have so many injuries like they were missing starting linebackers they were missing starting safety it's like uh it's like they're kind of getting bailed out like the rams are for this being a a tricky schedule spawn tricky matchup and then no they just they it's third down third and 12 yeah here we go uh fourth down just yeah
Starting point is 00:27:50 It was crazy. It hated that. It's something that I know I shouldn't do. And they know what it happens is happening live. I could feel it early. I'm like some like juicy props, some couple different like things that I really liked. I'm just like,
Starting point is 00:28:04 yeah, you know what? I'm just going to drive it down a little bit. I'm just going to bring the Rams money line into it. A bunch of really good bets lost because I did something that I've been doing this for decades. And no, I shouldn't do. I did it. And I deserve to lose.
Starting point is 00:28:20 those bets uh you know like under forty and a half longest field goal in cleveland great bet not even close lost because uh you know i have the rams money line tied to it like an absolute donkey so you know what i didn't even actually bet that this week for some reason because i was i'm in a prison state so um i wasn't thinking about it i like kind of you know laid off the action there um so i took it to the book that i know cash is in if it uh there's no kicks so that was good good yeah that's good that's another i mean so basically which which books even do that now it's just 365 i think mgm i think mgm too um yeah but i did it on 365 so might be it i don't know if there's any others um take it yeah didn't matter keeping that 365 account real clean um by doing
Starting point is 00:29:12 stupid stuff like that um all right uh yeah it's it's it's it's it I'm fascinated by the Panthers, but, yeah, the odds to make the playoffs are pretty long. If you like them, 410 on Fandall seems a little off market. I mean, that seems, who do they play coming up? I mean, like, they obviously suck, but like, what are their odds like, you know, they need to win what, like two more games than make the playoffs? Yeah, tough, tough slate. Here's part of it is their path would be just to win the division because they're on a buy this week.
Starting point is 00:29:43 Three division games, but two Tampa Bay games. you know and they and then the Seattle game mixed in there too which just just a look at number just for people that are like hey I like Seattle minus one and a half I we all would but that's this is a look at line so yeah that's that's part of it um so we look at the playoff sim their path would probably be through the division right 21% chance to make the division which is basically the same for them to make the playoffs so um you know for looking at betting that it you would be what was that 410 yeah 410 on fandul we go to the south specifically yeah not my there you just take that um 440 to win the division which i would not do
Starting point is 00:30:30 and would not advise you to do no don't think that's the right move so bucky irvin coming back you know other receivers seem to be coming back like the bucks are getting a little bit healthy I don't think they're a true threat in the conference overall, but they are, they're trending in the right direction. I don't know why Falcons even deserve a spot to be listed here. We've assured the Saints, we should probably do the same of the Falcons,
Starting point is 00:30:55 who again, as favorites, cannot win against the Giants or against the Giants. Crazy. Yeah, absolutely crazy. Yeah, so the Chargers, the path is harder than I thought there. Yeah, any other, takeaways anything else that jumps out to you for week 13 we can start to jump into some of these week 14 spreads I think the I mean we already touched on the Panthers Rams upset I think the main ones around Thanksgiving
Starting point is 00:31:23 and then Broncos narrowly get it done again last night on Sunday football I mean it's crazy how they keep winning they're also another team that their offense does not inspire me at all and the Vikings trotting out Max Brosmer was legitimately disrespectful to the fraternity of the NFL. I mean, an embarrassing, embarrassing effort.
Starting point is 00:31:48 And yeah, I don't know what his number was. I think it was really, I think it was like one six years, only one really low. I thought about playing the under. I played the Aaron Jones under instead. So I usually don't like to double dip in case maybe I'm wrong. But yeah, I mean, that was, that was pathetic. It was pretty bad.
Starting point is 00:32:07 It was pretty bad. Yeah, it was. it was pretty rough and good for him one and done they've already kind of announced it looks like that uh j j mccarthy will be back um and i think part of that was just like he's just the white knight like what would again what would there'd be so many good takeaways because it was good football but like if we had another j j j mccarthy laid egg uh which is probably likely what would have happened going up to seattle yeah it starts it starts to become something that you know you just can't spin what your way out of uh it's a little bit of a softer
Starting point is 00:32:40 landing spot giving a week off and then getting him home this week against the commander's on a you know i guess shorter week um it's a better better spot for for jj to bounce back is it time to buy low on some j j j mccarthy stuff justin jefferson stuff maybe that could be like a crazy bylaw i mean he's done nothing and like he's going to be put posting on instagram and twitter soon about how upset he is and then they'll give him 15 targets yeah i've been touching on that like he's been one of like the divo receivers that hasn't been into that, you know, mode yet. Like, it's just been a guy that seems to have stayed above that.
Starting point is 00:33:16 And they have had some, you know, wonky quarterback situations over the years while he's been there. But I think he's finally, we finally broken the man's spirit between, you know, J.J. Carson, Wentz, J.J. again, and Max Browser, is pretty rough, pretty rough, considering how Donald had him cooking for a bit last year. Two catches for four yards. I mean, that's just rough. Jeff in the chat here brings up saying that he Alted Brosmer to 225 plus
Starting point is 00:33:44 to plus 300 did Slop put you up to this I mean this is like yeah it's sloppish If Slop did that We're going to have a word on Friday because that is crazy And I mean you need to tweet that out honestly That's so embarrassing that like you that's so you can just You know take it I mean that's that's crazy
Starting point is 00:34:01 That's a wild wild bet right there And I've made some dumb bets that might be the worst It's great he was getting three to one You know, and Jeff's, Jeff's credits, you know. Sure. I did play the DeAndre So Thunder and he lost, he won in the first quarter. Or he went over in the first, I think first half. Yeah, first half.
Starting point is 00:34:20 Yeah. Because, you know, apparently the Bears are the best run blocking team in the league. So. True. Jeff, Jeff, just wanted to check in on Cooper Flag. I want to see how that's going for you, bud. After your egregious Cooper Flag is a bust, you know, tweet the other day, the 18-year-old seems to have figured it out.
Starting point is 00:34:40 Shocker that we shouldn't bury, you know, generational talents after, you know, 10 games, tough seen. Just time to delete those tweets, though, but it's okay. All right. Yeah, this slate's going to be awesome. Like, we occasionally get a handful of really good games, you know, like some games you would slas, like must watch. And we just don't have many stinkers this week.
Starting point is 00:35:04 I don't think we need to touch much on the Titans Browns game. coming up I don't think we need to touch about you know the commanders and Vikings dolphins jets we can you know before we do I guess um Jeff doesn't like Coops rebounding I guess um here we are Connerney thoughts on oh draft we're coming up yeah Jets just winning man I mean what the heck like this is pissing me off I thought they're in contention. It's almost, I think it's the Titans. I will say, though, because the Titans have Cam Ward,
Starting point is 00:35:46 maybe you leave some options for open for the draft to, like, bet on someone else to go number one. Yeah. Because then, I mean, well, but also someone could still trade up, but like, I think there could be speculative stuff on the draft. I haven't looked at odds at all. Have you? Like, I mean, there's, there are odds for sure.
Starting point is 00:36:02 There are odds for number one pick, but yeah, it's, it's, I think the, one of the edge rusher linebacker hybrid from Ohio State I think is one of the current favorites or the Bain kid from Miami I think those are like the two So we have
Starting point is 00:36:22 Arvel Reese I think you're talking about Is he in Maine? Is he an edge though or a linebacker? Yes he's playing both Kind of like what like Jaylon Walker did in Georgia last year But I think he's going to be an edge at the next level I mean is that too much of like a not to get too deep in the weeds is that too much of like a transition though is he is he a tweener you know what I mean is like is that going to scare people off I don't know I think Bain's probably the better pure edge rusher yeah that's having a better season mm-hmm he's so right now the odds are heavy favorites for quarterbacks Mendoza plus 165 simpson plus 275 then it's dante more another quarterback then it's Arval Reese plus 550 bain plus 650 and then you got just a bunch of guys that have no chance to go number one. one with Lenore Sellers, Archman.
Starting point is 00:37:07 I mean, they just haven't put any thought into this market at all. Yeah. Carson Beck. Keldrick Falk. I don't know. I mean, I think honestly what we should do is at some point in the next... Keldryk Falk's not going number one. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:37:19 The next couple days is like try and find which defensive prospects are actually the best and probably just poured offensive line and just put like a couple bucks on each of them because there's a legit chance of Titans just stick and pick and it's not going to be quarterback, which I feel almost not certain, but very, very likely they're going to have the number one pick at this point. Yeah. It feels like Reese or Bain probably. I mean, I think Caleb Downs is probably the best prospect, uh, defensive prospect,
Starting point is 00:37:45 but I can't see a team taking a safety as first overall. First overall, right. Yeah. But I think he's awesome. But, um, I mean, that entire Ohio state defense has got like, and they have like five first rounders in that defense, uh, they're, they're really good. But yeah, um, obviously prospects of a trade are real. but, you know, you have to listen, especially when you have the quarterback, right?
Starting point is 00:38:06 We've seen enough from Gambore. They're not going to take a quarterback at the top of the draft. And there's not, like, a clear guy to address it. But, yeah, there's probably some good speculative sprinkles to be had. I mean, also, too, like, are any of these guys worth even worth trading up for? Like, I don't think so. Mendoza's fine. I mean, some people like Mendoza, but, I mean, I've watched him a couple times.
Starting point is 00:38:26 He thinks he's okay. Like, he could be a good NFL quarterback, but I don't know if, like, a team's going be willing to mortgage like three firsts to move up or two first to move up. So I don't know. I'm going to, I'll ask the college ball knowers as well and see if we can find any value here. This is a pretty good opportunity. Yeah, it probably isn't like, look, Mendoza gets Ohio State this week in the Big Ten championship where he's going to get those NFL caliber defensive guys coming up against him.
Starting point is 00:38:52 So that's going to be interesting. Jeff, same. F the picks, give us, or get the draft, give us picks for tonight. um jeff these picks are like i mean there's a legit chance you could hit like a hundred to one or 170 to one here like to go first if we like can actually find someone who who matters i mean no one was talking about travon walker at this point you know like um so i don't know come not in a hundred to one tonight well we might who knows yeah why unless um all right six points five and a half actually out there uh yeah mostly five and a half actually the six
Starting point is 00:39:36 is kind of a rogue number 43 and a half 44 and a half totals um steelers seemed down bad like i know it was rough i you know they just they seem to get bullied by um you know by the bills who i mean sometimes we miss handicaps james cook handicap feel pretty good about that uh just literally came out and just tried to establish the hell out of it i bet over 17 and a half carries it's 17 at the half they just weren't going to allow uh you know the steelers pass rush to be a problem in that game and we're able to kind of dictate and bully ball them um it just seemed like i don't know maybe it was the chance of the crowd got to everybody because like the pressers after with like you know we don't need much to get a condescending rogers we got a condescending rogers happy to like
Starting point is 00:40:26 passively aggressive throw teammates on the boss he's ready for that But like T.J. Watt seemed like beaten down Tomlin. They were at fire Tomlin chance. The guy's been there for almost 20 years. They never fire coaches, almost at all, ever. But it seemed like an all-time down bad moment coming out of that game for the Steelers. It's a tough bounceback spot in Baltimore. But Baltimore's down bad, too.
Starting point is 00:40:51 Any thoughts on, you know, Ravens laying five and a half at home? You saw the Josina. I was Josina's report about like there's a one. disgruntled coach, you know, long-time coach who is not interested in, you know, playing or it's like, it's like considering getting out, I would assume that that's Tomlin, if that's, there's any truth to that. I wouldn't blame him. I mean, if you've got to deal with Aaron Rogers the whole year, you know, it would, you know, make sense there. I will say the Steelers just in general, they win games that they shouldn't. Like they, they got, I mean, they got their, their breaks being off here last week. But the Ravens also, like you said, don't look. good. Lamar's not agile enough right now, it looks like. And so if the Steelers can get pressure and I don't know, like play a somewhat competent game on offense, I think it could just be like an ugly, ugly game. So I don't know. Maybe I'm too down on the Ravens after what we've seen the last couple of weeks, but the Ravens is five and a half point favorites right now against
Starting point is 00:41:48 the team. It's not like really that bad. I mean, the Steelers aren't good, but they're definitely not bottom tier of the league. I think it might be a little too much. So I think five plus five and a half is where I'd lead, to be honest. Part of me, I can't get out of my mind the fact that if they wanted to do the same thing that Buffalo just did and just gave them the blueprint, they could do it theoretically, but maybe they can't, right? Like, Lamar maybe isn't fully healthy, like isn't running, you know, with this volume or efficiency.
Starting point is 00:42:22 Same thing for Derek Henry. Yeah, it's, it's Ravens or nothing. for me but I'm not super excited to lay five and a half um I just I don't trust what's going on in Pittsburgh it seems it seems bad you're also just continuing to be in the middle you know in terms of being able to like start new they're going to probably have to go into free agency again the quarterback or in Mason Rudolph right like um you know they spent a bunch of money on the defensive side of the ball to you know be really competitive to have that unit lead the team and they are not getting anything out of them.
Starting point is 00:43:00 So that's kind of why you see the divisional odds reflected here, even though both these teams are six and six. So, yeah, I'm not super excited, but I would lean that way as well. How about the other one? Again, the Bengals aren't dead. You see here, 9 to 1 on the screen for them to win the division, they kind of basically have to take care of this game here. Because, again, they have eight losses.
Starting point is 00:43:27 assuming they went out they could be 9 and 8 and win this division with some tie breaks again they you know some head head still to come here they are five and a half six some spots uh dogs in buffalo hefty total 51 and a half uh talk to me about bills bengals i mean the biggest problem is that the bills are running the ball while the bengals run events is not very good so like i don't even know if you need like we've talked about some of the other problems that can happen for Josh Allen considering his receiving like past catching group if like maybe a team can stop the run you force Josh Allen to I don't know play just play a different style or I have to play hero ball and that's not I don't know if that's
Starting point is 00:44:11 going to happen here because like the Bengals run defense can't really stop anyone so I want to like I want to sport the Bengals just overall because I think it's fun but I also don't I don't know it's a tough ask for me to be honest i mean basically just getting like you're basically just getting six points because of burrow like it's not i mean the rest of the team is very bad yeah get t higgins back the rest of the team is very bad um you know the aura points for borough are pretty what are we like what are we getting two two and a half oral points two or a points for sure um at least the quotes are so good you see like the pregame stuff just like hey listen and he looks so you know it's just like yeah
Starting point is 00:44:56 listen we're getting paid a lot of money to play kids you know yeah and uh just want to go out have fun with my guys
Starting point is 00:45:02 give these fans something they're happy to watch and uh let's just get this done you're just like okay but I'm in I'm in what a man
Starting point is 00:45:11 yeah I love it I missed you we missed you for the last like eight weeks nine weeks of our lives it's just a different vibe and
Starting point is 00:45:19 you know something to be said for for that too I don't want to pay for that in the betting market though And I kind of agree that we aren't kind of paying for that. Yeah, there's a little bit of attacks here, I think. Yeah, six and a half is interesting, but we've lost that. You know, five and a half is a little bit of a tougher sell.
Starting point is 00:45:35 Because, again, what stops Buffalo from doing almost exactly what they just did to Pittsburgh? Stop Josh on the ground. Stop James Cook on the ground. You don't want to run the football. That's kind of the path to beat the bills. You know, you really want Josh. or you want, you know, borough, drop back and chuck it around. That's kind of the strength of the, you know, the bill's defense.
Starting point is 00:46:01 So a little bit, a little bit tricky there. I would love the, because I want it to happen. I'm going to stay away because I would love to see, you know, the Bengals matter down the stretch. But I think the bills are the right side of five and a half. Yeah, I mean, maybe, maybe the bills just come out or the Bengals come out firing, you know, score like go up 14 points early, you know, touchdown, stop, touchdown. And then maybe it changes the dynamic a little bit. the bills can't just run the ball the entire game.
Starting point is 00:46:27 Maybe you're lucky to turnovers. Like that's probably their path to winning. Yeah, that's a good call. That's probably the best way. Maybe a good live betting opportunity. All right. Touched on the top. We don't get a lot of these Bears, Packers games that matter.
Starting point is 00:46:39 They have the late window. You know, three games late. Other two Broncos, Raiders, you know, matters. Obviously, the Broncos can't mess around the win. Same thing, Rams, Cardinals. All these games, all those teams have to take care of business. but you know those are more than touchdown favorites for the road teams there this one is kind of standing alone as the bell of the ball in the late window packers are six and a half point favorites
Starting point is 00:47:05 44 to 44 and a half is the total you could see the current divisional odds on the screen as well if you're watching on youtube with the packers the current favorites minus 135 on fandul bears even though they are your current number one seed to win or to be the number one seed in the NFC it's not how the market sees it playing out but any thoughts on six and a half there with the bears packers yeah i mean this is this is crazy how we've how we've gotten here of where the bears i think actually can i don't know like give them a little bit of a run for their money here uh it's we're in a spot where like if the bears can run the ball on the eagle run the ball on anyone like you make anything a game here because you get just kind of some weird
Starting point is 00:47:50 Weird magic of being able to run the ball and then Caleb Williams being able to do some some crazy things. So I think it will also helps too. The Bears got their secondary guys back last week. They got Kyler Gordon back. They got Jalen Johnson back. Are they going to get any linebackers back this week? That would be obviously massive too. Yeah, maybe Edwards or Sewell still going to be without Tremaine admins for a little bit.
Starting point is 00:48:11 But they ran a lot of like just nickel looks. Like you had all three of the safeties on the field quite a bit. they were kind of managed Kyler Gordon's playing time they may manage Jalen Johnson's playing time but they were able to do that and get away with it and now I think you can start to ramp that up but like they're getting a really good actually good play
Starting point is 00:48:32 out of both Montez Sweat and Austin Booker it's really part of why I think they're again Grady Jarrett's playing well Ron Dexter like they're defensive lines playing pretty well too so like getting the secondary debt back helps a ton You know, they're still obviously making a ton of headway off of, you know, turnovers, which we know are unpredictable and highly variant.
Starting point is 00:48:55 But, like, they seem to have a good, it's a good problem to have with, like, Nation right's been awesome and they want to continue to find a way to get them on the fields. Like, they didn't miss, you know, Stevenson last week. They loved to, I think, probably keep him on the pine. So, yeah, yeah, the bears are interesting. I mean, I don't know if I'm excited to, like, bet them at six and a half. if we got a seven, maybe. I would be pretty interested, I think, there.
Starting point is 00:49:21 Six and a half is tough, but at the same time, like, the Green Bay receiving core is a little bit, I mean, I don't know. They're beat up, is the right word at this point. Kind of just like, you know, Golden coming back for whatever he's worth. Watson has been playing better.
Starting point is 00:49:35 Dutavian Wicks played the best game of his career, like last week. And so, but I don't, I genuinely don't think any of them are like good enough to be like, oh, yeah, like this receiver is way better than Jalen Johnson or Kyler Gordon or anything like that. So, and if they get any of their linebackers back, it can slow down the run a little bit more.
Starting point is 00:49:55 I think that would be a huge advantage. I mean, it's like they just helped not, I mean, not shut down, but slow down A.J. Brown and Devata Smith, they could have been, Dallas Goddard didn't do a whole lot. Eagles have the problems, have plenty of problems on their own, but I don't know. Maybe I'm being too optimistic here, but I do think that if the bears can run the ball,
Starting point is 00:50:14 keep the game close, like it'll be, I don't know I mean anything can happen at that point yeah I don't think we see a seven I think it's a pretty quick buyback on the seven but I would love the seven I do think the six and a half is probably pretty interesting and probably the right side
Starting point is 00:50:28 as crazy as that is but Jordan loves playing a really good ball yeah but like yeah I just have I have questions with how they get it done too and the same thing there the defense is getting a ton of pressure I mean Mike is playing awesome
Starting point is 00:50:40 it's going to be a fun game that's going to be a really fun game to watch it might be too many points, 44.5. It might be on the right side and total wise with the 44 being a key number. So that would probably be my lean right now if I had to bet anything currently on the board.
Starting point is 00:51:00 I want to see the injury reports too. Like you said, the Chicago injury report in particular is probably pretty healthy. Yeah. We touched on Texans chiefs. How will the Eagles chargeers? It was our last game of the week, the Monday nighter. The Eagles are three-point.
Starting point is 00:51:15 Point road favorites, 40-5, 41-and-a-half. Kind of touched on earlier with the Justin Herbert stuff as being a little bit of a question in terms of how the chargers move forward, but it seems like a situation where, you know, you missed a few snaps. They put a bandage. I'm sure they'll have a little bit more of an elaborate, you know, protective bandage on his hand for this one, but I wouldn't expect him to miss any time. Thoughts on Eagles Chargers, the Eagles being road favorites.
Starting point is 00:51:42 The problem is, like, in a vacuum, I think I was. probably want to back the Eagles. But just considering, like, all the random games they lost me, they're coming off just like an awful loss of the Bears. No one seems happy there. There, again, the vibes around this team, even though despite being like an NFC favorite and like good is not, it's not good right now at all. People are, I mean, I don't know if you, if you watch the game with volume on,
Starting point is 00:52:05 the fans were legit booing every way. Like that, like first four, three and out. It was like right away. Like right away. It was like, damn, that's tough. Yeah, like they were. And, I mean, the Bears only, the Bears only won by whatever, like a touchdown or like, you know, a couple points. They dominated that game.
Starting point is 00:52:22 I mean, they thoroughly, they should have been up by 20 at half. They, you know, just like are not that good. But like it was just like an embarrassing game, honestly from the Eagles. So yes, the Chargers, Justin Herbert has hurt. Yes, like their offensive line is problems. And like on field matchups, I think the Eagles are the better team and probably the right side. I just can't shake this weird vibe of like. they are not playing well and I don't know if they think that they're good either at this point
Starting point is 00:52:50 so it's kind of it's kind of weird it's a tough one for me yeah um that pass rush for philadelphia right see being a real problem for the chargers uh they have to be really intentional like the bears were uh to get the ball out really quickly um yeah i feel like the chargers could also be in a little bit of a spoon here too so uh another honor yeah i mean 40 41 40 and a half is so it's really low it's really low um yeah i don't i don't love that i'm not taking the over though either so i think it's probably telling that that's probably the right side uh yeah again i don't know what uh i don't think we're seeing any impactful injury news there per se but um yeah two and a half on philly i'd be
Starting point is 00:53:41 interested three i'm probably staying away props would be possibly be the angle some sacks we can get some you know jalen phillips sack or if we get you know decent price or something like that i could i could see that happen but yeah i mean back to back i mean that they folded against the cowboys and then you know get the doors blown off by the bears it is it is tough tough sledding here for the eagles so i just i don't want it back i mean they're not running the ball as well as they were like their defense i think is still good as you mentioned like all the pieces there but you know the offense is just a disaster right now with Kevin Petullo, and that's, like, really bad when you have, and you're missing Lane Johnson,
Starting point is 00:54:19 and so like, but when you have AJ Brown, Devonsa Smith, Goddard, Sequin, and Jalen Hertz is obviously proven over time that he's a competent quarterback more often than not. Like, you can't be having this level of output here. Yeah, completely agree. All right. Super Bowl odds on the screen currently. Basically, the bookmakers, I mean, just bleeding us to death with hold, but also just putting their hands up and being like, hey, we don't know, we don't know what to do, really with any of this.
Starting point is 00:54:49 This is really fascinating that you see your top four teams are in the NFC. Still Rams a little bit above the rest of the market, where, you know, plus 490 on Sears is the best price for them to win the Super Bowl, then Seahawks, Eagles, Packers, before you get to your first AFC team, which is Buffalo, again, depending on your book, Broncos, Hats, Colts, also kind of right there. And I think we have a little bit of it, you know, yeah. You know, you also get the Chiefs and Ravens. So pretty fascinating that your next, what, six teams are from the ASC.
Starting point is 00:55:23 And we might have some of these not even in the playoffs, which is kind of crazy. Same thing. Lyons kind of there in the mix. Anything that jumps out to you here. Niners hilarious though, like they're, like, basically for sure in the playoffs. Yeah. And they're below teams that are not like a 30%, 50% chance for the Chiefs to make the playoffs. right now. I think it's like the actual odds, which is just incredible.
Starting point is 00:55:47 But I think we touched on a little bit of the match. I think that like the Texans at 30 to 1 are not a bad look. I think that the and then the, who else was it? I mean, the bills at 10 to 1 are not terrible. I really struggle with them, but like they're, I mean, I guess the best AFC team right now. I don't know. It's like one of those. I don't like any of these teams.
Starting point is 00:56:14 This is the problem. I don't like any of these ASA teams. I know there's value on one of them. There's like one of them is going to catch fire in the next couple weeks, probably. And whoever that is, is like, I think we need to, we need to stay ahead of that. So, like, I don't know. You start seeing someone play well in the next week or so and maybe we get on board there because that could be the ticket here because I'm not a believer in any of the top
Starting point is 00:56:34 of the board of the AFC, to be honest. Yeah. And there's a lot of projection in this, but this is fascinating to look at, too, is because your playoff matchups in this format would be. be Broncos Texans, which again, there's like, in a lot of ways mirror images of each other team-wise, Colts Jags, which we get this week. And again, you're coming up. And then you would have Ravens Bills as a first round playoff match. Which would be absolutely fascinating theater. We thought that could be, you know, potentially AFC championship game. And that's,
Starting point is 00:57:02 you know, the first rounds. You know, with in this scenario, New England's sitting at home waiting to see who they get to face that path for for the bills it gets really it's just becomes it's just hard it's really tricky if those are all road games so yeah just not not a not a believer again they probably have the best player josh allen the guy that i think single-handedly at this point can impact games the most by himself i guess the ball in his hand all the time and, you know, is the most dynamic. Yeah, so they are, they are frightening. Denver, sometimes they look really good.
Starting point is 00:57:45 You know, like, I guess this team is, this is a real team. Coach has been there. I just, there's upside. There's really good play from, from Bonnix. Defense is awesome. And then sometimes you're just like, what the hell? It seems like they struggle to move the ball at all in the same game. RJ Harvey, by the way, might have the worst vision in the league.
Starting point is 00:58:04 I've never seen someone like, have two options so often besides like it's like Trent Richardson like just like runs into the back of his guys it's like you know option one hole option two bounce it outside and maybe get a yard or option three right into the back of the guy he's picking outside or right into the back of his guy basically every time uh and half time when he runs outside he gets you know tackled for a loss or gain or like a you know back the line of scrimmage so it's just a it's honestly painful to watch him I can't say that I'm a big fan so far to be honest Oh, I mean, J.K. Dobbins back.
Starting point is 00:58:36 But, yeah, the range of outcomes there would be pretty vast. So, yeah, the Texans are interesting. I just don't believe it. But again, the defense is so good. I'd rather go AFC, not scenario with 13 to 1 to win the AFC. Because I just, I think I would like almost anyone. If you're just talking about, like, the top of the NFC, who would I like above, you know, the Texans more,
Starting point is 00:59:03 I'm taking the Rams Seahawks Packers probably over them. For sure. So I think there's maybe some value that probably be an interesting way to go about it. Almost 5 to 1 in New England, which I think is also interesting. So in 9-1 on the Chiefs, here we are. Again, like 5-50, maybe like 4 to 1 to win the Super Bowl not so long ago. And here we are at 9-1 with a very, very difficult path to even make the playoffs. But like, yeah, no one wants to see them in.
Starting point is 00:59:33 and like record keeping wise there was no time at any point that a healthy tom brady with some bad patriots supporting casts ever played an entire season and was six and six or was on the outside of making the playoffs so you can table your goat conversations for another day patty they also whooped you twice head to head in new england and in Tampa bay so you're playing for second place at this point those those were some crazy crazy games those were awesome yeah those are great i mean that that patriots win in kansas city in a tv championship game was an all-timer um all right let's see uh nfc championship uh before we wrap any uh anything jump out here from an nfc standpoint and if you had any awards you want to talk
Starting point is 01:00:22 about i mean the the nfc is like i mean probably the probably would be the packers for me I mean, the Rams are the best team right now, but, like, value-wise is probably the Packers. We were high on them before. They've kind of just played with their food sometimes, I think a couple games, but they're still a good team capable of beating basically anyone. Yeah, I kind of think those top three teams are the kind of best teams.
Starting point is 01:00:51 I don't want the Eagles. I really like the Seahawks. Again, like the most important position is quarterback. That's the problem there is do I want to, do I trust Sam Donald against, really good teams in a big spot. No. I don't.
Starting point is 01:01:07 But the rest of it is so good. And again, Max Brosner, Vikings aside, I'm just super impressed by the Rams game, even though they lost that game. The fact that they had a field goal opportunity to win that game,
Starting point is 01:01:19 despite four picks that gave the Rams short field. Rams couldn't do anything. Seattle's defense is really good. Yeah, that's tricky. anything awards-wise that jumps out to you before you wrap um let's see here if we go to yeah mvp i think if you think the pats win big tonight may is going to be favored tomorrow so i agree like if you think the pats win by or even if drake may throws for like i don't know 250 and two touchdowns
Starting point is 01:01:49 or three touchdowns something like that um he's favored if he like blows up then he's probably favored even more um so yeah at this point it still seems like it's between probably may and stafford i I don't really see anyone else entering the picture at this point. So you could probably almost just buy May today, assuming he plays well, buy staff for tomorrow and Hedge. It's not generally all I play it, but I don't think it's a bad, bad choice. Yeah, the path to the guys behind them is just pretty thin, right?
Starting point is 01:02:16 Like, Dak's been awesome. Yeah. But they, you know, again, are barely have a 20% chance to make the playoffs. Jordan Love, same thing has been good. Just been not good enough. It's a hard sell for me on Jordan Love. with the Rams being the number one seeing the NFC ahead of Stafford, right?
Starting point is 01:02:35 So, like, he loses the conference tiebreaker in that discussion. So that's a little bit tricky. So, yeah, I think if you're kind of just playing the game, you can get plus money on Drag May today. And if you don't already have some plus money on Stafford, you could probably get that. Again, next week, because the Patriots are on a buy, right?
Starting point is 01:02:52 So if Stafford gets to go to Arizona carves up the Cardinals while Drake May doesn't even play, boom, you're out there. are shifting just kind of naturally with the flow. Also, too, we got Dak Prescott to lead the league in passing at 12 to 1 preseason. That's down to, he's the favorite right now and he's leading the league. He's like plus 120, something like that. Mahomes are plus 155.
Starting point is 01:03:17 He's only down like 25 yards. I don't think that that's a bad edge. Also, May is at 3,130 and he is like, let's see here, 5 to 1. but I think it's probably between Dak and Holmes to be honest at this point. Yeah, it's a nice position to be in. Good job by you.
Starting point is 01:03:37 12 to 1 on deck. He's been awesome. He's been great. I mean, George Piggins is a dog, you know? It's like it's exactly what we said was going to happen, happen. They made their devens better, actually, but that was kind of part of the handicap
Starting point is 01:03:52 was their defense going to be so bad. But, I mean, I guess I was for a little bit. Their devens a little bit better. Yeah, I think, Stevens is markedably better. Not good, but I think better. They're still, they're using five, like a five-man liebacker rotation. Like, just pick two guys.
Starting point is 01:04:10 Just play overshone and whoever else you think is the next best guy. Yeah. Anyway, we'll see. All right. Appreciate everyone hanging out with us. Again, don't forget to take advantage of the current discounts over at 4-4-4. So go to 4.4.com slash plans. 50% off any subscription, including picks, including Sharpstack, no promo code.
Starting point is 01:04:32 That ends on Monday, though, here on Cyber Monday. So take advantage. Come back on Friday for Prop John. Should have everyone back in house. Connor and Slop will be back. We'll have some banners and some winners. Yeah. Connor, enjoy your hike.
Starting point is 01:04:50 Enjoy California. I'll take care of the cold here for us. Hopefully all the snow's gone by the time you get back. All right, for Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody. Bye.

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