Move The Line - Move The Line - Week 14 Betting Recap & Week 15 Early Predictions!

Episode Date: December 8, 2025

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Hello and welcome to Move Live, presented by Sharpstack, Brian Noonan. Join here, as always by my friend Connor Allen. Week 14, mostly in the books, my friend. Final stretch here for regular season weeks to go. How we do? Good, yeah, it was tilting early, got saved late on some props, and then had some nice alts on quorum, some decent Luther burden stuff that came through.

for anyone watching the Friday show. I think we were talking about that, a good bit. So, yeah, I ended up with some good wins. It was like, I would say, solid week overall. And, you know, the ultimate up for most of it. But how about you? Better week for myself than it was for me for the subscribers. So I'm going to get back to the subscribers this week.

I was just two and four on official plays, which isn't good. But, you know, some of the stuff that we didn't play, they were able to get down on helped personally, right? The early Michael Wilson stuff that we jumped on just before, you know, the Marvin Harrison news and, you know, the early, uh, burden stuff like you said, you know, individual tackle stuff was good. But yeah, we'll get back on the on it this week. I'm excited. We're done with buys. We are, like I said, we have four weeks to go in the regular season.

Everything matters. We had some really impactful games on the docket there in week 14 and week 15. and Week 15 has some bangers as well. And we're also going to get into some of like the just absolutely nothing to play for type games. But, you know, some of these teams had those in September for being honest. So it doesn't really change here in Week 15. So excited to pack through. We'll kind of walk through some of the big takeaways here.

We'll look at the Playoff Sim. Again, shout out to the New York Times. Playoff Sim, it's a really cool tool. We walk through some of that stuff. Look at some of the schedule stuff that's coming up over the next four weeks and look at some of the future stuff here as well. So I want to remind folks to take advantage of the Sharpstack trial, free seven-day trial. If you head over the site right now, 444.com slash plans, email address.

You don't need a paid account, get that free trial. Use promo code holidays if you want to extend beyond that. Hit us up if you have any questions. Great resource. And again, that's a full 12 months. So you want to start banging college hoops, all the bowl games, college football playoffs, you know, and then obviously all the stuff through the NFL. And then, you know, soon we'll have baseball and WMB,

and uh no days off for sharp stack so check that out free seven day trial right now let us know if you have any questions we'll be back on friday with slot for prop drop 3 pm eastern uh let's jump into it week 14 biggest takeaway connor uh loaded slates a lot of big games what's gonna stick out 48 hours from now for you gosh i mean there's a there's a lot but um high level here i think the coltard just toast i think it's over but it's you know what's interesting going to be over. But if you're a Colts fan, now you have the optimism to roll in the next season and tell yourself that it only fell apart because of the injuries. It might not be the case necessarily. You maybe propped yourself up a little bit on an easy schedule. And now you get

to sell yourself that bill of goods moving into the off season because the slate of schedule coming up here for the Colts is going to be tough either way. Yeah. I mean, the problem with that, though, is that's like 10 months away. You know, it's like they have 10 months to stew on this. you know, they're still kind of like, man, what if? And I think that feeling is probably going to linger for Colts fans for a while because, I mean, the key ones here, Daniel Jones, obviously torn Achilles, likely some kind of compensation injury for his fractured fibula that he's playing through, almost certainly.

And then, you know, obviously Soss Gardner matters too. So, like, you know, that his injury was big too. So when you have both of that combined and then you're starting Riley Leonard, Anthony Richardson is dealing with a globe injury, I think, or like some kind of face injury. Brovis right. Yeah. So I don't think he's going to play this year.

It's what it seems like. I doubt he's going to play. So you're stuck with Riley Leonard. It gets a tough schedule. I think it's probably over. And I think the Texans or Jags or maybe both make a run here. Yeah.

I feel like I'm mad that we speculated on that. I didn't take any action on that. Me neither. We talked about the last week. Yeah. I feel we talked about like two weeks ago even too. When we were coming off of like the bills Buffalo game

which is or the Texans Buffalo game which I thought was an interesting situation there and yeah now I mean look at the Colts have a situation that really the problem is is that he highlighted they lost sauce but like Seattle next week again with because

of no Anthony Richardson again we can have discussions I don't know how much the spread is impacted well as Anthony Richardson but Seattle San Fran Jacksonville Houston to finish for the Colts I mean, there's a real scenario who were there finished eight and nine. And they don't own that first round pick anymore.

That pick is now the Jets' first round pick for the sauce trade. So, you know, you don't even really get the benefit of this kind of late season slide, which seems fairly inevitable with, you know, so much to play for for all of those teams. And obviously going to be massive dogs with Riley Leonard, who was fairly allergic to the forward pass at Notre Dame. really seemed reluctant to run yesterday which was weird i thought like he came in and i was looking live i'm like are we going to get riley went on live rushing lines he ran two times for five yards and weird all things considered like you know i knew instantly that our you know we both be a joint play of tyler warren like that's we were so dead right away he's completely dead

yeah and uh didn't even give us like a hope which was actually pretty nice of him because that, you know, didn't even have to sweat that coming in, wasn't even really targeting him at all. But definitely threw the ball more than I was expecting. Tough task to now go on the road to Seattle to kind of bounce back. But yeah, they're, they're fairly dead. That's a tough one. Are the chiefs dead?

Are the chiefs all the way dead? What does the playoff? What is the playoff sims say? It's got to be close, right? Like, I mean. So I think they're, this is the current standings. I'm going to pop it up here on the screen. um yeah they are i mean they're they're mostly done so so right now six and seven uh projected

nine and eight we get into the chief specific i think they allow us to drill down here um i believe i played around this a little bit today one percent yeah they win out um so say they win out now now they're 51 52 percent winning out okay we're moving we're on the move we're siming as we go we're sim okay there's four thousand sims you know slop likes to do the mental sims we did the actual sims yeah so if you include a chargers win tonight we're dropping down into like the 40 range right so and that's again with them winning out so all the different things that you would need along the way you know they just don't have the only tiebreaker they had in those teams that

up was the Colts and the Colts are now fully removed from you know the playoff pitcher here so I mean they're not but again they but they are for all intents purposes so uh that's the tricky part because they don't have the you know they lost that Jags game um they now have lost Texans game you know so if those teams have are fighting for wild card instead they lost the bills right so they they have kind of a tough draw uh here so it doesn't say that they're but it feels like they're they're very very dead they need to win out and they need a ton of help yeah i mean i'm not it's not something i'm betting on anymore you know it's like something i think we we're interested in taking speculative sabs on now not quite as interested

i wonder what they say about the ravens because they feel like they're in a similar boat right now as well i mean sitting at six and seven nfl dot com has them in the current 32 percent probability to make the playoffs um so i guess a little bit rosier outlook but i think new york times looks like it disagrees there. Yeah, I mean, there's a path of the Ravens to lose out. Just, I mean, crazy. I mean, right now, 27% chance. Let's have them win up. But look, I mean, the schedule's a little tougher. They just lost to Cincinnati. And they got to go there and do that again. They host New England, which again, like, if we're talking about like our perception of the Ravens versus what we've seen from the Ravens, this is where it starts to get, you know, a little bit

difficult then you got to go to green bay and then you just got to go again to pittsburgh who um again you just lost you so um i don't think anyone's going to sell me on them being better than the patriots right now or better than green bay and then they've lost to the other two teams that they've played so let's say that they win out in the same scenario that we did with the chiefs well it gets a little bit easier obviously because they're winning in the division here if they went out they're in looks like yeah wow okay so just kind of win out i guess but that's i mean the bangles are no pushover they should have probably beaten the bills they kind of kicked them i mean they would get some weird interceptions there um like but yeah i mean

the the bangles are a good team like the bangles are a good team right now with how they're playing um at least offensively so so here if we you know we give them uh they have to win out and then it becomes a coin flip um in the steelers game basically right they they win in their in but you know they stumble at any point here and they're they're done it's over it's over so just which is tough uh because again like some of these teams in the afc like it's Pittsburgh a good team like it's a tough watch it's a tough hang like yeah it's not great they finally pushed the ball down the field it felt like their scripted plays involved taking some shots deep against Baltimore and they hit I think their first 20 yard completion since like

October I saw like 20 air yard completion yeah you know so just been such a wild um wild offense there like Rogers just does not want to take a hit there I saw too like I watched the game with Steelers fans he's pretty frustrated watching this team and we're looking at it too like yeah the you have the lowest average that the target in the league and they are last in yards versus the sticks so like there's just so many opportunities where it's like third and eight well it's a four yard attempt and you just better hold you break a tackle and get there because we're not taking we're not actually pushing the ball down the field again so but again they look to be you know what a nice

comfortable spot the bangles would have been very very interesting if they would have won yesterday yep but because their schedule is fairly soft but they obviously do not win so yeah the ravens need to win out and then they went out they are in but a tough tough considering what happens there. Yeah, so you could see you went out and it comes down to the coin flip of week 18. That's wild. And I mean, the Steelers right now, it's funny.

So if you look at the future's odds right now, it's like odds to win the AFC. The Ravens and the Chiefs both have better odds than the Steelers. And the Steelers are like pretty likely to make the playoffs at this point. More likely than not, it seems like. And then, you know, the, but to win the AFC, like they're at like i don't know it depends where you look 25 to 1 drafts is what it's looking at

um there it's funny um which is just hilarious just considering because like books are like not even giving them a chance even if they do make the playoffs and they're way more likely make the playoffs and then the other two teams uh but i guess kind of like going with this conversation like we have all these different options in the afc and like books don't really even know what to do with it plus 300 to plus 500 for the top five options there or four options basically so yeah um and i don't love any of them except for i mean i don't love any of them honestly like maybe maybe the patriots but they're all just fine they all definitely have question marks that's for sure right um denver and houston both have you know great defenses but question around their offense

patriots not exactly battle tested and the bill's uh receiving group is i mean who knows and their defenses their own problems so yeah yeah i mean the bills kind of deserve to be sitting where they are on this board they have the best player um or he might not be the MVP he might be the mp i don't know we'll get that discussion but he's the best player and he could do what he did yesterday essentially put his team on his back and do kind of something that only he seems to be the guy to do right now uh seems like he's even separated a little bit right felt like it was very much a raven's bills chiefs Mahomes, Lamar, Allen kind of situation. Burrow, kind of there too, right? We just have had Burrow being, you know, injured at times the last handful of years.

But, you know, pretty much those four and those teams have always been in the mix, though we've had kind of the Bengals defense situation kind of hovering there too. But now it feels like Josh has kind of just been more consistent and has been able to, I think, rise above the situation more than some of the other guys have been able to do with their team. So, yeah, Patriots clearly unproven, a bunch of key injuries, both sides of the ball. guys that they're going to get back though so that's encouraging. We're just going to get through this, you know, in the

Buffalo in Ravens next two and then, you know, dolphins and jets. Dolphins though, same record as the Chiefs right now, which is, you know, like, is that crazy? I felt like I had a legit sweat for a little bit on dolphins' worst record

earlier in the season. And they're cooking now. I mean, the jets are still in consideration, you know, if the Jets, the Titans win a game, here. I think they're tied, right? Titans are at two and eleven? Crazy. Yeah, we have that too. The you know, the draft

you know, tank a thought of a second. Oh, Raiders. Wow, look at this. Raiders, the new favorites. Okay. Yeah. I kind of forgot about the Raiders, to be honest. Eight teams. Three and ten are worse. It's rough.

It's rough. Now remember, the Falcons don't own this pick. this is the Rams pick and then this Colts pick right here is the Jets so Jets are positioned to have a couple of solid picks again considering there's a real chance that the Colts possibly finish eight nine and that's you know they're kind of hovering in this this range so you could have two top 12-ish picks for the Jets which is you know good way to continue to rebuild as they've been rebuilding for quite a long time but you know continuing to do So same thing in the Browns.

The Browns will have a couple decent picks too, right? Mendoza feels like a guy that Brady would push forward to. Sure. He seemed to have that moment the other night, right? We can always talk about the quarterbacks in the draft and then just like they always just rise through the process. One will, right? Eventually. Yeah, I think it'll be Mendoza.

Mendoza is already basically kind of there anyway. So it's like, but yeah, it's an interesting next couple weeks, I think for the bottom of the board mostly for draft purposes and like a lot of those teams need quarterbacks a lot of them just like very uncertain futures or mortgage their future accidentally you know like Falcons yeah I mean Pennix is probably I mean they think by default just have to give them another run like they don't have any other options right got to give them another run yeah and again they don't own their first round pick so yeah you just don't have any other options but yeah like I

I guess that's another conversation. Then the Vikings, we talked about them before, like with J.J. McCarthy, if he had another couple of bad games, like you're probably bringing in some veteran help. And they, Ian Rapport actually suggested that before the game and said that they're likely to bring in some veteran, I think they're a piece of guidance or, you know, but basically competition. So that would not be surprising at all. Now, he did play very well.

16 of 23 for 16 to 363 yards and three touchdowns. Definitely looked better than he has in the past. but it came against the commanders. Yeah, commanders are full cell mode. It looked like pretty rough. You know what? I almost bet some Jaden Daniels under is under the premise of like he's probably not going to run that much because like he doesn't want to put his body on the line. If he does get dinged up at all, maybe he get maybe just like they just don't use him.

And that is exactly what happened. I'm like, you're kicking myself. I'm like, why didn't I? The theory was right there. But the problem is it was just like very speculative. Like he also got to just came out and just been like, oh, I'm going to just run for. for 100 yards because it's fun, you know. Yeah, it wasn't like a lower leg injury or a leg injury or anything.

So, yeah, that's, like, that's been, you know, something he's going to have to answer for sure this time last year, without a doubt, they feel like they had the answer long-term at quarterback. And I probably still do, at least in the short term. But this was his problem, you know, at college. And it was kind of the knock on him coming out, part of why I didn't want him. Like I was eating crow a little bit last year. Because I remember the draft, the late last year position.

I'm just like, hey, I want a chance of Caleb or Drake May. Like, I really, I want those guys who don't want Jane Daniels, mostly just because I was worried about him, staying healthy and a little bit of older prospect. And yeah, it seems like it's weird because you have a young quarterback and but you just have the oldest team in the league around him. So they had to have a busy off season. We'll see what happens there. But, yeah, I don't know what to make of.

of the Ravens. Our other Super Bowl pick was the Packers. Interesting Packers Bears game, 28, 21. Bears showed a little fight because, again, felt like, I mean, that first half was... Oh, man, dominated. Yeah, just all Packers. All Packers.

It should have been, you know, the score didn't even really indicate 14 to 3 how much of a blowout that was and felt like, but they came back and they, you know, again, you had the full Caleb Williams experience. You had some just... wow athleticism plays and you had some brain dead what was that type of situations and you know green bay again felt like a a standard green bay win too big deep vertical shots down

the field really strong defensive performance opportunistic and yeah they look legit but any thoughts on bears packers specifically yeah i think dennis allen's defense can only go so far like he plays like he got like overly aggressive sometimes and then if they didn't the blitz didn't get home like there were just guys wide open because like the bears secondary had no chance of keeping with these guys like when you have like nashon right on christian watson and like you know or safety on it like it's just they're not athletically capable of keeping up with them now they probably wouldn't be anyway so that's why he's rolling the dice with this stuff is like if it does get home at least they have a chance uh defensively and that's so it's he's i mean he's run it all year

it's like this high risk, high reward type of defense that has worked out for them so far against worst teams, but against more talented teams like the Packers, it's a little bit tough, you know what I mean? And so, but I think he's doing a lot with what he has right now. Again, Kyler Gordon injured pregame, didn't even play. Right. I mean, Jaylon Johnson went down. This fucking guy.

I mean, get these guys out of here. Like, honestly, at this point, just forget it. Like, if you can't ever be healthy, like, what's the point of having them? You know, it's crazy. So, but I thought Caleb played really big. bad in the first half second half second half adjustments for ben johnson by the way i've just been incredible like rushing game has been better they're like number one in epa in the second half of games and running um and passing they jump up a bunch too and like you saw like Caleb came out

completed like six or seven passes touchdown drive right off the bat had another really good drive in the second half um i think it's honestly just ben jonson kind of learning like oh okay we can run these couple plays these will work and then maybe we can mix in some other stuff it's tough and and but i think overall though it's like encouraging things like who would have thought the bears would even be nine and four competing with the packers in lamo in 10 degrees like could should have it was a very easily game by the end so like you can't ask for all that much more they're not like an amazing team but they're they're competitive and i think that's all you can ask for agreed i mean that's going to be a tough sell for the bears fans that are you know saw themselves

at you know the number one seed heading into the weekend and you know saw some bears fans out in the wild and they're like hey you know 1985 we're going to run it back like you guys are going to be in the one scene for very long but uh you know the optimism is is not been rampant in chicago for the last you know decade plus so i think again anything that comes out of this season for the bears it was a positive beyond getting the answer is like did we get a guy a quarterback did we get a guy a head coach and i feel like you have enough to know that you have those guys them. That doesn't mean that Caleb is not without his flaws, but at the same time, like,

the combination of these two things together, another offseason together, Ben Johnson being able to not have to worry about implementing a system and like running a building for the first time, you can go out and just, okay, everything's familiar. I'm doing this all for the second time. You know, they're going to be an interesting team next year if they have a good offseason. So, yeah, and like, yeah, I think number, like, they, they need a new left tackle. I mean, Michael Parsons was just eating the Bears' offense of one and lunch, like, basically all game. The problem was Packers were rushing four, plenty and just getting home, like, right away.

So it's like, anytime that happened, Bears just had no chance. And, yeah, it's, I mean, Packers are a good team. It's like exactly what we knew. And there's a big step up in competition for the Bears. That's why when the Packers are doing their thing, they're going to be so tough to beat because they can win with four. And they're just, they don't blitz a lot. You know, that just makes it, you don't get to have those opportunities where you can, pick on them because they blitzed and didn't get home.

They just beat you with the guys that they have up front. That's tough. So bears drop from 1 to 7 because, again, that's kind of what the NFC is right now, which is kind of fascinating. Now, the lions are right behind them in 8 and 5. Tough schedule for the lions. Again, they are on the road in L.A. against the Rams this week, whereas the Bears host of Browns a little bit easier.

And again, you know, bears got some tougher opponents on the other. side of that here let's bring this up here um yeah you see here for the lions uh at the rams they host the steelers they go to minnesota and then that week 18 game in chicago i think is going new probably going to matter right depending on how this plays out whereas the bears um they get on the other side of this here again this is tough right uh Cleveland green bay San Francisco Detroit really really really tough not unheard of or uh over the range of outcomes that the Bears are dropped from the one seed to out of the playoffs here in a couple weeks.

Maybe I'm crazy, but have you looked at the spread for this Bears Browns game? Is it seven, seven and a half? Yeah, seven and a half, eight. Yeah, that is way too many points in my mind. I mean, this is like, Shudur, like you said, showed a pulse. You know, I think we were talking before,

show to show to Pulse, like the Cleveland defense is really good. I mean, like could easily, very easily give Caleb trouble, like lots of trouble. And their run defense, well, I mean, they just got destroyed by Tony Pollard. So maybe none of this matters and, you know, the bear really, run the ball. But like, the rest of the season, they played really, really well. And so, like, they're very realistic outcomes here where the bears are straight-up lose as eight-point favorites. Yeah.

And then have, again, like we said, like some tough games on the back end there. So against playoff teams. So it's a tough, it's a tough spot. Yeah, seven and a half. does feel like too many i saw sevens earlier today and now i see we're seeing some bears action which is just fascinating um they let shudor cook uh i you know someone who played the junkins rushing attempts over which you know we'd samson dinged up like we haven't had any jerome four carries for a while like all right it just seems like it's kind of weather was a little

bit wonky, you know, they've been 10% pass rate below expectation since Shredor took over. It just felt like we're going to run the football. I'm like, no, we're actually going to run it 14 times. We're going to drop Shador back 46 times. And he was pressured on like 63% of his dropbacks and still cooked at the end. I mean, all the way to the end until until the end, until he wasn't on the field for the two-point conversion. But again, the full, I mean, what a great outcome if you're a Browns fan. Again, I know some people hate the tank culture, but let's just be honest, like you were competitive. You weren't tanking that game. You were trying to see if you got a quarterback. The team was playing a win. Players aren't tanking. I don't believe that Kevin

Stefansky is tanking in week 14. So it's not even tanking culture, but you got a loss. It came out of it with, and you didn't just get a loss. You lost to the team that was comfortably number one in the draft order. So like he brought a bullback together. It was a good loss for the rounds oh great loss for the browns i mean that's like maybe maybe they sold on the two point conversion we got a call from i mean you take a quarterback off the field seems like it it was a disastrous play it obviously looked way worse than like i think it probably thought but who knows i mean those like i don't really believe in any of like the tanking stuff overall i don't think most teams do it but like that's an this is an instance where i think like you had an opportunity or last play

the game to make a call and be like hey call some bullshit like this is we need to bet this is a bit massive, massive moment for us in the draft. The problem is that seems like from, you know, Brown's fans, people kind of circling that team that feels like Stefansky stuff has maybe run its course, which is kind of wild, the guy who hasn't been coaching there that long. And there's one coach of the year twice is maybe not long for the position. So we'll see. That's the tricky part too.

Some decent coaching candidates this year, honestly. Like, if you're looking for a new coach. Stafansky gets cleaned up real quick I don't think he's a free agent If he wants a job I think he gets a job pretty quick If he's like, oh Dable?

Yeah I don't know I mean Like do you think What do you think the dolphins do? I think they hold on to him I think they want to Mikey D yeah I mean look

I think he's gone still I'll go all back then he's gone yeah Okay I think you can't come back with McDaniel and Tua and I think they bring in a legit competitor and really hope that the competitor wins, right? Like, this is where we need Mayo's Jamis situation.

Jamis is just like the league's automatic quarterback. Yeah. They just stay a rover. Like the Colts can just scoop them up, you know, and like give up, you know, a fourth round pick and they get Jamis for the rest of the season. And like, they just forfeit the pick. You know, they don't trade it.

Well, I guess they'd have technically a team owns his rights. And we were past the trade that line. But just, you know, the thought was just like, let's just make Jamesus available for anyone who needs a quarterback. The Colts would be fun if we had Jameses inserted in the cults. To be like, James and Alec Pierce, like, Tyler Warren. Like, that'd be a fun football team to watch down the stretch. But no.

It would be great. Instead, we get Riley Leonard. And then the Jets are going to be trod and out Brady Cook probably or, I mean, I would bet Justin Fields would probably be healthy actually by then. but and we don't even know tyrod's status but just in field injuries seem more of like uh ego injury than an actual one but i could be wrong there but like fields tyrod jacobob rossette and james winston are just kind of like the i feel like they're like i'm probably missing someone those are just like mercenaries for you know yeah i mean flaco maybe yeah he's got

a little bit older yeah it's getting yeah but there's just some of those guys that you maybe a drew lock you know he's just someone that's just kind of lingering is he good enough to can he knock off our starter um maybe spencer rattler throws his hat in that ring young younger guy but you know wasn't awful this year so we'll have to wait and see but i could see miami doing something like that in keeping um again you just can't run back i don't think that quarterback coach combination again and try to sell us on that because what's worked for miami to be six and seven is like i don't think two is top like 160 passing yards in like a month and a half no it's just running the ball right he just run the ball a ton yeah i i mean i guess they so they've won four in a row right like

this is the problem they've won four in a row and so like i thought he was for sure for sure gone and now you still you have at stealers which is i mean pretty winnable and then bangles bucks pats so some tough games there i think they probably lose three out of four um but if they win two then they're like eight and nine right i think that's what they'd be eight and nine so like i i still think at that point he gets fired to be honest actually i still think i like i thought that we saw like a couple weeks ago they're like they're not going to fire him in season like i also think in season firings are just kind of dumb like what are you true you're not like building anything going forward not doing anything it's more of just like a statement like honestly like it doesn't really give you

that much of head start over like coaching stuff you're not really talking to anyone at this point anyways and if you are you're probably just calling them behind the backs and just like having some low key meetings that you're again doing probably anyways so like yeah yeah like i don't know i i kind of i'll still go with these gone but we'll see unless you're doing something where i don't even know the giants are doing this per se but like you're you want to give an in-house candidate a look yeah consideration but that's kind of the only situation right like he otherwise if you're like what the titans are doing is like what do you do it's so stupid

I don't understand who's running the ship there but it is a tough slate I just think it's impressive in a way that he didn't seem to lose the locker room necessarily and the guy still went out

like they went some games when it felt like this ship was just you know all the way over I felt like he's running around and this head cut off it seemed like the post game quotes were bad

and it seems they've again just kind of held off a little bit and have been at least a little competitor but you know Pittsburgh Cincinnati Tampa Bay hats is kind of a tough stretch to finish so yeah not not great so um Saints win in Tampa Bay another weather situation where that game took on a lot more rain than I was expecting again another situation where I thought the game script was pretty clean. But no, instead, we just need to see Power Shuck run a bunch and get a couple of rushing touchdowns.

And bucks are not a serious team. And they are now tied with another very not serious team at 7 and 6 to win the NFC South. Current standings. Let's see, projected is going 9 and 8 to both.

Not pretty. Let's see what the odds tell us in the NFC South. Do you have anything to add on the Saints going into Tampa Bay and winning. I mean, and Becca Ibuka played an awful game, just straight up like terrible game, multiple drops,

dropped the potentially game winning touchdown. Baker didn't look right. They couldn't run the ball that well. Bucky wasn't, you know, super efficient. Rashad White was actually technically more efficient. On the other side,

the Saints ran the ball very, like, I mean, ran the ball a lot. Devin Neal, you know, played reasonably well, I thought. And then Tyler Shuck just like didn't have to throw the ball and yeah kind of just like they I don't know like lucked into a win if that's the right word but they kind of played like ugly football and the bucks just played worse yeah what's fascinating

is we have two matchups still to go these teams have not played yet so they're going to play for the first time in week 16 and play again in week 18 the tough part is is I think why we look at the futures odds and then we have you know the playoff simulator here leading bucks is that that you know the other game that kind of gets in the middle there is week 17 Carolina has to play Seattle oh whereas in Seattle's going to need that game there's no scenario basically where Seattle's not going to need to win that game whereas the other game there for the bucks um they get my they're going to go to Miami which again they could very easily lose to Miami who's again competitive uh and playing decent ball so um

Tampa against Atlanta on Thursday night. They are four and a half point favorites, five and a half on Fandual, Carolina on the road in New Orleans, who they just, you know, just knocked off Tampa Bay. So that game is, what, a two and a half point spread? Yeah, Panthers two and a half off on the road there.

So any thoughts on the NFC South? We're just arguing about which team loses a first round playoff game to. I genuinely have no take on. neither team they just don't interest me at all right they're they're very much fine there's nothing redeeming about them to make a run at this point yeah i just i just can't get there the winner basically hosts whoever doesn't win the nfc west so we either have vietal at tampa bay or we have the rams at tampa bay or carolina in the playoffs it seems i mean they're going to be what like i don't know six point favorites and like that no matter what on the road

a lot it's a lot that's kind of what we're doing is we're fighting over who gets to lose to the Rams or Seahawks in the first round of the playoffs yeah they're locked in basically I wouldn't guess that maybe the bucks have like just more upside if like I mean again Tristan works didn't play like sure why she rooms getting healthy yeah yeah like we'd probably rather see them but hard to agree yeah we're hard to disagree with that

I don't think we think the Panthers are much of anything but again Panthers have like two of the biggest upsets of the season right winning they already beats the Rams technically I'm sure there's a Panthers fan listening to this right now and be like hey you bozo we just beat the Rams

bring them on bring them back to whatever whatever bank stadium as in Carolina so that's and again that's I guess fair And these teams have played this year, right? Yeah, they've played in conference.

So it would be a rematch either way. But yeah, I'm with you. It's they're not serious contenders. But that was a bad, a bad, bad, bad, bad loss. Anything else to jump out to you? We kind of touched on basically a roundabout way, every game, I think, for, oh, we talk about the cover. We talk about the Raiders and Broncos cover.

you see this no do we oh yeah i had the cover yeah at the end of the game yes i mean people like it's egregious this is crazy why did they kick a field goal i have no idea the time expired so like i get theoretically why you would kick the field goal is like hey we didn't need two scores we got to get one right now let's do it yep but like the whole thing being up to it was a little suspicious it was just like again just kind of an old school play it out coach right that's not necessarily in pete carroll's DNA and just be like are we're going to take a knee but it was like very aggressive with no timeouts with like you know 30 seconds left and like Kenny pickets taking chunk shots down the field yep they get again that's probably a delay a game

on breton jones for knocking the ball out of he kind of laid down on He didn't make the tackle. And if you didn't see this, you know, basically 10 seconds left, 20-yard throw, Tyler Lockett, who, again, 1,000% does what Tyler Lockett does, falls down before anyone can tackle him. He gets touched down by a defender, and then safety Brandon Jones comes in kind of lays on him

and then kind of as he's laying on him and getting up, knocks the ball out of Tyler Lockett's hands. It is, I think, at any other point in the game, probably called a delay game, and it's fair, from the official standpoint you have to call the game at any point in the game regardless of scoring situation but it stops the clock they have no timeouts they had no chance to get up to spike the ball it's a 10 point game eight and a half point spread well they call the penalty and he sends out the field goal unit from like 60 yards the kicker

booms one as time expires and they cover they lose by seven they don't even have the chance to take the on side so obviously anyone holding an eight and a half broncos ticket is irate anyone holding a you know raiders eight and a half ticket is like that's the most magical cover that i've ever been a part of i imagine it's on SVP's bad beats tonight i'm sure they unpack it a little bit but uh i am not i hate ref culture i hate conspiracy theory games are fixed culture it's a stupidest thing but like man this is a fodder for that uh subset of the internet dude insane i just like the also like I feel bad because like it it yeah like this feels like something that's like oh it's fixed

you know it's rigged like why would they even get the feel like like I actually I don't understand the agreement but like I mean I get it for this thing like you know this I was like yeah this is this just feels bad but like it's not it's just like feels really wrong and poor noise right was hilarious he was just going in just like yelling about nothing you know I didn't see that but that's that makes sense yeah he had a raiders ticket yeah he did he's like He's tweeting all these videos. It's just like going nuts on how the NFL's rigged and all this stuff. It was hilarious.

Oh, man. Quick note for any of our live viewers here, the Chargers have 20 minutes to activate Omari and Hampton. Okay. About 16 minutes at this point. So, yeah, I mean, if that doesn't happen, just put whatever you can on Kamani, but all props. So it's like 30 yards.

But who knows? Add it to the slip, be ready to submit when the news comes. That's where I'm at, just seeing, you know, what we can get down here and then, yeah, limits are good, Fanduil, all that. So we will see. Let's see some of the marquee games, I guess, for week 15. We can look at some future stuff there, too. Kind of touched on the Falcons, Tampa Bay game.

Texans are a sizable favorite at home against the Cardinals. No need to talk about that necessarily. Touched on the Bears, Browns game. Ravens Bengals, Ravens, two, two and a half point favorites on the road. 51.5. 52 point total. And he leans on Ravens. Bengals. I mean, I think I just need to, like, quit betting on the Ravens.

Like, I think it just needs to be, until they prove me wrong, that, like, they are. Bengals here, right? Yeah, yeah. I think so. Like, I mean, the Ravens have played, or, The Bengals have played better than the Ravens like for since they got back Joe Burrow and the Ravens haven't looked right in like a month and a half.

Yeah, and I don't know what's changing that, right? Like it is. Yeah. The Lamar stuff is fascinating. I mean, this was like, like DVOA standards. They were like a historically dominant offense last year and they almost ran it back. It was right part of why we were so bullish on the Ravens coming into the season because we're like, hey, look, they're running back, the core.

And they've actually added some pieces that I think are pretty interesting on the defensive side. And, you know, they just thought that they could have been a buzzsaw. And like Lamar just unsettled, like not ripping it, not electric, not running away from guys. The design stuff seems not as good. I, you know, I don't know. I feel like it's the Bengals. And we joke that they've killed the six point teaser, but like, man, bangles in a teaser here would be lovely. you'd be able to get, you know, nice, perfectly kind of long leg at home, you know, high total.

But I think any Bengals game with Joe Borough, a quarterback, needs a high total because defense sure is shit's not stopping anybody. So, yeah, it's Bengals for me. Chargers, Chiefs, Chiefs, four and a out point, home favorites here, 42 and a half, 43 is the total. Obviously, I have a better sense of how we feel about the Chargers. and if there's any lingering Herbert hand stuff, I guess I'm not too too worried about it. Maybe that's a mistake. Maybe we'll get some of those answers tonight.

But these teams have always seemed to play pretty close games. I mean, for me, we've been, again, we've been, end up, like, carrying the water for the chiefs all the way through. We're not alone. And it's been hard not to. But, like, this, the mindset of, like, other Baxter against the wall. Now, let's see how they respond. Like, kind of, we've been there for,

like three weeks they just haven't responded yeah and i mean they had a bunch tough matchups and i mean this is going to be another close game so yeah it's if i had to bet it probably taking the chargers here depending on what we see from herbert like if he can't throw the ball then you know it's a problem but i think he should be fun yeah let me pull up a pull up these odds for people um yeah i'm i'm not sure what to to make it at too i think he's going to be okay but we'll get a better answer for that tonight uh let's see here Jets Jags again with the quarterback situation

I don't feel 13 points I think we have five double digit favorites here this week so that's that's fascinating battle insane Eagles I mean well makes sense but yeah

Eagles 12 and a half Texans 10 some big ones yeah Niners um oh let's see here yeah Raiders Eagles that's a big one

uh commanders Giants playing out the string, Giants short home favorites here. Again, currently, via Tankathon would have the number one seed. I think we saw the Raiders are currently there too. But again, both teams have something to play for, theoretically. Losses. With a 3 and 10 commanders team and 2 and 11 Giants team.

We'll see what happens there. Bill's favorite in New England. One point, one and a half points, 49 point total, 50 yeah i mean 49 to 50 and a half basically is where we're at total wise uh this is disrespect this is insanely disrespectful uh but's okay i think you know patriots can build off of that what are your thoughts on on bill's patriots from an unbiased standpoint because i'm currently not unbiased i will tell on myself i would probably lean under and pat's but i think it's going to be a really good game.

Yeah. Yeah, I wish we had Milton Williams. I wish that, you know, Campbell was in the lineup. We'll see what happens. Like Robert Spillane got dinged up late or, you know, third quarter-ish in that game against the Giants the last time we saw the Patriots. We'll see what happens. Injury report-wise there.

But yeah, I wish the Patriots were healthy. The problem is the bills in terms of the division, the Patriots are still in a really good spot. They're still in a really good spot to be the number one team in the AFC because the Broncos schedule is pretty difficult. Let's see where the Broncos. We had it. Let me click into the Broncos.

The Broncos have a tough, tough slate. They host the Packers. It's kind of the next game there. Two and a half point home dogs to Green Bay here this week. Okay, they play Green Bay, Jacksonville, they go at Kansas City, and then host the Chargers. So, you know, four playoff teams-ish, well, three playoff teams and the Chiefs.

It's kind of a wild thing to say. You know, they're obviously going to make the playoffs, not worried about that. But in terms of the number one seed, that's kind of a tough runout compared to the Patriots having the dolphins and jets on the other side of their schedule too. So any thoughts on Denver being a two and a half point home dog? It's, like, I don't know why. It's just like one of those teams that, like, they're, I just said, get, I'm so uninspired by their offense, maybe some of their quick passing game kind of mitigate

some of the problems that Micah and them will cause, but they're getting pressure so fast with the four that, like, it allows them to drop back more, maybe even, like, they're just like, play, like, counteract some of what the Broncos could hypothetically do well. So I just, yeah, I have very low expectations for the Broncos scoring here. And then defensively, like, I don't think that the Broncos. Broncos match up super, super well against the Packers overall, I think part of the Broncos appeals that they have, they have Certan who can take away like a big option and the rest of the team is good, but not like, I mean, they're really, they're, you know, good unit in the secondary, but

they're not like, you know, all the league. It's a good point. Yeah. So, like, I think they did match up better against teams with like an alpha and then a bunch of shitters instead of a team like the Packers who was like five guys that can kind of win in different ways. And then LaFleur is a great schemer so I hate to bet on like you know the road favorite against a good team but I do kind of think that the Packers are the side. Yeah I do too. It feels it feels weird um again numbers one 10 in a row they're currently number one scene in the afc on their you know comfortable home dog here um never's just so weird there's such a weird it's been such a weird team like i just we're going to get into the playoffs with them and like

If they could win the entire AFC would not surprise me. Then winning the Super Bowl would surprise me. But they also could get bounced by any of these these teams. Oh, yeah, easily. Think about some of these wins that they've had. They had to come back.

Again, like the Giants win jumps out. Just the kind of late heroics, you know, commanders. Like they kind of barely held on to beat some of these teams and needed some fourth quarter magic to get it done. So, Packers Field. you make a good point with kind of how they're they're built to operate here uh lions rams another great one on the week five and a half six points this has kind of been cooked out a little bit the rams have taken some early money here 54 and a half the 55 and a half on the total

which is substantial um man the rams just he's the best team in football um i don't know that a great team, but I think they have the potential to be a great team. We're worried about the Lions who just continued it every week. It feels like last year, every week losing a impactful starter. Brian Branch now going to be out for the year. Kirby

Joseph has already been out for two months. Avanti Maddox is a bad slot corner that teams have been dying and not put on the fields and he's going to have to get starting safety snaps. Like the Rams are going to find Avanti Maddox and make him

Tuva Devante and Tuva Puka and figure some stuff out. So thoughts on this Lions, Rams number. I know our guy Hunter, who's crushing it this year on sides and totals. Crush it. I think he had like 5 and 1 this week, up like 40-something units on sides and total, which is awesome. He played over 53 and a half. That's up to 55. I doubt that he would still like it there or play it there, considering that's, you know,

point and a half moves a lot. But just in general, like, I think the Rams are going to be able to absolutely expose this lion's defense. So if I had to go somewhere, probably lean that way. The Rams defense, I mean, can be good. Like, they've played some good games. I think they have some good players. So it's like, but the lions have obviously been a wagon in their own right.

I just wonder, like, if they fall behind and Jared Gough's kind of forced into, like, you know, throwing mode and not running mode, like some blend. Like we've seen him fail kind of in those environments in the past. So we probably lean Rams and probably lean towards the over just because I think the Rams themselves could easily score 30 plus here. We probably will get some push back here. from the lines. Yeah, no, I agree.

Yeah, I mean, not on their Rams defense is entirely, but I think it's got some holes. They also have had some injuries. But yeah, I think you make another good point with the way Goff is, you kind of force him into taking away the run a little bit, right? Just the game gets flipped on its head and you force him into clear dropback situations.

That's a tougher, a tougher road for them for sure. So, yeah, and I just can't see us scenario where the Rams aren't scoring just a crap ton of points here. So, you know, Rams team total, you know, 30 or whatever, under 31 is probably a decent luck, just crazy. Let's see, we touched on just, you know, Colts Seahawks is a joke. It was going to be an interesting game and now is, you know, moved seven and a half, eight points with the quarterback news there.

We touched on Panthers Saints, Titans and Niners is 12. one-and-a-half, 13-point spread. Dallas and Minnesota. Again, Dallas would be a lot of fun to get in the playoffs. Their path, let me see. I think we're. I think it's done, done. Yeah, which sucks because they're fun.

They need so much help. Yeah. There, I mean, like, obviously, you know, the picking stuff, like, that happens on a Sunday, probably melds in the day. But you get, like, George Pickens and you get a couple of random things. Like, it's just such a polar-ripping. player like is piggins showed a pulse and looked really good and like we can't scroll the internet without finding a like pro george pickens piece is this the best duo water receiver group in the league

how much are they going to have to pay pickings in the off season and then you got like is he did he try for that ball and then it's just we got that's an island game on a Thursday night and we get a full 48 hours of piggins discourse before uh you know we get actual football again and that's yeah it's It's tough to listen to. He did not care like at all, basically. He didn't. He didn't out there. Yeah.

But he does do that from time to time. The schedule's not tough. They could lose to the Vikings, for sure. And again, they are six, six and a half point home dogs there Sunday night. Then they hosted Chargers, a game they can very much win. And then at commanders at Giants to finish the season. They can win out and they have a 43% chance to meet the playoffs. They basically would probably need some help with the Bears and Lions.

Those are the other two teams that are kind of in the mix. Again, they play each other. So they would need some help in those non-games. So, like, the Cowboys really need the Browns to win this week. And they need the Rams to win this week. So, you know, the Cowboys win and the Bears and Lions lose, that gets a little bit more interesting. Let's see what happens if we do that because we can do that.

here on the sim right so we get the rams win and we give a browns a win yes he jumps up we jump up 20 percent so this that brown's game is really impactful for the cowboys because then then we get a little bit spicy because then we go down here into week 16 we already gave the cowboys a win uh bears host the packers if that's a packers win now all of a sudden the cowboys are more likely to make the playoffs than the bears um what happens to the the Lions in this game or the Lions here. Lions play the Steelers. Interesting.

Let's see if the Lions win that game. Yeah, so the Lions would have the tiebreaker, but that, you know, the Bears, that Browns game really matters. Oh, it's huge, dude. It's massive. So Dallas's not done, not ready to bury Dallas. Because look at them.

I mean, the Bears, again, the tough, tough slate. Right, because the Bears are the tough one. They go to San Francisco. Oh, I mean, let's make that San Francisco. Now all of a sudden. The Cowboys are basically in the playoffs And the Bears are you're on dead So right

Must win game for the Bears Interesting Yeah Wow that's huge So let's see let's just take it off Let's give the bears the win here Yeah so I mean this is Yeah still not like completely dead

But definitely outside looking in Yeah Because then we go to WikiT and see the Cowboys beat Yeah they win there And then the Lions win So, again, even without it, if the Bears basically go one and three and the Cowboys win out, Cowboys still have a decent shot to make the playoffs. But things got real spicy if the Browns knock off the Bears here.

So what is the to make the playoff number for Dallas? Because again, it's shorter than it was this time last week because there was obviously some optimism heading into that. You made the playoffs almost 9 to 1. So it's a better odds than you would get. probably parlaying the rest of those Bears games so yeah that's true fascinating oh cowboys fans hold on yeah it's not over yet not over yet you never know because look I mean then they're they're they get in there the seven seed uh Packers Cowboys we've already done that uh in it tied it was 40 40 that's a very

interesting first round of the playoffs right is uh that's a marquee sunday marquee spot is is cowboys packers right considering where we will be the packers or the cowboys will be in like the pulse of the NFL at that point having one four straight to kind of work their way in would kind of be fascinating so all right i think that covers uh dolphin stealers Monday night Steelers are three and a half I don't have any interested in that game at all maybe i will have been elevated from from the ir yep right at the buzzer um cancel the slip yeah yeah um i didn't bet anything but thanks not that's why you're having the slip though you're ready to pound right exactly um could have could have gone the other way you never know yeah uh let's see here any other

futures or anything you want to look at um i think jump out to you i thought matthew stafford's moving the MVP market was a little aggressive it was like just because he did have an awesome game but i mean the pats were on by um i don't know like wasn't may the favorite last week yeah we flip off the last couple every week yeah um i would honestly buy mayor and then just wait until he has an awesome game if he beats the bills like like he's definitely going to be the favorite then again. And so then you can kind of flip-flop again and buy more on Stafford, probably. I think right now it's basically a two-man race barring Josh Allen just going like insane mode the last couple weeks and winning it.

Jordan Love, I guess, like, it's not crazy to see him. If you like, again, if the Packers just like keep crushing. But I don't know. I think it's basically a two-man race at this point, to be honest. Yeah, I agree. I feel like we've been here for a little bit. those two have kind of entered the fray a little bit Josh Allen is

I think somewhat correlated with Drake May right if Drake goes or you know Josh Allen goes nuts and they you know Patriots stumble a little bit and then they come back and they win the division that would be interesting for Josh Allen but you know 15 to 1 is not really rich enough for me to kind of get in speculate in that spot whereas I still think Stafford's a you know

a definite viable candidate and he's not out of mix right like you would also Josh Allen play is bills went out Pat's really stumble Seattle wins the you know the West and he's the number one seeds right you need some and even even then

he won last year right so yep and you know there's a little bit of a little bit of voter fatigue we got that last year with Lamar so yeah it's a real thing interesting yeah let's see here it's a player of the year Here, yep, again, probably still is too short.

I don't know, like, Micah and Will Anderson have been awesome, and Benino's been really good, slow down a little bit, a sack two yesterday. It would be some really great defensive performances from some of these guys this year, but again, Miles Garrett's going to, he was minus 400 to get a sack yesterday. I've never seen that before. Like, minus 400. Again, it was...

Sam Ward, who's, you know, taking the most sacks in the league. But it's just kind of crazy. You know what breaks my heart is the offensive rookie of the year market that Woody Marks is seeing like 20 touches a game and just sucks so bad that he can't do anything and it's still 175 to 1. On a team that's made, probably going to make the playoffs, you have to scroll. Like he's 100 worse than Kyle Minungai and RJ Harvey. And I mean, this is real disaster.

you're definitely sad so you know one of those the process was great he's seeing work he's playing down the stretch and their offensive line stinks and i think he might just think so it's kind of a problem it's tough not as tough as uh as ashen genty though yeah that's worse he was the favorite right yeah they weren't in there yeah for sure tough uh yeah tammie milling jackson dart uh abucus definitely no one would vote for shudder would they if he wins like a couple games i don't think so i don't think so either i think it's just too late right it's like what did didn't flacco come in like what week was it like 12 or 13 something yeah they ended up winning nature that award is so weird anyway though

yeah it's like comeback player of the year i mean these these top of the board though for the rookie of the year is just like not inspiring though no i know i know i and that is interesting i guess if Carolina makes the playoffs but I mean some of these you know this is not a team based award offensive rookie of the year so I'm putting 10 bucks on Shudor I mean it's huge probably wasting money

but it's 250 to 1 so yeah um if we talk about it and even think about it which is what we're doing right now and he wins somehow you know I'd be just so upset it goes into Chicago and beats the bears right that's what I'm saying which we already said is possible and balls out

like balls out against the bears they win like one or two other games. If it beats the Bears, he'll be like 50 to 1, 60 to 1. Right. Right. You'll be going to, you know, cash your $10 out for $25 if you wanted to. Yeah.

That's, I mean, that's the goal, you know. Just turn, turn cash outs. Yeah, that's kind of, that's kind of worth a sprinkle here. Defensive rookie of the year. Emma Worry had a great game. I've been saying that for about a month, this is a two-man award. finally Janele Walker slept back a little bit more he's awesome but Carson's Wessinger 12 tackles again he's got double-digit tackles in like four or five straight games

gets another nice spot this week against the bears we'll probably run the ball a bunch and he gets another dozen tackles I don't know it just feels like he's he better win that damn award let's see I think that's kind of that's kind of it we don't have some of the other comeback player of years I just don't understand this award it's a handicap it. Yeah, McCaffrey's been awesome, but I don't even know. Should he be the offensive player in the year? That swung massively this week, too, with John and Taylor.

Jason, massive favorite, couple touchdowns, Taylor, the team situation. Obviously, that's going to get tougher. Gibbs has been awesome. McCaffrey's been awesome. These four, McCaffrey should probably be shorter, but he's not going to, not going to come back on on jSN there so not a great current state of awards to jump into expectatively i think the afc playoff pitcher so jumbled i don't really have like a spot to jump into on the a fc playoff board right the nfc is pretty wide open um there's a couple of teams

that are shorter than others that aren't great prices so their super bowl numbers are pretty suppressed because they're probably going to be a favorite regardless of who comes out of the I'm not a great award season I don't think no nothing too fun except for when shit erwin's uh rookie either I like it good speculative head all right that wraps this up anything else with people any Monday night place anything else you uh what's hot people want our we didn't have our Mayo show today so people want some uh Monday place yeah it's it's tough of the two I had written down for the Mayo show I actually started prepping the Mayo show I forgot we weren't even doing it um I

liked Gadsden under and then Hampton carries under and another service by both of those like two hours ago so those numbers are cooked out cooked out a little bit unfortunately um I think this game's gonna be super ugly so I think we're just a lot of unders is the way to go can I interest you in a Jalen Hertz under completions 17 and a half maybe but I think it's like plus 100 I don't I mean vibes are so bad I don't I think you'll have a sweat yeah you're not getting crushed by

Jaylor Hertz like the play volume so low like the combination of their play volume is really low opposing teams running the fewest plays in the league against the Chargers that their play volume against is low there's not a lot of pace like again plays I think are going to be at a minimum in this game compared to a standard game

so now you're talking about superb efficiency for Jalen Harts and I don't feel that that's probably happening so that's an interest to me that's not bad now I kind of like that that's a fun look yeah like 17 and a half I'm not widely available yet I don't think I think like Nikobie dean over six and a half

tackles is interesting played full-time snaps for the first time last game against the bears because he came back he's been playing like 60% of snaps and you think he played all but one so combination of I think a heavy run game script and stuff like that. Like, even with depressed plays, I think that's pretty interesting.

So that's one of my tackle looks. Fun. All right. Appreciate everyone hanging out with us. We'll be back with Mayo next Monday. I think we'll be back here. Move the line. 4-4-4-Live on YouTube's on Friday for Prop Drop.

So appreciate everyone hanging out with us, as always. Get to subscribe, like. Go to 4-4.com, take advantage of Sharpstack. 3-7-day trial. Connor. I'm Ryan. We'll see all next time. Thanks, everybody.