Move The Line - Move The Line - Week 17 Betting Recap & Week 18 Early Predictions!

Episode Date: December 29, 2025

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Hello and welcome to move the line presented by Sharpstack Ryan Noon and joined by all by joined here as always by Connor Allen for 17 weeks in man you can tell starting to take its toll you know it's a little weird week between the holidays and break what's going out with you buddy how are we doing today yeah I'm normally in Mexico during these times what's extra weird so I log in the slack and I'm like are people working right now like what's the vibe you know like what's going on here uh thankfully it seems like most meetings are canceled obviously football work never really ends but you know it's like uh most other you know corporate shit was canceled so that was good um exciting to see that got some other stuff done

some life stuff so that was cool um but wild week of games and the thursday slate i thought was like the christmas slate honestly it was kind of better or more interesting than i thought it was going to be with the vikings upsetting the lions and then the uh cowboys upsetting or the cowboys you know drop in 30 on the commander which is not that surprising i guess but um yeah i don't know i guess we talked about it a little bit on friday we don't need to go too deep but i thought it was kind of interesting broncos tried to give it to the chiefs which is i think just kind of the broncos mo which makes them a fascinating team and uh you know why the playoffs in general really on both conferences it feels is wide open as it ever has part of it is just the big bad chiefs are removed from the you know the equation

you don't have I guess the strength of the lingering teams especially in the AFC it's been Buffalo and Baltimore the last couple years they don't feel as strong they might both get in the dance but they don't feel like these inevitable world beaters

that are going to run into the Chiefs at some point they just seem like they have their own flaws and then on the other side we shift to the NFC and I think we think it's wide open I think there are a lot of sentiment around the Rams being you know a really good team one of the best teams they could be the five or six seed and like that's a tough path right like you know road games all the way through versus you know the perceived lock number one seed hosting a bunch of games too right so that buy becomes massively important and they're on the wrong side of it they're on the outside looking in they're not even playing for the buy so uh which i think makes some award stuff interesting we can get to that here today too for sure i'm trying to just parse through like what to talk about whole what matters. I think going below by below through the week 17 board is not necessarily a

great use of our time or the audience's time. Like do you need our breakdown of Saints Titans yesterday? You probably don't. It's probably not helping you for week 18 very much. Though I will say Tyler Shug was entertaining. Cam Ward had some entertaining play. But I'm not quite sure what's in making. Let's look where we are now. Let's look at the relevant stuff. I'm going to share, got a few things here to share today. Look at the Athletic, New York Times.com, a playoff tracker thing that we've been looking at the last couple of weeks, which I think, I don't know,

it just helps us get a sense, thank you. All right, Bronco is currently there. I can run through all these different iterations of what happens. In the AFC, Broncos currently your number one seed. They play the Chargers in week 18, Connor. and let's see currently have i think that's like a touchdown favorite yeah broncos minus seven and half yeah so oh so seven it's so we're moving right so there this to me smells like the market thinks that the chargers aren't trying here um right because i don't think we would

think that this this line would not be through the seven if we thought we were getting a full-on chargers broncos game no way it would be what like three three yeah two and a half Yeah, which is good news for Denver's number one C and AFC With the Chargers, obviously not necessarily locked into anything in particular Depending on what happens Their most likely scenario right now is there the seventh seed And would go to New England In round one assuming New England takes care of business against Miami

As you can see here they are 10 and a half 11 point favorites here It's pretty interesting Miami is pretty feisty They've been playing some good ball I mean, New England, you know, is as well, obviously. But, you know, Miami is definitely feisty. New England should take care of business there. That kind of clears the path there, which makes some of the stuff in the AFC kind of fall into line.

Really just comes down to a couple of the island games, right? We get, you know, Charger, or we get Steelers Ravens on Sunday night for all the marbles in the north. basically comes down to who gets to host to Texans for the most part not a prize I necessarily want to win

but seems the most likely of outcomes and I believe we have three points favored there for the Ravens on the road three and a half now so we're taking some some Ravens money this morning

I think it's just pretty interesting again no DK Medcalf again so and then we obviously have the other big marquee game on Saturday which is for the NFC number one seed Seattle and San Francisco which is coming off of a pretty entertaining battle between those two teams

I think we got the two teams last night Chicago and San Francisco which I feel like by law are required to play in highly entertaining football games like Bears just cannot play in a boring game which is really cool bears play games for 25 years so high voltage it was that was so it's such a fun game so I would love to see them play again the playoffs I don't think that it's shape

up to be like that but um i mean well maybe no no probably not but the yeah i think the ravens sealers one was interesting though because there was reports today they're not even sure if Lamar is going to play again um yeah i don't know if i'd make the ravens three and a half point favorites with tyler hunley on the road would you um i thought three made sense um again partially because I mean what was the Steelers offense history we touched on it on the pre-show like uh it was it was insane it was uh yeah I don't know where I saw like they still tried to run they just didn't do a really good job of like optimizing for the talent that they had you know they like all right let's shift to I thought we're just going to see a lot of

a lot of running back dumpoffs and a lot of funny weird stuff with tight ends right like just getting Janu involved and short intermediate stuff. And they're just like, yeah, you know what? We're just going to do what we do. We're just going to put Scotty Miller in D.K.'s role and see how that works. We're just going to send him a bunch of one-on-one contested catches situations against Denzel Ward and see if Scotty Miller can win. And that went about as well as you would expect it.

Yeah, it was not good at all. I honestly, like, I kept watching the game. I was like, I don't know who these guys are that they're throwing to. I mean, it was like, I mean, I know who Scotty Miller is, but I was like, who's 13 on the Steelers. Like I just couldn't at first glance. Yeah.

No. Barrington, Illinois's finest, Scotty Miller. Seven targets, just turned that into three for 25. I mean, Adam Thielen even saw five targets and he's dusty. MBS continues to just do nine targets. He converted three of those. I mean, that's just pathetic. They were running the ball okay.

I mean, but that, you know, it's still just not. I don't know. I mean, his brown defense is pretty good, though. So I think, like, they're better than, they're better than the Ravens defense. So, yeah, I'm watching my hero, Carson Swessinger, literally get picked up off the turf by his teammates every single play. He hurt his leg early in the game. And I'm like, oh, no, like, he's got to get out of the game. They're going to take advantage of he's literally just like, he's hobbling on and off the field.

He can't get up. As soon as, like, the ball snapped, he's fine. and then the play's over and he's like is he getting up this time at no point did they like try to put him in like coverage or go after him with tight ends or running backs like how am i watching this game going like there's a liability in the middle of the fields he is not well um but they're like yeah you know what we're fine we're just going to take deep shots let's chuck it down there to scotty miller again see what he can do so uh the most ravens in your most stealer situation than i could ever imagine so yeah i It feels like three and a half is a lot. It just is never a bet that I'm going to make. But I think you're right. It feels kind of like a little bit of an overreaction. But like I do think the Medcaf, at least what he does, like allows you to do or like gives you the threat of doing was definitely he was missed.

That was felt big time yesterday, even though they tried to make it like it wasn't a thing. So. Yeah, agreed. And you've been able to run pretty easily on the Steelers all season long, right? If you've had any somewhat of a running game, they've been. They've been gashed by running backs all season. And we're coming off of a 36 carry, nearly 200-yard Derek Henry game. So very curious.

I don't think we've seen that yet. Let's take a look. I wonder what the, because I've seen some pretty early stuff. Like we're getting some San Francisco, Seattle stuff. It's a Sunday night game. So we're probably not going to get anything on the Ravens. No, nothing right now.

Yeah. Like, what are they going to align Henry's carries at? it's got to be like 22 and a half 3 23 yeah it's probably might be light yeah uh i mean i'm not going to chase it but i do think that it's like yeah it's super so many yeah especially coming off that massive game yeah and the Steelers do uh their opponents average the most point or place per game um in league so you can give them like a 45% rush share and it still might be Yeah, you know, 28 carries. A little Keaton Mitchell in there, too.

Then we also are going to have a situation on Saturday. The first game there is Carolina in Tampa Bay with Tampa Bay a three-point favorite with some two and a half. It's a little bit of Carolina money. Again, two completely not serious football teams. One of them is going to win the division, although there is that weird scenario where the Falcons are in play. Yeah, what is it? It's like, how do we get there?

So we get there with a Carolina win and then the Falcons win out. So the Falcons have to win tonight. So this dies if the Falcons don't win tonight. And then if the Falcons win next week against the Saints and Carolina wins, and they're all eight and nine, common opponent would go to the Falcons. What? I mean, that's crazy. I thought the Falcons were basically done

They are and you even look into like the simulator stuff They will tell you that they are done But then if we go here They're not gonna win tonight but I agree I don't think they're gonna win tonight But if we go in here and we click Let's just kind of walk through this Yeah I what they're seven and a half eight point dogs

Less than one right zero So we go the Falcons Falcons run the sims it's still yeah i don't even know if it's still like telling you the panthers would have to win yeah maybe the sims are wrong maybe the sims yeah maybe sims is like wait we're not even because the same is telling us we're 100% out yeah which is not right i saw this yesterday on the screen too i just didn't fully understand it yeah as a common opponent

situation where they uh maybe there's a few other i mean this is probably just design of they're out because whenever they're I'm sure there's some stuff on their back in that's feeding that that would impact that but yeah because it wouldn't matter any other game it wouldn't matter of any other scenario of any other impact of any other

NFC team because it's just a division so this is true there is a off chance that a falcons the Falcons win and and make it which be just absolutely insane I wouldn't want to play the Saints I think the Saints are currently the best team

in this division I agree they're playing like it for sure Tyler Shug seems like a building block for the future at least for now Or maybe it's the other way Maybe it's the Falker or the The Bucks got to win this game

I don't know what it is But thought in multiple places Written up this morning Son on Steve Kornacki last night You know Absolutely bizarre I think you're right I think it was the Panthers had to win

I just don't think that It's like accounting for the second tiebreaker Of all those things You know what I mean But, yeah, I kind of like, I kind of think Carolina is interesting. I don't know, like three-point dogs on the road against the Bucks. They continue to just like, their defense plays pretty, it's been playing pretty well.

The Bucks offense has been like lifeless for, I don't even know, a month it seems like. So something seems up with Baker. Maybe it's just not like the, because they're missing Tristan Wurfs, I think, this game too. I don't know. It's like something's off with this team. let's see here so yeah carolina money line plus 130 this is what i thought was interesting you have stages of elimination bets available uh on most books so like if you like carolina doesn't make sense okay so it's like the same price let's say just if you like

carolina in the game obviously there's you know it can lose but you know it's like if you get a better number losing the wild card rounds you should better off taking that uh but it looks to be the same price so why bring in that risk for no advantage right good on you fan duel for pricing that i guess correctly or maybe uh predatory pricing uh but uh if i'm like there could be an edge here and kind of exploring some of the stages of elimination stuff here today but but not really that looks to be the same price what's tampa bay tamba bay stage of elimination if you were to pick them to lose on the wild card round they're plus 165 so that's actually interesting right because they are minus 142 to win this game so Carolina actually or Tampa Bay is actually a decent

bad if you like Tampa Bay in that game because I mean doesn't mean that they can't win obviously they can they can lose they can be whoever but they're going to play either the Rams Seahawks or Niners yeah they're going to lose that game they'll lose that game right so you can get them plus 165 to lose that game instead of laying the 140 150 for them to win this week what do you think that they would um be next week like they'd probably be a sock they would be will they'd be at home maybe at home might be like what five and a half to six six and a half point dog somewhere like i don't think they'd ever reach seven you know no i don't think we reach seven either so you're looking like sixish point dogs so

Yeah, just trying to think through this. So I think there's any ways to kind of piece through that. Jeff, the Bears did not win, but a hell of a football game, right? Like, whoo, good times. Defense is not good. Niners defense, more the same. There's a lot of commonality between those two teams. Like minimal pass rush can be opportunistic.

You know, injuries have been a problem. The offenses can just kind of go. blow for blow and uh so we got last night this is highly entertaining football not necessarily good football but highly entertaining football um Jeff Tram and dunk on us uh with the Bears losing we're okay I can we live here we don't we don't love them I mean it's yeah it's like we just live here we're both technically

transplants you know it was awesome football like it was also like I mean they could have easily won by the end their defense is who we thought they were like they They are not a good unit. They just force turnovers and they embrace chaos. And it's fun. It's great. Yeah, Bears don't want to play in Chicago. It's part of the plan.

Exactly. Well, they get one game in Chicago, I think. Yeah. They'll get. Yeah, almost assuredly playing Green Bay. Which, I guess, like, so they're going to have, right, they'll have, like, probably a banged up Jordan Love. Like, maybe highly unlikely to be 100%, maybe 90%.

And then, like, Josh Jacobs is not full health. They don't have Micah. Like, I think the Packers are still probably a better team. But, like, I don't know. I mean, it's going to be a close game. The Michael loss is huge. Like, everyone else. Again, I'll go back to, like, Devante Wyatt,

I went down for the season, too, like, week 14. Like, he's a really good internal pass rusher and a great run defender those are huge huge losses like it's really been no one else like Sean Gary's massively disappointed Lucas van Ness they haven't got anything out of that pick he's been hurt when he plays he doesn't do anything so mike made everything a little bit easier for those guys to be at least average and without him bears look like I mean the packers up front look like the Niners right there's just no real pass rush and that's you know I don't know, you can get Caleb off his spot.

You can get him going to kind of, you know, make some mistakes or force some stuff or it's just not really going to happen with this current iteration of the Packers. And you just saw last night, if you give him time, like, I mean, he was just gunning lasers, you know, downfield. Like, because if you give him time and you can actually sit there and chill, it's pretty, pretty lethal. Still not super consistent, but, you know, can make stuff happen pretty easily.

So I don't know. I think it's going to be a close game. I would, if you're the Bears right now and you had, a choice between playing the Niners or the Packers, I think I would almost actually probably rather play the Packers right now, to be honest. Yeah, I think so, too. But I know we were kind of on the Packers train, but just the way they match up.

Like, I mean, the Niners could, there's no reason the Niders couldn't just score 40 on them again the next time. I don't think the Packers are set up to do that. No, agree. And the Bears, they like lost time of possession in a pretty substantial way on that first or that second matchup just a couple weeks ago at home, right? They had a lot of success running the ball.

They just didn't control the clock. they also struck with big plays uh green bay really kind of controlled the ball and we just saw green bay again struggle against the run again with with king henry the bears want to run the football you know they can you know dial it up and in and do what they did last night but i think all said and done they'd love to keep the game script neutral or like play from ahead and control and dictate pace through the run game right yeah and then caleb off of play action has been electric so so it is a bad for the backers and real quick too uh jeff said connor rides too hard for chicago to be a transplant um jeff i don't know where you were with the years during the justin field's years but i was all in on the

unders all in on you know worst record all this stuff so you know i was getting fights at local chicago bars with people because they didn't believe me that the bears were going to be garbage um so you know you pick your battles i think they're pretty they're a decent team they're not perfect but they're fun to watch at least for the first time. We can be, they can be good and like insanely lucky with an like unsustainable turnover variance and we saw

in the first play of the game last night they've had that all season long. It doesn't mean that they're not good and they can't win but like success rate down by down they're a below average defense and there's going to be times where that that kind of jumps on. Yeah. So the Bears do.

I want to keep up for the Bears here a little bit for a second. I shared this. Bears fans have derangement syndrome. Source. Hank here is a lifelong Bears fan. I shared this with Connor and our Slack chat. It doesn't matter a ton for Pro Bowl voting, but there is a fan vote element.

And the Bears fans went so hard for their team. it was insane and almost in admirable in a way like I feel like you know I respect the passion that these people had because like Nick McLeod is probably the worst cornerback in the league that took a fair share of snaps this year he was awful he's like eighth in fan voting because like early season he's just out there all the time so the fans are just like all right who's out there and they're just like casting their ballot for everybody like you see like Austin Booker was ahead of like you know Max Crosby in the fan like just absolutely insane do you watch by the way awesome booker last night put on a highlight reel just like a low light reel i mean dude was just like on skates the entire night just like sliding around brock purdy he's a little stiff in the hips uh yeah he did he didn't get a couple pressures which is fine like but you put him outside of anywhere outside of like what he's supposed to do and he doesn't look like he belongs in the nfl at all like i like just can't change directions like that apparently or um yeah it was really bad

Yeah, there's some guys that can do a little bit of everything. Some guys are, you know, singular skill sets. And, you know, that's why Austin went late day two, early day three. Yeah. Yeah. So I was looking at this next week, though. So bears obviously play the Lions, just as we're talking about the Bears here. Yeah.

Two and a half point favorites against the Lions, pretty meaningless game, I think, for the Bears, right? At this point, meanwhile, also a meaningless game for the Lions. I don't think Dan Campbell is just going to like, I mean, Dan Campbell is definitely, going to play their starters for a certain period of time, I think just based on where Ben Johnson comes from, the Lions, I would guess that they're going to play for at least a half, the Bears' starters, just like keep things going. But I don't know. I mean, like, what, this, this doesn't, this doesn't feel like that line.

Like, I don't know. This feels like one of those, like, I don't know. Like, I feel like the Lions could be an interesting value. I don't think the Bears started going to play the whole game. They're so injured already. well the bears do yeah they want the two seat they want to win this game um right that's uh i believe that's the case so because everyone else is right there there's a there's a jumble for who would be because the eagles you know have the commanders right so if the eagles beat the commanders and the bears

lose then uh uh eagles would be the two and the bears would be the three and then the bears would get the Niners or Seahawks instead? Yeah, but then it becomes the next round if it's, you know, they move on and they are playing the Eagles, they got to go on the road versus hosting that game at home. That's fair. Okay.

Yeah, that's true. So then, yeah, they could get two home games. So then, yeah, they're going to. So you can make the case that the bear should be probably more than two and a half point favorites. Yeah, then vice versa. It's tricky. This is week 18.

Oh, you know what the word is here, though? we're going to take the under in this game 50 and a what's the weather looking like for chicago next next sunday this is perfect small hands golf scenario oh my gosh this is i've been dreaming about this for like six months since i saw the schedule um let's see whether chicana i think it's cold um it's not that cold oh damn so yeah sunday high of 40 that's way too warm uh wind is 13 degrees. So it'll be like feels like probably, I don't know, let's hear. 40, morning tea time. I know. This is crazy. It was 50 degrees yesterday. Do you go outside? Yeah.

That's, well, that's kind of disappointing, honestly, because I was excited to bet against golf, just no matter what. But. It still could be cold enough. I mean, it's like if it, is it, is it a noon game? What time are we looking at? No, late afternoon. So in the dark. Late afternoon.

Yeah, we're looking at, okay, 37, high of 37, real field 27, like, and that's at the high. So it'll probably be a little bit colder than that. I still might be in. 15 mile per hour wins. Yeah. No, he's trying to do the opposite, Jeff. He's trying to play against golf in Coldwell. not on golf I think he's saying golf okay yeah oh no okay yeah I'll play golf in 40 degree weather man

we don't have the choice here in Illinois I'll take whatever I can get there's a track not too far for me that stays open year round so um all right so then yeah I still I'm still I'm back on the under again all right I'm I talk to myself back into it um gonna be a lot of running I think on both sides here probably just regardless but yeah maybe bears two and a half i think it's kind of interesting yeah there was some thought that again it was week two uh that the lions ran it up a little bit on the bears the first time they were up by a decent amount and very much could have like kicked a field goal with like two three minutes left but like went four on fourth down and got a touchdown about the little personal at the time

I don't know about you. Benjones, it seems like a guy that, like, just doesn't forget. And I don't know. It could be something there. I could see a statement game. Let's just go in, riding high with some momentum. Let's put this, like, divisional bow to rest. Just kind of lay the wood on him a little bit.

So, yeah, I'll be interesting to see what happens. I imagine the same thing. Like, Dan Campbell's going to play all of his guys that are active. For sure, yeah. That might not be Amin Rao, though. Looks like he's dealing with some knee stuff. And so if they shut him down or that could be interesting. So some of these other games are really hard to parse through on the slate.

We kind of walk through it. Any thoughts on Seattle, San Francisco? Looks like Seattle's short favorite on the road there, $39.5.50. It's a lot of points, considering Seattle's defense is pretty electric. Any leans there? Probably lean Seattle, just based on, like, the Niners' defense is really bad

in its current iteration. So, like, I feel like Seattle is going to get in trouble when they play tougher defenses or if they play tougher defenses. Like, that just might not be in cards for them, just based on kind of the draw here and, like, who's healthy. Like, the Rams, Seahawks, yeah, I mean, Seahawks and Rams have the two best defenses

and the Eagles probably at this point. I think they might struggle against Eagles if they played them at some point. But like I'm just trying to think hypothetically. Like I think that's where they could run into issues with Darnold kind of turning into, you know, turning into Cupcake. We've seen it happen a couple times in the last couple of years. So that would be, I think their downfall, but their defense is legit. And the Niners, I mean, I just don't think match up well defensively against basically anyone at this point.

Yeah. Yeah, it's not, it's not great. It seems like a lot of points. again we're just coming off of obviously the niner scoring a ton so i think that's that's in our mind but that's a lot of points yeah i mean people forget the bears events is also you know not very good either they just get a lot of turnover so yeah i think 49 and a half seems seems i would like the under there uh the indianapolis colts and texans

houston texans this is like 10 and 10 and a half um where again the texans need that game for seating um you know they could slide down, you know, even to the seventh seed without it. They are the five seed, I believe, with a win there. I don't know who we're going to see a quarterback for the Colts. I'm not quite sure that it matters too, too, too much. Yeah, I mean, this is a huge game for them, right? Because like, if they're the five seed, then they get one of the Ravens or the Steelers, which is correct. I think it's kind of probably a big deal. Also, they've mentioned that Philip Rivers might not play in this game,

which I think is very bad for the Colts, who I think he's been, I mean, he hasn't been good, but like, no, shot off to Rivers. He's been okay,

right? Fine, yeah. Yeah, which is, I think definitely more than we thought. 100%. I mean,

he's five years post retirement. He's 45 years old. He clearly still knows bald, can't execute every throw. I mean, the receivers are fine. Like, you know,

it's not like it's a great surrounding cast by any means. And he's like getting it done and like, making games somewhat competitive for parts of the game. So I don't know. Like I don't think that he's that bad, but I think Riley Leonard might be, might be that bad. So yeah,

against the Texans, I mean, what are we looking at a teen total wise? There are 40 point total, 10 point favorites? We're looking at like 25, 15, right? So 15 point team total. Yeah. It's tough.

Might be high. Yeah, that's, that's that's i mean it's still tough like i don't know are they are they going to score two touchdowns or just have to be just jonathan taylor basically there's a moment jonathan taylor in this game probably not yeah that's the thing right so some of these are unprecedented scenarios with like what does this coach in this scenario do um there was a moment on saturday when the texans lost um it lasted her for like a couple of plays and like The Chargers had a pulse offensively.

Last year came right back in the game, nothing again. So, like, I know a lot is made of Will Anderson and DeNeil Hunter, and they are awesome. But, like, this is the best secondary in the league. And I, like, I would give it slightly a little bit better than Seattle, which is tough because you know how much I love Seattle in their secondary. Like, Houston's awesome. Yeah, I'd say this defense is a real, real, real thing. And Riley Leonard shocked me how good he looked in that little half against Jacksonville early in the year.

I'm like, all right, they're just going to like, they're going to do some Malik Willis. Well, we thought, you know, two years ago, Malik Willis B.S was just like hide him, get the ball out quick. First read, nope, tuck and run, design run, gadgety stuff. And they're like, no, we're going to let Riley Leonard drop back a ton and chuck it around. And it went okay. I don't feel great about that here against the Texans. So a game that they really need. no i mean even with daniel jones they lost 20 to 16 um against the texans earlier that was

basically full strength johnathan taylor danio jones yeah they had almost the whole crew there so yeah don't envision that being much going much better this time i did i do want to say though that the colts defense like lou anerumo kind of dialed up some nice stuff against the jaguars last week like kept him at bay for most of the game yeah um really made it really tough on him honestly most of the times when they scored kind of like came after like a random long play or like a penalty like they got bailed out a couple times by penalties so like

could have easily honestly won that game and yeah I thought it was I don't know like respectable what they did with that defense so yeah maybe the under here is another interesting play yeah especially without DeForest Buckner who really matters and that's a game Jacksonville loses most times

right so maybe there is something going on with Jacksonville where Liam Cohn really is getting some stuff done there because that feels like a game that like Trevor Lawrence loses nine times out of ten based off of you know historical comps and stuff we've seen from him yeah so all right Cleveland Cincinnati I don't know what to make of that game

rounds plus seven and a half I think the points probably I you know burrow just doesn't seem like a guy who wants to sit um right now he cares though out there he's just kind of like chucking it he throws an incompletion he's like yeah whatever he throws a touchdown he's like whatever like he's just kind of like you know yeah eat more of the sidelines which is I guess good like playing loose but

um I don't know it doesn't seem like you really cares all that much yeah it's weird um look the falcons aren't going to win tonight so this won't matter as much so give me the saints yeah saints money line right also the falcons are going to lose tonight because the rams benefit first of all the rams need to win the rams is a double win for the rams because the rams improve their own draft position by beating the falcons right they have the falcons first round pick they want the falcons to lose um they're way better team stafford could throw for 500 yards if they really wanted them to yeah yeah they're winning that game so uh i will like the saints and the points here

um and 43 a half might be a little light and be uh honest on the on the total um yeah but i would take the points with the Falcons, or Saints, I'm sorry, I would take the points of the Saints, or maybe the Saints team total, something there short of, you know, 22 and a half or something like that would be pretty enticing, trying to pump those Tyler Shuck bags, see if we can get home. Green Bay and Minnesota, Green Bay feels like a spot where, and you can see it baked in the line here with the Vikings, you know, anywhere from five and a half to seven point favorites. Green Bay, essentially locked into the seven seed.

and will, I think, rest a good amount of guys this week. So what does that look like, considering they seem to rest their receivers every week with their weird rotations. It's going to mean probably more Malik Willis, who's actually been, like, really good. Yeah, he's been fun. He was throwing darts on that, like, in that game.

Like, he was, I know that they lost, but like, I mean, he was throwing some he was ripping some dimes like honestly i was very impressed he looked good so and the running stuff wasn't like didn't seem panicked it was just like it's here yeah and then they ran like the zone option stuff and then the scrambles that came i think organically didn't seem forced his live rushing line dropped to like 25 and a half in the second quarter right before you know he had zero rushing yards which is very strange um right it felt like a miss pre-flop because he was 31 and a half or something like that

and I know there were questions about his shoulder heading into the game but yeah he's just he looks like he's definitely going to be in a spot where he's competing for someone's so I guess the question is though is like with love kind of dinged up and he's like beat up he had like a shoulder issue at the end of the game did they just start clean tune yeah yeah like because otherwise I would like the over and the packers in that game Yeah, there's a real chance, right? Depending on, I think it'll tell us a little bit about how healthy Jordan love really is. Yeah.

Right? Because if they feel like we need to really protect, you know, Willis as well, then I probably would like the Bears even more in the playoffs in that matchup, considering that that's probably what that matchup looks like. So, yeah, I think it'll be telling. But, you know, this is itself telling that we have the Vikings, which could be, you know, Max Brosmer again? Max Brasmer and Clayton, too.

Should Max Brasmer be, you know, playing the touchdown against anybody? No, probably not. All right. Well, that's a way and C game, I think. Yeah. It's a way and C game. But, right, I mean, Packers, and we see massive line movement at Week 18. We start to get more information.

You're like, this game can flip 10 points. Like, this could very easily be Packers minus two and a half, Packers minus three. And, you know, 24 hours from now. So Packers getting seven somewhere. it feels like a decent speculative play because they could I think shut the whole thing down and still cover seven against Max Brosmer I kind of agree it's kind of funny yeah Jacksonville and Tennessee Jacksonville needs this game that's reflected in the line you know 12 and a half on you know draft king circa some 11 a half is out there too

you in Tennessee's been playing out the string here for a while Tennessee obviously could hurt their draft status, but they don't have the number one to pick anyway. So they've already kind of done that damage. You know, Jacksonville needs this game too. They could still, I mean, they need to lock up the division. So Jacksonville locks up the division with a win. So that's reflected there in the line. Dallas and the Giants feels like they're playing out the stretch.

I mean, Giants came out full force against the Raiders yesterday, which is definitely interesting. I felt like I should have gone back to the 8th. ATM, Juan Del Robinson, who, you know, got home in the first quarter, first half in that game, catching a ton of balls. Giants decided they wanted to bring back the forward pass after giving a couple weeks off of the forward pass. But any thoughts on what to make of Dallas and the Giants?

Yeah, I mean, Giants definitely try it a lot more than they, I thought they were going to against the Raiders. Like, they're starting deck again. think that there's some credence to DAC maybe going for the passing record or leading the league in passing this year. He's up like 260 or something on Stafford

this week. So we'll see how that goes. I think he could definitely just come out and just gun it. So I don't know. Lean towards the Cowboys, we get like any full trying here. I just wonder if at what point, like would they consider benching them or resting them?

It seems like you might just be full go though. Yeah, at least probably the first half. right um so see uh jets and bills bills um need the game as well can't win the division but you know seating can be impacted here um so we'll we'll we'll see unless they you know we get news and they're just like hey we're take whatever we get we're going to shut down like i can see them like not playing josh or playing josh very little um again he looked a little better than i thought with the foot yesterday, but they obviously need, you know, any playoff hopes for them advancing is tied to Josh Hellen being 100%. So I would not be surprised if we see some MVP Mitch in this game.

I'm not sure, again, that matters against what we saw with the Jets yesterday. Yeah, I mean, which I was still can't believe that I'm going to be one game away from Jets having worst record. And the Raiders are just so, so bad, like just pathetic performance from them yesterday. Do you remember people in preseason wanted to make the case for the Raiders

as a legit like back in playoff team or people who were betting the, I just I don't think

you and I were there but I'm like what are we missing? Like why are they're smart people? Like what? I don't know. I just didn't see. There's a lot of like

I think Gino love in projecting that forward but yeah he's he regressed. Some ball knowers like Gino a lot you know love Gino and he's he has not played well

O'Line's still a mess That's what happens when you take a running back six overall Instead of drafting an offensive lineman Yeah Yeah I mean you trade Jacoby Myers Like it's just tough Brock Bowers injured the whole like basically Most of the year

So Crosby was injured playing through an injury It seems like most of the year to some extent So Good nice jumper though did you see his jumper Yeah that was pretty that was pretty nice In that sick court too by the way Yeah It goes to show you that like

it doesn't matter what these guys are doing professional athletes are such better athletes than they're just insane. Everyone. They're so good. Yeah, it's nuts. All right, Chargers, Broncos, we touched on a little bit. This is definitely telling us that, you know,

the Broncos need the game to get the number one seed. Otherwise, they're opening up to the Patriots. Chargers kind of locked in, you know, seating-wise. So it would make sense that the Chargers shut it down, which stinks for the Patriots. again, they need it. That's reflected in the line here. Cardinals Rams.

Again, we saw it last year where McVeigh's going to shut his guys down. This could very well be a backup scheme. The Rams did it last year. They gave up seating to go on the road, like to go on the road

and just to be healthy. So like I very well think there's, I don't think we see full Stafford here you probably don't see much puka we're not going to see devante adams come back again maybe a little blake quorum and you know then we got a lot of ronnie rivers like it's your guile uh mumford's going to be in here mumford and suns is going to be playing canada mumpfield yeah we're going to play absolutely goat it's going to be lined in like 609 and a half with jimmy g at quarterback that's the thing so we're going to have jim ummfields winning ham

this shouldn't be nine and a half i don't think i think this is a good like speculative bet here at like I don't know I mean not yeah plus nine and a half I mean it should be it should not be nine and a half if you get all the backups in there's no way they're going to be nine point favorites maybe

three and a half maybe four I don't know they're still definitely a better team but like if they're starting all their backups like this is I'd be stunned if we see many ram starters in this game we have why are they nine and a half you think it's just a mistake I think it's like a good look headline to bet

I'm gonna better it's a good look headline about I mean part of it's a good look headline to bet I mean partially because the Cardinals just suck. Yeah, I mean, they were pathetic, too, by the way. Them and the Raiders might have been my two biggest hate watches of the week. It was a really tough watch. They were not even like trying to throw sometimes. They were just run the ball.

Second and 10, run the ball for two yards, throw the ball, take a sack. Like, it was embarrassing. Like, it felt like they had a lot more push earlier in the season. Yeah. But you know what? I'm going back to that team because that was. was so exciting you know i'm i'm going to go back to them and uh plus 10 i think makes sense or nine and a half yeah yeah that's interesting all right commanders and eagles uh again eagles you know

playing at the same time as the bears eagles do have a chance to improve to the two seed uh if the bears lose and the commander still obviously playing up the string you know don't really have a lean on that game but i would i would lean philly and we're seeing that kind of playing out at Pinnacle, taking some Eagles money today, whereas some other shops are still at eight. So that's interesting to see. Raiders, Chiefs, I don't know what to make anything of. Any thoughts on Commander's Eagles or Chiefs Raiders?

No, probably just no bets. Like, you know, I'm not even going to watch the games, I would assume. Yeah, again, this is just get the BN fantasy alerts. Like, there's going to be some stuff that can come out breaking news-wise that can really impact these lines. And we've seen this every year. We see some massive, massive week 18 line movement. Props will be really slow to release.

I'd imagine you're going to get some stuff on the games that we know that matter. We're going to get some San Francisco, Seattle stuff. We're going to get Baltimore, Pittsburgh stuff. You will get Tampa Bay, Carolina stuff. The rest of it, I think, will be very slow to release. They're going to make sure that they don't back themselves in any corners around playing time or anything that they don't know about. So, yeah, be careful there.

All right, let's jump to some future stuff. Anything. I think you should have a great M&VP. Maybe I'm crazy. I think you should have a dream A MVP. Like, I love it. I don't, I don't get it. Give me the five or six seed.

He's like a play next week. Yeah, and like the Patriots are going to have the best record. There's going to be like, when do they vote on it? It's like right after week 18, right? Someone like that. I just think that there's going to be a little bit of time in the next week and half to stew on things, right? So, like, they're going to be like, oh, man, Drake May, team was 4 and 13.

Like, they were fourth pick last year. And now they're the number one seed in the AFC. Or, yeah, I mean, I think they're probably, or what is it? Broncos could still be, I guess, technically. Broncos are the favorite. Yeah, it'll be one or two more than likely. But, yeah, like, yeah, they're top two seed. Like, he just lit up the jets, which I'm shocked to not move the odds at all.

It's a pretty strong historic trend of one or two seed MVP. Interesting. yeah i just i just don't know like i feel like it's it seems like it should be about even right now and and stafford minus 250 seems really rich here's the problem though is right now and part of why i think it's held there's been maybe some resistance is we have an island game stafford situation tonight yeah right so draig may could be four to one tomorrow and then it's way more interesting to me but you know you could have the voter that locks in after tonight it's like i've seen enough Stafford's the guy

I'm getting to Stafford because again we might not see Stafford next week another thing that works in Drake May's favorite his side here is that Drake May plays at least a half probably at least three quarters next week, possibly the whole game against Miami's secondary

yeah I'm with you I don't think now is the right time to get in I think we're going to get a better price but I think it's a good bet yeah I think there's still just like enough enough time here I mean like the problem is

I guess Stafford could technically be leading the league in passing yards probably as well potentially as well whereas like but Drake May I mean hasn't he thrown maybe I don't maybe it's not more touchdowns I mean 30 because Stafford's got

Stafford's I think it's like 40 to 30 touchdown wise because Stafford's got all those one yard Devante touchdowns yeah 40 and 5 versus 30 and 8 4100 yards versus well 4200 yards secondly so i mean Drake man i mean because Drake man lit up let him up last week so like

the stats are definitely in favor of Stafford unfortunately i think yeah um same exact uh passer rating 112 yeah might just be also i worry about like the kind of lifetime achievement you know kind of like this could this could be the last season if he wants to i mean honestly it would not surprise me if you just retires at any point um but we thought that could happen last last off this past off season yeah so i don't know it's tough i still think that yeah like after this game could be worth a a bite here at drake may maybe you get a three to one i don't know that could be possible i think yeah i think it's very possible yeah so worth i also agree you know there's some things here we're not done there especially if stafford in particular is kind of like meh

tonight and that could be that could be interesting um defensive player the year we know Miles Garrett I wanted to get that sack Yesterday so you can You know the week 17 bros or 17 game bros With you know Stuff in their tailpipe but no Offensive rookie of the year continues to get a little bit tighter

It's kind of essentially turned into a two-man race Was kind of the perfect setup last week for Tyler Shuck with the Titans Teddy Millen not 100% And got Seattle that got significantly shorter It's definitely been moving a little bit It's definitely and now feels like a two-man race

And we have Carolina Island spot big game Tech could go ahead and grab a hold of this With a pretty big Saturday afternoon spots But if he is just kind of average You know Catches four balls for 50 yards or something like that This is very much out there for Tyler Shrek

I mean he's kind of been average for a while though right i mean it's like what has he when was the last time the ted did anything big he did i mean a good like what four for 60 in touchdown last week something like that yeah he did last week yeah six for 70 in touchdown i mean that's a good game but that's it's not like nuclear i mean it's two for 35 one one for 43 one two for 25 one then his big game then one for five that was like his last five games prior to his like before his biggest games are the biggest game of the year so i mean he's been good don't get me wrong i think he's been good he's should be used even more to be honest but i don't know like i mean

what are the saints one now like five the last six you know that four of the last six yeah yeah they've been they've been fun tiger again like i don't know what was yesterday like they're like four incompletions i know it was tennessee so like caveat that it was the titans without a doubt but like it was dialed over 300 yards getting it done looks competent good offensive play caller again tough because he obviously in a Spencer Rattler for half the season so it's kind of a weird situation but we see this and you don't have to play a full season to win an award

you know we have we have precedent for that for sure so I mean this is there also like they should have just gone with Tyler Shugg earlier I don't know why like you really need the couple games on the bench here this division is wide open like yeah what were they doing yeah it's rough but again no one else really went out and grabbed it it's we kind of talked about in the preseason like it's going to be hard for cam war to not win the award because he's going to play from day one like quarterback playing every week um but he found a way to not get a ton he's played pretty well though now he's been fine yeah yeah i'm not not down on him

i think there's some potential there for sure but yeah Tyler shook i think is interesting and uh you know comes down to i think some good week 18 especially for tetami millen starts to slate off and a big island spawn on saturday he's got to go out and and you can win that award. So, defensive rookie of the year. I got a lot of feelings here. I've shared a lot of them.

But my bags are packed either way. I'm going to be good. I definitely think it's a two-man race. I don't think. I think Game of Warre is awesome. I don't think he's done enough. But we'll see. I mean,

Amo Wari has a chance, too. He's going to get an island game and could be, you know, a key cog in Seattle, being the number one seed. the NFC. I think Pierce has the spot tonight in a prime time game

against Matthew Stafford. If he goes out, he's got eight and a half sacks. If he can get himself to 10 in the next couple weeks, that's pretty interesting. Voters love sacks. Historically, this has been a first round edge award

over the last 15, 20 years. Not a lot of precedent for offball linebackers, especially second round off ball linebackers. But Carson-Swessinger has been the every down play caller has played like 97 and a half percent of the snaps for his team the

season in the middle of that defense and they've been the only reason that team is how to pulse all year is because that defense um swashinger has been a huge piece of it so i think he's without a doubt the defensive play of the year i think pierce and even more slightly have a path so do you have any thoughts here not much to add i think he did a good job summing it up um shout out to you for getting uh early schwest numbers uh for the listeners of the show and subscribers and everyone uh it was like 50 to 1 right 50 or 60 yeah that's pretty hot it'll be a nice little christmas bonus there uh in a week hopefully yeah yeah the pierce numbers uh i got 19 i got a little 25 on pierce and the bigger play that i have is at 19 so it'll be okay either way

emin warry's the only one that like i just went a little bit i got like a 550 on even worry to yeah you know to have a win in the in the market um but i i i want swessinger and because i think suessiger should be the one um but you know those are bells we've been ringing since the draft that swesinger and pierce were we're great plays in the market so um let's see what else we got here come back we never really discussed because i don't know what to do with it now the market's kind of decided for us that it should be cmc he should win something um coach is really interesting people have a lot of opinions on on coach see here fandals got this um some better variable numbers here than like draft kings for instance who's a minus number on rabble shanahan at plus

150 the one that i think is interesting is mike mcdonald at six to one because we have shanahan versus mc for number one seed in the nfc and i think if the if the seattle wins shanahan dead right he's not winning that award um so why is that why is their discrepancy that's big in the market i don't know it's a good question honestly um and it's like now that i'm seeing this number it kind of seems like they might just give stafford MVP and then vrable coach of the year um like if if say if may doesn't win MVP like they're going to give the Patriots something probably so but that could make sense of McDonald probably the best value of the board right like if if the Seahawks win then like he's probably squarely

in contention here yeah I think variable wins the award I've talked about this in Discord but I think if you're looking to play you know CLV game like without a doubt there's a scenario where the you know the McDonald number is significantly shorter you know in in a week right and then you're feeling pretty decent about that comparatively. So if you're looking to you have nothing in this market currently and you're looking to get in, I think McDonald is the way to do it because you very much could see him, basically a coin flip maybe a little shorter or maybe a little longer than Vrable say this time next week.

Yeah, that's a good call. I like that. 7-1, not bad. I mean, Liam Cohen and Ben Johnson are like Jit candidates in any other year. based off of the nature of the award that's also why i think variable matters a lot a lot it's like the betting who's betting on this it's so old school legacy media for the most part right they're not thinking that like the patriots and seattle had very comparable win totals coming into the season right in the market the reality is that seattle was 10 and 7 last year the patriots were 4 and 13 so even

though they both came in with like eight and a half nine win totals in the preseason the exceeding expectations piece, which we've learned through the years, becomes a really key element in this award. And, yeah, the expectations for the Patriots were that they were going to be playoff adjacent. They were 4 and 13. It's an old school legacy media guy. Right. And now they're maybe 13 and 4.

Right. So it matters. It just is the reality of how this works. It was so funny. I was with some buddies last night who don't bet, but like watch football. And the pre year, one of the. them had bet who's a big paths fan that one of my other friends that they were going to the Patriots were going to win 10 plus games my friend gave him even money on it and they accepted it

which is terrible bet obviously they were like eight and a half win total or something maybe nine and half but like you get plus money so like just they did no concept of that and so obviously the pads are well above 10 wins so they were you know both sitting there and they're like I'll give you double or nothing. If the Niners win tonight, you know, it'll do nothing. And then, you know, if the Bears win, it'll be double. And so they're like waiting until game time. He's like, all right, I'll do it. The first play, throws a pick six. Like first play, it was so good. I was just like, man, this is just like no concept of betting. Like, there's so many other sharper ways to do this or like different ways to, you know, skin the cat. And it's not it. It gave me a good, like,

I don't know, flash of reality of what most bad people like, how do you. people bet it's fascinating but yeah the Pat's winning this many games is crazy that's just what reminded me I was like this is this is nuts yeah and look you can't argue the schedule I'm not going to argue as a Patriots fan

the schedule has not been historically easy but like they've whooped teams right like the Broncos beat the Jets 13 to 11 or something like that they needed late fourth quarter heroics to beat the giants at home by one point right so like the team that's also the number one scene in the afc and like barely beat chris lecoona whatever on on christmas it's

a disaster right it's not a team that like i don't know what the patriots are getting beat down for uh the schedule which is again something you can't argue there's some bad football teams At least they've walked some of these teams by margin when they got them. So maybe they do that again to Miami here in Week 18. Offensive player of the year, is Puka Live at all or CMC considering you know, Pooka's got a game tonight still? And like has like, I don't know, what's his prop lines? Like 100.

100. It's crazy. Yeah, 100. It's nuts. I mean, I think he missed some times. that's probably the problem like you did but they have like mirrors i've seen like think like phandal or someone social put out a graphic it's like they have almost the same exact stats puka and jsn is this succeeding expectations again like we thought jsm was good where you think he was

puka probably yeah i would say so um to be honest like i mean it's i guess like puga could have more yards than him and i guess if that happens like people might just like look at the cells in the mirror and be like well wait a second well i mean so jay since it's 1709, Pooka's at 1592. Obviously, because yesterday, yeah. Yeah, right. So, but then Puka, easily at 100 yards is here. He's two touchdowns behind.

So, yeah, I mean, it's kind of like, I guess I would probably rather just bet like Puka, 125 and two touchdowns. It's a good point. Because then you're, I would assume you'll get, I would guess you'd probably get better than 250 on that. A little bit better, maybe like three to one. Not a ton better. We can do it right now.

Can you want to add it up on the screen? Let's see. Yeah, it's crazy. It's crazy that you might not get better than three to one on 100 plus and two scores. Yeah, because like that's, I mean, and the other thing, too, is like, that's just for him to, like, even be, like, in contention. Like, that's not even, like, for sure winning the award. That's just, like, to square the, you know, square the stats up. He technically has played in fewer games so that maybe that gives them, like, a slight edge at that point, too.

But, yeah. Let's try over. just the regular over and then yeah two touchdowns is going to be like plus one oh plus four okay so you get better than that okay so you get four to one i mean that's that's a better bad in my mind than i totally agree yeah that's no it's a good call definitely a better way to go about it yeah yeah it's interesting this is it goes back to like the one thing i wanted to touch on is just like it seemed forever that like there was how can you go into this market because Jonathan Taylor was such an insane value

and then here we are it's like he's like 150 to 1 because the floor fell out in Hindi it's not so that happened yeah this is what's going on Connor that's new to me right I'm old enough to remember you know the 2001 Patriots who came out as a team it was the first team to do that in the Super Bowl

typically in that same Super Bowl the Rams got announced you know, here's the offense, right? He's the greatest show on turf. There's Kurt Warner, is Tori holds, who's Isaac Brews, Marshall Fogg. Here's the whole clan.

And then it's the Patriots coming out as a team. American flag in hands. It's 2002, January 2002, right? We're still fresh off of September 11th. Hicking the Patriots as a team. They were likable, right?

Tom Brady was back up. It was a cool story. Slowly over time, you don't go away for 20 years. Everyone hates you. And it didn't take long. for the heel turn, right? Everyone hated him for a while.

But like, people kind of like Drake May and Mike Vrable. Like, this Patriots being a little bit likable to the general public is something I'm not used to here. I don't know what to do with it. I mean, people are going to eventually hate them anyways, but I do think there's some differences here. Belichick is not a super likable guy, just not, I would consider him very affable by any means.

And Brady is just kind of like a dick and a dweep, like at the same time. So, like, he's like... First of all, watch your mouth. like he's just like super stern and like a very to the point which makes him great makes him the best or one of the best of all time depending on where your opinion lies um but like also kind of just like i don't know turned into like a seemingly pretty unlikable guy um based on his on field behavior and then obviously kind of had some you know scandals along the way there and i think that kind of whole thing there in the patriot way just like and them winning everything

like everyone hates the chiefs now too just because they want so much you know I think that comes with the thing, but they were especially unlikable, I think, after 20 years and all the random shit that happened, in my opinion. That's the difference in my opinion. Yeah. No, I agree. I don't disagree. And I know, someone who, you know, loves Tom blindly.

You know, we've joked about it like the cloning and the dog thing. We are definitely in a phase that's been going on for a little while of Tom. I think we're getting a little bit more insight to it through his socials. and stuff. Yeah. He's just, he's so far removed from being the, just everyday guy that made him really appealing.

Um, he just seems just, you know, he's just stupid rich and stupid famous. And like, there's just the cost of that. Like you're, you lose the every guy vibe.

Maybe Drake Mae gets there. But I mean, like, you know, I was playing crapsnucks to Drake May last year. Like, you know, that's never,

never even played crapsnucks to Tom Brady. You know, like that's, um, He's just like, seems like a very normal dude, not super, like, outspoken or crazy. He seems pretty humble, but, like, we'll find out the next couple of years, you know, if they keep winning and, like, you know, he'll be rocking chains and, like, you know, crazy shit coming in the future. Who knows? That's all possible.

It's true. Maybe it's a ponytail phase like Tom did in one year. Jim brought up another point here. They win 49ers lost four to the five seats. I think that's true, but I think that your point was that they don't. they in the past they hadn't cared about that right correct this precedent last year specifically they they punted on week 18 giving up seeding for rest to be healthy this one feels a little more egregious though because the four seed is going to be an nfc south team correct which is

a nice path like that i'm not saying it's a free win but uh much better you get that though right they're just six or seven right because the loser of c of uh unless there's a tie break right because they're two yeah well they they are they're 11 and 4 right they'll be 12 and 4 right these two like oh no okay so i don't know what the rams tie right here so let's play it up they're the niners time and you know that's what jim's talking about too right there's they can't catch seattle but so rams here and let's see here we'll do um whatever this doesn't oh so this will be Seattle right yeah um they meet the playoffs so we need rams that messes with to tell us what the seeding

is okay will it will it do that yeah get the five seed all right rams get the five seed if they win win both yeah they win both okay so what if they lose the next week if they punt this one they're the six seed right and green bay x green bay would stay seven right so they go between five and the six five and six then they'd have to play it's either the eagles or the bucks right wouldn't that be the case it'd be bears backers eagles correct nineers or bucks rams so maybe they do kind of try i don't know maybe they give them like a half yeah i'll be interested to see if if we get anything from mcvay but i you know we again it did happen it did happen last season

so i if i remember correctly last season it was like i mean somewhat less meaningful maybe not i don't remember sir it was let's see here let's see here 2024 NFL playoff bracket of course ESPN just the worst takes hours to love um i think it was like against they would have played like the texans or someone else if i remember correctly um well the week 18 game would have been a divisional game yeah i wasn't sorry not the texans um Well, they were the four seed last year, so they were technically the four seed. But then they could have been the, no, I think they might have just been locked in the four seed.

That might have been why. Because no other NFC West team made the playoffs. Let me see. I don't know. Maybe the 10-point spread makes sense. I mean, it's not listed on a lot of books. So it makes me think that there's a little more volatility here, to your point. Like, they're locked in the playoffs either way.

I think, kind of think they're going to, like, half try, but 10 points is still a lot. It's a lot. Let's see if we can pull up anything. Yeah, so the week 18, they already clinched the playoff berth because they beat the Giants, and they hosted Seattle. They were locked into either the six or seven. and the head coach Shami Vey chose the rest of the starters

including Stafford so they went from the 6th to the 7 so. Oh, okay, yeah. And then that forced the Packers to play the Eagles and then they played Detroit. So yeah, they could have avoided Detroit last year with the time, you know, it was very much a buzzsaw, right?

So they went and decided to take that game and punted on it. So interesting. Yeah, I don't know. I guess it's something to stay tuned on and then move quickly on probably if they're going to rest starters. Yeah. All right, sweet.

I think that kind of sums it up. Do you have any money and a football thoughts you want to get to before we wrap? Yeah, I guess real quick. Played some Kyle Pitt stuff, some unders there. I think you could play some like alt-overs on like passing stuff for the. the Rams I don't have much faith in the Falcons here to be honest

Bijan receiving stuff seems pretty good but the number's already 43 so you're not really getting much value here and then I think you played quorum right? I played quorum surprised still hanging out to be honest I think this is very bedable 44 and a half

just been really good and my land has been able to begin up some explosives especially on man gap runs, which we see a lot of from quorum. So I think this is a really good look. And I will say that we don't get them on Fandall. I think seven and a half tackles and assists is too many.

Caden Ellis. So I like the under on Caden Ellis tackles and assist. I think it's like plus 110. So plus money on that. Yeah, that think it's a decent look. Nice. Good about that as well. Cool, yeah.

I don't think I had too much else here, to be honest. I'm not doubling down on my guy, Mumpfield. They corrected his number by 10 yards, which is a ton for a guy who's only going to see, but I were three to six targets, basically. I would assume in this game. I saw, like, I think, eight last week, but it's because they threw the ball a bunch.

So, yeah. Yeah, don't anticipate that happening again. Yeah, I'll probably look for some live Bijon receiving stuff, right? to think maybe you get the ramp out to a little bit of a lead and maybe Bijan doesn't kind of like what happened last week he just didn't get any receiving early and then they were in a trailing game script and you know you drop 10 yards in the live market so and then the game script is already determined that you know that's going to start to be a piece that works in so I think there's also a little concern with Drake London being back last week and is that going to impact the ceiling

of Bijan and like we saw he just do it on one catch because he's yeah he's so damn good so all right sweet appreciate everyone hanging out with us as always uh again i know a little different format today definitely a better watch on youtube 4 4 live on youtube uh move line where we listen to podcast we'll be back on friday the prop drop but slop um should be a wild one you get some interesting names in a week 18 uh hopefully we get in matured markets enough that we can bet but uh come join us for the prop show 3 pm eastern on friday so for connor i'm ryan see you all next time thanks everybody You know what I'm going to be.