Move The Line - Move The Line - Week 18 Betting Recap & Wild Card Early Predictions!

Episode Date: January 5, 2026

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Hello and welcome to move the line. Presented by Sharpstack, I'm Ryan Nune. Playoff time. Calling around. What's going on, my friend? Yeah, not much. A very strange week 18, as expected, I would say. Like, you know, a lot of random games and random guys scoring from random games.

Gunner, Olshevsky or Zewski, I don't know how exactly that's it. Yeah, I'll get it first time. Yeah, O'Shefsky, what, 108 yards? heard something like that crushed it i mean there's just like so many random guys that pop out of nowhere in week 18 so it was it was wild it was like a worst week 18 than normal too for some reason especially felt like that early slate was just kind of trash and weird i don't know just a weird week 18 with like no one in the afc came in with their like playoff seating locked in but there was just very little drama outside of maybe some of the island games the sunday night was

fantastic. Look like we're in for a standard, typical Steelers Raven snooze fest. And then we got just absolutely electric football to finish, which is, which is fantastic for our Super Bowl pick to be left on the sideline. Just as someone with a team in the dance in the AFC, I didn't want, I just didn't want the Steelers in. I just didn't want the Ravens just in case because they are, you know, more terrifying. Steelers aren't necessarily a team than I'm necessarily terrified and they did beat my Patriots this season to be fair it's not a not a team that i would be looking to avoid at this point so yeah it's kind of a wild year with no chiefs no ravens especially yeah it's uh it is i mean it is interesting i don't do you want to talk about

anything else from last week and then go into the wild card or just like go straight into wild i don't care too much about um i don't think so either week 18 games yeah i mean we've we got as of now six coaches to be um you know multiple firings we get some firings today so right now we have six openings seems like the harbos situation in baltimore is a little tenuous as well you don't know what's going to happen there um but any takeaways from rie morris or kevin stefansky or any uh you know i guess we'll have plenty of time for offseason stuff but any thoughts you have there yeah p carroll one and done too i think there's rumors of brady bringing in flores and dable uh i mean that pair

with Fernando Mendoza, Brock Bowers, Eschenchenti. If you signed some more offensive linemen, I mean, that's like a legitimate. So that's a legit team right there. Flores has always made the most out of very little just like schematically. And so that would be obviously a massive bumper defense. And offensively, I'm still a believer that Brian Dable can, has done, can do a lot with little as proven by the Giants playoff run or like win with Daniel Jones and like, you know, a bunch of nobody's, you know, catching passes from them and a bad offensive line.

So, yeah, I think that that would be a dream come true for Raiders fans and the Raiders in general. Yeah, New England's eyes with both Flores and Dave also makes, it makes a ton of sense. So that'll be a fascinating one. That was like a, it was interesting that the Giants went out in one because I was like, you got me thinking too. We're talking about that suck fest in the desert. It's like, who can outtake who here?

It turns out. The Chiefs could, but it didn't even matter. The Raiders were still locked into their number one spot because I'm like, man, what an all-time Raiders gaff. This would be similar to, you know, the Patriots got lucky. But, you know, having sitting there in Week 18 when nothing matters and you just have this old school coach want to go out and win the game, I could just, you know, not necessarily set your franchise back, but man, you just want the equity in the number one pick.

It didn't matter what you decide to do with. You just want it. And figured out from there. Did, uh, did Genti finish with like, what, 20? 38 carries or something like that. Did he really? It was like the most ridiculous thing. Well, first off, we got kind of hosed because like most sports books didn't post a lot of

the spots that I really wanted, really wanted gentey stuff, like more wildly available, really wanted like some Keenan Allen stuff and just didn't get anything. Like honestly, with that I thought we would get towards the end. Yeah, he had finished with 26 carries and 87 yards only. I don't even know that's possible. It's tough to do. Managed to do that. pretty much all season.

Again, I don't think either either is thinking he's a bad football player, but the situation environment were pretty bad, not right for fantasy outputs for much of the year. So yeah, I mean, we'll have time all offseason sooner than later. It's coming up on us to talk about draft stuff and coaching changes and, you know,

free agency. I've already looked at these free agent lists and, you know, fascinating on the defensive side to think who's going where, what can happen here. I mean, real quick, too, since we have a question here, I mean, we can answer this, I think, pretty quickly. Can the Bengals please fix their O-line and defense and want to buy in, but can't until they prove they will bring in O-line help? My simple answer is no, but I don't know. Do you have more optimism than I do?

No, you know, they don't think the O-line was a complete disaster. I think like MIMS who they drafted is developed a little bit. You know, they have had some injuries. defense at least what I like this year is that they did give a bunch of young guys a chance so at least they have internal evils on the guys if they decide that they want to bring some guys back I think going like young across the board at a bunch of these positions were not a great idea like you know you like Logan Wilson was bad I mean even Dallas at the end of the year benched Logan Wilson that's like it annoyed me every time

some sort of like graphic would come up or we'd get Dallas and Prime time and be like oh look at all the moves they made and it's like Logan Wilson's been playing 30% of the snaps since they acquired him and he's been awful like so it wasn't it wasn't even a real good name value move but they you know just they were young uh in no edge rush right like tra Hendrickson was kind of a one trick pony there for them they didn't have um so they really need to address edge they need to learn how to stop the run so I would I think defensive line this is important as offensive line for them obviously you have so much of your resources allocated to quarterback receiver receiver

that you've got to figure it out elsewhere. But it was most of like Burrow was weird. I don't know if it's just like presser vibes. Everything. Yeah, everything was just a little bit, a little bit weird. What were your thoughts on their take of the Miles Garrett celebration? This was weird to me. Oh, they like stopped the game.

I think it's like kind of standard when someone breaks a record. Is that like kind of a cool record? a big deal like in fact that both Zach Taylor like Zach Taylor went to the presser and like talked about it and then Jamar Chase was asked about it and was very much like stop the game for me when I get 10 receptions in a game

like what do you I mean if he breaks a record I would expect like them to stop the game as well like I don't know like at least for like a minute or so like and also I kind of think Zach Taylor's just a loser I don't know like I don't like his energy at all I think he's a loser you didn't used to get coffee from Sean McVeigh

so it's your job yeah I don't know I'm just not a really a fan of the way most of the things are run there I don't think no still yeah I'm making a little bit off of you know super bowl appearance which you know I guess deservedly so but it seems like anyone that I've seen that's an actual Bengals fan is very much wanting a restart there regime-wise

so it looks like they're not getting it but hopefully they can they just also seem to find ways to just lose key players cluster injuries on both sides or every every single year so I'm sure do some offseason stuff maybe they make a splash or two and we get stuck right back into the upside potential of burrow and chase because it is it is pretty pretty unique you know one to do well but yeah it's we'll see we'll see I'll remind folks take advantage of Sharpstack if you've not done the free seven-day trial. I don't know what you're waiting for at this point. Obviously limited NFL stuff, but not no NFL stuff. And the tool is really, I think, particularly great for the daily sports like NBA, NHL, where there's just a significantly larger swath of bets to choose from. I think there's more opportunities to find EV and mistakes that books can make.

And check it out. If you have any questions, let us know. But right now, free seven-day trial, 444.com slash plans. If you want to jump into any of our postseason stuff, you know, everything pretty much is massive discounted right now on the site if you head to the plans page as well. So take advantage of the seven-day free trial of Sharpstack and then jump into some of the stuff.

I think we're start to maybe mix in. I don't know if we're doing any FFPC playoff content. We typically do. We'll definitely do some tweets about it. I usually tweet about it. Maybe we have done some like live streams, but I don't know. I think we'll probably just tweet about it. Yeah.

You write an article. different platforms you're doing different stuff um cover that we'll definitely cover that in discord and stuff for subscribers to jump in there so we'll be back on friday for props with slop at 3 p.m. eastern move the line wherever you listen to podcasts 4 4 live on the youtube channel let's jump into our playoffs they actually have our little matchup forecaster here let me share our my screen here just to walk through some of us it's actually got some of our projections baked in there as well I'll share this for us. But we start with a rematch from, I think it was week 13.

We had a Rams Carolina game here. We had a pretty insane spread. We got out to 10.5 and a half in some spots. Let's see if a 10 and a half are there. I think that mostly, you know, some 10 and a half still on draft Kings. Mostly everyone else has moved to, Fandle's there too.

Sears looks like back and forth between 10 and a half and 10, 46, 46 and a half point total here. Pretty insane, Connor, to see a 10-point home dog in the playoffs. But here we are. Any thoughts here on Rams and Panthers who got in, obviously, in the most NFC Southway possible. Yeah, this is one of those that I think had like a wild result in the regular season, right? So the Panthers beat the Rams as pretty big dogs.

Now they are 10.5 point home dogs. they're one of those teams that we struggled with all year because the way that that game and the way they beat the Rams was they had two interceptions in the first quarter, basically. One of it was a pick six. And then they kind of were able to just like run the ball and be somewhat efficient doing so and like kind of control clock a little bit.

And so they did end up like scoring a lot of the offensive points too. It wasn't just defensive stuff. They held Pooka to like six for 72, which is holding Puka. you know, I think, you know, he also left, he also left a game with an injury in the middle of it. Yeah, well, there you go. That matters as well. Yeah. But yeah, it was like, it was one of those things that I think they showed some encouraging signs.

Like, if I had to bet it, I'm probably closing my eyes and taking the 10 and a half, which is crazy. But it is a ton of points for a team that seems to be pretty consistently feisty for just about no reason. just about no reason yeah they're really tough and get into some of our early projections here for the game too and we're not expecting much from from Bryce Young again

which it's again anytime we get that prop line at 200 it's like it's a little enticing the problem that I think the Panthers are going to run into here that they didn't as much the first time is they've had offensive line injuries that have been pretty impactful for them.

So I think the recipe to replicate the week 13 win obviously would be turnovers again. But obviously when you get them and you get short fields or even if you don't, you I think have to be able to run the football, keep the offense, Ram's offense on the sideline. And I worry about, again, is the combination of Bryce Young not being much of a threat

and the offensive line injuries that are going to impact Rico and Chuba's ceiling here. so it's so many points what i think i like i'm trying to get back to my roots a little bit you know i've been scuffling um team total here yeah i like this under uh under carolina team total here 18 we're going to get to like 17 and a half right this which is again we're going to be there based off of our early numbers i haven't seen actual books posted team totals yet but i think they probably will this afternoon. I would think under 17 and a half

or better would be a pretty good luck for the Panthers. Yeah, I mean, I don't mind it. Like, I don't know. So, like, I mean, they averaged, like last time they ran the ball 40 times for 164 yards. It's crazy.

Which is wild. 17 carries for Chuba, 18 carries for Rico Daudal. Like, none of that really came on one carry that along of 10 and 17. So, like, you know, it wasn't just like one 80-yard run a bunch of super inefficient stuff so i don't know i mean yeah i definitely get the offensive line

issues i'm not running to bet on the panthers by any means i i don't know i think they're just kind of the panthers just bet on my no bet list outside of bryce young unders and ted overs occasionally um for basically the last like three months yeah yeah there maybe robert hunt comes back um you're right guard but it looks like that's questionable but uh Yeah, left guard, center on IR. Yes, like the middle of the season, they're 29th in rushing EPA. Yeah, not good. Success rates, you know, bottom third of the league as well.

I think just they just have to be able to run the football, which would kind of drag the entire, I think, points for the game down. But like, you can also have a scenario where they do run a little bit and then aren't efficient. Also, we're getting Quentin Lakeback for the Rams, which is, I think, pretty underrated return for them with his ability in the slot with his ability at safety they kind of use him in a pretty important hybrid role i think they've tried to piece together a bunch of different guys to fill the role and it hasn't been great and now i think you get him back in the lineup piece a strong run defender he's a really important piece for them i mean

he's hurt and they signed him to an extension like last week so like they're excited to get him back and I think that's an underrated piece for the Rams too so kind of with you I'm not stoked to run and lay and on the road in the playoffs but it's Rams or nothing for me and I think my play is just going to be Carolina team total under kind of gross

oh you're muted can you hear me yeah and that switch your mic though okay hold on a second as a randomly disconnected all right perfect professional organization

here you know also a tech lord who has his own issues at times so no judgment here although you do have more random mic

issues your mic will just randomly switch up which seems to just happened you know just dropped out and hey what you do

um all right there is we're back um I was saying draft 15 and a half minus 125 on the team

right now so why is it minus 125 on the under yeah i don't i mean i don't know 18 and a half minus 135 it's not worth paying that extra juice no that's not worth it but yeah maybe we'll find better but yeah doesn't doesn't make sense i guess they're juicing it up on on us a little bit but yeah i'll search take a look at that it's it's kind of interesting i mean also the rams in their last meeting i think only ran yeah 51 plays Yeah, I remember, because I believe I bet, I believe I bet some, some Panthers tackles in that game. Yeah. And it didn't go particularly well.

Just, you know, playing in a wrong place. That hurts. So, I mean, I think I went Derek Brown or something. But, yeah, I think the Rams are probably the right side. And look, they're a wagon in a very, very wide open tournament, in a very wide open NFC. understand why there's some positive Rams sentiment. Obviously, get a lot of it done here on the road, but pretty soft landing spot here for week one.

All right, next, third time to charm. We get the Packers and Bears. Second time, all time that these teams have met in the playoffs, which is wild. We did have a, I believe, 2010 Cutler game, where Cutler was injured midgame, and that was kind of a disaster. But shop around, because I think we're seeing this fluctuate depending on the book.

Yeah, we're seeing some, you know, you go to Fandul, the Packers are favored. You go to a lot of other books, bears. So you're kind of hovering around zero, depending on where your lien is. But obviously, that's going to impact, you know, plus money on the money line, depending on what you're looking for. Total fluctuating as well looks like, you know, between 45 and a half and 47. So not insignificant there. I don't know what you want to make of

or if you make anything out of what happened yesterday in the Bears game. It's kind of a weird spot to kind of lay an egg, essentially, because it kind of did. But this has been kind of Bears all season, right? Like, they needed to win that game. They were trying to win that game.

It's a dome team in the elements with a beat-up secondary, and you didn't score until fourth quarter. I don't know. It's a complete toss away, or what are your thoughts here? And again, the Packers are obviously stumbling in as well. They've lost four straight.

If you want to count that against them, obviously what happened to week 18 doesn't matter. But, you know, we haven't had, you know, Jordan loves since the beginning of that first matchup or second matchup against the Bears on that Saturday night. Yeah, I kind of just thought it was more of the same for the Bears who like consistently for periods of time look like a bottom 10 team in the NFL, like just defense looks terrible. Offense can't do anything or Caleb's throwing the ball in the dirt, you know, like that. And then something just happens and they click for like a quarter and a half and they become like a top three team in the league. And their defense is like rock solid or forcing interceptions or getting sacks.

And Caleb is just like lights out. So super volatile team. I thought that they ended the game with enough kind of momentum that like they'll be fine. They're not going to be like, holy shit, we suck again. And then this spot here too, I think what's key here is that the bears have run the ball like really well against the Packers in both games that they've played. so far and i would expect that to continue here i mean they had the average a little over four and a half yards per carrying the first one i think 5.8 in the last one that was with them losing basically the entire game um they barely had the ball because i remember i had the de andre sweat

attempts uh bet in that game yeah we got there yeah but like they barely had the ball um but had some success when they did yep yeah now like at home i would assume it's going to be pretty cold this weekend i would guess i don't know i haven't looked at the weather that far and makes is there our matchup page of any weather stuff or no don't have the weather i don't think we got we got to make some calls here we got to get um not there yet you know get some some weather reports on here but yeah so a weather bug right here the room yeah exactly i would i would i thought we had one um okay it looks like sunday's gonna be pretty chilly i mean nothing crazy 30 degrees 15 mile per hour winds it's probably gonna feel like i don't know 20ish but i guess

22 um so yeah definitely cold and the the packers have just been i don't know not all that good they also just got beat up on the ground two weeks ago by the ravens like really bad obviously derrick henry's with different beasts but like i don't know i think the bears are just like a much like if they can run the ball they can compete with basically anyone i think at this point to be honest least offensively i agree i'm kind of surprised that we see some some pro i guess i just think the bear should be favored. I don't think we should be at three or anything, but I think there's like two at a half.

Yeah, I mean, I feel like that's appropriate. I feel like that feels right. So I like plus money bears money line to be honest. Like you said, I think they've seen enough of good rushing attacks, be able to really control and dictate what goes on with the Packers.

What's interesting is that like, Malik Willis was so good in that second game. It's part of why they didn't have the ball. Yep. And I'm not saying the Middle League Willis should be in for Jordan Love, but like it definitely changes the dynamic of that offense. But Jordan Love is a tremendous downfield passer. He's a really good quarterback against man.

He's really good when you don't pressure him and the Bears are not a good pressure team. So there's some situations here that set up really well schematically for Jordan Love and how they want to win. And it's not like I don't think the Packers can win that game, but I think the rushing point to your point is an interesting piece. piece here. Whereas I think if they decide to run the ball, they don't get on like, I just bad time of possession early in the first quarter. You're not chasing points and you're not having to get out of what you want to do. They can really do anything they want. I mean,

Micah Parsons and Devante Wyatt being out of the lineup for the Packers is massive. They are 31st in pressure without, according to PFF, 31st in pressure rate on the season without Parsons in the lineup. They are significantly worse against the run without Wyatt in the lineup. And I just don't think they're going to be able to pressure Caleb very much. And that's, you know, he's been amazing at creating outside of, of, uh, of the pocket when he's pressured. But like if it doesn't have to, it's a lot cleaner. And if they can run the ball and dictate things there, I think they should be able to do that. So, uh, nothing that really jumps out in terms of bets for me other than Bears money line total not super exciting to me. Um, any other

angles that you're looking to shoot here when this Chris and Watson stuff might be too low I got to dig in more to that but he just absolutely burn them if they're going to play any kind of similar man defense he brought up the points with Jordan Love like that was their kind of go-to guy and exploiting those a Christian Watson longest could make sense

I'm seeing his props early at already like only at 50 probably a little low to be honest considering he's probably right for a 30 yard catch one way or another you could also probably just play longest one or the other I think are both probably solid um but yeah then yeah probably parsing between minangai or swift or fanduel dropped uh they release this new thing it's like team yards

they started releasing this um it's like a new it's like a new little feature on there i haven't tried really the limits because i want to wait for the right spots i think this could be one of those spots is like a bears rushing team over um because caleb can scramble i think both Swift and Monongai could have great games. I don't know which one, but I think one of them is probably going to, you know, have a great day.

So we'll see what that ends up being because I think that could be pretty interesting. So I've seen that on some of the, I think like 365 has some of those markets, which is lovely, but having a little bit more liquidity would be nice. They always have it for the Super Bowl. And I usually take that kind of stuff

for like Super Bowl and have generally been pretty good with that. Like, I don't know, like passing yard or like total like rushing yards. or like team stuff because then you know you don't get screwed by some random second string coming in and ripping like a 30 yarder and then you know the regular starters just going back to eating it in the back field or you know getting hit the line of scrimmage every time so yeah yeah it looks like fandul minus 108's the best money line for the bears at this point so i'm going to bet it so yeah yeah i think they're going to win too all right um fascinating one here

Buffalo on the road against Jacksonville. I still don't know what to make a Jacksonville, but I think they're actually okay. We've just seen Trevor Lawrence be better. We've talked about this the last couple weeks, like good coaching matters. You still have the Bill's small road favorites here, pretty much one and a half or so across the board.

Be healthy total here, 51.5. We see that reflecting the team totals, both kind of just a little short of 27. on the other side of 25 kind of lingering in that middle range here as well. Look, I mean, the handicap here is not super complicated. I think that Jacksonville's the better, more well-rounded team. Buffalo will have the best player pretty much in every game that they play in the playoffs and how much does that matter when the rest of the team is definitely susceptible

in full of holes and has lots of questions. Yeah, I also don't think that Jacksonville is a very good. good matchup for them with the way the bills are kind of situated right now like the jaggs run defense has been really good basically all season and I think that the bills are at their best when they're able to lean on james james cook and then have josh allen you know be great and then work magic off of that if it's all on josh allen obviously they can win still win any game it's just a little bit less um i don't know solid and less consistent so like i don't know i i kind of lean jags money line here I don't love the Jags and scary.

Obviously, you're going up against Josh Allen, but I just genuinely think, too, like the Bill's defense and their total metrics here, I think, are a little bit inflated by playing the Jets and Dolphins twice. It may be a little bit better than they actually are. Now they've gone through a variety of injuries and healthy and injuries.

I don't know. Where would you have them now at this point? Because this Jags' offense just continues to, like, be awesome for, like, months now at this point. I think it's a pretty mediocre defense. Right. A lot of questions in terms of who's going to be healthy and playing in this game. I think Jackson can run the football on them.

Everyone's been able to run on them. I don't think there's talk about Ed Oliver, but I don't think he's, he looked like he was going to return, but now he's out with like, something in his knee after having a bicep surgery. DeKon Jones isn't 100%. They've been missing Jordan Poyer has been really important. Terrell Bernard and linebacker's been really bad. I think you've been playing injured all season

and actually got injured and missed a bunch of times, so I don't know what's happening there. Christian Benford's excellent, but I think they're weak at some of their other. Like we haven't had much from Taran Johnson this year's not been very good. Yeah. I just think there's other spots with like the depth of receiver that Jacksonville has that they can find ways to win opposite of Benford

and be able to run the football. So I'm kind of with you. Like I'm not in love with Jacksonville, but I think they should also probably be like a pickum or, I mean, I don't think the market would have ever got them favorite, which is with Allen, which makes sense. But I think Jacksonville's the side.

I mean, if you look at them since the buy, so they played Seattle and the Rams got into the buy, they lost both those games, weren't playing very well. After the buy, they have not scored fewer than 23 points in a single game. This is like a 10-game sample. They've just, and this is against good defense. They scored 29 against the Texans.

They scored 36 against the Colts when they were, you know, they're not necessarily good. 34 against the Broncos. Like, they played 35 against the Chargers. They played against good defenses and were good. And like the bills are far from that. And like things are just clicking on offense for Jacksonville. And so I really think, I mean, we're just getting basically a big Josh Allen tax here, which I don't necessarily think is wrong.

But like, the more that I would go through this game, the more that I break it down, I think the more I'm talking to myself into the Jags, like almost certainly being the right side here, barring just like Josh Allen taking over, which is possible, you know? I bet Jacksonville and Alan props. That's probably the move, honestly. Yeah.

Like there's, I mean, very few outcomes here where I think that like the bills are just like coasting and like Josh Allen doesn't have to do anything, in my opinion. Totally agree. Yeah. I think the Jags of the side. And, again, selfishly is a Patriots fan. I want Josh Allen out of the mix, too.

Get him out of there. It's actually funny. Like, I don't really, not super scared of the bills, which is terrifying to say, because they do have, again, they have Josh Allen, but that's the thing. We are paying, as you said, I think a Josh Allen tax. So 25 then might be light on the team's total for Jacksonville, but I also just think money line plus money is probably the right way to go. I think there's a little bit of an edge here, too, I think.

So we're looking at Josh Allen's past attempts mark. He's only 30 and a half. And then passing yards is only like 220. Like rushing attempts we're looking at for him. Seven and a half plus money. Yeah, seven and a half plus money. Like I think that a lot of his numbers, especially in the pro market, are going to be skewed down because there's so many games where they just like sit on the ball and like don't have to do shit. And so like, especially more than ever, if you're getting a Josh Allen,

online like 30 and a half attempts. I'll go through all the old games and game log and see what his attempts should be for me, but that first glance seems a little bit low. Yeah. It's a good call. Yeah, we've, I mean, those are cool tools in here, too, if you want to look at like, I think like the defensive knowledge seeker for people, you know, you can go in and look and just like, all, here's how the bills are ferret against all, you know, wide receivers

or whatever you want to do. Like you can do offensive. There's lots of different tools in here. Yeah, I think that's a good call. I think they are kind of a little bit viewed over the course of, you know, as median over the season because of how their game scripts have gotten. So I think you see that actually reflected here in our projections as well, right? Totally.

All right. Both on the Jags there too. This one's interesting. Niners are on the road in Philly. Philly had a chance to take the two seed, but could not get it done. Fascinated by what we saw on Saturday night with the Niners in an offense that looked like just, I'll say world beaters but like just hanging crooked numbers on everybody

and Seattle locked them up. Now again they'll probably get Ricky Pearsall back at least seem close enough. Same thing for Trent Williams at least seemed close enough that they were you know I'd say true-ish game time decisions so you would think that they were probably back

for this one I think really important pretty sizable you know on-off splits with Trent Williams and how San Francisco plays. Philadelphia is just, one of the weirdest teams of all time. I don't know what to make of them. I think that they're good.

I don't think that they're great, but they have a ton of talent. Fascinated by the fact that, like, they're defending Super Bowl champs. They had another great season and their fans hate them so much. Which just creates, like, a weird vibe here if this gets to, like,

seven nothing Niners in the first quarter, and then, like, the Eagles go three and out, and they're punting. Like, they're going to be booing. so loud. It's like, it's seven nothing in the first quarter. Like, it's just a weird dynamic here. Like, I don't think they like their coach.

They hate their offensive coordinator. It's just, there's such a weird, weird team. And you can tell me here in a month that they're playing with this in the Super Bowl for the title again, when that would not be surprised. Yeah, it's, it's tough. I think like on field, just like on field matchups, like I think the Eagles are the side here. But like, I mean, this Niners team with Trent Williams, remember they didn't have Trent Williams for the C.

Elks game. I think that mattered a little bit. They couldn't run the ball for shit. I mean, I was looking at a CMC under forever, and I didn't play it because I thought he might get like 25 carries. I was worried. And then the Trent Williams stuff came out, and I'm like, you know what, no, I should have just played it because they're going to go past, try and pass a little bit more anyways. Ended up not having volume, so it would have came in anyways. But I think in this spot here is like, if you get Trent back and like they're running the ball okay, the Eagles have been a good run defense. I think the Purdy could be in a really good spot here. Um, but it's, it's tough.

Like, I mean, this Niners defense is not, I don't think they're that good anymore at this point. And so like, if I think the Eagles are going to have success running the ball, they'll have some success passing the ball. I don't know. I haven't dug too deep. My initial lean, I know Hunter took, uh, Niners plus four or something like that. There's a four and a halfs out there. I'm a little bit torn because like I, I want to bet the Niners,

but I just don't know if they're all that good defensively. They're terrible defensively. It's really bad right now. But yeah, it's kind of just a stay away for me. I feel like the Niners team total feels like a little bit low. But I also think like you can make the case of the best unit in the game is the Eagles defense. You know, they get, they're fully healthy. So I think Jaylon Phillips is okay.

Like there's an ankle here in the last couple weeks. He wasn't 100%. But yeah, I just think that they can, their secondary is so good that they really can slow down what the Niners. are doing, especially if they don't have 100% Trent Williams back to be able to run the ball. Just an interesting game. One, I'm really excited to watch. As a football fan, I'll obviously have some prop action on it, but it's not a game side in total that I'm dying to get into, which probably means Hunter was probably right,

just taking the points. But yeah, nothing that jumps out to me game-wise that I'm tripping over myself to get. I mean, they put CMC at 60 yards only. That's one of his lower props of the year, to be honest. Yeah, it's really low. Yeah, 60 rushing yards. And they had Sequin up at 82. I mean, the Niners were just thoroughly dominated on the ground by the Seahawks.

Seahawks offensive line was awesome. Yeah, they were bullying. They were bullying. They got to the second level, so clean. And that's part of, it's easy to do when you don't have a defensive line. They have to worry about. And they were able to just toss guys to the side, gets the second level. It felt like any time, like Kenneth Walker,

Sharbony had the ball. By the time they got touched the first time, they were already four or five yards down the field. It was a clinic. Yeah, makes me nervous about, but Philly's been pretty poor running the ball. We know that they can, though.

We know that, you know, when they're clicking, the Hertz Barclay duo is insanely dynamic. So I like to see more Hertz running. Fewer Sequin shotgun carries and stuff. I don't know. Just get under center.

It was a little bit of play action. Yeah, stay away, interested to see because I think the Eagles could very much go on a run here and it would not surprise me. Yep, agree. Maybe surprise their fans. I don't know. All right, nightcap on Sunday.

Chargers head to New England. You were looking at a basically three and a half, I think across the board for Patriots, 45 and a half, 46 is the total. Looks like Fandall's total's cooked out a little bit. They're not alone. 46.5 moving. out there a little bit.

Yeah, the chargers are obviously, they can be terrifying. The fact that they're even here and have been as good as they've been all season long with the insane amount of injuries, key injuries, especially to their offensive line, is insane in the testament to the coaching staff

and to Justin Herbert, who's been awesome. They're like, the number's not going to be good. It's not a market that I don't think either of us really get into like super bowl futures in the summer but the charges were really interesting next year like i mean they're probably going to lose jesse minner and i think that's impactful but like i don't know i've been really impressed by uh this team now they get the patriots who uh getting healthy i think getting milton williams back is pretty important to have you know everyone back you know offensive wise you know uh you're receivers except obviously

Matt Collins, who's on IR, but I feel like they're kind of cooking with everyone they need to here. So early thoughts for you on Chargers Patriots. Yeah, I'm definitely going to play some Chargers rushing under. Maybe the team are rushing under, maybe the Hampton or the Dahl rushing under, something like that. I kind of like the Pats here, three and a half. They, you know, like the Chargers line is just kind of beat up. And like I think that the Pat's D-line, maybe they don't get a ton of pressure on Herbert. But, I mean, basically everyone's gotten pressure on him.

it seems like since their offensive line's gotten injured. And then, yeah, Milton matters a ton there in the middle for their run defense. So if you kind of force the charges to be one dimensional, I think it's just a big problem for them. Like it's, it takes a lot for Justin Herbert to do that. And I'm not sure that this is, I'm not sure that they're set up to do that. Now they've, they've kind of been in similar positions like this before where it's like, okay, well, they don't have much of a running game.

Like Herbert's kind of got to will them to the finish line. And he does do a pretty good job making games pretty close. So that would be my concern here about laying the three and a half. you need the little extra, the extra point or half point there. But I will say, so I was digging into the Patriots schedule a little bit. Obviously, played a super easy schedule. They faced one top 10 defense all year. But that game was against Cleveland, scored 30 offensive points, had 422 yards of total

offense, May completed 18 of 24 passes. J. Van Henderson had like a 75 yards and only 10 carries. So, like, they performed well against the only competition they've had. I would say the Chargers defense is certainly in the same, you know, range statistically as the Browns. So it's not like, you know, they're much better, much worse. I would say they're kind of in the same realm. So I don't know. I like, you know, I think that there's certainly, they played a lot of easy teams, but the only tough team they played they did well again.

So I don't think that the Patriots are going to be like all of a sudden shut out or anything. So that's kind of where I'm at with them. I agree. I mean, what's tough for New England is they've done. so well, Drake May has been so good at the deep ball this year. It's been such an important piece of what they do. And it's something that the chargers really limit. They've been tremendous at taking that away.

But I also think, like, this is to be a spot like prop-wise. I'm thinking about, like, Drake-May completions. Like, I think they have to settle for some more underneath stuff. I think that's where you can get Hunter Henry winning a little bit. You can get Diggs winning a little bit. I definitely think there's something to be said for Diggs in these, like, some of those best games this year have been island games and like at this point his career he seems to be that guy

like I think he just gives his shit when the eye on the lights are brightest um you know is that people are at home like watching him play ball he gets a little bit lost on the you know noon slate on Sunday when he's one of many but when he feels like I got the I got the attention of the world um I think he's got a little bit of a of showman in him I think it's a good spot for him underneath the matchup wise so maybe completions for for Drake may

what do you think uh so his props out what do you what would you put it at i'm not going to tell you what it is until you guess uh his uh draig may's no sorry digs receiving prop i can give you drakes too but oh i mean i imagine the digs is over four and a half receptions juiced to i don't know minus one 30 or so or 120 um and then his yards would be We got openers right now on Fandul and Rivers and Fliff and then MGM is the highest. Lowest in the market, 49 and a half receiving errands. That's great. That's a great.

That's a great. Yeah, so you nailed the receptions of four and a half minus 130 over. But yards only 49 and a half, Fandul, Rivers, Fliff. MGM's 55 and a half. I think that's, I would have guessed like 55, 57, probably in that range. 49 and a half seems pretty low, though. That's too low. um he's been really a thousand yard receiver i mean i didn't think that that was what the patriots

were getting from step diggs this year yeah um he's been he didn't play that much no they still they rotate him a ton and i think we see maybe a little bit less of that in uh in the playoffs um that's i think that's actually part of one of the biggest bull cases outside of the matchup matchup is that like anytime he's played a ton he just nukes um and i think we bet something now maybe two weeks ago or something like that it's like if he's going to play a lot he's just just awesome because, you know, it's Drake Mays balling. So I don't know. I think that those, that number seems, seems very low.

Although my, my year-end numbers for overs or sunders, once again, we're not kind to my overbeating, unfortunately. So it's tough. Yeah. Across the board, I've been bad. I need to pivot. I'm going to find some team turtles. You know, we're going to go back to the drawing board of the off season.

I felt like I had my best year handicapping. Like, I felt like quality of like the write-ups and analysis. was so strong results weren't good just being honest just wasn't good not good enough thankfully hunter won like i don't even know 30 units 40 units yeah jake was cooking this weekend or so 15 maybe i think i'm at like nine or so i pulled myself out of the shitter um some futures came in so i ended up being okay um nice i haven't i had the stones to open up the document for a couple weeks i just look today because i was checking our futures because i don't remember what i released and what i didn't because all my features just that's also my dummy thing is I didn't release them officially my future like accounts

did well yesterday and I'm like oh some features came home um but not how much stuff that I put out yeah did you not officially release the the Schwessinger stuff you just put in another channel right that extra action channel that we do for like correct um well maybe we can go through there and you know I'm sure there's some I'm sure there's some bangers in there we just like I just don't even remember what I put because yeah team total to make the playoffs stuff I had a bunch of like, you know, just normal futures, you know, that did pretty well. But that's all right. It could be a better week to week and big playoff guy, big playoff energy coming in.

You bet Schweissinger, Devens, Ruggy the Year on April 30th. Yeah, immediately after the draft. That is, that is quite, quite early. I love that. That's awesome. Yeah. Yeah, got that little early. Yeah, Rwandae's been awesome in the passing game for two.

months just weird definitely would think that'd be the travion role but has not been the case but um yeah the dick stuff is light may completion's probably something i might take a look at new england's been pretty bad at uh defending past catching running backs and tight ends this season so that would be a chargers angle if you liked it um the receivers are not of interest to me but um you know i think you probably find some decent unders matchup wise so yeah we'll see i obviously Maybe some Keenan unders, I don't know, like I mean If they're putting him out there just to get incentives

Like I feel like he's already kind of been like Rotating anyways like he's kind of like This is it, you know, this is the end of his career Yeah I don't know All right last one Monday night football Texans on the road Against the Steelers

Texans are three point favorites See I think we have some three and a halfs Yeah a little bit So shop that around threes are a little juicy three and a half's kind of normal pricing total 39 and a half across the board um look i don't know what to make of the texans i i continue to want them to be better they're just a really bad running football team they seem to just not be able to to run successfully the steelers allow you to do that though so that makes it a little bit easier because i think they've been you

know an above average slightly above average uh passing game offensively when they have everything going there's not a really good running team you know the steelers defense does not put up much of a fight at all but again you have to deal with the black voodoo magic that seems to surround this football team and i don't know um i don't know what to do with that at all because this is not i don't think a playoff team but here they are uh again that the juju came through again last night in a couple different ways and um i like the texans and i like the steeler's team total under 17 and a half. Yeah, I think Steelers team total 17 and a half is great.

That's a good look for sure. The Steelers have just had like big, largely big problems against some of the better defenses they've played. Six against Cleveland, 10 against the Chargers, 17 against the Seahawks. They did have a couple of good, like, reasonable outings against, you know, some of the better devens as they played with 23, 24, 25 against the Browns, Vikings Packers. Again, the Packers' defense at this point is probably not, nothing to write home about. and then the Browns like I didn't really look up exactly how many how those points were scored

you know that they're always due for a pick six or two um so I don't know it's like one of those things where I don't have very expectations for this offense now that being said if you go if rewind to this was it last year two years ago this uh like Browns Texans or whatever we had flaco in there and uh just comes in and throws for like you know like a bunch of times and the Texans light up the Browns there's always those weird games that happen that being said like i don't think that's like a likely outcome here i think these texan's defense is much improved over some of previous iterations even then so i mean i want to take probably just take a bunch of unders i don't know what the exact right angle is but i think

sealers team total is probably a good start yeah they get dk medcav back which is you know obviously a boost for them um yeah i don't know i just think that this texans defense is such a such a unit um rogers does not like getting sacked loves to get the ball out quickly. So obviously that's neutralizes it here. But I feel like that works for like quick, short passing game stuff again for Pittsburgh. Because I think they're going to struggle to slow them down. And the problem is, this is like the best tackling team.

And I mean, like Houston and Seattle would be like just the nerdiest Super Bowl that I would absolutely love. And it'd be like so boring for casual. It's going to be like 1310. but we're talking about like two insanely good defenses yeah the handicap would be just ridiculous like it'd be like just it would be awful like darnold would i mean they might even pass the ball because they don't want darnold to just like like darnold would cost them more points than he would actually score for them almost certainly it's probably true uh we probably get a lot of attempts with cj stroud because i think they'd have to abandon the run pretty quickly against

uh against uh seattle so yeah i mean uh yeah quick passing game stuff for rogers i have to think through how we would want to bet that uncorrelated like you know over attempts under yards can we do that yeah we're looking at 32 and a half times for rogers 33 and a half times for stroud seems a little high um i would i would guess that they run a ton of woody and joir jordan i think joir jordan might actually be like a part of their offense if he's healthy like for like going forward to be honest

I think he might be like kind of a 1B. Yeah. He's been better than Woody. We talked about last week. He's been better than him. Yeah. Just such a bad blocking offensive line. It's really tough.

Nico really good against, I mean, he's a really good receiver, really good against man. You're going to get a handful of man looks from Pittsburgh for sure. So if you could take advantage of those, that could be interesting. Yeah,

it's Pittsburgh defenses below average as well. So, yeah, I like the Texans here. and I like under on the team total for for Pittsburgh so Nico's at a 70 and a half yards maybe uncorrelated look like you mentioned like we talked about there he's at like four and a half receptions but heavily juiced over you can maybe get a five and a half that'd be a five and a half under would be nice yeah you more than make up for that juice yards could be interesting yeah yeah okay Super Bowl Connor who's gonna be oh yeah super bowl shit

this is really tough um let's see here I think it's so wide open I know like I don't even have like I don't know do you do you have a good idea right now to like to start I don't know I like I you go first no I totally put you on the spot um I don't have a good idea to start um I really I really don't

I feel like I'm, I feel like I'm kind of down to two teams in each conference, I guess. I would say Seattle and the Rams. Because I do think we can have one of those, this feels like such a wide open year that this could be one of those years where defense is just so elite and so strong that they can, you know, like you go back to the Manning Broncos year. You know, you have some of these teams historically where, you know, the Bucks 20 years ago, or whatever, and the Ravens before that, you know, back in like, you know, 99, 2000, where they're just, that unit is so good.

They make up for some questionable deficiencies. Seattle's, the question is a quarterback. You hate when the question's a quarterback. That's terrifying. But they might just be that good everywhere else. So, Rams, Seattle. And then I do think New England's feisty enough to get it done. And I also think the Texans are terrifying.

So those are kind of my four teams. them narrowed down to i have straight up no idea in the afc like i think that i mean i'm talking myself more and more into the jags i think the texans are very much qualified and the defense could just like just you know like defense could be back like the narrative a new next season is like defense you know matters again defense wins championships all that stuff i think that's like very much the range of outcomes here when they let the steelers like when the stealers score like 10 points or whatever 13 points um And then they would go to, I don't know, would they go to the four or five,

then they'd play someone else not as good. Well, so Jacksonville wins. They go to New England if New England wins, right? The changes to the Chargers win. The Chargers, if the charges be New England, they automatically go to Denver. So they play Broncos, right? Texans would play as Broncos if they want.

Yeah. And the Broncos would score like no points as well. Well, they wouldn't if Buffalo beat Jacksonville. Okay. So Buffalo would then be the highest remaining seed. they go to they would go to Denver and then maybe forced to play

the winner of I'd rather play Denver than Patriots. 1,000% of Denver, I don't, I know the defense is good. I don't think there's good as like the Texans or Seattle.

And like, when you look at some of like the common opponents that even New England because obviously New England's taken an absolute beating on strength of schedule analysis. Like, they beat the Jets by

two points um i keep going back to like those games are like they just they can't run away from bad teams like they almost lost yesterday to tray lance who almost couldn't put together a forward pass was so bad he was trying to win that game and they had a chance late he was forced to be and keenan allen and the amount of balls that he threw like legit 15 yards over his head was astounding it was crazy yeah i just i just don't trust i just don't trust Denver I think they could show up and beat anybody, but I just don't think they can continue to fake it a little bit this much in the playoffs. Then they'll have home field advantage.

It matters a ton, but just not buying it. I'm going to go with Rams and Texans. Okay. I can get down on Rams Texans. Like I said, they're two of my four. Then I'll go. But I don't know. I kind of like it.

I go New England Seattle rematch which I wouldn't want because I love Seattle so much they've just you know I was early on the Mike McDonald's stuff I've been like

they've drafted like all the guys I'd like come out of the draft for like the last three years defensively you got like Witherspoon Julian Love

Ernest Jones Nick Emma Worry Byron Murphy like all these guys are awesome and they get I think arguably the best defensive coach in the league scheming them up it's been they're pretty awesome so yeah part of me wants

texans texan seahawks just just to see it just to watch the world burn yeah get like a 37 and a half point total or something like that under still the play um people would be so mad dude yeah it'd be over by nine o'clock because you just they punt and you know well actually it'd be a little bit longer to be a lot of incompletions so Yeah, that's, it's going to be interesting because it is wide open. Like you said, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, one of those teams would surprise me. Chicago puts it together. I don't know.

Chicago would surprise me, I guess. I mean, I think they can win this week. I mean, them winning like two more games would be in the NFC would be a lot. And I even think that maybe they win like one more after that. Like, you know, again, like they, whatever. They beat, you know, they beat the Packers. then they would probably host they host philly if philly wins yeah then they host philly like that would be tough um and then they would have to play one of these like joggernauts

yeah if san francisco beats philly then they play the rams which is tough that's yeah that's like that's like impossible i don't even know yeah all right should be good appreciate everyone hanging out with us as always um let's know in the comment section who you think is going Super Bowl. Let us know why our picks are awful, why we're donkeys. Appreciate that as well. Come back on Friday, 3 p.m. Eastern. Again, 4-4 live on YouTube, move the line where we listen to podcast for Prop Drop. The board's populating a little bit. I mean, obviously, limits a little bit low on a Monday, but the fact that we're getting some bets and some markets popping, that's pretty encouraging. So it's with some money this week. So appreciate everyone hanging out, as always,

for Connor and Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody. Thank you.