Move The Line - Move The Line - Week 5 Betting Recap & Week 6 Early Predictions!

Episode Date: October 6, 2025

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Hello and welcome to move a line presented by Sharpstack. Ryan Newton, joined here. As always, us recovering from yet another adventurous weekend of town, another wedding. Going on, Connor, how we doing today, bud? I mean, I've definitely been better, but I feel like I'm back from the grave. You know, I'm revived. Thankfully, you were here to, you know, keep the ship upright and do the show yesterday. When inactive's dropped, had a pretty light weekend of props, but four in one.

So, again, like I'm literally in figuratively back from the grave of a slow prop season year to start. But, and the one that we lost was Carson Wentz. He had like a buck 60 with like three minutes left and then had like an 80 yard drive, of course, like in the last, you know, whatever, a couple minutes. Which that was tough, but, you know, name of the game here. So it's fun to do a Monday show and we should, I think it'll be a cool style here on Monday. Yeah, I'm excited for this. You know, also, like, bearing the lead. We almost got the Millie Parley.

Oh, my God. One yard plus, well, actually, it's actually better now that Ferguson didn't it because I would have been, like, not upset, but, like, I would have been sweating. Someone who really got to enjoy the Drake May experience last night, I would not want to have been really needing Drake May to get us 40 rushing yards to win us. I don't know, $300,000 or whatever it was going to be. Yeah, so you don't watch the Friday show. We put together a big parlay every week in the Friday show.

Basically, things we already like, and we take the alt legs, take them up a little bit, turn the screws. And we had a lot of success. We're actually heading into the Sunday night game where if Jake Ferguson had 50 yards, we would have been live just needing 40 more rushing yards for Drake May. Jake Ferguson had 49 yards. We had hit the other five or six legs in the parlay. Most of them by like a yard or two, which was also kind of, wild we had just taken it up just enough uh so yeah again well i'm sure we'll get to plenty of drake

may discussion but i'm glad i didn't have to watch that game through the lens of drake may needing to run for 40 yards because it would have really really ruined the night yeah i mean well they were we can get into that game in a little bit but they were spying him like they were like really trying to like make sure he didn't run so um hindsight felt didn't feel that bad it was almost like uh reminiscent of my nico collins thing last year whether i had like five leg round robin alts i needed nico 100 for like 12 gs and uh he got an 80 yard touchdown call back on the first play and then finished with like 60 yards um not great no i was thinking in hindsight too last night well it was easy because it didn't matter at the time and i was like

okay you know as they have rooting interest in the sunday night game in that scenario i'm like what would the number of have been from a cash out because i'm almost always like a no cash out never cash out always ride it like what would the number have needed to be cash out wise for me to feel like knowing that i'm like leaving evy on the table but just for like a piece of mind piece like if i'm getting six figures offered to me in the cash out probably clicking that button yesterday i think there's no way that you're getting you're getting like that i think it's going to be like i think they'll they always screw you it'll be like half of whatever you think it should be like that's like that's where i'm like half that's where i'm like half

of where you think he should be, which I mean, still still would be a good payout. But every time I like, yeah, every time I close to it and I'm thinking like, oh, this can make sense. I'm like, no, fuck it. Let it ride. You know, like it's, I know. Yeah. That's anytime I see someone that's like thinking about it or like learning with the idea

of the cash out, I'll comment like, leave that ride it. Like, you know, why would you ever make the bed if you want to cash it out? And I'm just thinking like, all right, well, this is a different layer too of, you know, fandom in the game, right? So, you know, bringing that into. to a piece of it too. I'm like, well, what would I do? And so, hey, I would love to have that problem again this Sunday. So we'll see. Tune in for the Friday show.

Also, take advantage of Sharpstack. It's right now available new suite of betting tools here at 4-4-4-4. You get a free seven-day trial. All you need to do is go to the site, 444.com slash plans. Take advantage. You can upgrade if you're already a subscriber. We have some more information of that in our Discord. You'll reach out to Conoride directly.

If you have any questions there, we'd love to have to. help walk through that to take advantage. If you want to sign up, you've taken a seven-day free trial and you want to kind of take the next steps. You can use promo code MTL 50 for 50% off of your first month. You want to ride for the whole year. Just use promo code MTL. That gets you 25% off of the full calendar year. And again, right now we're obviously talking about football, but it has all the sports. Again, we're close to NBA and NHL popping in there. You still have baseball playoffs, WMBA finals. All those different things are in there as well, college football. So take advantage, check it out. Fantastic tool. Again, there's EV tool, market-based projections. We're

catering to pick them players, arb tools, prop screens, all that stuff. We'll share a little bit of it today. If you have questions, let us know. We'd love to help walk you through that. So this is our new spot for this. We're going to be every Monday, 3 p.m. Eastern. Again, looking a little bit back on the week prior, looking at how like the look headlines have shifted into, you know, the upcoming week. And then talk a little bit of futures as well, probably if we have time. And again, don't forget about prop drop again get that parlay next week make sure you're tailing along with us we're gonna get close we just i felt really good about i almost messaged you and slop i'm like actually really really feel good about sometimes there's like a lag or two that i'm like

i wasn't feeling that one but like i got a rock for the community but like this week i'm like i think we i think we're on to something i thought we like we had a good week so uh we carry that momentum that optimism into uh to week six so all right let's jump in week five takeaways uh let's get started. We had a London game. We had obviously another early start, another one this week, too. Vikings Browns, I know you probably watched very little of this football game because you were in the middle of dying. Yeah, I'm going to let you go for this one. I watched every other one. I didn't watch much of this one. I didn't think you watched much at all. I would say kind of what we would expect from a Carson Wentz, Dylan Gabriel affair, some teams that want to run

the football some defenses that were pretty stout once holding the line i think was okay i don't think dylan gabriel was that bad either to be honest and i think that's kind of what they were looking for they did a really good job but just trying to have him get the ball out quickly and get it into playmaker's hands and again lean on junkins and run the football a ton um you know interesting spot coming back here with the browns not having a buy minnesota on a buy phaedlin comes back goes on the road in the division to pittsburg who's coming off of a buy so really brutal schedule spot here for Cleveland, who I would really actually be interested in maybe having some upset thoughts on the slate here for week six.

But any general thoughts that you would think about here? Yeah, because there was five and a half, six point dogs, basically in week six against the Steelers, at the Steelers. Yeah, I mean, we're looking at Gabriel 19 and 33 for 190 yards, and then like in Joku and Harold Fanon caught 10 of the 19 completions. So I don't know, it's kind of interesting. I'm going to go back and watch Gabriel. Did he, the arm strength stuff, zero percent concern, it doesn't matter, just didn't

throw the ball deep down field. Like, did he try and push the ball down field? He did. As someone who was, you know, trying to ride out Isaiah Bond. And again, I got just the sickest back-to-back weeks of getting home on the last play of the game. Isaiah Bond catches like a nine-yard hitch on the first drive. Like, all right, this is all we need.

We just got one in the bag. I had over 27 and a half receiving yards. seven more targets. I'm not sure any of them were even somewhat catchable. It was like prayer yards. It was like he was the closest guy, but he was kind of thrown it away,

but he's going to get a target on that one. And then we get literally the play before their attempted Hail Mary to end the game is like a 25-yard seam route up the middle to Isaiah Pont who got home for me again somehow. So yeah, I don't have any concerns about the arm strength.

I think they were a little concerned, conservative with the approach on how they like pressured him in the first half and then turn the screws a little bit in the second half but i don't know think he was okay flaco like was terrible so i think this could be a pretty i don't say sizable upgrade but it could be a decent upgrade for them they could be competitive with dylan gabriel last thing i thought was interesting coming out of the game is that there was like reports that the browns are going to like they're already planning on seeing shitter sanders at some point in the season that like kind of came out that they're like going to give him a chance and i'm like why are you saying that

like you just let let Gabriel ride like yeah it's weird it seems like a weird thing to say when you just put in a different rookie that you drafted higher than shudder like I don't know I mean I get that that's gonna that's what's going to happen like I understand that but that's not something you say out loud at least in my opinion yeah yeah it's bizarre uh 44 10 Houston and Baltimore wasn't even that close um we wanted what he makes to be the guy I don't think Nick Chubb's going away and Nick Chubb actually looked pretty good. Yeah.

33 rushing yards over expecting that game. Again, I can't take away anything from anything from the Ravens in terms of like projecting it forward because this is just not who we expected them to be and who they're going to be. They're about to be one in five. They're like seven and a half point dogs at home this week to the Rams who are coming off of a tough beat on Thursday's extra rest.

any takeaways from Texans ravens not a whole lot um there was a report that came out that said that they might the ravens might consider snoop humly uh this week instead of cooper rush um or like depending on what happens i wouldn't be that surprised i mean that was embarrassing but i don't know the raven's defense is just shot i mean they just when you lose half your starters and your best players um what was this that 160 million of their salary cap is injured right now of their total salary gap i mean just how are you going to compete yeah you're not you're good players so and again by week coming up on the other side of the rams game uh i'm not buying anything really from the texans um i do think the texans showed in a way that like when they play

bad football teams they could probably do this occasionally and really the current iteration if the ravens are a bad football team and they uh they whooped them so um hard to take anything and move forward with it. Carolina, one of the many teams to win after trailing by more than 10 points on Sunday wins at home against Miami, saves my Miami worse than the league bags, especially in the head-to-head battle for Carolina. Unfortunately, your jets are doing some serious work there too. They continue to do their thing, but yeah, I mean, Rico Dowell looks amazing.

I don't know. How long is until Miami loses their head coach here? Yeah, it's got to be soon. It's funny because they had not like a dominant leave, but it felt like that they were dominating the game pretty early. And like, I don't know, the Panthers are just like, all right, we're going to just run the ball and it was working. And Miami couldn't do anything about it.

So I don't think, I don't really think Bryce Young played particularly well. Like I'm continuously unimpressed at least this season so far. he's really in hindsight now he's had what like the game of five games where he looks good and most of those games were against like pretty bad teams like last year there's like that tail end of when he got benched and came back he doesn't look all that good tech continues to be great so far um well above average but not really breaking it open just because bryce sucks i think uh like if you gave him i don't know like a james or someone like even annie dalton like for a couple games i bet that he'd probably go nuclear to be honest um someone with a little more yellow to them. But the dolphins, just tough when you can't stop the run at all. And you're letting Rico Dowdle go for 206. You're not going to win many games, no matter what. And no Tyreek is tough, too.

Yeah, Waldo played well, but you can't go to Carolina run. They had 14 yards on 13 design runs. And it's against Carolina. Who, again, they've actually, their run defense has improved. I feel like we thought it would be better. It's not good, but it's improved. But they were just that offensive line from my head. is a problem so yes is again just two has got no dog to in the end like stuff tough

scene uh Colts whooped up on the Raiders 40 to 6 I and Colts are kind of a wagon in a way pretty solid deserved favorite it currently uh Raiders down so bad right now Brady's got to be like absolutely crawling like he probably had to do that that commander's Chargers game he was probably like boiling under the collar like knowing that he's just signed and extended gino to a big old deal he's got an 80 year old head coach that seems kind of lost uh no defense to speak of they're down bad brock power is obviously not playing uh just the fact that you can't take advantage of depleted colt secondary and get like jacobo bier's free for anything there was some like massive clv on jacobie mire's head like

this number's like 55 and a half or something like that for while and then closed in like the low 70s and i think i remember looking at one point like one catch for four yards in the fourth quarter uh so not not great any takeaways here yeah finished with four for 32 biggest takeaways gno continues to not really play all that well through some picks i mean some of them were in his fault i think one was like a tipped one four sacks genty like he was fine 67 yards on 14 carries but like i mean again it's just been the bears game where the Bears are like the worst run defense in the league right now or like were I guess when they're banged up so I don't know I want to figure like the Colts right events is not very good

they've been pretty bad for the most part outside of yeah they've been pretty bad so I think the genties like I'm not buying the one one week bounce back where you know against the bears and now like whatever this was it was fine I guess five for 42 through the air overall though the Colts this week's interesting right six and a half point favorites at home against the Cardinals kind of like the Colts here um not buying much cardinal stuff yeah it was three and a half in the lookaheads and that's pretty much all i wrote when i was writing up the line was like if the colts are real you take care of this at home against the cardinals at three and a half or whatever it is under seven like i i'm

with you though we've seen obviously positive movement for the colts but that feels pretty interesting especially again like one of those spots where you just kind of have to rubber stamp the fact that you're a real team the carnals are obviously down pretty bad we'll get there too for sure uh next one painful for me a little bit. Saints, 26, Giants, 14, that's 40 points. I was looking for 40 and a half in that game personally. So back and forth, turns out you can't turn it over that many times. One of those Jackson Dart fumbles was like just the weirdest little, he scrambled out, didn't know what to do, was trying to run, just drop the football. But yeah, five overall turnovers, Spencer Rattler gets off the mat, gets his first win, and he, Giants and Saints takeaways for you.

we predicted a lot of play volume and we end up with 132 total plays it wasn't pretty from dart most of the time he missed dari slayton on like a deep bomb there that like throws another five yards it's like a walk-in touchdown uh again the weird the fumble was very weird i mean he's i don't want to change my opinion off of the one game that we saw and it was kind of like he's fun he's interesting because he's new but he's not very good right now uh like it's not all there together and i don't blame him he's throwing a derry slayton won no robinson and like you know he's not perfect either so he doesn't have much around him to kind of overcome overcome his flaws so they're going to probably win a couple more games that they shouldn't just because he has like a great outlier game and then they can lose to literally anyone as seen by the saints uh so um i saints side i can i don't know it's just they're very much fine i i think they're just like a bad team that uh there's not much to take away from outside of like rattler i mean again probably bought himself some more games here but that's that's it maybe that's all i got You know what I will say?

I think that the Saints aren't the worst team. Who do you think the worst team is right now? Titans still or no? I mean, Jets have the fewest wins, which is awesome. Jets of the fewest wins is pretty terrible. They're pretty terrible. That's the problem with it. I don't think they're the worst team either.

The Titans are pretty terrible. They should also have no wins. Again, I still think I am cheering for my bags for sure. I think Miami is pretty terrible. I think the Tyreek injury is bad The defense is rough No offensive line It's just 2 in Waddle

And A chain and make some stuff happen I don't know It's pretty thing I just feel something I don't think The things about Mike McDaniel As a O.C. Or like schematically I think he can scheme some wins

But I think they're pretty bad I would say probably the Titans Yeah I would still say the Titans But Titans, Titans, Dolphins, Jets saints in my opinion are kind of all in a tier i mean maybe probably the giants i mean you're just losing the saints you probably got to be kind of included somewhere in there i'd say those teams probably and somewhere yeah i was looking at some stuff in the defense on the saints

to get some guys they're actually playing pretty well better than they thought they're getting some some pressure at least from carl granderson they're not getting any pressure from the other side of the line but five straight turnovers too for the giant so it wasn't just the they have five turnovers they turned the ball over in five consecutive possessions that's uh that's going to that's going to cost you pretty pretty heavily pretty quickly there which is down pretty bad and we have two straight games of Jackson Dart within the first scripted

looking really good it's like I can script 60 place I don't know what to tell you figure it out build the whole plane out of the black box 3722 Cowboys over the Jets another spot where it just didn't feel really that close

and kudos again to DAC I think Dak takes a beating part of it is I think being the Dallas Cowboys quarterback again is bad or is not good if they've been for large parts of the last 30-so years, considering the expectations for Dallas. Dak, continue to elevate a pretty, again, playing without four offensive line starters, playing without C.D. Lamb, their secondary is atrocious.

And finally, late in the game, Justin Fields took advantage of that. Like, they're going to have a hard time against really good teams, but they're going to need Dak to push them into, like, the mid-30s. He continues to do that. Yeah, you called it earlier in our Slack. I think at some point. He brought up Ryan Fornoy. I bet it.

I wish I would have pushed it out. I bet it. You bet it? Yeah, it was 15 and a half. Okay. Yeah. I mean, he's kind of popped every time he's played and I guess he was going to play a lot.

So that made sense. I remember liking him in the like, you know, I come in late in the pre-draft process from like the deep prospect piece because we're typically talking for second round betting. Right. And we start to like dip into like the other prospects. And I'm like, this guy actually looks pretty interesting. Like South Mess, Missouri State or something.

like that and i know we like popped in the senior bowl and like it did some stuff i'm like okay this gave like good size speed combo guy i'm like all right this might be a guy 15 and a half receiving yards crushed it dude wish i would have taken alts wow i wanted to take some jaden blue unders um but i wasn't alive for that i don't i don't think it was widely posted it was like 15 and a half some like that i mean the the the nike lubiton shoe incident where he gets blisters shoddy comes out and it's like yeah those were some interesting that was an interesting to decision questionable choices there made by jaden blue like you knew he was going to get like four carries was like the most i think that was probably because they were winning i would assume

so i mean overall the jets team stinks like this game was not even close for most i mean yeah jet scored 16 points in the fourth quarter it was what 30 to six uh entering the fourth quarter so yeah i mean it was like the box score makes it look like it could have been reasonably close at some points and it really was not we have like this preconceived notion of who like the cowboy's corners are too right we have a bunch of like deron bland interceptions a couple years ago like same thing with digs a couple years ago digs in particular we've like a lot of data now on digs just being like really bad his like EPA per like target the completion percentage over expectation allowed is some of the worst in the league

he is just a he's just not good he's going to take some opportunities some chances and gamble and get some picks and some big splashy plays, you get him against Ted McMillan this week. Cooked, absolutely cooked. Right, he might pick, he might pick Bruce Young off and run one back, but he's just going to lose consistently down after down. So, yeah, they're bad.

They generated some pass rush. Part of that's just Justin Fields, who seems to have no pocket awareness sometimes. It's just wild to watch. Like, you know, was watching a lot of that game for different props. and different stuff and it's just like there's just no clock in his head you just hit that back foot and you get to two and a half three seconds and you have to you can't continue to stay stationary

and hold on to the football you have to then break pocket break in tame you have athleticism he took a bunch of sacks that were a thousand percent him which is just got to be infuriating for jets fans to watch yeah five sacks 49 yards on those sacks only ran seven times or 26 yards kind of what we talked about heading into the game and then yeah mason taylor and ger Wilson both got there in the end but yeah it wasn't pretty i don't know i don't know i mean when i think the i mean the jets will lose of the dolphins probably right like at least i don't know we just had that right two weeks ago last week yeah they lost one they well they lost once i feel like the i mean i don't know i mean they should beat the dolphins once though too right later i mean it's

like yeah the toilet bowl we've got broncos pants I mean, you can beat the Bengals or Browns, maybe, if you get really, really lucky. At Patriots, at Ravens, they're going to be healthy, so no. I mean, there's some winnable games if Justin Fields is a ceiling game. But, I mean, talking about maybe two, three wins, probably. Yeah. They're such a bad matcher for the Browns. Like, the Browns are one you'd be like, yeah.

Then you're like, yeah, the Browns have four dogs in the front on the defensive line. Oh, God, yeah. They're going to feast. So, yeah, it's tough. Speaking of dogs on the defensive line, Denver, 21, 7. over Philly. Philly again, another one of these teams

that got up by 10 that could not hold on. Again, we talked about it last week is such a, Philly's so weird, like they're 4-0, but the vibes were so off. You get the cryptic A.J. Brown tweets,

they had not really felt like they had put together four quarters. The Broncos have had a couple of games. Three and two, they could very easily be 5 and 0. They've just, you know, a couple of random plays in that late Chargers game. And then obviously the call in Indy

with the field goal there. Again, like Bonix hasn't looked Great, but that defense is carrying them. Sutton was awesome, and that was enough to win, 21-17. Six carries for Sequin Barclay shocked me. I mean, that's 38 past attempts for Jalen Hertz. Like, A.J. Dillon had two carries. Will Shipley had one carry.

Like, that's, I don't know. It's kind of wild to me. I understand maybe he was like a pure matchup thing, but going that pass up against the Bronco secondary to me, it seemed kind of. You got up 10 zip. They get up. like they were playing like trailing yeah i don't know it's great and then the broncos were playing for mine

20 carries for jk daubbins um and i don't know very strange game overall um Denver obviously like the late comeback there 18 points in the fourth quarter uh not too many takeaways just besides like this philly team is like we touched on a little bit last week like i think finding ways to fade them in the right spots could make sense because they're not as good as their record says at least in my opinion i agree yeah broncos continue to be pretty heavily penalized every week they could figure that out a little bit not have to play from behind and kind of get out of their own way um i was wrong on nick benito i thought nick benito was good and was going to continue to be good but i thought he we did he way overperformed his underlying metrics last year guess what he's doing it again he is

awesome and a problem and a legit defensive player of the candidate especially if they end up making the playoffs and they're currently i think favored pretty comfortably to be a playoff team so i'll be looking out for denver tennessee 2221 the most incredible i mean i don't know how much you watched this it was only four games in the late window oh my gosh i mean and first of all he's in peace for anyone that had the cardinals and survivor i mean just the most insane oh dude i'm sorry Sorry. It's just the most insane sort of like loss that I can think of in a very, very, very long time.

Wild. I'm sure anyone listening to this probably already knows some of the things that broke down. I don't know how we continue to have this happen in the year 2025 where guys let go with the ball ahead of time. The insane interception, fumble, kick fumble into the end zone and Tyler Lockett, who was like spent the last 10 years avoiding contact at all. all costs, jumps into the fray to land on top of the ball to recover it. You get a long snap or a shotgun snap, concussing your quarterback, just a wild scenario, like the most highly thing ever, Titans Cardinals, Connor, I'm sorry.

Yeah, we hosted a survivor contest this year, as many of you guys know through Splash. I think I had four or five entries, and this week I had the Rams and the Cardinals. um as my two last entries and rest in peace to those uh but overall like the first off the demarcato stuff dropping the ball for that zone inexcusable they weren't that good to begin with so like that was a little bit tough and then cam ward played some of his best football down the stretch there that last quarter he played much better through some absolute dots to calvin ridley um yeah not to like el milanore where's that where's my guy yeah i like a ghost Ridley 5 for 131.

I took under 39 on my own. Yeah. So much for that. I know Jake played under three and a half catches. We were on the wrong side of the right read. We were directionally correct with, I think, a heavy pass volume day for the Titans, and we somehow managed to miss the board. Yeah, chig crushed Gunner Helm.

I almost played that overt, but, I mean, it seemed thin, like four for 34. That's wild. This over under was like 12. I don't know, I think this is definitely, I mean, it's crazy to say. This is definitely, in my opinion, Cam Ward's best game, not because they won, but he actually showed more, I don't know, they showed life for a little bit and mostly the fourth quarter, but overall, still I think they're really bad. They're really bad.

The Cardinals are also bad, want to find more ways to fade them. I just, maybe not about bad, but they're like, they shouldn't be, I think they're more highly regarded than what they should be. yeah another team that really to be fair has had a bunch of injuries too so that's been a little bit harder for them i think the titans combination of uh talent and coaching is probably why i think they're the worst team in league again even in a scenario where they get that touchdown but it's high a lot could touchdown it's 2112 uh why would you not go for two in that scenario no idea why they didn't go for two and then they missed the extra point which is like

It was just very strange. The whole thing was very strange. I just felt like you're struggling to get down and drive and get any points on the board. You're here. Get an opportunity to like, you stole two points versus, you know,

stole six points. Try to get two more. And then you know, Joey Slimis is in the extra point. I'm pretty sure that the numbers will say to go for two, right? Because it's if like you're down 14 and you score a touchdown. The point is to go for two early instead of late.

I mean, I'm sure the Titans coaching staff doesn't pay attention any of that shit. So they're like, oh, no, let's go for one. And then maybe we, score again we'll go for two in the last second you know thing but yeah he missed extra point anyways i just thought it was funny that he was so surely like was pointed up like no we're going

going for one we're going to kick the extra point when i think most numbers would tell you otherwise so um the fact they don't even deserve this win i yeah it was crazy crazy game crazy i feel i'm sorry yeah i feel bad for i that's why i every year i'm like oh man survivor it should be so easy and then i just lose everything in the first four or five weeks pick a winner of course the packers is nine point favors are going to lose the browns you know what i mean and like you know the cardinal shit the bed gets the i think we saw the what the top three or like four the top five or the top three and and the circa survivor were gone this week right yeah it's brutal just brutal really fun football game too in the lead window 38 35 Tampa bay

two teams that came in less than 100 percent in the secondary in particular and that's why we got i think the shootout that we did baker continues to ball out um the baker's almost like a sneaky it's not even sneaky anymore based on the price let me see what the prices like baker MVP is like is getting hit pretty heavily today um 12 to 1 still out there on caesar's and draft kings 11 on fan duel Josh allen Patrick mohomes jordan love of the other guys that are kind of in that mix balling out no bucky no Mike Evans, a mecca-a-a-buka torching Seattle. Again, Seattle without Julian Love, Seattle without, you know, my voicemoon.

It's not the full-on Seahawks, but kudos to Baker for absolutely cooking. Nine of his 11 passes. I go for 10 plus air yards there late. Just continue to cook. A ton of pressure. Didn't matter. Yeah, thoughts on Baker versus Seattle. I lost your volume

It just continues to play well And it's one of those things Where maybe I think about this more Is like did Baker make Liam Cohen and Dave Canales It's a great point Like I mean The Jaguars are playing

I mean fairly well They're playing above their billing Trevor Lawrence is not playing well They're running the ball well But they're not I wouldn't say Trevor Lawrence is playing well Dave Canales again Bryce Young conversation

He's had five good games maybe be in two years at this point. So, I don't know, just something I keep in the back of my mind where I'm like, Baker's ball in, doesn't matter who it is. You get Josh, Josh Grizzard, is that it is? Josh, Josh, the Glizzy King. All right, we got him at OC. Interesting scheduling note, though, for this Bucksie, if you do want to buy some Bucs

features, the last four or five games here are wild. It's like Cardinals, Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Panthers. That's how they end the season. Like, oh. I mean, they're going to win, what, five out of six of those, at least maybe all six. Like, that's, like, probably all six. I mean, they're going to at least be heavy favorites in most of them, except for maybe the Falcons game.

It'll be close-ish, I'd guess. And then Cardinals will be close-ish, spread-wise. But, yeah, I don't even know how you do it because, I mean, I guess it would be NFC number one seed. They're like minus 340 to win the division. So that's tough. Yeah. Plus 750 to be the number one seed, Detroit, Philly, San Francisco, Green Bay,

ahead of them they're currently a fifth on the odds board for that that best number is on fan duel but it's an interesting call out because look i mean the mike evans thing it's a hamstring he'll probably be back relatively soon godwin coming back that's okay none of the defensive injuries like the guys they were missing this week doesn't feel like anything is long term uh their offensive line is just getting healthier too like same thing bucky irving probably back relatively soon shout out to you on uh rashad white you know cannot get off the mat even in a game that goes 38 35 14 carries for 41 yards what a fucking clown so the touchdowns and I'm like wait a second what's he doing in this game and then uh you saw some receiving

work I'm like oh no Connor's fine he's got 27 he got a pitch back for negative eight yards uh yes a rush too I was like that's amazing like I mean kind of got saved there a little bit but uh that was awesome uh you still still was cruising for a bit yeah uh the other way to go I mean your pro buck stuff i mean he's the favorite mecabuka offensive rookie of the year plus 115 on a fan duel just kind of wilds again we just always talk about when you have quarterback making you know starting a week once really hard to to beat that guy cammore down to 22 to 1 so cammore not a threat uh right now to take the offensive rookie there like abacabuca's been awesome like next to the board is asking genti who i think again

Ashton Tenty is good at football. I don't have any doubt. This situation is awful, and running back is massively dependent on situation. So his offensive line and quarterback play ahead of him is really bad. Jackson Dart, it's fun, but, you know, no. So Abuka, again, with Hampton going down, you know, the only one is like, Junkins is pretty interesting at 15 because he's kind of a dog, I think.

So the Browns do show some pulse. But that's it. I mean, Nabucco would probably need to get hurt. Yeah, I think the two that stand out to me are Judkins. And I think Tyler Warren at 11 to 1 is interesting. I don't know why there's, I mean, I don't think you should be cheaper than like Tett and Jackson Dart is like, I mean, he's just playing quarterback. He's not, but he's not going to win any games.

So like, that's the problem. Whereas like Tyler Warren and Tyler Warren, he plays for a good team. I mean, it had a slower day this week, but overall he's been playing really well. so I don't know I think a couple of big games from him and things can change pretty drastically yeah uh all right next um you see we're at the sunday slates oof detroit 37 cincinnati 24 again not as close as the box score would indicate the first half jake browning experience was absolutely horrific showed a little bit of life late again picking on a detroit secondary that's depleted terran arnold went down in this game

DJ reads on the I are I still couldn't really take advantage of it until late most of the DeMont narratives got home goal line touchdown pass early killed anyone trying to chase those two touchdowns for three to one or whatever the insane price was but uh jay browning at one point the I am multiple people message me this and uh even hunter in our discord put it at one point and this is when you know you're real you down real bad jimar chase had three tackles at one point he was the leading tackler in the game for the bengals it's never a good scenario uh takeaways here oh man i don't know like lions the same business as usual scored a lot of points nothing really i don't think takeaway there it's like expected they did what they're

supposed to do bangles they need to find someone else jake browning's not the guy looked good in the end but it was all garbage time jimar chase just absolutely burned the guy for like a 60 yard touchdown uh that was all on jimar chase nothing to do with you i think pretty confident And most of us, like, you know, could make the throw that it was like he was that wide open. Like it was, you know, I don't know if I could throw it that far, but, you know, somewhere's in that range, you know, it's, it was embarrassing. And then just continues, like, Chase, they can't run the ball. Chase Brown and them just like, they can't run the ball at all, which sucks. O-line sucks.

Browning took, yeah, only two sacks, but three picks is not going to get it done. So Bengals need to make some changes here before Burrow gets back, I think. I mean, look, in, what are we, week 15, week 16? call the giants get one of those two quarterbacks call call call the niners get mac get like get him a corkel in there like there's no way the there's no way the nors no way should deal mac by the way that's like no i agree that's the thing like i don't know the division is so bad do you know who currently is the favorite to win the afc north i think the ravens still i think did you post on it or minus one in five they're one in four they're about to be one

and five i mean crazy but that's like there's that's a spot where like it's open it's open if you're the bangles like i know your defense is still going to be a problem but man it's not like you're just holding on until like week 10

like the burrow thing could be week 15 week 16 like severe turf toe that's not you don't rush that back um so i don't know rich eyes and bangles should trade for james winston yeah i mean just like how much worse can it get like he just try something else like you jake browning is not the guy trade for someone something uh you know grow a pair and make some moves bangles

don't commanders yeah commanders 27 10 against the chargers charges charges also on the team up 10 zip look like they were in control i really liked the chargers in this one they continue to suffer injuries like they always do offensive lines getting beat up marion Hampton goes down in this game. They had a couple of scenarios where Justin Herbert makes some absolute great plays and holding a penalty and makes another great play called back for illegal formation. It's just like, man, they just can't, when they're down bad and they're like running poor, they run so poor.

And look, Bill look good. Jane Daniels was back. Defense was okay. Some opportunistic turnovers. put some pressure on them. Again, the offensive line is a problem for the Chargers right now. Four sacks, nine hits, pressure 12 times. Not great.

Thoughts on Commanders and Chargers. Kind of a weird game. Yeah, Chargers, like, two games in a row now, just like I haven't really played up to their building, I think, after they started off 3 and 0. So at this point, like, the commanders are such a team. One of those teams for me, I just can never get right, seemingly. I thought this is a great spot with Chargers.

you know, Jane Daniels first game back. Still ran the ball eight times for 39 yards. It didn't seem to be hampered too much. Didn't seem to be like full explosiveness, but like seemed to have enough juice there to really make it work. And yeah, the Chargers just like couldn't make it happen. It's just a weird game.

So I don't have too many takeaways. I don't want to like, you know, throwing the towel on the Chargers by any means. I don't want to be like, oh, the commanders are totally fine. I would, I think Bill should get more work. That's kind of what's surprising to me still. 14 carries for 111 is good Chris Rodriguez is five carries for seven yards

Jeremy McNichols one for six like they need to start JCM and then rotate in McNichols on third down and some Rodriguez if they want but it should just be bill I mean yeah I agree you look good yeah um Chargers still I think favored to make the playoffs but now have shifted to some books for the most but third in that division just kind of interesting right where they were you know a minus whatever favorite two weeks ago. And now chiefs are favored. Broncos with some momentum are either basically even or ahead at some books in that division. So it's fascinating how quickly that can turn. Again, you had the chargers with the three wins all head to head in the division. And we thought

they'd be, you know, again, we were still in September, but they had a nice head start. But all comes down pretty quickly when you lose, you know, some important offensive line pieces. I need you to go back and tell everyone, we're back on top. 2320, Sunday night football. Drake May He's fantastic It's fantastic Connor It's great I don't even know what to say

I don't have anything reasonable to say I felt fandom for the first time For my football team in a very long time Yeah I'm so team agnostic these days Like I still root for the paths But again I'm rooting for my bets on Sunday

More than anything But Drake May made me feel things I haven't felt in a long time He played awesome I mean there's undeniably It was great The play where they made where he was, like, getting tackled and threw it to Diggs.

And, like, Diggs kind of, like, you know, got his way out of there. He turned a sack into, like, a 12-yard game, basically. There was just so many great throws. And this is with Ramandre still somehow playing. Like, I don't know what are they cut the guy. Like, just cut him. I think why they're now. We just lost Antonio Gibson for the year.

Yeah. I think the reason that they have him and, like, Rabel said it after the game is, like, we need, he needs this out funnily because we need his skill set, like, out there. And I think they mean just, like, past blocking and short yard. basically is what, in my opinion, that's what I took that is, like, we don't have a guy that can do either of those well right now. So, like, we need him out there. That's what I, that's what I'm guessing because, but he should never get a carry again.

If he's on my football team, I would never hand him the ball outside of, no, I would never, I don't care, sign anyone else, just you're done. This is crazy. What was seven fumbles last year and three in the last two games, three plus? They have one in the weeks early in season two, no, I think it was just these three, right? It was wild as that early in his career. He never fumbled. That was like his calling card.

Because he was like, he had been in the league for a long time, I think, before he had any fumbles and, like, a lot of touches. And it was like, all right, it takes care of the football. Belichick's going to love, it loves that stuff. And now we're, we're down, we're down pretty, pretty bad. So the defense looks better, though. That's, I think Christian Gonzalez has changed a lot for that. I think that's a huge, hugely underrated piece. Yeah.

He was awesome. I don't think that, like, I think it started, like, the first few weeks of the Patriots were, like, kind of a target. You know, they were, they were not playing well. They were getting rinsed. Their run defense is good, but their passives is really bad. Now I think you had Gonzalez in there, shift some pieces around, and they played pretty well the last two weeks. Yeah, they made some personnel changes.

Again, they basically have essentially two rookies. I mean, Jalen Hawkins isn't a rookie, but very inexperienced in the secondary. What's into they drafted in like the third or fourth rounds, starting, been awesome at safety. Yeah, getting Gonzalez back up front. They've been fantastic. Landry's been great. Williams has been great.

Christian Barmore is back and healthy. He's been awesome. So they've been really, really strong defensively. So I think the Gonzales thing is going to make them a little bit different than what we thought early in the season. So look, I wanted to come on today and bang the table for plus 180 plus 200, pass to make the playoffs. They're minus 200 to make the playoffs.

Because their schedule is so easy. The schedule is insane. It's, you know, just the next next little run by itself. I mean, I've highlighted it a little bit, but just over the next handful of weeks. On the road, they got three straight in the road last night at New Orleans, at Tennessee. Okay. If you're going to have back-to-back road games here, it's going to be the Saints and then on the road for, you know, Vrable revenge game in Tennessee. A legit revenge game, right?

We just saw Steph Diggs revenge game. Vrable's going to want to, like, turn the screws on that ownership group. Then they go home for Cleveland and Atlanta. Atlanta's feisty, but I feel like Atlanta's feisty at home. They go at Tampa Bay, tough, tough game. But then it's the Jets, Bengals, Giants for the buy. I mean, they're going to be favored in six of those seven or seven of those eight games. The only place they're going to be a dog is going to be at Tampa Bay.

And they can go to Tampa Bay and win, but they're going to be a dog at Tampa Bay who's going to probably be more healthy at that point and probably comfortably three, three and a half point favorites. But, I mean, to come out of this seven. seven-game stretch, eight-game stretch and not be at least six and two would feel somewhat of a disappointment. And think about the Pittsburgh game. They should have, you know, should have not play with their food there. That one's going to matter. This Pittsburgh's going to have a real chance to meet the playoffs. And they lost the Raiders, like pretty bad week on. Yeah. A Raiders team that

I think we think it's pretty bad at this point. So maybe it just took a while for the Patriots to get their footing. Maybe this is a, I don't know, like I don't want to say this was like a flash in the pan. They beat the Panthers dominant, like just a dominant winning against the Panthers. you go to Buffalo and win like that. I think that's pretty much a statement there as well. So, yeah, I don't know. Like I want to buy them here. I don't know.

Is there anything actionable at this point, you think? Or not really? I mean, minus 200 stuff. I'm not really. Yeah. No. I mean, and no one should be. It's not a fair.

It's not a fair price. I mean, the only thing that like part of the Patriots handicap is the schedule. Well, guess who also has a like insanely easy schedule, the bills. So like paths to win the division. not a real viable bat on the bills are going to be a wagon and they're going to win that division so yeah there's really no there's really no piece here on on pro pat stuff i'm i guess pat's to reach the divisional rounds so you're telling me that they make the playoffs and win a playoff game i mean never bet this price or this market really it's plus 240 it's the only

thing with a plus like i don't even know who that game's against right like there's definitely going to be better ways for us to to make that return on the same thought process than to lay 240 for three months yeah because you always run the risk of like running to some like red hot wild card team or something like baltimore yeah right like exactly like yeah like you yeah like you run into one of those teams where it's like oh mar's back everyone's healthy and yeah they're actually the best team but they're the seven seed because they just started the year off one one and six you know yeah no shot no shot at all all right anything to jump out to you for uh you touched on obviously all the teams here we have a monday night football game we'll take a look at some

sharp stack here but any early bets that jump out to you here for week six yeah the well yeah i mean i think browns could be interesting against the steelers a little bit here broncos minus seven on the road against the jets i think is great just continue fading the jets i don't like you know seven's a good number there uh broncos are a way better team like they're going to give justin fields hell i mean it's going to be a brutal one for him uh colts against the cardinals i think that's one of my favorites six and a half should probably be i think flat seven would make a lot of sense in my mind um pats against the saints three and a half i mean is that too much not enough i like it but i mean i'm trying to trying to tone it down here connor so uh but i mean i feel like they're they're better

than that cowboys minus three against the panthers i think could be interesting i don't know that's like maybe bryce plays well against the cowboys i don't know it could be like it just feels like a weird like i don't know maybe you can play well against a team that's just sitting back and hanging out um yeah i wish that total was lower because i think it would be a great overspot in the market obviously he's uh agrees with us and i think that's jumped out a little bit too because it was not i don't think it was that high let me see where we were yeah it's 46 and a half which would have been a fantastic number in the markets the markets the markets are 15 point favorites against the bengals that's hilarious um and i don't necessarily disagree with it um but

yeah i'd just say those are probably my favorite so far um anything to stand out to you no i like some of those two i think it's a good bounce back spot for you know buffalo on monday night again you know falcons coming off of a buy but uh i think the bills falcons are so weird i don't know really what to make up from down for that team but i think it's a a good spot for them i think the titans are bad the titans raiders game is so gross like i don't want to back the raiders you know, more than three. That game is... I mean, Titans are not doing that game.

All right. That's, the Raiders are kind of like, I don't know if lame ducks, they're word, but they're kind of, they feel like they're in that territory. And the Titans are coming off a big win. So it's either a letdown spot for them and they also look like shit or they come out and maybe it's like, you know,

this is the turning point of their season and they end up win another game. Who knows? Like under 41 seems kind of interesting, even though both defenses are not very good. I don't have much confidence in either offense either. Yeah. I want to see the Seattle Injury Report.

I like Seattle on the road against Jacksonville here, especially if they're going to get a half point or something. I just take money line, to be honest. But I want to know that Spoon and Love are back. And then I'll take Jacksonville, I'll take Seattle against Jacksonville in a short week. That would be when I like. Yeah, the Browns, I don't know what to make of that to travel.

Because it feels like a spot where I look at the look-aheads, reference that just seemed like could be a good spot for for cleveland just on paper but then you think you know the browns off or you know browns travel from europe back to the steelers on the road coming off of a buy like it seems like a situational nightmare um but again the market's kind of responded there too it's it has backed cleveland which is six and a half now we're down to four and a half and five out there too so but i'm with you also on denver denver minus 13 and a half they batch up so well right you just you take certain put them on gair wilson and then just figure the rest of it out blitz your face off yeah literally and it's does yeah bring the house literally

i mean and they should have success against that defense too i mean you can donate sudden to sauce if you really want to it's just fine which i would guess would probably happen right or no i thought they were going to do that against philly and then they threw you know through 10 times against Quentin Mitchell, like, caught nine to ten balls. Like, Sutton just might be a dude. I don't know. Yeah, it's true. Yeah, I don't know.

So, yeah, it's like they're going to move the ball, probably score 20, 24. Jats, I don't even know if they score 13. So, yeah, that's tough. I mean, the late window is tough, man. We have three games in late window, Tennessee Riders, Bengals, Packers, 15-point favorites. Then we hopefully get a game out of the Niners' bucks. look they want that to be the marquee game of the week they're going to get it they better give us a game because otherwise it's going to be a long three and a half hours with crap football

because it's ready for you know lions lions chiefs lions chiefs is another one that's really fascinating i want to see how the chiefs look tonight would love zavier worthy to be 100% i feel like if the chiefs are back a little bit lion's secondary is really kind of taking it on the chin here if we are going to see a chief team that can really dial up a little bit down the field could be a spot for the chiefs to to play pretty well i would typically think i would like the lions getting points here but i don't know i feel like these injuries on the detroit secondary problem yeah i i think the lions would be the move here but it's like this chief scene like if if worthy's healthy fully healthy like they're they played so well last week and i don't

want to fully discount that like they could be another spot here if worthy's fully healthy that they crush um but i think this lines the lions are just more well-rounded at this point so for sure it's kind of a weird stayaway maybe just like a enjoy the game kind of you know like sit back and not have a bunch of bets on it yeah all right perfect anything else for the people any of the futures any awards anything you want to touch on and try to touch some of those in here while we're going but uh if you have any other specific takeaways no i think we hit on everything i don't know i had some monday football sharp stack stuff real quick yeah pop it up yeah yeah we got a couple of uh a couple of bets here that i think are interesting it's from our

plus a V tool. Travis E.TN for Monday Night Football, 65 and a half minus 112 on Draft Kings. Seeing some pretty heavy juice here on Pinnacle and other books. I mean, way lower on other spots too. I think someone might have played the over and that's kind of where I got like steamed up to 65. And I mean, usually this means the slower books are just like where it used to be. So that's interesting. Some Travis Hunter stuff like, I don't know, he's been barely, basically barely used on offense. Well, it's like 60% something like that.

and the whole passing game has been terrible but Sharper books haven't closer like 29 so again a couple yards extra there that I think is decent and then Tyquan Thornton stuff I'm hesitant to play anything like I'm waiting for some pregame reports on Xavier Worthy because he went from like a full 80% 90% guy like the last couple weeks then Worthy came back he ran like 36% of the routes last week

so yeah I would guess the under is probably the right side right now but if Worthy's like limited then Tycoon Thornton's gonna play like 50% of the snap and probably be pretty heavily involved. So for me, that's kind of a stayaway right here. And then Parker, Washington one, I think is interesting, too, because Diami Brown is back. So when Diombe Brown was in, he was playing, like,

35% of the snaps. So I think that one's kind of interesting, too. But, yeah, rip through those. And other than that, you know, odd screen, prop screen, Arb tool, pickem tool. We got a Middles tool company. in like I think this week so maybe yeah it'll be that'll be pretty slick it's like instead of like it'll be like it's kind of looks like the arbitrage tool of instead of arbs it'll be like finding

the biggest middle like yardage wise or um stuff there so it's pretty cool can I wait that's awesome yeah I'd like going through the out screen and look at the middles I did a little bit of that yesterday in the morning with uh yeah with my time and yeah just try to look for some middles to pop through there to show some people because yeah I can just look at the best odds and then kind of combed through it different obviously for games but you're you're yeah you're just trying to look at the best odds and then kind of combed but you look at the prop screen, you can kind of go through a little hard now because we don't have it.

Yeah, so just sometimes, even when you have tighter bands or lower numbers, it's just a little bit easier to find some DCDV. There was like when Sean was making it for the college football one, there was like something that were like 10 to 15 yard middles. Like there was like, I mean,

massive. I was like this is huge. Like it would be like 55 in one book and like 60 something on the other. I was like, what's going on here? This is crazy. Yeah, it's worth taking out. So that's,

I'm excited for that. So free seven-day trial, remember, take advantage, 4.4.com slash plans, MTL 50 for 50% off your first month. Check it out. Let us know if you have any questions. We'd love to get your feedback at the end of the seven-day trial or while you're, you know, using it. You know, obviously we want to continue like Connor said.

We're adding stuff now. So like it's not like a done product. If we find some ways to make it better or make some additions, we're obviously very much open to that too. So we'd love to get your feedback. Check that out. So, all right, come back on Friday. move the line prop drop show 3 p.m. Eastern, move the line,

wherever you listen to podcast, 4-4 live on the YouTube channel. We did that Millie Parley this week. I figured about it, Connor. So, all right. Appreciate everyone hanging out with us. Appreciate you guys. Again, feedback on the new format on a Monday.

We'd appreciate it too. I thought that was pretty crisp and felt like it was good. So let's know if I'm wrong. For Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody.