Move The Line - Move The Line - Week 7 Betting Recap & Week 8 Early Predictions!

Episode Date: October 20, 2025

Join us as we analyze matchups, key stats, and betting lines to help you make the smartest picks for Week 8. From underdog upsets to sure-fire favorites, we've got the insights you need to start your betting season strong. Don't miss out – subscribe now for your Week 8 betting guide and get ready to win big! If you want to check out SharpStack, you can get a 7-day Free trial at 4for4.com/plans. SharpStack subscribers get everything at 4for4, including all the picks from our staff, every article, and every tool for betting, DFS, and your fantasy leagues, as well. Promo code MTL is good for 25% off, so check it out today.  Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome to move of the line presented by Sharpstack. I'm Ryan Noon and joined here as always by Connor Allen. I'm going to unpack a little bit of week seven. What we saw what matters, what doesn't matter? Take an early look at week eight. Maybe touch on some Monday night football stuff. We've got two games here tonight. See if Sharpstack's got anything for us.

Maybe some futures. Connor, what's going on, bud? Yeah, not much. I had a great week of props that felt good I'm 4 and 0 so far which is like pretty low volume

but I got two plays pending for tonight it sucks because I had two more plays written down that I was like probably going to release it was kind of on the fence about both one

was Michael Carter under it was a I don't know one other one so I was like man I'm like just having an awesome week and so yeah hopefully that keeps rolling tonight you know 6 and 0

sounds a lot better than 4 and 2 but at least we're guaranteed a positive week far yeah i love that yeah i had the same i part of it was like i thought i had released something that i didn't release yep i had one i had a third one i even mentioned on the show i have three ready to release you did and what happened was i got distracted with something that i played immediately after the show that's for tonight and that messed up my release and then buddy ed fang had reached out to me and i had something else that i already written up early in the week that

moved uh, Cortland, Cortland Sutton over 54 and a half receiving yards. So I, I told that, I'm like, you know what? It was like 57 and a half, 58 and a half. I still kind of liked it. And I have it, Fred gave it to him for his newsletter for Saturday morning. Well, between me texting it to Ed, Friday nights and Saturday morning before he goes to release it, it had moved another, like, five yards.

It was 63 and a half widely available, 64 in some spots. And I'm like, dude, I'm like, Ed, you know, I got it at 54 and a half. I was comfortable playing 56 and a half. I'm like, you know what? I like the play. If he goes over, he's probably not like tiptoe over.

He didn't. He cleared over comfortably. I had the bonix was the other one that I was referencing that I shared with you. I'm like, here's what I had written up for the show on, on Friday didn't get released. I had Tyler Warren over 58.5 written up did not release. Played it.

So I'm sorry subscribers. I had a decent week. It would have been better. you know so it's the silent killers you know the ones you don't get to share with everybody so yeah we drop a little bit in the chat here and there like uh you know some occasional stuff like hey we're playing this we're playing this hey jeline uncorrelated yeah that that's hit what was eight to one 10 to one that's awesome no 18 18 18 80 yeah oh my god i mean we're on a heater is this two two out of last three weeks we hit it uncorrelated yeah so i mean i mean

I don't feel that bad. You know, the taggle prop for Sunday night came in for people that asked. You know, said I'm paid Jesse Bates. I know that came in. So yeah,

we're okay. I just feel bad. But also, you know, like when we spend the time doing the research to do the write-up, when you have that work done, and no one reads it,

no one sees it. But that feels, and then it wins. That feels bad. So, yeah. So, hey,

overall, good week seven, not done. Got some stuff going tonight. We'll see what sharp stack has maybe touch on some of that as well so uh really want to encourage people again if you have not already taken advantage of sharp stacks free seven day trial i don't know i'd be honest jump in the chat let me know why you haven't i would love to hear from you at us on twitter

at ryan noonan at connor allen nfl like what prohibits you from taking advantage of something for free for seven days is this just not something that you would ever use again not like the cheapest of tools though again we have like a ton of promos out there if you get it for like really really really really really cheap um i'm just yeah curious i would love to hear from you if not 404.4.com slash plans and sign up that's it seven day free trial it's a suite of betting tools including our evy tool the top down one that we're going to show here later that we've talked about a lot but again arbs middles odd screens games and props lots of stuff and again like not just for football

It's feeding all sports. So there's market-based projections in there as well. So if you're really grinding in college football, it's going to give you bets. Like I went three and one on college football this week. Just, again, didn't watch any of the games that I bet on. And, you know, really didn't know any of the guys that I bet on. And, you know, that's okay.

It's a bankroll builder. So check it out for seven days. Let us know if you have any questions. promo code MTL 50, 50% off. Excuse me, your first month. It's a good deal. We're going to have better, more deals coming. That's a pretty damn good deal, 50% off for a month.

So come back on Friday, obviously, for Prop Drop. Myself, Connor, High Slop, Props, same time, 3 p.m. Eastern, right here. Move the line where we listen to podcasts, 4-4-4 live here on the YouTube channel. All right. Anything big picture you want to touch on before we jump through the games here? I don't think anything too much. I mean, like, I don't know if we want to talk about the Unk Bowl at all from Thursday. with Steelers, Bengals popping off.

That was crazy. Sure. Yeah, offended by that. Someone older than both quarterbacks. Like, we're seeing, like, AI images of these guys is, like, literally 70 years old. It's like, they bull just cleared 40. Okay? What, like, what are we doing here?

So I felt I personally attacked. But what are your thoughts? As a young. It was, yeah, it was just one of those things where, like, in hindsight, kind of made sense. And I wanted to play some unders from this game, but I couldn't really figure out a way because, like, the Steelers defense, like, yeah, they played well in certain situations, but I was, I just like, there's something off about them specifically. And then the Bengals even has been so bad. Like, I figured that the Steelers would be able to move the ball

kind of no matter what. So if like, and we've seen Flacco occasionally, like, but have some pushback. Like, you know, occasionally figure it out and like, he figured out by just throwing the ball, Jamar Chase, basically every play, which is, it's pretty crazy to see. honestly it was it was awesome and then you just like throw a random bomb to t higgins like if they you know started bracketing him or like you know just bumping him and they put another guy on him like you just throw a bomb to t higgins and figure it out so cool to see i mean i don't know if the bengals can stay competitive like this all the time but i don't know i don't see necessarily why not if like flaco can play like fine it doesn't even play this well just like fine yeah he told us

he was going to do this so in hindsight it felt really bad like looking at the chase lines and not actually taking a step forward and doing anything with them personally right because it made sense they were light and he's like yeah i you know in terms of he mentioned the week before like figuring out the offense and learning the playbook and he's like i think i'm going to just throw it to jemar chase a lot and t higgins is pretty good too so like he kind of told on himself and like shame on the steelers like that also i think is going to be matchup specific like to not adjust whatsoever i felt i don't know i don't understand i'm sure that they did try to do some stuff differently but like the guy was still wide open too frequently right so figure it out because at no

at no point is like blacko moving off of his first target just felt like he's feeding whoever he wants here right if he decided pre-snap that the matchable look good for higgins yeah he's going to take that shot otherwise you know you had chase working guys all over the field in the slot out wide it didn't matter so yeah bad loss for the steelers who could have again taken an advantage of, you know, the Ravens on a buy week, separated themselves more. Instead, they brought themselves back to the pack as we kind of turn the page on the Ravens kind of getting back to being healthy. So there's a missed opportunity.

And not something that I think either of us were buying into. Don't think that we really believe that the Steelers are legit. Like, the defense is just a problem. Like, it's just, it's not, they're not getting home enough. Flackard has a really good job getting the ball quickly at this point. Like he doesn't want to get hit, but he just like he's one, two, three. It's out. So even though there were some offensive line challenges in front of him with this offensive line,

like he does not hold on in the football. And that worked that mitigated the one defensive advantage that the Steelers would have had is the ability to get pressure. So yeah, the back end's not good enough. And yeah, I'm just not a believer. So we go more on the Steelers when we get to them. Where are they at this week? Oh, Green Bay, Sunday Night Football, that's right.

It should be very interesting in Pittsburgh. yeah so yeah uh packers only three point favorites i know packers i mean that was a tough spot i mean i just saw the news too you saw on saturday like they're still on the tarmac and they're like they're they hadn't left the airport and it was like past the time that they would have arrived in arizona you just know that situation's never good and you felt like you had jacups as a real game time decision like while people i think want to like dock them a little bit for not running away against jacobo reset and the cardinals like i want to give them credit for going on the road and under less than ideal situation and at least getting the dub like that's all the matters at the

end of the day they need that dub and that division especially since it's all jam packed so yeah i like i would lean packers for sure to be honest you know it seems like we're moving to three and a half we've already moved there in some places yeah yeah well three and a half DK. Penny still has like a Juice 3, Bookmaker, Juice 3. Caesar's, yeah, again, like, either Juice 3 or 3 and a half. I don't know.

I mean, this Packers team is tough. Like, they kind of like, you know, with the whole Cardinals game, like, it just took them a little while to get going. They pulled it out, but it wasn't pretty. Like, this wasn't quite the, isn't quite the dominant team that we thought, you know, earlier from the season.

Yeah, without a doubt. I mean, I think that's also just always the Jordan love experience. And there's just, you know, they when the deep shots are clicking and you know jacobs is popping and feeling good like he's dealing with both a true sickness illness and an ankle injury and was still very much involved not to his his normal degree but i don't know they got the win so yeah they didn't win by margin they didn't cover but um i i i like them in that spot so um all right bus through starting london 35 The seven, the Rams beat the Jaguars.

We were there. We've been, again, we've been on the anti-jags thing here for a bit, just not a believer, especially of being propped up defensively with just, like, insane turnover variance, 99-yard pick sixes and things that are swinging games. Just did not seem sustainable. And George Lawrence just isn't that guy, unfortunately.

Kudos to the Rams. Like, I think it's really impressive for Sean McVeigh. when I see the stat they had run they ran 13 personnel so one back three tight ends on 24 their 59 place they had done that six times in the last four years

that's awesome that's insane I love that because I love the coach's mindset to being like hey no this is this is what we need to do to win this game with the guys that we have currently instead of like no you know what we run 11 and this is what it's going to look like because this is the guys we have now It's like, no, we need to kind of look at the opponent and look at this dynamic currently, and they whip their ass.

Yeah, that's what happens. And you'll have Kobe Parkinson, Terrence Ferguson, and Tyler Higby, all, you know, contributing here. Whereas, like, Jordan Whittington, 2-2 out well, just, you know, nothing, like airballs. So it makes a lot of sense. And this game, particularly, you mentioned it, like the Jaggs defense, coming into the game, they're a second in EPA, but 22nd if you remove turnovers. So not a good defense, just got a lot of turnovers. It's what we'll talk about in a second.

It's kind of what I tell people about the Bears. Like, the Bears are not a good defense, but they just like are coming up with these clutch turnovers and surviving on these, like, you know, do-or-die plays. They're sending Joaquin Britsker, like, just like all the time. You see this like in the game? Like he's just basically like, he's playing edge half the game now. It's like, I don't know if you saw that. They were just like lined up like seven, eight guys there and then just like sending back to

and then like, you know, dropping Randy Betts, which I think is awesome. I think that's like a cool, but it like leads to way more volatility with their plays. Like they'll let up an easy 40-yard touchdown or, you know, not to nowhere, the safety will come and have a pick or like almost pick. Because they almost had, they should have another pick too where they just like ran into each other. So anyways, it's like, it is interesting that I don't think that that's like stable is my point. So like the Jags. And that came, I mean, chickens came home to roost in this one.

The one thing they seem to have some stability in is there. continuously one of the most penalized teams every week. And that's just like, it's really hard to sustain these types of situations, especially with the turnover variance when you're getting eight to 12 turnovers or eight to 12 penalties for, you know, 60 to 100. They had 13 penalties for 120 yards in this game. Like you just can't do that. Like that's, you know, just not how you're going to set yourself off to win.

So these, both games, I think are correlated a little bit. And I had very much easy hindsight sitting on the couch as this game start. And it's like, oh, yeah, there's the Leon Cohen, Sean McVeigh dynamic, right? Like coached on his staff a couple different times, right? Like he was there, went to Kentucky, came back, was on his staff, then went to Tampa. So he's very much part of the McVeigh tree. And then the Chicago game is the Dennis Allen thing. Like Dennis Allen, who knows the weaknesses for Spencer Rattler more than his last year's head coach?

like it's Dennis Allen who was playing a very different style then that's kind of the thing they were opportunistic aggressive man blitzing and that's kind of what they did in that game so those things make sense in hindsight you're like why isn't that why did I miss that in the handicap that that makes sense totally lazy bum so buy week for the Rams and the Jags so we will not see them here I'll transition that game 2614 for Chicago as you mentioned they're getting a little bit more healthy. T.J. Edwards is back. Juan Brisker was out for most of the year last year.

That was a big problem. He just could not get back from a concussion that really ended like those last three months. And then obviously, Kyle Gordon, who I think is an impactful addition back into that lineup. And Spencer Rattler, I think, has been better than I think we thought coming into this year. But sometimes it's just going to have these games where it looks completely overmatched and not really an NFL quarterback. this is one of those games i kind of think that his time might be just like over like what i i mean they're they're one in six like where's tyler shug like i mean it's not like i mean rattle hasn't been like atrocious you know like to the point like he hasn't been atrocious he really

hasn't no but like generally you just see teams like kind of make these switches because they're like all right well we maybe it's you know the mystery box of tyler should could be way better than we think we just have no idea you know like it's it happens occasionally i don't see much downside i mean you're you're you're losing every game basically anyways so i don't know i think that they should be making a switch here pretty soon but maybe i'm wrong who knows maybe they just maybe he's really bad we have no idea either we're outsiders and we didn't see any of the you know warm like training camp stuff or how he reacts in the inside the building we don't know any of that so yeah yeah i mean data you know we have no idea you have no idea you're right though i mean

It does feel like a spot where you want to take a shot and let's see what you got. Maybe it's that bad, right? If he's just so much worse in practice, then he's like, well, you kind of keep telling yourself that Rattler hasn't been that bad. You know, so they lost Kendra Miller for the year, the ACL. I think that sucks because I think he's been pretty good for them. And we're starting to kind of take on some more work, interested to see how that kind of plays itself out. But again, this team is down bad. They host Tampa Bay.

So again, Tampa Bay playing tonight here on Monday Night Football, six and a half points, six in some spots, 47 and a half is the total there. So tough back-to-back road games for the Bucks, second there in the division. Again, you know, going from Tampa to New Orleans is not a massive travel, but it's definitely something. But again, the short week, too, is impactful. I'd like to have that extra day in your bed, but you don't get it. So it sucks for you. But again, you got to fly first class in a private plane and sleep in a nice hotel. so see if you can figure that out bucks sucks to be you uh but yeah i don't have unnecessarily

a lean on that game part of it is also we don't really know not even what happens today in the game but mostly like just the health of the bucks right like Mike evans abuka i don't know about bucky irvin like just there's just some some questions in the bucks in terms of handicapping ahead of time oh yeah totally yeah the bucks are bucks are wild so that's i mean it's another tough spot for the saints it's like i don't know when it's going to necessarily open up for them um but you know they're a bad team and what was interesting though so we're watching this big bears saints game and like the bears running game the last two weeks has been awesome and true but against teams that like are not bad efficiency wise against the run so like the commanders were like a

i don't know fringe top 10ish unit like on a success rate basis and the bears just walled you know they crushed them and then the saints say like they let saints let up a lot of yards because they're always losing but like on a per down basis they're i mean they're 13th and success right like during the week that's that's not bad like you know they're decent and the under swift runs for 125 yards Kyle munung guy ran for another 80 like and they I think it's with the changes that the bears made to their offensive line um I think you know like made some decisions during the buy maybe and like you know kind of upgraded things there is finally clicking I don't know what it is but the running game we talked about it like after week two we're like if the bears can't play

defense and they can't run the ball you're basically telling Caleb Williams go win games which he's not good enough to do yet, which is still, I think, all true. But if you can run the ball and the defense is getting healthier and playing a little bit better, you don't need Caleb to win games all the time, just like not be, not messed up that bad, you know, and just like, and maybe make a couple of good plays here and there, which is much more doable, I think, given its current, like, you know, status and where he's at. So I don't know.

I mean, the Bears are not a good four-and-two team, but, I mean, they can, if they continue to get healthier and they can keep running the ball, like, they can definitely compete with, like, some of the best teams, I think, in the NFC. Caleb's not turning it over. So at least got to give him credit for that, right? Like he's still likes to take some shots. He's they're aggressive down the field, but he's not putting it into like high leverage positions

where it's, you know, 50, 50 balls or turnover worthy plays, things like that. They're down compared to last year. So, yeah, I mean, there's a tough spot, I guess, this week to be interesting to see. They get the Ravens first time off the buy and, you know, getting, I believe we'll see that we end up getting Lamar Jackson back. They are basically a touchdown dog. Six and a half, there's, yeah, six and a half.

There's some well-priced sevens out there, a total between 50 and a half and 51-half, which is pretty hefty. Any early liens or do you want to kind of hear, I would want to hear more for sure about what's going on with the Ravens and who's coming back for sure and how's everyone feeling? So it's interesting because Lamar Jackson did not practice today. It's Monday. First day out of the practice out of the buy.

He didn't practice. I mean, again, that doesn't mean he's not going to play, but it's not a good start, I would say. So would you say six right now? Yeah, seeing six and a half, there's some seven pinnacles seven minus 100 bookmaker, seven minus 110, Circus six and a half minus 120. I mean, I think this is almost a full Lamar line. Maybe I think it's a full Lamar line. Like, say Lamar is 100% in, like I think seven and a half I would be, would be, I can't imagine.

I mean, even that, I think you probably get some buyback on the bears. so like i don't i don't mind taking some speculative sevens if like maybe lamar isn't 100 percent uh we've talked about it before too like his legs are the most crucial aspect of his game yeah i mean so i don't know i mean and then the raven's defense is still you know a problem so i don't know that's that's interesting i think there's some like yeah there's a couple of sevens it's kind of lingering out there like stale like i mean bet rivers is a seven i've definitely want the seven and like if you get no lamar i mean this is probably a pick at worst right um yeah yeah look uh like we got to find out about roquan smith nanda anembuke is not coming back that's an impactful

interior defensive line presence for them that plays you know 75% of the snaps is a real pass rush threat from the interior and is a massive human being clogging up offensive linemen from a run stuffing standpoint he's gone for the year uh he's going for the year uh he's he's not coming back so that's a you know that's a problem we're still dealing with questions along you know the uh secondary you know a corner would want to know about roquan like i said so yeah i mean i do agree i think this is a full Lamar line i do think you do see a raven's bump when we got positive Lamar news and i agree with what you said you get some buyback so i think we maybe would see seven's painted you maybe would move up to seven and a half and i think

you'd probably get some teetering there where not people would buy in on the half point so It's an interesting one, for sure, considering what's going on and, you know, a lot of news still to be had there for sure. Yeah. Should be a good game. All right. Cleveland Browns 31 Miami Dolphins 6. Look, it is, as we record here, currently 226 central time on Monday. We do not have any Mike McDaniels fired news, which I feel like it would have happened.

Like, it feels weird to do it late Monday afternoon or, like, in the middle of the week. And at this point, I really wonder what it would take for him to lose the job in season. Because getting absolutely curbstops by another awful football team didn't get it done. So one win, two, a bad, three more picks. I didn't hear him blame anyone else for any of these this time. He might have. I just didn't hear it. So I just, I don't want to speak out of turn, just didn't hear it.

But not, not great one for a touchdown. We just had nothing and it looked like they kind of gave up in the second half. There just wasn't any, you know, no dogs, no dogs at all on this club. So in Browns did what we expected. The weather kind of was a little bit overstated as we thought it would be. But you could see you, you parlayed some of the, you know, big time unders and a nice little ticket there for sure. so well done by you playing on some of the longest unders on the longest and stuff like that

was beautiful beautiful ticket so any browns dolphins thoughts here for you I don't think there's a ton to take away it was like the game played out exactly as expected at least for my opinion I really did I don't know like it was very strange because usually you get these like faux weather games of just like oh it's going to be a crazy storm

and like it was I mean definitely some rain and like some wind but it wasn't like you're watching you're like oh these guys can't even move like this is like crazy um but they they didn't matter cleveland's defense you know played well enough and it impacted them enough that like two couldn't move the ball um the browns i mean just handed to judkins and hope and you know the defense set them up in a good enough spot like a couple times that they didn't have to do much i mean 25 carries for 84 yards for judkins is not like a you know and he had a 46 yard run so wait so you say a lot of it tied up on one big run yeah yeah yeah

which he like bounced off you know a couple guys and he's like pinballed his way there and it's it's so crazy to me that like still he like didn't practice at all just comes in was a week two i think like week two and it was just like the instant workhorse instant belkow they're like yeah we don't care about dylan samson or drum for it anymore we're just and to be fair he's playing really well i mean he's i think he's pretty good so um yeah it's working i don't think there's much takeaway honestly defense is great from cleveland it's all everything we Dylan Gabriel continues to be Dylan Gabriel. I don't know.

I don't think we know much about him after playing the dolphins in this weather, right? Yeah, he's probably not good. But I don't know, in these type of scenarios, like it felt like such a great spot for the Browns. I actually worried too that just the weather would like mess it up a little bit or just felt like on paper a great spot. Yeah.

Yeah, they dominated the front. You know, the Dolphins offensive line and no shot. Yeah, rough. Miami on the road in Atlanta for week eight seven and a half and eight out there totals around 44 and a half 45

in Cleveland on the road against the AFC East leading New England Patriots. Any dolphins, falcons thoughts seven and a half deep? That's a lot of points. I mean, I don't like the dolphins. The Falcons evens played so well

we can get there in a second too, but like that's like I don't know, it's probably right. I'm just not sure I'm excited to lay that. not excited to late either but there's also no shot that I'm taking the dolphins like we're just it's a sinking ship like you know it's

you're clutching that on Sunday and you're like as soon as the game starts you like why the hell is this in my my allotment for the week this is a bad bad spot to be in yeah it's like you I mean it's almost like the the Eagles and still like the last couple weeks prior to this week was just like

the vibes are bad like you're you're attaching yourself to a team that like has catastrophic downside on a week-to-week basis of like they just give up like that's like fully within the range of outcomes every basically every week but they're like yeah i don't really want to be here anymore yeah two was actually benched in this game uh so we'll see you know again not an injury not a you know it's i mean i guess part of it is like let's make sure he doesn't get hurt in this game um couldn't yours came in but um i don't know the mighty daniel presser after talking about it continued to cause

to lose we have to evaluate like i don't know just i don't even know what to make of that but um falcons are nothing for me so not great uh i don't have a lot of takeaways to this next one either 31 zip chiefs writers and again i it's 31 to zero in an NFL game and it wasn't even that close and then there's just a wild thing to say they absolutely dominate in this football game in a way that I don't think we just really see games get dominated. Teams, it just doesn't happen like this. There's a little pushback. Not that the game becomes like contested them,

but it's at the same time, like at some point you show a little bit of a fight. This reminded me of 2007 Patriots where sometimes they just would steal the will from the other team and like just absolutely destroy you. 42 first half plays for the Chiefs, 21 first downs. They had 21 first downs and the first.

first half. The Raiders ran 30 plays in the game. Dominant performance. Rishi Rice is back. I was directionally correct. Rishie Rice is going to be heavily involved. 10 targets, seven catches, two touchdowns. Didn't get there on yards for me. So any takeaways from a dysfunctional Raiders team and a buzzsaw chief's team? I mean, no, they ran 30 total plays. It's the lowest, fewest amount of plays since 2002 in a single game for a team. I spend time projecting plays every week. Spent a lot of time with it. It's an important piece of what I do.

I just can't really ever get past. Like I think 54 is like the lowest I've ever put in a projection. And even that, like sometimes I'll like regress to the mean, which is, you know, closer to 60. So like that's it's really, really, really, really tough to do. 30 is insane to me. Like it's just so insane. Crazy. I mean, just outrageous.

Like if I. see a game that has like the plays in the 40s for a team i'm like oh that's that's what we lost the over on that guy like for sure way you're going to win if you know you have 40 plays if you have 30 plays like we had at ashti gente under i mean he's never i mean he wasn't going to get there even with probably 10 whatever 10 12 carries he just had no chance i mean you run 30 plays and you're just completely cooked so uh i think gino was bench too so that's you know yeah he's been playing really bad. I don't know. We're ready to have the Gino conversation because he's been pretty good for a while. He hasn't been playing well. The Raiders taking Genti over another tackle at six overall

not only cost me money in the draft, but also is costing them on the field. A lot of good options out there and they blew it. So. Yeah, it's roughening they gave Gino the bag. You know, And I'm not like a long-term, you know, deal necessarily, but, you know, real money for a couple of years. So a real tough scenario for them to be in. They are also on a buy Chiefs Monday night hosting the commanders. I mean, I'll be honest, probably my favorite bet on the board right now. This is not going to be, I mean, Jane Daniels is not playing in that football game. He just, it's got a hamstring injury.

Like, no one's, again, another running quarterback with a hamstring injury, left the game. It's Marcus Marriota line to me. I just don't know how you can line it at nine and a half. Fandul, nine and a half, ten and a half in some spots, tens in some spots. I, it's a huge number to lay in the NFL. Give me the Chiefs. Yeah, it's funny because literally right as you said that, we get an underdog update here.

Jane Daniel's answering injury not considered significant or long term, and I don't believe him. They said this about his knee, kept him out of multiple games. Like, I just. That could also be the case. but also he misses this week right yeah totally i mean that's he had an mr so he had an MRI on his hamstring says it's not significant long term but not sure of his status from monday night that came from nicky starts with the j you know i'm talking about like uh i don't know to pronounce their last

name but um good be writer like reputable person so yeah uh yeah i mean look see i guess he has the benefit of having it be monday night either way and it was weird because it's not like you know a hamstring injury typically is just like wall you're running something happens and you get like you know a little bit of a strain this is like a contact injury that like jacked his hamstring uh which is i thought kind of interesting so you know if he goes then it's probably even better to be honest i mean i had how beat up that that team is right now like he's going to be a pocket passer i don't know i like the chiefs i'm comfortable laying the chiefs and feeling like i jumped too early and he plays i don't feel

bad about that. I think chiefs are a good spot. I mean, they're both, I mean, they're your Super Bowl favorite and, you know, for a reason. The, like their offense just feels like back for the first, like this feels like one of the most explosive offenses. I think you put it in our private chat or whatever, our Slack chat about it saying like, you know, it might be time to start blindly betting Mahomes over one and a half passing touchdowns again because they're passing so much. Kreme Hunt went down with an injury that didn't look all that good. I don't know what the status of his, what him was coming out of that. I mean, he's basically dust anyways. But when you have. when you remove one of those guys from the equation,

it's like, it's awesome because they can't just jam him 15 times and, like, move the chains. They might have to do more short throws. So you get Rishi Rice with 10 plus targets already and in three, less than three quarters of play, basically. So because they've yanked Mahomes, like,

I got the notification that they pulled him. And I'm like, it's got to be like the third quarter. There's still three minutes left in the third quarter. I was like, what on earth? Yeah, smart. I get them out. Who cares? And to your point, we touched on it earlier.

commanders still i would say very much a pass funnel right the run defenses is solid uh but you can pick them apart we saw the cowboys do it and you know yeah look we don't love hollywood brown but hollywood brown is your wide receiver three right like with you know juju still like playing i don't know 10 snaps a game randomly like you just it's okay taekwon thornton they took a couple deep shots like all of a sudden it's not hollywood brown's your one It's, you know, Juju and Thornton. It's like those guys all moved because Worthy's back. Rishie Rice is back.

There's so much yak to be had there. You know, I think we've still seen some decent stuff from Travis Kelsey. So if Travis Kelsey doesn't have to be your wide receiver one, he literally could be your fourth pass catcher. Now we're talking about a totally different scenario. The math is really tough for. This is going to be a juggernaut. I mean, this is crazy.

It's like, I mean, they already are. But, like, you know, it's just a tough team to fade down the line, I think. Yeah, you see what happens with their offensive line. Some stuff going on with Josh Simmons. Joanne Taylor got dinged up. Smith did two, I think it'll be okay. So, yeah, we need to make sure they're going to be okay. But, yeah, they're a bus saw.

Your defending Super Bowl champs went on the road and won in Minnesota, 28 to 22 for Philadelphia. We saw a little bit more of an aggressive shot-taking offense here from Philly. you know deep a j brown touchdown davanta smith touchdown felt so bad a subscriber in discord dm me uh early sunday morning like start to sit decision he's like hey i got i'm starting uh three or i got two eagles in the lineup i figured out who we already had he's like i'm back and forth between devante smith and wandell robinson uh and i'm like well i looked at our i grabbed a screenshot from our rankings we had them right next to each other we had smith won ahead

We had Wondale right next to each other Almost the same exact projection For everything I'm like I mean I prefer Devante Looking at this We're pretty close I get why you'd want to break the tie

Right I guess You know you can hit the ceiling and be good Or you know Obviously the floor is much worse And I don't think Wondell played poorly I think Wondell played poorly I think Wondell actually

He had a pretty good game But he did not have the one This game And I don't know Still not get anything from Sequan The offensive line Still not looking great But they look

a little bit better against Carson Wentz and their old quarterback. Yeah, it's, it was one of those lines where you have a lot of weird Eagles stuff baked into it. And then you also have, but then on the other side, you're like, Carson Wentz, you know, like we've seen very little good, good from Carson Wentz so far. And the Eagles are still a talented team. There's still plenty of good players. It's just one of those like weird mojo things, right? Like, you know, you don't want to bet against it.

You don't want to bet on the team with bad mojo, which has been like the Eagles. for a couple weeks of, like, indescribable, you know, play and, like, what's going on. But then, you know, they hit their upside and Jaileners goes for 3.30 and rips of Vikings defense. It's pretty good. That was just sending blitzes. And he just was like, all right, well, I was going to air it out. You know, that's the, and that's the, you know, just try and beat the kind of, like, cover zeros and cover ones that they're sending with, like, the blitzes on just, like, basically deep outside shots. And it worked out when you have A.J. Brown and Devada Smith, you can do that.

You have the luxury to do that. If you have, you know, some bombs on the outside, it's not going to work. the Vikings will pick you apart and yeah i mean carson once continues to be carson once so this is like the all time maybe not the all time but it's definitely a scenario where like box score watching watching the game you look at the box you're like oh carson wince it's fine like through what 313 yards yeah you guys involved if you watch that football game there was bad there was some insane carson wins plays where you're like holy cow i mean there's an interception but even just like really bad passes to open receivers like early in the game

I'm still sweating. And again, like, I had Jordan Addison. He cruised over his line. Yeah, he got me. Early in the game, I'm like, can you, do we please hit him? He's wide open. Like, what was that at the throw? It was so bad.

But he got there. And again, part of that, I was also, I think, moving forward to struggle for the Eagles. Now, that second corner situation is a problem. You know, Dory Jackson continues to get picked on. He left this game and got hurt, like jammed his neck on the tackle with Zach Bon. And they brought in Keely Ringo. And instantly, three. straight plays, chunk gains at Kili Ringo, who, again, if you cannot beat out Dory Jackson,

that tells us all we need to know about Kili Ringo. And then, you know, very much not surprising, Kevin O'Connell was like, yep, where is he? Okay, that's where we're going with this football. And, you know, see what the Giants can do. Hence our week eight matchup is that rematch, Giants on the road in Philly. Seven, six and a half out there is juicy on, it looks like just ESPN, 43, 43, three and a half we'll get to the giants game for sure here but uh any quick takeaways on uh uh giant's eagles i mean i feel like the sharp move is to probably take the eagles here

but i don't know if i want to no i mean stay away from me there's too much stuff going on there this like two teams generally moving in opposite directions right now like the i mean well i guess you know the giants did lose the close one maybe that kind of shifts things but they were just riding higher than high for I don't even know what now we're talking at 11 quarters basically on yeah you know what's going on so started with that eagles game so we'll see this is again second time in the division we don't typically get the quick turnaround like this so this is you know pretty interesting uh from a handicapping standpoint because you're not necessarily i guess out of wherever you were again NFL's your current state is just week by week

So the Eagles obviously have a little bit more momentum after that last game than they did heading into it. All right, we said it was the right side. Didn't feel good. Carolina 13, the Jets 6. Bryce Young, Connor. Nice win on Bryce Young. Hey, it's a win, buddy.

You got right? You took the under-on attempts. Oh, yeah, the win on the attempts. I thought you meant like him winning the game. when I was like, I mean, your bet. Yeah, we got lucky there kind of towards the end because he got yanked because of the ankle injury, which was crazy because it was actually we were going to lose the under,

we had under 29 and a half attempts. We were definitely going to lose because Dalton comes in a seven attempts. So, you know, the math there does not check out. But the reason is that the Jets just couldn't stay on the field. Like they just, like, couldn't run plays. So like the Panthers just had the ball for forever early in the game. Yeah, Panthers ran 70 plays. which is crazy, you know, it's like, it was pretty nuts.

But, yeah, the Jets were basically just dead. I mean, this team sucks. They bench Justin Fields. They, I don't know if they're going to roll with Tyrod this week. I think that maybe I'm crazy. I think if we get any Garrett Wilson stuff ever back, if we get more of these, like, Jets lines at like discounts, I think their values.

Like, I think Tyrod can move the ball better than Justin Fields can, at least on a play a way basis. Comes in. It does for 126 here. yards in like a half. Justin Fields had six for 12 to 46. What was it? Three weeks ago when he came in for a quarter,

three for like 100 yards and a quarter against the Bill's defense where Justin Fields had 27 yards and three quarter. I don't think Tyro Taylor is good, but he can get it done, like enough. You know, they're still going to be terrible, but like prop-wise, I think there's a good, an interesting buying point here coming up. At least willing to take the shots, right? Like, that's a big piece of it. Just be willing to take the shots.

No one else is willing to take the shots. I mean, or at least the field seems terrified to let it loose. So, yeah, again, not a great win. Like you said, a win is a win. So the Panthers won. They have momentum at 4 and 3. That's crazy. That's like the Bears, 4 and 2.

Like, I mean, this is worse. This is for sure worse, I think. It is. The Panthers team is major fraudulent at 4 and 3. Yeah, look, they took advantage of, you know, good win against Dallas. Miami win, I think, is definitely, definitely a soft one there. You know, almost had that win in Arizona. So, like, they have a real shot.

They could have been five and two, and they end in that comeback. Yeah, it's not a lot of taking ways. And we'll be interested to see what happens there, quarterback moving forward. Let's see, we have Jets are on the road against the Bengals. They are six and a half point dogs, 44 and a half. again, interested to see what your thoughts are on, is that a Tyron line? Or we, you know, we'd be throwing out some money at six and a half on, on Flacko? This is crazy.

The Bengals with Joe Flacco, Sabbath point favorites. Can you hear me? Hello? Oh, I'm like, hey, Connor, should we bet on Joe Flacco? You didn't want to say anything. Yeah, I think we're good. No, I'm not bad. on Joe Flacko's a seven-point favorite against the Jets?

I mean, this is, this is, it's not crazy because the Jets are so bad, but like, this is wild to me. I don't know. I get it. Is it a tie rod line? Is it a field? I don't know if there's like a, what would they even make the point spread difference on them? I'm like, yeah, that's what I was asking when it was freezing there.

Do you think this is a tie rod line or is this a field line? Some, I'm curious. What do you think that would be? I would just like half point, maybe one point difference either way. between the two, depending on how they have them. I mean, Fields has been so bad that I don't think it matters. Seven point favorites, I mean, six and a half in some spots. Like, the problem is the Jets, like secondary pieces outside of sauce have been just really,

really bad. So, like, it's like, they get dinged up too. I don't know how severe his injury is, but I know he at least left for part of that game. So. Yeah. I don't know. I think, I mean, maybe the angle is the right side. The more that I'm looking at it, I'm like, I don't know.

maybe it's too much recency bias of watching them you know keep up with a somewhat real team and the Steelers but if you remember you know Justin Fields did something pretty similar in week one against them yeah I think six and a half is interesting but yeah I'm not dying to I'm not dying to lay on flaco but it's it's a man it's a trash game what about what about bills all against the panthers yeah it's probably smart uh in carolina Bills are, what, seven, seven and a half point favorites coming off of the buy, which interesting is Carolina's run D really has been solid. And I still just have questions about the passing game in Buffalo.

I mean, it's Josh Allen, he'll figure it out. Maybe it's just, you know, if you get healthy with Kincaid and not having Kincaid, I think maybe probably mattered. Like, they've been using him in a very different way. And I think they really missed him in that Atlanta game. But yeah, I mean, that would be, that would be interesting for sure, 12 and a half, 13 and a half, taking some big numbers on the bills. Yeah, I mean, just, I think you're getting a little bit of a discount here,

betting against the Panthers here. I mean, this is like, yeah, they're really bad. I think, well, I guess Bryson's misses. Like, I think, again, I think it's an upgrade for the Panthers. Yeah. Dalton. Yeah. Hey.

Yeah, that could be better. It's a good point. I mean, maybe the real play is just the over here, 45 and a half, 46. Like, Dalton can, I mean, the bills can probably drop, you know, 27 plus themselves, I think, just through Josh Allen, willing them there. And you can definitely get to pushback or turnovers from Mandy Dalton. Either way is great, you know. So I think that's interesting for sure. Yeah, look, it just came out today.

It was like Bryce Young, I think, had a high ankle sprain, likely to miss week eight. So maybe this is already a Dalton line. So I think the over here is an interesting world. I don't hate that. I like the alt's there, too. I want to give a little bit of a possible future or award look, a little sprinkle. The defensive rookie of the year is fascinating to me. It doesn't really feel like there's a lot of guys that actually could win the award.

Abdul Carter is your deserved favorite. He's awesome. Not putting up a ton of counting stats. Jahad Campbell is also right there. He actually, well, looks like Campbell moved ahead of him. Campbell is kind of in a role ship. He's moving from like a traditional offball linebacker role with Nicole Bedeen coming back. They play him on the edge a lot more.

So maybe that's better for him and he can put up some more counting stats. But he's, I don't know, I don't think he deserves to be where he is on the board. I'm still cheering for my sweatsh in your bags, which are, I think, in pretty good standing. But Nick Scorton, edge rusher for Carolina is starting to play really, really good ball. And they're playing them a lot more. and another other sack and a half, six pressures. He's got a few sacks in the last few games. I've seen 100 to 1 on Fanduel.

He's not even on our odd screen. Yeah, I'm scrolling. I can't find it. So I don't even know if 100 is the best. Can't find him. Same thing. As you were talking, I brought it up. And I think that's probably why I had to freeze

because I brought up multiple books to kind of start to shop it around. Yeah, but I saw 100 on Fandle. And I don't think it's a bad sprinkle. If you believe that there's something, here with the panthers they have a back end shot of being a playoff team and he starts putting up some cunning stats he there is just a bunch of guys listed ahead of him they're just have no business being listed ahead of him they're just there because maybe where they were preseason but uh scorton was an interesting prospect went early second a lot of people

thought he was going to go early or late first uh now we're starting to put it together and that team is desperate for pass rush and he's uh he's getting it done so interesting sprinkle if you like to get in the awards market at 100. I like that. That's fun. 100 to 1. Yeah. When I have to keep scrolling, it's like,

it makes me more and more as excited as I don't see the person when I'm scrolling. I'm like, oh, this is going to be longer, longer, longer, you know, it's great. You have to shop that. I don't know that that's the best, but I know Fandle will always have it posted at least. Caesar is rarely the best on that. Yeah. Yeah, don't hate it. All right.

Next, we have the, again, AFC. leading new england patriots 31 13 against the titans uh they get a win for rabel uh draig may let's two balls hit the ground connor 21 to 23 absolutely cooking right now remandre looks like the real deal travion down so bad it's not even we're talking about travon anymore um remandre cooking terrell jennings right is that his name yeah well whatever anything i don't care we want to win the football games okay we want to win football games so more Kisham booty goodness more Stefan Diggs goodness a ballast attack defense play well I don't know I get the Browns and the Titans are terrible back-to-back weeks where on

untouched attempting to throw the football just Camor drops the ball this time resulted in a scoop and score for the Patriots the KVion chase on like yeah I don't know Titans are awful. Pat's are rolling. Any thoughts? No, I'm sure you were, you were hyped. Early on, I think the, I thought the Titans were going to compete in the first, like,

quarter, it would look like, you know, they were... Yeah, Jeffrey Simmons was a beast, and Jeffrey Simmons went out, and that was it. And they had no shot. Yeah, they're pretty much dead at that point. So that was tough. I mean, Cam Ward had, like, a great opening series, opening drive. Like, oh, they got the kind of dead cat bounce, you know,

from the coach firing, and that just, like, fell off within, you know, 10 minutes or so. Pats came back, took care of business. So, I mean, they're playing well and they're going to play a bunch of bad teams. So that's all you need. They'll keep rattling off wins. Drake made. You just play better and better. Stefan Diggs continues to, like, not really... I mean, he's playing well, but he's not playing a ton.

Like, he's like somewhere in the 60 to 70% range snap-wise, which is, I mean, fine as long as they're winning. It's all that matters. Kishon Booty's playing better. Pop Douglas is, you know, there. He's playing fine, you know. It's like... Yeah. And the Henderson stuff is just... like from a fantasy football perspective and everyone who's there is so mad about it but the

reality is like they're just going to play the best players that they think are the best and it's not like he's some like world beater who's been crushing it and like super efficient on every touch and it's like why aren't you playing this guy more he's like he's been fine he's been like he said what like two good plays all season you know what i mean like it's yeah if like you know like a long reception maybe or two i think that's pretty much it he isn't on like crazy like long touchdown runs i don't think if i can remember no no preseason i get it that like yeah he was drafted i in the draft he was supposed to be really good remandre stevenson fumbles a bunch but i don't think this guy can pass protect and the coaches seem to like him and they're winning

so uh i don't think anything's going to change anytime soon and they just you saw the clip of rabel after the game saying like we got our new five minute back or whatever and charlese which i don't really know what that means just like but who is this guy i'm good Florida A&M. Do you know anything about this guy? Don't know anything about this guy. I'm like looking him up. Florida A&M Rattlers, undrafted free agent last year,

ran a 40 and 466 at 511-217. Like, this is the most average human being of all time in, for NFL standards. For NFL standards. Yeah. He's 99th point percentile of all you do. Right. but NFL standards maybe 30th percent off yeah hey win football games um that's it i'm gonna keep seeing that i think here too they host cleveland uh we're seeing a little bit

of movement seven and a half on pinnacle juiced seven and a half there's still a six and a half on draft kings mostly seven's out there too like it's just going to be more jane may cleveland's going to be stout against the run. They'll probably pressure him. It's probably a fair line, to be honest. The Browns are feisty enough. They have a, like, their defensive unit is good. They're going to keep themselves in games.

But then you're also telling me about a Patriots defense that is also really legit. It's also a really strong run defense, too. So it becomes more of a question of, like, how do the Browns move the football? Whereas, yeah, the Patriots might not buzz up and down the field because the Browns defense is legit but then you also have to answer the question at the same time is what does dylan gabriel do against this defense and i don't know that there's an answer to that yeah i've been like blindly betting like running backs against patriots like unders not blindly but you know like generally i don't know if i'm able to get there with judkins just because he gets like 20 something carries so like

right you know i don't know if that's a good bet um it would have to be probably like 100 or like 90 which we're not going to get against the tough patriots team but like 70s or something like that Um, but I don't know, it's, they've been playing really well. And then if that happens, like, yeah, you're forcing Dylan and Gabriel into third and sevens. That's, that's really tough. Really tough. Yeah. Uncorrelated.

You can't get the ceiling on it, but you can go over carries under yards. It might be a junkins look next week. Yeah. Yeah. Speaking of fun, 33, 32, Denver against the Giants. And you probably have seen or heard some of the historical takeaways of how unprecedented. and the comeback was here, multiple comebacks, right? It was the Giants up and Broncos come back and the Giants come back.

And then the Broncos come back again. Just a lot of drama within that. Some clutch play from both quarterbacks, although it wasn't always the case, especially from Bow Nix's side. You would say that the Giants did benefit from a pretty suspect pass interference call there in the end. But hey, this is what it is. I'm not the first team to benefit from a bad coaching or a, you know, a rough call there at the end that put the game off for grabs.

But, you know, the Giants fans, I think are still pretty happy. I mean, I don't think about losing the game, but I think they feel like they got something. And that's just half of it, right? It's just feeling like there's just something here. We feel like we might have a guy. He's got a pulse. He seems to give a rip.

And he's got a little swag. I know the kids are like in Jackson Dart. So my son does not watch a ton of. the ball like loosely knows and is like sits down he's like informed about jackson dart i'm like he's like yeah he was a lot of fun at old miss i'm like you never wants the second of jackson dart old miss and it's just tic-tok man just tic-tok swag chains uh yeah here we are the kids are excited about jackson dart so the giants fans but they lost they takeaways um yeah it's uh i mean this game was crazy one too it looked like the i mean the

Broncos scored, what, eight points through three quarters, something like that. We're just, like, completely dead in the water, couldn't move the ball. And then we get the pick, which was really bad. Like, that was, like, came after they scored. There were still two scores down. He scored, got a pick, scored a quick touchdown then after. And then, like, again, got a stop, then another touchdown. Like, it was like one of those things, the momentum just kept rolling.

And then they gave up, yeah, like the Giants scored again. So it was one of the craziest games ever. It was the DT Ring of Honor game. You can see behind me for anyone watching a video. got the Marius Thomas jersey. So you got a ducked into the Ring of Honor that game, which is pretty crazy. I mean, it was just an insane game.

Takeaway, though, for the Broncos. Like, I don't know if I've seen a team play down or up to their competition more than a team than the Broncos so far this year. They just are, whoever comes in, they want to make it a close game because for whatever reason. And I don't really know why what's going on there,

but they seem to just find a way to do it. basically, I mean, yeah, every week, their two losses are by three points to the Chargers, one point to the Colts on a game-winning field goal against Colts where they probably should have won, killed the Bengals, but then, you know, again, made Eagles close game. Jets, super-close game, Giants super-close game. Even the Titans, like, gave them a little bit of problems early on, and, like, they only won by eight. For sure, they didn't cover that game. Yeah, they didn't cover. Yeah. So, I don't know. Interesting team. They host the Cowboys, three points, basically.

Although, yeah, oh, that's just ESPN. So basically three. Totals between 40 and a half, 49 and a half. And again, like, they gave up a ton of points to a depleted Giants team. So this current Dallas passing offense, I get why there's optimism in points. I believe Hunter or guy, too, played the over in that game yesterday before it was, before Sunday night football ended. So I get it.

I don't know what to make of Denver, like you said. Jekyll and Hyde, but there's definitely some upside there. It's going to be a fascinating game. We have three games in the late window on Sunday. Tampa, New Orleans, not super exciting. Tennessee and Indy, less exciting. So hopefully the Cowboys and Broncos give us a fun football game. All right.

We have the Colts winning on the road, 3824. Big win for the Colts, I feel like, I mean, obviously this is not the Chargers team that we saw early in the year, lots of injuries, but there's so much balance to this indie team. They've touched on it, I think. They're just really complimentary with, like, their offensive weapons that they have. Alec Pierce is, I think, playing better football, and now they have, like, a whole other weapon by being able to unleash him deep. Tyler Warren's a baller. Defense, they continue to find ways to get it done without Chavarius Ward. who they put on IR so I'm really worried about them moving forward didn't matter here

although I guess you know cumulatively Herbert put out a ton of yardage probably doesn't matter next week either against the Titans their 14 point favorites here at home but any takeaways from Colts and Chargers Colts are legit I don't even know how this we got here or what's going on but it's incredible yeah like they're they're good um Chargers I mean it should have been a game there was like a end zone pick from Herbert that kind of caused some problems. I can't like there had to be some drives where he threw for like 130 yards on that drive alone because he just kept they kept throwing it and then getting

penalties and then converting and another penalty. I was like this is the longest 60 yard drive of all time. Uh, you know. And so it was fine for props. I mean, we had like 23 and a half completions. It was great. Uh, you know, again, should have like altered completions. If we knew we were going to get this run out here. But, um, I don't know. It was, it's one of the things where I think the Chargers are just in a tough spot without their two tackles and they're not able to establish a massive running game here. When you fall behind early

and the Colts are just continued to play great football offensively and reasonable defensively. You know, like that's what I would say. They're not good, but they played pretty well, at least in this game. Colts do not have a fantastic pass rush. They pressured Herbert on 57.4% of his dropbacks last, or this in this game and then that's astronomical uh to approach 50% they top 50% uh now they play on thursday night against the vikings who can definitely creatively generate pressure then

just beat you with some of their guys too so really tough spot uh they are for the chargers on thursday night kind of like minnesota there um yeah they're two and a half three i think Minnesota is kind of a lean i just think they're going to be able to live in the back field again getting to herbert joel maybe comes back but um i don't know maybe it's a tough quick turn around there so minnesota is going to be in the back field all day that's going to be a tough matchup um that's a it's a real tough matchup for the charges he can't hold on the ball there for longer than two seconds like it's just going to be have to be in and out if you do throw it basically because you're going to get he's going to get crushed otherwise yeah i mean i i

knew that was what was going on the game and i pulled up uh NFL pro this morning i was just sorting by you know pressures to the week to see you did what and like there were six of the top 15 guys were Colts. I think that's like, holy cow, they had a day. So, all right, Packers Cardinals, we touched on a little bit earlier, 2723. Again, it's a win. Michael Parsons showed up and looked good, did his thing for the first time, getting a ton of pressure, three sacks.

I think he had 10 pressures as well. He had a day. Jacoby Brissette continues to show a pulse, which we cannot really save for much of Kyler-Murray-led offenses. Any takeaways here from Packers Cardinals? We touched on a little bit earlier at the top. I mean, Packers just not quite as dominant as I would have liked based on what we saw earlier in the season. We thought they could have been truly like next level, kind of taking that step, as you mentioned,

Jordan Love Experience, makes some insane throws, misses some others. Their running game wasn't that, that wasn't that good today with Josh Jacobs, kind of a little bit banged up. He only finished with 55 yards on 13 carries. I'm like, Manuel Wilson couldn't get anything going. I mean, 2.8 yards per carries, terrible. So it's, I mean, that was the key. And, like, Jacoby Brissette played well enough to keep them kind of hanging around and winning most of the game.

So, you know, shout out to you for saying Jacoby's all right, you know, and could at least move the ball, you know, that's, which is all you needed to do. And so I thought this was an interesting game that, I mean, the Packers squeaked out here, but again, kind of left me on impressed. Yeah. Look, at the end of the day, you got to get those wins. They did, you know, they're all going to be sexy, but at least they took advantage and did get the W.

So, all right, Dallas, absolutely whoops, the commanders. We touched on this a little bit with the commander's news and Jane Daniels. But again, I was surprised that C.D. Lamb came back from a high angle spring and did not miss a beat. And now, I mean, they're fully healthy offensively. Dak is cooking. They took advantage of their former coach Dan Quinn. And, you know, part of it is obviously not just going down this game. But like, Noel Brown, Debo Samuel, Terry McClure.

and all-outs as well. So we were definitely looking at the B-Team for the commanders, and it's kind of how it looks. It showed, yeah. I mean, it very clearly showed. I mean, when you're running out Chris Moore and, you know, Jalen Lane and stuff like that, it's just not going to be consistent.

And then, yeah, you got Jaden kind of, I mean, a little bit banged up and then injured. Marcus Marriota dead in the game here. But, I mean, they were losing well before. Like, the game was kind of over when he got injured. At least that's what I thought. It was. So, yeah, I don't know.

This Cowboys team's interesting. Like, they're, they seem like, at full strength offensively, a team that can offensively keep up with basically anyone. They just need their defense to do anything

to have like, you know, a chance to win. The problem is I'm not sure their defense can be able to do anything most of the time. Just a great over team. You know,

they play on good football teams. They're just, those games are going to be fun to watch. And maybe, maybe Denver can do that and take advantage here there this week.

We get a chiefs Chiefs game for Thanksgiving. That's, that's going to be fun. It should be a lot of points in that one. At least entertaining right on Thanksgiving. Like, we get some stinkers. Like, give me some Cowboys Chiefs. That'll be, that'll be exciting.

So that'll be over. Yeah, overs are nothing for them. That's all I got. Sunday night, San Francisco, 20 to 10 against Atlanta. San Francisco, again, just continues to find ways to win. They're five and two. They took advantage of Divine Diablo getting hurt here and then just pounded Christian McAfre.

23 carries, 114 yards, another seven balls for 72 yards. Again, we know it's final destination vibes for Christian McCaffrey, but he survives another episode, continues on and look pretty darn good. Yeah, this is, I mean, by far his best running day on the ground. He looks better. I mean, more and more explosive, I think I'm almost every week, but like it just hasn't been super efficient overall. I mean, this is a good run defense coming to the week, too.

the Falcons were like a top, you know, three to five run defense, man, what metric you're looking at. Pass even still played, I would say, relatively well against Mac Jones, who had his, you know, least efficient day out of, you know, all the other games he's played. And he's played against some fairly good defenses here. So even with, you know, Kendrick Bourne and Jennings being his top receivers along with CMC, obviously, Kittle came back and just did nothing. He was out there just blocking, you know, basically. And he was running some routes, but it just wasn't needed here.

So nothing too crazy here. Again, I think the Niners are probably just going to keep being. a team that can, you know, beat basically every game that they play because they play a bunch of shit, shit team. So it's like, I don't know. I don't know if they're good because they're just so beat up. Like, I, I think they have like basically no upside. Like they, you know, they, I would be shocked if they won multiple games in the playoffs,

to be honest. Like, totally agree. I could win a game in the playoffs, maybe. They play a bad NFC team, get lucky. And then, I mean, I don't think they're going to be like lions, Packers, Eagles. even probably struggling against saving the rams in their own division if you know they play those you know um yeah it's it's tough and it'll probably get there because the schedule is so soft so right uh this Drake london on off split situation with darnel mooney is weird to me

like i get the mooney is is good he's better than your other guys your other like non drake London pieces but like you just pounded Drake London with 16 targets like from the slot you've now continue you've done it multiple times for some reason the entire dynamic of the offense switches when Darnell Mooney is out there instead of Casey Washington I have no idea why that is but we have a growing sample of that being kind of a unique situation so throw Drake London on the ball he's pretty darn good I don't know crazy to me yeah I don't I don't get it at all but it's been a thing for a while I almost actually like wanted to play like a Drake London over just like spite the splits.

I'm like, there's no way they're going to do it again. And, you know, I did it again. So, yeah, I played five and a half receptions. I'm like, this is an over adjustment. I don't understand. This guy gets caught, you know, 12, 11 balls again. Like, come on.

What are you doing? So, yeah, I don't know. Best bet for Monday night football? Um, I think there's a fun one right now that I played a little bit of that was on hard rock. Jalen Knoll to have four catches is eight to one. Um, uh, And so that's a fun one. Other than that, I think Nick Chub props are too high

and Ashad White props are too high rushing yards. I play CJ Stroud over 14 and a half rushing yards. I think 15 and a half still out there. It's been running more. Seattle got 50% pressure rate last time out. They're going to eat up this Texans offensive line and Stroud. You might do it on one carry. I don't know.

He did it one time for 30 yards against Baltimore. But that's the only game he hasn't run at least four times this year. So I like Stroud to get us at least 15. 16 yards so appreciate everyone hanging out with us make sure you subscribe before we take off take advantage of sharp stack guys free seven day trial a month for 50% off at mtl 50 come back on thursday for more of our props and stuff for the week so for connor i'm right we'll see all next time thanks everybody