Move The Line - NFC Post-Draft Overview

Episode Date: May 11, 2020

In the latest episode of Move The Line, Ryan and Connor break down each NFC division and discuss how the market has moved since the divisional odds were initially posted pre-draft. They unpack the relevant Rookie of the Year odds, and offer a quick overview of how they think each team handled their draft. They also discussed the various projected win totals for each team and the markets available as the summer approaches.Topics Discussed:NFC East (2:10)NFC North (9:48)NFC South (19:47)NFC West (30:25)Subscribe to 4for4Hosts: Ryan Noonan, Connor AllenFollow UsTwitter - https://www.twitter.com/4for4footballFacebook - https://www.facebook.com/4for4footballYouTube - https://www.youtube.com/4for4footballEmail: [e-mail]

Hello and welcome to Move the Line, presented by 4for4.com. I'm Ryan Noonan here. Joining me as always is fellow 4for4 writer, Connor Allen. What's going on, buddy? Not too much. I am corona-free right now and staying healthy, so that's mostly what matters. How are you doing? You don't even know, man. You could have it. You'd be just hanging out. That's the problem with this thing. They had that food plant the other day in Missouri. 373 people tested positive with zero symptoms. Everyone was asymptomatic. That's scary stuff. But we're not

here to talk about that, and you're not here to listen to that. We're here to brighten your day and talk about football. We had the schedule officially come out this week which is exciting they were able to ram three hours of schedule

release TV content down our throats but we are so thirsty for anything that's relevant to real sports and not Sims or old games or eSports so that was pretty awesome even though we already

knew everyone who everyone was playing, we now know the order and all of those things. So it's super exciting. But we wanted to come on and unpack a little bit of our post-draft thoughts. We last joined you for a draft preview pod with our friend and the GOAT, Evan Silva. Just want to give you a little bit of a rundown of our takes as far as how the draft went. Look at some of the rookie of the year odds that have emerged and the GOAT, Evan Silva. Just want to give you a little bit of a rundown of our takes as far as how the draft went. Look at some of the rookie of the year odds that have emerged

and the markets are starting to form for those post-draft, and then start to give you an overview of the division. We're going to start with the NFC this week. We'll be back next week to unpack the AFC. And, yeah, just kind of, like I said, give you a 50,000- foot view of how things have shifted from the lines being opened as far as win totals you know favorites in the division things like that so let's get started Conrad

talk about the NFC East opened up with Philly as the favorite there at plus 120. Both Philly and Dallas projected with 9.5 wins, depending on the market. Again, you really don't see massive shifts in win totals from free agency or even the draft. What you typically see more times than not is you'll see just movement in the line itself. So Dallas is holding a 9.5 in the line itself so dallas is holding a nine and a half in most places like i said same as philly but dallas has moved from plus 130 to win the division to minus 105 taking a slight edge as a favorite over the eagles there dallas had a good draft man i don't know about that defense but i know that silva would approve. CeeDee Lamb was arguably the best receiver in a loaded receiver core

and fell to them at 17, and that is now an absolutely loaded offense. I guess give me your thoughts on the CeeDee Lamb pick and talk to me about the NFC East. Yeah, I loved it. I think that they decided to strengthen their strength instead of kind of address a minor point of their weakness, which would be their defense. And I think that a lot of this, kind of my take here is that I like Dak.

Now MVP odds, you're looking, I'm sure you were getting better odds before, but now he's still at 12-1 to win the MVP. I think that that's probably worth playing a little bit. I mean, this offense here, you're replacing Randall Cobb with CeeDee Lamb, and now you still have Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper, Ezekiel Elliott, a formidable offensive line, and a real coach. You know, like there's a lot of things moving in his favor. And like we said, the defense is bad.

Like Dak has not just been able to coast and, you know, run the ball 30 times a game. I think that they're going to be able to have to throw a little bit here. So I'm expecting that, you know, Dak will kind of make that next step forward in terms of production and potentially contend for mvp i don't know if that's super hot i know that's been going around on twitter a little bit but i think at the odds right now like 12 to 1 still isn't bad i know it's towards the top but i think it's worth playing a

little bit yeah 12 to 1 still good like you I mean, they're basically replacing like 160-plus targets for Randall Cobb and Jason Witten, and it's going to be Blake Jarwin and CeeDee Lamb. It's going to be fun. They should have some fun totals. They should have some fun DFS tied to them as well. And they have, looking at the strength of schedule based on Vegas wins, I know this is some stuff that Sharp football has been doing for a while,

which is really great and pretty straightforward when you think about it based on what we're looking at Vegas to do, telling us as far as the win totals instead of looking at previous season stuff. They're looking at the ninth easiest schedule, so there should be some shootouts there. The other team that they're tied with, I guess, as far as win total in the division here, the Eagles.

Eagles had an interesting draft. They were able to snatch receiver like everyone thought they would in the first round, Jalen Rager. Everyone wasn't sure that it'd be Rager per se, but adding some speed on the outside is probably a good move for them. They also added Jalen Hurts. What were your thoughts on the Hurts move? Hello, darkness, my old friend.

I've come to talk with you again you're muted bud yeah all right um so i mean i i didn't really think it was that bad of a pick you know some people really criticized it i thought it was kind of some interesting insurance they're taking a high upside player that while he might not be your ideal backup, I think that he could be used early on in some kind of Taysom Hill kind of role in some sense. But really, I think he's just more of like a high upside backup that if he's developing during camp, you could potentially trade him away to a team who needs a quarterback. I don't know. I think that it was – I don't know about spending a second round pick on him i think that he has upside but i'm not really sure about that

in terms of his nfl quarterback upside as like a starter for me i can't get out of my mind those seasons at alabama where he just could not throw the ball like he like couldn't do it he was so inaccurate he was basically used as like uh you know running back for most of the time and i know a lot of that was system-based but still it was tough you know and i think that lincoln riley helped out a lot of his weaknesses you know at oklahoma so well you know we got a guy up there who in the hell is mel kuiper in a way for me it's it's something that doesn't really move the needle in terms of uh the eagles but i do think that the Eagles are an interesting post hype sleeper team, you know,

from last year. I think they'll, you know, last year, yeah, my heart. I know, I know,

I know you're all in, man. I was all in. And you know what? I think that they are an interesting team this year because, you know, they had a lot of injuries and their secondary didn't really pan out. Now they added Darius Slay.

Now they're receiving core. You're looking at Jalen Ragoor, Deshaun Jackson, Alshon Jeffrey, Dallas Goddard, Zach Ertz. And then you're looking at a good pass catching back with Miles Sanders. I mean, I think the offense is stacked and the defense, the secondary just needs to play decent. That's what you're looking at for a team that should make a playoff. And you're in the NFC where, I mean, the 49ers are obviously good,

but I don't think that they're like the Chiefs and the Ravens, I think, present more of a difficulty for like a random team to kind of break into that, you know, Super Bowl race, in my opinion, at least. So I think that there's some upside there. You're looking at them 10-1 to win the NFC, 20-1 to win the Super Bowl. For a team with a nine and a half win total and i would say almost certainly should make the playoffs i don't think it's a bad bet at all for like looking at that are you with that at all or

you think i'm crazy still riding off last year's hype or no i think you make good points i think that the nfc is to be had i feel like the ravens and Chiefs are definitely more prominent in the, in the AFC. So I think that there is some room for a team to kind of solidify themselves in the NFC. We had Philly opened as plus 800 to win the conference. And now they're basically plus 1100 everywhere. So moving in the other direction as they become,

you know, basically the betting second place team in the, in the division there. I really liked the Cowboys though. I mean, I know it's obvious they were, become you know basically the betting second place team in the in the division there i really like the cowboys though i mean i know it's obvious they were i believe they were one in six in one score games last year and that's we've seen over the years that you know there's some regression of the mean there that's probably not going to happen obviously a new coach with mccarthy in there and getting rid of jason garrett i think that there are some some good things that could be happening

there but philly is strong as well i mean it definitely is just like last year going to be with McCarthy in there and getting rid of Jason Garrett. I think that there are some good things that could be happening there. But Philly is strong as well. I mean, it definitely is, just like last year, going to be one of those two teams. I know you've already written up here at 444 your stance on the Giants, taking the under at 6.5 wins. I think that that's a really sharp play. They also have the second most difficult schedule in the league this year. They've gone from plus 800 to plus 1,100.

That's probably going to continue to move. And obviously the Redskins are still in rebuilding mode. They have a difficult schedule as well. And they're between five, five and a half in different books as far as their win total, plus 1,600 at this point to win the division. So I definitely think it's between one of those two teams. And with the expanded playoffs, now we're looking at seven teams getting into the playoffs this year,

which is definitely something to be for us to talk about once we break down division by division when we're looking at playoff odds. It feels like there's a path for both Dallas and Philly to get into the dance there, and anything can happen in the playoffs. So I think that those are definitely

the two teams that are head and shoulders above everyone else. The NFC North was really interesting. Obviously, the Packers draft was what everyone was talking about post-draft. Very similar. It felt kind of like a two-horse race. When the odds opened up, the Packers were a small favorite ahead of the Vikings, plus 135. The Vikings right behind him at plus 140.

It's still Green Bay as a slight favorite, but really the entire division has all kind of come to the middle. The Bears line is moving in their favor, and then the Joe Pano special, the Detroit Lions. I don't see it, but the Lions have moved from plus 900 to plus 700. Talk to me about the NFC North, and I guess have moved from plus 900 to plus 700. Talk to me about the NFC North and I guess kick us off with the Packers draft. Yeah, I mean that was just an absolute shit show.

They picked a backup quarterback in the first round and then doubled down by picking plotter A.J. Dillon in the second round. Traded out for Jordan Love too, man. That's a thing. Like they just really leveraged other draft capital to lock up a guy that they just – they can't use. We thought they were kind of a noisy playoff team last year to begin with. Oh, yeah. I mean so I actually – before the draft, I took them under 9.5 with a little bit of juice. It was like minus 125 or something like that which you

know in hindsight i wish i'd put more on but i did you know like a half unit on that just because like you said you know they're a noisy playoff team they were basically one of the luckiest teams in the league and somehow you know parlayed that into um you know a good playoff appearance a good playoff run but really i don't think that they were that good of a team you know based on most of the metrics that we've talked about at length and we'll talk about you know going forward but yeah so i i think they're closer to an eight win team this year and this division in general is kind of just it's tough to decipher but yeah i'm not in on taking detroit uh to win the division it would take a lot for them to win the division that's kind of when you look at these long shots i think

that you need to see a reasonable opportunity for that to happen like for detroit to win the division the bears defense would have to be bad along with trubisky slash foals being bad it would also it would require the packers regressing significantly and then it would also require the vikings who are a good very very good team to their defense not to play well and for their offense to be just really really struggling so like all of those things happening in one season in addition to matthew stafford staying healthy seems like a just a really far stretch like i would handicap that closer to like 10 to 1 instead of what it's at right now which is like 7 to 1 even down to five and a half to one at draft kings i know that joe and some other people in the betting community like them to potentially win

the division i mean maybe he's on the upside is there if Stafford stays healthy. But I think that alone is just a huge if along with all the other factors I talked about. Their defense is terrible. Yeah, I don't know, man. Right? Yeah. Their defense is terrible. We talked about when we were looking at draft props and we're trying to mock Jeff Okuda there.

But then we're like, hey, maybe they could use a defensive lineman. Like the Derrick Brown stuff started to get some smoke about a week before the draft, and it seemed like a bad pick probably, but they also have such a gaping hole at defensive line where it was like, all right, I guess that would make sense too. And that just speaks to the ineptitude of the defense there. And Matt Patricia is going to get some talk as a defensive mind. We've seen it for 20-something years,

all the coordinators that have come in and out of New England, all the defensive coordinators that have gone and not had success. It's Belichick's defense, and this guy is one of the guys that gets the call to plays. It's not like it was Patricia's defense and this guy is one of the guys that gets the call to plays it's not like it was Patricia's defense yes he was had you know Belichick and had his ear for you know a decade but uh that doesn't necessarily mean anything they have no talent on that side of the ball and there are some offensive uh skill position players here in this division that are going to cause them problems I loved Minnesota's draft you know they had two first rounders. They added Justin Jefferson, you know, Jeff Gladney,

the corner from TCU was projected to be a first rounder, you know, basically first round odds based on the sports books. They will snatch him up later in the first round. Ezra Cleveland was another guy that people were talking about him going in like the top 10 as an offensive lineman. They were able to snatch him up way later. Cameron cameron dansler another corner like they got rid of xavier rhodes like so probably gladdening and dansler will probably need to contribute right away but um now that we're getting a nice number on them plus 170 to win the division that seems like something i'm i'm really interested i'm not really buying the bears um i think that obviously foals is probably a good move for them.

I think you probably agree that moving off of MVP Mitch and onto Foles is probably plus EV for them. They do have the easiest schedule in the Division II and I think the easiest schedule in the entire NFC. So that's nice. And they have a weird market for their win total. I can't find an eight out there, but there are seven and a halves and eight and a halves so there's like an arbitrage opportunity right there if you think

the bears are going to go eight and eight you can hammer that but uh what are your thoughts on the bears yeah well uh i mean foals right now is minus 300 to be the starter which i actually think is probably too high um i mean i think that they're just like knowing ryan pace like i think that there's gonna be some kind of take lock there with like at least trying to give mitch like a chance you know during training camps if if they happen you know or at least pre-season um just kind of like at least kind of letting the battle it out i don't really think that they're just gonna give foals the job i mean like why even keep trubisky around like he's just like you know like what point is he like there's he's doing more damage as a backup than he is really like you know actually like competing i think they're gonna

try and let him compete you know maybe foals wins but minus 300 is way too much i think in my opinion i mean i think foals is a better player um especially at this point in the career but a mobile mitchell trubisky who's healthy i mean he flashed at some points you know during his second year and obviously he was not very good last year but at the same time I think that he showed some upside in some points when he was fully healthy so I don't know I think that that whole minus 300 thing is kind of ridiculous I think they're they're overplaying you know like how much people don't like Mitchell Trubisky and how bad he is. So I would probably handicap it closer to Nick Foles being a slight favorite, maybe minus 150 to be the starter at this point.

And as far as the team as a whole, I think it's just going to ride on their defense and whether their offense ends up clicking. We see basically last year it was just a slew of miscues where Nagy would call a terrible play and you know traviski would have no shot or nagy called a great play guy was wide open traviski and missed the wide open guy it was just like never meshed so really if that can mesh i think that they're a reasonable team that could make the playoffs with a solid defense um if it doesn't match like it's going to be probably a sub below average season i'm not really touching the win total at seven and a half i'd probably i

think they're an eight and eight team to be honest like they'll pull off a few wins here here and there but i don't really have too much conviction on them either way yeah you can get that middle pretty easily we knew that the you know they benefited massively from an easy schedule a couple seasons ago and that defense was outstanding and took advantage of it they obviously came back to earth a little bit last year, but we're still solid. Eighth in defensive DVOA, but unfortunately, like you mentioned, 25th in offensive DVOA. It's just not going to get it done, even with a great D. So if they take a step forward, I think that eight and eight

is probably where they're at. I think maybe a nine-win ceiling, but I'd probably be under that too. So it's not a win total I'd want to jump on either. Any interest in some long odds here for DeAndre Swift running back from Detroit? You can get his Rookie of the Year odds. This is really why we talk about it. If you get the opportunity and you have the ability to have access to all the markets out there, you really want to have exposure to as many books as possible to find the best line. Swift is plus 1200 for

rookie of the year on DraftKings, plus 900 on FanDuel. So if you're interested there, obviously getting him at 12 to 1 is a better line. That's an interesting backfield that we don't have to dive into the fantasy ramifications, but obviously they've invested in the backfield in the last couple of years and now they go ahead and add Swift. Any interest there or what do you like for his prospects this season? Yeah, I don't know't know i mean i think for him to be in consideration for rookie of the year he would need to like carry on johnson would have to get injured um and so like even at that point then you're looking at him competing with a quarterback who's going to start week one joe burrow uh for the bangles who has good weapons you know i know he's chalk but like

he just has – he's already there, you know, in a good position to – even if he has an okay season, like a decent season, like he's well ahead of anyone else, barring Clyde Edwards-Hilaire, you know, busting off, like, 15 touchdowns or something, which – so I don't know. For me, I don't really have too much interest in betting rookie of the year at all because I think Burrow is too much of a chalk player looking at him at plus 225,

whereas he suffers any kind of injury or setback at all. You're just burning money there, and the odds really aren't long enough for that kind of factor to happen, I think. Whereas betting one of these guys like Swift, I don't know. I'm just not super interested in it. I would guess that if I was going to take a long shot guy, it would be more like Cam Akers at 20 to one, where like he is legitimate shot to be their workhorse from day one,

I guess, even like competing with Daryl Henderson and Malcolm Brown. I would say that he has a better chance to workhorse duties on a team that's at least shown some kind of, you you know competence in the past offensively yeah yeah i mean we banged the book last year on uh on kyler murray i mean that was the same situation yeah it was just like the odds were even though they were short they were yeah it was just like hey that's that's by far the best it's the best number out there and you know taking these long shots at rookie of the year is probably not the best uh investment for your for your cash to sit out there for a couple of months so nfc south really interesting division obviously with all that's happened in tampa bay uh tampa bay

opened at plus 500 and they are now plus 130 to win the division still the saints division here to lose as far as the books are concerned. The Saints minus 105 after opening up. They opened at 155, so it's definitely moving the other way. You can find 10s, 10s and a half for New Orleans. Tampa's moved from, I believe you can get them at 7.5 before the Brady stuff, and now you're looking at 9.5 and 10 everywhere. It's going to be an interesting ride watching Tom and Rob getting their Florida on. But the thing is it's moving the wrong way, and it's definitely late,

but I still think that that number is a little low. If you can catch a 9.5, I feel like I'm still interested in it, even though it kind of feels like you're not getting the best number, and it kind of feels chalky. Talk to me about the Bucs. Yeah, i think we mentioned this on one of our past pods uh maybe maybe it was just in discussion but so originally when uh brady went to the box with bruce arians i was kind of like you know that doesn't really seem like a good scheme fit um but then once you dive deeper you kind of look at when Bruce Arians met with Ben Roethlisberger

and when he worked with Andrew Luck. Basically, it was like if the quarterback was ready to implement his own scheme and what he felt most comfortable with, that's what they were going to do. So when Brady comes to Tampa Bay, it's not going to be this insanely vertical scheme that Bruce Arians run in the past with Jameis Winston and Ben Roethlisberger and Andrew Luck, guys with really good arms that can sling it downfield. It's going to be whatever the hell Brady wants to do. He is going to implement his scheme exactly what he wants.

And so for that, I think that this is actually, in that sense, a great fit because you're looking at Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, Gronk now. Mike Evans is still legitimate I mean like they have a lot of good weapons on a pretty solid team with the defense that according to some analytics is was underrated last season and so I don't know I think that you're right probably nine and a half it's a bit too low but I don't know it'll be tough to kind of see him in another offense and really like how much you know Bill Belichick kind of mattered to him. But at this point, he's so deep into the league and kind of like what I just talked about before.

He can implement exactly what they were doing in New England. He just might not have the scheming advantages that Bill Belichick was able to give him on a week-to-week basis that he figured out from uh studying film i don't know at least that's kind of how i perceived it are you are you're on the bucks over you said is it does that ring true with you i guess for their offense yeah and he said it the other day he was very uh arians came out and said like it's going to be collaborative like we have what we want to do but we want to know what he likes and what kind of plays he likes. And I feel like they have the weapons to adapt to any of those things.

I mean, obviously, adding Gronk is great. But, you know, O.J. Howard and Cam Brate are very capable. Scotty Miller, you know, they have different guys that they can do different things with. I feel like you can do pretty much anything you want with Chris Godwin. Obviously, having a deep threat in Evans. Like, I'm also on, and I'm like really on an Island by myself. I, I did.

I'm biased. I don't think he's done. I don't think he's washed. I think that they had a really injured offensive line last year. And I think he was protecting himself. He didn't hang in. He had some really inaccurate throws. Like he was not standing in there to take it.

And I think if they can protect him, obviously getting Tristan Warfs is huge. If they can get some sort of semblance out of the running game from anyone not named Ronald Jones, I think that's going to be awesome for them. But yeah, the schedule looks nice too. The last seven weeks or something like that, they're either at home in Florida or they're in a dome. Like they're not, they're not going to be outside very often. I think that that kind of fits well for them.

And you mentioned like they didn't do a great job at stopping the pass. And I feel like they've made some improvements there. They were really stout against the run. And I think just obviously ball control is going to be different. The turnover margin is going to be, it's obviously been overblown, but obviously Tom's going to protect the ball more than Jamis did last year. And I think that it's going to be different. The turnover margin is going to be, it's obviously been overblown, but obviously Tom's going to protect the ball more than Jameis did last year, and I think that's going to set them up to be a better team and in a better position.

And I think that they can catch some wins with the bottom half of this division. You know, Atlanta, I really thought that they had a poor draft and don't feel like they've really taken any steps to improve. Carolina's going to be interesting. I actually think that there's a little bit of value on them at 5.5. They took nothing but defensive players in their draft. They added Brown, Gross Matos, who everyone thought might be a first-rounder, Jeremy Chin, who I thought was a really interesting safety prospect,

small school at Southern Illinois, Troy Pride from Notre Dame at corner. Because they're pretty solid on offense. Bringing in Matt Rule as the coach. And then Joe Brady, who was the guy who's basically been, you know, the guy that's been touted as making Joe Burrow, Joe Burrow, like with the weapons that they have offensively, they're going to be fun. Like they're going to be fun for fantasy. They're going to be fun for DFS. But their defense is even somewhat decent.

Like Atlanta might be the worst team here in this division. So I'm in the same with the Saints bandwagon. I've been in the Saints since we started doing this pod. Yeah. Like three years ago. Like I feel like the Saints have probably one of the best rosters in football. I think that some people didn't like their draft, but I felt like it's a pretty good win now draft.

And I think that they were pretty loaded too. So Tampa and New Orleans is going to be fun. Any thoughts on Atlanta or Carolina, their draft or their prospects for the season? Yeah, I'm kicking myself that I don't live in a state where gambling is legalized that has Caesars because Caesars Sportsbook opened up Teddy Bridgewater's passing yards prop at 2,999 yards. Oh my gosh. Yeah. What, they just don't think he's going to play? 2,999 yards. Oh, my gosh. Yeah. They just don't think he's going to play?

Yeah, so I don't even know. Like, that's – I saw this and I was like, okay, so he has to average more than 188 yards per game passing. If he plays 16 games. So I was like, okay, that's, like, outrageous. Like, this is, like, 500 to 600 yards off. That's insane. Yeah, they moved that up, like like literally 500 to 600 yards since speaking.

And I think that's probably closer to right, but even still might be a little too low given the weapons like you said. So I don't know. I think that I took a small position on the Panthers winning more games than the Redskins this year just because I thought that the Panthers were a better team. I like that. Yeah, so I thought that was kind of interesting. I don't really have too many takes on the Falcons here.

I think you covered that pretty well. But I'm a believer in Joe Brady. I think that what he did with LSU, like we saw whatever before, like they were running like just some old school offense, you know, where they would just run the ball before, like jam it down their throats. Yeah, it wasn't even like watchable and then now then they changed from that uh joe burrow throwing like 60 touchdowns in a season i mean guy who's like obviously a great player with great weapons but you know that's a massive massive transformation quickly so i'm just really

excited to see that offense i don't know i don't know what it's going to look like or how it's going to go but i'm intrigued yeah i mean ian Thomas, to get him in there instead of Dusty Greg Olson, added Robbie Anderson. They didn't trade Curtis Samuel. There was a lot of draft rumors around trading him. Obviously, DJ Moore's a stud. He could take a step forward. We know what Christian McCaffrey is.

The offensive line is pretty solid. Yeah, I mean, their defense is even somewhat decent. It's awful. It was awful heading into the draft. So, obviously, expecting to get massive contributions from four or five rookies is a big ask. But, you know, to get over that threshold of five wins, five and a half wins, is doable. Keyshawn Vaughn was Evans' favorite running back outside of that first year. Really nice landing spot for him in tampa you know

if he can ronald jones can't catch a cold and we know that everyone else on that backfield is is nothing anyway so kishan von from a fantasy perspective could be pretty interesting not really interested in betting him from a rookie of the year perspective but uh you know early best ball drafts and looking at some of the rankings he's pretty viable and could be pretty interesting with an offense that uh you know could put up a lot of points yeah i mean i think i think he's kind of like a fine late round swing i don't know i'm interested to see where his adp ends up um like right now over at four for four like looking at the adp from ffpc and the best ball tens um like ball tens. Ronald Jones is still going slightly out of him, it looks like, but that might just be due to

pre-draft ADP influencing that a little bit. I would assume they'll probably end up similar until we start hearing reports of who's going to be used more and how that goes. I really don't know. I think that whichever one does carve out a bigger role will probably be of value just because

like you said, the offense is going to be good um they're going to probably score a good amount of touchdowns and that's what you want you got touchdown upside and then i mean he can actually catch the ball vaughn can so pass catching upside with the quarterback like brady i mean that's probably a good late round swing there but right now rookies are just being massively hyped in fantasy like it is insane i tweeted it out and I got a little bit of pushback there, but you're seeing Clyde Edwards go at the top of the second sometime. You're seeing Jonathan Taylor early third round, a guy who might not even start the season as their lead running back,

like J.K. Dobbins and DeAndre Swift going early fourth round. I mean people are out of their damn minds i don't know i don't i would like i will fight people who disagree with me on how like where these guys should be going and i'm going to be fading them until they're moved down a couple of rounds each pretty much for all these guys yeah they're going they're going early and early i think the only one that's probably not going to drop and i am with you until we see something emerges there's enough hype around around Clyde Edwards-Hilaire right now. He's only going to continue to move. He'll probably settle in the second round.

Some are aware Damian Williams was last year. There's still questions, but yeah, I don't think he's going to go. But I agree with you. I think all the other ones are being significantly overdrafted for sure. Atlanta, by the way, worth noting, most difficult schedule in the league this year. So fading them, and that could be another place for offense and fantasy. They're going to have to pass a lot.

Their defense isn't great, and there could be some fantasy points tied to them. But from a win total perspective and looking at them from a division standpoint, like pretty much a hard pass there. NFC West, really interesting division, obviously with San Francisco, who basically was just manipulating playing chess

while everyone else was playing checkers. They moved their first round pick to the Colts by, or, you know, get a first round pick with the Colts by trading out and trading out Forrest Buckner. They basically draft a younger, cheaper replacement in Javon Kinlaw. And they just maneuvered really well in the draft. I really like what they did. They opened up as a plus 105 favorite in the division.

That's now moved to minus 105 pretty much across the board. 10 and a half wins as the favorite here in the division. Seattle's second there. You can find nine, nine and a half out there in most places. But again, the favorite here in the division. Seattle's second there. You can find 9, 9.5 out there in most places. But again, the odds are going the other way. Again, San Francisco really getting a lockstep there as far as the totals go. The Rams, really can't find anyone that really thought they did a good job in the draft. They opened at plus 270 all the way to plus 400 now.

Not a lot of interest there. And Arizona was really interesting. Obviously, you have to consider part of their draft haul was their pre-draft trade of DeAndre Hopkins, which was just absolute thievery. Basically getting human Swiss Army knife Isaiah Simmons in the first round, too. And another guy that everyone thought was going to go in the first round was Josh Jones, tackle out of Houston. He fell, and basically they were able to address the offensive line, which everyone thought they

probably should do in the first round with the Simmons pick by getting Jones later. So really like what Arizona did there. Talk to me about the NFC West. Yeah, I don't have a ton of takes on this division, actually. I would say that I think that maybe San Francisco might be a little bit overrated um going into the season 10 and a half wins is a lot i mean the defense is good but i was talking about this with uh you know paino the other day about how teams who with on offense have relied on um like a scheme kind of to be good and not really on their quarterback and have like suspect quarterback play which we've seen grappolo really he's had some good games and he's had some really bad games where he's looked pretty bad and i think that that's similar that we've seen over the

over the years with guys like jared goff mitchell trubisky who are kind of like their schemes are great and they have a great season surrounding a team that is also very good and then the following years they kind of get a little bit more exposed and so i'm not really as excited about san francisco i know that their roster as a whole it's a lot better than those examples that i named but um i mean i think that there's just a little bit more volatility with a team like that than you would expect for a team like you know kansas city with patrick holmes um or another you know Super Bowl favorite type of team. And I'm not really saying that they're going to be awful or anything, but could they regress to being more of like an eight-win team or a nine-win team?

I think that that's possible, especially in a division with Seattle, who I'm not a huge fan of their philosophies. I think they're still a good team, though, overall. And let Russ cook whenever they are down. I think that they can all come back from pretty much anything. And they played San Francisco close in pretty much every game. The Rams last season were obviously at a massive down year, but McVay started to figure it out towards the end.

And I think that there's a potential chance for them to bounce back a little bit and be in that nine-win range. And then the Cardinals, they are a very interesting team this year that could take a huge step forward so they're in a really tough division and while the schedule as a whole might not be uh i mean crazy they're very san francisco schedule is like 17th right now so it's pretty much you know moot like there's not really much of a point to be made on the strength of schedule i think that their division is tough so um i don't know i think i'm not really saying

they're gonna be bad and i don't have a total take on it but i think that their division is tough. So I don't know. I'm not really saying they're going to be bad, and I don't have a total take on it, but I think that in terms of betting a Super Bowl team, I would probably avoid them. Okay. Yeah. I don't love the over 10.5. I don't love the division as a whole. I think Arizona is on the come for sure. Obviously, the betting market likes what they've done.

They opened at plus 2,000 to win the division all the way up to plus 750 now, which is nice. But they're still, you know, they're six and a half sevens out there for their win total. You know, I think them getting to eight and eight is nice. Seattle, I'm just down on. Like, you can get nine, nine and a half out there. So I could see San Fran falling short of that 10 and a half, maybe going 10 and six,

but I still feel like they should be the strong favorite to win the division um the rams i just i don't understand with all the needs that they had this is their fourth straight year of not having a first round pick first pick they have they go out and grab cam acres who we talked about on the pod like i was really hard you know high on him i was i kept pushing silva because silva didn't have him in his top tier and i really thought he should be there you know so i think he's pretty viable for fantasy, like you said. I mean, they traded up last year to add Earl Henderson. They still have Malcolm Brown.

They thought their first pick needed to be a running back, which I think is pretty suspect. They go ahead and then their next pick is a redundant slot receiver that doesn't profile as like a massive outside win you know contested catch receiver at the nfl level kind of redundant with what they have with cooper cup so didn't love what they did at the draft and yeah i mean i feel like they're there's some value on them on the under i really don't think that they're back to where they should have been in the past so i can see them all falling a little short but i still think sanfran is is definitely the bell of the ball in the west yeah i mean that that's fair i

think it's it's just tough because their defense is super super good um i think that the the running back situation something probably we'll have to look for in fantasy and that will probably be something we will talk about in the future where with raheem mostard and you know jerick mckinnon's still healing up there because I think that they're going to keep continue to ride their running game you know as long as it's being efficient um like it was so um I think I mean Tevin Coleman too as well I think he could be you know a bit of a value uh Raheem Mostert right now going in like the

fourth round sometimes in drafts and I think that's a bit rich considering uh Shanahan's history of you know utilizing different running backs like to week, basically. Even after Moser busted out 100 yards or two touchdowns or something like week 17, he didn't even start the first playoff game for the 49ers. It was like Breda, who got three carries, and then you saw Coleman go off the next week. And then the only reason that Moser went off the week after was because Coleman got injured in the first, like a six plays and he had like 30 yards in the first drive. He was just going to go bananas too.

So do we really know that most are, he was even the guy like, yeah, sure. He's good on a good team, but in the fourth round, I mean, that is,

that's rich. He should be like a six, six round pick where Coleman was last year. Yeah. But the other thing that was part of their draft was they traded for Trent Williams, which didn't cost them a ton.'s true yeah you know it makes it solidifies obviously they you know it's joe stanley left but you know it just it kind of solidifies that run game and they know what they're doing their total dvoa second last year defensively and seventh for

offense i mean adding brandon iuk i think was a really nice pick um i think debo samuel continues to take steps forward so there is just a lot of talent there to your point whether or not garoppolo really takes that next step i think they could probably be good enough even if he's just kind of mediocre with everything else around him so yeah i mean jeff wilson too is still there in san francisco like that dude would have have, Matt Burrito would have 150 total yards and Mostert would pop for 95 and Jeff Wilson would have two touchdowns. You just want to punch yourself in the face for rostering any of them in DFS. Yeah, I don't think that that situation is going away.

I think you can get Mostert a little bit later in MFL 10s and best ball over there, but still probably a little rich for for you're talking about i mean these scenarios are going to play themselves out just the same way it's gonna it's gonna suck so all right careful there so running back man i just again when it's not a fantasy pod and not a fantasy topic but running back falls off a cliff this year it is like i don't know if it's the worst zero running back season or like the best because like they're just a small handful of dudes and then it's like just there's a bunch of

guys that are going to have some value for different weeks and it's just going to be it's just hard it's very it's very very hard this year you need to come out of the first few rounds with the running back otherwise you are just going to be like going nuts during the season playing running back you know like rotations and guessing and streaming and it'll make your team have way way more much more work when wide receiver is way more deep anyways no more fantasy this is a this is a gambling pod we're uh we've been told it's a gambling pod so yeah it's a it is a gambling podcast so any you know just overview before we wrap it up you know emerging favorite or someone you think that you like to come out of the nfc or looking at some of the

odds that are out there um is there a number that you like as far as uh representing the nfc in the super bowl yeah so i i've met touch on a little bit eagles 10 to 1 i think it's interesting um other than that i mean yeah i know and i mean saying 7 to 1 is not bad cowboys at 9 to 1 isn't bad either i think that's kind of like that range that i would probably look at is the guys who aren't chalk like you know 49ers are plus 475 at draft games bucks are 6 to 1 um i think both of those are fine but i don't just not sure that's enough value for me um to consider like betting on these teams to really you know represent that of c here i would probably go towards that like nine ten uh like seven to eleven

range kind of would be where i would look in this category so like saints cowboys and eagles would probably be what i would consider yeah i'm with the saints i think saints cowboys i could be sold on the eagles i think minnesota depending on what you can get that line like i don't love that like i'm not sold i need to see 12 yeah yeah i could see 14 on bet online but still not not great but uh like you said i think it's more open but i still think it's pretty it's pretty top heavy um Some of these divisions seem like they have two really strong, very likely playoff teams, and then the rest of it's kind of crappy. So there could be some soft wins here, depending on how the schedule breaks for you.

So awesome. Well, that's all we got for you this week. Anything else for the listeners, Connor? Not too much. I'll be releasing an article on the Seattle backfield coming up here in the next few days. And other than that, we'll probably have some new bets coming up. Our projections are coming out, releasing soon at 4 for 4, like the season-long projections. And so we are going to use those to leverage Sportsbook player prop projections and write up some articles.

So that will be coming out in the next few weeks as well. Awesome. Follow Connor on Twitter at Connor Allen NFL. You can find the pod over there as well at Move the Line NFL. And we'll be back next week with the AFC. Thanks for listening. Yeah!