Move The Line - NFC Win Totals Deep Dive

Episode Date: July 17, 2026

Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen continue their 2026 win-total coverage with a full breakdown of the NFC. They discuss the teams with the widest range of outcomes, the offseason moves that could reshape the conference, and their favorite values and fades across the NFC win-total market. Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package or try SharpStack free for 7 days: https://www.4for4.com/plans Circa Sports Survivor and Circa Million, $30 million guaranteed: http://circasports.com/contests Watch Move The Line on YouTube: https://4for4.co/3OupraJ Join the Discord: http://discord.gg/4for4 Follow the show: https://x.com/MoveTheLineNFL Connor: https://x.com/ConnorAllenNFL | Ryan: https://x.com/RyNoonan Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome to move the line presented by Circa Sports. Ryan Nune, joined here as always. I'm a friend Connor Allen here for some NFC win total discussion today. Connor, what's going on? Yeah, it's NFC's, I think it's pretty wide open. You know, obviously saw the Seahawks, ringing champions dominate your Patriots, unfortunately. It was a tough, tough Super Bowl.

Dominate. But we're back, you know, we're back closing up our NFC or our NFC and AFC win. total shows, but obviously going to deep dot into each division and have a ton more bets, props, bets on each team, futures, much more there. Yeah, we're turning on the hose. It's July. So we're a little far out, but we got a lot of stuff to talk about here. So if I move the line, wherever you listen to podcasts, you can find move the line on YouTube as

well. You don't miss a show. I think we've been going all weeks. We've already got a bunch of shows in the bag for you here if you're just kind of catching now. but AFSC win totals should have been up, I think, for you yesterday. And you can talk back to the coaching changes are out there too from a couple of days ago, along with some of the other high levels of stuff too.

So before we jump in, Connor, tell us a little bit about what's going on over at Circle. They got some great stuff going on here. As always, some stuff. We get to be a part of the summer, too. Yeah, absolutely. they have 30 million plus guaranteed in their contest this year. And we fly out to Vegas.

Put it in an entry. Circa millions. You pick five against a spread each week. Super easy to do. We'll be having segments on it. Probably talk about some of our picks and then Survivor as well. You know, you get to play against the legendary GRP this week, I think, or this year. So, you know, hopefully if any of us lose to him, you know, I think we might have to permanently ban ourselves.

But, you know, it should be an awesome contest. excited head out there. We'll be out there, Radio Row for the whole weekend and firing off some entries. I'm excited for that. Cannot wait. Yeah, come say hi. If you're out there, you want to find more information. Look here in the show notes.

You can find more information of what circuit has out there. There's a bunch of different ways to get down and speculate on the season, win a ton of money. So check it out. Again, you can find more information on previous shows that we've had there too. So let's jump in. It's kind of like, I don't know, NFC West loaded. And then it feels pretty open everywhere else. We'll start with the East, though.

We do have the Eagles with a pretty interesting offseason and some changes with Philly. Just nine and a half on the wind total line out there for you. If you want to shop around, it's juiced a little bit. Otherwise, you can find some 10 and a halfs. Some interesting season and I'm interested to see how they do this year too. Dallas, obviously, if they can do anything defensively, they could be quite interesting.

The offense was not the problem last year, but they've invested and made some changes there on the defensive side the football. Commander is hoping to stay healthy last year. It was kind of a throwaway year with, you know, Jane Daniels injury and whatnot. So a lot of investment on the defensive side of the ball there as well. And then the Giants, new identity, a lot of ways, new talent, new coaching staff.

Talk to me about the NFC East. Yeah, there's, I think the Eagles are probably, in my opinion, the clear best team here, even with losing A.J. Brown, you know, you're looking at Devontas Smith, now the draft, Mackay Lemon. in office of line still ranks really well. So you have a lot of your core pieces here. There are some like rumblings of Jalen Hertz as being like a defining year for him in a lot of ways.

He just really hasn't lived up to the billing in a lot of ways. So, you know, I don't necessarily think that that's true, but crazier things have happened. So, you know, I still think this Eagle team's overall very good. It's great cornerback room. And overall, you know, I think that they're probably the best team in the division year. But if you look at the rest of them, I am kind of interested in taking some commander stuff

if they bounce back here a little bit. Maybe it's not from the balance out with the, like my player model has them about even. Like I actually directly even, 7.5 wins, 7.5 wins. But I do think that Jane Daniels is a little bit underrated. And like, I mean, basically willed them to some wins as a rookie and, you know,

gets injured. And so like I think buying a little bit of that bounce back is interesting here. And on the other hand, the Giants, I'm, I'm pretty worried about them. Like, I think that this could be an opportunity where good coaching overcomes, like, poor talent, but, and they have good defensive talent, but they're, I don't know they're going to pass the ball. Like, who bleak neighbors might miss a good chunk of the season beyond him, like the

receiving room is just rough. And, and so, I don't know, I mean, I guess they added Isaiah likely. You can't run an offense through your tight end. So there's a lot of, like, issues. here. Cam Scadabo's coming back and like apparently he's going to be the focal point of the running game. Like how many games does he even play? Dude's just like an absolute bowling ball.

And same with Jackson Darley. They've got to tell him to cool it a little bit. So I struggle with this division a little bit, but I think that Washington is probably a good, good bounceback candidate here. I'm nervous to take the under on a Giants. If it was anyone other than Harbaugh coaching, I would be pounding the under at 7 and a half.

But I don't think, I just can't do it right now. I'm with you on the commanders. I think the commanders have, I think this is one of those scenarios we've touched on it a little bit on the previous show where, knowing that there's an inefficiency in this market with wind totals,

and then there's opportunities to kind of swing for the fences. And I think that there's a lot of upside if you were to get, you know, a healthy year from Jane Daniels. I think the changes on the defensive side are pretty massive. They were, I think,

a pretty old and slow unit last year. And, you know, I really wanted the Patriots to resign Claibon Chase on. I think he was really, really good for them last year. And then I already, you know, touched on on the AFC podcast about Adafay O'Oway and the loss of him for the commanders. It's a nice, nice move for the commanders. There's a lucrative deal, but, you know, kind of a young guy that really just kind of

struggled to find his footing with the Ravens and then really, really emerged. And then they moved him last year and then was awesome down the stretch. So I think that's a really nice move for them. I'm a solid interior defensive line situation. Bobby Wagner's like, you know, can it just look like he had cement blocks on his feet. I think we had Sunny Stiles, who is like the complete opposite of that.

You know, Leo Chanel is a guy that like everyone in like IDP communities wanted to get, you know, a role forever. I'm not sure he has one yet, but like he's really good at what he does. And there's a perfect fit for this style of defense for Dan Quinn. Like he can rush off the edge. she could be like a run thumper. They already have Frankie Louvo there. I kind of like the defensive backroom.

Trey Amos was a nice pick for them last year. I don't know. Safety room is really nice. They grabbed Nick Cross. So I think there's a lot of upside for the commanders. And seven half is pretty generous. Like I would probably just take like an alt, like over eight and a half at plus money instead of messing around with it or maybe even like them to make the playoffs or something

like that. Even that like you might even be better off just grabbing like a division situation given like what's going on. the AFC West, you know, playoffs is going to be maybe hard to sneak in. The north is obviously a buzzsaw as well. So like, I don't know. I think positive commander stuff is like long shot division and then all the wind totals.

Yeah, there's just like some giants. Yeah, there's, right. Like outwire possibilities here, you know? Yeah. I can share your concerns with the giants too. Like Wondell was good for them last year. And the Malik neighbor stuff has just been kind of a drumbeat of negative news. And I, defense, I think, does have talent.

but like still got a score. You're not going to win with defense alone. Yeah. I mean, Malik Neighbors has been a drumbeat of negative bad news for the Giants since he was drafted. I mean, the dude just like,

there's no interest in playing there basically. When he does play, he's balled out. But, uh, and he is really good. It's just he, he seems to have like no interest in like, I don't know,

just like being part of the Giants. Uh, I never has. I started a threat on Twitter since like the day he draft. And I just kept adding to it of just him just being like, you know, shitting on the quarterbacks having no interest of that and then obviously they get jackson darned he's still kind of just like all right you know it's okay i think they only played what like two

games together last year anyways it was it wasn't very many yeah uh wasn't a lot yeah it's not great uh any thoughts on dallas before we uh before we move on obviously i mean the you know the queen williams trade last year was was impactful for them down the stretch um you know they've got a lot of it brought some more young bodies over to kind of fill the mic apart Carson's role and just, you know, they got a lot of dudes to play defensive end. I don't know if they have anyone that's like consistently above average. I think, you know, Rashad Gary's just kind of been a little bit above league average for a while, but like it's never been the guy that a lot of people thought he was going to be.

You know, I was very bullish in the draft process on Malachi Lawrence, but like that probably doesn't happen in year one. That's like a situational pass rusher more than anything. Donovan Azarouke from last year's draft. Like they have guys, but I don't know if they have anyone to kind of step up. and be that guy in year one. I'm excited about Caleb Downs and what he can do. But any Dallas thoughts before we move on.

Yeah, I mean, I think the corner room is still really suspect. But the run events after they got Quinn Williams was really good. Like it went from like the worst to like solid. And that was like very noticeable in the prop market. Like he made an immediate impact. So I think that's positive for them. Like I remember us last year, it's being like they just have to do anything well. Like if they could stop the run a little bit or stop the pass, like they're somewhat competitive.

they just couldn't do either. So I think now maybe they stop the run. Maybe they get a couple of wow plays from Lawrence, from Downs, like a couple of like chaotic plays. And then they're okay. You know, like that, that is a path to the Cowboys to be good. If that doesn't pan out,

then they're just like a slightly better version of last year. And, you know, I don't know if that's good enough. Yeah, and that's probably, that's pretty fair. I think you're going to ask Downs to play slot corner. So then if they basically only need like, If they need like Chavon Revel, they, you know,

as a part of the year last year as a rookie and then played okay at times. I mean, it wasn't great. They kind of just need him to step up and, or one of the other guys that kind of got thrust into action last year, which wasn't great. They need someone to emerge. That helps a little bit because they have some depth at safety.

So I think they're going to play Caleb Downs and maybe that like Cooper DeGine role where they give him a few snaps here and there at safety, but it'll mostly be, you know, a slot and kind of a nickel corner. So be interesting to see what there. They need to stay healthy because it's pretty thin there on the back end. All right. The NFC North. I don't know, man.

We joked we could probably do a full show and fill 45 minutes on the Bears in the wild season that they had last year. Again, another one of those scenarios where there are multiple levers pulling me in different directions in terms of luck, turnover variance, but bullish on the talents and the coaching. The Lions are team that I know you're interested in based off of some earlier discussions on earlier. episodes. Green Bay has some questions in terms of what can they look like without Michael Parsons for the early start of the season and then pretty big quarterback situation to kind of suss out in Minnesota. So what are your big thoughts in there for the North? Yeah, as I touched on the other episode, I like Lions most wins. I actually haven't projected for the most wins in the league,

and that's 14 to 1. Just based on the schedule, don't think they're the best team. I think they're like a top four or five team, but schedule is really nice there. So like them, a good bit this year. to go over their win total and to have the most wins. Bears, they don't really rank well in the player model. So for, you know, those just listening in basically took all the different players, their position, used a bunch of advanced metrics, PFF grades, everything, blended it, weighted every player in position based on what matters historically. Obviously, quarterbacks have high grade, wide receivers, skill players have a lower grade, but higher grade, then, you know, just a linebacker, you know what I mean? So everything has different grades.

And Caleb Williams is really tough. Like he doesn't really grade well. And you got to look really hard to find advanced metrics that like him, essentially. So he's almost never going to grade well in like models. And that's not surprising. He's just like he is a model breaker. He plays like shit for three quarters. And then, you know, throws three of the best passes you'll ever see.

And then the Bears win. That's how they won. Like that's true. Like if that shows up in people's show me one model, honestly, where the bears are like. a really good team, you know, and like are the best team. I don't think you're just going to find one, you know, to be honest. Like their run defense, Austin Booker is a joke.

I mean, this guy is like the worst run defender in the league maybe. And, you know, there's like, there was, you see the montages of Austin Booker like, like, just like taking the wrong angle and like they're shooting out too far. And like, I don't know. Are you an Austin Booker guy? Am I hurting your heart here? Because he looked like a goofball last year. No, he was like a fourth round pick from Kansas.

Like he was pretty solid at Kansas as like a pal. rusher but he very much could be one of those guys that like his minimal edge rush ceiling but just in terms of just raw go get the quarterback but not a like you know hold the line uh fill the gaps uh wrap up cleanly so that's you know and that's a problem because they they're expecting a decent snapshot from him i would think and i don't like that behind him if he if he can just pin his ears back he was finally like creating havoc it seemed like he could like get there correct but from what he did from there on was usually not good and defending the run was also not good. Then the Bears' offensive line, I think outperformed kind of like their talent, but that might

just be like a, that might just be a Ben Johnson thing, super confident in Luther Burden. Romo Dunez was injured last year. So I think he is more of like an ex-receiver this year and good running back room. But like, I think the bear's secondary is still kind of a problem. Like they weren't really healthy that often altogether. like even when they were still didn't kind of all come together and there's a lot just a lot of questions there so like and they won so many games against like bad teams in unsustainable ways like

you shouldn't need to beat the raiders on a blocked field goal you know what i mean like that's yeah insane turnover variance too right like they had so many like opportunistic uh you know luck situations like you know i know that you can defense can create havoc and lead the turnovers but Those things are stabilized here over here. And you, you know, expecting that to come back is, is a little bit tricky. At least they kind of did address and say, like, hey, we know our defensive backroom is kind of a problem. They overhauled the safety position. You know, most of the corners are kind of back.

They can keep everyone healthy. Like, you know, Jalen Johnson struggled to stay healthy. Kyla Gordon's really struggled to stay healthy. Tyreek Stevenson's kind of a bonehead. I know a lot of people liked, like, Malik Mohamed in the draft process. Maybe he emerges. But those are questions for sure in the division. that's loaded in a conference that's loaded too.

So there's just such a real Ben Johnson believer. Like I know a lot of it's magic. It's not even like the shirt off in a locker room stuff. I just think he's like going to call really good plays and put dynamic offense in position to win football games. And I think they can be a team that exceedingly outperforms models and Caleb's baseline CPOE and EPOE. in an EPA per play type stuff because he also has an insane amount of talent so his like range

of outcomes is is massive but um there's a lot of reasons like it a bearish on him this season for sure no pun intended it's it's one of those things too where like guys are just like always running open these scheming is like what we saw from mcvay like early in his career too of just like guys are always in the right spot it's like can clay Caleb deliver and i don't even think Caleb was very good at like fitting within Ben Johnson system last year. Like he missed a ton of throws and put them in those situations of like, okay, we're down. Now we need to score.

Now I'll do something crazy and win it. Like a lot of his like best plays were out of structure. Like you start sitting stuff in structure. Like this is going to be a top five offense like easily. That's like how much he missed. That's why his CPOE is trash. It's because the expectation was like, oh, there's a dude running 30 yards on the field.

And Caleb just sails one. You know what I mean? So it's a tough give and take excited for the Bears this year to like watch. I don't know if I'm backing them. To be honest, they're like their markets are high if anything. It's a blind under and just don't watch them. But I'm not doing that.

Yeah, that's not fun. Let me get the Packers. I mean, Jonathan Canyon's in as the defensive coordinator, you know, I think condensed the receiving core. I'm not sure that I'm going to actually have, Christian Watson play a bunch of games versus like, oh yeah, I know we can figure it out because we have 15 guys

and none of them are really the guy. So that puts a lot of pressure, I think on, you know, and Matthew Golden, a lot of pressure on Jordan Love. And obviously pressure on, you know,

a new defensive coordinator in-house there after, you know, without your best player for probably at least four weeks. Yeah, this is a tough team. Obviously, we were big Packers, backers last year,

at least I was specifically. Jordan Love really didn't. I don't think answered the bill, you know, answered the bell here. It was, it was really tough. Their defense wasn't as good as I thought that they could have been, given the talent that they had. It was a little bit underperforming there. Obviously, Micah's health, like you said, is a big deal there too.

I am a big believer in the floor's play calling. That obviously matters and, like, his ability to just, like, build a good structure. I think they're going to be a really good team. Don't know if they're going to be a great team. I don't know if they can take that next step forward. I think a lot of that relies on the defense and Jordan Love. specifically i do like matthew golden um alts though i think you can get like plus 250 or something on him to have 750 receiving yards which is nothing i think he's going to be like a full time wide out for them

looked really good end of the season has good draft capital um yeah like i mean markets are just way out in this guy and i don't get it i mean christian watson's never been able to stay healthy and i don't think he's all that good when he is jaden reed literally he's played slot they have no interest in playing him in 12 uh in two-hard receiver sets so you're just going to get a lot of matthew golden and an often injured Christian Watson. So I don't know. Maybe I'm maybe he sucks. Maybe he's just a really bad.

But I think that's more than price then. More than price 10, I think at that point. Yeah, I think that's a good look. I'll do in Minnesota. Does it feel pretty clear that it's Kyler to you a quarterback? Yeah, I was listening to the ETR pod today. I think they have him at 95% Kyler or something like that. And there was, yeah, Gratz brought up a great point that there was like

like a clip basically of O'Connell saying, we need to get back to the quarterback position, being like a stable, strong part of our offense and leading us in the right place and not being a problem. And basically like the guy who was Dan Patrick was like, so that means Kyler and he just like didn't respond basically. So I think Kyler is probably the starter.

And we'll go until unless they like really struggle, to be honest. So I'm kind of buying low on this offense in general. I think Justin Jefferson, Juan Jennings, Jordan Addison with Kyler. Like, I don't think Kyle is good, but he's a serviceable quarterback. I'm too. I mean, I think they're probably clearly fourth in division, but I also think like, doesn't mean they can't win seven or eight games.

Or like, you know, there's bears regression or someone gets injured or something. You know what I mean? Like something happened, Jared Gough gets hurt or, yeah, I don't know. I just think that there's, you know, I'm bullish on this defense. I think they're fun to watch and there's some turnover there. But I didn't like them moving on from Jonathan Grenard. And, you know, he's at Philadelphia. We didn't touch on that.

But like, I don't know. I think that, you know, yeah, you make room for Dallas Turner, who was really good last year when you gave him playing time. And I think he's like an actual full-on, all-downs defensive end will, you know, stop the run and get after the quarterback. So pretty bullish on him. But, I mean, it's nice to have three guys, you know, and giving him up for some stuff and keeping him in conference.

It wasn't great. But I don't know. I'm with you. like Juan Jennings is kind of a dog when he plays. It's a nice upgrade for them. Yeah, exactly. So it's, I don't know. I mean, I think they're going to be competitive in most of their division games.

Like competitive, if not like beat the Bears once, maybe beat the Packers or Lions once. Like I just wouldn't be that surprising as to like be close to 500 or maybe, you know, win two games in the division. Caleb Banks draft was a little surprising. But like Jalen Redman, who played awesome for them last year. Yeah, there's just a lot of nice pieces and stuff that I like there. They'll continue to have questions about their cornerback room.

That'll remain a question. But if I kind of had that question about Minnesota, every year that Brian Flores has been there, and they find ways to kind of generate pressure at a good time and kind of wreak havoc and if they can stay healthy, they'll be interesting. So kind of lean over on Minnesota there. How about the South?

Again, division, no one wanted to win last year. Panthers did in the end. You know, tiebreakers got weird and almost got really weird there. Still, the Buccaneers have an interesting roster. And, you know, Baker's probably, the quarterback we probably trust in most of the division, which is, you know, speaks to, why everyone's pretty flat in this division.

So any thoughts here on the NFC South? I think the Norlands is really interesting. Like that's kind of my, they like went on a big run at the end of the year. Tyler Shogh, looks like he has some juice. He draft Jordan Tyson. Offensive line is kind of shaping in the right direction. Defense still is a lot of question marks.

That's for sure. I think that could be a problem. Coverage could be okay. I have them like a little bit above average, like in terms of a team. But if you give the schedule, I have them like closer to like eight wins, eight and a half wins than seven and a half wins.

So I think I think it over on the Saints could be pretty interesting. And I think this division is very much up for grabs, not super into the Falcons, not super into. I think the bucks are fine. Maybe you saw Baker's arm there. You see that video. It was like purple like midseason from,

I don't know, just like how injured he was. So I wouldn't be surprised to see Tampa Bay have like a small bounce back here, but not super into Atlanta or Carolina. So I think they kind of fall and I think that, you know, the Saints end up climbing here. The Saints might be my favorite win total on the entire board at seven and a half. I just, you know, maybe it's even a division bat.

I'm just, yeah, I'm kind of in. I'm kind of in on kind of in on all of it. Like I'm, I'm okay with, I'm okay with a lot of the defensive pieces. I think that they get healthy this year a little bit at safety something like Julian Blackman missed most of the year. Jonas Sanker, I think I really liked him, but I think he was playing out of position. He was playing like free safety. He should play like, I think he might play like slot corner for them. And again, kind of in that like Caleb Downs, you know, Cooper DeGine role, closer to the line of scrimmage, you can cover guys in the slot.

I'm okay with their cornerback room. If Martin Emerson can stay a little bit healthy, I really like the Kayne Ellis signing because Kate Nellis is a linebacker that is basically just a default defensive end. You can blots him a ton. I don't know. He's interesting. I like some of their defensive front pieces too. I think Christian Miller was a nice piece for them in the draft.

Chase Young's been really good for a couple years there. Carl Grantson missed a ton of time. It's been really good when he's been healthy. I'm thinking anything out of like Brian Brisee or Tyree Wilson, a couple of round one picks from a couple years ago. I don't know. There's depth here. And then on the offensive side,

invest, you know, quarterback last year, more wide receiver pieces. Like, you know, I don't think Camaro back is a bad thing. Like, you figure it out. Like, you'd rather, I don't think either of us, like, ATN much, but like both of them combined,

they're probably, probably fine. Like, I just think there's enough pieces here in the division that no one really jumps out at for seven and a half. I think there's some, some opportunities there. So, yeah, I like that one.

I like it quite a bit. I don't know what the division price is, but that's interesting. Yeah, I don't know either. We can pull that real quick. But, yeah, I mean, E-TN's way better than what they had last year. Like, I'd hurt Kamara and, like, Odrick Esk-M-A and, like, I don't know, there was just like a bunch of bums that they were tossing out there.

It is interesting they started the season, seven-point dogs against the Lions at the Detroit and then seven-and-point dogs at the Ravens. And then at the end of the season, I mean, they have a really good stretch after that with, like, very winnable games. But then at the end of the season, they have to play the Bucks twice and the Falcons and the Panthers in four of their five of the last six games, I think. So with the Cardinals in between. So that's, I mean, it's just going to make or break their season.

Like the last like five games in the season. That's like you could literally be, I mean, basically we saw last one. You're basically in the last place in the division and then win all those games and be in first. So I don't know there's anything actionable betting-wise off that. But I would say if you do back the Saints here, don't panic early, maybe wait till week two. If you think that they lose both games, I think right now, gun to the head, I would take them plus seven and a half against the Ravens right now. You know, I think that's kind of a fun look. Yeah, I think that's probably some, I think it's probably some good advice there.

Tampa Bay, I feel like Ruben Bain. I feel like it's like a, I think if you want to play Tampa Bay stuff, I'd almost rather just play like some chalky Ruben Bain defensive rookie of the year. It's like, again, not a great direct pivot. But I think that if Tampa Bain's up being really good, it's because he stayed healthy all year and he was awesome. But I think that that's definitely within the range of outcomes. I think he's a dog.

and yeah, for him to follow that late in the draft. And Yaya Diabi is another guy that, you know, I don't know what your model says on Yaya Diabi. It's another guy that I think the underlying stats are probably better than like the, you know, raw numbers or maybe what the analytics or the, you know, the public would tell you. But, you know, does Diabi rate out well or anything on the Bucks defense? Yeah, sorry.

So the Bucks D here, defensive grade. It's interesting because their defensive defense does. really great all that well and i'm interested why um so it's here can look it's not a great linebacker core um you know laonte david retired but he was kind of in at the end last year they lost jamaal dean and didn't do much to replace him um you know it's just not a safety room is is decent you know vivaa is great when he's in the lineup but the rest of well they brought in a shot Robinson too so I don't know yeah there's like I don't know I think it should be better than what it's getting credit for to be honest right now I'm looking just looking at the individual players

I mean Sabasi Dennis was probably one of the guys that was competing with those uh bangles linebackers in terms of coverage grades yeah um he might not be on the field much this year though right exactly what about you think Benjamin Morrison is going to see much time this is like he was okay last year so you know he's another guy that you know missed a ton of time at Notre Dame. He was drafted coming off of an ACL. I think he's going to be their perimeter corner, him with McCullum and then Parrish. I love Parrish in the slot.

But I'm not sure that's a coverage thing as much as just like, I don't know, it's like 5, 7, but he will put his nose into your chest, which, you know, those are guys that have an affinity for naturally. But, yeah, I don't know. Morrison's okay. He was really good at Notre Dame before we got hurt. Yeah, I think that's why their grade is bad is because PFF did not like Morrison. And they have them like 200 out of 203 corners that qualified or something like that.

So you got a really bad grade. And then they have a couple of like just a lot of average dudes and then like two or three that are like well above average here. So yeah, I don't know. Maybe that's something to look into. As we go through this process, it's kind of interesting to see like, okay, it should probably be closer to like an average defense than like right now it's below average, which is probably just wrong. There's a lot of Minnesota here in the sense that like it's a team that's going to blitz a lot.

they're actually pretty solid up front. They have some depth. They can, you know, blitz at the second level. And can the coverage behind it hold up, right? Can you get home? Can you pressure the quarterback? Can you rush decisions to kind of hide some of your extended coverage issues? So there are some decent Minnesota corollaries, I think, in terms of what they're going to do there.

So, yeah, yeah, that's interesting. You need to, a lot of young guys in the secondary, they need to kind of step up. So, yeah, I kind of shared on why I'm down in the, the Panthers, I mean, I don't know, like I said on our pod the other day, they didn't really have like a premier edge. They did spend money and went out and got Jalen Phillips, who I like, but just, I don't think he's earned that yet. It's like he got a premier paycheck. It was pretty solid for the Eagles last year after they traded for him from Miami. But like he just cannot stay healthy consistently.

I have coverage questions, you know, opposite of J.C. Horn. I don't know. It's a, it's a team that like I'm just kind of down on in the market. seems to be kind of moving positively there. And then the Falcons, I don't know. The Fansky's there. I don't know what's going on to quarterback. It's going to be, I think, a disappointing left-hander.

I think that's all we know so far. Yeah. It's not going to be good. The receiver room's bad, right? I mean, like, it's just Drake London and what? And Kyle Pitts and then. Zekias and John Dotson, I think. If you're into that.

Zachari Branch. Yeah, Zachary Branch. Good for props. Like, is a guy going to run like, you know, two and a half yard A dot and catch three balls and fall down. But like, he's not winning. He's not beating anybody in the perimeter. Yeah, it's just, it's tough. It's tough.

Yeah. No more, no Falcons or Panthers. I think we're both kind of like. Yeah. Out on the Saints. Yeah. All right, the N.S.C. West. Assuming everyone stays healthy, which, you know, is a big, big if.

But like, you know what I mean? The big pieces. Do you see? a scenario where the Rams, Seahawks, and Niners aren't playoff teams? Because I really don't unless they had, it's either cluster injuries or obviously, quarterback injuries. No, it's really interesting because right now we have the Rams. I have the Rams is the best team in the league.

And then, you know, the Seahawks or the Niners is the second best team in the league, which I keep trying to knock them down and trying to find ways to like peg them down. Because I'm like, I don't think that they're the second best team in the league. But I just can't. Like, it's just not working. And so because just because like quarterback coach like efficiency there is like too strong to basically like knock in the model. So like herty's just been obviously super efficient when healthy. Signed Mike Evans.

Kiddle obviously gets a heavy weight when it went healthy too. O line, you know, I don't like I didn't expect the no grade this highly. I have them as one of the better ones. And that's not that far off base from like Mike Clay. I think I had him fifth. I think I'm like third or fourth, something like that. So again, like all these things started to have. up running back i was christ macfrey definitely some defensive questions um but just based on how this

works like offices weighted a lot more than defense so um i thought that was interesting then seattle is like kind of another model breaker it feels like in another way like they have some good players but they i don't know if they're like necessarily the best roster on paper we're just like so dominant because of coaching because of you know freak players who like didn't necessarily grade out individually but like as a unit were awesome so um so yeah i agree with you those three teams i mean just really, really tough to make a case for the Cardinals to do anything outside of them not being that bad, but they're just facing, I mean, six games against these guys is just really tough, like you said before. Yeah, really tough. And then we touched on earlier, just the late season by when you're

trying to figure out what's going out of the quarterback's position. You have an entirely new, you know, first year head coach, those things. If you just, if you just put the brakes on for a minute, get your breath, figure out what's going on. I would think a by week in the middle of the season would be helpful instead of probably week 14 when you're not looking at a playoff pitcher scenario, that's a little bit tougher and kind of how the schedule works against you. So I think week 14 is probably too late to have buys anyway, but that's especially rough for that team. It's also too. I mean, they draft like what, Carson back in like the mid second or third. Like it's not like he's some good prospect. He's like old was never really like a talent elevator at any point in his

career like I guess he he was supposed to be like I think he was a highly rated high school recruit if I remember correctly and was supposed to be good and then it's just been fine like his whole career basically um he was throwing to that one guy Tony uh in Miami who was sick uh that guy's very good and I mean that obviously helps we see that every year in college a wide receivers bail out of quarterback so like I don't I mean they can throw them in there it's not going to matter I think that's probably a better option for them to like win now or be competent but there's still not going to be very good. I mean, it's just brutal schedule.

Brutal. It was fun and props last year. I mean, and that was just shucking the ball, right? So he feels like he's got a little leverage to hold out and figure some stuff out. But like, I mean, it was like 55 attempts. It just felt like every week. Like you knew how they were playing.

They didn't even mess around with anything else. So it is interesting that they, from a roster standpoint, grade out okay, probably better than a four and a half win team. But again, the schedule quarterback questions. I think there's just a lot of things working against them. And not running to bet under on the four and a half, but like, so it's interesting because they, like their skill position, like skill positions hold like a reasonable weight like in the model.

And so obviously if you have like Michael Wilson, Marvinerson Jr., trade McBride, and then you draft Jeremiah love, like, you're not a bad team. Like, you know, it's like you're not like terrible. But then the rest of the roster is like kind of kind of dog shit. it's a pretty tough, like, balance there. And then you factor in the schedule. So has them as, like, one of the biggest outliers in terms of, like,

even with bad quarterback in terms of, like, should go over their win total. And I'm not just not betting that. I mean, that's just, like, bad. And has them as like the seventh worst team instead of, like, the markets right now, which I'm like as the worst team or second worst team, but besides Miami in terms of, like, win totals. I know, we touched on. It's so top heavy and it's priced insane.

Just the envisioning a scenario where you have Aaron Donald, Kobe Turner, Byron Young, and Miles Garrett with their hand in the dirt. It's kind of wild. It's kind of wild. The ability to figure out how you're going to stop that to give multiple people there, one-on-one, matchups is, I don't know, considering that you have an elite trio at corner with Quentin Lake, Trent McDuffie and Jalen Watson. Again, sometimes these things are just fun if they can happen and we can stay healthy and see what the upside of that is because it sounds like a lot of fun and terrifying for the

opposition. I mean, it just makes it so hard for opposing offices to do anything because then you can just like drop everyone and then put keep four and rotate them. because he got, you know, oh yeah, like five, six guys at that point who can all play.

And, I mean, Puna Ford should be getting snaps. You know, Brandon Fisk has been really good. Josiah Stewart, who was, I thought awesome in limited fashion last year.

Like Deshawn Johnson. Like, they got guys. They got a bunch of guys. So, and that's, that's without Aaron Donald. All of a sudden,

flopping in the middle there for, I don't know, 50, 60% of snaps in game. Like, yeah, it'd be, It just would be a lot of fun as a football fan to watch. And maybe not a lot of fun from a betting standpoint

because they'll be double-digit favorites in every game. And that's not super fun to handicap. But yeah, it just would be cool to watch because they could wreck people. Last note I have is that I think Terrence Ferguson is going to play more. I'm buying the drumbeat on him being like their shoe in wide receiver three instead of like Kobe Parkinson playing tight end a lot. And then like Jordan Whittington, I think,

or early and I think they lost two to at well went to the dolphins as well so like why receiver one in Miami so yeah um yeah so like I think that I think that's kind of a fun note too just for like props fantasy stuff like that yeah good call maybe some early season stuff you can pick off before the markets adjust so yeah yeah those are uh playoff teams man I mean just really hard to envision a scenario where again cluster injuries quarterback injuries those things make a ton of difference I mean like you know obviously pretty or, you know, even like Bosa again for San Francisco, that gets tricky without him.

You know, there's some situations in Seattle where they could, you know, a key injury could happen. But otherwise, man, buzz saws. And then teams are fighting for very few wildcard spots because, you know, they just aren't that many to go around. So saints are my favorite here, but probably commanders not too far behind. But it sounds like outside of the lions, you're kind of aligned here a little bit. Yeah, I think those three are probably my three favorite, like early.

NFC looks. And as I mentioned, I'll probably start releasing some plays in the Discord. I'm looking for a little more availability on the prop stuff. I have like six to ten that I like that, I don't know. I think I might maybe training camp starting up soon. Maybe I'll just get those out there just in case because, you know, I think things are, that's some things start moving. It's like the reports catch up to where we're at.

We do get a report on, you know, ELEC running over Calvin Ridley or splitting time or, you know, Calvin Ridley on the roster bubble, the 675 yard line, which he wouldn't even hit if he played the whole season as a starter, is going to just go off the board, you know? So a lot of downside risk there for stuff like that. So probably get some stuff out pretty soon. What about Gunner Helm? You're going to fight off Gunner Helm in there? That's true. Yeah.

I like Gunner Helm is like a 19th round pick in fantasy, by the way. I think that's just like egregious. Like it's a nice thing. Yeah, he's good and he's going to play a ton. They ship Chig off to Washington. So. So we're kind of aligned here, a little bit more on the on the NFC side. So I put Minnesota in there too.

I lean there, but I kind of want to see some things play themselves out. But anyway, check the show notes. You can find more information of all the things that Circa has going on. Circa Million, Circa Survivor, lots of great stuff. Check that out. Let us know if you have any questions. We'll be out there for that this year in Vegas. So happy to answer any questions there for you if you're not sure of what's going on with that.

You can find move of the line wherever you listen to podcast. smooth line on YouTube as well. Subscribe so you don't miss a show. We'll be back again, you know, four times in your feed this week. We're going to do it four times again next week. So for Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks, sir.