Move The Line - NFL Bets to CRUSH Sportsbooks in Week 11

Episode Date: November 18, 2022

Free NFL Bets for Week 11! Betting experts Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan & John Daigle share their top NFL bets for Week 11 of the 2022 NFL season for FREE! Join them as they divulge the best odds and lin...es so you can get the best number at your favorite sportsbook! Timestamps:0:00 Intro2:38 LIONS @ GIANTS Bets10:49 JETS @ PATRIOTS Bets17:11 BENGALS @ STEELERS Bets24:05 EAGLES @ COLTS Bets30:16 CHIEFS @ CHARGERS Bets40:08 COWBOYS @ VIKINGS Bets47:07 Final Betting Thoughts Want a FREE 4for4 Betting Subscription? Deposit $10 into a new BetMGM account using promo code 4FOR4 👉🏼 https://4for4.com/go/BetMGMSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow John on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/notJDaigleVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TbYo4X4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Hello and welcome to Move the Line, I'm Ryan Noonan, Joey Gere, by my friends Connor Allen and John Daigle. How we doing fellas? Great. Enjoying the cold weather, how about you daigle how we doing fellas great uh enjoying the the cold weather how about you daigle uh i've gotten more used to cold now that i had a true chicago winter in my blood before um i actually just got back with a little six and a half mile run 25 degrees and snow out there so yeah doing well yeah cold runs not like freezing cold but like nice like that but those are those
Starting point is 00:00:44 are good runs was it also like those those are my people because you know the other psychos running in 20 degrees in snow like those people also hurting like those feed me those are all my people who are also just trying to get their life right now i think it's one of the best like internet clips of all time it was like some news channel i want to say it was like philadelphia and they you know it was like a first snowstorm of the year and they caught this couple that was out running together. And they were talking about how like they love running in the snow and they love running in the cold. And then they're like, all right, bye.
Starting point is 00:01:12 And then they pan away and they get like maybe 20 yards down the road. And the woman absolutely eats it. Just de-cleat her, legs go up right flat on her back. She just kind of, you know, waves it off like nothing happened, but yeah, good times. Hopefully that wasn't you. Not enough snow on the ground, I think, for that yet. Thankful that you're back here knocking custom, ready to talk about week 11.
Starting point is 00:01:34 We're going to be live here. Moving forward, we've been here 6.45 p.m. Eastern on Thursdays, like we are tonight, leading you into Thursday football. Thanksgiving's next week, and then other schedule issues, particularly on my end. We're pivoting back to our original day, which is Wednesday. So moving forward, live every Wednesday night, 630 Eastern,
Starting point is 00:01:54 discussing our favorite games on the board and taking your questions. If you are hanging out with us on YouTube live, we would love to answer anything that you're looking at this week. If you're doing so subscribe, so you don't miss a show jump in the chat as well. Again, lots of other great content here on the four, four YouTube page.
Starting point is 00:02:11 Let us know what your favorite week 11 bet is side or total. All right. Before we jump into this weekend, Slated Games, we want to remind folks that we have two episodes of Move the Line each week, both available to stream here on YouTube, also available in podcast form wherever you consume your podcasts.
Starting point is 00:02:29 In addition to the game preview here on Thursday nights, and again, moving to Wednesday nights, 7.30 Eastern. Move the Line prop drop live 2 p.m. Eastern every Friday. Pat Mayo joins Connor and myself. Check that out again on the YouTube feed or the podcast feed. And again, kind of rolling
Starting point is 00:02:46 there, having a lot of fun with that. It gets really interactive too. We like to get your questions. So again, subscribe so you don't miss a show. And again, we are halfway through the season and our subscription prices at four for four reflect that. Perhaps fantasy season's falling apart. Perhaps you did not take Daigle's waiver wire advice and you did not scoop up Christian Watson. You need a sweat on the weekend. Now is the time to scoop up a betting subscription at 444. Gets you access to everything on the site, every sport, article,
Starting point is 00:03:12 tool, from now until the end of February. I think the subscriber-only Discord is the crown jewel. Again, you get all of our bets pushed there and notifications instantly. NBA, college basketball, MMA, World Cup, that's coming here. If you'd like to dabble on any of the Pick'em sites, like PrizePicks, Underdog, Connor continues to crush
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Starting point is 00:03:54 All right, guys. Lions and Giants. Threes across the board. Totals out at 45. FanDuel looks like they have a rogue 44.5. Lions suddenly winners of two straights. They picked on the NFC North. Giants did their best to try to let the Texans sneak in
Starting point is 00:04:09 and steal that one last week. They held on and were gifted losses from both the Cowboys and the Eagles. David, I'll let you get kicked off here with Lions and Giants. If only the Bears threw more than six yards in the fourth quarter, maybe they don't get knocked off by the Lions last week.
Starting point is 00:04:24 But it is a good spot for the Giants because what they want to do in averaging the second most rushing attempts in the league is exactly where the Lions get pummeled. The fourth highest explosive rushing percentage allowed on the year and five yards per carry, in particular to opposing running backs, which as we know, Barkley fresh off a career high,
Starting point is 00:04:43 35 carries last week. We expect that to be the same going forward. Also tacking on Daniel Jones, who's averaging 7.5 carries per game this year too. So I do think the Giants can kind of have their way here. And I don't know if it's necessarily a good spot for the Lions offense, but I do know that in Wink Martindale being the only defensive coordinator calling a blitz on over 42 percent of dropbacks uh we know exactly where Jared Goff goes to because Amonra St. Brown has accounted for 38 percent of this team's targets since T.J. Hawkins was
Starting point is 00:05:20 traded and more importantly he's averaged a 26 percent target share for 2.5 yards per route run against the Blitz this year so Jared Goff has thrown three touchdowns the last two games without Hawkinson all three have gone to a different tight end with a different name it's hard to pick where Jared Goff is going to throw these touchdowns but more importantly they're getting the ball to their best player so I do like the Giants I don't know if I like them enough to cover but I think it is a sneaky spot for the Giants offense here. It would be very strange if they threw two different tight ends with the same name. That would be weird. If the Giants are real,
Starting point is 00:05:52 Connor, they've got to take care of the Lions at home, right? Yeah, I kind of like the under here for some of the reasons you're mentioning. A lot of it's because the Giants blitz a ton, get pressure at the 10th highest rate. Golf under pressure this season, 45% completion rate. I mean, just really has struggled.
Starting point is 00:06:06 And I think that maybe some of that's because he didn't have on Monroe St. Brown, but I think that you can hammer his reception props. That'll probably be like six and a half. I think. And over there is an interesting look, but just in general for this game, I think the under it opened at 46 and a half now sitting at 45.
Starting point is 00:06:20 And we're looking at, despite the Detroit's defense being like legit, really bad. They've gotten into some of these like lower scoring games, actually, surprisingly. And the Giants, the Giants, especially to Giants have actually gone under 46 points in all but one game, 49 point game against Packers. So, you know, I expect this Giants defense to kind of make golf's life tough and like keep this game is like more of a, you know, a run focus game on the Giants side. And just like the slow paced, boring with golf, not able to do anything. Yeah. Both teams should have some success here on the ground. And sometimes that's just going to lead to faster game being played, right? You know,
Starting point is 00:06:52 clock keeps ticking. Uh, you have success moving the ball and you continue to run on early downs. I think the lions we've seen have been very content to do that at times. I like the almond raw look. I do think six and a half is probably where it opens. And I think that's probably still not high enough. I mean, what, 11 targets last week, he got to almost six and a half in the first quarter, got absolutely just pounded. And I have similar notes and numbers on Amon Raw's target rate versus blitz versus non-blitz like Dago referenced too. So I think it's a pretty good spot. Goff is actually, I don't know, we see a decent amount of man too. 7.9 yards adjusted net yards per attempt versus man, which ties Mahomes for sixth most in the league. And Amon Ra, 3.9 yards per outrun against man this year as well. It's the fifth highest in the league. So the Giants do a lot of man behind that
Starting point is 00:07:41 heavy blitz rate too. So not a bad spot for them if they decide to pass i just think it's such a narrow target tree where where they do it so probably look for aman roth and thinking that there's going to be any sort of explosion explosion blow up spot for for golf or anything like that so kind of with you guys don't really have a great feel for anything sides or total i just think that you know the giants want to be taken seriously you're basically based on the market you're a coin flip at home against the lions like you got to kind of have to cement yourself here again tough spot next week short week on thursday thanksgiving against the cowboys like that's a really important game in the division so yeah you got to be able to take care of business here against the lions and uh would look for them to do so um dagle any concerns with the
Starting point is 00:08:25 passing game with the giants it looks like you know wandell's watching here i'm not sure if the hamstring injury is going to be a problem here actually have uh darius slayton as the league leader in yards per outrun against man this season probably should see a decent amount of it here i mean i don't know i don't know what your thoughts are with the giants passing game, which is kind of really hard to pick on. I love, uh, in general, Darius Slayton,
Starting point is 00:08:50 especially because we saw Kenny Gale after a second drop in the first half last week, sent to the bench. Darius Slayton comes back on glued in two wide sets. And literally that very next possession to open the third quarter scores a 54 yard touchdown a yard per outrun. As you mentioned against man coverage, also leads this team Yard per outrun, as you mentioned, against man coverage. Osher leads this team in yards per outrun,
Starting point is 00:09:08 way ahead of Wando Robinson and Richie James since he entered the rotation. Darius Slayton in week four and a 20.9% target share in his last three games. Daniel Jones and him have rapport going back a couple years. Also remember Slayton, a fifth round player, but that was because of off-field issues. Dame Brugler actually in the draft ranked him as a top 50 player, I believe it was. So he's an uber talent
Starting point is 00:09:34 who has been fighting for his roster spot for the past two years behind a Joe Judge and Dave Gettleman roster, and they don't understand personnel whatsoever. And now he's finally come on strong. So no, I do believe in the passing game actually for however much they're going to pass. And I'm with you. You called out the Daniel Jones rushing thing. I mean, it's like the first note I made this week on just Danny Jones rushing yards. It's been kind of a really clean recipe this season, heavy man, heavy blitz. Those quarterbacks are going over their rushing
Starting point is 00:10:03 prop consistently. Uh, and the lions have allowed 41.3, I think, which is the second highest rate in the league. So, yeah, Danny Jones on the ground. Pretty good spot. I mean, Justin Fields, 8.3 yards per attempt against this defense through the air. That's not how Justin Fields is getting there, but through the air last week.
Starting point is 00:10:19 I remember Tua had 300 yards and three touchdowns. That's all he does now. So, no, I mean, the Lions defense has not gotten any better. They remain as bad as ever. All right, next, we have the Jets on the road in New England. Mostly three and a halves. Right now, there are some juice threes. Total 38 or 38 and a half.
Starting point is 00:10:39 I really want to get your guys' thoughts here. I know Clark played a Giants plus three and a half. I'm sorry, a Jets plus three and a half here. We just played this game a few weeks ago. New England closed as a three-point favorite on the road and won handily. Not a lot's changed, although the Patriots are actually going to be healthier here
Starting point is 00:10:59 than they were just a couple weeks ago. They played that game without center David Andrews. He's trending to be back. Their best defensive tackle and run stuffer, Christian Barrymore, and safety Kyle Duggar, who does a lot of different stuff for them. I think they're going to all be good to go this week. We have two sizable trends, and these are trends outside of like the Patriots have dominated.
Starting point is 00:11:20 They won like 13 straight and like nine and four, not those trends. Bill Belichick tormenting zach wilson and zach wilson being atrocious specifically against man coverage and the first matchup zach wilson 4 of 13 with a negative 0.52 epa per drop back it's hard to do um on the season versus man wilson has a 45.6% completion percentage, 36.1% success rate, and is averaging a just mind-numbing three adjusted net yards per attempt. What in the world, Connor, am I missing here? I wouldn't say a whole lot other than the Patriots offense
Starting point is 00:12:01 just isn't very good, and the Jets defense has shown that they're legit. That was actually my notes about Zach Wilson here. I mean, just isn't very good. And the Jets defense has shown that they're legit. I, I, that was actually my notes about Zach Wilson here. I mean, just so, so bad also has completed 11 of 52 passes under pressure this year. 21% of his passes have been completed,
Starting point is 00:12:18 which is just shocking. So I like, I don't know if I love laying the Patriots at three and a half. I do think that it's probably the right side. And if there were some threes early in the week, I would have loved to have grabbed that. But I just don't really if I love laying the Patriots at three and a half. I do think that it's probably the right side. And if there were some threes early in the week, I would have loved to have grabbed that. But I just don't really have much confidence or faith in the Patriots offense. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:12:31 They go to you. I feel like it's just Mac Jones has played like bad. I mean, I don't know. Yeah. The only issue is that nothing has changed from this matchup. The personnel is the exact same. And the Patriots are at home this time too and zach
Starting point is 00:12:45 wilson last time they played only completed 48 of his passes three picks in that one and he threw for 355 a season high but 95 of that was on the final drive and they were down two scores just playing a garbage time because they had already lost so with the same personnel remandre damian healthy matt jones was under center that game as well. Zach Wilson was under center for the Jets. It's the same wide receiver rotation. I don't know what has changed at all from that game. And the way that the Jets are constructed defensively, and I agree, Matt Jones has been terrible.
Starting point is 00:13:15 Yes. Like not even like you cannot poke a hole in that at all. Like man zone, it's just been bad. Jets on the perimeter, very good. Jets in the slot, not so good. Michael Carter has not been great in the slot. And that was the play. I played Jacoby Myers last time on his yards. His reception prop was four and a half.
Starting point is 00:13:33 He caught like nine balls, and he went off. What do they do differently? I don't care if Devontae Parker plays or not. You hide the other guys on the outside. You play Jacoby in the slot, and you pick them apart. And the offensive line for the J jets continues to get beat up like they are continuing to suffer injuries patriots got a lot of pressure they did not get home as much there they did not get a bunch of sacks only get two sacks 18 pressures last time like that's not sustainable either and obviously it still
Starting point is 00:14:00 worked he still was unsuccessful and erratic but like man they're just gonna get home a little bit more and they are home too so yeah i totally agree connor like it's hard to be bullish and lay even for the three and a half there are threes out there still on new england i just think it's the right side i i don't know i'm not just that it's the zach wilson thing man like i there's no way the belichick rewatched the three games that he's had last three games against them he's like hey we should do something way different because this guy is slowly figuring it out. It's like, no, let's turn up the heat.
Starting point is 00:14:30 Let's play more man and let's blitz him even more. They blitzed the highest rate, 42% of the dropbacks in that game last time against them. That's by far New England's highest in the season. They're just going to do it again. And Jets team total, 17, 17 and a half under. I think it's a great look. I just, I think they struggle. So yeah, Jacoby, Jacoby 17, 17 and a half under. I think it's a great look.
Starting point is 00:14:46 I just, I think they struggle. So yeah, Jacoby, Jacoby just opened 48 and a half. I've been looking for this on my list. That'll be a play for me for sure. Over four and a half receptions when that comes out. Great look as well. Yeah, it looks like three on MGM right now. That's like, there's win bet too,
Starting point is 00:15:02 but no one bets on that shit. So, you know what I mean? Like I got to play books that people actually use and are not trying to sell for one sixth of what they valued themselves at the year prior. But yeah, it was like I went through his game prior. It was like he had a 63 yarder Denzel Mims and a 54 yarder to dig Garrett Wilson. Just does not seem very sticky week to week. But yeah, I mean, like if you had told me the spread was like, the issue is,
Starting point is 00:15:26 I don't know. I need, I just have a trouble mentally. Like after three, it's like, there's like, there's just this gap where it's like four and six, you know,
Starting point is 00:15:33 but it's like, I'd almost feel like I'm like at this point after three, I'm like, I feel like I'm almost like laying a touchdown at that point. So it's like, I know it's not that way, but it's just like a mental block where it's like, okay,
Starting point is 00:15:42 they have to win by four, four or six essentially. And you don't really get that three anymore. Whereas I feel really good about having the three as being a push or, uh, you know, a win potentially at two and a half. So, yeah. Yeah. I get that for sure. It's Patrick.
Starting point is 00:15:55 Nothing for me. I understand wanting to have the hook and feeling good about three and a hook. Um, like, you know, like Clark did, but, uh, yeah, I don't know. I just, I can't get there with – you got to think, too. The Nuggets coming off of a bye, right? So, like, what's their MO historically? Like, Belichick, they play their best football this time of year. They have a young team.
Starting point is 00:16:14 Again, like, I just feel like if they come out and Mac Jones isn't playing a little bit better and can't take advantage of this defense coming off of a bye, the Patriots are a fade moving forward. Like, they have got to use this bye week to figure out and self-scout, figure out what are we doing wrong, what's not working, what's working, to kind of get back to Mac Jones, who looks completely different than the guy he was last year.
Starting point is 00:16:36 So I'm just going to go on the 23 years that we have of Belichick self-scouting pretty well and figuring out what's going to work here, and they handle the business against the Jets. So, all right, next, another divisional game. Cincinnati on the road in Pittsburgh. Cincy is minus four on DK. It looks like most other books have three and a half, which is interesting to see. Last time we saw this Steelers defense healthy was really I mean we saw it last week
Starting point is 00:17:06 a little bit Mickey Fitzpatrick wasn't there but TJ Watt back in the lineup last week a big part of why this defense shut down the Bengals and upended them in week one and really limited the Saints last week just 10 first downs less than 200 total yards of offense and that was a Saints team that was traveling on a short week because bangles team's different coming off of a bye uh welcoming dj reader back to the lineup as well which i think is pretty massive uh the splits with and without reader are pretty massive per true media uh at the athletic they noted that with reader versus the run this season. The Bengals have a 74.4 success rate on the ground with a 1.34 yards per carry before contact allowed. Without reader, it was down to 55.8% and a 1.89 yards allowed before contact. Pretty drastic difference. That difference is equivalent to the number one run defense to the
Starting point is 00:18:02 27th run defense. Dago, I'll let you get started with this one. Pretty good divisional matchup. It's a tough read for any side, honestly, because TJ Watt, as you mentioned, really makes the difference here. The past two years with TJ Watt off the field, opposing quarterbacks are averaging over nine yards per attempt compared to 6.4 yards attempt when he's out there. And we saw the last time this Bengals offensive line
Starting point is 00:18:26 tried to protect an elite pass rusher like Myles Garrett. They were owned. That offense didn't move at all. That offense also didn't have Jamar Chase, which he won't be back this week as well. I still question when he'll be back. Zach Taylor has pulled the rug over our eyes two of the last three seasons with Joe Mixon's health.
Starting point is 00:18:42 So either way, I'm very much worried about this Bengals offense, which I have zero respect for without Jamar Chase. three seasons with Joe Mixon's health. So either way, I'm very much worried about the Spingles offense, which I have zero respect for without Jamar Chase. Yes, they pulverized the Panthers, but everyone except the Falcons have had no issues getting over on the Panthers. So, all right. Yeah. Against the Panthers. So I'm back and forth, honestly, because at the same time, the Steelers came out of their, or Steelers came out of their buy last week, hiding Kenny Pickett. They got away with 32 running back carries and eight scrambles. That's an offense that didn't have a single run over 20 yards this year.
Starting point is 00:19:11 They had four of them in that game on that short week against the Saints. I don't know if you do that again this week since the Bengals are also getting healthier on defense. So I do expect it to be a lower scoring game. And I genuinely, like I said, given the splits of both teams, the struggles and weaknesses both teams have, I genuinely don't have a read on the side. Connor, where are you at in this one? Yeah, I mean, also second divisional game here.
Starting point is 00:19:32 First game produced 43 points. You're looking at a total of 41. I still lean under here. I think it's going to be kind of a struggle both sides offensively. What I noted, what I thought was interesting too, is with this Bengals team I was looking into, because so, you know, they had this shift or like mid--season it was like they started the first few games were heavy on her center they were running like 50 60 percent only in their shotgun in the shotgun we're not passing
Starting point is 00:19:52 it that much then they shifted to like shotgun one of the highest rates passing at one of the highest rates in the league then Jamar Chase got injured they came out and still did the same thing in the first week and then against the Panthers they went i mean i just don't think we can put much stock into it it was like 58 or something like that uh shotgun right which is their lowest of the season essentially at that point but i don't really think that that's really applicable to the situation uh just because of like how quickly that game got out of hand so i think that they could still go shotgun here a bunch potentially hit some of you know like and if they're going to do that, I think that the focus of how we attack this game is a little bit different here. Um, but just in general, I just don't expect either team to have too much success. Minka practicing. I
Starting point is 00:20:33 think he plays here. Um, yeah, it's, it's really tough for me to envision a scenario where unless the bangles just like, you know, really push the pace, get going, hit the Steelers. Then we see Kenny pick it. I mean, they're not afraid to throw the ball 50 times. I mean, we've already seen him do that before. It's just that they have to be down. And if it's anywhere close, they're going to feed Najee and Jalen Warren. Yeah, I mean, I think probably the best way that I would get in this would be that the Steelers has a teaser leg.
Starting point is 00:20:59 That's not super exciting for me. But, again, I think there's better teasers on the board and uh yeah it's it's just uh it's hard i kind of agree with dagle like this is a totally different team without jamar chase they're hoping to get him back next week this is what dagle has been talking about since the preseason we're in it the bangles from this point forward have the hardest schedule in the league and it's like it's not even like a little bit the hardest schedule in the league. And it's like, it's not even like a little bit, the hardest, it's very, very, very, very difficult. And they did nothing to give you any amount of confidence about the way they approach this part of the schedule. Now, again,
Starting point is 00:21:37 now chase comes back next week where they're really hoping for that's that does change things a little bit, but it doesn't mean that this schedule is still not absolutely brutal because back-to-back road games here, you start in the division with Pittsburgh, and then you go back to Tennessee where you had the divisional playoff game last season. But then Kansas City, Cleveland, Tampa, New England, Buffalo, Baltimore to finish up. Probably – and again, Cleveland, that's going to be with Deshaun.
Starting point is 00:22:02 It's at New England in Week 16. That's not a great place to be with Deshaun. It's at New England in week 16. That's not a great place to go in week 16, typically. So yeah, this is a slate for, not for the faint of heart. You got to be the team, like Pittsburgh. You are more talented than if you're going to get into that spot where we think you were in the preseason. Maybe Dago wasn't there in the preseason like a lot of the public was, but this is why he was ringing that bell. I think DJ Reader coming back does help. I think Jamar Chase hopefully coming back. Like I said, they're planning on that next week, but they got to take care of business here. I just don't have confidence laying the four
Starting point is 00:22:35 or even the three and a half. It's probably Pittsburgh or nothing for me, so it probably will end up being nothing. Because again, I don't feel really confident laying with what we've seen from kenny pickett this far either so i just want to get i just want to lose so that dagle can go back and like all those people's tweets that were quote tweeting him after he made the preseason video about cincinnati being the luckiest team in the league or whatever i mean dude those those people were ruthless they were being mean like it was not even just like oh like this is a bad take. This guy doesn't watch any of the games.
Starting point is 00:23:07 This guy doesn't know how to analyze football. I'm like, god damn, you guys got to chill. This is being aggressive. To be fair, it wasn't just tribalist fans either. It was tribalist professionals. It was B-riders. Yeah, it was B-riders. I was like, man.
Starting point is 00:23:19 Unprofessional professionals is what they were. What's going on? Oh, I'm coming. Those likes are coming. Passive-aggressive likes are great. couple of like quote tweet like hi like very passive just like you know nothing just blowing them out would be very entertaining so i'll do some too i got there i got enough vindictive quote tweets i'm angry in these streets nowadays so no we don't need to add to it i'll be fun all right next one philly on the road in indy just shot for this one there are
Starting point is 00:23:46 six and a half out there if you like the philly side sevens if you are inclined to lay the points with the colts here total 44 and a half with mgm hanging a flat 44 uh one weekend jim ursa looks like a genius we had uh jeff saturday uh Went back to a suddenly healthy Matt Ryan, who also benefited from what appeared to be a healthy Jonathan Taylor. The Eagles presented a different challenge this week, though they have been busy in the 48 hours since their first loss, doing their best to bolster their run defense with the signings of Lindale Joseph and Dominick and Sue. Again, this is kind of nine and a half, tens out there,
Starting point is 00:24:24 even look aheads. And, you know And we got, again, working both ways for this to kind of collapse to get down below the seven. Conrad, I'll let you get started with Eagles and Colts. Yeah, it's funny because I think we talked about it last week where we were kind of on the under with Indy in Las Vegas, but it is just unbelievable how bad the Raiders are. I don't put any stock into that game. I mean, literally we talked,
Starting point is 00:24:46 we talked about last week, their, their linebacker retired midweek Waller on IR rent for one. I are like no organ, no buy-in in the locker room. Clearly. Like, I mean, who retires mid season?
Starting point is 00:24:55 I mean, that's just so ridiculous when you're going to play a bigger role. Maybe you get more money to follow. You want to play a bigger role. You didn't even, he didn't even want it. That's how you know that the organization is so bad. So like I put no stock in that.
Starting point is 00:25:05 We have a pretty big sample of Indy's offense being bad. And in this spot, my only concern with laying the points of Philly here is that the matchup without Jordan Davis, as they saw that in Gompkins-Sue, they had Linval Joseph there to try and shore up the defensive line, is that they've been really bad in run defense without him. And so Jonathan Taylor, they could probably get him going a little bit. I think that they could be a little bit more productive otherwise, but I think they're gonna have like no success passing the ball at all.
Starting point is 00:25:30 Outside of just, you know, screens, Jonathan Taylor, maybe a couple of Michael Pittman throws. So if I had to take a side, it would probably be Philly six and a half and kind of a bounce back spot here,
Starting point is 00:25:40 but I don't really feel too great about it for kind of the reasons that I mentioned here. And in Dominican Sioux, I just wonder how ready will he be? Will there be a certain amount of packages? Because even if he plays a la Roquan Smith's usage in his first game on Monday night with the Ravens against the Saints, like that is enough to silence this Colts team. As you mentioned, just the fact there were, there were 10-aheads, and all because the Eagles lost an Eagles offense, mind you, that had 22 plays through the midway through the third quarter because the commanders just played bully ball
Starting point is 00:26:13 and killed the clock on every single play, which hats off to them. They had an amazing game plan, but it's not like the Eagles did anything wrong, honestly, either. They just got bullied around from Washington stealing the ball the entire time. And so if there is enough plays to get Sue on the field, that soaks up Philadelphia's only weakness in the last month. In the last four games, we've seen Ezekiel Elliott rush for 81 yards. Jalen Warren and Najee Harris combined for six yards per carry. Damian Pierce rushed for 139 yards. And Washington bullied this team, as we we saw for two rushing scores as well.
Starting point is 00:26:46 So if Sue's available, I think it is the counterpoint. And like, it's such an amazing number to bet Philadelphia side. And that's where I'm at with this game. I would think, and again, they were probably someone that's better equipped to speak to this than I would be. But if you're going to plug and play someone on the defensive side, you would think that probably like nose tackle would be the best place to do it, right?
Starting point is 00:27:08 You probably have some stunts and he would need to know kind of what some of those calls are. But like his job is to literally get north and south and clog the lane. It's probably not going to be schematically massively different from team to team. Now, again, there would be some stunts
Starting point is 00:27:24 and some play calls that would be different as far as passing downs and stuff like that. I'd imagine he's probably not even in a lot of those packages, to your point, Dagle. He's probably in there on very clear run-stopping downs or those types of short down and distance stuff, first down, stuff like that. So even more so than a Roquan Smith, who is going to have some coverage responsibilities as a linebacker occasionally, whether it's's a tight end whether it's a wheel route or catching a running back coming out like nose tackle put that bad boy in the middle let him just kind of plug up the middle I think
Starting point is 00:27:54 he'd probably be able to come in and handle a decent amount of work now and we'll have to wait and see but that would be good enough in my opinion we saw Matt Ryan under Jeff Saturday I'll record his fastest time from snap to throw 2.2 seconds third highest among all quarterbacks in the league this past week so that's the game plan is to dump the ball off that's not going to be enough to move the chains against the eagles if they're also plugging the run yeah i think it's also just just interesting too with these teams like coming off like exact opposite games whereas philly lost you know coming know, coming off their first loss of the season, they were just humbled. You know, I feel like just mentally going undefeated is like really hard.
Starting point is 00:28:30 Like they were going to lose eventually and lose a bad one. And then on the other hand, you have Jeff Saturday coming off his first, whenever probably thinking that shit's easy, you know, parks, Frazier dialed up a reasonable game plan. It's just like entire, like opposites meeting here. Like it would not surprise me if Philly won by like 30, you what i mean like and we're everyone's looking at this like oh duh like everyone's just ripping on the most embarrassing head coaching hire of all time and you know a philly team that is awesome top to bottom outside of their literally one problem run defense and they hired or they signed two guys to defend the run yeah actually in the cold team
Starting point is 00:29:01 total like 18 and a half under is probably a pretty good look. Yeah, again, a little bit the more I kind of got into that analysis and was writing it up, I paused on it just because I did have concerns about the Philly Rundy a little bit. But, again, they feel slightly alleviated, and we'll see. I think we'll have probably more of an answer as we get to, like, Friday practice, and we'll find out how, to Dago's point, how much shape or how well the shape that Dominic is in for him to be able to step right in. But yeah,
Starting point is 00:29:28 I just don't expect that we see that kind of offense from the Colts. Again, I think it has a lot to do with the Raiders. They only Eagles only got to do one thing. They stopped the run. They win this game by 20 points. That's it. I agree there. So six and a half out there. I think it's an important shot because you know, six and a half and sevens very, very different key numbers that we want to take a look at. All right, next we have the Chiefs in L.A.
Starting point is 00:29:52 Again, as everyone is when you go and play the Chargers, it's kind of a full home game. Optimistic Injury Report has moved this from Kansas City minus seven down to six. There have been some five and a half. I think five and a half is available on PointsBet currently currently total 51, 51 and a half on FanDuel. I do understand the live movement here a little bit based on the speculative return of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. I feel, I would feel a lot better if that speculation was removed and it was confirmed that they were in. If you're looking at back to chargers, I don't think waiting is a problem. I think you'll still manage to get at least a plus three, three and a half. I think this is probably seven, seven
Starting point is 00:30:30 and a half without them, but I think we have to wait and see here. They historically play them close, Dagle. First matchup was close. The Chargers have played well against them over the last couple of years. Joey Bosa was active in week two, which I think is a notable inactive here for them. He'll obviously be missed. And then the Chiefs are dealing with a bunch of injuries too, with the receiver position. I don't know how much that matters per se for the handicap of this, though. Maybe it ends up where they lean a little bit more on the run. Maybe we see a little bit more Isaiah Pacheco, especially with the Chargers Achilles here being the run defense here. What are your thoughts on this? Again,
Starting point is 00:31:01 another divisional matchup. And Against the Texans, since Justin Herbert initially got injured in this first matchup in week two, against the Texans in week four is the only other time he's been over seven yards per attempt in any other game in that time, as he's been injured himself or been dealing with injuries across
Starting point is 00:31:19 their offensive personnel. But presumably getting back Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, like you, I'll believe it when I see it, but presumably getting them back. As you mentioned, these two teams have played each other very close, even a one-score game, three points the last time they played, and that game reached 51 points. And even in that one, remember, the Chiefs went 4-4 on fourth down as well.
Starting point is 00:31:41 And so I do think there is reason to not only believe in the Chargers offense could be more potent than what they've been maybe not still explosive but more potent and then also that they'll hang around I do like both the Chargers to cover and I like the over still in this game especially if you can get it around 51 51 and a half I've seen it across the board at many numbers depending where you line shop yeah Connor what are your leans here do you need to wait and see or are you willing to kind of get in there speculatively ahead of the game yeah you guys reminded me just now too i believe keenan allen coming off either it was last year or the year before one of his injuries they like you know he was practicing practicing practicing and then like right before the game
Starting point is 00:32:21 they're like oh there's gonna be like a limited packages for him and he ran like 10 routes you, you know, and like, I know each injury varies, but like that, I don't think that that's off the table necessarily that he's just, you know, like literally, you know, limited. And I, that concerns me a little bit here because I think those guys obviously matter a lot as Dago mentioned, like when, when those guys are playing, uh, Herbert has what he needs to just be, you know, the best, one of the best quarterbacks in the league when he doesn't. I mean, it's really hard to beat any defense with Deandre Carter, Josh Palmer and Gerald Everett. You know, it's just, it doesn't matter who you are and you have an assistant that relies on guys getting open in short areas, especially. And I mean, again, those guys just aren't going to get open on a consistent basis. So I think that matters a lot for me. It's kind of just to stay away because of that.
Starting point is 00:33:03 I do agree though, on the Pacheco point, I think that he a lot for me. It's kind of just to stay away because of that. Uh, I do agree though, on the Pacheco point, I think that he should see more work. CH just saw four snaps. They came out saying, Oh, we want to bounce a little bit more. I don't know if I'm really buying that. I think that they're just going to kind of roll with probably roll with
Starting point is 00:33:14 Pacheco, maybe a little bit more CH, but I expect this game plan to be a little bit more run heavy than we expect. Uh, as is so have you shopped any chiefs running backs props yet? Not out yet, but it is on my list.
Starting point is 00:33:24 Yeah. They better have those guys back. They might not even have Gerald ever. He's got a groin injury where he's like, you know, Have you shopped any Chiefs running backs props yet? Not out yet, but it is on my list. Yeah, they better have those guys back. They might not even have Gerald Everett. He's got a groin injury where he's like, you know, maybe limited. He's up in the area here. It's going to be, you know, it's going to be Mike Bandy and Trey Kitty, Trey McKitty here. Like it's all Trey McKitty.
Starting point is 00:33:40 That's at least what they went to last week. Richard, Richard Rogers, who's the back of tight end, hasn't run more than six routes in any game yet this year so we'll see again i think that there's a path to this being a very good game as we typically see in these matchups uh make a lot of sense but yeah this still i don't know any concerns for you dagle around some of the health of the chiefs looks like again micole harman uh is going to be out for a little bit Juju got his bell rung in a big way last week. Some questions there. Continue emergence of Kadarius Toney,
Starting point is 00:34:12 who I think we have some questions about. I mean, not as far as his talent, but his ability to just stay healthy and stay on the field. Any concerns about the Chiefs being able to reach their ceiling here in this matchup? We'll see how they fare. Given the landscape of concussions now in the NFL and how we are rightfully being more precautionary. I don't know if Juju Smith-Schuster gets back out there this week.
Starting point is 00:34:31 Marcus Valdez-Scantling returned to the last game, but now we've seen him, I believe he was limited on Thursday, DMP, something like that. Either way, he returned to that game, but he's been absent from practice, at least on Wednesday. So I don't know. I consider it like the – I'm trying to think of another offense, maybe the Steelers. But either way, I consider the Chiefs what they're doing,
Starting point is 00:34:54 even by accident, better because they're getting more explosive players involved now. Like we're getting Pacheco over CEH. We're getting Kadarius Toney, who now in two games leads the team or leads all wide receivers and targets per outrun we're getting tony over marcus valdez scantling or at least over miko hardman we saw even last week they initially begun the game using tony for hardman's gadget plays inside the 10 yard line and then when they suffered injuries had to get him involved as
Starting point is 00:35:20 exclusively as a wide receiver too that's not a bad thing um hamstring injury clearly non-existent uh not important as he suffered with the giants for the entire time so i think it's actually a good thing that they're creating room for these young good players be interesting to watch i mean the chiefs again mahomes is playing out of this world i mean it's not a typical prop that i feel like every week I put it in my notes. I should take Mahomes over two and a half touchdown passes. I never do it. And I'm like, son of a bitch, it's three touchdown passes and a half every week. So this week I'm betting over two and a half Mahomes touchdown passes
Starting point is 00:35:56 with no analysis other than this guy does this almost all the time. We should just kind of blind bet this. It's almost like we've had some people in our discord who blind bet nick chubb longest rush or you know eagles over you know two and a half two touchdowns in the first half or anything like like just blind bet my homes over two and a half touchdown passes he does a lot my homes is 26 of 36 with 19 touchdowns and one pick inside the 10 yard line this year. It is absolutely insane. That's nuts. I feel the same way about kind of Tony. I know that like, there's some concerns about like, Oh, does he know the playbook? Why isn't he been playing more? I mean, dude,
Starting point is 00:36:32 he is just so good. Like every single time he touches the ball, it's incredible. And there was also some times too, where like the routes he was running, he's sitting in zones. Well, like he's just doing the right things when he is on the field. Um, I don't know. I've heard it's like the New York thing was like an attitude issue. It was like conflict with the coaches. You know, we've heard all that. Obviously it was not,
Starting point is 00:36:49 not really all that injured. I think he's fine. If, if either, I mean, and Hardman got put an IR as well today, I believe. So looking at,
Starting point is 00:36:56 you know, he should be playing a bigger role ASAP. And I don't think Juju plays. So, and I think both can be true. Tony can be a problem for one coaching staff and then just kind of blend in, especially when you have, I mean, when you're playing with Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelsey, hall
Starting point is 00:37:09 of famers, you look around at the giants, who cares? So yeah, sure. Like he had to listen to the person like, you know, Kenny Galladay making all this money and Brian Dable just benches him. Cause he doesn't care. He's like, I'm playing my guys that I think will help us win. Tony didn't help him win. That think that's fine.
Starting point is 00:37:23 Both can be true. No, I a hundred percent agree. And the attitude issue that I heard was I think that's fine. Both can be true. No, I 100% agree. And the attitude issue that I heard was, I'm the best player. Like, I'm going to do what I want. And you cannot be the best player when you're playing with Kelsey and Mahomes. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:37:32 Oh, yeah. And imagine, I mean, imagine just catching passes from Daniel Jones and, you know, running next to Kenny Galladay. Like, I mean, of course you're going to be mad. I mean, that sucks. You walk into that locker room and the leader is on very uneven grounds.
Starting point is 00:37:47 There's no stable veterans in the locker room. And you go to Kansas City and it's very different. I don't care what you want to tell anyone. You think that that's not a real thing and you think it's narrative based. That is real life, folks. Just for a second, step out of it and think about how real life works with this 23 year old kid. Who's probably been one of the best since he was like six years old walks in. There's no stable adult in the room. And he probably thinks he's the best because as soon as he got a taste of
Starting point is 00:38:15 it last year, he dominated and he became a problem, probably both with his health and his, his, you know, off the field stuff. And now he can't do that. And now he has to get in line and prove it. And here he is. He's going to do it. These are just real things. They happen all the time. Randy Moss was left for dead with the Raiders after he got moved from Minnesota. He went to New England and all of a sudden the guy that was dead was not. It happened in New England for a number of years with a bunch of guys cory dylan in new england he was dead in uh in cincinnati goes to new england you can't do that anymore and that's kind of where kansas city is and i think we start to see a little bit more from
Starting point is 00:38:53 good areas tony now and he's gonna get a shot the path that's what that's what travis kelsey said in his presser today too he wasn't upset he wasn't offended but like when they asked him he was literally he answered confused like there was a question mark of the teleprompter he's like i don't know why the giants traded him he was like genuinely boggled he's like i see this kid play and i don't understand it yeah you should see some of the separation stuff and his ability to get open it's just it's elite level stuff he moves different he definitely moves different no doubt points bet every tony over for the rest of the season that's's just going to be my motto. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:39:26 All right, last one. Dallas on the road in Minnesota. Minnesota is getting a point and a half everywhere. 47 and a half is the total everywhere as well. Incredible theater last week with that Bills and Vikings game. And kudos to the Vikings for once again coming out on the right side of things. They, for two years now, have just insisted on playing in one score games, breaking in their favor this season. It did not last year.
Starting point is 00:39:49 But again, I do not mean to poo-poo anything with the Vikings. But if you think about all of the things that needed to happen for them to come out with a win last week, I think it's okay to be lucky and good. They are clearly both. This is a very important game for the NFC playoff picture, but I don't think that if you're a Vikings fan, like you don't really care about it. You're eight and one still. And that's fantastic. But like, gosh, I mean, if you watched any of those games, seen any of those highlights, there are a handful of things just late in the fourth
Starting point is 00:40:18 quarter alone that go any, any way the other way. And that game goes completely different. They go. So big one here. A lot of folks have their minds warped a little bit because why is this eight and one team an underdog at home against the six and three team that just lost on the road against the team that they beat all those things what are your thoughts about cowboys and vikings do it both ways because it's the perfect cocktail not only do the vikings win a game they should not have, but also the Cowboys were 195-0 in franchise history with a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter. The 3-6 Packers made them 195-1. That's how fluky that game was.
Starting point is 00:40:58 My only issue, and I say this with a big bet on the Cowboys minus 1.5. That's the side I've already taken earlier in the week. my one concern is that the Cowboys are still the only defense creating pressure on 40 percent of drop backs and that has been Cousins weakness he ranks 34th completion rate for six and a half yards per attempt under pressure but even though the Vikings are top six and drop backs per game the blueprint has been given to them to win this contest if they choose to do so because the last two offenses dallas have faced uh justin fields david montgomery and khalil herbert combined for 212 rushing yards fields only counting for 60 of that against them
Starting point is 00:41:35 and aaron jones and aj dylan this past game combined for 200 yards and five and a half yards per carry the packers ran for 144 yards on second down alone because the Cowboys cannot stop the run whatsoever and now it's been exploited because the run tucks Micah Parsons in to defensive end only he played single digit snaps as a linebacker last week thus the Packers were never in trouble in pressure rating through the air and so if the Vikings want to run the ball they can do so in this matchup I just I just wonder if they will change their blueprint for that. So I'm on the Cowboys, but there is a path here where I lose this bet, and I understand how.
Starting point is 00:42:12 Here's the big thing there. Anthony Barr. Anthony Barr was not active last week. And because they knew that the Packers were going to go to a very run-heavy game plan, I think that they adjusted. And instead of having Micah Parsons attack and pressure the quarterback, they used him in a more traditional sense. And again, kudos.
Starting point is 00:42:34 He could do all those things. But there's no way that you're – it's like just keeping – I got a Ferrari, but I'm just going to drive the Accord because just the weather is bad, and it ends up not raining or anything. It's like, no, you drive the Ferrari you do have a Ferrari. You just let it happen. Anthony Barr coming back changes the dynamic completely of this defense because he allows them to do that. He can stay in, allows them to cover the rush. And then also on the other side, Christian Derrissaw is in concussion protocol for the Vikings. Derrissaw is PFF's top graded offensive lineman this season.
Starting point is 00:43:06 And if Derrissaw is not there and Anthony Barr is, that's a very, very, very big problem if you feel confident in the Vikings here. I do think that they probably do want to do the run thing, but I think they don't have the success that we saw last week because of that. Connor, what do you think? Very quickly, I'll also say if that is the case
Starting point is 00:43:24 and Anthony Barr's active, I may even double up my bet here because Dan Quinn and Trayvon Diggs, like Dan Quinn schemed 21 receiving yards to Justin Jefferson in this matchup last year. Like I believe they know how to stop him. So if that's the case and we don't expect the Vikings
Starting point is 00:43:39 to move around here on offense, I'm all in on this Cowboys minus one and a half bet. Yeah, I want the derisaw and bar news for sure because i think it matters massively yeah i mean for me a lot of what you mentioned is important but beyond that so it's like kirk's completion rate uh against he is the one of the highest splits actually man versus zone we looked at it and like dialed it up this week it's like nearly 20 just a 48 completion rate against zone and then under pressure 42.9 completion rate he's basically turned into a cupcake uh against man and zone just really has not been able to complete
Starting point is 00:44:10 and a lot of that has to do with the vikings wide receivers just not really getting open like justin jefferson we mentioned it has not played as well against man he's still good it's just that his splits against man are also not not as great uh and so some of that's on kirk but some of that's on him uh and as you mentioned they're probably good, probably any of pressure, uh, and the Vikings defense on the other side, I mean, fairly average, but notably dead last and explosive pass right aloud. Dallas, I think has looked great, largely offensively. They could run the ball.
Starting point is 00:44:34 They could pass the ball. Dalton Schultz has come in on his own. They need to get, I think Michael Gallup going a little bit more on some deep balls, but I really think that this is like a spot here where, uh, I edited like three, I thought Dallas should have been like minus three, all things considered. So what was the look ahead? I don't know.
Starting point is 00:44:49 Actually. No, look, it's just right around here. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. So it's,
Starting point is 00:44:55 it's again, they weren't the market sharp. They're not necessarily thrown off by what, what happened. The public is because everyone's like, why aren't they, why isn't Minnesota at least favored by three? It's funny because the week after we were clearly on the square side of the
Starting point is 00:45:08 dallas green bay you know debacle which we still we should have won we should have won we should have won like yeah we should have won yeah i'm just saying like relative to whatever the market um you know now at this point i think this is the sharp side uh of everything but maybe it's not i don't know i just from what i've seen i I think, I think that that's what it is. So, you know, whatever, we better win this one. That's all I got to say. Big one for Dallas. Again, obviously they play on Thanksgiving.
Starting point is 00:45:32 Giants are coming to town. You know, the Giants, they have to obviously take care of business. But again, like I know we think of these teams very differently, but as far as just win loss records, they're starting to get really close and tight. And, you know, the, the Cowboys kind of need that here. Some other teams that are, again, the Packers won, the Commanders won. Like there's some other teams coming up on the back end where the Cowboys kind of need to start to make sure that they separate themselves.
Starting point is 00:45:55 So I think we see just a little bit more of that offense that I think we expect to see with the Cowboys too. I think CeeDee Lamb eats in the spot too. You know, maybe it's a limited Zeke, but I think Pollard can have some success here as well. I think it's just going to be a nice little spot. Again, the bar and the De'Arasaw news, I think, make a ton of difference here. So is there anything else on the slate this week, guys,
Starting point is 00:46:17 that we did not touch on that you guys want to highlight any other looks on the board here? Connor, I'll start with you. Yeah, let's see here. I think that I had one more that I liked. Oh, it was, well, Bill's Browns. I mean, I played the over speculatively this morning at 41 because DK does not void bets with a location change
Starting point is 00:46:39 as long as the Bills are still listed as the home team. So there was some good, I don't know, what I felt unilateral upside there. The current total is like 48 and a half. I don't know how you guys feel about that game, but I still think that could go over. I think the Browns have success on the ground. I think that the Bill, I mean,
Starting point is 00:46:53 the Browns defense is like horrible. I think that the Bills will be able to wreck them. I mean, Josh Allen, he made a couple of throws that were bad and he's consistently making mistakes. But I think that that's still okay because he's still electric enough that still getting enough big plays that I think there'll be fine. And in a dome,
Starting point is 00:47:08 I mean, Josh Allen on dome, you know, any other less than 50 point total is pretty incredible. Yeah. I mean, I took the bills team total there at 25 and a half. I thought it was,
Starting point is 00:47:17 I thought it was viable probably if it stayed in Buffalo. Again, not knowing what we're going to see there, but now that that's on the fast track in Detroit, feel really good about that. So, yeah. I know what your thoughts on Dagle. That's gone, but I don't know if you got in on it with us. I did not just because even in the snow, I should have, I wanted to do the overs in the snow, like the running overs, just because as you mentioned, Connor, both defenses are pretty bad since the bills return from their buy, they're allowing 6.2 yards per carry.
Starting point is 00:47:46 I expect Nick Chubb to have a lot of success in this game, especially that it's outdoors now. Yeah, I do like the Overs in that one. Then I'm not suggesting anyone bet this, but I also bet the Texans as three-point home dogs. They went one of six inside the red zone last week, but they still made the red zone six times. The commander's riding a high off of this win against the Eagles.
Starting point is 00:48:11 And more importantly, maybe it's something, maybe it's not, but we now have 11 games at home and 11 games on the road for Davis Mills. He's literally lapped his touchdowns, 8-19 at home compared to on the road, also averaging 1.4 more yards per attempt at home compared to on the road. Also averaging 1.4 more yards per attempt at home compared to on the road. So just a little something and the, on the boundary through their cornerbacks is how you tack the commander. So I think they can have some success moving the ball here. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:48:35 That Browns bills game still is at like seven and a half, eight and a half out there. And then that's a nice little teacher. Like you can tease the bills under a field goal and i absolutely love pairing that with the 49ers here 49ers on monday night in mexico against the cardinals uh they are eight to eight and a half so again you can get that you know two two and a half gets both those teams under a field goal look it might be kyler it might be trace mcsorley because cole mccoy is injured as well he hurt his knee kyler sounds like it's going to be a
Starting point is 00:49:12 game time decision it's a hamstring thing so even if he plays he's probably fairly limited and i don't know i just think this niners team i think the niners and the ravens are just teams that are probably ascending a little bit i would love to get down to the Ravens or I don't know the defensive upgrades, but guys coming back healthy, the Roquan Smith move offensive lines and things are getting better. But again, they're 13 point favorites. I don't really want to jump into that market, even though it's against Baker Mayfield this week, but yeah, teasing the bills and the Niners under three, I think is a really nice teaser leg on DraftKings this week. I love the Niners teaser three, I think, is a really nice teaser leg on DraftKings this week. I love the Niners teaser leg especially, too, because we look at Arizona right now, what they do.
Starting point is 00:49:51 They blitz at a top three rate. Jimmy G right now third in EPA per play against the Blitz. Seventh best in completion rate under pressure. I mean, just like – and they don't – they're not successful with it. They're not even getting pressure. It's just that they blitz. I think they're like 26th in blitz success rate or something like that. So, I mean, it's just – because the weapons are so good. It's just like a catastrophic combination where the only other person that's like in E like high in EPA per against the blitz is Patrick Mahomes.
Starting point is 00:50:13 And we saw what happened there. I mean, you just absolutely annihilated them. And I chalked up last week's game approach against the chargers as a game specific blueprint coming off of the buy, um, 18 carries for Elijah Mitchell, 14 for Christian McCaffrey. Deebo Samuel had four carries. That's his first game with more than two carries since week three. So I just assumed, yeah, they went and attacked a front seven, allowing the most rushing guards per game. Of course, that was their game plan.
Starting point is 00:50:35 I don't expect it to be that in this one. I think it's going to be a lot of Jimmy Garoppolo and Christian McCaffrey. So again, we don't know what the quarterback news is. I think it's probably Kyler. But again, it's either kind of somewhat hobbled Kyler. it's Colt McCoy who's dealing with a knee injury, or it's Trace McSorley. And I feel pretty good about that. I took under on the Cardinals team total as well. So I think that's a nice little teaser leg available now that that Buffalo game is kind of settled, but though the spread has not moved with that. So all right, gentlemen,
Starting point is 00:51:01 good stuff as always. Continue to have articles coming out on the site. Again, 444.com slash plans. Next level, we'll get you an additional 25% off of an already 50% discounted betting subscription where you can get access to everything that we write, all the plays that we make, all the great stuff, all the DFS stuff that Daigle is doing. Love that stuff as well.
Starting point is 00:51:20 So Connor will continue to have articles on the site. I will have a prop article coming soon. And very quickly, we're trying something new out. We're trying to, all of us, have more fun as we're doing the Discord together. We're trying to overlap DFS with our betting content. Since TJ Hernandez and I mention it from time to time, it's part of our process, but we never talk about it in depth. And so since I bet obviously with y'all and i use that those that information on dfs um i will now be sitting down with sharp clark every friday afternoon on youtube for everyone um talking about the three or four most important storylines for dfs and what betters are doing trying to get a glimpse at oh like do we think this bills browns game now is going to explode
Starting point is 00:52:04 like how are books taking the tickets on that? This Falcons team total, I think, is one of the most interesting things of this entire slate. The second highest team total, and honestly, if the Ravens and Panthers total keeps coming down, the Falcons are going to be projected by Vegas to score the most points of any team on Sunday. That's wild to me.
Starting point is 00:52:20 We have to talk about that. So, yeah, we're just going to take it to the streets, talk about betting and Divya's at the same time. A quick 10- minute video on it. So please stop by, like it, support it every Friday afternoon, moving forward. Love it.
Starting point is 00:52:30 Again, another thing that you'll get by subscribing here to the YouTube channel or on podcast form as well. I believe we're going to end up having that here in the Move the Line podcast feed as well. So yeah, good stuff as always. So for Diggle and Carmen, I'm Ryan. We'll see you tomorrow for the Prop Drop Show. Thanks everyone.

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