Move The Line - NFL Coaching Changes & Betting Impact

Episode Date: June 2, 2022

Move The Line hosts Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan, and John Daigle go over the most important topics in the world of sports betting! On this week's episode, the triumvirate trio goes through every NFL coaching change during the 2022 NFL offseason and what it means for betting markets.Timestamps: 0:00 Intro0:35 Welcomes & FanDuel Ad2:02 NFL Coaching Changes Overview2:30 Bears7:22 Broncos10:45 Jaguars15:52 Raiders21:07 Dolphins26:09 Vikings29:47 Saints33:13 Giants38:07 Buccaneers41:47 Texans45:28 Panthers50:27 Colts53:34 Rams55:34 Ravens56:31 Lions59:45 Bills1:02:20 OutroMove The Line is presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. New users who sign up for an account using promo code 4FOR4 will get a Risk-Free first bet (up to $1,000) 👉🏼 https://4for4.com/go/FanDuelHosts: Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan, John Daigle, Move the LineFollow Us On:TwitterFacebookYouTubeDiscord 4for4 NFL Draft Odds & Betting TrackerMove the Line Bets Tracker Get a FREE 4for4 Pro Sub & Bonus Deposit Match up to $100 with Promo Code 4FOR4 on Underdog Fantasy (Minimum $10 deposit)Want a FREE 4for4 Betting Subscription? Deposit $10 into a new BetMGM account using promo code 4FOR4 👉🏼 https://4for4.com/go/BetMGMGet a FREE 4for4 Pro Sub & Bonus Deposit Match up to $100 with Promo Code 4FOR4 on Underdog Fantasy (Minimum $10 deposit) 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wtvfuhEmail: [e-mail]

Hello and welcome to MoveLine presented by FanDuel, promo code 444. New users can take advantage of FanDuel's risk-free first bet. Get up to $8,000 back. If you don't win, download the FanDuel Sportsbook app today. Enter promo code 444 to take advantage. I'm Ryan Noonan, joined here as always by my friends. We have Connor Allen and John Daigle. How we doing, gentlemen? Great. I like the energy. Absolutely great. I started getting into some MLB player props.

I've been grinding those lately and it's been an absolute blast. I really don't like baseball at all outside of going to games, but I mean, this market is soft. Just crushing it so far. I'm like six and two in like three days. How we do today? We tailed one today, didn't we? Do we have?

Yeah, Carrasco. We already won that, and then the other Detmers got rained out, and then there's one more we got in a little bit. We're also at the time of the year where all of our ideas, we're just throwing them against the wall, hoping they stick until we get to our team preview. So another episode where we just get to lightly talk about football. Yeah.

I think that initial reaction at the top is a June 1st football show reaction. I'm like, how are you doing today? Man, everyone's all right. There's a big golf tournament tomorrow. There's football players playing golf on TV as we talk. We have playoff hockey tonight. We have the NBA finals tomorrow. We're in other spots mentally,

but we never take our finger off the pulse of the NFL and all the things that go along with that. So we want to continue to stay in your mind and find reasons why we can find little edges in this game that we love that we can possibly bet on. So today we're going to look at some of the coaching changes that have happened over the past few months. Head coaching changes, offensive coordinator changes. How can that impact offensive play calling? Maybe that is something that can play itself out in the prop markets, defensive side of the football,

whether it's going to impact teams from a win total standpoint. We just want to talk ball with you today. So I'm going to do it with my friends, two favorite people to do it with. So let's get started. We'll start no frills here at the top. We'll jump right into it. Connor railed on about the Bears last week, and I think that that's a good place to start here.

We have the Bears with obviously a new head coach, Matt. Avery Flu is coming over from Indy. He's the defensive coordinator there for a number of years. Bill Lazor out, obviously, as offensive coordinator. Luke Getze comes in from Green Bay, quarterback coach for a number of years, and we often see this. I do think it's interesting here with the Bears where we have this zigzag where it's like, all right, we kind of didn't have success with the offensive guy.

So we bring in a defensive guy. And that's an interesting thing here in particular, Connor, because we were talking about the development and possible growth of the Bears hinging on Justin Fields' development. And that feels like it's going to fall a lot on luke getzey who's going to be calling plays for the first time i know we're down on the bears overall but talk to me about what you think here about the coaching change yeah i mean it gets he's tough to project i think it's in some aspects it's good that they took a chance on someone new but in other aspects he's just i mean he is brand new in terms of he's never

called plays and he's dealing with the bottom three O-line group, bottom three wide receiver group. But the biggest thing for me, it's something that I dug into for this episode in specific, Matt Eberflus, right? So I think everyone's been like, oh, he's a good defensive mind. But then I kind of looked at the stats behind it. So he was a defensive coordinator in Indy for four years. They didn't finish inside the top 15 in net yards per attempt allowed

or yards per allowed once in four years. They're not finishing the top half of the league. Uh, I mean, they were always fringe top 10 in like points allowed and most of their success actually came from takeaway. So they were like fifth and second the past two years in takeaways, which I think we've talked about before is not super sticky for most, for the most part. So I don't know. I mean, I, this actually makes me even more concerned given like the lack of talent there. Like, I don't know how much more down I can get on the bears, but like, I wanted to be like, okay, maybe Adler flus can inject some, you know, strengthen their defense, make the most out of the talent. But man, it is,

it is really, really tough for me to have much confidence. What do you got? For our, of sports illustrated, I believe he's still with, uh, the great Doug for our actually noted on Twitter a few days ago that justin fields had the highest passer rating on rollouts last season but matt nagy of course only called 19 of them all year when fields is under center and so you would have to think we have a little more faith in their offense but even then i was diving into my best ball quarterback tears now at the site running back tears going up the moment this show ends and they'll roll out for the rest of the week but even then for fantasy at least you think about how poor that bears offense was last year and even then in four fields his last five starts he

finished as a top 12 quarterback qb1 because he averaged 7.7 carries per game and a lot of those weren't design runs that was just him scrambling for his life. So we still have that in arguably a worse situation. But think about the transition. Is it that much worse since it was already pretty poor last year? And so I have, after doing a little more research, gotten a little more faith in fields individually and in particular Darnell Mooney. But overall, the organization, still the jury's out, and I don't have faith in their overall personnel. Yeah, no, I think that's actually really fair,

and I think that from a fantasy perspective, it's way different. I kind of like Fields. I think he's kind of like dicey. The upside is there to some extent. But also one last note here on the defense. Alan Williams is their defensive coordinator, former Indy DB coach, but also has two years of defensive coordinator experience

with the Vikings in 2012 and 2013. They finished bottom 10 in past events in both years, and he allowed the most points in the league in 2013 as his final year as defensive coordinator. It's almost like players matter too. So for sure, you know, and he didn't have a great secondary per se, but yeah, I mean, it's an interesting thing. It doesn't help, I guess, to your point, Connor, off the top is it's like, it doesn't add this layer of all of a sudden optimism on top of where you were already concerned about so

i'm kind of with you too i like the day goes a little bit optimistic on the upside especially in fantasy and maybe that plays itself out in the prop market on justin fields who is probably going to be playing from behind the lots we kind of like those quarterbacks especially in the fantasy game or in the prop market of like whether it's quarterback rushing yards or him having to really create and i think of that run against san francisco where it was like to dagle's point that's not a design run but that was a it kept them in the game where that like play broke down scrambled he scrambled out to his right had to kind of go back to almost steve young ish back to his left and found himself in the end zone maybe like a 40 yard touchdown run and that was kind of the glimpse of what we think his upside can be. It's going to have to be a lot of that because there's

not a lot of talent around him to kind of buoy the rest of the, the, uh, talent deficiency there, especially up front. So just going to have to be just like in college, miserable under pressure, great downfield passer. You have to keep them open. You have to keep them up, right? The offensive line will have a lot to say about that last point, but if he stays upright, then yes, he can still throw it deep with the best of them as he proved last year. Denver, we are optimistic about Nathaniel Hackett coming in. We thought maybe there were some rumors of the Aaron Rodgers drama that might land him here, and they thought that the ties there, obviously him coming over as the green Bay offensive coordinator, he was in Jacksonville as the OC there prior to that.

So I thought that would make a lot of sense, but again, same thing, where we have a defensive mind and Vic Fangio going out offensive minds and Hackett coming in. We have a, you know, Justin Newton as well coming in from green Bay to be the offensive coordinator, though, Hackett's going to be the play caller here. I talked last week about how I think kind of the meshing of a new quarterback coming to this team with Russell Wilson with Hackett at the same time helps them kind of develop things together versus one coming in prior and then trying to retrofit to make things work. I think they can kind of do

things together. It's going to be interesting what we see with this offense because I think that we've always wanted to see Russ cook. We've seen different iterations of that over time. We've obviously been clamoring that for a reason. JD, give me your thoughts here on the Broncos coaching staff and how it's going to impact this team. I've honestly already said in multiple shows what I think about Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense. I practically throw everything else under Vic Fangio out the window,

knowing that Russell Wilson was trapped under Pete Carroll and a number of different OCs for many years, running a slow paced run, heavy offense. And now with Hackett, I generally don't even think Hackett's going to have a say. I think we're going to run pretty much a Russell Wilson offense finally for the first time ever, and it can only be successful so I mean I think it's very clearly don't overthink the situation and the Broncos like if they were in any other division they'd be the favorites but we at least know they will compete even though they are in the best division in football and the Hackett thing Connor I think is interesting too because like the Green Bay thing is great theoretically but we know that that like JD's talking about that was Lafleur and Rodgers so like Hackett's not even necessarily like a mastermind of that offense but like it

might not matter because Wilson is kind of that guy that can kind of rise above that what are your thoughts here I know you're bullish and rightfully so on the Broncos yeah I'm just begging on it not mattering to be honest I think as Dago said it's probably gonna be Russell Wilson's offense I think Hackett has enough experience working with Rodgers working with Lafleur to probably inject some of that in there as well and kind of work together and build a successful offense. The biggest leap for me here is, I'm trying to pronounce this right, Ejiro Averro, the new defensive coordinator, former Los Angeles Rams defensive backs coach. I mean, he's been a positions coach with the Rams and 49ers for the past decade,

no play calling experience. And while he has some talent, I mean, the Broncos have some holes on their, their defense. Don't get me wrong. And so they have obviously added some talent up front with Randy Gregory, but at the same time, there is a little bit of holes. So I'm a little bit worried about the defense, honestly, if they're not able to kind of like leverage some of their experience, but I think it'll be all right. But I guess that's something to look for kind of early on in the season, if they're not able to get their bearings. I said it last week, but I'll say it once more that through 2020, Russell Wilson was the only quarterback in all of football that threw for at least 30 touchdowns and four consecutive seasons. No one else did it. And he would have

done it last year for a fifth consecutive season if he didn't play through with that smashed finger from week 10 on. And he did that again in one of the worst offenses in the entire league because that's how great he is. So I think it just wheels up from here. Makes sense. They're going to be fun to watch. That division is going to be awesome. I cannot wait.

Jacksonville, new coach, Doug Peterson. Shout out to Dougie P. Jr. Obviously, Peterson, we've had some times where we thought that he was a football mastermind. Obviously, that Super Bowl and being able to install Nick Foles as the quarterback and have them go to the next level. I thought everyone was very excited about him, and he seemed like a guy that was going to be around for a while.

Again, got left behind. And again, process of elimination here with Urban Meyer and all that was going on there, him out the door, just addition by subtraction here makes a ton of sense i think you're still going to see doug peterson call plays even though we have press taylor former colts assistant uh labeled as the offensive coordinator he's going to be still calling the plays there for dougie p obviously similar to justin fields this matters it's all about trevor law Lawrence's gains can he continue to evolve and

develop we saw flashes at times otherwise it was just kind of like a meh season but again all the things going on there Daigle it was going to be a tough season for anyone as a rookie quarterback in that building and more encouraging is that the offense and OTAs becoming clear there are a couple tea leaves we should be following right now. Not a lot of important things, but whenever we are getting who is starting and 11 personnel in particular, so we know three wide sets and OTAs,

that does matter, especially when everyone is in attendance. And right now for the Jaguars, they're pretty much using, for better or worse, Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones, and Zay Jones as their three wide sets with travis etn basically handing every single touch since james robinson is currently out at

otas and still uh pending for week one i've seen a lot of chatter about evan ingram as a strong late round app option and that's fine there we do this every year there are a lot of strong late round options the only thing i would be careful of for fantasy purposes is that there's a reason why you don't see many pieces on coaching and like that type of scoring and the exact like weird players targeted who carry over anymore and it's because we be we debunked it all like it proved year after year that like Doug Peterson did not target tight ends in his offense because that's what he loves to do he did it because he had prime freaking Zach Ertz and Dallas Goddard of course he targeted them because they were his best players and so like just be very wary when you're siding like Doug Peterson

loves tight ends um again I do think Evan Ingram is a pretty awesome buy low option, but let's be wary and just not pretend like it was because Doug Peterson loves to throw the ball to tight ends. That's not the case. No, that's a good call for sure. Connor, I think the ceiling here is maybe second place in this division because I do think maybe that's up for grabs. We do kind of, I think we all agree that this is a one playoff team division. It gets very dangerous to say that on June 1st, but I think we all feel fairly confident that the Titans should be taking a step back. We don't feel very strongly about the Texans who we'll get to momentarily. Again, Jacksonville probably is a stretch to get to the number two spot in this division. But again, like, do they even want that?

They probably should be looking to gain as much leverage to get an early pick again next year. But again, I feel like that's the ceiling for them. But what does that get you other than like six and 11? Yeah, I think to Diggle's point too here with Doug Peterson coming in, calling plays, he's actually finished no worse than 13th in past attempts in his five years as a head coach. Also has two top 10 finishes in rushing attempts. So I mean, their play volume is going to be up. Their efficiency is going to be up. He has more talent around him. I think that there's a lot of reasons to be bullish on this Jacksonville offense. And I guess from the defensive perspective,

there's obviously a lot of holes. But at the same time, they hired Mike Caldwell, Tampa Bay linebacker coach. He's been in the league since 2008. He's mostly a positional coach. This is his first crack as a coordinator and will likely be his first time calling plays. So again, that's something else to watch for as well because if they're not cutting it right now, I mean, the unit definitely doesn't have talent

to overcome a coach that doesn't have a ton of experience. So at the same time, comes from Tampa Bay. So I think that there's plenty of potential there as well. Trevor Lawrence also wasn't elite during any stretch in his rookie year. He had developed in year one under Urban Meyer, so who would be? But 6.7 yards per attempt in those first six starts, and then they returned from bye. He literally forgot how to play football,

and everything was downhill from that point forward. I imagine it's because they were dealing with so many injuries, only 5.6 yards per attempt, 10 fantasy points per game across his last starts from week point forward. I imagine it's because they were dealing with so many injuries, only 5.6 yards per attempt, 10 fantasy points per game across his last starts from week eight on. So I would imagine we at least get to see a new Trevor Lawrence, one that's more similar to the one we saw in the first month of the year as opposed to whatever the hell happened over the last stretch. He was also a legitimately awesome prospect.

So we don't really need – I think that there's something to rely on there, whether like compared to other guys, you know, like Zach Wilson, or, you know, even in the past, like Sam Donald, where we had a lot of like major question marks in terms of them as prospects. Now I think we can kind of lean on him being fantastic for a couple of seasons at Clemson as well to be bullish on him. The Raiders finally were the team that was able to convince Josh McDaniels to stop flirting every year and to commit to take a head coaching job. It's been 13 years, which is

shocking because McDaniels still looks like a young pup since he last was a head coach with the Broncos, you know, toiled around a little bit with the Rams and obviously back in New England for a very long time. And I think it's interesting. We're going to see that play out with New England. I think just how good Josh McDaniels is as a coach, because really how he was able to just kind of change and develop based off of the personnel of the Patriots had. It's really hard to say this is the McDaniels system that he is taking to the Raiders. They were really able to just go, OK, here's what we have this year,

and we're going to be able to just kind of manifest an offense around what we have. So I think that that speaks to McDaniels being able to be pliable, and I think that's going to work. This team has some talent. They're probably going to be in some shootouts because there are a lot of electric offenses in this division that probably works out well from a fantasy point, J.D., for the Raiders.

Mick Lombardi, offensive coordinator by name. Again, another New England coach who came over with Josh McDaniels. But what do you think about the Raiders? And in the first two months, it happens every year, but the Raiders were encouraging, in particular, Derek Carr. Because for the first time ever, like remember, he's always been a quarterback who doesn't turn the ball over, doesn't take sacks.

That only gets you so far. That's why he's always been overrated when everyone says, like, oh, they can win with Derek Carr. No, you can't because he doesn't take chances at all. But last year, he did take chances. Until their bye in week seven, Derek Carr threw 20-plus yards downfield at the league's fourth highest rate. He was giving his players more opportunity and man coverage on coin toss throws.

And those players were Henry Ruggs and Brian Edwards. He had no reason to believe in those guys. And yet he did. And then when they lost Henry Ruggs and basically any player on the team that could separate, that's when Zay Jones got thrown in and then Derek Carr's downfield rate dipped all the way to single digits. He just didn't take those chances anymore and instead depended on shallow crossers with Hunter Renfro and Darren Waller. And so we have seen last year that he is a different quarterback, and that's the quarterback they need him to be, again, in the best division of football because it really comes down to how good can he be under pressure.

And so, yeah, there is a lot of hope to have here. And then other than that, the backfield is just, especially after they declined Josh Jacobs' fifth-year option, very clearly this is just going to be Josh McDaniel's bunch of friends between Brandon Bolden getting involved, Kenyon Drake as a pass-down specialist, and then Samir White wherever he fits in, even though I do have questions about his role in the NFL.

Yeah, that's always going to be a mess. I feel like you're going to have that still. That's going to be New England West as far as running back backfields go. Also, Connor, the Raiders were able to kind of finagle Patrick Graham out from the Giants to take over the defense there. They were pretty excited about that. What are your thoughts here on the Raiders? Yeah, that's pretty good.

He finished, I mean, with a league-bottom Dolphins team as their defensive coordinator, but then went to New York and now top 10 back-to-back in points, yards allowed, and net yards allowed. So, I mean, he did really well with the Giants. And he wasn't working with a ton of talent either i know we were both down on the giants uh at least last year and i was specifically and and they they finished under and then yeah i cashed it yeah yeah yeah i mean it was and it was good but a lot of that hinged on the fact that i

thought patrick graham was kind of a dud at least two years ago and he's turned out to be really well and work work out with uh very little talent but m McDaniels here. I mean, we saw them with the Patriots, as you mentioned, like oscillating between a run first to a pass first offense on a week to week basis, even mid game basis with Tom Brady. And then what went to, you know, with Cam Newton, obviously like a power run, like weird, like, you know, read zone thing that didn't really work, but kind of did for a couple of games before you got COVID. And then, you know, they had Mac Jones and were able to somehow work something out with basically no receiving options.

So I think that we'd have no idea what we're going to see from them. I think that we probably should see a reasonable amount of passing attempts here, probably skew pass heavy, considering the weapons that they have. But at the same time, I think that if McDaniels and Carr are able to click and kind of figure out a rhythm like they had in New England in terms of figuring out game plans on a week-to-week basis,

I'm a little bit intrigued, honestly. I'm just excited to see that. I'm not sure they're going to be good, but I'm excited to see what the offense looks like on a week-to-week basis. Defensive-wise, we don't know. You're right. But I do respect the hell out of Patrick Graham, who still did a tremendous job around a crumbling franchise

with Joe Judge and Dave Gettleman. And then also just to add in Chandler Jones, who was overshadowed because Yannick Ngakwe signed basically a few days after him. And then also to add Trayvon Mullen, who has at least shown promise whenever he's been healthy. He hasn't been often. Also, Rocky Sin from the Colts.

And so they did rejigger their entire secondary and defense. So there is some promise there that they can at least get by as a league average defense, if it's possible. Man, that division is going to be, is going to be fun. If the,

if car is somewhat, like you said, JD, what we saw early in the season and takes advantage of being aggressive. And again, I do agree with you that he was kind of forced into the dinky nut stuff with, with Hunter Renfro,

but yeah, could be a, could be a fun one. Literally never put the NFC on prime time. They will, but NFC deserves zero games in prime time this year. They just kind of sat back and said, if Brady comes back,

they're going to win the, they're going to win the conference. That's it. The Miami dolphins. This one's going to be interesting. Mike McDaniel coming over from San Francisco, Frank Smith, the OC by name,

but McDaniel is looking like the play caller and McDaniel wasn't in that role. Even in San Francisco, Frank Smith, the OC by name, but McDaniel is looking like the play caller. And McDaniel wasn't in that role even in San Francisco. We all attribute the Niners' success to Kyle Shanahan and the genius of Kyle Shanahan. And I think that there's something to that. It hasn't necessarily played itself out in big games at times. But McDaniel has come over. He's going to be in charge of this offense.

He was, I think, given a lot of credit for some of the success that that run game has had over the years that's another team that is comfortable using a ton of bodies and they've added a ton of speed to this offense jaylen wattle obviously last year and then everything that they've added from the two running backs uh to obviously tyreek hill this is going to be a very interesting team especially early in the season to see how they find their footing but But Connor, get me started here with your Dolphins. What do you think about McDaniel? Yeah, so I had a slight epiphany while kind of writing this, researching it. So prior to him becoming the 49ers offensive coordinator, he was their run game coordinator. Frank Smith was the Los Angeles Chargers run game coordinator. And the 49ers last year

ran at the second highest rate of Shanahan's five-year tenure as head coach. I mean, I know everyone is expecting kind of like a bombs away passing attack, them to go pass heavy. They signed Reggie Mostert. They have Chase Edmonds. They signed him. They bolstered their offensive line. Like, what's stopping them from running like exactly what the 49ers ran, running a lot of kind of like, you know, zone runs, running a ton, and then doing a lot of play action into crossers for waddle and tyree to get open i mean i would not be surprised at all if they kind of go like a little bit more run heavy than people are expecting and then just like leveraging uh

waddle and tyreek in those like situations the yak situations and then finally getting them open over the top i mean i think that that is actually probably a perfect use of what they're going to do rather than just you know trying to gun it and like hope for the best so i don't know i kind of thought that that's like, it kind of opened my eyes. Like maybe they don't really like kind of do what everyone's expecting. And so that that's kind of where I'm at with them. I think that it's going to be a very interesting how they mesh, but I kind of like, like the dolphins even more now. So I might be willing to start putting some coin on them. I just got to find the right way to leverage it. I'm just not sure how to do it yet.

Maybe I was in the wrong. Were you expecting them to come out and chuck it all over the place? I mean, you pay, you have Waddle. I mean, you trade for Tyreek. I don't know. I think that that's like, you bolstered the offensive line. You have a quarterback coming into his, you know, whatever, third year, I guess, at this point. Like, I think that, you know, that kind of should be the expectation, at least should have been.

But I don't know. Maybe I was, maybe I'm off there in terms of public sentiment. Yeah, I expected them to be terms of public sentiment. Yeah. I expected them to be a shallow crossing team. That's, that's all I think they're going to do. Just like the 49ers, like Garoppolo.

We know how much, how, how much he lacks mobility and even then finished second in yards per attempt last season with 8.2, because all they do is try to get yak. And now they have between bottle Hill and, Hill, and Mostert, three guys who have all recorded a play over 20 miles per hour in the last two seasons.

Like they added all the speed they possibly could and run a wide zone offense, just like the 49ers, presumably. So yeah, I think they're going to be fun. I don't know if that translates to being good, but I think they're going to be fun for sure. Yeah, you look at what they've done at the offensive line, especially that helps. Over the last handful of years, regardless of what we think of Jimmy G,

I always talk about expected completion percentage. That's like coaching stats. And Jimmy G, regardless of what you think of him, always is in like the top three in the league the last few years in expected completion percentage because they just scheme these short crossers. And I think they're going to set Tua up for success where he's going to be able to take advantage of that yak and those speed guys with those crossers. So, yeah, I guess it was kind of what I was expecting them to do too and

and again we've seen the deep ball stuff um I think that that's a little overblown I mean I think that Tua can hang with that um I'm definitely not anti-Tua last year my anti-dolphin stuff was more on the defensive side because I thought the previous year they were just, it was unsustainably just noisy with all of the turnover stuff that they had the previous season. They had like a ton of pick sixes and all that stuff. The defense is still, I think, has some questions, but I think the offense will be fun. And again, this division is not so much for grabs,

but again, like maybe there's a chance that there's a two playoff team here. And maybe it's the Dolphins. I just, I don't don't see it but again i think they might be fun for fantasy i mean he he didn't go deep often he only threw downfield 29 times all year but he did actually finish with the third highest completion rate on throws 20 plus yards downfield and you think about why he didn't go deep and it could have been the offense but it also could have been because he looked up and saw davante parker albert wist wilson preston williams and mike jazzy it's just like yeah these guys don't matter so of course he didn't throw deep so yeah i think speed and shallow crosses is the way to go here do you guys see the uh the dolphin social media accounts after that have posted like a deep

ball like a perfect thrown deep ball like every day like at least like one like one to two a week like after that just to try and get like the buzz back is i mean man they got blasted rightfully so i mean what a terrible highlight to throw he like underthrew him by like good five ten yards yeah it's awful it's bad uh minnesota they got another yin and yang in that uh nfc north we talked about earlier you get rid of the defensive minded coach with mike zimmer you bring in a sean mcveigh guy and kevin o'connell who was the rams oc last year um offensive coordinator by name will be west phillips who was also part of that rams passing game um in tight ends coach i mean obviously some you know fantasy assets that we're pretty excited about as always with justin

jefferson and dalvin cook see if we can get a little bit more from adam theelin this year if he can stay healthy but uh what are the thoughts here jd on cousins vikings and kevin o'connell well we know what the vikings have been under zimmer they finished in back-to-back seasons fourth and total runs from neutral game script any uptick it would certainly help out justin jefferson adam theelin uh we'll see which direction they go with their third wide receiver probably still kg osborne um and a large helping of eric smith assuming he's back to full health but kurt cousins is not the issue it's just that he's been poor under pressure but if we can get any kind of progressive intuitive offense like that is a massive plus for this passing game even though

they've already been pretty good the past two years anyhow like the number of times I reluctantly used Kirk Cousins double stacks and DFS because it was such a good option is atrocious like it's egregious how much how many times as a non-russian quarterback I knew he was the best play of the week and so yeah I actually have a lot of faith in this passing game because I think it's going to be different altogether. I do too. I think the important thing here to note is that a couple of things. We saw a lot of really good usage of Jefferson in the slot in college, and we barely see that at all for him in Minnesota. There's a big discrepancy in 11 personnel usage from what we saw from the Vikings since Jefferson's been there versus what we've seen for the Rams and really what they were able to do with Cooper Cup out of the slot last year.

So I think there is going to be more 11, basically one running back, one tight end that we see this year from the Vikings. And then being more creative with Jefferson to find him mismatches in the slot. I think that's going to be an interesting way to kind of take the cap off of his ceiling like we saw with Cooper Cup this year so continuing to be super bullish on that kid and that talent uh how about the Vikings for you Connor yeah to put a number to what you guys are saying in terms of like the pass rate especially so last year the Rams under Kevin O'Connell passed four percent more than expected uh so if you kind of look at their expected pass rate and they pass 4% more than that, the Vikings pass 3% less than their expected pass rate. So you're looking at a pretty big gap

here in terms of how progressive a team is, how a team is going to approach the season. So I think that the Vikings are gonna be passing a good amount here. And I think it means good things for Jefferson. Good means good things for Thielen and Irv Smith, as you mentioned, I'm interested to see what it does to Dalvin cook. I don't know his. His ADP and fantasy has gotten suppressed a little bit after last year, but I don't know. I think it could be an interesting by-law opportunity on this offense as a whole. I keep clicking on him, Daigle.

Should I be like Dalvin at the end of the first, like mid to late first, like 8, 9-ish? Well, and you know, I follow a couple of Twitter individuals for these things because it's wide open right now, but it sounds like his court dates are getting all the way pushed back to August. And if that's the case, it could just go all the way into 2023 as opposed to 2022. So I'm in the same boat as you where I keep going back and forth on it.

Right now, we genuinely don't have a clear answer. But if you told me to lean one direction, I think it is more likely that he takes a 2023 suspension as opposed to 2022. Interesting. Yeah, I'll continue to try to do that because it seems to make sense for me. The Saints, Dennis Allen staying. They are trying to keep as much cohesion there as possible. He'll move over from the defensive coordinator position

to the head coaching position, and I think we'll see real quick how good and how underrated Sean Payton is at his job too. Because I think that's going to be a big, big change for this team. Dago, what are your thoughts here on the Saints? Paulson and I on the Most Accurate Podcast have been harping on James Winston. And we are above industry consensus on him as well in our projections. And that's because last year, if you look,

in the first month of the season, they literally just didn't allow him to be James Winston. They said, whatever we can do to make sure you don't turn the ball over, that's what we're going to do. And that's why he only averaged 21 and a half pass attempts per game. It was basically bottom of the league and throws 20 plus yard downfield. But then his last two starts when they had no choice, but they up the ante and put points on the board

because they knew that offense couldn't sustain 32.5 pass attempts and 14 total carries. That's the Jameis Winston we want for fantasy and the one that would unlock this offense with Michael Thomas finally getting a running mate in Chris Olave. And so overall, now that it is Dennis Allen, no longer Sean Payton, as well as Taysom Hill permanently playing tight end. That's where he's also practicing during OTAs, and they signed Andy Dalton

so that Taysom Hill's not even the backup quarterback. There is no concern for Jameis Winston, assuming he's back to full health. And he is limping around OTAs currently, but we're still a couple months removed from training camp, so I still have full faith in him, and I think this offense could be more fun than people expect. Yeah, Connor Michael staying on in the offensive coordinator by name is just going to be interesting to see how much of that offense carries over. How much is this going to be Sean

Peyton's playbook and do they unleash Jameis, uh, like Daigle's talking about what are your thoughts here on the saints? Yeah, I don't think it impacts the offense at all, but looking back at Dennis Allen's history, I mean, his previous head coaching stint with the Raiders was an absolute disaster. And I don't really think it matters too much, but I think it is worth noting. He went eight and twenty eight during three seasons, two and a half seasons. He won four games, each of his first two seasons, then went on four and was fired. And obviously the talent differential is massive between what he has now. But I mean, that is like abhorrently bad.

Like that is just incredible. And so don't look at that Belichick's Browns record. Cause again, you know, and I mean, Hey, if you want to take that Dennis Allen to bell Belichick leap, you can be my guest, but I think it is worth noting that his previous sin was not great, but I think, like you said, most of the things are still in place here. P Carmel offensive coordinator, the positional coaches,

Chris Richard and Ryan Nielsen from the DB and the defensive line coaches are going to step in as like co-defensive coordinators but i anticipate dennis allen's basically just going to be the defensive coordinator there as well and you talk about smashing picks in the last round noon and like if kamar is out because now it looks likely actually especially because there is rumors of a video circulating and as we know the nfl for whatever reason needs video for proof otherwise they don't care they throw your allegations out the window but there is a video reportedly circulating if that's the case you remember mark ingram averaged 15 carries and seven and a half targets and his only two starts for kamara last year

maybe they add someone but i still doubt it's going to make an impact where they do not use marking them as an every bound down back as they showed last year so that's a guy i've been scooping a lot of yeah i'm sure they add someone but they'd like to your point like i don't know that it makes enough of a difference to not make him a great pick at his current adp if you're in those best ball streets so recommend that one quite a bit giants kind of landed one of the bigger fish uh as far as the you know guys expected to get a coaching job here with brian dayball who has been the OC in Buffalo, obviously has been, you know, kind of dubbed the guy who's turned Josh Allen into what we see today. Obviously spent a lot of time both with Patriots and with Alabama

and Nick Saban over the last decade or so. Mike Kafka, former Northwestern superstar quarterback, had been with the Kansas City Chiefs the last couple years as a QB coach there. Again, not a bad QB room to be in, obviously. So it'd be interesting to see what we see here for Daniel Jones and the Giants. So Giants have added some more depth to the wide receiver position. Hopefully they can keep Saquon healthy. We know the offensive line additions have been pretty nice.

Is this a year? And they have to make a decision because it looks like they're not moving forward with the fifth-year option on Daniel Jones. Do they have to make a decision because it looks like they're not moving forward with the fifth year option on Daniel Jones. Do they let him run a little bit? Do we start to see a little bit more of that upside that we've seen for Daniel Jones? What does that look like for the Giants table? And that's what I'm hoping for. That's why I have faith in Daniel Jones,

given that they immensely proved the offensive line this off season, not to mention they scored a league low 23 touchdowns last year because Joe judge the Patriots OC now, by way noonan uh was running that was running the show and so like of course we have more faith that with that kind of talent hopefully healthy barkley included and golladay that they can be at least league average and table is no fool like this is the same team remember that went out and traded for stefan diggs because because Josh Allen was one of the league's worst thrower downfield. His accuracy downfield was poor as hell until they got Diggs, who, as Matt Harmon showed us, was one of the best receivers

and catch rate downfield. And so I think that's the same thing that's going to happen. Dable's going to ask, what does Daniel Jones do best? And that's going to be roll out and use his legs more. And as we know, last year in their last six games whenever Buffalo was leaning on Devin Singletary for six for 17 carries and Josh Allen for seven carries per game it wasn't because like that's what they suddenly started doing it's because Dayball said we are now facing two high safeties like the Chiefs do how do we beat this and Devin Singletary was just an analogy for we need a better running back here

but this is the best we got so we just have to make them respect our running game at best and that's what the Giants are going to do that's why last year in that six game stretch uh 68% of Josh Allen's runs in that time were actually coordinated they were actually schemed by Dable they weren't just Josh Allen running all over the place using his legs on his own and his own. And again, with Tyra Taylor only having a one-year contract, not a threat at all, especially because he's been very bad the last few times he's been asked to start as well, whether it was with the one game with the Chargers against the Bengals two years ago,

or last year with the Texans when he returned from injury. Yeah, I am very high on Daniel Jones and his rushing floor. Yeah, it's been a very popular QB to pick for me because I think that there's some upside and if they can get some health of the receiver position, I think the offensive line improvements are key. We talked about some questions in the division. Connor, what are your thoughts here on the Kafka Dayball team here in the Giants? Dayball is one of the only coaches, at least one of the only coaches that I really respect enough that like they, he's undergone like a massive transformation

throughout his coaching career. So he started like for the first five to six years when he was with Cleveland, Miami, Kansas City, even Buffalo, when he was an offensive coordinator, he ranked top six in rushing attempts in five of six years. And then we look at the last two seasons in Buffalo, he ranked 11th and 15th in passing attempts and passed 7% more than expected last year.

And then we get my calf who comes from Kansas city. They pass 11% more than expected. I think that that kind of blend just speaks to what we're going to see. And you guys mentioned here a lot. I think Daniel Jones is going to run a ton. They didn't pick up his fifth year option. They have absolutely no reason to protect him. They know that they're not going to win.

They're going to let him loose, run as much as possible and try and be frisky. I mean, if he proves that he's something good, they're in a good situation where they can, you know, maybe keep him along. I don't know, figure something out, but now it's, I just think that they're going to let him loose, see what they have and basically everyone. And it'll be like a trial for one year. And then with the defense here, Don Martindale, Baltimore defense coordinator had three years in 2018 and 2020, where he was, I mean, led like a truly elite Ravens defense, you know, pretty much top five in most categories for three straight seasons uh last year there were a ton of injuries so i'm not sold that he's some like defensive guru but i

think that he at the very least elevates the talent that he has be interesting team to watch for sure again i think having you know that much experience even the kafka thing i mean he's not been around for a very long time but being with you know patrick mahomes andy reed in that offense i think the blending of that relationship and seeing what they can do to you said make a frisky daniel jones and if nothing else that could be fun for fantasy that could be fun from a prop standpoint we can point back daniel jones rushing yards early in the season hopefully uh until they stop posting it because they're cowards and then we you know are going to go when we get even on Daniel Jones for the season. Tampa Bay Bucs have moved on, obviously, through retirement with Todd Bowles taking over,

staying on, obviously, defensive coordinator, moving into the head coaching position. Another guy that has had a questionable early stint as a head coach with the Jets. Obviously, continuity there with Byron left, which staying on obviously Tom Brady coming back, make things pretty easy, you know, upgrading some of the, you know,

defensive staff to take over his role from the defensive side. Obviously he'll still be calling plays in and charge of that defense. Dale, what are your thoughts on bowls and the bucks? Do you think anything changes? I don't. Yeah. I think it's Brady's offense through and through.

And we've talked about it before brady through week 15 i believe it was 310 yards three touchdowns per game that's what he freaking averaged and then he lost chris godwin linden for n Antonio Brown and averaged six and a half yards per attempt unsurprisingly in the postseason also fresh off a career high 42 pass attempts per game last year and so no i, I think the MVP run at least is imminent. And whether it's last year or not, the offense doesn't miss a beat. It's just going to be the same thing with Russell Gage playing the Chris Godwin role instead in week one.

Connor, same thing? Yeah, I think it's almost like we're going to find out how much Bruce Arians matters. And I would say that his opinion over the offense was actually probably a negative towards the end of their tenure. And that was one of the reasons that Brady, like one of the stipulations, wasn't it? That, you know, he would come back if basically Arians was gone essentially. And so with that stipulation, I mean, that kind of speaks to their relationship in terms of Bruce Arians,

an offensive minded guy who, you know, had plenty of experience trying to force the ball downfield versus, you know, a guy like Tom Brady who likes to kind of attack underneath, dissect the defense. And that's something that we talked about prior to him coming to the Bucs as maybe a weird fit. And obviously Brady won over towards the end of the career and he started playing better. So I think that this is actually an upgrade.

Byron Lefkowitz is still the OC, and I don't think anything matters. It's Brady's offense. Brady's going to do whatever he wants. Much like how if we ever had the opportunity to sit down for a few drinks with Kyle Shanahan, and I think he would eventually tell us that he was going to draft Mac Jones until public pressure caught up to him. I also think if we sat down with Brady and he was being very honest, something happened to the Bucks last year, which is why all of them have spoken quietly about turmoil towards the end of

the season. And then when Bruce Arians, when he decidedly was going to step down, that's when Brady decided he was going to return. Yeah. I don't think we'll ever know, but we'll never know. Yeah. I think there's something there for sure, because it didn't seem like a guy that they would, that he would want to retire at that point. So I think that was part of a break at the end too, in new England,

was he just at a certain point was kind of tired of, even though it worked, he kind of was a little tired of being I'm one of 52. And he, at a certain point was like Tom Brady. And I want a little bit of that. And I think he was feeling that a little bit in Tampa again, where he's like, no, you're starting, we're starting to do the same stuff again. Like, you know, I, it should be a little bit different. Don't talk to me that way. And maybe you could say that that's weak. You could say that maybe you've earned that over time. But I think there's

probably something there that we will definitely... We've had Tom versus time. We've had all these different documentaries. I don't think we're going to get another documentary, man in the arena, man outside of the arena, when we find out what happened in Tampa Bay in that 2021 season. Hilarious isn't the right word for it, but I still think it's, I don't know, it's something that Greg Olson is going to put his heart and soul into a job he wants, and he's okay, whatever. But then Brady's going to show up, and he could suck at it. It doesn't even matter.

Greg Olson gets demoted literally immediately. The moment Brady retires. It's pretty ridiculous. It's true. Yeah. Houston, Lovey Smith. I don't know what David Culley could have done last year. Seemed to be exceeding expectations that we had for that team and that talent. But he is one and done.

And even worse, they just promote Lovey, who has not done much of anything since kind of leading a i guess uh rex grossman led bears team to the super bowl back in 05 uh bad stints in college not great stints as a uh as a pretty straightforward cover two guy with that tony tony dungy cover two defense he's now promoted to be the head coach there. Pep Hamilton, though, does get another chance as an offensive coordinator. He's had some success at times in Indy with Andrew Luck. Was there for that first year with Justin Herbert out in L.A. So that'll be interesting to see.

Maybe he can unpack a little bit more that we saw from Davis Mills, who, again, another guy I think exceeded our expectations. He kind of gets a one-year prove-it deal because we don't expect the Texans to be very good. We expect there to be numerous first round draft picks at the quarterback position next year's draft, but we'll see what happens here with Lovey and Pep Hamilton, defensive coordinator. DC will be, you know, Lovey is still going to be taking on that role. So Connor, thoughts on Lovey and the Texans. I mean, I think, I think Lovey, Lovey's a bum. I think he's a fine defensive coordinator, but as a head coach, he's an absolute dolt. I mean, 17 and 39 at, at Illinois. Like, I mean,

he couldn't turn around even the slightest, a program that was already just dead to begin with. Like he couldn't even show some signs of life. And then, you know, I mean, the last time we saw him coach Tampa Bay, you know, he was not great there either. I And then, you know, I mean, the last time we saw him coach Tampa Bay, you know, he was not great there either. I think, you know, obviously he gets a lot of notoriety for his seasons with the Bears where, you know, he obviously like, you know, helped a great defense that had, you know, a ton of talent play even better. But I think that's just what he is.

He's a fine defensive coordinator, but as a head coach, he's, I don't know, not a leader of men. I don't really know what it is, but, you know, I'm not behind the scenes, but there's obviously something behind being a terrible head coach for multiple stints. So I don't know. I think that the offense, though, is interesting. I think that there's Brandon Cooks has upside. I think Davis Mills played better than we expected, especially once he started facing

secondaries. There were not like top five in every metric. So yeah, I think that the Texans are fine. They just, as we mentioned on our scheduling pod, have some really tough scheduling quirks, and they have very little rest. Like, their net rest is negative, and they play, like, a top-five, top-six schedule in terms of what Vegas win total.

So it's a tough team to back here. Like Coley, I imagine Lovey's there only to be the scapegoat, and he also loses his job the moment they turn things around. I don't think he's meant to be the scapegoat. And he also loses his job the moment they turn things around. I don't think he's meant to be the actual successor. I think he's just a bridge until they get the guy they want, whoever that may be, because that's how this organization does things for better or worse. And yeah, Mills was good.

68% completion rate, 7.3 yards per 10th across his last five starts. Good enough to earn another nod at it, especially since they are rebuilding and don't have a better option. But overall, yeah, I just think they're still the Texans because they don't know how to identify talent, really. They still just continue to build based on what they believe, and we know what they believe is wrong. It's that simple.

Yeah, that organization from the top down, it's a mess as far as ownership. And it would be interesting to see who wants to take that on in a full-time role because I kind of agree with you. I don't really know what to make of the Lovey thing as far as him being able to earn himself into an extended full-time role here, which obviously he is right now. But I just can't see him being part of developments of a new quarterback. Pepe Hamilton maybe, but, I mean, we'll see what happens there,

but the not high expectations again for the Texans. We'll bust through these. You guys can, you know, let me know as far as those are the head coaches. We can touch on some of the other coordinators. Let me know if you think there is anything that's worthwhile sharing here. We have Ben McAdoo moving into the OC position for the Carolina Panthers. You know, additions on the offensive line, hopefully Christian McCaffrey back, questions the quarterback.

Again, we had an offensive coordinator, Joe Brady, who we all thought was kind of like a shoo-in to be a head coaching candidate in the offseason, gets canned midseason, was picked up to be a quarterback coach for the Bills. Now we bring in Bob McAdoo, who was pretty pass heavy with the Giants and the, you know, Joe Brady got fired because they weren't running enough. So what's going to happen here, Connor? Yeah, that's exactly my notes. I mean, he finished ninth, eighth and sixth and first in pass attempts in his four seasons with the Giants ran a ton of 11 personnel. I mean, that's what he was

known for coming into the Giants head coach from the Packers. And I mean, now the all the whole reason that Joe Brady was fired was Matt rule said that he wanted to run the ball more and that, you know, he didn't like how Joe Brady was doing passing the ball. So if he seems like a terrible fit, I mean, I don't know.

I don't, I don't understand it at all, but I also have like very little faith in the Panthers to be honest at this point. Yeah. I don't know. I'm not interested. It's a double-edged sword because it is Sam Donald at the end of the

day and Matt Corral, who we have many questions since he didn't even run NFL offense under Lane Kiffin. But remember, Sam Darnold against that easiest, that's an easy schedule to open the month, the first four games for Carolina last year. Three 300-yard games, average 297 yards and eight yards per attempt. And then, of course, over his last seven against a tougher schedule, 167 yards and a meaningless 5.1 yards per attempt just proved he's still Sam Darnold

and it was only the schedule that benefited him at the same time though it's double-edged sword because I I love Ben the visionary McAdoo I think he's a genius I really do the fact that before Sean McVay was even a thing Ben McAdoo was top two in 11 personnel in the entire league. He literally only ran 11 personnel. The offense was so bad with Eli Smith. He looked at everyone in the crowd. He looked at John Mora, even in attending dinners with Manning and his family and the Giants owners. He still benched Eli Manning for Geno Smith because that was the next best option. He't care Gino Smith's analogy for anyone is better than what I'm seeing on the field and I don't care what the owners want

I have to make this decision for myself so like also remember he also wanted to draft Mahomes they said no he wanted to drop draft Josh Allen the Giants said no like Ben McAdoo is actually very good at what he does but this is not the situation to be very good at and so again with Sam D Sam Darnold and Matt Corral, that's where I lose faith. But I do think McAdoo deserves to be in the league. I mean, it sounds like there's going to be a war. Like it sounds like Ben McAdoo is going to be like, we're doing this or we're benching this guy. And Matt rules can be like, no, we're not like there's, there's going to be some serious. We, I don't know why the hard knocks is not on them because this was going to be, it has been incredible room, uh, just to witness because I, I highly doubt that both of them make it through the season or end up like

in an amiable relationship this is not they're not quite there i think they're probably a tier below it but this is becoming one of those like denver teams to me were like last past couple years where they're like a quarterback away now i think that the panthers are probably a little bit below that but like again there's a lot of young up-and-coming encouraging talent on the defensive side of the ball they improve the offensive line a little bit we obviously like some of the pass catchers there's a lot of things to like here if they can get some at least even league average quarterback play in a pretty wide open division right we have questions about the saints we know the falcons are still a problem and you know the bucks are you know, the Bucs are, you know,

head and shoulders above everyone else. So, you know, there are some wins to be had in that division if they can get anything out of the quarterback position. It was the biggest failure by any team this offseason was yet again whipping on quarterback for the Panthers. No team made a larger mistake than that one. And they had two years to get it right. And they absolutely did nothing.

They did get Corral at value. I will say that. But again, and even though NFL evaluators do think Corral has the traits, you know, he has this arm strength, he has mobility, he flicks his wrist really quick. At the same time, again,

like just the fact he ran so many screen passes and was basically an RPO only guy under Lane Kiffin. Like we don't know if he knows NFL defenses. So just lots of question marks. No, it's true. I agree. You know, I've been kind of, I think that there's some upside there. He's small, he's mobile, which you don't love the small part when you're mobile.

But again, there's some downfield accuracy that was actually pretty encouraging. But again, like you said, that is very different than him being able to read defensive defenses, pre-snap or even post-snap. So so i believe he i believe he had multiple ankle injuries the past two years because he's mobile but too small to handle the load like everyone just always compares everyone to cam newton but you forget cam newton is like 75 300 pounds at quarterback like it's just a it's a different monster not everyone is meant to be mobile like josh allen too so yeah it's just lots to worry about the small rg3 and that didn't pan out very well for a sustained career. Uh, but that one year was fun. That one year was, it was a lot of fun. Uh, Gus Bradley is now

coaching the defense for the Colts. Gus Bradley, probably a decent defensive mind. I think he's still cashing checks on the back of a Legion of boom defense, uh, handful of years ago and, uh, just continues to get kicked around. But we think the Colts are going to be good though, Dagle. We do. I love the Colts personnel. A quick note on Gus Bradley though, is that one of the best stats is that last year, Patrick Mahomes, that Chiefs offense changed identities over the second half of the season. We've talked about this where they only dumped down the ball practically.

And Mahomes led the league from week eight on, I believe it was, and yards after the catch production. And if you look like Mahomes had three top 12 games and two of them came against Gus Bradley because he refused to alter the Raiders defense. When Mahomes struggled, he gets too high safety. Gus Bradley still played cover three on 90% of snaps and Mahomes smoked them on both games down the stretch. So I think Gus Bradley is a stubborn, non-progressive play caller.

But at the same time, I do think there's a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. It seems like Matt Ryan is starting his own breakfast club as well with basically every single player on that offense. So lots of hope in the Colts. I agree. Connor, any Gus Bradley takes? No Gus Bradley takes, but I think that we need to make a play official on our move line tracker Colts to win.

The division is like pretty close to even. I think we're all pretty bullish on them. Yeah. So I think we, I was thinking about this mid episode, you know, I think we need to make that official after. As I wrote in my best ball tier, cause I was diving into like the splits and again, the splits would make these things so hard.

Cause so many things happen throughout the season that we just forget about. But yeah, Tannehill averaged 5.5 yards per attempt without Julio Jones and A.J. Brown last year on the field. And I understand we replaced those two, and they may not seem like a big sample, but that actually happened on 31% of Daniel's dropbacks. He was just piss poor without those players on the field.

And now we have Trey Lumberts trying to get up to speed. Also, his conditioning is lacking right now for whatever it's worth. And OTAs plus Robert Woods trying to come back from November's injury. So lots to like just be worried about with the Titans.

Yeah, we can still get what basically minus 105. It looks like on FanDuel and MGM using our 444 futures bets table here on the site, which is free. Check it out. Yeah.

One Oh five on fan duel in MGM. The Falcons were dead last and pressure rate allowed and ESPNs pass win block rate metric. Like, and now Ryan gets to go from that to literally what is the best offensive line he's ever played with his entire career. Like it's just two totally different offenses via one position change. It's,

it's probably going to take him like a game or two where he's just throwing the ball away and he doesn't need to, you know, and like, he's not going to afford that. Oh yeah, for sure. Like,

remember like how many games Wentz lost for them last year, including week one against the Jaguars with that pick six at the end. And even then they came one game with him making the playoffs. It's just Wentz crater down the stretch. I mean, they came one game with him making the playoffs. It just went crater down the stretch. I mean, this is a very Michael Pittman friendly show and he continues to ascend to be an alpha Liam Cohen coming over from Kentucky, which had an interesting offense.

But again, he is going to be the offensive coordinator for Sean McVay, which we know this is a Sean McVay offense. Bigger than any impact here at all. He and Sean McVay's sideline handler are going to be the next head coaches in the league we know what happens here is that like I don't even know if they matter like I don't think they do anything on the Rams like Kevin O'Connell and everyone else but they do learn under Sean McVay yeah I agree and it's like because like these guys

don't go everywhere then like screw it up like Belichick disciples like they are very clearly all young guys trying to soak up all the knowledge they see around them in the Rams front office and under McVay in particular. So yeah, I don't think he's going to do anything, but will he be the next head coach in like five years? Probably.

Yeah. I mean, he, since he's a college offensive coordinator from the college game, I think he probably lasts like maybe two years, three years, but whenever the time is ready, you know,

McVay will send him on to his next, you know, next stint as an office coordinator. And how many more years does McVay even have? Like what? Two? Like he's getting out as quickly as Aaron Donald is. Like he knows he can't do this forever.

So like he, it actually just may be McVay walks away and allows him to take over. That's the Daigle mindset. You want to be, you, you envy that like the like he's like 36 and he's like has plans to just step away from what he i just appreciate it i appreciate it so much you see aaron donald going on like mcafee and these other shows and just like

no sweat in his brow whatsoever he's like no they don't meet my demands i'm at peace like i'm pretty happy right now with everything i've accomplished at what is he 31 is that how old he is yeah um he's he's he's living the life he no i think that's the best route to go in life he can make money doing tv or anything else whatever he wants to do and you know well the bet you know what the best is is the the andrew lux the world who just goes sailing and you never hear from him again yeah every now and then you'll get a uh hairy neck beard photo of him talking to a high school, like, like encouraging them. Otherwise you literally never hear from Andrew Luck.

That's the day go live. It's been gone forever. Mike McDonald is switching Harbaugh brothers. He is going from Jim to John in going from Michigan to defensive coordinator to now the defensive coordinator filling up for Wink Martindale in Baltimore. Probably not impactful. Again, they have a lot of talent. They will continue to be, if healthy,

a dominant defense, or at least a above-average defense. If they can get healthy in the secondary, especially Diggle, any thoughts on Mike McDonald? They'll be healthy. They're added to their trenches significantly in free agency,

and that's really what it came down to. Martindale didn't deserve to be fired, but they needed to find someone to blame. And so it's no surprise they parted ways after that amount of time. Also slightly worrisome since the Giants, like Martindale's scheme runs around a shutdown corner and Martindale doesn't have one currently,

but it's still a year one in a rebuild for the Giants. So no worries. But overall, yes, the Ravens are healthy. And that's literally just what it comes down to is adding a pass rush and being healthy. And they will be that in week one connor thoughts nope summed up well summed up well uh the lions have a new offensive coordinator in ben johnson i think the important thing here is just the influx of talent and speed similar to what we were talking

about earlier with the dolphins uh we're really dealing with Josh or with with Jared golf, just kind of being obviously, you know, check down King is 6.4 air yards per drop back last year. We're dead last part of that is obviously him. I was the offensive line, which I do think is continuing to get better, but now obviously adding DJ Chark and Jameson Williams, who, you know, is hopefully trending to be healthy sooner than later.

They are going to have speed on this offense. So I think you see a little bit more of a downfield passing game if Goff is comfortable doing so. Andre Johnson, Dago, what do you think about this move? I'm actually more concerned. Not concerned. I'm more focusing on what's happening on offense because we're still unsure if it's going to be Dan Campbell calling plays.

Because remember, Anthony Lynn called plays until the Lions started 0-8, went to their bye week. Dan Campbell removed him and started calling his own plays. And then what we saw was a transition from running the ball at the 11th highest rate when they were trailing to then running the ball at the, uh, no, I got that number wrong. Um, Connor, go ahead. Uh, I panicked. No, no. I, I mean, I think the point you're making is good.

I think the, the downgrade from Anthony Lynn to whoever this guy is, you know, it's basically been a quality control analyst and office of assistant for a little while, you know, like, I mean, just been a positional coach. And now, I mean, I don't really think that Dan Campbell as much of the chops either to be an offensive guru for a team that, I mean, I know everyone likes the talent. I think it's very fair to think that they're going to be better, but I think there's still plenty of concerns about Jared Goff.

You know, I think the offensive line is good, but I'm not sure that it's like fully elite. You know, there were some times line is good, but I'm not sure that it's like fully elite. You know, there were some times where it wasn't. So I don't know. I just like, I think Jared Goff is limiting unless you have a guy like Sean McVay kind of like guiding the ship there and being able to take advantage of some of those things.

So yeah, I'm kind of out on this offense in terms of like how much hype they've been getting in the off season. What I was trying to cite, Noonan, was passing the ball. That's where I got mixed up in my notes. Passing the ball at the league's 11th highest rate when trailing compared to 28th overall.

So bottom five in the league passing the ball when trailing under Dan Campbell from week 10 on. That's why you see so many carries when you look up between DeAndre Swift, Craig Reynolds, Jamal Williams, and they were all in and out of the lineup over the last half of the season. But overall, they established their dominance through the trenches, unsurprisingly, under Dan Campbell when he took over.

And so it matters, especially if we think their defense and their personnel overall is better, because it means it's better for Jamal Williams and DeAndre Swift. So I would definitely like to know, especially because Jared Goff, Yard, Pertempt have dipped in four consecutive seasons now. So I would definitely like to know who is calling plays,

and that's what I'm looking for. No offense to the Reynolds, Craig Reynolds or the Reynolds family. That's not a name that I even had thought about since it happened. And that tells you probably pretty good and healthy. They were able to kind of move on and divorce ourselves of those things that happened and become so important for weeks at a time during the season. And then you can just be like, Oh, forget about him. Last one,

bills, offensive coordinator, coach, our offensive coordinator change with Ken Dorsey staying on the staff. He was the QB coach last year. Obviously we talked about Brian Dayball and his impact. We impact, we hope he makes for the giants or think he can make.

And it's hard not to think that he was impactful for Josh Allen. What is left behind was just osmosis being in that room. Does that help Ken Dorsey? Do we expect anything different, Connor, from this change with Dorsey taking over and really the development that we've seen for Josh Allen and this team who everyone thinks is probably the favorite, maybe the best team in the league? The talent is through the roof. Josh Allen has become a significant difference maker at the position.

They impacted here by the change. Yeah, no, I don't really think it's gonna be too much of an impact. I think that, yeah, I think that it might be a slight downgrade, but I don't know.

I think that, you know, as long as Dable has been able to inject some of his willingness to change and kind of like adapt to situations like he did over the course of his career into a guy like Ken Dorsey, who was, who was there as the quarterback's coach. I think that they'll probably be just fine and they have enough talent around them to kind of sustain any, you know, whatever issues that he brings, I guess, early on. So I think that they'll be just fine. Tougher schedule, but yes, I don't think it matters really. Uh, we know what they're going

to do. They added James Cook, tried to get mckissick for this specific reason james cook didn't even handle more than 12 carries in any game throughout his college career doesn't matter because they are going to use him strictly on third downs and involving him more in the passing game to actually have an explosive option underneath for mismatches against linebackers and safeties what devil's singletary can't do in that role so we know they're going to change their offense a little bit, adding that facet, but otherwise, same thing as always. Yeah, we did see a change with them at the end of the season too, which I think we saw a little bit more different looks.

We were seeing a lot of five wide sets early in the season, and I think towards the tail end of the season, we saw a little bit more 11 personnel and some different stuff with Reggie Gillum and stuff like that i think five wide though was not because they believe in their five receivers it's because to spread out the defense that way to allow josh allen to run more in man schemes yeah which worked and was uh awesome for fantasy for sure and um yes they they committed a murder in new england yes it worked they did they sure did. Two of them, or one in

New England and then one in Buffalo a couple weeks later. Alright, fellas. Good job. That's a good June 1st football show from you both. Daniel, what's going on over on the site as far as all the stuff that you've been grinding out? For as slow as football betting topics are,

football best ball and redraft rankings are coming out hot paulson not only has the projections up and running and altering them every day according to ota news but also he is now breaking them down and putting words to his reasoning and so his articles are on the site my best ball tears plus the underdog top 250 where you should download the csv i believe it's still free too, which is egregious. Luis, we got to change that.

And you can just tack on to underdog and then use those rankings to put Paulson's and my game theory into perspective and then play with ADP. Use it as a guideline, not your blueprint, but it's certainly there to help you. And so, yeah,

everything's coming out the site, including, like I mentioned, my best ball tiers that gives reasoning to the top 250 as well. So just stay tuned because it's all churning out. That's a must. I mean, the CSV thing is a huge edge. You can click back into understanding what some of the general ADP is, but having ADP that's, or rankings that are different than the fields, because I think

that's probably still one of the biggest edges in best ball, no matter your platform, is adjusting the ranks to what you have and not going off of the site default rankings. Leveraging the work that Daigle and Paulson are doing is huge. Especially because in the last four rounds, what you'll notice, there are guys getting drafted in round 14 and 18 round best ball draft that Paulson doesn't even have ranked in the top 20 rounds. And people love assuming roles for rookies. Rookies are exciting to everyone because they have infinite ceilings at that

time. Right. We haven't seen them play yet. Thus everyone thinks that our next Mike Evans, Jamar chase, yada, yada, when really they're probably not going to do anything at all. So like right now we should be taking that advantage of that with the boring Kendrick Bourne's Mark Ingram's those guys of the world who like will have roles in week one, as opposed to the rookies. And we have a new site or landing page on the site too. It's dedicated to all of our underdog stuff. Uh, you could find that over there, all the strategy, all the tools, the tools are incredible too. So, uh, we are definitely the place to be. If you were looking

to go heavy in the underdog best ball streets, Connor, what are you working on? You got a lot of stuff going on too. Yeah. I mean, we're just trying to pop out some bets here, doing firing on some prize picks, some underdog pick'ems, really kind of getting deep into that streets because while maybe the odds aren't quite as good, I think that there's plenty of edge in terms of the lines that they set

and the markets that they offer. They offer a lot of different markets. So we're really trying to dig deep into that this year and kind of go heavy on that. So that's been fun. And then as we talked to you about here, we already have at least I have four bets out already on the year for season long props. Probably going to add another after this show and continue to add, you know, throughout

the offseason here because none of the player props have even dropped yet on most legal books. But on prize picks, there's already a bunch. So we grabbed like an Antonio Gibson under 1050 rushing yards, which I think is like we have projected for like 750, something like that. So, I i mean just like an egregious difference like i bet it opened at sportsbooks at like 900 and prize picks right now is floating a thousand fifty so get over there i'll find links on the site too to get into those streets if you uh are in a legal state or if you're in a state that can't get down on props um, most of those, uh, you know, price picks is the best way to do it.

So I continue to, uh, check that stuff out. We're on the site for Connor and Daniel. Um, Ryan, we'll be back next week. Thanks everyone.

Yeah.