Move The Line - NFL Combine Recap & Best NFL Draft Bets | CJ Stroud, Anthony Richardson & More!

Episode Date: March 10, 2023

Ryan, Connor & Scott recap the 2023 NFL Combine, going over the biggest risers and fallers and how the NFL Draft betting lines have moved. Should CJ Stroud be the odds-on favorite to go first overall in the draft? Should we bet on Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be the first WR taken? The MTL betting crew has the answers.Timestamps:0:00 Intro4:32 Anthony Richardson’s Rise12:37 NFL Draft First Player Taken Betting Odds 17:20 Will The Texans Take a Quarterback?21:50 NFL Draft First WR Taken Betting Odds 28:38 NFL Draft First Defensive Player Taken Betting Odds35:05 NFL Draft First CB Taken Betting Odds 42:00 NFL Draft First TE Taken Betting Odds 53:37 NFL Draft First OL Taken Betting Odds1:04:43 OutroShow Notes: Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Scott on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/scottsmithffVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaRead Scott’s Mock Draft 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3IuTxbsRead Connor's Mock Draft 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3JvZwP5 

It is the call before the storm. The underwear Olympics are finally behind us. Incredibly athletic dudes went to Indianapolis and did incredibly athletic things. But what does it all mean? And does any of it matter? Plus, we have the QB market finally taking shape. Pro days for agency fast approaching,

and hopefully so are some fresh betting markets, because that's why we're here. Let's talk about the NFL draft. We're going to unpack that all and more on this episode of move the line let's keep the music hello and welcome to move the lines i'm ryan newton joined as always in this spot as we are thirsting for some more action post combine it is connor allen how we doing doing well uh you know good to be back good to be talking to football the combine was obviously awesome uh to see you know all the good 40s all the stuff going on there but overall i'm excited to keep uh start betting on the draft a little bit get a few more markets out

joining us again our expert mock drafter here uh unpacked his previous mock draft first one on the draft a little bit, get a few more markets out. Joining us again, our expert mock drafter here, unpacked his previous mock draft. First one on the site. Actually Connor pulling out on the site as well. I'm sure we'll touch base on some of the things that Connor put in his free for you to, to read over on four for four.com. Scott Smith, Scott, how are we doing? Good man coming in off the road. I got to watch some of the underwear Olympics and unpack some of the data that's coming in and just some of the info coming out from some of the beat writers across the league.

And hey, we've got some quarterback dominoes falling as well. So a lot to unpack today. I'm happy to be here. Yeah, I think that's a big piece of it, too. And as I mentioned, we are, I think we're still just before it. So like, I don't want to throw a wet blanket on anything. I feel like we're really close. I feel like having the new league year, which is what the 15th, we're coming to that time. I think all that really matters because we need some of these dominoes to fall, but we're close. We're close enough to definitely continue to talk about what we've heard, what we've seen.

Some of the things that I think come out of the combine are actionable. I just, you know, there are things out there to bet on right now, and we're going to have time to get some of the answers right now. It's, you know, and I'm there with you. Like I combed through it all and I want to fire at some stuff. I have a couple of things that I want to toss to you guys that I want to maybe fire at, even though we don't necessarily know the answers. So I would say proceed with caution, continue to tune in, read Conor's mock draft, go back and read Scott's, take in as much information as you can so that when we can hit the ground running here in the coming days and weeks as things start to mature and information becomes a little bit more actionable.

Before we get into it, I want to tell you real quick, we're going to have a lot of great content, betting subscription live on the site over at 444.com slash plans. Betting sub takes you through the full year, access to everything. If you grind season long, DFS, betting, whatever it is, other sports, college hoops, NBA, lots of great stuff. That's the best way to get it. Right now, if you want to get just a taste of what we have going on

and you want to get some of this draft stuff we've partnered with vivid you know vivid vivid seats go on there and get your you know secondary tickets uh vivid also has a pick-up app uh similar to some other ones that you know out there right now deposit on vivid 15 bucks use our promo code 444 bets so 444 as you see behind me b-e-t-s 15 bucks and you get access for uh three months connor three months betting sub at four for four to get a check you know get your feet wet it'll take you through all the stuff obviously we have going on on the betting side right now through the draft which is uh gonna be an exciting time so uh i'll kick it to you connor let me know what you think give me some of your takeaways we can get into some position by position stuff, but you know, yeah, I think you can make the case

that the combine is a little bit nonsense. We know some guys don't do everything. You know, we got Bryce Young on the scale. You know, you checked in over 200 pounds, drank a shitload of water. You know, if you thought Bryce Young was too small, you probably still think he's too small. If you like Bryce Young, you probably still like Bryce Young, even though he made this arbitrary threshold of weight. But what are some actionable things that you think came out of Indy last week? Yeah, well, I guess something that's less actionable, but something that's worth noting here would be Anthony Richardson's just like meteoric rise up in the draft odds.

Just two weeks ago, he was 50 to one. Now we're looking at like three to one, four to one in most places. There was a mock that came out with the Colts trading up to one to select Anthony Richardson from a beat writer before the combine. Then he goes to the combine, runs in the four fours, is obviously six four, two 44, insane athlete. I mean, this is one of the best athletic performances that we've seen essentially of all time at the combine, but it's almost double counting. It is like, we knew he was athletic. If you go watch the tape, I mean, he's running away from dudes. He's bowling over guys. Like he does, he, he does look like Cam Newton at times when he was at Auburn. Like those are

things where, you know, we know those existed, but then we see him do it at the combine and now everyone's double counting, getting excited, steaming to that number one market. I'd be interested in Scott's sake here, but for me, I am not chasing the Anthony Richardson steam. I think that he's a fine player. He's a project, the upsides there, but based on what we're hearing, it doesn't seem very substantive with the steam right now. It seems mostly just kind of double counting based off that combine. Scott, do you need your quarterback to have a 10 foot nine inch broad jump? No, I don't. I mean, you look at the successful quarterbacks over the years and Tom Brady's and guys like that aren't doing anything

close to that. I think the guys that, uh, that were on Anthony Richardson are still on Anthony Richardson, but I don't think he's there. He, he's just not going to be the first quarterback pick. There's still holes in his game. Everything that we thought about Anthony Richardson before the draft is still, I mean, before the combine is still sitting there the same. We knew he was going to test well, much better than what the rest of the quarterbacks in his draft class were going to test. And to me, I actually think that Bryce Young weighing in where he weighed in at is bigger than anything that Anthony Richardson did at the combine. Interesting. Yeah. I like that take. You know um you know we again we'll have pro day

alabama we'll you know script that and schedule that out under the perfect conditions reading some you know reports uh it was scouts thought it was actually a pretty good thing that he didn't go and throw uh in comparison to like a massive beast of anthony richardson or even will levis and obviously cj stroud went out and had himself a nice week because I think some of the things that people like about Bryce Young and how they think he translates to the NFL, his ability to throw, you know, off balance and off script and, you know, creating, that's not going to show up in the structure of the combine.

So the pro days are going to matter too. Again, those are always interesting and I think are important, but it makes sense that, you know, Hey, what's he going to weigh? He's probably not going to weigh in again at Alabama's pro day. He already weighed in. He, he got the thresholds. He met the 204 and I was feeling pretty good about it, but it's, it's definitely interesting takeaway considering like we knew this dude was huge and fast Richardson, right? Like it's incredible to see there. We're seeing some things that we've never seen before, like i think there are still some limitations in terms of him being a pocket passer to connor's point we've moved right we've moved from 30 to 3 if you missed if you have the 30 congratulations you were sitting at three with really no other information other than

he went out and did what we thought he was going to do. If we really get to a point where there is a trade to the number one spot and it becomes clear that he is the target, and that moves very quickly, and that moves to minus 200. I will make the case that I think betting into the minus 200 with some information is way better than sitting here firing into the plus 300 when I think you can make a case for all four dudes and maybe we'll love this is slipping out of that mix but like i don't know it just takes one right the one team that trades up is identify will levis as the guy i think they're all in the mix connor i don't know what your thoughts are there yeah no i totally agree i i really think that right now laying any kind of juice is probably the worst bet on the board um and so bry for me is not a good bet at this point, even though I think he's probably

the most likely to go number one. We just don't know. And then beyond that too, like chasing the scene with Anthony Richardson just doesn't make sense. We have no idea other than what we've already seen. And there's been a lot of rumors like, oh, coaches like this guy or GMs are fascinated with his upside. Those are quotes that have been pulled out from different sources. If we like look at the teams in the top 10 here, none of them are really, there's only two teams that I see that are really equipped to handle a guy that has the upside and really capitalize on that. And that to me, that's the Seahawks and the lions because they have a quarterback in place that can sit and they can let Anthony Richardson sit for a year. I mean, imagine if he goes to the Texans and plays week one.

He's going to get wrecked. Like, I think a great example and an easy comparison for listeners to understand would be if you watch Justin Fields when he played for like a couple weeks in his rookie year, it was a complete disaster. Like, it was a train wreck. He wasn't reading everything. And Justin Fields was a significantly better passer in college than Anthony Richardson was. And like still was, I mean, relatively lost because he didn't have anyone around him. He didn't have a scheme around him.

He didn't have, like, he wasn't able to translate that right away and needed a lot of work. And like, that's going to be like what Anthony Richardson is except like double, like double the, the issues I think, which is a really scary to think about.

And he's just going to have to rely on his real athleticism. Yes. And Scott, it doesn't sound like he necessarily wild people in the interview section. You know, I think maybe in terms of like whiteboard, he's probably four of the four. I think that that matters. You know, we've seen it less and less over the last handful of years, guys going at or

near the top, sitting a little bit. Connor just referenced, you know, Justin Fields. You know, we had Trey Lance obviously sat for a while. You know, Baker Mayfield, I think is the last one-on-one that i can think of that didn't start for you know it's his team right away you definitely know that again teams are getting smarter they know they have to capitalize on that rookie window and being able to basically red shirt a guy for a year he's that dude uh teams are probably willing to do it it's just it's, it's one of those picks where your basically job is on the line, right? If it doesn't land.

Yeah. And I think that's the case for both the GMs and the coaches in this position. And you really just have to look at where he's at developmentally as a passer. You look at the quarterbacks that compare to him and you look at Lamar Jackson. We talked about Lamar Jackson and where he's at. Lamar Jackson was a lot further along as a passer and able to do a lot of the things, albeit with a smaller frame than what Anthony Richardson has. But I still say the same thing that we said on last show. He's still a year or two away and it's going to take the right team that has both the GM and the and the coach on a solid footing to go ahead and take him to wait because you're not getting four

years or five years of production on this rookie contract you're getting three maybe and that's what you're going to have to make a decision and there's some coaches drafting here and some GMs drafting here in the top 10 that don't have that luxury of being able to sit for that one or two years and wait for that production. So I look at it and specifically when you start talking about Anthony Richardson, where he was in mock drafts pre-combine, he was sitting around 10, 11 spot. Right now, after the combine, mock drafts are shifting. A lot of people got hyped up about his production and what he did at the combine. And now he's sitting in combines at an average pick of 5.6 right now. So they've moved him up into the top six range. So I could see him there with a team like Seattle, with a team like Detroit, right there in that five to six range.

But I absolutely do not buy the steam, do not buy the juice that he's moving up and will be a top overall pick there. So it's a bet that I'm staying away from. I think when we start talking about that first overall pick, it's going to be very much team dependent, but I think you're really looking at either CJ Stroud or Bryce Young. And so we know, Connor, it's really hard to continue to speculate, but let's bring up the number one pick odds onto the screen here. If you're listening in audio podcast form, we appreciate it. Rate and review while you're there helps us a ton. We're

also doing this on YouTube as well. And we can show you some of the cool tools and stuff that we have on our back end. We have a new tool that just launched that we can show you basically an odds board where you can get the best odds all in one screen. Domestics only, of course, but it gives you an idea of kind of where we're on the market. And what Connor continues to reference is laying any juice at this point. Bryce Young across the board is minus 134 on points. That's the best number to be the first overall pick. And I think I agree with Connor's point there that holding off and laying juice until we really know who's making that pick is probably uh advised you can see the movement here cj stroud is the other kind of the bell of the ball in terms of what happened last week in indy

just very safe checked out uh you know in terms of the size that we were looking for maybe not the athlete uh that an anthony Anthony Richardson is, or even maybe a Will Levis, but deep ball accuracy was pretty fantastic. He's moved quite a bit as well. Any takeaways here, Connor? I know you're not necessarily firing into this market right now, but how would you approach it? Yeah. My two small positions that I have right now is I took a little bit of CJ Strata plus 400. I took a little bit of Will Levis at 16 to one right now. I think that's still fine. I mean, I'm talking about a really small chunk of change here if you want to speculate on the market,

because if you look at the pro day schedule here, I believe something that Scott's been keeping track of here and just notified me of is that we see Ohio State's pro day first. So if you do want to action on Bryce Young or you want action on someone else, generally the way these markets work is right after the pro day,

you're going to get a ton of reports. Be like, hey, this guy, every team loves this guy, you know, look at how good he was in the pro day. Look at how amazing he is, you know, and then the odds move accordingly because a lot of it's just steam based, uh, until there's information and there won't be information for, uh, you know, a month and a half at this point, probably a month or so. So if you want a Bryce Young, if you want, you know, an Anthony Richardson, I would wait until the pro day and you can wait until CJ Stroud's odds get juiced up a little bit. And, but then we're getting Alabama's pro day the next day.

So you have a short window. You have like a, I don't know what six hour window, probably six to 10 hour window at night where you'll be able to get it. So that's probably my biggest takeaway and something that it's just a little key there for draft betting that wait till the pro days. The most hype is right after their pro day. Like that is like the peak of every player's hype we're gonna all get the clip they're gonna run that like play action bootleg um you know on the run throw that's an absolute laser down the middle

of field to you know some little dude in shorts and a t-shirt on running uncovered uh it's gonna be a dime and people are gonna just go nuts nuts. It's just like an annual thing. It's the Zach Wilson throw. You know, it's solidified Zach Wilson. And it's like, how did that work out? But it's coming. I promise. We're definitely seeing it.

We'll see it for all these dudes. And, you know, I understand we're excited. So I don't mean to be a wet blanket on anyone's excitement around some of these things. I just think it's like, you got to be careful. You just got to, whenever you, you know,

just because it's there doesn't mean we have to yet uh we will get you know some answers to the test at some point and I think proceeding with caution is probably the right way to do it I still think at this point looking at that board I still think Will Levis is probably the best way to get in on the top like you just can have a team identify him as being their guy and i don't think there's a massive differentiator between all of them and he's the best odds on the board the longest odds so um again it just it takes one team uh we have you know again we've talked about early we have some quarterback for agency shifting but we still have these teams you know the texans which and we can get to that there's been reports that hey te Texans aren't an obvious play to take a quarterback,

which seems unlikely, but maybe, right? The Texans, the Colts, the Panthers. You know, we don't know what a bunch of these other teams are going to do as well. Like they're a handful of, you know, the Raiders need a quarterback. So it feels like there are clear sets, but if one of them wants to move up to get one to identify their guy it could be it could be all of them right just a couple years ago we're removed from it definitely being mac jones the niners made the trade everyone lost their mind and it was going to be mac jones and everyone thought they liked justin fields but then it's

like oh no and then it'd be trade lance and we just i think we're still kind of in this this a little bit of silly phase of not knowing and at that point if you feel inclined that you have to bet in this market i would say proceed with caution sprinkle like connor said and look for the longest odds on the board i i do want to say too uh you know shout out to us because will levis on our last episode was plus like 500 to be the number one pick and we all said like hey like hold on a little bit you'll get better odds i didn't think we'd ever see a 16 to 1 again but like at this point you know like i i mean again like you know worth like a little little shot here but i do want to touch on the one thing you mentioned there and i want scott's opinion there was thoughts on like they said the

houston texans came out and were like hey like well they might not take a quarterback to me that seems like fluff like to me that seems like total bs um just given where they're at as a franchise are you buying that at all, Scott? No. I mean, you looked at what they did last year and how anemic that offense was and the pieces that they need. And they're just not in a position to ride another year the way that they rode last year. And you look at the quarterbacks that they have on the board right now.

I think there's a strong case for either Stroud or Bryce Young to be there in that top two. I think it's just a little bit of fluff to entice some of these teams to come in and make highball offers and think that, hey, if, say, Bryce Young's the top overall pick and another team really values C.J. Stroud, it could be Houston who may have a higher valuation on Will Levis, but is willing to move down a couple of spots and take a guy

like Levis and recoup a lot of draft stock to go ahead and move down and do so. So I think when you start hearing some of these things, that's what you have to start looking at is, you know, does a team like Houston have maybe a higher grade on Levis than what they do on some of these other quarterbacks or a marginal threshold in between how they grade these guys. They could have a similar grade on two guys and they're willing to take the one that's lower if that means recouping more draft stock. Also with the Texans too, if we go back to last year,

you know, one of Casario's kind of first substantial drafts, we did not know shit until like 24 hours before the draft where they're like oh could be derrick stingley and i believe it was lance zero line so that's gonna be kind of my go-to guy for texan stuff this year because a lot of the local guys were wrong i mean across the board including the jets and other places as well but he was the one i believe who got the first scoop was like hey like i'm hearing derrick stingley is very much in play and all of us kind of i mean we didn't discount it we got on the 40 to 1 you know because the odds were 40 to 1 one of the best tickets of the week of the weekend yeah right yeah walker hutch stingley 40 to 1 was incredible but at the same time like it just goes to show like we're hearing

this now means nothing like to me it means nothing i agree i think it's posturing the pushback would be that division's kind of garbage right right? They could probably be serviceable, but do they even want to because there's a clear prize at the end of next season, right? And if you need a quarterback, putting yourself in position to draft Caleb Williams is just, it is different. So again, I it's, it's a hard sell. It's a hard sell to, you know, ownership you know, the first year coach for sure. You know, Again, it's a hard sell. It's a hard sell to ownership. First-year coach, for sure.

A GM who's maybe fighting to keep his job, it's a little bit harder of a sell. So I do think it's posturing to Connor and Scott's point. But I think it is important to understand what's there at the end of the tunnel, leveraging to get one of these guys, to get the fourth of these guys, whoever you think that is, because someone's going to get the fourth of these guys, whoever you think that is, because someone's going to get the fourth of them, right? Like they are going to tell you absolutely that that was their number one quarterback on the board,

regardless of what happens, right? Whoever takes the guy number four, well, we didn't have to move up to get it because we knew, but like, it's just very different next year where there feels like a real layup in comparison to what's happened the last couple of years at the quarterback

position, really right outside of Trevor Lawrence. We knew that was happening. You know, Caleb feels like the same kind of guy. A hundred percent. But I think in an ideal world, you're totally right. You tank,

you know, you're like from a long term perspective, you have very clear plan. Okay. Get the number one pick next year. But I think Davis mills and lovey Smith might have something to say about that after this year, when they're three,

two and one in the division last year. 3-2-1 in that division with that coach and all that. Yeah, so like they might not even be able to tank because the rest of the division is so bad. Yeah, it's just like obviously in theory it sounds great, but it's just something that's like so hard to do in practice. Like you think D'Amico Ryan's going to come in there and be like, oh, yeah, sure, I'm on board with that. Like you need like five years of job security to be willing to do that that. And I mean, I don't think anyone in the NFL has that outside of a couple of people. So. Other big shift and probably, you know, a highlight that happened from the combine was at the wide receiver position. There's a position that we think is,

you know, it's down in comparison to other seasons pretty frequently. And we know early in the mock season, it is a lot of cut and paste, right? There's just, we don't have a lot of fully formed opinions. We don't have a lot of information. And again, I want to stress, free agency goes a long way in shaping these team needs. Very often we were seeing Quinton Johnston, the big wide receiver from TCU being the first wide receiver

in most mock drafts. I think it became very clear over the weekend with the testing and some of the things that we saw from Jackson Smith and Jigma that he is very likely the first wide receiver off the board that is now reflected, as you can see here, looking at our odds table in the marketplace. Obviously, we had some concerns about JSN after not playing a full season last year, some size concerns, how would he fit? And I think that's kind of, I think indicative of this entire class is I think these guys are, you know, more so than just plug and play wide receiver

ones. Some of these guys are a little bit more scheme dependent, but I think what JSN did was pretty impressive. Scott, I don't know what your takeaways were. The three-cone stuff, I think some of that could be nonsense in terms of what position is doing it. It matters that the wide receiver position, and he went out there and was electric in testing. Yeah, I think he answered a lot of questions and reminded people of who he was. He came in, measured a little bit bigger than I thought he was,

6'5 inches 196 pounds but when we start talking about that three cone drill especially for guys that work out of the slot 6.57 seconds and then came in with the 20 yard short shuttle 3.93 seconds that's 96th and 97th percentile testing at the wide receiver position for two drills that we do see you know it suggests that you're going to have success there at that level. You start looking into some of the fantasy analytics that we look at with, you know, when they have a breakout and things like that, he's got that on his side. So I think he did himself well in the biggest, one of the biggest jumps that we see here. And look,

even from a mock draft standpoint, his numbers are going up. So he's actually overtaken Jordan Addison in a lot of mock drafts as a second wide receiver taken. We're talking about, you know, the argument, is he going to be the first? I think you can argue that Quentin Johnson weighed in and measured a little bit smaller and what some people thought he was listed at six, four at Texas, uh, Christian, but, uh, he came in at six, two at the combine. So there is some argument there for Jackson Smith and Jigba and what he did. And I think that's some hype that's going to roll over into his pro day. Is this bettable right now, Connor? Plus 125 on FanDuel?

No, I don't think so. I mean, I think that this is a little bit of an overreaction. I thought that it, I mean, again, before the combine, he was like plus 300 plus 400 to be the first wide receiver. And then he didn't run the 40, uh, Addison just did. And then hurt himself by doing that because Addison was the favorite at like minus one 10 heading into the combine. And so right now I think it's notable. Daniel Jeremiah actually bumped Addison up somehow in his rankings has a ninth overall in his top 50. Uh, and generally Daniel Jeremiah's rankings are a blend of what he's hearing from teams. In addition to his own evaluations. Now he was higher on him before the combine as well. But if we look at Jordan Addison, like his route

running is really smooth. Sam Hoppin, uh, you know, kind of did a blend of route running versus man route running versus zone and like put a chart together. JSN sophomore season was incredible, like broke the chart, but Jordan Addison season, uh, the last season was incredible like broke the chart but jordan addison season uh the last season was incredible as well so we're looking at plus 550 at draft kings i mean if i have to play this market i'm not currently playing it if i have to play it i think that's probably where i go plus 550 for addison or even further down the board at plus 750 at draft kings on zay flowers is we're getting a ton of hype as well but personally i think i think in jigba should be the favorite i think he's likely to be the favorite but favorite, but I'm not willing to lay juice right now with such a situation where you don't have,

like these guys aren't going like top six, top 10. Like you don't have penciled in slots for them. There's so much more volatility after you get outside of like the first 10 picks because a team could trade up and really love a guy and pick them over JSN. So for me, it's kind of a stay away in this market. Yeah, that's understandable.

I get it. You make a good point. I mean yeah it's understandable i get it you make a good point i mean it's shifted but uh maybe too much the one thing that i think is interesting here is that we go out and we have some great testing and thought some of the movement stuff is incredible but it becomes like brian hartline former you know nfl receiver now the wide receiver coach at ohio state even the guys that played with him, Olave, Garrett Wilson, are like – but again, it's not unlikely or uncommon for a guy to go to bat for his dude who thinks of what they're saying.

You know, I don't know. Do you make anything to that, Scott, with some of the stuff that's coming out of Ohio State and the love that Jason is getting? No, I mean, look, the, the Ohio state guys tout for the Ohio state guys. I mean, it's the Ohio state, you know, they're going to go ahead and do that. And it's, it's the same thing you've seen even with the Alabama guys. Like you had a lot of Alabama guys,

even with Tua and what Tua was doing, the wide receivers that were coming out of Alabama guys, even with Tua and what Tua was doing. The wide receivers that were coming out of Alabama were all touting for Mac Jones when it was Mac Jones' turn to come in through the draft. That's just something that's going to go ahead and happen. I think when you start looking at some of these players and where they're going and what's happening, a lot of the movement that you're seeing is coming from guys and coming from people in the media that aren't necessarily as tuned in as some of the other people are're seeing is coming from guys and coming from people in the media that aren't necessarily as tuned in as some of the other people i don't think some of these big

swings that you have even with guys with jackson smith and jigba like the hype that he's getting post combine i i don't think that the combine did that much to go ahead and move any front offices to to move him 10 picks. I always kind of say it's a plus minus five picks as far as movement goes. You're not going to have a player really jump from being a mid-20s prospect to being a top 10 prospect. So I still think as far as Jackson Smith and Jigba, did he do extra stuff at the combine that can go ahead and move him to being the first wide receiver drafted?

I think there is a little bit there that you can look into. But as far as him having a drastic movement in the first round and having, you know, some of the stuff that's coming out of Ohio State, those guys are going to tout and it's not going to move the needle with the front office. The things that move the needle with front offices are things that we're not privy to. And a lot of that comes with interviews at the combine that's the most important thing that happens at the combine other than medical information that we don't have access to that's like the heart of how it started it just was like a place to like poke and prod and like accept illegally get ways to get their uh their medical information and like we might as well have them run some routes while we're here.

You know, like we're going to go to dinner for a little bit. We got all their medicals. Let's have them come here together and do some stuff. So interesting times. So let's shift really quick to the defensive side. I think some of the biggest news since we last met was the Jalen Carter situation, the defensive tackle out of Georgia. Obviously, unless you've been living under a rock for a week.

I mean, if you're plugged into this show and you don't know what happened with Jalen Carter, it's a very weird Venn diagram. But obviously, some legal issues that's happened and shifted. First defensive player market. We jumped on it right away, Connor, when it first came out because we thought that the Will Anderson number at like plus 340 was just really off when it felt like there was still more of a coin flip situation in terms of who was going to end up taking and making that pick

in terms of the needs at the top of the board. You know, even with the Bears, the Bears were theoretically worst case scenario, stay home and make a pick, which again, doesn't feel likely. But, you know, now we've obviously seen a shift. But again, as these things kind of do, they've softened a little bit. It looks like Carter may be end up dodging the real legal bullets here. Obviously people lost their lives. So I don't want to be insensitive again. We're a draft betting show here. So again, I know what happened, terrible situation. And Carter obviously did something that I'm sure he regrets, hopefully.

How does it impact him, Conor, in terms of draft slots and in terms of the betting market? Yeah, this is tough because Bob McGinn came out today and he does a great job kind of surveying people and said like, oh, NFL teams don't really care about this. And that's, I wouldn't doubt that. I think to some extent, almost certainly true. Cause it looks like his legal issues are probably done at this point, but I think the concerns with most teams are, it's like, okay, well, am I picking this guy? You know, who's probably more talented or arguably more talented than Will Anderson, uh, at his position. Um, but like, he's not necessarily clean because there was other rumors beforehand about character issues there. Plus, if you look at the situation, I mean, it's not about what he did or didn't do. It's about like everyone there was drunk. Everyone there was driving. Like to me,

like from an outsider's perspective, that's probably going to cause a lot of red flags for a lot of teams. Uh, and so like, you know, I think that that is another issue that some teams might find now if they don't care about that, which again, they might not, the NFL is very much a profit oriented business. Um, you know, I think that he's very much in play to still be like a top five, six pick personally. I think that he, this probably makes him fall behind, uh, Tyree Wilson and Will Anderson. He's like right in that range. You can go anywhere after that. I hadn't falling all the way to 12, but I think that's too far. You know, in my latest mock, I think that he's probably more in that like six to 10 range. Um, that being said, you know, Tyree Wilson also came out talking about two Jones fractures in, uh, his, each of his feet.

So like if his medicals don't check out, I mean, Tyree Wilson could fall down again, but he got pumped up pretty early in draft season where like people knew about this. Um, you know, teams were saying that he, you know, multiple media members said that he was the next like Trayvon Walker kind of a centric. So I'm kind of holding onto that. I think Tyree Wilson is still ahead of Jalen Carter, but I think it's a little bit closer because I'm starting to think the Carter stuff just like doesn't matter as much anymore, unfortunately.

Yeah. Scott, what are your takeaways on the Carter movement and all that's going on there? Yeah, as soon as this information came out, and I did a little bit of digging into it, as soon as I saw it was misdemeanors, I didn't think there was going to be that much movement. There's some other things behind the scene with the interview process,

and you talk about the Bob McGinn article. It came out basically that he's not a guy that gives 100% effort on every play. He does loaf and get by on some of his physical attributes and things of that nature. But as far as the actual legal implications, he immediately left the combine, answered to things. It ended up being two misdemeanors. I don't want to downplay the real-life situation of what happened because, like you said, some lives were lost in it. But as far as the NFL concerns, this isn't a situation that's going to have him missing any significant amount of time, his rookie year or anything of that nature. And you've seen the NFL have much harsher incidents that happen and not be as concerned about it.

I think they charged him with reckless driving and racing or something of that nature, which he answered to two misdemeanors. I just don't think it's going to move his draft stock. The biggest issue with it, I think it does kind of solidify Will Anderson. Tyree Wilson is moving up the boards. I had him slotted at five to Seattle in my initial mock draft, and I think you could see him jump Jalen Carter, but I still think the biggest information out of this is going to be Will Anderson kind of being solidified as that first defensive player off the board. Yeah, I feel pretty good about that one too, regardless of what happens.

So, yeah, it's a good place to be. And again, part of why you want to jump into the Discord over at 444, because that is something that we, hey, we've been thirsty. We have a lot of like-minded folks that are dying for these markets to populate. And if Connor and I or Scott don't catch it first, there's a chance that one of our subscribers finds it pretty quickly after it populates. So, you know, we're able to get down on that 340 on Anderson

and feel like that's some warm closing line value in these last cold days of March to keep you warm until the draft gets here. Yeah. What are the other markets? Oh, go ahead, Connor. I was going to say, the last thing related to this market is that

something that I've been thinking about a lot is that I think there's a chance both the Bears and the Cardinals trade down, and this market becomes very sloppy then because I feel pretty confident that the bears, you know, would take one of these guys for the pretty confident that the Cardinals would take one of these kinds of defensive linemen, but Seattle, I have no idea. You know, we, they've been slotted that that way, but I think that there's not such a chance. They wouldn't Detroit at six. Would they take the first corner off the board? I mean, those are right now are

like 50 to one, you know, for Christian Gonzalez, maybe even way more for Devin Witherspoon if somehow he got taken there. There's like, I think just there's could be a lot happening here. So like, I don't want to lay the, I think Will Anderson is rightfully the favorite given the board we have now,

like by maybe it's a little short if the board were to stay where it's at right now, like if there's no trades. But overall, like I think that there's could trades um but uh overall like i think there's could be a lot of volatility if we see trades at three and at one i mean i'm here for for witherspoon at six to detroit you know this um i think that that's a fantastic pick i think he fits their scheme even a little bit better i know christian gonzalez went out and we're going to talk about the cornerback market here uh went out and had a great combine but also like

kind of double counting no one expected christian gonzalez to not go out and had a great combine, but also like kind of double counting. No one expected Christian Gonzalez to not go out and have a great combine. Have seen some scouts talk about their concerns about his ability to get involved in the running game defensively. Whereas that is not on Devin Witherspoon's tape. That is not in Devin Witherspoon's meetings, apparently. So three to one for Witherspoon to be the first cornerback off the board. Gonzalez is the favorite. FanDuel is the best current number, minus 195.

I think Witherspoon is the play here. I have not fired this market. But again, I think it's way too close. So this is, to me, reminiscent of a little bit of that initial market that we just talked about with Carter and Will Anderson, where I feel like it probably should be closer to a coin flip. I understand why Gonzalez should maybe be the favorite, but I don't think that there should be this large of a discrepancy. And it feels based off talking to some other folks that they kind of have pulled away. Even a couple of weeks ago, we were talking about this kind of being maybe a

three guy race. People think Joey Porter Jr. is probably more scheme-specific. He seems to be falling into maybe the teens in that range a little bit more than making a case to be a top-ten guy, which I think you can make the case for both Gonzalez and Witherspoon being. So, Scott, any thoughts on the cornerback market? Yeah, I think it's a two-horse race there between Gonzalez and Witherspoon for the first one to come off the board. I think a lot of it is going to be very scheme-specific.

You know, Gonzalez is going to be the bigger player there. Witherspoon's a little bit undersized, but, like, what you see on tape with him, he can do it all. I mean, he can do everything that you want out of this. Right now in the mock draft market, you know, you've got Gonzalez sitting around pick 8.5 and Witherspoon at like 13.3. So right now the mock draft market still has Gonzalez a little bit ahead. I personally lean a little bit more towards Gonzalez, but it's a little bit more of a personal preference than anything. But sitting here looking at these numbers,

it's not a play that I would look to make with Gonzalez at minus 195 and minus 220, respectively, on FanDuel and DraftKings. So I think for now, it's definitely something from a betting standpoint that you can stay away from as far as Gonzalez is concerned. Yeah, I would almost rather wait until i would almost rather wait until we get like a team specific market because i think witherspoon to the lions makes a ton of sense you know if that happens he will be the first corner drafted but you'll get much better odds than plus 300 so if you know like i would probably rather play that than play the plus 300 right now on first cornerback drafted because if we look at you know witherspoon played 75 plus man coverage

at uh illinois and the lions were like top six in man coverage rate in the nfl um so i think schematically not to mention super physical you know like very you know maybe not stature wise but just in his play style uh and so i think that could be a great fit i know noon's talked about before as well but other than that like i think most teams probably prefer christian gonzalez so like i think the odds are right it's just that maybe if the lions decide to go corner it wouldn't surprise me to be witherspoon so i don't know um i think that like i would probably just wait but i do think that you're right scott that gonzalez is probably the play just maybe a better odds if you can wait a little bit another one that we obviously are still waiting for we don't have yet is the number of corners in the first round um and you know just some other guys that are down

towards the bottom of this list that you can see here on the odd screen some of them went on had really good combines uh and that could be very interesting you know i think you know deontay banks probably out of maryland made himself some money with a really nice combine there's some teams i've heard some people talk, rave reviews for Clark Phillips. Again, probably not in the discussion for first overall, but like, again, Kelly Ringo was definitely during the college football season, kind of earmarked as one of the top corners on the board here.

Some people really like Cam Smith. Some people think Emmanuel Forbes has incredible ball skills and he has some pretty good highlights out there too. It's going to be very interesting to see what that number comes out at. How is Brian Branch classified? That's a big one too. We ran into that a little bit in years past with worried about safety corner. Feels like Branch could be a sneaky corner, even though he mostly played safety. Be interested to see what teams want him to do,

but I think that speaks to his versatility as a player. But again, like the tapes may be better than the measurables, and maybe he's falling in some spots too because he's not overly tall, not overly fast, didn't weigh in massively, but it looks like he's going to be classified as a corner. That safety market in a pretty poor safety class could be interesting depending on what that opens up at when those numbers come out. So overall, probably one of the deeper positions in this draft, which isn't necessarily a great draft overall from a depth standpoint.

So it's going to be interesting to watch. What would you set the over-under at? Like, I don't know, either of you guys have an idea? Like four and a half is the normal, but it looks like there's like six seven guys who could realistically go yeah for me looking at just who i have here in the top 50 and it's dependent upon how how you're going to classify a branch um i've got six cornerbacks um in the first round um with first round grades we're talking gonzalez witherspoon porter and then keeler ringo banks and then cam smith with phillips looking on the outside the other guys that you kind of look

at uh antonio johnson it's going to be classified as a safety so those are guys that i'm looking at i think that number might end up being right there around that five and a half the interesting part is again this is what it comes down to is trying to shape what happens at the back end of the first round. And it's tough because oftentimes, you know, we'll make those bets based off of those teams needs. And we often see a lot of movement and shifting in those late round picks too, which is tricky. Sometimes it's worked in our favor. Eric Stokes comes to mind where we need it. Yeah. I think it's going to be right around there, four and a half five and a half and the other thing you really have to start looking at when you're talking about some of these

dbs and betting some of these over and unders on on a positional like sense is you have to start looking at what other positions have the depth in the draft or lack of depth that's going to force you know a player that might be a second round type of talent, but if the depth's not there behind them, gets drafted a little bit early in the back end of the first round. Edge is another position that you can kind of look at in this draft that may have some players that might be second round grades get pushed into that first round because of the depth and because of the talent that's there on the back half and the back end of the first round. So I think when you start betting this defensive back number,

I think these defensive backs are going to be directly up against the talent of the defensive line and those edge positions there for those last five to six picks of the first round. That is a great, great segue transition to the tight end position because the tight end market is very interesting. Want to get your guys' thoughts on what you think that number comes out at in terms of first off the board, we have Michael Mayer out in Notre Dame, just a massive human being, huge hands.

I think people loved him in meetings, and he was able to play well throughout a lot of changes in Notre Dame, through a lot of inconsistent quarterback play and continue to be one of the stalwarts in their offense. Dalton Kincaid is I think pretty clearly the number two, but maybe not

because Darnell Washington out of Georgia went out and had himself a pretty wild combine. He's moved quite a bit. Again, this is a freakishly huge human being. 6'7", 264, 11-inch hands, which are like that's a lot of hands. I mean, like 9-inch hands are big.

11-inch hands are insane. They didn't ask him to do a lot in terms of catching the football and running routes at Georgia. Brock Bowers is a nice tight end prospect that they had there, and he's pretty much what everyone thinks about in terms of you know georgia tight ends but big guy 464 40 for a huge human being like that this is the sixth fastest among tight ends and then some of these guys are a little bit you know slighter in terms of their builds uh big bra jump big 20 yard shot like shuffle like i don't know he is a specimen um but again like he does he feel like that type of dude that's going to work his way into the first round i don't know it's tricky

what are your thoughts connor i think he goes first round i think i'm pretty confident that he goes towards like i mean i mean people are talking about him as a tight end one i don't think he gets that high but i I think anytime from the 20s, I think he's in play. I would want him to go to Detroit just so he can hold his hand up to Jared Goff and wrap his hands over them because Goff's got little baby hands.

But no, I think that there's an underrated tight end spot as well that when I started breaking it down a little bit, the Washington Commanders at 16 with hiring Eric Biennemi to be their offensive coordinator who who's you know leveraged obviously you know travis kelsey for a long time uh you know i think would be a pretty interesting spot for a team that i mean desperately needs playmakers essentially across the board so if they value the tight end position versus the wide receiver position a little bit more um you know they

have at least mclaurin they have a couple other guys that can make plays on there but i mean they need they need a lot of help across the board so i I had Dalton Kincaid slotted there, but really, I think Michael Mayer as well could very well be the first, you know, tight end off the board. I think right now it's probably a coin flip for those guys. I'm not at the point where I would be comfortable taking both and just like profiting the juice. But, you know, I think that it's, I mean, I don't think it's, it's the worst. The worst thing ever is taking a stab on either. If you get a kind of a good vibe of where one's going. Yeah, I think when you look at Washington, they've got Logan Thomas, who's battled injuries, you know, last couple of years.

I think he's he's a good cut candidate for Washington and Washington has been in play. Disclaimer, I'm a Washington Commanders fan. It's been a rough number of years being a Washington fan. They're a team that I keep up with quite a bit. The news around them and that's coming out is that they took a lot of interest at the Combine in interviewing a lot of these tight ends. They're a team that is going to have a lot of smoke going ends. So they're a team that, that is going to have a lot of, a lot of smoke going there. The,

the one of the rumors that, that I heard was that they're specifically looking for some offensive line play. Skowronski is the, the tackle out of Northwestern that a lot of people project more to a guard. I think they're looking for a player like that to go ahead and move down. The other big tackle there out of georgia like he had he's one of the players i think moved up the most after the combine because

i think a lot of people looked at what he did and started looking at you know his profile and how high he can move up but the word out of washington is that i think they're looking for offensive line if that doesn't fall to them they could be a team that moves back recoup some more draft picks to make up for the Carson Wentz issues that they had, giving up all of those picks, and then taking a guy like Kincaid or taking a guy like Meyer as well in the first round. I think you have a good argument for three of these guys to go

in the first round. Musgrave actually got cleared with some of the injury issues that he had. He's another guy that's moved up, but I don't think he's necessarily going to go there in that first round. But I think you have a good argument for three of these guys. That's the interesting thing, though, is that because – and there is depth, right? So you mentioned Musgrave.

Some people love Sam Laporta. Will Mallory out of Miami was pretty good. Zach Kuntz was like a freak testing. He broke a lot of tight end records and was up there as well, just doing some freakish things for tight ends. So I think there is depth at the position, which I think is one of the reasons to say, hey, if we want to address the position in the draft,

do we want to go out and just address in the first round, or we're going to have a couple of seconds or we have, you know, we can address a little later in the draft. There are some guys that aren't necessarily huge drop-offs in terms of what we're going to be asking them to do. Cause I also think this is another position that could be scheme fit to, you know, to Connor's point with like the B enemy thing. Like, yeah. Do you want to have a move tight end? Like a Kincaid,

like a Musgrave that fits a little bit more of the Travis Kelsey profile. That really wasn't Darnell Washington in college. And I think asking him to do that at the next level is going to be probably a pretty tall ask. But, you know, it'd be interesting to see what happens there. The Washington Commanders thing makes sense. You got to get a quarterback or you got to get a tight end for Lamar Jackson, right? Because that seems like a perfect fit made in heaven. You know, one of the interesting things about Darnell Washington and the combine, this goes to show how a lot of things work. You had a lot of clips get put up on Twitter of Darnell Washington high-pointing the fade routes that they were throwing there at the

combine. And then you had a whole group of people on Twitter that are, you know, your, your, your couch scouts, they're talking about how, how bad, how, how much his release looked like shit in, in the, in the, the drill itself. So, you know, it's going to be all over the place, just window dressing of what you see from the combine from multiple standpoints. Connor, you scoffed at me with my Lamar Jackson remarks. I'm not sure if the Washington commanders are strike me as a Lamar Jackson team generally, but you know, not,

I would love Lamar Jackson on any team that I root for, but you know, I think just that made me laugh, you know, just picturing Lamar and Washington reds or commander's uniform. Sorry. He doesn't have to move. Right. He stays right there. And I think the theory, you know, it's been floated a few times. think it was actually even like a prank uh the pft commentator that went down but i think there is something to the narrative of daniel snyder selling the team we know this was a really weird thing right so again not nfl draft stuff but just nfl stuff in relation to what matters here very very strange i don't care what you think the

lamar jackson non-exclusive tag came out and a handful of teams all in which need quarterbacks actively came out within 10 minutes to say we are not interested in there right like so again like collusion has been talked about a lot people are are mad about the Deshaun Watson deal, the guaranteed contract. No one would, it would be like perfect fitting Daniel Snyder, the big F you middle finger to the rest of the owners that are forcing him out essentially. Right. Cause he's not being forced out, but he kind of is being forced out. Like sell your team, just go ahead and double down and to throw one more guaranteed contract on the

board to Lamar Jackson that he's not going to have to pay for on his way out the door. I think it makes a lot of sense, but I'm just saying it'd be interesting to see. I know that if I was a commanders fan, I'd be hoping that my terrible owner both leaves and does this for us on the way out. But I think there's something there. The collusion stuff is kind of interesting. I mean, but it was the more that I thought about it the more it makes sense that so they they can't really make a move until the new league year starts so they have nothing to gain for saying that we're interested in a few days one two because it pisses off whoever your current starter is or whatever your situation is and like it gives the ravens you know or i get it like changes the

situation a little bit i think from you know like saying like if there's 10 teams interested, then, you know, I just think it changes the dynamic. Like there's no point of saying you're interested until the new league year starts. These guys are so selfish. They're going to bid on Lamar. They're going to someone's going to do it. I mean, these guys are trotting out like Kyle Trask and, you know, like a bunch of bums. Like there's like 15 teams were starting like literally terrible quarterback. And I get you can make the argument.

Oh, well, he hasn't been playing well. He's been injured a little bit. He wants a fully guaranteed contract. Like, yeah, but you'll make your money back.

If you got Lamar Jackson starting over Kyle Trask, you'll at least like maybe on the fringe of making the playoff. So, I mean, I don't know. I just think that like, like that whole thing, like,

yeah, of course you're gonna come on and say, Oh, we're not interested for a couple of days. And then behind the scenes, they came out so fast they had it ready to go they had it ready to go they're gonna say that's so weird that's so weird i to your i agree with you there's no incentive to come out and say we want him but like they had it ready to go like

i'm already on the phone with diana russini to tell her hey we're not interested like you know or like she calls me i just go and say the new league year hasn't started. We have no idea. Like we have a lot of things going on. Like they can give a non-answer, but like everyone came out proactively to be like, no, we're not doing it. We're not interested. It just seemed fishy. The other interesting part to this, if I'm not mistaken, Lamar doesn't have an agent. And so, you know, with a lot of this that's going on,

how much of it, and look, we know how the NFL works, especially during free agency. You have agents that put propaganda out there through their media sources and whatnot. Some of this could absolutely be some of these agents that are looking to maybe, Hey, can I slide in there and do a deal for Lamar? You know? I think you have that angle to it. And then you also just – I just don't understand how this market's moving, and I think you can place some of it squarely on Lamar's shoulders for not having an agent that's actively working for him. I know some of these guys look at these contracts and be like, look,

the contracts are already written. I just need a comparable contract to player X that's in the same market or maybe signed a deal last year. I just need to beat those numbers. But for Lamar's position and what he's sitting in, he needs an agent that's actively doing some damage control for this free agency and the way things are coming, especially if owners are out there colluding against them due to the fully the fully guaranteed contract, you know, hit back on, on Deshaun Watson. Yeah, no, I absolutely agree. I it's, it's so strange to think about. I, yeah, like there could be collusion in some senses there could not be, I mean, it wouldn't be the first time that there was, you know, essentially a quarterback was blackballed from the NFL. Um, you know, I think

that we've seen that before, but this is also a lot different situation because this is a 26 year old former MVP winner who's still got plenty of juice left in the tank. Not a one year flash in the pan guy who is on the wrong side of a thing that these guys only care about money. If it'll make them money, they're going to do it. And so at the end of the day, some of these options are very clear as to what's going to happen. For better or worse, just like that's, it is what it is. Last one that we still have to talk about is the offensive lineman market in terms of first overall pick looking at our odds table, you could see the Paris Johnson had himself a decent combine.

It was kind of, I think a couple of guys up there with, you know, Peter Skowronski as well. I think Scott mentioned Broderick Jones made himself some money moving up the draft board too in terms of how he measured. This is another market that I think is going to be very interesting because I look at some of the teams towards the bottom of the first. You can make a case for offensive line for a handful of them. So in terms of, Connor, I'll start with you. Who do you think, if there's a play at number one,

and really maybe what you think the over under for this market is going to be. Honestly, I think Paris Johnson is probably still the best look. It just seems like based on what we've seen from like sharp mocks that he's kind of a tier ahead a lot of these guys. But like Scott mentioned, Broderick Jones got a ton of hype after the combine. Darnell Wright has been in the drumbeat on Darnell Wright has been really wild um I know Daniel Jeremiah's been pumping him up he's shot up from like 40 to 1 to like 10 to 1 at this point 9 to 9 plus 9 50 a fan dual plus 750 at draft kings um I think that if you want to take a longer shot he's probably the one otherwise I think Paris Johnson it's probably the good look Skronsky's arms came up pretty short and that's like a big deal for, I mean,

a lot of teams, you know, I, I'm not an offensive line guru, but I just know that some teams care about that, that a lot. So in terms of an over under though, I think we're looking at,

you know, four and a half, five and a half, maybe because Osiris Torrance has been commonly mocked to the Jags at the end of the first round and a couple other teams. But I think he's kind of like on the fringe there. DeJuan Jones as well, like kind of been like a fringe first guy as well. So yeah, I would probably put it at five and a half with some juice, you know, one way. So I

don't know, Scott, any, any thoughts on that one? Yeah, look, going into the combine, the way things were kind of broke down to me from offensive line standpoint was that Skowronski probably plays, you know, the way you want and is the most NFL ready as far as his play. But he's also probably maxed out a little bit more higher towards the top of what his potential is. Broderick Jones was going to be the guy that had the highest ceiling as far as, like, potential and the way things went. And that Paris Johnson was the best mix of those two

so that he was probably the top overall offensive lineman. I think there's an outside shot for Broderick Jones to be the first offensive lineman taken. I think, you know, you have some things there, the way he tested and the way he looked there at the combine. I think you're going to have some people go back and look at his tape and see some things. And I think he has an outside shot.

And I really don't mind that plus 380 right there. So that's a play that I might go ahead and put a little bit on just a small sprinkle just to get some action on that. But you start looking at the teams that go ahead and are going to need offensive linemen, specifically Tennessee. And they're a team that I think if you start sniffing around some of the information that's out there, I think you'll be able to get a good feel for which person, which player they're leaning, whether that is Parrish Johnson, Broderick Jones, or whatnot.

So I kind of do like the Broderick Jones play a little bit, but I think Parrish Johnson right now is the favorite. You start looking at his wingspan, which a lot of GMs really care about for that left tackle position. And he came in with an 85 and an one eighth wingspan, which is 95th percentile for offensive linemen. So I think right now he's the leader in the clubhouse, but I don't mind the Broderick Jones numbers there. This is going to be another market where I think the total in the first round is really interesting because if you look at a variety of mocks that are out there you're skipping down like osiris torrence has been mocked pretty commonly in the mid to late first you'll see some mocks with

anton harrison up there pretty comfortably somebody's not even there uh they're you know dewan jones is another one that had a really nice combine, uh, with some of his measurables. There are some teams that just maybe need a center and some people really love John Michael Schmitz. Um, and you've seen some of him even late in the first round. So, you know, maybe he becomes, you know, kind of a teetering point in terms of what the number is. Some teams love, uh, Cody Munch, the kid from North Dakota State who has a little bit of that like Cole Strong in him

in terms of interior offensive lineman that is not necessarily sexy measurables, but the tape is pretty good. So he's actually a pretty interesting class. A lot of these guys are going mid to late first and mid second, but in terms of over under, it's going to be an interesting market to kind of see how that populates. So it's going to be, you know, any leans. I'll go to you, Scott, here in terms of what that number will be posted at.

Yeah, I think that that number is going to come out at four and a half is where I think when I start looking at who's kind of there right now, you're talking about Jones. I mean, Johnson, Skronsky, Jones and Torrance. You know, we talked about Michael Smith's kind of moving that. right now. You're talking about Jones. I mean, Johnson, Skronsky, Jones, and Torrance. We talked about Michael Smith's kind of moving that, but I think this line is going to come in at four and a half, and I think you're going to have, it's going to be a tight. It's really going to be a play where I don't think you get to six. It's either going to be five or it's going to be four, and

you're going to have to really keep your ears to, you know, to what's going on, you know, leading up to that draft. So that line that's specific over and under is a line that I would wait closer to draft day to go ahead and bet as far as the offensive linemen go. Because you're going to start hearing some things the closer you get that's going to give you a lot better information to go ahead and make that decision as what side of that to bet. But I think it's going to be tight at four and a half. Yeah, and betting these markets with the total over under of positions i mean can be really sweaty you mentioned it earlier but like we bet over one and a half safeties last year and then the last two picks of the first round lewis scene uh you know finally went and like yeah yeah exactly dax hill lewis scene who i like you have to feel like you're a really good ad so i felt like we took

over one and a half. I thought both of those guys were very much live to be middle to end of late round first round picks. So we kind of two outs. Thankfully, you know, both of them came in somehow. One of them, you know, I thought one of them went for sure, but you kind of like, you have to feel really good about a Osiris Torrance here to take over four and a half or DeJuan Johnson or Anton Harrison.

Like, I don't think it's enough to be like, well, I think one of them will go, you know, like I, there are multiple outs, but like, you got to feel good about it and some team matches as well. So that's kind of how I started building it. You know, they don't have those markets out yet, but I do think, you know, four and a half juice towards the over five and a half juice towards the under a pretty heavy would make a lot of sense. There's some interior defensive linemen that could be, you know, populating down in that range too. It's a position that there's some teams down there late,

Buffalo, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, New Orleans, that could use that position. That can change the calculus of it too. So it is definitely a sweaty market, but definitely one that is fun to bet on and one that I think Scott's point is correct. Those markets are going to populate. We're going to feel like firing into them right away unless the books make a mistake and hang it a full player lower than we're thinking.

You're best off to wait. Again, like the point I made at the top, there's some out there right now and I'm not going to tell you not to do that personally and this might surprise you i'm not a big gambler i don't love going to play craps um i don't want to go play um you know i like to bend the ponies but i don't like to like do random things like that i want to have an edge i want to feel like i have some knowledge and some information so i love to bet but i don't love to gamble and i feel like right now i feel like we're gambling a little bit. I feel like we have some information, but again, without being at free agency, without being at, you know, some of these things happening pro days, we are still a little bit of straight

gambling. And I think there are definitely ways to do this in a smarter way. Let the market take shape. Very different. ways to do this in a smarter way let the market take shape very different and I think our friend um you know VR Vegas refund and said this too like you know it it's not necessarily a situation we like to do you know to hear Connor and I touting a lot of like hey minus 200 on this player prop or we're going to take this money line because we love you know this side but I think information betting is a little different than you know sides and totals where I think information betting is a little different than, you know,

sides and totals where I'm a little bit more comfortable feeling like I have an edge with some information and I'm going to lay some juice in a spot. Maybe I wouldn't typically do that on a typical NFL bet. So be patient, proceed with caution, you know, have fun, do what you got to do, but like, wait, we're going to get more information. Yep. Yeah. I mean, that's because, and you mentioned it a little bit here, but a minus 200 bet that should be minus infinity is way more valuable than a plus 300 by that should be like minus one 10. Uh, you know, it's like one, when you know the answer, if you have the answer, just, just bet it, you know, like bet it, max it out. And we will have a lot of the answers or like a 99% lean on something that we're very, very confident, uh,

barring, you know, a crazy gas mask or something else happening on draft day. That's a good point. Scott, anything else for the folks before we wrap it up? Look, I think we're talking about a lot of the stuff and reactions that happen from the combine. I think something that's important is not to make too big of a lean one way or another from any information that's coming out of the combine. What I've typically seen over the last few years is the way it usually works is you have the

pre-combine hype, you have the post-combine hype. So that's the phase that we're in right now. A lot of the real information is going to start coming out here over this next week. So I'll be digging in deep to getting into some of the information that I have and some of the scoops and lines that I have open to get some information and just digging deep over this next week. I think that's where a lot of information and you're going to be able to start getting some of these leans that are going to make the whole big picture clear for some of the teams and some of the players that are going to go within the top 10 and some of these other positions. Pay attention to some of these beat writers. They're small nuggets that are mixed into things that don't seem like they're that big of a deal.

And just some of the player talk that you hear from GMs and coaches can very much sway exactly the information that you're looking for based upon how they describe some of these players. The last thing I'll say, look, we kind of talked about it a little bit. The two teams that I think you need to be paying attention to most right now is going to be Indianapolis and Carolina, and I think they're the two teams that are going to be the most in play to go ahead and move up.

Connor and I talked about it as far as that first overall pick goes. Is Chicago going to want to move all the way down with Carolina? I don't know if that's too deep, but I think Carolina is the most desperate team to move up and get a quarterback right now. And I think Indianapolis is going to be the other team that you're really looking at moving into that top spot. These other teams, when we're talking about Houston,

looking at a quarterback, it's just a matter of how are they grading out Stroud versus Bryce Young. Is there that big of a difference in what their overall grade is to make a decision to move up? I don't really see it with these top two guys, but for a team like Indianapolis and a team like Carolina, I think they're going

to have to make a move to go up and get that guy. Love it. Can't wait. We're going to be back next week to do it all again. Another week, more information. Again, listening to the audio version of the podcast. We appreciate it. Subscribe there.

Comments, reviews. We appreciate all that. We have a new YouTube channel, 444Bets. If you want to check out 444Football, lots of other great fantasy content. You can get more prospects. How does this relate to fantasy football? How does this relate to Dynasty League football? All of those things on the four for four football YouTube page for four bets. We'll continue to have more relevant betting content. A reminder again,

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